Home > Products > State Listing > Alabama Data
Latest:
 AFDHUN |  AFDBMX |  AFDMOB |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 030204
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
904 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT THIS
TIME AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS. FOR THE LOCAL AREA...A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE IN LAUDERDALE COUNTY AL AND COMING INTO LINCOLN COUNTY TN.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA AS WELL. STILL EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND JUST LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THEY
ARE JUST SCATTERED OVER OUR CWA AT THE MOMENT. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER 06Z WHICH HIRES GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS.

ANOTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THEY
HAVE NOT DECREASED AS QUICKLY AS ORIGINALLY PLANNED AND LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS A FEW DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LIKELY
DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...PRECIP AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE HAVE BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE DEG IN MOST LOCATIONS.

LN

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

A WET, MEAN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. CURRENTLY, A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS WITHIN AN
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. COMPRESSED BTWN
THE MEAN TROUGH AND RIDGE ARE SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE TN/MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MCS INDUCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL AND
SHOULD PERSIST FOR INITIAL 4 HOURS OF TAF PERIOD AS STRATOCU CIGS
BECOME ESTABLISHED ARND 4-5 KFT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSRA ACROSS TN EARLY THIS EVENING MAY GENERATE
AN OUTFLOW BNDRY WHICH WILL SINK SWD INTO NRN AL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRI MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT 02/04Z...WITH
TEMPO FOR TSRA AND PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN 10-14Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OR SHIFT SWD BY LATE MORNING...WITH CONDS
IMPROVING DURING THE AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW-WSW WITH
5-10 KT FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12G20 KTS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRI
MORNING.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS NE AL
AND S MIDDLE TN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO NORTH GA AS A WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER S TN WILL SHIFTS EAST. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN MAY CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER S TN/NE AL. THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ARRIVES (OVER S TN AND NE AL) MAY BE A COMBINATION OF AN
ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUTRUNNING THE
CLUSTER PRODUCING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACTUALLY COLLAPSE UPON ARRIVAL DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
EASTERLY BULK SHEAR VALUES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT (STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS).

THEN, FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AS MENTIONED EARLY
IN THE DISCUSSION, THERE ARE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
AND MCS INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FRIDAY`S EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
SOME INHIBITION AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE DAY UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES THE TN VALLEY AGAIN. THEN, ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY OVER S TN AND WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
FURTHERMORE, A STRONG LLJ STRETCHING FROM THE NW GULF TO THE TN/MID
MS RIVER VALLEY ALREADY WILL HAVE CREATED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH
PWATS CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY CENTER OVER THE PROGRESSION OF
A SHEARED TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE TN VALLEY
WHICH COULD SEND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD. THEN, AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY, YET
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE ACROSS AR/N MS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM N MS/W TN. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN PUSH
OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY EVENING. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
THAT THE TIMING OF THESE THUNDERSTORM "EPISODES" HAS BEEN CHANGING
(AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE AGAIN) FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT. SO,
THOSE ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS EACH DAY AS THIS SCENARIO PROGRESSES. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE. THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO A BREAK IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SO, DESPITE THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE
LOW 80S, THERE COULD BE HIGHER DAYTIME HIGHS IN BETWEEN ANY
BREAKS/QUICK CLEARINGS THAT OCCUR.

THEN, WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN, MONDAY MAY BE THE TRANSITION DAY WHERE POPS MAY NEED TO BE
TAILORED DOWNWARD. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT HIGH END POPS DUE TO THE
COMPLEX PATTERN TRANSITION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR OTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
EXITING TROUGH. SPEAKING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MAY YIELD MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DUE THE RIDGE THAT
HAD BEEN RELEGATED TO THE CARIBBEAN AND BERMUDA FINALLY BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN THE RETURN
OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES (IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S) AND LOWER POPS BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030004
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
704 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

A WET, MEAN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. CURRENTLY, A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS WITHIN AN
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. COMPRESSED BTWN
THE MEAN TROUGH AND RIDGE ARE SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE TN/MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MCS INDUCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS NE AL
AND S MIDDLE TN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO NORTH GA AS A WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER S TN WILL SHIFTS EAST. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN MAY CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER S TN/NE AL. THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ARRIVES (OVER S TN AND NE AL) MAY BE A COMBINATION OF AN
ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUTRUNNING THE
CLUSTER PRODUCING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACTUALLY COLLAPSE UPON ARRIVAL DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
EASTERLY BULK SHEAR VALUES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT (STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS).

THEN, FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AS MENTIONED EARLY
IN THE DISCUSSION, THERE ARE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
AND MCS INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FRIDAY`S EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
SOME INHIBITION AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE DAY UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES THE TN VALLEY AGAIN. THEN, ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY OVER S TN AND WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
FURTHERMORE, A STRONG LLJ STRETCHING FROM THE NW GULF TO THE TN/MID
MS RIVER VALLEY ALREADY WILL HAVE CREATED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH
PWATS CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY CENTER OVER THE PROGRESSION OF
A SHEARED TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE TN VALLEY
WHICH COULD SEND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD. THEN, AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY, YET
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE ACROSS AR/N MS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM N MS/W TN. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN PUSH
OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY EVENING. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
THAT THE TIMING OF THESE THUNDERSTORM "EPISODES" HAS BEEN CHANGING
(AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE AGAIN) FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT. SO,
THOSE ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS EACH DAY AS THIS SCENARIO PROGRESSES. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE. THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO A BREAK IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SO, DESPITE THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE
LOW 80S, THERE COULD BE HIGHER DAYTIME HIGHS IN BETWEEN ANY
BREAKS/QUICK CLEARINGS THAT OCCUR.

THEN, WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN, MONDAY MAY BE THE TRANSITION DAY WHERE POPS MAY NEED TO BE
TAILORED DOWNWARD. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT HIGH END POPS DUE TO THE
COMPLEX PATTERN TRANSITION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR OTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
EXITING TROUGH. SPEAKING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MAY YIELD MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DUE THE RIDGE THAT
HAD BEEN RELEGATED TO THE CARIBBEAN AND BERMUDA FINALLY BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN THE RETURN
OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES (IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S) AND LOWER POPS BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL AND
SHOULD PERSIST FOR INITIAL 4 HOURS OF TAF PERIOD AS STRATOCU CIGS
BECOME ESTABLISHED ARND 4-5 KFT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSRA ACROSS TN EARLY THIS EVENING MAY GENERATE
AN OUTFLOW BNDRY WHICH WILL SINK SWD INTO NRN AL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRI MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT 02/04Z...WITH
TEMPO FOR TSRA AND PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN 10-14Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OR SHIFT SWD BY LATE MORNING...WITH CONDS
IMPROVING DURING THE AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW-WSW WITH
5-10 KT FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12G20 KTS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRI
MORNING.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030004
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
704 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

A WET, MEAN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. CURRENTLY, A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS WITHIN AN
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. COMPRESSED BTWN
THE MEAN TROUGH AND RIDGE ARE SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE TN/MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MCS INDUCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS NE AL
AND S MIDDLE TN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO NORTH GA AS A WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER S TN WILL SHIFTS EAST. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN MAY CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER S TN/NE AL. THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ARRIVES (OVER S TN AND NE AL) MAY BE A COMBINATION OF AN
ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUTRUNNING THE
CLUSTER PRODUCING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACTUALLY COLLAPSE UPON ARRIVAL DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
EASTERLY BULK SHEAR VALUES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT (STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS).

THEN, FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AS MENTIONED EARLY
IN THE DISCUSSION, THERE ARE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
AND MCS INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FRIDAY`S EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
SOME INHIBITION AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE DAY UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES THE TN VALLEY AGAIN. THEN, ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY OVER S TN AND WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
FURTHERMORE, A STRONG LLJ STRETCHING FROM THE NW GULF TO THE TN/MID
MS RIVER VALLEY ALREADY WILL HAVE CREATED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH
PWATS CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY CENTER OVER THE PROGRESSION OF
A SHEARED TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE TN VALLEY
WHICH COULD SEND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD. THEN, AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY, YET
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE ACROSS AR/N MS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM N MS/W TN. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN PUSH
OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY EVENING. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
THAT THE TIMING OF THESE THUNDERSTORM "EPISODES" HAS BEEN CHANGING
(AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE AGAIN) FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT. SO,
THOSE ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS EACH DAY AS THIS SCENARIO PROGRESSES. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE. THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO A BREAK IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SO, DESPITE THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE
LOW 80S, THERE COULD BE HIGHER DAYTIME HIGHS IN BETWEEN ANY
BREAKS/QUICK CLEARINGS THAT OCCUR.

THEN, WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN, MONDAY MAY BE THE TRANSITION DAY WHERE POPS MAY NEED TO BE
TAILORED DOWNWARD. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT HIGH END POPS DUE TO THE
COMPLEX PATTERN TRANSITION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR OTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
EXITING TROUGH. SPEAKING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MAY YIELD MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DUE THE RIDGE THAT
HAD BEEN RELEGATED TO THE CARIBBEAN AND BERMUDA FINALLY BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN THE RETURN
OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES (IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S) AND LOWER POPS BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL AND
SHOULD PERSIST FOR INITIAL 4 HOURS OF TAF PERIOD AS STRATOCU CIGS
BECOME ESTABLISHED ARND 4-5 KFT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSRA ACROSS TN EARLY THIS EVENING MAY GENERATE
AN OUTFLOW BNDRY WHICH WILL SINK SWD INTO NRN AL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRI MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT 02/04Z...WITH
TEMPO FOR TSRA AND PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN 10-14Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OR SHIFT SWD BY LATE MORNING...WITH CONDS
IMPROVING DURING THE AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW-WSW WITH
5-10 KT FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12G20 KTS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRI
MORNING.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030004
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
704 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

A WET, MEAN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. CURRENTLY, A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS WITHIN AN
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. COMPRESSED BTWN
THE MEAN TROUGH AND RIDGE ARE SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE TN/MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MCS INDUCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS NE AL
AND S MIDDLE TN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO NORTH GA AS A WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER S TN WILL SHIFTS EAST. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN MAY CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER S TN/NE AL. THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ARRIVES (OVER S TN AND NE AL) MAY BE A COMBINATION OF AN
ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUTRUNNING THE
CLUSTER PRODUCING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACTUALLY COLLAPSE UPON ARRIVAL DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
EASTERLY BULK SHEAR VALUES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT (STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS).

THEN, FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AS MENTIONED EARLY
IN THE DISCUSSION, THERE ARE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
AND MCS INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FRIDAY`S EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
SOME INHIBITION AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE DAY UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES THE TN VALLEY AGAIN. THEN, ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY OVER S TN AND WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
FURTHERMORE, A STRONG LLJ STRETCHING FROM THE NW GULF TO THE TN/MID
MS RIVER VALLEY ALREADY WILL HAVE CREATED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH
PWATS CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY CENTER OVER THE PROGRESSION OF
A SHEARED TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE TN VALLEY
WHICH COULD SEND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD. THEN, AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY, YET
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE ACROSS AR/N MS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM N MS/W TN. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN PUSH
OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY EVENING. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
THAT THE TIMING OF THESE THUNDERSTORM "EPISODES" HAS BEEN CHANGING
(AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE AGAIN) FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT. SO,
THOSE ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS EACH DAY AS THIS SCENARIO PROGRESSES. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE. THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO A BREAK IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SO, DESPITE THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE
LOW 80S, THERE COULD BE HIGHER DAYTIME HIGHS IN BETWEEN ANY
BREAKS/QUICK CLEARINGS THAT OCCUR.

THEN, WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN, MONDAY MAY BE THE TRANSITION DAY WHERE POPS MAY NEED TO BE
TAILORED DOWNWARD. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT HIGH END POPS DUE TO THE
COMPLEX PATTERN TRANSITION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR OTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
EXITING TROUGH. SPEAKING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MAY YIELD MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DUE THE RIDGE THAT
HAD BEEN RELEGATED TO THE CARIBBEAN AND BERMUDA FINALLY BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN THE RETURN
OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES (IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S) AND LOWER POPS BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL AND
SHOULD PERSIST FOR INITIAL 4 HOURS OF TAF PERIOD AS STRATOCU CIGS
BECOME ESTABLISHED ARND 4-5 KFT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSRA ACROSS TN EARLY THIS EVENING MAY GENERATE
AN OUTFLOW BNDRY WHICH WILL SINK SWD INTO NRN AL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRI MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT 02/04Z...WITH
TEMPO FOR TSRA AND PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN 10-14Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OR SHIFT SWD BY LATE MORNING...WITH CONDS
IMPROVING DURING THE AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW-WSW WITH
5-10 KT FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12G20 KTS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRI
MORNING.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030004
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
704 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

A WET, MEAN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. CURRENTLY, A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS WITHIN AN
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. COMPRESSED BTWN
THE MEAN TROUGH AND RIDGE ARE SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE TN/MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MCS INDUCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS NE AL
AND S MIDDLE TN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO NORTH GA AS A WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER S TN WILL SHIFTS EAST. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN MAY CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER S TN/NE AL. THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ARRIVES (OVER S TN AND NE AL) MAY BE A COMBINATION OF AN
ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUTRUNNING THE
CLUSTER PRODUCING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACTUALLY COLLAPSE UPON ARRIVAL DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
EASTERLY BULK SHEAR VALUES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT (STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS).

THEN, FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AS MENTIONED EARLY
IN THE DISCUSSION, THERE ARE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
AND MCS INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FRIDAY`S EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
SOME INHIBITION AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE DAY UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES THE TN VALLEY AGAIN. THEN, ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY OVER S TN AND WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
FURTHERMORE, A STRONG LLJ STRETCHING FROM THE NW GULF TO THE TN/MID
MS RIVER VALLEY ALREADY WILL HAVE CREATED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH
PWATS CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY CENTER OVER THE PROGRESSION OF
A SHEARED TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE TN VALLEY
WHICH COULD SEND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD. THEN, AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY, YET
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE ACROSS AR/N MS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM N MS/W TN. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN PUSH
OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY EVENING. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
THAT THE TIMING OF THESE THUNDERSTORM "EPISODES" HAS BEEN CHANGING
(AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE AGAIN) FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT. SO,
THOSE ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS EACH DAY AS THIS SCENARIO PROGRESSES. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE. THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO A BREAK IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SO, DESPITE THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE
LOW 80S, THERE COULD BE HIGHER DAYTIME HIGHS IN BETWEEN ANY
BREAKS/QUICK CLEARINGS THAT OCCUR.

THEN, WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN, MONDAY MAY BE THE TRANSITION DAY WHERE POPS MAY NEED TO BE
TAILORED DOWNWARD. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT HIGH END POPS DUE TO THE
COMPLEX PATTERN TRANSITION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR OTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
EXITING TROUGH. SPEAKING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MAY YIELD MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DUE THE RIDGE THAT
HAD BEEN RELEGATED TO THE CARIBBEAN AND BERMUDA FINALLY BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN THE RETURN
OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES (IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S) AND LOWER POPS BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL AND
SHOULD PERSIST FOR INITIAL 4 HOURS OF TAF PERIOD AS STRATOCU CIGS
BECOME ESTABLISHED ARND 4-5 KFT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSRA ACROSS TN EARLY THIS EVENING MAY GENERATE
AN OUTFLOW BNDRY WHICH WILL SINK SWD INTO NRN AL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRI MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT 02/04Z...WITH
TEMPO FOR TSRA AND PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN 10-14Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OR SHIFT SWD BY LATE MORNING...WITH CONDS
IMPROVING DURING THE AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW-WSW WITH
5-10 KT FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12G20 KTS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRI
MORNING.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 022355
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND PARCEL
BUOYANCY VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD...AND THE RADAR IS ALMOST
RAIN FREE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT MID AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH WIND GUSTS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP A ZONAL BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
NORTH ALABAMA BY 9PM THIS EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN
STORM INTENSITY AND CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH ALABAMA.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE ZONE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY NEXT WEEK THE MAIN TROF
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THAN THE GFS MODEL. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF FORECASTING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT AS DRY AS THE EURO MODEL.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP SO NO VIS ISSUES. MODELS ARE PERFORMING
POORLY WITH RAINFALL SO BEING VERY BASIC WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT PATTERN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION AT ANYTIME OF THE DAY BUT
NOTHING CURRENTLY AROUND THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 022355
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND PARCEL
BUOYANCY VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD...AND THE RADAR IS ALMOST
RAIN FREE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT MID AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH WIND GUSTS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP A ZONAL BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
NORTH ALABAMA BY 9PM THIS EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN
STORM INTENSITY AND CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH ALABAMA.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE ZONE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY NEXT WEEK THE MAIN TROF
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THAN THE GFS MODEL. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF FORECASTING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT AS DRY AS THE EURO MODEL.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP SO NO VIS ISSUES. MODELS ARE PERFORMING
POORLY WITH RAINFALL SO BEING VERY BASIC WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT PATTERN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION AT ANYTIME OF THE DAY BUT
NOTHING CURRENTLY AROUND THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 022100
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AFTER A ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FCST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THINGS HAVE IMPROVED RAPIDLY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK BLOWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
A MCS THAT WAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
MODERATED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...SO ATMOSPHERE HAS
NOT HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME AS UNSTABLE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENDED...NO ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON AREA RADARS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PCPN OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK OUTFLOW
FROM THE EARLIER MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PRIMARILY 20
PERCENT OR LESS POPS TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS A MODERATELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS GETS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE FEW STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TOMORROW UP OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE...AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER UP
THAT WAY (MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 84). A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BUT STILL UPPER 80S COASTAL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE VIRGINIAS. SOME INDICATIONS EXIST
THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST...ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG THIS FRONT. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION TAPS DEEP MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR) WHICH
MAY INITIATE MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT. THESE SUMMER- TIME NOCTURNAL STORMS CAN BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
PRODUCERS...CAN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.

LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...CONTINUES
TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHEAST US. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES AS IT DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON THE FOURTH. MODEST LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...COUPLED
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY MAY VERY
WELL BRING SOME HEADACHES FOR FOURTH OF JULY OUTDOOR EVENTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
MAJOR SAFETY HAZARD IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS ON JULY 4TH...SO
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER IN THE CASE OF THREATENING
WEATHER.

UPPER TROF REMAINS SLIPS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN BY MID
WEEK AS A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY.
SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
02/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY
ISOLATED STORMS). 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE PRIMARY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS
REACH BETWEEN 110 AND 120 FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE VERY
HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...DISPERSION RATINGS ABOVE 80 ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  90  75 /  10  10  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  77  90  76 /  10  10  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  79  90  78 /  10  10  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  72  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  72  92  72  90  72 /  20  10  40  50  40
CAMDEN      72  92  72  91  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
CRESTVIEW   74  92  71  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 022100
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AFTER A ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FCST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THINGS HAVE IMPROVED RAPIDLY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK BLOWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
A MCS THAT WAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
MODERATED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...SO ATMOSPHERE HAS
NOT HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME AS UNSTABLE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENDED...NO ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON AREA RADARS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PCPN OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK OUTFLOW
FROM THE EARLIER MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PRIMARILY 20
PERCENT OR LESS POPS TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS A MODERATELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS GETS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE FEW STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TOMORROW UP OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE...AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER UP
THAT WAY (MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 84). A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BUT STILL UPPER 80S COASTAL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE VIRGINIAS. SOME INDICATIONS EXIST
THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST...ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG THIS FRONT. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION TAPS DEEP MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR) WHICH
MAY INITIATE MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT. THESE SUMMER- TIME NOCTURNAL STORMS CAN BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
PRODUCERS...CAN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.

LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...CONTINUES
TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHEAST US. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES AS IT DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON THE FOURTH. MODEST LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...COUPLED
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY MAY VERY
WELL BRING SOME HEADACHES FOR FOURTH OF JULY OUTDOOR EVENTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
MAJOR SAFETY HAZARD IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS ON JULY 4TH...SO
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER IN THE CASE OF THREATENING
WEATHER.

UPPER TROF REMAINS SLIPS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN BY MID
WEEK AS A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY.
SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
02/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY
ISOLATED STORMS). 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE PRIMARY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS
REACH BETWEEN 110 AND 120 FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE VERY
HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...DISPERSION RATINGS ABOVE 80 ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  90  75 /  10  10  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  77  90  76 /  10  10  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  79  90  78 /  10  10  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  72  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  72  92  72  90  72 /  20  10  40  50  40
CAMDEN      72  92  72  91  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
CRESTVIEW   74  92  71  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 022100
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AFTER A ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FCST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THINGS HAVE IMPROVED RAPIDLY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK BLOWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
A MCS THAT WAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
MODERATED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...SO ATMOSPHERE HAS
NOT HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME AS UNSTABLE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENDED...NO ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON AREA RADARS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PCPN OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK OUTFLOW
FROM THE EARLIER MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PRIMARILY 20
PERCENT OR LESS POPS TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS A MODERATELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS GETS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE FEW STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TOMORROW UP OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE...AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER UP
THAT WAY (MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 84). A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BUT STILL UPPER 80S COASTAL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE VIRGINIAS. SOME INDICATIONS EXIST
THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST...ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG THIS FRONT. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION TAPS DEEP MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR) WHICH
MAY INITIATE MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT. THESE SUMMER- TIME NOCTURNAL STORMS CAN BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
PRODUCERS...CAN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.

LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...CONTINUES
TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHEAST US. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES AS IT DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON THE FOURTH. MODEST LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...COUPLED
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY MAY VERY
WELL BRING SOME HEADACHES FOR FOURTH OF JULY OUTDOOR EVENTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
MAJOR SAFETY HAZARD IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS ON JULY 4TH...SO
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER IN THE CASE OF THREATENING
WEATHER.

UPPER TROF REMAINS SLIPS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN BY MID
WEEK AS A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY.
SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
02/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY
ISOLATED STORMS). 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE PRIMARY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS
REACH BETWEEN 110 AND 120 FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE VERY
HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...DISPERSION RATINGS ABOVE 80 ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  90  75 /  10  10  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  77  90  76 /  10  10  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  79  90  78 /  10  10  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  72  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  72  92  72  90  72 /  20  10  40  50  40
CAMDEN      72  92  72  91  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
CRESTVIEW   74  92  71  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 022100
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AFTER A ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FCST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THINGS HAVE IMPROVED RAPIDLY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK BLOWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
A MCS THAT WAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
MODERATED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...SO ATMOSPHERE HAS
NOT HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME AS UNSTABLE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENDED...NO ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON AREA RADARS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PCPN OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK OUTFLOW
FROM THE EARLIER MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PRIMARILY 20
PERCENT OR LESS POPS TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS A MODERATELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS GETS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE FEW STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TOMORROW UP OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE...AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER UP
THAT WAY (MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 84). A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BUT STILL UPPER 80S COASTAL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE VIRGINIAS. SOME INDICATIONS EXIST
THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST...ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG THIS FRONT. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION TAPS DEEP MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR) WHICH
MAY INITIATE MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT. THESE SUMMER- TIME NOCTURNAL STORMS CAN BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
PRODUCERS...CAN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.

LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...CONTINUES
TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHEAST US. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES AS IT DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON THE FOURTH. MODEST LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...COUPLED
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY MAY VERY
WELL BRING SOME HEADACHES FOR FOURTH OF JULY OUTDOOR EVENTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
MAJOR SAFETY HAZARD IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS ON JULY 4TH...SO
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER IN THE CASE OF THREATENING
WEATHER.

UPPER TROF REMAINS SLIPS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN BY MID
WEEK AS A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY.
SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
02/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY
ISOLATED STORMS). 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE PRIMARY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS
REACH BETWEEN 110 AND 120 FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE VERY
HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...DISPERSION RATINGS ABOVE 80 ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  90  75 /  10  10  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  77  90  76 /  10  10  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  79  90  78 /  10  10  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  72  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  72  92  72  90  72 /  20  10  40  50  40
CAMDEN      72  92  72  91  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
CRESTVIEW   74  92  71  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 022007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND PARCEL
BUOYANCY VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD...AND THE RADAR IS ALMOST
RAIN FREE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT MID AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH WIND GUSTS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP A ZONAL BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
NORTH ALABAMA BY 9PM THIS EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN
STORM INTENSITY AND CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH ALABAMA.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE ZONE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY NEXT WEEK THE MAIN TROF
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THAN THE GFS MODEL. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF FORECASTING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT AS DRY AS THE EURO MODEL.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  82  69 /  70  60  60  70  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  82  70 /  50  60  60  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  88  72  83  71 /  50  60  60  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  90  72  85  72 /  40  40  60  60  50
CALERA      73  88  71  84  71 /  40  50  60  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  85  72 /  20  30  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  92  73  89  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
TROY        72  92  72  90  72 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021926
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WET, MEAN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. CURRENTLY, A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS WITHIN AN
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. COMPRESSED BTWN
THE MEAN TROUGH AND RIDGE ARE SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE TN/MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MCS INDUCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS NE AL
AND S MIDDLE TN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO NORTH GA AS A WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER S TN WILL SHIFTS EAST. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN MAY CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER S TN/NE AL. THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ARRIVES (OVER S TN AND NE AL) MAY BE A COMBINATION OF AN
ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUTRUNNING THE
CLUSTER PRODUCING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACTUALLY COLLAPSE UPON ARRIVAL DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
EASTERLY BULK SHEAR VALUES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT (STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS).

THEN, FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AS MENTIONED EARLY
IN THE DISCUSSION, THERE ARE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
AND MCS INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FRIDAY`S EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
SOME INHIBITION AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE DAY UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES THE TN VALLEY AGAIN. THEN, ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY OVER S TN AND WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
FURTHERMORE, A STRONG LLJ STRETCHING FROM THE NW GULF TO THE TN/MID
MS RIVER VALLEY ALREADY WILL HAVE CREATED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH
PWATS CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY CENTER OVER THE PROGRESSION OF
A SHEARED TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE TN VALLEY
WHICH COULD SEND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD. THEN, AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY, YET
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE ACROSS AR/N MS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM N MS/W TN. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN PUSH
OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY EVENING. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
THAT THE TIMING OF THESE THUNDERSTORM "EPISODES" HAS BEEN CHANGING
(AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE AGAIN) FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT. SO,
THOSE ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS EACH DAY AS THIS SCENARIO PROGRESSES. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE. THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO A BREAK IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SO, DESPITE THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE
LOW 80S, THERE COULD BE HIGHER DAYTIME HIGHS IN BETWEEN ANY
BREAKS/QUICK CLEARINGS THAT OCCUR.

THEN, WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN, MONDAY MAY BE THE TRANSITION DAY WHERE POPS MAY NEED TO BE
TAILORED DOWNWARD. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT HIGH END POPS DUE TO THE
COMPLEX PATTERN TRANSITION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR OTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
EXITING TROUGH. SPEAKING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MAY YIELD MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DUE THE RIDGE THAT
HAD BEEN RELEGATED TO THE CARIBBEAN AND BERMUDA FINALLY BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN THE RETURN
OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES (IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S) AND LOWER POPS BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1244 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION COMBINING WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
TO BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE
CHALLENGES WITH TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
THROUGH A RATHER LARGE PORTION OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AFTN AT BOTH TAF SITES AND INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
ACCORDINGLY. PROBABILTIIES INCREASE AGAIN IN A WINDOW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED ANOTHER THREAT PERIOD THEN AS
WELL.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  85  69  82 /  80  60  50  60
SHOALS        70  84  70  82 /  70  60  50  60
VINEMONT      69  84  69  81 /  70  60  50  60
FAYETTEVILLE  69  83  68  81 /  80  60  50  60
ALBERTVILLE   69  82  69  82 /  80  60  50  60
FORT PAYNE    68  83  68  81 /  80  60  50  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021926
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WET, MEAN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. CURRENTLY, A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS WITHIN AN
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. COMPRESSED BTWN
THE MEAN TROUGH AND RIDGE ARE SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE TN/MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MCS INDUCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS NE AL
AND S MIDDLE TN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO NORTH GA AS A WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER S TN WILL SHIFTS EAST. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN MAY CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER S TN/NE AL. THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ARRIVES (OVER S TN AND NE AL) MAY BE A COMBINATION OF AN
ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUTRUNNING THE
CLUSTER PRODUCING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACTUALLY COLLAPSE UPON ARRIVAL DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
EASTERLY BULK SHEAR VALUES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT (STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS).

THEN, FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AS MENTIONED EARLY
IN THE DISCUSSION, THERE ARE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
AND MCS INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FRIDAY`S EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
SOME INHIBITION AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE DAY UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES THE TN VALLEY AGAIN. THEN, ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY OVER S TN AND WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
FURTHERMORE, A STRONG LLJ STRETCHING FROM THE NW GULF TO THE TN/MID
MS RIVER VALLEY ALREADY WILL HAVE CREATED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH
PWATS CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY CENTER OVER THE PROGRESSION OF
A SHEARED TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE TN VALLEY
WHICH COULD SEND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD. THEN, AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY, YET
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE ACROSS AR/N MS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM N MS/W TN. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN PUSH
OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY EVENING. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
THAT THE TIMING OF THESE THUNDERSTORM "EPISODES" HAS BEEN CHANGING
(AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE AGAIN) FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT. SO,
THOSE ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS EACH DAY AS THIS SCENARIO PROGRESSES. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE. THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO A BREAK IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SO, DESPITE THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE
LOW 80S, THERE COULD BE HIGHER DAYTIME HIGHS IN BETWEEN ANY
BREAKS/QUICK CLEARINGS THAT OCCUR.

THEN, WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN, MONDAY MAY BE THE TRANSITION DAY WHERE POPS MAY NEED TO BE
TAILORED DOWNWARD. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT HIGH END POPS DUE TO THE
COMPLEX PATTERN TRANSITION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR OTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
EXITING TROUGH. SPEAKING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MAY YIELD MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DUE THE RIDGE THAT
HAD BEEN RELEGATED TO THE CARIBBEAN AND BERMUDA FINALLY BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN THE RETURN
OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES (IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S) AND LOWER POPS BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1244 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION COMBINING WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
TO BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE
CHALLENGES WITH TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
THROUGH A RATHER LARGE PORTION OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AFTN AT BOTH TAF SITES AND INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
ACCORDINGLY. PROBABILTIIES INCREASE AGAIN IN A WINDOW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED ANOTHER THREAT PERIOD THEN AS
WELL.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  85  69  82 /  80  60  50  60
SHOALS        70  84  70  82 /  70  60  50  60
VINEMONT      69  84  69  81 /  70  60  50  60
FAYETTEVILLE  69  83  68  81 /  80  60  50  60
ALBERTVILLE   69  82  69  82 /  80  60  50  60
FORT PAYNE    68  83  68  81 /  80  60  50  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  83  69 /  70  60  50  60  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  83  70 /  50  60  50  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  72  84  71 /  50  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  87  72 /  40  50  50  60  50
CALERA      73  87  71  85  71 /  40  50  40  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  86  72 /  30  30  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  89  73  88  72 /  20  30  30  40  40
TROY        72  90  72  89  72 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  83  69 /  70  60  50  60  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  83  70 /  50  60  50  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  72  84  71 /  50  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  87  72 /  40  50  50  60  50
CALERA      73  87  71  85  71 /  40  50  40  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  86  72 /  30  30  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  89  73  88  72 /  20  30  30  40  40
TROY        72  90  72  89  72 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  83  69 /  70  60  50  60  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  83  70 /  50  60  50  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  72  84  71 /  50  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  87  72 /  40  50  50  60  50
CALERA      73  87  71  85  71 /  40  50  40  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  86  72 /  30  30  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  89  73  88  72 /  20  30  30  40  40
TROY        72  90  72  89  72 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  83  69 /  70  60  50  60  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  83  70 /  50  60  50  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  72  84  71 /  50  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  87  72 /  40  50  50  60  50
CALERA      73  87  71  85  71 /  40  50  40  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  86  72 /  30  30  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  89  73  88  72 /  20  30  30  40  40
TROY        72  90  72  89  72 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  83  69 /  70  60  50  60  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  83  70 /  50  60  50  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  72  84  71 /  50  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  87  72 /  40  50  50  60  50
CALERA      73  87  71  85  71 /  40  50  40  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  86  72 /  30  30  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  89  73  88  72 /  20  30  30  40  40
TROY        72  90  72  89  72 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 021842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  83  69 /  70  60  50  60  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  83  70 /  50  60  50  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  72  84  71 /  50  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  87  72 /  40  50  50  60  50
CALERA      73  87  71  85  71 /  40  50  40  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  86  72 /  30  30  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  89  73  88  72 /  20  30  30  40  40
TROY        72  90  72  89  72 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021744 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1010 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN TN. THIS IS BEING CAUSED BY SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SW TN.

SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING SOME VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES...BUT LUCKILY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AT
AROUND 40 MPH. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS
LINCOLN...FRANKLIN...AND MOORE COUNTIES IN TN. IF THESE STORMS MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREA LONG ENOUGH...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

SOUTH OF THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY...A LARGE AREA OF PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IS STILL OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE MORNING. MODELS THIN CLOUD COVER
IN GENERAL IN NW ALABAMA THIS MORNING...BEFORE BRINGING IN MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN FROM
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BELIEVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN ALABAMA THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM MS.

EXPECT COVERAGE TO REALLY INCREASE (TO 60 TO 80 PERCENT) ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. BASED ON 30 TO 40 KTS OF WIND ENERGY AND MODEL CAPE
FORECASTS...DO BELIEVE THAT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THOUGH TRAINING AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A BETTER THREAT.

OVERALL RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NW ALABAMA...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK
OF CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE TODAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION COMBINING WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
TO BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE
CHALLENGES WITH TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
THROUGH A RATHER LARGE PORTION OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AFTN AT BOTH TAF SITES AND INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
ACCORDINGLY. PROBABILTIIES INCREASE AGAIN IN A WINDOW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED ANOTHER THREAT PERIOD THEN AS
WELL.

15

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021744 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1010 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN TN. THIS IS BEING CAUSED BY SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SW TN.

SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING SOME VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES...BUT LUCKILY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AT
AROUND 40 MPH. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS
LINCOLN...FRANKLIN...AND MOORE COUNTIES IN TN. IF THESE STORMS MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREA LONG ENOUGH...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

SOUTH OF THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY...A LARGE AREA OF PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IS STILL OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE MORNING. MODELS THIN CLOUD COVER
IN GENERAL IN NW ALABAMA THIS MORNING...BEFORE BRINGING IN MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN FROM
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BELIEVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN ALABAMA THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM MS.

EXPECT COVERAGE TO REALLY INCREASE (TO 60 TO 80 PERCENT) ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. BASED ON 30 TO 40 KTS OF WIND ENERGY AND MODEL CAPE
FORECASTS...DO BELIEVE THAT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THOUGH TRAINING AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A BETTER THREAT.

OVERALL RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NW ALABAMA...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK
OF CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE TODAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION COMBINING WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
TO BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE
CHALLENGES WITH TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
THROUGH A RATHER LARGE PORTION OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AFTN AT BOTH TAF SITES AND INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
ACCORDINGLY. PROBABILTIIES INCREASE AGAIN IN A WINDOW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED ANOTHER THREAT PERIOD THEN AS
WELL.

15

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021625
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER
REGION (BLOWOFF FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO OUR NORTH)...IS KEEPING TEMPS
DOWN SOMEWHAT. AS A RESULT...TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN 3-5 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...LESS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL FEWER STORMS. EXCEPTION
BEING INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA (EAST OF I-65) AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BETTER LOLVL MOISTURE POOL IN THAT AREA
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT AREA. STORMS ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING STRONG AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THESE STORMS. A BRIEF SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS RATHER LOW. REMAINDER OF THE FCST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12/DS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   86  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      86  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   87  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  88  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      88  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   87  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 021625
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER
REGION (BLOWOFF FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO OUR NORTH)...IS KEEPING TEMPS
DOWN SOMEWHAT. AS A RESULT...TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN 3-5 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...LESS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL FEWER STORMS. EXCEPTION
BEING INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA (EAST OF I-65) AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BETTER LOLVL MOISTURE POOL IN THAT AREA
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT AREA. STORMS ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING STRONG AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THESE STORMS. A BRIEF SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS RATHER LOW. REMAINDER OF THE FCST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12/DS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   86  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      86  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   87  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  88  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      88  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   87  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021625
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER
REGION (BLOWOFF FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO OUR NORTH)...IS KEEPING TEMPS
DOWN SOMEWHAT. AS A RESULT...TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN 3-5 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...LESS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL FEWER STORMS. EXCEPTION
BEING INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA (EAST OF I-65) AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BETTER LOLVL MOISTURE POOL IN THAT AREA
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT AREA. STORMS ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING STRONG AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THESE STORMS. A BRIEF SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS RATHER LOW. REMAINDER OF THE FCST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12/DS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   86  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      86  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   87  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  88  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      88  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   87  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021625
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER
REGION (BLOWOFF FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO OUR NORTH)...IS KEEPING TEMPS
DOWN SOMEWHAT. AS A RESULT...TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN 3-5 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...LESS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL FEWER STORMS. EXCEPTION
BEING INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA (EAST OF I-65) AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BETTER LOLVL MOISTURE POOL IN THAT AREA
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT AREA. STORMS ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING STRONG AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THESE STORMS. A BRIEF SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS RATHER LOW. REMAINDER OF THE FCST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12/DS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   86  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      86  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   87  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  88  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      88  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   87  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021625
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER
REGION (BLOWOFF FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO OUR NORTH)...IS KEEPING TEMPS
DOWN SOMEWHAT. AS A RESULT...TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN 3-5 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...LESS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL FEWER STORMS. EXCEPTION
BEING INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA (EAST OF I-65) AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BETTER LOLVL MOISTURE POOL IN THAT AREA
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT AREA. STORMS ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING STRONG AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THESE STORMS. A BRIEF SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS RATHER LOW. REMAINDER OF THE FCST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12/DS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   86  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      86  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   87  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  88  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      88  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   87  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021625
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER
REGION (BLOWOFF FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO OUR NORTH)...IS KEEPING TEMPS
DOWN SOMEWHAT. AS A RESULT...TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN 3-5 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...LESS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL FEWER STORMS. EXCEPTION
BEING INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA (EAST OF I-65) AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BETTER LOLVL MOISTURE POOL IN THAT AREA
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT AREA. STORMS ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING STRONG AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THESE STORMS. A BRIEF SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS RATHER LOW. REMAINDER OF THE FCST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12/DS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   86  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      86  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   87  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  88  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      88  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   87  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021510 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1010 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO LOWER POP THIS MORNING AND RAISE TEMPERATURES IN NW AL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN TN. THIS IS BEING CAUSED BY SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SW TN.

SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING SOME VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES...BUT LUCKILY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AT
AROUND 40 MPH. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS
LINCOLN...FRANKLIN...AND MOORE COUNTIES IN TN. IF THESE STORMS MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREA LONG ENOUGH...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

SOUTH OF THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY...A LARGE AREA OF PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IS STILL OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE MORNING. MODELS THIN CLOUD COVER
IN GENERAL IN NW ALABAMA THIS MORNING...BEFORE BRINGING IN MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN FROM
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BELIEVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN ALABAMA THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM MS.

EXPECT COVERAGE TO REALLY INCREASE (TO 60 TO 80 PERCENT) ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. BASED ON 30 TO 40 KTS OF WIND ENERGY AND MODEL CAPE
FORECASTS...DO BELIEVE THAT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THOUGH TRAINING AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A BETTER THREAT.

OVERALL RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NW ALABAMA...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK
OF CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE TODAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...RESTRICTED FLYING CONDS ARE XPCTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY...AS MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE AREA. REDUCED CIGS/VIS...OR TEMPO MVFR CONDS...IN SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SHRA OR
TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HRS...ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT/TIMING
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021510 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1010 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO LOWER POP THIS MORNING AND RAISE TEMPERATURES IN NW AL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN TN. THIS IS BEING CAUSED BY SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SW TN.

SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING SOME VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES...BUT LUCKILY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AT
AROUND 40 MPH. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS
LINCOLN...FRANKLIN...AND MOORE COUNTIES IN TN. IF THESE STORMS MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREA LONG ENOUGH...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

SOUTH OF THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY...A LARGE AREA OF PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IS STILL OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE MORNING. MODELS THIN CLOUD COVER
IN GENERAL IN NW ALABAMA THIS MORNING...BEFORE BRINGING IN MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN FROM
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BELIEVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN ALABAMA THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM MS.

EXPECT COVERAGE TO REALLY INCREASE (TO 60 TO 80 PERCENT) ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. BASED ON 30 TO 40 KTS OF WIND ENERGY AND MODEL CAPE
FORECASTS...DO BELIEVE THAT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THOUGH TRAINING AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A BETTER THREAT.

OVERALL RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NW ALABAMA...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK
OF CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE TODAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...RESTRICTED FLYING CONDS ARE XPCTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY...AS MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE AREA. REDUCED CIGS/VIS...OR TEMPO MVFR CONDS...IN SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SHRA OR
TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HRS...ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT/TIMING
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE A BIT MESSY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR/VFR AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR RANGE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE
EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND THIS
TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  70  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    86  71  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  88  73  87  72  84 /  40  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  90  72  88  72  87 /  40  40  50  50  60
CALERA      89  73  87  71  85 /  40  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      87  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  89  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        88  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 021455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE A BIT MESSY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR/VFR AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR RANGE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE
EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND THIS
TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  70  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    86  71  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  88  73  87  72  84 /  40  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  90  72  88  72  87 /  40  40  50  50  60
CALERA      89  73  87  71  85 /  40  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      87  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  89  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        88  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 021455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE A BIT MESSY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR/VFR AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR RANGE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE
EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND THIS
TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  70  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    86  71  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  88  73  87  72  84 /  40  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  90  72  88  72  87 /  40  40  50  50  60
CALERA      89  73  87  71  85 /  40  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      87  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  89  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        88  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE A BIT MESSY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR/VFR AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR RANGE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE
EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND THIS
TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  70  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    86  71  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  88  73  87  72  84 /  40  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  90  72  88  72  87 /  40  40  50  50  60
CALERA      89  73  87  71  85 /  40  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      87  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  89  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        88  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE
EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND THIS
TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE A BIT MESSY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR/VFR AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR RANGE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE
EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND THIS
TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE A BIT MESSY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR/VFR AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR RANGE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021135 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 404 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...A CONFIGURATION OF STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW AND TROUGHING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
HAS PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A POTENTIALLY STORMY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS SETUP WAS SENDING WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. THOSE DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WERE CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TYPE COMPLEX
THAT BROUGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON WED HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS REMNANTS OF IT MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE SE
COAST. ANOTHER COMPLEX NOW AFFECTING AREAS FROM SW MISSOURI TO THE
TN/OH/MS RIVER JUNCTURE WAS HEADED SE IN THE PREVAILING FLOW. THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT HINGES ON HOW MUCH OF IT REMAINS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS COULD
BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON FRI/SAT.

AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POSITIONED WEST TO EAST FROM
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK LOW MOVING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT...
A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00/06Z NAM WERE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT TOWARD THIS AREA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
KEPT IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN EITHER CASE...THE BETTER PROGGED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS NEARING FROM THE NW WILL KEEP VERY GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN
AND NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP HIGH PRECIP CHANCES GOING. INCREASED
THIS MORNING`S RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY...THEN CATEGORICAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE CONVECTION OVER
SW MISSOURI NEARING THE AREA LATER TODAY. AS WAS THE CASE ON WED...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF MORE
DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCED INSTABILITY OCCURS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING MORE
SHEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSED...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF INCREASED HELICITY
FROM THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES INTO SATURDAY...
WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A FLOODING RISK
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY IF CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MODEL RUN
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT INDICATE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA...
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS THIS GO AROUND WAS THE
DRIER RUN...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE WETTER (AGAIN MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER). GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED
ON THE DRY SIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO...AND THE HEAVIEST RAINS
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AM.

THE TROUGHING PATTERN SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING THE COURSE OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW IMPACTING THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTH/
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...RESULTING IN THE EAST COAST TROUGHING
RELAXING SOMEWHAT. AN UPPER LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE
BAJA AND CALIFORNIA COAST...WEAKENING THE DESERT SW UPPER RIDGE. THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GULF REGION. THE OUTPUT THIS FAR OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A
DRIER TREND COULD BE IN THE OFFING AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...RESTRICTED FLYING CONDS ARE XPCTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY...AS MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE AREA. REDUCED CIGS/VIS...OR TEMPO MVFR CONDS...IN SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SHRA OR
TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HRS...ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT/TIMING
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 021107 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELITTE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

.MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   89  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      89  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  91  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      91  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   90  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 021107 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELITTE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

.MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   89  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      89  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  91  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      91  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   90  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021002
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  92  74  90 /  40  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   89  75  92  77  90 /  40  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      89  79  90  79  90 /  40  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  72  92 /  50  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  91  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      91  72  92  72  91 /  50  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   90  73  94  71  93 /  40  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021002
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  92  74  90 /  40  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   89  75  92  77  90 /  40  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      89  79  90  79  90 /  40  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  72  92 /  50  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  91  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      91  72  92  72  91 /  50  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   90  73  94  71  93 /  40  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020904
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
404 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...A CONFIGURATION OF STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW AND TROUGHING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
HAS PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A POTENTIALLY STORMY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS SETUP WAS SENDING WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. THOSE DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WERE CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TYPE COMPLEX
THAT BROUGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON WED HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS REMNANTS OF IT MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE SE
COAST. ANOTHER COMPLEX NOW AFFECTING AREAS FROM SW MISSOURI TO THE
TN/OH/MS RIVER JUNCTURE WAS HEADED SE IN THE PREVAILING FLOW. THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT HINGES ON HOW MUCH OF IT REMAINS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS COULD
BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON FRI/SAT.

AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POSITIONED WEST TO EAST FROM
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK LOW MOVING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT...
A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00/06Z NAM WERE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT TOWARD THIS AREA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
KEPT IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN EITHER CASE...THE BETTER PROGGED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS NEARING FROM THE NW WILL KEEP VERY GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN
AND NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP HIGH PRECIP CHANCES GOING. INCREASED
THIS MORNING`S RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY...THEN CATEGORICAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE CONVECTION OVER
SW MISSOURI NEARING THE AREA LATER TODAY. AS WAS THE CASE ON WED...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF MORE
DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCED INSTABILITY OCCURS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING MORE
SHEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSED...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF INCREASED HELICITY
FROM THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES INTO SATURDAY...
WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A FLOODING RISK
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY IF CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MODEL RUN
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT INDICATE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA...
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS THIS GO AROUND WAS THE
DRIER RUN...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE WETTER (AGAIN MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER). GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED
ON THE DRY SIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO...AND THE HEAVIEST RAINS
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AM.

THE TROUGHING PATTERN SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING THE COURSE OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW IMPACTING THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTH/
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...RESULTING IN THE EAST COAST TROUGHING
RELAXING SOMEWHAT. AN UPPER LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE
BAJA AND CALIFORNIA COAST...WEAKENING THE DESERT SW UPPER RIDGE. THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GULF REGION. THE OUTPUT THIS FAR OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A
DRIER TREND COULD BE IN THE OFFING AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT HSV DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO FOG...WHILE MSL SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. BY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
AROUND 16Z. EXPECT BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH HSV AND
MSL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AT LEAST VCTS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  70  85  69 /  80  80  60  50
SHOALS        85  70  84  70 /  80  80  60  50
VINEMONT      84  69  84  69 /  80  80  60  50
FAYETTEVILLE  83  69  83  68 /  80  80  60  50
ALBERTVILLE   83  69  82  69 /  80  80  60  50
FORT PAYNE    83  68  83  68 /  80  80  60  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020904
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
404 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...A CONFIGURATION OF STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW AND TROUGHING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
HAS PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A POTENTIALLY STORMY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS SETUP WAS SENDING WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. THOSE DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WERE CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TYPE COMPLEX
THAT BROUGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON WED HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS REMNANTS OF IT MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE SE
COAST. ANOTHER COMPLEX NOW AFFECTING AREAS FROM SW MISSOURI TO THE
TN/OH/MS RIVER JUNCTURE WAS HEADED SE IN THE PREVAILING FLOW. THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT HINGES ON HOW MUCH OF IT REMAINS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS COULD
BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON FRI/SAT.

AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POSITIONED WEST TO EAST FROM
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK LOW MOVING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT...
A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00/06Z NAM WERE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT TOWARD THIS AREA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
KEPT IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN EITHER CASE...THE BETTER PROGGED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS NEARING FROM THE NW WILL KEEP VERY GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN
AND NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP HIGH PRECIP CHANCES GOING. INCREASED
THIS MORNING`S RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY...THEN CATEGORICAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE CONVECTION OVER
SW MISSOURI NEARING THE AREA LATER TODAY. AS WAS THE CASE ON WED...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF MORE
DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCED INSTABILITY OCCURS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING MORE
SHEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSED...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF INCREASED HELICITY
FROM THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES INTO SATURDAY...
WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A FLOODING RISK
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY IF CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MODEL RUN
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT INDICATE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA...
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS THIS GO AROUND WAS THE
DRIER RUN...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE WETTER (AGAIN MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER). GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED
ON THE DRY SIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO...AND THE HEAVIEST RAINS
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AM.

THE TROUGHING PATTERN SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING THE COURSE OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW IMPACTING THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTH/
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...RESULTING IN THE EAST COAST TROUGHING
RELAXING SOMEWHAT. AN UPPER LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE
BAJA AND CALIFORNIA COAST...WEAKENING THE DESERT SW UPPER RIDGE. THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GULF REGION. THE OUTPUT THIS FAR OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A
DRIER TREND COULD BE IN THE OFFING AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT HSV DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO FOG...WHILE MSL SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. BY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
AROUND 16Z. EXPECT BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH HSV AND
MSL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AT LEAST VCTS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  70  85  69 /  80  80  60  50
SHOALS        85  70  84  70 /  80  80  60  50
VINEMONT      84  69  84  69 /  80  80  60  50
FAYETTEVILLE  83  69  83  68 /  80  80  60  50
ALBERTVILLE   83  69  82  69 /  80  80  60  50
FORT PAYNE    83  68  83  68 /  80  80  60  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020904
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
404 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...A CONFIGURATION OF STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW AND TROUGHING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
HAS PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A POTENTIALLY STORMY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS SETUP WAS SENDING WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. THOSE DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WERE CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TYPE COMPLEX
THAT BROUGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON WED HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS REMNANTS OF IT MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE SE
COAST. ANOTHER COMPLEX NOW AFFECTING AREAS FROM SW MISSOURI TO THE
TN/OH/MS RIVER JUNCTURE WAS HEADED SE IN THE PREVAILING FLOW. THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT HINGES ON HOW MUCH OF IT REMAINS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS COULD
BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON FRI/SAT.

AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POSITIONED WEST TO EAST FROM
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK LOW MOVING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT...
A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00/06Z NAM WERE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT TOWARD THIS AREA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
KEPT IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN EITHER CASE...THE BETTER PROGGED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS NEARING FROM THE NW WILL KEEP VERY GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN
AND NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP HIGH PRECIP CHANCES GOING. INCREASED
THIS MORNING`S RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY...THEN CATEGORICAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE CONVECTION OVER
SW MISSOURI NEARING THE AREA LATER TODAY. AS WAS THE CASE ON WED...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF MORE
DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCED INSTABILITY OCCURS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING MORE
SHEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSED...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF INCREASED HELICITY
FROM THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES INTO SATURDAY...
WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A FLOODING RISK
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY IF CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MODEL RUN
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT INDICATE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA...
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS THIS GO AROUND WAS THE
DRIER RUN...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE WETTER (AGAIN MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER). GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED
ON THE DRY SIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO...AND THE HEAVIEST RAINS
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AM.

THE TROUGHING PATTERN SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING THE COURSE OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW IMPACTING THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTH/
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...RESULTING IN THE EAST COAST TROUGHING
RELAXING SOMEWHAT. AN UPPER LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE
BAJA AND CALIFORNIA COAST...WEAKENING THE DESERT SW UPPER RIDGE. THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GULF REGION. THE OUTPUT THIS FAR OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A
DRIER TREND COULD BE IN THE OFFING AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT HSV DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO FOG...WHILE MSL SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. BY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
AROUND 16Z. EXPECT BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH HSV AND
MSL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AT LEAST VCTS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  70  85  69 /  80  80  60  50
SHOALS        85  70  84  70 /  80  80  60  50
VINEMONT      84  69  84  69 /  80  80  60  50
FAYETTEVILLE  83  69  83  68 /  80  80  60  50
ALBERTVILLE   83  69  82  69 /  80  80  60  50
FORT PAYNE    83  68  83  68 /  80  80  60  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020904
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
404 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...A CONFIGURATION OF STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW AND TROUGHING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
HAS PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A POTENTIALLY STORMY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS SETUP WAS SENDING WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. THOSE DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WERE CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TYPE COMPLEX
THAT BROUGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON WED HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS REMNANTS OF IT MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE SE
COAST. ANOTHER COMPLEX NOW AFFECTING AREAS FROM SW MISSOURI TO THE
TN/OH/MS RIVER JUNCTURE WAS HEADED SE IN THE PREVAILING FLOW. THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT HINGES ON HOW MUCH OF IT REMAINS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS COULD
BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON FRI/SAT.

AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POSITIONED WEST TO EAST FROM
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK LOW MOVING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT...
A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00/06Z NAM WERE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT TOWARD THIS AREA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
KEPT IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN EITHER CASE...THE BETTER PROGGED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS NEARING FROM THE NW WILL KEEP VERY GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN
AND NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP HIGH PRECIP CHANCES GOING. INCREASED
THIS MORNING`S RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY...THEN CATEGORICAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE CONVECTION OVER
SW MISSOURI NEARING THE AREA LATER TODAY. AS WAS THE CASE ON WED...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF MORE
DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCED INSTABILITY OCCURS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING MORE
SHEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSED...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF INCREASED HELICITY
FROM THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES INTO SATURDAY...
WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A FLOODING RISK
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY IF CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MODEL RUN
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT INDICATE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA...
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS THIS GO AROUND WAS THE
DRIER RUN...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE WETTER (AGAIN MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER). GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED
ON THE DRY SIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO...AND THE HEAVIEST RAINS
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AM.

THE TROUGHING PATTERN SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING THE COURSE OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW IMPACTING THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTH/
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...RESULTING IN THE EAST COAST TROUGHING
RELAXING SOMEWHAT. AN UPPER LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE
BAJA AND CALIFORNIA COAST...WEAKENING THE DESERT SW UPPER RIDGE. THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GULF REGION. THE OUTPUT THIS FAR OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A
DRIER TREND COULD BE IN THE OFFING AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT HSV DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO FOG...WHILE MSL SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. BY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
AROUND 16Z. EXPECT BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH HSV AND
MSL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AT LEAST VCTS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  70  85  69 /  80  80  60  50
SHOALS        85  70  84  70 /  80  80  60  50
VINEMONT      84  69  84  69 /  80  80  60  50
FAYETTEVILLE  83  69  83  68 /  80  80  60  50
ALBERTVILLE   83  69  82  69 /  80  80  60  50
FORT PAYNE    83  68  83  68 /  80  80  60  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020904
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
404 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...A CONFIGURATION OF STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW AND TROUGHING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
HAS PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A POTENTIALLY STORMY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS SETUP WAS SENDING WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. THOSE DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WERE CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TYPE COMPLEX
THAT BROUGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON WED HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS REMNANTS OF IT MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE SE
COAST. ANOTHER COMPLEX NOW AFFECTING AREAS FROM SW MISSOURI TO THE
TN/OH/MS RIVER JUNCTURE WAS HEADED SE IN THE PREVAILING FLOW. THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT HINGES ON HOW MUCH OF IT REMAINS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS COULD
BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON FRI/SAT.

AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POSITIONED WEST TO EAST FROM
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK LOW MOVING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT...
A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00/06Z NAM WERE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT TOWARD THIS AREA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
KEPT IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN EITHER CASE...THE BETTER PROGGED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS NEARING FROM THE NW WILL KEEP VERY GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN
AND NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP HIGH PRECIP CHANCES GOING. INCREASED
THIS MORNING`S RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY...THEN CATEGORICAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE CONVECTION OVER
SW MISSOURI NEARING THE AREA LATER TODAY. AS WAS THE CASE ON WED...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF MORE
DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCED INSTABILITY OCCURS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING MORE
SHEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSED...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF INCREASED HELICITY
FROM THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES INTO SATURDAY...
WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A FLOODING RISK
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY IF CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MODEL RUN
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT INDICATE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA...
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS THIS GO AROUND WAS THE
DRIER RUN...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE WETTER (AGAIN MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER). GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED
ON THE DRY SIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO...AND THE HEAVIEST RAINS
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AM.

THE TROUGHING PATTERN SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING THE COURSE OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW IMPACTING THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTH/
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...RESULTING IN THE EAST COAST TROUGHING
RELAXING SOMEWHAT. AN UPPER LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE
BAJA AND CALIFORNIA COAST...WEAKENING THE DESERT SW UPPER RIDGE. THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GULF REGION. THE OUTPUT THIS FAR OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A
DRIER TREND COULD BE IN THE OFFING AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT HSV DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO FOG...WHILE MSL SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. BY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
AROUND 16Z. EXPECT BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH HSV AND
MSL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AT LEAST VCTS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  70  85  69 /  80  80  60  50
SHOALS        85  70  84  70 /  80  80  60  50
VINEMONT      84  69  84  69 /  80  80  60  50
FAYETTEVILLE  83  69  83  68 /  80  80  60  50
ALBERTVILLE   83  69  82  69 /  80  80  60  50
FORT PAYNE    83  68  83  68 /  80  80  60  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020904
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
404 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...A CONFIGURATION OF STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW AND TROUGHING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
HAS PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A POTENTIALLY STORMY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS SETUP WAS SENDING WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. THOSE DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WERE CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TYPE COMPLEX
THAT BROUGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON WED HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS REMNANTS OF IT MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE SE
COAST. ANOTHER COMPLEX NOW AFFECTING AREAS FROM SW MISSOURI TO THE
TN/OH/MS RIVER JUNCTURE WAS HEADED SE IN THE PREVAILING FLOW. THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT HINGES ON HOW MUCH OF IT REMAINS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS COULD
BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON FRI/SAT.

AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POSITIONED WEST TO EAST FROM
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK LOW MOVING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT...
A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00/06Z NAM WERE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT TOWARD THIS AREA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
KEPT IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN EITHER CASE...THE BETTER PROGGED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS NEARING FROM THE NW WILL KEEP VERY GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN
AND NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP HIGH PRECIP CHANCES GOING. INCREASED
THIS MORNING`S RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY...THEN CATEGORICAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE CONVECTION OVER
SW MISSOURI NEARING THE AREA LATER TODAY. AS WAS THE CASE ON WED...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF MORE
DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCED INSTABILITY OCCURS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING MORE
SHEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSED...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF INCREASED HELICITY
FROM THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES INTO SATURDAY...
WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A FLOODING RISK
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY IF CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MODEL RUN
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT INDICATE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA...
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS THIS GO AROUND WAS THE
DRIER RUN...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE WETTER (AGAIN MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER). GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED
ON THE DRY SIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO...AND THE HEAVIEST RAINS
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AM.

THE TROUGHING PATTERN SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING THE COURSE OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW IMPACTING THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTH/
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...RESULTING IN THE EAST COAST TROUGHING
RELAXING SOMEWHAT. AN UPPER LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE
BAJA AND CALIFORNIA COAST...WEAKENING THE DESERT SW UPPER RIDGE. THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GULF REGION. THE OUTPUT THIS FAR OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A
DRIER TREND COULD BE IN THE OFFING AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT HSV DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO FOG...WHILE MSL SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. BY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
AROUND 16Z. EXPECT BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH HSV AND
MSL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AT LEAST VCTS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  70  85  69 /  80  80  60  50
SHOALS        85  70  84  70 /  80  80  60  50
VINEMONT      84  69  84  69 /  80  80  60  50
FAYETTEVILLE  83  69  83  68 /  80  80  60  50
ALBERTVILLE   83  69  82  69 /  80  80  60  50
FORT PAYNE    83  68  83  68 /  80  80  60  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020858
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO
DECIDE EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY
THE ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF
STORMS OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER EET HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARDS AUO THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW HAS DRIFTED THROUGH MGM AND IS APPROACHING TOI
BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. WINDS GENERALLY A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT OF
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  85  70  83 /  70  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    85  71  85  70  83 /  70  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  87  73  87  72  84 /  60  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  50  60
CALERA      88  73  87  71  85 /  60  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      85  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  90  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        90  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020858
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO
DECIDE EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY
THE ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF
STORMS OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER EET HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARDS AUO THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW HAS DRIFTED THROUGH MGM AND IS APPROACHING TOI
BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. WINDS GENERALLY A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT OF
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  85  70  83 /  70  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    85  71  85  70  83 /  70  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  87  73  87  72  84 /  60  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  50  60
CALERA      88  73  87  71  85 /  60  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      85  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  90  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        90  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020858
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO
DECIDE EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY
THE ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF
STORMS OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER EET HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARDS AUO THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW HAS DRIFTED THROUGH MGM AND IS APPROACHING TOI
BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. WINDS GENERALLY A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT OF
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  85  70  83 /  70  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    85  71  85  70  83 /  70  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  87  73  87  72  84 /  60  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  50  60
CALERA      88  73  87  71  85 /  60  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      85  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  90  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        90  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020858
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO
DECIDE EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY
THE ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF
STORMS OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER EET HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARDS AUO THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW HAS DRIFTED THROUGH MGM AND IS APPROACHING TOI
BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. WINDS GENERALLY A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT OF
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  85  70  83 /  70  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    85  71  85  70  83 /  70  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  87  73  87  72  84 /  60  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  50  60
CALERA      88  73  87  71  85 /  60  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      85  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  90  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        90  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 020504 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...DIFFICULT CALL ON WHEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD WHICH DEPENDS ON POORLY HANDLED INTERACTION
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
REGION. FOR THIS ISSUANCE HAVE STRUCK A BALANCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND VCSH DEVELOPING BY 10Z FOLLOWED BY VCTS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  92  74  89  75 /  05  10  10  40  20
PENSACOLA   77  93  76  88  77 /  05  10  10  30  20
DESTIN      79  91  79  86  79 /  10  10  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  71  92  70  89  72 /  10  20  30  40  30
CAMDEN      71  92  71  88  71 /  20  20  30  40  30
CRESTVIEW   72  94  71  90  72 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 020504 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...DIFFICULT CALL ON WHEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD WHICH DEPENDS ON POORLY HANDLED INTERACTION
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
REGION. FOR THIS ISSUANCE HAVE STRUCK A BALANCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND VCSH DEVELOPING BY 10Z FOLLOWED BY VCTS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  92  74  89  75 /  05  10  10  40  20
PENSACOLA   77  93  76  88  77 /  05  10  10  30  20
DESTIN      79  91  79  86  79 /  10  10  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  71  92  70  89  72 /  10  20  30  40  30
CAMDEN      71  92  71  88  71 /  20  20  30  40  30
CRESTVIEW   72  94  71  90  72 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020504 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...DIFFICULT CALL ON WHEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD WHICH DEPENDS ON POORLY HANDLED INTERACTION
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
REGION. FOR THIS ISSUANCE HAVE STRUCK A BALANCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND VCSH DEVELOPING BY 10Z FOLLOWED BY VCTS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  92  74  89  75 /  05  10  10  40  20
PENSACOLA   77  93  76  88  77 /  05  10  10  30  20
DESTIN      79  91  79  86  79 /  10  10  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  71  92  70  89  72 /  10  20  30  40  30
CAMDEN      71  92  71  88  71 /  20  20  30  40  30
CRESTVIEW   72  94  71  90  72 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 020504 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...DIFFICULT CALL ON WHEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD WHICH DEPENDS ON POORLY HANDLED INTERACTION
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
REGION. FOR THIS ISSUANCE HAVE STRUCK A BALANCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND VCSH DEVELOPING BY 10Z FOLLOWED BY VCTS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  92  74  89  75 /  05  10  10  40  20
PENSACOLA   77  93  76  88  77 /  05  10  10  30  20
DESTIN      79  91  79  86  79 /  10  10  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  71  92  70  89  72 /  10  20  30  40  30
CAMDEN      71  92  71  88  71 /  20  20  30  40  30
CRESTVIEW   72  94  71  90  72 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 020504 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...DIFFICULT CALL ON WHEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD WHICH DEPENDS ON POORLY HANDLED INTERACTION
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
REGION. FOR THIS ISSUANCE HAVE STRUCK A BALANCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND VCSH DEVELOPING BY 10Z FOLLOWED BY VCTS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  92  74  89  75 /  05  10  10  40  20
PENSACOLA   77  93  76  88  77 /  05  10  10  30  20
DESTIN      79  91  79  86  79 /  10  10  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  71  92  70  89  72 /  10  20  30  40  30
CAMDEN      71  92  71  88  71 /  20  20  30  40  30
CRESTVIEW   72  94  71  90  72 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 020504 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...DIFFICULT CALL ON WHEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD WHICH DEPENDS ON POORLY HANDLED INTERACTION
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
REGION. FOR THIS ISSUANCE HAVE STRUCK A BALANCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND VCSH DEVELOPING BY 10Z FOLLOWED BY VCTS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  92  74  89  75 /  05  10  10  40  20
PENSACOLA   77  93  76  88  77 /  05  10  10  30  20
DESTIN      79  91  79  86  79 /  10  10  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  71  92  70  89  72 /  10  20  30  40  30
CAMDEN      71  92  71  88  71 /  20  20  30  40  30
CRESTVIEW   72  94  71  90  72 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020459 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1159 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 721 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
THE 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...AREA 88-D IMAGES AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALL INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA HAD MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS BASED UPON
TRENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD AND WILL NOT BE
MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT HSV DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO FOG...WHILE MSL SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. BY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
AROUND 16Z. EXPECT BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH HSV AND
MSL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AT LEAST VCTS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020459 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1159 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 721 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
THE 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...AREA 88-D IMAGES AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALL INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA HAD MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS BASED UPON
TRENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD AND WILL NOT BE
MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT HSV DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO FOG...WHILE MSL SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. BY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
AROUND 16Z. EXPECT BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH HSV AND
MSL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AT LEAST VCTS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020459 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1159 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 721 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
THE 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...AREA 88-D IMAGES AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALL INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA HAD MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS BASED UPON
TRENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD AND WILL NOT BE
MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT HSV DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO FOG...WHILE MSL SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. BY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
AROUND 16Z. EXPECT BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH HSV AND
MSL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AT LEAST VCTS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020459 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1159 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 721 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
THE 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...AREA 88-D IMAGES AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALL INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA HAD MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS BASED UPON
TRENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD AND WILL NOT BE
MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT HSV DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO FOG...WHILE MSL SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. BY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
AROUND 16Z. EXPECT BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH HSV AND
MSL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AT LEAST VCTS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER EET HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARDS AUO THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW HAS DRIFTED THROUGH MGM AND IS APPROACHING TOI
BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. WINDS GENERALLY A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT OF
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER EET HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARDS AUO THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW HAS DRIFTED THROUGH MGM AND IS APPROACHING TOI
BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. WINDS GENERALLY A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT OF
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER EET HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARDS AUO THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW HAS DRIFTED THROUGH MGM AND IS APPROACHING TOI
BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. WINDS GENERALLY A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT OF
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020417 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1117 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THE
STORMS BUT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AT SUNSET.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  84  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
ANNISTON    68  85  71  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  69  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  72  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  50
CALERA      69  88  73  88  71 /  60  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      67  85  72  88  72 /  60  60  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  90  73 /  30  40  20  30  30
TROY        73  90  72  91  72 /  30  40  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/58



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020417 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1117 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THE
STORMS BUT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AT SUNSET.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  84  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
ANNISTON    68  85  71  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  69  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  72  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  50
CALERA      69  88  73  88  71 /  60  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      67  85  72  88  72 /  60  60  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  90  73 /  30  40  20  30  30
TROY        73  90  72  91  72 /  30  40  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/58



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020417 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1117 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THE
STORMS BUT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AT SUNSET.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  84  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
ANNISTON    68  85  71  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  69  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  72  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  50
CALERA      69  88  73  88  71 /  60  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      67  85  72  88  72 /  60  60  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  90  73 /  30  40  20  30  30
TROY        73  90  72  91  72 /  30  40  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/58



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020417 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1117 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THE
STORMS BUT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AT SUNSET.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  84  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
ANNISTON    68  85  71  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  69  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  72  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  50
CALERA      69  88  73  88  71 /  60  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      67  85  72  88  72 /  60  60  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  90  73 /  30  40  20  30  30
TROY        73  90  72  91  72 /  30  40  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/58



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020417 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1117 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THE
STORMS BUT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AT SUNSET.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  84  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
ANNISTON    68  85  71  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  69  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  72  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  50
CALERA      69  88  73  88  71 /  60  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      67  85  72  88  72 /  60  60  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  90  73 /  30  40  20  30  30
TROY        73  90  72  91  72 /  30  40  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/58



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020417 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1117 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THE
STORMS BUT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AT SUNSET.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  84  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
ANNISTON    68  85  71  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  69  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  72  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  50
CALERA      69  88  73  88  71 /  60  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      67  85  72  88  72 /  60  60  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  90  73 /  30  40  20  30  30
TROY        73  90  72  91  72 /  30  40  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/58




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020230 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  74  92  74 /  20  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   76  88  77  93  76 /  20  20  05  10  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  91  79 /  20  30  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  92  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  72  91  71  92  70 /  20  30  10  20  30
CAMDEN      72  90  71  92  71 /  20  30  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  94  71 /  20  30  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020230 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  74  92  74 /  20  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   76  88  77  93  76 /  20  20  05  10  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  91  79 /  20  30  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  92  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  72  91  71  92  70 /  20  30  10  20  30
CAMDEN      72  90  71  92  71 /  20  30  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  94  71 /  20  30  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020021 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
721 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...AREA 88-D IMAGES AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALL INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA HAD MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS BASED UPON
TRENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD AND WILL NOT BE
MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THIS TAF PERIOD IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
A VERY UNSTABLE PATTERN SETTING UP. WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING VCTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BEFORE
16/17Z SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020021 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
721 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...AREA 88-D IMAGES AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALL INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA HAD MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS BASED UPON
TRENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD AND WILL NOT BE
MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THIS TAF PERIOD IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
A VERY UNSTABLE PATTERN SETTING UP. WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING VCTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BEFORE
16/17Z SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020021 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
721 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...AREA 88-D IMAGES AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALL INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA HAD MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS BASED UPON
TRENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD AND WILL NOT BE
MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THIS TAF PERIOD IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
A VERY UNSTABLE PATTERN SETTING UP. WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING VCTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BEFORE
16/17Z SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020021 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
721 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...AREA 88-D IMAGES AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALL INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA HAD MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS BASED UPON
TRENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD AND WILL NOT BE
MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THIS TAF PERIOD IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
A VERY UNSTABLE PATTERN SETTING UP. WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING VCTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BEFORE
16/17Z SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 012342
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THE
STORMS BUT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AT SUNSET.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 012342
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THE
STORMS BUT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AT SUNSET.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012336
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
THE MCS THAT WAS OVER MO THIS MRNG IS NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE EXTENDING FROM OUR TN
ZONES THRU MADISON COUNTY AND INTO MORGAN COUNTY. AS A RESULT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR MOST OF THE TN
VALLEY...EXCEPT COLBERT/CULLMAN/FRANKLIN (AL) COUNTIES. BEHIND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE OF STORMS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX WILL
DIMINISH.

HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT
WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. SOME STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ATTM WILL GO WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS
FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE WX SCENARIO. MODELS DO SHOW
ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY MRNG THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARDS THE SERN
US. THE PROBLEM ATTM IS TRYING TO TIME THESE DISTURBANCES AND
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. ALSO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND WOULD BE THE
CHC OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USING A TOTAL QPF TOOL
FROM TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MRNG...THE TOTAL RAINFALL WAS ARND 2
INCHES. SO FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL NEED A FFA...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THIS TAF PERIOD IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
A VERY UNSTABLE PATTERN SETTING UP. WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING VCTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BEFORE
16/17Z SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012336
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
THE MCS THAT WAS OVER MO THIS MRNG IS NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE EXTENDING FROM OUR TN
ZONES THRU MADISON COUNTY AND INTO MORGAN COUNTY. AS A RESULT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR MOST OF THE TN
VALLEY...EXCEPT COLBERT/CULLMAN/FRANKLIN (AL) COUNTIES. BEHIND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE OF STORMS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX WILL
DIMINISH.

HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT
WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. SOME STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ATTM WILL GO WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS
FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE WX SCENARIO. MODELS DO SHOW
ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY MRNG THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARDS THE SERN
US. THE PROBLEM ATTM IS TRYING TO TIME THESE DISTURBANCES AND
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. ALSO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND WOULD BE THE
CHC OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USING A TOTAL QPF TOOL
FROM TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MRNG...THE TOTAL RAINFALL WAS ARND 2
INCHES. SO FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL NEED A FFA...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THIS TAF PERIOD IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
A VERY UNSTABLE PATTERN SETTING UP. WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING VCTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BEFORE
16/17Z SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 012336
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
THE MCS THAT WAS OVER MO THIS MRNG IS NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE EXTENDING FROM OUR TN
ZONES THRU MADISON COUNTY AND INTO MORGAN COUNTY. AS A RESULT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR MOST OF THE TN
VALLEY...EXCEPT COLBERT/CULLMAN/FRANKLIN (AL) COUNTIES. BEHIND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE OF STORMS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX WILL
DIMINISH.

HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT
WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. SOME STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ATTM WILL GO WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS
FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE WX SCENARIO. MODELS DO SHOW
ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY MRNG THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARDS THE SERN
US. THE PROBLEM ATTM IS TRYING TO TIME THESE DISTURBANCES AND
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. ALSO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND WOULD BE THE
CHC OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USING A TOTAL QPF TOOL
FROM TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MRNG...THE TOTAL RAINFALL WAS ARND 2
INCHES. SO FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL NEED A FFA...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THIS TAF PERIOD IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
A VERY UNSTABLE PATTERN SETTING UP. WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING VCTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BEFORE
16/17Z SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012336
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
THE MCS THAT WAS OVER MO THIS MRNG IS NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE EXTENDING FROM OUR TN
ZONES THRU MADISON COUNTY AND INTO MORGAN COUNTY. AS A RESULT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR MOST OF THE TN
VALLEY...EXCEPT COLBERT/CULLMAN/FRANKLIN (AL) COUNTIES. BEHIND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE OF STORMS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX WILL
DIMINISH.

HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT
WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. SOME STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ATTM WILL GO WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS
FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE WX SCENARIO. MODELS DO SHOW
ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY MRNG THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARDS THE SERN
US. THE PROBLEM ATTM IS TRYING TO TIME THESE DISTURBANCES AND
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. ALSO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND WOULD BE THE
CHC OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USING A TOTAL QPF TOOL
FROM TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MRNG...THE TOTAL RAINFALL WAS ARND 2
INCHES. SO FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL NEED A FFA...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THIS TAF PERIOD IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
A VERY UNSTABLE PATTERN SETTING UP. WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING VCTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BEFORE
16/17Z SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012336
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
THE MCS THAT WAS OVER MO THIS MRNG IS NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE EXTENDING FROM OUR TN
ZONES THRU MADISON COUNTY AND INTO MORGAN COUNTY. AS A RESULT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR MOST OF THE TN
VALLEY...EXCEPT COLBERT/CULLMAN/FRANKLIN (AL) COUNTIES. BEHIND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE OF STORMS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX WILL
DIMINISH.

HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT
WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. SOME STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ATTM WILL GO WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS
FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE WX SCENARIO. MODELS DO SHOW
ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY MRNG THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARDS THE SERN
US. THE PROBLEM ATTM IS TRYING TO TIME THESE DISTURBANCES AND
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. ALSO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND WOULD BE THE
CHC OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USING A TOTAL QPF TOOL
FROM TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MRNG...THE TOTAL RAINFALL WAS ARND 2
INCHES. SO FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL NEED A FFA...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THIS TAF PERIOD IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
A VERY UNSTABLE PATTERN SETTING UP. WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING VCTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BEFORE
16/17Z SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012336
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
THE MCS THAT WAS OVER MO THIS MRNG IS NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE EXTENDING FROM OUR TN
ZONES THRU MADISON COUNTY AND INTO MORGAN COUNTY. AS A RESULT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR MOST OF THE TN
VALLEY...EXCEPT COLBERT/CULLMAN/FRANKLIN (AL) COUNTIES. BEHIND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE OF STORMS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX WILL
DIMINISH.

HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT
WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. SOME STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ATTM WILL GO WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS
FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE WX SCENARIO. MODELS DO SHOW
ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY MRNG THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARDS THE SERN
US. THE PROBLEM ATTM IS TRYING TO TIME THESE DISTURBANCES AND
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. ALSO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND WOULD BE THE
CHC OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USING A TOTAL QPF TOOL
FROM TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MRNG...THE TOTAL RAINFALL WAS ARND 2
INCHES. SO FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL NEED A FFA...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THIS TAF PERIOD IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
A VERY UNSTABLE PATTERN SETTING UP. WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING VCTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BEFORE
16/17Z SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 012056
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  74  92  74 /  20  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   76  88  77  93  76 /  20  20  05  10  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  91  79 /  20  30  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  92  71 /  30  30  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  72  91  71  92  70 /  30  30  10  20  30
CAMDEN      72  90  71  92  71 /  40  30  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  94  71 /  20  30  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 012056
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  74  92  74 /  20  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   76  88  77  93  76 /  20  20  05  10  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  91  79 /  20  30  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  92  71 /  30  30  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  72  91  71  92  70 /  30  30  10  20  30
CAMDEN      72  90  71  92  71 /  40  30  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  94  71 /  20  30  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 012021
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
321 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. VCTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
AT KMGM AND KTOI. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z TO 12Z ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE RE-
INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF STORM FORMATION. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PRIMARILY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  84  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
ANNISTON    70  85  71  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  73  88  72 /  50  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  72  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  50
CALERA      72  88  73  88  71 /  40  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      71  85  72  88  72 /  30  60  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  90  73 /  20  40  20  30  30
TROY        73  90  72  91  72 /  20  40  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 012021
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
321 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. VCTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
AT KMGM AND KTOI. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z TO 12Z ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE RE-
INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF STORM FORMATION. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PRIMARILY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  84  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
ANNISTON    70  85  71  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  73  88  72 /  50  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  72  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  50
CALERA      72  88  73  88  71 /  40  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      71  85  72  88  72 /  30  60  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  90  73 /  20  40  20  30  30
TROY        73  90  72  91  72 /  20  40  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011952
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE MCS THAT WAS OVER MO THIS MRNG IS NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE EXTENDING FROM OUR TN
ZONES THRU MADISON COUNTY AND INTO MORGAN COUNTY. AS A RESULT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR MOST OF THE TN
VALLEY...EXCEPT COLBERT/CULLMAN/FRANKLIN (AL) COUNTIES. BEHIND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE OF STORMS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX WILL
DIMINISH.

HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT
WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. SOME STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ATTM WILL GO WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS
FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE WX SCENARIO. MODELS DO SHOW
ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY MRNG THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARDS THE SERN
US. THE PROBLEM ATTM IS TRYING TO TIME THESE DISTURBANCES AND
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. ALSO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND WOULD BE THE
CHC OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USING A TOTAL QPF TOOL
FROM TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MRNG...THE TOTAL RAINFALL WAS ARND 2
INCHES. SO FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL NEED A FFA...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...MCS NOW OVER MID TN IS MOVING SE TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY. THE BEST TIMING FOR TSRA AT KMSL AND KHSV WILL BE BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHRA/TSRA MAY TAPER OFF
AFTER 00Z BUT ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY
DEVELOP MORE SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MRNG. THUS
EXPECT VFR FROM 00Z THRU 18Z...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA
THAT WOULD DEVELOP.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  86  71  86 /  60  70  60  60
SHOALS        71  87  72  87 /  60  70  60  60
VINEMONT      70  86  70  85 /  60  70  60  60
FAYETTEVILLE  68  84  68  84 /  60  70  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   70  85  70  85 /  60  70  60  60
FORT PAYNE    69  84  69  84 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011952
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE MCS THAT WAS OVER MO THIS MRNG IS NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE EXTENDING FROM OUR TN
ZONES THRU MADISON COUNTY AND INTO MORGAN COUNTY. AS A RESULT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR MOST OF THE TN
VALLEY...EXCEPT COLBERT/CULLMAN/FRANKLIN (AL) COUNTIES. BEHIND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE OF STORMS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX WILL
DIMINISH.

HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT
WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. SOME STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ATTM WILL GO WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS
FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE WX SCENARIO. MODELS DO SHOW
ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY MRNG THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARDS THE SERN
US. THE PROBLEM ATTM IS TRYING TO TIME THESE DISTURBANCES AND
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. ALSO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND WOULD BE THE
CHC OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USING A TOTAL QPF TOOL
FROM TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MRNG...THE TOTAL RAINFALL WAS ARND 2
INCHES. SO FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL NEED A FFA...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...MCS NOW OVER MID TN IS MOVING SE TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY. THE BEST TIMING FOR TSRA AT KMSL AND KHSV WILL BE BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHRA/TSRA MAY TAPER OFF
AFTER 00Z BUT ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY
DEVELOP MORE SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MRNG. THUS
EXPECT VFR FROM 00Z THRU 18Z...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA
THAT WOULD DEVELOP.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  86  71  86 /  60  70  60  60
SHOALS        71  87  72  87 /  60  70  60  60
VINEMONT      70  86  70  85 /  60  70  60  60
FAYETTEVILLE  68  84  68  84 /  60  70  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   70  85  70  85 /  60  70  60  60
FORT PAYNE    69  84  69  84 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
106 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL INTERESTING AND IMPORTANT MESO-SCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SURPRISE FEATURE IS
A POCKET OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
SOUNDINGS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA THIS MORNING HAVE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST UNDER 1.20 INCHES. THE OTHER FEATURE IS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL LIKELY HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE IS WEAKENING...AND DOWNSTREAM CORFIDI VECTORS
SHOW MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE REMNANTS
OF THIS SYSTEM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS HAVE
SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-20. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LOWERED A FEW DEGREES.

DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM...
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME FOR TODAY.


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. VCTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
AT KMGM AND KTOI. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z TO 12Z ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE RE-
INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF STORM FORMATION. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PRIMARILY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  86  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  50  50
ANNISTON    70  86  71  87  70 /  60  70  50  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  91  72 /  50  60  40  40  50
CALERA      72  87  73  89  71 /  50  60  40  40  50
AUBURN      71  86  72  89  72 /  50  60  40  30  30
MONTGOMERY  73  89  72  92  73 /  50  60  30  30  30
TROY        73  89  72  91  72 /  50  60  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
106 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL INTERESTING AND IMPORTANT MESO-SCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SURPRISE FEATURE IS
A POCKET OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
SOUNDINGS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA THIS MORNING HAVE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST UNDER 1.20 INCHES. THE OTHER FEATURE IS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL LIKELY HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE IS WEAKENING...AND DOWNSTREAM CORFIDI VECTORS
SHOW MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE REMNANTS
OF THIS SYSTEM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS HAVE
SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-20. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LOWERED A FEW DEGREES.

DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM...
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME FOR TODAY.


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. VCTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
AT KMGM AND KTOI. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z TO 12Z ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE RE-
INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF STORM FORMATION. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PRIMARILY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  86  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  50  50
ANNISTON    70  86  71  87  70 /  60  70  50  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  91  72 /  50  60  40  40  50
CALERA      72  87  73  89  71 /  50  60  40  40  50
AUBURN      71  86  72  89  72 /  50  60  40  30  30
MONTGOMERY  73  89  72  92  73 /  50  60  30  30  30
TROY        73  89  72  91  72 /  50  60  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
106 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL INTERESTING AND IMPORTANT MESO-SCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SURPRISE FEATURE IS
A POCKET OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
SOUNDINGS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA THIS MORNING HAVE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST UNDER 1.20 INCHES. THE OTHER FEATURE IS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL LIKELY HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE IS WEAKENING...AND DOWNSTREAM CORFIDI VECTORS
SHOW MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE REMNANTS
OF THIS SYSTEM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS HAVE
SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-20. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LOWERED A FEW DEGREES.

DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM...
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME FOR TODAY.


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. VCTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
AT KMGM AND KTOI. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z TO 12Z ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE RE-
INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF STORM FORMATION. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PRIMARILY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  86  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  50  50
ANNISTON    70  86  71  87  70 /  60  70  50  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  91  72 /  50  60  40  40  50
CALERA      72  87  73  89  71 /  50  60  40  40  50
AUBURN      71  86  72  89  72 /  50  60  40  30  30
MONTGOMERY  73  89  72  92  73 /  50  60  30  30  30
TROY        73  89  72  91  72 /  50  60  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
106 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL INTERESTING AND IMPORTANT MESO-SCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SURPRISE FEATURE IS
A POCKET OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
SOUNDINGS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA THIS MORNING HAVE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST UNDER 1.20 INCHES. THE OTHER FEATURE IS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL LIKELY HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE IS WEAKENING...AND DOWNSTREAM CORFIDI VECTORS
SHOW MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE REMNANTS
OF THIS SYSTEM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS HAVE
SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-20. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LOWERED A FEW DEGREES.

DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM...
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME FOR TODAY.


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. VCTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
AT KMGM AND KTOI. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z TO 12Z ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE RE-
INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF STORM FORMATION. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PRIMARILY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  86  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  50  50
ANNISTON    70  86  71  87  70 /  60  70  50  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  91  72 /  50  60  40  40  50
CALERA      72  87  73  89  71 /  50  60  40  40  50
AUBURN      71  86  72  89  72 /  50  60  40  30  30
MONTGOMERY  73  89  72  92  73 /  50  60  30  30  30
TROY        73  89  72  91  72 /  50  60  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
106 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL INTERESTING AND IMPORTANT MESO-SCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SURPRISE FEATURE IS
A POCKET OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
SOUNDINGS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA THIS MORNING HAVE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST UNDER 1.20 INCHES. THE OTHER FEATURE IS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL LIKELY HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE IS WEAKENING...AND DOWNSTREAM CORFIDI VECTORS
SHOW MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE REMNANTS
OF THIS SYSTEM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS HAVE
SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-20. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LOWERED A FEW DEGREES.

DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM...
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME FOR TODAY.


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. VCTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
AT KMGM AND KTOI. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z TO 12Z ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE RE-
INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF STORM FORMATION. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PRIMARILY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  86  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  50  50
ANNISTON    70  86  71  87  70 /  60  70  50  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  91  72 /  50  60  40  40  50
CALERA      72  87  73  89  71 /  50  60  40  40  50
AUBURN      71  86  72  89  72 /  50  60  40  30  30
MONTGOMERY  73  89  72  92  73 /  50  60  30  30  30
TROY        73  89  72  91  72 /  50  60  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011727
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1028 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BE THE FOCUS
OF OUR WEATHER TODAY BUT THE CAUSE OF OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS PULLING GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWATS INCREASE TO ~2 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS PICKING UP
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONGER WIND GUSTS OUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE MCS THIS MORNING AND THERE SEEMS TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERLY THAN
SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT OF THE MCS AT THIS TIME. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WINDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...MCS NOW OVER MID TN IS MOVING SE TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY. THE BEST TIMING FOR TSRA AT KMSL AND KHSV WILL BE BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHRA/TSRA MAY TAPER OFF
AFTER 00Z BUT ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY
DEVELOP MORE SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MRNG. THUS
EXPECT VFR FROM 00Z THRU 18Z...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA
THAT WOULD DEVELOP.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011727
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1028 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BE THE FOCUS
OF OUR WEATHER TODAY BUT THE CAUSE OF OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS PULLING GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWATS INCREASE TO ~2 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS PICKING UP
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONGER WIND GUSTS OUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE MCS THIS MORNING AND THERE SEEMS TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERLY THAN
SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT OF THE MCS AT THIS TIME. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WINDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...MCS NOW OVER MID TN IS MOVING SE TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY. THE BEST TIMING FOR TSRA AT KMSL AND KHSV WILL BE BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHRA/TSRA MAY TAPER OFF
AFTER 00Z BUT ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY
DEVELOP MORE SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MRNG. THUS
EXPECT VFR FROM 00Z THRU 18Z...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA
THAT WOULD DEVELOP.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011727
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1028 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BE THE FOCUS
OF OUR WEATHER TODAY BUT THE CAUSE OF OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS PULLING GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWATS INCREASE TO ~2 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS PICKING UP
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONGER WIND GUSTS OUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE MCS THIS MORNING AND THERE SEEMS TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERLY THAN
SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT OF THE MCS AT THIS TIME. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WINDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...MCS NOW OVER MID TN IS MOVING SE TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY. THE BEST TIMING FOR TSRA AT KMSL AND KHSV WILL BE BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHRA/TSRA MAY TAPER OFF
AFTER 00Z BUT ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY
DEVELOP MORE SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MRNG. THUS
EXPECT VFR FROM 00Z THRU 18Z...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA
THAT WOULD DEVELOP.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011528 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1028 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. LOWERED POP VALUES FOR THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINTS/WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BE THE FOCUS
OF OUR WEATHER TODAY BUT THE CAUSE OF OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS PULLING GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWATS INCREASE TO ~2 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS PICKING UP
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONGER WIND GUSTS OUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE MCS THIS MORNING AND THERE SEEMS TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERLY THAN
SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT OF THE MCS AT THIS TIME. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WINDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A TSTRM CMPLX MOVG SE ACROSS MO WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AM. TIMING FROM VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX WILL IMPACT THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS AND VIS/CIG
REDUCTIONS PSBL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LATE AM AND EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND IN THE OVERNIGHT...AS
ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN TIMING DIFF BTWN
MODELS...DID ONLY TEMPO FOR TSTM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY PM.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011528 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1028 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. LOWERED POP VALUES FOR THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINTS/WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BE THE FOCUS
OF OUR WEATHER TODAY BUT THE CAUSE OF OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS PULLING GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWATS INCREASE TO ~2 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS PICKING UP
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONGER WIND GUSTS OUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE MCS THIS MORNING AND THERE SEEMS TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERLY THAN
SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT OF THE MCS AT THIS TIME. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WINDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A TSTRM CMPLX MOVG SE ACROSS MO WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AM. TIMING FROM VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX WILL IMPACT THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS AND VIS/CIG
REDUCTIONS PSBL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LATE AM AND EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND IN THE OVERNIGHT...AS
ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN TIMING DIFF BTWN
MODELS...DID ONLY TEMPO FOR TSTM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY PM.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011500
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1000 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL INTERESTING AND IMPORTANT MESO-SCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SURPRISE FEATURE IS
A POCKET OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
SOUNDINGS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA THIS MORNING HAVE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST UNDER 1.20 INCHES. THE OTHER FEATURE IS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL LIKELY HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE IS WEAKENING...AND DOWNSTREAM CORFIDI VECTORS
SHOW MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE REMNANTS
OF THIS SYSTEM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS HAVE
SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-20. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LOWERED A FEW DEGREES.

DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM...
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME FOR TODAY.


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE ONLY IMPACT TO TAF SITES SHOULD
BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT WILL HANG AROUND AT THE NORTHERN
SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
SCENARIO IS LOW AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO
INCLUDE VCTS FARTHER SOUTH AT KMGM AND KTOI...THOUGH THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TO THESE SITES IS A BIT LOWER THAN FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE WAVES
MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN
HIGH.  THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
AN MCV DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE
REGION. NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS AND NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE
MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL
OF THESE FACTORS HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE HWO FOR NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF
MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN
THE HWO AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    83  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  84  73  87  73  88 /  60  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  86  72  88  72  91 /  50  50  60  40  40
CALERA      84  72  87  73  89 /  50  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  87  73  89  72  92 /  40  50  60  30  30
TROY        87  73  89  72  91 /  40  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011500
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1000 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL INTERESTING AND IMPORTANT MESO-SCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SURPRISE FEATURE IS
A POCKET OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
SOUNDINGS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA THIS MORNING HAVE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST UNDER 1.20 INCHES. THE OTHER FEATURE IS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL LIKELY HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE IS WEAKENING...AND DOWNSTREAM CORFIDI VECTORS
SHOW MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE REMNANTS
OF THIS SYSTEM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS HAVE
SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-20. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LOWERED A FEW DEGREES.

DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM...
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME FOR TODAY.


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE ONLY IMPACT TO TAF SITES SHOULD
BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT WILL HANG AROUND AT THE NORTHERN
SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
SCENARIO IS LOW AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO
INCLUDE VCTS FARTHER SOUTH AT KMGM AND KTOI...THOUGH THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TO THESE SITES IS A BIT LOWER THAN FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE WAVES
MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN
HIGH.  THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
AN MCV DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE
REGION. NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS AND NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE
MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL
OF THESE FACTORS HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE HWO FOR NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF
MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN
THE HWO AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    83  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  84  73  87  73  88 /  60  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  86  72  88  72  91 /  50  50  60  40  40
CALERA      84  72  87  73  89 /  50  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  87  73  89  72  92 /  40  50  60  30  30
TROY        87  73  89  72  91 /  40  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011159 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
659 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
LITTLE BIT OF A QUIETER NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THIS POINT LAST NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST IS MAINLY IN CONTROL
OF WX CONDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS ACROSS NRN TN. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME
FAIRLY MILD/SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TREND IS
XPCTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WELL ADVERTISED WEAK FRONT COLD TO
THE NW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SEWD. IN ADDITION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AND TRANSLATE INTO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN H7-H5...THE THREAT FOR BOWING
SEGMENTS WITHIN MULTICELL CLUSTERS CERTAINLY LOOKS REASONABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST BRIEF
CONVECTIVE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MIXING TO THE SFC WITHIN THESE BOWING
SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH
IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY ALSO RESULT IN A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT...PENDING THE INTENSITY/NUMBER OF UPPER WAVES
THAT MOVE OVER THE CNTRL TN VALLEY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS XPCTED IN THE OVERALL WX FORECAST/PATTERN HEADING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CAT...AS ADDITIONAL FRONTS AT THE SFC COUPLED WITH
UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NW.
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE INSTANCES OF MORE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS FORECAST
UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO CARRY INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES HINTING AT ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT STALLING
JUST TO THE N OF THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE SE REGION BECOMES A BIT MORE W TO E...WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN
WEAKENING A BIT. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE IN MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING EWD ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH PREDOM ACTIVE/WET WX XPCTED
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY EVENING. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE THEN SUGGESTING PERHAPS A TEMPO REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL
AROUND THE LATE SUN/MON TIME FRAME...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE N SWD THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A TSTRM CMPLX MOVG SE ACROSS MO WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AM. TIMING FROM VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX WILL IMPACT THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS AND VIS/CIG
REDUCTIONS PSBL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LATE AM AND EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND IN THE OVERNIGHT...AS
ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN TIMING DIFF BTWN
MODELS...DID ONLY TEMPO FOR TSTM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY PM.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011159 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
659 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
LITTLE BIT OF A QUIETER NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THIS POINT LAST NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST IS MAINLY IN CONTROL
OF WX CONDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS ACROSS NRN TN. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME
FAIRLY MILD/SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TREND IS
XPCTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WELL ADVERTISED WEAK FRONT COLD TO
THE NW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SEWD. IN ADDITION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AND TRANSLATE INTO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN H7-H5...THE THREAT FOR BOWING
SEGMENTS WITHIN MULTICELL CLUSTERS CERTAINLY LOOKS REASONABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST BRIEF
CONVECTIVE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MIXING TO THE SFC WITHIN THESE BOWING
SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH
IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY ALSO RESULT IN A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT...PENDING THE INTENSITY/NUMBER OF UPPER WAVES
THAT MOVE OVER THE CNTRL TN VALLEY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS XPCTED IN THE OVERALL WX FORECAST/PATTERN HEADING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CAT...AS ADDITIONAL FRONTS AT THE SFC COUPLED WITH
UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NW.
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE INSTANCES OF MORE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS FORECAST
UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO CARRY INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES HINTING AT ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT STALLING
JUST TO THE N OF THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE SE REGION BECOMES A BIT MORE W TO E...WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN
WEAKENING A BIT. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE IN MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING EWD ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH PREDOM ACTIVE/WET WX XPCTED
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY EVENING. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE THEN SUGGESTING PERHAPS A TEMPO REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL
AROUND THE LATE SUN/MON TIME FRAME...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE N SWD THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A TSTRM CMPLX MOVG SE ACROSS MO WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AM. TIMING FROM VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX WILL IMPACT THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS AND VIS/CIG
REDUCTIONS PSBL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LATE AM AND EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND IN THE OVERNIGHT...AS
ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN TIMING DIFF BTWN
MODELS...DID ONLY TEMPO FOR TSTM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY PM.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011153
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE WAVES
MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN
HIGH.  THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
AN MCV DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE
REGION. NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS AND NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE
MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL
OF THESE FACTORS HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE HWO FOR NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF
MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN
THE HWO AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE ONLY IMPACT TO TAF SITES SHOULD
BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT WILL HANG AROUND AT THE NORTHERN
SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
SCENARIO IS LOW AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO
INCLUDE VCTS FARTHER SOUTH AT KMGM AND KTOI...THOUGH THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TO THESE SITES IS A BIT LOWER THAN FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011153
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE WAVES
MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN
HIGH.  THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
AN MCV DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE
REGION. NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS AND NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE
MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL
OF THESE FACTORS HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE HWO FOR NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF
MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN
THE HWO AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE ONLY IMPACT TO TAF SITES SHOULD
BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT WILL HANG AROUND AT THE NORTHERN
SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
SCENARIO IS LOW AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO
INCLUDE VCTS FARTHER SOUTH AT KMGM AND KTOI...THOUGH THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TO THESE SITES IS A BIT LOWER THAN FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011153
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE WAVES
MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN
HIGH.  THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
AN MCV DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE
REGION. NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS AND NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE
MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL
OF THESE FACTORS HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE HWO FOR NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF
MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN
THE HWO AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE ONLY IMPACT TO TAF SITES SHOULD
BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT WILL HANG AROUND AT THE NORTHERN
SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
SCENARIO IS LOW AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO
INCLUDE VCTS FARTHER SOUTH AT KMGM AND KTOI...THOUGH THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TO THESE SITES IS A BIT LOWER THAN FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011153
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE WAVES
MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN
HIGH.  THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
AN MCV DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE
REGION. NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS AND NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE
MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL
OF THESE FACTORS HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE HWO FOR NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF
MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN
THE HWO AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE ONLY IMPACT TO TAF SITES SHOULD
BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT WILL HANG AROUND AT THE NORTHERN
SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
SCENARIO IS LOW AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO
INCLUDE VCTS FARTHER SOUTH AT KMGM AND KTOI...THOUGH THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TO THESE SITES IS A BIT LOWER THAN FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011025
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
525 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE BIT OF A QUIETER NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THIS POINT LAST NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST IS MAINLY IN CONTROL
OF WX CONDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS ACROSS NRN TN. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME
FAIRLY MILD/SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TREND IS
XPCTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WELL ADVERTISED WEAK FRONT COLD TO
THE NW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SEWD. IN ADDITION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AND TRANSLATE INTO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN H7-H5...THE THREAT FOR BOWING
SEGMENTS WITHIN MULTICELL CLUSTERS CERTAINLY LOOKS REASONABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST BRIEF
CONVECTIVE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MIXING TO THE SFC WITHIN THESE BOWING
SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH
IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY ALSO RESULT IN A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT...PENDING THE INTENSITY/NUMBER OF UPPER WAVES
THAT MOVE OVER THE CNTRL TN VALLEY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS XPCTED IN THE OVERALL WX FORECAST/PATTERN HEADING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CAT...AS ADDITIONAL FRONTS AT THE SFC COUPLED WITH
UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NW.
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE INSTANCES OF MORE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS FORECAST
UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO CARRY INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES HINTING AT ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT STALLING
JUST TO THE N OF THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE SE REGION BECOMES A BIT MORE W TO E...WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN
WEAKENING A BIT. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE IN MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING EWD ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH PREDOM ACTIVE/WET WX XPCTED
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY EVENING. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE THEN SUGGESTING PERHAPS A TEMPO REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL
AROUND THE LATE SUN/MON TIME FRAME...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE N SWD THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1244 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10-11Z TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW/SCT CLOUD DECK A0A 2KFT DEVELOPING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME HAZE/PATCHY FOG. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 14-15Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF VCSH/TSRA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  71  87  71 /  70  60  60  60
SHOALS        86  71  89  71 /  70  60  60  60
VINEMONT      85  70  85  69 /  70  60  60  50
FAYETTEVILLE  83  68  82  68 /  70  60  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   82  69  84  69 /  70  60  60  50
FORT PAYNE    84  68  83  68 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010949
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
449 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF MS..AL AND WESTERN GA THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE NORTHWEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THAT TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOR TODAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY LESS
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH LESS
MECHANICAL FORCING AND SHEAR DUE MOSTLY TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
TROF THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY FORMING ALONG A
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON
SHIFTING WELL INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON AFFECTING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NEARS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ENHANCING THE LIFT MOSTLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME FRAME
THOUGH WITH LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECS AND ADJUST
DOWN FOR EXTRA CLOUDS AND CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT]...A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE STRETCH WESTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH A CONTINUED MOIST DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2 INCHES AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG TO AID IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE HAS BEEN DRAWN OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA IN THE VICINITY OF RICHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS RATHER MINIMAL THURSDAY
AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS INDICATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DIMINISHING
THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT MENTION OF
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN MID
LEVEL TROUGH. SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE
PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO LOWER 90S...AND AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
INCREASED MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH AND BECOME ISOLATED
AT BEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS LOOKING RATHER
MOIST COURTESY OF PINCHING OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST...EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
01.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH AND EAST CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BETTER WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
FORMING EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALSO. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  72  91  75  92 /  40  30  30  10  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  76  93 /  40  30  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  79  90  78  90 /  30  30  40  20  20
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  73  94 /  30  30  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  89  71  93  71  93 /  40  40  30  20  20
CAMDEN      89  72  92  72  93 /  40  40  40  20  30
CRESTVIEW   91  70  93  72  94 /  30  30  40  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010949
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
449 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF MS..AL AND WESTERN GA THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE NORTHWEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THAT TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOR TODAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY LESS
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH LESS
MECHANICAL FORCING AND SHEAR DUE MOSTLY TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
TROF THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY FORMING ALONG A
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON
SHIFTING WELL INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON AFFECTING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NEARS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ENHANCING THE LIFT MOSTLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME FRAME
THOUGH WITH LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECS AND ADJUST
DOWN FOR EXTRA CLOUDS AND CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT]...A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE STRETCH WESTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH A CONTINUED MOIST DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2 INCHES AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG TO AID IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE HAS BEEN DRAWN OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA IN THE VICINITY OF RICHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS RATHER MINIMAL THURSDAY
AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS INDICATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DIMINISHING
THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT MENTION OF
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN MID
LEVEL TROUGH. SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE
PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO LOWER 90S...AND AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
INCREASED MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH AND BECOME ISOLATED
AT BEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS LOOKING RATHER
MOIST COURTESY OF PINCHING OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST...EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
01.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH AND EAST CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BETTER WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
FORMING EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALSO. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  72  91  75  92 /  40  30  30  10  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  76  93 /  40  30  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  79  90  78  90 /  30  30  40  20  20
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  73  94 /  30  30  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  89  71  93  71  93 /  40  40  30  20  20
CAMDEN      89  72  92  72  93 /  40  40  40  20  30
CRESTVIEW   91  70  93  72  94 /  30  30  40  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010949
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
449 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF MS..AL AND WESTERN GA THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE NORTHWEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THAT TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOR TODAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY LESS
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH LESS
MECHANICAL FORCING AND SHEAR DUE MOSTLY TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
TROF THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY FORMING ALONG A
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON
SHIFTING WELL INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON AFFECTING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NEARS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ENHANCING THE LIFT MOSTLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME FRAME
THOUGH WITH LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECS AND ADJUST
DOWN FOR EXTRA CLOUDS AND CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT]...A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE STRETCH WESTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH A CONTINUED MOIST DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2 INCHES AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG TO AID IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE HAS BEEN DRAWN OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA IN THE VICINITY OF RICHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS RATHER MINIMAL THURSDAY
AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS INDICATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DIMINISHING
THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT MENTION OF
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN MID
LEVEL TROUGH. SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE
PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO LOWER 90S...AND AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
INCREASED MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH AND BECOME ISOLATED
AT BEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS LOOKING RATHER
MOIST COURTESY OF PINCHING OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST...EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
01.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH AND EAST CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BETTER WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
FORMING EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALSO. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  72  91  75  92 /  40  30  30  10  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  76  93 /  40  30  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  79  90  78  90 /  30  30  40  20  20
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  73  94 /  30  30  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  89  71  93  71  93 /  40  40  30  20  20
CAMDEN      89  72  92  72  93 /  40  40  40  20  30
CRESTVIEW   91  70  93  72  94 /  30  30  40  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010949
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
449 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF MS..AL AND WESTERN GA THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE NORTHWEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THAT TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOR TODAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY LESS
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH LESS
MECHANICAL FORCING AND SHEAR DUE MOSTLY TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
TROF THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY FORMING ALONG A
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON
SHIFTING WELL INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON AFFECTING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NEARS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ENHANCING THE LIFT MOSTLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME FRAME
THOUGH WITH LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECS AND ADJUST
DOWN FOR EXTRA CLOUDS AND CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT]...A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE STRETCH WESTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH A CONTINUED MOIST DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2 INCHES AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG TO AID IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE HAS BEEN DRAWN OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA IN THE VICINITY OF RICHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS RATHER MINIMAL THURSDAY
AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS INDICATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DIMINISHING
THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT MENTION OF
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN MID
LEVEL TROUGH. SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE
PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO LOWER 90S...AND AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
INCREASED MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH AND BECOME ISOLATED
AT BEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS LOOKING RATHER
MOIST COURTESY OF PINCHING OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST...EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
01.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH AND EAST CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BETTER WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
FORMING EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALSO. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  72  91  75  92 /  40  30  30  10  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  76  93 /  40  30  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  79  90  78  90 /  30  30  40  20  20
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  73  94 /  30  30  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  89  71  93  71  93 /  40  40  30  20  20
CAMDEN      89  72  92  72  93 /  40  40  40  20  30
CRESTVIEW   91  70  93  72  94 /  30  30  40  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010912 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE
WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN HIGH.
THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA
FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF AN MCV
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREMELY
COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE REGION. NOT TO
MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND
NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL OF THESE FACTORS
HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY PARTICULAR
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO FOR
NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF MORE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE HWO
AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    85  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  73  87  73  88 /  70  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  88  72  88  72  91 /  70  50  60  40  40
CALERA      86  72  87  73  89 /  60  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  89  73  89  72  92 /  50  50  60  30  30
TROY        89  73  89  72  91 /  50  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010912 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE
WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN HIGH.
THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA
FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF AN MCV
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREMELY
COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE REGION. NOT TO
MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND
NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL OF THESE FACTORS
HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY PARTICULAR
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO FOR
NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF MORE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE HWO
AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    85  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  73  87  73  88 /  70  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  88  72  88  72  91 /  70  50  60  40  40
CALERA      86  72  87  73  89 /  60  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  89  73  89  72  92 /  50  50  60  30  30
TROY        89  73  89  72  91 /  50  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 010912 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE
WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN HIGH.
THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA
FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF AN MCV
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREMELY
COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE REGION. NOT TO
MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND
NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL OF THESE FACTORS
HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY PARTICULAR
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO FOR
NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF MORE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE HWO
AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    85  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  73  87  73  88 /  70  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  88  72  88  72  91 /  70  50  60  40  40
CALERA      86  72  87  73  89 /  60  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  89  73  89  72  92 /  50  50  60  30  30
TROY        89  73  89  72  91 /  50  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010912 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE
WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN HIGH.
THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA
FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF AN MCV
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREMELY
COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE REGION. NOT TO
MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND
NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL OF THESE FACTORS
HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY PARTICULAR
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO FOR
NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF MORE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE HWO
AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    85  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  73  87  73  88 /  70  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  88  72  88  72  91 /  70  50  60  40  40
CALERA      86  72  87  73  89 /  60  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  89  73  89  72  92 /  50  50  60  30  30
TROY        89  73  89  72  91 /  50  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 010858
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE MAY HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE
WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES...SO STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE A DEFINITELY POSSIBILITY WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL
TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME
HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN HIGH. THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY
BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION.
ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF AN MCV DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREMELY COMMON WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE REGION. NOT TO MENTION THE FACT
THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF
TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL OF THESE FACTORS HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME
FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    85  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  73  87  73  88 /  70  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  88  72  88  72  91 /  70  50  60  40  40
CALERA      86  72  87  73  89 /  60  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  89  73  89  72  92 /  50  50  60  30  30
TROY        89  73  89  72  91 /  50  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010858
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE MAY HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE
WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES...SO STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE A DEFINITELY POSSIBILITY WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL
TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME
HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN HIGH. THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY
BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION.
ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF AN MCV DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREMELY COMMON WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE REGION. NOT TO MENTION THE FACT
THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF
TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL OF THESE FACTORS HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME
FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    85  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  73  87  73  88 /  70  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  88  72  88  72  91 /  70  50  60  40  40
CALERA      86  72  87  73  89 /  60  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  89  73  89  72  92 /  50  50  60  30  30
TROY        89  73  89  72  91 /  50  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010544 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1244 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 841 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN MONDAY AND VALUES
RUNNING ABOUT 5-6 BELOW YESTERDAY AT 01Z. WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE SMOKE STREAM INTO THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TO THIS...CLOUDS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEAR SUNRISE PER LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.
THUS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE PLUME OF SMOKE AND INCOMING
CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP US UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/HAZY SKIES TONIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO SUGGEST THAT A FEW WEAK
BOUNDARIES EXIST AROUND THE REGION AND THESE COULD ALLOW FOR A VERY
ISOLATED STORM TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE ANY STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE AS THE SHORTWAVE
IN MID-WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10-11Z TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW/SCT CLOUD DECK A0A 2KFT DEVELOPING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME HAZE/PATCHY FOG. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 14-15Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF VCSH/TSRA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010544 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1244 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 841 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN MONDAY AND VALUES
RUNNING ABOUT 5-6 BELOW YESTERDAY AT 01Z. WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE SMOKE STREAM INTO THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TO THIS...CLOUDS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEAR SUNRISE PER LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.
THUS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE PLUME OF SMOKE AND INCOMING
CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP US UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/HAZY SKIES TONIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO SUGGEST THAT A FEW WEAK
BOUNDARIES EXIST AROUND THE REGION AND THESE COULD ALLOW FOR A VERY
ISOLATED STORM TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE ANY STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE AS THE SHORTWAVE
IN MID-WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10-11Z TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW/SCT CLOUD DECK A0A 2KFT DEVELOPING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME HAZE/PATCHY FOG. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 14-15Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF VCSH/TSRA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010455 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
01.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS AND BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...DECREASED POPS OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE, UPSTREAM COLD
POOL DID NOT SUFFICIENTLY DEVELOP AND CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA DESPITE INSTABILITY RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND AND GREATLY REDUCED TSTM/SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT
SUSPECT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SPARSE TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. /08 JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...KEPT SCATTERED TSTMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM THOMASVILLE, AL...SOUTH TO ORANGE BEACH, AL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST...AFTER MIDNIGHT TSTMS AND SHOWERS BECOME
SCATTERED EAST OF THAT LINE AND ISOLATED WEST. ROBUST MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH UPSTREAM PROPAGATING EASTWARD IN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH HAS TAPPED INTO THE LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HAS CREATED
TWO LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER SOUTHERN, LA AND THE OTHER
NORTH OF HWY 84 ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE ONE TO THE NORTH
LOOKS MOST IMPRESSIVE AS RADAR INDICATES AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT AND THE GUST FRONT PROPAGATING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ARE CWA. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP
INSTABILITY RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE AL/MS
BORDER (ML CAPE 2500 J/KG...SFC TEMPS LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS 70S)
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BORDER. RAP13 AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO
DEPICT THIS INSTABILITY (THOUGH HRRR IS A LOT WEAKER WITH IT 500 TO
1000 J/KG) AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE IT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG ITS AXIS. TAILORED CURRENT FORECAST TO
FOLLOW THIS TREND. /08 JW

AVIATION UPDATE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSTMS
TONIGHT. ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...INTERESTING AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY STORMS OVER THE
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY RACED SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE WERE COMMON. SOME MINOR
WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BALDWIN
COUNTY...PRIMARILY TREES AND POWER LINES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...NOW REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ONLY THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND AREA BAYS...AS WELL AS GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WELL OFFSHORE...WE WILL BE
CANCELING THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
FCST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. FOR THE EVENING...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL ADVERTISE FOR A CHANCE OF FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WITH LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THESE LATE NIGHT
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE ONES THIS AFTERNOON
WERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN ALONG THE
COAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION...BUT A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NE-
SW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY ACT AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH
THIS FOCUS...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT (WHAT LITTLE THERE WAS) MOVING
EAST AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE
TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE AS THOSE OF TODAY
EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ALL
LOCATIONS. 12/DS

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. STICKING WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND...HOVERING
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AS THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS CONTINUES TO BROADEN OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND
MORE SEASONAL WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
FOR NOW...EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND SUNSET
ON THE HOLIDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THAT EVENING.

NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE GRIPS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TRENDING
WARMER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND COASTLINE.
07/MB

&&

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  90  74  91  75 /  20  50  20  30  10
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  90  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  78  89  79 /  20  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  91  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  72  92  71 /  20  50  30  30  10
CAMDEN      72  90  72  90  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   74  91  72  92  73 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 010455 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
01.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS AND BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...DECREASED POPS OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE, UPSTREAM COLD
POOL DID NOT SUFFICIENTLY DEVELOP AND CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA DESPITE INSTABILITY RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND AND GREATLY REDUCED TSTM/SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT
SUSPECT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SPARSE TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. /08 JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...KEPT SCATTERED TSTMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM THOMASVILLE, AL...SOUTH TO ORANGE BEACH, AL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST...AFTER MIDNIGHT TSTMS AND SHOWERS BECOME
SCATTERED EAST OF THAT LINE AND ISOLATED WEST. ROBUST MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH UPSTREAM PROPAGATING EASTWARD IN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH HAS TAPPED INTO THE LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HAS CREATED
TWO LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER SOUTHERN, LA AND THE OTHER
NORTH OF HWY 84 ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE ONE TO THE NORTH
LOOKS MOST IMPRESSIVE AS RADAR INDICATES AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT AND THE GUST FRONT PROPAGATING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ARE CWA. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP
INSTABILITY RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE AL/MS
BORDER (ML CAPE 2500 J/KG...SFC TEMPS LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS 70S)
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BORDER. RAP13 AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO
DEPICT THIS INSTABILITY (THOUGH HRRR IS A LOT WEAKER WITH IT 500 TO
1000 J/KG) AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE IT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG ITS AXIS. TAILORED CURRENT FORECAST TO
FOLLOW THIS TREND. /08 JW

AVIATION UPDATE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSTMS
TONIGHT. ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...INTERESTING AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY STORMS OVER THE
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY RACED SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE WERE COMMON. SOME MINOR
WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BALDWIN
COUNTY...PRIMARILY TREES AND POWER LINES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...NOW REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ONLY THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND AREA BAYS...AS WELL AS GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WELL OFFSHORE...WE WILL BE
CANCELING THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
FCST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. FOR THE EVENING...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL ADVERTISE FOR A CHANCE OF FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WITH LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THESE LATE NIGHT
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE ONES THIS AFTERNOON
WERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN ALONG THE
COAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION...BUT A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NE-
SW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY ACT AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH
THIS FOCUS...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT (WHAT LITTLE THERE WAS) MOVING
EAST AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE
TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE AS THOSE OF TODAY
EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ALL
LOCATIONS. 12/DS

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. STICKING WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND...HOVERING
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AS THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS CONTINUES TO BROADEN OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND
MORE SEASONAL WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
FOR NOW...EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND SUNSET
ON THE HOLIDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THAT EVENING.

NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE GRIPS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TRENDING
WARMER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND COASTLINE.
07/MB

&&

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  90  74  91  75 /  20  50  20  30  10
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  90  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  78  89  79 /  20  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  91  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  72  92  71 /  20  50  30  30  10
CAMDEN      72  90  72  90  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   74  91  72  92  73 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY SANK SOUTHWARD EARLIER OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ENHANCED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
1/3 COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED REASONABLE BUT UNDER SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE FOR
THE MOST PART...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS THE EFFECTS FROM THAT EARLIER BOUNDARY
INTERACTION LESSEN. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST WHERE THE DEW
POINTS WERE RUNNING LOWER.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010306 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY SANK SOUTHWARD EARLIER OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ENHANCED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
1/3 COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED REASONABLE BUT UNDER SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE FOR
THE MOST PART...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS THE EFFECTS FROM THAT EARLIER BOUNDARY
INTERACTION LESSEN. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST WHERE THE DEW
POINTS WERE RUNNING LOWER.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    66  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  70  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  91  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
CALERA      69  88  71  87  72 /  30  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      68  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  60  40  40  50  30
TROY        69  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/16



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010306 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY SANK SOUTHWARD EARLIER OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ENHANCED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
1/3 COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED REASONABLE BUT UNDER SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE FOR
THE MOST PART...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS THE EFFECTS FROM THAT EARLIER BOUNDARY
INTERACTION LESSEN. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST WHERE THE DEW
POINTS WERE RUNNING LOWER.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    66  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  70  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  91  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
CALERA      69  88  71  87  72 /  30  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      68  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  60  40  40  50  30
TROY        69  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/16



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010306 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY SANK SOUTHWARD EARLIER OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ENHANCED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
1/3 COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED REASONABLE BUT UNDER SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE FOR
THE MOST PART...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS THE EFFECTS FROM THAT EARLIER BOUNDARY
INTERACTION LESSEN. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST WHERE THE DEW
POINTS WERE RUNNING LOWER.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    66  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  70  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  91  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
CALERA      69  88  71  87  72 /  30  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      68  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  60  40  40  50  30
TROY        69  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/16




000
FXUS64 KBMX 010306 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY SANK SOUTHWARD EARLIER OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ENHANCED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
1/3 COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED REASONABLE BUT UNDER SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE FOR
THE MOST PART...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS THE EFFECTS FROM THAT EARLIER BOUNDARY
INTERACTION LESSEN. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST WHERE THE DEW
POINTS WERE RUNNING LOWER.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    66  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  70  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  91  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
CALERA      69  88  71  87  72 /  30  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      68  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  60  40  40  50  30
TROY        69  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/16




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities