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000
FXUS64 KBMX 010502
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1202 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE CASE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND
14Z. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR.
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS WOULD BE TOI WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS. WILL MONITOR VIS TRENDS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT VIS RESTRICTIONS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROY AND EUFAULA. EVEN THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59 AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WE`RE STILL EXPECTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THAT WILL HELP TO DIG THE
MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUR CONCERN
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE STORMS...AS WE`LL SEE A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND
25-30 KNOTS AT 925MB MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE THE HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
ACTUAL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED THIS AFTERNOON IN REGARDS TO THE AREAS HIGHLIGHTED THAT WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH HELICITIES REMAIN
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET AS THAT COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND LAST AS LATE AS 11AM IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS BUT SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD FALL IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING
IN. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY COOLER IN REGARDS TO HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AND I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED IN THE COOLER
DIRECTION AS WELL. UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS
WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST CRISP MORNING OF THIS FALL SEASON.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  86  61  87  69 /   0   0   0  30  80
ANNISTON    60  86  65  87  70 /   0   0   0  30  60
BIRMINGHAM  62  87  68  87  71 /   0   0   0  40  80
TUSCALOOSA  62  89  67  88  71 /   0   0   0  50  80
CALERA      64  87  67  87  70 /   0   0   0  40  70
AUBURN      64  85  66  86  70 /   0   0   0  20  40
MONTGOMERY  65  88  68  89  71 /   0   0   0  40  40
TROY        63  87  65  88  71 /   0   0   0  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 010502
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1202 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE CASE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND
14Z. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR.
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS WOULD BE TOI WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS. WILL MONITOR VIS TRENDS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT VIS RESTRICTIONS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROY AND EUFAULA. EVEN THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59 AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WE`RE STILL EXPECTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THAT WILL HELP TO DIG THE
MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUR CONCERN
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE STORMS...AS WE`LL SEE A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND
25-30 KNOTS AT 925MB MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE THE HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
ACTUAL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED THIS AFTERNOON IN REGARDS TO THE AREAS HIGHLIGHTED THAT WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH HELICITIES REMAIN
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET AS THAT COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND LAST AS LATE AS 11AM IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS BUT SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD FALL IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING
IN. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY COOLER IN REGARDS TO HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AND I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED IN THE COOLER
DIRECTION AS WELL. UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS
WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST CRISP MORNING OF THIS FALL SEASON.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  86  61  87  69 /   0   0   0  30  80
ANNISTON    60  86  65  87  70 /   0   0   0  30  60
BIRMINGHAM  62  87  68  87  71 /   0   0   0  40  80
TUSCALOOSA  62  89  67  88  71 /   0   0   0  50  80
CALERA      64  87  67  87  70 /   0   0   0  40  70
AUBURN      64  85  66  86  70 /   0   0   0  20  40
MONTGOMERY  65  88  68  89  71 /   0   0   0  40  40
TROY        63  87  65  88  71 /   0   0   0  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 010449
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1149 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 942 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WRN TN/ERN AR.
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST.
MRNG LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/ARND 60 ALSO LOOKS ON TRACK...AS WELL AS
THE REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EXPECT SCT AC/CI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. ATTM STLT TRENDS/MODEL DATA DO NOT SHOW A GOOD
CHC OF LOW CLOUDS (MVFR/IFR) FORMING TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 010438 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1133 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
01.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
SATELLITE INDICATES SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL START THE FORECAST OFF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A REFORMATION OF LOW CIGS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH SCATTERED POTENTIAL AT THE TERMINALS. PATCHY...EARLY
AM MIST (BR) COULD LOWER VSBY TO IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES BY AND
AFTER 01.09Z. RAINFREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  88  71  88  73 /  05  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   71  85  73  87  74 /  05  20  10  40  40
DESTIN      72  85  77  86  75 /  05  20  10  30  40
EVERGREEN   63  89  67  90  70 /  05  20  10  40  50
WAYNESBORO  62  89  69  88  71 /  05  20  20  50  50
CAMDEN      62  89  67  90  71 /  05  05  10  40  50
CRESTVIEW   66  88  67  90  71 /  05  20  10  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 010438 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1133 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
01.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
SATELLITE INDICATES SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL START THE FORECAST OFF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A REFORMATION OF LOW CIGS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH SCATTERED POTENTIAL AT THE TERMINALS. PATCHY...EARLY
AM MIST (BR) COULD LOWER VSBY TO IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES BY AND
AFTER 01.09Z. RAINFREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  88  71  88  73 /  05  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   71  85  73  87  74 /  05  20  10  40  40
DESTIN      72  85  77  86  75 /  05  20  10  30  40
EVERGREEN   63  89  67  90  70 /  05  20  10  40  50
WAYNESBORO  62  89  69  88  71 /  05  20  20  50  50
CAMDEN      62  89  67  90  71 /  05  05  10  40  50
CRESTVIEW   66  88  67  90  71 /  05  20  10  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 010353
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1053 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE CASE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND
14Z. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR.
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS WOULD BE TOI WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS. WILL MONITOR COOLING TRENDS
THIS EVENING...AND ASSES WHETHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE
NEEDED.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROY AND EUFAULA. EVEN THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59 AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WE`RE STILL EXPECTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THAT WILL HELP TO DIG THE
MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUR CONCERN
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE STORMS...AS WE`LL SEE A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND
25-30 KNOTS AT 925MB MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE THE HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
ACTUAL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED THIS AFTERNOON IN REGARDS TO THE AREAS HIGHLIGHTED THAT WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH HELICITIES REMAIN
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET AS THAT COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND LAST AS LATE AS 11AM IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS BUT SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD FALL IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING
IN. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY COOLER IN REGARDS TO HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AND I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED IN THE COOLER
DIRECTION AS WELL. UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS
WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST CRISP MORNING OF THIS FALL SEASON.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  86  61  87  69 /   0   0   0  30  80
ANNISTON    60  86  65  87  70 /   0   0   0  30  60
BIRMINGHAM  62  87  68  87  71 /   0   0   0  40  80
TUSCALOOSA  62  89  67  88  71 /   0   0   0  50  80
CALERA      64  87  67  87  70 /   0   0   0  40  70
AUBURN      64  85  66  86  70 /   0   0   0  20  40
MONTGOMERY  65  88  68  89  71 /   0   0   0  40  40
TROY        63  87  65  88  71 /   0   0   0  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 010353
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1053 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE CASE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND
14Z. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR.
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS WOULD BE TOI WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS. WILL MONITOR COOLING TRENDS
THIS EVENING...AND ASSES WHETHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE
NEEDED.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROY AND EUFAULA. EVEN THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59 AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WE`RE STILL EXPECTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THAT WILL HELP TO DIG THE
MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUR CONCERN
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE STORMS...AS WE`LL SEE A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND
25-30 KNOTS AT 925MB MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE THE HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
ACTUAL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED THIS AFTERNOON IN REGARDS TO THE AREAS HIGHLIGHTED THAT WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH HELICITIES REMAIN
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET AS THAT COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND LAST AS LATE AS 11AM IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS BUT SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD FALL IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING
IN. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY COOLER IN REGARDS TO HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AND I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED IN THE COOLER
DIRECTION AS WELL. UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS
WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST CRISP MORNING OF THIS FALL SEASON.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  86  61  87  69 /   0   0   0  30  80
ANNISTON    60  86  65  87  70 /   0   0   0  30  60
BIRMINGHAM  62  87  68  87  71 /   0   0   0  40  80
TUSCALOOSA  62  89  67  88  71 /   0   0   0  50  80
CALERA      64  87  67  87  70 /   0   0   0  40  70
AUBURN      64  85  66  86  70 /   0   0   0  20  40
MONTGOMERY  65  88  68  89  71 /   0   0   0  40  40
TROY        63  87  65  88  71 /   0   0   0  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 010242
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
942 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES WITH SKY GRIDS AND WORDING...OTHERWISE CURRENT
FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WRN TN/ERN AR.
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST.
MRNG LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/ARND 60 ALSO LOOKS ON TRACK...AS WELL AS
THE REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 622 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER AR WILL SPREAD SCT AC/CI
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY AIR
MASS OVER THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER NAM DOES HINT AT THE CHC OF MVFR
FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z ALONG WITH SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS (ARND 2000
FT). ATTM WILL NOT INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL MONITOR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
ONCE THE EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS FINALLY DIMINISHED/LIFTED...IT HAS
TURNED OUT TO BE A FAIRLY NICE AND QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...ALBEIT A LITTLE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A BROAD
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF THE OVERALL WX
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH LAYERED
W TO E ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS. UPPER RIDGING OUT OF
THE PLAINS STATES WAS ALSO TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE SE/GULF REGION
THIS TUE AFTERNOON...THEREBY HELPING WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS IN PLACE...OR MORE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE BROAD SFC HIGH SHIFTS FAR TO THE E/NE...WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MID WEEK. MOISTURE RETURN INITIALLY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SLOW...BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE NWRN STATES BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON THU. A SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE NRN/MID
PLAINS STATES IS ALSO XPCTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT EWD THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.

AS MENTIONED...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA LATE THU...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MID/SRN
PLAINS AND PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS AND POINTS S.
LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES ARE HINTING AT SOME IMPRESSIVE
MID/UPPER FORCING DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH PATTERN. WITH A SLY
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE S/W AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH TOTAL SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ANY CASE...SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THU...WITH THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY INCREASING SIG THU NIGHT. MODEST
CONVERGENCE/SPEED SHEAR ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY YIELD A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE TIMING OF THE SFC FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...WITH RAINFALL/CONVECTION
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM THE W FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LARGE/STRONG
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW THEN LOOKS TO USHER MOD
POLAR AIR INTO THE SE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS/DEW PTS
FALLING ANYWHERE FROM 10-20F PENDING THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010242
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
942 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES WITH SKY GRIDS AND WORDING...OTHERWISE CURRENT
FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WRN TN/ERN AR.
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST.
MRNG LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/ARND 60 ALSO LOOKS ON TRACK...AS WELL AS
THE REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 622 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER AR WILL SPREAD SCT AC/CI
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY AIR
MASS OVER THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER NAM DOES HINT AT THE CHC OF MVFR
FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z ALONG WITH SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS (ARND 2000
FT). ATTM WILL NOT INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL MONITOR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
ONCE THE EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS FINALLY DIMINISHED/LIFTED...IT HAS
TURNED OUT TO BE A FAIRLY NICE AND QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...ALBEIT A LITTLE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A BROAD
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF THE OVERALL WX
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH LAYERED
W TO E ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS. UPPER RIDGING OUT OF
THE PLAINS STATES WAS ALSO TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE SE/GULF REGION
THIS TUE AFTERNOON...THEREBY HELPING WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS IN PLACE...OR MORE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE BROAD SFC HIGH SHIFTS FAR TO THE E/NE...WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MID WEEK. MOISTURE RETURN INITIALLY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SLOW...BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE NWRN STATES BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON THU. A SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE NRN/MID
PLAINS STATES IS ALSO XPCTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT EWD THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.

AS MENTIONED...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA LATE THU...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MID/SRN
PLAINS AND PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS AND POINTS S.
LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES ARE HINTING AT SOME IMPRESSIVE
MID/UPPER FORCING DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH PATTERN. WITH A SLY
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE S/W AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH TOTAL SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ANY CASE...SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THU...WITH THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY INCREASING SIG THU NIGHT. MODEST
CONVERGENCE/SPEED SHEAR ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY YIELD A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE TIMING OF THE SFC FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...WITH RAINFALL/CONVECTION
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM THE W FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LARGE/STRONG
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW THEN LOOKS TO USHER MOD
POLAR AIR INTO THE SE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS/DEW PTS
FALLING ANYWHERE FROM 10-20F PENDING THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010122 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
822 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
01.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AT THE HIGHER END OF MVFR CATEGORIES (~3000
FEET) SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...CEILINGS
ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY AM...DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. PATCHY...EARLY AM MIST (BR) COULD
LOWER VSBY TO IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES. RAINFREE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LIGHT POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND
BALDWIN COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO
2 TO 5 MILES AT TIMES. ISOLATED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE PUSHING
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 62 TO 67 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 68 TO 73 ALONG
THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND RANGE FROM 84 TO 89 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 80S AT
THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. A REINFORCING FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL LACKING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  88  71  88  73 /  05  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   71  85  73  87  74 /  05  20  10  40  40
DESTIN      72  85  77  86  75 /  05  20  10  30  40
EVERGREEN   63  89  67  90  70 /  05  20  10  40  50
WAYNESBORO  62  89  69  88  71 /  05  20  20  50  50
CAMDEN      62  89  67  90  71 /  05  05  10  40  50
CRESTVIEW   66  88  67  90  71 /  05  20  10  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 010122 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
822 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
01.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AT THE HIGHER END OF MVFR CATEGORIES (~3000
FEET) SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...CEILINGS
ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY AM...DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. PATCHY...EARLY AM MIST (BR) COULD
LOWER VSBY TO IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES. RAINFREE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LIGHT POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND
BALDWIN COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO
2 TO 5 MILES AT TIMES. ISOLATED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE PUSHING
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 62 TO 67 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 68 TO 73 ALONG
THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND RANGE FROM 84 TO 89 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 80S AT
THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. A REINFORCING FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL LACKING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  88  71  88  73 /  05  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   71  85  73  87  74 /  05  20  10  40  40
DESTIN      72  85  77  86  75 /  05  20  10  30  40
EVERGREEN   63  89  67  90  70 /  05  20  10  40  50
WAYNESBORO  62  89  69  88  71 /  05  20  20  50  50
CAMDEN      62  89  67  90  71 /  05  05  10  40  50
CRESTVIEW   66  88  67  90  71 /  05  20  10  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 010122 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
822 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
01.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AT THE HIGHER END OF MVFR CATEGORIES (~3000
FEET) SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...CEILINGS
ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY AM...DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. PATCHY...EARLY AM MIST (BR) COULD
LOWER VSBY TO IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES. RAINFREE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LIGHT POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND
BALDWIN COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO
2 TO 5 MILES AT TIMES. ISOLATED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE PUSHING
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 62 TO 67 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 68 TO 73 ALONG
THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND RANGE FROM 84 TO 89 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 80S AT
THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. A REINFORCING FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL LACKING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  88  71  88  73 /  05  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   71  85  73  87  74 /  05  20  10  40  40
DESTIN      72  85  77  86  75 /  05  20  10  30  40
EVERGREEN   63  89  67  90  70 /  05  20  10  40  50
WAYNESBORO  62  89  69  88  71 /  05  20  20  50  50
CAMDEN      62  89  67  90  71 /  05  05  10  40  50
CRESTVIEW   66  88  67  90  71 /  05  20  10  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 010122 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
822 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
01.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AT THE HIGHER END OF MVFR CATEGORIES (~3000
FEET) SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...CEILINGS
ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY AM...DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. PATCHY...EARLY AM MIST (BR) COULD
LOWER VSBY TO IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES. RAINFREE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LIGHT POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND
BALDWIN COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO
2 TO 5 MILES AT TIMES. ISOLATED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE PUSHING
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 62 TO 67 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 68 TO 73 ALONG
THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND RANGE FROM 84 TO 89 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 80S AT
THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. A REINFORCING FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL LACKING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  88  71  88  73 /  05  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   71  85  73  87  74 /  05  20  10  40  40
DESTIN      72  85  77  86  75 /  05  20  10  30  40
EVERGREEN   63  89  67  90  70 /  05  20  10  40  50
WAYNESBORO  62  89  69  88  71 /  05  20  20  50  50
CAMDEN      62  89  67  90  71 /  05  05  10  40  50
CRESTVIEW   66  88  67  90  71 /  05  20  10  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 302336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROY AND EUFAULA. EVEN THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59 AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WE`RE STILL EXPECTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THAT WILL HELP TO DIG THE
MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUR CONCERN
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE STORMS...AS WE`LL SEE A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND
25-30 KNOTS AT 925MB MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE THE HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
ACTUAL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED THIS AFTERNOON IN REGARDS TO THE AREAS HIGHLIGHTED THAT WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH HELICITIES REMAIN
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET AS THAT COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND LAST AS LATE AS 11AM IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS BUT SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD FALL IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING
IN. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY COOLER IN REGARDS TO HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AND I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED IN THE COOLER
DIRECTION AS WELL. UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS
WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST CRISP MORNING OF THIS FALL SEASON.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND
14Z. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR.
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS WOULD BE TOI WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS. WILL MONITOR COOLING TRENDS
THIS EVENING...AND ASSES WHETHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE
NEEDED.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  86  61  87  69 /   0   0   0  30  80
ANNISTON    60  86  65  87  70 /   0   0   0  30  60
BIRMINGHAM  62  87  68  87  71 /   0   0   0  40  80
TUSCALOOSA  62  89  67  88  71 /   0   0   0  50  80
CALERA      64  87  67  87  70 /   0   0   0  40  70
AUBURN      64  85  66  86  70 /   0   0   0  20  40
MONTGOMERY  65  88  68  89  71 /   0   0   0  40  40
TROY        63  87  65  88  71 /   0   0   0  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 302336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROY AND EUFAULA. EVEN THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59 AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WE`RE STILL EXPECTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THAT WILL HELP TO DIG THE
MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUR CONCERN
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE STORMS...AS WE`LL SEE A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND
25-30 KNOTS AT 925MB MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE THE HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
ACTUAL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED THIS AFTERNOON IN REGARDS TO THE AREAS HIGHLIGHTED THAT WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH HELICITIES REMAIN
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET AS THAT COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND LAST AS LATE AS 11AM IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS BUT SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD FALL IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING
IN. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY COOLER IN REGARDS TO HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AND I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED IN THE COOLER
DIRECTION AS WELL. UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS
WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST CRISP MORNING OF THIS FALL SEASON.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND
14Z. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR.
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS WOULD BE TOI WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS. WILL MONITOR COOLING TRENDS
THIS EVENING...AND ASSES WHETHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE
NEEDED.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  86  61  87  69 /   0   0   0  30  80
ANNISTON    60  86  65  87  70 /   0   0   0  30  60
BIRMINGHAM  62  87  68  87  71 /   0   0   0  40  80
TUSCALOOSA  62  89  67  88  71 /   0   0   0  50  80
CALERA      64  87  67  87  70 /   0   0   0  40  70
AUBURN      64  85  66  86  70 /   0   0   0  20  40
MONTGOMERY  65  88  68  89  71 /   0   0   0  40  40
TROY        63  87  65  88  71 /   0   0   0  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 302322
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
622 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
ONCE THE EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS FINALLY DIMINISHED/LIFTED...IT HAS
TURNED OUT TO BE A FAIRLY NICE AND QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...ALBEIT A LITTLE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A BROAD
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF THE OVERALL WX
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH LAYERED
W TO E ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS. UPPER RIDGING OUT OF
THE PLAINS STATES WAS ALSO TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE SE/GULF REGION
THIS TUE AFTERNOON...THEREBY HELPING WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS IN PLACE...OR MORE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE BROAD SFC HIGH SHIFTS FAR TO THE E/NE...WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MID WEEK. MOISTURE RETURN INITIALLY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SLOW...BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE NWRN STATES BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON THU. A SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE NRN/MID
PLAINS STATES IS ALSO XPCTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT EWD THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.

AS MENTIONED...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA LATE THU...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MID/SRN
PLAINS AND PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS AND POINTS S.
LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES ARE HINTING AT SOME IMPRESSIVE
MID/UPPER FORCING DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH PATTERN. WITH A SLY
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE S/W AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH TOTAL SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ANY CASE...SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THU...WITH THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY INCREASING SIG THU NIGHT. MODEST
CONVERGENCE/SPEED SHEAR ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY YIELD A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE TIMING OF THE SFC FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...WITH RAINFALL/CONVECTION
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM THE W FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LARGE/STRONG
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW THEN LOOKS TO USHER MOD
POLAR AIR INTO THE SE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS/DEW PTS
FALLING ANYWHERE FROM 10-20F PENDING THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER AR WILL SPREAD SCT AC/CI
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY AIR
MASS OVER THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER NAM DOES HINT AT THE CHC OF MVFR
FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z ALONG WITH SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS (ARND 2000
FT). ATTM WILL NOT INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL MONITOR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 302322
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
622 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
ONCE THE EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS FINALLY DIMINISHED/LIFTED...IT HAS
TURNED OUT TO BE A FAIRLY NICE AND QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...ALBEIT A LITTLE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A BROAD
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF THE OVERALL WX
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH LAYERED
W TO E ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS. UPPER RIDGING OUT OF
THE PLAINS STATES WAS ALSO TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE SE/GULF REGION
THIS TUE AFTERNOON...THEREBY HELPING WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS IN PLACE...OR MORE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE BROAD SFC HIGH SHIFTS FAR TO THE E/NE...WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MID WEEK. MOISTURE RETURN INITIALLY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SLOW...BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE NWRN STATES BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON THU. A SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE NRN/MID
PLAINS STATES IS ALSO XPCTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT EWD THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.

AS MENTIONED...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA LATE THU...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MID/SRN
PLAINS AND PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS AND POINTS S.
LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES ARE HINTING AT SOME IMPRESSIVE
MID/UPPER FORCING DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH PATTERN. WITH A SLY
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE S/W AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH TOTAL SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ANY CASE...SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THU...WITH THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY INCREASING SIG THU NIGHT. MODEST
CONVERGENCE/SPEED SHEAR ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY YIELD A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE TIMING OF THE SFC FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...WITH RAINFALL/CONVECTION
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM THE W FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LARGE/STRONG
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW THEN LOOKS TO USHER MOD
POLAR AIR INTO THE SE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS/DEW PTS
FALLING ANYWHERE FROM 10-20F PENDING THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER AR WILL SPREAD SCT AC/CI
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY AIR
MASS OVER THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER NAM DOES HINT AT THE CHC OF MVFR
FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z ALONG WITH SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS (ARND 2000
FT). ATTM WILL NOT INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL MONITOR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 302102
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
402 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROY AND EUFAULA. EVEN THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59 AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WE`RE STILL EXPECTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THAT WILL HELP TO DIG THE
MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUR CONCERN
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE STORMS...AS WE`LL SEE A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND
25-30 KNOTS AT 925MB MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE THE HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
ACTUAL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED THIS AFTERNOON IN REGARDS TO THE AREAS HIGHLIGHTED THAT WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH HELICITIES REMAIN
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET AS THAT COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND LAST AS LATE AS 11AM IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS BUT SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD FALL IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING
IN. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY COOLER IN REGARDS TO HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AND I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED IN THE COOLER
DIRECTION AS WELL. UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS
WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST CRISP MORNING OF THIS FALL SEASON.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LINGERING MVFR CIGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUING TO ERODE
AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  86  61  87  69 /   0   0   0  30  80
ANNISTON    60  86  65  87  70 /   0   0   0  30  60
BIRMINGHAM  62  87  68  87  71 /   0   0   0  40  80
TUSCALOOSA  62  89  67  88  71 /   0   0   0  50  80
CALERA      64  87  67  87  70 /   0   0   0  40  70
AUBURN      64  85  66  86  70 /   0   0   0  20  40
MONTGOMERY  65  88  68  89  71 /   0   0   0  40  40
TROY        63  87  65  88  71 /   0   0   0  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 302102
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
402 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROY AND EUFAULA. EVEN THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59 AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WE`RE STILL EXPECTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THAT WILL HELP TO DIG THE
MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUR CONCERN
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE STORMS...AS WE`LL SEE A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND
25-30 KNOTS AT 925MB MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE THE HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
ACTUAL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED THIS AFTERNOON IN REGARDS TO THE AREAS HIGHLIGHTED THAT WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH HELICITIES REMAIN
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET AS THAT COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND LAST AS LATE AS 11AM IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS BUT SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD FALL IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING
IN. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY COOLER IN REGARDS TO HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AND I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED IN THE COOLER
DIRECTION AS WELL. UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS
WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST CRISP MORNING OF THIS FALL SEASON.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LINGERING MVFR CIGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUING TO ERODE
AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  86  61  87  69 /   0   0   0  30  80
ANNISTON    60  86  65  87  70 /   0   0   0  30  60
BIRMINGHAM  62  87  68  87  71 /   0   0   0  40  80
TUSCALOOSA  62  89  67  88  71 /   0   0   0  50  80
CALERA      64  87  67  87  70 /   0   0   0  40  70
AUBURN      64  85  66  86  70 /   0   0   0  20  40
MONTGOMERY  65  88  68  89  71 /   0   0   0  40  40
TROY        63  87  65  88  71 /   0   0   0  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 302059
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LIGHT POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND
BALDWIN COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO
2 TO 5 MILES AT TIMES. ISOLATED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE PUSHING
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 62 TO 67 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 68 TO 73 ALONG
THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND RANGE FROM 84 TO 89 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 80S AT
THE BEACHES. /22


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. A REINFORCING FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL LACKING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
30.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MVFR CEILINGS (~2000 TO 2500 FEET) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 01.10Z. CEILINGS
OVER THE MOBILE AND BROOKLEY AIRPORTS SHOULD LOWER TO THE IFR
CATEGORY (~800 FEET) AFTER 01.10Z. AN MVFR CEILING SHOULD PERSIST
OVER THE PENSACOLA AIRPORT THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. MVFR
VISIBILITIES (~3 TO 5 SM) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT KMOB. IT WILL BE RAIN FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  88  71  88  73 /  05  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   71  85  73  87  74 /  05  20  10  40  40
DESTIN      72  85  77  86  75 /  05  20  10  30  40
EVERGREEN   63  89  67  90  70 /  05  20  10  40  50
WAYNESBORO  62  89  69  88  71 /  05  20  20  50  50
CAMDEN      62  89  67  90  71 /  05  05  10  40  50
CRESTVIEW   66  88  67  90  71 /  05  20  10  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KHUN 302035
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
335 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONCE THE EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS FINALLY DIMINISHED/LIFTED...IT HAS
TURNED OUT TO BE A FAIRLY NICE AND QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...ALBEIT A LITTLE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A BROAD
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF THE OVERALL WX
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH LAYERED
W TO E ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS. UPPER RIDGING OUT OF
THE PLAINS STATES WAS ALSO TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE SE/GULF REGION
THIS TUE AFTERNOON...THEREBY HELPING WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS IN PLACE...OR MORE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE BROAD SFC HIGH SHIFTS FAR TO THE E/NE...WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MID WEEK. MOISTURE RETURN INITIALLY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SLOW...BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE NWRN STATES BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON THU. A SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE NRN/MID
PLAINS STATES IS ALSO XPCTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT EWD THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.

AS MENTIONED...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA LATE THU...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MID/SRN
PLAINS AND PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS AND POINTS S.
LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES ARE HINTING AT SOME IMPRESSIVE
MID/UPPER FORCING DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH PATTERN. WITH A SLY
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE S/W AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH TOTAL SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ANY CASE...SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THU...WITH THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY INCREASING SIG THU NIGHT. MODEST
CONVERGENCE/SPEED SHEAR ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY YIELD A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE TIMING OF THE SFC FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...WITH RAINFALL/CONVECTION
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM THE W FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LARGE/STRONG
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW THEN LOOKS TO USHER MOD
POLAR AIR INTO THE SE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS/DEW PTS
FALLING ANYWHERE FROM 10-20F PENDING THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1221 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR FOG FORMATION
BEFORE DAYBREAK WED. THIS WAS ADDED AS A TEMPO AT THE TERMINALS.
VFR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME SE AROUND 5KT BY THE LATE MORNING.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  89  63  89 /   0   0   0  20
SHOALS        58  88  64  89 /   0   0   0  30
VINEMONT      58  88  64  86 /   0   0   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  57  86  62  86 /   0   0   0  20
ALBERTVILLE   57  86  64  87 /   0   0   0  20
FORT PAYNE    57  87  63  86 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 302035
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
335 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONCE THE EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS FINALLY DIMINISHED/LIFTED...IT HAS
TURNED OUT TO BE A FAIRLY NICE AND QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...ALBEIT A LITTLE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A BROAD
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF THE OVERALL WX
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH LAYERED
W TO E ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS. UPPER RIDGING OUT OF
THE PLAINS STATES WAS ALSO TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE SE/GULF REGION
THIS TUE AFTERNOON...THEREBY HELPING WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS IN PLACE...OR MORE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE BROAD SFC HIGH SHIFTS FAR TO THE E/NE...WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MID WEEK. MOISTURE RETURN INITIALLY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SLOW...BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE NWRN STATES BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON THU. A SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE NRN/MID
PLAINS STATES IS ALSO XPCTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT EWD THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.

AS MENTIONED...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA LATE THU...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MID/SRN
PLAINS AND PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS AND POINTS S.
LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES ARE HINTING AT SOME IMPRESSIVE
MID/UPPER FORCING DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH PATTERN. WITH A SLY
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE S/W AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH TOTAL SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ANY CASE...SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THU...WITH THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY INCREASING SIG THU NIGHT. MODEST
CONVERGENCE/SPEED SHEAR ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY YIELD A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE TIMING OF THE SFC FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...WITH RAINFALL/CONVECTION
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM THE W FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LARGE/STRONG
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW THEN LOOKS TO USHER MOD
POLAR AIR INTO THE SE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS/DEW PTS
FALLING ANYWHERE FROM 10-20F PENDING THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1221 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR FOG FORMATION
BEFORE DAYBREAK WED. THIS WAS ADDED AS A TEMPO AT THE TERMINALS.
VFR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME SE AROUND 5KT BY THE LATE MORNING.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  89  63  89 /   0   0   0  20
SHOALS        58  88  64  89 /   0   0   0  30
VINEMONT      58  88  64  86 /   0   0   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  57  86  62  86 /   0   0   0  20
ALBERTVILLE   57  86  64  87 /   0   0   0  20
FORT PAYNE    57  87  63  86 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 301757 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1257 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AVIATION...
30.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MVFR CEILINGS (~2000 TO 2500 FEET) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 01.10Z. CEILINGS
OVER THE MOBILE AND BROOKLEY AIRPORTS SHOULD LOWER TO THE IFR
CATEGORY (~800 FEET) AFTER 01.10Z. AN MVFR CEILING SHOULD PERSIST
OVER THE PENSACOLA AIRPORT THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. MVFR
VISIBILITIES (~3 TO 5 SM) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT KMOB. IT WILL BE RAIN FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
30.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF UPDATE
LIFR CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE MOBILE TERMINAL AND MVFR CEILINGS
PERSISTING OVER THE BROOKLEY TERMINAL HAVE REQUIRED TAF UPDATES.
CEILINGS AT KMOB SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 30.16Z.
/22

PUBLIC...
UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS NOW
COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF
STONE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM MODEL SHOWS THIS
LOW CLOUD DECK PERSISTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO
BREAK-UP. UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE KEEPING THE AREA DRY. UPDATES SENT. /22

MARINE...
UPDATE...BUOY AND C-MAN DATA DETECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTHEASTERN
WINDS OCCURRING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE FORECAST...SO MADE A
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE MORNING ISSUANCE. REMAINDER OF THE
MARINE ELEMENTS ARE IN CHECK. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN THIRD OF FCST AREA WILL GRADUALLY
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TODAY (RAIN CHANCES 20
PERCENT OR LESS) PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION MOVES OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTH. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS
TODAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT FOR A FEW
UPPER 80S OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SOME LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST). MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES TO
THE UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
MOVES OFF AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST
OVER THE ROCKIES TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WESTERN
ENERGY PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD...SPREADING ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A FRONT EAST
OVER THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE IS ON THE
INCREASE...THOUGH IS LIMITED. REASON IS A LACK OF "BREATHING IN"
(READ LIMITED DEEPENING) BY A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES FROM OVER WEST
TX/OK/KS TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR THE FORECAST...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO
THURSDAY...TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA PLAINS BORDER.
CURRENT 00Z GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE WIND-SHIFT PORTION OF THE
COMING FRONT CROSSING TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FA BY 00Z
FRIDAY EVENING...AND WELL SOUTH OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

STILL DO NOT FEEL WE WILL SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. STILL
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE LACKING(<100 M^2/S^2) AND ANY
UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS EXCHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED QUICKLY EAST BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
SE OVER THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST TO MOVE THIS SURFACE LOW
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE FA...THUS LEAVES THE COLDEST PART OF THE
AIRMASS LONGER OVER THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN THE ECMWF ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S SOUTH TO LOWS 40S NORTH. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING TEMPS DROPPING ABOUT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER...MID 50S SOUTH
TO MID 40S NORTH BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WITH BOTH MODELS ADVERTISING THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE FA (OR WELL EAST IN
THE CASE OF THE FA)...TEMPS START TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH EITHER MODEL SCENARIO LIKELY...HAVE BLENDED OUT THE DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. EITHER WAY...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO SHIFT NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH...DEEPENING
IT AGAIN AND PUSHING A FRONT NEAR(GFS) OR OVER(ECMWF) THE FA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE SPREAD...EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...TO LIMIT
TEMPS...SO TEMPS REBOUNDING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
30/12Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 500 TO 1500 FEET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK
BREAKING UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

MARINE...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE US ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS WE GET INTO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE FRIDAY...WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE NWLY FLOW (ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  68  87  72  87 /  05  10  10  10  50
PENSACOLA   85  71  87  74  86 /  05  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      84  72  86  73  85 /  05  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   85  63  90  66  88 /  05  10  10  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  64  90  69  87 /  05  10  10  20  50
CAMDEN      85  63  90  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  40
CRESTVIEW   85  65  89  67  89 /  05  10  10  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 301757 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1257 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AVIATION...
30.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MVFR CEILINGS (~2000 TO 2500 FEET) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 01.10Z. CEILINGS
OVER THE MOBILE AND BROOKLEY AIRPORTS SHOULD LOWER TO THE IFR
CATEGORY (~800 FEET) AFTER 01.10Z. AN MVFR CEILING SHOULD PERSIST
OVER THE PENSACOLA AIRPORT THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. MVFR
VISIBILITIES (~3 TO 5 SM) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT KMOB. IT WILL BE RAIN FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
30.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF UPDATE
LIFR CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE MOBILE TERMINAL AND MVFR CEILINGS
PERSISTING OVER THE BROOKLEY TERMINAL HAVE REQUIRED TAF UPDATES.
CEILINGS AT KMOB SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 30.16Z.
/22

PUBLIC...
UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS NOW
COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF
STONE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM MODEL SHOWS THIS
LOW CLOUD DECK PERSISTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO
BREAK-UP. UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE KEEPING THE AREA DRY. UPDATES SENT. /22

MARINE...
UPDATE...BUOY AND C-MAN DATA DETECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTHEASTERN
WINDS OCCURRING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE FORECAST...SO MADE A
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE MORNING ISSUANCE. REMAINDER OF THE
MARINE ELEMENTS ARE IN CHECK. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN THIRD OF FCST AREA WILL GRADUALLY
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TODAY (RAIN CHANCES 20
PERCENT OR LESS) PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION MOVES OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTH. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS
TODAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT FOR A FEW
UPPER 80S OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SOME LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST). MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES TO
THE UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
MOVES OFF AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST
OVER THE ROCKIES TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WESTERN
ENERGY PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD...SPREADING ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A FRONT EAST
OVER THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE IS ON THE
INCREASE...THOUGH IS LIMITED. REASON IS A LACK OF "BREATHING IN"
(READ LIMITED DEEPENING) BY A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES FROM OVER WEST
TX/OK/KS TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR THE FORECAST...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO
THURSDAY...TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA PLAINS BORDER.
CURRENT 00Z GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE WIND-SHIFT PORTION OF THE
COMING FRONT CROSSING TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FA BY 00Z
FRIDAY EVENING...AND WELL SOUTH OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

STILL DO NOT FEEL WE WILL SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. STILL
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE LACKING(<100 M^2/S^2) AND ANY
UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS EXCHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED QUICKLY EAST BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
SE OVER THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST TO MOVE THIS SURFACE LOW
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE FA...THUS LEAVES THE COLDEST PART OF THE
AIRMASS LONGER OVER THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN THE ECMWF ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S SOUTH TO LOWS 40S NORTH. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING TEMPS DROPPING ABOUT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER...MID 50S SOUTH
TO MID 40S NORTH BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WITH BOTH MODELS ADVERTISING THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE FA (OR WELL EAST IN
THE CASE OF THE FA)...TEMPS START TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH EITHER MODEL SCENARIO LIKELY...HAVE BLENDED OUT THE DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. EITHER WAY...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO SHIFT NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH...DEEPENING
IT AGAIN AND PUSHING A FRONT NEAR(GFS) OR OVER(ECMWF) THE FA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE SPREAD...EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...TO LIMIT
TEMPS...SO TEMPS REBOUNDING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
30/12Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 500 TO 1500 FEET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK
BREAKING UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

MARINE...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE US ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS WE GET INTO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE FRIDAY...WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE NWLY FLOW (ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  68  87  72  87 /  05  10  10  10  50
PENSACOLA   85  71  87  74  86 /  05  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      84  72  86  73  85 /  05  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   85  63  90  66  88 /  05  10  10  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  64  90  69  87 /  05  10  10  20  50
CAMDEN      85  63  90  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  40
CRESTVIEW   85  65  89  67  89 /  05  10  10  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 301744 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1204 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. LOW STRATUS HANGING ON FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT...THEN SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT HEATING. WILL HOLD ON TO CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THIS. EVEN WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING ON SOME...VISIBILITIES ARE
DOING OK...SO HAVE REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS/FORECAST AND
FROM THE HWO.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LINGERING MVFR CIGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUING TO ERODE
AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  57  86  61  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
ANNISTON    84  60  86  65  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  85  62  87  68  87 /   0   0  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  88  62  89  67  88 /   0   0  10  10  30
CALERA      85  64  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      83  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  86  65  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        85  63  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16/87







000
FXUS64 KBMX 301744 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1204 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. LOW STRATUS HANGING ON FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT...THEN SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT HEATING. WILL HOLD ON TO CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THIS. EVEN WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING ON SOME...VISIBILITIES ARE
DOING OK...SO HAVE REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS/FORECAST AND
FROM THE HWO.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LINGERING MVFR CIGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUING TO ERODE
AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  57  86  61  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
ANNISTON    84  60  86  65  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  85  62  87  68  87 /   0   0  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  88  62  89  67  88 /   0   0  10  10  30
CALERA      85  64  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      83  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  86  65  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        85  63  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16/87






000
FXUS64 KHUN 301721 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1221 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1024 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
THE VISIBLE AND FOG/LOW CLOUD SATELLITE VIEW PLAINLY INDICATED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WAS PRIMARILY AFFECTING NORTHERN
ALABAMA NEAR/EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WITH NW ALABAMA...AKA
LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES VIRTUALLY
CLOUD/FOG FREE. DAYTIME HEATING HAS ERODED THE FOG COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOO...NOW ONLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH IT REMAINED
IN PLACE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NE ALABAMA...THE STRATUS WAS IN
THE PROCESS OF FADING DUE TO MIXING AND DAYTIME WARMING.

OTHERWISE...NICE AND DRY LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER (IF YOU LIKE WARM
TEMPERATURES) IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. TRIMMED HIGHS A TAD FOR
AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY FOG/STRATUS. GIVEN BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SPRAWLED OVER THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR FOG FORMATION
BEFORE DAYBREAK WED. THIS WAS ADDED AS A TEMPO AT THE TERMINALS.
VFR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME SE AROUND 5KT BY THE LATE MORNING.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301721 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1221 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1024 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
THE VISIBLE AND FOG/LOW CLOUD SATELLITE VIEW PLAINLY INDICATED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WAS PRIMARILY AFFECTING NORTHERN
ALABAMA NEAR/EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WITH NW ALABAMA...AKA
LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES VIRTUALLY
CLOUD/FOG FREE. DAYTIME HEATING HAS ERODED THE FOG COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOO...NOW ONLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH IT REMAINED
IN PLACE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NE ALABAMA...THE STRATUS WAS IN
THE PROCESS OF FADING DUE TO MIXING AND DAYTIME WARMING.

OTHERWISE...NICE AND DRY LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER (IF YOU LIKE WARM
TEMPERATURES) IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. TRIMMED HIGHS A TAD FOR
AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY FOG/STRATUS. GIVEN BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SPRAWLED OVER THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR FOG FORMATION
BEFORE DAYBREAK WED. THIS WAS ADDED AS A TEMPO AT THE TERMINALS.
VFR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME SE AROUND 5KT BY THE LATE MORNING.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301704 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1204 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. LOW STRATUS HANGING ON FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT...THEN SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT HEATING. WILL HOLD ON TO CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THIS. EVEN WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING ON SOME...VISIBILITIES ARE
DOING OK...SO HAVE REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS/FORECAST AND
FROM THE HWO.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LINGERING MVFR CIGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUING TO ERODE
AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  57  86  61  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
ANNISTON    84  60  86  65  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  85  62  87  68  87 /   0   0  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  88  62  89  67  88 /   0   0  10  10  30
CALERA      85  64  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      83  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  86  65  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        85  63  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16/87








000
FXUS64 KBMX 301704 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1204 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. LOW STRATUS HANGING ON FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT...THEN SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT HEATING. WILL HOLD ON TO CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THIS. EVEN WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING ON SOME...VISIBILITIES ARE
DOING OK...SO HAVE REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS/FORECAST AND
FROM THE HWO.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LINGERING MVFR CIGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUING TO ERODE
AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  57  86  61  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
ANNISTON    84  60  86  65  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  85  62  87  68  87 /   0   0  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  88  62  89  67  88 /   0   0  10  10  30
CALERA      85  64  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      83  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  86  65  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        85  63  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16/87









000
FXUS64 KMOB 301527 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1027 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
30.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF UPDATE
LIFR CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE MOBILE TERMINAL AND MVFR CEILINGS
PERSISTING OVER THE BROOKLEY TERMINAL HAVE REQUIRED TAF UPDATES.
CEILINGS AT KMOB SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 30.16Z.
/22

.PUBLIC...
UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS NOW
COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF
STONE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM MODEL SHOWS THIS
LOW CLOUD DECK PERSISTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO
BREAK-UP. UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE KEEPING THE AREA DRY. UPDATES SENT. /22

MARINE...
UPDATE...BUOY AND C-MAN DATA DETECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTHEASTERN
WINDS OCCURRING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE FORECAST...SO MADE A
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE MORNING ISSUANCE. REMAINDER OF THE
MARINE ELEMENTS ARE IN CHECK. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN THIRD OF FCST AREA WILL GRADUALLY
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TODAY (RAIN CHANCES 20
PERCENT OR LESS) PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION MOVES OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTH. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS
TODAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT FOR A FEW
UPPER 80S OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SOME LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST). MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES TO
THE UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
MOVES OFF AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST
OVER THE ROCKIES TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WESTERN
ENERGY PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD...SPREADING ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A FRONT EAST
OVER THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE IS ON THE
INCREASE...THOUGH IS LIMITED. REASON IS A LACK OF "BREATHING IN"
(READ LIMITED DEEPENING) BY A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES FROM OVER WEST
TX/OK/KS TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR THE FORECAST...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO
THURSDAY...TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA PLAINS BORDER.
CURRENT 00Z GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE WIND-SHIFT PORTION OF THE
COMING FRONT CROSSING TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FA BY 00Z
FRIDAY EVENING...AND WELL SOUTH OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

STILL DO NOT FEEL WE WILL SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. STILL
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE LACKING(<100 M^2/S^2) AND ANY
UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS EXCHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED QUICKLY EAST BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
SE OVER THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST TO MOVE THIS SURFACE LOW
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE FA...THUS LEAVES THE COLDEST PART OF THE
AIRMASS LONGER OVER THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN THE ECMWF ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S SOUTH TO LOWS 40S NORTH. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING TEMPS DROPPING ABOUT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER...MID 50S SOUTH
TO MID 40S NORTH BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WITH BOTH MODELS ADVERTISING THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE FA (OR WELL EAST IN
THE CASE OF THE FA)...TEMPS START TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH EITHER MODEL SCENARIO LIKELY...HAVE BLENDED OUT THE DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. EITHER WAY...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO SHIFT NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH...DEEPENING
IT AGAIN AND PUSHING A FRONT NEAR(GFS) OR OVER(ECMWF) THE FA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE SPREAD...EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...TO LIMIT
TEMPS...SO TEMPS REBOUNDING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
30/12Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 500 TO 1500 FEET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK
BREAKING UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

MARINE...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE US ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS WE GET INTO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE FRIDAY...WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE NWLY FLOW (ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  68  87  72  87 /  05  10  10  10  50
PENSACOLA   85  71  87  74  86 /  05  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      84  72  86  73  85 /  05  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   85  63  90  66  88 /  05  10  10  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  64  90  69  87 /  05  10  10  20  50
CAMDEN      85  63  90  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  40
CRESTVIEW   85  65  89  67  89 /  05  10  10  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 301527 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1027 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
30.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF UPDATE
LIFR CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE MOBILE TERMINAL AND MVFR CEILINGS
PERSISTING OVER THE BROOKLEY TERMINAL HAVE REQUIRED TAF UPDATES.
CEILINGS AT KMOB SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 30.16Z.
/22

.PUBLIC...
UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS NOW
COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF
STONE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM MODEL SHOWS THIS
LOW CLOUD DECK PERSISTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO
BREAK-UP. UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE KEEPING THE AREA DRY. UPDATES SENT. /22

MARINE...
UPDATE...BUOY AND C-MAN DATA DETECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTHEASTERN
WINDS OCCURRING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE FORECAST...SO MADE A
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE MORNING ISSUANCE. REMAINDER OF THE
MARINE ELEMENTS ARE IN CHECK. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN THIRD OF FCST AREA WILL GRADUALLY
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TODAY (RAIN CHANCES 20
PERCENT OR LESS) PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION MOVES OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTH. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS
TODAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT FOR A FEW
UPPER 80S OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SOME LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST). MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES TO
THE UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
MOVES OFF AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST
OVER THE ROCKIES TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WESTERN
ENERGY PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD...SPREADING ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A FRONT EAST
OVER THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE IS ON THE
INCREASE...THOUGH IS LIMITED. REASON IS A LACK OF "BREATHING IN"
(READ LIMITED DEEPENING) BY A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES FROM OVER WEST
TX/OK/KS TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR THE FORECAST...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO
THURSDAY...TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA PLAINS BORDER.
CURRENT 00Z GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE WIND-SHIFT PORTION OF THE
COMING FRONT CROSSING TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FA BY 00Z
FRIDAY EVENING...AND WELL SOUTH OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

STILL DO NOT FEEL WE WILL SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. STILL
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE LACKING(<100 M^2/S^2) AND ANY
UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS EXCHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED QUICKLY EAST BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
SE OVER THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST TO MOVE THIS SURFACE LOW
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE FA...THUS LEAVES THE COLDEST PART OF THE
AIRMASS LONGER OVER THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN THE ECMWF ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S SOUTH TO LOWS 40S NORTH. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING TEMPS DROPPING ABOUT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER...MID 50S SOUTH
TO MID 40S NORTH BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WITH BOTH MODELS ADVERTISING THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE FA (OR WELL EAST IN
THE CASE OF THE FA)...TEMPS START TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH EITHER MODEL SCENARIO LIKELY...HAVE BLENDED OUT THE DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. EITHER WAY...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO SHIFT NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH...DEEPENING
IT AGAIN AND PUSHING A FRONT NEAR(GFS) OR OVER(ECMWF) THE FA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE SPREAD...EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...TO LIMIT
TEMPS...SO TEMPS REBOUNDING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
30/12Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 500 TO 1500 FEET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK
BREAKING UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

MARINE...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE US ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS WE GET INTO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE FRIDAY...WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE NWLY FLOW (ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  68  87  72  87 /  05  10  10  10  50
PENSACOLA   85  71  87  74  86 /  05  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      84  72  86  73  85 /  05  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   85  63  90  66  88 /  05  10  10  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  64  90  69  87 /  05  10  10  20  50
CAMDEN      85  63  90  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  40
CRESTVIEW   85  65  89  67  89 /  05  10  10  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 301527 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1027 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
30.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF UPDATE
LIFR CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE MOBILE TERMINAL AND MVFR CEILINGS
PERSISTING OVER THE BROOKLEY TERMINAL HAVE REQUIRED TAF UPDATES.
CEILINGS AT KMOB SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 30.16Z.
/22

.PUBLIC...
UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS NOW
COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF
STONE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM MODEL SHOWS THIS
LOW CLOUD DECK PERSISTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO
BREAK-UP. UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE KEEPING THE AREA DRY. UPDATES SENT. /22

MARINE...
UPDATE...BUOY AND C-MAN DATA DETECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTHEASTERN
WINDS OCCURRING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE FORECAST...SO MADE A
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE MORNING ISSUANCE. REMAINDER OF THE
MARINE ELEMENTS ARE IN CHECK. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN THIRD OF FCST AREA WILL GRADUALLY
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TODAY (RAIN CHANCES 20
PERCENT OR LESS) PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION MOVES OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTH. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS
TODAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT FOR A FEW
UPPER 80S OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SOME LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST). MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES TO
THE UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
MOVES OFF AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST
OVER THE ROCKIES TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WESTERN
ENERGY PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD...SPREADING ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A FRONT EAST
OVER THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE IS ON THE
INCREASE...THOUGH IS LIMITED. REASON IS A LACK OF "BREATHING IN"
(READ LIMITED DEEPENING) BY A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES FROM OVER WEST
TX/OK/KS TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR THE FORECAST...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO
THURSDAY...TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA PLAINS BORDER.
CURRENT 00Z GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE WIND-SHIFT PORTION OF THE
COMING FRONT CROSSING TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FA BY 00Z
FRIDAY EVENING...AND WELL SOUTH OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

STILL DO NOT FEEL WE WILL SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. STILL
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE LACKING(<100 M^2/S^2) AND ANY
UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS EXCHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED QUICKLY EAST BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
SE OVER THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST TO MOVE THIS SURFACE LOW
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE FA...THUS LEAVES THE COLDEST PART OF THE
AIRMASS LONGER OVER THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN THE ECMWF ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S SOUTH TO LOWS 40S NORTH. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING TEMPS DROPPING ABOUT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER...MID 50S SOUTH
TO MID 40S NORTH BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WITH BOTH MODELS ADVERTISING THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE FA (OR WELL EAST IN
THE CASE OF THE FA)...TEMPS START TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH EITHER MODEL SCENARIO LIKELY...HAVE BLENDED OUT THE DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. EITHER WAY...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO SHIFT NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH...DEEPENING
IT AGAIN AND PUSHING A FRONT NEAR(GFS) OR OVER(ECMWF) THE FA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE SPREAD...EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...TO LIMIT
TEMPS...SO TEMPS REBOUNDING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
30/12Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 500 TO 1500 FEET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK
BREAKING UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

MARINE...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE US ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS WE GET INTO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE FRIDAY...WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE NWLY FLOW (ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  68  87  72  87 /  05  10  10  10  50
PENSACOLA   85  71  87  74  86 /  05  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      84  72  86  73  85 /  05  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   85  63  90  66  88 /  05  10  10  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  64  90  69  87 /  05  10  10  20  50
CAMDEN      85  63  90  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  40
CRESTVIEW   85  65  89  67  89 /  05  10  10  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 301527 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1027 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
30.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF UPDATE
LIFR CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE MOBILE TERMINAL AND MVFR CEILINGS
PERSISTING OVER THE BROOKLEY TERMINAL HAVE REQUIRED TAF UPDATES.
CEILINGS AT KMOB SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 30.16Z.
/22

.PUBLIC...
UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS NOW
COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF
STONE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM MODEL SHOWS THIS
LOW CLOUD DECK PERSISTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO
BREAK-UP. UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE KEEPING THE AREA DRY. UPDATES SENT. /22

MARINE...
UPDATE...BUOY AND C-MAN DATA DETECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTHEASTERN
WINDS OCCURRING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE FORECAST...SO MADE A
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE MORNING ISSUANCE. REMAINDER OF THE
MARINE ELEMENTS ARE IN CHECK. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN THIRD OF FCST AREA WILL GRADUALLY
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TODAY (RAIN CHANCES 20
PERCENT OR LESS) PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION MOVES OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTH. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS
TODAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT FOR A FEW
UPPER 80S OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SOME LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST). MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES TO
THE UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
MOVES OFF AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST
OVER THE ROCKIES TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WESTERN
ENERGY PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD...SPREADING ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A FRONT EAST
OVER THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE IS ON THE
INCREASE...THOUGH IS LIMITED. REASON IS A LACK OF "BREATHING IN"
(READ LIMITED DEEPENING) BY A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES FROM OVER WEST
TX/OK/KS TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR THE FORECAST...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO
THURSDAY...TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA PLAINS BORDER.
CURRENT 00Z GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE WIND-SHIFT PORTION OF THE
COMING FRONT CROSSING TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FA BY 00Z
FRIDAY EVENING...AND WELL SOUTH OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

STILL DO NOT FEEL WE WILL SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. STILL
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE LACKING(<100 M^2/S^2) AND ANY
UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS EXCHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED QUICKLY EAST BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
SE OVER THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST TO MOVE THIS SURFACE LOW
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE FA...THUS LEAVES THE COLDEST PART OF THE
AIRMASS LONGER OVER THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN THE ECMWF ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S SOUTH TO LOWS 40S NORTH. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING TEMPS DROPPING ABOUT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER...MID 50S SOUTH
TO MID 40S NORTH BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WITH BOTH MODELS ADVERTISING THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE FA (OR WELL EAST IN
THE CASE OF THE FA)...TEMPS START TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH EITHER MODEL SCENARIO LIKELY...HAVE BLENDED OUT THE DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. EITHER WAY...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO SHIFT NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH...DEEPENING
IT AGAIN AND PUSHING A FRONT NEAR(GFS) OR OVER(ECMWF) THE FA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE SPREAD...EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...TO LIMIT
TEMPS...SO TEMPS REBOUNDING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
30/12Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 500 TO 1500 FEET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK
BREAKING UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

MARINE...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE US ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS WE GET INTO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE FRIDAY...WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE NWLY FLOW (ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  68  87  72  87 /  05  10  10  10  50
PENSACOLA   85  71  87  74  86 /  05  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      84  72  86  73  85 /  05  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   85  63  90  66  88 /  05  10  10  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  64  90  69  87 /  05  10  10  20  50
CAMDEN      85  63  90  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  40
CRESTVIEW   85  65  89  67  89 /  05  10  10  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 301524 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1024 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
CONTINUED FOG TRENDS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
CLOUDS...AND MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE VISIBLE AND FOG/LOW CLOUD SATELLITE VIEW PLAINLY INDICATED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WAS PRIMARILY AFFECTING NORTHERN
ALABAMA NEAR/EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WITH NW ALABAMA...AKA
LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES VIRTUALLY
CLOUD/FOG FREE. DAYTIME HEATING HAS ERODED THE FOG COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOO...NOW ONLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH IT REMAINED
IN PLACE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NE ALABAMA...THE STRATUS WAS IN
THE PROCESS OF FADING DUE TO MIXING AND DAYTIME WARMING.

OTHERWISE...NICE AND DRY LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER (IF YOU LIKE WARM
TEMPERATURES) IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. TRIMMED HIGHS A TAD FOR
AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY FOG/STRATUS. GIVEN BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SPRAWLED OVER THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...INTERESTING SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS MORNING AS DENSE
FOG IS DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A THICK IFR STRATUS DECK
ADVANCING NWWD FROM NE ALABAMA/NW GEORGIA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT FURTHER VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL VERY LIMITED AT HSV...WITH IFR
STRATUS CIGS PSBL THRU 30/15Z. AT MSL...VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL STRATUS DECK ARRIVES ARND 13Z...WITH CIGS IMPROVING BY
15Z AT THIS TERMINAL AS WELL. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF
TAF PERIOD...WITH SCT CU THIS AFTN BENEATH SCT/BKN CI. SCT CI WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL THRU THE
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 544 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
LARGE TROUGH OUT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS SLIDING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO THE MS VALLEY TODAY. STRATUS HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WEST INTO THE HUN CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS HELD OFF FOG FORMATION FOR A
LITTLE BIT...BUT LOCATIONS MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
VISIBILITY DROPS.

WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY AND WED...CAN EXPECT TO SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH SW FLOW WILL BEGIN ON WED WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH S FLOW WILL RETURN ON THURS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH WED NIGHT AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURS NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LAPSE
RATES LOOK WEAK ON THURS BUT HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR 30-40KTS.
ITS NOT UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT THAT THE LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY
STEEPEN...AND THE SHEAR REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE 30-40KTS ACROSS THE REGION. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE
HUN CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING SO LEFT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THEN.

LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS STARTING ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND A
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THIS COLDER AIR TO
SETTLE IN. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK COULD STILL BE CHILLY WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. BUT TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BY TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301524 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1024 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
CONTINUED FOG TRENDS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
CLOUDS...AND MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE VISIBLE AND FOG/LOW CLOUD SATELLITE VIEW PLAINLY INDICATED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WAS PRIMARILY AFFECTING NORTHERN
ALABAMA NEAR/EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WITH NW ALABAMA...AKA
LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES VIRTUALLY
CLOUD/FOG FREE. DAYTIME HEATING HAS ERODED THE FOG COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOO...NOW ONLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH IT REMAINED
IN PLACE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NE ALABAMA...THE STRATUS WAS IN
THE PROCESS OF FADING DUE TO MIXING AND DAYTIME WARMING.

OTHERWISE...NICE AND DRY LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER (IF YOU LIKE WARM
TEMPERATURES) IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. TRIMMED HIGHS A TAD FOR
AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY FOG/STRATUS. GIVEN BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SPRAWLED OVER THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...INTERESTING SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS MORNING AS DENSE
FOG IS DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A THICK IFR STRATUS DECK
ADVANCING NWWD FROM NE ALABAMA/NW GEORGIA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT FURTHER VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL VERY LIMITED AT HSV...WITH IFR
STRATUS CIGS PSBL THRU 30/15Z. AT MSL...VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL STRATUS DECK ARRIVES ARND 13Z...WITH CIGS IMPROVING BY
15Z AT THIS TERMINAL AS WELL. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF
TAF PERIOD...WITH SCT CU THIS AFTN BENEATH SCT/BKN CI. SCT CI WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL THRU THE
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 544 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
LARGE TROUGH OUT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS SLIDING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO THE MS VALLEY TODAY. STRATUS HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WEST INTO THE HUN CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS HELD OFF FOG FORMATION FOR A
LITTLE BIT...BUT LOCATIONS MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
VISIBILITY DROPS.

WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY AND WED...CAN EXPECT TO SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH SW FLOW WILL BEGIN ON WED WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH S FLOW WILL RETURN ON THURS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH WED NIGHT AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURS NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LAPSE
RATES LOOK WEAK ON THURS BUT HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR 30-40KTS.
ITS NOT UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT THAT THE LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY
STEEPEN...AND THE SHEAR REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE 30-40KTS ACROSS THE REGION. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE
HUN CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING SO LEFT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THEN.

LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS STARTING ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND A
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THIS COLDER AIR TO
SETTLE IN. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK COULD STILL BE CHILLY WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. BUT TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BY TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301437 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
937 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. LOW STRATUS HANGING ON FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT...THEN SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT HEATING. WILL HOLD ON TO CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THIS. EVEN WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING ON SOME...VISIBILITIES ARE
DOING OK...SO HAVE REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS/FORECAST AND
FROM THE HWO.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR TO IFR AT OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL MIXING
AFTER SUNRISE IMPROVES BOTH CIGS AND VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MAIN MOISTURE AREAS WILL BE
AT TOI...ANB...AND EET TOMORROW NIGHT SO INCLUDED MVFR BR HERE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  57  86  61  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
ANNISTON    84  60  86  65  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  85  62  87  68  87 /   0   0  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  88  62  89  67  88 /   0   0  10  10  30
CALERA      85  64  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      83  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  86  65  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        85  63  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16/87





000
FXUS64 KBMX 301437 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
937 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. LOW STRATUS HANGING ON FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT...THEN SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT HEATING. WILL HOLD ON TO CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THIS. EVEN WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING ON SOME...VISIBILITIES ARE
DOING OK...SO HAVE REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS/FORECAST AND
FROM THE HWO.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR TO IFR AT OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL MIXING
AFTER SUNRISE IMPROVES BOTH CIGS AND VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MAIN MOISTURE AREAS WILL BE
AT TOI...ANB...AND EET TOMORROW NIGHT SO INCLUDED MVFR BR HERE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  57  86  61  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
ANNISTON    84  60  86  65  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  85  62  87  68  87 /   0   0  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  88  62  89  67  88 /   0   0  10  10  30
CALERA      85  64  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      83  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  86  65  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        85  63  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16/87





000
FXUS64 KBMX 301437 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
937 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. LOW STRATUS HANGING ON FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT...THEN SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT HEATING. WILL HOLD ON TO CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THIS. EVEN WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING ON SOME...VISIBILITIES ARE
DOING OK...SO HAVE REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS/FORECAST AND
FROM THE HWO.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR TO IFR AT OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL MIXING
AFTER SUNRISE IMPROVES BOTH CIGS AND VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MAIN MOISTURE AREAS WILL BE
AT TOI...ANB...AND EET TOMORROW NIGHT SO INCLUDED MVFR BR HERE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  57  86  61  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
ANNISTON    84  60  86  65  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  85  62  87  68  87 /   0   0  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  88  62  89  67  88 /   0   0  10  10  30
CALERA      85  64  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      83  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  86  65  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        85  63  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16/87





000
FXUS64 KBMX 301437 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
937 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. LOW STRATUS HANGING ON FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT...THEN SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT HEATING. WILL HOLD ON TO CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THIS. EVEN WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING ON SOME...VISIBILITIES ARE
DOING OK...SO HAVE REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS/FORECAST AND
FROM THE HWO.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR TO IFR AT OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL MIXING
AFTER SUNRISE IMPROVES BOTH CIGS AND VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MAIN MOISTURE AREAS WILL BE
AT TOI...ANB...AND EET TOMORROW NIGHT SO INCLUDED MVFR BR HERE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  57  86  61  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
ANNISTON    84  60  86  65  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  85  62  87  68  87 /   0   0  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  88  62  89  67  88 /   0   0  10  10  30
CALERA      85  64  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      83  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  86  65  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        85  63  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16/87





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301200
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 544 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
LARGE TROUGH OUT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS SLIDING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO THE MS VALLEY TODAY. STRATUS HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WEST INTO THE HUN CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS HELD OFF FOG FORMATION FOR A
LITTLE BIT...BUT LOCATIONS MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
VISIBILITY DROPS.

WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY AND WED...CAN EXPECT TO SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH SW FLOW WILL BEGIN ON WED WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH S FLOW WILL RETURN ON THURS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH WED NIGHT AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURS NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LAPSE
RATES LOOK WEAK ON THURS BUT HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR 30-40KTS.
ITS NOT UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT THAT THE LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY
STEEPEN...AND THE SHEAR REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE 30-40KTS ACROSS THE REGION. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE
HUN CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING SO LEFT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THEN.

LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS STARTING ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND A
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THIS COLDER AIR TO
SETTLE IN. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK COULD STILL BE CHILLY WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. BUT TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BY TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...INTERESTING SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS MORNING AS DENSE
FOG IS DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A THICK IFR STRATUS DECK
ADVANCING NWWD FROM NE ALABAMA/NW GEORGIA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT FURTHER VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL VERY LIMITED AT HSV...WITH IFR
STRATUS CIGS PSBL THRU 30/15Z. AT MSL...VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL STRATUS DECK ARRIVES ARND 13Z...WITH CIGS IMPROVING BY
15Z AT THIS TERMINAL AS WELL. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF
TAF PERIOD...WITH SCT CU THIS AFTN BENEATH SCT/BKN CI. SCT CI WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL THRU THE
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301200
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 544 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
LARGE TROUGH OUT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS SLIDING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO THE MS VALLEY TODAY. STRATUS HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WEST INTO THE HUN CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS HELD OFF FOG FORMATION FOR A
LITTLE BIT...BUT LOCATIONS MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
VISIBILITY DROPS.

WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY AND WED...CAN EXPECT TO SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH SW FLOW WILL BEGIN ON WED WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH S FLOW WILL RETURN ON THURS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH WED NIGHT AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURS NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LAPSE
RATES LOOK WEAK ON THURS BUT HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR 30-40KTS.
ITS NOT UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT THAT THE LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY
STEEPEN...AND THE SHEAR REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE 30-40KTS ACROSS THE REGION. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE
HUN CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING SO LEFT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THEN.

LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS STARTING ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND A
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THIS COLDER AIR TO
SETTLE IN. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK COULD STILL BE CHILLY WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. BUT TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BY TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...INTERESTING SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS MORNING AS DENSE
FOG IS DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A THICK IFR STRATUS DECK
ADVANCING NWWD FROM NE ALABAMA/NW GEORGIA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT FURTHER VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL VERY LIMITED AT HSV...WITH IFR
STRATUS CIGS PSBL THRU 30/15Z. AT MSL...VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL STRATUS DECK ARRIVES ARND 13Z...WITH CIGS IMPROVING BY
15Z AT THIS TERMINAL AS WELL. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF
TAF PERIOD...WITH SCT CU THIS AFTN BENEATH SCT/BKN CI. SCT CI WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL THRU THE
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301130
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR TO IFR AT OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL MIXING
AFTER SUNRISE IMPROVES BOTH CIGS AND VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MAIN MOISTURE AREAS WILL BE
AT TOI...ANB...AND EET TOMORROW NIGHT SO INCLUDED MVFR BR HERE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 301130
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR TO IFR AT OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL MIXING
AFTER SUNRISE IMPROVES BOTH CIGS AND VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MAIN MOISTURE AREAS WILL BE
AT TOI...ANB...AND EET TOMORROW NIGHT SO INCLUDED MVFR BR HERE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 301044
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
544 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE TROUGH OUT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS SLIDING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO THE MS VALLEY TODAY. STRATUS HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WEST INTO THE HUN CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS HELD OFF FOG FORMATION FOR A
LITTLE BIT...BUT LOCATIONS MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
VISIBILITY DROPS.

WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY AND WED...CAN EXPECT TO SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH SW FLOW WILL BEGIN ON WED WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH S FLOW WILL RETURN ON THURS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH WED NIGHT AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURS NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LAPSE
RATES LOOK WEAK ON THURS BUT HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR 30-40KTS.
ITS NOT UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT THAT THE LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY
STEEPEN...AND THE SHEAR REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE 30-40KTS ACROSS THE REGION. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE
HUN CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING SO LEFT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THEN.

LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS STARTING ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND A
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THIS COLDER AIR TO
SETTLE IN. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK COULD STILL BE CHILLY WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. BUT TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BY TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    87  60  88  63 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        87  61  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      85  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  85  58  87  62 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   85  60  85  63 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    85  58  86  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301044
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
544 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE TROUGH OUT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS SLIDING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO THE MS VALLEY TODAY. STRATUS HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WEST INTO THE HUN CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS HELD OFF FOG FORMATION FOR A
LITTLE BIT...BUT LOCATIONS MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
VISIBILITY DROPS.

WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY AND WED...CAN EXPECT TO SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH SW FLOW WILL BEGIN ON WED WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH S FLOW WILL RETURN ON THURS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH WED NIGHT AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURS NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LAPSE
RATES LOOK WEAK ON THURS BUT HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR 30-40KTS.
ITS NOT UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT THAT THE LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY
STEEPEN...AND THE SHEAR REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE 30-40KTS ACROSS THE REGION. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE
HUN CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING SO LEFT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THEN.

LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS STARTING ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND A
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THIS COLDER AIR TO
SETTLE IN. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK COULD STILL BE CHILLY WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. BUT TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BY TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    87  60  88  63 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        87  61  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      85  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  85  58  87  62 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   85  60  85  63 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    85  58  86  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300957 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
456 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FROM
900-2000FT. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS ARE PUSHING EAST...ADDED
A MENTION OF MVFR CIGS TO TCL. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR TO IFR AT
OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL MIXING AFTER SUNRISE IMPROVES BOTH CIGS AND
VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  57  86  61  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
ANNISTON    84  60  86  65  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  85  62  87  68  87 /   0   0  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  88  62  89  67  88 /   0   0  10  10  30
CALERA      85  64  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      83  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  86  65  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        85  63  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14





000
FXUS64 KMOB 300947
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
447 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN THIRD OF FCST AREA WILL GRADUALLY
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TODAY (RAIN CHANCES 20
PERCENT OR LESS) PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION MOVES OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTH. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS
TODAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT FOR A FEW
UPPER 80S OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SOME LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST). MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES TO
THE UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
MOVES OFF AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST
OVER THE ROCKIES TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WESTERN
ENERGY PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD...SPREADING ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A FRONT EAST
OVER THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE IS ON THE
INCREASE...THOUGH IS LIMITED. REASON IS A LACK OF "BREATHING IN"
(READ LIMITED DEEPENING) BY A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES FROM OVER WEST
TX/OK/KS TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR THE FORECAST...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO
THURSDAY...TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST...WITHT HE BULK OF THE
ENERGY ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA PLAINS BORDER.
CURRENT 00Z GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE WIND-SHIFT PORTION OF THE
COMING FRONT CROSSING TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FA BY 00Z
FRIDAY EVENING...AND WELL SOUTH OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

STILL DO NOT FEEL WE WILL SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. STILL
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE LACKING(<100 M^2/S^2) AND ANY
UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS EXCHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED QUICKLY EAST BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
SE OVER THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST TO MOVE THIS SURFACE LOW
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE FA...THUS LEAVES THE COLDEST PART OF THE
AIRMASS LONGER OVER THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN THE ECMWF ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S SOUTH TO LOWS 40S NORTH. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING TEMPS DROPPING ABOUT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER...MID 50S SOUTH
TO MID 40S NORTH BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WITH BOTH MODELS ADVERTISING THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE FA (OR WELL EAST IN
THE CASE OF THE FA)...TEMPS START TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH EITHER MODEL SCENARIO LIKELY...HAVE BLENDED OUT THE DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. EITHER WAY...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO SHIFT NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH...DEEPENING
IT AGAIN AND PUSHING A FRONT NEAR(GFS) OR OVER(ECMWF) THE FA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE SPREAD...EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...TO LIMIT
TEMPS...SO TEMPS REBOUNDING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
30/12Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 500 TO 1500 FEET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK
BREAKING UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE US ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS WE GET INTO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE FRIDAY...WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE NWLY FLOW (ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  68  87  72  87 /  20  10  10  10  50
PENSACOLA   85  71  87  74  86 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      84  72  86  73  85 /  20  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   85  63  90  66  88 /  05  10  10  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  64  90  69  87 /  05  10  10  20  50
CAMDEN      85  63  90  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  40
CRESTVIEW   85  65  89  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16






000
FXUS64 KBMX 300938
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
438 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FROM
900-2000FT. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS ARE PUSHING EAST...ADDED
A MENTION OF MVFR CIGS TO TCL. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR TO IFR AT
OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL MIXING AFTER SUNRISE IMPROVES BOTH CIGS AND
VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  57  86  61  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
ANNISTON    84  60  86  65  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  85  62  87  68  87 /   0   0  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  88  62  89  67  88 /   0   0  10  10  30
CALERA      85  64  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      83  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  86  65  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        85  63  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14







000
FXUS64 KBMX 300938
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
438 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FROM
900-2000FT. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS ARE PUSHING EAST...ADDED
A MENTION OF MVFR CIGS TO TCL. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR TO IFR AT
OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL MIXING AFTER SUNRISE IMPROVES BOTH CIGS AND
VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  57  86  61  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
ANNISTON    84  60  86  65  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  85  62  87  68  87 /   0   0  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  88  62  89  67  88 /   0   0  10  10  30
CALERA      85  64  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      83  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  86  65  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        85  63  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14








000
FXUS64 KHUN 300511
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 814 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
UPPER TROF AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TN VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. STLT WAS SHOWING SOME SCT/BKN MID
LAYER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THE CWA...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. OHX 00Z U/A WAS FAIRLY DRY IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WITH BHM A LITTLE MORE MOIST...THUS WILL KEEP PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN ZONES. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE SPREAD DENSE FOG
DUE TO FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SINCE ITS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST
LOOKS GOOD.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300511
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 814 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
UPPER TROF AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TN VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. STLT WAS SHOWING SOME SCT/BKN MID
LAYER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THE CWA...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. OHX 00Z U/A WAS FAIRLY DRY IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WITH BHM A LITTLE MORE MOIST...THUS WILL KEEP PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN ZONES. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE SPREAD DENSE FOG
DUE TO FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SINCE ITS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST
LOOKS GOOD.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300511
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 814 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
UPPER TROF AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TN VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. STLT WAS SHOWING SOME SCT/BKN MID
LAYER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THE CWA...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. OHX 00Z U/A WAS FAIRLY DRY IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WITH BHM A LITTLE MORE MOIST...THUS WILL KEEP PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN ZONES. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE SPREAD DENSE FOG
DUE TO FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SINCE ITS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST
LOOKS GOOD.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300511
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 814 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
UPPER TROF AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TN VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. STLT WAS SHOWING SOME SCT/BKN MID
LAYER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THE CWA...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. OHX 00Z U/A WAS FAIRLY DRY IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WITH BHM A LITTLE MORE MOIST...THUS WILL KEEP PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN ZONES. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE SPREAD DENSE FOG
DUE TO FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SINCE ITS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST
LOOKS GOOD.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300459 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AVIATION
30.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.08Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FROM LOW CIGS RANGING FROM 400 TO 700
FEET WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 30.13Z...THEN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH 01.06Z. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 30.20Z SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AT
4 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 31.03Z...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THEN 3
KNOTS THROUGH 31.06Z. 32/EE

&&

.UPDATE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AND
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. AREAS OF STRATUS OBSERVED TO OUR EAST OVER THE AL/GA WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. IN AREAS
THAT REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION
30.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.08Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FROM LOW CIGS RANGING FROM 400 TO 700
FEET WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 30.13Z...THEN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH 01.00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 300459 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AVIATION
30.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.08Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FROM LOW CIGS RANGING FROM 400 TO 700
FEET WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 30.13Z...THEN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH 01.06Z. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 30.20Z SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AT
4 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 31.03Z...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THEN 3
KNOTS THROUGH 31.06Z. 32/EE

&&

.UPDATE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AND
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. AREAS OF STRATUS OBSERVED TO OUR EAST OVER THE AL/GA WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. IN AREAS
THAT REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION
30.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.08Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FROM LOW CIGS RANGING FROM 400 TO 700
FEET WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 30.13Z...THEN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH 01.00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KBMX 300440
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THESE
HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST HOUR. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 10 PM. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW IS GOING TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MOIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS INDICATE STRATUS AND FOG
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST TO WEST. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FROM
900-2000FT. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS ARE PUSHING EAST...ADDED A
MENTION OF MVFR CIGS TO TCL. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR TO IFR AT OTHER
TERMINALS UNTIL MIXING AFTER SUNRISE IMPROVES BOTH CIGS AND VIS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 408 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 300440
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THESE
HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST HOUR. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 10 PM. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW IS GOING TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MOIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS INDICATE STRATUS AND FOG
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST TO WEST. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FROM
900-2000FT. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS ARE PUSHING EAST...ADDED A
MENTION OF MVFR CIGS TO TCL. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR TO IFR AT OTHER
TERMINALS UNTIL MIXING AFTER SUNRISE IMPROVES BOTH CIGS AND VIS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 408 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 300241 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
941 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AND
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. AREAS OF STRATUS OBSERVED TO OUR EAST OVER THE AL/GA WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. IN AREAS
THAT REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION
30.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.08Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FROM LOW CIGS RANGING FROM 400 TO 700
FEET WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 30.13Z...THEN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH 01.00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 300241 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
941 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AND
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. AREAS OF STRATUS OBSERVED TO OUR EAST OVER THE AL/GA WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. IN AREAS
THAT REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION
30.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.08Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FROM LOW CIGS RANGING FROM 400 TO 700
FEET WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 30.13Z...THEN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH 01.00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 300241 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
941 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AND
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. AREAS OF STRATUS OBSERVED TO OUR EAST OVER THE AL/GA WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. IN AREAS
THAT REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION
30.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.08Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FROM LOW CIGS RANGING FROM 400 TO 700
FEET WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 30.13Z...THEN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH 01.00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 300241 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
941 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AND
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. AREAS OF STRATUS OBSERVED TO OUR EAST OVER THE AL/GA WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. IN AREAS
THAT REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION
30.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.08Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FROM LOW CIGS RANGING FROM 400 TO 700
FEET WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 30.13Z...THEN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH 01.00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 300132
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
832 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THESE
HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST HOUR. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 10 PM. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW IS GOING TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MOIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS INDICATE STRATUS AND FOG
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST TO WEST. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CIGS ALL
FORECAST TERMINALS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. EXCEPTION
WILL BE TCL WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TUESDAY MORNING...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 408 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 300132
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
832 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THESE
HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST HOUR. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 10 PM. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW IS GOING TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MOIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS INDICATE STRATUS AND FOG
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST TO WEST. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CIGS ALL
FORECAST TERMINALS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. EXCEPTION
WILL BE TCL WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TUESDAY MORNING...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 408 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 300132
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
832 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THESE
HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST HOUR. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 10 PM. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW IS GOING TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MOIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS INDICATE STRATUS AND FOG
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST TO WEST. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CIGS ALL
FORECAST TERMINALS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. EXCEPTION
WILL BE TCL WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TUESDAY MORNING...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 408 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 300132
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
832 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THESE
HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST HOUR. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 10 PM. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW IS GOING TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MOIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS INDICATE STRATUS AND FOG
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST TO WEST. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CIGS ALL
FORECAST TERMINALS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. EXCEPTION
WILL BE TCL WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TUESDAY MORNING...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 408 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 300114
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
814 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST ATTM...JUST SOME MINOR WORDING CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TN VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. STLT WAS SHOWING SOME SCT/BKN MID
LAYER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THE CWA...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. OHX 00Z U/A WAS FAIRLY DRY IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WITH BHM A LITTLE MORE MOIST...THUS WILL KEEP PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN ZONES. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE SPREAD DENSE FOG
DUE TO FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SINCE ITS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST
LOOKS GOOD.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON M/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.
CONSEQUENTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
NO CEILING ISSUES ANTICIPATED. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO VALLEY FOG ANYWHERE FROM LATE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH POTENTIAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR
EVEN IFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON M/
LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED DRIER AIR PUSHING IN
FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAS
HELPING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AND WATER SOURCE
AREAS. UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS(80S).

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG ON THURSDAY AS AN 850 MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON THE 12Z MODELS THE EURO
AND GFS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME ON
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN THE FRONT SOME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. GFS
SHOWS CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70....0-6 KM SHEAR
35-45 KNOTS. SO WILL KEEP THE HWO THE SAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MADE NO
FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS ~50. /17/

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 292349
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CIGS ALL
FORECAST TERMINALS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. EXCEPTION
WILL BE TCL WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TUESDAY MORNING...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  85  59  85  64 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    62  85  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  64  86  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  88  64  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  85  64  85  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      63  82  63  86  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  87  65  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        65  86  64  87  66 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 292349
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CIGS ALL
FORECAST TERMINALS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. EXCEPTION
WILL BE TCL WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TUESDAY MORNING...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  85  59  85  64 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    62  85  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  64  86  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  88  64  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  85  64  85  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      63  82  63  86  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  87  65  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        65  86  64  87  66 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 292349
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CIGS ALL
FORECAST TERMINALS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. EXCEPTION
WILL BE TCL WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TUESDAY MORNING...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  85  59  85  64 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    62  85  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  64  86  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  88  64  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  85  64  85  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      63  82  63  86  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  87  65  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        65  86  64  87  66 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 292349
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CIGS ALL
FORECAST TERMINALS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. EXCEPTION
WILL BE TCL WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TUESDAY MORNING...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  85  59  85  64 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    62  85  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  64  86  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  88  64  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  85  64  85  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      63  82  63  86  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  87  65  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        65  86  64  87  66 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 292344 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION
30.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.08Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FROM LOW CIGS RANGING FROM 400 TO 700
FEET WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 30.13Z...THEN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH 01.00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  86  69  89  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   69  84  72  87  74 /  30  05  20  20  20
DESTIN      71  84  75  85  75 /  30  05  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  86  65  90  67 /  20  05  10  20  20
WAYNESBORO  64  87  66  90  70 /  05  05  10  20  20
CAMDEN      64  87  65  90  68 /  20  05  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   67  85  66  90  68 /  20  05  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 292344 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION
30.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.08Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FROM LOW CIGS RANGING FROM 400 TO 700
FEET WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 30.13Z...THEN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH 01.00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  86  69  89  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   69  84  72  87  74 /  30  05  20  20  20
DESTIN      71  84  75  85  75 /  30  05  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  86  65  90  67 /  20  05  10  20  20
WAYNESBORO  64  87  66  90  70 /  05  05  10  20  20
CAMDEN      64  87  65  90  68 /  20  05  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   67  85  66  90  68 /  20  05  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 292344 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION
30.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.08Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FROM LOW CIGS RANGING FROM 400 TO 700
FEET WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 30.13Z...THEN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH 01.00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  86  69  89  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   69  84  72  87  74 /  30  05  20  20  20
DESTIN      71  84  75  85  75 /  30  05  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  86  65  90  67 /  20  05  10  20  20
WAYNESBORO  64  87  66  90  70 /  05  05  10  20  20
CAMDEN      64  87  65  90  68 /  20  05  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   67  85  66  90  68 /  20  05  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 292344 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION
30.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.08Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FROM LOW CIGS RANGING FROM 400 TO 700
FEET WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 30.13Z...THEN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH 01.00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  86  69  89  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   69  84  72  87  74 /  30  05  20  20  20
DESTIN      71  84  75  85  75 /  30  05  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  86  65  90  67 /  20  05  10  20  20
WAYNESBORO  64  87  66  90  70 /  05  05  10  20  20
CAMDEN      64  87  65  90  68 /  20  05  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   67  85  66  90  68 /  20  05  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 292332 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED DRIER AIR PUSHING IN
FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAS
HELPING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AND WATER SOURCE
AREAS. UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS(80S).

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG ON THURSDAY AS AN 850 MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON THE 12Z MODELS THE EURO
AND GFS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME ON
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN THE FRONT SOME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. GFS
SHOWS CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70....0-6 KM SHEAR
35-45 KNOTS. SO WILL KEEP THE HWO THE SAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MADE NO
FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS ~50. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.
CONSEQUENTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
NO CEILING ISSUES ANTICIPATED. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO VALLEY FOG ANYWHERE FROM LATE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH POTENTIAL VISBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR
EVEN IFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  59  90  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        58  86  58  89  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      57  84  56  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  83  56  87  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   55  83  57  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    59  83  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.






000
FXUS64 KHUN 292332 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED DRIER AIR PUSHING IN
FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAS
HELPING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AND WATER SOURCE
AREAS. UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS(80S).

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG ON THURSDAY AS AN 850 MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON THE 12Z MODELS THE EURO
AND GFS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME ON
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN THE FRONT SOME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. GFS
SHOWS CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70....0-6 KM SHEAR
35-45 KNOTS. SO WILL KEEP THE HWO THE SAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MADE NO
FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS ~50. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.
CONSEQUENTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
NO CEILING ISSUES ANTICIPATED. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO VALLEY FOG ANYWHERE FROM LATE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH POTENTIAL VISBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR
EVEN IFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  59  90  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        58  86  58  89  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      57  84  56  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  83  56  87  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   55  83  57  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    59  83  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KBMX 292108
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
408 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE
THICKEST AND LOWEST CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
SOME MVFR FOR ANB/TOI REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...
VERY LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON RADAR STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. DO
HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR MGM/TOI BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG
ENOUGH FOR TS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME...BUT THIS MEANS
THAT MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHEN
AND WHERE WE GET THE CLEARING.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  85  59  85  64 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    62  85  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  64  86  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  88  64  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  85  64  85  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      63  82  63  86  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  87  65  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        65  86  64  87  66 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 292108
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
408 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE
THICKEST AND LOWEST CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
SOME MVFR FOR ANB/TOI REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...
VERY LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON RADAR STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. DO
HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR MGM/TOI BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG
ENOUGH FOR TS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME...BUT THIS MEANS
THAT MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHEN
AND WHERE WE GET THE CLEARING.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  85  59  85  64 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    62  85  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  64  86  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  88  64  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  85  64  85  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      63  82  63  86  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  87  65  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        65  86  64  87  66 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 292108
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
408 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE
THICKEST AND LOWEST CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
SOME MVFR FOR ANB/TOI REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...
VERY LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON RADAR STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. DO
HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR MGM/TOI BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG
ENOUGH FOR TS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME...BUT THIS MEANS
THAT MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHEN
AND WHERE WE GET THE CLEARING.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  85  59  85  64 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    62  85  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  64  86  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  88  64  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  85  64  85  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      63  82  63  86  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  87  65  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        65  86  64  87  66 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 292108
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
408 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE
THICKEST AND LOWEST CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
SOME MVFR FOR ANB/TOI REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...
VERY LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON RADAR STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. DO
HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR MGM/TOI BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG
ENOUGH FOR TS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME...BUT THIS MEANS
THAT MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHEN
AND WHERE WE GET THE CLEARING.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  85  59  85  64 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    62  85  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  64  86  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  88  64  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  85  64  85  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      63  82  63  86  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  87  65  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        65  86  64  87  66 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 292046
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  86  69  89  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   69  84  72  87  74 /  30  05  20  20  20
DESTIN      71  84  75  85  75 /  30  05  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  86  65  90  67 /  20  05  10  20  20
WAYNESBORO  64  87  66  90  70 /  05  05  10  20  20
CAMDEN      64  87  65  90  68 /  20  05  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   67  85  66  90  68 /  20  05  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 292046
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  86  69  89  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   69  84  72  87  74 /  30  05  20  20  20
DESTIN      71  84  75  85  75 /  30  05  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  86  65  90  67 /  20  05  10  20  20
WAYNESBORO  64  87  66  90  70 /  05  05  10  20  20
CAMDEN      64  87  65  90  68 /  20  05  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   67  85  66  90  68 /  20  05  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 292046
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  86  69  89  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   69  84  72  87  74 /  30  05  20  20  20
DESTIN      71  84  75  85  75 /  30  05  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  86  65  90  67 /  20  05  10  20  20
WAYNESBORO  64  87  66  90  70 /  05  05  10  20  20
CAMDEN      64  87  65  90  68 /  20  05  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   67  85  66  90  68 /  20  05  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 292046
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES. /22


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  86  69  89  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   69  84  72  87  74 /  30  05  20  20  20
DESTIN      71  84  75  85  75 /  30  05  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  86  65  90  67 /  20  05  10  20  20
WAYNESBORO  64  87  66  90  70 /  05  05  10  20  20
CAMDEN      64  87  65  90  68 /  20  05  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   67  85  66  90  68 /  20  05  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KHUN 291948
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
248 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED DRYER AIR
PUSHING IN FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WAS HELPING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AND WATER SOURCE
AREAS OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS(80S).

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AS AN 850 MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON THE 12Z MODELS THE EURO
AND GFS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME ON
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN THE FRONT SOME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. GFS
SHOWS CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70....0-6 KM SHEAR
35-45 KNOTS. SO WILL KEEP THE HWO THE SAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MADE NO
FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOW ~50. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/ FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SCT CU ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO
7-9 KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.
17/70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  59  90  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        58  86  58  89  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      57  84  56  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  83  56  87  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   55  83  57  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    59  83  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.






000
FXUS64 KHUN 291948
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
248 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED DRYER AIR
PUSHING IN FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WAS HELPING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AND WATER SOURCE
AREAS OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS(80S).

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AS AN 850 MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON THE 12Z MODELS THE EURO
AND GFS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME ON
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN THE FRONT SOME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. GFS
SHOWS CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70....0-6 KM SHEAR
35-45 KNOTS. SO WILL KEEP THE HWO THE SAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MADE NO
FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOW ~50. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/ FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SCT CU ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO
7-9 KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.
17/70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  59  90  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        58  86  58  89  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      57  84  56  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  83  56  87  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   55  83  57  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    59  83  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KBMX 291820 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
120 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY NOT RULING OUT THE LOW RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW RIDING THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED AS FAR INLAND...WILL
KEEP HIGHER POPS (FOR LIGHT RAIN ONLY) CONFINED TO PIKE/BARBOUR
COUNTIES ONLY...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES TODAY. STILL KEEPING LOWEST VALUES IN THE
EAST WITH BETTER CLOUD COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AS TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE
THICKEST AND LOWEST CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
SOME MVFR FOR ANB/TOI REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...
VERY LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON RADAR STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. DO
HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR MGM/TOI BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG
ENOUGH FOR TS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME...BUT THIS MEANS
THAT MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHEN
AND WHERE WE GET THE CLEARING.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE MAP THIS MORNING AS A DISJOINTED
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
IN THE 850 MB LAYER REMAIN EASTERLY...HAVING NEVER TURNED
SOUTHERLY...AS APPRECIABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FAILED TO DEVELOP.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THE STORY
WILL BE SIMILAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT
ECHOES HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING TO THE EAST...INDICATING THAT
THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...SMALL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 1/10 INCH.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THOUGH THE GEM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...THERE IS GOOD ECMWF/GFS
AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUR WAY BY LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A FAST-MOVER WHICH USUALLY MITIGATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY...BUT IN THIS CASE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEW POINTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS PROBABLY THE MOST UNCLEAR ASPECT AT THIS POINT.

UNLESS TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY...FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY APPEAR COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  85  59  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    61  85  63  87  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  64  87  66 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  63  88  64  89  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
CALERA      63  85  65  87  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      63  82  64  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  65  87  66  88  66 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        64  86  64  86  64 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87







000
FXUS64 KBMX 291820 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
120 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY NOT RULING OUT THE LOW RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW RIDING THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED AS FAR INLAND...WILL
KEEP HIGHER POPS (FOR LIGHT RAIN ONLY) CONFINED TO PIKE/BARBOUR
COUNTIES ONLY...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES TODAY. STILL KEEPING LOWEST VALUES IN THE
EAST WITH BETTER CLOUD COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AS TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE
THICKEST AND LOWEST CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
SOME MVFR FOR ANB/TOI REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...
VERY LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON RADAR STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. DO
HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR MGM/TOI BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG
ENOUGH FOR TS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME...BUT THIS MEANS
THAT MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHEN
AND WHERE WE GET THE CLEARING.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE MAP THIS MORNING AS A DISJOINTED
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
IN THE 850 MB LAYER REMAIN EASTERLY...HAVING NEVER TURNED
SOUTHERLY...AS APPRECIABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FAILED TO DEVELOP.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THE STORY
WILL BE SIMILAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT
ECHOES HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING TO THE EAST...INDICATING THAT
THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...SMALL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 1/10 INCH.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THOUGH THE GEM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...THERE IS GOOD ECMWF/GFS
AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUR WAY BY LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A FAST-MOVER WHICH USUALLY MITIGATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY...BUT IN THIS CASE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEW POINTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS PROBABLY THE MOST UNCLEAR ASPECT AT THIS POINT.

UNLESS TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY...FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY APPEAR COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  85  59  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    61  85  63  87  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  64  87  66 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  63  88  64  89  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
CALERA      63  85  65  87  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      63  82  64  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  65  87  66  88  66 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        64  86  64  86  64 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87







000
FXUS64 KBMX 291820 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
120 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY NOT RULING OUT THE LOW RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW RIDING THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED AS FAR INLAND...WILL
KEEP HIGHER POPS (FOR LIGHT RAIN ONLY) CONFINED TO PIKE/BARBOUR
COUNTIES ONLY...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES TODAY. STILL KEEPING LOWEST VALUES IN THE
EAST WITH BETTER CLOUD COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AS TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE
THICKEST AND LOWEST CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
SOME MVFR FOR ANB/TOI REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...
VERY LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON RADAR STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. DO
HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR MGM/TOI BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG
ENOUGH FOR TS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME...BUT THIS MEANS
THAT MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHEN
AND WHERE WE GET THE CLEARING.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE MAP THIS MORNING AS A DISJOINTED
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
IN THE 850 MB LAYER REMAIN EASTERLY...HAVING NEVER TURNED
SOUTHERLY...AS APPRECIABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FAILED TO DEVELOP.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THE STORY
WILL BE SIMILAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT
ECHOES HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING TO THE EAST...INDICATING THAT
THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...SMALL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 1/10 INCH.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THOUGH THE GEM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...THERE IS GOOD ECMWF/GFS
AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUR WAY BY LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A FAST-MOVER WHICH USUALLY MITIGATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY...BUT IN THIS CASE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEW POINTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS PROBABLY THE MOST UNCLEAR ASPECT AT THIS POINT.

UNLESS TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY...FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY APPEAR COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  85  59  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    61  85  63  87  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  64  87  66 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  63  88  64  89  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
CALERA      63  85  65  87  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      63  82  64  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  65  87  66  88  66 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        64  86  64  86  64 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87







000
FXUS64 KBMX 291820 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
120 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY NOT RULING OUT THE LOW RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW RIDING THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED AS FAR INLAND...WILL
KEEP HIGHER POPS (FOR LIGHT RAIN ONLY) CONFINED TO PIKE/BARBOUR
COUNTIES ONLY...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES TODAY. STILL KEEPING LOWEST VALUES IN THE
EAST WITH BETTER CLOUD COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AS TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE
THICKEST AND LOWEST CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
SOME MVFR FOR ANB/TOI REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...
VERY LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON RADAR STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. DO
HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR MGM/TOI BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG
ENOUGH FOR TS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME...BUT THIS MEANS
THAT MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHEN
AND WHERE WE GET THE CLEARING.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE MAP THIS MORNING AS A DISJOINTED
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
IN THE 850 MB LAYER REMAIN EASTERLY...HAVING NEVER TURNED
SOUTHERLY...AS APPRECIABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FAILED TO DEVELOP.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THE STORY
WILL BE SIMILAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT
ECHOES HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING TO THE EAST...INDICATING THAT
THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...SMALL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 1/10 INCH.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THOUGH THE GEM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...THERE IS GOOD ECMWF/GFS
AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUR WAY BY LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A FAST-MOVER WHICH USUALLY MITIGATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY...BUT IN THIS CASE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEW POINTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS PROBABLY THE MOST UNCLEAR ASPECT AT THIS POINT.

UNLESS TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY...FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY APPEAR COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  85  59  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    61  85  63  87  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  64  87  66 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  63  88  64  89  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
CALERA      63  85  65  87  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      63  82  64  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  65  87  66  88  66 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        64  86  64  86  64 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87







000
FXUS64 KMOB 291754 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1254 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

.PUBLIC UPDATE...RADAR MOSAIC DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM MODELS DUE INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY EXPECTING LOW END SCATTERED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADJUSTED QPF TO LOWER AMOUNTS AS
WELL. REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING NICELY...AND STILL
EXPECT TO REACH THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL PERSIST.
UPDATES SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WITH BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 2.1 INCHES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE FAVORED OVER
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-65. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND POPS FROM 20-30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO
50-60 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA. A LINGERING LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
AND A SHALLOW MOIST SURFACE LAYER MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURE-WISE... HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY WERE
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS...FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
HIGHER POP AREAS...TO THE MID 80S OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. /21

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
IS SLOW TO MOVE OFF...LIMITING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES. ENERGY DOES SWING THROUGH THE
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY EXITING THE TROUGH AND MORE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN TROUGH...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS ENERGY ALSO SHIFTS A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD...RESTORING A
MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO
MISS/AL. FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE RE-INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FA. WITH THE FA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF
MEX...AND A RIDGELINE STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...A SECOND ROUND OF ENERGY THAT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SHORT TERM FINALLY HAS ENOUGH OOMPH TO BEGIN TO PUSH THE WHOLE
RIDGE EAST. THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ORGANIZES A BIT MORE...THEN HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE MOISTURE GETTING GETTING DRAWN OFF THE GULF INCREASES...WITH
TEMPS FOR THE FA CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL. POPS ALSO ARE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...AND WITH INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE...
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME OF THESE RUMBLERS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SOME ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT THIS
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE FA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TIMING IS A BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS...WITH
THE FRONT STRETCHED N/S ACROSS THE FA AT 00Z SATURDAY...BUT NOT BY
MUCH. TEMPS AND POPS ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. SIGNIFICANT JET ENHANCEMENT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA. AM
NOT RULING OUT A STORM OR TWO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE FRIDAY...BUT
AM NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVEN. INSTABILITY RISES TO
AROUND 2000J/KG...BUT WIND SHEAR REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH
VALUES LESS THAN 100 M**2/S**2 OVER MOST OF THE FA. BEST CHANCE WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN MOST-SECTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH THE CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...IF ANY ROWDINESS OCCURS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS MORE ENERGY REPLACES THAT WHICH EXITS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HANGS AROUND FOR AWHILE...THEN HEADS OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING MONDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN FOR THE FA COMES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50/UPPER 40S OVER MOST
OF THE FA. DAYTIME HIGHS DROP TO AROUND SEASONAL FOR SAT AND
SUN...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND
PERSISTS OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL NEED TO
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY
TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY MID TO LATE WEEK. OFFSHORE WIND FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN
THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  68  87  69  89 /  30  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   82  70  86  72  87 /  40  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      81  72  85  75  85 /  40  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   83  65  87  65  90 /  40  20  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  86  65  88  66  90 /  30  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN      85  64  87  65  90 /  40  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   82  68  86  66  90 /  40  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 291754 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1254 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

.PUBLIC UPDATE...RADAR MOSAIC DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM MODELS DUE INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY EXPECTING LOW END SCATTERED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADJUSTED QPF TO LOWER AMOUNTS AS
WELL. REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING NICELY...AND STILL
EXPECT TO REACH THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL PERSIST.
UPDATES SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WITH BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 2.1 INCHES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE FAVORED OVER
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-65. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND POPS FROM 20-30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO
50-60 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA. A LINGERING LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
AND A SHALLOW MOIST SURFACE LAYER MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURE-WISE... HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY WERE
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS...FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
HIGHER POP AREAS...TO THE MID 80S OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. /21

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
IS SLOW TO MOVE OFF...LIMITING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES. ENERGY DOES SWING THROUGH THE
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY EXITING THE TROUGH AND MORE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN TROUGH...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS ENERGY ALSO SHIFTS A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD...RESTORING A
MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO
MISS/AL. FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE RE-INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FA. WITH THE FA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF
MEX...AND A RIDGELINE STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...A SECOND ROUND OF ENERGY THAT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SHORT TERM FINALLY HAS ENOUGH OOMPH TO BEGIN TO PUSH THE WHOLE
RIDGE EAST. THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ORGANIZES A BIT MORE...THEN HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE MOISTURE GETTING GETTING DRAWN OFF THE GULF INCREASES...WITH
TEMPS FOR THE FA CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL. POPS ALSO ARE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...AND WITH INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE...
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME OF THESE RUMBLERS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SOME ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT THIS
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE FA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TIMING IS A BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS...WITH
THE FRONT STRETCHED N/S ACROSS THE FA AT 00Z SATURDAY...BUT NOT BY
MUCH. TEMPS AND POPS ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. SIGNIFICANT JET ENHANCEMENT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA. AM
NOT RULING OUT A STORM OR TWO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE FRIDAY...BUT
AM NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVEN. INSTABILITY RISES TO
AROUND 2000J/KG...BUT WIND SHEAR REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH
VALUES LESS THAN 100 M**2/S**2 OVER MOST OF THE FA. BEST CHANCE WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN MOST-SECTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH THE CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...IF ANY ROWDINESS OCCURS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS MORE ENERGY REPLACES THAT WHICH EXITS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HANGS AROUND FOR AWHILE...THEN HEADS OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING MONDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN FOR THE FA COMES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50/UPPER 40S OVER MOST
OF THE FA. DAYTIME HIGHS DROP TO AROUND SEASONAL FOR SAT AND
SUN...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND
PERSISTS OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL NEED TO
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY
TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY MID TO LATE WEEK. OFFSHORE WIND FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN
THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  68  87  69  89 /  30  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   82  70  86  72  87 /  40  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      81  72  85  75  85 /  40  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   83  65  87  65  90 /  40  20  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  86  65  88  66  90 /  30  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN      85  64  87  65  90 /  40  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   82  68  86  66  90 /  40  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 291754 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1254 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

.PUBLIC UPDATE...RADAR MOSAIC DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM MODELS DUE INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY EXPECTING LOW END SCATTERED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADJUSTED QPF TO LOWER AMOUNTS AS
WELL. REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING NICELY...AND STILL
EXPECT TO REACH THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL PERSIST.
UPDATES SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WITH BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 2.1 INCHES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE FAVORED OVER
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-65. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND POPS FROM 20-30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO
50-60 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA. A LINGERING LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
AND A SHALLOW MOIST SURFACE LAYER MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURE-WISE... HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY WERE
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS...FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
HIGHER POP AREAS...TO THE MID 80S OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. /21

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
IS SLOW TO MOVE OFF...LIMITING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES. ENERGY DOES SWING THROUGH THE
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY EXITING THE TROUGH AND MORE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN TROUGH...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS ENERGY ALSO SHIFTS A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD...RESTORING A
MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO
MISS/AL. FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE RE-INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FA. WITH THE FA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF
MEX...AND A RIDGELINE STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...A SECOND ROUND OF ENERGY THAT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SHORT TERM FINALLY HAS ENOUGH OOMPH TO BEGIN TO PUSH THE WHOLE
RIDGE EAST. THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ORGANIZES A BIT MORE...THEN HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE MOISTURE GETTING GETTING DRAWN OFF THE GULF INCREASES...WITH
TEMPS FOR THE FA CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL. POPS ALSO ARE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...AND WITH INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE...
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME OF THESE RUMBLERS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SOME ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT THIS
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE FA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TIMING IS A BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS...WITH
THE FRONT STRETCHED N/S ACROSS THE FA AT 00Z SATURDAY...BUT NOT BY
MUCH. TEMPS AND POPS ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. SIGNIFICANT JET ENHANCEMENT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA. AM
NOT RULING OUT A STORM OR TWO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE FRIDAY...BUT
AM NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVEN. INSTABILITY RISES TO
AROUND 2000J/KG...BUT WIND SHEAR REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH
VALUES LESS THAN 100 M**2/S**2 OVER MOST OF THE FA. BEST CHANCE WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN MOST-SECTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH THE CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...IF ANY ROWDINESS OCCURS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS MORE ENERGY REPLACES THAT WHICH EXITS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HANGS AROUND FOR AWHILE...THEN HEADS OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING MONDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN FOR THE FA COMES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50/UPPER 40S OVER MOST
OF THE FA. DAYTIME HIGHS DROP TO AROUND SEASONAL FOR SAT AND
SUN...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND
PERSISTS OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL NEED TO
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY
TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY MID TO LATE WEEK. OFFSHORE WIND FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN
THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  68  87  69  89 /  30  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   82  70  86  72  87 /  40  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      81  72  85  75  85 /  40  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   83  65  87  65  90 /  40  20  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  86  65  88  66  90 /  30  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN      85  64  87  65  90 /  40  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   82  68  86  66  90 /  40  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 291754 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1254 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
29.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE PENSACOLA TERMINAL DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS FOR THE MOBILE TERMINAL WILL DETERIORATE THE
MOST WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING CONDITIONS (~400 FEET) AND IFR
VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) BY LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. /22

.PUBLIC UPDATE...RADAR MOSAIC DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM MODELS DUE INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY EXPECTING LOW END SCATTERED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADJUSTED QPF TO LOWER AMOUNTS AS
WELL. REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING NICELY...AND STILL
EXPECT TO REACH THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL PERSIST.
UPDATES SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WITH BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 2.1 INCHES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE FAVORED OVER
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-65. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND POPS FROM 20-30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO
50-60 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA. A LINGERING LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
AND A SHALLOW MOIST SURFACE LAYER MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURE-WISE... HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY WERE
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS...FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
HIGHER POP AREAS...TO THE MID 80S OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. /21

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
IS SLOW TO MOVE OFF...LIMITING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES. ENERGY DOES SWING THROUGH THE
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY EXITING THE TROUGH AND MORE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN TROUGH...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS ENERGY ALSO SHIFTS A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD...RESTORING A
MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO
MISS/AL. FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE RE-INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FA. WITH THE FA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF
MEX...AND A RIDGELINE STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...A SECOND ROUND OF ENERGY THAT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SHORT TERM FINALLY HAS ENOUGH OOMPH TO BEGIN TO PUSH THE WHOLE
RIDGE EAST. THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ORGANIZES A BIT MORE...THEN HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE MOISTURE GETTING GETTING DRAWN OFF THE GULF INCREASES...WITH
TEMPS FOR THE FA CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL. POPS ALSO ARE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...AND WITH INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE...
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME OF THESE RUMBLERS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SOME ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT THIS
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE FA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TIMING IS A BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS...WITH
THE FRONT STRETCHED N/S ACROSS THE FA AT 00Z SATURDAY...BUT NOT BY
MUCH. TEMPS AND POPS ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. SIGNIFICANT JET ENHANCEMENT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA. AM
NOT RULING OUT A STORM OR TWO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE FRIDAY...BUT
AM NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVEN. INSTABILITY RISES TO
AROUND 2000J/KG...BUT WIND SHEAR REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH
VALUES LESS THAN 100 M**2/S**2 OVER MOST OF THE FA. BEST CHANCE WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN MOST-SECTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH THE CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...IF ANY ROWDINESS OCCURS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS MORE ENERGY REPLACES THAT WHICH EXITS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HANGS AROUND FOR AWHILE...THEN HEADS OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING MONDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN FOR THE FA COMES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50/UPPER 40S OVER MOST
OF THE FA. DAYTIME HIGHS DROP TO AROUND SEASONAL FOR SAT AND
SUN...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND
PERSISTS OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL NEED TO
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY
TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY MID TO LATE WEEK. OFFSHORE WIND FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN
THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  68  87  69  89 /  30  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   82  70  86  72  87 /  40  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      81  72  85  75  85 /  40  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   83  65  87  65  90 /  40  20  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  86  65  88  66  90 /  30  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN      85  64  87  65  90 /  40  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   82  68  86  66  90 /  40  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 291620
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1120 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
TOOK OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRYER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE FROM 80-85./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/ FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SCT CU ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO
7-9 KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.

17/70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  87  59  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        57  88  60  86  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      60  85  61  86  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  85  57  84  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   56  85  59  84  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    58  85  57  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 291620
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1120 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
TOOK OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRYER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE FROM 80-85./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/ FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SCT CU ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO
7-9 KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.

17/70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  87  59  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        57  88  60  86  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      60  85  61  86  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  85  57  84  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   56  85  59  84  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    58  85  57  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.






000
FXUS64 KBMX 291612 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY NOT RULING OUT THE LOW RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW RIDING THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED AS FAR INLAND...WILL
KEEP HIGHER POPS (FOR LIGHT RAIN ONLY) CONFINED TO PIKE/BARBOUR
COUNTIES ONLY...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES TODAY. STILL KEEPING LOWEST VALUES IN THE
EAST WITH BETTER CLOUD COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AS TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WORST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IFR CIGS
ARE IN PLACE AT TOI AND MGM. THESE WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE MVFR IS IN PLACE AT ANB AND MAY WORK INTO BHM
AND EET THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER 18Z THE NORTH SITES SHOULD BE
BACK TO VF...WHILE THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE CLEARING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT CLOUDS WILL HOLD FIRM AT TOI. IN FACT LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT OF IFR CIGS AT TOI. LESS CONFIDENT OF IFR AT
MGM AS THE MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE HERE BY 6Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE MAP THIS MORNING AS A DISJOINTED
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
IN THE 850 MB LAYER REMAIN EASTERLY...HAVING NEVER TURNED
SOUTHERLY...AS APPRECIABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FAILED TO DEVELOP.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THE STORY
WILL BE SIMILAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT
ECHOES HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING TO THE EAST...INDICATING THAT
THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...SMALL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 1/10 INCH.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THOUGH THE GEM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...THERE IS GOOD ECMWF/GFS
AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUR WAY BY LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A FAST-MOVER WHICH USUALLY MITIGATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY...BUT IN THIS CASE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS PROBABLY THE MOST UNCLEAR ASPECT AT THIS POINT.

UNLESS TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY...FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY APPEAR COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  59  85  59  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    79  61  85  63  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  85  63  86  64  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  86  63  88  64  89 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      83  63  85  65  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      79  63  82  64  86 /  40  20   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  81  65  87  66  88 /  30  10   0   0  10
TROY        79  64  86  64  86 /  60  20   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16/87






000
FXUS64 KBMX 291612 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY NOT RULING OUT THE LOW RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW RIDING THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED AS FAR INLAND...WILL
KEEP HIGHER POPS (FOR LIGHT RAIN ONLY) CONFINED TO PIKE/BARBOUR
COUNTIES ONLY...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES TODAY. STILL KEEPING LOWEST VALUES IN THE
EAST WITH BETTER CLOUD COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AS TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WORST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IFR CIGS
ARE IN PLACE AT TOI AND MGM. THESE WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE MVFR IS IN PLACE AT ANB AND MAY WORK INTO BHM
AND EET THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER 18Z THE NORTH SITES SHOULD BE
BACK TO VF...WHILE THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE CLEARING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT CLOUDS WILL HOLD FIRM AT TOI. IN FACT LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT OF IFR CIGS AT TOI. LESS CONFIDENT OF IFR AT
MGM AS THE MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE HERE BY 6Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE MAP THIS MORNING AS A DISJOINTED
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
IN THE 850 MB LAYER REMAIN EASTERLY...HAVING NEVER TURNED
SOUTHERLY...AS APPRECIABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FAILED TO DEVELOP.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THE STORY
WILL BE SIMILAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT
ECHOES HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING TO THE EAST...INDICATING THAT
THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...SMALL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 1/10 INCH.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THOUGH THE GEM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...THERE IS GOOD ECMWF/GFS
AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUR WAY BY LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A FAST-MOVER WHICH USUALLY MITIGATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY...BUT IN THIS CASE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS PROBABLY THE MOST UNCLEAR ASPECT AT THIS POINT.

UNLESS TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY...FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY APPEAR COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  59  85  59  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    79  61  85  63  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  85  63  86  64  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  86  63  88  64  89 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      83  63  85  65  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      79  63  82  64  86 /  40  20   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  81  65  87  66  88 /  30  10   0   0  10
TROY        79  64  86  64  86 /  60  20   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16/87







000
FXUS64 KHUN 291202
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY FALLING IS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS NOTED
AT 850MB. MOST OF THE PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAS NOT MADE IT
TO THE GROUND WITH THE HIGHER CEILING HEIGHTS. THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE FOG POTENTIAL AT BAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST THAT
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND A TROUGH IN THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG FOR
MAINLY VALLEYS/BODIES OF WATER LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
DECREASE...WINDS SLACK AND MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS MOISTURE COULD
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR FOG EVEN THOUGH NOT MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MID 80S/ TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. THE EURO BRINGS IN THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND ALSO WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING...AS IT HAS CHANGED
ON MODEL RUNS AND DIFFERED BETWEEN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER CAPE
AND SHEAR...CAPE +1000 J/KG AND SHEAR 30-40KTS 0-6KM. WILL LEAN
MORESO WITH THE EURO ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMING IN FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EURO PARAMETERS FOR THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURS AFTN/EVENING FOR ANY PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, LOWS ~50. AS FOR THE GRIDS...HAD TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THE DRY AIR BEHIND IT. ALSO RAISED UP THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THREAT FOR -RA DIMINISHING AT
HSV/MSL. EXPECT SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT HSV FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ARRIVES FROM
THE NW. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MSL AND WILL
INTRODUCE 3SM AS PREVAILING COND THRU 14Z. OTHERWISE..EXPECT SCT CU
ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO 7-9
KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE WIDESPREAD
AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291202
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY FALLING IS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS NOTED
AT 850MB. MOST OF THE PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAS NOT MADE IT
TO THE GROUND WITH THE HIGHER CEILING HEIGHTS. THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE FOG POTENTIAL AT BAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST THAT
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND A TROUGH IN THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG FOR
MAINLY VALLEYS/BODIES OF WATER LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
DECREASE...WINDS SLACK AND MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS MOISTURE COULD
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR FOG EVEN THOUGH NOT MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MID 80S/ TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. THE EURO BRINGS IN THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND ALSO WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING...AS IT HAS CHANGED
ON MODEL RUNS AND DIFFERED BETWEEN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER CAPE
AND SHEAR...CAPE +1000 J/KG AND SHEAR 30-40KTS 0-6KM. WILL LEAN
MORESO WITH THE EURO ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMING IN FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EURO PARAMETERS FOR THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURS AFTN/EVENING FOR ANY PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, LOWS ~50. AS FOR THE GRIDS...HAD TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THE DRY AIR BEHIND IT. ALSO RAISED UP THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THREAT FOR -RA DIMINISHING AT
HSV/MSL. EXPECT SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT HSV FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ARRIVES FROM
THE NW. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MSL AND WILL
INTRODUCE 3SM AS PREVAILING COND THRU 14Z. OTHERWISE..EXPECT SCT CU
ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO 7-9
KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE WIDESPREAD
AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291202
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY FALLING IS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS NOTED
AT 850MB. MOST OF THE PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAS NOT MADE IT
TO THE GROUND WITH THE HIGHER CEILING HEIGHTS. THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE FOG POTENTIAL AT BAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST THAT
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND A TROUGH IN THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG FOR
MAINLY VALLEYS/BODIES OF WATER LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
DECREASE...WINDS SLACK AND MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS MOISTURE COULD
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR FOG EVEN THOUGH NOT MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MID 80S/ TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. THE EURO BRINGS IN THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND ALSO WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING...AS IT HAS CHANGED
ON MODEL RUNS AND DIFFERED BETWEEN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER CAPE
AND SHEAR...CAPE +1000 J/KG AND SHEAR 30-40KTS 0-6KM. WILL LEAN
MORESO WITH THE EURO ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMING IN FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EURO PARAMETERS FOR THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURS AFTN/EVENING FOR ANY PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, LOWS ~50. AS FOR THE GRIDS...HAD TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THE DRY AIR BEHIND IT. ALSO RAISED UP THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THREAT FOR -RA DIMINISHING AT
HSV/MSL. EXPECT SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT HSV FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ARRIVES FROM
THE NW. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MSL AND WILL
INTRODUCE 3SM AS PREVAILING COND THRU 14Z. OTHERWISE..EXPECT SCT CU
ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO 7-9
KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE WIDESPREAD
AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291202
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY FALLING IS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS NOTED
AT 850MB. MOST OF THE PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAS NOT MADE IT
TO THE GROUND WITH THE HIGHER CEILING HEIGHTS. THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE FOG POTENTIAL AT BAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST THAT
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND A TROUGH IN THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG FOR
MAINLY VALLEYS/BODIES OF WATER LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
DECREASE...WINDS SLACK AND MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS MOISTURE COULD
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR FOG EVEN THOUGH NOT MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MID 80S/ TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. THE EURO BRINGS IN THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND ALSO WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING...AS IT HAS CHANGED
ON MODEL RUNS AND DIFFERED BETWEEN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER CAPE
AND SHEAR...CAPE +1000 J/KG AND SHEAR 30-40KTS 0-6KM. WILL LEAN
MORESO WITH THE EURO ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMING IN FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EURO PARAMETERS FOR THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURS AFTN/EVENING FOR ANY PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, LOWS ~50. AS FOR THE GRIDS...HAD TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THE DRY AIR BEHIND IT. ALSO RAISED UP THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THREAT FOR -RA DIMINISHING AT
HSV/MSL. EXPECT SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT HSV FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ARRIVES FROM
THE NW. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MSL AND WILL
INTRODUCE 3SM AS PREVAILING COND THRU 14Z. OTHERWISE..EXPECT SCT CU
ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO 7-9
KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE WIDESPREAD
AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291130
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE MAP THIS MORNING AS A DISJOINTED
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
IN THE 850 MB LAYER REMAIN EASTERLY...HAVING NEVER TURNED
SOUTHERLY...AS APPRECIABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FAILED TO DEVELOP.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THE STORY
WILL BE SIMILAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT
ECHOES HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING TO THE EAST...INDICATING THAT
THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...SMALL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 1/10 INCH.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THOUGH THE GEM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...THERE IS GOOD ECMWF/GFS
AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUR WAY BY LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A FAST-MOVER WHICH USUALLY MITIGATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY...BUT IN THIS CASE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS PROBABLY THE MOST UNCLEAR ASPECT AT THIS POINT.

UNLESS TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY...FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY APPEAR COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WORST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IFR CIGS
ARE IN PLACE AT TOI AND MGM. THESE WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE MVFR IS IN PLACE AT ANB AND MAY WORK INTO BHM
AND EET THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER 18Z THE NORTH SITES SHOULD BE
BACK TO VF...WHILE THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE CLEARING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT CLOUDS WILL HOLD FIRM AT TOI. IN FACT LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT OF IFR CIGS AT TOI. LESS CONFIDENT OF IFR AT
MGM AS THE MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE HERE BY 6Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     79  59  85  59  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    77  61  85  63  87 /  30  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  83  63  86  64  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  85  63  88  64  89 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      81  63  85  65  87 /  30  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      76  63  82  64  86 /  60  20   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  79  65  87  66  88 /  60  10   0   0  10
TROY        76  64  86  64  86 /  60  20   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 291130
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE MAP THIS MORNING AS A DISJOINTED
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
IN THE 850 MB LAYER REMAIN EASTERLY...HAVING NEVER TURNED
SOUTHERLY...AS APPRECIABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FAILED TO DEVELOP.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THE STORY
WILL BE SIMILAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT
ECHOES HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING TO THE EAST...INDICATING THAT
THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...SMALL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 1/10 INCH.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THOUGH THE GEM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...THERE IS GOOD ECMWF/GFS
AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUR WAY BY LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A FAST-MOVER WHICH USUALLY MITIGATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY...BUT IN THIS CASE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS PROBABLY THE MOST UNCLEAR ASPECT AT THIS POINT.

UNLESS TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY...FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY APPEAR COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WORST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IFR CIGS
ARE IN PLACE AT TOI AND MGM. THESE WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE MVFR IS IN PLACE AT ANB AND MAY WORK INTO BHM
AND EET THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER 18Z THE NORTH SITES SHOULD BE
BACK TO VF...WHILE THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE CLEARING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT CLOUDS WILL HOLD FIRM AT TOI. IN FACT LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT OF IFR CIGS AT TOI. LESS CONFIDENT OF IFR AT
MGM AS THE MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE HERE BY 6Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     79  59  85  59  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    77  61  85  63  87 /  30  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  83  63  86  64  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  85  63  88  64  89 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      81  63  85  65  87 /  30  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      76  63  82  64  86 /  60  20   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  79  65  87  66  88 /  60  10   0   0  10
TROY        76  64  86  64  86 /  60  20   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 291024
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
524 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY FALLING IS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS NOTED
AT 850MB. MOST OF THE PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAS NOT MADE IT
TO THE GROUND WITH THE HIGHER CEILING HEIGHTS. THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE FOG POTENTIAL AT BAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST THAT
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND A TROUGH IN THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG FOR
MAINLY VALLEYS/BODIES OF WATER LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
DECREASE...WINDS SLACK AND MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS MOISTURE COULD
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR FOG EVEN THOUGH NOT MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MID 80S/ TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. THE EURO BRINGS IN THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND ALSO WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING...AS IT HAS CHANGED
ON MODEL RUNS AND DIFFERED BETWEEN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER CAPE
AND SHEAR...CAPE +1000 J/KG AND SHEAR 30-40KTS 0-6KM. WILL LEAN
MORESO WITH THE EURO ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMING IN FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EURO PARAMETERS FOR THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURS AFTN/EVENING FOR ANY PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, LOWS ~50. AS FOR THE GRIDS...HAD TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THE DRY AIR BEHIND IT. ALSO RAISED UP THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1241 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH SPOTTY -RA PSBL.  SCT
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT NELY FLOW.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  59  87  59 /  20  10  10  10
SHOALS        86  57  88  60 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      83  60  85  61 /  20  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  83  57  85  57 /  20  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   82  56  85  59 /  20  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    82  58  85  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291024
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
524 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY FALLING IS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS NOTED
AT 850MB. MOST OF THE PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAS NOT MADE IT
TO THE GROUND WITH THE HIGHER CEILING HEIGHTS. THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE FOG POTENTIAL AT BAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST THAT
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND A TROUGH IN THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG FOR
MAINLY VALLEYS/BODIES OF WATER LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
DECREASE...WINDS SLACK AND MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS MOISTURE COULD
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR FOG EVEN THOUGH NOT MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MID 80S/ TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. THE EURO BRINGS IN THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND ALSO WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING...AS IT HAS CHANGED
ON MODEL RUNS AND DIFFERED BETWEEN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER CAPE
AND SHEAR...CAPE +1000 J/KG AND SHEAR 30-40KTS 0-6KM. WILL LEAN
MORESO WITH THE EURO ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMING IN FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EURO PARAMETERS FOR THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURS AFTN/EVENING FOR ANY PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, LOWS ~50. AS FOR THE GRIDS...HAD TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THE DRY AIR BEHIND IT. ALSO RAISED UP THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1241 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH SPOTTY -RA PSBL.  SCT
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT NELY FLOW.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  59  87  59 /  20  10  10  10
SHOALS        86  57  88  60 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      83  60  85  61 /  20  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  83  57  85  57 /  20  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   82  56  85  59 /  20  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    82  58  85  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 290947
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
447 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WITH BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 2.1 INCHES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE FAVORED OVER
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-65. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND POPS FROM 20-30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO
50-60 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA. A LINGERING LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
AND A SHALLOW MOIST SURFACE LAYER MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURE-WISE... HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY WERE
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS...FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
HIGHER POP AREAS...TO THE MID 80S OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. /21

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
IS SLOW TO MOVE OFF...LIMITING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES. ENERGY DOES SWING THROUGH THE
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY EXITING THE TROUGH AND MORE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN TROUGH...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS ENERGY ALSO SHIFTS A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD...RESTORING A
MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO
MISS/AL. FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE RE-INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FA. WITH THE FA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF
MEX...AND A RIDGELINE STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...A SECOND ROUND OF ENERGY THAT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SHORT TERM FINALLY HAS ENOUGH OOMPH TO BEGIN TO PUSH THE WHOLE
RIDGE EAST. THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ORGANIZES A BIT MORE...THEN HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE MOISTURE GETTING GETTING DRAWN OFF THE GULF INCREASES...WITH
TEMPS FOR THE FA CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL. POPS ALSO ARE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...AND WITH INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE...
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME OF THESE RUMBLERS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SOME ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT THIS
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE FA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TIMING IS A BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS...WITH
THE FRONT STRETCHED N/S ACROSS THE FA AT 00Z SATURDAY...BUT NOT BY
MUCH. TEMPS AND POPS ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. SIGNIFICANT JET ENHANCEMENT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA. AM
NOT RULING OUT A STORM OR TWO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE FRIDAY...BUT
AM NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVEN. INSTABILITY RISES TO
AROUND 2000J/KG...BUT WIND SHEAR REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH
VALUES LESS THAN 100 M**2/S**2 OVER MOST OF THE FA. BEST CHANCE WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN MOST-SECTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH THE CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...IF ANY ROWDINESS OCCURS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS MORE ENERGY REPLACES THAT WHICH EXITS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HANGS AROUND FOR AWHILE...THEN HEADS OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING MONDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN FOR THE FA COMES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50/UPPER 40S OVER MOST
OF THE FA. DAYTIME HIGHS DROP TO AROUND SEASONAL FOR SAT AND
SUN...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
29.12Z ISSUANCE...A LARGE AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND
PERSISTS OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL NEED TO
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY
TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY MID TO LATE WEEK. OFFSHORE WIND FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN
THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  68  87  69  87 /  40  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   82  70  86  70  86 /  60  30  20  10  20
DESTIN      81  72  85  71  85 /  70  30  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   83  65  87  66  88 /  40  20  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  86  65  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN      85  64  87  66  88 /  30  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   82  68  86  67  88 /  60  20  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/16







000
FXUS64 KMOB 290947
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
447 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WITH BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 2.1 INCHES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE FAVORED OVER
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-65. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND POPS FROM 20-30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO
50-60 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA. A LINGERING LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
AND A SHALLOW MOIST SURFACE LAYER MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURE-WISE... HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY WERE
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS...FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
HIGHER POP AREAS...TO THE MID 80S OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. /21

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
IS SLOW TO MOVE OFF...LIMITING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES. ENERGY DOES SWING THROUGH THE
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY EXITING THE TROUGH AND MORE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN TROUGH...IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS ENERGY ALSO SHIFTS A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD...RESTORING A
MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO
MISS/AL. FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE RE-INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FA. WITH THE FA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF
MEX...AND A RIDGELINE STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...A SECOND ROUND OF ENERGY THAT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SHORT TERM FINALLY HAS ENOUGH OOMPH TO BEGIN TO PUSH THE WHOLE
RIDGE EAST. THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ORGANIZES A BIT MORE...THEN HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE MOISTURE GETTING GETTING DRAWN OFF THE GULF INCREASES...WITH
TEMPS FOR THE FA CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL. POPS ALSO ARE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL...AND WITH INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE...
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME OF THESE RUMBLERS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SOME ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT THIS
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE FA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TIMING IS A BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS...WITH
THE FRONT STRETCHED N/S ACROSS THE FA AT 00Z SATURDAY...BUT NOT BY
MUCH. TEMPS AND POPS ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. SIGNIFICANT JET ENHANCEMENT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA. AM
NOT RULING OUT A STORM OR TWO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE FRIDAY...BUT
AM NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVEN. INSTABILITY RISES TO
AROUND 2000J/KG...BUT WIND SHEAR REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH
VALUES LESS THAN 100 M**2/S**2 OVER MOST OF THE FA. BEST CHANCE WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN MOST-SECTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH THE CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...IF ANY ROWDINESS OCCURS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS MORE ENERGY REPLACES THAT WHICH EXITS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HANGS AROUND FOR AWHILE...THEN HEADS OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING MONDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN FOR THE FA COMES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50/UPPER 40S OVER MOST
OF THE FA. DAYTIME HIGHS DROP TO AROUND SEASONAL FOR SAT AND
SUN...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
29.12Z ISSUANCE...A LARGE AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND
PERSISTS OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL NEED TO
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY
TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY MID TO LATE WEEK. OFFSHORE WIND FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN
THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  68  87  69  87 /  40  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   82  70  86  70  86 /  60  30  20  10  20
DESTIN      81  72  85  71  85 /  70  30  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   83  65  87  66  88 /  40  20  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  86  65  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN      85  64  87  66  88 /  30  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   82  68  86  67  88 /  60  20  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/16






000
FXUS64 KBMX 290920
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
420 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE MAP THIS MORNING AS A DISJOINTED
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
IN THE 850 MB LAYER REMAIN EASTERLY...HAVING NEVER TURNED
SOUTHERLY...AS APPRECIABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FAILED TO DEVELOP.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THE STORY
WILL BE SIMILAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT
ECHOES HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING TO THE EAST...INDICATING THAT
THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...SMALL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 1/10 INCH.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THOUGH THE GEM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...THERE IS GOOD ECMWF/GFS
AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUR WAY BY LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A FAST-MOVER WHICH USUALLY MITIGATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY...BUT IN THIS CASE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS PROBABLY THE MOST UNCLEAR ASPECT AT THIS POINT.

UNLESS TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY...FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY APPEAR COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO OVEREMPHASIZE THE RAIN CHANCES...AND
ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ITS HARD TO GO AGAINST THE MODELS` INSISTENCE
ON THE CLOUDS...BUT BY NOW IT IS LESS HARD TO GO AGAINST THE
MODELS` DEPICTION OF THE RAIN. WILL DO MY BEST WITH THE OVERNIGHT
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO RESIGN MYSELF TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE NATURE OF SAID FORECAST.

HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET RID OF THIS MESS BY 00Z TOMORROW...WITH A
MUCH EASIER FORECAST OF VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  59  85  59  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    80  61  85  63  87 /  30  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  82  63  86  64  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  86  63  88  64  89 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      82  63  85  65  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      79  63  82  64  86 /  50  20   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  83  65  87  66  88 /  40  10   0   0  10
TROY        81  64  86  64  86 /  50  20   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/61





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290920
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
420 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE MAP THIS MORNING AS A DISJOINTED
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
IN THE 850 MB LAYER REMAIN EASTERLY...HAVING NEVER TURNED
SOUTHERLY...AS APPRECIABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FAILED TO DEVELOP.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THE STORY
WILL BE SIMILAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT
ECHOES HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING TO THE EAST...INDICATING THAT
THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...SMALL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 1/10 INCH.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THOUGH THE GEM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...THERE IS GOOD ECMWF/GFS
AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUR WAY BY LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A FAST-MOVER WHICH USUALLY MITIGATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY...BUT IN THIS CASE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS PROBABLY THE MOST UNCLEAR ASPECT AT THIS POINT.

UNLESS TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY...FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY APPEAR COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO OVEREMPHASIZE THE RAIN CHANCES...AND
ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ITS HARD TO GO AGAINST THE MODELS` INSISTENCE
ON THE CLOUDS...BUT BY NOW IT IS LESS HARD TO GO AGAINST THE
MODELS` DEPICTION OF THE RAIN. WILL DO MY BEST WITH THE OVERNIGHT
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO RESIGN MYSELF TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE NATURE OF SAID FORECAST.

HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET RID OF THIS MESS BY 00Z TOMORROW...WITH A
MUCH EASIER FORECAST OF VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  59  85  59  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    80  61  85  63  87 /  30  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  82  63  86  64  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  86  63  88  64  89 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      82  63  85  65  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      79  63  82  64  86 /  50  20   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  83  65  87  66  88 /  40  10   0   0  10
TROY        81  64  86  64  86 /  50  20   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/61






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