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000
FXUS64 KMOB 270626 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
126 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST...WITH VISIBILITY EVEN LOCALLY DROPPING TO BELOW 1 MILE NEAR
KMOB. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE
RELEGATED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO
INLAND AREAS BEHIND SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PATCHY FOG
WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ALSO TO
ADJACENT BAYS/SOUNDS THROUGH 12Z. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 28.06. LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MON
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN SHIFT NE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
MON MORNING SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 28.06Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  80  65  79  56 /  20  40  70  60  20
PENSACOLA   67  79  68  77  60 /  20  40  80  60  20
DESTIN      69  76  69  79  64 /  30  30  80  70  20
EVERGREEN   61  79  61  79  58 /  10  20  40  70  50
WAYNESBORO  60  78  58  70  53 /  10  30  50  70  50
CAMDEN      59  78  58  73  56 /  05  20  30  70  60
CRESTVIEW   63  83  64  81  60 /  20  30  60  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270626 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
126 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST...WITH VISIBILITY EVEN LOCALLY DROPPING TO BELOW 1 MILE NEAR
KMOB. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE
RELEGATED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO
INLAND AREAS BEHIND SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PATCHY FOG
WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ALSO TO
ADJACENT BAYS/SOUNDS THROUGH 12Z. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 28.06. LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MON
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN SHIFT NE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
MON MORNING SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 28.06Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  80  65  79  56 /  20  40  70  60  20
PENSACOLA   67  79  68  77  60 /  20  40  80  60  20
DESTIN      69  76  69  79  64 /  30  30  80  70  20
EVERGREEN   61  79  61  79  58 /  10  20  40  70  50
WAYNESBORO  60  78  58  70  53 /  10  30  50  70  50
CAMDEN      59  78  58  73  56 /  05  20  30  70  60
CRESTVIEW   63  83  64  81  60 /  20  30  60  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270626 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
126 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST...WITH VISIBILITY EVEN LOCALLY DROPPING TO BELOW 1 MILE NEAR
KMOB. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE
RELEGATED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO
INLAND AREAS BEHIND SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PATCHY FOG
WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ALSO TO
ADJACENT BAYS/SOUNDS THROUGH 12Z. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 28.06. LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MON
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN SHIFT NE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
MON MORNING SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 28.06Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  80  65  79  56 /  20  40  70  60  20
PENSACOLA   67  79  68  77  60 /  20  40  80  60  20
DESTIN      69  76  69  79  64 /  30  30  80  70  20
EVERGREEN   61  79  61  79  58 /  10  20  40  70  50
WAYNESBORO  60  78  58  70  53 /  10  30  50  70  50
CAMDEN      59  78  58  73  56 /  05  20  30  70  60
CRESTVIEW   63  83  64  81  60 /  20  30  60  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 270626 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
126 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST...WITH VISIBILITY EVEN LOCALLY DROPPING TO BELOW 1 MILE NEAR
KMOB. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE
RELEGATED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO
INLAND AREAS BEHIND SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PATCHY FOG
WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ALSO TO
ADJACENT BAYS/SOUNDS THROUGH 12Z. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 28.06. LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MON
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN SHIFT NE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
MON MORNING SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 28.06Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  80  65  79  56 /  20  40  70  60  20
PENSACOLA   67  79  68  77  60 /  20  40  80  60  20
DESTIN      69  76  69  79  64 /  30  30  80  70  20
EVERGREEN   61  79  61  79  58 /  10  20  40  70  50
WAYNESBORO  60  78  58  70  53 /  10  30  50  70  50
CAMDEN      59  78  58  73  56 /  05  20  30  70  60
CRESTVIEW   63  83  64  81  60 /  20  30  60  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 270547 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1247 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 815 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
BAND OF CLOUDS IS ERODING QUICKLY ACROSS TN AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
AND SUBSIDING AIR PERSISTS. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER PER THIS TREND
WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME CI/CS
STREAKS MAY KEEP THE SKY PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST AT THIS HOUR WITH L-M50S IN SRN TN AND U50S IN
NRN AL. MIN TEMPS IN THE M-U40S NRN COUNTIES TO A50 SRN COUNTIES IS
ON TRACK.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT VFR CIGS BTWN 15-25 KFT THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NNE-NE AT 5-10 KTS. COMBINATION OF HIGH
CLOUDS AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL REDUCE THREAT FOR BR/FG COMPARED TO
POINTS TO THE NORTH.

TT/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 270516 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1216 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION... 27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 28.06. LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MON
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN SHIFT NE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
MON MORNING SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 28.06Z. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON]...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY AND NO MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORMS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. HIGHEST SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 150 TO 250 M2/S2. SOME THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE LINE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MONDAY WILL MAINLY BY IN THE 70S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65...AND FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE FORECAST AREA COMES
UNDER POST SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS/RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE DISORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
LEVELS.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  80  65  79  56 /  20  40  70  60  20
PENSACOLA   67  79  68  77  60 /  20  40  80  60  20
DESTIN      69  76  69  79  64 /  30  30  80  70  20
EVERGREEN   61  79  61  79  58 /  10  20  40  70  50
WAYNESBORO  60  78  58  70  53 /  10  30  50  70  50
CAMDEN      59  78  58  73  56 /  05  20  30  70  60
CRESTVIEW   63  83  64  81  60 /  20  30  60  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 270516 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1216 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION... 27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 28.06. LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MON
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN SHIFT NE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
MON MORNING SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 28.06Z. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON]...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY AND NO MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORMS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. HIGHEST SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 150 TO 250 M2/S2. SOME THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE LINE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MONDAY WILL MAINLY BY IN THE 70S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65...AND FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE FORECAST AREA COMES
UNDER POST SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS/RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE DISORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
LEVELS.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  80  65  79  56 /  20  40  70  60  20
PENSACOLA   67  79  68  77  60 /  20  40  80  60  20
DESTIN      69  76  69  79  64 /  30  30  80  70  20
EVERGREEN   61  79  61  79  58 /  10  20  40  70  50
WAYNESBORO  60  78  58  70  53 /  10  30  50  70  50
CAMDEN      59  78  58  73  56 /  05  20  30  70  60
CRESTVIEW   63  83  64  81  60 /  20  30  60  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270516 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1216 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION... 27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 28.06. LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MON
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN SHIFT NE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
MON MORNING SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 28.06Z. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON]...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY AND NO MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORMS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. HIGHEST SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 150 TO 250 M2/S2. SOME THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE LINE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MONDAY WILL MAINLY BY IN THE 70S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65...AND FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE FORECAST AREA COMES
UNDER POST SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS/RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE DISORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
LEVELS.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  80  65  79  56 /  20  40  70  60  20
PENSACOLA   67  79  68  77  60 /  20  40  80  60  20
DESTIN      69  76  69  79  64 /  30  30  80  70  20
EVERGREEN   61  79  61  79  58 /  10  20  40  70  50
WAYNESBORO  60  78  58  70  53 /  10  30  50  70  50
CAMDEN      59  78  58  73  56 /  05  20  30  70  60
CRESTVIEW   63  83  64  81  60 /  20  30  60  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 270516 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1216 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION... 27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 28.06. LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MON
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN SHIFT NE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
MON MORNING SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 28.06Z. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON]...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY AND NO MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORMS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. HIGHEST SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 150 TO 250 M2/S2. SOME THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE LINE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MONDAY WILL MAINLY BY IN THE 70S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65...AND FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE FORECAST AREA COMES
UNDER POST SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS/RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE DISORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
LEVELS.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  80  65  79  56 /  20  40  70  60  20
PENSACOLA   67  79  68  77  60 /  20  40  80  60  20
DESTIN      69  76  69  79  64 /  30  30  80  70  20
EVERGREEN   61  79  61  79  58 /  10  20  40  70  50
WAYNESBORO  60  78  58  70  53 /  10  30  50  70  50
CAMDEN      59  78  58  73  56 /  05  20  30  70  60
CRESTVIEW   63  83  64  81  60 /  20  30  60  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 270516 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1216 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION... 27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 28.06. LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MON
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN SHIFT NE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
MON MORNING SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 28.06Z. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON]...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY AND NO MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORMS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. HIGHEST SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 150 TO 250 M2/S2. SOME THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE LINE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MONDAY WILL MAINLY BY IN THE 70S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65...AND FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE FORECAST AREA COMES
UNDER POST SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS/RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE DISORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
LEVELS.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  80  65  79  56 /  20  40  70  60  20
PENSACOLA   67  79  68  77  60 /  20  40  80  60  20
DESTIN      69  76  69  79  64 /  30  30  80  70  20
EVERGREEN   61  79  61  79  58 /  10  20  40  70  50
WAYNESBORO  60  78  58  70  53 /  10  30  50  70  50
CAMDEN      59  78  58  73  56 /  05  20  30  70  60
CRESTVIEW   63  83  64  81  60 /  20  30  60  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 270516 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1216 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION... 27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 28.06. LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MON
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN SHIFT NE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
MON MORNING SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 28.06Z. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON]...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY AND NO MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORMS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. HIGHEST SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 150 TO 250 M2/S2. SOME THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE LINE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MONDAY WILL MAINLY BY IN THE 70S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65...AND FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE FORECAST AREA COMES
UNDER POST SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS/RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE DISORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
LEVELS.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  80  65  79  56 /  20  40  70  60  20
PENSACOLA   67  79  68  77  60 /  20  40  80  60  20
DESTIN      69  76  69  79  64 /  30  30  80  70  20
EVERGREEN   61  79  61  79  58 /  10  20  40  70  50
WAYNESBORO  60  78  58  70  53 /  10  30  50  70  50
CAMDEN      59  78  58  73  56 /  05  20  30  70  60
CRESTVIEW   63  83  64  81  60 /  20  30  60  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 270503
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1202 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH HERE AT THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT. WINDS ARE GUSTING FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES
ARE BEGINNING TO DROP. THERE IS CURRENTLY A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. THERE IS A BAND
OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA...WINDS ARE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED. AN AREA
OF MVFR CIG IS MOVING SOUTHWARD...WITH BKN CIGS AFFECTING
BHM..ASN..AND EET...SCT AT ANB AND TCL. STRATUS SHOWING A
DIMINISHING TREND AND DO NOT EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO MAKE IT TO MGM AND
TOI.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SPRING...
ALABAMA CAN ONLY MANAGE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
NEXT RAIN EVENT HITS THE REGION. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS ALABAMA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AS A GULF LOW FORMS NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE ONSET OF RAIN ON TUESDAY...AN RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKE A LATE WINTER SET-UP
WITH A DEEPENING GULF LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A COOL AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS
ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER PENETRATES INLAND.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 DUE TO
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
TROF. A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 270254
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
954 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH HERE AT THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT. WINDS ARE GUSTING FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES
ARE BEGINNING TO DROP. THERE IS CURRENTLY A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LASTEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. THERE IS A BAND
OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND INCREASING TO 6-
10KTS MONDAY MORNING.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SPRING...
ALABAMA CAN ONLY MANAGE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
NEXT RAIN EVENT HITS THE REGION. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS ALABAMA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AS A GULF LOW FORMS NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE ONSET OF RAIN ON TUESDAY...AN RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKE A LATE WINTER SET-UP
WITH A DEEPENING GULF LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A COOL AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS
ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER PENETRATES INLAND.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 DUE TO
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
TROF. A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 270254
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
954 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH HERE AT THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT. WINDS ARE GUSTING FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES
ARE BEGINNING TO DROP. THERE IS CURRENTLY A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LASTEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. THERE IS A BAND
OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND INCREASING TO 6-
10KTS MONDAY MORNING.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SPRING...
ALABAMA CAN ONLY MANAGE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
NEXT RAIN EVENT HITS THE REGION. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS ALABAMA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AS A GULF LOW FORMS NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE ONSET OF RAIN ON TUESDAY...AN RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKE A LATE WINTER SET-UP
WITH A DEEPENING GULF LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A COOL AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS
ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER PENETRATES INLAND.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 DUE TO
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
TROF. A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270254
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
954 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH HERE AT THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT. WINDS ARE GUSTING FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES
ARE BEGINNING TO DROP. THERE IS CURRENTLY A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LASTEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. THERE IS A BAND
OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND INCREASING TO 6-
10KTS MONDAY MORNING.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SPRING...
ALABAMA CAN ONLY MANAGE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
NEXT RAIN EVENT HITS THE REGION. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS ALABAMA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AS A GULF LOW FORMS NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE ONSET OF RAIN ON TUESDAY...AN RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKE A LATE WINTER SET-UP
WITH A DEEPENING GULF LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A COOL AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS
ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER PENETRATES INLAND.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 DUE TO
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
TROF. A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 270115 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
815 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.
&&


.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF CLOUDS IS ERODING QUICKLY ACROSS TN AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
AND SUBSIDING AIR PERSISTS. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER PER THIS TREND
WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME CI/CS
STREAKS MAY KEEP THE SKY PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST AT THIS HOUR WITH L-M50S IN SRN TN AND U50S IN
NRN AL. MIN TEMPS IN THE M-U40S NRN COUNTIES TO A50 SRN COUNTIES IS
ON TRACK.

AK

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN BETWEEN A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS, AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS CENTERED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (INDUCING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHING
FROM BAJA CA TO THE GULF STREAM) AND ITS CUTTING OFF FROM THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, ANTICIPATING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS
WEEK WHEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS OVER
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST.

SL.77
&&


.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 601 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... COLD FRONT HAS SLID JUST S OF KMSL AND KHSV SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE AL-TN STATE LINE AND WILL TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS ALSO ERODING
THESE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN TN AND WILL DO SO FURTHER SOUTH IN AL
LATE THIS EVENING. THUS, FORECASTING A CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS
BY 07Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PASSED OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A BELT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ORIENTED W TO E FROM THE
CORN BELT TO TN TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD HAS GRADUALLY ENCROACHED
NORTH ALABAMA WITH SOME EROSION PRESENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOMENTUM MIXING OF DRY AIR. FOR TONIGHT,
LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FURTHER WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. WITH WEAK CAA IN PLACE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING CLOSE TO THE SFC AIR TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THIS INGREDIENT
ALONE WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG, SFC WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION.

THEN, ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DE-AMPLIFIED BETWEEN
THIS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST AND THE MEAN TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO NEGATE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX AND
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MEAN TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE MEANDERS EAST. THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INDUCING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS, HAVE PULLED POPS/WX BACK ON THE 06Z-12Z
(MONDAY NIGHT) AND THE 12Z-18Z (TUESDAY MORNING) TIME FRAME. WITHOUT
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY (EITHER SB OR ELEVATED), HAVE RETAINED
RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. FURTHERMORE, AS THE
CUTOFF LOW OPENS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ITS EASTERN
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF LA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR DUE TO THE GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW (ALONG THE GULF COAST).
COMBINE THIS WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE AND STRONGER LIFT (DEEPENING
LOW) DEVELOPS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT SOME
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY MORNING TO
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NE AL/S MIDDLE TN. THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BECOMES RATHER
CHAOTIC ON THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT
NOT ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ANY OF THE IMPULSES THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY THIS WEEKEND TRANSLATING
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270115 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
815 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.
&&


.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF CLOUDS IS ERODING QUICKLY ACROSS TN AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
AND SUBSIDING AIR PERSISTS. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER PER THIS TREND
WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME CI/CS
STREAKS MAY KEEP THE SKY PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST AT THIS HOUR WITH L-M50S IN SRN TN AND U50S IN
NRN AL. MIN TEMPS IN THE M-U40S NRN COUNTIES TO A50 SRN COUNTIES IS
ON TRACK.

AK

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN BETWEEN A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS, AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS CENTERED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (INDUCING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHING
FROM BAJA CA TO THE GULF STREAM) AND ITS CUTTING OFF FROM THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, ANTICIPATING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS
WEEK WHEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS OVER
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST.

SL.77
&&


.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 601 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... COLD FRONT HAS SLID JUST S OF KMSL AND KHSV SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE AL-TN STATE LINE AND WILL TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS ALSO ERODING
THESE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN TN AND WILL DO SO FURTHER SOUTH IN AL
LATE THIS EVENING. THUS, FORECASTING A CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS
BY 07Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PASSED OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A BELT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ORIENTED W TO E FROM THE
CORN BELT TO TN TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD HAS GRADUALLY ENCROACHED
NORTH ALABAMA WITH SOME EROSION PRESENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOMENTUM MIXING OF DRY AIR. FOR TONIGHT,
LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FURTHER WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. WITH WEAK CAA IN PLACE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING CLOSE TO THE SFC AIR TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THIS INGREDIENT
ALONE WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG, SFC WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION.

THEN, ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DE-AMPLIFIED BETWEEN
THIS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST AND THE MEAN TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO NEGATE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX AND
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MEAN TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE MEANDERS EAST. THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INDUCING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS, HAVE PULLED POPS/WX BACK ON THE 06Z-12Z
(MONDAY NIGHT) AND THE 12Z-18Z (TUESDAY MORNING) TIME FRAME. WITHOUT
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY (EITHER SB OR ELEVATED), HAVE RETAINED
RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. FURTHERMORE, AS THE
CUTOFF LOW OPENS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ITS EASTERN
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF LA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR DUE TO THE GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW (ALONG THE GULF COAST).
COMBINE THIS WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE AND STRONGER LIFT (DEEPENING
LOW) DEVELOPS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT SOME
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY MORNING TO
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NE AL/S MIDDLE TN. THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BECOMES RATHER
CHAOTIC ON THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT
NOT ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ANY OF THE IMPULSES THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY THIS WEEKEND TRANSLATING
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 270115 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
815 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.
&&


.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF CLOUDS IS ERODING QUICKLY ACROSS TN AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
AND SUBSIDING AIR PERSISTS. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER PER THIS TREND
WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME CI/CS
STREAKS MAY KEEP THE SKY PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST AT THIS HOUR WITH L-M50S IN SRN TN AND U50S IN
NRN AL. MIN TEMPS IN THE M-U40S NRN COUNTIES TO A50 SRN COUNTIES IS
ON TRACK.

AK

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN BETWEEN A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS, AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS CENTERED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (INDUCING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHING
FROM BAJA CA TO THE GULF STREAM) AND ITS CUTTING OFF FROM THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, ANTICIPATING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS
WEEK WHEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS OVER
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST.

SL.77
&&


.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 601 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... COLD FRONT HAS SLID JUST S OF KMSL AND KHSV SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE AL-TN STATE LINE AND WILL TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS ALSO ERODING
THESE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN TN AND WILL DO SO FURTHER SOUTH IN AL
LATE THIS EVENING. THUS, FORECASTING A CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS
BY 07Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PASSED OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A BELT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ORIENTED W TO E FROM THE
CORN BELT TO TN TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD HAS GRADUALLY ENCROACHED
NORTH ALABAMA WITH SOME EROSION PRESENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOMENTUM MIXING OF DRY AIR. FOR TONIGHT,
LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FURTHER WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. WITH WEAK CAA IN PLACE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING CLOSE TO THE SFC AIR TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THIS INGREDIENT
ALONE WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG, SFC WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION.

THEN, ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DE-AMPLIFIED BETWEEN
THIS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST AND THE MEAN TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO NEGATE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX AND
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MEAN TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE MEANDERS EAST. THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INDUCING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS, HAVE PULLED POPS/WX BACK ON THE 06Z-12Z
(MONDAY NIGHT) AND THE 12Z-18Z (TUESDAY MORNING) TIME FRAME. WITHOUT
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY (EITHER SB OR ELEVATED), HAVE RETAINED
RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. FURTHERMORE, AS THE
CUTOFF LOW OPENS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ITS EASTERN
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF LA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR DUE TO THE GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW (ALONG THE GULF COAST).
COMBINE THIS WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE AND STRONGER LIFT (DEEPENING
LOW) DEVELOPS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT SOME
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY MORNING TO
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NE AL/S MIDDLE TN. THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BECOMES RATHER
CHAOTIC ON THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT
NOT ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ANY OF THE IMPULSES THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY THIS WEEKEND TRANSLATING
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270115 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
815 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.
&&


.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF CLOUDS IS ERODING QUICKLY ACROSS TN AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
AND SUBSIDING AIR PERSISTS. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER PER THIS TREND
WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME CI/CS
STREAKS MAY KEEP THE SKY PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST AT THIS HOUR WITH L-M50S IN SRN TN AND U50S IN
NRN AL. MIN TEMPS IN THE M-U40S NRN COUNTIES TO A50 SRN COUNTIES IS
ON TRACK.

AK

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN BETWEEN A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS, AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS CENTERED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (INDUCING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHING
FROM BAJA CA TO THE GULF STREAM) AND ITS CUTTING OFF FROM THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, ANTICIPATING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS
WEEK WHEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS OVER
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST.

SL.77
&&


.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 601 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... COLD FRONT HAS SLID JUST S OF KMSL AND KHSV SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE AL-TN STATE LINE AND WILL TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS ALSO ERODING
THESE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN TN AND WILL DO SO FURTHER SOUTH IN AL
LATE THIS EVENING. THUS, FORECASTING A CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS
BY 07Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PASSED OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A BELT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ORIENTED W TO E FROM THE
CORN BELT TO TN TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD HAS GRADUALLY ENCROACHED
NORTH ALABAMA WITH SOME EROSION PRESENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOMENTUM MIXING OF DRY AIR. FOR TONIGHT,
LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FURTHER WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. WITH WEAK CAA IN PLACE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING CLOSE TO THE SFC AIR TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THIS INGREDIENT
ALONE WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG, SFC WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION.

THEN, ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DE-AMPLIFIED BETWEEN
THIS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST AND THE MEAN TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO NEGATE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX AND
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MEAN TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE MEANDERS EAST. THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INDUCING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS, HAVE PULLED POPS/WX BACK ON THE 06Z-12Z
(MONDAY NIGHT) AND THE 12Z-18Z (TUESDAY MORNING) TIME FRAME. WITHOUT
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY (EITHER SB OR ELEVATED), HAVE RETAINED
RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. FURTHERMORE, AS THE
CUTOFF LOW OPENS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ITS EASTERN
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF LA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR DUE TO THE GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW (ALONG THE GULF COAST).
COMBINE THIS WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE AND STRONGER LIFT (DEEPENING
LOW) DEVELOPS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT SOME
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY MORNING TO
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NE AL/S MIDDLE TN. THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BECOMES RATHER
CHAOTIC ON THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT
NOT ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ANY OF THE IMPULSES THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY THIS WEEKEND TRANSLATING
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 270040 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
740 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 27.09Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 28.00.
LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON]...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY AND NO MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORMS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. HIGHEST SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 150 TO 250 M2/S2. SOME THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE LINE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MONDAY WILL MAINLY BY IN THE 70S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65...AND FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE FORECAST AREA COMES
UNDER POST SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS/RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE DISORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
LEVELS.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  65  80  65  79 /  10  20  40  70  60
PENSACOLA   87  67  79  68  77 /  20  20  40  80  60
DESTIN      84  69  76  69  79 /  20  20  30  80  70
EVERGREEN   88  61  79  61  79 /  10  10  20  40  70
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  70 /  10  10  30  50  70
CAMDEN      88  59  78  58  73 /  05  10  10  30  70
CRESTVIEW   90  63  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  60  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270040 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
740 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 27.09Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 28.00.
LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON]...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY AND NO MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORMS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. HIGHEST SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 150 TO 250 M2/S2. SOME THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE LINE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MONDAY WILL MAINLY BY IN THE 70S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65...AND FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE FORECAST AREA COMES
UNDER POST SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS/RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE DISORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
LEVELS.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  65  80  65  79 /  10  20  40  70  60
PENSACOLA   87  67  79  68  77 /  20  20  40  80  60
DESTIN      84  69  76  69  79 /  20  20  30  80  70
EVERGREEN   88  61  79  61  79 /  10  10  20  40  70
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  70 /  10  10  30  50  70
CAMDEN      88  59  78  58  73 /  05  10  10  30  70
CRESTVIEW   90  63  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  60  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270040 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
740 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 27.09Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 28.00.
LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON]...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY AND NO MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORMS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. HIGHEST SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 150 TO 250 M2/S2. SOME THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE LINE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MONDAY WILL MAINLY BY IN THE 70S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65...AND FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE FORECAST AREA COMES
UNDER POST SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS/RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE DISORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
LEVELS.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  65  80  65  79 /  10  20  40  70  60
PENSACOLA   87  67  79  68  77 /  20  20  40  80  60
DESTIN      84  69  76  69  79 /  20  20  30  80  70
EVERGREEN   88  61  79  61  79 /  10  10  20  40  70
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  70 /  10  10  30  50  70
CAMDEN      88  59  78  58  73 /  05  10  10  30  70
CRESTVIEW   90  63  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  60  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270040 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
740 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 27.09Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 28.00.
LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON]...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY AND NO MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORMS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. HIGHEST SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 150 TO 250 M2/S2. SOME THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE LINE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MONDAY WILL MAINLY BY IN THE 70S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65...AND FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE FORECAST AREA COMES
UNDER POST SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS/RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE DISORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
LEVELS.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  65  80  65  79 /  10  20  40  70  60
PENSACOLA   87  67  79  68  77 /  20  20  40  80  60
DESTIN      84  69  76  69  79 /  20  20  30  80  70
EVERGREEN   88  61  79  61  79 /  10  10  20  40  70
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  70 /  10  10  30  50  70
CAMDEN      88  59  78  58  73 /  05  10  10  30  70
CRESTVIEW   90  63  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  60  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270040 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
740 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 27.09Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 28.00.
LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON]...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY AND NO MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORMS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. HIGHEST SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 150 TO 250 M2/S2. SOME THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE LINE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MONDAY WILL MAINLY BY IN THE 70S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65...AND FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE FORECAST AREA COMES
UNDER POST SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS/RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE DISORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
LEVELS.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  65  80  65  79 /  10  20  40  70  60
PENSACOLA   87  67  79  68  77 /  20  20  40  80  60
DESTIN      84  69  76  69  79 /  20  20  30  80  70
EVERGREEN   88  61  79  61  79 /  10  10  20  40  70
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  70 /  10  10  30  50  70
CAMDEN      88  59  78  58  73 /  05  10  10  30  70
CRESTVIEW   90  63  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  60  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 270040 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
740 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 27.09Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13 FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 28.00.
LOWER CEILINGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON]...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY AND NO MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORMS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. HIGHEST SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 150 TO 250 M2/S2. SOME THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE LINE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MONDAY WILL MAINLY BY IN THE 70S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65...AND FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE FORECAST AREA COMES
UNDER POST SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS/RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE DISORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
LEVELS.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  65  80  65  79 /  10  20  40  70  60
PENSACOLA   87  67  79  68  77 /  20  20  40  80  60
DESTIN      84  69  76  69  79 /  20  20  30  80  70
EVERGREEN   88  61  79  61  79 /  10  10  20  40  70
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  70 /  10  10  30  50  70
CAMDEN      88  59  78  58  73 /  05  10  10  30  70
CRESTVIEW   90  63  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  60  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 262345
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SPRING...
ALABAMA CAN ONLY MANAGE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
NEXT RAIN EVENT HITS THE REGION. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS ALABAMA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AS A GULF LOW FORMS NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE ONSET OF RAIN ON TUESDAY...AN RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKE A LATE WINTER SET-UP
WITH A DEEPENING GULF LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A COOL AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS
ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER PENETRATES INLAND.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 DUE TO
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
TROF. A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND INCREASING TO 6-
10KTS MONDAY MORNING.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  70  49  66  50 /   0   0  10  50  70
ANNISTON    52  72  51  69  52 /   0   0  10  60  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  72  52  68  52 /   0   0  10  70  70
TUSCALOOSA  55  74  54  69  53 /   0   0  20  70  70
CALERA      55  73  54  68  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
AUBURN      55  74  54  67  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
MONTGOMERY  58  77  57  72  56 /   0   0  20  70  70
TROY        59  78  57  72  57 /   0  10  30  70  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 262345
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SPRING...
ALABAMA CAN ONLY MANAGE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
NEXT RAIN EVENT HITS THE REGION. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS ALABAMA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AS A GULF LOW FORMS NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE ONSET OF RAIN ON TUESDAY...AN RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKE A LATE WINTER SET-UP
WITH A DEEPENING GULF LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A COOL AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS
ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER PENETRATES INLAND.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 DUE TO
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
TROF. A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND INCREASING TO 6-
10KTS MONDAY MORNING.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  70  49  66  50 /   0   0  10  50  70
ANNISTON    52  72  51  69  52 /   0   0  10  60  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  72  52  68  52 /   0   0  10  70  70
TUSCALOOSA  55  74  54  69  53 /   0   0  20  70  70
CALERA      55  73  54  68  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
AUBURN      55  74  54  67  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
MONTGOMERY  58  77  57  72  56 /   0   0  20  70  70
TROY        59  78  57  72  57 /   0  10  30  70  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 262345
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SPRING...
ALABAMA CAN ONLY MANAGE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
NEXT RAIN EVENT HITS THE REGION. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS ALABAMA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AS A GULF LOW FORMS NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE ONSET OF RAIN ON TUESDAY...AN RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKE A LATE WINTER SET-UP
WITH A DEEPENING GULF LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A COOL AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS
ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER PENETRATES INLAND.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 DUE TO
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
TROF. A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND INCREASING TO 6-
10KTS MONDAY MORNING.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  70  49  66  50 /   0   0  10  50  70
ANNISTON    52  72  51  69  52 /   0   0  10  60  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  72  52  68  52 /   0   0  10  70  70
TUSCALOOSA  55  74  54  69  53 /   0   0  20  70  70
CALERA      55  73  54  68  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
AUBURN      55  74  54  67  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
MONTGOMERY  58  77  57  72  56 /   0   0  20  70  70
TROY        59  78  57  72  57 /   0  10  30  70  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 262345
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SPRING...
ALABAMA CAN ONLY MANAGE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
NEXT RAIN EVENT HITS THE REGION. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS ALABAMA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AS A GULF LOW FORMS NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE ONSET OF RAIN ON TUESDAY...AN RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKE A LATE WINTER SET-UP
WITH A DEEPENING GULF LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A COOL AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS
ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER PENETRATES INLAND.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 DUE TO
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
TROF. A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND INCREASING TO 6-
10KTS MONDAY MORNING.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  70  49  66  50 /   0   0  10  50  70
ANNISTON    52  72  51  69  52 /   0   0  10  60  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  72  52  68  52 /   0   0  10  70  70
TUSCALOOSA  55  74  54  69  53 /   0   0  20  70  70
CALERA      55  73  54  68  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
AUBURN      55  74  54  67  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
MONTGOMERY  58  77  57  72  56 /   0   0  20  70  70
TROY        59  78  57  72  57 /   0  10  30  70  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 262301 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
601 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN BETWEEN A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS, AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS CENTERED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (INDUCING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHING
FROM BAJA CA TO THE GULF STREAM) AND ITS CUTTING OFF FROM THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, ANTICIPATING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS
WEEK WHEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS OVER
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST.

SL.77
&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PASSED OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A BELT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ORIENTED W TO E FROM THE
CORN BELT TO TN TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD HAS GRADUALLY ENCROACHED
NORTH ALABAMA WITH SOME EROSION PRESENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOMENTUM MIXING OF DRY AIR. FOR TONIGHT,
LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FURTHER WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. WITH WEAK CAA IN PLACE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING CLOSE TO THE SFC AIR TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THIS INGREDIENT
ALONE WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG, SFC WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION.

THEN, ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DE-AMPLIFIED BETWEEN
THIS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST AND THE MEAN TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO NEGATE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX AND
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MEAN TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE MEANDERS EAST. THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INDUCING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS, HAVE PULLED POPS/WX BACK ON THE 06Z-12Z
(MONDAY NIGHT) AND THE 12Z-18Z (TUESDAY MORNING) TIME FRAME. WITHOUT
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY (EITHER SB OR ELEVATED), HAVE RETAINED
RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. FURTHERMORE, AS THE
CUTOFF LOW OPENS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ITS EASTERN
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF LA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR DUE TO THE GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW (ALONG THE GULF COAST).
COMBINE THIS WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE AND STRONGER LIFT (DEEPENING
LOW) DEVELOPS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT SOME
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY MORNING TO
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NE AL/S MIDDLE TN. THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BECOMES RATHER
CHAOTIC ON THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT
NOT ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ANY OF THE IMPULSES THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY THIS WEEKEND TRANSLATING
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... COLD FRONT HAS SLID JUST S OF KMSL AND KHSV SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE AL-TN STATE LINE AND WILL TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS ALSO ERODING
THESE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN TN AND WILL DO SO FURTHER SOUTH IN AL
LATE THIS EVENING. THUS, FORECASTING A CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS
BY 07Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 262301 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
601 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN BETWEEN A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS, AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS CENTERED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (INDUCING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHING
FROM BAJA CA TO THE GULF STREAM) AND ITS CUTTING OFF FROM THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, ANTICIPATING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS
WEEK WHEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS OVER
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST.

SL.77
&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PASSED OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A BELT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ORIENTED W TO E FROM THE
CORN BELT TO TN TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD HAS GRADUALLY ENCROACHED
NORTH ALABAMA WITH SOME EROSION PRESENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOMENTUM MIXING OF DRY AIR. FOR TONIGHT,
LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FURTHER WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. WITH WEAK CAA IN PLACE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING CLOSE TO THE SFC AIR TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THIS INGREDIENT
ALONE WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG, SFC WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION.

THEN, ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DE-AMPLIFIED BETWEEN
THIS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST AND THE MEAN TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO NEGATE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX AND
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MEAN TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE MEANDERS EAST. THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INDUCING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS, HAVE PULLED POPS/WX BACK ON THE 06Z-12Z
(MONDAY NIGHT) AND THE 12Z-18Z (TUESDAY MORNING) TIME FRAME. WITHOUT
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY (EITHER SB OR ELEVATED), HAVE RETAINED
RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. FURTHERMORE, AS THE
CUTOFF LOW OPENS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ITS EASTERN
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF LA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR DUE TO THE GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW (ALONG THE GULF COAST).
COMBINE THIS WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE AND STRONGER LIFT (DEEPENING
LOW) DEVELOPS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT SOME
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY MORNING TO
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NE AL/S MIDDLE TN. THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BECOMES RATHER
CHAOTIC ON THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT
NOT ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ANY OF THE IMPULSES THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY THIS WEEKEND TRANSLATING
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... COLD FRONT HAS SLID JUST S OF KMSL AND KHSV SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE AL-TN STATE LINE AND WILL TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS ALSO ERODING
THESE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN TN AND WILL DO SO FURTHER SOUTH IN AL
LATE THIS EVENING. THUS, FORECASTING A CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS
BY 07Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 262301 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
601 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN BETWEEN A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS, AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS CENTERED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (INDUCING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHING
FROM BAJA CA TO THE GULF STREAM) AND ITS CUTTING OFF FROM THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, ANTICIPATING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS
WEEK WHEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS OVER
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST.

SL.77
&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PASSED OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A BELT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ORIENTED W TO E FROM THE
CORN BELT TO TN TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD HAS GRADUALLY ENCROACHED
NORTH ALABAMA WITH SOME EROSION PRESENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOMENTUM MIXING OF DRY AIR. FOR TONIGHT,
LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FURTHER WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. WITH WEAK CAA IN PLACE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING CLOSE TO THE SFC AIR TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THIS INGREDIENT
ALONE WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG, SFC WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION.

THEN, ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DE-AMPLIFIED BETWEEN
THIS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST AND THE MEAN TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO NEGATE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX AND
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MEAN TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE MEANDERS EAST. THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INDUCING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS, HAVE PULLED POPS/WX BACK ON THE 06Z-12Z
(MONDAY NIGHT) AND THE 12Z-18Z (TUESDAY MORNING) TIME FRAME. WITHOUT
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY (EITHER SB OR ELEVATED), HAVE RETAINED
RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. FURTHERMORE, AS THE
CUTOFF LOW OPENS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ITS EASTERN
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF LA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR DUE TO THE GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW (ALONG THE GULF COAST).
COMBINE THIS WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE AND STRONGER LIFT (DEEPENING
LOW) DEVELOPS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT SOME
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY MORNING TO
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NE AL/S MIDDLE TN. THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BECOMES RATHER
CHAOTIC ON THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT
NOT ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ANY OF THE IMPULSES THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY THIS WEEKEND TRANSLATING
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... COLD FRONT HAS SLID JUST S OF KMSL AND KHSV SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE AL-TN STATE LINE AND WILL TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS ALSO ERODING
THESE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN TN AND WILL DO SO FURTHER SOUTH IN AL
LATE THIS EVENING. THUS, FORECASTING A CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS
BY 07Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 262301 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
601 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN BETWEEN A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS, AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS CENTERED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (INDUCING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHING
FROM BAJA CA TO THE GULF STREAM) AND ITS CUTTING OFF FROM THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, ANTICIPATING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS
WEEK WHEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS OVER
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST.

SL.77
&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PASSED OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A BELT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ORIENTED W TO E FROM THE
CORN BELT TO TN TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD HAS GRADUALLY ENCROACHED
NORTH ALABAMA WITH SOME EROSION PRESENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOMENTUM MIXING OF DRY AIR. FOR TONIGHT,
LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FURTHER WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. WITH WEAK CAA IN PLACE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING CLOSE TO THE SFC AIR TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THIS INGREDIENT
ALONE WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG, SFC WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION.

THEN, ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DE-AMPLIFIED BETWEEN
THIS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST AND THE MEAN TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO NEGATE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX AND
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MEAN TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE MEANDERS EAST. THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INDUCING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS, HAVE PULLED POPS/WX BACK ON THE 06Z-12Z
(MONDAY NIGHT) AND THE 12Z-18Z (TUESDAY MORNING) TIME FRAME. WITHOUT
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY (EITHER SB OR ELEVATED), HAVE RETAINED
RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. FURTHERMORE, AS THE
CUTOFF LOW OPENS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ITS EASTERN
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF LA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR DUE TO THE GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW (ALONG THE GULF COAST).
COMBINE THIS WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE AND STRONGER LIFT (DEEPENING
LOW) DEVELOPS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT SOME
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY MORNING TO
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NE AL/S MIDDLE TN. THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BECOMES RATHER
CHAOTIC ON THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT
NOT ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ANY OF THE IMPULSES THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY THIS WEEKEND TRANSLATING
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... COLD FRONT HAS SLID JUST S OF KMSL AND KHSV SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE AL-TN STATE LINE AND WILL TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS ALSO ERODING
THESE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN TN AND WILL DO SO FURTHER SOUTH IN AL
LATE THIS EVENING. THUS, FORECASTING A CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS
BY 07Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 262103
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON]...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY AND NO MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORMS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. HIGHEST SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1800 J/KG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 150 TO 250 M2/S2. SOME THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE LINE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MONDAY WILL MAINLY BY IN THE 70S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65...AND FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE FORECAST AREA COMES
UNDER POST SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS/RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE DISORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  80  65  79  56 /  20  40  70  60  20
PENSACOLA   67  79  68  77  60 /  20  40  80  60  20
DESTIN      69  76  69  79  64 /  20  30  80  70  20
EVERGREEN   61  79  61  79  58 /  10  20  40  70  50
WAYNESBORO  60  78  58  70  53 /  10  30  50  70  50
CAMDEN      59  78  58  73  56 /  10  10  30  70  60
CRESTVIEW   63  83  64  81  60 /  20  30  60  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 262001
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
301 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SPRING...
ALABAMA CAN ONLY MANAGE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
NEXT RAIN EVENT HITS THE REGION. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS ALABAMA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AS A GULF LOW FORMS NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE ONSET OF RAIN ON TUESDAY...AN RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKE A LATE WINTER SET-UP
WITH A DEEPENING GULF LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A COOL AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS
ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER PENETRATES INLAND.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 DUE TO
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
TROF. A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  70  49  66  50 /   0   0  10  50  70
ANNISTON    52  72  51  69  52 /   0   0  10  60  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  72  52  68  52 /   0   0  10  70  70
TUSCALOOSA  55  74  54  69  53 /   0   0  20  70  70
CALERA      55  73  54  68  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
AUBURN      55  74  54  67  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
MONTGOMERY  58  77  57  72  56 /   0   0  20  70  70
TROY        59  78  57  72  57 /   0  10  30  70  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 262001
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
301 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SPRING...
ALABAMA CAN ONLY MANAGE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
NEXT RAIN EVENT HITS THE REGION. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS ALABAMA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AS A GULF LOW FORMS NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE ONSET OF RAIN ON TUESDAY...AN RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKE A LATE WINTER SET-UP
WITH A DEEPENING GULF LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A COOL AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS
ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER PENETRATES INLAND.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 DUE TO
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
TROF. A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  70  49  66  50 /   0   0  10  50  70
ANNISTON    52  72  51  69  52 /   0   0  10  60  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  72  52  68  52 /   0   0  10  70  70
TUSCALOOSA  55  74  54  69  53 /   0   0  20  70  70
CALERA      55  73  54  68  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
AUBURN      55  74  54  67  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
MONTGOMERY  58  77  57  72  56 /   0   0  20  70  70
TROY        59  78  57  72  57 /   0  10  30  70  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 262001
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
301 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SPRING...
ALABAMA CAN ONLY MANAGE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
NEXT RAIN EVENT HITS THE REGION. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS ALABAMA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AS A GULF LOW FORMS NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE ONSET OF RAIN ON TUESDAY...AN RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKE A LATE WINTER SET-UP
WITH A DEEPENING GULF LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A COOL AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS
ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER PENETRATES INLAND.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 DUE TO
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
TROF. A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  70  49  66  50 /   0   0  10  50  70
ANNISTON    52  72  51  69  52 /   0   0  10  60  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  72  52  68  52 /   0   0  10  70  70
TUSCALOOSA  55  74  54  69  53 /   0   0  20  70  70
CALERA      55  73  54  68  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
AUBURN      55  74  54  67  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
MONTGOMERY  58  77  57  72  56 /   0   0  20  70  70
TROY        59  78  57  72  57 /   0  10  30  70  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 262001
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
301 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SPRING...
ALABAMA CAN ONLY MANAGE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
NEXT RAIN EVENT HITS THE REGION. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS ALABAMA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AS A GULF LOW FORMS NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE ONSET OF RAIN ON TUESDAY...AN RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKE A LATE WINTER SET-UP
WITH A DEEPENING GULF LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A COOL AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS
ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER PENETRATES INLAND.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 DUE TO
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
TROF. A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  70  49  66  50 /   0   0  10  50  70
ANNISTON    52  72  51  69  52 /   0   0  10  60  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  72  52  68  52 /   0   0  10  70  70
TUSCALOOSA  55  74  54  69  53 /   0   0  20  70  70
CALERA      55  73  54  68  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
AUBURN      55  74  54  67  53 /   0   0  10  70  70
MONTGOMERY  58  77  57  72  56 /   0   0  20  70  70
TROY        59  78  57  72  57 /   0  10  30  70  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 261947
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN BETWEEN A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS, AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS CENTERED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (INDUCING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHING
FROM BAJA CA TO THE GULF STREAM) AND ITS CUTTING OFF FROM THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, ANTICIPATING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS
WEEK WHEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS OVER
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PASSED OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A BELT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ORIENTED W TO E FROM THE
CORN BELT TO TN TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD HAS GRADUALLY ENCROACHED
NORTH ALABAMA WITH SOME EROSION PRESENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOMENTUM MIXING OF DRY AIR. FOR TONIGHT,
LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FURTHER WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. WITH WEAK CAA IN PLACE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING CLOSE TO THE SFC AIR TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THIS INGREDIENT
ALONE WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG, SFC WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION.

THEN, ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DE-AMPLIFIED BETWEEN
THIS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST AND THE MEAN TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO NEGATE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX AND
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MEAN TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE MEANDERS EAST. THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INDUCING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS, HAVE PULLED POPS/WX BACK ON THE 06Z-12Z
(MONDAY NIGHT) AND THE 12Z-18Z (TUESDAY MORNING) TIME FRAME. WITHOUT
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY (EITHER SB OR ELEVATED), HAVE RETAINED
RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. FURTHERMORE, AS THE
CUTOFF LOW OPENS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ITS EASTERN
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF LA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR DUE TO THE GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW (ALONG THE GULF COAST).
COMBINE THIS WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE AND STRONGER LIFT (DEEPENING
LOW) DEVELOPS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT SOME
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY MORNING TO
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NE AL/S MIDDLE TN. THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BECOMES RATHER
CHAOTIC ON THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT
NOT ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ANY OF THE IMPULSES THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY THIS WEEKEND TRANSLATING
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE MVFR CIGS AT SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS SITES UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ALLOWING THESE CIGS TO BECOME
SCATTERED ACROSS AT KMSL AND KHSV. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE TIMES OF BKN CIGS AT AROUND 3K FT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH 21Z...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED
ABOVE 4 KT. WINDS WILL BE FOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    48  70  49  67 /   0   0  20  60
SHOALS        49  70  50  67 /   0   0  20  70
VINEMONT      49  70  50  67 /   0   0  20  70
FAYETTEVILLE  44  66  45  65 /   0   0  10  50
ALBERTVILLE   49  67  49  66 /   0   0  20  70
FORT PAYNE    45  68  46  67 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 261947
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN BETWEEN A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS, AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS CENTERED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (INDUCING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHING
FROM BAJA CA TO THE GULF STREAM) AND ITS CUTTING OFF FROM THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, ANTICIPATING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS
WEEK WHEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS OVER
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PASSED OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A BELT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ORIENTED W TO E FROM THE
CORN BELT TO TN TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD HAS GRADUALLY ENCROACHED
NORTH ALABAMA WITH SOME EROSION PRESENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOMENTUM MIXING OF DRY AIR. FOR TONIGHT,
LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FURTHER WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. WITH WEAK CAA IN PLACE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING CLOSE TO THE SFC AIR TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THIS INGREDIENT
ALONE WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG, SFC WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION.

THEN, ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DE-AMPLIFIED BETWEEN
THIS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST AND THE MEAN TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO NEGATE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX AND
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MEAN TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE MEANDERS EAST. THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INDUCING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS, HAVE PULLED POPS/WX BACK ON THE 06Z-12Z
(MONDAY NIGHT) AND THE 12Z-18Z (TUESDAY MORNING) TIME FRAME. WITHOUT
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY (EITHER SB OR ELEVATED), HAVE RETAINED
RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. FURTHERMORE, AS THE
CUTOFF LOW OPENS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ITS EASTERN
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF LA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR DUE TO THE GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW (ALONG THE GULF COAST).
COMBINE THIS WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE AND STRONGER LIFT (DEEPENING
LOW) DEVELOPS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT SOME
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY MORNING TO
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NE AL/S MIDDLE TN. THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BECOMES RATHER
CHAOTIC ON THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT
NOT ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ANY OF THE IMPULSES THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY THIS WEEKEND TRANSLATING
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE MVFR CIGS AT SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS SITES UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ALLOWING THESE CIGS TO BECOME
SCATTERED ACROSS AT KMSL AND KHSV. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE TIMES OF BKN CIGS AT AROUND 3K FT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH 21Z...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED
ABOVE 4 KT. WINDS WILL BE FOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    48  70  49  67 /   0   0  20  60
SHOALS        49  70  50  67 /   0   0  20  70
VINEMONT      49  70  50  67 /   0   0  20  70
FAYETTEVILLE  44  66  45  65 /   0   0  10  50
ALBERTVILLE   49  67  49  66 /   0   0  20  70
FORT PAYNE    45  68  46  67 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 261752 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1250 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
24.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DETECTING NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 4 AM CDT. REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ESTIMATED BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR CWFA. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER INLAND AREAS TO AROUND 1.25
IN. NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND LIFT...THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ARE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP... SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF ISOLATED CONVECTION
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THAT MLCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A BEAUMONT MS...CITRONELLE AL...CRESTVIEW FL LINE. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.

THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 89 AT MOBILE (LAST SET IN 1989) AND
88 AT PENSACOLA (LAST SET IN 1988). /21

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OVER THE NM/TX
BORDER TO JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE TX COAST THEN TAKES IT EAST ALONG...BUT SOUTH...OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO BECOME CENTERED SOUTH OF KPNS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...WHICH HELPS TO ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. SPEAKING OF THE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST OF TX AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE LA COAST...THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH MOST OF IT BEING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INDUCED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILLS TART OUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COAST...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA.
WITH THIS PATH...ORGANIZING A WARM FRONT ALONG AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAID OUT WITH THE PAST SYSTEM...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BR LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POINTS SOUTH. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WATER PROBLEMS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. IF THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTH THE RISK OF
WATER AND STRONG STORMS SHIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES MORE OF A PROBLEM
FOR THE COAST AND INLAND. AT THIS POINT...JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILST DEORGANIZING IT. THE FA COMES UNDER POST
SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS/RAIN. TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DISORGANIZED UPPER
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FA...WITH THE
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE OPENING UP. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WITH NARY A RAINCLOUD IN SIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TOT HE
EAST...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  64  80  64  78 /  10  20  40  50  60
PENSACOLA   87  66  81  68  78 /  20  20  40  50  60
DESTIN      84  69  80  67  78 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   88  60  79  59  79 /  10  10  20  40  30
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  68 /  10  10  10  50  60
CAMDEN      88  59  78  56  73 /  05  10  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   90  61  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261752 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1250 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
24.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DETECTING NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 4 AM CDT. REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ESTIMATED BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR CWFA. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER INLAND AREAS TO AROUND 1.25
IN. NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND LIFT...THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ARE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP... SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF ISOLATED CONVECTION
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THAT MLCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A BEAUMONT MS...CITRONELLE AL...CRESTVIEW FL LINE. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.

THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 89 AT MOBILE (LAST SET IN 1989) AND
88 AT PENSACOLA (LAST SET IN 1988). /21

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OVER THE NM/TX
BORDER TO JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE TX COAST THEN TAKES IT EAST ALONG...BUT SOUTH...OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO BECOME CENTERED SOUTH OF KPNS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...WHICH HELPS TO ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. SPEAKING OF THE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST OF TX AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE LA COAST...THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH MOST OF IT BEING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INDUCED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILLS TART OUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COAST...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA.
WITH THIS PATH...ORGANIZING A WARM FRONT ALONG AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAID OUT WITH THE PAST SYSTEM...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BR LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POINTS SOUTH. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WATER PROBLEMS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. IF THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTH THE RISK OF
WATER AND STRONG STORMS SHIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES MORE OF A PROBLEM
FOR THE COAST AND INLAND. AT THIS POINT...JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILST DEORGANIZING IT. THE FA COMES UNDER POST
SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS/RAIN. TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DISORGANIZED UPPER
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FA...WITH THE
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE OPENING UP. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WITH NARY A RAINCLOUD IN SIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TOT HE
EAST...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  64  80  64  78 /  10  20  40  50  60
PENSACOLA   87  66  81  68  78 /  20  20  40  50  60
DESTIN      84  69  80  67  78 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   88  60  79  59  79 /  10  10  20  40  30
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  68 /  10  10  10  50  60
CAMDEN      88  59  78  56  73 /  05  10  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   90  61  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261752 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1250 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
24.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DETECTING NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 4 AM CDT. REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ESTIMATED BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR CWFA. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER INLAND AREAS TO AROUND 1.25
IN. NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND LIFT...THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ARE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP... SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF ISOLATED CONVECTION
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THAT MLCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A BEAUMONT MS...CITRONELLE AL...CRESTVIEW FL LINE. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.

THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 89 AT MOBILE (LAST SET IN 1989) AND
88 AT PENSACOLA (LAST SET IN 1988). /21

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OVER THE NM/TX
BORDER TO JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE TX COAST THEN TAKES IT EAST ALONG...BUT SOUTH...OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO BECOME CENTERED SOUTH OF KPNS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...WHICH HELPS TO ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. SPEAKING OF THE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST OF TX AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE LA COAST...THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH MOST OF IT BEING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INDUCED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILLS TART OUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COAST...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA.
WITH THIS PATH...ORGANIZING A WARM FRONT ALONG AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAID OUT WITH THE PAST SYSTEM...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BR LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POINTS SOUTH. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WATER PROBLEMS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. IF THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTH THE RISK OF
WATER AND STRONG STORMS SHIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES MORE OF A PROBLEM
FOR THE COAST AND INLAND. AT THIS POINT...JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILST DEORGANIZING IT. THE FA COMES UNDER POST
SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS/RAIN. TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DISORGANIZED UPPER
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FA...WITH THE
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE OPENING UP. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WITH NARY A RAINCLOUD IN SIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TOT HE
EAST...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  64  80  64  78 /  10  20  40  50  60
PENSACOLA   87  66  81  68  78 /  20  20  40  50  60
DESTIN      84  69  80  67  78 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   88  60  79  59  79 /  10  10  20  40  30
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  68 /  10  10  10  50  60
CAMDEN      88  59  78  56  73 /  05  10  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   90  61  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261752 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1250 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
24.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DETECTING NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 4 AM CDT. REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ESTIMATED BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR CWFA. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER INLAND AREAS TO AROUND 1.25
IN. NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND LIFT...THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ARE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP... SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF ISOLATED CONVECTION
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THAT MLCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A BEAUMONT MS...CITRONELLE AL...CRESTVIEW FL LINE. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.

THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 89 AT MOBILE (LAST SET IN 1989) AND
88 AT PENSACOLA (LAST SET IN 1988). /21

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OVER THE NM/TX
BORDER TO JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE TX COAST THEN TAKES IT EAST ALONG...BUT SOUTH...OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO BECOME CENTERED SOUTH OF KPNS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...WHICH HELPS TO ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. SPEAKING OF THE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST OF TX AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE LA COAST...THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH MOST OF IT BEING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INDUCED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILLS TART OUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COAST...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA.
WITH THIS PATH...ORGANIZING A WARM FRONT ALONG AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAID OUT WITH THE PAST SYSTEM...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BR LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POINTS SOUTH. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WATER PROBLEMS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. IF THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTH THE RISK OF
WATER AND STRONG STORMS SHIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES MORE OF A PROBLEM
FOR THE COAST AND INLAND. AT THIS POINT...JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILST DEORGANIZING IT. THE FA COMES UNDER POST
SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS/RAIN. TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DISORGANIZED UPPER
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FA...WITH THE
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE OPENING UP. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WITH NARY A RAINCLOUD IN SIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TOT HE
EAST...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  64  80  64  78 /  10  20  40  50  60
PENSACOLA   87  66  81  68  78 /  20  20  40  50  60
DESTIN      84  69  80  67  78 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   88  60  79  59  79 /  10  10  20  40  30
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  68 /  10  10  10  50  60
CAMDEN      88  59  78  56  73 /  05  10  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   90  61  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261752 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1250 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
24.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DETECTING NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 4 AM CDT. REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ESTIMATED BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR CWFA. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER INLAND AREAS TO AROUND 1.25
IN. NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND LIFT...THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ARE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP... SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF ISOLATED CONVECTION
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THAT MLCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A BEAUMONT MS...CITRONELLE AL...CRESTVIEW FL LINE. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.

THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 89 AT MOBILE (LAST SET IN 1989) AND
88 AT PENSACOLA (LAST SET IN 1988). /21

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OVER THE NM/TX
BORDER TO JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE TX COAST THEN TAKES IT EAST ALONG...BUT SOUTH...OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO BECOME CENTERED SOUTH OF KPNS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...WHICH HELPS TO ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. SPEAKING OF THE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST OF TX AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE LA COAST...THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH MOST OF IT BEING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INDUCED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILLS TART OUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COAST...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA.
WITH THIS PATH...ORGANIZING A WARM FRONT ALONG AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAID OUT WITH THE PAST SYSTEM...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BR LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POINTS SOUTH. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WATER PROBLEMS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. IF THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTH THE RISK OF
WATER AND STRONG STORMS SHIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES MORE OF A PROBLEM
FOR THE COAST AND INLAND. AT THIS POINT...JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILST DEORGANIZING IT. THE FA COMES UNDER POST
SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS/RAIN. TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DISORGANIZED UPPER
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FA...WITH THE
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE OPENING UP. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WITH NARY A RAINCLOUD IN SIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TOT HE
EAST...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  64  80  64  78 /  10  20  40  50  60
PENSACOLA   87  66  81  68  78 /  20  20  40  50  60
DESTIN      84  69  80  67  78 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   88  60  79  59  79 /  10  10  20  40  30
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  68 /  10  10  10  50  60
CAMDEN      88  59  78  56  73 /  05  10  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   90  61  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 261748
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  70  48  69  50 /   0   0  10  30  70
ANNISTON    53  72  50  69  52 /   0   0  10  30  70
BIRMINGHAM  54  73  52  69  52 /   0   0  10  40  70
TUSCALOOSA  56  74  54  70  53 /   0   0  10  50  70
CALERA      55  73  53  69  53 /   0   0  10  40  70
AUBURN      56  74  53  69  53 /   0   0  10  40  70
MONTGOMERY  59  77  56  73  56 /   0   0  10  50  70
TROY        60  79  57  73  57 /   0  10  10  50  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 261748
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  70  48  69  50 /   0   0  10  30  70
ANNISTON    53  72  50  69  52 /   0   0  10  30  70
BIRMINGHAM  54  73  52  69  52 /   0   0  10  40  70
TUSCALOOSA  56  74  54  70  53 /   0   0  10  50  70
CALERA      55  73  53  69  53 /   0   0  10  40  70
AUBURN      56  74  53  69  53 /   0   0  10  40  70
MONTGOMERY  59  77  56  73  56 /   0   0  10  50  70
TROY        60  79  57  73  57 /   0  10  10  50  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 261748
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  70  48  69  50 /   0   0  10  30  70
ANNISTON    53  72  50  69  52 /   0   0  10  30  70
BIRMINGHAM  54  73  52  69  52 /   0   0  10  40  70
TUSCALOOSA  56  74  54  70  53 /   0   0  10  50  70
CALERA      55  73  53  69  53 /   0   0  10  40  70
AUBURN      56  74  53  69  53 /   0   0  10  40  70
MONTGOMERY  59  77  56  73  56 /   0   0  10  50  70
TROY        60  79  57  73  57 /   0  10  10  50  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 261748
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  70  48  69  50 /   0   0  10  30  70
ANNISTON    53  72  50  69  52 /   0   0  10  30  70
BIRMINGHAM  54  73  52  69  52 /   0   0  10  40  70
TUSCALOOSA  56  74  54  70  53 /   0   0  10  50  70
CALERA      55  73  53  69  53 /   0   0  10  40  70
AUBURN      56  74  53  69  53 /   0   0  10  40  70
MONTGOMERY  59  77  56  73  56 /   0   0  10  50  70
TROY        60  79  57  73  57 /   0  10  10  50  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
HUN CWA. COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPS FOR TODAY. LOCATIONS
THAT HAD MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...AND HAVE
INCREASED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOMMODATE ADDITIONAL WARMING
FROM THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING BUT THE COVER WILL STILL BE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
SCT/BKN ALONG THE FRONT.

TOOK OUT POPS FOR NE AL TODAY...AS UPSTREAM OBS IN TN HAVE REPORTED
NO PRECIP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WOULD PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. AS THE
FRONT KEEPS MOVING THROUGH...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY AIR STAYING IN PLACE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE MVFR CIGS AT SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS SITES UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ALLOWING THESE CIGS TO BECOME
SCATTERED ACROSS AT KMSL AND KHSV. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE TIMES OF BKN CIGS AT AROUND 3K FT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH 21Z...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED
ABOVE 4 KT. WINDS WILL BE FOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
HUN CWA. COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPS FOR TODAY. LOCATIONS
THAT HAD MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...AND HAVE
INCREASED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOMMODATE ADDITIONAL WARMING
FROM THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING BUT THE COVER WILL STILL BE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
SCT/BKN ALONG THE FRONT.

TOOK OUT POPS FOR NE AL TODAY...AS UPSTREAM OBS IN TN HAVE REPORTED
NO PRECIP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WOULD PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. AS THE
FRONT KEEPS MOVING THROUGH...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY AIR STAYING IN PLACE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE MVFR CIGS AT SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS SITES UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ALLOWING THESE CIGS TO BECOME
SCATTERED ACROSS AT KMSL AND KHSV. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE TIMES OF BKN CIGS AT AROUND 3K FT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH 21Z...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED
ABOVE 4 KT. WINDS WILL BE FOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 261727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
HUN CWA. COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPS FOR TODAY. LOCATIONS
THAT HAD MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...AND HAVE
INCREASED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOMMODATE ADDITIONAL WARMING
FROM THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING BUT THE COVER WILL STILL BE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
SCT/BKN ALONG THE FRONT.

TOOK OUT POPS FOR NE AL TODAY...AS UPSTREAM OBS IN TN HAVE REPORTED
NO PRECIP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WOULD PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. AS THE
FRONT KEEPS MOVING THROUGH...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY AIR STAYING IN PLACE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE MVFR CIGS AT SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS SITES UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ALLOWING THESE CIGS TO BECOME
SCATTERED ACROSS AT KMSL AND KHSV. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE TIMES OF BKN CIGS AT AROUND 3K FT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH 21Z...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED
ABOVE 4 KT. WINDS WILL BE FOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
HUN CWA. COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPS FOR TODAY. LOCATIONS
THAT HAD MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...AND HAVE
INCREASED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOMMODATE ADDITIONAL WARMING
FROM THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING BUT THE COVER WILL STILL BE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
SCT/BKN ALONG THE FRONT.

TOOK OUT POPS FOR NE AL TODAY...AS UPSTREAM OBS IN TN HAVE REPORTED
NO PRECIP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WOULD PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. AS THE
FRONT KEEPS MOVING THROUGH...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY AIR STAYING IN PLACE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE MVFR CIGS AT SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS SITES UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ALLOWING THESE CIGS TO BECOME
SCATTERED ACROSS AT KMSL AND KHSV. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE TIMES OF BKN CIGS AT AROUND 3K FT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH 21Z...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED
ABOVE 4 KT. WINDS WILL BE FOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 261632 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1132 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DETECTING NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 4 AM CDT. REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ESTIMATED BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR CWFA. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER INLAND AREAS TO AROUND 1.25
IN. NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND LIFT...THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ARE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP... SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF ISOLATED CONVECTION
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THAT MLCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A BEAUMONT MS...CITRONELLE AL...CRESTVIEW FL LINE. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.

THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 89 AT MOBILE (LAST SET IN 1989) AND
88 AT PENSACOLA (LAST SET IN 1988). /21

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OVER THE NM/TX
BORDER TO JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE TX COAST THEN TAKES IT EAST ALONG...BUT SOUTH...OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO BECOME CENTERED SOUTH OF KPNS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...WHICH HELPS TO ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. SPEAKING OF THE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST OF TX AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE LA COAST...THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH MOST OF IT BEING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INDUCED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILLS TART OUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COAST...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA.
WITH THIS PATH...ORGANIZING A WARM FRONT ALONG AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAID OUT WITH THE PAST SYSTEM...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BR LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POINTS SOUTH. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WATER PROBLEMS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. IF THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTH THE RISK OF
WATER AND STRONG STORMS SHIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES MORE OF A PROBLEM
FOR THE COAST AND INLAND. AT THIS POINT...JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILST DEORGANIZING IT. THE FA COMES UNDER POST
SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS/RAIN. TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DISORGANIZED UPPER
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FA...WITH THE
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE OPENING UP. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WITH NARY A RAINCLOUD IN SIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TOT HE
EAST...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS.

AVIATION...
24.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...PATCHY IFR CIGS
AND MVFR TO IFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING
WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THEREAFTER. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5-
10 KNOTS OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF A SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY. /21

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  64  80  64  78 /  10  20  40  50  60
PENSACOLA   87  66  81  68  78 /  20  20  40  50  60
DESTIN      84  69  80  67  78 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   88  60  79  59  79 /  10  10  20  40  30
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  68 /  10  10  10  50  60
CAMDEN      88  59  78  56  73 /  05  10  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   90  61  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261632 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1132 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DETECTING NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 4 AM CDT. REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ESTIMATED BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR CWFA. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER INLAND AREAS TO AROUND 1.25
IN. NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND LIFT...THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ARE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP... SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF ISOLATED CONVECTION
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THAT MLCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A BEAUMONT MS...CITRONELLE AL...CRESTVIEW FL LINE. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.

THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 89 AT MOBILE (LAST SET IN 1989) AND
88 AT PENSACOLA (LAST SET IN 1988). /21

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OVER THE NM/TX
BORDER TO JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE TX COAST THEN TAKES IT EAST ALONG...BUT SOUTH...OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO BECOME CENTERED SOUTH OF KPNS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...WHICH HELPS TO ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. SPEAKING OF THE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST OF TX AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE LA COAST...THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH MOST OF IT BEING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INDUCED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILLS TART OUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COAST...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA.
WITH THIS PATH...ORGANIZING A WARM FRONT ALONG AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAID OUT WITH THE PAST SYSTEM...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BR LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POINTS SOUTH. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WATER PROBLEMS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. IF THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTH THE RISK OF
WATER AND STRONG STORMS SHIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES MORE OF A PROBLEM
FOR THE COAST AND INLAND. AT THIS POINT...JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILST DEORGANIZING IT. THE FA COMES UNDER POST
SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS/RAIN. TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DISORGANIZED UPPER
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FA...WITH THE
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE OPENING UP. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WITH NARY A RAINCLOUD IN SIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TOT HE
EAST...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS.

AVIATION...
24.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...PATCHY IFR CIGS
AND MVFR TO IFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING
WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THEREAFTER. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5-
10 KNOTS OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF A SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY. /21

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  64  80  64  78 /  10  20  40  50  60
PENSACOLA   87  66  81  68  78 /  20  20  40  50  60
DESTIN      84  69  80  67  78 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   88  60  79  59  79 /  10  10  20  40  30
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  68 /  10  10  10  50  60
CAMDEN      88  59  78  56  73 /  05  10  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   90  61  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 261632 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1132 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DETECTING NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 4 AM CDT. REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ESTIMATED BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR CWFA. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER INLAND AREAS TO AROUND 1.25
IN. NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND LIFT...THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ARE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP... SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF ISOLATED CONVECTION
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THAT MLCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A BEAUMONT MS...CITRONELLE AL...CRESTVIEW FL LINE. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.

THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 89 AT MOBILE (LAST SET IN 1989) AND
88 AT PENSACOLA (LAST SET IN 1988). /21

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OVER THE NM/TX
BORDER TO JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE TX COAST THEN TAKES IT EAST ALONG...BUT SOUTH...OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO BECOME CENTERED SOUTH OF KPNS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...WHICH HELPS TO ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. SPEAKING OF THE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST OF TX AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE LA COAST...THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH MOST OF IT BEING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INDUCED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILLS TART OUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COAST...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA.
WITH THIS PATH...ORGANIZING A WARM FRONT ALONG AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAID OUT WITH THE PAST SYSTEM...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BR LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POINTS SOUTH. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WATER PROBLEMS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. IF THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTH THE RISK OF
WATER AND STRONG STORMS SHIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES MORE OF A PROBLEM
FOR THE COAST AND INLAND. AT THIS POINT...JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILST DEORGANIZING IT. THE FA COMES UNDER POST
SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS/RAIN. TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DISORGANIZED UPPER
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FA...WITH THE
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE OPENING UP. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WITH NARY A RAINCLOUD IN SIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TOT HE
EAST...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS.

AVIATION...
24.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...PATCHY IFR CIGS
AND MVFR TO IFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING
WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THEREAFTER. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5-
10 KNOTS OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF A SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY. /21

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  64  80  64  78 /  10  20  40  50  60
PENSACOLA   87  66  81  68  78 /  20  20  40  50  60
DESTIN      84  69  80  67  78 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   88  60  79  59  79 /  10  10  20  40  30
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  68 /  10  10  10  50  60
CAMDEN      88  59  78  56  73 /  05  10  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   90  61  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261632 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1132 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DETECTING NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 4 AM CDT. REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ESTIMATED BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR CWFA. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER INLAND AREAS TO AROUND 1.25
IN. NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND LIFT...THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ARE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP... SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF ISOLATED CONVECTION
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THAT MLCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A BEAUMONT MS...CITRONELLE AL...CRESTVIEW FL LINE. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.

THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 89 AT MOBILE (LAST SET IN 1989) AND
88 AT PENSACOLA (LAST SET IN 1988). /21

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OVER THE NM/TX
BORDER TO JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE TX COAST THEN TAKES IT EAST ALONG...BUT SOUTH...OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO BECOME CENTERED SOUTH OF KPNS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...WHICH HELPS TO ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. SPEAKING OF THE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST OF TX AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE LA COAST...THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH MOST OF IT BEING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INDUCED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILLS TART OUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COAST...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA.
WITH THIS PATH...ORGANIZING A WARM FRONT ALONG AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAID OUT WITH THE PAST SYSTEM...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BR LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POINTS SOUTH. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WATER PROBLEMS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. IF THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTH THE RISK OF
WATER AND STRONG STORMS SHIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES MORE OF A PROBLEM
FOR THE COAST AND INLAND. AT THIS POINT...JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILST DEORGANIZING IT. THE FA COMES UNDER POST
SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS/RAIN. TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DISORGANIZED UPPER
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FA...WITH THE
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE OPENING UP. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WITH NARY A RAINCLOUD IN SIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TOT HE
EAST...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS.

AVIATION...
24.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...PATCHY IFR CIGS
AND MVFR TO IFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING
WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THEREAFTER. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5-
10 KNOTS OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF A SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY. /21

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  64  80  64  78 /  10  20  40  50  60
PENSACOLA   87  66  81  68  78 /  20  20  40  50  60
DESTIN      84  69  80  67  78 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   88  60  79  59  79 /  10  10  20  40  30
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  68 /  10  10  10  50  60
CAMDEN      88  59  78  56  73 /  05  10  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   90  61  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 261544 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1044 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
HUN CWA. COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPS FOR TODAY. LOCATIONS
THAT HAD MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...AND HAVE
INCREASED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOMMODATE ADDITIONAL WARMING
FROM THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING BUT THE COVER WILL STILL BE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
SCT/BKN ALONG THE FRONT.

TOOK OUT POPS FOR NE AL TODAY...AS UPSTREAM OBS IN TN HAVE REPORTED
NO PRECIP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WOULD PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. AS THE
FRONT KEEPS MOVING THROUGH...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY AIR STAYING IN PLACE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS FROM W TO N/NW. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND HAS CAUSED
SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3 MILES AT HSV AND 5 MILES AT
MSL...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER 12Z. A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK
ACROSS NORTHERN TN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM N TO S THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS AOA 1500FT EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL HELP TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261544 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1044 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
HUN CWA. COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPS FOR TODAY. LOCATIONS
THAT HAD MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...AND HAVE
INCREASED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOMMODATE ADDITIONAL WARMING
FROM THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING BUT THE COVER WILL STILL BE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
SCT/BKN ALONG THE FRONT.

TOOK OUT POPS FOR NE AL TODAY...AS UPSTREAM OBS IN TN HAVE REPORTED
NO PRECIP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WOULD PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. AS THE
FRONT KEEPS MOVING THROUGH...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY AIR STAYING IN PLACE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS FROM W TO N/NW. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND HAS CAUSED
SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3 MILES AT HSV AND 5 MILES AT
MSL...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER 12Z. A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK
ACROSS NORTHERN TN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM N TO S THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS AOA 1500FT EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL HELP TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 261148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

JUST A FEW HOURS OF IFR BR AND LOW CIGS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12KTS WITH GUST
UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES AFTER 18Z THROUGH 6Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS CALM SOME NORTH
AFTER 6Z...BUT REMAIN AROUND 7KTS SOUTH.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 261148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

JUST A FEW HOURS OF IFR BR AND LOW CIGS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12KTS WITH GUST
UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES AFTER 18Z THROUGH 6Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS CALM SOME NORTH
AFTER 6Z...BUT REMAIN AROUND 7KTS SOUTH.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 261148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

JUST A FEW HOURS OF IFR BR AND LOW CIGS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12KTS WITH GUST
UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES AFTER 18Z THROUGH 6Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS CALM SOME NORTH
AFTER 6Z...BUT REMAIN AROUND 7KTS SOUTH.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 261148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

JUST A FEW HOURS OF IFR BR AND LOW CIGS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12KTS WITH GUST
UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES AFTER 18Z THROUGH 6Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS CALM SOME NORTH
AFTER 6Z...BUT REMAIN AROUND 7KTS SOUTH.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 261148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

JUST A FEW HOURS OF IFR BR AND LOW CIGS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12KTS WITH GUST
UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES AFTER 18Z THROUGH 6Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS CALM SOME NORTH
AFTER 6Z...BUT REMAIN AROUND 7KTS SOUTH.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 261120
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
620 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 538 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT HAS NOW BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS 500-MB HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH PUSHING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...AN INITIAL SURGE
OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING --
WITH A STRONGER SURGE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN VALUES OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
ARRIVAL OF THICKER STRATUS...A PRONOUNCED N-S ORIENTED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WAS INDICATED IN THE MAX T GRID FOR TODAY. OVERALL...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GUSTY NORTH
WIND AT TIMES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHEAST AL...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS
TO BE VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THIS -- ALONG WITH A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WELL
MIXED PBL -- SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR NOCTURNAL FOG. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...OR AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MEANWHILE...A VORT MAX WITHIN THE BASE OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COMPLETELY CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY AND SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE INTO THE OZARKS REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A DEEPENING LOW FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS CAN BE
SEEN IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC VEERING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ALREADY IN PLACE FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHERE LINGERING DRY
AIR BELOW 700-MB WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE. DUE TO THE ONSET
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE MID 60S -- OR AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE OZARKS MID-LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE
AND SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION -- AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE COOL SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA/AL AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WITH SOUNDINGS
INDICATING LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY WE SIMPLY EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING
FROM NW-TO-SE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...MAINTAINING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXTENDED
RANGE GEM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE DOES OFFER EVIDENCE OF A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS FROM W TO N/NW. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND HAS CAUSED
SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3 MILES AT HSV AND 5 MILES AT
MSL...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER 12Z. A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK
ACROSS NORTHERN TN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM N TO S THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS AOA 1500FT EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL HELP TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261120
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
620 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 538 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT HAS NOW BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS 500-MB HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH PUSHING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...AN INITIAL SURGE
OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING --
WITH A STRONGER SURGE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN VALUES OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
ARRIVAL OF THICKER STRATUS...A PRONOUNCED N-S ORIENTED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WAS INDICATED IN THE MAX T GRID FOR TODAY. OVERALL...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GUSTY NORTH
WIND AT TIMES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHEAST AL...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS
TO BE VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THIS -- ALONG WITH A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WELL
MIXED PBL -- SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR NOCTURNAL FOG. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...OR AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MEANWHILE...A VORT MAX WITHIN THE BASE OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COMPLETELY CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY AND SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE INTO THE OZARKS REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A DEEPENING LOW FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS CAN BE
SEEN IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC VEERING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ALREADY IN PLACE FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHERE LINGERING DRY
AIR BELOW 700-MB WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE. DUE TO THE ONSET
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE MID 60S -- OR AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE OZARKS MID-LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE
AND SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION -- AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE COOL SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA/AL AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WITH SOUNDINGS
INDICATING LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY WE SIMPLY EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING
FROM NW-TO-SE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...MAINTAINING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXTENDED
RANGE GEM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE DOES OFFER EVIDENCE OF A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS FROM W TO N/NW. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND HAS CAUSED
SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3 MILES AT HSV AND 5 MILES AT
MSL...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER 12Z. A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK
ACROSS NORTHERN TN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM N TO S THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS AOA 1500FT EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL HELP TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 261038
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
538 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT HAS NOW BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS 500-MB HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH PUSHING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...AN INITIAL SURGE
OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING --
WITH A STRONGER SURGE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN VALUES OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
ARRIVAL OF THICKER STRATUS...A PRONOUNCED N-S ORIENTED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WAS INDICATED IN THE MAX T GRID FOR TODAY. OVERALL...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GUSTY NORTH
WIND AT TIMES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHEAST AL...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS
TO BE VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THIS -- ALONG WITH A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WELL
MIXED PBL -- SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR NOCTURNAL FOG. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...OR AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MEANWHILE...A VORT MAX WITHIN THE BASE OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COMPLETELY CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY AND SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE INTO THE OZARKS REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A DEEPENING LOW FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS CAN BE
SEEN IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC VEERING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ALREADY IN PLACE FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHERE LINGERING DRY
AIR BELOW 700-MB WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE. DUE TO THE ONSET
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE MID 60S -- OR AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE OZARKS MID-LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE
AND SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION -- AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE COOL SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA/AL AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WITH SOUNDINGS
INDICATING LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY WE SIMPLY EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING
FROM NW-TO-SE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...MAINTAINING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXTENDED
RANGE GEM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE DOES OFFER EVIDENCE OF A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA STILL PSBL. THESE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA BY 10Z AT THE LATEST. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
INCLUDED A PERIOD FROM 12-15Z WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CLEAR THE SKY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  48  70  49 /  10  10  10  20
SHOALS        72  49  70  50 /  10  10  10  30
VINEMONT      74  49  70  50 /  10  10  10  30
FAYETTEVILLE  68  44  66  45 /  10  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   74  49  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
FORT PAYNE    72  45  68  46 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261038
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
538 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT HAS NOW BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS 500-MB HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH PUSHING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...AN INITIAL SURGE
OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING --
WITH A STRONGER SURGE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN VALUES OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
ARRIVAL OF THICKER STRATUS...A PRONOUNCED N-S ORIENTED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WAS INDICATED IN THE MAX T GRID FOR TODAY. OVERALL...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GUSTY NORTH
WIND AT TIMES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHEAST AL...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS
TO BE VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THIS -- ALONG WITH A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WELL
MIXED PBL -- SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR NOCTURNAL FOG. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...OR AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MEANWHILE...A VORT MAX WITHIN THE BASE OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COMPLETELY CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY AND SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE INTO THE OZARKS REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A DEEPENING LOW FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS CAN BE
SEEN IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC VEERING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ALREADY IN PLACE FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHERE LINGERING DRY
AIR BELOW 700-MB WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE. DUE TO THE ONSET
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE MID 60S -- OR AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE OZARKS MID-LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE
AND SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION -- AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE COOL SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA/AL AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WITH SOUNDINGS
INDICATING LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY WE SIMPLY EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING
FROM NW-TO-SE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...MAINTAINING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXTENDED
RANGE GEM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE DOES OFFER EVIDENCE OF A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA STILL PSBL. THESE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA BY 10Z AT THE LATEST. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
INCLUDED A PERIOD FROM 12-15Z WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CLEAR THE SKY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  48  70  49 /  10  10  10  20
SHOALS        72  49  70  50 /  10  10  10  30
VINEMONT      74  49  70  50 /  10  10  10  30
FAYETTEVILLE  68  44  66  45 /  10  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   74  49  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
FORT PAYNE    72  45  68  46 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 261010
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DETECTING NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 4 AM CDT. REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ESTIMATED BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR CWFA. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER INLAND AREAS TO AROUND 1.25
IN. NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND LIFT...THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ARE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP... SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF ISOLATED CONVECTION
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THAT MLCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A BEAUMONT MS...CITRONELLE AL...CRESTVIEW FL LINE. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.

THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 89 AT MOBILE (LAST SET IN 1989) AND
88 AT PENSACOLA (LAST SET IN 1988). /21

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OVER THE NM/TX
BORDER TO JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE TX COAST THEN TAKES IT EAST ALONG...BUT SOUTH...OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO BECOME CENTERED SOUTH OF KPNS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...WHICH HELPS TO ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. SPEAKING OF THE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST OF TX AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE LA COAST...THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH MOST OF IT BEING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INDUCED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILLS TART OUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COAST...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA.
WITH THIS PATH...ORGANIZING A WARM FRONT ALONG AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAID OUT WITH THE PAST SYSTEM...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BR LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POINTS SOUTH. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WATER PROBLEMS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. IF THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTH THE RISK OF
WATER AND STRONG STORMS SHIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES MORE OF A PROBLEM
FOR THE COAST AND INLAND. AT THIS POINT...JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILST DEORGANIZING IT. THE FA COMES UNDER POST
SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS/RAIN. TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DISORGANIZED UPPER
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FA...WITH THE
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE OPENING UP. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WITH NARY A RAINCLOUD IN SIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TOT HE
EAST...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...PATCHY IFR CIGS
AND MVFR TO IFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING
WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THEREAFTER. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5-
10 KNOTS OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF A SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY. /21

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  64  80  64  78 /  10  20  40  50  60
PENSACOLA   87  66  81  68  78 /  20  20  40  50  60
DESTIN      84  69  80  67  78 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   88  60  79  59  79 /  10  10  20  40  30
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  68 /  10  10  10  50  60
CAMDEN      88  59  78  56  73 /  05  10  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   90  61  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261010
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DETECTING NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 4 AM CDT. REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ESTIMATED BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR CWFA. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER INLAND AREAS TO AROUND 1.25
IN. NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND LIFT...THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ARE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP... SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF ISOLATED CONVECTION
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THAT MLCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A BEAUMONT MS...CITRONELLE AL...CRESTVIEW FL LINE. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.

THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 89 AT MOBILE (LAST SET IN 1989) AND
88 AT PENSACOLA (LAST SET IN 1988). /21

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OVER THE NM/TX
BORDER TO JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE TX COAST THEN TAKES IT EAST ALONG...BUT SOUTH...OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO BECOME CENTERED SOUTH OF KPNS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...WHICH HELPS TO ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. SPEAKING OF THE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST OF TX AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE LA COAST...THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH MOST OF IT BEING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INDUCED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILLS TART OUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COAST...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA.
WITH THIS PATH...ORGANIZING A WARM FRONT ALONG AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAID OUT WITH THE PAST SYSTEM...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BR LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POINTS SOUTH. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WATER PROBLEMS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. IF THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTH THE RISK OF
WATER AND STRONG STORMS SHIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES MORE OF A PROBLEM
FOR THE COAST AND INLAND. AT THIS POINT...JUST INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILST DEORGANIZING IT. THE FA COMES UNDER POST
SYSTEM NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS/RAIN. TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DISORGANIZED UPPER
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DRIER...COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FA...WITH THE
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE OPENING UP. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WITH NARY A RAINCLOUD IN SIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TOT HE
EAST...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESTORED TO THE AREA...MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...PATCHY IFR CIGS
AND MVFR TO IFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING
WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THEREAFTER. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5-
10 KNOTS OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF A SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY. /21

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  64  80  64  78 /  10  20  40  50  60
PENSACOLA   87  66  81  68  78 /  20  20  40  50  60
DESTIN      84  69  80  67  78 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   88  60  79  59  79 /  10  10  20  40  30
WAYNESBORO  88  60  78  58  68 /  10  10  10  50  60
CAMDEN      88  59  78  56  73 /  05  10  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   90  61  83  64  81 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 260833
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND THE FAR NORTH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO AROUND 4-7KTS. A MOIST LOW LEVEL LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH
IFR EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED LIFR. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY MID DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  49  70  48  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    80  53  72  50  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  81  54  73  52  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  84  56  74  54  70 /  10   0   0  10  40
CALERA      82  55  73  53  69 /  10   0   0  10  40
AUBURN      83  56  74  53  69 /  10   0   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  87  59  77  56  73 /  10   0   0  10  50
TROY        87  60  79  57  73 /  10   0  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 260833
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND THE FAR NORTH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO AROUND 4-7KTS. A MOIST LOW LEVEL LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH
IFR EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED LIFR. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY MID DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  49  70  48  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    80  53  72  50  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  81  54  73  52  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  84  56  74  54  70 /  10   0   0  10  40
CALERA      82  55  73  53  69 /  10   0   0  10  40
AUBURN      83  56  74  53  69 /  10   0   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  87  59  77  56  73 /  10   0   0  10  50
TROY        87  60  79  57  73 /  10   0  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 260833
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND THE FAR NORTH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO AROUND 4-7KTS. A MOIST LOW LEVEL LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH
IFR EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED LIFR. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY MID DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  49  70  48  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    80  53  72  50  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  81  54  73  52  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  84  56  74  54  70 /  10   0   0  10  40
CALERA      82  55  73  53  69 /  10   0   0  10  40
AUBURN      83  56  74  53  69 /  10   0   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  87  59  77  56  73 /  10   0   0  10  50
TROY        87  60  79  57  73 /  10   0  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 260833
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND THE FAR NORTH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO AROUND 4-7KTS. A MOIST LOW LEVEL LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH
IFR EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED LIFR. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY MID DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  49  70  48  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    80  53  72  50  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  81  54  73  52  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  84  56  74  54  70 /  10   0   0  10  40
CALERA      82  55  73  53  69 /  10   0   0  10  40
AUBURN      83  56  74  53  69 /  10   0   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  87  59  77  56  73 /  10   0   0  10  50
TROY        87  60  79  57  73 /  10   0  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 260833
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY BUT
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP PRECIPITATION AS IT LOOKS TOO
DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN AND NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...A FEW
70S FAR NORTH.

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL
WITH. UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEAD EASTWARD
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LOWER LATITUDE TRACK WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THE SECOND HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE NUMBERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND THE FAR NORTH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO AROUND 4-7KTS. A MOIST LOW LEVEL LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH
IFR EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED LIFR. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY MID DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  49  70  48  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    80  53  72  50  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  81  54  73  52  69 /  10   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  84  56  74  54  70 /  10   0   0  10  40
CALERA      82  55  73  53  69 /  10   0   0  10  40
AUBURN      83  56  74  53  69 /  10   0   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  87  59  77  56  73 /  10   0   0  10  50
TROY        87  60  79  57  73 /  10   0  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260514 AAD
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1043 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRIGGER T-STORMS SE OF
NASHVILLE. THESE ARE SLOWLY BACK-BUILDING AS HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY
HRRR AND RAP THIS EVENING. WILL EXTEND POP THRU 09Z BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE STORMS WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
AND BACKING A BIT ON THE KHTX VWP ALL EVENING LONG YIELDING 1KM SRH
VALUES OF 300-400 M2/S2. THE GREATEST RISK OF A FEW STORMS WILL BE IN
OUR TN COUNTIES AND THE NERN TIP OF AL.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA STILL PSBL. THESE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA BY 10Z AT THE LATEST. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
INCLUDED A PERIOD FROM 12-15Z WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CLEAR THE SKY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260514 AAD
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1043 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRIGGER T-STORMS SE OF
NASHVILLE. THESE ARE SLOWLY BACK-BUILDING AS HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY
HRRR AND RAP THIS EVENING. WILL EXTEND POP THRU 09Z BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE STORMS WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
AND BACKING A BIT ON THE KHTX VWP ALL EVENING LONG YIELDING 1KM SRH
VALUES OF 300-400 M2/S2. THE GREATEST RISK OF A FEW STORMS WILL BE IN
OUR TN COUNTIES AND THE NERN TIP OF AL.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA STILL PSBL. THESE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA BY 10Z AT THE LATEST. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
INCLUDED A PERIOD FROM 12-15Z WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CLEAR THE SKY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 260512 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1212 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF CI/CS CLOSER TO THE COAST...P6SM SKC
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY NOTED ACROSS TERMINALS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE PROBLEM FOR THE 26/0600 UTC TAF PACKAGE
REMAINS CENTERED AROUND BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLE
FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS.

LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE LAYER
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND BASE OF THE INVERSION WILL BE QUITE AS MOIST.
AS SUCH...LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND ASSOCIATED
TIMING IN THE LATEST TERMINALS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
IN WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTTY -SHRA
REMAINED S OF THE IH-10 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE MAJOR COASTAL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE 0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE.

PROBLEM FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL INVOLVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. GIVEN AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE...I
FEEL WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EVEN WITH THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST ODDS OF
SEEING IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 26/0600-0900 UTC. AS SUCH...I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING WITH THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE. THE INVERSION SHOULD
LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RETURN
BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260512 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1212 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF CI/CS CLOSER TO THE COAST...P6SM SKC
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY NOTED ACROSS TERMINALS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE PROBLEM FOR THE 26/0600 UTC TAF PACKAGE
REMAINS CENTERED AROUND BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLE
FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS.

LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE LAYER
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND BASE OF THE INVERSION WILL BE QUITE AS MOIST.
AS SUCH...LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND ASSOCIATED
TIMING IN THE LATEST TERMINALS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
IN WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTTY -SHRA
REMAINED S OF THE IH-10 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE MAJOR COASTAL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE 0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE.

PROBLEM FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL INVOLVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. GIVEN AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE...I
FEEL WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EVEN WITH THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST ODDS OF
SEEING IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 26/0600-0900 UTC. AS SUCH...I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING WITH THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE. THE INVERSION SHOULD
LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RETURN
BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260512 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1212 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF CI/CS CLOSER TO THE COAST...P6SM SKC
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY NOTED ACROSS TERMINALS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE PROBLEM FOR THE 26/0600 UTC TAF PACKAGE
REMAINS CENTERED AROUND BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLE
FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS.

LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE LAYER
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND BASE OF THE INVERSION WILL BE QUITE AS MOIST.
AS SUCH...LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND ASSOCIATED
TIMING IN THE LATEST TERMINALS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
IN WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTTY -SHRA
REMAINED S OF THE IH-10 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE MAJOR COASTAL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE 0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE.

PROBLEM FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL INVOLVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. GIVEN AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE...I
FEEL WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EVEN WITH THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST ODDS OF
SEEING IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 26/0600-0900 UTC. AS SUCH...I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING WITH THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE. THE INVERSION SHOULD
LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RETURN
BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260512 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1212 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF CI/CS CLOSER TO THE COAST...P6SM SKC
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY NOTED ACROSS TERMINALS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE PROBLEM FOR THE 26/0600 UTC TAF PACKAGE
REMAINS CENTERED AROUND BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLE
FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS.

LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE LAYER
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND BASE OF THE INVERSION WILL BE QUITE AS MOIST.
AS SUCH...LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND ASSOCIATED
TIMING IN THE LATEST TERMINALS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
IN WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTTY -SHRA
REMAINED S OF THE IH-10 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE MAJOR COASTAL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE 0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE.

PROBLEM FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL INVOLVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. GIVEN AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE...I
FEEL WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EVEN WITH THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST ODDS OF
SEEING IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 26/0600-0900 UTC. AS SUCH...I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING WITH THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE. THE INVERSION SHOULD
LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RETURN
BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260512 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1212 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF CI/CS CLOSER TO THE COAST...P6SM SKC
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY NOTED ACROSS TERMINALS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE PROBLEM FOR THE 26/0600 UTC TAF PACKAGE
REMAINS CENTERED AROUND BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLE
FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS.

LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE LAYER
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND BASE OF THE INVERSION WILL BE QUITE AS MOIST.
AS SUCH...LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND ASSOCIATED
TIMING IN THE LATEST TERMINALS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
IN WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTTY -SHRA
REMAINED S OF THE IH-10 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE MAJOR COASTAL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE 0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE.

PROBLEM FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL INVOLVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. GIVEN AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE...I
FEEL WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EVEN WITH THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST ODDS OF
SEEING IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 26/0600-0900 UTC. AS SUCH...I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING WITH THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE. THE INVERSION SHOULD
LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RETURN
BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260512 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1212 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF CI/CS CLOSER TO THE COAST...P6SM SKC
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY NOTED ACROSS TERMINALS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE PROBLEM FOR THE 26/0600 UTC TAF PACKAGE
REMAINS CENTERED AROUND BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLE
FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS.

LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE LAYER
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND BASE OF THE INVERSION WILL BE QUITE AS MOIST.
AS SUCH...LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND ASSOCIATED
TIMING IN THE LATEST TERMINALS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
IN WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTTY -SHRA
REMAINED S OF THE IH-10 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE MAJOR COASTAL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE 0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE.

PROBLEM FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL INVOLVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. GIVEN AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE...I
FEEL WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EVEN WITH THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST ODDS OF
SEEING IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 26/0600-0900 UTC. AS SUCH...I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING WITH THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE. THE INVERSION SHOULD
LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RETURN
BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 260445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT CAME THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING
ARE NOW WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLAYER
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN TENNESSE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PASS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EVEN IF IT MOVES OVER THE AREA...EXPECT
THE DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SOME
VISIBILITIES IN THE 6-7 MILE RANGE AND EXPECT THESE TO CONDITION
TO DROP TONIGHT.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND THE FAR NORTH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO AROUND 4-7KTS. A MOIST LOW LEVEL LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH
IFR EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED LIFR. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY MID DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES.


14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 260445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT CAME THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING
ARE NOW WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLAYER
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN TENNESSE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PASS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EVEN IF IT MOVES OVER THE AREA...EXPECT
THE DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SOME
VISIBILITIES IN THE 6-7 MILE RANGE AND EXPECT THESE TO CONDITION
TO DROP TONIGHT.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND THE FAR NORTH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO AROUND 4-7KTS. A MOIST LOW LEVEL LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH
IFR EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED LIFR. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY MID DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES.


14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 260445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT CAME THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING
ARE NOW WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLAYER
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN TENNESSE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PASS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EVEN IF IT MOVES OVER THE AREA...EXPECT
THE DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SOME
VISIBILITIES IN THE 6-7 MILE RANGE AND EXPECT THESE TO CONDITION
TO DROP TONIGHT.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND THE FAR NORTH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO AROUND 4-7KTS. A MOIST LOW LEVEL LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH
IFR EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED LIFR. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY MID DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES.


14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 260445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT CAME THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING
ARE NOW WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLAYER
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN TENNESSE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PASS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EVEN IF IT MOVES OVER THE AREA...EXPECT
THE DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SOME
VISIBILITIES IN THE 6-7 MILE RANGE AND EXPECT THESE TO CONDITION
TO DROP TONIGHT.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND THE FAR NORTH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO AROUND 4-7KTS. A MOIST LOW LEVEL LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH
IFR EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED LIFR. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY MID DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES.


14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260343 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1043 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
TO EXTEND POP THRU 09Z.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRIGGER T-STORMS SE OF
NASHVILLE. THESE ARE SLOWLY BACK-BUILDING AS HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY
HRRR AND RAP THIS EVENING. WILL EXTEND POP THRU 09Z BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE STORMS WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
AND BACKING A BIT ON THE KHTX VWP ALL EVENING LONG YIELDING 1KM SRH
VALUES OF 300-400 M2/S2. THE GREATEST RISK OF A FEW STORMS WILL BE IN
OUR TN COUNTIES AND THE NERN TIP OF AL.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE...HAVE ADDED VCSH AND MVFR CIGS FOR THE
0400-0700Z TIME FRAME. TS FORMATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION THIS ISSUANCE. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD
BECOME NW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. VFR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BEFORE DAWN...
WITH 5-10KT NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.

RSB

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260343 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1043 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
TO EXTEND POP THRU 09Z.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRIGGER T-STORMS SE OF
NASHVILLE. THESE ARE SLOWLY BACK-BUILDING AS HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY
HRRR AND RAP THIS EVENING. WILL EXTEND POP THRU 09Z BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE STORMS WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
AND BACKING A BIT ON THE KHTX VWP ALL EVENING LONG YIELDING 1KM SRH
VALUES OF 300-400 M2/S2. THE GREATEST RISK OF A FEW STORMS WILL BE IN
OUR TN COUNTIES AND THE NERN TIP OF AL.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE...HAVE ADDED VCSH AND MVFR CIGS FOR THE
0400-0700Z TIME FRAME. TS FORMATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION THIS ISSUANCE. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD
BECOME NW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. VFR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BEFORE DAWN...
WITH 5-10KT NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.

RSB

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 260226
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
926 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT CAME THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING
ARE NOW WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLAYER
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN TENNESSE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PASS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EVEN IF IT MOVES OVER THE AREA...EXPECT
THE DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SOME
VISIBILITIES IN THE 6-7 MILE RANGE AND EXPECT THESE TO CONDITION
TO DROP TONIGHT.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
MVFR TO VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10KTS. A MOIST
LOW LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT WITH IFR EXPECTED. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY MID
DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR
SKIES.

14


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260010 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
710 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTTY -SHRA
REMAINED S OF THE IH-10 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE MAJOR COASTAL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE 0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE.

PROBLEM FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL INVOLVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. GIVEN AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE...I
FEEL WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EVEN WITH THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST ODDS OF
SEEING IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 26/0600-0900 UTC. AS SUCH...I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING WITH THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE. THE INVERSION SHOULD
LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RETURN
BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.  /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 260010 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
710 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTTY -SHRA
REMAINED S OF THE IH-10 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE MAJOR COASTAL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE 0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE.

PROBLEM FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL INVOLVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. GIVEN AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE...I
FEEL WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EVEN WITH THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST ODDS OF
SEEING IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 26/0600-0900 UTC. AS SUCH...I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING WITH THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE. THE INVERSION SHOULD
LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RETURN
BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.  /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260010 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
710 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTTY -SHRA
REMAINED S OF THE IH-10 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE MAJOR COASTAL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE 0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE.

PROBLEM FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL INVOLVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. GIVEN AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE...I
FEEL WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EVEN WITH THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST ODDS OF
SEEING IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 26/0600-0900 UTC. AS SUCH...I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING WITH THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE. THE INVERSION SHOULD
LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RETURN
BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.  /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260010 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
710 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTTY -SHRA
REMAINED S OF THE IH-10 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE MAJOR COASTAL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE 0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE.

PROBLEM FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL INVOLVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. GIVEN AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE...I
FEEL WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EVEN WITH THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST ODDS OF
SEEING IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 26/0600-0900 UTC. AS SUCH...I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING WITH THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE. THE INVERSION SHOULD
LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RETURN
BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.  /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 252357
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO ALABAMA FROM
MISSISSIPPI. THE CORE OF THE MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE COMPLEX COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 6 PM THIS EVENING...
AND JUST LEFT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 9 PM TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING STORMS. A SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR ANY CONVECTION ALONG FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE EASTERN TROF WILL FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY AND THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL PULL
SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ALABAMA ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES ALABAMA THE SURFACE FLOW
STAYS MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEYOND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST OF ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS ELONGATES THE TROF AND HANGS IT UP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THE CANADIAN AND DGEX MODELS SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND FAVORED THIS SCENARIO.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
MVFR TO VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10KTS. A MOIST
LOW LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT WITH IFR EXPECTED. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY MID
DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR
SKIES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  71  47 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  72  50 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  81  55  73  51 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  53 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      65  82  56  74  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      65  82  57  75  53 /  30  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10   0  10  10
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 252357
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO ALABAMA FROM
MISSISSIPPI. THE CORE OF THE MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE COMPLEX COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 6 PM THIS EVENING...
AND JUST LEFT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 9 PM TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING STORMS. A SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR ANY CONVECTION ALONG FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE EASTERN TROF WILL FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY AND THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL PULL
SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ALABAMA ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES ALABAMA THE SURFACE FLOW
STAYS MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEYOND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST OF ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS ELONGATES THE TROF AND HANGS IT UP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THE CANADIAN AND DGEX MODELS SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND FAVORED THIS SCENARIO.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
MVFR TO VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10KTS. A MOIST
LOW LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT WITH IFR EXPECTED. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY MID
DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR
SKIES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  71  47 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  72  50 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  81  55  73  51 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  53 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      65  82  56  74  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      65  82  57  75  53 /  30  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10   0  10  10
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 252357
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO ALABAMA FROM
MISSISSIPPI. THE CORE OF THE MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE COMPLEX COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 6 PM THIS EVENING...
AND JUST LEFT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 9 PM TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING STORMS. A SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR ANY CONVECTION ALONG FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE EASTERN TROF WILL FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY AND THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL PULL
SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ALABAMA ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES ALABAMA THE SURFACE FLOW
STAYS MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEYOND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST OF ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS ELONGATES THE TROF AND HANGS IT UP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THE CANADIAN AND DGEX MODELS SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND FAVORED THIS SCENARIO.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
MVFR TO VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10KTS. A MOIST
LOW LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT WITH IFR EXPECTED. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY MID
DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR
SKIES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  71  47 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  72  50 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  81  55  73  51 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  53 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      65  82  56  74  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      65  82  57  75  53 /  30  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10   0  10  10
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 252357
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO ALABAMA FROM
MISSISSIPPI. THE CORE OF THE MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE COMPLEX COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 6 PM THIS EVENING...
AND JUST LEFT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 9 PM TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING STORMS. A SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR ANY CONVECTION ALONG FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE EASTERN TROF WILL FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY AND THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL PULL
SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ALABAMA ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES ALABAMA THE SURFACE FLOW
STAYS MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEYOND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST OF ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS ELONGATES THE TROF AND HANGS IT UP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THE CANADIAN AND DGEX MODELS SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND FAVORED THIS SCENARIO.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
MVFR TO VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10KTS. A MOIST
LOW LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT...AND WITH MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT WITH IFR EXPECTED. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY MID
DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR
SKIES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  71  47 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  72  50 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  81  55  73  51 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  53 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      65  82  56  74  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      65  82  57  75  53 /  30  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10   0  10  10
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 252336 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
/ISSUED 613 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT
MESOSCALE TRENDS. CI/CS CANOPY HAS NOW EXITED SRN TN AND NWRN AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME LATE DAY HEATING. A LOW LEVEL
MIXED LAYER HAS ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE CLOUDS ACROSS MIDDLE AND
WESTERN TN INTO AR AND NWRN MS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN THIS REGION
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S. THIS HAS PRODUCED A WEAK
BOUNDARY WHERE SOME CU HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR NASHVILLE INTO NRN MS.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH TEMPS
IN THE U70S-L80S, MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IN
NRN AL AND EASTERN MIDDLE TN AND EVEN HIGHER OVER MS. SUPERCELL
PARAMETERS (CAPE/SHEAR COMBO) ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IF DEEP
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE WAS QUITE WEAK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, SO DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY ALONG THIS
FEATURE AT LEAST INITIALLY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BACKBUILD ALONG THE OH RIVER ALONG THE KY/IL BORDER. THE HRRR AND RAP
HAVE SUGGESTED IN RECENT RUNS THAT THIS WILL PERSIST WITH CONVECTION
REACHING SRN MIDDLE TN AND NERN AL BETWEEN 04-07Z. IN FACT, THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION THAT CONVERGENCE FROM OUTFLOW MAY IGNITE THE EXISTING
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THUS, WE HAVE REARRANGED THE CHC POP
CONFIGURATION SLIGHTLY IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS SRN TN AND NERN AL
FOR THIS EVENING.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THE LAST SEVERAL RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE EVENING DUE
TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS
LIMITED ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3300 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -11. THE LACK OF A TRIGGERING MECHANISM
HAS BEEN THE KEY TO THE LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
00Z TONIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FURTHER
PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ONE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP IN CHANCE SHRA POPS. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE BY 12Z THURSDAY IN NORTH GEORGIA. WILL KEEP
IN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA POPS DURING THE TUESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE...HAVE ADDED VCSH AND MVFR CIGS FOR THE
0400-0700Z TIME FRAME. TS FORMATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION THIS ISSUANCE. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD
BECOME NW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. VFR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BEFORE DAWN...
WITH 5-10KT NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 252336 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
/ISSUED 613 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT
MESOSCALE TRENDS. CI/CS CANOPY HAS NOW EXITED SRN TN AND NWRN AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME LATE DAY HEATING. A LOW LEVEL
MIXED LAYER HAS ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE CLOUDS ACROSS MIDDLE AND
WESTERN TN INTO AR AND NWRN MS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN THIS REGION
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S. THIS HAS PRODUCED A WEAK
BOUNDARY WHERE SOME CU HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR NASHVILLE INTO NRN MS.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH TEMPS
IN THE U70S-L80S, MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IN
NRN AL AND EASTERN MIDDLE TN AND EVEN HIGHER OVER MS. SUPERCELL
PARAMETERS (CAPE/SHEAR COMBO) ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IF DEEP
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE WAS QUITE WEAK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, SO DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY ALONG THIS
FEATURE AT LEAST INITIALLY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BACKBUILD ALONG THE OH RIVER ALONG THE KY/IL BORDER. THE HRRR AND RAP
HAVE SUGGESTED IN RECENT RUNS THAT THIS WILL PERSIST WITH CONVECTION
REACHING SRN MIDDLE TN AND NERN AL BETWEEN 04-07Z. IN FACT, THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION THAT CONVERGENCE FROM OUTFLOW MAY IGNITE THE EXISTING
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THUS, WE HAVE REARRANGED THE CHC POP
CONFIGURATION SLIGHTLY IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS SRN TN AND NERN AL
FOR THIS EVENING.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THE LAST SEVERAL RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE EVENING DUE
TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS
LIMITED ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3300 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -11. THE LACK OF A TRIGGERING MECHANISM
HAS BEEN THE KEY TO THE LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
00Z TONIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FURTHER
PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ONE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP IN CHANCE SHRA POPS. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE BY 12Z THURSDAY IN NORTH GEORGIA. WILL KEEP
IN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA POPS DURING THE TUESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE...HAVE ADDED VCSH AND MVFR CIGS FOR THE
0400-0700Z TIME FRAME. TS FORMATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION THIS ISSUANCE. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD
BECOME NW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. VFR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BEFORE DAWN...
WITH 5-10KT NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 252313 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT
MESOSCALE TRENDS. CI/CS CANOPY HAS NOW EXITED SRN TN AND NWRN AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME LATE DAY HEATING. A LOW LEVEL
MIXED LAYER HAS ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE CLOUDS ACROSS MIDDLE AND
WESTERN TN INTO AR AND NWRN MS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN THIS REGION
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S. THIS HAS PRODUCED A WEAK
BOUNDARY WHERE SOME CU HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR NASHVILLE INTO NRN MS.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH TEMPS
IN THE U70S-L80S, MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IN
NRN AL AND EASTERN MIDDLE TN AND EVEN HIGHER OVER MS. SUPERCELL
PARAMETERS (CAPE/SHEAR COMBO) ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IF DEEP
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE WAS QUITE WEAK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, SO DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY ALONG THIS
FEATURE AT LEAST INITIALLY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BACKBUILD ALONG THE OH RIVER ALONG THE KY/IL BORDER. THE HRRR AND RAP
HAVE SUGGESTED IN RECENT RUNS THAT THIS WILL PERSIST WITH CONVECTION
REACHING SRN MIDDLE TN AND NERN AL BETWEEN 04-07Z. IN FACT, THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION THAT CONVERGENCE FROM OUTFLOW MAY IGNITE THE EXISTING
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THUS, WE HAVE REARRANGED THE CHC POP
CONFIGURATION SLIGHTLY IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS SRN TN AND NERN AL
FOR THIS EVENING.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THE LAST SEVERAL RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE EVENING DUE
TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS
LIMITED ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3300 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -11. THE LACK OF A TRIGGERING MECHANISM
HAS BEEN THE KEY TO THE LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
00Z TONIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FURTHER
PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ONE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP IN CHANCE SHRA POPS. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE BY 12Z THURSDAY IN NORTH GEORGIA. WILL KEEP
IN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA POPS DURING THE TUESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 252313 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT
MESOSCALE TRENDS. CI/CS CANOPY HAS NOW EXITED SRN TN AND NWRN AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME LATE DAY HEATING. A LOW LEVEL
MIXED LAYER HAS ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE CLOUDS ACROSS MIDDLE AND
WESTERN TN INTO AR AND NWRN MS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN THIS REGION
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S. THIS HAS PRODUCED A WEAK
BOUNDARY WHERE SOME CU HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR NASHVILLE INTO NRN MS.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH TEMPS
IN THE U70S-L80S, MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IN
NRN AL AND EASTERN MIDDLE TN AND EVEN HIGHER OVER MS. SUPERCELL
PARAMETERS (CAPE/SHEAR COMBO) ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IF DEEP
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE WAS QUITE WEAK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, SO DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY ALONG THIS
FEATURE AT LEAST INITIALLY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BACKBUILD ALONG THE OH RIVER ALONG THE KY/IL BORDER. THE HRRR AND RAP
HAVE SUGGESTED IN RECENT RUNS THAT THIS WILL PERSIST WITH CONVECTION
REACHING SRN MIDDLE TN AND NERN AL BETWEEN 04-07Z. IN FACT, THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION THAT CONVERGENCE FROM OUTFLOW MAY IGNITE THE EXISTING
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THUS, WE HAVE REARRANGED THE CHC POP
CONFIGURATION SLIGHTLY IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS SRN TN AND NERN AL
FOR THIS EVENING.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THE LAST SEVERAL RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE EVENING DUE
TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS
LIMITED ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3300 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -11. THE LACK OF A TRIGGERING MECHANISM
HAS BEEN THE KEY TO THE LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
00Z TONIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FURTHER
PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ONE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP IN CHANCE SHRA POPS. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE BY 12Z THURSDAY IN NORTH GEORGIA. WILL KEEP
IN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA POPS DURING THE TUESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 252313 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT
MESOSCALE TRENDS. CI/CS CANOPY HAS NOW EXITED SRN TN AND NWRN AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME LATE DAY HEATING. A LOW LEVEL
MIXED LAYER HAS ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE CLOUDS ACROSS MIDDLE AND
WESTERN TN INTO AR AND NWRN MS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN THIS REGION
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S. THIS HAS PRODUCED A WEAK
BOUNDARY WHERE SOME CU HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR NASHVILLE INTO NRN MS.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH TEMPS
IN THE U70S-L80S, MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IN
NRN AL AND EASTERN MIDDLE TN AND EVEN HIGHER OVER MS. SUPERCELL
PARAMETERS (CAPE/SHEAR COMBO) ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IF DEEP
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE WAS QUITE WEAK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, SO DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY ALONG THIS
FEATURE AT LEAST INITIALLY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BACKBUILD ALONG THE OH RIVER ALONG THE KY/IL BORDER. THE HRRR AND RAP
HAVE SUGGESTED IN RECENT RUNS THAT THIS WILL PERSIST WITH CONVECTION
REACHING SRN MIDDLE TN AND NERN AL BETWEEN 04-07Z. IN FACT, THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION THAT CONVERGENCE FROM OUTFLOW MAY IGNITE THE EXISTING
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THUS, WE HAVE REARRANGED THE CHC POP
CONFIGURATION SLIGHTLY IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS SRN TN AND NERN AL
FOR THIS EVENING.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THE LAST SEVERAL RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE EVENING DUE
TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS
LIMITED ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3300 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -11. THE LACK OF A TRIGGERING MECHANISM
HAS BEEN THE KEY TO THE LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
00Z TONIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FURTHER
PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ONE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP IN CHANCE SHRA POPS. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE BY 12Z THURSDAY IN NORTH GEORGIA. WILL KEEP
IN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA POPS DURING THE TUESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 252313 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT
MESOSCALE TRENDS. CI/CS CANOPY HAS NOW EXITED SRN TN AND NWRN AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME LATE DAY HEATING. A LOW LEVEL
MIXED LAYER HAS ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE CLOUDS ACROSS MIDDLE AND
WESTERN TN INTO AR AND NWRN MS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN THIS REGION
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S. THIS HAS PRODUCED A WEAK
BOUNDARY WHERE SOME CU HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR NASHVILLE INTO NRN MS.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH TEMPS
IN THE U70S-L80S, MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IN
NRN AL AND EASTERN MIDDLE TN AND EVEN HIGHER OVER MS. SUPERCELL
PARAMETERS (CAPE/SHEAR COMBO) ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IF DEEP
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE WAS QUITE WEAK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, SO DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY ALONG THIS
FEATURE AT LEAST INITIALLY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BACKBUILD ALONG THE OH RIVER ALONG THE KY/IL BORDER. THE HRRR AND RAP
HAVE SUGGESTED IN RECENT RUNS THAT THIS WILL PERSIST WITH CONVECTION
REACHING SRN MIDDLE TN AND NERN AL BETWEEN 04-07Z. IN FACT, THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION THAT CONVERGENCE FROM OUTFLOW MAY IGNITE THE EXISTING
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THUS, WE HAVE REARRANGED THE CHC POP
CONFIGURATION SLIGHTLY IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS SRN TN AND NERN AL
FOR THIS EVENING.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THE LAST SEVERAL RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE EVENING DUE
TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS
LIMITED ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3300 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -11. THE LACK OF A TRIGGERING MECHANISM
HAS BEEN THE KEY TO THE LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
00Z TONIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FURTHER
PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ONE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP IN CHANCE SHRA POPS. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE BY 12Z THURSDAY IN NORTH GEORGIA. WILL KEEP
IN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA POPS DURING THE TUESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 252313 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT
MESOSCALE TRENDS. CI/CS CANOPY HAS NOW EXITED SRN TN AND NWRN AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME LATE DAY HEATING. A LOW LEVEL
MIXED LAYER HAS ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE CLOUDS ACROSS MIDDLE AND
WESTERN TN INTO AR AND NWRN MS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN THIS REGION
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S. THIS HAS PRODUCED A WEAK
BOUNDARY WHERE SOME CU HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR NASHVILLE INTO NRN MS.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH TEMPS
IN THE U70S-L80S, MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IN
NRN AL AND EASTERN MIDDLE TN AND EVEN HIGHER OVER MS. SUPERCELL
PARAMETERS (CAPE/SHEAR COMBO) ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IF DEEP
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE WAS QUITE WEAK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, SO DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY ALONG THIS
FEATURE AT LEAST INITIALLY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BACKBUILD ALONG THE OH RIVER ALONG THE KY/IL BORDER. THE HRRR AND RAP
HAVE SUGGESTED IN RECENT RUNS THAT THIS WILL PERSIST WITH CONVECTION
REACHING SRN MIDDLE TN AND NERN AL BETWEEN 04-07Z. IN FACT, THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION THAT CONVERGENCE FROM OUTFLOW MAY IGNITE THE EXISTING
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THUS, WE HAVE REARRANGED THE CHC POP
CONFIGURATION SLIGHTLY IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS SRN TN AND NERN AL
FOR THIS EVENING.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THE LAST SEVERAL RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE EVENING DUE
TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS
LIMITED ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3300 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -11. THE LACK OF A TRIGGERING MECHANISM
HAS BEEN THE KEY TO THE LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
00Z TONIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FURTHER
PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ONE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP IN CHANCE SHRA POPS. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE BY 12Z THURSDAY IN NORTH GEORGIA. WILL KEEP
IN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA POPS DURING THE TUESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 252225 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 252225 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 252225 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 252225 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
525 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF
OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  05  05  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  05  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  05  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  05  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  05  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 252124
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  10  10  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  10  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  10  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  10  10  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  10  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  10  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  10  10  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 252124
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
424 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THIS HAS
CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE DRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. /13

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...
AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. /22

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES FURTHER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS
CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  65  81  63 /  10  10  20  40  60
PENSACOLA   72  85  69  81  66 /  10  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      73  81  70  82  65 /  10  20  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   68  88  61  83  56 /  10  10  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  67  88  63  80  58 /  10  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      67  88  61  80  54 /  10  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   70  88  64  85  61 /  10  10  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 252037
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO ALABAMA FROM
MISSISSIPPI. THE CORE OF THE MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE COMPLEX COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 6 PM THIS EVENING...
AND JUST LEFT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 9 PM TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING STORMS. A SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR ANY CONVECTION ALONG FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE EASTERN TROF WILL FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY AND THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL PULL
SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ALABAMA ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES ALABAMA THE SURFACE FLOW
STAYS MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEYOND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST OF ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS ELONGATES THE TROF AND HANGS IT UP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THE CANADIAN AND DGEX MODELS SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND FAVORED THIS SCENARIO.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. ONLY
MENTION IN TAFS WILL BE AT MGM/TOI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF ALL OTHER
TERMINALS AS THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW. ONE THING NOT HELPING
REDEVELOPMENT IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME MVFR STRATOCU AT A FEW SPOTS WHICH FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD GO TO VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE TOI...WHICH IS
LOWER AND MAY STRUGGLE GETTING THERE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES SOUTH TAFS...MGM/TOI DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY.

08/MK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  71  47 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  72  50 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  81  55  73  51 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  53 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      65  82  56  74  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      65  82  57  75  53 /  30  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10   0  10  10
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 252037
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO ALABAMA FROM
MISSISSIPPI. THE CORE OF THE MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE COMPLEX COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 6 PM THIS EVENING...
AND JUST LEFT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 9 PM TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING STORMS. A SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR ANY CONVECTION ALONG FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE EASTERN TROF WILL FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY AND THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL PULL
SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ALABAMA ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES ALABAMA THE SURFACE FLOW
STAYS MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEYOND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST OF ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS ELONGATES THE TROF AND HANGS IT UP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THE CANADIAN AND DGEX MODELS SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND FAVORED THIS SCENARIO.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. ONLY
MENTION IN TAFS WILL BE AT MGM/TOI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF ALL OTHER
TERMINALS AS THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW. ONE THING NOT HELPING
REDEVELOPMENT IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME MVFR STRATOCU AT A FEW SPOTS WHICH FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD GO TO VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE TOI...WHICH IS
LOWER AND MAY STRUGGLE GETTING THERE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES SOUTH TAFS...MGM/TOI DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY.

08/MK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  71  47 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  72  50 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  81  55  73  51 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  53 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      65  82  56  74  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      65  82  57  75  53 /  30  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10   0  10  10
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 252037
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO ALABAMA FROM
MISSISSIPPI. THE CORE OF THE MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE COMPLEX COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 6 PM THIS EVENING...
AND JUST LEFT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 9 PM TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING STORMS. A SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR ANY CONVECTION ALONG FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE EASTERN TROF WILL FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY AND THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL PULL
SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ALABAMA ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES ALABAMA THE SURFACE FLOW
STAYS MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEYOND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST OF ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS ELONGATES THE TROF AND HANGS IT UP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THE CANADIAN AND DGEX MODELS SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND FAVORED THIS SCENARIO.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. ONLY
MENTION IN TAFS WILL BE AT MGM/TOI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF ALL OTHER
TERMINALS AS THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW. ONE THING NOT HELPING
REDEVELOPMENT IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME MVFR STRATOCU AT A FEW SPOTS WHICH FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD GO TO VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE TOI...WHICH IS
LOWER AND MAY STRUGGLE GETTING THERE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES SOUTH TAFS...MGM/TOI DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY.

08/MK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  71  47 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  72  50 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  81  55  73  51 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  53 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      65  82  56  74  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      65  82  57  75  53 /  30  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10   0  10  10
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 252037
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO ALABAMA FROM
MISSISSIPPI. THE CORE OF THE MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE COMPLEX COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 6 PM THIS EVENING...
AND JUST LEFT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 9 PM TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING STORMS. A SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR ANY CONVECTION ALONG FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE EASTERN TROF WILL FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY AND THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL PULL
SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ALABAMA ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES ALABAMA THE SURFACE FLOW
STAYS MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEYOND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST OF ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS ELONGATES THE TROF AND HANGS IT UP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THE CANADIAN AND DGEX MODELS SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND FAVORED THIS SCENARIO.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. ONLY
MENTION IN TAFS WILL BE AT MGM/TOI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF ALL OTHER
TERMINALS AS THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW. ONE THING NOT HELPING
REDEVELOPMENT IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME MVFR STRATOCU AT A FEW SPOTS WHICH FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD GO TO VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE TOI...WHICH IS
LOWER AND MAY STRUGGLE GETTING THERE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES SOUTH TAFS...MGM/TOI DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY.

08/MK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  71  47 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  72  50 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  81  55  73  51 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  53 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      65  82  56  74  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      65  82  57  75  53 /  30  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10   0  10  10
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251948
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THE LAST SEVERAL RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE EVENING DUE
TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS
LIMITED ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3300 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -11. THE LACK OF A TRIGGERING MECHANISM
HAS BEEN THE KEY TO THE LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
00Z TONIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FURTHER
PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ONE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP IN CHANCE SHRA POPS. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE BY 12Z THURSDAY IN NORTH GEORGIA. WILL KEEP
IN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA POPS DURING THE TUESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    62  77  50  72 /  20  10  10  10
SHOALS        62  76  50  72 /  20  10  10  10
VINEMONT      62  78  50  70 /  20  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  58  73  46  68 /  20  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   61  77  49  70 /  30  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    58  76  47  69 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251948
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THE LAST SEVERAL RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE EVENING DUE
TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS
LIMITED ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3300 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -11. THE LACK OF A TRIGGERING MECHANISM
HAS BEEN THE KEY TO THE LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
00Z TONIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FURTHER
PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ONE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP IN CHANCE SHRA POPS. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE BY 12Z THURSDAY IN NORTH GEORGIA. WILL KEEP
IN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA POPS DURING THE TUESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    62  77  50  72 /  20  10  10  10
SHOALS        62  76  50  72 /  20  10  10  10
VINEMONT      62  78  50  70 /  20  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  58  73  46  68 /  20  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   61  77  49  70 /  30  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    58  76  47  69 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251948
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THE LAST SEVERAL RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE EVENING DUE
TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS
LIMITED ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3300 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -11. THE LACK OF A TRIGGERING MECHANISM
HAS BEEN THE KEY TO THE LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
00Z TONIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FURTHER
PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ONE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP IN CHANCE SHRA POPS. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE BY 12Z THURSDAY IN NORTH GEORGIA. WILL KEEP
IN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA POPS DURING THE TUESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    62  77  50  72 /  20  10  10  10
SHOALS        62  76  50  72 /  20  10  10  10
VINEMONT      62  78  50  70 /  20  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  58  73  46  68 /  20  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   61  77  49  70 /  30  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    58  76  47  69 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251948
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THE LAST SEVERAL RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE EVENING DUE
TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS
LIMITED ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3300 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -11. THE LACK OF A TRIGGERING MECHANISM
HAS BEEN THE KEY TO THE LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
00Z TONIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FURTHER
PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ONE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP IN CHANCE SHRA POPS. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE BY 12Z THURSDAY IN NORTH GEORGIA. WILL KEEP
IN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA POPS DURING THE TUESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    62  77  50  72 /  20  10  10  10
SHOALS        62  76  50  72 /  20  10  10  10
VINEMONT      62  78  50  70 /  20  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  58  73  46  68 /  20  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   61  77  49  70 /  30  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    58  76  47  69 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 251808 AAE
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
107 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY
IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. /13

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT NEWLY ISSUED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN
INCREASING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA MOVING
EASTWARD. DOWNSTREAM...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED
INSTABILITY LEVELS TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK SR HELICITY AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  89  67  83  63 /  10  10  05  20  40
PENSACOLA   72  87  70  83  66 /  20  10  05  20  30
DESTIN      74  82  70  81  64 /  20  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   68  89  62  83  57 /  10  10  05  10  30
WAYNESBORO  67  90  64  80  61 /  10  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      68  89  61  80  59 /  10  05  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   70  90  65  86  63 /  20  10  05  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251808 AAE
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
107 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY
IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. /13

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT NEWLY ISSUED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN
INCREASING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA MOVING
EASTWARD. DOWNSTREAM...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED
INSTABILITY LEVELS TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK SR HELICITY AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  89  67  83  63 /  10  10  05  20  40
PENSACOLA   72  87  70  83  66 /  20  10  05  20  30
DESTIN      74  82  70  81  64 /  20  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   68  89  62  83  57 /  10  10  05  10  30
WAYNESBORO  67  90  64  80  61 /  10  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      68  89  61  80  59 /  10  05  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   70  90  65  86  63 /  20  10  05  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 251807 AAE
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
107 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT NEWLY ISSUED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN
INCREASING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA MOVING
EASTWARD. DOWNSTREAM...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED
INSTABILITY LEVELS TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK SR HELICITY AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  89  67  83  63 /  10  10  05  20  40
PENSACOLA   72  87  70  83  66 /  20  10  05  20  30
DESTIN      74  82  70  81  64 /  20  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   68  89  62  83  57 /  10  10  05  10  30
WAYNESBORO  67  90  64  80  61 /  10  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      68  89  61  80  59 /  10  05  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   70  90  65  86  63 /  20  10  05  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251807 AAE
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
107 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT NEWLY ISSUED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN
INCREASING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA MOVING
EASTWARD. DOWNSTREAM...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED
INSTABILITY LEVELS TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK SR HELICITY AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  89  67  83  63 /  10  10  05  20  40
PENSACOLA   72  87  70  83  66 /  20  10  05  20  30
DESTIN      74  82  70  81  64 /  20  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   68  89  62  83  57 /  10  10  05  10  30
WAYNESBORO  67  90  64  80  61 /  10  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      68  89  61  80  59 /  10  05  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   70  90  65  86  63 /  20  10  05  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 251807 AAE
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
107 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. /13

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT NEWLY ISSUED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN
INCREASING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA MOVING
EASTWARD. DOWNSTREAM...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED
INSTABILITY LEVELS TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK SR HELICITY AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  89  67  83  63 /  10  10  05  20  40
PENSACOLA   72  87  70  83  66 /  20  10  05  20  30
DESTIN      74  82  70  81  64 /  20  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   68  89  62  83  57 /  10  10  05  10  30
WAYNESBORO  67  90  64  80  61 /  10  05  05  20  30
CAMDEN      68  89  61  80  59 /  10  05  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   70  90  65  86  63 /  20  10  05  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 251756 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS CURRENTLY RAIN FREE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY WITH
MIDDLE 60S AS FAR NORTH OF I-20. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 60-70 KNOTS. ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TIME TO
RECOVER AND SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING AN
EASTERLY TRACK AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO
KEEPING THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-20. WITH
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
WIND FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
LOW TO KEEP IN FORECAST PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO REMOVE SEVERE THREAT
FOR AREAS NORTH OF OF I-20.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. ONLY
MENTION IN TAFS WILL BE AT MGM/TOI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF ALL OTHER
TERMINALS AS THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW. ONE THING NOT HELPING
REDEVELOPMENT IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME MVFR STRATOCU AT A FEW SPOTS WHICH FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD GO TO VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE TOI...WHICH IS
LOWER AND MAY STRUGGLE GETTING THERE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES SOUTH TAFS...MGM/TOI DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEW POINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  72  48 /  20  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  73  50 /  20  10  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  82  55  73  52 /  20  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  54 /  20  10  10  10  20
CALERA      65  83  56  74  53 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  57  75  52 /  30  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10  10  10  20
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/08/88




000
FXUS64 KBMX 251756 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS CURRENTLY RAIN FREE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY WITH
MIDDLE 60S AS FAR NORTH OF I-20. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 60-70 KNOTS. ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TIME TO
RECOVER AND SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING AN
EASTERLY TRACK AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO
KEEPING THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-20. WITH
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
WIND FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
LOW TO KEEP IN FORECAST PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO REMOVE SEVERE THREAT
FOR AREAS NORTH OF OF I-20.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. ONLY
MENTION IN TAFS WILL BE AT MGM/TOI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF ALL OTHER
TERMINALS AS THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW. ONE THING NOT HELPING
REDEVELOPMENT IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME MVFR STRATOCU AT A FEW SPOTS WHICH FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD GO TO VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE TOI...WHICH IS
LOWER AND MAY STRUGGLE GETTING THERE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES SOUTH TAFS...MGM/TOI DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEW POINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  72  48 /  20  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  73  50 /  20  10  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  82  55  73  52 /  20  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  54 /  20  10  10  10  20
CALERA      65  83  56  74  53 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  57  75  52 /  30  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10  10  10  20
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/08/88




000
FXUS64 KBMX 251756 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS CURRENTLY RAIN FREE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY WITH
MIDDLE 60S AS FAR NORTH OF I-20. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 60-70 KNOTS. ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TIME TO
RECOVER AND SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING AN
EASTERLY TRACK AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO
KEEPING THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-20. WITH
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
WIND FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
LOW TO KEEP IN FORECAST PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO REMOVE SEVERE THREAT
FOR AREAS NORTH OF OF I-20.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. ONLY
MENTION IN TAFS WILL BE AT MGM/TOI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF ALL OTHER
TERMINALS AS THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW. ONE THING NOT HELPING
REDEVELOPMENT IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME MVFR STRATOCU AT A FEW SPOTS WHICH FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD GO TO VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE TOI...WHICH IS
LOWER AND MAY STRUGGLE GETTING THERE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES SOUTH TAFS...MGM/TOI DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEW POINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  72  48 /  20  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  73  50 /  20  10  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  82  55  73  52 /  20  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  54 /  20  10  10  10  20
CALERA      65  83  56  74  53 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  57  75  52 /  30  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10  10  10  20
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/08/88




000
FXUS64 KBMX 251756 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS CURRENTLY RAIN FREE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY WITH
MIDDLE 60S AS FAR NORTH OF I-20. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 60-70 KNOTS. ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TIME TO
RECOVER AND SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING AN
EASTERLY TRACK AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO
KEEPING THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-20. WITH
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
WIND FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
LOW TO KEEP IN FORECAST PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO REMOVE SEVERE THREAT
FOR AREAS NORTH OF OF I-20.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. ONLY
MENTION IN TAFS WILL BE AT MGM/TOI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF ALL OTHER
TERMINALS AS THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW. ONE THING NOT HELPING
REDEVELOPMENT IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME MVFR STRATOCU AT A FEW SPOTS WHICH FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD GO TO VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE TOI...WHICH IS
LOWER AND MAY STRUGGLE GETTING THERE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES SOUTH TAFS...MGM/TOI DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEW POINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  72  48 /  20  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  73  50 /  20  10  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  82  55  73  52 /  20  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  54 /  20  10  10  10  20
CALERA      65  83  56  74  53 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  57  75  52 /  30  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10  10  10  20
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/08/88




000
FXUS64 KBMX 251756 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS CURRENTLY RAIN FREE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY WITH
MIDDLE 60S AS FAR NORTH OF I-20. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 60-70 KNOTS. ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TIME TO
RECOVER AND SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING AN
EASTERLY TRACK AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO
KEEPING THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-20. WITH
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
WIND FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
LOW TO KEEP IN FORECAST PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO REMOVE SEVERE THREAT
FOR AREAS NORTH OF OF I-20.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. ONLY
MENTION IN TAFS WILL BE AT MGM/TOI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF ALL OTHER
TERMINALS AS THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW. ONE THING NOT HELPING
REDEVELOPMENT IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME MVFR STRATOCU AT A FEW SPOTS WHICH FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD GO TO VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE TOI...WHICH IS
LOWER AND MAY STRUGGLE GETTING THERE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES SOUTH TAFS...MGM/TOI DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEW POINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  72  48 /  20  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  73  50 /  20  10  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  82  55  73  52 /  20  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  54 /  20  10  10  10  20
CALERA      65  83  56  74  53 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  57  75  52 /  30  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10  10  10  20
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/08/88




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
RADAR IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER THE TN VALLEY AFTER A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS AROUND 70
DEGREES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.

THE SHORT WAVE IN KS/MO WILL LIFT NE AS THE STACKED SFC LOW WILL MOVE
SE THROUGH OUT TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SMALL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS NW AL. TO GET
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE FIRST NEED TO ERODE THE CAP
THAT IS IN PLACE. ALSO...THE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
HELP REDUCE THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR ~60KTS SO
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE QUICKLY...BUT SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WILL NEED ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE THE LIFT
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT
DEVELOPS...TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING SINCE THERE IS
NO LINGERING RAIN AND THE CAP IS HOLDING BUT DID NOT TAKING THEM OUT
DUE TO THE SMALL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY. ADJUSTED
WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND FOR THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT OF WIND THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
RADAR IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER THE TN VALLEY AFTER A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS AROUND 70
DEGREES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.

THE SHORT WAVE IN KS/MO WILL LIFT NE AS THE STACKED SFC LOW WILL MOVE
SE THROUGH OUT TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SMALL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS NW AL. TO GET
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE FIRST NEED TO ERODE THE CAP
THAT IS IN PLACE. ALSO...THE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
HELP REDUCE THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR ~60KTS SO
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE QUICKLY...BUT SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WILL NEED ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE THE LIFT
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT
DEVELOPS...TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING SINCE THERE IS
NO LINGERING RAIN AND THE CAP IS HOLDING BUT DID NOT TAKING THEM OUT
DUE TO THE SMALL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY. ADJUSTED
WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND FOR THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT OF WIND THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
RADAR IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER THE TN VALLEY AFTER A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS AROUND 70
DEGREES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.

THE SHORT WAVE IN KS/MO WILL LIFT NE AS THE STACKED SFC LOW WILL MOVE
SE THROUGH OUT TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SMALL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS NW AL. TO GET
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE FIRST NEED TO ERODE THE CAP
THAT IS IN PLACE. ALSO...THE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
HELP REDUCE THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR ~60KTS SO
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE QUICKLY...BUT SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WILL NEED ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE THE LIFT
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT
DEVELOPS...TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING SINCE THERE IS
NO LINGERING RAIN AND THE CAP IS HOLDING BUT DID NOT TAKING THEM OUT
DUE TO THE SMALL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY. ADJUSTED
WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND FOR THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT OF WIND THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
RADAR IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER THE TN VALLEY AFTER A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS AROUND 70
DEGREES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.

THE SHORT WAVE IN KS/MO WILL LIFT NE AS THE STACKED SFC LOW WILL MOVE
SE THROUGH OUT TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SMALL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS NW AL. TO GET
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE FIRST NEED TO ERODE THE CAP
THAT IS IN PLACE. ALSO...THE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
HELP REDUCE THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR ~60KTS SO
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE QUICKLY...BUT SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WILL NEED ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE THE LIFT
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT
DEVELOPS...TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING SINCE THERE IS
NO LINGERING RAIN AND THE CAP IS HOLDING BUT DID NOT TAKING THEM OUT
DUE TO THE SMALL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY. ADJUSTED
WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND FOR THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT OF WIND THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
RADAR IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER THE TN VALLEY AFTER A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS AROUND 70
DEGREES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.

THE SHORT WAVE IN KS/MO WILL LIFT NE AS THE STACKED SFC LOW WILL MOVE
SE THROUGH OUT TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SMALL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS NW AL. TO GET
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE FIRST NEED TO ERODE THE CAP
THAT IS IN PLACE. ALSO...THE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
HELP REDUCE THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR ~60KTS SO
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE QUICKLY...BUT SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WILL NEED ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE THE LIFT
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT
DEVELOPS...TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING SINCE THERE IS
NO LINGERING RAIN AND THE CAP IS HOLDING BUT DID NOT TAKING THEM OUT
DUE TO THE SMALL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY. ADJUSTED
WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND FOR THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT OF WIND THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
RADAR IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER THE TN VALLEY AFTER A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS AROUND 70
DEGREES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.

THE SHORT WAVE IN KS/MO WILL LIFT NE AS THE STACKED SFC LOW WILL MOVE
SE THROUGH OUT TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SMALL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS NW AL. TO GET
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE FIRST NEED TO ERODE THE CAP
THAT IS IN PLACE. ALSO...THE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
HELP REDUCE THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR ~60KTS SO
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE QUICKLY...BUT SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WILL NEED ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE THE LIFT
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT
DEVELOPS...TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING SINCE THERE IS
NO LINGERING RAIN AND THE CAP IS HOLDING BUT DID NOT TAKING THEM OUT
DUE TO THE SMALL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY. ADJUSTED
WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND FOR THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT OF WIND THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. THERE IS A
CHANGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BY
SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251622 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1122 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER THE TN VALLEY AFTER A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS AROUND 70
DEGREES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.

THE SHORT WAVE IN KS/MO WILL LIFT NE AS THE STACKED SFC LOW WILL MOVE
SE THROUGH OUT TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SMALL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS NW AL. TO GET
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE FIRST NEED TO ERODE THE CAP
THAT IS IN PLACE. ALSO...THE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
HELP REDUCE THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR ~60KTS SO
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE QUICKLY...BUT SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WILL NEED ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE THE LIFT
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT
DEVELOPS...TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING SINCE THERE IS
NO LINGERING RAIN AND THE CAP IS HOLDING BUT DID NOT TAKING THEM OUT
DUE TO THE SMALL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY. ADJUSTED
WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND FOR THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT OF WIND THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO GA. CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AS OF
1130Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SWWLY TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 22KTS POSSIBLE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CAP WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BETWEEN 18-20Z THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP AND
ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STORMS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND HAVE KEPT VCTS WORDING IN THE TAF FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251622 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1122 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER THE TN VALLEY AFTER A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS AROUND 70
DEGREES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.

THE SHORT WAVE IN KS/MO WILL LIFT NE AS THE STACKED SFC LOW WILL MOVE
SE THROUGH OUT TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SMALL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS NW AL. TO GET
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE FIRST NEED TO ERODE THE CAP
THAT IS IN PLACE. ALSO...THE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
HELP REDUCE THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR ~60KTS SO
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE QUICKLY...BUT SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WILL NEED ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE THE LIFT
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT
DEVELOPS...TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING SINCE THERE IS
NO LINGERING RAIN AND THE CAP IS HOLDING BUT DID NOT TAKING THEM OUT
DUE TO THE SMALL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY. ADJUSTED
WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND FOR THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT OF WIND THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO GA. CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AS OF
1130Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SWWLY TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 22KTS POSSIBLE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CAP WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BETWEEN 18-20Z THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP AND
ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STORMS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND HAVE KEPT VCTS WORDING IN THE TAF FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251622 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1122 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER THE TN VALLEY AFTER A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS AROUND 70
DEGREES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.

THE SHORT WAVE IN KS/MO WILL LIFT NE AS THE STACKED SFC LOW WILL MOVE
SE THROUGH OUT TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SMALL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS NW AL. TO GET
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE FIRST NEED TO ERODE THE CAP
THAT IS IN PLACE. ALSO...THE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
HELP REDUCE THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR ~60KTS SO
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE QUICKLY...BUT SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WILL NEED ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE THE LIFT
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT
DEVELOPS...TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING SINCE THERE IS
NO LINGERING RAIN AND THE CAP IS HOLDING BUT DID NOT TAKING THEM OUT
DUE TO THE SMALL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY. ADJUSTED
WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND FOR THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT OF WIND THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO GA. CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AS OF
1130Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SWWLY TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 22KTS POSSIBLE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CAP WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BETWEEN 18-20Z THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP AND
ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STORMS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND HAVE KEPT VCTS WORDING IN THE TAF FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251622 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1122 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER THE TN VALLEY AFTER A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS AROUND 70
DEGREES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.

THE SHORT WAVE IN KS/MO WILL LIFT NE AS THE STACKED SFC LOW WILL MOVE
SE THROUGH OUT TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SMALL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS NW AL. TO GET
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE FIRST NEED TO ERODE THE CAP
THAT IS IN PLACE. ALSO...THE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
HELP REDUCE THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR ~60KTS SO
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE QUICKLY...BUT SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WILL NEED ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE THE LIFT
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT
DEVELOPS...TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING SINCE THERE IS
NO LINGERING RAIN AND THE CAP IS HOLDING BUT DID NOT TAKING THEM OUT
DUE TO THE SMALL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY. ADJUSTED
WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND FOR THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT OF WIND THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO GA. CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AS OF
1130Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SWWLY TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 22KTS POSSIBLE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CAP WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BETWEEN 18-20Z THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP AND
ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STORMS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND HAVE KEPT VCTS WORDING IN THE TAF FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251622 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1122 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER THE TN VALLEY AFTER A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS AROUND 70
DEGREES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.

THE SHORT WAVE IN KS/MO WILL LIFT NE AS THE STACKED SFC LOW WILL MOVE
SE THROUGH OUT TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SMALL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS NW AL. TO GET
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE FIRST NEED TO ERODE THE CAP
THAT IS IN PLACE. ALSO...THE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
HELP REDUCE THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR ~60KTS SO
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE QUICKLY...BUT SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WILL NEED ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE THE LIFT
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT
DEVELOPS...TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING SINCE THERE IS
NO LINGERING RAIN AND THE CAP IS HOLDING BUT DID NOT TAKING THEM OUT
DUE TO THE SMALL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY. ADJUSTED
WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND FOR THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT OF WIND THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO GA. CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AS OF
1130Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SWWLY TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 22KTS POSSIBLE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CAP WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BETWEEN 18-20Z THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP AND
ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STORMS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND HAVE KEPT VCTS WORDING IN THE TAF FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251615 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT NEWLY ISSUED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN
INCREASING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA MOVING
EASTWARD. DOWNSTREAM...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED
INSTABILITY LEVELS TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK SR HELICITY AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION... 12Z ISSUANCE...CURRENTLY...THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH TWO LINES OF TSRA MOVING EAST OVER THEM.
GENERALLY LOW END MVFR LEVEL CIGS WILL SEE DROPS WELL INTO IFR LEVELS
AS THESE LINES PASS. THE REST OF THE AREA...AND THESE AREAS AFTER
THE LINES MOVE OUT...WILL SEE A BREAK...WITH MORE TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SETTLING AS THEY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...IFR LEVEL CIGS IN POST SYSTEM STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED.

/16

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  70  89  67  83 /  70  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   83  72  87  70  83 /  70  20  10  05  20
DESTIN      80  74  82  70  81 /  60  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  68  89  62  83 /  70  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  85  67  90  64  80 /  70  10  05  05  20
CAMDEN      84  68  89  61  80 /  70  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   84  70  90  65  86 /  70  20  10  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251615 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT NEWLY ISSUED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN
INCREASING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA MOVING
EASTWARD. DOWNSTREAM...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED
INSTABILITY LEVELS TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK SR HELICITY AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION... 12Z ISSUANCE...CURRENTLY...THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH TWO LINES OF TSRA MOVING EAST OVER THEM.
GENERALLY LOW END MVFR LEVEL CIGS WILL SEE DROPS WELL INTO IFR LEVELS
AS THESE LINES PASS. THE REST OF THE AREA...AND THESE AREAS AFTER
THE LINES MOVE OUT...WILL SEE A BREAK...WITH MORE TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SETTLING AS THEY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...IFR LEVEL CIGS IN POST SYSTEM STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED.

/16

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  70  89  67  83 /  70  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   83  72  87  70  83 /  70  20  10  05  20
DESTIN      80  74  82  70  81 /  60  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  68  89  62  83 /  70  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  85  67  90  64  80 /  70  10  05  05  20
CAMDEN      84  68  89  61  80 /  70  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   84  70  90  65  86 /  70  20  10  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 251615 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT NEWLY ISSUED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN
INCREASING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA MOVING
EASTWARD. DOWNSTREAM...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED
INSTABILITY LEVELS TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK SR HELICITY AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION... 12Z ISSUANCE...CURRENTLY...THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH TWO LINES OF TSRA MOVING EAST OVER THEM.
GENERALLY LOW END MVFR LEVEL CIGS WILL SEE DROPS WELL INTO IFR LEVELS
AS THESE LINES PASS. THE REST OF THE AREA...AND THESE AREAS AFTER
THE LINES MOVE OUT...WILL SEE A BREAK...WITH MORE TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SETTLING AS THEY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...IFR LEVEL CIGS IN POST SYSTEM STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED.

/16

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  70  89  67  83 /  70  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   83  72  87  70  83 /  70  20  10  05  20
DESTIN      80  74  82  70  81 /  60  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  68  89  62  83 /  70  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  85  67  90  64  80 /  70  10  05  05  20
CAMDEN      84  68  89  61  80 /  70  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   84  70  90  65  86 /  70  20  10  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251615 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT NEWLY ISSUED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN
INCREASING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA MOVING
EASTWARD. DOWNSTREAM...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED
INSTABILITY LEVELS TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK SR HELICITY AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION... 12Z ISSUANCE...CURRENTLY...THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH TWO LINES OF TSRA MOVING EAST OVER THEM.
GENERALLY LOW END MVFR LEVEL CIGS WILL SEE DROPS WELL INTO IFR LEVELS
AS THESE LINES PASS. THE REST OF THE AREA...AND THESE AREAS AFTER
THE LINES MOVE OUT...WILL SEE A BREAK...WITH MORE TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SETTLING AS THEY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...IFR LEVEL CIGS IN POST SYSTEM STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED.

/16

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  70  89  67  83 /  70  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   83  72  87  70  83 /  70  20  10  05  20
DESTIN      80  74  82  70  81 /  60  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  68  89  62  83 /  70  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  85  67  90  64  80 /  70  10  05  05  20
CAMDEN      84  68  89  61  80 /  70  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   84  70  90  65  86 /  70  20  10  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 251554
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1054 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS CURRENTLY RAIN FREE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY WITH
MIDDLE 60S AS FAR NORTH OF I-20. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 60-70 KNOTS. ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TIME TO
RECOVER AND SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING AN
EASTERLY TRACK AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO
KEEPING THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-20. WITH
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
WIND FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
LOW TO KEEP IN FORECAST PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO REMOVE SEVERE THREAT
FOR AREAS NORTH OF OF I-20.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AT 12Z...FIRST WAVE OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EAST AL AND
KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH 1430Z. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LINGERING MVFR
CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIKE KANB AND KASN. BY
14Z...SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY...ALONG WITH
SLOWING BREAKS IN CLOUDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO MIXING AND CIGS RISING
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z.  WITH MAIN FRONT STILL FAR TO THE
WEST...AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z.  HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO PINPOINT AT ANY TAF SITE OTHER
THAN VCTS. STEFKOVICH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     79  62  79  51  72 /  20  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    81  64  81  54  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  20  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
CALERA      82  65  83  56  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  40  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  84  67  87  60  78 /  50  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 251554
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1054 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS CURRENTLY RAIN FREE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY WITH
MIDDLE 60S AS FAR NORTH OF I-20. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 60-70 KNOTS. ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TIME TO
RECOVER AND SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING AN
EASTERLY TRACK AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO
KEEPING THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-20. WITH
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
WIND FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
LOW TO KEEP IN FORECAST PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO REMOVE SEVERE THREAT
FOR AREAS NORTH OF OF I-20.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AT 12Z...FIRST WAVE OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EAST AL AND
KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH 1430Z. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LINGERING MVFR
CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIKE KANB AND KASN. BY
14Z...SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY...ALONG WITH
SLOWING BREAKS IN CLOUDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO MIXING AND CIGS RISING
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z.  WITH MAIN FRONT STILL FAR TO THE
WEST...AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z.  HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO PINPOINT AT ANY TAF SITE OTHER
THAN VCTS. STEFKOVICH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     79  62  79  51  72 /  20  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    81  64  81  54  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  20  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
CALERA      82  65  83  56  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  40  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  84  67  87  60  78 /  50  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 251554
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1054 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS CURRENTLY RAIN FREE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY WITH
MIDDLE 60S AS FAR NORTH OF I-20. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 60-70 KNOTS. ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TIME TO
RECOVER AND SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING AN
EASTERLY TRACK AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO
KEEPING THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-20. WITH
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
WIND FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
LOW TO KEEP IN FORECAST PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO REMOVE SEVERE THREAT
FOR AREAS NORTH OF OF I-20.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AT 12Z...FIRST WAVE OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EAST AL AND
KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH 1430Z. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LINGERING MVFR
CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIKE KANB AND KASN. BY
14Z...SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY...ALONG WITH
SLOWING BREAKS IN CLOUDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO MIXING AND CIGS RISING
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z.  WITH MAIN FRONT STILL FAR TO THE
WEST...AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z.  HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO PINPOINT AT ANY TAF SITE OTHER
THAN VCTS. STEFKOVICH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     79  62  79  51  72 /  20  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    81  64  81  54  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  20  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
CALERA      82  65  83  56  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  40  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  84  67  87  60  78 /  50  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 251554
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1054 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS CURRENTLY RAIN FREE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY WITH
MIDDLE 60S AS FAR NORTH OF I-20. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 60-70 KNOTS. ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TIME TO
RECOVER AND SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING AN
EASTERLY TRACK AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO
KEEPING THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-20. WITH
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
WIND FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
LOW TO KEEP IN FORECAST PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO REMOVE SEVERE THREAT
FOR AREAS NORTH OF OF I-20.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AT 12Z...FIRST WAVE OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EAST AL AND
KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH 1430Z. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LINGERING MVFR
CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIKE KANB AND KASN. BY
14Z...SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY...ALONG WITH
SLOWING BREAKS IN CLOUDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO MIXING AND CIGS RISING
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z.  WITH MAIN FRONT STILL FAR TO THE
WEST...AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z.  HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO PINPOINT AT ANY TAF SITE OTHER
THAN VCTS. STEFKOVICH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     79  62  79  51  72 /  20  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    81  64  81  54  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  20  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
CALERA      82  65  83  56  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  40  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  84  67  87  60  78 /  50  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251440 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
940 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO CANCEL TORNADO WATCH 108
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION... 12Z ISSUANCE...CURRENTLY...THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH TWO LINES OF TSRA MOVING EAST OVER THEM.
GENERALLY LOW END MVFR LEVEL CIGS WILL SEE DROPS WELL INTO IFR LEVELS
AS THESE LINES PASS. THE REST OF THE AREA...AND THESE AREAS AFTER
THE LINES MOVE OUT...WILL SEE A BREAK...WITH MORE TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SETTLING AS THEY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...IFR LEVEL CIGS IN POST SYSTEM STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED.

/16

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  70  89  67  83 /  40  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   83  72  87  70  83 /  50  20  10  05  20
DESTIN      80  74  82  70  81 /  50  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  68  89  62  83 /  50  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  85  67  90  64  80 /  40  10  05  05  20
CAMDEN      84  68  89  61  80 /  50  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   84  70  90  65  86 /  50  20  10  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251440 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
940 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO CANCEL TORNADO WATCH 108
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION... 12Z ISSUANCE...CURRENTLY...THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH TWO LINES OF TSRA MOVING EAST OVER THEM.
GENERALLY LOW END MVFR LEVEL CIGS WILL SEE DROPS WELL INTO IFR LEVELS
AS THESE LINES PASS. THE REST OF THE AREA...AND THESE AREAS AFTER
THE LINES MOVE OUT...WILL SEE A BREAK...WITH MORE TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SETTLING AS THEY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...IFR LEVEL CIGS IN POST SYSTEM STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED.

/16

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  70  89  67  83 /  40  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   83  72  87  70  83 /  50  20  10  05  20
DESTIN      80  74  82  70  81 /  50  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  68  89  62  83 /  50  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  85  67  90  64  80 /  40  10  05  05  20
CAMDEN      84  68  89  61  80 /  50  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   84  70  90  65  86 /  50  20  10  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251440 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
940 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO CANCEL TORNADO WATCH 108
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION... 12Z ISSUANCE...CURRENTLY...THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH TWO LINES OF TSRA MOVING EAST OVER THEM.
GENERALLY LOW END MVFR LEVEL CIGS WILL SEE DROPS WELL INTO IFR LEVELS
AS THESE LINES PASS. THE REST OF THE AREA...AND THESE AREAS AFTER
THE LINES MOVE OUT...WILL SEE A BREAK...WITH MORE TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SETTLING AS THEY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...IFR LEVEL CIGS IN POST SYSTEM STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED.

/16

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  70  89  67  83 /  40  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   83  72  87  70  83 /  50  20  10  05  20
DESTIN      80  74  82  70  81 /  50  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  68  89  62  83 /  50  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  85  67  90  64  80 /  40  10  05  05  20
CAMDEN      84  68  89  61  80 /  50  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   84  70  90  65  86 /  50  20  10  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251440 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
940 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO CANCEL TORNADO WATCH 108
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION... 12Z ISSUANCE...CURRENTLY...THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH TWO LINES OF TSRA MOVING EAST OVER THEM.
GENERALLY LOW END MVFR LEVEL CIGS WILL SEE DROPS WELL INTO IFR LEVELS
AS THESE LINES PASS. THE REST OF THE AREA...AND THESE AREAS AFTER
THE LINES MOVE OUT...WILL SEE A BREAK...WITH MORE TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SETTLING AS THEY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...IFR LEVEL CIGS IN POST SYSTEM STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED.

/16

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  70  89  67  83 /  40  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   83  72  87  70  83 /  50  20  10  05  20
DESTIN      80  74  82  70  81 /  50  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  68  89  62  83 /  50  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  85  67  90  64  80 /  40  10  05  05  20
CAMDEN      84  68  89  61  80 /  50  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   84  70  90  65  86 /  50  20  10  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 251158
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE... AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&


.DISCUSSION...

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AT 12Z...FIRST WAVE OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EAST AL AND
KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH 1430Z. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LINGERING MVFR
CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIKE KANB AND KASN. BY
14Z...SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY...ALONG WITH
SLOWING BREAKS IN CLOUDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO MIXING AND CIGS RISING
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z.  WITH MAIN FRONT STILL FAR TO THE
WEST...AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z.  HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO PINPOINT AT ANY TAF SITE OTHER
THAN VCTS. STEFKOVICH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  62  79  51  72 /  90  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    79  64  81  54  73 /  90  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  90  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  60  10  10  10  10
CALERA      81  65  83  56  74 /  80  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  90  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  83  67  87  60  78 /  80  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 251158
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE... AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&


.DISCUSSION...

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AT 12Z...FIRST WAVE OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EAST AL AND
KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH 1430Z. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LINGERING MVFR
CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIKE KANB AND KASN. BY
14Z...SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY...ALONG WITH
SLOWING BREAKS IN CLOUDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO MIXING AND CIGS RISING
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z.  WITH MAIN FRONT STILL FAR TO THE
WEST...AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z.  HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO PINPOINT AT ANY TAF SITE OTHER
THAN VCTS. STEFKOVICH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  62  79  51  72 /  90  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    79  64  81  54  73 /  90  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  90  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  60  10  10  10  10
CALERA      81  65  83  56  74 /  80  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  90  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  83  67  87  60  78 /  80  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 251158
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE... AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&


.DISCUSSION...

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AT 12Z...FIRST WAVE OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EAST AL AND
KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH 1430Z. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LINGERING MVFR
CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIKE KANB AND KASN. BY
14Z...SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY...ALONG WITH
SLOWING BREAKS IN CLOUDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO MIXING AND CIGS RISING
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z.  WITH MAIN FRONT STILL FAR TO THE
WEST...AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z.  HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO PINPOINT AT ANY TAF SITE OTHER
THAN VCTS. STEFKOVICH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  62  79  51  72 /  90  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    79  64  81  54  73 /  90  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  90  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  60  10  10  10  10
CALERA      81  65  83  56  74 /  80  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  90  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  83  67  87  60  78 /  80  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 251158
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE... AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&


.DISCUSSION...

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AT 12Z...FIRST WAVE OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EAST AL AND
KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH 1430Z. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LINGERING MVFR
CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIKE KANB AND KASN. BY
14Z...SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY...ALONG WITH
SLOWING BREAKS IN CLOUDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO MIXING AND CIGS RISING
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z.  WITH MAIN FRONT STILL FAR TO THE
WEST...AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z.  HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO PINPOINT AT ANY TAF SITE OTHER
THAN VCTS. STEFKOVICH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  62  79  51  72 /  90  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    79  64  81  54  73 /  90  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  90  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  60  10  10  10  10
CALERA      81  65  83  56  74 /  80  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  90  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  83  67  87  60  78 /  80  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251132
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON A
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. A PRECEDING VORT MAX HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE REMAINING ALONG THE TRACK OF AN INTENSE/LONG-LIVED
QLCS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
MODELED REASONABLY WELL TO SHEAR APART AS IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NE KANSAS/NW MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO
THIS CYCLONE WILL PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 10-14Z...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND DEWPOINTS
RAPIDLY RISING INTO THE M60S-AROUND 70. ALTHOUGH BULK OF EARLY
MORNING RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z...WILL CARRY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MORNING POPS IN SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
RADAR DATA. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY EXITS THE REGION...WE EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS RAINFALL. AS
LOWER CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER LATE THIS MORNING...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE U70S/L80S AND THIS -- ALONG
WITH NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- WILL ERODE THE
CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...A FOCUSED SOURCE OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD AND
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH-IMPACT CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID...VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS NOTED IN STREAMLINES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAKENING DRYLINE DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION...AND THIS ALONG WITH A GLANCING
INFLUENCE FROM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS. ASSUMING A FEW STORMS INDEED DEVELOP...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS DEPICT A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BUT STRENGTHENING SPEED
SHEAR AS MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS. VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND ORIENTATION OF CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS/ AND SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS /UP TO 70-80 MPH/.
ALTHOUGH NON-ZERO...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE
COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN FOR POINTS TO THE NORTH...AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/VEER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND
ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER DUSK AS THEY SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AN MCS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION --
WITH THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH
REMNANTS OF PARENT MID-LEVEL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY IMPACT EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN AND WESTERN VA...WILL
LEAVE A LOW POP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE ZONES BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE INFLUENCES FROM THE MCS. OTHERWISE...AN INITIAL
SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z SUNDAY WITH TRUE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT IN TENNESSEE...WHERE MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
U30S/L40S.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC VORT MAX --
CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA -- IS FORECAST
TO AMPLIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OZARKS BY TUESDAY...WITH
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THIS
OCCURS. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY...WITH THIS CYCLONE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING A ROUND OF COOL SECTOR
RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN INVADE THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO GA. CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AS OF
1130Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SWWLY TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 22KTS POSSIBLE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CAP WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BETWEEN 18-20Z THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP AND
ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STORMS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND HAVE KEPT VCTS WORDING IN THE TAF FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251132
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON A
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. A PRECEDING VORT MAX HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE REMAINING ALONG THE TRACK OF AN INTENSE/LONG-LIVED
QLCS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
MODELED REASONABLY WELL TO SHEAR APART AS IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NE KANSAS/NW MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO
THIS CYCLONE WILL PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 10-14Z...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND DEWPOINTS
RAPIDLY RISING INTO THE M60S-AROUND 70. ALTHOUGH BULK OF EARLY
MORNING RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z...WILL CARRY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MORNING POPS IN SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
RADAR DATA. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY EXITS THE REGION...WE EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS RAINFALL. AS
LOWER CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER LATE THIS MORNING...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE U70S/L80S AND THIS -- ALONG
WITH NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- WILL ERODE THE
CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...A FOCUSED SOURCE OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD AND
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH-IMPACT CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID...VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS NOTED IN STREAMLINES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAKENING DRYLINE DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION...AND THIS ALONG WITH A GLANCING
INFLUENCE FROM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS. ASSUMING A FEW STORMS INDEED DEVELOP...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS DEPICT A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BUT STRENGTHENING SPEED
SHEAR AS MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS. VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND ORIENTATION OF CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS/ AND SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS /UP TO 70-80 MPH/.
ALTHOUGH NON-ZERO...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE
COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN FOR POINTS TO THE NORTH...AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/VEER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND
ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER DUSK AS THEY SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AN MCS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION --
WITH THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH
REMNANTS OF PARENT MID-LEVEL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY IMPACT EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN AND WESTERN VA...WILL
LEAVE A LOW POP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE ZONES BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE INFLUENCES FROM THE MCS. OTHERWISE...AN INITIAL
SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z SUNDAY WITH TRUE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT IN TENNESSEE...WHERE MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
U30S/L40S.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC VORT MAX --
CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA -- IS FORECAST
TO AMPLIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OZARKS BY TUESDAY...WITH
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THIS
OCCURS. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY...WITH THIS CYCLONE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING A ROUND OF COOL SECTOR
RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN INVADE THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO GA. CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AS OF
1130Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SWWLY TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 22KTS POSSIBLE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CAP WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BETWEEN 18-20Z THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP AND
ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STORMS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND HAVE KEPT VCTS WORDING IN THE TAF FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251131 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION... 12Z ISSUANCE...CURRENTLY...THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH TWO LINES OF TSRA MOVING EAST OVER THEM.
GENERALLY LOW END MVFR LEVEL CIGS WILL SEE DROPS WELL INTO IFR LEVELS
AS THESE LINES PASS. THE REST OF THE AREA...AND THESE AREAS AFTER
THE LINES MOVE OUT...WILL SEE A BREAK...WITH MORE TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SETTLING AS THEY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...IFR LEVEL CIGS IN POST SYSTEM STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED.

/16
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  70  89  67  83 /  50  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   83  72  87  70  83 /  50  20  10  05  20
DESTIN      80  74  82  70  81 /  50  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  68  89  62  83 /  60  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  85  67  90  64  80 /  40  10  05  05  20
CAMDEN      84  68  89  61  80 /  60  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   84  70  90  65  86 /  50  20  10  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/16



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251047
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON A
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. A PRECEDING VORT MAX HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE REMAINING ALONG THE TRACK OF AN INTENSE/LONG-LIVED
QLCS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
MODELED REASONABLY WELL TO SHEAR APART AS IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NE KANSAS/NW MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO
THIS CYCLONE WILL PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 10-14Z...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND DEWPOINTS
RAPIDLY RISING INTO THE M60S-AROUND 70. ALTHOUGH BULK OF EARLY
MORNING RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z...WILL CARRY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MORNING POPS IN SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
RADAR DATA. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY EXITS THE REGION...WE EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS RAINFALL. AS
LOWER CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER LATE THIS MORNING...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE U70S/L80S AND THIS -- ALONG
WITH NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- WILL ERODE THE
CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...A FOCUSED SOURCE OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD AND
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH-IMPACT CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID...VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS NOTED IN STREAMLINES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAKENING DRYLINE DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION...AND THIS ALONG WITH A GLANCING
INFLUENCE FROM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS. ASSUMING A FEW STORMS INDEED DEVELOP...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS DEPICT A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BUT STRENGTHENING SPEED
SHEAR AS MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS. VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND ORIENTATION OF CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS/ AND SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS /UP TO 70-80 MPH/.
ALTHOUGH NON-ZERO...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE
COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN FOR POINTS TO THE NORTH...AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/VEER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND
ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER DUSK AS THEY SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AN MCS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION --
WITH THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH
REMNANTS OF PARENT MID-LEVEL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY IMPACT EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN AND WESTERN VA...WILL
LEAVE A LOW POP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE ZONES BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE INFLUENCES FROM THE MCS. OTHERWISE...AN INITIAL
SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z SUNDAY WITH TRUE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT IN TENNESSEE...WHERE MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
U30S/L40S.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC VORT MAX --
CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA -- IS FORECAST
TO AMPLIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OZARKS BY TUESDAY...WITH
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THIS
OCCURS. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY...WITH THIS CYCLONE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING A ROUND OF COOL SECTOR
RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN INVADE THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. AS OF 06Z...ONLY RAIN
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT WILL CONTINUE VCTS BECAUSE THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS LOOKS TO BE
9-14Z WITH VRB WIND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND CHANGES IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THUNDERSTORMS AND OVC
CIGS WITH SCATTERED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 16/17Z. THESE
WILL BE VERY SCATTERED SO CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME.
CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO 4-5KFT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT FOR
TIMING CHANGES IN THE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CIGS.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    82  62  77  50 /  30  20  10  10
SHOALS        84  62  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
VINEMONT      81  61  78  50 /  40  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  80  58  73  46 /  30  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   79  61  77  49 /  50  30  10  10
FORT PAYNE    80  57  76  47 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251047
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON A
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. A PRECEDING VORT MAX HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE REMAINING ALONG THE TRACK OF AN INTENSE/LONG-LIVED
QLCS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
MODELED REASONABLY WELL TO SHEAR APART AS IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NE KANSAS/NW MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO
THIS CYCLONE WILL PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 10-14Z...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND DEWPOINTS
RAPIDLY RISING INTO THE M60S-AROUND 70. ALTHOUGH BULK OF EARLY
MORNING RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z...WILL CARRY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MORNING POPS IN SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
RADAR DATA. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY EXITS THE REGION...WE EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS RAINFALL. AS
LOWER CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER LATE THIS MORNING...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE U70S/L80S AND THIS -- ALONG
WITH NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- WILL ERODE THE
CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...A FOCUSED SOURCE OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD AND
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH-IMPACT CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID...VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS NOTED IN STREAMLINES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAKENING DRYLINE DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION...AND THIS ALONG WITH A GLANCING
INFLUENCE FROM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS. ASSUMING A FEW STORMS INDEED DEVELOP...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS DEPICT A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BUT STRENGTHENING SPEED
SHEAR AS MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS. VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND ORIENTATION OF CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS/ AND SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS /UP TO 70-80 MPH/.
ALTHOUGH NON-ZERO...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE
COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN FOR POINTS TO THE NORTH...AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/VEER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND
ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER DUSK AS THEY SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AN MCS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION --
WITH THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH
REMNANTS OF PARENT MID-LEVEL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY IMPACT EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN AND WESTERN VA...WILL
LEAVE A LOW POP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE ZONES BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE INFLUENCES FROM THE MCS. OTHERWISE...AN INITIAL
SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z SUNDAY WITH TRUE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT IN TENNESSEE...WHERE MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
U30S/L40S.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC VORT MAX --
CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA -- IS FORECAST
TO AMPLIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OZARKS BY TUESDAY...WITH
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THIS
OCCURS. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY...WITH THIS CYCLONE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING A ROUND OF COOL SECTOR
RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN INVADE THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. AS OF 06Z...ONLY RAIN
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT WILL CONTINUE VCTS BECAUSE THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS LOOKS TO BE
9-14Z WITH VRB WIND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND CHANGES IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THUNDERSTORMS AND OVC
CIGS WITH SCATTERED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 16/17Z. THESE
WILL BE VERY SCATTERED SO CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME.
CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO 4-5KFT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT FOR
TIMING CHANGES IN THE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CIGS.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    82  62  77  50 /  30  20  10  10
SHOALS        84  62  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
VINEMONT      81  61  78  50 /  40  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  80  58  73  46 /  30  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   79  61  77  49 /  50  30  10  10
FORT PAYNE    80  57  76  47 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251047
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON A
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. A PRECEDING VORT MAX HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE REMAINING ALONG THE TRACK OF AN INTENSE/LONG-LIVED
QLCS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
MODELED REASONABLY WELL TO SHEAR APART AS IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NE KANSAS/NW MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO
THIS CYCLONE WILL PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 10-14Z...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND DEWPOINTS
RAPIDLY RISING INTO THE M60S-AROUND 70. ALTHOUGH BULK OF EARLY
MORNING RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z...WILL CARRY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MORNING POPS IN SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
RADAR DATA. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY EXITS THE REGION...WE EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS RAINFALL. AS
LOWER CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER LATE THIS MORNING...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE U70S/L80S AND THIS -- ALONG
WITH NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- WILL ERODE THE
CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...A FOCUSED SOURCE OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD AND
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH-IMPACT CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID...VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS NOTED IN STREAMLINES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAKENING DRYLINE DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION...AND THIS ALONG WITH A GLANCING
INFLUENCE FROM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS. ASSUMING A FEW STORMS INDEED DEVELOP...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS DEPICT A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BUT STRENGTHENING SPEED
SHEAR AS MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS. VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND ORIENTATION OF CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS/ AND SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS /UP TO 70-80 MPH/.
ALTHOUGH NON-ZERO...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE
COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN FOR POINTS TO THE NORTH...AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/VEER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND
ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER DUSK AS THEY SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AN MCS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION --
WITH THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH
REMNANTS OF PARENT MID-LEVEL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY IMPACT EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN AND WESTERN VA...WILL
LEAVE A LOW POP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE ZONES BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE INFLUENCES FROM THE MCS. OTHERWISE...AN INITIAL
SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z SUNDAY WITH TRUE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT IN TENNESSEE...WHERE MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
U30S/L40S.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC VORT MAX --
CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA -- IS FORECAST
TO AMPLIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OZARKS BY TUESDAY...WITH
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THIS
OCCURS. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY...WITH THIS CYCLONE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING A ROUND OF COOL SECTOR
RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN INVADE THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. AS OF 06Z...ONLY RAIN
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT WILL CONTINUE VCTS BECAUSE THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS LOOKS TO BE
9-14Z WITH VRB WIND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND CHANGES IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THUNDERSTORMS AND OVC
CIGS WITH SCATTERED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 16/17Z. THESE
WILL BE VERY SCATTERED SO CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME.
CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO 4-5KFT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT FOR
TIMING CHANGES IN THE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CIGS.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    82  62  77  50 /  30  20  10  10
SHOALS        84  62  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
VINEMONT      81  61  78  50 /  40  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  80  58  73  46 /  30  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   79  61  77  49 /  50  30  10  10
FORT PAYNE    80  57  76  47 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251047
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON A
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. A PRECEDING VORT MAX HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE REMAINING ALONG THE TRACK OF AN INTENSE/LONG-LIVED
QLCS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
MODELED REASONABLY WELL TO SHEAR APART AS IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NE KANSAS/NW MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO
THIS CYCLONE WILL PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 10-14Z...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND DEWPOINTS
RAPIDLY RISING INTO THE M60S-AROUND 70. ALTHOUGH BULK OF EARLY
MORNING RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z...WILL CARRY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MORNING POPS IN SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
RADAR DATA. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY EXITS THE REGION...WE EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS RAINFALL. AS
LOWER CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER LATE THIS MORNING...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE U70S/L80S AND THIS -- ALONG
WITH NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- WILL ERODE THE
CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...A FOCUSED SOURCE OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD AND
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH-IMPACT CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID...VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS NOTED IN STREAMLINES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAKENING DRYLINE DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION...AND THIS ALONG WITH A GLANCING
INFLUENCE FROM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS. ASSUMING A FEW STORMS INDEED DEVELOP...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS DEPICT A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BUT STRENGTHENING SPEED
SHEAR AS MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS. VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND ORIENTATION OF CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS/ AND SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS /UP TO 70-80 MPH/.
ALTHOUGH NON-ZERO...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE
COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN FOR POINTS TO THE NORTH...AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/VEER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND
ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER DUSK AS THEY SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AN MCS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION --
WITH THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH
REMNANTS OF PARENT MID-LEVEL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY IMPACT EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN AND WESTERN VA...WILL
LEAVE A LOW POP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE ZONES BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE INFLUENCES FROM THE MCS. OTHERWISE...AN INITIAL
SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z SUNDAY WITH TRUE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT IN TENNESSEE...WHERE MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
U30S/L40S.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC VORT MAX --
CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA -- IS FORECAST
TO AMPLIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OZARKS BY TUESDAY...WITH
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THIS
OCCURS. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY...WITH THIS CYCLONE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING A ROUND OF COOL SECTOR
RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN INVADE THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. AS OF 06Z...ONLY RAIN
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT WILL CONTINUE VCTS BECAUSE THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS LOOKS TO BE
9-14Z WITH VRB WIND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND CHANGES IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THUNDERSTORMS AND OVC
CIGS WITH SCATTERED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 16/17Z. THESE
WILL BE VERY SCATTERED SO CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME.
CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO 4-5KFT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT FOR
TIMING CHANGES IN THE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CIGS.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    82  62  77  50 /  30  20  10  10
SHOALS        84  62  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
VINEMONT      81  61  78  50 /  40  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  80  58  73  46 /  30  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   79  61  77  49 /  50  30  10  10
FORT PAYNE    80  57  76  47 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 251001
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
501 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN ONGOING...HAVE TO BE BRIEF. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TODAY. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND PRETTY GOOD WIND
SHEAR...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THIS ROUND
OF RAIN ENDS...HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...UPPING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WITH BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO SOUTHWEST...WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE...BUT
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA SUNDAY...AND
TO THE COAST BY MONDAY MORN. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING
AGAINST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE RESULT FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING THE FIRST 90S OF THE YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TO NEAR THE COAST...MEETING A TRAILING FRONT LEFT BY
TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WEAK FRONT DOES HELP TO COOL THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA....BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE TX COAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGHTEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL...AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...ALONG WITH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...OPENING AS MORE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES
MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND SEASONAL FOR THIS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FORMER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY AND
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MERGES THEM AND
ORGANIZES ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TAKES IT EAST
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR THE FA IS STRONGER...COOLER
NORTHERLY AIR MOVE OVER THE FA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A PIECE OF
THE UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND FORMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEAKENING THE NORTHERLY PUSH. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GROUP...SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. 50S RETURN TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING A COOL...POST SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW THAT
ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE FA. FORTUNATELY...BOTH ARE
ADVERTISING TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  70  89  67  83 /  50  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   83  72  87  70  83 /  50  20  10  05  20
DESTIN      80  74  82  70  81 /  50  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  68  89  62  83 /  60  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  85  67  90  64  80 /  40  10  05  05  20
CAMDEN      84  68  89  61  80 /  60  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   84  70  90  65  86 /  50  20  10  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/16




000
FXUS64 KBMX 250746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
246 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HAVE TIMED OUT APPROACHING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS...AFFECTING THOSE SITES FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
06Z. AT MGM AND TOI...DO NOT EXPECT THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION
TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY 09Z. THIS FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY CONCERNING REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT EXISTS AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  62  79  51  72 /  90  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    79  64  81  54  73 /  90  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  90  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  60  10  10  10  10
CALERA      81  65  83  56  74 /  80  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  90  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  83  67  87  60  78 /  80  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 250746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
246 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HAVE TIMED OUT APPROACHING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS...AFFECTING THOSE SITES FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
06Z. AT MGM AND TOI...DO NOT EXPECT THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION
TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY 09Z. THIS FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY CONCERNING REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT EXISTS AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  62  79  51  72 /  90  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    79  64  81  54  73 /  90  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  90  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  60  10  10  10  10
CALERA      81  65  83  56  74 /  80  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  90  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  83  67  87  60  78 /  80  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 250746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
246 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HAVE TIMED OUT APPROACHING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS...AFFECTING THOSE SITES FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
06Z. AT MGM AND TOI...DO NOT EXPECT THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION
TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY 09Z. THIS FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY CONCERNING REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT EXISTS AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  62  79  51  72 /  90  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    79  64  81  54  73 /  90  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  90  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  60  10  10  10  10
CALERA      81  65  83  56  74 /  80  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  90  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  83  67  87  60  78 /  80  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 250746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
246 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HAVE TIMED OUT APPROACHING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS...AFFECTING THOSE SITES FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
06Z. AT MGM AND TOI...DO NOT EXPECT THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION
TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY 09Z. THIS FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY CONCERNING REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT EXISTS AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  62  79  51  72 /  90  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    79  64  81  54  73 /  90  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  90  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  60  10  10  10  10
CALERA      81  65  83  56  74 /  80  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  90  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  83  67  87  60  78 /  80  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 250746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
246 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HAVE TIMED OUT APPROACHING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS...AFFECTING THOSE SITES FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
06Z. AT MGM AND TOI...DO NOT EXPECT THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION
TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY 09Z. THIS FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY CONCERNING REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT EXISTS AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  62  79  51  72 /  90  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    79  64  81  54  73 /  90  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  90  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  60  10  10  10  10
CALERA      81  65  83  56  74 /  80  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  90  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  83  67  87  60  78 /  80  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 250746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
246 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HAVE TIMED OUT APPROACHING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS...AFFECTING THOSE SITES FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
06Z. AT MGM AND TOI...DO NOT EXPECT THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION
TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY 09Z. THIS FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY CONCERNING REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT EXISTS AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  62  79  51  72 /  90  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    79  64  81  54  73 /  90  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  90  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  60  10  10  10  10
CALERA      81  65  83  56  74 /  80  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  90  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  83  67  87  60  78 /  80  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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