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000
FXUS64 KMOB 111740 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. INCREASING
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIMISHING WIND SPEEDS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BR AND LOW ST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES
BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 12/0600-0900 UTC. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES TOWARD SUNRISE.
VSBYS/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY. /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...

LATEST SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
ARKLAMISS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE WERE SEEING THIS
TIME YESTERDAY.

AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING MORE
QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  BASED ON THIS...AND THE FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPERATURE GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE HIGHS COULD EASILY REACH THE MIDDLE 70S
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BETWEEN US-84 AND IH-65.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE FORTHCOMING.  /BUTTS/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROF
REMAINS NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE ARKLATEX ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
EVOLVES INTO MORE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROF IN THE
PROCESS.  A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE MID 40S INLAND.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE TROF OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AS WELL AT
LEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE LIKEWISE MUCH WARMER IN
COMPARISON TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES OF LATE AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 40 WELL INLAND. /29

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PUSHES SOUTH A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THIS MEANS A COOLING OFF THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AS A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THEN COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM EAST...MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFTS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
NOT LONG ENOUGH TO SEE ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE
FA. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

/16

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY IS FOLLOWED BY MORE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE PLAINS. THE MORE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO FORM A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COOL AIR-MASS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS BACK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY START TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SUNDAY RAND FROM LOW
50S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE
ORGANIZED...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR STRENGTH...WITH
THE GFS BEING CONSISTENTLY THE STRONGER ONE. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION...HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING
OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT FOR THUNDER TO BE
INCLUDED...BUT DO NOT FEEL ENOUGH FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
BE MIXED IN...AT THIS POINT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST AS
POST SYSTEM COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE FA. ALSO...BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FA...ALONG AND NORTH
OF A VERY WEAKLY ORGANIZED WARM FRONT STRETCHING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN ENERGY MOVES OFF...AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...MOVING EAST TO NEAR THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE
MOVES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TO OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. FOR THE
FA...THIS SHIFTS NORTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERLY...WARMING THE FA IN THE
PROCESS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AROUND 70S
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

/16

MARINE...MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...STRONGER MAINLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS...WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...THEN
SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA.  WINDS WILL BE NEARLY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.  A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY GRADUALLY SWITCHES TO AN ONSHORE FLOW BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 111740 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. INCREASING
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIMISHING WIND SPEEDS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BR AND LOW ST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES
BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 12/0600-0900 UTC. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES TOWARD SUNRISE.
VSBYS/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY. /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...

LATEST SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
ARKLAMISS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE WERE SEEING THIS
TIME YESTERDAY.

AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING MORE
QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  BASED ON THIS...AND THE FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPERATURE GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE HIGHS COULD EASILY REACH THE MIDDLE 70S
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BETWEEN US-84 AND IH-65.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE FORTHCOMING.  /BUTTS/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROF
REMAINS NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE ARKLATEX ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
EVOLVES INTO MORE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROF IN THE
PROCESS.  A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE MID 40S INLAND.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE TROF OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AS WELL AT
LEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE LIKEWISE MUCH WARMER IN
COMPARISON TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES OF LATE AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 40 WELL INLAND. /29

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PUSHES SOUTH A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THIS MEANS A COOLING OFF THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AS A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THEN COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM EAST...MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFTS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
NOT LONG ENOUGH TO SEE ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE
FA. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

/16

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY IS FOLLOWED BY MORE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE PLAINS. THE MORE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO FORM A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COOL AIR-MASS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS BACK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY START TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SUNDAY RAND FROM LOW
50S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE
ORGANIZED...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR STRENGTH...WITH
THE GFS BEING CONSISTENTLY THE STRONGER ONE. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION...HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING
OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT FOR THUNDER TO BE
INCLUDED...BUT DO NOT FEEL ENOUGH FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
BE MIXED IN...AT THIS POINT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST AS
POST SYSTEM COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE FA. ALSO...BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FA...ALONG AND NORTH
OF A VERY WEAKLY ORGANIZED WARM FRONT STRETCHING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN ENERGY MOVES OFF...AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...MOVING EAST TO NEAR THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE
MOVES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TO OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. FOR THE
FA...THIS SHIFTS NORTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERLY...WARMING THE FA IN THE
PROCESS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AROUND 70S
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

/16

MARINE...MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...STRONGER MAINLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS...WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...THEN
SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA.  WINDS WILL BE NEARLY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.  A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY GRADUALLY SWITCHES TO AN ONSHORE FLOW BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KMOB 111740 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. INCREASING
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIMISHING WIND SPEEDS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BR AND LOW ST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES
BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 12/0600-0900 UTC. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES TOWARD SUNRISE.
VSBYS/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY. /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...

LATEST SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
ARKLAMISS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE WERE SEEING THIS
TIME YESTERDAY.

AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING MORE
QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  BASED ON THIS...AND THE FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPERATURE GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE HIGHS COULD EASILY REACH THE MIDDLE 70S
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BETWEEN US-84 AND IH-65.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE FORTHCOMING.  /BUTTS/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROF
REMAINS NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE ARKLATEX ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
EVOLVES INTO MORE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROF IN THE
PROCESS.  A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE MID 40S INLAND.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE TROF OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AS WELL AT
LEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE LIKEWISE MUCH WARMER IN
COMPARISON TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES OF LATE AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 40 WELL INLAND. /29

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PUSHES SOUTH A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THIS MEANS A COOLING OFF THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AS A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THEN COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM EAST...MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFTS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
NOT LONG ENOUGH TO SEE ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE
FA. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

/16

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY IS FOLLOWED BY MORE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE PLAINS. THE MORE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO FORM A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COOL AIR-MASS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS BACK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY START TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SUNDAY RAND FROM LOW
50S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE
ORGANIZED...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR STRENGTH...WITH
THE GFS BEING CONSISTENTLY THE STRONGER ONE. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION...HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING
OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT FOR THUNDER TO BE
INCLUDED...BUT DO NOT FEEL ENOUGH FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
BE MIXED IN...AT THIS POINT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST AS
POST SYSTEM COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE FA. ALSO...BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FA...ALONG AND NORTH
OF A VERY WEAKLY ORGANIZED WARM FRONT STRETCHING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN ENERGY MOVES OFF...AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...MOVING EAST TO NEAR THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE
MOVES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TO OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. FOR THE
FA...THIS SHIFTS NORTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERLY...WARMING THE FA IN THE
PROCESS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AROUND 70S
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

/16

MARINE...MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...STRONGER MAINLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS...WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...THEN
SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA.  WINDS WILL BE NEARLY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.  A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY GRADUALLY SWITCHES TO AN ONSHORE FLOW BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 111723
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1123 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

IT`S SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE...AND MUCH WARMER...DAY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA...MUCH NEEDED AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
WE`VE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE`S STILL A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN TOO DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO RISE TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S IN THE NORTH. INCREASED HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE WSW AROUND 7-10 KTS IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AREA
WIDE OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 30
PERCENT. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT AGAIN. A MUCH
DRIER...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  29  58  27  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    55  31  59  29  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  57  34  61  29  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  62  35  63  33  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      59  35  62  32  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      61  38  64  34  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  39  69  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        69  43  69  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 111656 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1056 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WARM FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BIRMINGHAM AREA.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS FROM MODELS THAT THIS WILL PREVENT THE WARM
FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD FORCE THE WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AGAIN. THE END RESULT
OF THIS WILL BE THAT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
NEAR THE AL/TN LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN COUNTIES. FURTHER
SOUTH...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. NEAR
THE AL/MS STATE LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S. FURTHER NORTH HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN...AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CIGS OF ~120AGL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND
VRBL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NW AT 8-12KT.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 111656 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1056 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WARM FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BIRMINGHAM AREA.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS FROM MODELS THAT THIS WILL PREVENT THE WARM
FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD FORCE THE WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AGAIN. THE END RESULT
OF THIS WILL BE THAT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
NEAR THE AL/TN LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN COUNTIES. FURTHER
SOUTH...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. NEAR
THE AL/MS STATE LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S. FURTHER NORTH HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN...AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CIGS OF ~120AGL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND
VRBL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NW AT 8-12KT.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 111656 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1056 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WARM FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BIRMINGHAM AREA.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS FROM MODELS THAT THIS WILL PREVENT THE WARM
FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD FORCE THE WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AGAIN. THE END RESULT
OF THIS WILL BE THAT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
NEAR THE AL/TN LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN COUNTIES. FURTHER
SOUTH...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. NEAR
THE AL/MS STATE LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S. FURTHER NORTH HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN...AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CIGS OF ~120AGL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND
VRBL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NW AT 8-12KT.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 111656 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1056 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WARM FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BIRMINGHAM AREA.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS FROM MODELS THAT THIS WILL PREVENT THE WARM
FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD FORCE THE WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AGAIN. THE END RESULT
OF THIS WILL BE THAT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
NEAR THE AL/TN LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN COUNTIES. FURTHER
SOUTH...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. NEAR
THE AL/MS STATE LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S. FURTHER NORTH HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN...AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CIGS OF ~120AGL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND
VRBL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NW AT 8-12KT.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 111656 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1056 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WARM FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BIRMINGHAM AREA.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS FROM MODELS THAT THIS WILL PREVENT THE WARM
FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD FORCE THE WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AGAIN. THE END RESULT
OF THIS WILL BE THAT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
NEAR THE AL/TN LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN COUNTIES. FURTHER
SOUTH...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. NEAR
THE AL/MS STATE LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S. FURTHER NORTH HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN...AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CIGS OF ~120AGL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND
VRBL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NW AT 8-12KT.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 111643
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1043 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

IT`S SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE...AND MUCH WARMER...DAY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA...MUCH NEEDED AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
WE`VE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE`S STILL A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN TOO DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO RISE TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S IN THE NORTH. INCREASED HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT PRESENT. HOWEVER...OVERALL MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND ONLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT OR SO WITH ITS
PROGRESSION. WINDS MAY SHIFT BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL FOR A
BOUNDARY AND UNDER 10 KTS TODAY.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 30
PERCENT. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT AGAIN. A MUCH
DRIER...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 551 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
REMAINED DRY AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MEANDER SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG RIDGE
SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS.

08

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A BRUTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS WILL
BE FELT TO OUR EAST WITH MORE OF A SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION REGIME
FOR ALABAMA. STILL...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN ON FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS.

THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THOUGH THE 850 MB
FREEZING LINE WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND SUBLIMATION AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY BE ABLE TO OFFSET STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL RESIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY FOR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
AS WELL...BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO A LACK OF COLD AIR DAMMING. OVERALL THIS SCENARIO
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED IMPACTS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST. WITHOUT A CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  29  58  27  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    55  31  59  29  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  57  34  61  29  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  62  35  63  33  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      59  35  62  32  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      61  38  64  34  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  39  69  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        69  43  69  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 111641 CCC
AFDHUN

FXUS64 KHUN DDHHMM CCC
AFDHUN

FXUS64 KHUN DDHHMM CCB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WARM FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BIRMINGHAM AREA.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS FROM MODELS THAT THIS WILL PREVENT THE WARM
FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD FORCE THE WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AGAIN. THE END RESULT
OF THIS WILL BE THAT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
NEAR THE AL/TN LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN COUNTIES. FURTHER
SOUTH...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. NEAR
THE AL/MS STATE LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S. FURTHER NORTH HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN...AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 507 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
CI/AC CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 111639 CCB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WARM FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BIRMINGHAM AREA.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS FROM MODELS THAT THIS WILL PREVENT THE WARM
FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD FORCE THE WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AGAIN. THE END RESULT
OF THIS WILL BE THAT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
NEAR THE AL/TN LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN COUNTIES. FURTHER
SOUTH...WEAKEN WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. NEAR
THE AL/MS STATE LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S. FURTHER NORTH HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN...AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 507 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
CI/AC CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 111636 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WARM FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BIRMINGHAM AREA.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS FROM MODELS THAT THIS WILL PREVENT THE WARM
FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD FORCE THE WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AGAIN. THE END RESULT
OF THIS WILL BE THAT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
NEAR THE AL/TN LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN COUNTIES. FURTHER
SOUTH...WEAKENING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. NEAR
THE AL/MS STATE LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S. FURTHER NORTH HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN...DUE AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 507 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
CI/AC CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 111636 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...

LATEST SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
ARKLAMISS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE WERE SEEING THIS
TIME YESTERDAY.

AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING MORE
QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  BASED ON THIS...AND THE FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPERATURE GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE HIGHS COULD EASILY REACH THE MIDDLE 70S
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BETWEEN US-84 AND IH-65.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE FORTHCOMING.  /BUTTS/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROF
REMAINS NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE ARKLATEX ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
EVOLVES INTO MORE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROF IN THE
PROCESS.  A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE MID 40S INLAND.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE TROF OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AS WELL AT
LEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE LIKEWISE MUCH WARMER IN
COMPARISON TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES OF LATE AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 40 WELL INLAND. /29

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PUSHES SOUTH A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THIS MEANS A COOLING OFF THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AS A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THEN COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM EAST...MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFTS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
NOT LONG ENOUGH TO SEE ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE
FA. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

/16

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY IS FOLLOWED BY MORE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE PLAINS. THE MORE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO FORM A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COOL AIR-MASS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS BACK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY START TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SUNDAY RAND FROM LOW
50S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE
ORGANIZED...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR STRENGTH...WITH
THE GFS BEING CONSISTENTLY THE STRONGER ONE. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION...HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING
OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT FOR THUNDER TO BE
INCLUDED...BUT DO NOT FEEL ENOUGH FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
BE MIXED IN...AT THIS POINT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST AS
POST SYSTEM COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE FA. ALSO...BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FA...ALONG AND NORTH
OF A VERY WEAKLY ORGANIZED WARM FRONT STRETCHING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN ENERGY MOVES OFF...AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...MOVING EAST TO NEAR THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE
MOVES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TO OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. FOR THE
FA...THIS SHIFTS NORTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERLY...WARMING THE FA IN THE
PROCESS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AROUND 70S
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

/16

MARINE...MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...STRONGER MAINLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS...WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...THEN
SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA.  WINDS WILL BE NEARLY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.  A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY GRADUALLY SWITCHES TO AN ONSHORE FLOW BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 111151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
551 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
REMAINED DRY AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MEANDER SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG RIDGE
SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS.

08

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A BRUTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS WILL
BE FELT TO OUR EAST WITH MORE OF A SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION REGIME
FOR ALABAMA. STILL...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN ON FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS.

THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THOUGH THE 850 MB
FREEZING LINE WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND SUBLIMATION AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY BE ABLE TO OFFSET STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL RESIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY FOR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
AS WELL...BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO A LACK OF COLD AIR DAMMING. OVERALL THIS SCENARIO
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED IMPACTS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST. WITHOUT A CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT PRESENT. HOWEVER...OVERALL MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND ONLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT OR SO WITH ITS
PROGRESSION. WINDS MAY SHIFT BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL FOR A
BOUNDARY AND UNDER 10 KTS TODAY.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 30
PERCENT. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT AGAIN. A MUCH
DRIER...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  29  58  27  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    54  31  59  29  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  56  34  61  29  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  35  63  33  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      58  35  62  32  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      59  38  64  34  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  65  39  69  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  43  69  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87




000
FXUS64 KBMX 111151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
551 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
REMAINED DRY AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MEANDER SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG RIDGE
SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS.

08

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A BRUTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS WILL
BE FELT TO OUR EAST WITH MORE OF A SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION REGIME
FOR ALABAMA. STILL...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN ON FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS.

THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THOUGH THE 850 MB
FREEZING LINE WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND SUBLIMATION AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY BE ABLE TO OFFSET STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL RESIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY FOR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
AS WELL...BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO A LACK OF COLD AIR DAMMING. OVERALL THIS SCENARIO
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED IMPACTS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST. WITHOUT A CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT PRESENT. HOWEVER...OVERALL MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND ONLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT OR SO WITH ITS
PROGRESSION. WINDS MAY SHIFT BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL FOR A
BOUNDARY AND UNDER 10 KTS TODAY.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 30
PERCENT. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT AGAIN. A MUCH
DRIER...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  29  58  27  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    54  31  59  29  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  56  34  61  29  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  35  63  33  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      58  35  62  32  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      59  38  64  34  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  65  39  69  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  43  69  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87



000
FXUS64 KBMX 111151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
551 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
REMAINED DRY AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MEANDER SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG RIDGE
SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS.

08

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A BRUTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS WILL
BE FELT TO OUR EAST WITH MORE OF A SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION REGIME
FOR ALABAMA. STILL...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN ON FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS.

THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THOUGH THE 850 MB
FREEZING LINE WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND SUBLIMATION AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY BE ABLE TO OFFSET STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL RESIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY FOR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
AS WELL...BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO A LACK OF COLD AIR DAMMING. OVERALL THIS SCENARIO
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED IMPACTS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST. WITHOUT A CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT PRESENT. HOWEVER...OVERALL MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND ONLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT OR SO WITH ITS
PROGRESSION. WINDS MAY SHIFT BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL FOR A
BOUNDARY AND UNDER 10 KTS TODAY.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 30
PERCENT. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT AGAIN. A MUCH
DRIER...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  29  58  27  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    54  31  59  29  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  56  34  61  29  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  35  63  33  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      58  35  62  32  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      59  38  64  34  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  65  39  69  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  43  69  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87




000
FXUS64 KMOB 111128 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
528 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROF
REMAINS NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE ARKLATEX ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
EVOLVES INTO MORE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROF IN THE
PROCESS.  A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE MID 40S INLAND.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE TROF OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AS WELL AT
LEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE LIKEWISE MUCH WARMER IN
COMPARISON TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES OF LATE AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 40 WELL INLAND. /29

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PUSHES SOUTH A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THIS MEANS A COOLING OFF THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AS A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THEN COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM EAST...MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFTS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
NOT LONG ENOUGH TO SEE ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE
FA. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

/16

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY IS FOLLOWED BY MORE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE PLAINS. THE MORE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO FORM A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COOL AIR-MASS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS BACK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY START TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SUNDAY RAND FROM LOW
50S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE
ORGANIZED...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR STRENGTH...WITH
THE GFS BEING CONSISTENTLY THE STRONGER ONE. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION...HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING
OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT FOR THUNDER TO BE
INCLUDED...BUT DO NOT FEEL ENOUGH FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
BE MIXED IN...AT THIS POINT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST AS
POST SYSTEM COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE FA. ALSO...BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FA...ALONG AND NORTH
OF A VERY WEAKLY ORGANIZED WARM FRONT STRETCHING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN ENERGY MOVES OFF...AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...MOVING EAST TO NEAR THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE
MOVES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TO OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. FOR THE
FA...THIS SHIFTS NORTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERLY...WARMING THE FA IN THE
PROCESS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AROUND 70S
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

/16

MARINE...MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...STRONGER MAINLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS...WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...THEN
SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA.  WINDS WILL BE NEARLY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.  A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY GRADUALLY SWITCHES TO AN ONSHORE FLOW BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 111128 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
528 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROF
REMAINS NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE ARKLATEX ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
EVOLVES INTO MORE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROF IN THE
PROCESS.  A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE MID 40S INLAND.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE TROF OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AS WELL AT
LEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE LIKEWISE MUCH WARMER IN
COMPARISON TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES OF LATE AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 40 WELL INLAND. /29

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PUSHES SOUTH A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THIS MEANS A COOLING OFF THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AS A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THEN COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM EAST...MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFTS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
NOT LONG ENOUGH TO SEE ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE
FA. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

/16

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY IS FOLLOWED BY MORE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE PLAINS. THE MORE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO FORM A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COOL AIR-MASS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS BACK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY START TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SUNDAY RAND FROM LOW
50S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE
ORGANIZED...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR STRENGTH...WITH
THE GFS BEING CONSISTENTLY THE STRONGER ONE. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION...HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING
OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT FOR THUNDER TO BE
INCLUDED...BUT DO NOT FEEL ENOUGH FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
BE MIXED IN...AT THIS POINT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST AS
POST SYSTEM COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE FA. ALSO...BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FA...ALONG AND NORTH
OF A VERY WEAKLY ORGANIZED WARM FRONT STRETCHING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN ENERGY MOVES OFF...AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...MOVING EAST TO NEAR THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE
MOVES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TO OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. FOR THE
FA...THIS SHIFTS NORTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERLY...WARMING THE FA IN THE
PROCESS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AROUND 70S
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

/16

MARINE...MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...STRONGER MAINLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS...WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...THEN
SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA.  WINDS WILL BE NEARLY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.  A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY GRADUALLY SWITCHES TO AN ONSHORE FLOW BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 111128 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
528 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROF
REMAINS NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE ARKLATEX ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
EVOLVES INTO MORE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROF IN THE
PROCESS.  A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE MID 40S INLAND.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE TROF OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AS WELL AT
LEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE LIKEWISE MUCH WARMER IN
COMPARISON TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES OF LATE AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 40 WELL INLAND. /29

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PUSHES SOUTH A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THIS MEANS A COOLING OFF THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AS A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THEN COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM EAST...MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFTS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
NOT LONG ENOUGH TO SEE ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE
FA. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

/16

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY IS FOLLOWED BY MORE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE PLAINS. THE MORE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO FORM A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COOL AIR-MASS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS BACK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY START TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SUNDAY RAND FROM LOW
50S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE
ORGANIZED...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR STRENGTH...WITH
THE GFS BEING CONSISTENTLY THE STRONGER ONE. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION...HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING
OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT FOR THUNDER TO BE
INCLUDED...BUT DO NOT FEEL ENOUGH FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
BE MIXED IN...AT THIS POINT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST AS
POST SYSTEM COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE FA. ALSO...BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FA...ALONG AND NORTH
OF A VERY WEAKLY ORGANIZED WARM FRONT STRETCHING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN ENERGY MOVES OFF...AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...MOVING EAST TO NEAR THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE
MOVES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TO OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. FOR THE
FA...THIS SHIFTS NORTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERLY...WARMING THE FA IN THE
PROCESS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AROUND 70S
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

/16

MARINE...MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...STRONGER MAINLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS...WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...THEN
SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA.  WINDS WILL BE NEARLY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.  A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY GRADUALLY SWITCHES TO AN ONSHORE FLOW BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KHUN 111107
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
507 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE REGION THE LAST TWO
DAYS IS FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH TEMPS AS OF 09Z IN THE
LOWER 20S. AS THE AIR MASS RECOVERS UNDER SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPS WILL FEEL
WARM COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE UPPER 40S LOWER 50S. WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST
A FEW DEG COOLER THAN OTHER AREAS. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...EVEN WITH LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AGAIN WITH SKIES BRIEFLY CLEARING OUT IN THE
MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WITH A MUCH DRIER
NW FLOW OVER THE AREA...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN TERMS OF TEMPS
BECAUSE THE FRONT COULD PROGRESS QUICKER DUE TO LITTLE BLOCKING OUT
TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST.

A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT
WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 20S BUT WITH STRONG AND CONSTANT COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN THE DAY ON SATURDAY...HIGHS SAT
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS
EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS 5-10 DEG COLDER
THAN THE TEMPS.

TEMPS RECOVER NICELY ON SUNDAY AS A STEEP MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES IN
AND HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S. AT THE SAME TIME THE NEXT SYSTEM
STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW DIGGING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS UPPER WAVE WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS
WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE BASE OF A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GULF COAST. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
AHEAD OF IT AND MOVE A SURFACE LOW SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CHANGING EACH MODEL RUN FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS IN
REGARDS TO THE SUNDAY-MONDAY SYSTEM SO IT IS HARD TO PLACE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GENERAL PATTERN ON
SUNDAY IS CONSISTENT WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING IN THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVES AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. IN
GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER IN TERMS OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIP WHICH A FEW DAYS AGO LOOKED LIKE A SNOW EVENT. NOW WE ARE
SEEING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW AT THE ONSET SUNDAY NIGHT...MAYBE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET IN SOME AREAS FROM 9-12Z WITH EVERYWHERE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE WARM NOSE IN THE MID
LEVELS DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR ALREADY ERODING ONCE THE SYSTEM GETS
HERE...LOOKS MORE LIKE A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET EVENT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
RAIN WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE 40S. HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS (LESS THAN HALF AN INCH) FOR AREAS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE THE COLDER TEMPS WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST.

THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW
MONDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE GFS SOLUTION IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ECMWF
IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SO WILL LEAVE THE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION OUT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...LINGERING PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT MAY TAPER OFF AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW BEFORE THE COLUMN
QUICKLY DRIES OUT.

ANOTHER QUICK TEMP RECOVERY ON TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SPREAD OF TEMPS TUE IS 10-15 DEGREES
AMONG SOME MODELS EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET UPS SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTH...HIGHS WED AND THU COULD REACH NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
CI/AC CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 111107
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
507 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE REGION THE LAST TWO
DAYS IS FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH TEMPS AS OF 09Z IN THE
LOWER 20S. AS THE AIR MASS RECOVERS UNDER SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPS WILL FEEL
WARM COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE UPPER 40S LOWER 50S. WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST
A FEW DEG COOLER THAN OTHER AREAS. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...EVEN WITH LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AGAIN WITH SKIES BRIEFLY CLEARING OUT IN THE
MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WITH A MUCH DRIER
NW FLOW OVER THE AREA...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN TERMS OF TEMPS
BECAUSE THE FRONT COULD PROGRESS QUICKER DUE TO LITTLE BLOCKING OUT
TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST.

A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT
WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 20S BUT WITH STRONG AND CONSTANT COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN THE DAY ON SATURDAY...HIGHS SAT
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS
EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS 5-10 DEG COLDER
THAN THE TEMPS.

TEMPS RECOVER NICELY ON SUNDAY AS A STEEP MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES IN
AND HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S. AT THE SAME TIME THE NEXT SYSTEM
STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW DIGGING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS UPPER WAVE WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS
WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE BASE OF A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GULF COAST. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
AHEAD OF IT AND MOVE A SURFACE LOW SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CHANGING EACH MODEL RUN FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS IN
REGARDS TO THE SUNDAY-MONDAY SYSTEM SO IT IS HARD TO PLACE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GENERAL PATTERN ON
SUNDAY IS CONSISTENT WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING IN THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVES AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. IN
GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER IN TERMS OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIP WHICH A FEW DAYS AGO LOOKED LIKE A SNOW EVENT. NOW WE ARE
SEEING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW AT THE ONSET SUNDAY NIGHT...MAYBE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET IN SOME AREAS FROM 9-12Z WITH EVERYWHERE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE WARM NOSE IN THE MID
LEVELS DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR ALREADY ERODING ONCE THE SYSTEM GETS
HERE...LOOKS MORE LIKE A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET EVENT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
RAIN WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE 40S. HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS (LESS THAN HALF AN INCH) FOR AREAS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE THE COLDER TEMPS WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST.

THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW
MONDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE GFS SOLUTION IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ECMWF
IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SO WILL LEAVE THE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION OUT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...LINGERING PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT MAY TAPER OFF AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW BEFORE THE COLUMN
QUICKLY DRIES OUT.

ANOTHER QUICK TEMP RECOVERY ON TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SPREAD OF TEMPS TUE IS 10-15 DEGREES
AMONG SOME MODELS EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET UPS SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTH...HIGHS WED AND THU COULD REACH NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
CI/AC CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 111107
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
507 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE REGION THE LAST TWO
DAYS IS FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH TEMPS AS OF 09Z IN THE
LOWER 20S. AS THE AIR MASS RECOVERS UNDER SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPS WILL FEEL
WARM COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE UPPER 40S LOWER 50S. WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST
A FEW DEG COOLER THAN OTHER AREAS. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...EVEN WITH LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AGAIN WITH SKIES BRIEFLY CLEARING OUT IN THE
MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WITH A MUCH DRIER
NW FLOW OVER THE AREA...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN TERMS OF TEMPS
BECAUSE THE FRONT COULD PROGRESS QUICKER DUE TO LITTLE BLOCKING OUT
TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST.

A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT
WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 20S BUT WITH STRONG AND CONSTANT COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN THE DAY ON SATURDAY...HIGHS SAT
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS
EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS 5-10 DEG COLDER
THAN THE TEMPS.

TEMPS RECOVER NICELY ON SUNDAY AS A STEEP MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES IN
AND HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S. AT THE SAME TIME THE NEXT SYSTEM
STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW DIGGING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS UPPER WAVE WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS
WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE BASE OF A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GULF COAST. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
AHEAD OF IT AND MOVE A SURFACE LOW SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CHANGING EACH MODEL RUN FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS IN
REGARDS TO THE SUNDAY-MONDAY SYSTEM SO IT IS HARD TO PLACE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GENERAL PATTERN ON
SUNDAY IS CONSISTENT WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING IN THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVES AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. IN
GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER IN TERMS OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIP WHICH A FEW DAYS AGO LOOKED LIKE A SNOW EVENT. NOW WE ARE
SEEING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW AT THE ONSET SUNDAY NIGHT...MAYBE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET IN SOME AREAS FROM 9-12Z WITH EVERYWHERE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE WARM NOSE IN THE MID
LEVELS DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR ALREADY ERODING ONCE THE SYSTEM GETS
HERE...LOOKS MORE LIKE A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET EVENT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
RAIN WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE 40S. HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS (LESS THAN HALF AN INCH) FOR AREAS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE THE COLDER TEMPS WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST.

THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW
MONDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE GFS SOLUTION IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ECMWF
IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SO WILL LEAVE THE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION OUT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...LINGERING PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT MAY TAPER OFF AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW BEFORE THE COLUMN
QUICKLY DRIES OUT.

ANOTHER QUICK TEMP RECOVERY ON TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SPREAD OF TEMPS TUE IS 10-15 DEGREES
AMONG SOME MODELS EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET UPS SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTH...HIGHS WED AND THU COULD REACH NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
CI/AC CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 111107
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
507 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE REGION THE LAST TWO
DAYS IS FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH TEMPS AS OF 09Z IN THE
LOWER 20S. AS THE AIR MASS RECOVERS UNDER SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPS WILL FEEL
WARM COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE UPPER 40S LOWER 50S. WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST
A FEW DEG COOLER THAN OTHER AREAS. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...EVEN WITH LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AGAIN WITH SKIES BRIEFLY CLEARING OUT IN THE
MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WITH A MUCH DRIER
NW FLOW OVER THE AREA...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN TERMS OF TEMPS
BECAUSE THE FRONT COULD PROGRESS QUICKER DUE TO LITTLE BLOCKING OUT
TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST.

A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT
WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 20S BUT WITH STRONG AND CONSTANT COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN THE DAY ON SATURDAY...HIGHS SAT
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS
EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS 5-10 DEG COLDER
THAN THE TEMPS.

TEMPS RECOVER NICELY ON SUNDAY AS A STEEP MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES IN
AND HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S. AT THE SAME TIME THE NEXT SYSTEM
STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW DIGGING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS UPPER WAVE WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS
WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE BASE OF A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GULF COAST. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
AHEAD OF IT AND MOVE A SURFACE LOW SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CHANGING EACH MODEL RUN FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS IN
REGARDS TO THE SUNDAY-MONDAY SYSTEM SO IT IS HARD TO PLACE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GENERAL PATTERN ON
SUNDAY IS CONSISTENT WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING IN THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVES AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. IN
GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER IN TERMS OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIP WHICH A FEW DAYS AGO LOOKED LIKE A SNOW EVENT. NOW WE ARE
SEEING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW AT THE ONSET SUNDAY NIGHT...MAYBE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET IN SOME AREAS FROM 9-12Z WITH EVERYWHERE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE WARM NOSE IN THE MID
LEVELS DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR ALREADY ERODING ONCE THE SYSTEM GETS
HERE...LOOKS MORE LIKE A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET EVENT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
RAIN WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE 40S. HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS (LESS THAN HALF AN INCH) FOR AREAS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE THE COLDER TEMPS WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST.

THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW
MONDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE GFS SOLUTION IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ECMWF
IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SO WILL LEAVE THE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION OUT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...LINGERING PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT MAY TAPER OFF AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW BEFORE THE COLUMN
QUICKLY DRIES OUT.

ANOTHER QUICK TEMP RECOVERY ON TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SPREAD OF TEMPS TUE IS 10-15 DEGREES
AMONG SOME MODELS EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET UPS SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTH...HIGHS WED AND THU COULD REACH NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
CI/AC CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 111107
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
507 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE REGION THE LAST TWO
DAYS IS FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH TEMPS AS OF 09Z IN THE
LOWER 20S. AS THE AIR MASS RECOVERS UNDER SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPS WILL FEEL
WARM COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE UPPER 40S LOWER 50S. WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST
A FEW DEG COOLER THAN OTHER AREAS. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...EVEN WITH LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AGAIN WITH SKIES BRIEFLY CLEARING OUT IN THE
MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WITH A MUCH DRIER
NW FLOW OVER THE AREA...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN TERMS OF TEMPS
BECAUSE THE FRONT COULD PROGRESS QUICKER DUE TO LITTLE BLOCKING OUT
TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST.

A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT
WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 20S BUT WITH STRONG AND CONSTANT COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN THE DAY ON SATURDAY...HIGHS SAT
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS
EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS 5-10 DEG COLDER
THAN THE TEMPS.

TEMPS RECOVER NICELY ON SUNDAY AS A STEEP MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES IN
AND HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S. AT THE SAME TIME THE NEXT SYSTEM
STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW DIGGING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS UPPER WAVE WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS
WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE BASE OF A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GULF COAST. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
AHEAD OF IT AND MOVE A SURFACE LOW SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CHANGING EACH MODEL RUN FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS IN
REGARDS TO THE SUNDAY-MONDAY SYSTEM SO IT IS HARD TO PLACE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GENERAL PATTERN ON
SUNDAY IS CONSISTENT WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING IN THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVES AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. IN
GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER IN TERMS OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIP WHICH A FEW DAYS AGO LOOKED LIKE A SNOW EVENT. NOW WE ARE
SEEING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW AT THE ONSET SUNDAY NIGHT...MAYBE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET IN SOME AREAS FROM 9-12Z WITH EVERYWHERE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE WARM NOSE IN THE MID
LEVELS DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR ALREADY ERODING ONCE THE SYSTEM GETS
HERE...LOOKS MORE LIKE A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET EVENT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
RAIN WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE 40S. HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS (LESS THAN HALF AN INCH) FOR AREAS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE THE COLDER TEMPS WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST.

THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW
MONDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE GFS SOLUTION IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ECMWF
IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SO WILL LEAVE THE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION OUT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...LINGERING PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT MAY TAPER OFF AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW BEFORE THE COLUMN
QUICKLY DRIES OUT.

ANOTHER QUICK TEMP RECOVERY ON TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SPREAD OF TEMPS TUE IS 10-15 DEGREES
AMONG SOME MODELS EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET UPS SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTH...HIGHS WED AND THU COULD REACH NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
CI/AC CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 111007
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROF
REMAINS NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE ARKLATEX ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
EVOLVES INTO MORE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROF IN THE
PROCESS.  A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE MID 40S INLAND.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE TROF OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AS WELL AT
LEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE LIKEWISE MUCH WARMER IN
COMPARISON TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES OF LATE AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 40 WELL INLAND. /29

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PUSHES SOUTH A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THIS MEANS A COOLING OFF THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AS A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THEN COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM EAST...MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFTS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING. ..BUT
NOT LONG ENOUGH TO SEE ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE
FA. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

/16

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY IS FOLLOWED BY MORE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE PLAINS. THE MORE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO FORM A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COOL AIR-MASS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS BACK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY START TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SUNDAY RAND FROM LOW
50S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE
ORGANIZED...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR STRENGTH...WITH
THE GFS BEING CONSISTENTLY THE STRONGER ONE. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION...HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING
OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT FOR THUNDER TO BE
INCLUDED...BUT DO NOT FEEL ENOUGH FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
BE MIXED IN...AT THIS POINT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST AS
POST SYSTEM COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE FA. ALSO...BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FA...ALONG AND NORTH
OF A VERY WEAKLY ORGANIZED WARM FRONT STRETCHING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN ENERGY MOVES OFF...AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS AN UPPERRIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...MOVING EAST TO NEAR THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE
MOVES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TO OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. FOR THE
FA...THIS SHIFTS NORTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERLY...WARMING THE FA IN THE
PROCESS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AROUND 70S
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

/16

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...STRONGER MAINLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS...WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...THEN
SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA.  WINDS WILL BE NEARLY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.  A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY GRADUALLY SWITCHES TO AN ONSHORE FLOW BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  49  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   68  52  69  44 /   0   0  10   0
DESTIN      66  54  67  46 /   0   0  10   0
EVERGREEN   71  45  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  74  41  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      70  41  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   70  46  72  43 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 110932
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
332 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
REMAINED DRY AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MEANDER SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG RIDGE
SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS.

08/MNK

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A BRUTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS WILL
BE FELT TO OUR EAST WITH MORE OF A SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION REGIME
FOR ALABAMA. STILL...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN ON FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS.

THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THOUGH THE 850 MB
FREEZING LINE WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND SUBLIMATION AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY BE ABLE TO OFFSET STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL RESIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY FOR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
AS WELL...BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO A LACK OF COLD AIR DAMMING. OVERALL THIS SCENARIO
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED IMPACTS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST. WITHOUT A CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH RH VALUES ABOVE 30 PERCENT. STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT AGAIN. A MUCH DRIER...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  29  58  27  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    54  31  59  29  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  56  34  61  29  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  35  63  33  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      58  35  62  32  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      59  38  64  34  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  65  39  69  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  43  69  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 110932
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
332 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
REMAINED DRY AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MEANDER SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG RIDGE
SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS.

08/MNK

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A BRUTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS WILL
BE FELT TO OUR EAST WITH MORE OF A SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION REGIME
FOR ALABAMA. STILL...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN ON FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS.

THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THOUGH THE 850 MB
FREEZING LINE WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND SUBLIMATION AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY BE ABLE TO OFFSET STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL RESIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY FOR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
AS WELL...BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO A LACK OF COLD AIR DAMMING. OVERALL THIS SCENARIO
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED IMPACTS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST. WITHOUT A CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH RH VALUES ABOVE 30 PERCENT. STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT AGAIN. A MUCH DRIER...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  29  58  27  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    54  31  59  29  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  56  34  61  29  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  35  63  33  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      58  35  62  32  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      59  38  64  34  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  65  39  69  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  43  69  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 110932
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
332 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
REMAINED DRY AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MEANDER SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG RIDGE
SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS.

08/MNK

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A BRUTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS WILL
BE FELT TO OUR EAST WITH MORE OF A SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION REGIME
FOR ALABAMA. STILL...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN ON FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS.

THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THOUGH THE 850 MB
FREEZING LINE WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND SUBLIMATION AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY BE ABLE TO OFFSET STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL RESIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY FOR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
AS WELL...BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO A LACK OF COLD AIR DAMMING. OVERALL THIS SCENARIO
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED IMPACTS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST. WITHOUT A CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH RH VALUES ABOVE 30 PERCENT. STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT AGAIN. A MUCH DRIER...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  29  58  27  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    54  31  59  29  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  56  34  61  29  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  35  63  33  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      58  35  62  32  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      59  38  64  34  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  65  39  69  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  43  69  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 110932
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
332 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
REMAINED DRY AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MEANDER SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG RIDGE
SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS.

08/MNK

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A BRUTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS WILL
BE FELT TO OUR EAST WITH MORE OF A SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION REGIME
FOR ALABAMA. STILL...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN ON FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS.

THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THOUGH THE 850 MB
FREEZING LINE WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND SUBLIMATION AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY BE ABLE TO OFFSET STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL RESIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY FOR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
AS WELL...BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO A LACK OF COLD AIR DAMMING. OVERALL THIS SCENARIO
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED IMPACTS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST. WITHOUT A CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH RH VALUES ABOVE 30 PERCENT. STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT AGAIN. A MUCH DRIER...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  29  58  27  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    54  31  59  29  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  56  34  61  29  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  35  63  33  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      58  35  62  32  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      59  38  64  34  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  65  39  69  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  43  69  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 110932
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
332 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
REMAINED DRY AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MEANDER SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG RIDGE
SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS.

08/MNK

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A BRUTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS WILL
BE FELT TO OUR EAST WITH MORE OF A SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION REGIME
FOR ALABAMA. STILL...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN ON FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS.

THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THOUGH THE 850 MB
FREEZING LINE WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND SUBLIMATION AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY BE ABLE TO OFFSET STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL RESIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY FOR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
AS WELL...BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO A LACK OF COLD AIR DAMMING. OVERALL THIS SCENARIO
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED IMPACTS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST. WITHOUT A CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH RH VALUES ABOVE 30 PERCENT. STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT AGAIN. A MUCH DRIER...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  29  58  27  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    54  31  59  29  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  56  34  61  29  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  35  63  33  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      58  35  62  32  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      59  38  64  34  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  65  39  69  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  43  69  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 110900
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE REGION THE LAST TWO
DAYS IS FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH TEMPS AS OF 09Z IN THE
LOWER 20S. AS THE AIR MASS RECOVERS UNDER SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPS WILL FEEL
WARM COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE UPPER 40S LOWER 50S. WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST
A FEW DEG COOLER THAN OTHER AREAS. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...EVEN WITH LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AGAIN WITH SKIES BRIEFLY CLEARING OUT IN THE
MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WITH A MUCH DRIER
NW FLOW OVER THE AREA...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN TERMS OF TEMPS
BECAUSE THE FRONT COULD PROGRESS QUICKER DUE TO LITTLE BLOCKING OUT
TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST.

A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT
WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 20S BUT WITH STRONG AND CONSTANT COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN THE DAY ON SATURDAY...HIGHS SAT
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS
EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS 5-10 DEG COLDER
THAN THE TEMPS.

TEMPS RECOVER NICELY ON SUNDAY AS A STEEP MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES IN
AND HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S. AT THE SAME TIME THE NEXT SYSTEM
STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW DIGGING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS UPPER WAVE WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS
WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE BASE OF A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GULF COAST. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
AHEAD OF IT AND MOVE A SURFACE LOW SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CHANGING EACH MODEL RUN FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS IN
REGARDS TO THE SUNDAY-MONDAY SYSTEM SO IT IS HARD TO PLACE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GENERAL PATTERN ON
SUNDAY IS CONSISTENT WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING IN THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVES AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. IN
GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER IN TERMS OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIP WHICH A FEW DAYS AGO LOOKED LIKE A SNOW EVENT. NOW WE ARE
SEEING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW AT THE ONSET SUNDAY NIGHT...MAYBE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET IN SOME AREAS FROM 9-12Z WITH EVERYWHERE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE WARM NOSE IN THE MID
LEVELS DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR ALREADY ERODING ONCE THE SYSTEM GETS
HERE...LOOKS MORE LIKE A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET EVENT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
RAIN WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE 40S. HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS (LESS THAN HALF AN INCH) FOR AREAS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE THE COLDER TEMPS WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST.

THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW
MONDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE GFS SOLUTION IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ECMWF
IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SO WILL LEAVE THE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION OUT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...LINGERING PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT MAY TAPER OFF AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW BEFORE THE COLUMN
QUICKLY DRIES OUT.

ANOTHER QUICK TEMP RECOVERY ON TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SPREAD OF TEMPS TUE IS 10-15 DEGREES
AMONG SOME MODELS EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET UPS SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTH...HIGHS WED AND THU COULD REACH NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1129 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR
A E/SE DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WINDS TRANSITION TO A MORE NE
DIRECTION. SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    52  28  54  25 /   0   0  10   0
SHOALS        51  27  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      51  28  55  24 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  47  26  50  22 /   0   0  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   50  28  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    48  26  52  25 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 110600
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
PUSHED TO THE EAST LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW NO REMAINING ECHOES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED UPON THESE TRENDS
OPTED TO CONFINE CLOUD COVER TO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LARGELY TO NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT MINIMUMS ALONG WITH HOURLY
TRENDS BASED UPON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE RECENTLY DECOUPLED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, SUPPORTING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
PROCESSES.

MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MAXIMUM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET THAT WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST TENNESSEE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AN INCREASING
AMPLITUDE IN THE 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THAT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

FOR NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS, EXPECT A REMAINING SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT TOMORROW WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES
INTO GEORGIA. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR TOMORROW WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

05/JH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE
RETURNS TOMORROW AS A DRY FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED BUT 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS. AFTER A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX...HOWEVER A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     20  52  29  53  28 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    25  54  30  55  30 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  27  56  32  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  26  60  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      27  58  34  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  58  37  59  35 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  29  64  38  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        28  66  40  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 110600
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
PUSHED TO THE EAST LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW NO REMAINING ECHOES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED UPON THESE TRENDS
OPTED TO CONFINE CLOUD COVER TO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LARGELY TO NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT MINIMUMS ALONG WITH HOURLY
TRENDS BASED UPON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE RECENTLY DECOUPLED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, SUPPORTING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
PROCESSES.

MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MAXIMUM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET THAT WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST TENNESSEE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AN INCREASING
AMPLITUDE IN THE 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THAT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

FOR NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS, EXPECT A REMAINING SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT TOMORROW WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES
INTO GEORGIA. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR TOMORROW WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

05/JH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE
RETURNS TOMORROW AS A DRY FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED BUT 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS. AFTER A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX...HOWEVER A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     20  52  29  53  28 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    25  54  30  55  30 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  27  56  32  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  26  60  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      27  58  34  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  58  37  59  35 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  29  64  38  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        28  66  40  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 110600
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
PUSHED TO THE EAST LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW NO REMAINING ECHOES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED UPON THESE TRENDS
OPTED TO CONFINE CLOUD COVER TO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LARGELY TO NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT MINIMUMS ALONG WITH HOURLY
TRENDS BASED UPON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE RECENTLY DECOUPLED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, SUPPORTING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
PROCESSES.

MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MAXIMUM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET THAT WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST TENNESSEE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AN INCREASING
AMPLITUDE IN THE 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THAT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

FOR NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS, EXPECT A REMAINING SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT TOMORROW WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES
INTO GEORGIA. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR TOMORROW WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

05/JH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE
RETURNS TOMORROW AS A DRY FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED BUT 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS. AFTER A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX...HOWEVER A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     20  52  29  53  28 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    25  54  30  55  30 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  27  56  32  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  26  60  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      27  58  34  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  58  37  59  35 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  29  64  38  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        28  66  40  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 110542
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1142 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THEN WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY MORNING
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. /21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH
INTO THE GULF WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TOWARD OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT.
THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO ALLOW FOR QUICK
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO LEVEL OUT OR ONLY SLOWLY FALL LATE TONIGHT AS
THE SW FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS AROUND
30 WELL INLAND WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S CLOSE TO THE COAST. IF WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...THEN LOWS COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPING TO QUICKLY MODERATE TEMPS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
REGION. DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...NO RAIN AND FEW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. 34/JFB

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST AREA
IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THE TROF AXIS
SLIPS EAST TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF...WHILE
A COLD FRONT EASES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE BASED MOISTURE MODIFIES. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS AND THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES POINT TO
AN UPWARD PERCENTAGE OF FOG PROBABILITIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE PATTERN...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THE FRONT EASES
FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOOKING TO
COME THROUGH DRY...THE FRONT RECEIVES A STRONG SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES AND
COLD ADVECTION PROCESSES BRING A COOL DAY TO THE GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MARKEDLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH NUMBERS
RANGING FROM 50 TO 55 INTERIOR TO AROUND 57 ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES
(6 TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE). COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
SHORT TERM COMES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT TO A RANGE OF
27 TO 31 OVER THE INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 30S COAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE BY
MONDAY AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE OF SEEING RAIN BY
MONDAY...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MODE...WHETHER IT BEING
SHOWERS DOMINANT OR EQUAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEFINED AND SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN THE OTHER CAMP...THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST
SHOWING ITS LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN/MS AND AL LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...THEN EJECTING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
FIELDS IN THE ECMWF INCREASE ENOUGH AS TO POSE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE
THREAT IS GREATLY REDUCED. GIVEN THE SPREAD...WILL CALL FOR SHOWERS
TO BECOME LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MIXED IN.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON A SOLUTION.

DRIER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
COAST.

SUNDAY`S HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE MID 50S BEFORE
MODERATING A BIT INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWER
TO MID 60S FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY. FOR
LOWS...LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS EXPECTED. /10

MARINE...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE SOME
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS AND POTENTIALLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS (20KT) BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING...
BRINGING A ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
QUICKLY VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...
IMPACTING THE AREA ON MONDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 110529
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1129 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 921 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING HAD A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW STREAMING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WERE MAINLY IN A SATURATED LAYER FROM 850MB
UP TO 700MB. BENEATH THIS LAYER THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. THIS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE
SNOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AND ONLY HAD A FEW REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
SNOW ON RADAR HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE SNOW FREE AS OF 9PM AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS
VALUES. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM
A PREDOMINATELY NW DIRECTION LAST NIGHT TO A MORE E/SE TONIGHT. THIS
CHANGE WILL MEAN THAT WE WON`T BE ADVECTING NEARLY AS MUCH COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE E/NE OVER THE TN
COUNTIES AND JACKSON COUNTIES AND WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW ON THE
GROUND ACROSS MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL KEEP
VALUES A BIT COLDER THEN THE REST OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR
A E/SE DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WINDS TRANSITION TO A MORE NE
DIRECTION. SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 110529
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1129 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 921 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING HAD A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW STREAMING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WERE MAINLY IN A SATURATED LAYER FROM 850MB
UP TO 700MB. BENEATH THIS LAYER THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. THIS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE
SNOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AND ONLY HAD A FEW REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
SNOW ON RADAR HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE SNOW FREE AS OF 9PM AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS
VALUES. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM
A PREDOMINATELY NW DIRECTION LAST NIGHT TO A MORE E/SE TONIGHT. THIS
CHANGE WILL MEAN THAT WE WON`T BE ADVECTING NEARLY AS MUCH COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE E/NE OVER THE TN
COUNTIES AND JACKSON COUNTIES AND WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW ON THE
GROUND ACROSS MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL KEEP
VALUES A BIT COLDER THEN THE REST OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR
A E/SE DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WINDS TRANSITION TO A MORE NE
DIRECTION. SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 110358 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
958 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
PUSHED TO THE EAST LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW NO REMAINING ECHOES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED UPON THESE TRENDS
OPTED TO CONFINE CLOUD COVER TO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LARGELY TO NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT MINIMUMS ALONG WITH HOURLY
TRENDS BASED UPON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE RECENTLY DECOUPLED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, SUPPORTING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
PROCESSES.

MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MAXIMUM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET THAT WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST TENNESSE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AN INCREASING AMPLITUDE
IN THE 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THAT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

FOR NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS, EXPECT A REMAINING SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT TOMORROW WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES
INTO GEORGIA. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR TOMORROW WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

05/JH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE
RETURNS TOMORROW AS A DRY FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED BUT 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS. AFTER A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX...HOWEVER A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  52  29  53  28 /  10   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    25  54  30  55  30 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  28  56  32  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  28  60  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      29  58  34  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  58  37  59  35 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  29  64  38  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        29  66  40  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 110355
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
PUSHED TO THE EAST LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW NO REMAINING ECHOES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED UPON THESE TRENDS
OPTED TO CONFINE CLOUD COVER TO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANGES LARGELY TO NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT MINIMUMS ALONG WITH HOURLY
TRENDS BASED UPON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE RECENTLY DECOUPLED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, SUPPORTING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
PROCESSES.

MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MAXIMUM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET THAT WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST TENNESSE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AN INCREASING AMPLITUDE
IN THE 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THAT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

FOR NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS, EXPECT A REMAINING SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT TOMORROW WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES
INTO GEORGIA. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR TOMORROW WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

05/JH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE
RETURNS TOMORROW AS A DRY FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED BUT 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS. AFTER A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX...HOWEVER A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  52  29  53  28 /  10   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    25  54  30  55  30 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  28  56  32  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  28  60  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      29  58  34  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  58  37  59  35 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  29  64  38  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        29  66  40  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 110321
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
921 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS, SKY, AND TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING HAD A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW STREAMING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WERE MAINLY IN A SATURATED LAYER FROM 850MB
UP TO 700MB. BENEATH THIS LAYER THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. THIS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE
SNOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AND ONLY HAD A FEW REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
SNOW ON RADAR HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE SNOW FREE AS OF 9PM AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS
VALUES. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM
A PREDOMINATELY NW DIRECTION LAST NIGHT TO A MORE E/SE TONIGHT. THIS
CHANGE WILL MEAN THAT WE WON`T BE ADVECTING NEARLY AS MUCH COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE E/NE OVER THE TN
COUNTIES AND JACKSON COUNTIES AND WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW ON THE
GROUND ACROSS MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL KEEP
VALUES A BIT COLDER THEN THE REST OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 609 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...TRAILING EDGE OF VERY LGT PCPN BAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EWD INTO NE ALABAMA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH NO LINGERING THREAT
FOR SNOW FLURRIES/GRAUPEL PELLETS AT EITHER MSL/HSV. OVC ALTOSTRATUS
DECK BASED ARND 8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD AS WELL...AND SHOULD
CLEAR THE HSV TERMINAL BY 11/06Z. SCT STRATOCU WILL BE PSBL OVERNIGHT
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY VEERS TO ESE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC
CYCLONE TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A REINFORCING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BACK TO NE AT BOTH
TERMINALS BY 18Z. COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTN...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 110047
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

NICE SUNNY...ALBEIT COOL...DAY OUT THERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
WEST TN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE BUT THERE`S NOT MUCH
REACHING THE GROUND...PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES. MANY HIRES MODELS SHOW
THIS LIGHT PRECIP BAND MOVING INTO NE AL AROUND OR JUST BEFORE 00Z
THIS EVENING. THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO DON`T
BELIEVE WE`LL SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS MAINLY
CHEROKEE COUNTY...AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
THAT IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT
QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S
IN MOST AREAS...BUT THE WIND WON`T BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THE
ELEVATED WNW WINDS WE`VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL FINALLY
BE LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT.

19

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WELL TO OUR NORTH...A
MUCH STRONGER SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH BRISK NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY WILL FALL INTO THE
20S AREAWIDE.

HERE IS WHERE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT LEADING TO A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. IN ORDER TO NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH EACH MODEL
FLUCTUATION...WE WILL HOLD STEADY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR
NOW. AS WE KNOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
TEMPERATURE CAN MAKE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND/OR THUNDER POTENTIAL.

WITH A WEDGE SETTING UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND ITS
INTRUSION OF DRY AND COOL AIR...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FROZEN
PRECIP AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...THAT FROZEN PRECIP COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE HAS
BEEN A WARMING TREND WITH THE MODELS TODAY...THAT WOULD LESSEN THE
CHANCES OF FROZEN PRECIP...BUT...ALONG WITH A VARYING TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW...WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. OF NOTE...THE SHIFT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM COLD TO WARM
IS RATHER LARGE...SO LARGE THAT IT SEEMS TOO UNLIKELY. MOST
LIKELY IS A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE WILL OCCUR. UNFORTUNATELY...THAT
COULD PUT THE AREA IN ANOTHER BORDERLINE LIQUID/FROZEN PRECIP
SCENARIO FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THIS EVENT.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL MORE SHIFTS IN THE MODELS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THEY CONVERGE ON ONE SOLUTION. UNTIL THERE IS
AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE...GOING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WEATHER
GROUPS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE
RETURNS TOMORROW AS A DRY FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED BUT 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS. AFTER A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX...HOWEVER A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  52  29  53  28 /  10   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    25  54  30  55  30 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  28  56  32  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  28  60  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      29  58  34  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  58  37  59  35 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  29  64  38  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        29  66  40  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 110047
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

NICE SUNNY...ALBEIT COOL...DAY OUT THERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
WEST TN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE BUT THERE`S NOT MUCH
REACHING THE GROUND...PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES. MANY HIRES MODELS SHOW
THIS LIGHT PRECIP BAND MOVING INTO NE AL AROUND OR JUST BEFORE 00Z
THIS EVENING. THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO DON`T
BELIEVE WE`LL SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS MAINLY
CHEROKEE COUNTY...AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
THAT IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT
QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S
IN MOST AREAS...BUT THE WIND WON`T BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THE
ELEVATED WNW WINDS WE`VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL FINALLY
BE LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT.

19

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WELL TO OUR NORTH...A
MUCH STRONGER SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH BRISK NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY WILL FALL INTO THE
20S AREAWIDE.

HERE IS WHERE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT LEADING TO A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. IN ORDER TO NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH EACH MODEL
FLUCTUATION...WE WILL HOLD STEADY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR
NOW. AS WE KNOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
TEMPERATURE CAN MAKE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND/OR THUNDER POTENTIAL.

WITH A WEDGE SETTING UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND ITS
INTRUSION OF DRY AND COOL AIR...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FROZEN
PRECIP AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...THAT FROZEN PRECIP COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE HAS
BEEN A WARMING TREND WITH THE MODELS TODAY...THAT WOULD LESSEN THE
CHANCES OF FROZEN PRECIP...BUT...ALONG WITH A VARYING TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW...WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. OF NOTE...THE SHIFT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM COLD TO WARM
IS RATHER LARGE...SO LARGE THAT IT SEEMS TOO UNLIKELY. MOST
LIKELY IS A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE WILL OCCUR. UNFORTUNATELY...THAT
COULD PUT THE AREA IN ANOTHER BORDERLINE LIQUID/FROZEN PRECIP
SCENARIO FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THIS EVENT.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL MORE SHIFTS IN THE MODELS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THEY CONVERGE ON ONE SOLUTION. UNTIL THERE IS
AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE...GOING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WEATHER
GROUPS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE
RETURNS TOMORROW AS A DRY FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED BUT 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS. AFTER A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX...HOWEVER A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  52  29  53  28 /  10   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    25  54  30  55  30 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  28  56  32  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  28  60  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      29  58  34  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  58  37  59  35 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  29  64  38  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        29  66  40  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 110009
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
609 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 312 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
THE 21Z VISIBLE/IR AND RADAR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP ALOFT AND MAINLY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEST AND INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE POP FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AT LEAST INTO
JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE FURTHER ADDED IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW POP EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM LIMESTONE-
MADISON AND INTO MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ALABAMA FOR THIS EVENING. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREE RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
INITIALLY REMAINING ALOFT...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DRY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS MUCH AS 20 TO NEARLY
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE GETTING MORE IN LINE INVOLVING THE
TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE INVOLVING THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A ZONAL TYPE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING BY 00Z MONDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELS INVOLVING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AND EXPECT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW TO INITIALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION BY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER
TO LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO THE CHANGING MODEL
TRENDS...THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE HEAD
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING BRINGING IN SOME COLD
ADVECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
WINTRY MIX BETWEEN ESPECIALLY 06Z-12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE THE PRECIP
ENDS. THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND MILDER AND MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...TRAILING EDGE OF VERY LGT PCPN BAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EWD INTO NE ALABAMA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH NO LINGERING THREAT
FOR SNOW FLURRIES/GRAUPEL PELLETS AT EITHER MSL/HSV. OVC ALTOSTRATUS
DECK BASED ARND 8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD AS WELL...AND SHOULD
CLEAR THE HSV TERMINAL BY 11/06Z. SCT STRATOCU WILL BE PSBL OVERNIGHT
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY VEERS TO ESE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC
CYCLONE TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A REINFORCING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BACK TO NE AT BOTH
TERMINALS BY 18Z. COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTN...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 110009
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
609 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 312 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
THE 21Z VISIBLE/IR AND RADAR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP ALOFT AND MAINLY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEST AND INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE POP FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AT LEAST INTO
JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE FURTHER ADDED IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW POP EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM LIMESTONE-
MADISON AND INTO MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ALABAMA FOR THIS EVENING. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREE RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
INITIALLY REMAINING ALOFT...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DRY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS MUCH AS 20 TO NEARLY
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE GETTING MORE IN LINE INVOLVING THE
TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE INVOLVING THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A ZONAL TYPE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING BY 00Z MONDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELS INVOLVING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AND EXPECT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW TO INITIALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION BY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER
TO LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO THE CHANGING MODEL
TRENDS...THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE HEAD
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING BRINGING IN SOME COLD
ADVECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
WINTRY MIX BETWEEN ESPECIALLY 06Z-12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE THE PRECIP
ENDS. THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND MILDER AND MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...TRAILING EDGE OF VERY LGT PCPN BAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EWD INTO NE ALABAMA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH NO LINGERING THREAT
FOR SNOW FLURRIES/GRAUPEL PELLETS AT EITHER MSL/HSV. OVC ALTOSTRATUS
DECK BASED ARND 8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD AS WELL...AND SHOULD
CLEAR THE HSV TERMINAL BY 11/06Z. SCT STRATOCU WILL BE PSBL OVERNIGHT
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY VEERS TO ESE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC
CYCLONE TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A REINFORCING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BACK TO NE AT BOTH
TERMINALS BY 18Z. COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTN...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 110009
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
609 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 312 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
THE 21Z VISIBLE/IR AND RADAR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP ALOFT AND MAINLY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEST AND INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE POP FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AT LEAST INTO
JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE FURTHER ADDED IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW POP EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM LIMESTONE-
MADISON AND INTO MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ALABAMA FOR THIS EVENING. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREE RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
INITIALLY REMAINING ALOFT...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DRY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS MUCH AS 20 TO NEARLY
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE GETTING MORE IN LINE INVOLVING THE
TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE INVOLVING THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A ZONAL TYPE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING BY 00Z MONDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELS INVOLVING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AND EXPECT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW TO INITIALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION BY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER
TO LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO THE CHANGING MODEL
TRENDS...THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE HEAD
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING BRINGING IN SOME COLD
ADVECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
WINTRY MIX BETWEEN ESPECIALLY 06Z-12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE THE PRECIP
ENDS. THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND MILDER AND MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...TRAILING EDGE OF VERY LGT PCPN BAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EWD INTO NE ALABAMA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH NO LINGERING THREAT
FOR SNOW FLURRIES/GRAUPEL PELLETS AT EITHER MSL/HSV. OVC ALTOSTRATUS
DECK BASED ARND 8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD AS WELL...AND SHOULD
CLEAR THE HSV TERMINAL BY 11/06Z. SCT STRATOCU WILL BE PSBL OVERNIGHT
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY VEERS TO ESE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC
CYCLONE TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A REINFORCING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BACK TO NE AT BOTH
TERMINALS BY 18Z. COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTN...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 102359
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
559 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH
INTO THE GULF WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TOWARD OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT.
THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO ALLOW FOR QUICK
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO LEVEL OUT OR ONLY SLOWLY FALL LATE TONIGHT AS
THE SW FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS AROUND
30 WELL INLAND WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S CLOSE TO THE COAST. IF WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...THEN LOWS COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPING TO QUICKLY MODERATE TEMPS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
REGION. DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...NO RAIN AND FEW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. 34/JFB

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST AREA
IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THE TROF AXIS
SLIPS EAST TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF...WHILE
A COLD FRONT EASES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE BASED MOISTURE MODIFIES. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS AND THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES POINT TO
AN UPWARD PERCENTAGE OF FOG PROBABILITIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE PATTERN...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THE FRONT EASES
FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOOKING TO
COME THROUGH DRY...THE FRONT RECEIVES A STRONG SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES AND
COLD ADVECTION PROCESSES BRING A COOL DAY TO THE GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MARKEDLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH NUMBERS
RANGING FROM 50 TO 55 INTERIOR TO AROUND 57 ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES
(6 TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE). COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
SHORT TERM COMES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT TO A RANGE OF
27 TO 31 OVER THE INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 30S COAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE BY
MONDAY AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE OF SEEING RAIN BY
MONDAY...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MODE...WHETHER IT BEING
SHOWERS DOMINANT OR EQUAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEFINED AND SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN THE OTHER CAMP...THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST
SHOWING ITS LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN/MS AND AL LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...THEN EJECTING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
FIELDS IN THE ECMWF INCREASE ENOUGH AS TO POSE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE
THREAT IS GREATLY REDUCED. GIVEN THE SPREAD...WILL CALL FOR SHOWERS
TO BECOME LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MIXED IN.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON A SOLUTION.

DRIER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
COAST.

SUNDAY`S HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE MID 50S BEFORE
MODERATING A BIT INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWER
TO MID 60S FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY. FOR
LOWS...LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS EXPECTED. /10

MARINE...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE SOME
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS AND POTENTIALLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS (20KT) BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING...
BRINGING A ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
QUICKLY VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...
IMPACTING THE AREA ON MONDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 102359
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
559 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH
INTO THE GULF WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TOWARD OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT.
THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO ALLOW FOR QUICK
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO LEVEL OUT OR ONLY SLOWLY FALL LATE TONIGHT AS
THE SW FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS AROUND
30 WELL INLAND WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S CLOSE TO THE COAST. IF WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...THEN LOWS COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPING TO QUICKLY MODERATE TEMPS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
REGION. DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...NO RAIN AND FEW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. 34/JFB

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST AREA
IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THE TROF AXIS
SLIPS EAST TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF...WHILE
A COLD FRONT EASES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE BASED MOISTURE MODIFIES. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS AND THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES POINT TO
AN UPWARD PERCENTAGE OF FOG PROBABILITIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE PATTERN...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THE FRONT EASES
FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOOKING TO
COME THROUGH DRY...THE FRONT RECEIVES A STRONG SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES AND
COLD ADVECTION PROCESSES BRING A COOL DAY TO THE GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MARKEDLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH NUMBERS
RANGING FROM 50 TO 55 INTERIOR TO AROUND 57 ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES
(6 TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE). COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
SHORT TERM COMES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT TO A RANGE OF
27 TO 31 OVER THE INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 30S COAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE BY
MONDAY AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE OF SEEING RAIN BY
MONDAY...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MODE...WHETHER IT BEING
SHOWERS DOMINANT OR EQUAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEFINED AND SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN THE OTHER CAMP...THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST
SHOWING ITS LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN/MS AND AL LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...THEN EJECTING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
FIELDS IN THE ECMWF INCREASE ENOUGH AS TO POSE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE
THREAT IS GREATLY REDUCED. GIVEN THE SPREAD...WILL CALL FOR SHOWERS
TO BECOME LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MIXED IN.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON A SOLUTION.

DRIER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
COAST.

SUNDAY`S HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE MID 50S BEFORE
MODERATING A BIT INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWER
TO MID 60S FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY. FOR
LOWS...LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS EXPECTED. /10

MARINE...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE SOME
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS AND POTENTIALLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS (20KT) BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING...
BRINGING A ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
QUICKLY VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...
IMPACTING THE AREA ON MONDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 102359
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
559 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH
INTO THE GULF WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TOWARD OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT.
THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO ALLOW FOR QUICK
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO LEVEL OUT OR ONLY SLOWLY FALL LATE TONIGHT AS
THE SW FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS AROUND
30 WELL INLAND WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S CLOSE TO THE COAST. IF WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...THEN LOWS COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPING TO QUICKLY MODERATE TEMPS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
REGION. DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...NO RAIN AND FEW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. 34/JFB

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST AREA
IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THE TROF AXIS
SLIPS EAST TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF...WHILE
A COLD FRONT EASES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE BASED MOISTURE MODIFIES. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS AND THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES POINT TO
AN UPWARD PERCENTAGE OF FOG PROBABILITIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE PATTERN...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THE FRONT EASES
FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOOKING TO
COME THROUGH DRY...THE FRONT RECEIVES A STRONG SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES AND
COLD ADVECTION PROCESSES BRING A COOL DAY TO THE GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MARKEDLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH NUMBERS
RANGING FROM 50 TO 55 INTERIOR TO AROUND 57 ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES
(6 TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE). COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
SHORT TERM COMES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT TO A RANGE OF
27 TO 31 OVER THE INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 30S COAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE BY
MONDAY AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE OF SEEING RAIN BY
MONDAY...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MODE...WHETHER IT BEING
SHOWERS DOMINANT OR EQUAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEFINED AND SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN THE OTHER CAMP...THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST
SHOWING ITS LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN/MS AND AL LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...THEN EJECTING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
FIELDS IN THE ECMWF INCREASE ENOUGH AS TO POSE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE
THREAT IS GREATLY REDUCED. GIVEN THE SPREAD...WILL CALL FOR SHOWERS
TO BECOME LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MIXED IN.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON A SOLUTION.

DRIER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
COAST.

SUNDAY`S HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE MID 50S BEFORE
MODERATING A BIT INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWER
TO MID 60S FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY. FOR
LOWS...LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS EXPECTED. /10

MARINE...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE SOME
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS AND POTENTIALLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS (20KT) BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING...
BRINGING A ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
QUICKLY VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...
IMPACTING THE AREA ON MONDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KBMX 102148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
348 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

NICE SUNNY...ALBEIT COOL...DAY OUT THERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
WEST TN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE BUT THERE`S NOT MUCH
REACHING THE GROUND...PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES. MANY HIRES MODELS SHOW
THIS LIGHT PRECIP BAND MOVING INTO NE AL AROUND OR JUST BEFORE 00Z
THIS EVENING. THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO DON`T
BELIEVE WE`LL SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS MAINLY
CHEROKEE COUNTY...AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
THAT IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT
QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S
IN MOST AREAS...BUT THE WIND WON`T BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THE
ELEVATED WNW WINDS WE`VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL FINALLY
BE LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT.

19

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WELL TO OUR NORTH...A
MUCH STRONGER SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH BRISK NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY WILL FALL INTO THE
20S AREAWIDE.

HERE IS WHERE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT LEADING TO A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. IN ORDER TO NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH EACH MODEL
FLUCTUATION...WE WILL HOLD STEADY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR
NOW. AS WE KNOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
TEMPERATURE CAN MAKE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND/OR THUNDER POTENTIAL.

WITH A WEDGE SETTING UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND ITS
INTRUSION OF DRY AND COOL AIR...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FROZEN
PRECIP AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...THAT FROZEN PRECIP COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE HAS
BEEN A WARMING TREND WITH THE MODELS TODAY...THAT WOULD LESSEN THE
CHANCES OF FROZEN PRECIP...BUT...ALONG WITH A VARYING TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW...WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. OF NOTE...THE SHIFT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM COLD TO WARM
IS RATHER LARGE...SO LARGE THAT IT SEEMS TOO UNLIKELY. MOST
LIKELY IS A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE WILL OCCUR. UNFORTUNATELY...THAT
COULD PUT THE AREA IN ANOTHER BORDERLINE LIQUID/FROZEN PRECIP
SCENARIO FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THIS EVENT.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL MORE SHIFTS IN THE MODELS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THEY CONVERGE ON ONE SOLUTION. UNTIL THERE IS
AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE...GOING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WEATHER
GROUPS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. WNW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KTS THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE
RETURNS TOMORROW AS A DRY FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED BUT 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS. AFTER A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX...HOWEVER A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  52  29  53  28 /  10   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    25  54  30  55  30 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  28  56  32  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  28  60  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      29  58  34  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  58  37  59  35 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  29  64  38  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        29  66  40  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 102143
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH
INTO THE GULF WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TOWARD OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT.
THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO ALLOW FOR QUICK
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO LEVEL OUT OR ONLY SLOWLY FALL LATE TONIGHT AS
THE SW FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS AROUND
30 WELL INLAND WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S CLOSE TO THE COAST. IF WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...THEN LOWS COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPING TO QUICKLY MODERATE TEMPS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
REGION. DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...NO RAIN AND FEW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. 34/JFB

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST AREA
IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THE TROF AXIS
SLIPS EAST TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF...WHILE
A COLD FRONT EASES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE BASED MOISTURE MODIFIES. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS AND THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES POINT TO
AN UPWARD PERCENTAGE OF FOG PROBABILITIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE PATTERN...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THE FRONT EASES
FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOOKING TO
COME THROUGH DRY...THE FRONT RECEIVES A STRONG SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES AND
COLD ADVECTION PROCESSES BRING A COOL DAY TO THE GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MARKEDLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH NUMBERS
RANGING FROM 50 TO 55 INTERIOR TO AROUND 57 ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES
(6 TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE). COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
SHORT TERM COMES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT TO A RANGE OF
27 TO 31 OVER THE INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 30S COAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE BY
MONDAY AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE OF SEEING RAIN BY
MONDAY...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MODE...WHETHER IT BEING
SHOWERS DOMINANT OR EQUAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEFINED AND SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN THE OTHER CAMP...THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST
SHOWING ITS LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN/MS AND AL LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...THEN EJECTING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
FIELDS IN THE ECMWF INCREASE ENOUGH AS TO POSE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE
THREAT IS GREATLY REDUCED. GIVEN THE SPREAD...WILL CALL FOR SHOWERS
TO BECOME LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MIXED IN.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON A SOLUTION.

DRIER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
COAST.

SUNDAY`S HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE MID 50S BEFORE
MODERATING A BIT INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWER
TO MID 60S FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY. FOR
LOWS...LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS EXPECTED. /10


&&

.MARINE...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE SOME
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS AND POTENTIALLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS (20KT) BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING...
BRINGING A ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
QUICKLY VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...
IMPACTING THE AREA ON MONDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  70  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   41  68  53  68 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      43  66  55  67 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   31  70  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  32  70  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      30  67  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   31  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 102112
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 21Z VISIBLE/IR AND RADAR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP ALOFT AND MAINLY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEST AND INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE POP FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AT LEAST INTO
JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE FURTHER ADDED IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW POP EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM LIMESTONE-
MADISON AND INTO MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ALABAMA FOR THIS EVENING. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREE RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
INITIALLY REMAINING ALOFT...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DRY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS MUCH AS 20 TO NEARLY
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE GETTING MORE IN LINE INVOLVING THE
TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE INVOLVING THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A ZONAL TYPE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING BY 00Z MONDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELS INVOLVING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AND EXPECT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW TO INITIALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION BY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER
TO LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO THE CHANGING MODEL
TRENDS...THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE HEAD
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING BRINGING IN SOME COLD
ADVECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
WINTRY MIX BETWEEN ESPECIALLY 06Z-12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE THE PRECIP
ENDS. THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND MILDER AND MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1135 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR KHSV/KMSL TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTN...BUT BASES SHOULD BE AROUND 4-8
KFT THIS AFTN THRU TOMORROW. WNW WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES WILL TEND TO
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LGT/VRB WINDS LIKELY PREVAILING
AFTER 00-01Z.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    26  50  29  52 /  20   0   0  10
SHOALS        27  51  29  53 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      26  49  29  51 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  23  47  27  48 /  20   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   26  48  29  50 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    24  48  28  49 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 101804
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1204 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH...STILL MORE THAN TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UPWARDS OF 20-25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES BACK TO THE FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MORE DISCUSSION ON
THIS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. WNW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KTS THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY. WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN DRY OVERALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MUCH QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. WE JUST HAVE A FEW FLURRIES
STILL FALLING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...MAINLY CHEROKEE COUNTY. THESE
WILL BE EXITING BY 8 TO 9 AM THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WE WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE
WILL ALSO SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE. AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA...A WARM FRONT WILL
TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AGAIN WE WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

16

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF THURSDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FRIDAY
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING AND THUS NO RAIN EXPECTED WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. A COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO
ALABAMA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS
A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS (1046MB) LATE FRIDAY SWINGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY LATE SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WE STILL HAVE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...TIMING IS COMING INTO A BETTER
AGREEMENT. GFS TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER EURO
SOLUTION. STILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THIS
COULD CHANGE AND TREND TO MORE OF AN ALL RAIN SOLUTION. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX IN THE FAR NORTH FOR THE PRE DAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES BEFORE THE
DAYTIME WARM UP TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL RAIN AND THEN IN THE
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST COOLER READINGS WORK THEIR WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA AND COULD STILL SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE
NORTH BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS OF NOW IF THE EASTERN WEDGE MAKES IT
FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO PROHIBIT OUR WARM UP AND THUS WE END UP
WITH A GREATER WINTER THREAT. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
LOW...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER SCENARIO BUT WE STILL ARE SEVERAL
DAYS OUT.

LOOK FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND IT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  22  52  29  53 /  10  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    40  24  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  41  28  56  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  43  27  59  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      41  29  58  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      43  27  58  37  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  47  28  64  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        48  28  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 101804
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1204 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH...STILL MORE THAN TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UPWARDS OF 20-25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES BACK TO THE FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MORE DISCUSSION ON
THIS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. WNW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KTS THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY. WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN DRY OVERALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MUCH QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. WE JUST HAVE A FEW FLURRIES
STILL FALLING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...MAINLY CHEROKEE COUNTY. THESE
WILL BE EXITING BY 8 TO 9 AM THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WE WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE
WILL ALSO SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE. AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA...A WARM FRONT WILL
TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AGAIN WE WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

16

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF THURSDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FRIDAY
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING AND THUS NO RAIN EXPECTED WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. A COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO
ALABAMA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS
A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS (1046MB) LATE FRIDAY SWINGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY LATE SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WE STILL HAVE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...TIMING IS COMING INTO A BETTER
AGREEMENT. GFS TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER EURO
SOLUTION. STILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THIS
COULD CHANGE AND TREND TO MORE OF AN ALL RAIN SOLUTION. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX IN THE FAR NORTH FOR THE PRE DAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES BEFORE THE
DAYTIME WARM UP TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL RAIN AND THEN IN THE
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST COOLER READINGS WORK THEIR WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA AND COULD STILL SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE
NORTH BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS OF NOW IF THE EASTERN WEDGE MAKES IT
FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO PROHIBIT OUR WARM UP AND THUS WE END UP
WITH A GREATER WINTER THREAT. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
LOW...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER SCENARIO BUT WE STILL ARE SEVERAL
DAYS OUT.

LOOK FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND IT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  22  52  29  53 /  10  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    40  24  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  41  28  56  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  43  27  59  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      41  29  58  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      43  27  58  37  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  47  28  64  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        48  28  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 101804
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1204 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH...STILL MORE THAN TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UPWARDS OF 20-25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES BACK TO THE FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MORE DISCUSSION ON
THIS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. WNW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KTS THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY. WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN DRY OVERALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MUCH QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. WE JUST HAVE A FEW FLURRIES
STILL FALLING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...MAINLY CHEROKEE COUNTY. THESE
WILL BE EXITING BY 8 TO 9 AM THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WE WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE
WILL ALSO SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE. AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA...A WARM FRONT WILL
TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AGAIN WE WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

16

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF THURSDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FRIDAY
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING AND THUS NO RAIN EXPECTED WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. A COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO
ALABAMA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS
A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS (1046MB) LATE FRIDAY SWINGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY LATE SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WE STILL HAVE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...TIMING IS COMING INTO A BETTER
AGREEMENT. GFS TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER EURO
SOLUTION. STILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THIS
COULD CHANGE AND TREND TO MORE OF AN ALL RAIN SOLUTION. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX IN THE FAR NORTH FOR THE PRE DAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES BEFORE THE
DAYTIME WARM UP TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL RAIN AND THEN IN THE
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST COOLER READINGS WORK THEIR WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA AND COULD STILL SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE
NORTH BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS OF NOW IF THE EASTERN WEDGE MAKES IT
FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO PROHIBIT OUR WARM UP AND THUS WE END UP
WITH A GREATER WINTER THREAT. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
LOW...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER SCENARIO BUT WE STILL ARE SEVERAL
DAYS OUT.

LOOK FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND IT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  22  52  29  53 /  10  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    40  24  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  41  28  56  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  43  27  59  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      41  29  58  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      43  27  58  37  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  47  28  64  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        48  28  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 101736 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1136 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING IN SPEED TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING TO
10-15 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AND MARINE AREAS
BELOW.

UPDATE...GOOD MIXING IS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS DROPPING LOWER THAN
FORECAST FOR TODAY. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW UPPER SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY.
THIS BRINGS HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEEN TO LOWER 20
PERCENT RANGE. SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

FIRE WEATHER...BASED ON THE EXPECTED DRIER CONDITIONS WE HAVE SENT
AN UPDATE TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. WINDS AND ERC VALUES WILL
STILL FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.

MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THEREFORE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  A SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-
WEST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GULF AS A SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO NEAR THE ARKLATEX LATE TONIGHT.  AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA SWITCH
TO A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT.  THERE IS A MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN DURING THE PERIOD BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POPS AND A
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A CLOSED LOW MOVE THROUGH AN
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS ENERGY
MAINTAINS AND SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...ULTIMATELY PUSHING A FRONT TO NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT..MAINTAINING A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FA...THEN WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND ON FRIDAY. THIS KEEPS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVEL
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S.

/16

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...PUSHING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS RESTORES SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE FA BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
UNTIL THEN...COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA...COOLING THINS
OFF. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S COOL OFF TO THE LOWER 50S
SUNDAY. A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THEIR INTERPLAY AS THEY MOVE. THE
ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVING EAST OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS NOW ADVERTISING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
UPPER ENERGY AND WITH THAT...FORMING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TAKING IT EAST...WITH THE RESULT BEING A MORE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE AGAIN WENT
WITH A BLENDED APPROACH...KEEPING THE RAIN CENTERED ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THE RAIN...ADDING IN A BIT OF
THUNDER. TEMPS HAVE UNDERGONE A WARMING TREND THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...LOW TO MID 60S MONDAY.

TUESDAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE
FA...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE FA.

/16

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDE TODAY THEN
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.  THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES THURSDAY THEN BECOMES WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ADVANCES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE WEST...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 101735 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1135 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE AND FOR 12Z TAFS. ADJUSTED AFTN POPS/WX AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EVENT THAT DOESNT HAPPEN VERY OFTEN OCCURRED AGAIN
TODAY...LAKE/RIVER EFFECT SNOW! THESE FLURRIES DID NOT ACCUMULATE
HOWEVER. IT WAS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR COMING OFF OF WHEELER
LAKE AND THE TN RIVER. AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY...THE
FETCH WILL NO LONGER BE FAVORABLE AND END THE EVENT.

CLOUD COVER...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES STILL LINGER IN
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
DROP...IT WILL BE HARDER FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...LEFT FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT. QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS IF THE PRECIP WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH THE SFC DRY LAYER EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FLURRIES.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR KHSV/KMSL TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTN...BUT BASES SHOULD BE AROUND 4-8
KFT THIS AFTN THRU TOMORROW. WNW WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES WILL TEND TO
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LGT/VRB WINDS LIKELY PREVAILING
AFTER 00-01Z.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 101600 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AND MARINE AREAS
BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...GOOD MIXING IS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS DROPPING LOWER THAN
FORECAST FOR TODAY. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW UPPER SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY.
THIS BRINGS HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEEN TO LOWER 20
PERCENT RANGE. SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BASED ON THE EXPECTED DRIER CONDITIONS WE HAVE SENT
AN UPDATE TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. WINDS AND ERC VALUES WILL
STILL FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THEREFORE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  A SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-
WEST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GULF AS A SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO NEAR THE ARKLATEX LATE TONIGHT.  AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA SWITCH
TO A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT.  THERE IS A MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN DURING THE PERIOD BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POPS AND A
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A CLOSED LOW MOVE THROUGH AN
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS ENERGY
MAINTAINS AND SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...ULTIMATELY PUSHING A FRONT TO NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT..MAINTAINING A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FA...THEN WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND ON FRIDAY. THIS KEEPS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVEL
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S.

/16

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...PUSHING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS RESTORES SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE FA BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
UNTIL THEN...COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA...COOLING THINS
OFF. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S COOL OFF TO THE LOWER 50S
SUNDAY. A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THEIR INTERPLAY AS THEY MOVE. THE
ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVING EAST OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS NOW ADVERTISING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
UPPER ENERGY AND WITH THAT...FORMING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TAKING IT EAST...WITH THE RESULT BEING A MORE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE AGAIN WENT
WITH A BLENDED APPROACH...KEEPING THE RAIN CENTERED ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THE RAIN...ADDING IN A BIT OF
THUNDER. TEMPS HAVE UNDERGONE A WARMING TREND THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...LOW TO MID 60S MONDAY.

TUESDAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE
FA...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE FA.

/16

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDE TODAY THEN
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.  THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES THURSDAY THEN BECOMES WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ADVANCES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE WEST...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 101334 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
734 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SNOW SHOWERS IN NE AREAS FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
STRETCHING NW-SE FROM MIDDLE TN INTO EXTREME NE ALABAMA. THIS BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY INTACT AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE SLOWLY S-SEWRD. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME BRIEF MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT BRIEF DUSTING OF THE
GROUND IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND PERHAPS
EXTREME NE PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE BELOW ONE HALF
INCH.

UPDATES OUT MOMENTARILY.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...BKN 4-5KFT CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL IMPACT
KHSV BY 12-13ZZ BUT PROBABLY WILL JUST BE FEW-SCT WHEN IT IMPACTS
KMSL. MAY CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THESE TRANSITIONS SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10KT AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES OVER OUR EXTREME NERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TEMPS AT 300 AM WERE MAINLY ARND 20 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AT 5H GOOD NW FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
MRNG MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER BY THE
AFTN A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST NE OF THE TN VALLEY.
ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BUT WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY THE AFTN. TODAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE MID 30S. FOR TONIGHT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS MAY LAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD KEEP THURSDAY`S MRNG LOWS A LITTLE
WARMER (MID 20S) THAN THIS MRNG LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
LITTLE WARMER AFTN HIGHS (ARND 50).

LOOKS LIKE BY FRIDAY A DRY CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE COLD (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S) BUT DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...HOLD ON TO YOUR HAT HERE COMES ANOTHER POSSIBLE
WINTER WX EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MRNG. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A CDFNT TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD
CHC OF PCPN. ATTM GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT RA/SN/SLEET
MIX BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...BUT
ALSO CANT RULE OUT A LITTLE FREEZING RA. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SVR WX WITH THIS CDFNT. ANYHOW SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST
TIMING AND PCPN TYPE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE
CDFNT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TAKING THE
PCPN WITH IT.

TUESDAY...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CDFNT AS AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 101334 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
734 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SNOW SHOWERS IN NE AREAS FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
STRETCHING NW-SE FROM MIDDLE TN INTO EXTREME NE ALABAMA. THIS BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY INTACT AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE SLOWLY S-SEWRD. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME BRIEF MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT BRIEF DUSTING OF THE
GROUND IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND PERHAPS
EXTREME NE PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE BELOW ONE HALF
INCH.

UPDATES OUT MOMENTARILY.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...BKN 4-5KFT CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL IMPACT
KHSV BY 12-13ZZ BUT PROBABLY WILL JUST BE FEW-SCT WHEN IT IMPACTS
KMSL. MAY CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THESE TRANSITIONS SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10KT AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES OVER OUR EXTREME NERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TEMPS AT 300 AM WERE MAINLY ARND 20 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AT 5H GOOD NW FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
MRNG MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER BY THE
AFTN A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST NE OF THE TN VALLEY.
ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BUT WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY THE AFTN. TODAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE MID 30S. FOR TONIGHT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS MAY LAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD KEEP THURSDAY`S MRNG LOWS A LITTLE
WARMER (MID 20S) THAN THIS MRNG LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
LITTLE WARMER AFTN HIGHS (ARND 50).

LOOKS LIKE BY FRIDAY A DRY CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE COLD (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S) BUT DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...HOLD ON TO YOUR HAT HERE COMES ANOTHER POSSIBLE
WINTER WX EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MRNG. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A CDFNT TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD
CHC OF PCPN. ATTM GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT RA/SN/SLEET
MIX BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...BUT
ALSO CANT RULE OUT A LITTLE FREEZING RA. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SVR WX WITH THIS CDFNT. ANYHOW SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST
TIMING AND PCPN TYPE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE
CDFNT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TAKING THE
PCPN WITH IT.

TUESDAY...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CDFNT AS AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 101334 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
734 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SNOW SHOWERS IN NE AREAS FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
STRETCHING NW-SE FROM MIDDLE TN INTO EXTREME NE ALABAMA. THIS BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY INTACT AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE SLOWLY S-SEWRD. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME BRIEF MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT BRIEF DUSTING OF THE
GROUND IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND PERHAPS
EXTREME NE PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE BELOW ONE HALF
INCH.

UPDATES OUT MOMENTARILY.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...BKN 4-5KFT CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL IMPACT
KHSV BY 12-13ZZ BUT PROBABLY WILL JUST BE FEW-SCT WHEN IT IMPACTS
KMSL. MAY CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THESE TRANSITIONS SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10KT AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES OVER OUR EXTREME NERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TEMPS AT 300 AM WERE MAINLY ARND 20 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AT 5H GOOD NW FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
MRNG MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER BY THE
AFTN A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST NE OF THE TN VALLEY.
ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BUT WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY THE AFTN. TODAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE MID 30S. FOR TONIGHT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS MAY LAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD KEEP THURSDAY`S MRNG LOWS A LITTLE
WARMER (MID 20S) THAN THIS MRNG LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
LITTLE WARMER AFTN HIGHS (ARND 50).

LOOKS LIKE BY FRIDAY A DRY CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE COLD (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S) BUT DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...HOLD ON TO YOUR HAT HERE COMES ANOTHER POSSIBLE
WINTER WX EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MRNG. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A CDFNT TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD
CHC OF PCPN. ATTM GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT RA/SN/SLEET
MIX BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...BUT
ALSO CANT RULE OUT A LITTLE FREEZING RA. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SVR WX WITH THIS CDFNT. ANYHOW SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST
TIMING AND PCPN TYPE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE
CDFNT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TAKING THE
PCPN WITH IT.

TUESDAY...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CDFNT AS AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 101334 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
734 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SNOW SHOWERS IN NE AREAS FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
STRETCHING NW-SE FROM MIDDLE TN INTO EXTREME NE ALABAMA. THIS BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY INTACT AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE SLOWLY S-SEWRD. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME BRIEF MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT BRIEF DUSTING OF THE
GROUND IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND PERHAPS
EXTREME NE PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE BELOW ONE HALF
INCH.

UPDATES OUT MOMENTARILY.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...BKN 4-5KFT CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL IMPACT
KHSV BY 12-13ZZ BUT PROBABLY WILL JUST BE FEW-SCT WHEN IT IMPACTS
KMSL. MAY CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THESE TRANSITIONS SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10KT AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES OVER OUR EXTREME NERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TEMPS AT 300 AM WERE MAINLY ARND 20 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AT 5H GOOD NW FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
MRNG MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER BY THE
AFTN A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST NE OF THE TN VALLEY.
ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BUT WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY THE AFTN. TODAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE MID 30S. FOR TONIGHT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS MAY LAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD KEEP THURSDAY`S MRNG LOWS A LITTLE
WARMER (MID 20S) THAN THIS MRNG LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
LITTLE WARMER AFTN HIGHS (ARND 50).

LOOKS LIKE BY FRIDAY A DRY CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE COLD (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S) BUT DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...HOLD ON TO YOUR HAT HERE COMES ANOTHER POSSIBLE
WINTER WX EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MRNG. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A CDFNT TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD
CHC OF PCPN. ATTM GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT RA/SN/SLEET
MIX BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...BUT
ALSO CANT RULE OUT A LITTLE FREEZING RA. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SVR WX WITH THIS CDFNT. ANYHOW SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST
TIMING AND PCPN TYPE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE
CDFNT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TAKING THE
PCPN WITH IT.

TUESDAY...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CDFNT AS AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 101334 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
734 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SNOW SHOWERS IN NE AREAS FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
STRETCHING NW-SE FROM MIDDLE TN INTO EXTREME NE ALABAMA. THIS BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY INTACT AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE SLOWLY S-SEWRD. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME BRIEF MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT BRIEF DUSTING OF THE
GROUND IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND PERHAPS
EXTREME NE PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE BELOW ONE HALF
INCH.

UPDATES OUT MOMENTARILY.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...BKN 4-5KFT CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL IMPACT
KHSV BY 12-13ZZ BUT PROBABLY WILL JUST BE FEW-SCT WHEN IT IMPACTS
KMSL. MAY CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THESE TRANSITIONS SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10KT AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES OVER OUR EXTREME NERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TEMPS AT 300 AM WERE MAINLY ARND 20 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AT 5H GOOD NW FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
MRNG MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER BY THE
AFTN A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST NE OF THE TN VALLEY.
ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BUT WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY THE AFTN. TODAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE MID 30S. FOR TONIGHT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS MAY LAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD KEEP THURSDAY`S MRNG LOWS A LITTLE
WARMER (MID 20S) THAN THIS MRNG LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
LITTLE WARMER AFTN HIGHS (ARND 50).

LOOKS LIKE BY FRIDAY A DRY CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE COLD (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S) BUT DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...HOLD ON TO YOUR HAT HERE COMES ANOTHER POSSIBLE
WINTER WX EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MRNG. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A CDFNT TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD
CHC OF PCPN. ATTM GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT RA/SN/SLEET
MIX BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...BUT
ALSO CANT RULE OUT A LITTLE FREEZING RA. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SVR WX WITH THIS CDFNT. ANYHOW SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST
TIMING AND PCPN TYPE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE
CDFNT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TAKING THE
PCPN WITH IT.

TUESDAY...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CDFNT AS AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 101132
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES OVER OUR EXTREME NERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TEMPS AT 300 AM WERE MAINLY ARND 20 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AT 5H GOOD NW FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
MRNG MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER BY THE
AFTN A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST NE OF THE TN VALLEY.
ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BUT WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY THE AFTN. TODAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE MID 30S. FOR TONIGHT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS MAY LAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD KEEP THURSDAY`S MRNG LOWS A LITTLE
WARMER (MID 20S) THAN THIS MRNG LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
LITTLE WARMER AFTN HIGHS (ARND 50).

LOOKS LIKE BY FRIDAY A DRY CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE COLD (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S) BUT DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...HOLD ON TO YOUR HAT HERE COMES ANOTHER POSSIBLE
WINTER WX EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MRNG. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A CDFNT TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD
CHC OF PCPN. ATTM GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT RA/SN/SLEET
MIX BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...BUT
ALSO CANT RULE OUT A LITTLE FREEZING RA. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SVR WX WITH THIS CDFNT. ANYHOW SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST
TIMING AND PCPN TYPE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE
CDFNT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TAKING THE
PCPN WITH IT.

TUESDAY...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CDFNT AS AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...BKN 4-5KFT CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL IMPACT
KHSV BY 12-13ZZ BUT PROBABLY WILL JUST BE FEW-SCT WHEN IT IMPACTS
KMSL. MAY CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THESE TRANSITIONS SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10KT AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 101132
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES OVER OUR EXTREME NERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TEMPS AT 300 AM WERE MAINLY ARND 20 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AT 5H GOOD NW FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
MRNG MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER BY THE
AFTN A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST NE OF THE TN VALLEY.
ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BUT WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY THE AFTN. TODAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE MID 30S. FOR TONIGHT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS MAY LAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD KEEP THURSDAY`S MRNG LOWS A LITTLE
WARMER (MID 20S) THAN THIS MRNG LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
LITTLE WARMER AFTN HIGHS (ARND 50).

LOOKS LIKE BY FRIDAY A DRY CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE COLD (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S) BUT DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...HOLD ON TO YOUR HAT HERE COMES ANOTHER POSSIBLE
WINTER WX EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MRNG. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A CDFNT TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD
CHC OF PCPN. ATTM GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT RA/SN/SLEET
MIX BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...BUT
ALSO CANT RULE OUT A LITTLE FREEZING RA. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SVR WX WITH THIS CDFNT. ANYHOW SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST
TIMING AND PCPN TYPE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE
CDFNT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TAKING THE
PCPN WITH IT.

TUESDAY...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CDFNT AS AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...BKN 4-5KFT CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL IMPACT
KHSV BY 12-13ZZ BUT PROBABLY WILL JUST BE FEW-SCT WHEN IT IMPACTS
KMSL. MAY CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THESE TRANSITIONS SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10KT AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 101125 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
525 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  A SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-
WEST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GULF AS A SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO NEAR THE ARKLATEX LATE TONIGHT.  AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA SWITCH
TO A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT.  THERE IS A MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN DURING THE PERIOD BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POPS AND A
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A CLOSED LOW MOVE THROUGH AN
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS ENERGY
MAINTAINS AND SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...ULTIMATELY PUSHING A FRONT TO NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT..MAINTAINING A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FA...THEN WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND ON FRIDAY. THIS KEEPS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVEL
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S.

/16

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...PUSHING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS RESTORES SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE FA BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
UNTIL THEN...COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA...COOLING THINS
OFF. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S COOL OFF TO THE LOWER 50S
SUNDAY. A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THEIR INTERPLAY AS THEY MOVE. THE
ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVING EAST OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS NOW ADVERTISING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
UPPER ENERGY AND WITH THAT...FORMING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TAKING IT EAST...WITH THE RESULT BEING A MORE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE AGAIN WENT
WITH A BLENDED APPROACH...KEEPING THE RAIN CENTERED ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THE RAIN...ADDING IN A BIT OF
THUNDER. TEMPS HAVE UNDERGONE A WARMING TREND THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...LOW TO MID 60S MONDAY.

TUESDAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE
FA...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE FA.

/16

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDE TODAY THEN
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.  THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES THURSDAY THEN BECOMES WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ADVANCES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE WEST...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 101125 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
525 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  A SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-
WEST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GULF AS A SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO NEAR THE ARKLATEX LATE TONIGHT.  AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA SWITCH
TO A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT.  THERE IS A MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN DURING THE PERIOD BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POPS AND A
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A CLOSED LOW MOVE THROUGH AN
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS ENERGY
MAINTAINS AND SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...ULTIMATELY PUSHING A FRONT TO NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT..MAINTAINING A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FA...THEN WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND ON FRIDAY. THIS KEEPS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVEL
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S.

/16

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...PUSHING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS RESTORES SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE FA BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
UNTIL THEN...COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA...COOLING THINS
OFF. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S COOL OFF TO THE LOWER 50S
SUNDAY. A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THEIR INTERPLAY AS THEY MOVE. THE
ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVING EAST OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS NOW ADVERTISING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
UPPER ENERGY AND WITH THAT...FORMING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TAKING IT EAST...WITH THE RESULT BEING A MORE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE AGAIN WENT
WITH A BLENDED APPROACH...KEEPING THE RAIN CENTERED ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THE RAIN...ADDING IN A BIT OF
THUNDER. TEMPS HAVE UNDERGONE A WARMING TREND THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...LOW TO MID 60S MONDAY.

TUESDAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE
FA...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE FA.

/16

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDE TODAY THEN
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.  THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES THURSDAY THEN BECOMES WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ADVANCES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE WEST...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 101125 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
525 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  A SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-
WEST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GULF AS A SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO NEAR THE ARKLATEX LATE TONIGHT.  AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA SWITCH
TO A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT.  THERE IS A MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN DURING THE PERIOD BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POPS AND A
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A CLOSED LOW MOVE THROUGH AN
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS ENERGY
MAINTAINS AND SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...ULTIMATELY PUSHING A FRONT TO NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT..MAINTAINING A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FA...THEN WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND ON FRIDAY. THIS KEEPS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVEL
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S.

/16

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...PUSHING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS RESTORES SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE FA BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
UNTIL THEN...COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA...COOLING THINS
OFF. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S COOL OFF TO THE LOWER 50S
SUNDAY. A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THEIR INTERPLAY AS THEY MOVE. THE
ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVING EAST OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS NOW ADVERTISING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
UPPER ENERGY AND WITH THAT...FORMING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TAKING IT EAST...WITH THE RESULT BEING A MORE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE AGAIN WENT
WITH A BLENDED APPROACH...KEEPING THE RAIN CENTERED ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THE RAIN...ADDING IN A BIT OF
THUNDER. TEMPS HAVE UNDERGONE A WARMING TREND THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...LOW TO MID 60S MONDAY.

TUESDAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE
FA...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE FA.

/16

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDE TODAY THEN
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.  THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES THURSDAY THEN BECOMES WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ADVANCES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE WEST...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KBMX 101111
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
511 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MUCH QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. WE JUST HAVE A FEW FLURRIES
STILL FALLING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...MAINLY CHEROKEE COUNTY. THESE
WILL BE EXITING BY 8 TO 9 AM THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WE WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE
WILL ALSO SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE. AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA...A WARM FRONT WILL
TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AGAIN WE WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

16

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF THURSDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FRIDAY
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING AND THUS NO RAIN EXPECTED WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. A COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO
ALABAMA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS
A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS (1046MB) LATE FRIDAY SWINGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY LATE SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WE STILL HAVE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...TIMING IS COMING INTO A BETTER
AGREEMENT. GFS TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER EURO
SOLUTION. STILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THIS
COULD CHANGE AND TREND TO MORE OF AN ALL RAIN SOLUTION. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX IN THE FAR NORTH FOR THE PRE DAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES BEFORE THE
DAYTIME WARM UP TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL RAIN AND THEN IN THE
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST COOLER READINGS WORK THEIR WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA AND COULD STILL SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE
NORTH BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS OF NOW IF THE EASTERN WEDGE MAKES IT
FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO PROHIBIT OUR WARM UP AND THUS WE END UP
WITH A GREATER WINTER THREAT. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
LOW...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER SCENARIO BUT WE STILL ARE SEVERAL
DAYS OUT.

LOOK FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND IT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE AREA
WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY. WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN DRY OVERALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  22  52  29  53 /  10   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    40  24  54  30  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  41  28  56  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  43  27  59  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      41  29  58  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      43  27  58  37  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  47  28  64  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        48  28  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 101111
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
511 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MUCH QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. WE JUST HAVE A FEW FLURRIES
STILL FALLING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...MAINLY CHEROKEE COUNTY. THESE
WILL BE EXITING BY 8 TO 9 AM THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WE WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE
WILL ALSO SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE. AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA...A WARM FRONT WILL
TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AGAIN WE WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

16

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF THURSDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FRIDAY
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING AND THUS NO RAIN EXPECTED WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. A COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO
ALABAMA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS
A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS (1046MB) LATE FRIDAY SWINGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY LATE SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WE STILL HAVE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...TIMING IS COMING INTO A BETTER
AGREEMENT. GFS TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER EURO
SOLUTION. STILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THIS
COULD CHANGE AND TREND TO MORE OF AN ALL RAIN SOLUTION. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX IN THE FAR NORTH FOR THE PRE DAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES BEFORE THE
DAYTIME WARM UP TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL RAIN AND THEN IN THE
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST COOLER READINGS WORK THEIR WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA AND COULD STILL SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE
NORTH BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS OF NOW IF THE EASTERN WEDGE MAKES IT
FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO PROHIBIT OUR WARM UP AND THUS WE END UP
WITH A GREATER WINTER THREAT. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
LOW...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER SCENARIO BUT WE STILL ARE SEVERAL
DAYS OUT.

LOOK FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND IT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE AREA
WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY. WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN DRY OVERALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  22  52  29  53 /  10   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    40  24  54  30  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  41  28  56  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  43  27  59  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      41  29  58  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      43  27  58  37  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  47  28  64  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        48  28  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 101023
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
423 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  A SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-
WEST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GULF AS A SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO NEAR THE ARKLATEX LATE TONIGHT.  AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA SWITCH
TO A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT.  THERE IS A MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN DURING THE PERIOD BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POPS AND A
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A CLOSED LOW MOVE THROUGH AN
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS ENERGY
MAINTAINS AND SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...ULTIMATELY PUSHING A FRONT TO NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT..MAINTAINING A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FA...THEN WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND ON FRIDAY. THIS KEEPS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVEL
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S.

/16

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...PUSHING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS RESTORES SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE FA BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
UNTIL THEN...COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA...COOLING THINS
OFF. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S COOL OFF TO THE LOWER 50S
SUNDAY. A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THEIR INTERPLAY AS THEY MOVE. THE
ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVING EAST OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS NOW ADVERTISING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
UPPER ENERGY AND WITH THAT...FORMING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TAKING IT EAST...WITH THE RESULT BEING A MORE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE AGAIN WENT
WITH A BLENDED APPROACH...KEEPING THE RAIN CENTERED ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THE RAIN...ADDING IN A BIT OF
THUNDER. TEMPS HAVE UNDERGONE A WARMING TREND THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...LOW TO MID 60S MONDAY.

TUESDAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE
FA...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE FA.

/16

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDE TODAY THEN
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.  THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES THURSDAY THEN BECOMES WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ADVANCES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE WEST...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  38  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   53  40  68  52 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      52  42  66  54 /   0   0   0  10
EVERGREEN   50  30  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  50  29  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      48  30  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
CRESTVIEW   52  31  71  47 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 100958
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MUCH QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. WE JUST HAVE A FEW FLURRIES
STILL FALLING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...MAINLY CHEROKEE COUNTY. THESE
WILL BE EXITING BY 8 TO 9 AM THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WE WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE
WILL ALSO SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE. AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA...A WARM FRONT WILL
TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AGAIN WE WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

16

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF THURSDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FRIDAY
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING AND THUS NO RAIN EXPECTED WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. A COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO
ALABAMA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS
A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS (1046MB) LATE FRIDAY SWINGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY LATE SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WE STILL HAVE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...TIMING IS COMING INTO A BETTER
AGREEMENT. GFS TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER EURO
SOLUTION. STILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THIS
COULD CHANGE AND TREND TO MORE OF AN ALL RAIN SOLUTION. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX IN THE FAR NORTH FOR THE PRE DAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES BEFORE THE
DAYTIME WARM UP TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL RAIN AND THEN IN THE
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST COOLER READINGS WORK THEIR WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA AND COULD STILL SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE
NORTH BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS OF NOW IF THE EASTERN WEDGE MAKES IT
FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO PROHIBIT OUR WARM UP AND THUS WE END UP
WITH A GREATER WINTER THREAT. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
LOW...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER SCENARIO BUT WE STILL ARE SEVERAL
DAYS OUT.

LOOK FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND IT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WHAT FEW CLOUDS ARE REMAINING NEAR ANB WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.
SOME WNW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY. WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN DRY OVERALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  22  52  29  53 /  10   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    40  24  54  30  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  41  28  56  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  43  27  59  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      41  29  58  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      43  27  58  37  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  47  28  64  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        48  28  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

16/08/88




000
FXUS64 KHUN 100923
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES OVER OUR EXTREME NERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TEMPS AT 300 AM WERE MAINLY ARND 20 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AT 5H GOOD NW FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
MRNG MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER BY THE
AFTN A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST NE OF THE TN VALLEY.
ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BUT WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY THE AFTN. TODAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE MID 30S. FOR TONIGHT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS MAY LAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD KEEP THURSDAY`S MRNG LOWS A LITTLE
WARMER (MID 20S) THAN THIS MRNG LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
LITTLE WARMER AFTN HIGHS (ARND 50).

LOOKS LIKE BY FRIDAY A DRY CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE COLD (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S) BUT DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...HOLD ON TO YOUR HAT HERE COMES ANOTHER POSSIBLE
WINTER WX EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MRNG. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A CDFNT TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD
CHC OF PCPN. ATTM GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT RA/SN/SLEET
MIX BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...BUT
ALSO CANT RULE OUT A LITTLE FREEZING RA. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SVR WX WITH THIS CDFNT. ANYHOW SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST
TIMING AND PCPN TYPE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE
CDFNT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TAKING THE
PCPN WITH IT.

TUESDAY...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CDFNT AS AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BUT ALL PRECIP IS CLEAR OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 05Z. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOME MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ALABAMA BUT BASED ON
TRENDS THESE SHOULD CLEAR TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEAVING
ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A W/NW DIRECTION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OVER 10KTS AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF
18KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME BRIEF
FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE CLOUDS BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    36  26  50  29 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        37  27  51  29 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      36  26  49  29 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  34  23  47  27 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   35  26  48  29 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    34  24  48  28 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 100545
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 941 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
REGIONAL RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SOURCE OF LIFT SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
MOST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF THE HUNTSVILLE
METRO. WITH THESE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SOME LOCATIONS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NE AL AND S MIDDLE TN MAY PICK UP A VERY LIGHT DUSTING BUT
MOST LOCATIONS ARE DOWN WITH SNOWFALL FOR THE NIGHT. THERE MIGHT BE
A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES IN OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BUT BELIEVE THAT BY MIDNIGHT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR
AREA. ADJUSTED THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE THINKING
ABOVE.

THE CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT FROM THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER
TO THE EXPECTED BLACK ICE ON AREA ROADS. ANY OF THE WATER THAT WAS ON
THE ROADS HAS STARTED TO FREEZE AND WILL LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON
THE ROADS TONIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE TODAY. A
FEW REPORTS HAVE COME IN ALREADY THIS EVENING FROM JACKSON AND DEKALB
ABOUT ICE ON THE ROADS. CAUTION IS ADVISED TO ANYONE WHO WILL BE OUT
TRAVELING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES TEMPS TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED TO THE WEST
BUT THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW HAS KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THEN MOST AREAS WILL BE CLOUD FREE. WITH NO CLOUDS IN PLACE TO
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT THE MAIN INFLUENCES ON THE TEMPS
WILL BE DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE
TEENS BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MO/TN SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THESE LOW VALUES SHOULD BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT THE NW. BUT IN ORDER FOR TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE DEWPOINT TONIGHT WE WOULD NEED FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BREEZE, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
THINGS MIXED JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MORE WIND SHELTERED AREAS COULD
SEE TEMPS CLOSE IN ON THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE BUT THIS SHOULD BE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO MID TO
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER, WITH THE SLIGHT BREEZE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IT
WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER BRISK WIND CHILLS WITH VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WILL WATCH THE TEMP TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
SEE IF ANY MORE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BUT ALL PRECIP IS CLEAR OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 05Z. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOME MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ALABAMA BUT BASED ON
TRENDS THESE SHOULD CLEAR TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEAVING
ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A W/NW DIRECTION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OVER 10KTS AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF
18KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME BRIEF
FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE CLOUDS BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ008>010.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 100545
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 941 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
REGIONAL RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SOURCE OF LIFT SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
MOST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF THE HUNTSVILLE
METRO. WITH THESE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SOME LOCATIONS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NE AL AND S MIDDLE TN MAY PICK UP A VERY LIGHT DUSTING BUT
MOST LOCATIONS ARE DOWN WITH SNOWFALL FOR THE NIGHT. THERE MIGHT BE
A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES IN OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BUT BELIEVE THAT BY MIDNIGHT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR
AREA. ADJUSTED THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE THINKING
ABOVE.

THE CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT FROM THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER
TO THE EXPECTED BLACK ICE ON AREA ROADS. ANY OF THE WATER THAT WAS ON
THE ROADS HAS STARTED TO FREEZE AND WILL LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON
THE ROADS TONIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE TODAY. A
FEW REPORTS HAVE COME IN ALREADY THIS EVENING FROM JACKSON AND DEKALB
ABOUT ICE ON THE ROADS. CAUTION IS ADVISED TO ANYONE WHO WILL BE OUT
TRAVELING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES TEMPS TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED TO THE WEST
BUT THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW HAS KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THEN MOST AREAS WILL BE CLOUD FREE. WITH NO CLOUDS IN PLACE TO
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT THE MAIN INFLUENCES ON THE TEMPS
WILL BE DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE
TEENS BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MO/TN SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THESE LOW VALUES SHOULD BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT THE NW. BUT IN ORDER FOR TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE DEWPOINT TONIGHT WE WOULD NEED FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BREEZE, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
THINGS MIXED JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MORE WIND SHELTERED AREAS COULD
SEE TEMPS CLOSE IN ON THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE BUT THIS SHOULD BE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO MID TO
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER, WITH THE SLIGHT BREEZE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IT
WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER BRISK WIND CHILLS WITH VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WILL WATCH THE TEMP TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
SEE IF ANY MORE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BUT ALL PRECIP IS CLEAR OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 05Z. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOME MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ALABAMA BUT BASED ON
TRENDS THESE SHOULD CLEAR TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEAVING
ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A W/NW DIRECTION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OVER 10KTS AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF
18KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME BRIEF
FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE CLOUDS BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ008>010.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 100545
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 941 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
REGIONAL RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SOURCE OF LIFT SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
MOST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF THE HUNTSVILLE
METRO. WITH THESE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SOME LOCATIONS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NE AL AND S MIDDLE TN MAY PICK UP A VERY LIGHT DUSTING BUT
MOST LOCATIONS ARE DOWN WITH SNOWFALL FOR THE NIGHT. THERE MIGHT BE
A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES IN OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BUT BELIEVE THAT BY MIDNIGHT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR
AREA. ADJUSTED THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE THINKING
ABOVE.

THE CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT FROM THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER
TO THE EXPECTED BLACK ICE ON AREA ROADS. ANY OF THE WATER THAT WAS ON
THE ROADS HAS STARTED TO FREEZE AND WILL LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON
THE ROADS TONIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE TODAY. A
FEW REPORTS HAVE COME IN ALREADY THIS EVENING FROM JACKSON AND DEKALB
ABOUT ICE ON THE ROADS. CAUTION IS ADVISED TO ANYONE WHO WILL BE OUT
TRAVELING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES TEMPS TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED TO THE WEST
BUT THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW HAS KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THEN MOST AREAS WILL BE CLOUD FREE. WITH NO CLOUDS IN PLACE TO
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT THE MAIN INFLUENCES ON THE TEMPS
WILL BE DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE
TEENS BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MO/TN SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THESE LOW VALUES SHOULD BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT THE NW. BUT IN ORDER FOR TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE DEWPOINT TONIGHT WE WOULD NEED FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BREEZE, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
THINGS MIXED JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MORE WIND SHELTERED AREAS COULD
SEE TEMPS CLOSE IN ON THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE BUT THIS SHOULD BE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO MID TO
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER, WITH THE SLIGHT BREEZE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IT
WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER BRISK WIND CHILLS WITH VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WILL WATCH THE TEMP TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
SEE IF ANY MORE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BUT ALL PRECIP IS CLEAR OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 05Z. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOME MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ALABAMA BUT BASED ON
TRENDS THESE SHOULD CLEAR TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEAVING
ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A W/NW DIRECTION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OVER 10KTS AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF
18KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME BRIEF
FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE CLOUDS BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ008>010.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 100540
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE UPDATE...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS THIS EVENING. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...AND HAVE OPTED TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND SOUNDS. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE
FLOW TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER MOBILE BAY AND THE
MS SOUND LATER TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP SCEC HEADLINES IN PLACE THERE.
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. SOME GUSTS AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

UPDATE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND AN UPDATED
FORECAST WAS SENT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 100540
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE UPDATE...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS THIS EVENING. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...AND HAVE OPTED TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND SOUNDS. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE
FLOW TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER MOBILE BAY AND THE
MS SOUND LATER TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP SCEC HEADLINES IN PLACE THERE.
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. SOME GUSTS AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

UPDATE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND AN UPDATED
FORECAST WAS SENT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KMOB 100540
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE UPDATE...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS THIS EVENING. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...AND HAVE OPTED TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND SOUNDS. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE
FLOW TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER MOBILE BAY AND THE
MS SOUND LATER TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP SCEC HEADLINES IN PLACE THERE.
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. SOME GUSTS AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

UPDATE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND AN UPDATED
FORECAST WAS SENT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 100525
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1125 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE`VE STILL GOT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OUT THERE THIS
EVENING ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. MOST RETURNS
ARE VERY LIGHT...AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THIS ACTIVITY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AS WE`RE
NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST THIS EVENING
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. THAT`S PUSHING THE WIND
CHILL VALUES WELL DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT THIS
HOUR. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRODUCE DOWNRIGHT
FRIGID CONDITIONS OUTSIDE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. MIDDLE 20S CAN BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...AND THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUING FOR ONE
MORE DAY.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WHAT FEW CLOUDS ARE REMAINING NEAR ANB WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.
SOME WNW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH
MOISTURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND WILL NOT
BE CONTINUOUS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...RH VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN LOCALIZED AREA TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 100427
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1027 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE`VE STILL GOT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OUT THERE THIS
EVENING ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. MOST RETURNS
ARE VERY LIGHT...AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THIS ACTIVITY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AS WE`RE
NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST THIS EVENING
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. THAT`S PUSHING THE WIND
CHILL VALUES WELL DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT THIS
HOUR. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRODUCE DOWNRIGHT
FRIGID CONDITIONS OUTSIDE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. MIDDLE 20S CAN BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...AND THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUING FOR ONE
MORE DAY.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT WITH THE GUSTS
SUBSIDING AND SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KTS. HOWEVER SOME WNW
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH
MOISTURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND WILL NOT
BE CONTINUOUS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...RH VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN LOCALIZED AREA TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     20  37  24  51  28 /  20   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    22  38  25  53  29 /  20   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  22  40  28  54  31 /  10   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  22  44  28  58  32 /  10   0   0   0  10
CALERA      24  41  29  56  33 /  10   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      24  42  28  58  37 /  10   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  26  47  29  64  37 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        24  46  28  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 100401 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1001 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS THIS EVENING. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...AND HAVE OPTED TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND SOUNDS. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE
FLOW TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER MOBILE BAY AND THE
MS SOUND LATER TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP SCEC HEADLINES IN PLACE THERE.
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. SOME GUSTS AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

UPDATE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND AN UPDATED
FORECAST WAS SENT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES. /21

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 100401 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1001 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS THIS EVENING. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...AND HAVE OPTED TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND SOUNDS. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE
FLOW TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER MOBILE BAY AND THE
MS SOUND LATER TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP SCEC HEADLINES IN PLACE THERE.
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. SOME GUSTS AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

UPDATE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND AN UPDATED
FORECAST WAS SENT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES. /21

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 100341
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
941 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS, TEMPS, AND DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SOURCE OF LIFT SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
MOST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF THE HUNTSVILLE
METRO. WITH THESE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SOME LOCATIONS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NE AL AND S MIDDLE TN MAY PICK UP A VERY LIGHT DUSTING BUT
MOST LOCATIONS ARE DOWN WITH SNOWFALL FOR THE NIGHT. THERE MIGHT BE
A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES IN OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BUT BELIEVE THAT BY MIDNIGHT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR
AREA. ADJUSTED THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE THINKING
ABOVE.

THE CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT FROM THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER
TO THE EXPECTED BLACK ICE ON AREA ROADS. ANY OF THE WATER THAT WAS ON
THE ROADS HAS STARTED TO FREEZE AND WILL LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON
THE ROADS TONIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE TODAY. A
FEW REPORTS HAVE COME IN ALREADY THIS EVENING FROM JACKSON AND DEKALB
ABOUT ICE ON THE ROADS. CAUTION IS ADVISED TO ANYONE WHO WILL BE OUT
TRAVELING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES TEMPS TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED TO THE WEST
BUT THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW HAS KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THEN MOST AREAS WILL BE CLOUD FREE. WITH NO CLOUDS IN PLACE TO
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT THE MAIN INFLUENCES ON THE TEMPS
WILL BE DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE
TEENS BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MO/TN SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THESE LOW VALUES SHOULD BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT THE NW. BUT IN ORDER FOR TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE DEWPOINT TONIGHT WE WOULD NEED FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BREEZE, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
THINGS MIXED JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MORE WIND SHELTERED AREAS COULD
SEE TEMPS CLOSE IN ON THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE BUT THIS SHOULD BE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO MID TO
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER, WITH THE SLIGHT BREEZE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IT
WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER BRISK WIND CHILLS WITH VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WILL WATCH THE TEMP TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
SEE IF ANY MORE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 600 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VERY LGT SHSN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE/RADAR DATA IT
APPEARS THAT REGIME WILL BE CONFINED TO HSV AND POINTS TO THE N/E FOR
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THUS...WILL INCLUDE -SHSN IN TEMPO FOR HSV
THRU 04Z AND WITH VFR CIGS 4-9 KFT AND GUSTY NW FLOW EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE THIS
EVENING AS ANY LINGERING THREAT FOR -SHSN SHIFTS NEWD, CLOUDS BECOME
MORE SCATTERED AND NW FLOW SUBSIDES. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AFTER
14Z...WITH ONLY SCT CI EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY. WE WILL NEED
TO CLOSELY WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF LGT SNOW APPROACHING
FROM THE NW VERY LATE TOMORROW AFTN. SINCE THIS WOULD COME AT END OF
CURRENT TAF PERIOD NO PCPN HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM... ALTHOUGH SCT/BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REINTRODUCED AT 21Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ008>010.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 100019 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND AN UPDATED
FORECAST WAS SENT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 100019 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND AN UPDATED
FORECAST WAS SENT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 100019 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND AN UPDATED
FORECAST WAS SENT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KHUN 100000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN STRONG LAPSE
RATE REGION ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS BEING AFFECTED BY THE
PRECIP. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT 20Z. HAVE UPDATED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
MARSHALL COUNTY AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA UNTIL 06Z.

BASED UPON CURRENT RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TONIGHTS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL 06Z. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS LIFT THE PRECIP EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 06Z...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT.

THE MODELS PROGRESSIVELY LIFT THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT EXPECTED TO SET UP AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY BETWEEN
00Z-06Z THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS INTO MAINLY
THE MID 40S EXPECTED. AFTER THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO AGAIN BUILD SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WESTWARD WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. THIS IS CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE ARE STILL FIVE DAYS OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES FOR EITHER
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN/LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW FROM MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH TEMPS.
THE PRECIP AND SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FOR TUESDAY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VERY LGT SHSN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE/RADAR DATA IT
APPEARS THAT REGIME WILL BE CONFINED TO HSV AND POINTS TO THE N/E FOR
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THUS...WILL INCLUDE -SHSN IN TEMPO FOR HSV
THRU 04Z AND WITH VFR CIGS 4-9 KFT AND GUSTY NW FLOW EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE THIS
EVENING AS ANY LINGERING THREAT FOR -SHSN SHIFTS NEWD, CLOUDS BECOME
MORE SCATTERED AND NW FLOW SUBSIDES. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AFTER
14Z...WITH ONLY SCT CI EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY. WE WILL NEED
TO CLOSELY WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF LGT SNOW APPROACHING
FROM THE NW VERY LATE TOMORROW AFTN. SINCE THIS WOULD COME AT END OF
CURRENT TAF PERIOD NO PCPN HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM... ALTHOUGH SCT/BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REINTRODUCED AT 21Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ008>010.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 100000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN STRONG LAPSE
RATE REGION ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS BEING AFFECTED BY THE
PRECIP. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT 20Z. HAVE UPDATED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
MARSHALL COUNTY AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA UNTIL 06Z.

BASED UPON CURRENT RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TONIGHTS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL 06Z. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS LIFT THE PRECIP EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 06Z...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT.

THE MODELS PROGRESSIVELY LIFT THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT EXPECTED TO SET UP AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY BETWEEN
00Z-06Z THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS INTO MAINLY
THE MID 40S EXPECTED. AFTER THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO AGAIN BUILD SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WESTWARD WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. THIS IS CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE ARE STILL FIVE DAYS OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES FOR EITHER
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN/LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW FROM MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH TEMPS.
THE PRECIP AND SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FOR TUESDAY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VERY LGT SHSN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE/RADAR DATA IT
APPEARS THAT REGIME WILL BE CONFINED TO HSV AND POINTS TO THE N/E FOR
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THUS...WILL INCLUDE -SHSN IN TEMPO FOR HSV
THRU 04Z AND WITH VFR CIGS 4-9 KFT AND GUSTY NW FLOW EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE THIS
EVENING AS ANY LINGERING THREAT FOR -SHSN SHIFTS NEWD, CLOUDS BECOME
MORE SCATTERED AND NW FLOW SUBSIDES. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AFTER
14Z...WITH ONLY SCT CI EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY. WE WILL NEED
TO CLOSELY WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF LGT SNOW APPROACHING
FROM THE NW VERY LATE TOMORROW AFTN. SINCE THIS WOULD COME AT END OF
CURRENT TAF PERIOD NO PCPN HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM... ALTHOUGH SCT/BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REINTRODUCED AT 21Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ008>010.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 100000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN STRONG LAPSE
RATE REGION ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS BEING AFFECTED BY THE
PRECIP. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT 20Z. HAVE UPDATED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
MARSHALL COUNTY AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA UNTIL 06Z.

BASED UPON CURRENT RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TONIGHTS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL 06Z. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS LIFT THE PRECIP EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 06Z...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT.

THE MODELS PROGRESSIVELY LIFT THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT EXPECTED TO SET UP AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY BETWEEN
00Z-06Z THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS INTO MAINLY
THE MID 40S EXPECTED. AFTER THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO AGAIN BUILD SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WESTWARD WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. THIS IS CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE ARE STILL FIVE DAYS OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES FOR EITHER
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN/LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW FROM MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH TEMPS.
THE PRECIP AND SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FOR TUESDAY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VERY LGT SHSN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE/RADAR DATA IT
APPEARS THAT REGIME WILL BE CONFINED TO HSV AND POINTS TO THE N/E FOR
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THUS...WILL INCLUDE -SHSN IN TEMPO FOR HSV
THRU 04Z AND WITH VFR CIGS 4-9 KFT AND GUSTY NW FLOW EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE THIS
EVENING AS ANY LINGERING THREAT FOR -SHSN SHIFTS NEWD, CLOUDS BECOME
MORE SCATTERED AND NW FLOW SUBSIDES. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AFTER
14Z...WITH ONLY SCT CI EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY. WE WILL NEED
TO CLOSELY WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF LGT SNOW APPROACHING
FROM THE NW VERY LATE TOMORROW AFTN. SINCE THIS WOULD COME AT END OF
CURRENT TAF PERIOD NO PCPN HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM... ALTHOUGH SCT/BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REINTRODUCED AT 21Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ008>010.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 092336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
536 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE CLOSED LOW IS WEAKENING AND PULLING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL SITUATED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...A LOBE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ROTATING AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.
WITH CONTINUED COOL TO NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL ADVECTION...CLEARING
SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7KTS...AND WE WILL NOT REACH FULL
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE THURSDAY AS WE FINALLY HAVE WARM ADVECTION
AT LOW LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO PULL FROM AND
EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND CROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL RETURN SATURDAY
AS A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES 10-15F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...SETTING UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL SET UP A WEDGE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS
GEORGIA AND INTO EAST ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE
COOL AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS AND BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER PRECIP.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...STRENGTH
OF THE WEDGE...AND IF LOW LEVEL WARMING OCCURS AT THE SURFACE AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE. ALL OF WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
PRECIP TYPE.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT WITH THE GUSTS
SUBSIDING AND SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KTS. HOWEVER SOME WNW
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH
MOISTURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND WILL NOT
BE CONTINUOUS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...RH VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN LOCALIZED AREA TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...DALLAS...GREENE...HALE...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...SUMTER.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CHEROKEE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 092336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
536 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE CLOSED LOW IS WEAKENING AND PULLING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL SITUATED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...A LOBE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ROTATING AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.
WITH CONTINUED COOL TO NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL ADVECTION...CLEARING
SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7KTS...AND WE WILL NOT REACH FULL
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE THURSDAY AS WE FINALLY HAVE WARM ADVECTION
AT LOW LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO PULL FROM AND
EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND CROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL RETURN SATURDAY
AS A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES 10-15F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...SETTING UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL SET UP A WEDGE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS
GEORGIA AND INTO EAST ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE
COOL AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS AND BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER PRECIP.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...STRENGTH
OF THE WEDGE...AND IF LOW LEVEL WARMING OCCURS AT THE SURFACE AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE. ALL OF WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
PRECIP TYPE.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT WITH THE GUSTS
SUBSIDING AND SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KTS. HOWEVER SOME WNW
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH
MOISTURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND WILL NOT
BE CONTINUOUS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...RH VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN LOCALIZED AREA TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...DALLAS...GREENE...HALE...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...SUMTER.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CHEROKEE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 092336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
536 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE CLOSED LOW IS WEAKENING AND PULLING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL SITUATED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...A LOBE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ROTATING AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.
WITH CONTINUED COOL TO NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL ADVECTION...CLEARING
SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7KTS...AND WE WILL NOT REACH FULL
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE THURSDAY AS WE FINALLY HAVE WARM ADVECTION
AT LOW LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO PULL FROM AND
EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND CROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL RETURN SATURDAY
AS A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES 10-15F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...SETTING UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL SET UP A WEDGE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS
GEORGIA AND INTO EAST ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE
COOL AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS AND BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER PRECIP.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...STRENGTH
OF THE WEDGE...AND IF LOW LEVEL WARMING OCCURS AT THE SURFACE AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE. ALL OF WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
PRECIP TYPE.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT WITH THE GUSTS
SUBSIDING AND SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KTS. HOWEVER SOME WNW
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH
MOISTURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND WILL NOT
BE CONTINUOUS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...RH VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN LOCALIZED AREA TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...DALLAS...GREENE...HALE...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...SUMTER.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CHEROKEE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 092214
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
414 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE CLOSED LOW IS WEAKENING AND PULLING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL SITUATED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...A LOBE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ROTATING AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.
WITH CONTINUED COOL TO NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL ADVECTION...CLEARING
SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7KTS...AND WE WILL NOT REACH FULL
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE THURSDAY AS WE FINALLY HAVE WARM ADVECTION
AT LOW LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO PULL FROM AND
EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND CROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL RETURN SATURDAY
AS A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES 10-15F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...SETTING UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL SET UP A WEDGE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS
GEORGIA AND INTO EAST ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE
COOL AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS AND BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER PRECIP.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...STRENGTH
OF THE WEDGE...AND IF LOW LEVEL WARMING OCCURS AT THE SURFACE AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE. ALL OF WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
PRECIP TYPE.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WNW WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHWEST...TCL TO MGM. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE GUSTS SUBSIDING AND SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KTS.
HOWEVER SOME WNW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH
MOISTURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND WILL NOT
BE CONTINUOUS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...RH VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN LOCALIZED AREA TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     21  37  24  51  28 /  30   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    22  38  25  53  29 /  20   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  22  40  28  54  31 /  20   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  22  44  28  58  32 /  10   0   0   0  10
CALERA      24  41  29  56  33 /  10   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      24  42  28  58  37 /  10   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  26  47  29  64  37 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        24  46  28  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...DALLAS...GREENE...HALE...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...SUMTER.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CHEROKEE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 092151
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      29  53  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   30  53  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      33  52  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   25  51  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  23  52  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      24  50  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   26  53  29  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 092151
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      29  53  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   30  53  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      33  52  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   25  51  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  23  52  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      24  50  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   26  53  29  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 092151
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      29  53  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   30  53  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      33  52  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   25  51  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  23  52  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      24  50  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   26  53  29  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 092151
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      29  53  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   30  53  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      33  52  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   25  51  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  23  52  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      24  50  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   26  53  29  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 092151
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      29  53  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   30  53  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      33  52  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   25  51  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  23  52  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      24  50  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   26  53  29  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 092024
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN STRONG LAPSE
RATE REGION ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS BEING AFFECTED BY THE
PRECIP. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT 20Z. HAVE UPDATED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
MARSHALL COUNTY AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA UNTIL 06Z.

BASED UPON CURRENT RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TONIGHTS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL 06Z. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS LIFT THE PRECIP EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 06Z...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT.

THE MODELS PROGRESSIVELY LIFT THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT EXPECTED TO SET UP AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY BETWEEN
00Z-06Z THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS INTO MAINLY
THE MID 40S EXPECTED. AFTER THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO AGAIN BUILD SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WESTWARD WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. THIS IS CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE ARE STILL FIVE DAYS OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES FOR EITHER
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN/LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW FROM MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH TEMPS.
THE PRECIP AND SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FOR TUESDAY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN
ALABAMA TAF SITES KHSV/KMSL THOUGH ABOUT 01-03Z. ALTHOUGH SHSN
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING...SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO BOTH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. PERIODIC BURSTS OF BRIEF MDT SHSN MAY CAUSE VIS/CEILING
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CATEGORY. ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE OFFICIAL
TAFS...IFR VIS IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHSN...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHSN ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 01-03Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS
(MDT CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS) THRU ABOUT 06-08Z...FOLLOWING BY VFR.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    20  37  24  47 /  20  10   0   0
SHOALS        21  38  25  48 /  20  10   0   0
VINEMONT      21  37  23  46 /  20  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  18  35  21  44 /  30  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   22  36  23  45 /  30  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    19  35  22  45 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ008>010.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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