Home > Products > State Listing > Alabama Data
Latest:
 AFDHUN |  AFDBMX |  AFDMOB |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 241448 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
848 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS CONTINUE TO STREAM BY WITHIN THE BRISK SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT IS JUST ENTERING
NW AL AT THIS HOUR AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SWLY WIND WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING GREATLY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FOLLOW A NORMAL
DIURNAL CURVE TODAY, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THOSE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 512 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CDFNT IS NOW EXTENDING ACROSS WRN TN WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL GO THRU
KMSL ARND 15Z AND KHSV BY 16Z. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY 18Z/19Z. BEHIND THE
CDFNT WINDS/CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ARND 19Z...AFTER 19Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241448 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
848 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS CONTINUE TO STREAM BY WITHIN THE BRISK SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT IS JUST ENTERING
NW AL AT THIS HOUR AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SWLY WIND OF WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING GREATLY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FOLLOW A NORMAL
DIURNAL CURVE TODAY, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THOSE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 512 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CDFNT IS NOW EXTENDING ACROSS WRN TN WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL GO THRU
KMSL ARND 15Z AND KHSV BY 16Z. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY 18Z/19Z. BEHIND THE
CDFNT WINDS/CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ARND 19Z...AFTER 19Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241448 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
848 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS CONTINUE TO STREAM BY WITHIN THE BRISK SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT IS JUST ENTERING
NW AL AT THIS HOUR AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SWLY WIND OF WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING GREATLY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FOLLOW A NORMAL
DIURNAL CURVE TODAY, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THOSE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 512 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CDFNT IS NOW EXTENDING ACROSS WRN TN WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL GO THRU
KMSL ARND 15Z AND KHSV BY 16Z. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY 18Z/19Z. BEHIND THE
CDFNT WINDS/CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ARND 19Z...AFTER 19Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241448 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
848 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS CONTINUE TO STREAM BY WITHIN THE BRISK SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT IS JUST ENTERING
NW AL AT THIS HOUR AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SWLY WIND OF WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING GREATLY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FOLLOW A NORMAL
DIURNAL CURVE TODAY, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THOSE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 512 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CDFNT IS NOW EXTENDING ACROSS WRN TN WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL GO THRU
KMSL ARND 15Z AND KHSV BY 16Z. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY 18Z/19Z. BEHIND THE
CDFNT WINDS/CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ARND 19Z...AFTER 19Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241448 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
848 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS CONTINUE TO STREAM BY WITHIN THE BRISK SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT IS JUST ENTERING
NW AL AT THIS HOUR AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SWLY WIND OF WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING GREATLY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FOLLOW A NORMAL
DIURNAL CURVE TODAY, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THOSE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 512 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CDFNT IS NOW EXTENDING ACROSS WRN TN WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL GO THRU
KMSL ARND 15Z AND KHSV BY 16Z. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY 18Z/19Z. BEHIND THE
CDFNT WINDS/CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ARND 19Z...AFTER 19Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241448 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
848 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS CONTINUE TO STREAM BY WITHIN THE BRISK SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT IS JUST ENTERING
NW AL AT THIS HOUR AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SWLY WIND WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING GREATLY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FOLLOW A NORMAL
DIURNAL CURVE TODAY, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THOSE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 512 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CDFNT IS NOW EXTENDING ACROSS WRN TN WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL GO THRU
KMSL ARND 15Z AND KHSV BY 16Z. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY 18Z/19Z. BEHIND THE
CDFNT WINDS/CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ARND 19Z...AFTER 19Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 241310 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
710 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AT THE START OF THE
SHIFT. A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THIS RAINFALL AXIS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SAME AREAS THIS MORNING AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW CHANGES LITTLE.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TODAY...CAUSING REMAINING MOISTURE AND MORNING CLOUDINESS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...NOT LOOKING FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
UNTIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING AND NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. COOL AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES SET UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 50 AT THE BEACHES. UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION AMPLIFIES STRONGLY LATE TONIGHT
WITH A STRONG H30 MILLIBAR JET STREAK (130 TO 160 KNOTS) ON ITS EAST
SIDE SETTING UP FROM THE MID SOUTH TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ENHANCED JET STREAK DYNAMICS IN THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE HIGH LEVEL JET BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND AT THE BEACHES...6 TO 8
PERIOD SWELL AND SPRING TIDAL CYCLES...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAIN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACH AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. /10

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. UNTIL THEN...THE 300 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES TO 160 TO 190 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE JET (140 TO 160 KNOTS)
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...AND THEN
ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY EVENING.

RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE
FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. INCREASING MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE OF RAIN...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST
ZONES (NEAR WAYNESBORO MS) TO NEAR 80 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ZONES (DESTIN FL). TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE NEAR WAYNESBORO TO NEAR ONE INCH NEAR DESTIN.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR MASS IN SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR BELOW. ADEQUATE SATURATION IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER FAVORS
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS...WITH SNOW FORMING AS THE ICE
CRYSTALS FALL. AS SNOW FALLS BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...IT WILL FIRST RESULT IN COMPLETE MELTING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C...AND THE RESULT OF
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION DRAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EARTH.

THE BEST CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR INLAND
MISSISSIPPI...INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
ZONES FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3 AM. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 3 AM AS A DRY AIRMASS
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 62 DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 32 TO 37 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58
TO 63 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 37 TO 41
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 41 TO 47 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 48 TO 53 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG
THE COAST. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH LOW BASES (IFR-MVFR) ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. COULD BE A FEW MORNING -SHRA MAINLY EAST OF PNS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT (W-NW 8 TO 13 KNOTS)
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING MOB/BFM...TO EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND PNS
AND POINTS EAST. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS INDICATE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE
REMAINED SO FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS HAVE ALSO MOVED BELOW
CRITERIA...SO WILL END THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE OPEN GULF
MARINE ZONES AND REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THIS MORNING FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE OF
FRONTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST GRIDDED
WIND/GUST GRIDS SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  44  61  37  61 /  05  05  30  40  00
PENSACOLA   76  47  59  41  61 /  05  10  40  70  05
DESTIN      74  51  57  43  61 /  20  20  50  80  10
EVERGREEN   74  42  60  34  59 /  05  05  30  60  00
WAYNESBORO  67  40  59  31  62 /  05  00  05  20  00
CAMDEN      71  41  59  34  59 /  05  05  20  40  00
CRESTVIEW   77  47  58  37  61 /  10  10  50  70  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 241310 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
710 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AT THE START OF THE
SHIFT. A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THIS RAINFALL AXIS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SAME AREAS THIS MORNING AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW CHANGES LITTLE.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TODAY...CAUSING REMAINING MOISTURE AND MORNING CLOUDINESS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...NOT LOOKING FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
UNTIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING AND NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. COOL AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES SET UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 50 AT THE BEACHES. UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION AMPLIFIES STRONGLY LATE TONIGHT
WITH A STRONG H30 MILLIBAR JET STREAK (130 TO 160 KNOTS) ON ITS EAST
SIDE SETTING UP FROM THE MID SOUTH TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ENHANCED JET STREAK DYNAMICS IN THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE HIGH LEVEL JET BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND AT THE BEACHES...6 TO 8
PERIOD SWELL AND SPRING TIDAL CYCLES...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAIN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACH AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. /10

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. UNTIL THEN...THE 300 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES TO 160 TO 190 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE JET (140 TO 160 KNOTS)
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...AND THEN
ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY EVENING.

RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE
FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. INCREASING MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE OF RAIN...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST
ZONES (NEAR WAYNESBORO MS) TO NEAR 80 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ZONES (DESTIN FL). TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE NEAR WAYNESBORO TO NEAR ONE INCH NEAR DESTIN.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR MASS IN SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR BELOW. ADEQUATE SATURATION IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER FAVORS
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS...WITH SNOW FORMING AS THE ICE
CRYSTALS FALL. AS SNOW FALLS BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...IT WILL FIRST RESULT IN COMPLETE MELTING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C...AND THE RESULT OF
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION DRAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EARTH.

THE BEST CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR INLAND
MISSISSIPPI...INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
ZONES FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3 AM. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 3 AM AS A DRY AIRMASS
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 62 DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 32 TO 37 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58
TO 63 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 37 TO 41
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 41 TO 47 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 48 TO 53 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG
THE COAST. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH LOW BASES (IFR-MVFR) ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. COULD BE A FEW MORNING -SHRA MAINLY EAST OF PNS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT (W-NW 8 TO 13 KNOTS)
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING MOB/BFM...TO EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND PNS
AND POINTS EAST. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS INDICATE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE
REMAINED SO FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS HAVE ALSO MOVED BELOW
CRITERIA...SO WILL END THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE OPEN GULF
MARINE ZONES AND REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THIS MORNING FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE OF
FRONTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST GRIDDED
WIND/GUST GRIDS SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  44  61  37  61 /  05  05  30  40  00
PENSACOLA   76  47  59  41  61 /  05  10  40  70  05
DESTIN      74  51  57  43  61 /  20  20  50  80  10
EVERGREEN   74  42  60  34  59 /  05  05  30  60  00
WAYNESBORO  67  40  59  31  62 /  05  00  05  20  00
CAMDEN      71  41  59  34  59 /  05  05  20  40  00
CRESTVIEW   77  47  58  37  61 /  10  10  50  70  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 241150
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MAKE SUFFICIENT PROGRESS THROUGH SUNRISE
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THEN MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE
DAYTIME. WINDS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI THIS AM ARE RATHER
ROBUST WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS. HOWEVER...AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW TREKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD LIGHTEN. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR WINDS...ALBEIT BREEZY AND GUSTY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST (GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A TROY TO CRAWFORD LINE) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING MOISTURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FAR NORTHWEST
HAS ALREADY SEE THEIR CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THEN FALL SOME AND MAYBE GO BACK UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON AT BEST WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL EFFECTS.
THE I20 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TODAY AND THE I85
CORRIDOR SHOULD 10 DEGREES OR SO. THINGS SHOULD COOL OFF NICELY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT...BUT SOME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK
AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE FREEZING.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER AT BRINGING
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT MAY BE ALL WE GET WITH THIS
ONE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO SCRAPE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING. SO FOR MOST...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AT 10-12 KTS THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THRU LATER TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
W/NW.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  35  54  34  53 /  10  10  10  20  10
ANNISTON    67  38  55  36  54 /  10  10  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  40  56  37  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  38  57  35  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      65  40  57  37  55 /  10  10  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  43  56  39  54 /  10  10  20  60  10
MONTGOMERY  72  41  59  37  59 /  10  10  20  40  10
TROY        74  41  58  37  57 /  10  10  30  60  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 241150
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MAKE SUFFICIENT PROGRESS THROUGH SUNRISE
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THEN MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE
DAYTIME. WINDS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI THIS AM ARE RATHER
ROBUST WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS. HOWEVER...AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW TREKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD LIGHTEN. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR WINDS...ALBEIT BREEZY AND GUSTY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST (GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A TROY TO CRAWFORD LINE) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING MOISTURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FAR NORTHWEST
HAS ALREADY SEE THEIR CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THEN FALL SOME AND MAYBE GO BACK UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON AT BEST WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL EFFECTS.
THE I20 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TODAY AND THE I85
CORRIDOR SHOULD 10 DEGREES OR SO. THINGS SHOULD COOL OFF NICELY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT...BUT SOME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK
AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE FREEZING.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER AT BRINGING
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT MAY BE ALL WE GET WITH THIS
ONE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO SCRAPE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING. SO FOR MOST...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AT 10-12 KTS THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THRU LATER TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
W/NW.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  35  54  34  53 /  10  10  10  20  10
ANNISTON    67  38  55  36  54 /  10  10  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  40  56  37  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  38  57  35  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      65  40  57  37  55 /  10  10  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  43  56  39  54 /  10  10  20  60  10
MONTGOMERY  72  41  59  37  59 /  10  10  20  40  10
TROY        74  41  58  37  57 /  10  10  30  60  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 241150
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MAKE SUFFICIENT PROGRESS THROUGH SUNRISE
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THEN MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE
DAYTIME. WINDS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI THIS AM ARE RATHER
ROBUST WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS. HOWEVER...AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW TREKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD LIGHTEN. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR WINDS...ALBEIT BREEZY AND GUSTY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST (GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A TROY TO CRAWFORD LINE) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING MOISTURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FAR NORTHWEST
HAS ALREADY SEE THEIR CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THEN FALL SOME AND MAYBE GO BACK UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON AT BEST WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL EFFECTS.
THE I20 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TODAY AND THE I85
CORRIDOR SHOULD 10 DEGREES OR SO. THINGS SHOULD COOL OFF NICELY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT...BUT SOME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK
AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE FREEZING.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER AT BRINGING
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT MAY BE ALL WE GET WITH THIS
ONE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO SCRAPE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING. SO FOR MOST...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AT 10-12 KTS THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THRU LATER TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
W/NW.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  35  54  34  53 /  10  10  10  20  10
ANNISTON    67  38  55  36  54 /  10  10  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  40  56  37  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  38  57  35  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      65  40  57  37  55 /  10  10  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  43  56  39  54 /  10  10  20  60  10
MONTGOMERY  72  41  59  37  59 /  10  10  20  40  10
TROY        74  41  58  37  57 /  10  10  30  60  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 241150
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MAKE SUFFICIENT PROGRESS THROUGH SUNRISE
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THEN MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE
DAYTIME. WINDS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI THIS AM ARE RATHER
ROBUST WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS. HOWEVER...AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW TREKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD LIGHTEN. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR WINDS...ALBEIT BREEZY AND GUSTY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST (GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A TROY TO CRAWFORD LINE) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING MOISTURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FAR NORTHWEST
HAS ALREADY SEE THEIR CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THEN FALL SOME AND MAYBE GO BACK UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON AT BEST WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL EFFECTS.
THE I20 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TODAY AND THE I85
CORRIDOR SHOULD 10 DEGREES OR SO. THINGS SHOULD COOL OFF NICELY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT...BUT SOME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK
AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE FREEZING.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER AT BRINGING
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT MAY BE ALL WE GET WITH THIS
ONE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO SCRAPE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING. SO FOR MOST...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AT 10-12 KTS THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THRU LATER TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
W/NW.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  35  54  34  53 /  10  10  10  20  10
ANNISTON    67  38  55  36  54 /  10  10  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  40  56  37  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  38  57  35  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      65  40  57  37  55 /  10  10  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  43  56  39  54 /  10  10  20  60  10
MONTGOMERY  72  41  59  37  59 /  10  10  20  40  10
TROY        74  41  58  37  57 /  10  10  30  60  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 241117
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AT THE START OF THE
SHIFT. A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THIS RAINFALL AXIS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SAME AREAS THIS MORNING AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW CHANGES LITTLE.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TODAY...CAUSING REMAINING MOISTURE AND MORNING CLOUDINESS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...NOT LOOKING FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
UNTIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING AND NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. COOL AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES SET UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 50 AT THE BEACHES. UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION AMPLIFIES STRONGLY LATE TONIGHT
WITH A STRONG H30 MILLIBAR JET STREAK (130 TO 160 KNOTS) ON ITS EAST
SIDE SETTING UP FROM THE MID SOUTH TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ENHANCED JET STREAK DYNAMICS IN THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE HIGH LEVEL JET BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND AT THE BEACHES...6 TO 8
PERIOD SWELL AND SPRING TIDAL CYCLES...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAIN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACH AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. /10

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. UNTIL THEN...THE 300 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES TO 160 TO 190 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE JET (140 TO 160 KNOTS)
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...AND THEN
ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE ENTIRE REACH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
THE INCREASE IN RAIN...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES (NEAR
WAYNESBORO MS) TO NEAR 80 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES
(DESTIN FL).

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR MASS IN SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR BELOW. ADEQUATE SATURATION IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER FAVORS
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS...WITH SNOW FORMING AS THE ICE
CRYSTALS FALL. AS SNOW FALLS BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...IT WILL FIRST RESULT IN COMPLETE MELTING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C...AND THE RESULT OF
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION DRAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EARTH FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3
AM...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR INLAND MISSISSIPPI...INLAND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ZONES. THIS RAIN/SNOW
MIX LINE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS THE EVENT NEARS.
FOR NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 62 DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 32 TO 37 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58
TO 63 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 37 TO 41
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 41 TO 47 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 48 TO 53 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG
THE COAST. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH LOW BASES (IFR-MVFR) ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. COULD BE A FEW MORNING -SHRA MAINLY EAST OF PNS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT (W-NW 8 TO 13 KNOTS)
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING MOB/BFM...TO EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND PNS
AND POINTS EAST. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS INDICATE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE
REMAINED SO FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS HAVE ALSO MOVED BELOW
CRITERIA...SO WILL END THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE OPEN GULF
MARINE ZONES AND REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THIS MORNING FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE OF
FRONTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST GRIDDED
WIND/GUST GRIDS SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  44  61  37  61 /  05  05  30  40  00
PENSACOLA   76  47  59  41  61 /  05  10  40  70  05
DESTIN      74  51  57  43  61 /  20  20  50  80  10
EVERGREEN   74  42  60  34  59 /  05  05  30  60  00
WAYNESBORO  67  40  59  31  62 /  05  00  10  20  00
CAMDEN      71  41  59  34  59 /  05  05  20  40  00
CRESTVIEW   77  47  58  37  61 /  10  10  50  70  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 241117
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AT THE START OF THE
SHIFT. A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THIS RAINFALL AXIS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SAME AREAS THIS MORNING AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW CHANGES LITTLE.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TODAY...CAUSING REMAINING MOISTURE AND MORNING CLOUDINESS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...NOT LOOKING FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
UNTIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING AND NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. COOL AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES SET UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 50 AT THE BEACHES. UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION AMPLIFIES STRONGLY LATE TONIGHT
WITH A STRONG H30 MILLIBAR JET STREAK (130 TO 160 KNOTS) ON ITS EAST
SIDE SETTING UP FROM THE MID SOUTH TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ENHANCED JET STREAK DYNAMICS IN THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE HIGH LEVEL JET BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND AT THE BEACHES...6 TO 8
PERIOD SWELL AND SPRING TIDAL CYCLES...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAIN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACH AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. /10

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. UNTIL THEN...THE 300 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES TO 160 TO 190 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE JET (140 TO 160 KNOTS)
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...AND THEN
ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE ENTIRE REACH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
THE INCREASE IN RAIN...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES (NEAR
WAYNESBORO MS) TO NEAR 80 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES
(DESTIN FL).

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR MASS IN SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR BELOW. ADEQUATE SATURATION IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER FAVORS
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS...WITH SNOW FORMING AS THE ICE
CRYSTALS FALL. AS SNOW FALLS BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...IT WILL FIRST RESULT IN COMPLETE MELTING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C...AND THE RESULT OF
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION DRAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EARTH FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3
AM...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR INLAND MISSISSIPPI...INLAND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ZONES. THIS RAIN/SNOW
MIX LINE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS THE EVENT NEARS.
FOR NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 62 DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 32 TO 37 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58
TO 63 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 37 TO 41
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 41 TO 47 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 48 TO 53 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG
THE COAST. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH LOW BASES (IFR-MVFR) ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. COULD BE A FEW MORNING -SHRA MAINLY EAST OF PNS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT (W-NW 8 TO 13 KNOTS)
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING MOB/BFM...TO EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND PNS
AND POINTS EAST. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS INDICATE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE
REMAINED SO FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS HAVE ALSO MOVED BELOW
CRITERIA...SO WILL END THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE OPEN GULF
MARINE ZONES AND REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THIS MORNING FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE OF
FRONTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST GRIDDED
WIND/GUST GRIDS SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  44  61  37  61 /  05  05  30  40  00
PENSACOLA   76  47  59  41  61 /  05  10  40  70  05
DESTIN      74  51  57  43  61 /  20  20  50  80  10
EVERGREEN   74  42  60  34  59 /  05  05  30  60  00
WAYNESBORO  67  40  59  31  62 /  05  00  10  20  00
CAMDEN      71  41  59  34  59 /  05  05  20  40  00
CRESTVIEW   77  47  58  37  61 /  10  10  50  70  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 241117
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AT THE START OF THE
SHIFT. A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THIS RAINFALL AXIS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SAME AREAS THIS MORNING AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW CHANGES LITTLE.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TODAY...CAUSING REMAINING MOISTURE AND MORNING CLOUDINESS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...NOT LOOKING FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
UNTIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING AND NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. COOL AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES SET UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 50 AT THE BEACHES. UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION AMPLIFIES STRONGLY LATE TONIGHT
WITH A STRONG H30 MILLIBAR JET STREAK (130 TO 160 KNOTS) ON ITS EAST
SIDE SETTING UP FROM THE MID SOUTH TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ENHANCED JET STREAK DYNAMICS IN THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE HIGH LEVEL JET BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND AT THE BEACHES...6 TO 8
PERIOD SWELL AND SPRING TIDAL CYCLES...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAIN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACH AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. /10

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. UNTIL THEN...THE 300 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES TO 160 TO 190 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE JET (140 TO 160 KNOTS)
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...AND THEN
ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE ENTIRE REACH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
THE INCREASE IN RAIN...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES (NEAR
WAYNESBORO MS) TO NEAR 80 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES
(DESTIN FL).

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR MASS IN SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR BELOW. ADEQUATE SATURATION IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER FAVORS
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS...WITH SNOW FORMING AS THE ICE
CRYSTALS FALL. AS SNOW FALLS BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...IT WILL FIRST RESULT IN COMPLETE MELTING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C...AND THE RESULT OF
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION DRAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EARTH FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3
AM...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR INLAND MISSISSIPPI...INLAND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ZONES. THIS RAIN/SNOW
MIX LINE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS THE EVENT NEARS.
FOR NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 62 DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 32 TO 37 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58
TO 63 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 37 TO 41
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 41 TO 47 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 48 TO 53 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG
THE COAST. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH LOW BASES (IFR-MVFR) ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. COULD BE A FEW MORNING -SHRA MAINLY EAST OF PNS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT (W-NW 8 TO 13 KNOTS)
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING MOB/BFM...TO EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND PNS
AND POINTS EAST. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS INDICATE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE
REMAINED SO FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS HAVE ALSO MOVED BELOW
CRITERIA...SO WILL END THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE OPEN GULF
MARINE ZONES AND REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THIS MORNING FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE OF
FRONTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST GRIDDED
WIND/GUST GRIDS SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  44  61  37  61 /  05  05  30  40  00
PENSACOLA   76  47  59  41  61 /  05  10  40  70  05
DESTIN      74  51  57  43  61 /  20  20  50  80  10
EVERGREEN   74  42  60  34  59 /  05  05  30  60  00
WAYNESBORO  67  40  59  31  62 /  05  00  10  20  00
CAMDEN      71  41  59  34  59 /  05  05  20  40  00
CRESTVIEW   77  47  58  37  61 /  10  10  50  70  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 241117
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AT THE START OF THE
SHIFT. A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THIS RAINFALL AXIS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SAME AREAS THIS MORNING AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW CHANGES LITTLE.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TODAY...CAUSING REMAINING MOISTURE AND MORNING CLOUDINESS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...NOT LOOKING FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
UNTIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING AND NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. COOL AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES SET UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 50 AT THE BEACHES. UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION AMPLIFIES STRONGLY LATE TONIGHT
WITH A STRONG H30 MILLIBAR JET STREAK (130 TO 160 KNOTS) ON ITS EAST
SIDE SETTING UP FROM THE MID SOUTH TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ENHANCED JET STREAK DYNAMICS IN THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE HIGH LEVEL JET BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND AT THE BEACHES...6 TO 8
PERIOD SWELL AND SPRING TIDAL CYCLES...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAIN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACH AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. /10

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. UNTIL THEN...THE 300 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES TO 160 TO 190 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE JET (140 TO 160 KNOTS)
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...AND THEN
ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE ENTIRE REACH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
THE INCREASE IN RAIN...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES (NEAR
WAYNESBORO MS) TO NEAR 80 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES
(DESTIN FL).

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR MASS IN SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR BELOW. ADEQUATE SATURATION IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER FAVORS
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS...WITH SNOW FORMING AS THE ICE
CRYSTALS FALL. AS SNOW FALLS BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...IT WILL FIRST RESULT IN COMPLETE MELTING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C...AND THE RESULT OF
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION DRAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EARTH FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3
AM...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR INLAND MISSISSIPPI...INLAND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ZONES. THIS RAIN/SNOW
MIX LINE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS THE EVENT NEARS.
FOR NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 62 DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 32 TO 37 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58
TO 63 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 37 TO 41
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 41 TO 47 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 48 TO 53 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG
THE COAST. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH LOW BASES (IFR-MVFR) ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. COULD BE A FEW MORNING -SHRA MAINLY EAST OF PNS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT (W-NW 8 TO 13 KNOTS)
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING MOB/BFM...TO EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND PNS
AND POINTS EAST. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS INDICATE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE
REMAINED SO FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS HAVE ALSO MOVED BELOW
CRITERIA...SO WILL END THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE OPEN GULF
MARINE ZONES AND REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THIS MORNING FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE OF
FRONTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST GRIDDED
WIND/GUST GRIDS SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  44  61  37  61 /  05  05  30  40  00
PENSACOLA   76  47  59  41  61 /  05  10  40  70  05
DESTIN      74  51  57  43  61 /  20  20  50  80  10
EVERGREEN   74  42  60  34  59 /  05  05  30  60  00
WAYNESBORO  67  40  59  31  62 /  05  00  10  20  00
CAMDEN      71  41  59  34  59 /  05  05  20  40  00
CRESTVIEW   77  47  58  37  61 /  10  10  50  70  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241112
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
512 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 335 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/
PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO THE MS RIVER...WITH SFC WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
PARENT LOW HAS LIFTED WELL INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION...WHERE MOST OF
THE PRECIP NOW RESIDES. LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY NWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY DURING THE
LATE MORNING HRS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE DELAYED A FEW HRS IN SCATTERING
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHRTWV
LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS. SFC WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE W AND GUSTING NEAR 25 MPH THIS MORNING SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO MORE OF A 10-15 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TAKES AIM AT THE MID SOUTH
REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR THIS MORNING ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE KEYING ON A SECONDARY SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH/NWLY FLOW PATTERN APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY HEADING
TOWARD MID WEEK. TEMP PROFILES/CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES WOULD MAYBE
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOK LIKES LIKE MOST OF THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE
N AND E OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS SUCH...THE WX FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY LOOKS NICE...ALBEIT SEASONABLY COOL...WITH OVERALL TEMPS
PERHAPS 5-10F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR. THE LATTER HALF
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A STRONGER SFC HIGH OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS BUILDING SEWD TOWARD THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK...WITH
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL WX XPCTED FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...CDFNT IS NOW EXTENDING ACROSS WRN TN WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL GO THRU
KMSL ARND 15Z AND KHSV BY 16Z. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY 18Z/19Z. BEHIND THE
CDFNT WINDS/CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ARND 19Z...AFTER 19Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241112
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
512 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 335 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/
PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO THE MS RIVER...WITH SFC WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
PARENT LOW HAS LIFTED WELL INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION...WHERE MOST OF
THE PRECIP NOW RESIDES. LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY NWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY DURING THE
LATE MORNING HRS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE DELAYED A FEW HRS IN SCATTERING
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHRTWV
LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS. SFC WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE W AND GUSTING NEAR 25 MPH THIS MORNING SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO MORE OF A 10-15 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TAKES AIM AT THE MID SOUTH
REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR THIS MORNING ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE KEYING ON A SECONDARY SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH/NWLY FLOW PATTERN APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY HEADING
TOWARD MID WEEK. TEMP PROFILES/CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES WOULD MAYBE
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOK LIKES LIKE MOST OF THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE
N AND E OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS SUCH...THE WX FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY LOOKS NICE...ALBEIT SEASONABLY COOL...WITH OVERALL TEMPS
PERHAPS 5-10F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR. THE LATTER HALF
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A STRONGER SFC HIGH OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS BUILDING SEWD TOWARD THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK...WITH
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL WX XPCTED FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...CDFNT IS NOW EXTENDING ACROSS WRN TN WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL GO THRU
KMSL ARND 15Z AND KHSV BY 16Z. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY 18Z/19Z. BEHIND THE
CDFNT WINDS/CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ARND 19Z...AFTER 19Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 241041
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
441 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MAKE SUFFICIENT PROGRESS THROUGH SUNRISE
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THEN MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE
DAYTIME. WINDS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI THIS AM ARE RATHER
ROBUST WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS. HOWEVER...AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW TREKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD LIGHTEN. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR WINDS...ALBEIT BREEZY AND GUSTY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST (GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A TROY TO CRAWFORD LINE) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING MOISTURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FAR NORTHWEST
HAS ALREADY SEE THEIR CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THEN FALL SOME AND MAYBE GO BACK UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON AT BEST WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL EFFECTS.
THE I20 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TODAY AND THE I85
CORRIDOR SHOULD 10 DEGREES OR SO. THINGS SHOULD COOL OFF NICELY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT...BUT SOME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK
AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE FREEZING.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER AT BRINGING
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT MAY BE ALL WE GET WITH THIS
ONE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO SCRAPE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING. SO FOR MOST...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS ARE BACK IN THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FOR THE
NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS ISSUES. MODELS HAVE
REALLY HIT HARD AT NOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 12Z...THAT SEEMS SENSIBLE. SO ADDED IN IFR
FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT TCL AND MGM. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW IN
WHICH MGM DROPS BUT NOT LONG. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z AS THE
FRONT CLEARS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  35  54  34  53 /  10  10  10  20  10
ANNISTON    67  38  55  36  54 /  10  10  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  40  56  37  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  38  57  35  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      65  40  57  37  55 /  10  10  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  43  56  39  54 /  10  10  20  60  10
MONTGOMERY  72  41  59  37  59 /  10  10  20  40  10
TROY        74  41  58  37  57 /  10  10  30  60  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16





000
FXUS64 KHUN 240935
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
335 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO THE MS RIVER...WITH SFC WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
PARENT LOW HAS LIFTED WELL INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION...WHERE MOST OF
THE PRECIP NOW RESIDES. LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY NWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY DURING THE
LATE MORNING HRS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE DELAYED A FEW HRS IN SCATTERING
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHRTWV
LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS. SFC WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE W AND GUSTING NEAR 25 MPH THIS MORNING SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO MORE OF A 10-15 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TAKES AIM AT THE MID SOUTH
REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR THIS MORNING ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE KEYING ON A SECONDARY SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH/NWLY FLOW PATTERN APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY HEADING
TOWARD MID WEEK. TEMP PROFILES/CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES WOULD MAYBE
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOK LIKES LIKE MOST OF THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE
N AND E OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS SUCH...THE WX FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY LOOKS NICE...ALBEIT SEASONABLY COOL...WITH OVERALL TEMPS
PERHAPS 5-10F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR. THE LATTER HALF
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A STRONGER SFC HIGH OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS BUILDING SEWD TOWARD THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK...WITH
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL WX XPCTED FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. STRONG SSW FLOW OF 12G20 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
NIGHT...WITH MVFR STRATUS CIGS ARND 1500 FT LIKELY TO IMPACT HSV
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD
RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH WIND SHIFT TO WSW AT MSL/HSV
BY 14/16Z. A BAND OF LGT SHRA MAY ACCOMPANY FROPA AND HAVE INDICATED
THIS WITH VCSH. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE AFTN...WITH LGT/VRBL FLOW TOMORROW EVENING.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    60  36  54  32 /  10   0   0  10
SHOALS        60  35  54  31 /  10   0   0  10
VINEMONT      61  34  54  33 /  10   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  58  33  52  30 /  10   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   60  34  55  33 /  10   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    61  34  55  33 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 240549
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 832 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SECONDARY REGION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY -- ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING. THUS...THE THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION HAS NOW ENDED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST THRU 06Z...AND
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE LINGERING IN THE SAME REGION FOR REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A GRADUAL EROSION OF STRATUS TO THE SW OF
THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...BASED ON STRENGTH OF MOIST/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE...WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES REQUIRED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS...AS TEMPS HAVE NOW
RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION. MINIMUM
VALUES FOR THE 00-12Z PERIOD LIKELY OCCURRED AT 00Z...AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S UNTIL A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 13-17Z. WIND
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SURFACE
OBS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE ALABAMA/SRN
TENNESSEE WERE INCREASED. CONDITIONS IN ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST BELOW OUR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD TONIGHT...BUT STILL
EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
AND ADJACENT RIDGE TOPS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. STRONG SSW FLOW OF 12G20 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
NIGHT...WITH MVFR STRATUS CIGS ARND 1500 FT LIKELY TO IMPACT HSV
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD
RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH WIND SHIFT TO WSW AT MSL/HSV
BY 14/16Z. A BAND OF LGT SHRA MAY ACCOMPANY FROPA AND HAVE INDICATED
THIS WITH VCSH. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE AFTN...WITH LGT/VRBL FLOW TOMORROW EVENING.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 240549
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 832 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SECONDARY REGION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY -- ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING. THUS...THE THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION HAS NOW ENDED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST THRU 06Z...AND
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE LINGERING IN THE SAME REGION FOR REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A GRADUAL EROSION OF STRATUS TO THE SW OF
THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...BASED ON STRENGTH OF MOIST/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE...WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES REQUIRED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS...AS TEMPS HAVE NOW
RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION. MINIMUM
VALUES FOR THE 00-12Z PERIOD LIKELY OCCURRED AT 00Z...AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S UNTIL A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 13-17Z. WIND
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SURFACE
OBS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE ALABAMA/SRN
TENNESSEE WERE INCREASED. CONDITIONS IN ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST BELOW OUR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD TONIGHT...BUT STILL
EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
AND ADJACENT RIDGE TOPS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. STRONG SSW FLOW OF 12G20 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
NIGHT...WITH MVFR STRATUS CIGS ARND 1500 FT LIKELY TO IMPACT HSV
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD
RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH WIND SHIFT TO WSW AT MSL/HSV
BY 14/16Z. A BAND OF LGT SHRA MAY ACCOMPANY FROPA AND HAVE INDICATED
THIS WITH VCSH. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE AFTN...WITH LGT/VRBL FLOW TOMORROW EVENING.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 240549
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 832 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SECONDARY REGION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY -- ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING. THUS...THE THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION HAS NOW ENDED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST THRU 06Z...AND
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE LINGERING IN THE SAME REGION FOR REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A GRADUAL EROSION OF STRATUS TO THE SW OF
THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...BASED ON STRENGTH OF MOIST/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE...WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES REQUIRED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS...AS TEMPS HAVE NOW
RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION. MINIMUM
VALUES FOR THE 00-12Z PERIOD LIKELY OCCURRED AT 00Z...AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S UNTIL A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 13-17Z. WIND
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SURFACE
OBS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE ALABAMA/SRN
TENNESSEE WERE INCREASED. CONDITIONS IN ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST BELOW OUR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD TONIGHT...BUT STILL
EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
AND ADJACENT RIDGE TOPS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. STRONG SSW FLOW OF 12G20 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
NIGHT...WITH MVFR STRATUS CIGS ARND 1500 FT LIKELY TO IMPACT HSV
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD
RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH WIND SHIFT TO WSW AT MSL/HSV
BY 14/16Z. A BAND OF LGT SHRA MAY ACCOMPANY FROPA AND HAVE INDICATED
THIS WITH VCSH. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE AFTN...WITH LGT/VRBL FLOW TOMORROW EVENING.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 240549
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 832 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SECONDARY REGION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY -- ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING. THUS...THE THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION HAS NOW ENDED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST THRU 06Z...AND
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE LINGERING IN THE SAME REGION FOR REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A GRADUAL EROSION OF STRATUS TO THE SW OF
THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...BASED ON STRENGTH OF MOIST/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE...WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES REQUIRED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS...AS TEMPS HAVE NOW
RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION. MINIMUM
VALUES FOR THE 00-12Z PERIOD LIKELY OCCURRED AT 00Z...AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S UNTIL A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 13-17Z. WIND
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SURFACE
OBS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE ALABAMA/SRN
TENNESSEE WERE INCREASED. CONDITIONS IN ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST BELOW OUR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD TONIGHT...BUT STILL
EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
AND ADJACENT RIDGE TOPS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. STRONG SSW FLOW OF 12G20 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
NIGHT...WITH MVFR STRATUS CIGS ARND 1500 FT LIKELY TO IMPACT HSV
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD
RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH WIND SHIFT TO WSW AT MSL/HSV
BY 14/16Z. A BAND OF LGT SHRA MAY ACCOMPANY FROPA AND HAVE INDICATED
THIS WITH VCSH. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE AFTN...WITH LGT/VRBL FLOW TOMORROW EVENING.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 240541
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BASICALLY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BE STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS CAUSING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS ARE BACK IN THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FOR THE
NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS ISSUES. MODELS HAVE
REALLY HIT HARD AT NOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 12Z...THAT SEEMS SENSIBLE. SO ADDED IN IFR
FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT TCL AND MGM. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW IN
WHICH MGM DROPS BUT NOT LONG. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z AS THE
FRONT CLEARS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 240541
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BASICALLY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BE STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS CAUSING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS ARE BACK IN THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FOR THE
NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS ISSUES. MODELS HAVE
REALLY HIT HARD AT NOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 12Z...THAT SEEMS SENSIBLE. SO ADDED IN IFR
FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT TCL AND MGM. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW IN
WHICH MGM DROPS BUT NOT LONG. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z AS THE
FRONT CLEARS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 240409 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1009 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARINE...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS WITH THE EVENING ISSUANCE. WHILE WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVER THE GULF WATERS...HAVE KEPT THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS PORTION AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO A MVFR CEILING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 240409 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1009 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARINE...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS WITH THE EVENING ISSUANCE. WHILE WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVER THE GULF WATERS...HAVE KEPT THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS PORTION AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO A MVFR CEILING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 240409 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1009 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARINE...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS WITH THE EVENING ISSUANCE. WHILE WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVER THE GULF WATERS...HAVE KEPT THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS PORTION AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO A MVFR CEILING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 240409 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1009 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARINE...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS WITH THE EVENING ISSUANCE. WHILE WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVER THE GULF WATERS...HAVE KEPT THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS PORTION AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO A MVFR CEILING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 240409 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1009 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARINE...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS WITH THE EVENING ISSUANCE. WHILE WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVER THE GULF WATERS...HAVE KEPT THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS PORTION AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO A MVFR CEILING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 240409 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1009 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARINE...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS WITH THE EVENING ISSUANCE. WHILE WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVER THE GULF WATERS...HAVE KEPT THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS PORTION AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO A MVFR CEILING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 240327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BASICALLY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BE STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS CAUSING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SQUALL LINE HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW
SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING IN WHICH SKIES AR VFR BEFORE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK FOR THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS
ISSUES. IN FACT ONLY LOCATION IN WHICH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL
BE AT TOI AFTER 8Z. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW WITH
EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  64  34  54  32 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  67  37  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  61  65  39  56  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  64  38  58  34 /  10  10   0   0  10
CALERA      62  64  38  57  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      60  70  41  56  38 /  10  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  61  72  40  59  35 /  10  10   0  10  20
TROY        62  74  41  58  35 /  10  10   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 240327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BASICALLY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BE STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS CAUSING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SQUALL LINE HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW
SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING IN WHICH SKIES AR VFR BEFORE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK FOR THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS
ISSUES. IN FACT ONLY LOCATION IN WHICH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL
BE AT TOI AFTER 8Z. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW WITH
EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  64  34  54  32 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  67  37  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  61  65  39  56  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  64  38  58  34 /  10  10   0   0  10
CALERA      62  64  38  57  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      60  70  41  56  38 /  10  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  61  72  40  59  35 /  10  10   0  10  20
TROY        62  74  41  58  35 /  10  10   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 240327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BASICALLY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BE STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS CAUSING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SQUALL LINE HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW
SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING IN WHICH SKIES AR VFR BEFORE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK FOR THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS
ISSUES. IN FACT ONLY LOCATION IN WHICH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL
BE AT TOI AFTER 8Z. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW WITH
EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  64  34  54  32 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  67  37  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  61  65  39  56  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  64  38  58  34 /  10  10   0   0  10
CALERA      62  64  38  57  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      60  70  41  56  38 /  10  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  61  72  40  59  35 /  10  10   0  10  20
TROY        62  74  41  58  35 /  10  10   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 240327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BASICALLY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BE STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS CAUSING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SQUALL LINE HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW
SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING IN WHICH SKIES AR VFR BEFORE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK FOR THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS
ISSUES. IN FACT ONLY LOCATION IN WHICH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL
BE AT TOI AFTER 8Z. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW WITH
EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  64  34  54  32 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  67  37  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  61  65  39  56  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  64  38  58  34 /  10  10   0   0  10
CALERA      62  64  38  57  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      60  70  41  56  38 /  10  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  61  72  40  59  35 /  10  10   0  10  20
TROY        62  74  41  58  35 /  10  10   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 240327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BASICALLY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BE STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS CAUSING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SQUALL LINE HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW
SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING IN WHICH SKIES AR VFR BEFORE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK FOR THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS
ISSUES. IN FACT ONLY LOCATION IN WHICH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL
BE AT TOI AFTER 8Z. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW WITH
EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  64  34  54  32 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  67  37  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  61  65  39  56  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  64  38  58  34 /  10  10   0   0  10
CALERA      62  64  38  57  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      60  70  41  56  38 /  10  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  61  72  40  59  35 /  10  10   0  10  20
TROY        62  74  41  58  35 /  10  10   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 240302 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 240302 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 240302 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 240302 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 240232
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
832 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SECONDARY REGION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY -- ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING. THUS...THE THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION HAS NOW ENDED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST THRU 06Z...AND
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE LINGERING IN THE SAME REGION FOR REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A GRADUAL EROSION OF STRATUS TO THE SW OF
THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...BASED ON STRENGTH OF MOIST/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE...WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES REQUIRED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS...AS TEMPS HAVE NOW
RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION. MINIMUM
VALUES FOR THE 00-12Z PERIOD LIKELY OCCURRED AT 00Z...AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S UNTIL A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 13-17Z. WIND
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN
SURFACE OBS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE
ALABAMA/SRN TENNESSEE WERE INCREASED. CONDITIONS IN ELEVATED TERRAIN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW OUR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD
TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ADJACENT RIDGE TOPS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 600 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT SECONDARY REGION OF SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE WHILE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL
LEAVE VCSH IN TAF FOR BOTH MSL/HSV THRU 24/02Z...BUT ACTIVITY MAY BE
GONE WELL BEFORE THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A BRISK SSW FLOW OF 12G20 KTS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. DESPITE CLEARING TREND NOTED TO THE SW
OF THE REGION...PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND WILL INCLUDE MVFR CIGS /2500 FT/ THRU THE MID-MORNING HRS
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING...
WITH WIND SHIFT TO WSW AT MSL/HSV BY 15/17Z. A BAND OF LGT SHRA MAY
ACCOMPANY FROPA AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH VCSH. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WLY FLOW EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 313 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
AT 21Z...AREA SURFACE OBS AND WEATHER STATION REPORTS GENERALLY
INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY
WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10-15 MPH AND SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE WARM
FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH MISSISSIPPI
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. LAGGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT
WAS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THAT WAS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST ON THE HEELS OF THE
WARM FRONT. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING A QUICK EXIT OF
THE PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR JUST
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INVOLVING A DRY
SLOT MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR INVOLVING CONTINUED PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS SHOULD COME CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO TRENDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER
CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST.

ON MONDAY...A TRAILING AND OCCLUDING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WILL ONLY CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY UP
TO 18Z. FOLLOWING MONDAY...A MORE ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BETWEEN THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST- EAST COAST REGION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED. BY LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN MOVING THE NEXT
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE 12Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
GUIDANCE POPS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
HAVE FOLLOWED WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER
GFS MODEL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 240000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 313 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
AT 21Z...AREA SURFACE OBS AND WEATHER STATION REPORTS GENERALLY
INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY
WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10-15 MPH AND SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE WARM
FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH MISSISSIPPI
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. LAGGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT
WAS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THAT WAS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST ON THE HEELS OF THE
WARM FRONT. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING A QUICK EXIT OF
THE PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR JUST
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INVOLVING A DRY
SLOT MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR INVOLVING CONTINUED PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS SHOULD COME CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO TRENDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER
CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST.

ON MONDAY...A TRAILING AND OCCLUDING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WILL ONLY CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY UP
TO 18Z. FOLLOWING MONDAY...A MORE ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BETWEEN THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST- EAST COAST REGION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED. BY LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN MOVING THE NEXT
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE 12Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
GUIDANCE POPS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
HAVE FOLLOWED WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER
GFS MODEL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT SECONDARY REGION OF SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE WHILE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL
LEAVE VCSH IN TAF FOR BOTH MSL/HSV THRU 24/02Z...BUT ACTIVITY MAY BE
GONE WELL BEFORE THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A BRISK SSW FLOW OF 12G20 KTS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. DESPITE CLEARING TREND NOTED TO THE SW
OF THE REGION...PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND WILL INCLUDE MVFR CIGS /2500 FT/ THRU THE MID-MORNING HRS
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING...
WITH WIND SHIFT TO WSW AT MSL/HSV BY 15/17Z. A BAND OF LGT SHRA MAY
ACCOMPANY FROPA AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH VCSH. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WLY FLOW EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 240000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 313 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
AT 21Z...AREA SURFACE OBS AND WEATHER STATION REPORTS GENERALLY
INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY
WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10-15 MPH AND SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE WARM
FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH MISSISSIPPI
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. LAGGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT
WAS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THAT WAS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST ON THE HEELS OF THE
WARM FRONT. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING A QUICK EXIT OF
THE PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR JUST
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INVOLVING A DRY
SLOT MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR INVOLVING CONTINUED PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS SHOULD COME CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO TRENDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER
CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST.

ON MONDAY...A TRAILING AND OCCLUDING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WILL ONLY CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY UP
TO 18Z. FOLLOWING MONDAY...A MORE ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BETWEEN THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST- EAST COAST REGION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED. BY LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN MOVING THE NEXT
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE 12Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
GUIDANCE POPS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
HAVE FOLLOWED WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER
GFS MODEL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT SECONDARY REGION OF SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE WHILE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL
LEAVE VCSH IN TAF FOR BOTH MSL/HSV THRU 24/02Z...BUT ACTIVITY MAY BE
GONE WELL BEFORE THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A BRISK SSW FLOW OF 12G20 KTS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. DESPITE CLEARING TREND NOTED TO THE SW
OF THE REGION...PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND WILL INCLUDE MVFR CIGS /2500 FT/ THRU THE MID-MORNING HRS
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING...
WITH WIND SHIFT TO WSW AT MSL/HSV BY 15/17Z. A BAND OF LGT SHRA MAY
ACCOMPANY FROPA AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH VCSH. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WLY FLOW EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 240000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 313 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
AT 21Z...AREA SURFACE OBS AND WEATHER STATION REPORTS GENERALLY
INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY
WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10-15 MPH AND SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE WARM
FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH MISSISSIPPI
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. LAGGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT
WAS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THAT WAS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST ON THE HEELS OF THE
WARM FRONT. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING A QUICK EXIT OF
THE PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR JUST
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INVOLVING A DRY
SLOT MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR INVOLVING CONTINUED PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS SHOULD COME CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO TRENDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER
CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST.

ON MONDAY...A TRAILING AND OCCLUDING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WILL ONLY CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY UP
TO 18Z. FOLLOWING MONDAY...A MORE ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BETWEEN THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST- EAST COAST REGION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED. BY LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN MOVING THE NEXT
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE 12Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
GUIDANCE POPS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
HAVE FOLLOWED WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER
GFS MODEL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT SECONDARY REGION OF SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE WHILE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL
LEAVE VCSH IN TAF FOR BOTH MSL/HSV THRU 24/02Z...BUT ACTIVITY MAY BE
GONE WELL BEFORE THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A BRISK SSW FLOW OF 12G20 KTS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. DESPITE CLEARING TREND NOTED TO THE SW
OF THE REGION...PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND WILL INCLUDE MVFR CIGS /2500 FT/ THRU THE MID-MORNING HRS
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING...
WITH WIND SHIFT TO WSW AT MSL/HSV BY 15/17Z. A BAND OF LGT SHRA MAY
ACCOMPANY FROPA AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH VCSH. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WLY FLOW EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 240000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 313 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
AT 21Z...AREA SURFACE OBS AND WEATHER STATION REPORTS GENERALLY
INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY
WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10-15 MPH AND SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE WARM
FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH MISSISSIPPI
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. LAGGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT
WAS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THAT WAS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST ON THE HEELS OF THE
WARM FRONT. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING A QUICK EXIT OF
THE PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR JUST
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INVOLVING A DRY
SLOT MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR INVOLVING CONTINUED PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS SHOULD COME CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO TRENDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER
CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST.

ON MONDAY...A TRAILING AND OCCLUDING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WILL ONLY CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY UP
TO 18Z. FOLLOWING MONDAY...A MORE ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BETWEEN THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST- EAST COAST REGION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED. BY LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN MOVING THE NEXT
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE 12Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
GUIDANCE POPS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
HAVE FOLLOWED WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER
GFS MODEL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT SECONDARY REGION OF SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE WHILE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL
LEAVE VCSH IN TAF FOR BOTH MSL/HSV THRU 24/02Z...BUT ACTIVITY MAY BE
GONE WELL BEFORE THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A BRISK SSW FLOW OF 12G20 KTS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. DESPITE CLEARING TREND NOTED TO THE SW
OF THE REGION...PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND WILL INCLUDE MVFR CIGS /2500 FT/ THRU THE MID-MORNING HRS
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING...
WITH WIND SHIFT TO WSW AT MSL/HSV BY 15/17Z. A BAND OF LGT SHRA MAY
ACCOMPANY FROPA AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH VCSH. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WLY FLOW EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 232335
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT THE RAINFALL AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA IS CONTINUING TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IS ALSO LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. DRIER AIR
IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND RAINFALL OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00Z. SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW SPINS CLOSE TO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH.
THIS IS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR GA AND FL AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND RACES UP THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK VERY NICE AT THIS
TIME. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE I THINK NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SQUALL LINE HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW
SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING IN WHICH SKIES AR VFR BEFORE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK FOR THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS
ISSUES. IN FACT ONLY LOCATION IN WHICH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL
BE AT TOI AFTER 8Z. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW WITH
EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 232335
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT THE RAINFALL AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA IS CONTINUING TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IS ALSO LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. DRIER AIR
IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND RAINFALL OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00Z. SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW SPINS CLOSE TO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH.
THIS IS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR GA AND FL AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND RACES UP THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK VERY NICE AT THIS
TIME. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE I THINK NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SQUALL LINE HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW
SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING IN WHICH SKIES AR VFR BEFORE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK FOR THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS
ISSUES. IN FACT ONLY LOCATION IN WHICH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL
BE AT TOI AFTER 8Z. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW WITH
EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 232330 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 232330 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 232311 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 232311 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 232311 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 232311 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 232152
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  20  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  20  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 232152
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  20  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  20  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 232152
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  20  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  20  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 232152
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  20  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  20  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 232152
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  20  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  20  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 232152
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  20  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  20  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 232113
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
313 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 21Z...AREA SURFACE OBS AND WEATHER STATION REPORTS GENERALLY
INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY
WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10-15 MPH AND SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE WARM
FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH MISSISSIPPI
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. LAGGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT
WAS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THAT WAS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST ON THE HEELS OF THE
WARM FRONT. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING A QUICK EXIT OF
THE PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR JUST
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INVOLVING A DRY
SLOT MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR INVOLVING CONTINUED PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS SHOULD COME CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO TRENDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER
CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST.

ON MONDAY...A TRAILING AND OCCLUDING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WILL ONLY CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY UP
TO 18Z. FOLLOWING MONDAY...A MORE ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BETWEEN THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST- EAST COAST REGION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED. BY LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN MOVING THE NEXT
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE 12Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
GUIDANCE POPS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
HAVE FOLLOWED WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER
GFS MODEL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPANDING TO THE EAST OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS AROUND SUNSET. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DURING
THE EVENING...BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
PREVAILING TS. GUSTY WINDS...EXCEEDING 20KTS WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    52  59  34  53 /  30  20  10  10
SHOALS        53  58  35  54 /  30  20  10  10
VINEMONT      52  61  34  54 /  30  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  51  57  32  51 /  30  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   51  60  33  53 /  30  20  10  10
FORT PAYNE    51  60  33  52 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 232113
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
313 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 21Z...AREA SURFACE OBS AND WEATHER STATION REPORTS GENERALLY
INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY
WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10-15 MPH AND SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE WARM
FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH MISSISSIPPI
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. LAGGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT
WAS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THAT WAS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST ON THE HEELS OF THE
WARM FRONT. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING A QUICK EXIT OF
THE PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR JUST
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INVOLVING A DRY
SLOT MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR INVOLVING CONTINUED PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS SHOULD COME CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO TRENDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER
CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST.

ON MONDAY...A TRAILING AND OCCLUDING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WILL ONLY CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY UP
TO 18Z. FOLLOWING MONDAY...A MORE ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BETWEEN THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST- EAST COAST REGION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED. BY LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN MOVING THE NEXT
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE 12Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
GUIDANCE POPS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
HAVE FOLLOWED WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER
GFS MODEL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPANDING TO THE EAST OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS AROUND SUNSET. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DURING
THE EVENING...BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
PREVAILING TS. GUSTY WINDS...EXCEEDING 20KTS WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    52  59  34  53 /  30  20  10  10
SHOALS        53  58  35  54 /  30  20  10  10
VINEMONT      52  61  34  54 /  30  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  51  57  32  51 /  30  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   51  60  33  53 /  30  20  10  10
FORT PAYNE    51  60  33  52 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 232044
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
244 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT THE RAINFALL AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA IS CONTINUING TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IS ALSO LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. DRIER AIR
IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND RAINFALL OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00Z. SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW SPINS CLOSE TO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH.
THIS IS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR GA AND FL AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND RACES UP THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK VERY NICE AT THIS
TIME. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE I THINK NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING VIS TO LIFR AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...CIGS ARE IFR TO MVFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN PUSHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TIMED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD COMING ACROSS EAST MS TO APPROXIMATE RAIN ENDING TIMES
AT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE LIGHT RAINFALL BEHIND THIS
LINE...BUT CURRENT TRACK AS IT MOVING NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS. THERE
MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AS RAIN ENDS...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP AS WELL...MIGHT HAVE TO ADJUST VIS DOWN BELOW MVFR.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS ANB WHERE EASTERLY WINDS HAVE
PERSISTED TODAY...AND A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 10KTS. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. HOWEVER...KEPT MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED 12-15KT WINDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE VALUES COULD BE INCREASED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  64  34  54  32 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  67  37  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  56  65  39  56  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  64  38  58  34 /  10  10   0   0  10
CALERA      54  64  38  57  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  70  41  56  38 /  10  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  57  72  40  59  35 /  10  10   0  10  20
TROY        57  74  41  58  35 /  10  10   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 232044
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
244 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT THE RAINFALL AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA IS CONTINUING TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IS ALSO LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. DRIER AIR
IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND RAINFALL OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00Z. SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW SPINS CLOSE TO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH.
THIS IS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR GA AND FL AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND RACES UP THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK VERY NICE AT THIS
TIME. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE I THINK NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING VIS TO LIFR AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...CIGS ARE IFR TO MVFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN PUSHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TIMED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD COMING ACROSS EAST MS TO APPROXIMATE RAIN ENDING TIMES
AT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE LIGHT RAINFALL BEHIND THIS
LINE...BUT CURRENT TRACK AS IT MOVING NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS. THERE
MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AS RAIN ENDS...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP AS WELL...MIGHT HAVE TO ADJUST VIS DOWN BELOW MVFR.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS ANB WHERE EASTERLY WINDS HAVE
PERSISTED TODAY...AND A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 10KTS. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. HOWEVER...KEPT MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED 12-15KT WINDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE VALUES COULD BE INCREASED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  64  34  54  32 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  67  37  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  56  65  39  56  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  64  38  58  34 /  10  10   0   0  10
CALERA      54  64  38  57  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  70  41  56  38 /  10  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  57  72  40  59  35 /  10  10   0  10  20
TROY        57  74  41  58  35 /  10  10   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 231758 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SEEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
LAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NOT CERTAIN HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM FRONT
IS STILL TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ALONG THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE
BEFORE ANGLING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR EVERGREEN TOWARD MERIDIAN.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. TO THE NORTH...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S COOL TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ON RADAR...A
CONVECTIVE BAND...ARCHING FROM NEAR MERIDIAN SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO
PENSACOLA FL...IS MOVING TO THE NNE. DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOW 60S
BEHIND THIS BAND...AND THERE IS A WIND SHIFT FROM SSE TO SSW BEHIND
THE LINE. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR EFFECTIVE DRYLINE.

AS THIS CONVECTIVE BAND ROTATES TO THE NNE...IT WILL PUSH THE MOIST
AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
OCCUR IN BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND THE CONVECTIVE
BAND MOVING NNE INTO THE AREA. GENERAL TIMING...HAS THE CONVECTIVE
BAND NEAR MONTGOMERY BETWEEN 12-2PM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...HARD TO DETERMINE HOW
NARROW OR WIDE A CORRIDOR OF INSTABLITY WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

WILL BE WATCHING DEWPOINTS CLOSELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO ASSESS ANY CHANGES TO HAZARDS AND THE FORECAST.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING VIS TO LIFR AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...CIGS ARE IFR TO MVFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN PUSHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TIMED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD COMING ACROSS EAST MS TO APPROXIMATE RAIN ENDING TIMES
AT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE LIGHT RAINFALL BEHIND THIS
LINE...BUT CURRENT TRACK AS IT MOVING NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS. THERE
MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AS RAIN ENDS...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP AS WELL...MIGHT HAVE TO ADJUST VIS DOWN BELOW MVFR.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS ANB WHERE EASTERLY WINDS HAVE
PERSISTED TODAY...AND A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 10KTS. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. HOWEVER...KEPT MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED 12-15KT WINDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE VALUES COULD BE INCREASED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE OF THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO PUSH BACK THE
TIME OF SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE TO 10AM-6PM. THE MORE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME IN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THINK THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED IN THIS NON
TRANSITION AS OF YET. SO HAVE ADJUSTED TS POTENTIAL BY A FEW HOURS.
HAVE ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHILE AT IT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58












000
FXUS64 KBMX 231758 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SEEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
LAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NOT CERTAIN HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM FRONT
IS STILL TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ALONG THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE
BEFORE ANGLING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR EVERGREEN TOWARD MERIDIAN.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. TO THE NORTH...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S COOL TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ON RADAR...A
CONVECTIVE BAND...ARCHING FROM NEAR MERIDIAN SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO
PENSACOLA FL...IS MOVING TO THE NNE. DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOW 60S
BEHIND THIS BAND...AND THERE IS A WIND SHIFT FROM SSE TO SSW BEHIND
THE LINE. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR EFFECTIVE DRYLINE.

AS THIS CONVECTIVE BAND ROTATES TO THE NNE...IT WILL PUSH THE MOIST
AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
OCCUR IN BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND THE CONVECTIVE
BAND MOVING NNE INTO THE AREA. GENERAL TIMING...HAS THE CONVECTIVE
BAND NEAR MONTGOMERY BETWEEN 12-2PM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...HARD TO DETERMINE HOW
NARROW OR WIDE A CORRIDOR OF INSTABLITY WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

WILL BE WATCHING DEWPOINTS CLOSELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO ASSESS ANY CHANGES TO HAZARDS AND THE FORECAST.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING VIS TO LIFR AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...CIGS ARE IFR TO MVFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN PUSHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TIMED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD COMING ACROSS EAST MS TO APPROXIMATE RAIN ENDING TIMES
AT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE LIGHT RAINFALL BEHIND THIS
LINE...BUT CURRENT TRACK AS IT MOVING NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS. THERE
MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AS RAIN ENDS...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP AS WELL...MIGHT HAVE TO ADJUST VIS DOWN BELOW MVFR.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS ANB WHERE EASTERLY WINDS HAVE
PERSISTED TODAY...AND A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 10KTS. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. HOWEVER...KEPT MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED 12-15KT WINDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE VALUES COULD BE INCREASED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE OF THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO PUSH BACK THE
TIME OF SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE TO 10AM-6PM. THE MORE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME IN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THINK THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED IN THIS NON
TRANSITION AS OF YET. SO HAVE ADJUSTED TS POTENTIAL BY A FEW HOURS.
HAVE ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHILE AT IT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58












000
FXUS64 KBMX 231758 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SEEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
LAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NOT CERTAIN HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM FRONT
IS STILL TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ALONG THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE
BEFORE ANGLING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR EVERGREEN TOWARD MERIDIAN.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. TO THE NORTH...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S COOL TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ON RADAR...A
CONVECTIVE BAND...ARCHING FROM NEAR MERIDIAN SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO
PENSACOLA FL...IS MOVING TO THE NNE. DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOW 60S
BEHIND THIS BAND...AND THERE IS A WIND SHIFT FROM SSE TO SSW BEHIND
THE LINE. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR EFFECTIVE DRYLINE.

AS THIS CONVECTIVE BAND ROTATES TO THE NNE...IT WILL PUSH THE MOIST
AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
OCCUR IN BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND THE CONVECTIVE
BAND MOVING NNE INTO THE AREA. GENERAL TIMING...HAS THE CONVECTIVE
BAND NEAR MONTGOMERY BETWEEN 12-2PM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...HARD TO DETERMINE HOW
NARROW OR WIDE A CORRIDOR OF INSTABLITY WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

WILL BE WATCHING DEWPOINTS CLOSELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO ASSESS ANY CHANGES TO HAZARDS AND THE FORECAST.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING VIS TO LIFR AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...CIGS ARE IFR TO MVFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN PUSHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TIMED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD COMING ACROSS EAST MS TO APPROXIMATE RAIN ENDING TIMES
AT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE LIGHT RAINFALL BEHIND THIS
LINE...BUT CURRENT TRACK AS IT MOVING NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS. THERE
MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AS RAIN ENDS...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP AS WELL...MIGHT HAVE TO ADJUST VIS DOWN BELOW MVFR.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS ANB WHERE EASTERLY WINDS HAVE
PERSISTED TODAY...AND A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 10KTS. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. HOWEVER...KEPT MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED 12-15KT WINDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE VALUES COULD BE INCREASED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE OF THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO PUSH BACK THE
TIME OF SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE TO 10AM-6PM. THE MORE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME IN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THINK THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED IN THIS NON
TRANSITION AS OF YET. SO HAVE ADJUSTED TS POTENTIAL BY A FEW HOURS.
HAVE ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHILE AT IT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58












000
FXUS64 KBMX 231758 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SEEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
LAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NOT CERTAIN HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM FRONT
IS STILL TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ALONG THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE
BEFORE ANGLING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR EVERGREEN TOWARD MERIDIAN.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. TO THE NORTH...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S COOL TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ON RADAR...A
CONVECTIVE BAND...ARCHING FROM NEAR MERIDIAN SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO
PENSACOLA FL...IS MOVING TO THE NNE. DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOW 60S
BEHIND THIS BAND...AND THERE IS A WIND SHIFT FROM SSE TO SSW BEHIND
THE LINE. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR EFFECTIVE DRYLINE.

AS THIS CONVECTIVE BAND ROTATES TO THE NNE...IT WILL PUSH THE MOIST
AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
OCCUR IN BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND THE CONVECTIVE
BAND MOVING NNE INTO THE AREA. GENERAL TIMING...HAS THE CONVECTIVE
BAND NEAR MONTGOMERY BETWEEN 12-2PM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...HARD TO DETERMINE HOW
NARROW OR WIDE A CORRIDOR OF INSTABLITY WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

WILL BE WATCHING DEWPOINTS CLOSELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO ASSESS ANY CHANGES TO HAZARDS AND THE FORECAST.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING VIS TO LIFR AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...CIGS ARE IFR TO MVFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN PUSHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TIMED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD COMING ACROSS EAST MS TO APPROXIMATE RAIN ENDING TIMES
AT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE LIGHT RAINFALL BEHIND THIS
LINE...BUT CURRENT TRACK AS IT MOVING NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS. THERE
MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AS RAIN ENDS...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP AS WELL...MIGHT HAVE TO ADJUST VIS DOWN BELOW MVFR.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS ANB WHERE EASTERLY WINDS HAVE
PERSISTED TODAY...AND A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 10KTS. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. HOWEVER...KEPT MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED 12-15KT WINDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE VALUES COULD BE INCREASED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE OF THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO PUSH BACK THE
TIME OF SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE TO 10AM-6PM. THE MORE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME IN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THINK THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED IN THIS NON
TRANSITION AS OF YET. SO HAVE ADJUSTED TS POTENTIAL BY A FEW HOURS.
HAVE ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHILE AT IT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58












000
FXUS64 KMOB 231740
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...LINE OF STRONGEST STORMS EXTENDING FROM WILCOX COUNTY
SOUTHEAST TO SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF FLORIDA. AS UPPER
TROF BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY ORIENTED THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND BEGIN LIFTING OUT A LITTLE MORE
RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE
STORMS...AND MANY HAVE BEEN BROADLY ROTATING...BUT DEEP LAYER STRONG
SHEAR OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER IS ACTUALLY PROVING TO BE JUST A LITTLE
TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT LONG LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED
THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND BECOME MORE UNIFORM WITH
HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG (AND
POSSIBLE EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE) OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THE
SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA (ALTHOUGH
CONTINUES JUST TO THE EAST). THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RAIN CONTINUES BEHIND THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR (CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE DRY SLOT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. WIND ADVISORY HAS YET TO VERIFY...BUT OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM ARE INDICATING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THOSE ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST LATER TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY
WHICH IS VALID UNTIL 6 PM. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FCST MAX VALUES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE
GENERAL MIDDLE 70S FCST LOOKS TO BE OK FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S...AND MAX
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BUT ARE NOW DROPPING BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 60S.

12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

..SQUALL LINE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
BRINGS POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM COAST SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. COLDER CLOUDS/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING
DATA IS POSITIONED IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED...HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SOON BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. A
STRONGLY DEFINED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE NOON HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE ENHANCED ASCENT IN A DEVELOPING WARM
AND MOIST SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEER WITH H85
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE HODOGRAPHS BECOMING STRONGLY CURVED WITH
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2.
THIS SUPPORTS ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE TIMING OF THIS LINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AL AROUND
THE NOON HOUR AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE RAPID EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LINE...IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES. LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY AND AFTER 3 PM. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER LONGER AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S
INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 60S BEACH AREAS.

LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT SHOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER AND TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WINDY DAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD BY NOON MONDAY. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CRADLE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. A 150 KNOT
300 MB JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CARVE OUT
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE
NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO
EXPECT A COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. /22

AVIATION...
23.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MOB/BFM BETWEEN 17 AND
19Z AND PNS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AHEAD OF THE LINE...WINDS TURN SOUTH
AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CONVECTION. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION. /10

MARINE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS. HIGH SEAS
CONTINUE. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS AT 23.09Z INDICATE SEAS OF 8 FEET
AT BUOY 42012 AND 42040. AS SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST
TODAY...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INSTANCES OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY...VISIBILITY
REDUCING RAINS WILL BE COMMON IN STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  58  70  41  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   75  63  72  46  59 / 100  10  10  05  40
DESTIN      72  64  72  49  59 / 100  20  20  05  40
EVERGREEN   73  55  71  40  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
WAYNESBORO  74  51  66  38  59 / 100  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      72  53  68  39  58 / 100  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   73  61  74  42  59 / 100  20  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 231740
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...LINE OF STRONGEST STORMS EXTENDING FROM WILCOX COUNTY
SOUTHEAST TO SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF FLORIDA. AS UPPER
TROF BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY ORIENTED THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND BEGIN LIFTING OUT A LITTLE MORE
RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE
STORMS...AND MANY HAVE BEEN BROADLY ROTATING...BUT DEEP LAYER STRONG
SHEAR OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER IS ACTUALLY PROVING TO BE JUST A LITTLE
TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT LONG LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED
THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND BECOME MORE UNIFORM WITH
HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG (AND
POSSIBLE EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE) OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THE
SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA (ALTHOUGH
CONTINUES JUST TO THE EAST). THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RAIN CONTINUES BEHIND THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR (CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE DRY SLOT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. WIND ADVISORY HAS YET TO VERIFY...BUT OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM ARE INDICATING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THOSE ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST LATER TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY
WHICH IS VALID UNTIL 6 PM. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FCST MAX VALUES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE
GENERAL MIDDLE 70S FCST LOOKS TO BE OK FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S...AND MAX
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BUT ARE NOW DROPPING BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 60S.

12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

..SQUALL LINE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
BRINGS POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM COAST SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. COLDER CLOUDS/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING
DATA IS POSITIONED IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED...HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SOON BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. A
STRONGLY DEFINED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE NOON HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE ENHANCED ASCENT IN A DEVELOPING WARM
AND MOIST SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEER WITH H85
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE HODOGRAPHS BECOMING STRONGLY CURVED WITH
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2.
THIS SUPPORTS ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE TIMING OF THIS LINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AL AROUND
THE NOON HOUR AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE RAPID EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LINE...IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES. LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY AND AFTER 3 PM. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER LONGER AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S
INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 60S BEACH AREAS.

LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT SHOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER AND TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WINDY DAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD BY NOON MONDAY. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CRADLE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. A 150 KNOT
300 MB JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CARVE OUT
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE
NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO
EXPECT A COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. /22

AVIATION...
23.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MOB/BFM BETWEEN 17 AND
19Z AND PNS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AHEAD OF THE LINE...WINDS TURN SOUTH
AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CONVECTION. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION. /10

MARINE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS. HIGH SEAS
CONTINUE. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS AT 23.09Z INDICATE SEAS OF 8 FEET
AT BUOY 42012 AND 42040. AS SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST
TODAY...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INSTANCES OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY...VISIBILITY
REDUCING RAINS WILL BE COMMON IN STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  58  70  41  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   75  63  72  46  59 / 100  10  10  05  40
DESTIN      72  64  72  49  59 / 100  20  20  05  40
EVERGREEN   73  55  71  40  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
WAYNESBORO  74  51  66  38  59 / 100  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      72  53  68  39  58 / 100  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   73  61  74  42  59 / 100  20  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 231740
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...LINE OF STRONGEST STORMS EXTENDING FROM WILCOX COUNTY
SOUTHEAST TO SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF FLORIDA. AS UPPER
TROF BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY ORIENTED THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND BEGIN LIFTING OUT A LITTLE MORE
RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE
STORMS...AND MANY HAVE BEEN BROADLY ROTATING...BUT DEEP LAYER STRONG
SHEAR OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER IS ACTUALLY PROVING TO BE JUST A LITTLE
TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT LONG LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED
THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND BECOME MORE UNIFORM WITH
HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG (AND
POSSIBLE EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE) OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THE
SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA (ALTHOUGH
CONTINUES JUST TO THE EAST). THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RAIN CONTINUES BEHIND THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR (CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE DRY SLOT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. WIND ADVISORY HAS YET TO VERIFY...BUT OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM ARE INDICATING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THOSE ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST LATER TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY
WHICH IS VALID UNTIL 6 PM. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FCST MAX VALUES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE
GENERAL MIDDLE 70S FCST LOOKS TO BE OK FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S...AND MAX
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BUT ARE NOW DROPPING BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 60S.

12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

..SQUALL LINE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
BRINGS POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM COAST SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. COLDER CLOUDS/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING
DATA IS POSITIONED IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED...HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SOON BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. A
STRONGLY DEFINED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE NOON HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE ENHANCED ASCENT IN A DEVELOPING WARM
AND MOIST SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEER WITH H85
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE HODOGRAPHS BECOMING STRONGLY CURVED WITH
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2.
THIS SUPPORTS ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE TIMING OF THIS LINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AL AROUND
THE NOON HOUR AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE RAPID EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LINE...IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES. LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY AND AFTER 3 PM. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER LONGER AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S
INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 60S BEACH AREAS.

LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT SHOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER AND TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WINDY DAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD BY NOON MONDAY. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CRADLE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. A 150 KNOT
300 MB JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CARVE OUT
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE
NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO
EXPECT A COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. /22

AVIATION...
23.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MOB/BFM BETWEEN 17 AND
19Z AND PNS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AHEAD OF THE LINE...WINDS TURN SOUTH
AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CONVECTION. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION. /10

MARINE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS. HIGH SEAS
CONTINUE. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS AT 23.09Z INDICATE SEAS OF 8 FEET
AT BUOY 42012 AND 42040. AS SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST
TODAY...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INSTANCES OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY...VISIBILITY
REDUCING RAINS WILL BE COMMON IN STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  58  70  41  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   75  63  72  46  59 / 100  10  10  05  40
DESTIN      72  64  72  49  59 / 100  20  20  05  40
EVERGREEN   73  55  71  40  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
WAYNESBORO  74  51  66  38  59 / 100  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      72  53  68  39  58 / 100  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   73  61  74  42  59 / 100  20  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 231740
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...LINE OF STRONGEST STORMS EXTENDING FROM WILCOX COUNTY
SOUTHEAST TO SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF FLORIDA. AS UPPER
TROF BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY ORIENTED THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND BEGIN LIFTING OUT A LITTLE MORE
RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE
STORMS...AND MANY HAVE BEEN BROADLY ROTATING...BUT DEEP LAYER STRONG
SHEAR OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER IS ACTUALLY PROVING TO BE JUST A LITTLE
TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT LONG LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED
THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND BECOME MORE UNIFORM WITH
HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG (AND
POSSIBLE EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE) OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THE
SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA (ALTHOUGH
CONTINUES JUST TO THE EAST). THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RAIN CONTINUES BEHIND THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR (CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE DRY SLOT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. WIND ADVISORY HAS YET TO VERIFY...BUT OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM ARE INDICATING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THOSE ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST LATER TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY
WHICH IS VALID UNTIL 6 PM. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FCST MAX VALUES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE
GENERAL MIDDLE 70S FCST LOOKS TO BE OK FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S...AND MAX
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BUT ARE NOW DROPPING BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 60S.

12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

..SQUALL LINE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
BRINGS POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM COAST SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. COLDER CLOUDS/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING
DATA IS POSITIONED IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED...HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SOON BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. A
STRONGLY DEFINED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE NOON HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE ENHANCED ASCENT IN A DEVELOPING WARM
AND MOIST SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEER WITH H85
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE HODOGRAPHS BECOMING STRONGLY CURVED WITH
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2.
THIS SUPPORTS ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE TIMING OF THIS LINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AL AROUND
THE NOON HOUR AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE RAPID EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LINE...IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES. LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY AND AFTER 3 PM. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER LONGER AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S
INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 60S BEACH AREAS.

LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT SHOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER AND TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WINDY DAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD BY NOON MONDAY. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CRADLE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. A 150 KNOT
300 MB JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CARVE OUT
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE
NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO
EXPECT A COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. /22

AVIATION...
23.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MOB/BFM BETWEEN 17 AND
19Z AND PNS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AHEAD OF THE LINE...WINDS TURN SOUTH
AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CONVECTION. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION. /10

MARINE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS. HIGH SEAS
CONTINUE. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS AT 23.09Z INDICATE SEAS OF 8 FEET
AT BUOY 42012 AND 42040. AS SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST
TODAY...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INSTANCES OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY...VISIBILITY
REDUCING RAINS WILL BE COMMON IN STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  58  70  41  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   75  63  72  46  59 / 100  10  10  05  40
DESTIN      72  64  72  49  59 / 100  20  20  05  40
EVERGREEN   73  55  71  40  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
WAYNESBORO  74  51  66  38  59 / 100  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      72  53  68  39  58 / 100  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   73  61  74  42  59 / 100  20  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 231723 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1123 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1007 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE ARKLAMISS...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST ENTERING
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHWARD AND APPEARS TO HAVE JUST REACHED THE
FLORIDA...ALABAMA BORDER. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WARM FROM WILL
BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...HOWEVER AREA RADARS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXTENDING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MEANWHILE...TO THE SOUTH...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN EXTEND EASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER IF THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE THREAT...MODELS SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL...SO SEE NO REASON TO
GO AGAINST THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH PRETTY MUCH NO
INSTABILITY...UPDRAFTS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. MEANWHILE...EVEN
WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA...LITTLE MIXING WILL
OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERSION...SO THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE UNABLE TO
REACH THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MINIMAL AT
THIS POINT. WITH THAT SAID...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOCATION
OF THE WARM FRONT.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE WINDS...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH THE
KNOCK TREES DOWN...WITH THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS.

CONCERNING THE FORECAST...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS MAX
TEMPS AND HOURLIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING RAINFALL
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. UPDATES ARE OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPANDING TO THE EAST OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS AROUND SUNSET. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DURING
THE EVENING...BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
PREVAILING TS. GUSTY WINDS...EXCEEDING 20KTS WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 231723 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1123 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1007 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE ARKLAMISS...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST ENTERING
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHWARD AND APPEARS TO HAVE JUST REACHED THE
FLORIDA...ALABAMA BORDER. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WARM FROM WILL
BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...HOWEVER AREA RADARS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXTENDING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MEANWHILE...TO THE SOUTH...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN EXTEND EASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER IF THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE THREAT...MODELS SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL...SO SEE NO REASON TO
GO AGAINST THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH PRETTY MUCH NO
INSTABILITY...UPDRAFTS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. MEANWHILE...EVEN
WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA...LITTLE MIXING WILL
OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERSION...SO THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE UNABLE TO
REACH THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MINIMAL AT
THIS POINT. WITH THAT SAID...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOCATION
OF THE WARM FRONT.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE WINDS...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH THE
KNOCK TREES DOWN...WITH THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS.

CONCERNING THE FORECAST...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS MAX
TEMPS AND HOURLIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING RAINFALL
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. UPDATES ARE OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPANDING TO THE EAST OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS AROUND SUNSET. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DURING
THE EVENING...BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
PREVAILING TS. GUSTY WINDS...EXCEEDING 20KTS WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 231651 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1051 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SEEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
LAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NOT CERTAIN HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM FRONT
IS STILL TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ALONG THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE
BEFORE ANGLING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR EVERGREEN TOWARD MERIDIAN.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. TO THE NORTH...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S COOL TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ON RADAR...A
CONVECTIVE BAND...ARCHING FROM NEAR MERIDIAN SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO
PENSACOLA FL...IS MOVING TO THE NNE. DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOW 60S
BEHIND THIS BAND...AND THERE IS A WIND SHIFT FROM SSE TO SSW BEHIND
THE LINE. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR EFFECTIVE DRYLINE.

AS THIS CONVECTIVE BAND ROTATES TO THE NNE...IT WILL PUSH THE MOIST
AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
OCCUR IN BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND THE CONVECTIVE
BAND MOVING NNE INTO THE AREA. GENERAL TIMING...HAS THE CONVECTIVE
BAND NEAR MONTGOMERY BETWEEN 12-2PM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...HARD TO DETERMINE HOW
NARROW OR WIDE A CORRIDOR OF INSTABLITY WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

WILL BE WATCHING DEWPOINTS CLOSELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO ASSESS ANY CHANGES TO HAZARDS AND THE FORECAST.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE OF THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO PUSH BACK THE
TIME OF SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE TO 10AM-6PM. THE MORE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME IN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THINK THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED IN THIS NON
TRANSITION AS OF YET. SO HAVE ADJUSTED TS POTENTIAL BY A FEW HOURS.
HAVE ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHILE AT IT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH IFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS BY
18Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THEN STABILIZES AGAIN
AFTER 00Z WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. EASTERLY FLOW THRU 18Z WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE...WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE
GULF COAST. REMOVED TSTM CHANCES BEFORE 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES AND
EXPECT SCT SHRWS. DUE TO THE EASTERLY SFC FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY BELOW 1000 FEET UNTIL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY 18Z...THE
SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z AND REMAIN
IN THIS RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT ALL
TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FOR VCSH AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW KEPT CIGS IN THE MVFR
RANGE AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY CIGS COULD FALL BELOW
1000 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58








000
FXUS64 KBMX 231651 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1051 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SEEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
LAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NOT CERTAIN HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM FRONT
IS STILL TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ALONG THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE
BEFORE ANGLING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR EVERGREEN TOWARD MERIDIAN.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. TO THE NORTH...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S COOL TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ON RADAR...A
CONVECTIVE BAND...ARCHING FROM NEAR MERIDIAN SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO
PENSACOLA FL...IS MOVING TO THE NNE. DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOW 60S
BEHIND THIS BAND...AND THERE IS A WIND SHIFT FROM SSE TO SSW BEHIND
THE LINE. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR EFFECTIVE DRYLINE.

AS THIS CONVECTIVE BAND ROTATES TO THE NNE...IT WILL PUSH THE MOIST
AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
OCCUR IN BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND THE CONVECTIVE
BAND MOVING NNE INTO THE AREA. GENERAL TIMING...HAS THE CONVECTIVE
BAND NEAR MONTGOMERY BETWEEN 12-2PM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...HARD TO DETERMINE HOW
NARROW OR WIDE A CORRIDOR OF INSTABLITY WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

WILL BE WATCHING DEWPOINTS CLOSELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO ASSESS ANY CHANGES TO HAZARDS AND THE FORECAST.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE OF THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO PUSH BACK THE
TIME OF SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE TO 10AM-6PM. THE MORE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME IN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THINK THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED IN THIS NON
TRANSITION AS OF YET. SO HAVE ADJUSTED TS POTENTIAL BY A FEW HOURS.
HAVE ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHILE AT IT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH IFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS BY
18Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THEN STABILIZES AGAIN
AFTER 00Z WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. EASTERLY FLOW THRU 18Z WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE...WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE
GULF COAST. REMOVED TSTM CHANCES BEFORE 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES AND
EXPECT SCT SHRWS. DUE TO THE EASTERLY SFC FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY BELOW 1000 FEET UNTIL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY 18Z...THE
SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z AND REMAIN
IN THIS RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT ALL
TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FOR VCSH AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW KEPT CIGS IN THE MVFR
RANGE AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY CIGS COULD FALL BELOW
1000 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58









000
FXUS64 KHUN 231607 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1007 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE ARKLAMISS...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST ENTERING
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHWARD AND APPEARS TO HAVE JUST REACHED THE
FLORIDA...ALABAMA BORDER. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WARM FROM WILL
BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...HOWEVER AREA RADARS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXTENDING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MEANWHILE...TO THE SOUTH...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN EXTEND EASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER IF THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE THREAT...MODELS SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL...SO SEE NO REASON TO
GO AGAINST THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH PRETTY MUCH NO
INSTABILITY...UPDRAFTS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. MEANWHILE...EVEN
WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA...LITTLE MIXING WILL
OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERSION...SO THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE UNABLE TO
REACH THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MINIMAL AT
THIS POINT. WITH THAT SAID...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOCATION
OF THE WARM FRONT.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE WINDS...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH THE
KNOCK TREES DOWN...WITH THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS.

CONCERNING THE FORECAST...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS MAX
TEMPS AND HOURLIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING RAINFALL
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. UPDATES ARE OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CHALLENGING AVN FORECAST CONTINUES THIS MORNING GIVEN
THE XPCTED IMPACTS TO THE MAIN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24HR. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE ESE AND STRENGTHEN AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW...WITH PREDOM MVFR
STRATUS CIGS IN PLACE. RAIN/SHRA CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONCOMING
SFC LOW SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE BOARD HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HRS. A HIGHER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RA/EMBEDDED TSRA MAY EXISTS
STARTING AROUND 17-19Z AS A STRONGER WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION LIFTS NEWD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PCPN WILL
THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM SW-TO-NE AROUND 20-22Z AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD...ALTHOUGH AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER MAY REMAIN INTACT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 231607 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1007 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE ARKLAMISS...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST ENTERING
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHWARD AND APPEARS TO HAVE JUST REACHED THE
FLORIDA...ALABAMA BORDER. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WARM FROM WILL
BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...HOWEVER AREA RADARS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXTENDING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MEANWHILE...TO THE SOUTH...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN EXTEND EASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER IF THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE THREAT...MODELS SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL...SO SEE NO REASON TO
GO AGAINST THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH PRETTY MUCH NO
INSTABILITY...UPDRAFTS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. MEANWHILE...EVEN
WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA...LITTLE MIXING WILL
OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERSION...SO THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE UNABLE TO
REACH THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MINIMAL AT
THIS POINT. WITH THAT SAID...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOCATION
OF THE WARM FRONT.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE WINDS...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH THE
KNOCK TREES DOWN...WITH THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS.

CONCERNING THE FORECAST...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS MAX
TEMPS AND HOURLIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING RAINFALL
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. UPDATES ARE OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CHALLENGING AVN FORECAST CONTINUES THIS MORNING GIVEN
THE XPCTED IMPACTS TO THE MAIN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24HR. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE ESE AND STRENGTHEN AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW...WITH PREDOM MVFR
STRATUS CIGS IN PLACE. RAIN/SHRA CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONCOMING
SFC LOW SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE BOARD HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HRS. A HIGHER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RA/EMBEDDED TSRA MAY EXISTS
STARTING AROUND 17-19Z AS A STRONGER WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION LIFTS NEWD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PCPN WILL
THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM SW-TO-NE AROUND 20-22Z AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD...ALTHOUGH AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER MAY REMAIN INTACT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 231235 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE OF THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO PUSH BACK
THE TIME OF SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE TO 10AM-6PM. THE MORE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME IN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THINK THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED IN THIS NON
TRANSITION AS OF YET. SO HAVE ADJUSTED TS POTENTIAL BY A FEW
HOURS. HAVE ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHILE AT IT.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH IFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS BY
18Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THEN STABILIZES AGAIN
AFTER 00Z WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. EASTERLY FLOW THRU 18Z WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE...WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE
GULF COAST. REMOVED TSTM CHANCES BEFORE 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES AND
EXPECT SCT SHRWS. DUE TO THE EASTERLY SFC FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY BELOW 1000 FEET UNTIL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY 18Z...THE
SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z AND REMAIN
IN THIS RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT ALL
TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FOR VCSH AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW KEPT CIGS IN THE MVFR
RANGE AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY CIGS COULD FALL BELOW
1000 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58





000
FXUS64 KBMX 231235 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE OF THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO PUSH BACK
THE TIME OF SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE TO 10AM-6PM. THE MORE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME IN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THINK THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED IN THIS NON
TRANSITION AS OF YET. SO HAVE ADJUSTED TS POTENTIAL BY A FEW
HOURS. HAVE ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHILE AT IT.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH IFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS BY
18Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THEN STABILIZES AGAIN
AFTER 00Z WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. EASTERLY FLOW THRU 18Z WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE...WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE
GULF COAST. REMOVED TSTM CHANCES BEFORE 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES AND
EXPECT SCT SHRWS. DUE TO THE EASTERLY SFC FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY BELOW 1000 FEET UNTIL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY 18Z...THE
SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z AND REMAIN
IN THIS RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT ALL
TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FOR VCSH AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW KEPT CIGS IN THE MVFR
RANGE AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY CIGS COULD FALL BELOW
1000 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58






000
FXUS64 KHUN 231212 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
612 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
TOOK A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF FCST.

TWO AREAS OF PCPN WERE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/SERN US. THE FIRST AREA
WAS MAINLY OVER GA/SC/NRN FL(ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE).
THE OTHER AREA OF PCPN WAS OVER ERN TX/LA/SRN AR...DUE TO A MORE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ERN TX. IT WILL BE THIS 2ND AREA OF PCPN
THAT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 12Z THIS MRNG. THUS THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (UNTIL 12Z) WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT
FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SCT RAIN EAST OF I65.

FOR TODAY...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS MO DRAGGING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 18Z. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE CWA BY 00Z. ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT AN UPPER TROF
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT ALONG WITH EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY FOR
TODAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/UPPER
TROF MOVES NE OF THE AREA. THE THREAT OF SVR WX TODAY WILL BE LOW
OVER THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF SVR WX S AND E OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BUT OVERALL THE INSTABILITY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS
WEAK. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY/TONIGHT IS IF A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED. WITH THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUD COVER/PCPN TODAY...MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION FOR MOST OF TODAY.

MONDAY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA UNTIL 18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY WRAP ARND PCPN AND THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DURING THE MRNG.
OTHERWISE WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN FOR MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY MRNG/AFTN...DUE TO BETTER MIXING OF THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PERHAPS LESS CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE
MIDWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SERN COAST LINE.
THIS WILL STALL OUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CDFNT OVER FL. A SFC WAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE OLD CDFNT BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE SERN US. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE ATTM
THAT OUR CWA WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY PCPN DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
A DRY CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
THIS PERIOD DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

SATURDAY...A CDFNT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIMES NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS AND KEEP DRY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF
SHOWS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...CHALLENGING AVN FORECAST CONTINUES THIS MORNING GIVEN
THE XPCTED IMPACTS TO THE MAIN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24HR. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE ESE AND STRENGTHEN AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW...WITH PREDOM MVFR
STRATUS CIGS IN PLACE. RAIN/SHRA CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONCOMING
SFC LOW SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE BOARD HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HRS. A HIGHER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RA/EMBEDDED TSRA MAY EXISTS
STARTING AROUND 17-19Z AS A STRONGER WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION LIFTS NEWD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PCPN WILL
THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM SW-TO-NE AROUND 20-22Z AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD...ALTHOUGH AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER MAY REMAIN INTACT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 231212 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
612 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
TOOK A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF FCST.

TWO AREAS OF PCPN WERE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/SERN US. THE FIRST AREA
WAS MAINLY OVER GA/SC/NRN FL(ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE).
THE OTHER AREA OF PCPN WAS OVER ERN TX/LA/SRN AR...DUE TO A MORE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ERN TX. IT WILL BE THIS 2ND AREA OF PCPN
THAT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 12Z THIS MRNG. THUS THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (UNTIL 12Z) WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT
FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SCT RAIN EAST OF I65.

FOR TODAY...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS MO DRAGGING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 18Z. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE CWA BY 00Z. ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT AN UPPER TROF
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT ALONG WITH EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY FOR
TODAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/UPPER
TROF MOVES NE OF THE AREA. THE THREAT OF SVR WX TODAY WILL BE LOW
OVER THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF SVR WX S AND E OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BUT OVERALL THE INSTABILITY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS
WEAK. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY/TONIGHT IS IF A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED. WITH THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUD COVER/PCPN TODAY...MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION FOR MOST OF TODAY.

MONDAY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA UNTIL 18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY WRAP ARND PCPN AND THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DURING THE MRNG.
OTHERWISE WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN FOR MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY MRNG/AFTN...DUE TO BETTER MIXING OF THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PERHAPS LESS CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE
MIDWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SERN COAST LINE.
THIS WILL STALL OUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CDFNT OVER FL. A SFC WAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE OLD CDFNT BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE SERN US. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE ATTM
THAT OUR CWA WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY PCPN DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
A DRY CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
THIS PERIOD DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

SATURDAY...A CDFNT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIMES NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS AND KEEP DRY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF
SHOWS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...CHALLENGING AVN FORECAST CONTINUES THIS MORNING GIVEN
THE XPCTED IMPACTS TO THE MAIN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24HR. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE ESE AND STRENGTHEN AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW...WITH PREDOM MVFR
STRATUS CIGS IN PLACE. RAIN/SHRA CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONCOMING
SFC LOW SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE BOARD HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HRS. A HIGHER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RA/EMBEDDED TSRA MAY EXISTS
STARTING AROUND 17-19Z AS A STRONGER WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION LIFTS NEWD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PCPN WILL
THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM SW-TO-NE AROUND 20-22Z AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD...ALTHOUGH AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER MAY REMAIN INTACT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 231202
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
602 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH IFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS BY
18Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THEN STABILIZES AGAIN
AFTER 00Z WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. EASTERLY FLOW THRU 18Z WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE...WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE
GULF COAST. REMOVED TSTM CHANCES BEFORE 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES AND
EXPECT SCT SHRWS. DUE TO THE EASTERLY SFC FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY BELOW 1000 FEET UNTIL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY 18Z...THE
SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z AND REMAIN
IN THIS RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT ALL
TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FOR VCSH AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW KEPT CIGS IN THE MVFR
RANGE AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY CIGS COULD FALL BELOW
1000 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 231202
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
602 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH IFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS BY
18Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THEN STABILIZES AGAIN
AFTER 00Z WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. EASTERLY FLOW THRU 18Z WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE...WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE
GULF COAST. REMOVED TSTM CHANCES BEFORE 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES AND
EXPECT SCT SHRWS. DUE TO THE EASTERLY SFC FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY BELOW 1000 FEET UNTIL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY 18Z...THE
SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z AND REMAIN
IN THIS RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT ALL
TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FOR VCSH AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW KEPT CIGS IN THE MVFR
RANGE AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY CIGS COULD FALL BELOW
1000 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 231202
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
602 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH IFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS BY
18Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THEN STABILIZES AGAIN
AFTER 00Z WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. EASTERLY FLOW THRU 18Z WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE...WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE
GULF COAST. REMOVED TSTM CHANCES BEFORE 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES AND
EXPECT SCT SHRWS. DUE TO THE EASTERLY SFC FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY BELOW 1000 FEET UNTIL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY 18Z...THE
SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z AND REMAIN
IN THIS RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT ALL
TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FOR VCSH AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW KEPT CIGS IN THE MVFR
RANGE AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY CIGS COULD FALL BELOW
1000 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 231202
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
602 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH IFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS BY
18Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THEN STABILIZES AGAIN
AFTER 00Z WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. EASTERLY FLOW THRU 18Z WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE...WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE
GULF COAST. REMOVED TSTM CHANCES BEFORE 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES AND
EXPECT SCT SHRWS. DUE TO THE EASTERLY SFC FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY BELOW 1000 FEET UNTIL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY 18Z...THE
SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z AND REMAIN
IN THIS RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT ALL
TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FOR VCSH AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW KEPT CIGS IN THE MVFR
RANGE AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY CIGS COULD FALL BELOW
1000 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 231056
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES NOW...WITH TOI COMING IN AT IFR ALREADY.
LOOKS LIKE TOI MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/MVFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS SO WENT PREDOMINATE MVFR WITH A TEMPO OF IFR...BEFORE ALL
IFR AFTER 9Z. OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITION FORECAST DID NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO GET TO IFR CIGS EARLY ON IN THE
FORECAST AND STAYING THERE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS AS
TOI IS ALREADY IFR. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY VCTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IS A BETTER PLAY AT THE FORECAST SO WENT WITH THAT UNTIL THE
SECOND ROUND WORKS IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16





000
FXUS64 KBMX 231056
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES NOW...WITH TOI COMING IN AT IFR ALREADY.
LOOKS LIKE TOI MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/MVFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS SO WENT PREDOMINATE MVFR WITH A TEMPO OF IFR...BEFORE ALL
IFR AFTER 9Z. OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITION FORECAST DID NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO GET TO IFR CIGS EARLY ON IN THE
FORECAST AND STAYING THERE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS AS
TOI IS ALREADY IFR. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY VCTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IS A BETTER PLAY AT THE FORECAST SO WENT WITH THAT UNTIL THE
SECOND ROUND WORKS IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16





000
FXUS64 KBMX 231056
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES NOW...WITH TOI COMING IN AT IFR ALREADY.
LOOKS LIKE TOI MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/MVFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS SO WENT PREDOMINATE MVFR WITH A TEMPO OF IFR...BEFORE ALL
IFR AFTER 9Z. OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITION FORECAST DID NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO GET TO IFR CIGS EARLY ON IN THE
FORECAST AND STAYING THERE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS AS
TOI IS ALREADY IFR. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY VCTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IS A BETTER PLAY AT THE FORECAST SO WENT WITH THAT UNTIL THE
SECOND ROUND WORKS IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16





000
FXUS64 KBMX 231056
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES NOW...WITH TOI COMING IN AT IFR ALREADY.
LOOKS LIKE TOI MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/MVFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS SO WENT PREDOMINATE MVFR WITH A TEMPO OF IFR...BEFORE ALL
IFR AFTER 9Z. OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITION FORECAST DID NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO GET TO IFR CIGS EARLY ON IN THE
FORECAST AND STAYING THERE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS AS
TOI IS ALREADY IFR. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY VCTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IS A BETTER PLAY AT THE FORECAST SO WENT WITH THAT UNTIL THE
SECOND ROUND WORKS IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16





000
FXUS64 KMOB 231037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
437 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SQUALL LINE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
BRINGS POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM COAST SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. COLDER CLOUDS/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING
DATA IS POSITIONED IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED...HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SOON BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. A
STRONGLY DEFINED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE NOON HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE ENHANCED ASCENT IN A DEVELOPING WARM
AND MOIST SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEER WITH H85
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE HODOGRAPHS BECOMING STRONGLY CURVED WITH
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2.
THIS SUPPORTS ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE TIMING OF THIS LINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AL AROUND
THE NOON HOUR AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE RAPID EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LINE...IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES. LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY AND AFTER 3 PM. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER LONGER AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S
INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 60S BEACH AREAS.

LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT SHOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER AND TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WINDY DAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD BY NOON MONDAY. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CRADLE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. A 150 KNOT
300 MB JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CARVE OUT
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE
NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO
EXPECT A COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. /22

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
23.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MOB/BFM BETWEEN 17 AND
19Z AND PNS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AHEAD OF THE LINE...WINDS TURN SOUTH
AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CONVECTION. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION. /10

&&

.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS. HIGH SEAS
CONTINUE. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS AT 23.09Z INDICATE SEAS OF 8 FEET
AT BUOY 42012 AND 42040. AS SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST
TODAY...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INSTANCES OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY...VISIBILITY
REDUCING RAINS WILL BE COMMON IN STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  58  70  41  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   75  63  72  46  59 / 100  10  10  05  40
DESTIN      72  64  72  49  59 / 100  20  20  05  40
EVERGREEN   73  55  71  40  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
WAYNESBORO  74  51  66  38  59 / 100  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      72  53  68  39  58 / 100  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   73  61  74  42  59 / 100  20  10  05  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA
     ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 231037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
437 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SQUALL LINE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
BRINGS POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM COAST SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. COLDER CLOUDS/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING
DATA IS POSITIONED IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED...HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SOON BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. A
STRONGLY DEFINED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE NOON HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE ENHANCED ASCENT IN A DEVELOPING WARM
AND MOIST SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEER WITH H85
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE HODOGRAPHS BECOMING STRONGLY CURVED WITH
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2.
THIS SUPPORTS ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE TIMING OF THIS LINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AL AROUND
THE NOON HOUR AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE RAPID EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LINE...IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES. LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY AND AFTER 3 PM. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER LONGER AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S
INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 60S BEACH AREAS.

LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT SHOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER AND TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WINDY DAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD BY NOON MONDAY. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CRADLE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. A 150 KNOT
300 MB JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CARVE OUT
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE
NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO
EXPECT A COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. /22

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
23.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MOB/BFM BETWEEN 17 AND
19Z AND PNS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AHEAD OF THE LINE...WINDS TURN SOUTH
AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CONVECTION. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION. /10

&&

.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS. HIGH SEAS
CONTINUE. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS AT 23.09Z INDICATE SEAS OF 8 FEET
AT BUOY 42012 AND 42040. AS SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST
TODAY...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INSTANCES OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY...VISIBILITY
REDUCING RAINS WILL BE COMMON IN STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  58  70  41  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   75  63  72  46  59 / 100  10  10  05  40
DESTIN      72  64  72  49  59 / 100  20  20  05  40
EVERGREEN   73  55  71  40  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
WAYNESBORO  74  51  66  38  59 / 100  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      72  53  68  39  58 / 100  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   73  61  74  42  59 / 100  20  10  05  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA
     ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 231037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
437 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SQUALL LINE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
BRINGS POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM COAST SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. COLDER CLOUDS/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING
DATA IS POSITIONED IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED...HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SOON BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. A
STRONGLY DEFINED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE NOON HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE ENHANCED ASCENT IN A DEVELOPING WARM
AND MOIST SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEER WITH H85
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE HODOGRAPHS BECOMING STRONGLY CURVED WITH
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2.
THIS SUPPORTS ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE TIMING OF THIS LINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AL AROUND
THE NOON HOUR AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE RAPID EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LINE...IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES. LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY AND AFTER 3 PM. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER LONGER AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S
INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 60S BEACH AREAS.

LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT SHOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER AND TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WINDY DAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD BY NOON MONDAY. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CRADLE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. A 150 KNOT
300 MB JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CARVE OUT
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE
NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO
EXPECT A COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. /22

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
23.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MOB/BFM BETWEEN 17 AND
19Z AND PNS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AHEAD OF THE LINE...WINDS TURN SOUTH
AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CONVECTION. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION. /10

&&

.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS. HIGH SEAS
CONTINUE. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS AT 23.09Z INDICATE SEAS OF 8 FEET
AT BUOY 42012 AND 42040. AS SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST
TODAY...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INSTANCES OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY...VISIBILITY
REDUCING RAINS WILL BE COMMON IN STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  58  70  41  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   75  63  72  46  59 / 100  10  10  05  40
DESTIN      72  64  72  49  59 / 100  20  20  05  40
EVERGREEN   73  55  71  40  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
WAYNESBORO  74  51  66  38  59 / 100  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      72  53  68  39  58 / 100  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   73  61  74  42  59 / 100  20  10  05  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA
     ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 231037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
437 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SQUALL LINE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
BRINGS POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM COAST SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. COLDER CLOUDS/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING
DATA IS POSITIONED IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED...HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SOON BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. A
STRONGLY DEFINED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE NOON HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE ENHANCED ASCENT IN A DEVELOPING WARM
AND MOIST SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEER WITH H85
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE HODOGRAPHS BECOMING STRONGLY CURVED WITH
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2.
THIS SUPPORTS ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE TIMING OF THIS LINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AL AROUND
THE NOON HOUR AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE RAPID EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LINE...IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES. LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY AND AFTER 3 PM. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER LONGER AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S
INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 60S BEACH AREAS.

LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT SHOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER AND TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WINDY DAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD BY NOON MONDAY. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CRADLE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. A 150 KNOT
300 MB JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CARVE OUT
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE
NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO
EXPECT A COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. /22

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
23.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MOB/BFM BETWEEN 17 AND
19Z AND PNS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AHEAD OF THE LINE...WINDS TURN SOUTH
AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CONVECTION. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION. /10

&&

.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS. HIGH SEAS
CONTINUE. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS AT 23.09Z INDICATE SEAS OF 8 FEET
AT BUOY 42012 AND 42040. AS SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST
TODAY...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INSTANCES OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY...VISIBILITY
REDUCING RAINS WILL BE COMMON IN STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  58  70  41  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   75  63  72  46  59 / 100  10  10  05  40
DESTIN      72  64  72  49  59 / 100  20  20  05  40
EVERGREEN   73  55  71  40  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
WAYNESBORO  74  51  66  38  59 / 100  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      72  53  68  39  58 / 100  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   73  61  74  42  59 / 100  20  10  05  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA
     ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 230920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TOOK A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF FCST.

TWO AREAS OF PCPN WERE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/SERN US. THE FIRST AREA
WAS MAINLY OVER GA/SC/NRN FL(ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE).
THE OTHER AREA OF PCPN WAS OVER ERN TX/LA/SRN AR...DUE TO A MORE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ERN TX. IT WILL BE THIS 2ND AREA OF PCPN
THAT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 12Z THIS MRNG. THUS THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (UNTIL 12Z) WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT
FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SCT RAIN EAST OF I65.

FOR TODAY...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS MO DRAGGING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 18Z. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE CWA BY 00Z. ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT AN UPPER TROF
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT ALONG WITH EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY FOR
TODAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/UPPER
TROF MOVES NE OF THE AREA. THE THREAT OF SVR WX TODAY WILL BE LOW
OVER THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF SVR WX S AND E OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BUT OVERALL THE INSTABILITY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS
WEAK. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY/TONIGHT IS IF A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED. WITH THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUD COVER/PCPN TODAY...MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION FOR MOST OF TODAY.

MONDAY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA UNTIL 18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY WRAP ARND PCPN AND THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DURING THE MRNG.
OTHERWISE WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN FOR MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY MRNG/AFTN...DUE TO BETTER MIXING OF THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PERHAPS LESS CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE
MIDWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SERN COAST LINE.
THIS WILL STALL OUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CDFNT OVER FL. A SFC WAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE OLD CDFNT BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE SERN US. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE ATTM
THAT OUR CWA WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY PCPN DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
A DRY CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
THIS PERIOD DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

SATURDAY...A CDFNT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIMES NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS AND KEEP DRY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF
SHOWS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO ESE AND STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW...WITH CURRENT MVFR
STRATUS CIGS LOWERING TO 1500 FT BY 23/10Z AND TO 800 FT BY 13-15Z.
THREAT FOR SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
AT HSV BTWN 12-14Z WITH MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS BTWN 14-16Z. A
HIGHER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST BTWN 17/19Z
AND 20/22Z AS STRONGER WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS
NNEWD FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR PCPN WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM SW-TO-NE BTWN 20-22Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD...MVFR STRATUS LAYER WILL REMAIN INTACT THRU END OF TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A GUSTY SSW FLOW.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  52  58  34 / 100  30  20  10
SHOALS        64  53  57  35 / 100  30  20  10
VINEMONT      63  52  60  34 / 100  30  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  62  50  56  32 / 100  30  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   62  51  59  33 / 100  30  20  10
FORT PAYNE    62  51  59  33 / 100  30  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TOOK A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF FCST.

TWO AREAS OF PCPN WERE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/SERN US. THE FIRST AREA
WAS MAINLY OVER GA/SC/NRN FL(ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE).
THE OTHER AREA OF PCPN WAS OVER ERN TX/LA/SRN AR...DUE TO A MORE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ERN TX. IT WILL BE THIS 2ND AREA OF PCPN
THAT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 12Z THIS MRNG. THUS THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (UNTIL 12Z) WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT
FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SCT RAIN EAST OF I65.

FOR TODAY...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS MO DRAGGING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 18Z. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE CWA BY 00Z. ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT AN UPPER TROF
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT ALONG WITH EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY FOR
TODAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/UPPER
TROF MOVES NE OF THE AREA. THE THREAT OF SVR WX TODAY WILL BE LOW
OVER THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF SVR WX S AND E OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BUT OVERALL THE INSTABILITY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS
WEAK. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY/TONIGHT IS IF A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED. WITH THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUD COVER/PCPN TODAY...MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION FOR MOST OF TODAY.

MONDAY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA UNTIL 18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY WRAP ARND PCPN AND THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DURING THE MRNG.
OTHERWISE WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN FOR MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY MRNG/AFTN...DUE TO BETTER MIXING OF THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PERHAPS LESS CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE
MIDWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SERN COAST LINE.
THIS WILL STALL OUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CDFNT OVER FL. A SFC WAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE OLD CDFNT BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE SERN US. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE ATTM
THAT OUR CWA WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY PCPN DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
A DRY CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
THIS PERIOD DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

SATURDAY...A CDFNT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIMES NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS AND KEEP DRY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF
SHOWS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO ESE AND STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW...WITH CURRENT MVFR
STRATUS CIGS LOWERING TO 1500 FT BY 23/10Z AND TO 800 FT BY 13-15Z.
THREAT FOR SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
AT HSV BTWN 12-14Z WITH MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS BTWN 14-16Z. A
HIGHER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST BTWN 17/19Z
AND 20/22Z AS STRONGER WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS
NNEWD FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR PCPN WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM SW-TO-NE BTWN 20-22Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD...MVFR STRATUS LAYER WILL REMAIN INTACT THRU END OF TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A GUSTY SSW FLOW.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  52  58  34 / 100  30  20  10
SHOALS        64  53  57  35 / 100  30  20  10
VINEMONT      63  52  60  34 / 100  30  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  62  50  56  32 / 100  30  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   62  51  59  33 / 100  30  20  10
FORT PAYNE    62  51  59  33 / 100  30  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TOOK A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF FCST.

TWO AREAS OF PCPN WERE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/SERN US. THE FIRST AREA
WAS MAINLY OVER GA/SC/NRN FL(ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE).
THE OTHER AREA OF PCPN WAS OVER ERN TX/LA/SRN AR...DUE TO A MORE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ERN TX. IT WILL BE THIS 2ND AREA OF PCPN
THAT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 12Z THIS MRNG. THUS THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (UNTIL 12Z) WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT
FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SCT RAIN EAST OF I65.

FOR TODAY...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS MO DRAGGING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 18Z. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE CWA BY 00Z. ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT AN UPPER TROF
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT ALONG WITH EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY FOR
TODAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/UPPER
TROF MOVES NE OF THE AREA. THE THREAT OF SVR WX TODAY WILL BE LOW
OVER THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF SVR WX S AND E OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BUT OVERALL THE INSTABILITY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS
WEAK. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY/TONIGHT IS IF A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED. WITH THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUD COVER/PCPN TODAY...MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION FOR MOST OF TODAY.

MONDAY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA UNTIL 18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY WRAP ARND PCPN AND THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DURING THE MRNG.
OTHERWISE WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN FOR MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY MRNG/AFTN...DUE TO BETTER MIXING OF THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PERHAPS LESS CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE
MIDWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SERN COAST LINE.
THIS WILL STALL OUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CDFNT OVER FL. A SFC WAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE OLD CDFNT BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE SERN US. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE ATTM
THAT OUR CWA WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY PCPN DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
A DRY CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
THIS PERIOD DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

SATURDAY...A CDFNT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIMES NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS AND KEEP DRY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF
SHOWS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO ESE AND STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW...WITH CURRENT MVFR
STRATUS CIGS LOWERING TO 1500 FT BY 23/10Z AND TO 800 FT BY 13-15Z.
THREAT FOR SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
AT HSV BTWN 12-14Z WITH MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS BTWN 14-16Z. A
HIGHER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST BTWN 17/19Z
AND 20/22Z AS STRONGER WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS
NNEWD FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR PCPN WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM SW-TO-NE BTWN 20-22Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD...MVFR STRATUS LAYER WILL REMAIN INTACT THRU END OF TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A GUSTY SSW FLOW.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  52  58  34 / 100  30  20  10
SHOALS        64  53  57  35 / 100  30  20  10
VINEMONT      63  52  60  34 / 100  30  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  62  50  56  32 / 100  30  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   62  51  59  33 / 100  30  20  10
FORT PAYNE    62  51  59  33 / 100  30  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TOOK A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF FCST.

TWO AREAS OF PCPN WERE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/SERN US. THE FIRST AREA
WAS MAINLY OVER GA/SC/NRN FL(ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE).
THE OTHER AREA OF PCPN WAS OVER ERN TX/LA/SRN AR...DUE TO A MORE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ERN TX. IT WILL BE THIS 2ND AREA OF PCPN
THAT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 12Z THIS MRNG. THUS THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (UNTIL 12Z) WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT
FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SCT RAIN EAST OF I65.

FOR TODAY...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS MO DRAGGING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 18Z. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE CWA BY 00Z. ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT AN UPPER TROF
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT ALONG WITH EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY FOR
TODAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/UPPER
TROF MOVES NE OF THE AREA. THE THREAT OF SVR WX TODAY WILL BE LOW
OVER THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF SVR WX S AND E OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BUT OVERALL THE INSTABILITY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS
WEAK. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY/TONIGHT IS IF A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED. WITH THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUD COVER/PCPN TODAY...MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION FOR MOST OF TODAY.

MONDAY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA UNTIL 18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY WRAP ARND PCPN AND THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DURING THE MRNG.
OTHERWISE WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN FOR MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY MRNG/AFTN...DUE TO BETTER MIXING OF THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PERHAPS LESS CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE
MIDWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SERN COAST LINE.
THIS WILL STALL OUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CDFNT OVER FL. A SFC WAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE OLD CDFNT BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE SERN US. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE ATTM
THAT OUR CWA WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY PCPN DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
A DRY CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
THIS PERIOD DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

SATURDAY...A CDFNT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIMES NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS AND KEEP DRY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF
SHOWS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO ESE AND STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW...WITH CURRENT MVFR
STRATUS CIGS LOWERING TO 1500 FT BY 23/10Z AND TO 800 FT BY 13-15Z.
THREAT FOR SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
AT HSV BTWN 12-14Z WITH MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS BTWN 14-16Z. A
HIGHER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST BTWN 17/19Z
AND 20/22Z AS STRONGER WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS
NNEWD FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR PCPN WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM SW-TO-NE BTWN 20-22Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD...MVFR STRATUS LAYER WILL REMAIN INTACT THRU END OF TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A GUSTY SSW FLOW.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  52  58  34 / 100  30  20  10
SHOALS        64  53  57  35 / 100  30  20  10
VINEMONT      63  52  60  34 / 100  30  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  62  50  56  32 / 100  30  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   62  51  59  33 / 100  30  20  10
FORT PAYNE    62  51  59  33 / 100  30  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230604
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1204 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 959 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION...WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED THIS EVENING -- AND PRIMARILY TO INCREASE
LOW TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE DATA AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST
THAT A LOWER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS, AN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND,
AND POSITIVE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
NEGLIGIBLE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AROUND 06Z...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH 12Z. OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST WAS
INCREASED BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID- LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN BY 12Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOCUS HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION. THUS...HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN RESERVED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND MAINLY FOR THE PERIOD FROM 09-12Z.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO ESE AND STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW...WITH CURRENT MVFR
STRATUS CIGS LOWERING TO 1500 FT BY 23/10Z AND TO 800 FT BY 13-15Z.
THREAT FOR SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
AT HSV BTWN 12-14Z WITH MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS BTWN 14-16Z. A
HIGHER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST BTWN 17/19Z
AND 20/22Z AS STRONGER WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS
NNEWD FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR PCPN WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM SW-TO-NE BTWN 20-22Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD...MVFR STRATUS LAYER WILL REMAIN INTACT THRU END OF TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A GUSTY SSW FLOW.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230604
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1204 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 959 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION...WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED THIS EVENING -- AND PRIMARILY TO INCREASE
LOW TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE DATA AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST
THAT A LOWER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS, AN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND,
AND POSITIVE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
NEGLIGIBLE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AROUND 06Z...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH 12Z. OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST WAS
INCREASED BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID- LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN BY 12Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOCUS HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION. THUS...HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN RESERVED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND MAINLY FOR THE PERIOD FROM 09-12Z.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO ESE AND STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW...WITH CURRENT MVFR
STRATUS CIGS LOWERING TO 1500 FT BY 23/10Z AND TO 800 FT BY 13-15Z.
THREAT FOR SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
AT HSV BTWN 12-14Z WITH MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS BTWN 14-16Z. A
HIGHER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST BTWN 17/19Z
AND 20/22Z AS STRONGER WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS
NNEWD FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR PCPN WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM SW-TO-NE BTWN 20-22Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD...MVFR STRATUS LAYER WILL REMAIN INTACT THRU END OF TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A GUSTY SSW FLOW.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 230543
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG. THE MODEL
SUITE CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKS VERY GOOD TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST IS KEEPING SURFACE WINDS EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. IT APPEARS
THE INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON TOP. ADDITIONALLY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LIFT WILL INCREASE
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT...DROPPING
INTO THE DRIER AIR. THEREFORE...HELD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY
WITH AND INCREASE SOUTH LATE. MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE HOURLY
TRENDS AND RAIN CHANCES BUT THE FORECAST WAS GENERALLY ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL ADVERTISING ABOUT THE SAME
SCENARIOS THAT DIFFER AMONGST SOLUTIONS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL RAIN AND THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT
WHAT ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
TEXAS...BECOMING NEUTRALLY TILTED. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY SWING
NEGATIVE AND ROTATE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE INVERSION AND STABLE AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT A WINDOW REMAINS WHERE SOME OF THE
UNSTABLE AIR ENTERS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS BEFORE A HUGE DRY SLOT
MOVES OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING TORNADOES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS...WITH WINDS HANGING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR
SO LONG...MOST OF THE TIME THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
PUSH FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD FOR A SEVERE THREAT. BUT THIS IS A VERY
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PULL THE UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD...PROVIDING A RATHER SMALL WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THIS MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE REALLY DO NOT SEE A TREND UNTIL
THE MORNING HOURS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE UNSTABLE AIR GETS. SO BE
PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND
IN THE EVENT OF A WATCH OR WARNING...BE PREPARED FOR QUICK ACTION.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES NOW...WITH TOI COMING IN AT IFR ALREADY.
LOOKS LIKE TOI MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/MVFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS SO WENT PREDOMINATE MVFR WITH A TEMPO OF IFR...BEFORE ALL
IFR AFTER 9Z. OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITION FORECAST DID NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO GET TO IFR CIGS EARLY ON IN THE
FORECAST AND STAYING THERE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS AS
TOI IS ALREADY IFR. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY VCTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IS A BETTER PLAY AT THE FORECAST SO WENT WITH THAT UNTIL THE
SECOND ROUND WORKS IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  62  53  62  35 /  70 100  20  10  10
ANNISTON    53  64  55  65  37 /  80 100  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  56  66  56  63  38 /  80 100  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  56  68  54  63  38 /  70 100  10  10  10
CALERA      55  66  55  63  39 /  80 100  10  10  10
AUBURN      53  65  58  68  41 / 100 100  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  55  70  56  69  39 / 100 100  10  10  10
TROY        56  73  58  71  41 / 100 100  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 230543
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG. THE MODEL
SUITE CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKS VERY GOOD TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST IS KEEPING SURFACE WINDS EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. IT APPEARS
THE INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON TOP. ADDITIONALLY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LIFT WILL INCREASE
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT...DROPPING
INTO THE DRIER AIR. THEREFORE...HELD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY
WITH AND INCREASE SOUTH LATE. MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE HOURLY
TRENDS AND RAIN CHANCES BUT THE FORECAST WAS GENERALLY ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL ADVERTISING ABOUT THE SAME
SCENARIOS THAT DIFFER AMONGST SOLUTIONS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL RAIN AND THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT
WHAT ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
TEXAS...BECOMING NEUTRALLY TILTED. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY SWING
NEGATIVE AND ROTATE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE INVERSION AND STABLE AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT A WINDOW REMAINS WHERE SOME OF THE
UNSTABLE AIR ENTERS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS BEFORE A HUGE DRY SLOT
MOVES OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING TORNADOES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS...WITH WINDS HANGING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR
SO LONG...MOST OF THE TIME THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
PUSH FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD FOR A SEVERE THREAT. BUT THIS IS A VERY
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PULL THE UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD...PROVIDING A RATHER SMALL WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THIS MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE REALLY DO NOT SEE A TREND UNTIL
THE MORNING HOURS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE UNSTABLE AIR GETS. SO BE
PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND
IN THE EVENT OF A WATCH OR WARNING...BE PREPARED FOR QUICK ACTION.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES NOW...WITH TOI COMING IN AT IFR ALREADY.
LOOKS LIKE TOI MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/MVFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS SO WENT PREDOMINATE MVFR WITH A TEMPO OF IFR...BEFORE ALL
IFR AFTER 9Z. OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITION FORECAST DID NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO GET TO IFR CIGS EARLY ON IN THE
FORECAST AND STAYING THERE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS AS
TOI IS ALREADY IFR. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY VCTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IS A BETTER PLAY AT THE FORECAST SO WENT WITH THAT UNTIL THE
SECOND ROUND WORKS IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  62  53  62  35 /  70 100  20  10  10
ANNISTON    53  64  55  65  37 /  80 100  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  56  66  56  63  38 /  80 100  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  56  68  54  63  38 /  70 100  10  10  10
CALERA      55  66  55  63  39 /  80 100  10  10  10
AUBURN      53  65  58  68  41 / 100 100  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  55  70  56  69  39 / 100 100  10  10  10
TROY        56  73  58  71  41 / 100 100  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 230542 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1142 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...AFTER WAITING A FAIR AMOUNT OF TIME FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN
TO DEVELOP MORE EXPANSIVELY OVER THE AREA...HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE NOW
AND DELAY THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL LATE IN THE
NIGHT.  NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOLLOW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10-12 KNOTS BECOME SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /29

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
A MIX OF MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY LIFR
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 03Z
WITH THEN LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE BY 18-20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SQUALL LINE. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST
NEAR 14-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY BY NEAR 12Z SUNDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST
BY 18-20Z. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...STILL APPEARS TO BE BE
A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BACKED OFF OF THE ENHANCED THREAT OVERALL...BUT WE STILL FEEL LOCALLY
THAT THERE COULD BE A SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL ALABAMA
BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN OR
ELEVATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND
BECOMING MORE SFC BASED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. MOST OF THIS STRONGER SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3AM-6AM SUNDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THE MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAR INLAND THE BETTER INSTABILITIES MAKE IT...BUT WE FEEL PRETTY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR TO WARRANT MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB JET OF 50
TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF EJECTS ENERGY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. THIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROF
WILL HELP PRODUCE AMPLE VERTICAL LIFT.

BY AROUND 12Z (6 AM SUNDAY) WE EXPECT A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS TO BE
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES...MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
AL BY AROUND 10 AM...THEN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NOON TO 1 PM. BY AROUND 2
PM...MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILES...POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE
ITSELF. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...40 TO 50 MPH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT AND CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.  1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...UP TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT
FROM HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MINOR...TEMPORARY URBAN FLOODING.

12/DS

[MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT]...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL START MOVING IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND WITH
THE 850 MB TROUGH CLEARING US BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE LOW 70S IN THE
EAST...AND MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF.
LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S COASTAL. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 77/BD

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CRESTVIEW TO PENSACOLA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...AND LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
77/BD

MARINE...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WESTWARD TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. SEAS WILL TREND MUCH HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A GALE
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GULF COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. 12/DS

AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
STEADILY LOWERED...TO MVFR. BECOMING IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE...THEN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
ABOUT 23/09Z. BETWEEN 23/12Z-23/18Z A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  58  67  40 /  90  90  05  10  05
PENSACOLA   62  73  62  71  43 /  90  90  20  10  05
DESTIN      64  73  64  72  52 /  90  90  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   58  73  58  70  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  58  77  52  65  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
CAMDEN      56  74  54  68  37 /  90  90  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  73  61  71  41 /  90  90  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 230542 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1142 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...AFTER WAITING A FAIR AMOUNT OF TIME FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN
TO DEVELOP MORE EXPANSIVELY OVER THE AREA...HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE NOW
AND DELAY THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL LATE IN THE
NIGHT.  NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOLLOW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10-12 KNOTS BECOME SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /29

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
A MIX OF MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY LIFR
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 03Z
WITH THEN LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE BY 18-20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SQUALL LINE. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST
NEAR 14-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY BY NEAR 12Z SUNDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST
BY 18-20Z. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...STILL APPEARS TO BE BE
A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BACKED OFF OF THE ENHANCED THREAT OVERALL...BUT WE STILL FEEL LOCALLY
THAT THERE COULD BE A SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL ALABAMA
BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN OR
ELEVATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND
BECOMING MORE SFC BASED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. MOST OF THIS STRONGER SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3AM-6AM SUNDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THE MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAR INLAND THE BETTER INSTABILITIES MAKE IT...BUT WE FEEL PRETTY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR TO WARRANT MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB JET OF 50
TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF EJECTS ENERGY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. THIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROF
WILL HELP PRODUCE AMPLE VERTICAL LIFT.

BY AROUND 12Z (6 AM SUNDAY) WE EXPECT A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS TO BE
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES...MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
AL BY AROUND 10 AM...THEN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NOON TO 1 PM. BY AROUND 2
PM...MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILES...POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE
ITSELF. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...40 TO 50 MPH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT AND CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.  1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...UP TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT
FROM HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MINOR...TEMPORARY URBAN FLOODING.

12/DS

[MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT]...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL START MOVING IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND WITH
THE 850 MB TROUGH CLEARING US BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE LOW 70S IN THE
EAST...AND MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF.
LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S COASTAL. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 77/BD

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CRESTVIEW TO PENSACOLA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...AND LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
77/BD

MARINE...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WESTWARD TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. SEAS WILL TREND MUCH HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A GALE
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GULF COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. 12/DS

AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
STEADILY LOWERED...TO MVFR. BECOMING IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE...THEN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
ABOUT 23/09Z. BETWEEN 23/12Z-23/18Z A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  58  67  40 /  90  90  05  10  05
PENSACOLA   62  73  62  71  43 /  90  90  20  10  05
DESTIN      64  73  64  72  52 /  90  90  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   58  73  58  70  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  58  77  52  65  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
CAMDEN      56  74  54  68  37 /  90  90  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  73  61  71  41 /  90  90  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 230411
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1011 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG. THE MODEL
SUITE CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKS VERY GOOD TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST IS KEEPING SURFACE WINDS EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. IT APPEARS
THE INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON TOP. ADDITIONALLY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LIFT WILL INCREASE
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT...DROPPING
INTO THE DRIER AIR. THEREFORE...HELD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY
WITH AND INCREASE SOUTH LATE. MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE HOURLY
TRENDS AND RAIN CHANCES BUT THE FORECAST WAS GENERALLY ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL ADVERTISING ABOUT THE SAME
SCENARIOS THAT DIFFER AMONGST SOLUTIONS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL RAIN AND THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT
WHAT ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
TEXAS...BECOMING NEUTRALLY TILTED. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY SWING
NEGATIVE AND ROTATE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE INVERSION AND STABLE AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT A WINDOW REMAINS WHERE SOME OF THE
UNSTABLE AIR ENTERS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS BEFORE A HUGE DRY SLOT
MOVES OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING TORNADOES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS...WITH WINDS HANGING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR
SO LONG...MOST OF THE TIME THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
PUSH FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD FOR A SEVERE THREAT. BUT THIS IS A VERY
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PULL THE UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD...PROVIDING A RATHER SMALL WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THIS MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE REALLY DO NOT SEE A TREND UNTIL
THE MORNING HOURS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE UNSTABLE AIR GETS. SO BE
PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND
IN THE EVENT OF A WATCH OR WARNING...BE PREPARED FOR QUICK ACTION.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY 02 TO 03Z. REALLY LOOKS LIKE
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY IMPACT TCL...BHM AND EET. WITH
THE LITTLE BIT QUICKER CLEARING MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A PERIOD
IN WHICH IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE AT
THUNDERSTORMS. VCTS MAY HAVE WORKED BETTER FOR THIS SET BUT
ALREADY HAD IN TSRA SO LEFT IT IN FOR PLANNING PURPOSES AND WILL
MAKE THOSE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 304 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOMORROW AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 60S AND ALSO SOME LOWER 70S OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS A WEDGE
AFFECT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS IN QUESTION. WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN EASTERLY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND TRY TO LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LINGERING WEDGE
AFFECT...SHOULD HELP SLOW/LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AND LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...PERHAPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM...ITS
DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FURTHER
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT WORDING IN THE
HWO AS IS.

AS FAR AS THE GENERAL SCENARIO GOES...LOOK FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT. THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL MESO-SCALE
FEATURES PLAYING A ROLE AS WELL INCLUDING A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL ALL HINGE ON INSTABILITY...AS THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH SHEAR...AND THAT WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH RAIN
CHANCES DROPPING VERY RAPIDLY AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES PAST.

MIDWEEK...ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING AND GOING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAK FEATURE
THAT MIGHT TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
DROPPING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. READINGS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  62  53  62  35 /  70 100  20  10  10
ANNISTON    53  64  55  65  37 /  80 100  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  56  66  56  63  38 /  80 100  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  56  68  54  63  38 /  70 100  10  10  10
CALERA      55  66  55  63  39 /  80 100  10  10  10
AUBURN      53  65  58  68  41 / 100 100  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  55  70  56  69  39 / 100 100  10  10  10
TROY        56  73  58  71  41 / 100 100  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 230411
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1011 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG. THE MODEL
SUITE CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKS VERY GOOD TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST IS KEEPING SURFACE WINDS EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. IT APPEARS
THE INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON TOP. ADDITIONALLY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LIFT WILL INCREASE
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT...DROPPING
INTO THE DRIER AIR. THEREFORE...HELD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY
WITH AND INCREASE SOUTH LATE. MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE HOURLY
TRENDS AND RAIN CHANCES BUT THE FORECAST WAS GENERALLY ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL ADVERTISING ABOUT THE SAME
SCENARIOS THAT DIFFER AMONGST SOLUTIONS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL RAIN AND THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT
WHAT ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
TEXAS...BECOMING NEUTRALLY TILTED. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY SWING
NEGATIVE AND ROTATE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE INVERSION AND STABLE AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT A WINDOW REMAINS WHERE SOME OF THE
UNSTABLE AIR ENTERS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS BEFORE A HUGE DRY SLOT
MOVES OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING TORNADOES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS...WITH WINDS HANGING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR
SO LONG...MOST OF THE TIME THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
PUSH FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD FOR A SEVERE THREAT. BUT THIS IS A VERY
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PULL THE UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD...PROVIDING A RATHER SMALL WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THIS MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE REALLY DO NOT SEE A TREND UNTIL
THE MORNING HOURS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE UNSTABLE AIR GETS. SO BE
PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND
IN THE EVENT OF A WATCH OR WARNING...BE PREPARED FOR QUICK ACTION.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY 02 TO 03Z. REALLY LOOKS LIKE
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY IMPACT TCL...BHM AND EET. WITH
THE LITTLE BIT QUICKER CLEARING MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A PERIOD
IN WHICH IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE AT
THUNDERSTORMS. VCTS MAY HAVE WORKED BETTER FOR THIS SET BUT
ALREADY HAD IN TSRA SO LEFT IT IN FOR PLANNING PURPOSES AND WILL
MAKE THOSE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 304 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOMORROW AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 60S AND ALSO SOME LOWER 70S OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS A WEDGE
AFFECT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS IN QUESTION. WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN EASTERLY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND TRY TO LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LINGERING WEDGE
AFFECT...SHOULD HELP SLOW/LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AND LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...PERHAPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM...ITS
DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FURTHER
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT WORDING IN THE
HWO AS IS.

AS FAR AS THE GENERAL SCENARIO GOES...LOOK FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT. THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL MESO-SCALE
FEATURES PLAYING A ROLE AS WELL INCLUDING A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL ALL HINGE ON INSTABILITY...AS THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH SHEAR...AND THAT WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH RAIN
CHANCES DROPPING VERY RAPIDLY AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES PAST.

MIDWEEK...ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING AND GOING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAK FEATURE
THAT MIGHT TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
DROPPING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. READINGS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  62  53  62  35 /  70 100  20  10  10
ANNISTON    53  64  55  65  37 /  80 100  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  56  66  56  63  38 /  80 100  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  56  68  54  63  38 /  70 100  10  10  10
CALERA      55  66  55  63  39 /  80 100  10  10  10
AUBURN      53  65  58  68  41 / 100 100  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  55  70  56  69  39 / 100 100  10  10  10
TROY        56  73  58  71  41 / 100 100  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 230411
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1011 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG. THE MODEL
SUITE CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKS VERY GOOD TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST IS KEEPING SURFACE WINDS EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. IT APPEARS
THE INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON TOP. ADDITIONALLY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LIFT WILL INCREASE
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT...DROPPING
INTO THE DRIER AIR. THEREFORE...HELD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY
WITH AND INCREASE SOUTH LATE. MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE HOURLY
TRENDS AND RAIN CHANCES BUT THE FORECAST WAS GENERALLY ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL ADVERTISING ABOUT THE SAME
SCENARIOS THAT DIFFER AMONGST SOLUTIONS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL RAIN AND THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT
WHAT ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
TEXAS...BECOMING NEUTRALLY TILTED. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY SWING
NEGATIVE AND ROTATE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE INVERSION AND STABLE AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT A WINDOW REMAINS WHERE SOME OF THE
UNSTABLE AIR ENTERS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS BEFORE A HUGE DRY SLOT
MOVES OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING TORNADOES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS...WITH WINDS HANGING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR
SO LONG...MOST OF THE TIME THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
PUSH FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD FOR A SEVERE THREAT. BUT THIS IS A VERY
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PULL THE UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD...PROVIDING A RATHER SMALL WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THIS MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE REALLY DO NOT SEE A TREND UNTIL
THE MORNING HOURS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE UNSTABLE AIR GETS. SO BE
PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND
IN THE EVENT OF A WATCH OR WARNING...BE PREPARED FOR QUICK ACTION.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY 02 TO 03Z. REALLY LOOKS LIKE
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY IMPACT TCL...BHM AND EET. WITH
THE LITTLE BIT QUICKER CLEARING MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A PERIOD
IN WHICH IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE AT
THUNDERSTORMS. VCTS MAY HAVE WORKED BETTER FOR THIS SET BUT
ALREADY HAD IN TSRA SO LEFT IT IN FOR PLANNING PURPOSES AND WILL
MAKE THOSE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 304 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOMORROW AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 60S AND ALSO SOME LOWER 70S OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS A WEDGE
AFFECT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS IN QUESTION. WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN EASTERLY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND TRY TO LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LINGERING WEDGE
AFFECT...SHOULD HELP SLOW/LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AND LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...PERHAPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM...ITS
DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FURTHER
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT WORDING IN THE
HWO AS IS.

AS FAR AS THE GENERAL SCENARIO GOES...LOOK FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT. THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL MESO-SCALE
FEATURES PLAYING A ROLE AS WELL INCLUDING A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL ALL HINGE ON INSTABILITY...AS THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH SHEAR...AND THAT WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH RAIN
CHANCES DROPPING VERY RAPIDLY AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES PAST.

MIDWEEK...ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING AND GOING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAK FEATURE
THAT MIGHT TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
DROPPING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. READINGS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  62  53  62  35 /  70 100  20  10  10
ANNISTON    53  64  55  65  37 /  80 100  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  56  66  56  63  38 /  80 100  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  56  68  54  63  38 /  70 100  10  10  10
CALERA      55  66  55  63  39 /  80 100  10  10  10
AUBURN      53  65  58  68  41 / 100 100  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  55  70  56  69  39 / 100 100  10  10  10
TROY        56  73  58  71  41 / 100 100  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 230411
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1011 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG. THE MODEL
SUITE CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKS VERY GOOD TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST IS KEEPING SURFACE WINDS EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. IT APPEARS
THE INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON TOP. ADDITIONALLY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LIFT WILL INCREASE
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT...DROPPING
INTO THE DRIER AIR. THEREFORE...HELD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY
WITH AND INCREASE SOUTH LATE. MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE HOURLY
TRENDS AND RAIN CHANCES BUT THE FORECAST WAS GENERALLY ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL ADVERTISING ABOUT THE SAME
SCENARIOS THAT DIFFER AMONGST SOLUTIONS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL RAIN AND THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT
WHAT ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
TEXAS...BECOMING NEUTRALLY TILTED. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY SWING
NEGATIVE AND ROTATE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE INVERSION AND STABLE AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT A WINDOW REMAINS WHERE SOME OF THE
UNSTABLE AIR ENTERS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS BEFORE A HUGE DRY SLOT
MOVES OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING TORNADOES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS...WITH WINDS HANGING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR
SO LONG...MOST OF THE TIME THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
PUSH FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD FOR A SEVERE THREAT. BUT THIS IS A VERY
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PULL THE UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD...PROVIDING A RATHER SMALL WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THIS MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE REALLY DO NOT SEE A TREND UNTIL
THE MORNING HOURS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE UNSTABLE AIR GETS. SO BE
PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND
IN THE EVENT OF A WATCH OR WARNING...BE PREPARED FOR QUICK ACTION.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY 02 TO 03Z. REALLY LOOKS LIKE
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY IMPACT TCL...BHM AND EET. WITH
THE LITTLE BIT QUICKER CLEARING MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A PERIOD
IN WHICH IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE AT
THUNDERSTORMS. VCTS MAY HAVE WORKED BETTER FOR THIS SET BUT
ALREADY HAD IN TSRA SO LEFT IT IN FOR PLANNING PURPOSES AND WILL
MAKE THOSE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 304 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOMORROW AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 60S AND ALSO SOME LOWER 70S OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS A WEDGE
AFFECT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS IN QUESTION. WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN EASTERLY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND TRY TO LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LINGERING WEDGE
AFFECT...SHOULD HELP SLOW/LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AND LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...PERHAPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM...ITS
DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FURTHER
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT WORDING IN THE
HWO AS IS.

AS FAR AS THE GENERAL SCENARIO GOES...LOOK FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT. THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL MESO-SCALE
FEATURES PLAYING A ROLE AS WELL INCLUDING A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL ALL HINGE ON INSTABILITY...AS THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH SHEAR...AND THAT WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH RAIN
CHANCES DROPPING VERY RAPIDLY AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES PAST.

MIDWEEK...ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING AND GOING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAK FEATURE
THAT MIGHT TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
DROPPING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. READINGS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  62  53  62  35 /  70 100  20  10  10
ANNISTON    53  64  55  65  37 /  80 100  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  56  66  56  63  38 /  80 100  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  56  68  54  63  38 /  70 100  10  10  10
CALERA      55  66  55  63  39 /  80 100  10  10  10
AUBURN      53  65  58  68  41 / 100 100  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  55  70  56  69  39 / 100 100  10  10  10
TROY        56  73  58  71  41 / 100 100  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 230359 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
959 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION...WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED THIS EVENING -- AND PRIMARILY TO INCREASE
LOW TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE DATA AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST
THAT A LOWER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS, AN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND,
AND POSITIVE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
NEGLIGIBLE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AROUND 06Z...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH 12Z. OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST WAS
INCREASED BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID- LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN BY 12Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOCUS HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION. THUS...HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN RESERVED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND MAINLY FOR THE PERIOD FROM 09-12Z.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL WITH
MODERATE SE FLOW AND BKN CS CIGS ARND 25 KFT. SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW
WITH SCT/BKN STRATUS OVERSPREADING REGION BY 23/03Z. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACK TO ESE BY 10Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 2000-2500 FT AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA. A
PRECEDING AREA OF RA/EMBEDDED TSRA OVER NE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY
PASS VERY CLOSE TO HSV BTWN 10-14Z...BUT BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST. HIGHER THREAT FOR RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST
BTWN 15-22Z AS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS NNEWD FROM
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN...THREAT
FOR RA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z AS WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NWD AND FLOW VEERS TO SSW.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230359 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
959 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION...WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED THIS EVENING -- AND PRIMARILY TO INCREASE
LOW TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE DATA AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST
THAT A LOWER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS, AN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND,
AND POSITIVE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
NEGLIGIBLE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AROUND 06Z...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH 12Z. OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST WAS
INCREASED BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID- LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN BY 12Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOCUS HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION. THUS...HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN RESERVED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND MAINLY FOR THE PERIOD FROM 09-12Z.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL WITH
MODERATE SE FLOW AND BKN CS CIGS ARND 25 KFT. SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW
WITH SCT/BKN STRATUS OVERSPREADING REGION BY 23/03Z. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACK TO ESE BY 10Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 2000-2500 FT AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA. A
PRECEDING AREA OF RA/EMBEDDED TSRA OVER NE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY
PASS VERY CLOSE TO HSV BTWN 10-14Z...BUT BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST. HIGHER THREAT FOR RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST
BTWN 15-22Z AS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS NNEWD FROM
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN...THREAT
FOR RA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z AS WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NWD AND FLOW VEERS TO SSW.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230359 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
959 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION...WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED THIS EVENING -- AND PRIMARILY TO INCREASE
LOW TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE DATA AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST
THAT A LOWER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS, AN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND,
AND POSITIVE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
NEGLIGIBLE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AROUND 06Z...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH 12Z. OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST WAS
INCREASED BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID- LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN BY 12Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOCUS HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION. THUS...HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN RESERVED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND MAINLY FOR THE PERIOD FROM 09-12Z.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL WITH
MODERATE SE FLOW AND BKN CS CIGS ARND 25 KFT. SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW
WITH SCT/BKN STRATUS OVERSPREADING REGION BY 23/03Z. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACK TO ESE BY 10Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 2000-2500 FT AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA. A
PRECEDING AREA OF RA/EMBEDDED TSRA OVER NE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY
PASS VERY CLOSE TO HSV BTWN 10-14Z...BUT BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST. HIGHER THREAT FOR RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST
BTWN 15-22Z AS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS NNEWD FROM
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN...THREAT
FOR RA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z AS WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NWD AND FLOW VEERS TO SSW.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230359 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
959 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION...WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED THIS EVENING -- AND PRIMARILY TO INCREASE
LOW TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE DATA AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST
THAT A LOWER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS, AN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND,
AND POSITIVE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
NEGLIGIBLE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AROUND 06Z...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH 12Z. OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST WAS
INCREASED BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID- LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN BY 12Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOCUS HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION. THUS...HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN RESERVED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND MAINLY FOR THE PERIOD FROM 09-12Z.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL WITH
MODERATE SE FLOW AND BKN CS CIGS ARND 25 KFT. SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW
WITH SCT/BKN STRATUS OVERSPREADING REGION BY 23/03Z. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACK TO ESE BY 10Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 2000-2500 FT AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA. A
PRECEDING AREA OF RA/EMBEDDED TSRA OVER NE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY
PASS VERY CLOSE TO HSV BTWN 10-14Z...BUT BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST. HIGHER THREAT FOR RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST
BTWN 15-22Z AS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS NNEWD FROM
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN...THREAT
FOR RA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z AS WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NWD AND FLOW VEERS TO SSW.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230358
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
958 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION...WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED THIS EVENING -- AND PRIMARILY TO INCREASE
LOW TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE DATA AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST
THAT A LOWER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS, AN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND,
AND POSITIVE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
NEGLIGIBLE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AROUND 06Z...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH 12Z. OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST WAS DECREASED
BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID- LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN BY 12Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOCUS HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION. THUS...HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN RESERVED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND MAINLY FOR THE PERIOD FROM 09-12Z.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL WITH
MODERATE SE FLOW AND BKN CS CIGS ARND 25 KFT. SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW
WITH SCT/BKN STRATUS OVERSPREADING REGION BY 23/03Z. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACK TO ESE BY 10Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 2000-2500 FT AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA. A
PRECEDING AREA OF RA/EMBEDDED TSRA OVER NE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY
PASS VERY CLOSE TO HSV BTWN 10-14Z...BUT BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST. HIGHER THREAT FOR RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST
BTWN 15-22Z AS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS NNEWD FROM
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN...THREAT
FOR RA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z AS WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NWD AND FLOW VEERS TO SSW.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230358
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
958 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION...WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED THIS EVENING -- AND PRIMARILY TO INCREASE
LOW TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE DATA AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST
THAT A LOWER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS, AN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND,
AND POSITIVE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
NEGLIGIBLE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AROUND 06Z...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH 12Z. OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST WAS DECREASED
BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID- LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN BY 12Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOCUS HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION. THUS...HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN RESERVED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND MAINLY FOR THE PERIOD FROM 09-12Z.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL WITH
MODERATE SE FLOW AND BKN CS CIGS ARND 25 KFT. SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW
WITH SCT/BKN STRATUS OVERSPREADING REGION BY 23/03Z. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACK TO ESE BY 10Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 2000-2500 FT AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA. A
PRECEDING AREA OF RA/EMBEDDED TSRA OVER NE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY
PASS VERY CLOSE TO HSV BTWN 10-14Z...BUT BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST. HIGHER THREAT FOR RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST
BTWN 15-22Z AS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS NNEWD FROM
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN...THREAT
FOR RA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z AS WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NWD AND FLOW VEERS TO SSW.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230358
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
958 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION...WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED THIS EVENING -- AND PRIMARILY TO INCREASE
LOW TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE DATA AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST
THAT A LOWER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS, AN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND,
AND POSITIVE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
NEGLIGIBLE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AROUND 06Z...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH 12Z. OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST WAS DECREASED
BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID- LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN BY 12Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOCUS HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION. THUS...HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN RESERVED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND MAINLY FOR THE PERIOD FROM 09-12Z.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL WITH
MODERATE SE FLOW AND BKN CS CIGS ARND 25 KFT. SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW
WITH SCT/BKN STRATUS OVERSPREADING REGION BY 23/03Z. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACK TO ESE BY 10Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 2000-2500 FT AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA. A
PRECEDING AREA OF RA/EMBEDDED TSRA OVER NE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY
PASS VERY CLOSE TO HSV BTWN 10-14Z...BUT BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST. HIGHER THREAT FOR RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST
BTWN 15-22Z AS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS NNEWD FROM
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN...THREAT
FOR RA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z AS WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NWD AND FLOW VEERS TO SSW.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230358
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
958 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION...WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED THIS EVENING -- AND PRIMARILY TO INCREASE
LOW TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE DATA AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST
THAT A LOWER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS, AN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND,
AND POSITIVE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
NEGLIGIBLE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AROUND 06Z...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH 12Z. OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST WAS DECREASED
BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID- LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN BY 12Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOCUS HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION. THUS...HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN RESERVED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND MAINLY FOR THE PERIOD FROM 09-12Z.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL WITH
MODERATE SE FLOW AND BKN CS CIGS ARND 25 KFT. SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW
WITH SCT/BKN STRATUS OVERSPREADING REGION BY 23/03Z. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACK TO ESE BY 10Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 2000-2500 FT AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA. A
PRECEDING AREA OF RA/EMBEDDED TSRA OVER NE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY
PASS VERY CLOSE TO HSV BTWN 10-14Z...BUT BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST. HIGHER THREAT FOR RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST
BTWN 15-22Z AS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS NNEWD FROM
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN...THREAT
FOR RA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z AS WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NWD AND FLOW VEERS TO SSW.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 222358
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL WITH
MODERATE SE FLOW AND BKN CS CIGS ARND 25 KFT. SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW
WITH SCT/BKN STRATUS OVERSPREADING REGION BY 23/03Z. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACK TO ESE BY 10Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 2000-2500 FT AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA. A
PRECEDING AREA OF RA/EMBEDDED TSRA OVER NE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY
PASS VERY CLOSE TO HSV BTWN 10-14Z...BUT BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST. HIGHER THREAT FOR RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST
BTWN 15-22Z AS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS NNEWD FROM
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN...THREAT
FOR RA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z AS WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NWD AND FLOW VEERS TO SSW.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 222358
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL WITH
MODERATE SE FLOW AND BKN CS CIGS ARND 25 KFT. SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW
WITH SCT/BKN STRATUS OVERSPREADING REGION BY 23/03Z. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACK TO ESE BY 10Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 2000-2500 FT AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA. A
PRECEDING AREA OF RA/EMBEDDED TSRA OVER NE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY
PASS VERY CLOSE TO HSV BTWN 10-14Z...BUT BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST. HIGHER THREAT FOR RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST
BTWN 15-22Z AS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS NNEWD FROM
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN...THREAT
FOR RA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z AS WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NWD AND FLOW VEERS TO SSW.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 222358
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL WITH
MODERATE SE FLOW AND BKN CS CIGS ARND 25 KFT. SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW
WITH SCT/BKN STRATUS OVERSPREADING REGION BY 23/03Z. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACK TO ESE BY 10Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 2000-2500 FT AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA. A
PRECEDING AREA OF RA/EMBEDDED TSRA OVER NE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY
PASS VERY CLOSE TO HSV BTWN 10-14Z...BUT BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST. HIGHER THREAT FOR RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST
BTWN 15-22Z AS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS NNEWD FROM
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN...THREAT
FOR RA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z AS WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NWD AND FLOW VEERS TO SSW.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 222358
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL WITH
MODERATE SE FLOW AND BKN CS CIGS ARND 25 KFT. SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW
WITH SCT/BKN STRATUS OVERSPREADING REGION BY 23/03Z. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACK TO ESE BY 10Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 2000-2500 FT AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA. A
PRECEDING AREA OF RA/EMBEDDED TSRA OVER NE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY
PASS VERY CLOSE TO HSV BTWN 10-14Z...BUT BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST. HIGHER THREAT FOR RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST
BTWN 15-22Z AS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS NNEWD FROM
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN...THREAT
FOR RA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z AS WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NWD AND FLOW VEERS TO SSW.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 222352 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
552 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
A MIX OF MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY LIFR
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 03Z
WITH THEN LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE BY 18-20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SQUALL LINE. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST
NEAR 14-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY BY NEAR 12Z SUNDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST
BY 18-20Z. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

.A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...STILL APPEARS TO BE BE
A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BACKED OFF OF THE ENHANCED THREAT OVERALL...BUT WE STILL FEEL LOCALLY
THAT THERE COULD BE A SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL ALABAMA
BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN OR
ELEVATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND
BECOMING MORE SFC BASED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. MOST OF THIS STRONGER SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3AM-6AM SUNDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THE MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAR INLAND THE BETTER INSTABILITIES MAKE IT...BUT WE FEEL PRETTY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR TO WARRANT MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB JET OF 50
TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF EJECTS ENERGY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. THIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROF
WILL HELP PRODUCE AMPLE VERTICAL LIFT.

BY AROUND 12Z (6 AM SUNDAY) WE EXPECT A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS TO BE
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES...MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
AL BY AROUND 10 AM...THEN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NOON TO 1 PM. BY AROUND 2
PM...MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILES...POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE
ITSELF. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...40 TO 50 MPH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT AND CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.  1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...UP TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT
FROM HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MINOR...TEMPORARY URBAN FLOODING.

12/DS

[MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT]...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL START MOVING IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND WITH
THE 850 MB TROUGH CLEARING US BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE LOW 70S IN THE
EAST...AND MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF.
LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S COASTAL. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 77/BD

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CRESTVIEW TO PENSACOLA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...AND LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
77/BD

MARINE...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WESTWARD TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. SEAS WILL TREND MUCH HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A GALE
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GULF COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. 12/DS

AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
STEADILY LOWERED...TO MVFR. BECOMING IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE...THEN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
ABOUT 23/09Z. BETWEEN 23/12Z-23/18Z A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  58  67  40 /  90  90  05  10  05
PENSACOLA   62  73  62  71  43 /  90  90  20  10  05
DESTIN      64  73  64  72  52 /  90  90  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   58  73  58  70  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  58  77  52  65  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
CAMDEN      56  74  54  68  37 /  90  90  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  73  61  71  41 /  90  90  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 222352 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
552 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
A MIX OF MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY LIFR
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 03Z
WITH THEN LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE BY 18-20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SQUALL LINE. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST
NEAR 14-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY BY NEAR 12Z SUNDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST
BY 18-20Z. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

.A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...STILL APPEARS TO BE BE
A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BACKED OFF OF THE ENHANCED THREAT OVERALL...BUT WE STILL FEEL LOCALLY
THAT THERE COULD BE A SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL ALABAMA
BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN OR
ELEVATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND
BECOMING MORE SFC BASED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. MOST OF THIS STRONGER SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3AM-6AM SUNDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THE MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAR INLAND THE BETTER INSTABILITIES MAKE IT...BUT WE FEEL PRETTY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR TO WARRANT MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB JET OF 50
TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF EJECTS ENERGY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. THIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROF
WILL HELP PRODUCE AMPLE VERTICAL LIFT.

BY AROUND 12Z (6 AM SUNDAY) WE EXPECT A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS TO BE
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES...MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
AL BY AROUND 10 AM...THEN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NOON TO 1 PM. BY AROUND 2
PM...MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILES...POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE
ITSELF. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...40 TO 50 MPH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT AND CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.  1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...UP TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT
FROM HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MINOR...TEMPORARY URBAN FLOODING.

12/DS

[MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT]...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL START MOVING IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND WITH
THE 850 MB TROUGH CLEARING US BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE LOW 70S IN THE
EAST...AND MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF.
LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S COASTAL. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 77/BD

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CRESTVIEW TO PENSACOLA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...AND LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
77/BD

MARINE...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WESTWARD TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. SEAS WILL TREND MUCH HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A GALE
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GULF COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. 12/DS

AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
STEADILY LOWERED...TO MVFR. BECOMING IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE...THEN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
ABOUT 23/09Z. BETWEEN 23/12Z-23/18Z A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  58  67  40 /  90  90  05  10  05
PENSACOLA   62  73  62  71  43 /  90  90  20  10  05
DESTIN      64  73  64  72  52 /  90  90  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   58  73  58  70  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  58  77  52  65  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
CAMDEN      56  74  54  68  37 /  90  90  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  73  61  71  41 /  90  90  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 222352 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
552 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
A MIX OF MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY LIFR
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 03Z
WITH THEN LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE BY 18-20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SQUALL LINE. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST
NEAR 14-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY BY NEAR 12Z SUNDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST
BY 18-20Z. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

.A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...STILL APPEARS TO BE BE
A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BACKED OFF OF THE ENHANCED THREAT OVERALL...BUT WE STILL FEEL LOCALLY
THAT THERE COULD BE A SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL ALABAMA
BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN OR
ELEVATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND
BECOMING MORE SFC BASED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. MOST OF THIS STRONGER SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3AM-6AM SUNDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THE MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAR INLAND THE BETTER INSTABILITIES MAKE IT...BUT WE FEEL PRETTY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR TO WARRANT MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB JET OF 50
TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF EJECTS ENERGY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. THIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROF
WILL HELP PRODUCE AMPLE VERTICAL LIFT.

BY AROUND 12Z (6 AM SUNDAY) WE EXPECT A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS TO BE
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES...MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
AL BY AROUND 10 AM...THEN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NOON TO 1 PM. BY AROUND 2
PM...MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILES...POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE
ITSELF. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...40 TO 50 MPH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT AND CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.  1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...UP TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT
FROM HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MINOR...TEMPORARY URBAN FLOODING.

12/DS

[MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT]...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL START MOVING IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND WITH
THE 850 MB TROUGH CLEARING US BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE LOW 70S IN THE
EAST...AND MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF.
LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S COASTAL. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 77/BD

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CRESTVIEW TO PENSACOLA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...AND LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
77/BD

MARINE...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WESTWARD TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. SEAS WILL TREND MUCH HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A GALE
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GULF COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. 12/DS

AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
STEADILY LOWERED...TO MVFR. BECOMING IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE...THEN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
ABOUT 23/09Z. BETWEEN 23/12Z-23/18Z A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  58  67  40 /  90  90  05  10  05
PENSACOLA   62  73  62  71  43 /  90  90  20  10  05
DESTIN      64  73  64  72  52 /  90  90  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   58  73  58  70  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  58  77  52  65  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
CAMDEN      56  74  54  68  37 /  90  90  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  73  61  71  41 /  90  90  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 222352 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
552 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
A MIX OF MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY LIFR
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 03Z
WITH THEN LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE BY 18-20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SQUALL LINE. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST
NEAR 14-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY BY NEAR 12Z SUNDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST
BY 18-20Z. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

.A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...STILL APPEARS TO BE BE
A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BACKED OFF OF THE ENHANCED THREAT OVERALL...BUT WE STILL FEEL LOCALLY
THAT THERE COULD BE A SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL ALABAMA
BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN OR
ELEVATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND
BECOMING MORE SFC BASED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. MOST OF THIS STRONGER SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3AM-6AM SUNDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THE MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAR INLAND THE BETTER INSTABILITIES MAKE IT...BUT WE FEEL PRETTY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR TO WARRANT MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB JET OF 50
TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF EJECTS ENERGY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. THIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROF
WILL HELP PRODUCE AMPLE VERTICAL LIFT.

BY AROUND 12Z (6 AM SUNDAY) WE EXPECT A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS TO BE
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES...MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
AL BY AROUND 10 AM...THEN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NOON TO 1 PM. BY AROUND 2
PM...MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILES...POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE
ITSELF. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...40 TO 50 MPH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT AND CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.  1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...UP TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT
FROM HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MINOR...TEMPORARY URBAN FLOODING.

12/DS

[MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT]...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL START MOVING IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND WITH
THE 850 MB TROUGH CLEARING US BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE LOW 70S IN THE
EAST...AND MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF.
LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S COASTAL. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 77/BD

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CRESTVIEW TO PENSACOLA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...AND LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
77/BD

MARINE...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WESTWARD TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. SEAS WILL TREND MUCH HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A GALE
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GULF COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. 12/DS

AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
STEADILY LOWERED...TO MVFR. BECOMING IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE...THEN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
ABOUT 23/09Z. BETWEEN 23/12Z-23/18Z A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  58  67  40 /  90  90  05  10  05
PENSACOLA   62  73  62  71  43 /  90  90  20  10  05
DESTIN      64  73  64  72  52 /  90  90  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   58  73  58  70  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  58  77  52  65  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
CAMDEN      56  74  54  68  37 /  90  90  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  73  61  71  41 /  90  90  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 222346
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
546 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOMORROW AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 60S AND ALSO SOME LOWER 70S OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS A WEDGE
AFFECT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS IN QUESTION. WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN EASTERLY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND TRY TO LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LINGERING WEDGE
AFFECT...SHOULD HELP SLOW/LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AND LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...PERHAPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM...ITS
DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FURTHER
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT WORDING IN THE
HWO AS IS.

AS FAR AS THE GENERAL SCENARIO GOES...LOOK FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT. THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL MESO-SCALE
FEATURES PLAYING A ROLE AS WELL INCLUDING A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL ALL HINGE ON INSTABILITY...AS THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH SHEAR...AND THAT WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH RAIN
CHANCES DROPPING VERY RAPIDLY AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES PAST.

MIDWEEK...ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING AND GOING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAK FEATURE
THAT MIGHT TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
DROPPING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. READINGS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY 02 TO 03Z. REALLY LOOKS LIKE
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY IMPACT TCL...BHM AND EET. WITH
THE LITTLE BIT QUICKER CLEARING MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A PERIOD
IN WHICH IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE AT
THUNDERSTORMS. VCTS MAY HAVE WORKED BETTER FOR THIS SET BUT
ALREADY HAD IN TSRA SO LEFT IT IN FOR PLANNING PURPOSES AND WILL
MAKE THOSE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 222346
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
546 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOMORROW AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 60S AND ALSO SOME LOWER 70S OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS A WEDGE
AFFECT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS IN QUESTION. WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN EASTERLY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND TRY TO LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LINGERING WEDGE
AFFECT...SHOULD HELP SLOW/LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AND LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...PERHAPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM...ITS
DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FURTHER
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT WORDING IN THE
HWO AS IS.

AS FAR AS THE GENERAL SCENARIO GOES...LOOK FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT. THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL MESO-SCALE
FEATURES PLAYING A ROLE AS WELL INCLUDING A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL ALL HINGE ON INSTABILITY...AS THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH SHEAR...AND THAT WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH RAIN
CHANCES DROPPING VERY RAPIDLY AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES PAST.

MIDWEEK...ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING AND GOING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAK FEATURE
THAT MIGHT TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
DROPPING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. READINGS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY 02 TO 03Z. REALLY LOOKS LIKE
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY IMPACT TCL...BHM AND EET. WITH
THE LITTLE BIT QUICKER CLEARING MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A PERIOD
IN WHICH IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE AT
THUNDERSTORMS. VCTS MAY HAVE WORKED BETTER FOR THIS SET BUT
ALREADY HAD IN TSRA SO LEFT IT IN FOR PLANNING PURPOSES AND WILL
MAKE THOSE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 222216
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

..A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...STILL APPEARS TO BE BE
A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BACKED OFF OF THE ENHANCED THREAT OVERALL...BUT WE STILL FEEL LOCALLY
THAT THERE COULD BE A SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL ALABAMA
BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN OR
ELEVATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND
BECOMING MORE SFC BASED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. MOST OF THIS STRONGER SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3AM-6AM SUNDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THE MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAR INLAND THE BETTER INSTABILITIES MAKE IT...BUT WE FEEL PRETTY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR TO WARRANT MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB JET OF 50
TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF EJECTS ENERGY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. THIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROF
WILL HELP PRODUCE AMPLE VERTICAL LIFT.

BY AROUND 12Z (6 AM SUNDAY) WE EXPECT A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS TO BE
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES...MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
AL BY AROUND 10 AM...THEN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NOON TO 1 PM. BY AROUND 2
PM...MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILES...POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE
ITSELF. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...40 TO 50 MPH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT AND CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.  1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...UP TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT
FROM HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MINOR...TEMPORARY URBAN FLOODING.

12/DS

[MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT]...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL START MOVING IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND WITH
THE 850 MB TROUGH CLEARING US BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE LOW 70S IN THE
EAST...AND MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF.
LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S COASTAL. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CRESTVIEW TO PENSACOLA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...AND LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WESTWARD TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. SEAS WILL TREND MUCH HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A GALE
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GULF COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
STEADILY LOWERED...TO MVFR. BECOMING IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE...THEN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
ABOUT 23/09Z. BETWEEN 23/12Z-23/18Z A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  58  67  40 /  90  90  05  10  05
PENSACOLA   62  73  62  71  43 /  90  90  20  10  05
DESTIN      64  73  64  72  52 /  90  90  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   58  73  58  70  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  58  77  52  65  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
CAMDEN      56  74  54  68  37 /  90  90  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  73  61  71  41 /  90  90  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 222216
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

..A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...STILL APPEARS TO BE BE
A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BACKED OFF OF THE ENHANCED THREAT OVERALL...BUT WE STILL FEEL LOCALLY
THAT THERE COULD BE A SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL ALABAMA
BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN OR
ELEVATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND
BECOMING MORE SFC BASED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. MOST OF THIS STRONGER SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3AM-6AM SUNDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THE MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAR INLAND THE BETTER INSTABILITIES MAKE IT...BUT WE FEEL PRETTY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR TO WARRANT MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB JET OF 50
TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF EJECTS ENERGY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. THIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROF
WILL HELP PRODUCE AMPLE VERTICAL LIFT.

BY AROUND 12Z (6 AM SUNDAY) WE EXPECT A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS TO BE
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES...MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
AL BY AROUND 10 AM...THEN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NOON TO 1 PM. BY AROUND 2
PM...MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILES...POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE
ITSELF. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...40 TO 50 MPH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT AND CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.  1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...UP TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT
FROM HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MINOR...TEMPORARY URBAN FLOODING.

12/DS

[MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT]...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL START MOVING IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND WITH
THE 850 MB TROUGH CLEARING US BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE LOW 70S IN THE
EAST...AND MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF.
LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S COASTAL. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CRESTVIEW TO PENSACOLA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...AND LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WESTWARD TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. SEAS WILL TREND MUCH HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A GALE
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GULF COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
STEADILY LOWERED...TO MVFR. BECOMING IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE...THEN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
ABOUT 23/09Z. BETWEEN 23/12Z-23/18Z A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  58  67  40 /  90  90  05  10  05
PENSACOLA   62  73  62  71  43 /  90  90  20  10  05
DESTIN      64  73  64  72  52 /  90  90  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   58  73  58  70  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  58  77  52  65  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
CAMDEN      56  74  54  68  37 /  90  90  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  73  61  71  41 /  90  90  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 222105
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLACKING AFTER SUNSET. IFR CIGS WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH RAIN BEGINNING BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  64  51  61 /  40 100  30  20
SHOALS        48  66  52  62 /  40 100  30  20
VINEMONT      47  64  51  62 /  50 100  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  46  62  50  59 /  30 100  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   46  63  50  60 /  50 100  30  20
FORT PAYNE    45  63  50  60 /  40 100  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 222105
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLACKING AFTER SUNSET. IFR CIGS WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH RAIN BEGINNING BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  64  51  61 /  40 100  30  20
SHOALS        48  66  52  62 /  40 100  30  20
VINEMONT      47  64  51  62 /  50 100  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  46  62  50  59 /  30 100  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   46  63  50  60 /  50 100  30  20
FORT PAYNE    45  63  50  60 /  40 100  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 222104
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
304 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOMORROW AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 60S AND ALSO SOME LOWER 70S OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS A WEDGE
AFFECT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS IN QUESTION. WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN EASTERLY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND TRY TO LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LINGERING WEDGE
AFFECT...SHOULD HELP SLOW/LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AND LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...PERHAPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM...ITS
DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FURTHER
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT WORDING IN THE
HWO AS IS.

AS FAR AS THE GENERAL SCENARIO GOES...LOOK FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT. THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL MESO-SCALE
FEATURES PLAYING A ROLE AS WELL INCLUDING A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL ALL HINGE ON INSTABILITY...AS THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH SHEAR...AND THAT WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH RAIN
CHANCES DROPPING VERY RAPIDLY AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES PAST.

MIDWEEK...ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING AND GOING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAK FEATURE
THAT MIGHT TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
DROPPING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. READINGS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE...MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AND GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF
LOWER CIGS. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD AFTER
22/23Z...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS OR AFFECT A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL
HOLD OFF INTRODUCING SHOWERS IN AT TCL...BHM...EET...AND ANB UNTIL
AFTER 23/06Z.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  62  53  62  35 /  70 100  20  10  10
ANNISTON    50  64  55  65  37 /  80 100  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  66  56  63  38 /  70 100  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  56  68  54  63  38 /  70 100  10  10  10
CALERA      53  66  55  63  39 /  70 100  10  10  10
AUBURN      53  65  58  68  41 /  90 100  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  56  70  56  69  39 /  90 100  10  10  10
TROY        55  73  58  71  41 / 100 100  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 222104
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
304 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOMORROW AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 60S AND ALSO SOME LOWER 70S OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS A WEDGE
AFFECT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS IN QUESTION. WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN EASTERLY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND TRY TO LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LINGERING WEDGE
AFFECT...SHOULD HELP SLOW/LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AND LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...PERHAPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM...ITS
DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FURTHER
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT WORDING IN THE
HWO AS IS.

AS FAR AS THE GENERAL SCENARIO GOES...LOOK FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT. THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL MESO-SCALE
FEATURES PLAYING A ROLE AS WELL INCLUDING A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL ALL HINGE ON INSTABILITY...AS THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH SHEAR...AND THAT WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH RAIN
CHANCES DROPPING VERY RAPIDLY AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES PAST.

MIDWEEK...ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING AND GOING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAK FEATURE
THAT MIGHT TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
DROPPING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. READINGS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE...MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AND GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF
LOWER CIGS. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD AFTER
22/23Z...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS OR AFFECT A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL
HOLD OFF INTRODUCING SHOWERS IN AT TCL...BHM...EET...AND ANB UNTIL
AFTER 23/06Z.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  62  53  62  35 /  70 100  20  10  10
ANNISTON    50  64  55  65  37 /  80 100  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  66  56  63  38 /  70 100  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  56  68  54  63  38 /  70 100  10  10  10
CALERA      53  66  55  63  39 /  70 100  10  10  10
AUBURN      53  65  58  68  41 /  90 100  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  56  70  56  69  39 /  90 100  10  10  10
TROY        55  73  58  71  41 / 100 100  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 221811
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PRONOUNCED WEDGE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING FROM
THE EAST. SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. PW
VALUES ALSO RANGE FROM 0.40 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST TO 0.60 INCHES
IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE WEDGE IS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THROUGH TONIGHT...THE
WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND
STORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A BROKEN STRATUS
DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-85 CORRIDOR...AND A COUPLE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL DECKS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOOKING
AT SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...CLOUDS ARE
GENERALLY ERODING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR. DO EXPECT A
CIRRUS DECK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
BROKEN STATUS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...SO WILL STILL
SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE LACK
OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED IN THE
WEST. WARM UP IS SLOWER IN THE EAST GIVEN THE COOL DRY EASTERLY
FLOW. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE WEST...BUT
GENERALLY MID 60S WEST TO MID 50S EAST FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED.

SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
HINGES ON HOW FAR A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
FROM THE GULF COAST...AND THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS THE ABILITY OF THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH WILL DEPEND ON THE
WEDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. MORE DETAILS ON THE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
FORECAST WILL BE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE...MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AND GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF
LOWER CIGS. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD AFTER
22/23Z...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS OR AFFECT A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL
HOLD OFF INTRODUCING SHOWERS IN AT TCL...BHM...EET...AND ANB UNTIL
AFTER 23/06Z.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

THIS MORNING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CURVING BACK TOWARD ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...WITH EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY INTO TEXAS
TONIGHT. THEN BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING IT IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO
THE NORTHEAST GIVING A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND THEN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND GET NUDGED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS PUSHING IT ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO NORTH LOUISIANA
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL PULL WARM FRONT TYPE MOISTURE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO
HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SETUP...WE SHOULD SEE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
(SOUTH OF I-85) TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO RECOVER
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH OUR EASTERLY FLOW SETUP. AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THEN LATER
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITH STILL THAT EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
SEVERE LIMITS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL DATA ARE GOING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRY
LINE BOUNDARY AND THUS MORE HEAT OF THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MORE INSTABILITY. WE HAVE PUSHED BACK OUR THREAT TIME TO 7 AM
TO 4 PM BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE FROM AROUND 10 AM TO 2
PM. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE ARRIVAL WILL
OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY MAKE THE
DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND EXACTLY HOW
FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES REACH. THE WARM
FRONT COULD GET A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRY LINE AND THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LITTLE MORE
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE POTENTIALLY UNDER THE GUN FOR
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE LINE
COMES THROUGH...ANY FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY LOCALLY
CELL DRIVEN AND NOT AS MUCH WIDESPREAD AS THE LINE SHOULD KEEP
MOVING.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
ALTHOUGH A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING
IT SHOULD ONLY REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  48  64  52  64 /  10  70 100  30  20
ANNISTON    61  50  67  54  65 /  10  80 100  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  53  68  53  64 /  10  70 100  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  66  55  70  52  65 /  10  70 100  20  10
CALERA      64  53  68  54  66 /  10  70 100  20  10
AUBURN      61  53  68  59  69 /  10  90 100  30  10
MONTGOMERY  66  55  72  57  70 /  10  90 100  20  10
TROY        65  56  72  58  71 /  20 100 100  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 221811
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PRONOUNCED WEDGE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING FROM
THE EAST. SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. PW
VALUES ALSO RANGE FROM 0.40 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST TO 0.60 INCHES
IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE WEDGE IS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THROUGH TONIGHT...THE
WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND
STORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A BROKEN STRATUS
DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-85 CORRIDOR...AND A COUPLE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL DECKS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOOKING
AT SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...CLOUDS ARE
GENERALLY ERODING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR. DO EXPECT A
CIRRUS DECK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
BROKEN STATUS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...SO WILL STILL
SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE LACK
OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED IN THE
WEST. WARM UP IS SLOWER IN THE EAST GIVEN THE COOL DRY EASTERLY
FLOW. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE WEST...BUT
GENERALLY MID 60S WEST TO MID 50S EAST FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED.

SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
HINGES ON HOW FAR A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
FROM THE GULF COAST...AND THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS THE ABILITY OF THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH WILL DEPEND ON THE
WEDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. MORE DETAILS ON THE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
FORECAST WILL BE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE...MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AND GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF
LOWER CIGS. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD AFTER
22/23Z...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS OR AFFECT A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL
HOLD OFF INTRODUCING SHOWERS IN AT TCL...BHM...EET...AND ANB UNTIL
AFTER 23/06Z.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

THIS MORNING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CURVING BACK TOWARD ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...WITH EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY INTO TEXAS
TONIGHT. THEN BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING IT IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO
THE NORTHEAST GIVING A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND THEN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND GET NUDGED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS PUSHING IT ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO NORTH LOUISIANA
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL PULL WARM FRONT TYPE MOISTURE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO
HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SETUP...WE SHOULD SEE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
(SOUTH OF I-85) TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO RECOVER
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH OUR EASTERLY FLOW SETUP. AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THEN LATER
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITH STILL THAT EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
SEVERE LIMITS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL DATA ARE GOING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRY
LINE BOUNDARY AND THUS MORE HEAT OF THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MORE INSTABILITY. WE HAVE PUSHED BACK OUR THREAT TIME TO 7 AM
TO 4 PM BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE FROM AROUND 10 AM TO 2
PM. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE ARRIVAL WILL
OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY MAKE THE
DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND EXACTLY HOW
FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES REACH. THE WARM
FRONT COULD GET A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRY LINE AND THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LITTLE MORE
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE POTENTIALLY UNDER THE GUN FOR
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE LINE
COMES THROUGH...ANY FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY LOCALLY
CELL DRIVEN AND NOT AS MUCH WIDESPREAD AS THE LINE SHOULD KEEP
MOVING.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
ALTHOUGH A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING
IT SHOULD ONLY REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  48  64  52  64 /  10  70 100  30  20
ANNISTON    61  50  67  54  65 /  10  80 100  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  53  68  53  64 /  10  70 100  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  66  55  70  52  65 /  10  70 100  20  10
CALERA      64  53  68  54  66 /  10  70 100  20  10
AUBURN      61  53  68  59  69 /  10  90 100  30  10
MONTGOMERY  66  55  72  57  70 /  10  90 100  20  10
TROY        65  56  72  58  71 /  20 100 100  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 221811
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PRONOUNCED WEDGE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING FROM
THE EAST. SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. PW
VALUES ALSO RANGE FROM 0.40 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST TO 0.60 INCHES
IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE WEDGE IS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THROUGH TONIGHT...THE
WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND
STORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A BROKEN STRATUS
DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-85 CORRIDOR...AND A COUPLE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL DECKS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOOKING
AT SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...CLOUDS ARE
GENERALLY ERODING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR. DO EXPECT A
CIRRUS DECK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
BROKEN STATUS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...SO WILL STILL
SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE LACK
OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED IN THE
WEST. WARM UP IS SLOWER IN THE EAST GIVEN THE COOL DRY EASTERLY
FLOW. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE WEST...BUT
GENERALLY MID 60S WEST TO MID 50S EAST FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED.

SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
HINGES ON HOW FAR A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
FROM THE GULF COAST...AND THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS THE ABILITY OF THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH WILL DEPEND ON THE
WEDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. MORE DETAILS ON THE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
FORECAST WILL BE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE...MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AND GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF
LOWER CIGS. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD AFTER
22/23Z...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS OR AFFECT A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL
HOLD OFF INTRODUCING SHOWERS IN AT TCL...BHM...EET...AND ANB UNTIL
AFTER 23/06Z.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

THIS MORNING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CURVING BACK TOWARD ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...WITH EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY INTO TEXAS
TONIGHT. THEN BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING IT IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO
THE NORTHEAST GIVING A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND THEN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND GET NUDGED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS PUSHING IT ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO NORTH LOUISIANA
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL PULL WARM FRONT TYPE MOISTURE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO
HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SETUP...WE SHOULD SEE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
(SOUTH OF I-85) TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO RECOVER
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH OUR EASTERLY FLOW SETUP. AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THEN LATER
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITH STILL THAT EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
SEVERE LIMITS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL DATA ARE GOING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRY
LINE BOUNDARY AND THUS MORE HEAT OF THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MORE INSTABILITY. WE HAVE PUSHED BACK OUR THREAT TIME TO 7 AM
TO 4 PM BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE FROM AROUND 10 AM TO 2
PM. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE ARRIVAL WILL
OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY MAKE THE
DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND EXACTLY HOW
FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES REACH. THE WARM
FRONT COULD GET A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRY LINE AND THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LITTLE MORE
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE POTENTIALLY UNDER THE GUN FOR
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE LINE
COMES THROUGH...ANY FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY LOCALLY
CELL DRIVEN AND NOT AS MUCH WIDESPREAD AS THE LINE SHOULD KEEP
MOVING.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
ALTHOUGH A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING
IT SHOULD ONLY REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  48  64  52  64 /  10  70 100  30  20
ANNISTON    61  50  67  54  65 /  10  80 100  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  53  68  53  64 /  10  70 100  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  66  55  70  52  65 /  10  70 100  20  10
CALERA      64  53  68  54  66 /  10  70 100  20  10
AUBURN      61  53  68  59  69 /  10  90 100  30  10
MONTGOMERY  66  55  72  57  70 /  10  90 100  20  10
TROY        65  56  72  58  71 /  20 100 100  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 221811
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PRONOUNCED WEDGE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING FROM
THE EAST. SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. PW
VALUES ALSO RANGE FROM 0.40 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST TO 0.60 INCHES
IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE WEDGE IS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THROUGH TONIGHT...THE
WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND
STORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A BROKEN STRATUS
DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-85 CORRIDOR...AND A COUPLE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL DECKS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOOKING
AT SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...CLOUDS ARE
GENERALLY ERODING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR. DO EXPECT A
CIRRUS DECK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
BROKEN STATUS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...SO WILL STILL
SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE LACK
OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED IN THE
WEST. WARM UP IS SLOWER IN THE EAST GIVEN THE COOL DRY EASTERLY
FLOW. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE WEST...BUT
GENERALLY MID 60S WEST TO MID 50S EAST FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED.

SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
HINGES ON HOW FAR A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
FROM THE GULF COAST...AND THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS THE ABILITY OF THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH WILL DEPEND ON THE
WEDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. MORE DETAILS ON THE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
FORECAST WILL BE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE...MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AND GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF
LOWER CIGS. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD AFTER
22/23Z...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS OR AFFECT A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL
HOLD OFF INTRODUCING SHOWERS IN AT TCL...BHM...EET...AND ANB UNTIL
AFTER 23/06Z.

SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

THIS MORNING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CURVING BACK TOWARD ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...WITH EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY INTO TEXAS
TONIGHT. THEN BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING IT IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO
THE NORTHEAST GIVING A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND THEN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND GET NUDGED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS PUSHING IT ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO NORTH LOUISIANA
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL PULL WARM FRONT TYPE MOISTURE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO
HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SETUP...WE SHOULD SEE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
(SOUTH OF I-85) TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO RECOVER
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH OUR EASTERLY FLOW SETUP. AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THEN LATER
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITH STILL THAT EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
SEVERE LIMITS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL DATA ARE GOING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRY
LINE BOUNDARY AND THUS MORE HEAT OF THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MORE INSTABILITY. WE HAVE PUSHED BACK OUR THREAT TIME TO 7 AM
TO 4 PM BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE FROM AROUND 10 AM TO 2
PM. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE ARRIVAL WILL
OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY MAKE THE
DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND EXACTLY HOW
FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES REACH. THE WARM
FRONT COULD GET A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRY LINE AND THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LITTLE MORE
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE POTENTIALLY UNDER THE GUN FOR
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE LINE
COMES THROUGH...ANY FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY LOCALLY
CELL DRIVEN AND NOT AS MUCH WIDESPREAD AS THE LINE SHOULD KEEP
MOVING.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
ALTHOUGH A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING
IT SHOULD ONLY REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  48  64  52  64 /  10  70 100  30  20
ANNISTON    61  50  67  54  65 /  10  80 100  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  53  68  53  64 /  10  70 100  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  66  55  70  52  65 /  10  70 100  20  10
CALERA      64  53  68  54  66 /  10  70 100  20  10
AUBURN      61  53  68  59  69 /  10  90 100  30  10
MONTGOMERY  66  55  72  57  70 /  10  90 100  20  10
TROY        65  56  72  58  71 /  20 100 100  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 221747
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER TO OUR
WEST...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS TEXAS. WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL STREAM THESE CLOUDS IN OVER THE AREA DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH MORE...WHILE THE
EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE A FEW MORE AREAS TO WARM UP BEFORE THE CLOUDS
SETTLE IN. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...SO ONLY ADJUSTMENTS
MADE WERE TO THE HOURLIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRANSITION
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATES ARE OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLACKING AFTER SUNSET. IFR CIGS WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH RAIN BEGINNING BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221747
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER TO OUR
WEST...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS TEXAS. WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL STREAM THESE CLOUDS IN OVER THE AREA DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH MORE...WHILE THE
EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE A FEW MORE AREAS TO WARM UP BEFORE THE CLOUDS
SETTLE IN. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...SO ONLY ADJUSTMENTS
MADE WERE TO THE HOURLIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRANSITION
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATES ARE OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLACKING AFTER SUNSET. IFR CIGS WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH RAIN BEGINNING BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221747
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER TO OUR
WEST...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS TEXAS. WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL STREAM THESE CLOUDS IN OVER THE AREA DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH MORE...WHILE THE
EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE A FEW MORE AREAS TO WARM UP BEFORE THE CLOUDS
SETTLE IN. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...SO ONLY ADJUSTMENTS
MADE WERE TO THE HOURLIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRANSITION
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATES ARE OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLACKING AFTER SUNSET. IFR CIGS WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH RAIN BEGINNING BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221747
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER TO OUR
WEST...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS TEXAS. WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL STREAM THESE CLOUDS IN OVER THE AREA DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH MORE...WHILE THE
EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE A FEW MORE AREAS TO WARM UP BEFORE THE CLOUDS
SETTLE IN. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...SO ONLY ADJUSTMENTS
MADE WERE TO THE HOURLIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRANSITION
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATES ARE OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLACKING AFTER SUNSET. IFR CIGS WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH RAIN BEGINNING BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221658
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1058 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PRONOUNCED WEDGE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING FROM
THE EAST. SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. PW
VALUES ALSO RANGE FROM 0.40 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST TO 0.60 INCHES
IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE WEDGE IS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THROUGH TONIGHT...THE
WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND
STORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A BROKEN STRATUS
DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-85 CORRIDOR...AND A COUPLE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL DECKS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOOKING
AT SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...CLOUDS ARE
GENERALLY ERODING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR. DO EXPECT A
CIRRUS DECK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
BROKEN STATUS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...SO WILL STILL
SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE LACK
OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED IN THE
WEST. WARM UP IS SLOWER IN THE EAST GIVEN THE COOL DRY EASTERLY
FLOW. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE WEST...BUT
GENERALLY MID 60S WEST TO MID 50S EAST FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED.

SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW HINGES
ON HOW FAR A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM
THE GULF COAST...AND THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS THE ABILITY OF THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH WILL DEPEND ON THE
WEDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. MORE DETAILS ON THE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
FORECAST WILL BE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. WILL LIKELY
NEED TO REFINE LOW CIGS ONCE DECKS DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM LATE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM. AT THE ONSET OF
RAINFALL...SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
IMPACTS TO AVIATION CONCERNS AT ANY ONE TERMINAL. BEST RAIN
CHANCES EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH 23/12Z. MORE DETAILS WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST...AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEYOND
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME AS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY MORNING.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

THIS MORNING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CURVING BACK TOWARD ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...WITH EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY INTO TEXAS
TONIGHT. THEN BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING IT IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO
THE NORTHEAST GIVING A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND THEN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND GET NUDGED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS PUSHING IT ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO NORTH LOUISIANA
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL PULL WARM FRONT TYPE MOISTURE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO
HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SETUP...WE SHOULD SEE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
(SOUTH OF I-85) TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO RECOVER
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH OUR EASTERLY FLOW SETUP. AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THEN LATER
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITH STILL THAT EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
SEVERE LIMITS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL DATA ARE GOING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRY
LINE BOUNDARY AND THUS MORE HEAT OF THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MORE INSTABILITY. WE HAVE PUSHED BACK OUR THREAT TIME TO 7 AM
TO 4 PM BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE FROM AROUND 10 AM TO 2
PM. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE ARRIVAL WILL
OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY MAKE THE
DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND EXACTLY HOW
FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES REACH. THE WARM
FRONT COULD GET A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRY LINE AND THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LITTLE MORE
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE POTENTIALLY UNDER THE GUN FOR
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE LINE
COMES THROUGH...ANY FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY LOCALLY
CELL DRIVEN AND NOT AS MUCH WIDESPREAD AS THE LINE SHOULD KEEP
MOVING.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
ALTHOUGH A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING
IT SHOULD ONLY REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  48  64  52  64 /  10  70 100  30  20
ANNISTON    61  50  67  54  65 /  10  80 100  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  53  68  53  64 /  10  70 100  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  66  55  70  52  65 /  10  70 100  20  10
CALERA      64  53  68  54  66 /  10  70 100  20  10
AUBURN      61  53  68  59  69 /  10  90 100  30  10
MONTGOMERY  66  55  72  57  70 /  10  90 100  20  10
TROY        65  56  72  58  71 /  20 100 100  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 221658
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1058 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PRONOUNCED WEDGE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING FROM
THE EAST. SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. PW
VALUES ALSO RANGE FROM 0.40 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST TO 0.60 INCHES
IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE WEDGE IS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THROUGH TONIGHT...THE
WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND
STORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A BROKEN STRATUS
DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-85 CORRIDOR...AND A COUPLE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL DECKS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOOKING
AT SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...CLOUDS ARE
GENERALLY ERODING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR. DO EXPECT A
CIRRUS DECK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
BROKEN STATUS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...SO WILL STILL
SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE LACK
OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED IN THE
WEST. WARM UP IS SLOWER IN THE EAST GIVEN THE COOL DRY EASTERLY
FLOW. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE WEST...BUT
GENERALLY MID 60S WEST TO MID 50S EAST FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED.

SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW HINGES
ON HOW FAR A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM
THE GULF COAST...AND THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS THE ABILITY OF THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH WILL DEPEND ON THE
WEDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. MORE DETAILS ON THE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
FORECAST WILL BE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. WILL LIKELY
NEED TO REFINE LOW CIGS ONCE DECKS DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM LATE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM. AT THE ONSET OF
RAINFALL...SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
IMPACTS TO AVIATION CONCERNS AT ANY ONE TERMINAL. BEST RAIN
CHANCES EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH 23/12Z. MORE DETAILS WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST...AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEYOND
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME AS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY MORNING.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

THIS MORNING A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CURVING BACK TOWARD ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...WITH EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY INTO TEXAS
TONIGHT. THEN BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING IT IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO
THE NORTHEAST GIVING A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND THEN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND GET NUDGED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS PUSHING IT ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO NORTH LOUISIANA
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL PULL WARM FRONT TYPE MOISTURE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO
HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SETUP...WE SHOULD SEE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
(SOUTH OF I-85) TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO RECOVER
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH OUR EASTERLY FLOW SETUP. AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THEN LATER
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITH STILL THAT EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
SEVERE LIMITS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL DATA ARE GOING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRY
LINE BOUNDARY AND THUS MORE HEAT OF THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MORE INSTABILITY. WE HAVE PUSHED BACK OUR THREAT TIME TO 7 AM
TO 4 PM BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE FROM AROUND 10 AM TO 2
PM. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE ARRIVAL WILL
OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY MAKE THE
DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND EXACTLY HOW
FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES REACH. THE WARM
FRONT COULD GET A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRY LINE AND THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LITTLE MORE
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE POTENTIALLY UNDER THE GUN FOR
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE LINE
COMES THROUGH...ANY FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY LOCALLY
CELL DRIVEN AND NOT AS MUCH WIDESPREAD AS THE LINE SHOULD KEEP
MOVING.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
ALTHOUGH A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING
IT SHOULD ONLY REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  48  64  52  64 /  10  70 100  30  20
ANNISTON    61  50  67  54  65 /  10  80 100  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  53  68  53  64 /  10  70 100  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  66  55  70  52  65 /  10  70 100  20  10
CALERA      64  53  68  54  66 /  10  70 100  20  10
AUBURN      61  53  68  59  69 /  10  90 100  30  10
MONTGOMERY  66  55  72  57  70 /  10  90 100  20  10
TROY        65  56  72  58  71 /  20 100 100  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 221640 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER TO OUR
WEST...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS TEXAS. WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL STREAM THESE CLOUDS IN OVER THE AREA DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH MORE...WHILE THE
EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE A FEW MORE AREAS TO WARM UP BEFORE THE CLOUDS
SETTLE IN. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...SO ONLY ADJUSTMENTS
MADE WERE TO THE HOURLIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRANSITION
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATES ARE OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 550 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE W...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED WELL INTO THE EVENING HRS. SFC
WINDS OUT OF THE SE ARE XPCTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCT -SHRA...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS...WILL THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221640 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER TO OUR
WEST...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS TEXAS. WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL STREAM THESE CLOUDS IN OVER THE AREA DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH MORE...WHILE THE
EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE A FEW MORE AREAS TO WARM UP BEFORE THE CLOUDS
SETTLE IN. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...SO ONLY ADJUSTMENTS
MADE WERE TO THE HOURLIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRANSITION
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATES ARE OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 550 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE W...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED WELL INTO THE EVENING HRS. SFC
WINDS OUT OF THE SE ARE XPCTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCT -SHRA...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS...WILL THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities