Home > Products > State Listing > Alabama Data
Latest:
 AFDHUN |  AFDBMX |  AFDMOB |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 030458 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
03/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING
CONVECTION TO ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS. LIGHT WEST WINDS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE MONDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY NOTICEABLY IN BOTH KLH RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. NHC HAS
GIVEN THIS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LIFTS THE SFC LOW UP TO THE NORTHEAST FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN GFS WITH SFC LOW...AND WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE WEAK SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
DAY. A TRAILING SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THRU MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDFALL TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING
AROUND 105 DEGREES. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY EXITS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
..ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY
..BUT KEEPING POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102-105 RANGE. 07/MB

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND
SLIDES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID WEEK...EVIDENT IN MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0
INCHES LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
..MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. BY WEEKS END...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES IN RISE INTO THE 102-105 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...SLIGHTLY LOWER BY THE WEEKEND WITH INDICES OF 99-103.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DIURNAL WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS). GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  96  76 /  05  10  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  94  77 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      83  90  79  93  79 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  71  98  72 /  05  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  98  71  98  73 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  97  70  98  72 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  98  72  97  73 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 030458 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
03/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING
CONVECTION TO ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS. LIGHT WEST WINDS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE MONDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY NOTICEABLY IN BOTH KLH RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. NHC HAS
GIVEN THIS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LIFTS THE SFC LOW UP TO THE NORTHEAST FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN GFS WITH SFC LOW...AND WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE WEAK SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
DAY. A TRAILING SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THRU MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDFALL TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING
AROUND 105 DEGREES. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY EXITS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
..ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY
..BUT KEEPING POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102-105 RANGE. 07/MB

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND
SLIDES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID WEEK...EVIDENT IN MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0
INCHES LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
..MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. BY WEEKS END...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES IN RISE INTO THE 102-105 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...SLIGHTLY LOWER BY THE WEEKEND WITH INDICES OF 99-103.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DIURNAL WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS). GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  96  76 /  05  10  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  94  77 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      83  90  79  93  79 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  71  98  72 /  05  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  98  71  98  73 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  97  70  98  72 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  98  72  97  73 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 030451
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING LATE THIS EVENING. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ONCE
AGAIN...WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS IN GEORGIA HAVE
TRIGGERED VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN COME TO AN END
TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DEWPOINTS AT THIS HOUR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH MIXING
CONTINUING AT A FEW LOCATIONS AND DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT OTHERS. THEREFORE...A FEW 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN BUT 60S ARE THE
MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
ALSO...THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA THIS EVENING WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS PRESENT FOR TROY,
EUFAULA, AND PHENIX CITY. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRY AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN. EVENING UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...A VFR FORECAST. A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE STILL ROTATING WESTWARD NEAR TOI...WITH ONE ROGUE
SHOWER TO THE NORTHEAST OF TOI/MGM. CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT
THE TERMINAL WAS EVEN LOWER THIS TIME OUT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
NO MENTION. OTHERWISE ...FEW-SCT CUMULUS NEAR THESE OUTFLOWS
MGM/TOI. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT ARE SIGNIFICANT. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.

GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  95  67  96  71 /   0  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  95  68  96  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  95  72  98  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  97  71  99  74 /   0  10   0  10  10
CALERA      67  94  67  95  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  93  72  95  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  71  97  71  98  74 /  10  10   0  10  10
TROY        69  96  71  96  73 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 030451
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING LATE THIS EVENING. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ONCE
AGAIN...WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS IN GEORGIA HAVE
TRIGGERED VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN COME TO AN END
TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DEWPOINTS AT THIS HOUR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH MIXING
CONTINUING AT A FEW LOCATIONS AND DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT OTHERS. THEREFORE...A FEW 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN BUT 60S ARE THE
MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
ALSO...THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA THIS EVENING WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS PRESENT FOR TROY,
EUFAULA, AND PHENIX CITY. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRY AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN. EVENING UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...A VFR FORECAST. A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE STILL ROTATING WESTWARD NEAR TOI...WITH ONE ROGUE
SHOWER TO THE NORTHEAST OF TOI/MGM. CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT
THE TERMINAL WAS EVEN LOWER THIS TIME OUT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
NO MENTION. OTHERWISE ...FEW-SCT CUMULUS NEAR THESE OUTFLOWS
MGM/TOI. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT ARE SIGNIFICANT. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.

GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  95  67  96  71 /   0  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  95  68  96  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  95  72  98  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  97  71  99  74 /   0  10   0  10  10
CALERA      67  94  67  95  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  93  72  95  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  71  97  71  98  74 /  10  10   0  10  10
TROY        69  96  71  96  73 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 030451
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING LATE THIS EVENING. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ONCE
AGAIN...WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS IN GEORGIA HAVE
TRIGGERED VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN COME TO AN END
TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DEWPOINTS AT THIS HOUR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH MIXING
CONTINUING AT A FEW LOCATIONS AND DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT OTHERS. THEREFORE...A FEW 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN BUT 60S ARE THE
MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
ALSO...THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA THIS EVENING WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS PRESENT FOR TROY,
EUFAULA, AND PHENIX CITY. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRY AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN. EVENING UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...A VFR FORECAST. A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE STILL ROTATING WESTWARD NEAR TOI...WITH ONE ROGUE
SHOWER TO THE NORTHEAST OF TOI/MGM. CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT
THE TERMINAL WAS EVEN LOWER THIS TIME OUT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
NO MENTION. OTHERWISE ...FEW-SCT CUMULUS NEAR THESE OUTFLOWS
MGM/TOI. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT ARE SIGNIFICANT. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.

GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  95  67  96  71 /   0  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  95  68  96  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  95  72  98  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  97  71  99  74 /   0  10   0  10  10
CALERA      67  94  67  95  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  93  72  95  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  71  97  71  98  74 /  10  10   0  10  10
TROY        69  96  71  96  73 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 030451
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING LATE THIS EVENING. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ONCE
AGAIN...WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS IN GEORGIA HAVE
TRIGGERED VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN COME TO AN END
TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DEWPOINTS AT THIS HOUR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH MIXING
CONTINUING AT A FEW LOCATIONS AND DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT OTHERS. THEREFORE...A FEW 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN BUT 60S ARE THE
MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
ALSO...THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA THIS EVENING WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS PRESENT FOR TROY,
EUFAULA, AND PHENIX CITY. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRY AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN. EVENING UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...A VFR FORECAST. A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE STILL ROTATING WESTWARD NEAR TOI...WITH ONE ROGUE
SHOWER TO THE NORTHEAST OF TOI/MGM. CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT
THE TERMINAL WAS EVEN LOWER THIS TIME OUT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
NO MENTION. OTHERWISE ...FEW-SCT CUMULUS NEAR THESE OUTFLOWS
MGM/TOI. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT ARE SIGNIFICANT. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.

GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  95  67  96  71 /   0  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  95  68  96  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  95  72  98  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  97  71  99  74 /   0  10   0  10  10
CALERA      67  94  67  95  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  93  72  95  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  71  97  71  98  74 /  10  10   0  10  10
TROY        69  96  71  96  73 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 030447
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030447
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030447
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030447
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 030324
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1024 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING LATE THIS EVENING. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ONCE
AGAIN...WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS IN GEORGIA HAVE
TRIGGERED VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN COME TO AN END
TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DEWPOINTS AT THIS HOUR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH MIXING
CONTINUING AT A FEW LOCATIONS AND DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT OTHERS. THEREFORE...A FEW 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN BUT 60S ARE THE
MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
ALSO...THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA THIS EVENING WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS PRESENT FOR TROY,
EUFAULA, AND PHENIX CITY. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRY AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN. EVENING UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...A VFR FORECAST. A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE ROTATING WESTWARD NEAR TOI...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT THE
TERMINAL WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME
CIRRUS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  95  67  96  71 /   0  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  95  68  96  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  95  72  98  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  97  71  99  74 /   0  10   0  10  10
CALERA      67  94  67  95  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  93  72  95  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  71  97  71  98  74 /  10  10   0  10  10
TROY        69  96  71  96  73 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 030324
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1024 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING LATE THIS EVENING. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ONCE
AGAIN...WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS IN GEORGIA HAVE
TRIGGERED VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN COME TO AN END
TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DEWPOINTS AT THIS HOUR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH MIXING
CONTINUING AT A FEW LOCATIONS AND DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT OTHERS. THEREFORE...A FEW 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN BUT 60S ARE THE
MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
ALSO...THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA THIS EVENING WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS PRESENT FOR TROY,
EUFAULA, AND PHENIX CITY. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRY AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN. EVENING UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...A VFR FORECAST. A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE ROTATING WESTWARD NEAR TOI...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT THE
TERMINAL WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME
CIRRUS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  95  67  96  71 /   0  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  95  68  96  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  95  72  98  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  97  71  99  74 /   0  10   0  10  10
CALERA      67  94  67  95  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  93  72  95  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  71  97  71  98  74 /  10  10   0  10  10
TROY        69  96  71  96  73 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 022330
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.

GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...A VFR FORECAST. A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE ROTATING WESTWARD NEAR TOI...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT THE
TERMINAL WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME
CIRRUS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  95  67  96  71 /   0  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    65  95  68  96  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  95  72  98  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  69  97  71  99  74 /   0  10   0  10  10
CALERA      66  94  67  95  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  93  72  95  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  70  97  71  98  74 /  10  10   0  10  10
TROY        70  96  71  96  73 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 022330
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.

GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...A VFR FORECAST. A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE ROTATING WESTWARD NEAR TOI...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT THE
TERMINAL WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME
CIRRUS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  95  67  96  71 /   0  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    65  95  68  96  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  95  72  98  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  69  97  71  99  74 /   0  10   0  10  10
CALERA      66  94  67  95  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  93  72  95  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  70  97  71  98  74 /  10  10   0  10  10
TROY        70  96  71  96  73 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 022330
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.

GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...A VFR FORECAST. A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE ROTATING WESTWARD NEAR TOI...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT THE
TERMINAL WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME
CIRRUS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  95  67  96  71 /   0  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    65  95  68  96  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  95  72  98  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  69  97  71  99  74 /   0  10   0  10  10
CALERA      66  94  67  95  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  93  72  95  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  70  97  71  98  74 /  10  10   0  10  10
TROY        70  96  71  96  73 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 022109
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE DONG EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY NOTICEABLY IN BOTH KLH RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. NHC HAS
GIVEN THIS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LIFTS THE SFC LOW UP TO THE NORTHEAST FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN GFS WITH SFC LOW...AND WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE WEAK SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
DAY. A TRAILING SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THRU MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDFALL TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING
AROUND 105 DEGREES. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY EXITS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY
...BUT KEEPING POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102-105 RANGE. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND
SLIDES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID WEEK...EVIDENT IN MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0
INCHES LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
...MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. BY WEEKS END...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES IN RISE INTO THE 102-105 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...SLIGHTLY LOWER BY THE WEEKEND WITH INDICES OF 99-103.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SAME FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED ISOLATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING CONVECTION TO
ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS...AND WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT VCTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY) THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DIURNAL WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS). GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  96  76 /  05  10  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  94  77 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      83  90  79  93  79 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  71  98  72 /  05  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  98  71  98  73 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  97  70  98  72 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  98  72  97  73 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 022109
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE DONG EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY NOTICEABLY IN BOTH KLH RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. NHC HAS
GIVEN THIS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LIFTS THE SFC LOW UP TO THE NORTHEAST FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN GFS WITH SFC LOW...AND WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE WEAK SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
DAY. A TRAILING SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THRU MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDFALL TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING
AROUND 105 DEGREES. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY EXITS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY
...BUT KEEPING POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102-105 RANGE. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND
SLIDES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID WEEK...EVIDENT IN MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0
INCHES LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
...MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. BY WEEKS END...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES IN RISE INTO THE 102-105 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...SLIGHTLY LOWER BY THE WEEKEND WITH INDICES OF 99-103.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SAME FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED ISOLATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING CONVECTION TO
ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS...AND WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT VCTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY) THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DIURNAL WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS). GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  96  76 /  05  10  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  94  77 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      83  90  79  93  79 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  71  98  72 /  05  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  98  71  98  73 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  97  70  98  72 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  98  72  97  73 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 022109
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE DONG EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY NOTICEABLY IN BOTH KLH RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. NHC HAS
GIVEN THIS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LIFTS THE SFC LOW UP TO THE NORTHEAST FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN GFS WITH SFC LOW...AND WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE WEAK SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
DAY. A TRAILING SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THRU MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDFALL TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING
AROUND 105 DEGREES. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY EXITS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY
...BUT KEEPING POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102-105 RANGE. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND
SLIDES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID WEEK...EVIDENT IN MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0
INCHES LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
...MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. BY WEEKS END...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES IN RISE INTO THE 102-105 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...SLIGHTLY LOWER BY THE WEEKEND WITH INDICES OF 99-103.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SAME FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED ISOLATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING CONVECTION TO
ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS...AND WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT VCTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY) THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DIURNAL WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS). GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  96  76 /  05  10  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  94  77 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      83  90  79  93  79 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  71  98  72 /  05  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  98  71  98  73 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  97  70  98  72 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  98  72  97  73 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 022109
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE DONG EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY NOTICEABLY IN BOTH KLH RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. NHC HAS
GIVEN THIS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LIFTS THE SFC LOW UP TO THE NORTHEAST FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN GFS WITH SFC LOW...AND WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE WEAK SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
DAY. A TRAILING SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THRU MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDFALL TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING
AROUND 105 DEGREES. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY EXITS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY
...BUT KEEPING POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102-105 RANGE. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND
SLIDES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID WEEK...EVIDENT IN MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0
INCHES LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
...MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. BY WEEKS END...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES IN RISE INTO THE 102-105 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...SLIGHTLY LOWER BY THE WEEKEND WITH INDICES OF 99-103.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SAME FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED ISOLATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING CONVECTION TO
ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS...AND WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT VCTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY) THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DIURNAL WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS). GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  96  76 /  05  10  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  94  77 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      83  90  79  93  79 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  71  98  72 /  05  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  98  71  98  73 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  97  70  98  72 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  98  72  97  73 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 022109
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE DONG EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY NOTICEABLY IN BOTH KLH RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. NHC HAS
GIVEN THIS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LIFTS THE SFC LOW UP TO THE NORTHEAST FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN GFS WITH SFC LOW...AND WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE WEAK SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
DAY. A TRAILING SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THRU MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDFALL TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING
AROUND 105 DEGREES. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY EXITS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY
...BUT KEEPING POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102-105 RANGE. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND
SLIDES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID WEEK...EVIDENT IN MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0
INCHES LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
...MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. BY WEEKS END...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES IN RISE INTO THE 102-105 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...SLIGHTLY LOWER BY THE WEEKEND WITH INDICES OF 99-103.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SAME FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED ISOLATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING CONVECTION TO
ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS...AND WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT VCTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY) THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DIURNAL WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS). GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  96  76 /  05  10  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  94  77 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      83  90  79  93  79 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  71  98  72 /  05  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  98  71  98  73 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  97  70  98  72 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  98  72  97  73 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 022109 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY NOTICEABLY IN BOTH KLH RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. NHC HAS
GIVEN THIS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LIFTS THE SFC LOW UP TO THE NORTHEAST FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN GFS WITH SFC LOW...AND WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE WEAK SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
DAY. A TRAILING SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THRU MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDFALL TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING
AROUND 105 DEGREES. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY EXITS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY
...BUT KEEPING POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102-105 RANGE. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND
SLIDES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID WEEK...EVIDENT IN MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0
INCHES LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
...MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. BY WEEKS END...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES IN RISE INTO THE 102-105 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...SLIGHTLY LOWER BY THE WEEKEND WITH INDICES OF 99-103.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SAME FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED ISOLATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING CONVECTION TO
ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS...AND WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT VCTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY) THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DIURNAL WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS). GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  96  76 /  05  10  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  94  77 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      83  90  79  93  79 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  71  98  72 /  05  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  98  71  98  73 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  97  70  98  72 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  98  72  97  73 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 022109 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY NOTICEABLY IN BOTH KLH RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. NHC HAS
GIVEN THIS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LIFTS THE SFC LOW UP TO THE NORTHEAST FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN GFS WITH SFC LOW...AND WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE WEAK SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
DAY. A TRAILING SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THRU MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDFALL TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING
AROUND 105 DEGREES. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY EXITS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY
...BUT KEEPING POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102-105 RANGE. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND
SLIDES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID WEEK...EVIDENT IN MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0
INCHES LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
...MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. BY WEEKS END...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES IN RISE INTO THE 102-105 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...SLIGHTLY LOWER BY THE WEEKEND WITH INDICES OF 99-103.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SAME FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED ISOLATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING CONVECTION TO
ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS...AND WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT VCTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY) THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DIURNAL WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS). GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  96  76 /  05  10  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  94  77 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      83  90  79  93  79 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  71  98  72 /  05  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  98  71  98  73 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  97  70  98  72 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  98  72  97  73 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 022109 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY NOTICEABLY IN BOTH KLH RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. NHC HAS
GIVEN THIS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LIFTS THE SFC LOW UP TO THE NORTHEAST FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN GFS WITH SFC LOW...AND WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE WEAK SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
DAY. A TRAILING SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THRU MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDFALL TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING
AROUND 105 DEGREES. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY EXITS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY
...BUT KEEPING POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102-105 RANGE. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND
SLIDES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID WEEK...EVIDENT IN MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0
INCHES LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
...MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. BY WEEKS END...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES IN RISE INTO THE 102-105 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...SLIGHTLY LOWER BY THE WEEKEND WITH INDICES OF 99-103.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SAME FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED ISOLATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING CONVECTION TO
ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS...AND WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT VCTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY) THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DIURNAL WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS). GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  96  76 /  05  10  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  94  77 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      83  90  79  93  79 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  71  98  72 /  05  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  98  71  98  73 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  97  70  98  72 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  98  72  97  73 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 022109 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY NOTICEABLY IN BOTH KLH RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. NHC HAS
GIVEN THIS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LIFTS THE SFC LOW UP TO THE NORTHEAST FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN GFS WITH SFC LOW...AND WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE WEAK SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
DAY. A TRAILING SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THRU MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDFALL TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING
AROUND 105 DEGREES. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY EXITS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY
...BUT KEEPING POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102-105 RANGE. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND
SLIDES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID WEEK...EVIDENT IN MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0
INCHES LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
...MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. BY WEEKS END...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES IN RISE INTO THE 102-105 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...SLIGHTLY LOWER BY THE WEEKEND WITH INDICES OF 99-103.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SAME FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED ISOLATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING CONVECTION TO
ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS...AND WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT VCTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY) THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DIURNAL WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS). GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  96  76 /  05  10  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  94  77 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      83  90  79  93  79 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  71  98  72 /  05  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  98  71  98  73 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  97  70  98  72 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  98  72  97  73 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 022109 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY NOTICEABLY IN BOTH KLH RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. NHC HAS
GIVEN THIS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LIFTS THE SFC LOW UP TO THE NORTHEAST FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN GFS WITH SFC LOW...AND WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE WEAK SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
DAY. A TRAILING SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THRU MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDFALL TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING
AROUND 105 DEGREES. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY EXITS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY
...BUT KEEPING POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102-105 RANGE. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND
SLIDES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID WEEK...EVIDENT IN MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0
INCHES LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
...MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. BY WEEKS END...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES IN RISE INTO THE 102-105 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...SLIGHTLY LOWER BY THE WEEKEND WITH INDICES OF 99-103.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SAME FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED ISOLATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING CONVECTION TO
ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS...AND WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT VCTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY) THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DIURNAL WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS). GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  96  76 /  05  10  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  94  77 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      83  90  79  93  79 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  71  98  72 /  05  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  98  71  98  73 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  97  70  98  72 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  98  72  97  73 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 021957
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.

GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ABNORMALLY DRY SUMMER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
PREDOMINANTLY WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING BR TOMORROW AT TOI...WHERE MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS ALSO
ANOMALOUSLY OUT OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMPASS WITH NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT WINDS CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

02


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021957
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.

GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ABNORMALLY DRY SUMMER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
PREDOMINANTLY WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING BR TOMORROW AT TOI...WHERE MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS ALSO
ANOMALOUSLY OUT OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMPASS WITH NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT WINDS CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

02


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021910
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  95  70  97 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        67  95  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      65  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  64  93  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   65  92  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    63  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021910
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  95  70  97 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        67  95  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      65  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  64  93  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   65  92  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    63  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021756
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ABNORMALLY DRY SUMMER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
PREDOMINANTLY WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING BR TOMORROW AT TOI...WHERE MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS ALSO
ANOMALOUSLY OUT OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMPASS WITH NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT WINDS CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021728
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021728
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021728
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021728
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021532 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 604 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021532 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 604 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021532 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 604 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021532 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 604 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021200
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
700 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...1200Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON TSTMS.
EXPECT LESS CONVECTION TODAY THEN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXCEPT OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING THEN ON SITE AT ANY OF OUR
TAF LOCATIONS. /08


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
WAVE...APPARENT IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS WHICH
HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM
A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS
COUNTIES. OUR SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS
CENTER IN WESTERN TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODELS PROJECT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL
OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700 AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH
A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND
105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  96  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  97  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  97  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  98  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021200
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
700 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...1200Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON TSTMS.
EXPECT LESS CONVECTION TODAY THEN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXCEPT OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING THEN ON SITE AT ANY OF OUR
TAF LOCATIONS. /08


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
WAVE...APPARENT IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS WHICH
HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM
A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS
COUNTIES. OUR SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS
CENTER IN WESTERN TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODELS PROJECT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL
OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700 AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH
A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND
105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  96  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  97  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  97  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  98  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 021200
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
700 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...1200Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON TSTMS.
EXPECT LESS CONVECTION TODAY THEN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXCEPT OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING THEN ON SITE AT ANY OF OUR
TAF LOCATIONS. /08


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
WAVE...APPARENT IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS WHICH
HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM
A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS
COUNTIES. OUR SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS
CENTER IN WESTERN TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODELS PROJECT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL
OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700 AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH
A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND
105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  96  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  97  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  97  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  98  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021200
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
700 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...1200Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND AFTERNOON TSTMS.
EXPECT LESS CONVECTION TODAY THEN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXCEPT OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING THEN ON SITE AT ANY OF OUR
TAF LOCATIONS. /08


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
WAVE...APPARENT IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS WHICH
HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM
A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS
COUNTIES. OUR SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS
CENTER IN WESTERN TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODELS PROJECT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL
OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700 AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH
A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND
105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  96  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  97  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  97  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  98  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 021137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS BECOMING CALM BY 01Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS BECOMING CALM BY 01Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS BECOMING CALM BY 01Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS BECOMING CALM BY 01Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021109 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
608 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
WAVE...APPARENT IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS WHICH
HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM
A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS
COUNTIES. OUR SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS
CENTER IN WESTERN TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODELS PROJECT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL
OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700 AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH
A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND
105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  94  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  96  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  96  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  96  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/16



000
FXUS64 KMOB 021109 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
608 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
WAVE...APPARENT IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS WHICH
HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM
A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS
COUNTIES. OUR SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS
CENTER IN WESTERN TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODELS PROJECT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL
OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700 AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH
A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND
105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  94  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  96  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  96  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  96  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/16



000
FXUS64 KMOB 021109 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
608 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
WAVE...APPARENT IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS WHICH
HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM
A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS
COUNTIES. OUR SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS
CENTER IN WESTERN TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODELS PROJECT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL
OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700 AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH
A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND
105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  94  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  96  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  96  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  96  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021109 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
608 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
WAVE...APPARENT IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS WHICH
HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM
A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS
COUNTIES. OUR SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS
CENTER IN WESTERN TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODELS PROJECT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL
OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700 AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH
A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND
105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  94  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  96  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  96  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  96  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/16




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021104
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
604 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 140 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ABOVE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST TX AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE/DRY SLOT WAS PUSHING NORTHWARD THRU AZ
INTO NV/UT. THE 06Z SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE
OZARK PLATEAU EAST INTO KY. A POCKET OF NOTICEABLY LOWER DEW POINTS
WAS FOUND ALONG THE OH VALLEY INTO KY/TN. THIS COINCIDES WITH LOWER
PWS IN THIS AREA WHICH ARE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES DESPITE SEASONABLY OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLY
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE L-M90S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIP
INTO THE U50S-L60S IN OUR TN/NERN AL VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH L-M60S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. THEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION.

AS WE GO INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THE SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHORTWAVES
TRACK FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. THE NAM
DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXES IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WHICH TAKE A ROUTE FURTHER S THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH BY MIDWEEK AS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS FURTHER
NORTH. THE NAM VERSION OF THE INITIAL WAVE INVOKES PRECIP IN THE
MODELS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID S AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH
COULD ARRIVE HERE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
ANY PRECIP MORE SPOTTY AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY HEATING. SINCE THE
ORIGIN OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SEEM TO HAVE SOME
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THESE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW TO MID CHC RANGE AT THIS
POINT. THE 00Z GFS MODEL APPEARS TO TRACK THE WAVE TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING A COLD FRONT THIS FAR S. THE NEXT SET OF WAVES LATE THIS WEEK
PRODUCE DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW AND DIG THE TROF FURTHER SE ALONG WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED
GUIDANCE CLOSELY, WE HAVE GONE WITH A MORE "MIDDLE OF THE ROAD"
APPROACH TO POPS STAYING IN THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR THU-FRI-SAT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021104
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
604 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 140 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ABOVE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST TX AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE/DRY SLOT WAS PUSHING NORTHWARD THRU AZ
INTO NV/UT. THE 06Z SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE
OZARK PLATEAU EAST INTO KY. A POCKET OF NOTICEABLY LOWER DEW POINTS
WAS FOUND ALONG THE OH VALLEY INTO KY/TN. THIS COINCIDES WITH LOWER
PWS IN THIS AREA WHICH ARE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES DESPITE SEASONABLY OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLY
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE L-M90S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIP
INTO THE U50S-L60S IN OUR TN/NERN AL VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH L-M60S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. THEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION.

AS WE GO INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THE SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHORTWAVES
TRACK FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. THE NAM
DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXES IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WHICH TAKE A ROUTE FURTHER S THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH BY MIDWEEK AS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS FURTHER
NORTH. THE NAM VERSION OF THE INITIAL WAVE INVOKES PRECIP IN THE
MODELS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID S AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH
COULD ARRIVE HERE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
ANY PRECIP MORE SPOTTY AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY HEATING. SINCE THE
ORIGIN OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SEEM TO HAVE SOME
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THESE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW TO MID CHC RANGE AT THIS
POINT. THE 00Z GFS MODEL APPEARS TO TRACK THE WAVE TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING A COLD FRONT THIS FAR S. THE NEXT SET OF WAVES LATE THIS WEEK
PRODUCE DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW AND DIG THE TROF FURTHER SE ALONG WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED
GUIDANCE CLOSELY, WE HAVE GONE WITH A MORE "MIDDLE OF THE ROAD"
APPROACH TO POPS STAYING IN THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR THU-FRI-SAT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 021008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY AFTERNOON
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MI-LEVEL WAVE...APPARENT
IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS...WHICH HAS BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM A
LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS COUNTIES. OUR
SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS CENTER IN WESTERN
TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS PROJECT
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES OF MOBILE
AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.
WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST
OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700
AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES
PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S
NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND 105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  94  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  96  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  96  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  96  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY AFTERNOON
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MI-LEVEL WAVE...APPARENT
IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS...WHICH HAS BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM A
LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS COUNTIES. OUR
SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS CENTER IN WESTERN
TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS PROJECT
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES OF MOBILE
AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.
WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST
OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700
AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES
PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S
NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND 105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  94  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  96  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  96  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  96  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/16



000
FXUS64 KMOB 021008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY AFTERNOON
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MI-LEVEL WAVE...APPARENT
IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS...WHICH HAS BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM A
LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS COUNTIES. OUR
SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS CENTER IN WESTERN
TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS PROJECT
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES OF MOBILE
AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.
WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST
OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700
AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES
PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S
NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND 105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  94  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  96  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  96  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  96  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY AFTERNOON
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MI-LEVEL WAVE...APPARENT
IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS...WHICH HAS BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM A
LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS COUNTIES. OUR
SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS CENTER IN WESTERN
TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS PROJECT
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES OF MOBILE
AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.
WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST
OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700
AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES
PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S
NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND 105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  94  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  96  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  96  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  96  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY AFTERNOON
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MI-LEVEL WAVE...APPARENT
IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS...WHICH HAS BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM A
LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS COUNTIES. OUR
SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS CENTER IN WESTERN
TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS PROJECT
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES OF MOBILE
AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.
WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST
OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700
AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES
PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S
NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND 105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  94  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  96  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  96  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  96  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY AFTERNOON
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MI-LEVEL WAVE...APPARENT
IN THE 850 TO 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HT FIELDS...WHICH HAS BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS LAYER PWAT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM A
LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
AND TO AS LOW AS AN INCH IN OUR MORE NORTHERN AL AND MS COUNTIES. OUR
SE MS AND SW AL COUNTIES LIE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM ITS CENTER IN WESTERN
TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS PROJECT
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES OF MOBILE
AND BALDWIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TAP INTO AFTERNOON SB CAPES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.
WENT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS AS WELL OVER OUR AL COUNTIES EAST
OF I-65 WHOSE WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ALOFT (500 MB AND ABOVE)...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOWS AT THE 700
AND 850 MB LEVELS...DUE TO THEIR SUSCEPTIBILITY TO MINOR SHORTWAVES
PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT JUST SUCH A FEATURE BRUSHING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S
NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES GENERALLY CLIMB TO NEAR 100...WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING AROUND 105. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THEN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE LONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWEEPS AROUND AN UPPER LOWER NEAR HUDSON
BAY...IT PUSHES SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE NE FL OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
FORECAST...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
AREAS...SOME MOISTURE MOVES INLAND...ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA ALONG THE
COAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
REMAINS A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTERS THE WESTERN
RIDGE MORE...WITH SOME EASTWARD SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM MONDAY
AS A RESULT....AND WITH THAT TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY RESULT. A
GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INLAND AGAIN TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE
GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. EVEN SO...WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT...POPS STILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE
SHORT TERM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND
RE-BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE GULF OF MEX RE-ORGANIZES...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND...AND WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...RESULT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WORKS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BUILD AND SHARPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE...ALONG
WITH SHIFTING IT EASTWARD A BIT. THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SEES
SOME SHIFTING AND DIMPLING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS (SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING INTO THE EVENING)...WITH TEMPS EASING DOWNWARD TOWARDS
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS IN COOL AIR FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND DRIES THE FA
OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS...THOUGH...WITH AROUND SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR THE COAST.
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  94  74  94 /  20  05  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   93  75  93  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      93  78  91  79  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   98  68  96  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  96  70  98  71  97 /  10  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      98  67  96  70  99 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   96  71  96  72  95 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/16




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020751
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT TOI AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CLOUDS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA BECOMES DRIER AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF TOI/MGM. A FEW 4-8K FT CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SWING AROUND TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...5-8KTS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020751
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT TOI AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CLOUDS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA BECOMES DRIER AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF TOI/MGM. A FEW 4-8K FT CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SWING AROUND TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...5-8KTS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020751
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT TOI AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CLOUDS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA BECOMES DRIER AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF TOI/MGM. A FEW 4-8K FT CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SWING AROUND TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...5-8KTS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020751
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT TOI AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CLOUDS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA BECOMES DRIER AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF TOI/MGM. A FEW 4-8K FT CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SWING AROUND TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...5-8KTS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020751
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT TOI AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CLOUDS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA BECOMES DRIER AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF TOI/MGM. A FEW 4-8K FT CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SWING AROUND TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...5-8KTS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020640
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
140 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ABOVE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST TX AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE/DRY SLOT WAS PUSHING NORTHWARD THRU AZ
INTO NV/UT. THE 06Z SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE
OZARK PLATEAU EAST INTO KY. A POCKET OF NOTICEABLY LOWER DEW POINTS
WAS FOUND ALONG THE OH VALLEY INTO KY/TN. THIS COINCIDES WITH LOWER
PWS IN THIS AREA WHICH ARE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES DESPITE SEASONABLY OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLY
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE L-M90S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIP
INTO THE U50S-L60S IN OUR TN/NERN AL VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH L-M60S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. THEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION.

AS WE GO INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THE SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHORTWAVES
TRACK FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. THE NAM
DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXES IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WHICH TAKE A ROUTE FURTHER S THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH BY MIDWEEK AS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS FURTHER
NORTH. THE NAM VERSION OF THE INITIAL WAVE INVOKES PRECIP IN THE
MODELS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID S AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH
COULD ARRIVE HERE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
ANY PRECIP MORE SPOTTY AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY HEATING. SINCE THE
ORIGIN OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SEEM TO HAVE SOME
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THESE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW TO MID CHC RANGE AT THIS
POINT. THE 00Z GFS MODEL APPEARS TO TRACK THE WAVE TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING A COLD FRONT THIS FAR S. THE NEXT SET OF WAVES LATE THIS WEEK
PRODUCE DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW AND DIG THE TROF FURTHER SE ALONG WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED
GUIDANCE CLOSELY, WE HAVE GONE WITH A MORE "MIDDLE OF THE ROAD"
APPROACH TO POPS STAYING IN THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR THU-FRI-SAT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  96  68  97 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        64  95  66  96 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      66  93  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  58  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   62  92  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    57  92  60  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020640
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
140 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ABOVE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST TX AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE/DRY SLOT WAS PUSHING NORTHWARD THRU AZ
INTO NV/UT. THE 06Z SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE
OZARK PLATEAU EAST INTO KY. A POCKET OF NOTICEABLY LOWER DEW POINTS
WAS FOUND ALONG THE OH VALLEY INTO KY/TN. THIS COINCIDES WITH LOWER
PWS IN THIS AREA WHICH ARE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES DESPITE SEASONABLY OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLY
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE L-M90S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIP
INTO THE U50S-L60S IN OUR TN/NERN AL VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH L-M60S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. THEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION.

AS WE GO INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THE SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHORTWAVES
TRACK FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. THE NAM
DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXES IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WHICH TAKE A ROUTE FURTHER S THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH BY MIDWEEK AS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS FURTHER
NORTH. THE NAM VERSION OF THE INITIAL WAVE INVOKES PRECIP IN THE
MODELS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID S AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH
COULD ARRIVE HERE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
ANY PRECIP MORE SPOTTY AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY HEATING. SINCE THE
ORIGIN OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SEEM TO HAVE SOME
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THESE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW TO MID CHC RANGE AT THIS
POINT. THE 00Z GFS MODEL APPEARS TO TRACK THE WAVE TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING A COLD FRONT THIS FAR S. THE NEXT SET OF WAVES LATE THIS WEEK
PRODUCE DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW AND DIG THE TROF FURTHER SE ALONG WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED
GUIDANCE CLOSELY, WE HAVE GONE WITH A MORE "MIDDLE OF THE ROAD"
APPROACH TO POPS STAYING IN THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR THU-FRI-SAT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  96  68  97 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        64  95  66  96 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      66  93  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  58  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   62  92  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    57  92  60  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020530
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 918 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AT 915 PM TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NWRN AL TO THE
LOW 70S IN NERN AL. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STLT
SHOWS A FEW CI CLOUDS...CAUGHT UP IN NW FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SINCE THE 00Z U/A SOUNDING FROM OHX/BMX
ARE FAIRLY DRY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN OR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020530
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 918 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AT 915 PM TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NWRN AL TO THE
LOW 70S IN NERN AL. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STLT
SHOWS A FEW CI CLOUDS...CAUGHT UP IN NW FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SINCE THE 00Z U/A SOUNDING FROM OHX/BMX
ARE FAIRLY DRY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN OR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020418
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1118 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MUGGY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHILE THERE ARE A FEW LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS STILL
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT THROUGH
THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S. MOST SHOWERS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS
EVENING AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT TOI AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CLOUDS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA BECOMES DRIER AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF TOI/MGM. A FEW 4-8K FT CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SWING AROUND TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...5-8KTS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020418
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1118 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MUGGY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHILE THERE ARE A FEW LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS STILL
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT THROUGH
THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S. MOST SHOWERS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS
EVENING AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT TOI AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CLOUDS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA BECOMES DRIER AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF TOI/MGM. A FEW 4-8K FT CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SWING AROUND TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...5-8KTS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020356
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1056 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORE
CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH FLORIDA LINE HAVE
PERSISTED THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AS DEPICTED BY
NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT A
LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO UPDATED TO END ALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING
AS FORECAST. UPDATES SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  05  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  20  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 020356
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1056 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORE
CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH FLORIDA LINE HAVE
PERSISTED THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AS DEPICTED BY
NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT A
LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO UPDATED TO END ALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING
AS FORECAST. UPDATES SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  05  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  20  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020356
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1056 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORE
CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH FLORIDA LINE HAVE
PERSISTED THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AS DEPICTED BY
NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT A
LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO UPDATED TO END ALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING
AS FORECAST. UPDATES SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  05  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  20  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020355 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1055 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AVIATION...
02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORE
CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH FLORIDA LINE HAVE
PERSISTED THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AS DEPICTED BY
NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT A
LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO UPDATED TO END ALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING
AS FORECAST. UPDATES SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  05  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  20  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 020355 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1055 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AVIATION...
02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORE
CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH FLORIDA LINE HAVE
PERSISTED THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AS DEPICTED BY
NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT A
LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO UPDATED TO END ALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING
AS FORECAST. UPDATES SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  05  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  20  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1051 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MUGGY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHILE THERE ARE A FEW LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS STILL
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT THROUGH
THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S. MOST SHOWERS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS
EVENING AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TOI APPEARS THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH ANY ISSUES THIS PERIOD. ALL
OTHER SITES VFR. MENTIONED VCTS AND TEMPO TS FROM 00-02Z AS
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AREA IS BEING IMPACTED AS YESTERDAY FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR AS MGM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
STORMS/CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXED SUFFICIENTLY IN MOST SPOTS TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. WILL MONITOR TOI AS THEY RECEIVED A GOOD
DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY AFFECT GROUND HUMIDITY.

WINDS LIGHTEN OFF OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 6-9KTS BY 15Z OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK TOWARD A NORTH
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1051 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MUGGY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHILE THERE ARE A FEW LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS STILL
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT THROUGH
THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S. MOST SHOWERS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS
EVENING AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TOI APPEARS THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH ANY ISSUES THIS PERIOD. ALL
OTHER SITES VFR. MENTIONED VCTS AND TEMPO TS FROM 00-02Z AS
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AREA IS BEING IMPACTED AS YESTERDAY FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR AS MGM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
STORMS/CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXED SUFFICIENTLY IN MOST SPOTS TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. WILL MONITOR TOI AS THEY RECEIVED A GOOD
DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY AFFECT GROUND HUMIDITY.

WINDS LIGHTEN OFF OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 6-9KTS BY 15Z OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK TOWARD A NORTH
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1051 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MUGGY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHILE THERE ARE A FEW LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS STILL
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT THROUGH
THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S. MOST SHOWERS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS
EVENING AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TOI APPEARS THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH ANY ISSUES THIS PERIOD. ALL
OTHER SITES VFR. MENTIONED VCTS AND TEMPO TS FROM 00-02Z AS
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AREA IS BEING IMPACTED AS YESTERDAY FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR AS MGM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
STORMS/CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXED SUFFICIENTLY IN MOST SPOTS TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. WILL MONITOR TOI AS THEY RECEIVED A GOOD
DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY AFFECT GROUND HUMIDITY.

WINDS LIGHTEN OFF OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 6-9KTS BY 15Z OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK TOWARD A NORTH
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1051 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MUGGY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHILE THERE ARE A FEW LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS STILL
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT THROUGH
THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S. MOST SHOWERS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS
EVENING AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TOI APPEARS THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH ANY ISSUES THIS PERIOD. ALL
OTHER SITES VFR. MENTIONED VCTS AND TEMPO TS FROM 00-02Z AS
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AREA IS BEING IMPACTED AS YESTERDAY FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR AS MGM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
STORMS/CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXED SUFFICIENTLY IN MOST SPOTS TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. WILL MONITOR TOI AS THEY RECEIVED A GOOD
DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY AFFECT GROUND HUMIDITY.

WINDS LIGHTEN OFF OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 6-9KTS BY 15Z OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK TOWARD A NORTH
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020257 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
957 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH FLORIDA LINE HAVE
PERSISTED THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AS DEPICTED BY
NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT A
LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO UPDATED TO END ALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING
AS FORECAST. UPDATES SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

AVIATION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WITH NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY.
MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY) THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 12/DS

MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  05  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  20  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020257 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
957 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH FLORIDA LINE HAVE
PERSISTED THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AS DEPICTED BY
NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT A
LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO UPDATED TO END ALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING
AS FORECAST. UPDATES SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

AVIATION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WITH NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY.
MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY) THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 12/DS

MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  05  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  20  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020257 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
957 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH FLORIDA LINE HAVE
PERSISTED THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AS DEPICTED BY
NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT A
LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO UPDATED TO END ALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING
AS FORECAST. UPDATES SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

AVIATION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WITH NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY.
MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY) THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 12/DS

MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  05  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  20  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020257 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
957 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH FLORIDA LINE HAVE
PERSISTED THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AS DEPICTED BY
NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT A
LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO UPDATED TO END ALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING
AS FORECAST. UPDATES SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

AVIATION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WITH NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY.
MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY) THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 12/DS

MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  05  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  20  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020257 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
957 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH FLORIDA LINE HAVE
PERSISTED THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AS DEPICTED BY
NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT A
LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO UPDATED TO END ALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING
AS FORECAST. UPDATES SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

AVIATION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WITH NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY.
MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY) THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 12/DS

MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  05  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  20  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 915 PM TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NWRN AL TO THE
LOW 70S IN NERN AL. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STLT
SHOWS A FEW CI CLOUDS...CAUGHT UP IN NW FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SINCE THE 00Z U/A SOUNDING FROM OHX/BMX
ARE FAIRLY DRY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN OR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY SEWD INTO N CNTRL AL LATER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SUN.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 915 PM TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NWRN AL TO THE
LOW 70S IN NERN AL. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STLT
SHOWS A FEW CI CLOUDS...CAUGHT UP IN NW FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SINCE THE 00Z U/A SOUNDING FROM OHX/BMX
ARE FAIRLY DRY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN OR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY SEWD INTO N CNTRL AL LATER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SUN.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 915 PM TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NWRN AL TO THE
LOW 70S IN NERN AL. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STLT
SHOWS A FEW CI CLOUDS...CAUGHT UP IN NW FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SINCE THE 00Z U/A SOUNDING FROM OHX/BMX
ARE FAIRLY DRY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN OR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY SEWD INTO N CNTRL AL LATER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SUN.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 915 PM TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NWRN AL TO THE
LOW 70S IN NERN AL. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STLT
SHOWS A FEW CI CLOUDS...CAUGHT UP IN NW FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SINCE THE 00Z U/A SOUNDING FROM OHX/BMX
ARE FAIRLY DRY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN OR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY SEWD INTO N CNTRL AL LATER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SUN.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020218
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 915 PM TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NWRN AL TO THE
LOW 70S IN NERN AL. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STLT
SHOWS A FEW CI CLOUDS...CAUGHT UP IN NW FLOW...WILL MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SINCE THE 00Z U/A SOUNDING FROM OHX/BMX
ARE FAIRLY DRY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN OR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY SEWD INTO N CNTRL AL LATER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SUN.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020218
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 915 PM TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NWRN AL TO THE
LOW 70S IN NERN AL. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STLT
SHOWS A FEW CI CLOUDS...CAUGHT UP IN NW FLOW...WILL MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SINCE THE 00Z U/A SOUNDING FROM OHX/BMX
ARE FAIRLY DRY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN OR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY SEWD INTO N CNTRL AL LATER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SUN.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020218
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 915 PM TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NWRN AL TO THE
LOW 70S IN NERN AL. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STLT
SHOWS A FEW CI CLOUDS...CAUGHT UP IN NW FLOW...WILL MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SINCE THE 00Z U/A SOUNDING FROM OHX/BMX
ARE FAIRLY DRY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN OR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY SEWD INTO N CNTRL AL LATER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SUN.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020218
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 915 PM TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NWRN AL TO THE
LOW 70S IN NERN AL. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STLT
SHOWS A FEW CI CLOUDS...CAUGHT UP IN NW FLOW...WILL MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SINCE THE 00Z U/A SOUNDING FROM OHX/BMX
ARE FAIRLY DRY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN OR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY SEWD INTO N CNTRL AL LATER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SUN.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020218
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 915 PM TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NWRN AL TO THE
LOW 70S IN NERN AL. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STLT
SHOWS A FEW CI CLOUDS...CAUGHT UP IN NW FLOW...WILL MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SINCE THE 00Z U/A SOUNDING FROM OHX/BMX
ARE FAIRLY DRY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN OR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY SEWD INTO N CNTRL AL LATER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SUN.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020011
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
711 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...EVEN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO LEVELS AS WELL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT.
THIS WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO START CREEPING UP AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST STARTING AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOME PARTS COULD BE PUSHING INTO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THAT
POSSIBILITY INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM FORECAST (MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK)
FEATURES CLIMO LEVEL POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TOI APPEARS THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH ANY ISSUES THIS PERIOD. ALL
OTHER SITES VFR. MENTIONED VCTS AND TEMPO TS FROM 00-02Z AS
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AREA IS BEING IMPACTED AS YESTERDAY FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR AS MGM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
STORMS/CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXED SUFFICIENTLY IN MOST SPOTS TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. WILL MONITOR TOI AS THEY RECEIVED A GOOD
DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY AFFECT GROUND HUMIDITY.

WINDS LIGHTEN OFF OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 6-9KTS BY 15Z OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK TOWARD A NORTH
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020011
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
711 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...EVEN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO LEVELS AS WELL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT.
THIS WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO START CREEPING UP AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST STARTING AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOME PARTS COULD BE PUSHING INTO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THAT
POSSIBILITY INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM FORECAST (MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK)
FEATURES CLIMO LEVEL POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TOI APPEARS THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH ANY ISSUES THIS PERIOD. ALL
OTHER SITES VFR. MENTIONED VCTS AND TEMPO TS FROM 00-02Z AS
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AREA IS BEING IMPACTED AS YESTERDAY FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR AS MGM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
STORMS/CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXED SUFFICIENTLY IN MOST SPOTS TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. WILL MONITOR TOI AS THEY RECEIVED A GOOD
DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY AFFECT GROUND HUMIDITY.

WINDS LIGHTEN OFF OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 6-9KTS BY 15Z OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK TOWARD A NORTH
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020011
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
711 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...EVEN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO LEVELS AS WELL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT.
THIS WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO START CREEPING UP AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST STARTING AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOME PARTS COULD BE PUSHING INTO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THAT
POSSIBILITY INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM FORECAST (MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK)
FEATURES CLIMO LEVEL POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TOI APPEARS THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH ANY ISSUES THIS PERIOD. ALL
OTHER SITES VFR. MENTIONED VCTS AND TEMPO TS FROM 00-02Z AS
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AREA IS BEING IMPACTED AS YESTERDAY FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR AS MGM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
STORMS/CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXED SUFFICIENTLY IN MOST SPOTS TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. WILL MONITOR TOI AS THEY RECEIVED A GOOD
DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY AFFECT GROUND HUMIDITY.

WINDS LIGHTEN OFF OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 6-9KTS BY 15Z OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK TOWARD A NORTH
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012325 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY SEWD INTO N CNTRL AL LATER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SUN.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012325 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY SEWD INTO N CNTRL AL LATER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SUN.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012325 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY SEWD INTO N CNTRL AL LATER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SUN.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 012114
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WITH NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY.
MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY) THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  30  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  40  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  10  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 012114
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WITH NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY.
MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY) THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  30  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  40  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  10  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 012114
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WITH NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY.
MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY) THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  30  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  40  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  10  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 012114
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WITH NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY.
MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY) THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  30  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  40  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  10  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 012114
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WITH NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY.
MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY) THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  30  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  40  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  10  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 012114
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
414 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO THE COAST (OR JUST INLAND) DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REBOUND SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER)TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND THEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY]...THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EAST OF I-65...PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AS HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 99-104 RANGE ON MONDAY. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...MORE MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEGIN SURGING BACK INTO THE MID 70S
AND RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE...
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S BY WEEKS END. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...IN THE 99-103 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WITH NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY.
MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT NIGHT AND
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY) THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).
GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  94  74  96  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  76  93  77 /  30  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  90  79  93  80 /  40  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  96  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  97  70  98  73 /  10  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      71  96  68  97  72 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   74  94  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 012052
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS LESS THAN 5KT WITH CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    65  96  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        65  95  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      61  93  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  60  92  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   66  94  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    56  92  58  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012052
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY INCREASING FOR THE TN VALLEY. THEN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
PERIODICALLY THIS SUMMER...A POTENTIAL TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
RAISED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TN VALLEY REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
MANGED TO FORM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL ALSO RELAX AS MIXING RAPIDLY DECREASES. DUE TO THE LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE AREA...FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (AS LAST NIGHT) IS
UNLIKELY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PERHAPS SUSCEPTIBLE WOULD BE THE PAINT
ROCK VALLEY WHERE EFFICIENT COOL AIR DRAINAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NONE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND CROSSES THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAYS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WHEN VALUES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A 100F
TEMPERATURE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IN A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY
HOTTER LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BY TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND BRING HIGHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY REACH
JUST OVER 100F IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...ANY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD).

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...POPS/WX WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETAINED FOR WED WITH TIMING TO BE REFINED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...THE VORT MAX WILL LARGELY PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO
GENERATE DOWNSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA LIKELY ON WED. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH MODEL-BLENDED BOUNDARY LYR DEW POINTS
YIELDS ARND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LOWER FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROP COLUMN. FLOW IS ALSO UNIDIRECTIONAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY MID-LVL
AIR AND STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...A TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWRLY UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BRING PERHAPS REPEATED
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING
IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WOULD GENERALLY BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES....STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS LESS THAN 5KT WITH CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    65  96  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        65  95  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      61  93  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  60  92  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   66  94  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    56  92  58  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 012024
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
324 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...EVEN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO LEVELS AS WELL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT.
THIS WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO START CREEPING UP AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST STARTING AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOME PARTS COULD BE PUSHING INTO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THAT
POSSIBILITY INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM FORECAST (MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK)
FEATURES CLIMO LEVEL POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS.

88


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 012024
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
324 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...EVEN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO LEVELS AS WELL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT.
THIS WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO START CREEPING UP AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST STARTING AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOME PARTS COULD BE PUSHING INTO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THAT
POSSIBILITY INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM FORECAST (MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK)
FEATURES CLIMO LEVEL POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS.

88


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011752
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011752
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011726
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING, AFTER
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK, MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
IS STILL ANOMALOUSLY LOW (PWATS ARE 0.6-0.8 INCHES, OR 40-50% OF
NORMAL) THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
IN PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. OTHERWISE, REGIONAL WEATHER IS STILL
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS UNDER NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE LOWER
(EVEN MIDDLE?) 90S WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE, AND MIXING SHOULD PUSH
DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, AND SKY COVER TO MATCH ONGOING
TRENDS, FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS LESS THAN 5KT WITH CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011726
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING, AFTER
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK, MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
IS STILL ANOMALOUSLY LOW (PWATS ARE 0.6-0.8 INCHES, OR 40-50% OF
NORMAL) THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
IN PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. OTHERWISE, REGIONAL WEATHER IS STILL
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS UNDER NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE LOWER
(EVEN MIDDLE?) 90S WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE, AND MIXING SHOULD PUSH
DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, AND SKY COVER TO MATCH ONGOING
TRENDS, FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS LESS THAN 5KT WITH CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011548 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES,
DEWPOINTS, AND SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING, AFTER
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK, MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
IS STILL ANOMALOUSLY LOW (PWATS ARE 0.6-0.8 INCHES, OR 40-50% OF
NORMAL) THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
IN PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. OTHERWISE, REGIONAL WEATHER IS STILL
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS UNDER NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE LOWER
(EVEN MIDDLE?) 90S WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE, AND MIXING SHOULD PUSH
DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, AND SKY COVER TO MATCH ONGOING
TRENDS, FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 614 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 146 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FORECAST IS FORESEEN THRU DAY 4 AS NWRLY
FLOW PERSISTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE 5H SITS ACROSS TX AND MIGRATES INTO
THE SWRN U.S. THE PATTERN THEN SUPPORTS SOME RAIN/TS POTENTIAL BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS SHOULD PROVIDE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS STILL SEASONABLY HOT IN THE U80S-L90S. TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROF DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES IN THE
PLAINS TO SORT OUT. THUS, I`M NOT SOLD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC
FIELDS JUST YET TO YIELD GREAT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN
EITHER CASE, WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE. THIS
BRINGS THE GREATEST POP ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011548 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES,
DEWPOINTS, AND SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING, AFTER
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK, MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
IS STILL ANOMALOUSLY LOW (PWATS ARE 0.6-0.8 INCHES, OR 40-50% OF
NORMAL) THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
IN PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. OTHERWISE, REGIONAL WEATHER IS STILL
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS UNDER NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE LOWER
(EVEN MIDDLE?) 90S WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE, AND MIXING SHOULD PUSH
DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, AND SKY COVER TO MATCH ONGOING
TRENDS, FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 614 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 146 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FORECAST IS FORESEEN THRU DAY 4 AS NWRLY
FLOW PERSISTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE 5H SITS ACROSS TX AND MIGRATES INTO
THE SWRN U.S. THE PATTERN THEN SUPPORTS SOME RAIN/TS POTENTIAL BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS SHOULD PROVIDE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS STILL SEASONABLY HOT IN THE U80S-L90S. TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROF DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES IN THE
PLAINS TO SORT OUT. THUS, I`M NOT SOLD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC
FIELDS JUST YET TO YIELD GREAT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN
EITHER CASE, WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE. THIS
BRINGS THE GREATEST POP ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 011203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
703 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...1200Z ISSUANCE...SKIES HAVE SCATTERED OUT AS THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTH FOR NOW. AS A
RESULT...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS...MOSTLY MVFR...HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL ALABAMA WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS HAS INVADED
THE REGION CREATING FAIR SKIES. HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE
INLAND ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PUSH. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO TRIGGER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OVER
THE PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL
ALABAMA AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AL. STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE WEAK...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CRENSHAW AND COVINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA THEN THROUGH OKALOOSA
COUNTY FLORIDA AND THEN WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS WITH PWATS
OF AROUND 2.0 INCHES WHILE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER OUR
SE MS AND INTERIOR SW AL COUNTIES PWATS FALL TO 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES.
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MOIST SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER THE GULF
AND EAST OF OUR AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD HEAT UP INTO THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHICH WILL HELP ESTABLISH AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO NUDGE TEMPORARILY A
LITTLE FURTHER INLAND BEFORE SAGGING OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY
EVENING. HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR...BUT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP AREA BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. EXPECT
INDICES NEAR THE COAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 100S WHILE MORE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN THE MUCH DRIER AIR...WILL EXPERIENCE UPPER 90S
TO LOW 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND GENERALLY 70S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE MS AND
OUR MORE INTERIOR AL COUNTIES WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S. /08
JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE ALONG ALABAMA AND
FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TO WEAKEN...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER
THE GULF OF MEX BUILDING AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL HELP TO RE-ESTABLISH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF MEX BY MONDAY AND
BEGIN TO MIX THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OUT.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS EAST A BIT...WITH
TEMPS MODERATING UPWARD A BIT. COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS OVER
MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FA...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S RETURN
MONDAY...THOUGH DO NOT SEE HEAT INDICES REACHING CRITICAL VALUES(EXCEPT
FOR NEAR COASTAL AREAS SEEING DAYTIME HEAT INDICES AROUND 105).

WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE COAST THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. DID PUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10...MAINLY DUE TOT HE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES SEES SOME
MANIPULATION BY A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND
A VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS RE-DIGS THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF SHIFTS NORTH...TO OVER THE
NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND BRINGING A MORE DIRECT
FLOW OFF THE GULF. NEED LESS TO SAY...THIS INCREASES MOISTURE
LEVELS...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING TO INCREASE. TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL...BUT SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPS...
WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST SEEING THE LARGEST DROP. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD A BIT...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH (AND PASSING OVER THE FA THURSDAY)...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FALL WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD-COVER/RAINFALL...TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SEES
SOME SQUEEZING AS A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND ULTIMATELY BY FRIDAY...THE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE TENN
RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISS/AL/GA. THIS FRONT
MAY PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
THIS BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST...AND GUIDANCE INCONSISTENT IN
THE FRONT`S POSITION...AM LEANING TOWARDS A SEASONAL FORECAST.

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
EACH AFTERNOON BECOMING AN OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  71  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   91  75  94  75  95 /  50  30  20  10  20
DESTIN      90  77  92  78  91 /  60  40  30  10  20
EVERGREEN   96  71  97  65  97 /  20  10  10  10  00
WAYNESBORO  95  67  97  67  97 /  05  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      96  69  97  65  97 /  10  05  05  10  00
CRESTVIEW   93  73  97  67  96 /  60  40  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 011203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
703 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...1200Z ISSUANCE...SKIES HAVE SCATTERED OUT AS THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTH FOR NOW. AS A
RESULT...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS...MOSTLY MVFR...HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL ALABAMA WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS HAS INVADED
THE REGION CREATING FAIR SKIES. HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE
INLAND ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PUSH. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO TRIGGER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OVER
THE PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL
ALABAMA AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AL. STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE WEAK...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CRENSHAW AND COVINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA THEN THROUGH OKALOOSA
COUNTY FLORIDA AND THEN WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS WITH PWATS
OF AROUND 2.0 INCHES WHILE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER OUR
SE MS AND INTERIOR SW AL COUNTIES PWATS FALL TO 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES.
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MOIST SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER THE GULF
AND EAST OF OUR AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD HEAT UP INTO THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHICH WILL HELP ESTABLISH AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO NUDGE TEMPORARILY A
LITTLE FURTHER INLAND BEFORE SAGGING OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY
EVENING. HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR...BUT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP AREA BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. EXPECT
INDICES NEAR THE COAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 100S WHILE MORE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN THE MUCH DRIER AIR...WILL EXPERIENCE UPPER 90S
TO LOW 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND GENERALLY 70S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE MS AND
OUR MORE INTERIOR AL COUNTIES WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S. /08
JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE ALONG ALABAMA AND
FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TO WEAKEN...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER
THE GULF OF MEX BUILDING AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL HELP TO RE-ESTABLISH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF MEX BY MONDAY AND
BEGIN TO MIX THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OUT.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS EAST A BIT...WITH
TEMPS MODERATING UPWARD A BIT. COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS OVER
MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FA...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S RETURN
MONDAY...THOUGH DO NOT SEE HEAT INDICES REACHING CRITICAL VALUES(EXCEPT
FOR NEAR COASTAL AREAS SEEING DAYTIME HEAT INDICES AROUND 105).

WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE COAST THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. DID PUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10...MAINLY DUE TOT HE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES SEES SOME
MANIPULATION BY A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND
A VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS RE-DIGS THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF SHIFTS NORTH...TO OVER THE
NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND BRINGING A MORE DIRECT
FLOW OFF THE GULF. NEED LESS TO SAY...THIS INCREASES MOISTURE
LEVELS...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING TO INCREASE. TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL...BUT SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPS...
WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST SEEING THE LARGEST DROP. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD A BIT...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH (AND PASSING OVER THE FA THURSDAY)...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FALL WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD-COVER/RAINFALL...TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SEES
SOME SQUEEZING AS A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND ULTIMATELY BY FRIDAY...THE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE TENN
RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISS/AL/GA. THIS FRONT
MAY PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
THIS BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST...AND GUIDANCE INCONSISTENT IN
THE FRONT`S POSITION...AM LEANING TOWARDS A SEASONAL FORECAST.

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
EACH AFTERNOON BECOMING AN OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  71  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   91  75  94  75  95 /  50  30  20  10  20
DESTIN      90  77  92  78  91 /  60  40  30  10  20
EVERGREEN   96  71  97  65  97 /  20  10  10  10  00
WAYNESBORO  95  67  97  67  97 /  05  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      96  69  97  65  97 /  10  05  05  10  00
CRESTVIEW   93  73  97  67  96 /  60  40  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 011203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
703 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...1200Z ISSUANCE...SKIES HAVE SCATTERED OUT AS THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTH FOR NOW. AS A
RESULT...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS...MOSTLY MVFR...HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL ALABAMA WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS HAS INVADED
THE REGION CREATING FAIR SKIES. HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE
INLAND ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PUSH. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO TRIGGER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OVER
THE PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL
ALABAMA AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AL. STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE WEAK...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CRENSHAW AND COVINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA THEN THROUGH OKALOOSA
COUNTY FLORIDA AND THEN WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS WITH PWATS
OF AROUND 2.0 INCHES WHILE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER OUR
SE MS AND INTERIOR SW AL COUNTIES PWATS FALL TO 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES.
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MOIST SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER THE GULF
AND EAST OF OUR AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD HEAT UP INTO THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHICH WILL HELP ESTABLISH AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO NUDGE TEMPORARILY A
LITTLE FURTHER INLAND BEFORE SAGGING OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY
EVENING. HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR...BUT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP AREA BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. EXPECT
INDICES NEAR THE COAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 100S WHILE MORE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN THE MUCH DRIER AIR...WILL EXPERIENCE UPPER 90S
TO LOW 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND GENERALLY 70S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE MS AND
OUR MORE INTERIOR AL COUNTIES WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S. /08
JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE ALONG ALABAMA AND
FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TO WEAKEN...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER
THE GULF OF MEX BUILDING AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL HELP TO RE-ESTABLISH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF MEX BY MONDAY AND
BEGIN TO MIX THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OUT.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS EAST A BIT...WITH
TEMPS MODERATING UPWARD A BIT. COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS OVER
MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FA...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S RETURN
MONDAY...THOUGH DO NOT SEE HEAT INDICES REACHING CRITICAL VALUES(EXCEPT
FOR NEAR COASTAL AREAS SEEING DAYTIME HEAT INDICES AROUND 105).

WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE COAST THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. DID PUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10...MAINLY DUE TOT HE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES SEES SOME
MANIPULATION BY A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND
A VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS RE-DIGS THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF SHIFTS NORTH...TO OVER THE
NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND BRINGING A MORE DIRECT
FLOW OFF THE GULF. NEED LESS TO SAY...THIS INCREASES MOISTURE
LEVELS...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING TO INCREASE. TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL...BUT SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPS...
WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST SEEING THE LARGEST DROP. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD A BIT...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH (AND PASSING OVER THE FA THURSDAY)...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FALL WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD-COVER/RAINFALL...TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SEES
SOME SQUEEZING AS A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND ULTIMATELY BY FRIDAY...THE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE TENN
RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISS/AL/GA. THIS FRONT
MAY PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
THIS BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST...AND GUIDANCE INCONSISTENT IN
THE FRONT`S POSITION...AM LEANING TOWARDS A SEASONAL FORECAST.

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
EACH AFTERNOON BECOMING AN OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  71  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   91  75  94  75  95 /  50  30  20  10  20
DESTIN      90  77  92  78  91 /  60  40  30  10  20
EVERGREEN   96  71  97  65  97 /  20  10  10  10  00
WAYNESBORO  95  67  97  67  97 /  05  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      96  69  97  65  97 /  10  05  05  10  00
CRESTVIEW   93  73  97  67  96 /  60  40  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 011203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
703 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...1200Z ISSUANCE...SKIES HAVE SCATTERED OUT AS THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTH FOR NOW. AS A
RESULT...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS...MOSTLY MVFR...HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL ALABAMA WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS HAS INVADED
THE REGION CREATING FAIR SKIES. HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE
INLAND ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PUSH. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO TRIGGER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OVER
THE PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL
ALABAMA AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AL. STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE WEAK...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CRENSHAW AND COVINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA THEN THROUGH OKALOOSA
COUNTY FLORIDA AND THEN WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS WITH PWATS
OF AROUND 2.0 INCHES WHILE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER OUR
SE MS AND INTERIOR SW AL COUNTIES PWATS FALL TO 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES.
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MOIST SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER THE GULF
AND EAST OF OUR AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD HEAT UP INTO THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHICH WILL HELP ESTABLISH AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO NUDGE TEMPORARILY A
LITTLE FURTHER INLAND BEFORE SAGGING OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY
EVENING. HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR...BUT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP AREA BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. EXPECT
INDICES NEAR THE COAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 100S WHILE MORE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN THE MUCH DRIER AIR...WILL EXPERIENCE UPPER 90S
TO LOW 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND GENERALLY 70S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE MS AND
OUR MORE INTERIOR AL COUNTIES WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S. /08
JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE ALONG ALABAMA AND
FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TO WEAKEN...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER
THE GULF OF MEX BUILDING AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL HELP TO RE-ESTABLISH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF MEX BY MONDAY AND
BEGIN TO MIX THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OUT.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS EAST A BIT...WITH
TEMPS MODERATING UPWARD A BIT. COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS OVER
MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FA...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S RETURN
MONDAY...THOUGH DO NOT SEE HEAT INDICES REACHING CRITICAL VALUES(EXCEPT
FOR NEAR COASTAL AREAS SEEING DAYTIME HEAT INDICES AROUND 105).

WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE COAST THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. DID PUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10...MAINLY DUE TOT HE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES SEES SOME
MANIPULATION BY A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND
A VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS RE-DIGS THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF SHIFTS NORTH...TO OVER THE
NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND BRINGING A MORE DIRECT
FLOW OFF THE GULF. NEED LESS TO SAY...THIS INCREASES MOISTURE
LEVELS...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING TO INCREASE. TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL...BUT SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPS...
WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST SEEING THE LARGEST DROP. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD A BIT...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH (AND PASSING OVER THE FA THURSDAY)...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FALL WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD-COVER/RAINFALL...TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SEES
SOME SQUEEZING AS A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND ULTIMATELY BY FRIDAY...THE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE TENN
RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISS/AL/GA. THIS FRONT
MAY PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
THIS BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST...AND GUIDANCE INCONSISTENT IN
THE FRONT`S POSITION...AM LEANING TOWARDS A SEASONAL FORECAST.

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
EACH AFTERNOON BECOMING AN OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  71  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   91  75  94  75  95 /  50  30  20  10  20
DESTIN      90  77  92  78  91 /  60  40  30  10  20
EVERGREEN   96  71  97  65  97 /  20  10  10  10  00
WAYNESBORO  95  67  97  67  97 /  05  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      96  69  97  65  97 /  10  05  05  10  00
CRESTVIEW   93  73  97  67  96 /  60  40  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011141
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A WEAK COOL FRONT WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KNOTS TODAY
WILL HELP PUSH FRONT SOUTHWARD. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
ALONG SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KTOI BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TSTMS TO STAY SOUTH OF
KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    92  66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  92  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  94  71  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        92  71  94  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011141
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A WEAK COOL FRONT WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KNOTS TODAY
WILL HELP PUSH FRONT SOUTHWARD. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
ALONG SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KTOI BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TSTMS TO STAY SOUTH OF
KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    92  66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  92  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  94  71  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        92  71  94  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011141
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A WEAK COOL FRONT WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KNOTS TODAY
WILL HELP PUSH FRONT SOUTHWARD. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
ALONG SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KTOI BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TSTMS TO STAY SOUTH OF
KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    92  66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  92  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  94  71  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        92  71  94  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011141
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A WEAK COOL FRONT WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KNOTS TODAY
WILL HELP PUSH FRONT SOUTHWARD. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
ALONG SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KTOI BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TSTMS TO STAY SOUTH OF
KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    92  66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  92  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  94  71  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        92  71  94  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011114
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
614 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 146 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AT 06Z, TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING INTO THE L-M60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF SRN TN AND NERN AL, WITH U60S-L70S FOUND IN NWRN AL AND
URBAN AREAS. NORTHERLY BREEZES HAVE CALMED DOWN WITH A CLEAR-MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. CI DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TS WERE STREAMING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER BUT MAY TEND
TO THIN OUT WITH TIME.

A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FORECAST IS FORESEEN THRU DAY 4 AS NWRLY FLOW
PERSISTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE 5H SITS ACROSS TX AND MIGRATES INTO THE
SWRN U.S. THE PATTERN THEN SUPPORTS SOME RAIN/TS POTENTIAL BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS SHOULD PROVIDE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS STILL SEASONABLY HOT IN THE U80S-L90S. TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROF DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES IN THE
PLAINS TO SORT OUT. THUS, I`M NOT SOLD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
DYNAMIC FIELDS JUST YET TO YIELD GREAT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
IN EITHER CASE, WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE. THIS
BRINGS THE GREATEST POP ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011114
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
614 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 146 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AT 06Z, TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING INTO THE L-M60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF SRN TN AND NERN AL, WITH U60S-L70S FOUND IN NWRN AL AND
URBAN AREAS. NORTHERLY BREEZES HAVE CALMED DOWN WITH A CLEAR-MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. CI DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TS WERE STREAMING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER BUT MAY TEND
TO THIN OUT WITH TIME.

A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FORECAST IS FORESEEN THRU DAY 4 AS NWRLY FLOW
PERSISTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE 5H SITS ACROSS TX AND MIGRATES INTO THE
SWRN U.S. THE PATTERN THEN SUPPORTS SOME RAIN/TS POTENTIAL BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS SHOULD PROVIDE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS STILL SEASONABLY HOT IN THE U80S-L90S. TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROF DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES IN THE
PLAINS TO SORT OUT. THUS, I`M NOT SOLD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
DYNAMIC FIELDS JUST YET TO YIELD GREAT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
IN EITHER CASE, WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE. THIS
BRINGS THE GREATEST POP ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 011005
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
505 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE WEAK...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CRENSHAW AND COVINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA THEN THROUGH OKALOOSA
COUNTY FLORIDA AND THEN WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS WITH PWATS
OF AROUND 2.0 INCHES WHILE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER OUR
SE MS AND INTERIOR SW AL COUNTIES PWATS FALL TO 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES.
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MOIST SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER THE GULF
AND EAST OUR AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD HEAT UP INTO THE MID
90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHICH WILL HELP ESTABLISH AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WHICH WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO NUDGE TEMPORARILY A LITTLE
FURTHER INLAND BEFORE SAGGING OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY EVENING.
HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE
MOISTURE RICH AIR...BUT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
AREA BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. EXPECT INDICES NEAR THE
COAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 100S WHILE MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN
THE MUCH DRIER AIR...WILL EXPERIENCE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND GENERALLY 70S
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE MS AND OUR MORE INTERIOR AL
COUNTIES WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE OF ALABAMA AND
FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TO WEAKEN...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER
THE GULF OF MEX BUILDING AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL HELP TO RE-ESTABLISH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF MEX BY MONDAY AND
BEGIN TO MIX THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OUT.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS EAST A BIT...WITH
TEMPS MODERATING UPWARD A BIT. COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS OVER
MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FA...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S RETURN
MONDAY...THOUGH DO NOT SEE HEAT INDICES REACHING CRITICAL VALUES(EXCEPT
FOR NEAR COASTAL AREAS SEEING DAYTIME HEAT INDICES AROUND 105).

WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE COAST THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. DID PUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10...MAINLY DUE TOT HE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES SEES SOME
MANIPULATION BY A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND
A VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS RE-DIGS THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF SHIFTS NORTH...TO OVER THE
NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND BRINGING A MORE DIRECT
FLOW OFF THE GULF. NEED LESS TO SAY...THIS INCREASES MOISTURE
LEVELS...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING TO INCREASE. TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL...BUT SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPS...
WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST SEEING THE LARGEST DROP. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD A BIT...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH (AND PASSING OVER THE FA THURSDAY)...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FALL WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD-COVER/RAINFALL...TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SEES
SOME SQUEEZING AS A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND ULTIMATELY BY FRIDAY...THE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE TENN
RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISS/AL/GA. THIS FRONT
MAY PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
THIS BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST...AND GUIDANCE INCONSISTENT IN
THE FRONT`S POSITION...AM LEANING TOWARDS A SEASONAL FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
EACH AFTERNOON BECOMING AN OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. /08 JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  71  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   91  75  94  75  95 /  50  30  20  10  20
DESTIN      90  77  92  78  91 /  60  40  30  10  20
EVERGREEN   96  71  97  65  97 /  20  10  10  10  00
WAYNESBORO  95  67  97  67  97 /  05  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      96  69  97  65  97 /  10  05  05  10  00
CRESTVIEW   93  73  97  67  96 /  60  40  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 011005
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
505 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE WEAK...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CRENSHAW AND COVINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA THEN THROUGH OKALOOSA
COUNTY FLORIDA AND THEN WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS WITH PWATS
OF AROUND 2.0 INCHES WHILE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER OUR
SE MS AND INTERIOR SW AL COUNTIES PWATS FALL TO 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES.
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MOIST SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER THE GULF
AND EAST OUR AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD HEAT UP INTO THE MID
90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHICH WILL HELP ESTABLISH AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WHICH WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO NUDGE TEMPORARILY A LITTLE
FURTHER INLAND BEFORE SAGGING OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY EVENING.
HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE
MOISTURE RICH AIR...BUT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
AREA BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. EXPECT INDICES NEAR THE
COAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 100S WHILE MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN
THE MUCH DRIER AIR...WILL EXPERIENCE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND GENERALLY 70S
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE MS AND OUR MORE INTERIOR AL
COUNTIES WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE OF ALABAMA AND
FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TO WEAKEN...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER
THE GULF OF MEX BUILDING AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL HELP TO RE-ESTABLISH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF MEX BY MONDAY AND
BEGIN TO MIX THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OUT.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS EAST A BIT...WITH
TEMPS MODERATING UPWARD A BIT. COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS OVER
MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FA...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S RETURN
MONDAY...THOUGH DO NOT SEE HEAT INDICES REACHING CRITICAL VALUES(EXCEPT
FOR NEAR COASTAL AREAS SEEING DAYTIME HEAT INDICES AROUND 105).

WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE COAST THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. DID PUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10...MAINLY DUE TOT HE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES SEES SOME
MANIPULATION BY A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND
A VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS RE-DIGS THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF SHIFTS NORTH...TO OVER THE
NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND BRINGING A MORE DIRECT
FLOW OFF THE GULF. NEED LESS TO SAY...THIS INCREASES MOISTURE
LEVELS...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING TO INCREASE. TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL...BUT SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPS...
WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST SEEING THE LARGEST DROP. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD A BIT...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH (AND PASSING OVER THE FA THURSDAY)...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FALL WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD-COVER/RAINFALL...TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SEES
SOME SQUEEZING AS A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND ULTIMATELY BY FRIDAY...THE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE TENN
RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISS/AL/GA. THIS FRONT
MAY PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
THIS BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST...AND GUIDANCE INCONSISTENT IN
THE FRONT`S POSITION...AM LEANING TOWARDS A SEASONAL FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
EACH AFTERNOON BECOMING AN OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. /08 JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  71  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   91  75  94  75  95 /  50  30  20  10  20
DESTIN      90  77  92  78  91 /  60  40  30  10  20
EVERGREEN   96  71  97  65  97 /  20  10  10  10  00
WAYNESBORO  95  67  97  67  97 /  05  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      96  69  97  65  97 /  10  05  05  10  00
CRESTVIEW   93  73  97  67  96 /  60  40  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 010812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
312 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS FOR NORTHERN SITES...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS.

AS FOR TOI AND MGM...QS FRONT WILL REMAIN WAFFLING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SSWWD MOVING WAVE
TO BRING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS MGM DURING THE DAY, WHILE OTHERS
DO NOT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS TO
TOI...WHICH STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. EXPECT SLIGHT MVFR IN
THE WARM SOUP SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER TOI...AND AGAIN WILL HOLD
MVFR TO THE SOUTH OF MGM...BUT KEEP AN EYE OVERNIGHT IN CASE IT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD.

JD/02


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    92  66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  92  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  94  71  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        92  71  94  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
312 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS FOR NORTHERN SITES...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS.

AS FOR TOI AND MGM...QS FRONT WILL REMAIN WAFFLING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SSWWD MOVING WAVE
TO BRING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS MGM DURING THE DAY, WHILE OTHERS
DO NOT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS TO
TOI...WHICH STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. EXPECT SLIGHT MVFR IN
THE WARM SOUP SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER TOI...AND AGAIN WILL HOLD
MVFR TO THE SOUTH OF MGM...BUT KEEP AN EYE OVERNIGHT IN CASE IT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD.

JD/02


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    92  66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  92  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  94  71  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        92  71  94  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010646
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
146 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AT 06Z, TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING INTO THE L-M60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF SRN TN AND NERN AL, WITH U60S-L70S FOUND IN NWRN AL AND
URBAN AREAS. NORTHERLY BREEZES HAVE CALMED DOWN WITH A CLEAR-MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. CI DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TS WERE STREAMING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER BUT MAY TEND
TO THIN OUT WITH TIME.

A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FORECAST IS FORESEEN THRU DAY 4 AS NWRLY FLOW
PERSISTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE 5H SITS ACROSS TX AND MIGRATES INTO THE
SWRN U.S. THE PATTERN THEN SUPPORTS SOME RAIN/TS POTENTIAL BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS SHOULD PROVIDE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS STILL SEASONABLY HOT IN THE U80S-L90S. TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROF DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES IN THE
PLAINS TO SORT OUT. THUS, I`M NOT SOLD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
DYNAMIC FIELDS JUST YET TO YIELD GREAT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
IN EITHER CASE, WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE. THIS
BRINGS THE GREATEST POP ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1218 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  92  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        65  93  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      67  91  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  62  90  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   63  91  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    59  91  61  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010646
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
146 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AT 06Z, TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING INTO THE L-M60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF SRN TN AND NERN AL, WITH U60S-L70S FOUND IN NWRN AL AND
URBAN AREAS. NORTHERLY BREEZES HAVE CALMED DOWN WITH A CLEAR-MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. CI DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TS WERE STREAMING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER BUT MAY TEND
TO THIN OUT WITH TIME.

A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FORECAST IS FORESEEN THRU DAY 4 AS NWRLY FLOW
PERSISTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE 5H SITS ACROSS TX AND MIGRATES INTO THE
SWRN U.S. THE PATTERN THEN SUPPORTS SOME RAIN/TS POTENTIAL BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS SHOULD PROVIDE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS STILL SEASONABLY HOT IN THE U80S-L90S. TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROF DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES IN THE
PLAINS TO SORT OUT. THUS, I`M NOT SOLD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
DYNAMIC FIELDS JUST YET TO YIELD GREAT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
IN EITHER CASE, WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE. THIS
BRINGS THE GREATEST POP ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1218 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  92  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        65  93  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      67  91  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  62  90  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   63  91  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    59  91  61  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 010646
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
146 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AT 06Z, TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING INTO THE L-M60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF SRN TN AND NERN AL, WITH U60S-L70S FOUND IN NWRN AL AND
URBAN AREAS. NORTHERLY BREEZES HAVE CALMED DOWN WITH A CLEAR-MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. CI DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TS WERE STREAMING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER BUT MAY TEND
TO THIN OUT WITH TIME.

A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FORECAST IS FORESEEN THRU DAY 4 AS NWRLY FLOW
PERSISTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE 5H SITS ACROSS TX AND MIGRATES INTO THE
SWRN U.S. THE PATTERN THEN SUPPORTS SOME RAIN/TS POTENTIAL BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS SHOULD PROVIDE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS STILL SEASONABLY HOT IN THE U80S-L90S. TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROF DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES IN THE
PLAINS TO SORT OUT. THUS, I`M NOT SOLD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
DYNAMIC FIELDS JUST YET TO YIELD GREAT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
IN EITHER CASE, WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE. THIS
BRINGS THE GREATEST POP ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1218 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  92  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        65  93  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      67  91  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  62  90  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   63  91  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    59  91  61  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010646
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
146 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AT 06Z, TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING INTO THE L-M60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF SRN TN AND NERN AL, WITH U60S-L70S FOUND IN NWRN AL AND
URBAN AREAS. NORTHERLY BREEZES HAVE CALMED DOWN WITH A CLEAR-MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. CI DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TS WERE STREAMING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER BUT MAY TEND
TO THIN OUT WITH TIME.

A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FORECAST IS FORESEEN THRU DAY 4 AS NWRLY FLOW
PERSISTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE 5H SITS ACROSS TX AND MIGRATES INTO THE
SWRN U.S. THE PATTERN THEN SUPPORTS SOME RAIN/TS POTENTIAL BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS SHOULD PROVIDE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS STILL SEASONABLY HOT IN THE U80S-L90S. TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROF DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES IN THE
PLAINS TO SORT OUT. THUS, I`M NOT SOLD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
DYNAMIC FIELDS JUST YET TO YIELD GREAT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
IN EITHER CASE, WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE. THIS
BRINGS THE GREATEST POP ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1218 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  92  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        65  93  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      67  91  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  62  90  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   63  91  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    59  91  61  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010646
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
146 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AT 06Z, TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING INTO THE L-M60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF SRN TN AND NERN AL, WITH U60S-L70S FOUND IN NWRN AL AND
URBAN AREAS. NORTHERLY BREEZES HAVE CALMED DOWN WITH A CLEAR-MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. CI DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TS WERE STREAMING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER BUT MAY TEND
TO THIN OUT WITH TIME.

A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FORECAST IS FORESEEN THRU DAY 4 AS NWRLY FLOW
PERSISTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE 5H SITS ACROSS TX AND MIGRATES INTO THE
SWRN U.S. THE PATTERN THEN SUPPORTS SOME RAIN/TS POTENTIAL BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS SHOULD PROVIDE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS STILL SEASONABLY HOT IN THE U80S-L90S. TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROF DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES IN THE
PLAINS TO SORT OUT. THUS, I`M NOT SOLD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
DYNAMIC FIELDS JUST YET TO YIELD GREAT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
IN EITHER CASE, WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE. THIS
BRINGS THE GREATEST POP ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1218 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  92  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        65  93  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      67  91  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  62  90  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   63  91  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    59  91  61  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010646
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
146 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AT 06Z, TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING INTO THE L-M60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF SRN TN AND NERN AL, WITH U60S-L70S FOUND IN NWRN AL AND
URBAN AREAS. NORTHERLY BREEZES HAVE CALMED DOWN WITH A CLEAR-MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. CI DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TS WERE STREAMING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER BUT MAY TEND
TO THIN OUT WITH TIME.

A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FORECAST IS FORESEEN THRU DAY 4 AS NWRLY FLOW
PERSISTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE 5H SITS ACROSS TX AND MIGRATES INTO THE
SWRN U.S. THE PATTERN THEN SUPPORTS SOME RAIN/TS POTENTIAL BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS SHOULD PROVIDE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS STILL SEASONABLY HOT IN THE U80S-L90S. TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROF DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES IN THE
PLAINS TO SORT OUT. THUS, I`M NOT SOLD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
DYNAMIC FIELDS JUST YET TO YIELD GREAT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
IN EITHER CASE, WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE. THIS
BRINGS THE GREATEST POP ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1218 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  92  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        65  93  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      67  91  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  62  90  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   63  91  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    59  91  61  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities