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000
FXUS64 KBMX 201750
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELCOME TO THE THE OCTOBER DOLDRUMS. THE SEASONAL COOL DOWN AND
LACK OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST BATTLE IS GOING WITH 0
PERCENT OR 10 PERCENT OVER THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY...BUT WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RE-ENFORCING COLDER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY EVENING MODELS ARE INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
BUT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WE
WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND ONLY TO RE-
ENFORCE THE DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FRONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PASS THRU THE AREA...PRODUCING SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  73  44  69  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  74  45  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  75  46  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  50  77  48  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      51  75  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  76  49  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  52  80  48  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  80  49  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201750
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELCOME TO THE THE OCTOBER DOLDRUMS. THE SEASONAL COOL DOWN AND
LACK OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST BATTLE IS GOING WITH 0
PERCENT OR 10 PERCENT OVER THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY...BUT WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RE-ENFORCING COLDER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY EVENING MODELS ARE INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
BUT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WE
WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND ONLY TO RE-
ENFORCE THE DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FRONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PASS THRU THE AREA...PRODUCING SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  73  44  69  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  74  45  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  75  46  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  50  77  48  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      51  75  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  76  49  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  52  80  48  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  80  49  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201750
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELCOME TO THE THE OCTOBER DOLDRUMS. THE SEASONAL COOL DOWN AND
LACK OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST BATTLE IS GOING WITH 0
PERCENT OR 10 PERCENT OVER THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY...BUT WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RE-ENFORCING COLDER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY EVENING MODELS ARE INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
BUT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WE
WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND ONLY TO RE-
ENFORCE THE DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FRONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PASS THRU THE AREA...PRODUCING SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  73  44  69  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  74  45  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  75  46  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  50  77  48  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      51  75  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  76  49  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  52  80  48  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  80  49  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201750
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELCOME TO THE THE OCTOBER DOLDRUMS. THE SEASONAL COOL DOWN AND
LACK OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST BATTLE IS GOING WITH 0
PERCENT OR 10 PERCENT OVER THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY...BUT WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RE-ENFORCING COLDER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY EVENING MODELS ARE INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
BUT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WE
WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND ONLY TO RE-
ENFORCE THE DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FRONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PASS THRU THE AREA...PRODUCING SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  73  44  69  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  74  45  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  75  46  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  50  77  48  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      51  75  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  76  49  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  52  80  48  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  80  49  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 201723 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1011 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THIS
HOUR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWFA. SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
LINGERS ALONG THE TN RIVER AND INTO THE DEKALB VALLEY IN NE AL, BUT
THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE SHORTLY
(EXCEPT IN NE AL, WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 11AM).

UPSTREAM, AN APPROACHING H5 DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES TO
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
VIRGA (THANKS TO THE STOUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 850MB PER THE
MORNING OHX RAOB), A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH, WILL RETAIN THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ALREADY IN
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL RETURN BY MORNING.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE TODAY: ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL/EXPECTED TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AGAIN TODAY.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY AT
BOTH TERMINALS (WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE), BUT VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. AS SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT, DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KMSL AGAIN, WITH MVFR CONDS THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BY MORNING, WITH VSBYS APPROACHING AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THRU 13Z. KHSV IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY ISSUES WITH FOG
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL RETURN AND PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES
AFTER 13-14Z TOMORROW MORNING, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201723 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1011 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THIS
HOUR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWFA. SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
LINGERS ALONG THE TN RIVER AND INTO THE DEKALB VALLEY IN NE AL, BUT
THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE SHORTLY
(EXCEPT IN NE AL, WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 11AM).

UPSTREAM, AN APPROACHING H5 DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES TO
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
VIRGA (THANKS TO THE STOUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 850MB PER THE
MORNING OHX RAOB), A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH, WILL RETAIN THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ALREADY IN
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL RETURN BY MORNING.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE TODAY: ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL/EXPECTED TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AGAIN TODAY.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY AT
BOTH TERMINALS (WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE), BUT VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. AS SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT, DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KMSL AGAIN, WITH MVFR CONDS THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BY MORNING, WITH VSBYS APPROACHING AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THRU 13Z. KHSV IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY ISSUES WITH FOG
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL RETURN AND PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES
AFTER 13-14Z TOMORROW MORNING, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201511 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1011 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THIS
HOUR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWFA. SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
LINGERS ALONG THE TN RIVER AND INTO THE DEKALB VALLEY IN NE AL, BUT
THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE SHORTLY
(EXCEPT IN NE AL, WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 11AM).

UPSTREAM, AN APPROACHING H5 DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES TO
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
VIRGA (THANKS TO THE STOUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 850MB PER THE
MORNING OHX RAOB), A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH, WILL RETAIN THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ALREADY IN
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL RETURN BY MORNING.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE TODAY: ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL/EXPECTED TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AGAIN TODAY.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201511 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1011 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THIS
HOUR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWFA. SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
LINGERS ALONG THE TN RIVER AND INTO THE DEKALB VALLEY IN NE AL, BUT
THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE SHORTLY
(EXCEPT IN NE AL, WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 11AM).

UPSTREAM, AN APPROACHING H5 DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES TO
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
VIRGA (THANKS TO THE STOUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 850MB PER THE
MORNING OHX RAOB), A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH, WILL RETAIN THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ALREADY IN
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL RETURN BY MORNING.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE TODAY: ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL/EXPECTED TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AGAIN TODAY.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201511 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1011 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THIS
HOUR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWFA. SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
LINGERS ALONG THE TN RIVER AND INTO THE DEKALB VALLEY IN NE AL, BUT
THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE SHORTLY
(EXCEPT IN NE AL, WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 11AM).

UPSTREAM, AN APPROACHING H5 DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES TO
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
VIRGA (THANKS TO THE STOUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 850MB PER THE
MORNING OHX RAOB), A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH, WILL RETAIN THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ALREADY IN
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL RETURN BY MORNING.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE TODAY: ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL/EXPECTED TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AGAIN TODAY.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201511 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1011 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THIS
HOUR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWFA. SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
LINGERS ALONG THE TN RIVER AND INTO THE DEKALB VALLEY IN NE AL, BUT
THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE SHORTLY
(EXCEPT IN NE AL, WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 11AM).

UPSTREAM, AN APPROACHING H5 DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES TO
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
VIRGA (THANKS TO THE STOUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 850MB PER THE
MORNING OHX RAOB), A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH, WILL RETAIN THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ALREADY IN
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL RETURN BY MORNING.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE TODAY: ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL/EXPECTED TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AGAIN TODAY.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201130 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR THINNING
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201130 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR THINNING
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201130 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR THINNING
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201130 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR THINNING
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201128
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELCOME TO THE THE OCTOBER DOLDRUMS. THE SEASONAL COOL DOWN AND
LACK OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST BATTLE IS GOING WITH 0
PERCENT OR 10 PERCENT OVER THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY...BUT WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RE-ENFORCING COLDER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY EVENING MODELS ARE INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
BUT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WE
WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND ONLY TO RE-
ENFORCE THE DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FRONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THERE`S SOME RIVER FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING
BUT NOT AFFECTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  48  73  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    73  49  74  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  74  50  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  75  50  77  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      73  51  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      73  53  76  49  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  52  80  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        76  51  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 201128
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELCOME TO THE THE OCTOBER DOLDRUMS. THE SEASONAL COOL DOWN AND
LACK OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST BATTLE IS GOING WITH 0
PERCENT OR 10 PERCENT OVER THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY...BUT WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RE-ENFORCING COLDER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY EVENING MODELS ARE INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
BUT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WE
WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND ONLY TO RE-
ENFORCE THE DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FRONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THERE`S SOME RIVER FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING
BUT NOT AFFECTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  48  73  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    73  49  74  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  74  50  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  75  50  77  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      73  51  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      73  53  76  49  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  52  80  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        76  51  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 201011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        71  48  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
VINEMONT      71  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  69  47  71  41 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   72  48  73  43 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    72  47  73  42 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        71  48  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
VINEMONT      71  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  69  47  71  41 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   72  48  73  43 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    72  47  73  42 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        71  48  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
VINEMONT      71  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  69  47  71  41 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   72  48  73  43 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    72  47  73  42 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        71  48  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
VINEMONT      71  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  69  47  71  41 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   72  48  73  43 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    72  47  73  42 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        71  48  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
VINEMONT      71  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  69  47  71  41 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   72  48  73  43 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    72  47  73  42 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        71  48  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
VINEMONT      71  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  69  47  71  41 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   72  48  73  43 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    72  47  73  42 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 201008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  52  80  54  78 /  00  05  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   79  54  80  57  77 /  00  05  00  05  00
DESTIN      78  56  80  59  76 /  05  05  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   76  47  80  46  76 /  00  05  00  05  00
WAYNESBORO  77  46  80  46  77 /  00  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      77  48  79  46  74 /  00  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   78  50  82  48  78 /  00  05  00  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 201008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  52  80  54  78 /  00  05  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   79  54  80  57  77 /  00  05  00  05  00
DESTIN      78  56  80  59  76 /  05  05  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   76  47  80  46  76 /  00  05  00  05  00
WAYNESBORO  77  46  80  46  77 /  00  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      77  48  79  46  74 /  00  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   78  50  82  48  78 /  00  05  00  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 201008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  52  80  54  78 /  00  05  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   79  54  80  57  77 /  00  05  00  05  00
DESTIN      78  56  80  59  76 /  05  05  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   76  47  80  46  76 /  00  05  00  05  00
WAYNESBORO  77  46  80  46  77 /  00  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      77  48  79  46  74 /  00  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   78  50  82  48  78 /  00  05  00  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 201008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  52  80  54  78 /  00  05  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   79  54  80  57  77 /  00  05  00  05  00
DESTIN      78  56  80  59  76 /  05  05  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   76  47  80  46  76 /  00  05  00  05  00
WAYNESBORO  77  46  80  46  77 /  00  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      77  48  79  46  74 /  00  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   78  50  82  48  78 /  00  05  00  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 201008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  52  80  54  78 /  00  05  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   79  54  80  57  77 /  00  05  00  05  00
DESTIN      78  56  80  59  76 /  05  05  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   76  47  80  46  76 /  00  05  00  05  00
WAYNESBORO  77  46  80  46  77 /  00  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      77  48  79  46  74 /  00  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   78  50  82  48  78 /  00  05  00  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 201008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  52  80  54  78 /  00  05  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   79  54  80  57  77 /  00  05  00  05  00
DESTIN      78  56  80  59  76 /  05  05  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   76  47  80  46  76 /  00  05  00  05  00
WAYNESBORO  77  46  80  46  77 /  00  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      77  48  79  46  74 /  00  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   78  50  82  48  78 /  00  05  00  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 200907
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
407 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WELCOME TO THE THE OCTOBER DOLDRUMS. THE SEASONAL COOL DOWN AND
LACK OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST BATTLE IS GOING WITH 0
PERCENT OR 10 PERCENT OVER THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY...BUT WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RE-ENFORCING COLDER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY EVENING MODELS ARE INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
BUT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WE
WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND ONLY TO RE-
ENFORCE THE DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FRONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO OPERATIONAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  48  73  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    73  49  74  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  74  50  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  75  50  77  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      73  51  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      73  53  76  49  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  52  80  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        76  51  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 200907
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
407 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WELCOME TO THE THE OCTOBER DOLDRUMS. THE SEASONAL COOL DOWN AND
LACK OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST BATTLE IS GOING WITH 0
PERCENT OR 10 PERCENT OVER THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY...BUT WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RE-ENFORCING COLDER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY EVENING MODELS ARE INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
BUT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WE
WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND ONLY TO RE-
ENFORCE THE DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FRONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO OPERATIONAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  48  73  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    73  49  74  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  74  50  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  75  50  77  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      73  51  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      73  53  76  49  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  52  80  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        76  51  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 200907
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
407 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WELCOME TO THE THE OCTOBER DOLDRUMS. THE SEASONAL COOL DOWN AND
LACK OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST BATTLE IS GOING WITH 0
PERCENT OR 10 PERCENT OVER THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY...BUT WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RE-ENFORCING COLDER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY EVENING MODELS ARE INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
BUT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WE
WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND ONLY TO RE-
ENFORCE THE DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FRONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO OPERATIONAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  48  73  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    73  49  74  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  74  50  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  75  50  77  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      73  51  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      73  53  76  49  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  52  80  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        76  51  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 200907
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
407 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WELCOME TO THE THE OCTOBER DOLDRUMS. THE SEASONAL COOL DOWN AND
LACK OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST BATTLE IS GOING WITH 0
PERCENT OR 10 PERCENT OVER THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY...BUT WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RE-ENFORCING COLDER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY EVENING MODELS ARE INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
BUT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WE
WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND ONLY TO RE-
ENFORCE THE DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FRONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO OPERATIONAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  48  73  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    73  49  74  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  74  50  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  75  50  77  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      73  51  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      73  53  76  49  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  52  80  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        76  51  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 200458 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 827 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS TN AND THE NERN
PORTIONS OF AL. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
THIS, BUT FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN EXITING AROUND OR AFTER 06Z.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPS IN SRN TN HAVE DIPPED INTO THE U40S, WITH
L-M50S IN NRN AL EXCEPT FOR THE HSV AREA. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND IS
KEEPING THE TEMP AT 59F AS OF THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THE BUFKIT FOG
TOOLS INDICATE FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN
OUR NOTORIOUS VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
NOW LOCATED FROM OHIO THRU LOUISIANA SHIFTING THRU THE REGION AS
WELL. GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 200458 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 827 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS TN AND THE NERN
PORTIONS OF AL. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
THIS, BUT FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN EXITING AROUND OR AFTER 06Z.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPS IN SRN TN HAVE DIPPED INTO THE U40S, WITH
L-M50S IN NRN AL EXCEPT FOR THE HSV AREA. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND IS
KEEPING THE TEMP AT 59F AS OF THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THE BUFKIT FOG
TOOLS INDICATE FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN
OUR NOTORIOUS VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
NOW LOCATED FROM OHIO THRU LOUISIANA SHIFTING THRU THE REGION AS
WELL. GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 200452
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1152 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH LIGHT WINDS THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...TEMPERATURES ARE
COOLING QUITE EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT. EXPECTING COOLER READINGS
TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN OVERNIGHT WINDS HELD UP.
BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS...HAVE NUDGED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE IN A FEW
SPOTS BUT OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO OPERATIONAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  72  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    44  73  49  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  74  50  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  44  75  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  73  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      47  73  53  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  77  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        44  76  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 200452
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1152 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH LIGHT WINDS THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...TEMPERATURES ARE
COOLING QUITE EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT. EXPECTING COOLER READINGS
TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN OVERNIGHT WINDS HELD UP.
BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS...HAVE NUDGED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE IN A FEW
SPOTS BUT OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO OPERATIONAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  72  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    44  73  49  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  74  50  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  44  75  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  73  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      47  73  53  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  77  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        44  76  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 200446 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
920 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...(920 PM)...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...TEMPS WISE...WITH
NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IL/IN AND WESTERN
KY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RANGING IN THE MID 70S AS OF 2
PM CDT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A DRY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. WE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE 50S NEAR THE
COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S.
MONDAY...WITH DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY.
/21

[MONDAY  NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH ALONG A
LINE FROM LAKE HURON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TO THE EAST BUT DEEPEN...WINDING UP WITH CLOSED CONTOURS
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK TO VIRGINIA. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION BY VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FLAT ALONG A SADDLE POINT AS IT ADJOINS THE TRADE WIND REGION
OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

LOWS WILL DEPART FROM SEASONAL BY ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST AND 6 TO 10 DEGREES INLAND TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW SEASONAL. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND 5 OR SO DEGREES INLAND. /77

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN
THE WEEK AS PER THE EURO. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE EURO. A SURFACE LOW SHOWN OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DRIFT EAST AS A HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /77

&&

.MARINE...EARLY AFTERNOON MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS EXPECTED OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND THE
OPEN NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SEAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  79  52  80  55 /  00  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   56  80  54  80  60 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      59  78  56  80  63 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  78  47  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  45  78  46  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      46  78  48  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   45  80  50  82  52 /  00  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 200446 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
920 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...(920 PM)...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...TEMPS WISE...WITH
NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IL/IN AND WESTERN
KY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RANGING IN THE MID 70S AS OF 2
PM CDT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A DRY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. WE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE 50S NEAR THE
COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S.
MONDAY...WITH DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY.
/21

[MONDAY  NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH ALONG A
LINE FROM LAKE HURON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TO THE EAST BUT DEEPEN...WINDING UP WITH CLOSED CONTOURS
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK TO VIRGINIA. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION BY VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FLAT ALONG A SADDLE POINT AS IT ADJOINS THE TRADE WIND REGION
OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

LOWS WILL DEPART FROM SEASONAL BY ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST AND 6 TO 10 DEGREES INLAND TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW SEASONAL. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND 5 OR SO DEGREES INLAND. /77

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN
THE WEEK AS PER THE EURO. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE EURO. A SURFACE LOW SHOWN OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DRIFT EAST AS A HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /77

&&

.MARINE...EARLY AFTERNOON MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS EXPECTED OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND THE
OPEN NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SEAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  79  52  80  55 /  00  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   56  80  54  80  60 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      59  78  56  80  63 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  78  47  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  45  78  46  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      46  78  48  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   45  80  50  82  52 /  00  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KBMX 200312 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1012 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH LIGHT WINDS THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...TEMPERATURES ARE
COOLING QUITE EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT. EXPECTING COOLER READINGS
TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN OVERNIGHT WINDS HELD UP.
BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS...HAVE NUDGED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE IN A FEW
SPOTS BUT OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN FULL FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOSED BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  72  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    44  73  49  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  74  50  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  44  75  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  73  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      47  73  53  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  77  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        44  76  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/61/87






000
FXUS64 KBMX 200312 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1012 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH LIGHT WINDS THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...TEMPERATURES ARE
COOLING QUITE EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT. EXPECTING COOLER READINGS
TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN OVERNIGHT WINDS HELD UP.
BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS...HAVE NUDGED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE IN A FEW
SPOTS BUT OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN FULL FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOSED BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  72  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    44  73  49  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  74  50  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  44  75  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  73  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      47  73  53  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  77  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        44  76  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/61/87






000
FXUS64 KBMX 200312 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1012 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH LIGHT WINDS THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...TEMPERATURES ARE
COOLING QUITE EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT. EXPECTING COOLER READINGS
TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN OVERNIGHT WINDS HELD UP.
BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS...HAVE NUDGED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE IN A FEW
SPOTS BUT OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN FULL FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOSED BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  72  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    44  73  49  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  74  50  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  44  75  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  73  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      47  73  53  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  77  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        44  76  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/61/87






000
FXUS64 KBMX 200312 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1012 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH LIGHT WINDS THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...TEMPERATURES ARE
COOLING QUITE EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT. EXPECTING COOLER READINGS
TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN OVERNIGHT WINDS HELD UP.
BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS...HAVE NUDGED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE IN A FEW
SPOTS BUT OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN FULL FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOSED BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  72  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    44  73  49  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  74  50  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  44  75  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  73  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      47  73  53  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  77  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        44  76  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/61/87






000
FXUS64 KMOB 200235 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
920 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...(920 PM)...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...TEMPS WISE...WITH
NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&


.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IL/IN AND WESTERN
KY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RANGING IN THE MID 70S AS OF 2
PM CDT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A DRY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. WE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE 50S NEAR THE
COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S.
MONDAY...WITH DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY.
/21

[MONDAY  NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH ALONG A
LINE FROM LAKE HURON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TO THE EAST BUT DEEPEN...WINDING UP WITH CLOSED CONTOURS
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK TO VIRGINIA. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION BY VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FLAT ALONG A SADDLE POINT AS IT ADJOINS THE TRADE WIND REGION
OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

LOWS WILL DEPART FROM SEASONAL BY ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST AND 6 TO 10 DEGREES INLAND TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW SEASONAL. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND 5 OR SO DEGREES INLAND. /77

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN
THE WEEK AS PER THE EURO. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE EURO. A SURFACE LOW SHOWN OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DRIFT EAST AS A HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /77

&&

.MARINE...EARLY AFTERNOON MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS EXPECTED OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND THE
OPEN NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SEAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  79  52  80  55 /  00  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   56  80  54  80  60 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      59  78  56  80  63 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  78  47  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  45  78  46  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      46  78  48  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   45  80  50  82  52 /  00  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 200235 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
920 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...(920 PM)...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...TEMPS WISE...WITH
NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&


.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IL/IN AND WESTERN
KY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RANGING IN THE MID 70S AS OF 2
PM CDT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A DRY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. WE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE 50S NEAR THE
COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S.
MONDAY...WITH DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY.
/21

[MONDAY  NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH ALONG A
LINE FROM LAKE HURON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TO THE EAST BUT DEEPEN...WINDING UP WITH CLOSED CONTOURS
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK TO VIRGINIA. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION BY VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FLAT ALONG A SADDLE POINT AS IT ADJOINS THE TRADE WIND REGION
OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

LOWS WILL DEPART FROM SEASONAL BY ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST AND 6 TO 10 DEGREES INLAND TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW SEASONAL. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND 5 OR SO DEGREES INLAND. /77

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN
THE WEEK AS PER THE EURO. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE EURO. A SURFACE LOW SHOWN OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DRIFT EAST AS A HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /77

&&

.MARINE...EARLY AFTERNOON MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS EXPECTED OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND THE
OPEN NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SEAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  79  52  80  55 /  00  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   56  80  54  80  60 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      59  78  56  80  63 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  78  47  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  45  78  46  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      46  78  48  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   45  80  50  82  52 /  00  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 200127 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
827 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST SKY COVER UPWARD FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS TN AND THE NERN
PORTIONS OF AL. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
THIS, BUT FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN EXITING AROUND OR AFTER 06Z.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPS IN SRN TN HAVE DIPPED INTO THE U40S, WITH
L-M50S IN NRN AL EXCEPT FOR THE HSV AREA. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND IS
KEEPING THE TEMP AT 59F AS OF THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THE BUFKIT FOG
TOOLS INDICATE FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN
OUR NOTORIOUS VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
NOW LOCATED FROM OHIO THRU LOUISIANA SHIFTING THRU THE REGION AS
WELL. GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 200127 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
827 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST SKY COVER UPWARD FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS TN AND THE NERN
PORTIONS OF AL. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
THIS, BUT FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN EXITING AROUND OR AFTER 06Z.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPS IN SRN TN HAVE DIPPED INTO THE U40S, WITH
L-M50S IN NRN AL EXCEPT FOR THE HSV AREA. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND IS
KEEPING THE TEMP AT 59F AS OF THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THE BUFKIT FOG
TOOLS INDICATE FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN
OUR NOTORIOUS VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
NOW LOCATED FROM OHIO THRU LOUISIANA SHIFTING THRU THE REGION AS
WELL. GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 200127 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
827 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST SKY COVER UPWARD FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS TN AND THE NERN
PORTIONS OF AL. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
THIS, BUT FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN EXITING AROUND OR AFTER 06Z.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPS IN SRN TN HAVE DIPPED INTO THE U40S, WITH
L-M50S IN NRN AL EXCEPT FOR THE HSV AREA. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND IS
KEEPING THE TEMP AT 59F AS OF THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THE BUFKIT FOG
TOOLS INDICATE FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN
OUR NOTORIOUS VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
NOW LOCATED FROM OHIO THRU LOUISIANA SHIFTING THRU THE REGION AS
WELL. GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 200127 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
827 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST SKY COVER UPWARD FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS TN AND THE NERN
PORTIONS OF AL. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
THIS, BUT FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN EXITING AROUND OR AFTER 06Z.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPS IN SRN TN HAVE DIPPED INTO THE U40S, WITH
L-M50S IN NRN AL EXCEPT FOR THE HSV AREA. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND IS
KEEPING THE TEMP AT 59F AS OF THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THE BUFKIT FOG
TOOLS INDICATE FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN
OUR NOTORIOUS VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
NOW LOCATED FROM OHIO THRU LOUISIANA SHIFTING THRU THE REGION AS
WELL. GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 192321
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN FULL FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOSED BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 192321
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN FULL FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOSED BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 192321
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN FULL FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOSED BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 192321
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN FULL FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOSED BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 192315 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IL/IN AND WESTERN
KY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RANGING IN THE MID 70S AS OF 2
PM CDT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A DRY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. WE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE 50S NEAR THE
COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S.
MONDAY...WITH DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY.
/21

[MONDAY  NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH ALONG A
LINE FROM LAKE HURON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TO THE EAST BUT DEEPEN...WINDING UP WITH CLOSED CONTOURS
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK TO VIRGINIA. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION BY VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FLAT ALONG A SADDLE POINT AS IT ADJOINS THE TRADE WIND REGION
OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

LOWS WILL DEPART FROM SEASONAL BY ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST AND 6 TO 10 DEGREES INLAND TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW SEASONAL. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND 5 OR SO DEGREES INLAND. /77

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN
THE WEEK AS PER THE EURO. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE EURO. A SURFACE LOW SHOWN OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DRIFT EAST AS A HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /77

&&

.MARINE...EARLY AFTERNOON MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS EXPECTED OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND THE
OPEN NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SEAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  79  52  80  55 /  00  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   56  80  54  80  60 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      59  78  56  80  63 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  78  47  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  45  78  46  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      46  78  48  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   45  80  50  82  52 /  00  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 192315 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IL/IN AND WESTERN
KY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RANGING IN THE MID 70S AS OF 2
PM CDT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A DRY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. WE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE 50S NEAR THE
COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S.
MONDAY...WITH DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY.
/21

[MONDAY  NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH ALONG A
LINE FROM LAKE HURON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TO THE EAST BUT DEEPEN...WINDING UP WITH CLOSED CONTOURS
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK TO VIRGINIA. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION BY VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FLAT ALONG A SADDLE POINT AS IT ADJOINS THE TRADE WIND REGION
OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

LOWS WILL DEPART FROM SEASONAL BY ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST AND 6 TO 10 DEGREES INLAND TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW SEASONAL. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND 5 OR SO DEGREES INLAND. /77

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN
THE WEEK AS PER THE EURO. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE EURO. A SURFACE LOW SHOWN OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DRIFT EAST AS A HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /77

&&

.MARINE...EARLY AFTERNOON MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS EXPECTED OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND THE
OPEN NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SEAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  79  52  80  55 /  00  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   56  80  54  80  60 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      59  78  56  80  63 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  78  47  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  45  78  46  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      46  78  48  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   45  80  50  82  52 /  00  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 192315 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IL/IN AND WESTERN
KY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RANGING IN THE MID 70S AS OF 2
PM CDT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A DRY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. WE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE 50S NEAR THE
COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S.
MONDAY...WITH DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY.
/21

[MONDAY  NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH ALONG A
LINE FROM LAKE HURON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TO THE EAST BUT DEEPEN...WINDING UP WITH CLOSED CONTOURS
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK TO VIRGINIA. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION BY VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FLAT ALONG A SADDLE POINT AS IT ADJOINS THE TRADE WIND REGION
OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

LOWS WILL DEPART FROM SEASONAL BY ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST AND 6 TO 10 DEGREES INLAND TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW SEASONAL. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND 5 OR SO DEGREES INLAND. /77

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN
THE WEEK AS PER THE EURO. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE EURO. A SURFACE LOW SHOWN OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DRIFT EAST AS A HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /77

&&

.MARINE...EARLY AFTERNOON MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS EXPECTED OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND THE
OPEN NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SEAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  79  52  80  55 /  00  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   56  80  54  80  60 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      59  78  56  80  63 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  78  47  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  45  78  46  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      46  78  48  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   45  80  50  82  52 /  00  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 192315 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IL/IN AND WESTERN
KY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RANGING IN THE MID 70S AS OF 2
PM CDT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A DRY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. WE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE 50S NEAR THE
COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S.
MONDAY...WITH DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY.
/21

[MONDAY  NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH ALONG A
LINE FROM LAKE HURON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TO THE EAST BUT DEEPEN...WINDING UP WITH CLOSED CONTOURS
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK TO VIRGINIA. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION BY VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FLAT ALONG A SADDLE POINT AS IT ADJOINS THE TRADE WIND REGION
OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

LOWS WILL DEPART FROM SEASONAL BY ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST AND 6 TO 10 DEGREES INLAND TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW SEASONAL. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND 5 OR SO DEGREES INLAND. /77

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN
THE WEEK AS PER THE EURO. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE EURO. A SURFACE LOW SHOWN OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DRIFT EAST AS A HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /77

&&

.MARINE...EARLY AFTERNOON MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS EXPECTED OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND THE
OPEN NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SEAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  79  52  80  55 /  00  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   56  80  54  80  60 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      59  78  56  80  63 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  78  47  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  45  78  46  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      46  78  48  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   45  80  50  82  52 /  00  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 192302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 192302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 192302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 192302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 192035
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
335 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IL/IN AND WESTERN
KY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RANGING IN THE MID 70S AS OF 2
PM CDT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A DRY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. WE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE 50S NEAR THE
COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S.
MONDAY...WITH DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY.
/21

[MONDAY  NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH ALONG A
LINE FROM LAKE HURON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TO THE EAST BUT DEEPEN...WINDING UP WITH CLOSED CONTOURS
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK TO VIRGINIA. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION BY VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FLAT ALONG A SADDLE POINT AS IT ADJOINS THE TRADE WIND REGION
OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

LOWS WILL DEPART FROM SEASONAL BY ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST AND 6 TO 10 DEGREES INLAND TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW SEASONAL. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND 5 OR SO DEGREES INLAND. /77

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN
THE WEEK AS PER THE EURO. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE EURO. A SURFACE LOW SHOWN OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DRIFT EAST AS A HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /77

&&

.AVIATION...
19.18Z ISSUANCE...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY 20.00Z.
/21

&&

.MARINE...EARLY AFTERNOON MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS EXPECTED OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND THE
OPEN NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SEAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  79  52  80  55 /  00  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   56  80  54  80  60 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      59  78  56  80  63 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  78  47  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  45  78  46  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      46  78  48  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   45  80  50  82  52 /  00  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 192035
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
335 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IL/IN AND WESTERN
KY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RANGING IN THE MID 70S AS OF 2
PM CDT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A DRY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. WE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE 50S NEAR THE
COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S.
MONDAY...WITH DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY.
/21

[MONDAY  NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH ALONG A
LINE FROM LAKE HURON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TO THE EAST BUT DEEPEN...WINDING UP WITH CLOSED CONTOURS
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK TO VIRGINIA. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION BY VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FLAT ALONG A SADDLE POINT AS IT ADJOINS THE TRADE WIND REGION
OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

LOWS WILL DEPART FROM SEASONAL BY ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST AND 6 TO 10 DEGREES INLAND TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW SEASONAL. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND 5 OR SO DEGREES INLAND. /77

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN
THE WEEK AS PER THE EURO. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE EURO. A SURFACE LOW SHOWN OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DRIFT EAST AS A HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /77

&&

.AVIATION...
19.18Z ISSUANCE...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY 20.00Z.
/21

&&

.MARINE...EARLY AFTERNOON MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS EXPECTED OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND THE
OPEN NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SEAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  79  52  80  55 /  00  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   56  80  54  80  60 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      59  78  56  80  63 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  78  47  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  45  78  46  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      46  78  48  80  50 /  00  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   45  80  50  82  52 /  00  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 192000
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN FULL FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOSED BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS.

58

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     41  73  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    44  74  49  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  75  50  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  45  76  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  74  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  74  53  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  78  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        45  77  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/58






000
FXUS64 KBMX 192000
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN FULL FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOSED BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS.

58

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     41  73  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    44  74  49  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  75  50  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  45  76  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  74  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  74  53  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  78  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        45  77  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/58






000
FXUS64 KBMX 192000
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN FULL FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOSED BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS.

58

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     41  73  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    44  74  49  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  75  50  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  45  76  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  74  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  74  53  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  78  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        45  77  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/58






000
FXUS64 KBMX 192000
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN FULL FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOSED BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS.

58

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     41  73  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    44  74  49  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  75  50  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  45  76  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  74  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  74  53  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  78  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        45  77  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/58






000
FXUS64 KHUN 191902
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU
THIS EVENING, WHEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    44  72  49  72 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        43  73  48  72 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      45  71  49  72 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  70  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   45  69  48  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    43  71  46  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191902
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU
THIS EVENING, WHEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    44  72  49  72 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        43  73  48  72 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      45  71  49  72 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  70  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   45  69  48  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    43  71  46  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191902
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU
THIS EVENING, WHEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    44  72  49  72 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        43  73  48  72 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      45  71  49  72 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  70  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   45  69  48  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    43  71  46  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191902
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU
THIS EVENING, WHEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    44  72  49  72 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        43  73  48  72 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      45  71  49  72 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  70  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   45  69  48  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    43  71  46  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 191749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AND NO RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MENTIONED WITH THIS FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR ANOTHER WEEK OR SO. A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY...BUT IS UPPER LEVEL DOMINATED AND WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

75

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL GUIDE OUR WEATHER PATTERN
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL KEEP A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A FEW WAVES RE-ENHANCING THE
TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. A LOW EVEN CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD TO OUR WEST AND
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WHILE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE 40 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...
BUT NOTHING HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY THIS PERIOD AND HOVER
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

OF NOTE...FINE MOISTURE DEMARCATION ZONE WILL EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY DOWN THERE...BUT WILL REMAIN
REMOVED FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     41  73  46  74  46 /   0   0  10  10   0
ANNISTON    44  74  49  75  47 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  74  52  75  48 /   0   0  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  45  77  49  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  75  51  76  49 /   0   0  10   0   0
AUBURN      48  74  53  75  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  78  52  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        45  77  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 191749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AND NO RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MENTIONED WITH THIS FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR ANOTHER WEEK OR SO. A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY...BUT IS UPPER LEVEL DOMINATED AND WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

75

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL GUIDE OUR WEATHER PATTERN
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL KEEP A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A FEW WAVES RE-ENHANCING THE
TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. A LOW EVEN CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD TO OUR WEST AND
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WHILE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE 40 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...
BUT NOTHING HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY THIS PERIOD AND HOVER
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

OF NOTE...FINE MOISTURE DEMARCATION ZONE WILL EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY DOWN THERE...BUT WILL REMAIN
REMOVED FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     41  73  46  74  46 /   0   0  10  10   0
ANNISTON    44  74  49  75  47 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  74  52  75  48 /   0   0  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  45  77  49  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  75  51  76  49 /   0   0  10   0   0
AUBURN      48  74  53  75  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  78  52  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        45  77  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 191735 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
19.18Z DISCUSSION...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS BY 20.00Z. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AN UPPER TROF PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WITH
A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW HAVING DROPPED SOUTHWARD TO OFF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A BAND OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BACK EDGE OF THESE
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT RANGE WEATHER MODELS. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...FORECAST CALLS FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...MID/UPPER 70S. FOR TONIGHT...UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOWS WITH
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR...MID/UPPER 50S BEACHES. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER AND MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
EXITS THE PLAINS STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ON MONDAY WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION
OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 76 TO 80 DEGREES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...RANGING FROM 78 TO 82 DEGREES.
/22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS  MID SECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN THE WEEK.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM 43 TO 51 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 52 TO 57 DEGREES
ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION...
19.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEAST WIND 8 TO 13 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z...FORECAST TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. /10

MARINE...A FEW OF THE LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A MARGINAL NORTHEAST WIND RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEED
NOTED ON HIGH RESOLUTION GRAPHS OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERWAYS. OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS...THERE HAS BEEN AN
UPWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. OVERALL...WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT CAUTION HEADLINES THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW
DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST TO OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. WITH GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING NEXT LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE
PREVAILING FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

TO THE SOUTH...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD TROF OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE DIFFERENCE IN
PRESSURE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH RESULTS IN A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT/SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 20 TO
60 NAUTICAL MILE ZONES LATE IN THE FORECAST. SEAS HIGHER WELL
OFFSHORE. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  51  79  53  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   77  56  80  59  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      76  59  78  60  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  45  78  46  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  76  42  78  46  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      75  45  77  47  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   78  45  80  49  82 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 191735 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
19.18Z DISCUSSION...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS BY 20.00Z. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AN UPPER TROF PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WITH
A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW HAVING DROPPED SOUTHWARD TO OFF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A BAND OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BACK EDGE OF THESE
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT RANGE WEATHER MODELS. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...FORECAST CALLS FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...MID/UPPER 70S. FOR TONIGHT...UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOWS WITH
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR...MID/UPPER 50S BEACHES. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER AND MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
EXITS THE PLAINS STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ON MONDAY WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION
OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 76 TO 80 DEGREES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...RANGING FROM 78 TO 82 DEGREES.
/22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS  MID SECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN THE WEEK.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM 43 TO 51 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 52 TO 57 DEGREES
ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION...
19.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEAST WIND 8 TO 13 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z...FORECAST TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. /10

MARINE...A FEW OF THE LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A MARGINAL NORTHEAST WIND RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEED
NOTED ON HIGH RESOLUTION GRAPHS OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERWAYS. OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS...THERE HAS BEEN AN
UPWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. OVERALL...WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT CAUTION HEADLINES THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW
DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST TO OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. WITH GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING NEXT LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE
PREVAILING FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

TO THE SOUTH...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD TROF OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE DIFFERENCE IN
PRESSURE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH RESULTS IN A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT/SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 20 TO
60 NAUTICAL MILE ZONES LATE IN THE FORECAST. SEAS HIGHER WELL
OFFSHORE. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  51  79  53  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   77  56  80  59  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      76  59  78  60  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  45  78  46  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  76  42  78  46  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      75  45  77  47  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   78  45  80  49  82 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 191732 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 927 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE CWFA. A FEW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A DEPARTING
TROF EXITING THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST.
AT THE SFC, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE OH
VALLEY, KEEPING LIGHT E/NE WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWFA YESTERDAY IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA, SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX.

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE: NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU
THIS EVENING, WHEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191732 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 927 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE CWFA. A FEW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A DEPARTING
TROF EXITING THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST.
AT THE SFC, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE OH
VALLEY, KEEPING LIGHT E/NE WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWFA YESTERDAY IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA, SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX.

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE: NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU
THIS EVENING, WHEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191427 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
927 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE CWFA. A FEW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A DEPARTING
TROF EXITING THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST.
AT THE SFC, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE OH
VALLEY, KEEPING LIGHT E/NE WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWFA YESTERDAY IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA, SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX.

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE: NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 628 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191427 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
927 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE CWFA. A FEW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A DEPARTING
TROF EXITING THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST.
AT THE SFC, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE OH
VALLEY, KEEPING LIGHT E/NE WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWFA YESTERDAY IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA, SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX.

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE: NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 628 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191427 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
927 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE CWFA. A FEW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A DEPARTING
TROF EXITING THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST.
AT THE SFC, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE OH
VALLEY, KEEPING LIGHT E/NE WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWFA YESTERDAY IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA, SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX.

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE: NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 628 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191427 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
927 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE CWFA. A FEW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A DEPARTING
TROF EXITING THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST.
AT THE SFC, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE OH
VALLEY, KEEPING LIGHT E/NE WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWFA YESTERDAY IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA, SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX.

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE: NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 628 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191128 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
628 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191128 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
628 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191128 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
628 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191128 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
628 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 191121
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AND NO RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MENTIONED WITH THIS FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR ANOTHER WEEK OR SO. A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY...BUT IS UPPER LEVEL DOMINATED AND WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

75

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL GUIDE OUR WEATHER PATTERN
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL KEEP A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A FEW WAVES RE-ENHANCING THE
TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. A LOW EVEN CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD TO OUR WEST AND
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WHILE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE 40 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...
BUT NOTHING HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY THIS PERIOD AND HOVER
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

OF NOTE...FINE MOISTURE DEMARCATION ZONE WILL EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY DOWN THERE...BUT WILL REMAIN
REMOVED FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  73  46  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    69  44  74  49  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  46  74  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  71  45  77  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      70  46  75  51  76 /   0   0   0  10   0
AUBURN      71  48  74  53  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  73  47  78  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        72  45  77  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191121
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AND NO RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MENTIONED WITH THIS FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR ANOTHER WEEK OR SO. A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY...BUT IS UPPER LEVEL DOMINATED AND WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

75

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL GUIDE OUR WEATHER PATTERN
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL KEEP A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A FEW WAVES RE-ENHANCING THE
TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. A LOW EVEN CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD TO OUR WEST AND
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WHILE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE 40 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...
BUT NOTHING HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY THIS PERIOD AND HOVER
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

OF NOTE...FINE MOISTURE DEMARCATION ZONE WILL EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY DOWN THERE...BUT WILL REMAIN
REMOVED FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  73  46  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    69  44  74  49  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  46  74  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  71  45  77  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      70  46  75  51  76 /   0   0   0  10   0
AUBURN      71  48  74  53  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  73  47  78  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        72  45  77  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 190900
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AND NO RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MENTIONED WITH THIS FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR ANOTHER WEEK OR SO. A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY...BUT IS UPPER LEVEL DOMINATED AND WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

75

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL GUIDE OUR WEATHER PATTERN
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL KEEP A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A FEW WAVES RE-ENHANCING THE
TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. A LOW EVEN CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD TO OUR WEST AND
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WHILE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE 40 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...
BUT NOTHING HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY THIS PERIOD AND HOVER
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

OF NOTE...FINE MOISTURE DEMARCATION ZONE WILL EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY DOWN THERE...BUT WILL REMAIN
REMOVED FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  73  46  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    69  44  74  49  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  46  74  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  71  45  77  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      70  46  75  51  76 /   0   0   0  10   0
AUBURN      71  48  74  53  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  73  47  78  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        72  45  77  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 190900
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AND NO RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MENTIONED WITH THIS FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR ANOTHER WEEK OR SO. A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY...BUT IS UPPER LEVEL DOMINATED AND WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

75

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL GUIDE OUR WEATHER PATTERN
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL KEEP A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A FEW WAVES RE-ENHANCING THE
TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. A LOW EVEN CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD TO OUR WEST AND
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WHILE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE 40 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...
BUT NOTHING HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY THIS PERIOD AND HOVER
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

OF NOTE...FINE MOISTURE DEMARCATION ZONE WILL EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY DOWN THERE...BUT WILL REMAIN
REMOVED FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  73  46  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    69  44  74  49  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  46  74  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  71  45  77  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      70  46  75  51  76 /   0   0   0  10   0
AUBURN      71  48  74  53  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  73  47  78  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        72  45  77  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 190855
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AN UPPER TROF PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WITH
A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW HAVING DROPPED SOUTHWARD TO OFF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A BAND OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BACK EDGE OF THESE
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT RANGE WEATHER MODELS. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...FORECAST CALLS FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...MID/UPPER 70S. FOR TONIGHT...UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOWS WITH
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR...MID/UPPER 50S BEACHES. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER AND MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
EXITS THE PLAINS STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ON MONDAY WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION
OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 76 TO 80 DEGREES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...RANGING FROM 78 TO 82 DEGREES.
/22

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS  MID SECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN THE WEEK.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM 43 TO 51 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 52 TO 57 DEGREES
ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
19.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEAST WIND 8 TO 13 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z...FORECAST TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.MARINE...A FEW OF THE LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A MARGINAL NORTHEAST WIND RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEED
NOTED ON HIGH RESOLUTION GRAPHS OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERWAYS. OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS...THERE HAS BEEN AN
UPWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. OVERALL...WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT CAUTION HEADLINES THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW
DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST TO OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. WITH GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING NEXT LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE
PREVAILING FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

TO THE SOUTH...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD TROF OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE DIFFERENCE IN
PRESSURE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH RESULTS IN A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT/SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 20 TO
60 NAUTICAL MILE ZONES LATE IN THE FORECAST. SEAS HIGHER WELL
OFFSHORE. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  51  79  53  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   77  56  80  59  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      76  59  78  60  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  45  78  46  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  76  42  78  46  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      75  45  77  47  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   78  45  80  49  82 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 190855
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AN UPPER TROF PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WITH
A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW HAVING DROPPED SOUTHWARD TO OFF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A BAND OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BACK EDGE OF THESE
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT RANGE WEATHER MODELS. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...FORECAST CALLS FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...MID/UPPER 70S. FOR TONIGHT...UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOWS WITH
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR...MID/UPPER 50S BEACHES. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER AND MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
EXITS THE PLAINS STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ON MONDAY WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION
OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 76 TO 80 DEGREES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...RANGING FROM 78 TO 82 DEGREES.
/22

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS  MID SECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN THE WEEK.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM 43 TO 51 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 52 TO 57 DEGREES
ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
19.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEAST WIND 8 TO 13 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z...FORECAST TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.MARINE...A FEW OF THE LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A MARGINAL NORTHEAST WIND RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEED
NOTED ON HIGH RESOLUTION GRAPHS OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERWAYS. OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS...THERE HAS BEEN AN
UPWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. OVERALL...WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT CAUTION HEADLINES THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW
DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST TO OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. WITH GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING NEXT LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE
PREVAILING FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

TO THE SOUTH...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD TROF OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE DIFFERENCE IN
PRESSURE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH RESULTS IN A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT/SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 20 TO
60 NAUTICAL MILE ZONES LATE IN THE FORECAST. SEAS HIGHER WELL
OFFSHORE. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  51  79  53  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   77  56  80  59  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      76  59  78  60  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  45  78  46  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  76  42  78  46  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      75  45  77  47  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   78  45  80  49  82 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 190840
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT N-NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  44  72  49 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        68  43  73  48 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      68  45  71  49 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  65  43  70  47 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   66  45  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    69  43  71  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 190840
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT N-NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  44  72  49 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        68  43  73  48 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      68  45  71  49 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  65  43  70  47 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   66  45  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    69  43  71  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 190455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 22-23 KNOTS AT DPIA1 AND
MBLA1 BUT BASED ON DECREASING WINDS SHOWN IN HIGH RESOLUTION GRAPH OF
WIND SPEEDS AT MBLA1 AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE SURGE OF HIGHER
WINDS NOTED AT LAND ASOS STATIONS...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND KEEP SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IN
PLACE. WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NECESSARY. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT
INCREASING SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. /29

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL. /77

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 190455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 22-23 KNOTS AT DPIA1 AND
MBLA1 BUT BASED ON DECREASING WINDS SHOWN IN HIGH RESOLUTION GRAPH OF
WIND SPEEDS AT MBLA1 AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE SURGE OF HIGHER
WINDS NOTED AT LAND ASOS STATIONS...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND KEEP SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IN
PLACE. WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NECESSARY. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT
INCREASING SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. /29

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL. /77

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 190455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 22-23 KNOTS AT DPIA1 AND
MBLA1 BUT BASED ON DECREASING WINDS SHOWN IN HIGH RESOLUTION GRAPH OF
WIND SPEEDS AT MBLA1 AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE SURGE OF HIGHER
WINDS NOTED AT LAND ASOS STATIONS...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND KEEP SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IN
PLACE. WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NECESSARY. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT
INCREASING SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. /29

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL. /77

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 190455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 22-23 KNOTS AT DPIA1 AND
MBLA1 BUT BASED ON DECREASING WINDS SHOWN IN HIGH RESOLUTION GRAPH OF
WIND SPEEDS AT MBLA1 AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE SURGE OF HIGHER
WINDS NOTED AT LAND ASOS STATIONS...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND KEEP SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IN
PLACE. WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NECESSARY. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT
INCREASING SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. /29

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL. /77

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 190455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 22-23 KNOTS AT DPIA1 AND
MBLA1 BUT BASED ON DECREASING WINDS SHOWN IN HIGH RESOLUTION GRAPH OF
WIND SPEEDS AT MBLA1 AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE SURGE OF HIGHER
WINDS NOTED AT LAND ASOS STATIONS...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND KEEP SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IN
PLACE. WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NECESSARY. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT
INCREASING SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. /29

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL. /77

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 190455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 22-23 KNOTS AT DPIA1 AND
MBLA1 BUT BASED ON DECREASING WINDS SHOWN IN HIGH RESOLUTION GRAPH OF
WIND SPEEDS AT MBLA1 AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE SURGE OF HIGHER
WINDS NOTED AT LAND ASOS STATIONS...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND KEEP SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IN
PLACE. WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NECESSARY. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT
INCREASING SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. /29

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL. /77

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 190453 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT N-NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190453 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT N-NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190453 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT N-NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 190453 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT N-NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 190441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ONLY THING
TO NOTE IS HIGH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND THE
BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
NO MAJOR CHANGES. ONLY TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON
TRENDS...BUT LOWS LOOK FINE.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 190441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ONLY THING
TO NOTE IS HIGH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND THE
BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
NO MAJOR CHANGES. ONLY TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON
TRENDS...BUT LOWS LOOK FINE.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 190441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ONLY THING
TO NOTE IS HIGH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND THE
BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
NO MAJOR CHANGES. ONLY TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON
TRENDS...BUT LOWS LOOK FINE.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 190441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ONLY THING
TO NOTE IS HIGH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND THE
BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
NO MAJOR CHANGES. ONLY TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON
TRENDS...BUT LOWS LOOK FINE.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 190248 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
948 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ONLY THING
TO NOTE IS HIGH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND THE
BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
NO MAJOR CHANGES. ONLY TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON
TRENDS...BUT LOWS LOOK FINE.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 322 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS A
SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT WILL ALSO PASS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH AN ABSENCE
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    46  71  45  73  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  46  71  47  74  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  46  73  46  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  71  48  74  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  72  50  74  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  49  75  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  74  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/61/87





000
FXUS64 KBMX 190248 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
948 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ONLY THING
TO NOTE IS HIGH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND THE
BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
NO MAJOR CHANGES. ONLY TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON
TRENDS...BUT LOWS LOOK FINE.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 322 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS A
SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT WILL ALSO PASS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH AN ABSENCE
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    46  71  45  73  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  46  71  47  74  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  46  73  46  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  71  48  74  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  72  50  74  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  49  75  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  74  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/61/87






000
FXUS64 KHUN 190121 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST SKY COVER TRENDS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
FEW-SCT CLDS AT 050AGL DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THRU THE PD WITH LIGHT NE FLOW ON SUNDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190121 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST SKY COVER TRENDS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
FEW-SCT CLDS AT 050AGL DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THRU THE PD WITH LIGHT NE FLOW ON SUNDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190121 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST SKY COVER TRENDS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
FEW-SCT CLDS AT 050AGL DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THRU THE PD WITH LIGHT NE FLOW ON SUNDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190121 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST SKY COVER TRENDS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
FEW-SCT CLDS AT 050AGL DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THRU THE PD WITH LIGHT NE FLOW ON SUNDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 182353
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS A
SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT WILL ALSO PASS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH AN ABSENCE
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 182353
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS A
SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT WILL ALSO PASS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH AN ABSENCE
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 182329 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
629 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NECESSARY. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT
INCREASING SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL. /77

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 182329 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
629 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NECESSARY. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT
INCREASING SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL. /77

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 182329 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
629 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NECESSARY. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT
INCREASING SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL. /77

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 182329 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
629 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NECESSARY. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT
INCREASING SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL. /77

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 182327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES/SATELLITE DATA
SUGGESTING A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ENHANCED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A
MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEGATE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY
BE A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...AND HAVE INCREASED FORECASTED
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE A
COOL START TO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY...BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT QUICKLY
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BUT 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE 10-12C RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH
WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET ANOTHER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S. BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION. DESPITE A GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM /PWATS ONLY REACHING 0.6-0.9 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/ AND
WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 10 POP IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FROST MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF WINDS
MANAGE TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DISAGREE WITH EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GFS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NW GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS AS IF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS A LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
FEW-SCT CLDS AT 050AGL DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THRU THE PD WITH LIGHT NE FLOW ON SUNDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 182110
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]..THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE  UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL. /77

&&

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

&&

.AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 182110
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]..THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE  UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL. /77

&&

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

&&

.AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 182106
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]..THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE  UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL.

/77

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
/77

.AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21


.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

.AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21


.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 182106
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]..THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE  UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL.

/77

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
/77

.AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21


.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

.AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21


.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 182058
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]..THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE  UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

LOWS AND HIGHS
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL.

/77

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
/77

.AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21


.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

.AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21


.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 182058
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]..THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE  UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

LOWS AND HIGHS
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF OH/IN/KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 0.35 TO
0.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN NIL. /21

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN WESTERLIES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE
PURSUIT...DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE SUNDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL.

/77

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
/77

.AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21


.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE REGION TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT IT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SKIES COULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES...AND DROP EVEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 48 TO 58 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /77

.AVIATION...
18.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS WITH BASES
RISING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. /21


.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20
NM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  77  50  79  56 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   58  75  54  79  59 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      61  74  64  75  69 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   47  75  46  79  51 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  48  76  43  79  45 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      46  75  47  77  50 /  00  00  00  05  00
CRESTVIEW   49  77  48  79  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 182022
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS A
SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT WILL ALSO PASS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH AN ABSENCE
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION FORECAST WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND AS A DRY FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW SCT HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NO REAL AVIATION CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO DON`T HAVE ANY LIGHT FOG CONCERNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT
THIS TIME.

17

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    46  71  45  73  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  46  71  47  74  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  46  73  46  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  71  48  74  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  72  50  74  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  49  75  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  74  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/17





000
FXUS64 KBMX 182022
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS A
SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT WILL ALSO PASS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH AN ABSENCE
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION FORECAST WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND AS A DRY FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW SCT HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NO REAL AVIATION CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO DON`T HAVE ANY LIGHT FOG CONCERNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT
THIS TIME.

17

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    46  71  45  73  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  46  71  47  74  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  46  73  46  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  71  48  74  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  72  50  74  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  49  75  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  74  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/17





000
FXUS64 KBMX 182022
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS A
SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT WILL ALSO PASS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH AN ABSENCE
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION FORECAST WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND AS A DRY FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW SCT HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NO REAL AVIATION CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO DON`T HAVE ANY LIGHT FOG CONCERNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT
THIS TIME.

17

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    46  71  45  73  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  46  71  47  74  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  46  73  46  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  71  48  74  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  72  50  74  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  49  75  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  74  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/17





000
FXUS64 KBMX 182022
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS A
SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT WILL ALSO PASS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH AN ABSENCE
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION FORECAST WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND AS A DRY FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW SCT HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NO REAL AVIATION CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO DON`T HAVE ANY LIGHT FOG CONCERNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT
THIS TIME.

17

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    46  71  45  73  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  46  71  47  74  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  46  73  46  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  71  48  74  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  72  50  74  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  49  75  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  74  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/17





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181946
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES/SATELLITE DATA
SUGGESTING A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ENHANCED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A
MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEGATE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY
BE A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...AND HAVE INCREASED FORECASTED
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE A
COOL START TO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY...BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT QUICKLY
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BUT 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE 10-12C RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH
WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET ANOTHER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S. BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION. DESPITE A GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM /PWATS ONLY REACHING 0.6-0.9 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/ AND
WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 10 POP IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FROST MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF WINDS
MANAGE TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DISAGREE WITH EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GFS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NW GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS AS IF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS A LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KHSV AND KMSL. NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS WILL DIMINISH
AT 00Z.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  67  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        45  68  43  73 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      45  68  45  71 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  65  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   44  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    43  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181946
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES/SATELLITE DATA
SUGGESTING A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ENHANCED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A
MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEGATE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY
BE A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...AND HAVE INCREASED FORECASTED
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE A
COOL START TO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY...BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT QUICKLY
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BUT 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE 10-12C RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH
WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET ANOTHER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S. BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION. DESPITE A GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM /PWATS ONLY REACHING 0.6-0.9 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/ AND
WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 10 POP IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FROST MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF WINDS
MANAGE TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DISAGREE WITH EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GFS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NW GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS AS IF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS A LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KHSV AND KMSL. NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS WILL DIMINISH
AT 00Z.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  67  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        45  68  43  73 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      45  68  45  71 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  65  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   44  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    43  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 181946
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES/SATELLITE DATA
SUGGESTING A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ENHANCED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A
MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEGATE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY
BE A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...AND HAVE INCREASED FORECASTED
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE A
COOL START TO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY...BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT QUICKLY
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BUT 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE 10-12C RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH
WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET ANOTHER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S. BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION. DESPITE A GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM /PWATS ONLY REACHING 0.6-0.9 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/ AND
WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 10 POP IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FROST MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF WINDS
MANAGE TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DISAGREE WITH EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GFS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NW GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS AS IF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS A LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KHSV AND KMSL. NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS WILL DIMINISH
AT 00Z.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  67  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        45  68  43  73 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      45  68  45  71 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  65  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   44  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    43  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181946
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES/SATELLITE DATA
SUGGESTING A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ENHANCED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A
MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEGATE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY
BE A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...AND HAVE INCREASED FORECASTED
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE A
COOL START TO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY...BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT QUICKLY
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BUT 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE 10-12C RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH
WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET ANOTHER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S. BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION. DESPITE A GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM /PWATS ONLY REACHING 0.6-0.9 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/ AND
WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 10 POP IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FROST MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF WINDS
MANAGE TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DISAGREE WITH EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GFS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NW GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS AS IF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS A LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KHSV AND KMSL. NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS WILL DIMINISH
AT 00Z.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  67  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        45  68  43  73 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      45  68  45  71 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  65  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   44  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    43  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181946
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES/SATELLITE DATA
SUGGESTING A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ENHANCED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A
MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEGATE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY
BE A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...AND HAVE INCREASED FORECASTED
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE A
COOL START TO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY...BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT QUICKLY
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BUT 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE 10-12C RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH
WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET ANOTHER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S. BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION. DESPITE A GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM /PWATS ONLY REACHING 0.6-0.9 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/ AND
WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 10 POP IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FROST MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF WINDS
MANAGE TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DISAGREE WITH EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GFS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NW GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS AS IF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS A LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KHSV AND KMSL. NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS WILL DIMINISH
AT 00Z.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  67  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        45  68  43  73 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      45  68  45  71 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  65  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   44  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    43  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181946
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES/SATELLITE DATA
SUGGESTING A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ENHANCED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A
MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEGATE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY
BE A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...AND HAVE INCREASED FORECASTED
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE A
COOL START TO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY...BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT QUICKLY
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BUT 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE 10-12C RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH
WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET ANOTHER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S. BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION. DESPITE A GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM /PWATS ONLY REACHING 0.6-0.9 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/ AND
WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 10 POP IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FROST MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF WINDS
MANAGE TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DISAGREE WITH EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GFS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NW GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS AS IF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS A LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KHSV AND KMSL. NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS WILL DIMINISH
AT 00Z.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  67  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        45  68  43  73 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      45  68  45  71 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  65  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   44  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    43  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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