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000
FXUS64 KHUN 262257 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
557 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
 (Issued 250 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016)
At 1930z, the large area of showers and thunderstorms associated
with a surface trough across southeast Missouri and into southwest
Kentucky was continuing to slowly slide southeast into middle
Tennessee. Dry and very warm conditions were continuing across the
forecast area this afternoon with temps ranging from the mid to upper
80s in southern middle Tennessee and northeast Alabama to the lower
90s in northwest Alabama.

For tonight, the short term models are in agreement involving keeping
the showers/storms to the north of the forecast area and will
continue with a partly cloudy and warm forecast for the area tonight.
By Friday afternoon, it is expected that more low level
moisture/slightly more instability and heating should result in at
least a slight chance pop at most locations and into the chance pop
category in northeast Alabama due to afternoon orographic lift.

By Friday night and into Saturday, the models are in decent agreement
involving moving a weak short wave northeast out of Mississippi into
the forecast area. Will increase precip chances across the forecast
area by early Saturday and through the day as this should be our best
chance for showers/storms during the forecast period. By Saturday
evening, the short wave should shift east-northeast of the forecast
area, with precip chances lessening through the evening. Will
maintain a slight chance pop for Sunday, as the ECMWF and GFS models
remain in agreement involving moving a weak frontal boundary
southeast through the forecast area by 00z Monday.

Will only maintain diurnal afternoon pops for Monday and Tuesday, as
a very slight northwest flow could bring in some slightly drier air
to the forecast area. By Wednesday, both the GFS and ECMWF models
indicate that a cold front will be moving slowly southeast out of the
northern into the central plains states. As the cold front moves
closer to the region by Wednesday, will keep precip chances into the
chance category due to increased low level moisture, lift and
instability especially by afternoon. Precip chances should be even
slightly higher into the chance category on Thursday as the cold
front should be moving into middle Tennessee by late in the day. As
far as temps are concerned, will be going with a compromise between
the slightly warmer ECMWF and slightly cooler GFS temps through the
extended forecast periods.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
For 00Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected at this time during the
next 24 hours. We are monitoring thunderstorm trends in middle and
southwest TN where a band of thunderstorms was slowly moving south.
More stable and drier air over north AL is expected to keep the
thunderstorms to the north KMSL and KHSV.

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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000
FXUS64 KBMX 262008
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
308 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure centered over Alabama will gradually weaken over the
next several days as an upper trof over the central plains states
shifts slightly eastward and an upper low lifts northwest towards
the Carolinas. Precipitable water values will increase to near 1.5
inches by Friday which will also help the air mass support more
diurnal convection. In this type of set-up, once convection gets
going it could really increase due to outflow boundaries and steep
low level lapse rates. By Saturday drier mid level air on the back
side of the developing tropical system will push into Georgia and
east Alabama. This will keep the better rain chances on Saturday
for areas west of I-65. The influx of Atlantic moisture on
Saturday will also provide a temporary respite from heat, if only
a few degrees.

After Saturday the low level and mid level flow becomes northerly
as the low pressure system near the Carolinas shifts northward.
This will result in warmer daytime temperatures and less diurnal
convection. Possibly an increase in rain chances across north
Alabama Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level trof approaches
from the north.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

A few fair weather cumulus are developing across the south and
eastern locations. Winds will remain from the south at around 5
to 10 kts as high pressure remains centered off the east coast. A
few random gusts have been reported to 16kts but nothing
sustained.

88


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected
through the week with only minimal rain chances. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  89  61  87  60 /  10  30  20  10  10
Anniston    65  89  63  87  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
Birmingham  67  90  67  86  66 /  10  10  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  66  90  66  87  67 /   0  10  20  20  10
Calera      66  89  67  86  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
Auburn      66  88  64  87  63 /  10  10   0  10   0
Montgomery  66  91  66  89  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
Troy        63  90  63  89  59 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS64 KMOB 261747 AAB
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1247 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...See updated information below.

&&

.UPDATE...The current forecast is on track an no updates are needed
at this time. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the next
24 hours. Some patchy MVFR fog is possible during the early morning
hours on Friday. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Clouds stream eastward across the Gulf Coast today.
This morning cig bases are forecast to remain at high levels. Cu with
bases ranging from 3 to 5 kft possible this afternoon. Light and
variable winds early this morning become south to southeast 8 to 13
knots late morning into the afternoon. Patchy fog over the interior
is forecast to dissipate quickly after sunrise. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Very little change in the
height field aloft to start off the near term. A deep upper trof over
the southwest US maintains a down stream ridge...positioned from the
Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf to over the central Gulf Coast.
On the northern periphery of the ridge axis...clouds were streaming
eastward from Texas into the southeast. Considering satellite
trends...an upward adjustment to sky coverage percentages is
necessary. Appears clouds will continue to stream from west to east
through tonight. The Gulf high level ridge remains in an amplified
state over the local area as deep upper trof ejects across the four
corners of the desert southwest. Despite the upper ridge in
place...cannot discount a few...very isolated pop-up afternoon storms
here and there generally over the western half of the local area
given a slightly better deep layer moisture profile along with
daytime instability. Pops 10% or less. The axis of a surface high
pressure system extends from off the Mid-Atlantic Coast...resulting
in the continuation of a light south to southeast flow. Daytime highs
mostly in the mid to upper 80`s interior to 82 to 85 along the
beaches.

Latest short range ensembles indicate potential of patchy late night
fog development tonight. Will keep visibility in patchy fog between 3
to 6 miles as amount of cloud cover looks to mitigate lower
visibilities at this time. Little change in overnight lows with mid
60`s interior to lower 70`s coast. /10

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...Narrow upper ridging
extending from the north central Gulf to the central east coast
weakens gradually through the period as an upper trof over the Plains
ejects off to the north and a system north of the Bahamas advances
towards the Carolinas. A surface ridge extending from the east
central coast into the north central Gulf shifts northward through
the period but should continue to favor a light southerly flow over
the forecast area through Saturday, then becoming northerly Saturday
night as the aforementioned system nears the Carolinas. While the
narrow upper ridging over the region weakens through the period,
model soundings show lingering effects of subsidence. Have opted to
continue with a prevailing dry forecast through the period, although
may see a storm or two develop each day. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 80s each day. Lows will range from the mid 60s inland to near
70 at the coast. /29

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The system is expected to
meander near the Carolinas and gradually weaken through Tuesday, with
a northwesterly flow prevailing over the forecast area, except for a
southerly flow developing near the coast each afternoon. A prevailing
southerly flow finally becomes established by Wednesday as the
system either dissipates or moves further away from the region. Model
soundings show a cap or warm layer present near 700 mb on Sunday, but
this feature erodes by Monday. Have opted to continue with a dry
forecast for Sunday, although a storm or two may develop, then
continued with slight chance pops for each remaining day. Highs on
Sunday will be near 90 over inland areas with mid/upper 80s near the
coast, followed by a slight warming trend with highs on Wednesday in
the lower 90s inland with upper 80s near the coast. Lows will be in
the upper 60s inland with lower 70s near the coast. /29

MARINE...An onshore flow is forecast through Saturday with high
pressure positioned to the east. As the axis of the high shifts west
of the area late in the weekend...a light westerly flow sets up late
Sunday and continues into Monday. Seas change little. Rain chances
look slim right on through the weekend. /10

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261618 CCB
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1039 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...To raise high temperatures and pop near TN/AL state line
this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looking at mesoscale model guidance and observations/trends, it looks
as though two primary initation points for showers/storms would be
the focus for activity today. (1 - Weak convergence boundary from
Ripley south to Kosciusko in Mississippi   2 - Convective
activity developing along an outlflow boundary from showers and
thunderstorm activity developing over eastern Missouri)

In between, over Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee,
mesoscale models are similar keeping fairly strong subsidence in
place in the lower levels of the atmosphere until later this
afternoon. Therefore, not expecting much development with any
precipitation until after 20Z when some positive omega values
develop. This activity should only be isolated and in northwesern
Alabama, close to intiation area 1. Higher coverage will be mainly be
in MS.

Activity initiated from area 2 will push into Southern Middle TN and
locations near the AL/TN state line from the north later this
afternoon (after 3 or 4 pm). We will be unstable enough, but models
weaken this activity as it pushes in. Likely due to a very weak CAPE
hinted at aloft by mesoscale forecast soundings. However, given
forecast instability parameters and very moist surface conditions
that are in place (and will continue to advect into extreme
northwestern Alabama through the afternoon hours), isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity looks possible late this
afternoon in northwest Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee. The
main threats with any stronger storms that develop will be gusty
winds to around 40 mph and frequent lightning. Thus added a 20 to 30
pop in northwest Alabama and our Southern Middle Tennessee counties.

Partly cloudy conditions should be prevalent through much of the day,
until the late afternoon hours in northwest Alabama. Temperatures
are already in the 79 to 85 degree range across much of the forecast
area. Huntsville may be on its way to 94 degrees. Most locations will
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Luckily dewpoints should remain
comfortable east of Lawrence county in Alabama. This should make the
heat uncomfortable but bearable today.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 710 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016)
For 12Z TAFs: VFR conds currently observed at HSV/MSL should prevail
thru the valid TAF period, with sct cu expected to develop later
this morning beneath a gradually increasing coverage of ci.
Otherwise, lower stratus will likely return to the region prior to
sunrise Friday but will only indicate this with sct030 at this point.
A few shra/tsra will be psbl thru the period across NW AL, but
uncertainty regarding coverage/timing prevents inclusion of VCTS/VCSH
in TAFMSL. Sfc winds will range from 140-200 degrees, with speeds of
5-10 kts.

70/DD

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260849
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
349 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper level disturbance is the cause for the isolated light
showers that moved through overnight. Showers are a bit more
scattered in nature over TN, but based on latest movement of these
features the showers should stay out of the forecast area. Models are
all in agreement in keeping almost the entire region dry for today.
The CAMs indicate a few isolated showers developing over central MS
this afternoon and may approach our far western counties. When
attempting to determine what they could be generating this convection
on, noticed a region of depressed temps and dewpoints over NE MS/W
AL. Dewpoints were in the 60s but areas to the west were upwards of
70 degrees and east in the mid 60s. So, this temp/dewpoint difference
might be enough to spark a few isolated showers. Have nudged PoPs up
along the MS/AL border to account for this but values are still 20
percent or less. High temps for this afternoon will be similar to
Wed. with values in the upper 80s.

A strong low pressure system is expected to eject NE out of the four
corners region into the SW plains this afternoon. Widespread
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over much of the central and
southern plains as a result of this wave. One uncertainty in the
forecast for tonight is whether any of this activity is able to make
it far enough east and enter the TN Valley. Most of the models have
activity tapering off as it nears the area due to the strength of the
ridge to our east. Have opted to keep the forecast dry for tonight
because of this but could see a few stray showers/tstorms hold
together long enough to make it into NW AL.

The low shifts into the central plains on Friday and will also be
accompanied by a few additional shortwaves lifting out of TX. These
weak shortwaves should provide just enough forcing to spark isolated
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Models are surprisingly in
agreement in generating isolated convection over the Appalachians
Friday afternoon and have nudged PoPs up a bit for our eastern
counties.

Memorial Day weekend will be fairly typical for this time of year
with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s. All
models develop a subtropical system off the SC/GA/FL coast Friday
into Saturday. The high to our east shifts further eastward as this
system heads towards the coast. In response to this it looks like a
wedge front develops and may lead to better low level convergence.
This combined with a shortwave should allow for more scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon. Activity
will be focused across the western half of the area where dewpoints
will be a bit higher. Ridging begins to redevelop over the area on
Sunday and should keep the storm over the East coast. As we continue
through the Memorial Day weekend expect temps to warm slightly with
highs likely reaching above the 90 degree mark and isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. The ridge remains in place through much of
next week and expect a continuation of upper 80s to near 90 degree
temps and isolated afternoon convection.

Stumpf

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1213 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016)
For 06Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at the kmsl
and khsv terminals. High pressure will help keep conditions dry, with
clouds remaining well above 3000 ft. Winds will generally be from
the south-southwest.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    89  67  87  67 /  10  10  20  20
Shoals        89  67  87  67 /  10  10  20  20
Vinemont      87  66  85  66 /  10  10  20  20
Fayetteville  87  66  85  66 /  10  10  20  20
Albertville   87  65  86  65 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Payne    86  64  85  63 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 260445
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1145 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Evening showers across the northwest counties quickly dissipated
after sunset. Conditions will remain rain free overnight as remnant
mainly high clouds from earlier convection to our west will drift
eastward overnight. Remainder of the forecast remains on track.

05


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Terminals will remain rain free with some passing higher level
clouds overnight, especially at our southeast sites. Winds
quickly nearing calm at this hour and that trend looks to persist
through early on Thursday. Some minor reductions in visibility may
materialize at our eastern terminals at ANB/ASN/TOI toward
sunrise but should clear toward 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail through the forecast period.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected through the week with only minimal
rain chances. Low level moisture will slowly increase through the
end of the week. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  89  62  89  62 /  10  10  10  20  10
Anniston    63  90  65  90  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
Birmingham  66  90  67  90  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  63  91  66  91  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
Calera      65  91  66  91  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
Auburn      66  88  66  88  66 /   0  10  10  10   0
Montgomery  66  92  66  92  66 /   0  10  10  10   0
Troy        64  91  64  91  64 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260208 AAB
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
908 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms, that developed along an outflow boundary
from morning activity, have all but dissipated across the forecast
area. The 00z upper air sounding from KBMX shows the dry air still
in place across much of the region, with surface dewpoints remaining
in the mid to upper 50s. As a weak upper level shortwave passes, and
upper level ridging builds in, high clouds will continue to move over
the area, however no precip will occur. Temperatures are a bit
tricky, given rain cooled air across the west. However, weak
southerly flow and high cloud cover will keep temperatures from
plummeting too much more and temps across the west will likely
rebound by a degree or two before reaching forecast minimums in the
mid to upper 60s. Only changes made to the previous forecast were to
account for hourly trends. Remainder of the forecast seems to be on
track.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 624 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016)
For 00Z TAFs:

Bit of a low confidence forecast through the next few hours. A
weakening line of storms was entering AL, with most of the thunder
activity diminishing as it enters. Based on the trends over the last
hour or so, think that the showers will enter the KMSL terminal
within the hour, however not anticipating thunder to accompany the
showers. Therefore, have included VCTS to account for the
uncertainty. This line is expected to diminish before reaching the
KHSV terminal and have included VCSH in the TAF. Amendments may be
necessary if the line does not continue to diminish as anticipated.
Once this line moves through, dry conditions will prevail through the
period, and only high clouds are forecast to impact the terminals.
Winds will generally be from the southwest.

73

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 252347 CCA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Mobile AL
638 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions will remain prevalent for the most part
across the forecast area through the next 24 hours with scattered to
occasionally broken high level cloud cover moving overhead. The
exception could once again be localized MVFR to IFR fog development
across isolated locations, mainly between 26.09-13Z early Thursday
morning. Confidence was low enough to keep VFR in the local TAFs
with this issuance. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...An upper level ridge will
remain in place through Thursday. This will maintain the hot and dry
conditions. Some patchy fog and low clouds will develop overnight
before gradually clearing during the morning. Lows tonight will fall
into the mid and upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. Highs
on Thursday will climb into the upper 80s to low and mid 80s along
the coast. Conditions will also become increasingly uncomfortable as
humidity levels rise. /13

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...A surface ridge
extending westward from the surface high pressure over the western
Atlantic will persist through Saturday, keeping a light south to
southeast wind flow over the region, along with dry weather
conditions. This wind flow will bring low level moisture northward
across the forecast area, resulting in patchy fog development late
each night through the short term. An upper level trough over the
central plains will lift northeast toward the Great Lakes on
Sunday. With the upper energy passing just off to the northwest,
have maintained isolated showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
for Sunday afternoon across our inland zones.

Low temperatures will range from 65 to 70 degrees inland areas...with
lower 70s along the immediate coastal sections. High temperatures
will range from 85 to 90 degrees inland areas...with lower 80s along
the immediate coastal sections. /22

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The Great Lakes upper trough
Sunday morning will eject off to the northeast while a system
meanders off the Georgia/South Carolina coastline through Tuesday.
Meanwhile a surface ridge over the area weakens, possibly yielding to
the development of a surface trough extending from the system off
the SE US coast. As a result, isolated to low-end scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible during the daytime hours through
the long term as the environment becomes more conducive for
convection. A gradual warming trend will occur through the period
with inland highs ranging from 90 to 95 degrees Monday through
Wednesday...with upper 80s along the coast. Lows will range from 68
to 73 degrees with mid 70s at the beaches. /22

MARINE...High pressure will continue from the the western Atlantic
into the southeast through the weekend. This will maintain a
generally light wind flow. Little change in seas expected through
the period. /13

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251157
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
657 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
 (Issued 412 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016)
Relatively quiet wx conditions once again prevail across the cntrl
TN Valley this early Wed morning, under partly cloudy skies and temp
trends predom in the 60s. Weak upper disturbance which moved across
the Mid South Region late yesterday evening has well dissipated,
other than some very light returns lingering over mid TN. Upper
ridge pattern continues to become somewhat established over the SE
states, while high pressure at the sfc translates ewd into the
mid/srn Atlantic Basin. With the sfc high well to the e, return/sly
flow is well entrenched across the region, allowing Gulf moisture to
gradually stream back into the area. Slightly warmer temps should
also be the trend later Today, with the upper ridge well in place
now. Afternoon highs climbing more toward the upper 80s look to
develop mainly over the cntrl/wrn zones. Latest model suites are
hinting at some additional weak upper disturbances traversing ewd
over the Mid South/Mid TN Valley Regions later Today as well, and
may result in a few showers/tstms near the mid TN/AL border.

The seasonably warm pattern will continue Tonight and into the
latter half of the work week, with overnight lows trending mainly in
the mid 60s. Afternoon temps approaching the upper 80s to near 90F
look reasonable as well going into Thu, as the upper ridge becomes a
bit better established over the far sern states. However, latest
models are still showing the prob for an upper disturbance or two
possibly making it into the Mid TN Valley again on Thu providing for
a few showers/tstms over the srn Mid TN counties.

Rain chances still look to return for all of the local area by Fri,
as the upper ridge pattern over the SE region drifts ewd and the
flow pattern becomes a bit more active out of the sw. The latter
half of the model spread is still hinting at some additional upper
waves beginning to move newd across parts of the area starting Fri.
With a light return flow pattern keeping some moisture advection in
place, this at warrants a slight chc for showers/tstms heading into
the weekend period, consistent with the current forecast. The flow
pattern may become a bit more active as the new work week begins, as
deep upper troughing to the w shifts slightly to the e allowing a
few more of these upper disturbances to affect the region.

Overall temps this weekend period and into next week look to remain
seasonably warm, with most of the region remaining under the
influence of the Subtropical ridge well to the se. Afternoon highs
mainly in the mid/upper 80s look to prevail while overnight lows
predom hold in the mid 60s.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
For 12Z TAFs: Weak upper-air disturbance continues to push slowly ewd
across the region this morning, with bkn altostratus deck and some
virga/light sprinkles expected to persist thru 16z. This will be
replaced later this morning by sct-bkn ci debris clouds originating
from MCS currently across western AR. Although bulk of pcpn
associated with this feature will likely be steered to the n/w of the
region, amds to include shra/tsra may be required later this aftn.
Another weak disturbance will push across the area late tonight,
bringing thicker mid/high-level clouds once again. A slightly greater
threat for a few showers also will exist as the low-level jet
strengthens after dark. Sw sfc flow in the 5-10 kt range will back to
sse and diminish after sunset.

70/DD

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251047 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
547 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Vfr conditions forecast in the near term. Satellite
indicates that high level clouds will advance in from the northwest
this morning due to blow off from deep convection moving eastward into
western and central Arkansas. Heading into the afternoon...expect to
see the formation of cu with bases between 3 and 5 kft. Patchy fog
at daybreak dissipates quickly after sunrise. Light winds this
morning become southeast through the day between 8 and 12 knots. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...Upper air weather maps
show a short wave mid level ridge axis extending from the western
Gulf into the Lower Mississippi River Delta. This feature acts as a
shield over the local area from deep convection and severe storms
which continues to impact the plains states. A stark contrast in deep
layer moisture is advertised in the near term. Along the western
periphery of the deep layer ridge axis...forecasters note that layer
moisture (pwats increase to a range from 1.7 to 1.9 inches from the
Lower Mississippi River Delta to eastern Texas). Across the central
Gulf Coast...within the eastern periphery of the ridge axis (pwats
range from 1.2 to 1.4 inches on average by this afternoon. Despite
some moderation in deep moisture levels in comparison to the past few
days...larger scale subsidence from the upper ridge keeps mention of rain
out of the forecast. Surface high pressure continues to the east
with a light south to southeast wind flow forecast. Under a mix of
sun and developing fair weather cumulus clouds through the day...high
temperatures are forecast to lift into the upper 80`s to lower 90`s
along and north of I-10. Slightly lower highs by a category in the
mid 80`s along the beaches due to flow coming in off the Gulf. For
tonight...with slightly higher surface based moisture/higher
dewpoints...there are indications that support the potential of late
night patchy fog development. Overnight lows forecast in the mid 60`s
interior to lower 70`s coast. /10

SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...An upper ridge over the
eastern states weakens through Friday as an upper trof advances
across the Plains. An upper low meanwhile advances northward from
the Bahamas, including development of an associated surface low. An
east-west oriented surface ridge over the southeast states begins to
shift northward as the Bahamas system advances, but regardless
promotes a generally light southerly flow over the forecast area. Model
soundings show subsidence effects from the weakening ridging which will
promote continued dry conditions over the forecast area. Highs will
be mostly in the upper 80s inland with mid 80s near the coast. Lows
will be in the mid 60s inland with upper 60s/near 70 closer to the
coast. /29

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The Plains upper trof ejects
off across the Great Lakes region through Sunday while the system
north of the Bahamas moves to near the Carolinas, then weakens
through Tuesday. Upper ridging builds over the lower Mississippi
river region through Sunday then weakens through Tuesday during this
transition, while a surface ridge over the area weakens, possibly
yielding to the development of a surface trof extending from the
system over/near the Carolinas. Have opted to continue with a dry
forecast for Saturday, although a storm or two may develop, then
stayed with slight chance pops for Sunday and Monday, with slightly
higher pops for Tuesday as the environment becomes more conducive for
convection. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s, then
trend to around 90 for much of the area except for mid/upper 80s near
the coast. Lows Saturday night will range from the mid/upper 60s
inland to around 70 at the coast, then trend warmer to the upper 60s
inland with lower 70s near the coast by Monday night. /29

MARINE...Very little change in south to southeast flow through
Saturday noted in the coastal waters forecast as high pressure
extends from off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into the southeast. A weak
surface pressure pattern sets up on Sunday resulting in light winds
of varying direction. Seas around 2 feet through Thursday become 2 to
3 feet Friday and Saturday. Rain chances look slim to none through
the period. /10

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KMOB 250814
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
314 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...Upper air weather maps
show a short wave mid level ridge axis extending from the western
Gulf into the Lower Mississippi River Delta. This feature acts as a
shield over the local area from deep convection and severe storms
which continues to impact the plains states. A stark contrast in deep
layer moisture is advertised in the near term. Along the western
periphery of the deep layer ridge axis...forecasters note that layer
moisture (pwats increase to a range from 1.7 to 1.9 inches from the
Lower Mississippi River Delta to eastern Texas). Across the central
Gulf Coast...within the eastern periphery of the ridge axis (pwats
range from 1.2 to 1.4 inches on average by this afternoon. Despite
some moderation in deep moisture levels in comparison to the past few
days...larger scale subsidence from the upper ridge keeps mention of rain
out of the forecast. Surface high pressure continues to the east
with a light south to southeast wind flow forecast. Under a mix of
sun and developing fair weather cumulus clouds through the day...high
temperatures are forecast to lift into the upper 80`s to lower 90`s
along and north of I-10. Slightly lower highs by a category in the
mid 80`s along the beaches due to flow coming in off the Gulf. For
tonight...with slightly higher surface based moisture/higher
dewpoints...there are indications that support the potential of late
night patchy fog development. Overnight lows forecast in the mid 60`s
interior to lower 70`s coast. /10

.SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...An upper ridge over the
eastern states weakens through Friday as an upper trof advances
across the Plains. An upper low meanwhile advances northward from
the Bahamas, including development of an associated surface low. An
east-west oriented surface ridge over the southeast states begins to
shift northward as the Bahamas system advances, but regardless
promotes a generally light southerly flow over the forecast area. Model
soundings show subsidence effects from the weakening ridging which will
promote continued dry conditions over the forecast area. Highs will
be mostly in the upper 80s inland with mid 80s near the coast. Lows
will be in the mid 60s inland with upper 60s/near 70 closer to the
coast. /29

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The Plains upper trof ejects
off across the Great Lakes region through Sunday while the system
north of the Bahamas moves to near the Carolinas, then weakens
through Tuesday. Upper ridging builds over the lower Mississippi
river region through Sunday then weakens through Tuesday during this
transition, while a surface ridge over the area weakens, possibly
yielding to the development of a surface trof extending from the
system over/near the Carolinas. Have opted to continue with a dry
forecast for Saturday, although a storm or two may develop, then
stayed with slight chance pops for Sunday and Monday, with slightly
higher pops for Tuesday as the environment becomes more conducive for
convection. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s, then
trend to around 90 for much of the area except for mid/upper 80s near
the coast. Lows Saturday night will range from the mid/upper 60s
inland to around 70 at the coast, then trend warmer to the upper 60s
inland with lower 70s near the coast by Monday night. /29

&&

.MARINE...Very little change in south to southeast flow through
Saturday noted in the coastal waters forecast as high pressure
extends from off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into the southeast. A weak
surface pressure pattern sets up on Sunday resulting in light winds
of varying direction. Seas around 2 feet through Thursday become 2 to
3 feet Friday and Saturday. Rain chances look slim to none through
the period. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      88  66  86  67 /   0  10  10   0
Pensacola   86  71  85  70 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      84  72  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   90  63  89  64 /   0   0  10  10
Waynesboro  90  63  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
Camden      89  63  89  64 /  10   0  10  10
Crestview   91  63  90  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KBMX 250456
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Storms to the northwest over Arkansas, Western Tennessee, and
Northern Mississippi are moving to the southeast toward Alabama.
However, they have been decreasing in intensity on radar, showing
warming cloud tops on IR satellite and have dramatically decreased
in lightning activity with the loss of heating. Most of the models
do not have any precip making it into Central Alabama. The 00z
HRRR tries to bring in a light shower in the northwest counties
well after midnight, but will only carry some unmentioned 10 pops
in the grids as the probability is very low that any storms hold
together that far to the southeast. Have made only minimal changes
to the overnight lows. They will be milder once again tonight.
Have added in more cloud cover in the grids as we should get a
little increased cloudiness from the decaying storms.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Outside of the potential for a brief period of visibility
dropping to MVFR due to BR around sunrise at TOI, VFR and
rain-free conditions will be predominant through the period.
Winds will be calm tonight, becoming southerly 5-10 kts Wednesday
afternoon.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected through the week with only minimal
rain chances. Low level moisture will slowly increase through the
end of the week. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  88  61  89  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
Anniston    60  88  64  88  66 /   0  10   0  10  10
Birmingham  62  88  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  62  88  64  89  67 /   0  10   0  10  10
Calera      61  87  66  88  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Auburn      61  88  65  86  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Montgomery  62  90  66  91  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Troy        61  89  62  91  67 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250212
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
912 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Adjusted pops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temps across the cwa at 9 pm were in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Dewpoints were between 55 and 60 degrees. Convection now over sern
MO/nern AR/wrn TN will have a hard time moving east overnight due to
a large sfc high over much of the sern US. Also 00z u/a soundings
from OHX/BMX were fairly dry in the mid/lower levels. Did adjust pops
up a little over nw AL but still under 15 percent. New NAM model
coming in has all pcpn dissipating before in reaches the TN Valley
overnight. There may be a sprinkle or two over extreme nw AL but the
coverage and intensity should be very isolated. Otherwise did not
make any other changes to the fcst attm.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 559 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016)
For 00Z TAFs: A sfc high covers much of the sern us along with a
weak upper ridge. Convection over AR/MO will dissipate as it tries to
move east tonight. This is due to subsidence across the area and a
fairy dry atmosphere from 7H to the sfc. However will have sct/bkn
ci across the taf sites thru the fcst period. Otherwise vfr
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours for both KMSL and KHSV.

007

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




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