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000
FXUS64 KMOB 222349
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
23.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5-7 KFT AGL ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NE TONIGHT...THEN E TO SE AROUND 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OVER MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 222349
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
23.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5-7 KFT AGL ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NE TONIGHT...THEN E TO SE AROUND 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OVER MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 222349
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
23.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5-7 KFT AGL ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NE TONIGHT...THEN E TO SE AROUND 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OVER MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 222349
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
23.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5-7 KFT AGL ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NE TONIGHT...THEN E TO SE AROUND 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OVER MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 222349
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
23.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5-7 KFT AGL ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NE TONIGHT...THEN E TO SE AROUND 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OVER MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 222349
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
23.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5-7 KFT AGL ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NE TONIGHT...THEN E TO SE AROUND 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OVER MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 222349
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
23.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5-7 KFT AGL ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NE TONIGHT...THEN E TO SE AROUND 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OVER MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 222349
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
23.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5-7 KFT AGL ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NE TONIGHT...THEN E TO SE AROUND 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OVER MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 222337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 222337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 222337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 222337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 222337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 222319
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START THIS MORNING...SUNNY SKIES AND
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES NOTED AROUND THE
REGION THIS MORNING WERE 40 AT RUSSELLVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. HIGHS SO
FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH LIGHT NE WINDS.
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
CONTINUED ACROSS THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A SPLIT FLOW EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WAS PRODUCING
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A MODERATING
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION HELPED CREATE THE CHILLY CONDITIONS
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT `LIFTS`
NE TOWARD THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND...WHILE UPPER RIDGING FORMS OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND SE COAST. WHILE THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER BLOCK OVER
THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY BREAK DOWN...WITH ITS SOUTHERN LOW WEAKENING
AND MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CA/NV TO EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY.
ENERGY UNDER THE CA LOW WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA...AND RETURN
RAIN CHANCES ON SUN. BEFOREHAND...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL END THE
WEEK. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN AVERAGE NIGHT TEMPERATURE WISE IS
EXPECTED... WITH LOWS COOLING INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS FOR END OF THE WEEK WILL BECOME SE ALONG WITH RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WARMTH...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S. NORMAL
LOW/HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE 83 AND 61.

THE SE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AND GULF ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE AND
GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING SUNDAY. WITH THIS ISSUANCE...KEPT RAIN CHANCE OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS ON SUN...THEN ENDING IT IN THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY...AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE REALIZED. SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
AND GFS DO NOT NECESSARILY NOTE HIGH VALUES THAT HINT AT SEVERE
WEATHER. BUT HIGH CAPE AND PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS (RISING INTO THE 1.6
- 1.8 INCH RANGE) MON INTO THU...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS APPEAR THE PRIMARY THREAT POSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS.

PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WISE...STAYED WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES ON MON
(COULD GET NEAR LIKELY OVER NW AL). MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
ON TUE/WED COINCIDING WITH HIGHER DAYTIME INSTABILITIES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON THU/FRI AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REAMPLIFIES OFF OF
THE SE COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SOME BLOW OFF CI CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER ERN OK
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES SATURDAY AFTN...THERE COULD BE SOME SCT CU CLOUDS
ARND 5000 FT BY THE AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 222319
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START THIS MORNING...SUNNY SKIES AND
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES NOTED AROUND THE
REGION THIS MORNING WERE 40 AT RUSSELLVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. HIGHS SO
FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH LIGHT NE WINDS.
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
CONTINUED ACROSS THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A SPLIT FLOW EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WAS PRODUCING
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A MODERATING
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION HELPED CREATE THE CHILLY CONDITIONS
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT `LIFTS`
NE TOWARD THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND...WHILE UPPER RIDGING FORMS OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND SE COAST. WHILE THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER BLOCK OVER
THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY BREAK DOWN...WITH ITS SOUTHERN LOW WEAKENING
AND MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CA/NV TO EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY.
ENERGY UNDER THE CA LOW WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA...AND RETURN
RAIN CHANCES ON SUN. BEFOREHAND...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL END THE
WEEK. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN AVERAGE NIGHT TEMPERATURE WISE IS
EXPECTED... WITH LOWS COOLING INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS FOR END OF THE WEEK WILL BECOME SE ALONG WITH RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WARMTH...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S. NORMAL
LOW/HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE 83 AND 61.

THE SE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AND GULF ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE AND
GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING SUNDAY. WITH THIS ISSUANCE...KEPT RAIN CHANCE OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS ON SUN...THEN ENDING IT IN THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY...AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE REALIZED. SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
AND GFS DO NOT NECESSARILY NOTE HIGH VALUES THAT HINT AT SEVERE
WEATHER. BUT HIGH CAPE AND PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS (RISING INTO THE 1.6
- 1.8 INCH RANGE) MON INTO THU...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS APPEAR THE PRIMARY THREAT POSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS.

PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WISE...STAYED WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES ON MON
(COULD GET NEAR LIKELY OVER NW AL). MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
ON TUE/WED COINCIDING WITH HIGHER DAYTIME INSTABILITIES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON THU/FRI AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REAMPLIFIES OFF OF
THE SE COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SOME BLOW OFF CI CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER ERN OK
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES SATURDAY AFTN...THERE COULD BE SOME SCT CU CLOUDS
ARND 5000 FT BY THE AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 222319
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START THIS MORNING...SUNNY SKIES AND
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES NOTED AROUND THE
REGION THIS MORNING WERE 40 AT RUSSELLVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. HIGHS SO
FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH LIGHT NE WINDS.
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
CONTINUED ACROSS THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A SPLIT FLOW EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WAS PRODUCING
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A MODERATING
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION HELPED CREATE THE CHILLY CONDITIONS
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT `LIFTS`
NE TOWARD THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND...WHILE UPPER RIDGING FORMS OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND SE COAST. WHILE THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER BLOCK OVER
THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY BREAK DOWN...WITH ITS SOUTHERN LOW WEAKENING
AND MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CA/NV TO EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY.
ENERGY UNDER THE CA LOW WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA...AND RETURN
RAIN CHANCES ON SUN. BEFOREHAND...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL END THE
WEEK. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN AVERAGE NIGHT TEMPERATURE WISE IS
EXPECTED... WITH LOWS COOLING INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS FOR END OF THE WEEK WILL BECOME SE ALONG WITH RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WARMTH...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S. NORMAL
LOW/HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE 83 AND 61.

THE SE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AND GULF ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE AND
GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING SUNDAY. WITH THIS ISSUANCE...KEPT RAIN CHANCE OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS ON SUN...THEN ENDING IT IN THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY...AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE REALIZED. SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
AND GFS DO NOT NECESSARILY NOTE HIGH VALUES THAT HINT AT SEVERE
WEATHER. BUT HIGH CAPE AND PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS (RISING INTO THE 1.6
- 1.8 INCH RANGE) MON INTO THU...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS APPEAR THE PRIMARY THREAT POSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS.

PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WISE...STAYED WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES ON MON
(COULD GET NEAR LIKELY OVER NW AL). MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
ON TUE/WED COINCIDING WITH HIGHER DAYTIME INSTABILITIES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON THU/FRI AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REAMPLIFIES OFF OF
THE SE COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SOME BLOW OFF CI CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER ERN OK
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES SATURDAY AFTN...THERE COULD BE SOME SCT CU CLOUDS
ARND 5000 FT BY THE AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 222319
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START THIS MORNING...SUNNY SKIES AND
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES NOTED AROUND THE
REGION THIS MORNING WERE 40 AT RUSSELLVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. HIGHS SO
FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH LIGHT NE WINDS.
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
CONTINUED ACROSS THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A SPLIT FLOW EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WAS PRODUCING
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A MODERATING
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION HELPED CREATE THE CHILLY CONDITIONS
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT `LIFTS`
NE TOWARD THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND...WHILE UPPER RIDGING FORMS OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND SE COAST. WHILE THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER BLOCK OVER
THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY BREAK DOWN...WITH ITS SOUTHERN LOW WEAKENING
AND MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CA/NV TO EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY.
ENERGY UNDER THE CA LOW WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA...AND RETURN
RAIN CHANCES ON SUN. BEFOREHAND...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL END THE
WEEK. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN AVERAGE NIGHT TEMPERATURE WISE IS
EXPECTED... WITH LOWS COOLING INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS FOR END OF THE WEEK WILL BECOME SE ALONG WITH RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WARMTH...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S. NORMAL
LOW/HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE 83 AND 61.

THE SE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AND GULF ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE AND
GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING SUNDAY. WITH THIS ISSUANCE...KEPT RAIN CHANCE OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS ON SUN...THEN ENDING IT IN THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY...AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE REALIZED. SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
AND GFS DO NOT NECESSARILY NOTE HIGH VALUES THAT HINT AT SEVERE
WEATHER. BUT HIGH CAPE AND PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS (RISING INTO THE 1.6
- 1.8 INCH RANGE) MON INTO THU...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS APPEAR THE PRIMARY THREAT POSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS.

PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WISE...STAYED WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES ON MON
(COULD GET NEAR LIKELY OVER NW AL). MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
ON TUE/WED COINCIDING WITH HIGHER DAYTIME INSTABILITIES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON THU/FRI AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REAMPLIFIES OFF OF
THE SE COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SOME BLOW OFF CI CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER ERN OK
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES SATURDAY AFTN...THERE COULD BE SOME SCT CU CLOUDS
ARND 5000 FT BY THE AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 222041
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING
LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES
AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OFENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
22.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM LATE THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE EAST
AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST
OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE
GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET. BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY
CHOPPY. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

22/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 222041
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING
LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES
AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OFENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
22.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM LATE THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE EAST
AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST
OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE
GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET. BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY
CHOPPY. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

22/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 222041
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING
LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES
AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OFENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
22.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM LATE THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE EAST
AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST
OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE
GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET. BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY
CHOPPY. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

22/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 222041
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING
LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES
AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OFENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
22.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM LATE THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE EAST
AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST
OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE
GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET. BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY
CHOPPY. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

22/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 222041
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING
LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES
AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OFENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
22.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM LATE THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE EAST
AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST
OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE
GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET. BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY
CHOPPY. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

22/16




000
FXUS64 KHUN 222000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START THIS MORNING...SUNNY SKIES AND
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES NOTED AROUND THE
REGION THIS MORNING WERE 40 AT RUSSELLVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. HIGHS SO
FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH LIGHT NE WINDS.
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
CONTINUED ACROSS THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A SPLIT FLOW EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WAS PRODUCING
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A MODERATING
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION HELPED CREATE THE CHILLY CONDITIONS
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT `LIFTS`
NE TOWARD THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND...WHILE UPPER RIDGING FORMS OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND SE COAST. WHILE THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER BLOCK OVER
THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY BREAK DOWN...WITH ITS SOUTHERN LOW WEAKENING
AND MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CA/NV TO EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY.
ENERGY UNDER THE CA LOW WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA...AND RETURN
RAIN CHANCES ON SUN. BEFOREHAND...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL END THE
WEEK. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN AVERAGE NIGHT TEMPERATURE WISE IS
EXPECTED... WITH LOWS COOLING INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS FOR END OF THE WEEK WILL BECOME SE ALONG WITH RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WARMTH...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S. NORMAL
LOW/HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE 83 AND 61.

THE SE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AND GULF ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE AND
GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING SUNDAY. WITH THIS ISSUANCE...KEPT RAIN CHANCE OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS ON SUN...THEN ENDING IT IN THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY...AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE REALIZED. SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
AND GFS DO NOT NECESSARILY NOTE HIGH VALUES THAT HINT AT SEVERE
WEATHER. BUT HIGH CAPE AND PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS (RISING INTO THE 1.6
- 1.8 INCH RANGE) MON INTO THU...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS APPEAR THE PRIMARY THREAT POSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS.

PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WISE...STAYED WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES ON MON
(COULD GET NEAR LIKELY OVER NW AL). MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
ON TUE/WED COINCIDING WITH HIGHER DAYTIME INSTABILITIES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON THU/FRI AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REAMPLIFIES OFF OF
THE SE COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DID NOT
PUT ANY MENTION OF GUSTS IN THE TAFS DUE TO A LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHEN
THIS MIGHT OCCUR. BY SUNSET...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    53  84  63  86 /   0   0  20  20
SHOALS        53  83  63  85 /   0   0  20  30
VINEMONT      52  81  62  83 /   0   0  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  52  80  61  83 /   0   0  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   53  78  61  81 /   0   0  20  10
FORT PAYNE    51  83  59  82 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 222000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START THIS MORNING...SUNNY SKIES AND
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES NOTED AROUND THE
REGION THIS MORNING WERE 40 AT RUSSELLVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. HIGHS SO
FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH LIGHT NE WINDS.
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
CONTINUED ACROSS THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A SPLIT FLOW EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WAS PRODUCING
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A MODERATING
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION HELPED CREATE THE CHILLY CONDITIONS
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT `LIFTS`
NE TOWARD THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND...WHILE UPPER RIDGING FORMS OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND SE COAST. WHILE THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER BLOCK OVER
THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY BREAK DOWN...WITH ITS SOUTHERN LOW WEAKENING
AND MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CA/NV TO EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY.
ENERGY UNDER THE CA LOW WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA...AND RETURN
RAIN CHANCES ON SUN. BEFOREHAND...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL END THE
WEEK. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN AVERAGE NIGHT TEMPERATURE WISE IS
EXPECTED... WITH LOWS COOLING INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS FOR END OF THE WEEK WILL BECOME SE ALONG WITH RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WARMTH...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S. NORMAL
LOW/HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE 83 AND 61.

THE SE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AND GULF ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE AND
GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING SUNDAY. WITH THIS ISSUANCE...KEPT RAIN CHANCE OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS ON SUN...THEN ENDING IT IN THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY...AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE REALIZED. SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
AND GFS DO NOT NECESSARILY NOTE HIGH VALUES THAT HINT AT SEVERE
WEATHER. BUT HIGH CAPE AND PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS (RISING INTO THE 1.6
- 1.8 INCH RANGE) MON INTO THU...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS APPEAR THE PRIMARY THREAT POSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS.

PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WISE...STAYED WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES ON MON
(COULD GET NEAR LIKELY OVER NW AL). MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
ON TUE/WED COINCIDING WITH HIGHER DAYTIME INSTABILITIES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON THU/FRI AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REAMPLIFIES OFF OF
THE SE COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DID NOT
PUT ANY MENTION OF GUSTS IN THE TAFS DUE TO A LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHEN
THIS MIGHT OCCUR. BY SUNSET...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    53  84  63  86 /   0   0  20  20
SHOALS        53  83  63  85 /   0   0  20  30
VINEMONT      52  81  62  83 /   0   0  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  52  80  61  83 /   0   0  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   53  78  61  81 /   0   0  20  10
FORT PAYNE    51  83  59  82 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221935
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
235 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221935
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
235 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221935
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
235 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 221811 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
111 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AVIATION...
22.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM LATE THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MARINE UPDATE...SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECAST FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY IN BAYS. WIND AT LOCAL BUOYS INDICATES
IT WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.
77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET
OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE MODEL
BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 221811 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
111 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AVIATION...
22.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM LATE THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MARINE UPDATE...SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECAST FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY IN BAYS. WIND AT LOCAL BUOYS INDICATES
IT WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.
77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET
OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE MODEL
BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 221811 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
111 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AVIATION...
22.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM LATE THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MARINE UPDATE...SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECAST FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY IN BAYS. WIND AT LOCAL BUOYS INDICATES
IT WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.
77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET
OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE MODEL
BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 221811 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
111 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AVIATION...
22.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM LATE THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MARINE UPDATE...SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECAST FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY IN BAYS. WIND AT LOCAL BUOYS INDICATES
IT WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.
77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET
OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE MODEL
BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221731
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  83  60  84  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    55  83  62  85  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  85  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  86  66  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      56  84  65  87  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      59  83  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  87  65  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        59  86  65  87  69 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221731
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  83  60  84  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    55  83  62  85  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  85  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  86  66  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      56  84  65  87  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      59  83  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  87  65  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        59  86  65  87  69 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221731
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  83  60  84  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    55  83  62  85  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  85  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  86  66  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      56  84  65  87  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      59  83  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  87  65  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        59  86  65  87  69 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221731
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  83  60  84  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    55  83  62  85  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  85  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  86  66  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      56  84  65  87  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      59  83  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  87  65  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        59  86  65  87  69 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221731
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  83  60  84  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    55  83  62  85  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  85  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  86  66  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      56  84  65  87  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      59  83  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  87  65  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        59  86  65  87  69 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221731
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  83  60  84  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    55  83  62  85  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  85  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  86  66  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      56  84  65  87  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      59  83  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  87  65  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        59  86  65  87  69 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221725 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 958 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
WHERE LOWS DROPPED TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT...BUT COOL DAY TODAY. SOME CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODELS STILL PROG 850
MB TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14 DEGREES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNNY SKIES PROVIDING AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WINDS ALOFT AT 850 MB OF 25 KTS OVER
THE AREA...WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN MODELS PROG THE CURRENT WIND FIELD TO BE AT THAT LEVEL.
THEREFORE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH TODAY.

LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD MIDDAY...DUE TO
THE MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. DID NOT DROP THESE TOO
MUCH...SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EAST WILL BE
COMBATING THIS MIXING TO SOME EXTENT.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DID NOT
PUT ANY MENTION OF GUSTS IN THE TAFS DUE TO A LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHEN
THIS MIGHT OCCUR. BY SUNSET...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221725 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 958 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
WHERE LOWS DROPPED TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT...BUT COOL DAY TODAY. SOME CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODELS STILL PROG 850
MB TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14 DEGREES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNNY SKIES PROVIDING AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WINDS ALOFT AT 850 MB OF 25 KTS OVER
THE AREA...WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN MODELS PROG THE CURRENT WIND FIELD TO BE AT THAT LEVEL.
THEREFORE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH TODAY.

LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD MIDDAY...DUE TO
THE MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. DID NOT DROP THESE TOO
MUCH...SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EAST WILL BE
COMBATING THIS MIXING TO SOME EXTENT.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DID NOT
PUT ANY MENTION OF GUSTS IN THE TAFS DUE TO A LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHEN
THIS MIGHT OCCUR. BY SUNSET...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221725 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 958 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
WHERE LOWS DROPPED TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT...BUT COOL DAY TODAY. SOME CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODELS STILL PROG 850
MB TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14 DEGREES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNNY SKIES PROVIDING AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WINDS ALOFT AT 850 MB OF 25 KTS OVER
THE AREA...WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN MODELS PROG THE CURRENT WIND FIELD TO BE AT THAT LEVEL.
THEREFORE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH TODAY.

LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD MIDDAY...DUE TO
THE MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. DID NOT DROP THESE TOO
MUCH...SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EAST WILL BE
COMBATING THIS MIXING TO SOME EXTENT.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DID NOT
PUT ANY MENTION OF GUSTS IN THE TAFS DUE TO A LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHEN
THIS MIGHT OCCUR. BY SUNSET...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221725 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 958 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
WHERE LOWS DROPPED TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT...BUT COOL DAY TODAY. SOME CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODELS STILL PROG 850
MB TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14 DEGREES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNNY SKIES PROVIDING AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WINDS ALOFT AT 850 MB OF 25 KTS OVER
THE AREA...WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN MODELS PROG THE CURRENT WIND FIELD TO BE AT THAT LEVEL.
THEREFORE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH TODAY.

LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD MIDDAY...DUE TO
THE MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. DID NOT DROP THESE TOO
MUCH...SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EAST WILL BE
COMBATING THIS MIXING TO SOME EXTENT.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DID NOT
PUT ANY MENTION OF GUSTS IN THE TAFS DUE TO A LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHEN
THIS MIGHT OCCUR. BY SUNSET...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221612
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    77  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      76  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      78  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  80  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        80  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221612
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    77  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      76  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      78  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  80  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        80  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221612
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    77  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      76  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      78  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  80  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        80  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221612
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    77  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      76  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      78  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  80  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        80  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221458 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
958 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS AND INCREASE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
WHERE LOWS DROPPED TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT...BUT COOL DAY TODAY. SOME CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODELS STILL PROG 850
MB TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14 DEGREES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNNY SKIES PROVIDING AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WINDS ALOFT AT 850 MB OF 25 KTS OVER
THE AREA...WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN MODELS PROG THE CURRENT WIND FIELD TO BE AT THAT LEVEL.
THEREFORE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH TODAY.

LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD MIDDAY...DUE TO
THE MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. DID NOT DROP THESE TOO
MUCH...SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EAST WILL BE
COMBATING THIS MIXING TO SOME EXTENT.


KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10KTS BETWEEN
14-15Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 06Z TONIGHT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221458 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
958 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS AND INCREASE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
WHERE LOWS DROPPED TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT...BUT COOL DAY TODAY. SOME CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODELS STILL PROG 850
MB TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14 DEGREES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNNY SKIES PROVIDING AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WINDS ALOFT AT 850 MB OF 25 KTS OVER
THE AREA...WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN MODELS PROG THE CURRENT WIND FIELD TO BE AT THAT LEVEL.
THEREFORE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH TODAY.

LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD MIDDAY...DUE TO
THE MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. DID NOT DROP THESE TOO
MUCH...SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EAST WILL BE
COMBATING THIS MIXING TO SOME EXTENT.


KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10KTS BETWEEN
14-15Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 06Z TONIGHT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221458 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
958 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS AND INCREASE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
WHERE LOWS DROPPED TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT...BUT COOL DAY TODAY. SOME CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODELS STILL PROG 850
MB TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14 DEGREES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNNY SKIES PROVIDING AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WINDS ALOFT AT 850 MB OF 25 KTS OVER
THE AREA...WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN MODELS PROG THE CURRENT WIND FIELD TO BE AT THAT LEVEL.
THEREFORE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH TODAY.

LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD MIDDAY...DUE TO
THE MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. DID NOT DROP THESE TOO
MUCH...SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EAST WILL BE
COMBATING THIS MIXING TO SOME EXTENT.


KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10KTS BETWEEN
14-15Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 06Z TONIGHT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221458 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
958 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS AND INCREASE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
WHERE LOWS DROPPED TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT...BUT COOL DAY TODAY. SOME CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODELS STILL PROG 850
MB TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14 DEGREES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNNY SKIES PROVIDING AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WINDS ALOFT AT 850 MB OF 25 KTS OVER
THE AREA...WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN MODELS PROG THE CURRENT WIND FIELD TO BE AT THAT LEVEL.
THEREFORE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH TODAY.

LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD MIDDAY...DUE TO
THE MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. DID NOT DROP THESE TOO
MUCH...SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EAST WILL BE
COMBATING THIS MIXING TO SOME EXTENT.


KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10KTS BETWEEN
14-15Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 06Z TONIGHT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 221144 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.MARINE UPDATE...SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECAST FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY IN BAYS. WIND AT LOCAL BUOYS INDICATES
IT WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.
77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

AVIATION...
22.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. /77

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING
6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE
MODEL BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 221144 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.MARINE UPDATE...SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECAST FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY IN BAYS. WIND AT LOCAL BUOYS INDICATES
IT WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.
77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

AVIATION...
22.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. /77

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING
6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE
MODEL BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 221144 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.MARINE UPDATE...SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECAST FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY IN BAYS. WIND AT LOCAL BUOYS INDICATES
IT WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.
77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

AVIATION...
22.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. /77

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING
6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE
MODEL BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 221144 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.MARINE UPDATE...SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECAST FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY IN BAYS. WIND AT LOCAL BUOYS INDICATES
IT WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.
77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

AVIATION...
22.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. /77

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING
6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE
MODEL BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221118
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
FINALLY GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ON
SATURDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE TEMPS
DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME INTO
SUNDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE INCREASE
OF PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.20 INCH RANGE AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SHRA/TSRA MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR TSRA FOR MONDAY AND WILL ADJUST POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY
TUESDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES ON EARLY MONDAY TO BETWEEN 1.6
AND 1.8 INCHES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BY 00Z FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL GO ALONG WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10KTS BETWEEN
14-15Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 06Z TONIGHT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221118
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
FINALLY GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ON
SATURDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE TEMPS
DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME INTO
SUNDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE INCREASE
OF PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.20 INCH RANGE AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SHRA/TSRA MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR TSRA FOR MONDAY AND WILL ADJUST POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY
TUESDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES ON EARLY MONDAY TO BETWEEN 1.6
AND 1.8 INCHES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BY 00Z FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL GO ALONG WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10KTS BETWEEN
14-15Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 06Z TONIGHT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221118
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
FINALLY GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ON
SATURDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE TEMPS
DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME INTO
SUNDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE INCREASE
OF PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.20 INCH RANGE AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SHRA/TSRA MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR TSRA FOR MONDAY AND WILL ADJUST POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY
TUESDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES ON EARLY MONDAY TO BETWEEN 1.6
AND 1.8 INCHES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BY 00Z FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL GO ALONG WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10KTS BETWEEN
14-15Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 06Z TONIGHT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221118
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
FINALLY GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ON
SATURDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE TEMPS
DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME INTO
SUNDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE INCREASE
OF PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.20 INCH RANGE AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SHRA/TSRA MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR TSRA FOR MONDAY AND WILL ADJUST POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY
TUESDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES ON EARLY MONDAY TO BETWEEN 1.6
AND 1.8 INCHES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BY 00Z FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL GO ALONG WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10KTS BETWEEN
14-15Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 06Z TONIGHT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221118
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
FINALLY GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ON
SATURDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE TEMPS
DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME INTO
SUNDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE INCREASE
OF PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.20 INCH RANGE AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SHRA/TSRA MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR TSRA FOR MONDAY AND WILL ADJUST POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY
TUESDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES ON EARLY MONDAY TO BETWEEN 1.6
AND 1.8 INCHES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BY 00Z FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL GO ALONG WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10KTS BETWEEN
14-15Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 06Z TONIGHT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221118
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
FINALLY GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ON
SATURDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE TEMPS
DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME INTO
SUNDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE INCREASE
OF PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.20 INCH RANGE AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SHRA/TSRA MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR TSRA FOR MONDAY AND WILL ADJUST POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY
TUESDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES ON EARLY MONDAY TO BETWEEN 1.6
AND 1.8 INCHES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BY 00Z FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL GO ALONG WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10KTS BETWEEN
14-15Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 06Z TONIGHT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221115
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    78  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  78  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      78  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      79  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  82  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        82  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221115
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    78  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  78  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      78  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      79  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  82  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        82  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221115
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    78  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  78  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      78  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      79  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  82  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        82  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221115
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    78  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  78  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      78  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      79  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  82  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        82  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 220945
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
22.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING
6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE
MODEL BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 220945
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
22.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING
6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE
MODEL BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 220831
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS ARE STILL ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE UP AND
DOWN...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL BE BACK TO VFR WITH A NORTH
WIND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    78  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  78  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      78  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      79  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  82  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        82  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 220831
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS ARE STILL ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE UP AND
DOWN...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL BE BACK TO VFR WITH A NORTH
WIND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    78  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  78  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      78  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      79  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  82  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        82  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220821
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
FINALLY GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ON
SATURDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE TEMPS
DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME INTO
SUNDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE INCREASE
OF PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.20 INCH RANGE AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SHRA/TSRA MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR TSRA FOR MONDAY AND WILL ADJUST POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY
TUESDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES ON EARLY MONDAY TO BETWEEN 1.6
AND 1.8 INCHES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BY 00Z FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL GO ALONG WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW OBSERVATIONS IN MS/TN ARE REPORTING FOG AND WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR
MAINLY THE KMSL TERMINAL BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT KMSL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PATCHY FOG. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NE AT 5KTS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASE TO 10KTS AND
STAY THERE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    77  54  85  61 /   0  10  10  10
SHOALS        76  54  83  62 /   0  10  10  10
VINEMONT      76  54  82  62 /   0  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  71  52  82  59 /   0  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   74  53  80  61 /   0  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    73  50  80  59 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220821
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
FINALLY GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ON
SATURDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE TEMPS
DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME INTO
SUNDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE INCREASE
OF PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.20 INCH RANGE AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SHRA/TSRA MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR TSRA FOR MONDAY AND WILL ADJUST POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY
TUESDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES ON EARLY MONDAY TO BETWEEN 1.6
AND 1.8 INCHES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BY 00Z FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL GO ALONG WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW OBSERVATIONS IN MS/TN ARE REPORTING FOG AND WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR
MAINLY THE KMSL TERMINAL BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT KMSL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PATCHY FOG. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NE AT 5KTS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASE TO 10KTS AND
STAY THERE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    77  54  85  61 /   0  10  10  10
SHOALS        76  54  83  62 /   0  10  10  10
VINEMONT      76  54  82  62 /   0  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  71  52  82  59 /   0  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   74  53  80  61 /   0  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    73  50  80  59 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 220545
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 906 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE CLEARING
LINES SEEMS TO BE SNEAKING INTO NW ALABAMA AS OF 02Z. CLOUDS ARE
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. THIS
GOES WELL WITH THE UPDATED TEMP TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW OBSERVATIONS IN MS/TN ARE REPORTING FOG AND WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR
MAINLY THE KMSL TERMINAL BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT KMSL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PATCHY FOG. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NE AT 5KTS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASE TO 10KTS AND
STAY THERE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220545
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 906 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE CLEARING
LINES SEEMS TO BE SNEAKING INTO NW ALABAMA AS OF 02Z. CLOUDS ARE
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. THIS
GOES WELL WITH THE UPDATED TEMP TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW OBSERVATIONS IN MS/TN ARE REPORTING FOG AND WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR
MAINLY THE KMSL TERMINAL BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT KMSL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PATCHY FOG. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NE AT 5KTS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASE TO 10KTS AND
STAY THERE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 220545
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 906 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE CLEARING
LINES SEEMS TO BE SNEAKING INTO NW ALABAMA AS OF 02Z. CLOUDS ARE
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. THIS
GOES WELL WITH THE UPDATED TEMP TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW OBSERVATIONS IN MS/TN ARE REPORTING FOG AND WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR
MAINLY THE KMSL TERMINAL BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT KMSL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PATCHY FOG. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NE AT 5KTS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASE TO 10KTS AND
STAY THERE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220545
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 906 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE CLEARING
LINES SEEMS TO BE SNEAKING INTO NW ALABAMA AS OF 02Z. CLOUDS ARE
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. THIS
GOES WELL WITH THE UPDATED TEMP TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW OBSERVATIONS IN MS/TN ARE REPORTING FOG AND WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR
MAINLY THE KMSL TERMINAL BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT KMSL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PATCHY FOG. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NE AT 5KTS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASE TO 10KTS AND
STAY THERE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220545
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 906 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE CLEARING
LINES SEEMS TO BE SNEAKING INTO NW ALABAMA AS OF 02Z. CLOUDS ARE
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. THIS
GOES WELL WITH THE UPDATED TEMP TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW OBSERVATIONS IN MS/TN ARE REPORTING FOG AND WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR
MAINLY THE KMSL TERMINAL BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT KMSL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PATCHY FOG. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NE AT 5KTS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASE TO 10KTS AND
STAY THERE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220545
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 906 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE CLEARING
LINES SEEMS TO BE SNEAKING INTO NW ALABAMA AS OF 02Z. CLOUDS ARE
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. THIS
GOES WELL WITH THE UPDATED TEMP TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW OBSERVATIONS IN MS/TN ARE REPORTING FOG AND WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR
MAINLY THE KMSL TERMINAL BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT KMSL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PATCHY FOG. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NE AT 5KTS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASE TO 10KTS AND
STAY THERE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 220448 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
22.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  20  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  20  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  20  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  10  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  10  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  10  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  20  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 220447
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS ARE STILL ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE UP AND
DOWN...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL BE BACK TO VFR WITH A NORTH
WIND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 220447
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS ARE STILL ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE UP AND
DOWN...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL BE BACK TO VFR WITH A NORTH
WIND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 220447
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS ARE STILL ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE UP AND
DOWN...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL BE BACK TO VFR WITH A NORTH
WIND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 220447
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS ARE STILL ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE UP AND
DOWN...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL BE BACK TO VFR WITH A NORTH
WIND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 220447
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS ARE STILL ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE UP AND
DOWN...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL BE BACK TO VFR WITH A NORTH
WIND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 220240 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
940 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 220240 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
940 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220206 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
906 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE CLEARING
LINES SEEMS TO BE SNEAKING INTO NW ALABAMA AS OF 02Z. CLOUDS ARE
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. THIS
GOES WELL WITH THE UPDATED TEMP TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... A BAND OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES ATTM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE CREATING VFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE 18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE THICK STRATUS DECK EXTENDS WELL
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT
WARM UP MUCH MORE FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. HIRES FORECAST MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES POSSIBLE REACHING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WITH THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220206 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
906 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE CLEARING
LINES SEEMS TO BE SNEAKING INTO NW ALABAMA AS OF 02Z. CLOUDS ARE
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. THIS
GOES WELL WITH THE UPDATED TEMP TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... A BAND OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES ATTM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE CREATING VFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE 18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE THICK STRATUS DECK EXTENDS WELL
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT
WARM UP MUCH MORE FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. HIRES FORECAST MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES POSSIBLE REACHING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WITH THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 220145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
845 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  77  53  83  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    51  78  55  84  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  51  77  57  85  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  51  79  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      51  78  57  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      55  79  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  81  60  88  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        57  82  59  87  65 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 220145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
845 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  77  53  83  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    51  78  55  84  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  51  77  57  85  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  51  79  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      51  78  57  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      55  79  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  81  60  88  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        57  82  59  87  65 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 220145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
845 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  77  53  83  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    51  78  55  84  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  51  77  57  85  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  51  79  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      51  78  57  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      55  79  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  81  60  88  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        57  82  59  87  65 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 220145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
845 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  77  53  83  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    51  78  55  84  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  51  77  57  85  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  51  79  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      51  78  57  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      55  79  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  81  60  88  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        57  82  59  87  65 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 212340 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



000
FXUS64 KMOB 212340 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KMOB 212340 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



000
FXUS64 KMOB 212340 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KHUN 212325
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE 18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE THICK STRATUS DECK EXTENDS WELL
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT
WARM UP MUCH MORE FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. HIRES FORECAST MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES POSSIBLE REACHING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WITH THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... A BAND OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES ATTM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE CREATING VFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 212325
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE 18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE THICK STRATUS DECK EXTENDS WELL
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT
WARM UP MUCH MORE FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. HIRES FORECAST MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES POSSIBLE REACHING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WITH THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... A BAND OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES ATTM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE CREATING VFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 212325
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE 18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE THICK STRATUS DECK EXTENDS WELL
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT
WARM UP MUCH MORE FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. HIRES FORECAST MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES POSSIBLE REACHING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WITH THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... A BAND OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES ATTM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE CREATING VFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 212325
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE 18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE THICK STRATUS DECK EXTENDS WELL
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT
WARM UP MUCH MORE FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. HIRES FORECAST MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES POSSIBLE REACHING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WITH THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... A BAND OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES ATTM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE CREATING VFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 212325
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE 18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE THICK STRATUS DECK EXTENDS WELL
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT
WARM UP MUCH MORE FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. HIRES FORECAST MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES POSSIBLE REACHING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WITH THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... A BAND OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES ATTM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE CREATING VFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 212325
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE 18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE THICK STRATUS DECK EXTENDS WELL
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT
WARM UP MUCH MORE FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. HIRES FORECAST MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES POSSIBLE REACHING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WITH THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... A BAND OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES ATTM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE CREATING VFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 212308
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 212308
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 212308
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 212308
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 212308
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 212308
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 212103
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
21.18Z ISSUANCE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...POSSIBLE SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE AT 3 TO
5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
OR HIGHER WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



000
FXUS64 KBMX 212000
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATOCUMULUS WILL AFFECT PLENTY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL INCREASE THE TIME THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT MGM/TOI WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF THE CLOUDS BUT
ALSO SHOULD BE JUST INTO VFR. THE REMAINING NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL HAVE BOUTS IF MVFR CLOUDINESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

OVERALL...ADDED SEVERAL HOURS ONTO THE MVFR CLOUDS AND KEPT THE
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS IN THE 18 TO 23 KT RANGE.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  77  53  83  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    51  78  55  84  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  51  77  57  85  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  51  79  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      51  78  57  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      55  79  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  81  60  88  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        57  82  59  87  65 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 212000
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATOCUMULUS WILL AFFECT PLENTY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL INCREASE THE TIME THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT MGM/TOI WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF THE CLOUDS BUT
ALSO SHOULD BE JUST INTO VFR. THE REMAINING NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL HAVE BOUTS IF MVFR CLOUDINESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

OVERALL...ADDED SEVERAL HOURS ONTO THE MVFR CLOUDS AND KEPT THE
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS IN THE 18 TO 23 KT RANGE.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  77  53  83  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    51  78  55  84  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  51  77  57  85  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  51  79  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      51  78  57  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      55  79  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  81  60  88  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        57  82  59  87  65 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 211905
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE 18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE THICK STRATUS DECK EXTENDS WELL
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT
WARM UP MUCH MORE FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. HIRES FORECAST MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES POSSIBLE REACHING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WITH THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA CONTINUED TO SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD
BASES OVERALL WERE RISING SLIGHTLY MAINLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR
CLOUD BASES SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
GENERALLY VFR WEATHER AFTERWARD. DID INCLUDE MVFR VIS FOR LATE NIGHT
FOG...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL. NNW WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5KT AFTER DUSK...THEN SE
5-10KT AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  77  54  84 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        46  76  54  82 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      46  76  54  81 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  44  71  52  81 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   48  74  53  79 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    45  73  50  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 211905
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE 18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE THICK STRATUS DECK EXTENDS WELL
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT
WARM UP MUCH MORE FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. HIRES FORECAST MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES POSSIBLE REACHING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WITH THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA CONTINUED TO SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD
BASES OVERALL WERE RISING SLIGHTLY MAINLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR
CLOUD BASES SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
GENERALLY VFR WEATHER AFTERWARD. DID INCLUDE MVFR VIS FOR LATE NIGHT
FOG...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL. NNW WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5KT AFTER DUSK...THEN SE
5-10KT AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  77  54  84 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        46  76  54  82 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      46  76  54  81 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  44  71  52  81 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   48  74  53  79 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    45  73  50  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 211905
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE 18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE THICK STRATUS DECK EXTENDS WELL
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT
WARM UP MUCH MORE FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. HIRES FORECAST MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES POSSIBLE REACHING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WITH THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA CONTINUED TO SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD
BASES OVERALL WERE RISING SLIGHTLY MAINLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR
CLOUD BASES SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
GENERALLY VFR WEATHER AFTERWARD. DID INCLUDE MVFR VIS FOR LATE NIGHT
FOG...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL. NNW WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5KT AFTER DUSK...THEN SE
5-10KT AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  77  54  84 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        46  76  54  82 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      46  76  54  81 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  44  71  52  81 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   48  74  53  79 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    45  73  50  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 211841 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
141 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY TO
TWEAK RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE CWFA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS WELL TO THE NORTH NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
WHILE MOST AREAS OVER LOWER INLAND SOUTHEAST MS...COASTAL AL AND
NWFL NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS. ALSO NOTED WAS TO POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE
HIGHER POP AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...DIME TO
NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UP
TO ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOCALLY. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CREATE
MINOR STREET FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS INCLUDING MOBILE AL ALONG WITH
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...21.18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...POSSIBLE SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
MAINLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND LOWER END MOBILE BAY INCLUDING
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF PACAGOULA. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  83  67  87  72 /  60  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   67  83  70  86  74 /  40  10  05  10  10
DESTIN      68  82  72  84  76 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   60  83  63  90  71 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  60  82  63  88  69 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      60  81  62  88  70 /  20  10  05  10  05
CRESTVIEW   63  85  65  89  72 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 211841 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
141 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY TO
TWEAK RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE CWFA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS WELL TO THE NORTH NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
WHILE MOST AREAS OVER LOWER INLAND SOUTHEAST MS...COASTAL AL AND
NWFL NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS. ALSO NOTED WAS TO POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE
HIGHER POP AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...DIME TO
NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UP
TO ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOCALLY. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CREATE
MINOR STREET FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS INCLUDING MOBILE AL ALONG WITH
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...21.18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...POSSIBLE SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
MAINLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND LOWER END MOBILE BAY INCLUDING
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF PACAGOULA. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  83  67  87  72 /  60  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   67  83  70  86  74 /  40  10  05  10  10
DESTIN      68  82  72  84  76 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   60  83  63  90  71 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  60  82  63  88  69 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      60  81  62  88  70 /  20  10  05  10  05
CRESTVIEW   63  85  65  89  72 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 211841 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
141 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY TO
TWEAK RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE CWFA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS WELL TO THE NORTH NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
WHILE MOST AREAS OVER LOWER INLAND SOUTHEAST MS...COASTAL AL AND
NWFL NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS. ALSO NOTED WAS TO POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE
HIGHER POP AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...DIME TO
NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UP
TO ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOCALLY. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CREATE
MINOR STREET FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS INCLUDING MOBILE AL ALONG WITH
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...21.18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...POSSIBLE SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
MAINLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND LOWER END MOBILE BAY INCLUDING
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF PACAGOULA. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  83  67  87  72 /  60  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   67  83  70  86  74 /  40  10  05  10  10
DESTIN      68  82  72  84  76 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   60  83  63  90  71 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  60  82  63  88  69 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      60  81  62  88  70 /  20  10  05  10  05
CRESTVIEW   63  85  65  89  72 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 211841 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
141 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY TO
TWEAK RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE CWFA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS WELL TO THE NORTH NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
WHILE MOST AREAS OVER LOWER INLAND SOUTHEAST MS...COASTAL AL AND
NWFL NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS. ALSO NOTED WAS TO POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE
HIGHER POP AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...DIME TO
NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UP
TO ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOCALLY. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CREATE
MINOR STREET FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS INCLUDING MOBILE AL ALONG WITH
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...21.18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...POSSIBLE SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
MAINLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND LOWER END MOBILE BAY INCLUDING
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF PACAGOULA. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  83  67  87  72 /  60  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   67  83  70  86  74 /  40  10  05  10  10
DESTIN      68  82  72  84  76 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   60  83  63  90  71 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  60  82  63  88  69 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      60  81  62  88  70 /  20  10  05  10  05
CRESTVIEW   63  85  65  89  72 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211740 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1023 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
ABUNDANT AREA OF LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET IS IN
PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. THIS
CLOUD COVER HAS FORMED ALONG A FRONT BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED DRIZZLE AROUND
DAYBREAK IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS ENDED AS CLOUD COVER HAS
LIFTED ABOVE 1000 FEET.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB). MESOSCALE MODELS DO SHOW
THIS MOISTURE THINNING VERY SLOWLY WITH TIME...BUT SOME MODELS DO NOT
SCATTER IT OUT. THAT IS THE TRICKY QUESTION OF THE DAY. MODELS DO
SHOW STRONG DOWNGLIDE OCCURRING AFTER ~ 1 OR 2 PM TODAY AND VERY DRY
AIR JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS DOES SUPPORT CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY
SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS.

AT THIS POINT...THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON MUCH OF THE DAY
(PROBABLY ALL DAY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE). THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SCATTERING OR MAYBE EVEN CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (AFTER 3 PM OR SO). SO ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON GUIDANCE...BELIEVE MOST CLEARING...WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER.

THIS ALL WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES GRADIENT TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE
BIT OF LATE AFTERNOON HEATING IF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZE...EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THERE TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT GET ABOVE 62 TO 64 DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA CONTINUED TO SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD
BASES OVERALL WERE RISING SLIGHTLY MAINLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR
CLOUD BASES SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
GENERALLY VFR WEATHER AFTERWARD. DID INCLUDE MVFR VIS FOR LATE NIGHT
FOG...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL. NNW WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5KT AFTER DUSK...THEN SE
5-10KT AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211740 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1023 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
ABUNDANT AREA OF LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET IS IN
PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. THIS
CLOUD COVER HAS FORMED ALONG A FRONT BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED DRIZZLE AROUND
DAYBREAK IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS ENDED AS CLOUD COVER HAS
LIFTED ABOVE 1000 FEET.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB). MESOSCALE MODELS DO SHOW
THIS MOISTURE THINNING VERY SLOWLY WITH TIME...BUT SOME MODELS DO NOT
SCATTER IT OUT. THAT IS THE TRICKY QUESTION OF THE DAY. MODELS DO
SHOW STRONG DOWNGLIDE OCCURRING AFTER ~ 1 OR 2 PM TODAY AND VERY DRY
AIR JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS DOES SUPPORT CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY
SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS.

AT THIS POINT...THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON MUCH OF THE DAY
(PROBABLY ALL DAY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE). THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SCATTERING OR MAYBE EVEN CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (AFTER 3 PM OR SO). SO ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON GUIDANCE...BELIEVE MOST CLEARING...WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER.

THIS ALL WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES GRADIENT TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE
BIT OF LATE AFTERNOON HEATING IF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZE...EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THERE TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT GET ABOVE 62 TO 64 DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA CONTINUED TO SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD
BASES OVERALL WERE RISING SLIGHTLY MAINLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR
CLOUD BASES SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
GENERALLY VFR WEATHER AFTERWARD. DID INCLUDE MVFR VIS FOR LATE NIGHT
FOG...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL. NNW WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5KT AFTER DUSK...THEN SE
5-10KT AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 211731
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION.

POST FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERED A LARGE CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO TEXAS. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE THESE
CLOUDS ERODING AND GONE BY AROUND 1PM...BUT THINK THESE CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON LONGER. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION AROUND THE EDGES
OF THE CLOUDS...BUT A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP
THE REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. UNDOUBTEDLY THERE WILL BE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WE WILL MOST LIKELY END UP WITH SOME
AREA COVERED MUCH LONGER WHILE ALL OTHER LOCATIONS BEGIN CLEARING
LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THESE CLOUDS...ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CLOUD ZONE NORTH. SOME
MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 MPH IS POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATOCUMULUS WILL AFFECT PLENTY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL INCREASE THE TIME THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT MGM/TOI WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF THE CLOUDS BUT
ALSO SHOULD BE JUST INTO VFR. THE REMAINING NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL HAVE BOUTS IF MVFR CLOUDINESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

OVERALL...ADDED SEVERAL HOURS ONTO THE MVFR CLOUDS AND KEPT THE
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS IN THE 18 TO 23 KT RANGE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  49  77  54  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  51  78  56  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  72  52  78  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  73  53  79  59  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      74  52  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      78  55  80  60  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  81  57  82  60  88 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        86  57  83  59  88 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211523 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1023 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT AREA OF LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET IS IN
PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. THIS
CLOUD COVER HAS FORMED ALONG A FRONT BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED DRIZZLE AROUND
DAYBREAK IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS ENDED AS CLOUD COVER HAS
LIFTED ABOVE 1000 FEET.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB). MESOSCALE MODELS DO SHOW
THIS MOISTURE THINNING VERY SLOWLY WITH TIME...BUT SOME MODELS DO NOT
SCATTER IT OUT. THAT IS THE TRICKY QUESTION OF THE DAY. MODELS DO
SHOW STRONG DOWNGLIDE OCCURRING AFTER ~ 1 OR 2 PM TODAY AND VERY DRY
AIR JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS DOES SUPPORT CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY
SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS.

AT THIS POINT...THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON MUCH OF THE DAY
(PROBABLY ALL DAY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE). THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SCATTERING OR MAYBE EVEN CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (AFTER 3 PM OR SO). SO ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON GUIDANCE...BELIEVE MOST CLEARING...WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER.

THIS ALL WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES GRADIENT TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE
BIT OF LATE AFTERNOON HEATING IF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZE...EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THERE TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT GET ABOVE 62 TO 64 DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
THE LOW STRATUS DECK RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 18-19Z WHEN CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND DROP TO 5KTS OR LESS BY 06Z TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAIN YESTERDAY...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT THIS OUT
OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
EITHER TERMINAL.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211523 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1023 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT AREA OF LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET IS IN
PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. THIS
CLOUD COVER HAS FORMED ALONG A FRONT BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED DRIZZLE AROUND
DAYBREAK IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS ENDED AS CLOUD COVER HAS
LIFTED ABOVE 1000 FEET.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB). MESOSCALE MODELS DO SHOW
THIS MOISTURE THINNING VERY SLOWLY WITH TIME...BUT SOME MODELS DO NOT
SCATTER IT OUT. THAT IS THE TRICKY QUESTION OF THE DAY. MODELS DO
SHOW STRONG DOWNGLIDE OCCURRING AFTER ~ 1 OR 2 PM TODAY AND VERY DRY
AIR JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS DOES SUPPORT CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY
SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS.

AT THIS POINT...THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON MUCH OF THE DAY
(PROBABLY ALL DAY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE). THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SCATTERING OR MAYBE EVEN CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (AFTER 3 PM OR SO). SO ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON GUIDANCE...BELIEVE MOST CLEARING...WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER.

THIS ALL WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES GRADIENT TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE
BIT OF LATE AFTERNOON HEATING IF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZE...EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THERE TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT GET ABOVE 62 TO 64 DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
THE LOW STRATUS DECK RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 18-19Z WHEN CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND DROP TO 5KTS OR LESS BY 06Z TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAIN YESTERDAY...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT THIS OUT
OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
EITHER TERMINAL.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211523 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1023 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT AREA OF LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET IS IN
PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. THIS
CLOUD COVER HAS FORMED ALONG A FRONT BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED DRIZZLE AROUND
DAYBREAK IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS ENDED AS CLOUD COVER HAS
LIFTED ABOVE 1000 FEET.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB). MESOSCALE MODELS DO SHOW
THIS MOISTURE THINNING VERY SLOWLY WITH TIME...BUT SOME MODELS DO NOT
SCATTER IT OUT. THAT IS THE TRICKY QUESTION OF THE DAY. MODELS DO
SHOW STRONG DOWNGLIDE OCCURRING AFTER ~ 1 OR 2 PM TODAY AND VERY DRY
AIR JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS DOES SUPPORT CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY
SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS.

AT THIS POINT...THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON MUCH OF THE DAY
(PROBABLY ALL DAY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE). THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SCATTERING OR MAYBE EVEN CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (AFTER 3 PM OR SO). SO ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON GUIDANCE...BELIEVE MOST CLEARING...WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER.

THIS ALL WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES GRADIENT TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE
BIT OF LATE AFTERNOON HEATING IF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZE...EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THERE TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT GET ABOVE 62 TO 64 DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
THE LOW STRATUS DECK RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 18-19Z WHEN CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND DROP TO 5KTS OR LESS BY 06Z TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAIN YESTERDAY...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT THIS OUT
OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
EITHER TERMINAL.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211523 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1023 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT AREA OF LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET IS IN
PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. THIS
CLOUD COVER HAS FORMED ALONG A FRONT BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED DRIZZLE AROUND
DAYBREAK IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS ENDED AS CLOUD COVER HAS
LIFTED ABOVE 1000 FEET.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB). MESOSCALE MODELS DO SHOW
THIS MOISTURE THINNING VERY SLOWLY WITH TIME...BUT SOME MODELS DO NOT
SCATTER IT OUT. THAT IS THE TRICKY QUESTION OF THE DAY. MODELS DO
SHOW STRONG DOWNGLIDE OCCURRING AFTER ~ 1 OR 2 PM TODAY AND VERY DRY
AIR JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS DOES SUPPORT CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY
SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS.

AT THIS POINT...THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON MUCH OF THE DAY
(PROBABLY ALL DAY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE). THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SCATTERING OR MAYBE EVEN CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (AFTER 3 PM OR SO). SO ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON GUIDANCE...BELIEVE MOST CLEARING...WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER.

THIS ALL WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES GRADIENT TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE
BIT OF LATE AFTERNOON HEATING IF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZE...EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THERE TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT GET ABOVE 62 TO 64 DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
THE LOW STRATUS DECK RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 18-19Z WHEN CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND DROP TO 5KTS OR LESS BY 06Z TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAIN YESTERDAY...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT THIS OUT
OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
EITHER TERMINAL.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211126
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 542 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
FEATURE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS
MEXICO...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHS ENCOMPASSING THE PACIFIC COAST AND
EASTERN CANADA. A WEAK 500-MB VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RESULTANT
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA THIS MORNING...WITH RELATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS SUBSIDENT MOTIONS ALOFT RESULT IN GRADUAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VAST REGION OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS UPSTREAM FROM THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...AND WE ARE
ANTICIPATING CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL SCATTERING OCCURS FROM SW-TO-NE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND A
MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND...WITH VALUES ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER
60S. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. LOWS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S JUST PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. DESPITE LOW DEWPOINTS...THIS REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER AND
THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A MID-LEVEL VORT IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
RESULTANT PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS
LATITUDINALLY-ORIENTED TROUGH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SMALL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SPLIT FROM THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A FURTHER INCREASE IN MAINLY MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC PROGS INDICATE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN ASCENT AROUND THE 300-310K LEVEL AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES...HIGH CPD VALUES AND THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE RESERVOIR OF
DRY AIR BELOW 10-15 KFT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...A SILENT 10 POP WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS
PERIOD...AS SOME VIRGA OR SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER
VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
ON TROUGH ON FRIDAY...EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
DESERTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE
TROUGH AND FORCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD...
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
FURTHER HEIGHT RISES ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RISING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY RISE WITHIN CENTER OF STRONG SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
ANTICYCLONE WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
STRENGTHEN SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THIS TREND ENHANCED FURTHER BY PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LEAD TO A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO EVIDENCE
OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UVM IN OUTPUT FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM.
THUS...WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A VERY LOW CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEST OF I-65 POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. GRADUAL MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN ACROSS NW HALF OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASE IN PWAT TO 1.5-1.7
INCHES TO BRING A SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THREAT FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING TUESDAY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE EVENT COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
AS ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WELL-DEFINED WAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION -- AND POPS FOR THIS PERIOD MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED TO AT LEAST THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
DEEP SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG
ALSO SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE --
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
THE LOW STRATUS DECK RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 18-19Z WHEN CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND DROP TO 5KTS OR LESS BY 06Z TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAIN YESTERDAY...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT THIS OUT
OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
EITHER TERMINAL.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211126
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 542 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
FEATURE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS
MEXICO...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHS ENCOMPASSING THE PACIFIC COAST AND
EASTERN CANADA. A WEAK 500-MB VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RESULTANT
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA THIS MORNING...WITH RELATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS SUBSIDENT MOTIONS ALOFT RESULT IN GRADUAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VAST REGION OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS UPSTREAM FROM THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...AND WE ARE
ANTICIPATING CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL SCATTERING OCCURS FROM SW-TO-NE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND A
MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND...WITH VALUES ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER
60S. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. LOWS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S JUST PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. DESPITE LOW DEWPOINTS...THIS REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER AND
THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A MID-LEVEL VORT IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
RESULTANT PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS
LATITUDINALLY-ORIENTED TROUGH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SMALL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SPLIT FROM THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A FURTHER INCREASE IN MAINLY MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC PROGS INDICATE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN ASCENT AROUND THE 300-310K LEVEL AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES...HIGH CPD VALUES AND THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE RESERVOIR OF
DRY AIR BELOW 10-15 KFT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...A SILENT 10 POP WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS
PERIOD...AS SOME VIRGA OR SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER
VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
ON TROUGH ON FRIDAY...EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
DESERTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE
TROUGH AND FORCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD...
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
FURTHER HEIGHT RISES ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RISING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY RISE WITHIN CENTER OF STRONG SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
ANTICYCLONE WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
STRENGTHEN SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THIS TREND ENHANCED FURTHER BY PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LEAD TO A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO EVIDENCE
OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UVM IN OUTPUT FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM.
THUS...WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A VERY LOW CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEST OF I-65 POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. GRADUAL MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN ACROSS NW HALF OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASE IN PWAT TO 1.5-1.7
INCHES TO BRING A SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THREAT FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING TUESDAY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE EVENT COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
AS ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WELL-DEFINED WAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION -- AND POPS FOR THIS PERIOD MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED TO AT LEAST THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
DEEP SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG
ALSO SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE --
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
THE LOW STRATUS DECK RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 18-19Z WHEN CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND DROP TO 5KTS OR LESS BY 06Z TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAIN YESTERDAY...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT THIS OUT
OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
EITHER TERMINAL.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 211120
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE FRONT STRETCHING
GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BASED ON THE
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON SURFACE OBS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH. WE`LL SEE A WIDE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HALEYVILLE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 70
DEGREES...WHILE EUFAULA COULD RISE CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE THE COOLER
AIR REALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO BARBOUR COUNTY. I`VE REMOVED ALL
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH JUST TOO MUCH DRY AIR
MOVING IN TO PREVENT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WE`LL
SEE VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...OR PERHAPS EVEN "CRISP"
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH. 40S WILL BE LIKELY FOR
THOSE SPOTS...WHILE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THAT`S
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BUT NOTHING OVERLY EXTREME.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING EACH DAY. WE`LL BE BACK IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO SCOUR OUT THE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
BE "SANDWICHED" IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WHICH WILL
ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH LIKE
WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD AT TIMES BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF
EACH SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH. WE`LL ALSO BE STUCK IN A VERY
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PWATS OF
1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED BY LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITHIN MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...SO ENJOY THE DRY AND
PLEASANT HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE YOU
CAN!

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL JUST A FEW RESTRICTED CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW...TCL BR IS THE
BIGGEST ONE. THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST THAT WILL TAKE OVER AT ALL NORTHERN SITES BY 14Z AND
POSSIBLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHERN SITES AFTER 15Z. VFR RETURNS
AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTER 3Z CONDITIONS REALLY IMPROVE.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  49  77  54  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    76  51  78  56  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  75  52  78  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  78  53  79  59  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  52  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      81  55  80  60  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  84  57  82  60  88 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        85  57  83  59  88 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 211120
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE FRONT STRETCHING
GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BASED ON THE
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON SURFACE OBS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH. WE`LL SEE A WIDE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HALEYVILLE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 70
DEGREES...WHILE EUFAULA COULD RISE CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE THE COOLER
AIR REALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO BARBOUR COUNTY. I`VE REMOVED ALL
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH JUST TOO MUCH DRY AIR
MOVING IN TO PREVENT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WE`LL
SEE VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...OR PERHAPS EVEN "CRISP"
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH. 40S WILL BE LIKELY FOR
THOSE SPOTS...WHILE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THAT`S
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BUT NOTHING OVERLY EXTREME.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING EACH DAY. WE`LL BE BACK IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO SCOUR OUT THE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
BE "SANDWICHED" IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WHICH WILL
ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH LIKE
WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD AT TIMES BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF
EACH SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH. WE`LL ALSO BE STUCK IN A VERY
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PWATS OF
1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED BY LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITHIN MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...SO ENJOY THE DRY AND
PLEASANT HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE YOU
CAN!

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL JUST A FEW RESTRICTED CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW...TCL BR IS THE
BIGGEST ONE. THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST THAT WILL TAKE OVER AT ALL NORTHERN SITES BY 14Z AND
POSSIBLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHERN SITES AFTER 15Z. VFR RETURNS
AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTER 3Z CONDITIONS REALLY IMPROVE.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  49  77  54  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    76  51  78  56  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  75  52  78  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  78  53  79  59  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  52  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      81  55  80  60  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  84  57  82  60  88 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        85  57  83  59  88 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 211109 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
506 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A HIGH
OVER THE BOOT-HEEL OF MISSOURI AND A LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GEORGES BANK. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXTENDING AS A TROUGH OUT OF THAT
LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST A SERIES
OF SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THAT FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG IT LATE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING CONCENTRATED
MORE OVER THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. THIS
AFTERNOON WETBULB ZERO IS PREDICTED A BIT ABOVE 10000 FEET AND CAPE
AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.5 INCHES. WEAK
DYNAMICS MEAN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

MUCH OF OUR RAINFALL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE OUTPUTS OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS...VIS-A-VIS THE HRRR AND
WRF...BECAUSE OF THE DETAIL THEY PROVIDE AND FAVORABLE PERFORMANCE
THEY HAVE SHOWN RECENTLY. WE CONSIDER A THIRD OF AN INCH BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL AND A POP OF 50% ABOUT AS HIGH AS WE ARE WILLING TO
GO FOR THE MOMENT....BUT UPDATES MAY BE FORTHCOMING LATER TODAY IF
THE RADAR PICTURE MORE CLEARLY WARRANTS IT.

BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THE EVAPOTRANSPORATION PROCESS
TO OCCUR IN THESE PLACES AS WELL AS EVAPORATION FROM FOLIAGE TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS. SATURATION WOULD THEN OCCUR WHEN RADIATION
COOLING...LIGHT WIND...AND A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION FORMS INCREASING
THE RISK OF LOWERED VISIBILITY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...GENERALLY COOLER TO THE
NORTH AND MAXIMIZING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING TO NEAR 60 OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. /77

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN
PROVINCES/NORTHEAST US DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENING (BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL...WEST TO EAST) OVER THE SOUTHERN
US. SURFACE FRONT EASES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...PRETTY FAR SOUTH
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
FRIDAY JUST A BIT CLOSER TO BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BRINGS IN
A DEEPER DRIER AIRMASS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 80S...NOT TOO FAR OFF PACE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SHARPENS AS IT HEADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING FROM THE GULF...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW
FOR SATURDAY. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SUNDAY. WITH AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROF...EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH TROF...TAPPING
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD ON SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXTENDING INTO MEMORIAL DAY AND BEYOND
AS WELL. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHERE DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS BETWEEN A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS...WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR MEMORIAL DAY FAMILY GET TOGETHERS...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES...BRINGING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR. OVER
THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S LATE IN THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
21.12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION EXCEPT ALONG A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT
AFTER 21.16Z OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY 21.18Z. CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE
ACTIVE AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 22.00Z. WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND CONCENTRATE MORE OVER
THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND
BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN WAS
IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GWW AND THE WNA WAVE MODELS AS
WELL AS THE BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  66  83  67  87 /  50  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   88  67  83  70  86 /  50  20  10  05  10
DESTIN      87  68  82  72  84 /  40  20  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   87  60  83  63  90 /  40  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  86  60  82  63  88 /  40  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      85  60  81  62  88 /  30  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   91  63  85  65  89 /  40  20  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 211109 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
506 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A HIGH
OVER THE BOOT-HEEL OF MISSOURI AND A LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GEORGES BANK. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXTENDING AS A TROUGH OUT OF THAT
LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST A SERIES
OF SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THAT FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG IT LATE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING CONCENTRATED
MORE OVER THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. THIS
AFTERNOON WETBULB ZERO IS PREDICTED A BIT ABOVE 10000 FEET AND CAPE
AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.5 INCHES. WEAK
DYNAMICS MEAN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

MUCH OF OUR RAINFALL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE OUTPUTS OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS...VIS-A-VIS THE HRRR AND
WRF...BECAUSE OF THE DETAIL THEY PROVIDE AND FAVORABLE PERFORMANCE
THEY HAVE SHOWN RECENTLY. WE CONSIDER A THIRD OF AN INCH BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL AND A POP OF 50% ABOUT AS HIGH AS WE ARE WILLING TO
GO FOR THE MOMENT....BUT UPDATES MAY BE FORTHCOMING LATER TODAY IF
THE RADAR PICTURE MORE CLEARLY WARRANTS IT.

BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THE EVAPOTRANSPORATION PROCESS
TO OCCUR IN THESE PLACES AS WELL AS EVAPORATION FROM FOLIAGE TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS. SATURATION WOULD THEN OCCUR WHEN RADIATION
COOLING...LIGHT WIND...AND A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION FORMS INCREASING
THE RISK OF LOWERED VISIBILITY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...GENERALLY COOLER TO THE
NORTH AND MAXIMIZING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING TO NEAR 60 OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. /77

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN
PROVINCES/NORTHEAST US DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENING (BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL...WEST TO EAST) OVER THE SOUTHERN
US. SURFACE FRONT EASES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...PRETTY FAR SOUTH
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
FRIDAY JUST A BIT CLOSER TO BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BRINGS IN
A DEEPER DRIER AIRMASS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 80S...NOT TOO FAR OFF PACE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SHARPENS AS IT HEADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING FROM THE GULF...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW
FOR SATURDAY. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SUNDAY. WITH AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROF...EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH TROF...TAPPING
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD ON SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXTENDING INTO MEMORIAL DAY AND BEYOND
AS WELL. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHERE DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS BETWEEN A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS...WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR MEMORIAL DAY FAMILY GET TOGETHERS...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES...BRINGING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR. OVER
THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S LATE IN THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
21.12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION EXCEPT ALONG A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT
AFTER 21.16Z OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY 21.18Z. CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE
ACTIVE AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 22.00Z. WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND CONCENTRATE MORE OVER
THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND
BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN WAS
IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GWW AND THE WNA WAVE MODELS AS
WELL AS THE BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  66  83  67  87 /  50  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   88  67  83  70  86 /  50  20  10  05  10
DESTIN      87  68  82  72  84 /  40  20  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   87  60  83  63  90 /  40  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  86  60  82  63  88 /  40  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      85  60  81  62  88 /  30  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   91  63  85  65  89 /  40  20  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 211042
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
542 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
FEATURE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS
MEXICO...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHS ENCOMPASSING THE PACIFIC COAST AND
EASTERN CANADA. A WEAK 500-MB VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RESULTANT
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA THIS MORNING...WITH RELATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS SUBSIDENT MOTIONS ALOFT RESULT IN GRADUAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VAST REGION OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS UPSTREAM FROM THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...AND WE ARE
ANTICIPATING CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL SCATTERING OCCURS FROM SW-TO-NE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND A
MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND...WITH VALUES ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER
60S. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. LOWS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S JUST PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. DESPITE LOW DEWPOINTS...THIS REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER AND
THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A MID-LEVEL VORT IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
RESULTANT PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS
LATITUDINALLY-ORIENTED TROUGH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SMALL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SPLIT FROM THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A FURTHER INCREASE IN MAINLY MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC PROGS INDICATE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN ASCENT AROUND THE 300-310K LEVEL AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES...HIGH CPD VALUES AND THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE RESERVOIR OF
DRY AIR BELOW 10-15 KFT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...A SILENT 10 POP WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS
PERIOD...AS SOME VIRGA OR SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER
VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
ON TROUGH ON FRIDAY...EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
DESERTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE
TROUGH AND FORCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD...
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
FURTHER HEIGHT RISES ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RISING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY RISE WITHIN CENTER OF STRONG SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
ANTICYCLONE WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
STRENGTHEN SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THIS TREND ENHANCED FURTHER BY PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LEAD TO A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO EVIDENCE
OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UVM IN OUTPUT FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM.
THUS...WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A VERY LOW CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEST OF I-65 POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. GRADUAL MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN ACROSS NW HALF OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASE IN PWAT TO 1.5-1.7
INCHES TO BRING A SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THREAT FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING TUESDAY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE EVENT COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
AS ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WELL-DEFINED WAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION -- AND POPS FOR THIS PERIOD MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED TO AT LEAST THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
DEEP SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG
ALSO SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE --
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1219 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL UNTIL
21/18Z WITH NW WINDS UP TO 10KTS LIKELY UNTIL 21/15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN BY 21/18Z-21/19Z.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  48  77  54 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        67  48  78  53 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      68  47  76  54 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  63  44  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   68  50  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    69  44  76  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211042
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
542 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
FEATURE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS
MEXICO...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHS ENCOMPASSING THE PACIFIC COAST AND
EASTERN CANADA. A WEAK 500-MB VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RESULTANT
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA THIS MORNING...WITH RELATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS SUBSIDENT MOTIONS ALOFT RESULT IN GRADUAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VAST REGION OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS UPSTREAM FROM THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...AND WE ARE
ANTICIPATING CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL SCATTERING OCCURS FROM SW-TO-NE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND A
MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND...WITH VALUES ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER
60S. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. LOWS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S JUST PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. DESPITE LOW DEWPOINTS...THIS REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER AND
THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A MID-LEVEL VORT IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
RESULTANT PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS
LATITUDINALLY-ORIENTED TROUGH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SMALL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SPLIT FROM THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A FURTHER INCREASE IN MAINLY MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC PROGS INDICATE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN ASCENT AROUND THE 300-310K LEVEL AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES...HIGH CPD VALUES AND THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE RESERVOIR OF
DRY AIR BELOW 10-15 KFT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...A SILENT 10 POP WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS
PERIOD...AS SOME VIRGA OR SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER
VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
ON TROUGH ON FRIDAY...EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
DESERTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE
TROUGH AND FORCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD...
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
FURTHER HEIGHT RISES ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RISING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY RISE WITHIN CENTER OF STRONG SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
ANTICYCLONE WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
STRENGTHEN SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THIS TREND ENHANCED FURTHER BY PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LEAD TO A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO EVIDENCE
OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UVM IN OUTPUT FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM.
THUS...WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A VERY LOW CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEST OF I-65 POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. GRADUAL MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN ACROSS NW HALF OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASE IN PWAT TO 1.5-1.7
INCHES TO BRING A SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THREAT FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING TUESDAY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE EVENT COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
AS ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WELL-DEFINED WAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION -- AND POPS FOR THIS PERIOD MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED TO AT LEAST THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
DEEP SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG
ALSO SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE --
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1219 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL UNTIL
21/18Z WITH NW WINDS UP TO 10KTS LIKELY UNTIL 21/15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN BY 21/18Z-21/19Z.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  48  77  54 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        67  48  78  53 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      68  47  76  54 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  63  44  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   68  50  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    69  44  76  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 211006
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
506 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A HIGH
OVER THE BOOT-HEEL OF MISSOURI AND A LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GEORGES BANK. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXTENDING AS A TROUGH OUT OF THAT
LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST A SERIES
OF SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THAT FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG IT LATE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING CONCENTRATED
MORE OVER THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THE EVAPOTRANSPORATION PROCESS
TO OCCUR IN THESE PLACES AS WELL AS EVAPORATION FROM FOLIAGE TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS. SATURATION WOULD THEN OCCUR WHEN RADIATION
COOLING...LIGHT WIND...AND A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION FORMS INCREASING
THE RISK OF LOWERED VISIBILITY. MUCH OF OUR RAINFALL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE OUTPUTS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION NON HYDROSTATIC
MODELS...VIS-A-VIS THE HRRR AND WRF...BECAUSE OF THE DETAIL THEY
PROVIDE AND FAVORABLE PERFORMANCE THEY HAVE SHOWN RECENTLY. WE
CONSIDER A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH QPF AND A POP 50% AS HIGH AS WE
ARE WILLING TO OFFER FOR THE MOMENT....BUT UPDATES MAY BE
FORTHCOMING LATER TODAY ONCE THE RADAR PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...GENERALLY COOLER TO THE
NORTH AND MAXIMIZING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING TO NEAR 60 OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. /77

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN
PROVINCES/NORTHEAST US DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENING (BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL...WEST TO EAST) OVER THE SOUTHERN
US. SURFACE FRONT EASES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...PRETTY FAR SOUTH
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
FRIDAY JUST A BIT CLOSER TO BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BRINGS IN
A DEEPER DRIER AIRMASS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 80S...NOT TOO FAR OFF PACE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SHARPENS AS IT HEADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING FROM THE GULF...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW
FOR SATURDAY. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SUNDAY. WITH AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROF...EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH TROF...TAPPING
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD ON SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXTENDING INTO MEMORIAL DAY AND BEYOND
AS WELL. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHERE DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS BETWEEN A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS...WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR MEMORIAL DAY FAMILY GET TOGETHERS...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES...BRINGING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR. OVER
THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S LATE IN THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
21.12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION EXCEPT ALONG A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT
AFTER 21.16Z OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY 21.18Z. CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE
ACTIVE AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 22.00Z. WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND CONCENTRATE MORE OVER
THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND
BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN WAS
IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GWW AND THE WNA WAVE MODELS AS
WELL AS THE BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  66  83  67  87 /  50  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   88  67  83  70  86 /  50  20  10  05  10
DESTIN      87  68  82  72  84 /  40  20  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   87  60  83  63  90 /  40  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  86  60  82  63  88 /  40  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      85  60  81  62  88 /  30  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   91  63  85  65  89 /  40  20  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 211006
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
506 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A HIGH
OVER THE BOOT-HEEL OF MISSOURI AND A LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GEORGES BANK. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXTENDING AS A TROUGH OUT OF THAT
LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST A SERIES
OF SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THAT FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG IT LATE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING CONCENTRATED
MORE OVER THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THE EVAPOTRANSPORATION PROCESS
TO OCCUR IN THESE PLACES AS WELL AS EVAPORATION FROM FOLIAGE TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS. SATURATION WOULD THEN OCCUR WHEN RADIATION
COOLING...LIGHT WIND...AND A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION FORMS INCREASING
THE RISK OF LOWERED VISIBILITY. MUCH OF OUR RAINFALL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE OUTPUTS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION NON HYDROSTATIC
MODELS...VIS-A-VIS THE HRRR AND WRF...BECAUSE OF THE DETAIL THEY
PROVIDE AND FAVORABLE PERFORMANCE THEY HAVE SHOWN RECENTLY. WE
CONSIDER A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH QPF AND A POP 50% AS HIGH AS WE
ARE WILLING TO OFFER FOR THE MOMENT....BUT UPDATES MAY BE
FORTHCOMING LATER TODAY ONCE THE RADAR PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...GENERALLY COOLER TO THE
NORTH AND MAXIMIZING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING TO NEAR 60 OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. /77

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN
PROVINCES/NORTHEAST US DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENING (BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL...WEST TO EAST) OVER THE SOUTHERN
US. SURFACE FRONT EASES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...PRETTY FAR SOUTH
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
FRIDAY JUST A BIT CLOSER TO BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BRINGS IN
A DEEPER DRIER AIRMASS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 80S...NOT TOO FAR OFF PACE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SHARPENS AS IT HEADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING FROM THE GULF...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW
FOR SATURDAY. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SUNDAY. WITH AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROF...EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH TROF...TAPPING
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD ON SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXTENDING INTO MEMORIAL DAY AND BEYOND
AS WELL. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHERE DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS BETWEEN A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS...WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR MEMORIAL DAY FAMILY GET TOGETHERS...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES...BRINGING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR. OVER
THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S LATE IN THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
21.12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION EXCEPT ALONG A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT
AFTER 21.16Z OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY 21.18Z. CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE
ACTIVE AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 22.00Z. WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND CONCENTRATE MORE OVER
THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND
BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN WAS
IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GWW AND THE WNA WAVE MODELS AS
WELL AS THE BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  66  83  67  87 /  50  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   88  67  83  70  86 /  50  20  10  05  10
DESTIN      87  68  82  72  84 /  40  20  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   87  60  83  63  90 /  40  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  86  60  82  63  88 /  40  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      85  60  81  62  88 /  30  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   91  63  85  65  89 /  40  20  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 211006
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
506 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A HIGH
OVER THE BOOT-HEEL OF MISSOURI AND A LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GEORGES BANK. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXTENDING AS A TROUGH OUT OF THAT
LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST A SERIES
OF SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THAT FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG IT LATE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING CONCENTRATED
MORE OVER THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THE EVAPOTRANSPORATION PROCESS
TO OCCUR IN THESE PLACES AS WELL AS EVAPORATION FROM FOLIAGE TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS. SATURATION WOULD THEN OCCUR WHEN RADIATION
COOLING...LIGHT WIND...AND A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION FORMS INCREASING
THE RISK OF LOWERED VISIBILITY. MUCH OF OUR RAINFALL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE OUTPUTS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION NON HYDROSTATIC
MODELS...VIS-A-VIS THE HRRR AND WRF...BECAUSE OF THE DETAIL THEY
PROVIDE AND FAVORABLE PERFORMANCE THEY HAVE SHOWN RECENTLY. WE
CONSIDER A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH QPF AND A POP 50% AS HIGH AS WE
ARE WILLING TO OFFER FOR THE MOMENT....BUT UPDATES MAY BE
FORTHCOMING LATER TODAY ONCE THE RADAR PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...GENERALLY COOLER TO THE
NORTH AND MAXIMIZING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING TO NEAR 60 OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. /77

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN
PROVINCES/NORTHEAST US DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENING (BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL...WEST TO EAST) OVER THE SOUTHERN
US. SURFACE FRONT EASES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...PRETTY FAR SOUTH
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
FRIDAY JUST A BIT CLOSER TO BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BRINGS IN
A DEEPER DRIER AIRMASS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 80S...NOT TOO FAR OFF PACE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SHARPENS AS IT HEADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING FROM THE GULF...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW
FOR SATURDAY. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SUNDAY. WITH AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROF...EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH TROF...TAPPING
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD ON SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXTENDING INTO MEMORIAL DAY AND BEYOND
AS WELL. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHERE DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS BETWEEN A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS...WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR MEMORIAL DAY FAMILY GET TOGETHERS...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES...BRINGING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR. OVER
THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S LATE IN THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
21.12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION EXCEPT ALONG A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT
AFTER 21.16Z OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY 21.18Z. CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE
ACTIVE AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 22.00Z. WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND CONCENTRATE MORE OVER
THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND
BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN WAS
IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GWW AND THE WNA WAVE MODELS AS
WELL AS THE BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  66  83  67  87 /  50  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   88  67  83  70  86 /  50  20  10  05  10
DESTIN      87  68  82  72  84 /  40  20  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   87  60  83  63  90 /  40  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  86  60  82  63  88 /  40  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      85  60  81  62  88 /  30  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   91  63  85  65  89 /  40  20  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 211006
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
506 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A HIGH
OVER THE BOOT-HEEL OF MISSOURI AND A LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GEORGES BANK. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXTENDING AS A TROUGH OUT OF THAT
LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST A SERIES
OF SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THAT FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG IT LATE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING CONCENTRATED
MORE OVER THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THE EVAPOTRANSPORATION PROCESS
TO OCCUR IN THESE PLACES AS WELL AS EVAPORATION FROM FOLIAGE TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS. SATURATION WOULD THEN OCCUR WHEN RADIATION
COOLING...LIGHT WIND...AND A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION FORMS INCREASING
THE RISK OF LOWERED VISIBILITY. MUCH OF OUR RAINFALL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE OUTPUTS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION NON HYDROSTATIC
MODELS...VIS-A-VIS THE HRRR AND WRF...BECAUSE OF THE DETAIL THEY
PROVIDE AND FAVORABLE PERFORMANCE THEY HAVE SHOWN RECENTLY. WE
CONSIDER A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH QPF AND A POP 50% AS HIGH AS WE
ARE WILLING TO OFFER FOR THE MOMENT....BUT UPDATES MAY BE
FORTHCOMING LATER TODAY ONCE THE RADAR PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...GENERALLY COOLER TO THE
NORTH AND MAXIMIZING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING TO NEAR 60 OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. /77

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN
PROVINCES/NORTHEAST US DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENING (BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL...WEST TO EAST) OVER THE SOUTHERN
US. SURFACE FRONT EASES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...PRETTY FAR SOUTH
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
FRIDAY JUST A BIT CLOSER TO BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BRINGS IN
A DEEPER DRIER AIRMASS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 80S...NOT TOO FAR OFF PACE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SHARPENS AS IT HEADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING FROM THE GULF...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW
FOR SATURDAY. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SUNDAY. WITH AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROF...EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH TROF...TAPPING
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD ON SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXTENDING INTO MEMORIAL DAY AND BEYOND
AS WELL. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHERE DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS BETWEEN A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS...WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR MEMORIAL DAY FAMILY GET TOGETHERS...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES...BRINGING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR. OVER
THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S LATE IN THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
21.12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION EXCEPT ALONG A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT
AFTER 21.16Z OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY 21.18Z. CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE
ACTIVE AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 22.00Z. WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND CONCENTRATE MORE OVER
THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND
BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN WAS
IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GWW AND THE WNA WAVE MODELS AS
WELL AS THE BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  66  83  67  87 /  50  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   88  67  83  70  86 /  50  20  10  05  10
DESTIN      87  68  82  72  84 /  40  20  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   87  60  83  63  90 /  40  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  86  60  82  63  88 /  40  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      85  60  81  62  88 /  30  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   91  63  85  65  89 /  40  20  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210853
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
353 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE FRONT STRETCHING
GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BASED ON THE
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON SURFACE OBS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH. WE`LL SEE A WIDE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HALEYVILLE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 70
DEGREES...WHILE EUFAULA COULD RISE CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE THE COOLER
AIR REALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO BARBOUR COUNTY. I`VE REMOVED ALL
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH JUST TOO MUCH DRY AIR
MOVING IN TO PREVENT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WE`LL
SEE VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...OR PERHAPS EVEN "CRISP"
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH. 40S WILL BE LIKELY FOR
THOSE SPOTS...WHILE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THAT`S
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BUT NOTHING OVERLY EXTREME.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING EACH DAY. WE`LL BE BACK IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO SCOUR OUT THE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
BE "SANDWICHED" IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WHICH WILL
ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH LIKE
WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD AT TIMES BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF
EACH SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH. WE`LL ALSO BE STUCK IN A VERY
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PWATS OF
1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED BY LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITHIN MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...SO ENJOY THE DRY AND
PLEASANT HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE YOU
CAN!

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
NOTICED BY THE SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SPEED INCREASE AS THE FRONT
PASSES. SOME LOWER...PERHAPS IFR...CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  49  77  54  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    76  51  78  56  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  75  52  78  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  78  53  79  59  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  52  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      81  55  80  60  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  84  57  82  60  88 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        85  57  83  59  88 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210853
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
353 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE FRONT STRETCHING
GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BASED ON THE
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON SURFACE OBS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH. WE`LL SEE A WIDE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HALEYVILLE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 70
DEGREES...WHILE EUFAULA COULD RISE CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE THE COOLER
AIR REALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO BARBOUR COUNTY. I`VE REMOVED ALL
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH JUST TOO MUCH DRY AIR
MOVING IN TO PREVENT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WE`LL
SEE VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...OR PERHAPS EVEN "CRISP"
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH. 40S WILL BE LIKELY FOR
THOSE SPOTS...WHILE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THAT`S
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BUT NOTHING OVERLY EXTREME.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING EACH DAY. WE`LL BE BACK IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO SCOUR OUT THE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
BE "SANDWICHED" IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WHICH WILL
ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH LIKE
WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD AT TIMES BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF
EACH SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH. WE`LL ALSO BE STUCK IN A VERY
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PWATS OF
1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED BY LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITHIN MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...SO ENJOY THE DRY AND
PLEASANT HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE YOU
CAN!

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
NOTICED BY THE SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SPEED INCREASE AS THE FRONT
PASSES. SOME LOWER...PERHAPS IFR...CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  49  77  54  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    76  51  78  56  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  75  52  78  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  78  53  79  59  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  52  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      81  55  80  60  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  84  57  82  60  88 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        85  57  83  59  88 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210519 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

A MID LEVEL VORTEX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED EARLIER ACROSS NW AL AND THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. THE REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAVE
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF S MIDDLE TN AND NE AL. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS/WX TO REFLECT A MORE RAPID ENDING OF THE SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

NOW FOR SKY COVER, HAVE NOTICED VIS (BEFORE SUNSET) AND IR TRENDS
HAVE SHOWN A MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER SOLUTION. THUS,
INCORPORATED MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AFTER 4 AM.

ADDITIONALLY, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH (LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE MID MS AND OH RIVER
VALLEYS) WILL ACT TO COOL THE DEWPOINT AND AIR TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO, MADE CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADDITIONAL TWEAKING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MAY ACCELERATE
SOMEWHAT SE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EDGES ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION.

OTHERWISE, MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT
TRENDS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL UNTIL 21/18Z WITH NW
WINDS UP TO 10KTS LIKELY UNTIL 21/15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
RETURN BY 21/18Z-21/19Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210519 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

A MID LEVEL VORTEX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED EARLIER ACROSS NW AL AND THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. THE REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAVE
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF S MIDDLE TN AND NE AL. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS/WX TO REFLECT A MORE RAPID ENDING OF THE SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

NOW FOR SKY COVER, HAVE NOTICED VIS (BEFORE SUNSET) AND IR TRENDS
HAVE SHOWN A MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER SOLUTION. THUS,
INCORPORATED MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AFTER 4 AM.

ADDITIONALLY, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH (LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE MID MS AND OH RIVER
VALLEYS) WILL ACT TO COOL THE DEWPOINT AND AIR TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO, MADE CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADDITIONAL TWEAKING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MAY ACCELERATE
SOMEWHAT SE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EDGES ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION.

OTHERWISE, MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT
TRENDS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL UNTIL 21/18Z WITH NW
WINDS UP TO 10KTS LIKELY UNTIL 21/15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
RETURN BY 21/18Z-21/19Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 210519 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

A MID LEVEL VORTEX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED EARLIER ACROSS NW AL AND THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. THE REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAVE
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF S MIDDLE TN AND NE AL. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS/WX TO REFLECT A MORE RAPID ENDING OF THE SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

NOW FOR SKY COVER, HAVE NOTICED VIS (BEFORE SUNSET) AND IR TRENDS
HAVE SHOWN A MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER SOLUTION. THUS,
INCORPORATED MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AFTER 4 AM.

ADDITIONALLY, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH (LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE MID MS AND OH RIVER
VALLEYS) WILL ACT TO COOL THE DEWPOINT AND AIR TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO, MADE CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADDITIONAL TWEAKING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MAY ACCELERATE
SOMEWHAT SE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EDGES ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION.

OTHERWISE, MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT
TRENDS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL UNTIL 21/18Z WITH NW
WINDS UP TO 10KTS LIKELY UNTIL 21/15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
RETURN BY 21/18Z-21/19Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210519 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

A MID LEVEL VORTEX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED EARLIER ACROSS NW AL AND THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. THE REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAVE
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF S MIDDLE TN AND NE AL. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS/WX TO REFLECT A MORE RAPID ENDING OF THE SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

NOW FOR SKY COVER, HAVE NOTICED VIS (BEFORE SUNSET) AND IR TRENDS
HAVE SHOWN A MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER SOLUTION. THUS,
INCORPORATED MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AFTER 4 AM.

ADDITIONALLY, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH (LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE MID MS AND OH RIVER
VALLEYS) WILL ACT TO COOL THE DEWPOINT AND AIR TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO, MADE CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADDITIONAL TWEAKING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MAY ACCELERATE
SOMEWHAT SE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EDGES ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION.

OTHERWISE, MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT
TRENDS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL UNTIL 21/18Z WITH NW
WINDS UP TO 10KTS LIKELY UNTIL 21/15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
RETURN BY 21/18Z-21/19Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 210444 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
21.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 22.00Z. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BRING CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AL WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AXIS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. /21

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOLER...DRIER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
COAST. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON
THE SOUTHWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT...SUSPECT IT WILL BE OVER THE MARINE
AREA BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. EXPECT A RELATIVELY PLEASANT COOL
MORNING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL
WITH MOST SITES PEAKING OUT IN THE MID 80S. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AS ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO KEEP THE SEA BREEZE CONFINED TO THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. /08 JW

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL
MORNING SATURDAY AS A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
PREVAILS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD
CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION BUT ENOUGH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND A DEEP ENOUGH SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD OPENING UP REGION TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY SO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT EACH
DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
GENERALLY TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY AFTER SATURDAY
MORNING. /08 JW

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
WEEKEND. FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ALONG WITH INCREASING
SEAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  90  64  85  63 /  40  50  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   74  89  67  85  67 /  20  40  20  20  05
DESTIN      75  86  68  83  69 /  20  30  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   68  89  62  86  61 /  40  40  10  10  05
WAYNESBORO  68  85  61  84  61 /  50  40  10  10  05
CAMDEN      68  85  63  83  61 /  50  30  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   69  92  62  87  61 /  30  40  10  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 210444 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
21.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 22.00Z. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BRING CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AL WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AXIS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. /21

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOLER...DRIER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
COAST. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON
THE SOUTHWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT...SUSPECT IT WILL BE OVER THE MARINE
AREA BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. EXPECT A RELATIVELY PLEASANT COOL
MORNING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL
WITH MOST SITES PEAKING OUT IN THE MID 80S. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AS ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO KEEP THE SEA BREEZE CONFINED TO THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. /08 JW

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL
MORNING SATURDAY AS A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
PREVAILS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD
CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION BUT ENOUGH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND A DEEP ENOUGH SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD OPENING UP REGION TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY SO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT EACH
DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
GENERALLY TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY AFTER SATURDAY
MORNING. /08 JW

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
WEEKEND. FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ALONG WITH INCREASING
SEAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  90  64  85  63 /  40  50  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   74  89  67  85  67 /  20  40  20  20  05
DESTIN      75  86  68  83  69 /  20  30  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   68  89  62  86  61 /  40  40  10  10  05
WAYNESBORO  68  85  61  84  61 /  50  40  10  10  05
CAMDEN      68  85  63  83  61 /  50  30  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   69  92  62  87  61 /  30  40  10  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 210426
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR WAS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN
A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU 06Z BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS
ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
NOTICED BY THE SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SPEED INCREASE AS THE FRONT
PASSES. SOME LOWER...PERHAPS IFR...CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210426
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR WAS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN
A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU 06Z BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS
ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
NOTICED BY THE SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SPEED INCREASE AS THE FRONT
PASSES. SOME LOWER...PERHAPS IFR...CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 210426
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR WAS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN
A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU 06Z BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS
ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
NOTICED BY THE SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SPEED INCREASE AS THE FRONT
PASSES. SOME LOWER...PERHAPS IFR...CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210155 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
TO TAILOR POPS/WX AND ADJUSTMENTS TO AIR TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE, SKY COVER, AND WIND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MID LEVEL VORTEX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED EARLIER ACROSS NW AL AND THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. THE REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAVE
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF S MIDDLE TN AND NE AL. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS/WX TO REFLECT A MORE RAPID ENDING OF THE SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

NOW FOR SKY COVER, HAVE NOTICED VIS (BEFORE SUNSET) AND IR TRENDS
HAVE SHOWN A MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER SOLUTION. THUS,
INCORPORATED MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AFTER 4 AM.

ADDITIONALLY, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH (LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE MID MS AND OH RIVER
VALLEYS) WILL ACT TO COOL THE DEWPOINT AND AIR TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO, MADE CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADDITIONAL TWEAKING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MAY ACCELERATE
SOMEWHAT SE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EDGES ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION.

OTHERWISE, MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT
TRENDS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

SHRA/TSRA AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. HAVE KEPT IN
MENTION OF 4SM TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL.
LOWER CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA BY AROUND THE 03Z-04Z TIME PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE TRENDING OF KEEPING MVFR RANGE CEILINGS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL
BETWEEN 19Z-20Z ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 210155 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
TO TAILOR POPS/WX AND ADJUSTMENTS TO AIR TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE, SKY COVER, AND WIND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MID LEVEL VORTEX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED EARLIER ACROSS NW AL AND THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. THE REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAVE
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF S MIDDLE TN AND NE AL. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS/WX TO REFLECT A MORE RAPID ENDING OF THE SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

NOW FOR SKY COVER, HAVE NOTICED VIS (BEFORE SUNSET) AND IR TRENDS
HAVE SHOWN A MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER SOLUTION. THUS,
INCORPORATED MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AFTER 4 AM.

ADDITIONALLY, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH (LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE MID MS AND OH RIVER
VALLEYS) WILL ACT TO COOL THE DEWPOINT AND AIR TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO, MADE CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADDITIONAL TWEAKING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MAY ACCELERATE
SOMEWHAT SE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EDGES ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION.

OTHERWISE, MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT
TRENDS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

SHRA/TSRA AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. HAVE KEPT IN
MENTION OF 4SM TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL.
LOWER CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA BY AROUND THE 03Z-04Z TIME PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE TRENDING OF KEEPING MVFR RANGE CEILINGS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL
BETWEEN 19Z-20Z ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210155 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
TO TAILOR POPS/WX AND ADJUSTMENTS TO AIR TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE, SKY COVER, AND WIND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MID LEVEL VORTEX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED EARLIER ACROSS NW AL AND THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. THE REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAVE
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF S MIDDLE TN AND NE AL. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS/WX TO REFLECT A MORE RAPID ENDING OF THE SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

NOW FOR SKY COVER, HAVE NOTICED VIS (BEFORE SUNSET) AND IR TRENDS
HAVE SHOWN A MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER SOLUTION. THUS,
INCORPORATED MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AFTER 4 AM.

ADDITIONALLY, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH (LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE MID MS AND OH RIVER
VALLEYS) WILL ACT TO COOL THE DEWPOINT AND AIR TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO, MADE CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADDITIONAL TWEAKING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MAY ACCELERATE
SOMEWHAT SE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EDGES ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION.

OTHERWISE, MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT
TRENDS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

SHRA/TSRA AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. HAVE KEPT IN
MENTION OF 4SM TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL.
LOWER CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA BY AROUND THE 03Z-04Z TIME PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE TRENDING OF KEEPING MVFR RANGE CEILINGS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL
BETWEEN 19Z-20Z ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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