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000
FXUS64 KMOB 011355
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
855 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH TODAY GIVEN LATEST SWELL
OBSERVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE PRIMARY WAVE ENERGY PACKET AFFECTING OUR
AREA NOW IS NEAR 8 SEC AND 3.5 FT AT 42012. THE SOURCE OF THE LONG
PERIOD SWELL IS THE NEAR CONSTANT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE (CURRENTLY ~1020 HPA) TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER
THE SW GULFMEX (CURRENTLY ~1009 HPA) THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
ALONG WITH INCREASING TIDAL RANGE...AMONG OTHER CONTRIBUTORS...THIS
WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN THE RISK. LOOKS LIKE THIS ELEVATED RISK WILL
BE WITH US FOR THE NEXT 24-48 H. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS
OF LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST
AND NORTH.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

AVIATION [01.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 011355
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
855 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH TODAY GIVEN LATEST SWELL
OBSERVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE PRIMARY WAVE ENERGY PACKET AFFECTING OUR
AREA NOW IS NEAR 8 SEC AND 3.5 FT AT 42012. THE SOURCE OF THE LONG
PERIOD SWELL IS THE NEAR CONSTANT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE (CURRENTLY ~1020 HPA) TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER
THE SW GULFMEX (CURRENTLY ~1009 HPA) THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
ALONG WITH INCREASING TIDAL RANGE...AMONG OTHER CONTRIBUTORS...THIS
WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN THE RISK. LOOKS LIKE THIS ELEVATED RISK WILL
BE WITH US FOR THE NEXT 24-48 H. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS
OF LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST
AND NORTH.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

AVIATION [01.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 011226 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS
OF LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST
AND NORTH.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

&&

.AVIATION [01.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMOB 011226 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS
OF LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST
AND NORTH.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

&&

.AVIATION [01.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMOB 011226 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS
OF LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST
AND NORTH.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

&&

.AVIATION [01.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMOB 011226 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS
OF LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST
AND NORTH.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

&&

.AVIATION [01.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 011148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR AL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED...BUT WAS ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECTING ANY
TERMINALS AT RELEASE. THE OVERALL LACK OF MEAN MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE LIMITED THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WINDS WILL BE AROUND
6 KTS DAYTIME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 011148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR AL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED...BUT WAS ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECTING ANY
TERMINALS AT RELEASE. THE OVERALL LACK OF MEAN MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE LIMITED THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WINDS WILL BE AROUND
6 KTS DAYTIME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 011148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR AL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED...BUT WAS ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECTING ANY
TERMINALS AT RELEASE. THE OVERALL LACK OF MEAN MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE LIMITED THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WINDS WILL BE AROUND
6 KTS DAYTIME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 011148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR AL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED...BUT WAS ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECTING ANY
TERMINALS AT RELEASE. THE OVERALL LACK OF MEAN MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE LIMITED THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WINDS WILL BE AROUND
6 KTS DAYTIME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 011131 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA IS BEGINNING TO
AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A
BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER MID
WEST. THAT PARTICULAR TROUGH IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, REMNANTS
OF THE SHEARED TROUGH AXIS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAT OFFICIALLY RETURNS TODAY AS IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE HOT AND MUGGY BEGINNING TODAY AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

SL.77


DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANT VORTICITY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW AND WAA IN PLACE FOR LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES
TODAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS DOES EXIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE AL
AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA AND PORTIONS OF
S MIDDLE TN, THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, WITH A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ALONG
RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. NOW, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT SFC WINDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. THUS, THE REASON WHY FOG
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA TONIGHT.

BEFORE THE RIDGE COMPLETELY BUILDS OVER THE REGION, A FEW WEAK
EDDIES WITHIN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ARE DEPICTED BY THE MED
RANGE MODELS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ONE OF THESE
ARRIVES OVER THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY WITH AN ANTECEDENT TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING W TN/KY THAT LOOKS
TO STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SHOWING MODEST INSTABILITY PROFILES (I.E.
BTWN 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPES) ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A
MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LEFT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ATOP THE TN VALLEY IT MAY INHIBIT ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER FORECAST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE.

THE RIDGE THEN SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALBERTA/MANITOBA ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE RIDGE APPEARS TO
DAMPEN AND SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH PUSHES A WEAK SFC FRONT SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, WITH
THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES SHIFTING TO AN ALMOST PARALLEL ORIENTATION
TO THE NE TO WSW ORIENTED FRONT, EXPECTING SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS
IT APPROACHES THE OH/MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. FOR NOW,
WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR FOG/MIST THIS MORNING AT KMSL...
VFR WEATHER IS OTHERWISE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW 5-10KT FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER DUSK.
MVFR MIST/FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO KMSL LATE IN TAF.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011131 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA IS BEGINNING TO
AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A
BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER MID
WEST. THAT PARTICULAR TROUGH IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, REMNANTS
OF THE SHEARED TROUGH AXIS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAT OFFICIALLY RETURNS TODAY AS IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE HOT AND MUGGY BEGINNING TODAY AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

SL.77


DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANT VORTICITY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW AND WAA IN PLACE FOR LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES
TODAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS DOES EXIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE AL
AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA AND PORTIONS OF
S MIDDLE TN, THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, WITH A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ALONG
RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. NOW, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT SFC WINDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. THUS, THE REASON WHY FOG
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA TONIGHT.

BEFORE THE RIDGE COMPLETELY BUILDS OVER THE REGION, A FEW WEAK
EDDIES WITHIN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ARE DEPICTED BY THE MED
RANGE MODELS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ONE OF THESE
ARRIVES OVER THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY WITH AN ANTECEDENT TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING W TN/KY THAT LOOKS
TO STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SHOWING MODEST INSTABILITY PROFILES (I.E.
BTWN 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPES) ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A
MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LEFT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ATOP THE TN VALLEY IT MAY INHIBIT ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER FORECAST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE.

THE RIDGE THEN SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALBERTA/MANITOBA ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE RIDGE APPEARS TO
DAMPEN AND SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH PUSHES A WEAK SFC FRONT SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, WITH
THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES SHIFTING TO AN ALMOST PARALLEL ORIENTATION
TO THE NE TO WSW ORIENTED FRONT, EXPECTING SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS
IT APPROACHES THE OH/MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. FOR NOW,
WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR FOG/MIST THIS MORNING AT KMSL...
VFR WEATHER IS OTHERWISE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW 5-10KT FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER DUSK.
MVFR MIST/FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO KMSL LATE IN TAF.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011037
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT NO WIDESPREAD VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ANY OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 011037
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT NO WIDESPREAD VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ANY OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 010952
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS OF
LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST AND
NORTH.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

&&

.AVIATION...[31.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
02.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND
AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 010952
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS OF
LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST AND
NORTH.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

&&

.AVIATION...[31.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
02.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND
AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KHUN 010808
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
308 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA IS BEGINNING TO
AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A
BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER MID
WEST. THAT PARTICULAR TROUGH IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, REMNANTS
OF THE SHEARED TROUGH AXIS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAT OFFICIALLY RETURNS TODAY AS IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE HOT AND MUGGY BEGINNING TODAY AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANT VORTICITY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW AND WAA IN PLACE FOR LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES
TODAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS DOES EXIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE AL
AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA AND PORTIONS OF
S MIDDLE TN, THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, WITH A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ALONG
RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. NOW, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT SFC WINDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. THUS, THE REASON WHY FOG
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA TONIGHT.

BEFORE THE RIDGE COMPLETELY BUILDS OVER THE REGION, A FEW WEAK
EDDIES WITHIN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ARE DEPICTED BY THE MED
RANGE MODELS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ONE OF THESE
ARRIVES OVER THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY WITH AN ANTECEDENT TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING W TN/KY THAT LOOKS
TO STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SHOWING MODEST INSTABILITY PROFILES (I.E.
BTWN 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPES) ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A
MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LEFT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ATOP THE TN VALLEY IT MAY INHIBIT ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER FORECAST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE.

THE RIDGE THEN SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALBERTA/MANITOBA ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE RIDGE APPEARS TO
DAMPEN AND SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH PUSHES A WEAK SFC FRONT SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, WITH
THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES SHIFTING TO AN ALMOST PARALLEL ORIENTATION
TO THE NE TO WSW ORIENTED FRONT, EXPECTING SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS
IT APPROACHES THE OH/MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. FOR NOW,
WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1205 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...ISOLATED -RA HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
CWA. BKN/OVC AC CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHICH WERE
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER AR. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
WAVE ATTM. NEW MODEL DATA WAS SHOWING THAT BKN/OVC AC CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KMSL
WHERE SCT AC WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOG WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...FOR
NOW WILL KEEP PATCHY MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    95  74  94  70 /  20  10  20  20
SHOALS        95  74  94  70 /  10  10  20  20
VINEMONT      92  72  92  70 /  20  10  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  92  71  93  68 /  20  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   93  71  90  70 /  20  10  20  20
FORT PAYNE    93  71  93  68 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010514
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1214 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ONLY VERY THIN BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST. KEEPING ISOLATED
POPS IN THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THESE AREAS ONLY AS COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT INCREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH ONCE AGAIN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND WITH CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT NO WIDESPREAD VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ANY OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 010505 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED -SHRA STILL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER
WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN US AND LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING...THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRA AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

ANYHOW WILL KEEP 20 POPS TIL MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT FOG FORMATION
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. ATTM STLT TRENDS ARE SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WAS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...ISOLATED -RA HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
CWA. BKN/OVC AC CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHICH WERE
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER AR. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
WAVE ATTM. NEW MODEL DATA WAS SHOWING THAT BKN/OVC AC CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KMSL
WHERE SCT AC WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOG WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...FOR
NOW WILL KEEP PATCHY MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010505 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED -SHRA STILL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER
WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN US AND LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING...THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRA AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

ANYHOW WILL KEEP 20 POPS TIL MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT FOG FORMATION
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. ATTM STLT TRENDS ARE SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WAS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...ISOLATED -RA HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
CWA. BKN/OVC AC CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHICH WERE
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER AR. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
WAVE ATTM. NEW MODEL DATA WAS SHOWING THAT BKN/OVC AC CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KMSL
WHERE SCT AC WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOG WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...FOR
NOW WILL KEEP PATCHY MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010448 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION (01.06Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO CALM WIND
OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS BASES ON LABOR DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT
RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SEABREEZE. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE [TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE CARRIED
OVER INTO THE EVENING FROM THE AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO A DIURNAL
MINIMUM IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE EVENING. VERY LITTLE LEFT ON RADAR AND
HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TO LESS THAN
10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM. /10

SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS
A RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. DESPITE THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR
DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL
PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10
CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20%
ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96 DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE
THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S
MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73
DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 010448 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION (01.06Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO CALM WIND
OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS BASES ON LABOR DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT
RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SEABREEZE. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE [TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE CARRIED
OVER INTO THE EVENING FROM THE AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO A DIURNAL
MINIMUM IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE EVENING. VERY LITTLE LEFT ON RADAR AND
HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TO LESS THAN
10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM. /10

SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS
A RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. DESPITE THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR
DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL
PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10
CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20%
ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96 DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE
THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S
MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73
DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 010448 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION (01.06Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO CALM WIND
OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS BASES ON LABOR DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT
RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SEABREEZE. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE [TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE CARRIED
OVER INTO THE EVENING FROM THE AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO A DIURNAL
MINIMUM IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE EVENING. VERY LITTLE LEFT ON RADAR AND
HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TO LESS THAN
10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM. /10

SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS
A RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. DESPITE THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR
DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL
PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10
CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20%
ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96 DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE
THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S
MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73
DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 010448 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION (01.06Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO CALM WIND
OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS BASES ON LABOR DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT
RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SEABREEZE. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE [TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE CARRIED
OVER INTO THE EVENING FROM THE AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO A DIURNAL
MINIMUM IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE EVENING. VERY LITTLE LEFT ON RADAR AND
HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TO LESS THAN
10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM. /10

SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS
A RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. DESPITE THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR
DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL
PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10
CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20%
ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96 DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE
THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S
MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73
DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 010254 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
954 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ONLY VERY THIN BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST. KEEPING ISOLATED
POPS IN THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THESE AREAS ONLY AS COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT INCREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH ONCE AGAIN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND WITH CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...NO MAJOR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY VCTS IN THE TAF DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

56/GDG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS PULLED OFF TO THE NORTH WITH
UPPER RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

LABOR DAY WILL BE HOT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  93  70  93  68 /  10  20  10  20  20
ANNISTON    71  93  71  92  70 /  10  20  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  93  75  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  95  73  94  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
CALERA      72  93  73  93  72 /  10  20  10  20  20
AUBURN      71  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  72  95  73  95  73 /  10  20  10  20  20
TROY        71  94  71  93  71 /  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/56/88






000
FXUS64 KBMX 010254 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
954 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ONLY VERY THIN BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST. KEEPING ISOLATED
POPS IN THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THESE AREAS ONLY AS COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT INCREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH ONCE AGAIN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND WITH CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...NO MAJOR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY VCTS IN THE TAF DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

56/GDG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS PULLED OFF TO THE NORTH WITH
UPPER RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

LABOR DAY WILL BE HOT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  93  70  93  68 /  10  20  10  20  20
ANNISTON    71  93  71  92  70 /  10  20  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  93  75  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  95  73  94  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
CALERA      72  93  73  93  72 /  10  20  10  20  20
AUBURN      71  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  72  95  73  95  73 /  10  20  10  20  20
TROY        71  94  71  93  71 /  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/56/88





000
FXUS64 KHUN 010235
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED THUNDER OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED -SHRA STILL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER
WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN US AND LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING...THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRA AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

ANYHOW WILL KEEP 20 POPS TIL MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT FOG FORMATION
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. ATTM STLT TRENDS ARE SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WAS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WEAK UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MRNG/AFTN CONTINUES TO MOVE NE TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT. TOOK OUT
PCPN AT KMSL TAF BUT WILL LEAVE VCSH IN FOR KHSV UNTIL 02Z. AFTER
02Z OVC/BKN AC CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCT ALLOWING FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG TO
FORM AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010235
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED THUNDER OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED -SHRA STILL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER
WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN US AND LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING...THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRA AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

ANYHOW WILL KEEP 20 POPS TIL MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT FOG FORMATION
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. ATTM STLT TRENDS ARE SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WAS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WEAK UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MRNG/AFTN CONTINUES TO MOVE NE TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT. TOOK OUT
PCPN AT KMSL TAF BUT WILL LEAVE VCSH IN FOR KHSV UNTIL 02Z. AFTER
02Z OVC/BKN AC CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCT ALLOWING FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG TO
FORM AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
750 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE [TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE CARRIED
OVER INTO THE EVENING FROM THE AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO A DIURNAL
MINIMUM IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE EVENING. VERY LITTLE LEFT ON RADAR AND
HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TO LESS THAN
10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM. /10

SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS
A RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. DESPITE THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR
DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL
PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10
CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20%
ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96 DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE
THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S
MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73
DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 010050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
750 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE [TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE CARRIED
OVER INTO THE EVENING FROM THE AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO A DIURNAL
MINIMUM IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE EVENING. VERY LITTLE LEFT ON RADAR AND
HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TO LESS THAN
10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM. /10

SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS
A RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. DESPITE THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR
DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL
PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10
CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20%
ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96 DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE
THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S
MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73
DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 010025
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
725 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS PULLED OFF TO THE NORTH WITH
UPPER RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

LABOR DAY WILL BE HOT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...NO MAJOR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY VCTS IN THE TAF DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  93  70  93  68 /  20  20  10  20  20
ANNISTON    71  93  71  92  70 /  20  20  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  74  93  75  93  74 /  20  20  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  95  73  94  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
CALERA      73  93  73  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
AUBURN      72  93  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  20  20  10  20  20
TROY        72  94  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 010025
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
725 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS PULLED OFF TO THE NORTH WITH
UPPER RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

LABOR DAY WILL BE HOT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...NO MAJOR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY VCTS IN THE TAF DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  93  70  93  68 /  20  20  10  20  20
ANNISTON    71  93  71  92  70 /  20  20  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  74  93  75  93  74 /  20  20  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  95  73  94  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
CALERA      73  93  73  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
AUBURN      72  93  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  20  20  10  20  20
TROY        72  94  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 312335
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WEAK UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MRNG/AFTN CONTINUES TO MOVE NE TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT. TOOK OUT
PCPN AT KMSL TAF BUT WILL LEAVE VCSH IN FOR KHSV UNTIL 02Z. AFTER
02Z OVC/BKN AC CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCT ALLOWING FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG TO
FORM AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 312319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY)...SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP
THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS A RETURN TO A MORE
PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL
WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR REGION. DESPITE
THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT
LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS
TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY
FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20% ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96
DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73 DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR
THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  20  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  20  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 312319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY)...SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP
THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS A RETURN TO A MORE
PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL
WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR REGION. DESPITE
THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT
LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS
TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY
FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20% ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96
DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73 DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR
THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  20  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  20  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 312014
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS PULLED OFF TO THE NORTH WITH
UPPER RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

LABOR DAY WILL BE HOT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT THAT MUCH WAY IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
TAF SITES. INCLUDED VCSH THROUGH 21Z THEN VCTS THROUGH 01Z FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED. ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED SO HARD TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. FOR THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL JUST GO WITH A SCT TO BKN CU DECK WITH THE MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION AS CHANCES JUST APPEAR TO LOW. AT THIS TIME. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TOI FOR ANY INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.

CLOUDS CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
TOI AND MGM. FOR THE NORTH...THINKING IS THAT IT MAY BE MORE OF A
COMBO OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY REDUCE THE AREA TO MVFR IN THE 8
TO 14Z TIME FRAME.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  93  70  93  68 /  20  20  10  20  20
ANNISTON    71  93  71  92  70 /  20  20  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  74  93  75  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  95  73  94  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
CALERA      73  93  73  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
AUBURN      72  93  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  20  20  10  20  20
TROY        72  94  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 311936
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY)...SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP
THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS A RETURN TO A MORE
PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL
WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR REGION. DESPITE
THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT
LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS
TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY
FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20% ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96
DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73 DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR
THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACHGOERS...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...NOT MUCH CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 01.18Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
(ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 31.23 UTC). SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH INCREASING TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH LATE MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS FROM 01.12 TO 01.16 UTC WILL BRING
ABOUT SOME OCNL MVFR CIGS IN 020-025 RANGE UNTIL AFTERNOON MIXING
KICKS IN AND CLOUDS BECOME MORE FEW-SCT. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT
FURTHER RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  94  72 /  20  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  20  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  93  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 311936
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY)...SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP
THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS A RETURN TO A MORE
PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL
WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR REGION. DESPITE
THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT
LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS
TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY
FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20% ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96
DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73 DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR
THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACHGOERS...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...NOT MUCH CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 01.18Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
(ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 31.23 UTC). SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH INCREASING TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH LATE MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS FROM 01.12 TO 01.16 UTC WILL BRING
ABOUT SOME OCNL MVFR CIGS IN 020-025 RANGE UNTIL AFTERNOON MIXING
KICKS IN AND CLOUDS BECOME MORE FEW-SCT. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT
FURTHER RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  94  72 /  20  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  20  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  93  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 311927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDUCE VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
REDUCTION OF CLOUD COVER COVER AT BOTH TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KHSV
SINCE THEY HAD MORE RAINFALL TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  93  73  94 /  20  10  10  20
SHOALS        70  93  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
VINEMONT      70  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  69  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   69  89  71  90 /  20  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    68  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDUCE VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
REDUCTION OF CLOUD COVER COVER AT BOTH TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KHSV
SINCE THEY HAD MORE RAINFALL TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  93  73  94 /  20  10  10  20
SHOALS        70  93  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
VINEMONT      70  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  69  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   69  89  71  90 /  20  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    68  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDUCE VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
REDUCTION OF CLOUD COVER COVER AT BOTH TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KHSV
SINCE THEY HAD MORE RAINFALL TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  93  73  94 /  20  10  10  20
SHOALS        70  93  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
VINEMONT      70  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  69  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   69  89  71  90 /  20  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    68  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDUCE VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
REDUCTION OF CLOUD COVER COVER AT BOTH TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KHSV
SINCE THEY HAD MORE RAINFALL TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  93  73  94 /  20  10  10  20
SHOALS        70  93  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
VINEMONT      70  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  69  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   69  89  71  90 /  20  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    68  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311752 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1103 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC STILL HAS A LITTLE BIT OF INFLUENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...CAN SEE ON SATELLITE THE GULF MOISTURE FLOW STRETCH
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE MOVED THROUGH MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE HUN CWA THIS MORNING. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN NW AL. STARTING OUT WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECTING TEMPS TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH NE AL ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD...THEY COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND GET ABOVE
THAT. WITH THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASED...WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY TODAY. PWATS ARE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...AROUND 2 INCHES.

ADJUSTED TEMPS IN NE AL BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR TRENDS. LOWERED THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 18Z TODAY AS ONLY THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES HAVE REALLY RECEIVED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG
A NORTHEAST AXIS. AS SUCH...ADJUSTED QPF AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDUCE VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
REDUCTION OF CLOUD COVER COVER AT BOTH TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KHSV
SINCE THEY HAD MORE RAINFALL TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311752 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1103 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC STILL HAS A LITTLE BIT OF INFLUENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...CAN SEE ON SATELLITE THE GULF MOISTURE FLOW STRETCH
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE MOVED THROUGH MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE HUN CWA THIS MORNING. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN NW AL. STARTING OUT WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECTING TEMPS TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH NE AL ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD...THEY COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND GET ABOVE
THAT. WITH THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASED...WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY TODAY. PWATS ARE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...AROUND 2 INCHES.

ADJUSTED TEMPS IN NE AL BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR TRENDS. LOWERED THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 18Z TODAY AS ONLY THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES HAVE REALLY RECEIVED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG
A NORTHEAST AXIS. AS SUCH...ADJUSTED QPF AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDUCE VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
REDUCTION OF CLOUD COVER COVER AT BOTH TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KHSV
SINCE THEY HAD MORE RAINFALL TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311742
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NORTHWEST...CLOSEST TO
THE OVERALL TROUGH IN PLACE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY HERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IN THE
REGION WE ARE SEEING A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS SAY SOUTH OF I-20. SINCE
WE HAVE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGION. AS WE FOCUS ON THE
MESO SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WE HAVE  BEEN WATCHING A BOUNDARY
WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LEAD
TO THE WAY OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY LINE SO RAISED POPS UP HERE AS
WELL TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND MADE
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES HERE...MAINLY HOURLY. DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT THAT MUCH WAY IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
TAF SITES. INCLUDED VCSH THROUGH 21Z THEN VCTS THROUGH 01Z FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED. ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED SO HARD TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. FOR THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL JUST GO WITH A SCT TO BKN CU DECK WITH THE MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION AS CHANCES JUST APPEAR TO LOW. AT THIS TIME. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TOI FOR ANY INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.

CLOUDS CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
TOI AND MGM. FOR THE NORTH...THINKING IS THAT IT MAY BE MORE OF A
COMBO OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY REDUCE THE AREA TO MVFR IN THE 8
TO 14Z TIME FRAME.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 311742
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...[31.18 UTC ISSUANCE]...NOT MUCH CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 01.18Z. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING (ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 31.23 UTC). SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH INCREASING TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS FROM 01.12 TO 01.16 UTC WILL
BRING ABOUT SOME OCNL MVFR CIGS IN 020-025 RANGE UNTIL AFTERNOON
MIXING KICKS IN AND CLOUDS BECOME MORE FEW-SCT. /23 JMM

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

...RIP CURRENT THREAT REMAINS MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...THE RAINFALL PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EVOLVE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST (WHICH IS ALREADY
OCCURRING)AND PROPAGATING / ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LARGE SCALE RAINBAND TO OUR WEST WHICH FORMED IN CONFLUENT ZONE
BETWEEN IMPINGING LARGE SCALE MIDWESTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN
EXTENSION OF BERMUDA RIDGE HAS WEAKENED AND THERE IS LESS FORECAST
COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY OVER OUR INTERIOR SE MS ZONES. RAISED
POPS BY 10% THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS PER LATEST TRENDS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE...MOSTLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST NORTH OF THE FL/AL LINE AND EXTENDING INTO
INTERIOR SE MS. MOST OF WHAT YOU COULD EXPECT WOULD BE LOCAL 40-50
MPH WIND GUSTS DUE TO WATER LOADING EFFECTS IN THE DOWNDRAFT (VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY). STORM MOTION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
15-20 MPH (A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY BECAUSE THE LARGE SCALE
GRADIENT INFLUENCING THE CLOUD LAYER STEERING FLOW HAS WEAKENED).
DID TWEAK TEMPS TO LOWER ABOUT 1 DEG (F) ON AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND QPF
TO SHOW MORE DEFINED INLAND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO CHANGE TO RIP CURRENT FORECAST (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). WHILE
TIDAL RANGE HAS COME UP A BIT MOVING OUT OF A NEAP CYCLE...IT IS NOT
ENOUGH ALONG WITH 7 SEC/3FT SWELL TO PUSH IT  TO THE NEXT HIGHEST
CATEGORY. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...LATEST LOCAL SWELL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE  3 FEET IS
SOLID BEING CONTRIBUTED TO BE THE 7 SEC ENERGY PACKET (MOVING NWD)
AS WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 KT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO...SOME
SLOW ROLLERS TODAY NEAR 3 FEET. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES IN THEIR VICINITY.
/23 JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

















000
FXUS64 KBMX 311742
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NORTHWEST...CLOSEST TO
THE OVERALL TROUGH IN PLACE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY HERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IN THE
REGION WE ARE SEEING A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS SAY SOUTH OF I-20. SINCE
WE HAVE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGION. AS WE FOCUS ON THE
MESO SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WE HAVE  BEEN WATCHING A BOUNDARY
WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LEAD
TO THE WAY OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY LINE SO RAISED POPS UP HERE AS
WELL TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND MADE
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES HERE...MAINLY HOURLY. DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT THAT MUCH WAY IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
TAF SITES. INCLUDED VCSH THROUGH 21Z THEN VCTS THROUGH 01Z FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED. ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED SO HARD TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. FOR THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL JUST GO WITH A SCT TO BKN CU DECK WITH THE MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION AS CHANCES JUST APPEAR TO LOW. AT THIS TIME. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TOI FOR ANY INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.

CLOUDS CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
TOI AND MGM. FOR THE NORTH...THINKING IS THAT IT MAY BE MORE OF A
COMBO OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY REDUCE THE AREA TO MVFR IN THE 8
TO 14Z TIME FRAME.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 311742
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...[31.18 UTC ISSUANCE]...NOT MUCH CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 01.18Z. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING (ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 31.23 UTC). SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH INCREASING TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS FROM 01.12 TO 01.16 UTC WILL
BRING ABOUT SOME OCNL MVFR CIGS IN 020-025 RANGE UNTIL AFTERNOON
MIXING KICKS IN AND CLOUDS BECOME MORE FEW-SCT. /23 JMM

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

...RIP CURRENT THREAT REMAINS MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...THE RAINFALL PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EVOLVE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST (WHICH IS ALREADY
OCCURRING)AND PROPAGATING / ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LARGE SCALE RAINBAND TO OUR WEST WHICH FORMED IN CONFLUENT ZONE
BETWEEN IMPINGING LARGE SCALE MIDWESTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN
EXTENSION OF BERMUDA RIDGE HAS WEAKENED AND THERE IS LESS FORECAST
COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY OVER OUR INTERIOR SE MS ZONES. RAISED
POPS BY 10% THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS PER LATEST TRENDS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE...MOSTLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST NORTH OF THE FL/AL LINE AND EXTENDING INTO
INTERIOR SE MS. MOST OF WHAT YOU COULD EXPECT WOULD BE LOCAL 40-50
MPH WIND GUSTS DUE TO WATER LOADING EFFECTS IN THE DOWNDRAFT (VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY). STORM MOTION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
15-20 MPH (A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY BECAUSE THE LARGE SCALE
GRADIENT INFLUENCING THE CLOUD LAYER STEERING FLOW HAS WEAKENED).
DID TWEAK TEMPS TO LOWER ABOUT 1 DEG (F) ON AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND QPF
TO SHOW MORE DEFINED INLAND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO CHANGE TO RIP CURRENT FORECAST (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). WHILE
TIDAL RANGE HAS COME UP A BIT MOVING OUT OF A NEAP CYCLE...IT IS NOT
ENOUGH ALONG WITH 7 SEC/3FT SWELL TO PUSH IT  TO THE NEXT HIGHEST
CATEGORY. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...LATEST LOCAL SWELL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE  3 FEET IS
SOLID BEING CONTRIBUTED TO BE THE 7 SEC ENERGY PACKET (MOVING NWD)
AS WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 KT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO...SOME
SLOW ROLLERS TODAY NEAR 3 FEET. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES IN THEIR VICINITY.
/23 JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

















000
FXUS64 KHUN 311603 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1103 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC STILL HAS A LITTLE BIT OF INFLUENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...CAN SEE ON SATELLITE THE GULF MOISTURE FLOW STRETCH
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE MOVED THROUGH MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE HUN CWA THIS MORNING. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN NW AL. STARTING OUT WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECTING TEMPS TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH NE AL ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD...THEY COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND GET ABOVE
THAT. WITH THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASED...WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY TODAY. PWATS ARE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...AROUND 2 INCHES.

ADJUSTED TEMPS IN NE AL BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR TRENDS. LOWERED THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 18Z TODAY AS ONLY THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES HAVE REALLY RECEIVED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG
A NORTHEAST AXIS. AS SUCH...ADJUSTED QPF AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH
DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 13-17Z AT BOTH TAF SITES AS MORE
SHRA ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OSCILLATIONS BTWN VFR AND
MVFR (IF NOT LOWER) CATEGORY IS LIKELY AGAIN BTWN 19-00Z AS
TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME PERIOD BTWN
00Z-12Z. HOWEVER, FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY DURING THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR TO IFR CAT BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
A DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SOUTH OF A NORTHERN ALASKA UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD. A COPIOUS STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SIMILARLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAS MADE FOR A VERY MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS PRESENTLY AROUND 2 INCHES.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED MOVING TO THE
NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING OCCURRED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
NE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
WEST OF I-65. ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AN
AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINS HAD OCCURRED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS RAIN HAS MADE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION A POSSIBILITY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FORMING WEST OF JACKSON MS...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PER GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HIRES AWR/NMM...HAVE INCHED
LIKELY POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...AND LEFT 50 POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION A POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR LABOR DAY MORNING.

MONDAY OTHERWISE SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON TUE...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT NEARING THE AREA. THE
ECMWF AND NAM WAS SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THAT BOUNDARY. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF US SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER (AND MAYBE A FEW MID 90S)...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF PERIOD. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WARRANT LOWER
END CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SAT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311603 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1103 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC STILL HAS A LITTLE BIT OF INFLUENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...CAN SEE ON SATELLITE THE GULF MOISTURE FLOW STRETCH
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE MOVED THROUGH MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE HUN CWA THIS MORNING. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN NW AL. STARTING OUT WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECTING TEMPS TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH NE AL ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD...THEY COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND GET ABOVE
THAT. WITH THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASED...WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY TODAY. PWATS ARE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...AROUND 2 INCHES.

ADJUSTED TEMPS IN NE AL BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR TRENDS. LOWERED THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 18Z TODAY AS ONLY THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES HAVE REALLY RECEIVED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG
A NORTHEAST AXIS. AS SUCH...ADJUSTED QPF AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH
DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 13-17Z AT BOTH TAF SITES AS MORE
SHRA ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OSCILLATIONS BTWN VFR AND
MVFR (IF NOT LOWER) CATEGORY IS LIKELY AGAIN BTWN 19-00Z AS
TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME PERIOD BTWN
00Z-12Z. HOWEVER, FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY DURING THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR TO IFR CAT BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
A DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SOUTH OF A NORTHERN ALASKA UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD. A COPIOUS STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SIMILARLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAS MADE FOR A VERY MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS PRESENTLY AROUND 2 INCHES.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED MOVING TO THE
NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING OCCURRED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
NE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
WEST OF I-65. ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AN
AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINS HAD OCCURRED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS RAIN HAS MADE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION A POSSIBILITY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FORMING WEST OF JACKSON MS...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PER GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HIRES AWR/NMM...HAVE INCHED
LIKELY POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...AND LEFT 50 POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION A POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR LABOR DAY MORNING.

MONDAY OTHERWISE SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON TUE...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT NEARING THE AREA. THE
ECMWF AND NAM WAS SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THAT BOUNDARY. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF US SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER (AND MAYBE A FEW MID 90S)...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF PERIOD. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WARRANT LOWER
END CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SAT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311503
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NORTHWEST...CLOSEST TO
THE OVERALL TROUGH IN PLACE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY HERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IN THE
REGION WE ARE SEEING A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS SAY SOUTH OF I-20. SINCE
WE HAVE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGION. AS WE FOCUS ON THE
MESO SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WE HAVE  BEEN WATCHING A BOUNDARY
WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LEAD
TO THE WAY OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY LINE SO RAISED POPS UP HERE AS
WELL TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND MADE
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES HERE...MAINLY HOURLY. DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WEST HALF OF THE AIR THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SATURATED AND TCL/BHM/EET HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EXPERIENCING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH
AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR TCL/BHM/EET.
WILL MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS BUT MAY INCLUDE VCSH. THE
AREA NEAR I-20 AND NORTH ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 14-16Z AND THEN ON AND OFF VFR
CEILINGS. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KTS.

FOR ANB/MGM/TOI...THE LOW CLOUD LIFTING MECHANISMS DID NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GOOD...THEREFORE WILL GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS/VIS.
THESE CLOUDS LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SCT-BKN VFR. ANB APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT NOT QUITE TO THE
LEVEL FOR MENTION JUST YET. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER AT MGM/TOI AND
CONFIDENCE/CHANCES ARE TO LOW FOR ANY MENTION.

LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO
OUR EAST AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 6 TO 9
KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AT NIGHT.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
INFLUENCE FOR THE WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES AREA BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WITH A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE LEFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATED. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS PRODUCED CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BELOW 500 FEET. THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. PW VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE MID-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LIFT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
SOME LIFT MAY LINGER FROM THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE WITH THIS INTRODUCTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THE
MICROBURST PARAMETERS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY STORMS TO FORM.
FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT IF A STRONG STORM FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST TO START THE WORK WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MORE OF A SEASONAL PATTERN WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  93  70  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
ANNISTON    91  70  93  71  93 /  20  20  30  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  91  73  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  71  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  10  20
CALERA      91  72  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      92  71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20  20
MONTGOMERY  94  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
TROY        94  71  94  72  95 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 311503
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NORTHWEST...CLOSEST TO
THE OVERALL TROUGH IN PLACE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY HERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IN THE
REGION WE ARE SEEING A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS SAY SOUTH OF I-20. SINCE
WE HAVE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGION. AS WE FOCUS ON THE
MESO SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WE HAVE  BEEN WATCHING A BOUNDARY
WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LEAD
TO THE WAY OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY LINE SO RAISED POPS UP HERE AS
WELL TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND MADE
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES HERE...MAINLY HOURLY. DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WEST HALF OF THE AIR THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SATURATED AND TCL/BHM/EET HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EXPERIENCING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH
AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR TCL/BHM/EET.
WILL MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS BUT MAY INCLUDE VCSH. THE
AREA NEAR I-20 AND NORTH ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 14-16Z AND THEN ON AND OFF VFR
CEILINGS. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KTS.

FOR ANB/MGM/TOI...THE LOW CLOUD LIFTING MECHANISMS DID NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GOOD...THEREFORE WILL GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS/VIS.
THESE CLOUDS LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SCT-BKN VFR. ANB APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT NOT QUITE TO THE
LEVEL FOR MENTION JUST YET. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER AT MGM/TOI AND
CONFIDENCE/CHANCES ARE TO LOW FOR ANY MENTION.

LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO
OUR EAST AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 6 TO 9
KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AT NIGHT.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
INFLUENCE FOR THE WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES AREA BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WITH A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE LEFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATED. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS PRODUCED CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BELOW 500 FEET. THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. PW VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE MID-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LIFT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
SOME LIFT MAY LINGER FROM THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE WITH THIS INTRODUCTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THE
MICROBURST PARAMETERS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY STORMS TO FORM.
FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT IF A STRONG STORM FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST TO START THE WORK WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MORE OF A SEASONAL PATTERN WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  93  70  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
ANNISTON    91  70  93  71  93 /  20  20  30  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  91  73  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  71  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  10  20
CALERA      91  72  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      92  71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20  20
MONTGOMERY  94  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
TROY        94  71  94  72  95 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 311503
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NORTHWEST...CLOSEST TO
THE OVERALL TROUGH IN PLACE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY HERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IN THE
REGION WE ARE SEEING A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS SAY SOUTH OF I-20. SINCE
WE HAVE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGION. AS WE FOCUS ON THE
MESO SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WE HAVE  BEEN WATCHING A BOUNDARY
WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LEAD
TO THE WAY OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY LINE SO RAISED POPS UP HERE AS
WELL TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND MADE
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES HERE...MAINLY HOURLY. DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WEST HALF OF THE AIR THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SATURATED AND TCL/BHM/EET HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EXPERIENCING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH
AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR TCL/BHM/EET.
WILL MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS BUT MAY INCLUDE VCSH. THE
AREA NEAR I-20 AND NORTH ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 14-16Z AND THEN ON AND OFF VFR
CEILINGS. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KTS.

FOR ANB/MGM/TOI...THE LOW CLOUD LIFTING MECHANISMS DID NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GOOD...THEREFORE WILL GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS/VIS.
THESE CLOUDS LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SCT-BKN VFR. ANB APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT NOT QUITE TO THE
LEVEL FOR MENTION JUST YET. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER AT MGM/TOI AND
CONFIDENCE/CHANCES ARE TO LOW FOR ANY MENTION.

LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO
OUR EAST AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 6 TO 9
KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AT NIGHT.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
INFLUENCE FOR THE WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES AREA BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WITH A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE LEFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATED. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS PRODUCED CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BELOW 500 FEET. THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. PW VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE MID-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LIFT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
SOME LIFT MAY LINGER FROM THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE WITH THIS INTRODUCTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THE
MICROBURST PARAMETERS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY STORMS TO FORM.
FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT IF A STRONG STORM FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST TO START THE WORK WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MORE OF A SEASONAL PATTERN WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  93  70  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
ANNISTON    91  70  93  71  93 /  20  20  30  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  91  73  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  71  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  10  20
CALERA      91  72  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      92  71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20  20
MONTGOMERY  94  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
TROY        94  71  94  72  95 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 311503
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NORTHWEST...CLOSEST TO
THE OVERALL TROUGH IN PLACE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY HERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IN THE
REGION WE ARE SEEING A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS SAY SOUTH OF I-20. SINCE
WE HAVE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGION. AS WE FOCUS ON THE
MESO SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WE HAVE  BEEN WATCHING A BOUNDARY
WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LEAD
TO THE WAY OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY LINE SO RAISED POPS UP HERE AS
WELL TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND MADE
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES HERE...MAINLY HOURLY. DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WEST HALF OF THE AIR THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SATURATED AND TCL/BHM/EET HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EXPERIENCING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH
AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR TCL/BHM/EET.
WILL MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS BUT MAY INCLUDE VCSH. THE
AREA NEAR I-20 AND NORTH ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 14-16Z AND THEN ON AND OFF VFR
CEILINGS. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KTS.

FOR ANB/MGM/TOI...THE LOW CLOUD LIFTING MECHANISMS DID NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GOOD...THEREFORE WILL GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS/VIS.
THESE CLOUDS LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SCT-BKN VFR. ANB APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT NOT QUITE TO THE
LEVEL FOR MENTION JUST YET. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER AT MGM/TOI AND
CONFIDENCE/CHANCES ARE TO LOW FOR ANY MENTION.

LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO
OUR EAST AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 6 TO 9
KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AT NIGHT.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
INFLUENCE FOR THE WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES AREA BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WITH A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE LEFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATED. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS PRODUCED CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BELOW 500 FEET. THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. PW VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE MID-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LIFT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
SOME LIFT MAY LINGER FROM THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE WITH THIS INTRODUCTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THE
MICROBURST PARAMETERS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY STORMS TO FORM.
FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT IF A STRONG STORM FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST TO START THE WORK WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MORE OF A SEASONAL PATTERN WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  93  70  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
ANNISTON    91  70  93  71  93 /  20  20  30  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  91  73  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  71  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  10  20
CALERA      91  72  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      92  71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20  20
MONTGOMERY  94  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
TROY        94  71  94  72  95 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 311448
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
948 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...RIP CURRENT THREAT REMAINS MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...THE RAINFALL PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EVOLVE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST (WHICH IS ALREADY
OCCURRING)AND PROPAGATING / ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LARGE SCALE RAINBAND TO OUR WEST WHICH FORMED IN CONFLUENT ZONE
BETWEEN IMPINGING LARGE SCALE MIDWESTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN
EXTENSION OF BERMUDA RIDGE HAS WEAKENED AND THERE IS LESS FORECAST
COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY OVER OUR INTERIOR SE MS ZONES. RAISED
POPS BY 10% THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS PER LATEST TRENDS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE...MOSTLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST NORTH OF THE FL/AL LINE AND EXTENDING INTO
INTERIOR SE MS. MOST OF WHAT YOU COULD EXPECT WOULD BE LOCAL 40-50
MPH WIND GUSTS DUE TO WATER LOADING EFFECTS IN THE DOWNDRAFT (VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY). STORM MOTION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
15-20 MPH (A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY BECAUSE THE LARGE SCALE
GRADIENT INFLUENCING THE CLOUD LAYER STEERING FLOW HAS WEAKENED).
DID TWEAK TEMPS TO LOWER ABOUT 1 DEG (F) ON AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND QPF
TO SHOW MORE DEFINED INLAND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO CHANGE TO RIP CURRENT FORECAST (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). WHILE
TIDAL RANGE HAS COME UP A BIT MOVING OUT OF A NEAP CYCLE...IT IS NOT
ENOUGH ALONG WITH 7 SEC/3FT SWELL TO PUSH IT  TO THE NEXT HIGHEST
CATEGORY. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...LATEST LOCAL SWELL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE  3 FEET IS
SOLID BEING CONTRIBUTED TO BE THE 7 SEC ENERGY PACKET (MOVING NWD)
AS WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 KT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO...SOME
SLOW ROLLERS TODAY NEAR 3 FEET. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES IN THEIR VICINITY.
/23 JMM

&&

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WESTERN EXTENT OF BERMUDA RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF
OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. TO
THE EAST LATEST SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW A FAIRLY
LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING WEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROF MOVING OFF THE WEST FL COAST
EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
ALSO SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND LATER IN
THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS A
RESULT THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE EARLY TODAY
TRANSITIONING INLAND MOSTLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY LIMITING THE
GROWTH AND INTENSITY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION. MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OR END
QUICKLY BY SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG BOTH THIS MORNING AND MON MORNING NEAR
SUNRISE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN
YESTERDAY WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE...MOSTLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PRESENT FOR A
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...UPPER
70S NEAR THE COAST. /13

&&

.AVIATION [31.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 01.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
INCREASING TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE GENERATED FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DUE TO THE
BETTER FETCH LENGTH THIS ROUND STRETCHING WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  75  93  75  93 /  20  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   90  77  92  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      88  79  90  78  91 /  30  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  72  95 /  30  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  93  72  94  73  93 /  20  10  20  10  30
CAMDEN      95  71  95  72  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
CRESTVIEW   93  71  95  73  95 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMOB 311448
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
948 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...RIP CURRENT THREAT REMAINS MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...THE RAINFALL PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EVOLVE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST (WHICH IS ALREADY
OCCURRING)AND PROPAGATING / ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LARGE SCALE RAINBAND TO OUR WEST WHICH FORMED IN CONFLUENT ZONE
BETWEEN IMPINGING LARGE SCALE MIDWESTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN
EXTENSION OF BERMUDA RIDGE HAS WEAKENED AND THERE IS LESS FORECAST
COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY OVER OUR INTERIOR SE MS ZONES. RAISED
POPS BY 10% THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS PER LATEST TRENDS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE...MOSTLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST NORTH OF THE FL/AL LINE AND EXTENDING INTO
INTERIOR SE MS. MOST OF WHAT YOU COULD EXPECT WOULD BE LOCAL 40-50
MPH WIND GUSTS DUE TO WATER LOADING EFFECTS IN THE DOWNDRAFT (VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY). STORM MOTION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
15-20 MPH (A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY BECAUSE THE LARGE SCALE
GRADIENT INFLUENCING THE CLOUD LAYER STEERING FLOW HAS WEAKENED).
DID TWEAK TEMPS TO LOWER ABOUT 1 DEG (F) ON AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND QPF
TO SHOW MORE DEFINED INLAND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO CHANGE TO RIP CURRENT FORECAST (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). WHILE
TIDAL RANGE HAS COME UP A BIT MOVING OUT OF A NEAP CYCLE...IT IS NOT
ENOUGH ALONG WITH 7 SEC/3FT SWELL TO PUSH IT  TO THE NEXT HIGHEST
CATEGORY. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...LATEST LOCAL SWELL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE  3 FEET IS
SOLID BEING CONTRIBUTED TO BE THE 7 SEC ENERGY PACKET (MOVING NWD)
AS WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 KT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO...SOME
SLOW ROLLERS TODAY NEAR 3 FEET. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES IN THEIR VICINITY.
/23 JMM

&&

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WESTERN EXTENT OF BERMUDA RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF
OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. TO
THE EAST LATEST SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW A FAIRLY
LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING WEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROF MOVING OFF THE WEST FL COAST
EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
ALSO SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND LATER IN
THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS A
RESULT THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE EARLY TODAY
TRANSITIONING INLAND MOSTLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY LIMITING THE
GROWTH AND INTENSITY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION. MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OR END
QUICKLY BY SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG BOTH THIS MORNING AND MON MORNING NEAR
SUNRISE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN
YESTERDAY WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE...MOSTLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PRESENT FOR A
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...UPPER
70S NEAR THE COAST. /13

&&

.AVIATION [31.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 01.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
INCREASING TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE GENERATED FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DUE TO THE
BETTER FETCH LENGTH THIS ROUND STRETCHING WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  75  93  75  93 /  20  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   90  77  92  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      88  79  90  78  91 /  30  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  72  95 /  30  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  93  72  94  73  93 /  20  10  20  10  30
CAMDEN      95  71  95  72  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
CRESTVIEW   93  71  95  73  95 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KBMX 311128
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
INFLUENCE FOR THE WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES AREA BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WITH A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE LEFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATED. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS PRODUCED CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BELOW 500 FEET. THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. PW VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE MID-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LIFT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
SOME LIFT MAY LINGER FROM THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE WITH THIS INTRODUCTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THE
MICROBURST PARAMETERS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY STORMS TO FORM.
FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT IF A STRONG STORM FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST TO START THE WORK WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MORE OF A SEASONAL PATTERN WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WEST HALF OF THE AIR THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SATURATED AND TCL/BHM/EET HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EXPERIENCING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH
AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR TCL/BHM/EET.
WILL MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS BUT MAY INCLUDE VCSH. THE
AREA NEAR I-20 AND NORTH ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 14-16Z AND THEN ON AND OFF VFR
CEILINGS. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KTS.

FOR ANB/MGM/TOI...THE LOW CLOUD LIFTING MECHANISMS DID NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GOOD...THEREFORE WILL GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS/VIS.
THESE CLOUDS LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SCT-BKN VFR. ANB APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT NOT QUITE TO THE
LEVEL FOR MENTION JUST YET. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER AT MGM/TOI AND
CONFIDENCE/CHANCES ARE TO LOW FOR ANY MENTION.

LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO
OUR EAST AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 6 TO 9
KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AT NIGHT.

75

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 311128
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
INFLUENCE FOR THE WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES AREA BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WITH A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE LEFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATED. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS PRODUCED CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BELOW 500 FEET. THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. PW VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE MID-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LIFT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
SOME LIFT MAY LINGER FROM THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE WITH THIS INTRODUCTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THE
MICROBURST PARAMETERS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY STORMS TO FORM.
FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT IF A STRONG STORM FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST TO START THE WORK WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MORE OF A SEASONAL PATTERN WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WEST HALF OF THE AIR THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SATURATED AND TCL/BHM/EET HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EXPERIENCING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH
AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR TCL/BHM/EET.
WILL MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS BUT MAY INCLUDE VCSH. THE
AREA NEAR I-20 AND NORTH ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 14-16Z AND THEN ON AND OFF VFR
CEILINGS. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KTS.

FOR ANB/MGM/TOI...THE LOW CLOUD LIFTING MECHANISMS DID NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GOOD...THEREFORE WILL GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS/VIS.
THESE CLOUDS LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SCT-BKN VFR. ANB APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT NOT QUITE TO THE
LEVEL FOR MENTION JUST YET. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER AT MGM/TOI AND
CONFIDENCE/CHANCES ARE TO LOW FOR ANY MENTION.

LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO
OUR EAST AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 6 TO 9
KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AT NIGHT.

75

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 311113 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
A DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SOUTH OF A NORTHERN ALASKA UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD. A COPIOUS STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SIMILARLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAS MADE FOR A VERY MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS PRESENTLY AROUND 2 INCHES.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED MOVING TO THE
NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING OCCURRED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
NE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
WEST OF I-65. ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AN
AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINS HAD OCCURRED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS RAIN HAS MADE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION A POSSIBILITY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FORMING WEST OF JACKSON MS...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PER GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HIRES AWR/NMM...HAVE INCHED
LIKELY POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...AND LEFT 50 POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION A POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR LABOR DAY MORNING.

MONDAY OTHERWISE SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON TUE...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT NEARING THE AREA. THE
ECMWF AND NAM WAS SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THAT BOUNDARY. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF US SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER (AND MAYBE A FEW MID 90S)...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF PERIOD. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WARRANT LOWER
END CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SAT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH
DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 13-17Z AT BOTH TAF SITES AS MORE
SHRA ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OSCILLATIONS BTWN VFR AND
MVFR (IF NOT LOWER) CATEGORY IS LIKELY AGAIN BTWN 19-00Z AS
TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME PERIOD BTWN
00Z-12Z. HOWEVER, FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY DURING THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR TO IFR CAT BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311113 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
A DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SOUTH OF A NORTHERN ALASKA UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD. A COPIOUS STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SIMILARLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAS MADE FOR A VERY MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS PRESENTLY AROUND 2 INCHES.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED MOVING TO THE
NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING OCCURRED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
NE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
WEST OF I-65. ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AN
AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINS HAD OCCURRED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS RAIN HAS MADE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION A POSSIBILITY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FORMING WEST OF JACKSON MS...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PER GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HIRES AWR/NMM...HAVE INCHED
LIKELY POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...AND LEFT 50 POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION A POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR LABOR DAY MORNING.

MONDAY OTHERWISE SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON TUE...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT NEARING THE AREA. THE
ECMWF AND NAM WAS SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THAT BOUNDARY. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF US SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER (AND MAYBE A FEW MID 90S)...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF PERIOD. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WARRANT LOWER
END CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SAT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH
DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 13-17Z AT BOTH TAF SITES AS MORE
SHRA ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OSCILLATIONS BTWN VFR AND
MVFR (IF NOT LOWER) CATEGORY IS LIKELY AGAIN BTWN 19-00Z AS
TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME PERIOD BTWN
00Z-12Z. HOWEVER, FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY DURING THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR TO IFR CAT BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311113 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
A DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SOUTH OF A NORTHERN ALASKA UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD. A COPIOUS STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SIMILARLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAS MADE FOR A VERY MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS PRESENTLY AROUND 2 INCHES.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED MOVING TO THE
NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING OCCURRED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
NE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
WEST OF I-65. ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AN
AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINS HAD OCCURRED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS RAIN HAS MADE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION A POSSIBILITY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FORMING WEST OF JACKSON MS...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PER GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HIRES AWR/NMM...HAVE INCHED
LIKELY POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...AND LEFT 50 POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION A POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR LABOR DAY MORNING.

MONDAY OTHERWISE SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON TUE...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT NEARING THE AREA. THE
ECMWF AND NAM WAS SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THAT BOUNDARY. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF US SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER (AND MAYBE A FEW MID 90S)...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF PERIOD. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WARRANT LOWER
END CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SAT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH
DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 13-17Z AT BOTH TAF SITES AS MORE
SHRA ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OSCILLATIONS BTWN VFR AND
MVFR (IF NOT LOWER) CATEGORY IS LIKELY AGAIN BTWN 19-00Z AS
TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME PERIOD BTWN
00Z-12Z. HOWEVER, FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY DURING THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR TO IFR CAT BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311113 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
A DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SOUTH OF A NORTHERN ALASKA UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD. A COPIOUS STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SIMILARLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAS MADE FOR A VERY MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS PRESENTLY AROUND 2 INCHES.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED MOVING TO THE
NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING OCCURRED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
NE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
WEST OF I-65. ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AN
AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINS HAD OCCURRED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS RAIN HAS MADE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION A POSSIBILITY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FORMING WEST OF JACKSON MS...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PER GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HIRES AWR/NMM...HAVE INCHED
LIKELY POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...AND LEFT 50 POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION A POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR LABOR DAY MORNING.

MONDAY OTHERWISE SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON TUE...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT NEARING THE AREA. THE
ECMWF AND NAM WAS SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THAT BOUNDARY. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF US SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER (AND MAYBE A FEW MID 90S)...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF PERIOD. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WARRANT LOWER
END CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SAT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH
DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 13-17Z AT BOTH TAF SITES AS MORE
SHRA ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OSCILLATIONS BTWN VFR AND
MVFR (IF NOT LOWER) CATEGORY IS LIKELY AGAIN BTWN 19-00Z AS
TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME PERIOD BTWN
00Z-12Z. HOWEVER, FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY DURING THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR TO IFR CAT BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 310959
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WESTERN EXTENT OF BERMUDA RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF
OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. TO
THE EAST LATEST SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW A FAIRLY
LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING WEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROF MOVING OFF THE WEST FL COAST
EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
ALSO SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND LATER IN
THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS A
RESULT THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE EARLY TODAY
TRANSITIONING INLAND MOSTLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY LIMITING THE
GROWTH AND INTENSITY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION. MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OR END
QUICKLY BY SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG BOTH THIS MORNING AND MON MORNING NEAR
SUNRISE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN
YESTERDAY WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE...MOSTLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PRESENT FOR A
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...UPPER
70S NEAR THE COAST. /13

&&

.AVIATION [31.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 01.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
INCREASING TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE GENERATED FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DUE TO THE
BETTER FETCH LENGTH THIS ROUND STRETCHING WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  75  93  75  93 /  20  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   90  77  92  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      88  79  90  78  91 /  30  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  72  95 /  30  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  93  72  94  73  93 /  20  10  20  10  30
CAMDEN      95  71  95  72  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
CRESTVIEW   93  71  95  73  95 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 310959
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WESTERN EXTENT OF BERMUDA RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF
OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. TO
THE EAST LATEST SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW A FAIRLY
LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING WEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROF MOVING OFF THE WEST FL COAST
EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
ALSO SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND LATER IN
THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS A
RESULT THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE EARLY TODAY
TRANSITIONING INLAND MOSTLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY LIMITING THE
GROWTH AND INTENSITY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION. MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OR END
QUICKLY BY SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG BOTH THIS MORNING AND MON MORNING NEAR
SUNRISE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN
YESTERDAY WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE...MOSTLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PRESENT FOR A
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...UPPER
70S NEAR THE COAST. /13

&&

.AVIATION [31.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 01.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
INCREASING TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE GENERATED FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DUE TO THE
BETTER FETCH LENGTH THIS ROUND STRETCHING WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  75  93  75  93 /  20  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   90  77  92  77  92 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      88  79  90  78  91 /  30  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  72  95 /  30  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  93  72  94  73  93 /  20  10  20  10  30
CAMDEN      95  71  95  72  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
CRESTVIEW   93  71  95  73  95 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KHUN 310848
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SOUTH OF A NORTHERN ALASKA UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD. A COPIOUS STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SIMILARLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAS MADE FOR A VERY MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS PRESENTLY AROUND 2 INCHES.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED MOVING TO THE
NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING OCCURRED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
NE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
WEST OF I-65. ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AN
AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINS HAD OCCURRED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS RAIN HAS MADE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION A POSSIBILITY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FORMING WEST OF JACKSON MS...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PER GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HIRES AWR/NMM...HAVE INCHED
LIKELY POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...AND LEFT 50 POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION A POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR LABOR DAY MORNING.

MONDAY OTHERWISE SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON TUE...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT NEARING THE AREA. THE
ECMWF AND NAM WAS SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THAT BOUNDARY. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF US SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER (AND MAYBE A FEW MID 90S)...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF PERIOD. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WARRANT LOWER
END CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SAT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT THE
CHC OF PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE TAF SITES (10Z AT KMSL AND 12Z AT
KHSV). AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. SHRA/TSRA WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 00Z SUNDAY EVENING. BRIEF DROPS IN CAT DUE TO
FOG ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 06-12Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL ARND 10Z. AFTER 10Z, EXPECT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AFTER 00Z.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    88  70  93  73 /  50  20  10  10
SHOALS        88  70  93  72 /  70  20  10  10
VINEMONT      87  70  92  72 /  50  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  87  69  92  71 /  60  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   87  69  89  71 /  50  20  10  10
FORT PAYNE    90  68  92  71 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310848
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SOUTH OF A NORTHERN ALASKA UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD. A COPIOUS STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SIMILARLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAS MADE FOR A VERY MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS PRESENTLY AROUND 2 INCHES.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED MOVING TO THE
NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING OCCURRED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
NE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
WEST OF I-65. ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AN
AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINS HAD OCCURRED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS RAIN HAS MADE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION A POSSIBILITY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FORMING WEST OF JACKSON MS...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PER GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HIRES AWR/NMM...HAVE INCHED
LIKELY POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...AND LEFT 50 POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION A POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR LABOR DAY MORNING.

MONDAY OTHERWISE SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON TUE...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT NEARING THE AREA. THE
ECMWF AND NAM WAS SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THAT BOUNDARY. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF US SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER (AND MAYBE A FEW MID 90S)...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF PERIOD. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WARRANT LOWER
END CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SAT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT THE
CHC OF PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE TAF SITES (10Z AT KMSL AND 12Z AT
KHSV). AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. SHRA/TSRA WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 00Z SUNDAY EVENING. BRIEF DROPS IN CAT DUE TO
FOG ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 06-12Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL ARND 10Z. AFTER 10Z, EXPECT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AFTER 00Z.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    88  70  93  73 /  50  20  10  10
SHOALS        88  70  93  72 /  70  20  10  10
VINEMONT      87  70  92  72 /  50  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  87  69  92  71 /  60  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   87  69  89  71 /  50  20  10  10
FORT PAYNE    90  68  92  71 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310848
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SOUTH OF A NORTHERN ALASKA UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD. A COPIOUS STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SIMILARLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAS MADE FOR A VERY MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS PRESENTLY AROUND 2 INCHES.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED MOVING TO THE
NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING OCCURRED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
NE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
WEST OF I-65. ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AN
AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINS HAD OCCURRED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS RAIN HAS MADE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION A POSSIBILITY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FORMING WEST OF JACKSON MS...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PER GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HIRES AWR/NMM...HAVE INCHED
LIKELY POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...AND LEFT 50 POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION A POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR LABOR DAY MORNING.

MONDAY OTHERWISE SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON TUE...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT NEARING THE AREA. THE
ECMWF AND NAM WAS SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THAT BOUNDARY. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF US SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER (AND MAYBE A FEW MID 90S)...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF PERIOD. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WARRANT LOWER
END CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SAT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT THE
CHC OF PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE TAF SITES (10Z AT KMSL AND 12Z AT
KHSV). AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. SHRA/TSRA WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 00Z SUNDAY EVENING. BRIEF DROPS IN CAT DUE TO
FOG ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 06-12Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL ARND 10Z. AFTER 10Z, EXPECT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AFTER 00Z.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    88  70  93  73 /  50  20  10  10
SHOALS        88  70  93  72 /  70  20  10  10
VINEMONT      87  70  92  72 /  50  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  87  69  92  71 /  60  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   87  69  89  71 /  50  20  10  10
FORT PAYNE    90  68  92  71 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310848
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SOUTH OF A NORTHERN ALASKA UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD. A COPIOUS STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SIMILARLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAS MADE FOR A VERY MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS PRESENTLY AROUND 2 INCHES.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED MOVING TO THE
NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING OCCURRED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
NE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
WEST OF I-65. ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AN
AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINS HAD OCCURRED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS RAIN HAS MADE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION A POSSIBILITY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FORMING WEST OF JACKSON MS...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PER GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HIRES AWR/NMM...HAVE INCHED
LIKELY POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...AND LEFT 50 POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION A POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR LABOR DAY MORNING.

MONDAY OTHERWISE SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON TUE...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT NEARING THE AREA. THE
ECMWF AND NAM WAS SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THAT BOUNDARY. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF US SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER (AND MAYBE A FEW MID 90S)...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF PERIOD. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WARRANT LOWER
END CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SAT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT THE
CHC OF PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE TAF SITES (10Z AT KMSL AND 12Z AT
KHSV). AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. SHRA/TSRA WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 00Z SUNDAY EVENING. BRIEF DROPS IN CAT DUE TO
FOG ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 06-12Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL ARND 10Z. AFTER 10Z, EXPECT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AFTER 00Z.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    88  70  93  73 /  50  20  10  10
SHOALS        88  70  93  72 /  70  20  10  10
VINEMONT      87  70  92  72 /  50  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  87  69  92  71 /  60  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   87  69  89  71 /  50  20  10  10
FORT PAYNE    90  68  92  71 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 310826
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
326 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
INFLUENCE FOR THE WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES AREA BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WITH A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE LEFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATED. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS PRODUCED CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BELOW 500 FEET. THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. PW VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE MID-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LIFT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
SOME LIFT MAY LINGER FROM THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE WITH THIS INTRODUCTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THE
MICROBURST PARAMETERS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY STORMS TO FORM.
FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT IF A STRONG STORM FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST TO START THE WORK WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MORE OF A SEASONAL PATTERN WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT CONVINCED ON THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS EARLIER MODELS
WERE ADVERTISING...AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BEARISH ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CIRRUS DECK ALSO POINTS TOWARDS
LESS DEVELOPMENT. HAVEN`T ABANDONED THE THOUGHT ENTIRELY AT
BHM/EET/ANB/TCL...BUT HELD IT UNTIL LATER AND MOVE IT OUT SOONER.
FOR NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE CONVECTION AT ANY SITE AS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. LIGHT GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  93  70  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
ANNISTON    91  70  93  71  93 /  20  20  30  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  91  73  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  71  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  10  20
CALERA      91  72  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      91  71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20  20
MONTGOMERY  94  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
TROY        94  71  94  72  95 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 310826
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
326 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
INFLUENCE FOR THE WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES AREA BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WITH A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE LEFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATED. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS PRODUCED CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BELOW 500 FEET. THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. PW VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE MID-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LIFT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
SOME LIFT MAY LINGER FROM THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE WITH THIS INTRODUCTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THE
MICROBURST PARAMETERS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY STORMS TO FORM.
FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT IF A STRONG STORM FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST TO START THE WORK WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MORE OF A SEASONAL PATTERN WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT CONVINCED ON THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS EARLIER MODELS
WERE ADVERTISING...AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BEARISH ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CIRRUS DECK ALSO POINTS TOWARDS
LESS DEVELOPMENT. HAVEN`T ABANDONED THE THOUGHT ENTIRELY AT
BHM/EET/ANB/TCL...BUT HELD IT UNTIL LATER AND MOVE IT OUT SOONER.
FOR NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE CONVECTION AT ANY SITE AS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. LIGHT GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  93  70  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
ANNISTON    91  70  93  71  93 /  20  20  30  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  91  73  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  71  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  10  20
CALERA      91  72  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      91  71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20  20
MONTGOMERY  94  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
TROY        94  71  94  72  95 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 310531
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION. FOR THE
MOST PART WE ARE DONE FOR TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION. ROUND 1 HAS
EXITED TO THE NORTH/EAST. HOWEVER...IN THE FAR EXTREME EAST
COUNTIES HAVE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD HAVE A SHOWER SCRAPE US
WITH A LITTLE BACK-BUILDING. ALSO...AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MS/TN COULD SKIRT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AND BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE. REALLY THOUGH...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WAKE OF STORMS. THINK WE COULD BE
KEPT FROM SOME OF THE MORE DENSE FOG DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD STILL OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF TONIGHT.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...NOT MUCH WIGGLE ROOM AS WE DROPPED QUICKLY
WITH STORMS BUT SHOULD NOT MOVE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATE ALREADY
OUT.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT CONVINCED ON THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS EARLIER MODELS
WERE ADVERTISING...AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BEARISH ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CIRRUS DECK ALSO POINTS TOWARDS
LESS DEVELOPMENT. HAVEN`T ABANDONED THE THOUGHT ENTIRELY AT
BHM/EET/ANB/TCL...BUT HELD IT UNTIL LATER AND MOVE IT OUT SOONER.
FOR NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE CONVECTION AT ANY SITE AS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. LIGHT GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  92  70  93 /  50  20  20  10  20
ANNISTON    92  70  93  71  93 /  40  20  20  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  92  74  93  75  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  72  94  74  95 /  40  20  20  10  20
CALERA      91  72  92  73  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      91  72  92  72  94 /  20  20  30  10  20
MONTGOMERY  93  73  95  73  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
TROY        94  72  93  72  95 /  20  20  30  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 310531
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION. FOR THE
MOST PART WE ARE DONE FOR TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION. ROUND 1 HAS
EXITED TO THE NORTH/EAST. HOWEVER...IN THE FAR EXTREME EAST
COUNTIES HAVE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD HAVE A SHOWER SCRAPE US
WITH A LITTLE BACK-BUILDING. ALSO...AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MS/TN COULD SKIRT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AND BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE. REALLY THOUGH...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WAKE OF STORMS. THINK WE COULD BE
KEPT FROM SOME OF THE MORE DENSE FOG DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD STILL OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF TONIGHT.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...NOT MUCH WIGGLE ROOM AS WE DROPPED QUICKLY
WITH STORMS BUT SHOULD NOT MOVE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATE ALREADY
OUT.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT CONVINCED ON THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS EARLIER MODELS
WERE ADVERTISING...AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BEARISH ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CIRRUS DECK ALSO POINTS TOWARDS
LESS DEVELOPMENT. HAVEN`T ABANDONED THE THOUGHT ENTIRELY AT
BHM/EET/ANB/TCL...BUT HELD IT UNTIL LATER AND MOVE IT OUT SOONER.
FOR NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE CONVECTION AT ANY SITE AS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. LIGHT GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  92  70  93 /  50  20  20  10  20
ANNISTON    92  70  93  71  93 /  40  20  20  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  92  74  93  75  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  72  94  74  95 /  40  20  20  10  20
CALERA      91  72  92  73  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      91  72  92  72  94 /  20  20  30  10  20
MONTGOMERY  93  73  95  73  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
TROY        94  72  93  72  95 /  20  20  30  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 310520 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING PCPN ACROSS THE CWA QUICKLY DISSIPATING
ATTM. HOWEVER WITH PW`S OVER 2 INCHES...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
ARND 30 KTS AND AN UPPER TROF JUST TO OUR WEST...CAN EXPECT MORE
SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. FOR
NOW NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AS WE HAD
EARLIER THIS EVENING. THUS WILL GO WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH
40 POPS OVER NW AL (BEST LOCATION FOR PCPN) TO 30 POPS ELSEWHERE.
THE THREAT OF SVR WX IS LOW OVERNIGHT BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS ARND 40 MPH AND HVY RAIN. DUE TO CLOUD COVER
NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP MUCH FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT THE
CHC OF PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE TAF SITES (10Z AT KMSL AND 12Z AT
KHSV). AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. SHRA/TSRA WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 00Z SUNDAY EVENING. BRIEF DROPS IN CAT DUE TO
FOG ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 06-12Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL ARND 10Z. AFTER 10Z, EXPECT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AFTER 00Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310520 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING PCPN ACROSS THE CWA QUICKLY DISSIPATING
ATTM. HOWEVER WITH PW`S OVER 2 INCHES...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
ARND 30 KTS AND AN UPPER TROF JUST TO OUR WEST...CAN EXPECT MORE
SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. FOR
NOW NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AS WE HAD
EARLIER THIS EVENING. THUS WILL GO WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH
40 POPS OVER NW AL (BEST LOCATION FOR PCPN) TO 30 POPS ELSEWHERE.
THE THREAT OF SVR WX IS LOW OVERNIGHT BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS ARND 40 MPH AND HVY RAIN. DUE TO CLOUD COVER
NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP MUCH FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT THE
CHC OF PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE TAF SITES (10Z AT KMSL AND 12Z AT
KHSV). AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. SHRA/TSRA WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 00Z SUNDAY EVENING. BRIEF DROPS IN CAT DUE TO
FOG ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 06-12Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL ARND 10Z. AFTER 10Z, EXPECT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AFTER 00Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310520 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING PCPN ACROSS THE CWA QUICKLY DISSIPATING
ATTM. HOWEVER WITH PW`S OVER 2 INCHES...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
ARND 30 KTS AND AN UPPER TROF JUST TO OUR WEST...CAN EXPECT MORE
SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. FOR
NOW NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AS WE HAD
EARLIER THIS EVENING. THUS WILL GO WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH
40 POPS OVER NW AL (BEST LOCATION FOR PCPN) TO 30 POPS ELSEWHERE.
THE THREAT OF SVR WX IS LOW OVERNIGHT BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS ARND 40 MPH AND HVY RAIN. DUE TO CLOUD COVER
NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP MUCH FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT THE
CHC OF PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE TAF SITES (10Z AT KMSL AND 12Z AT
KHSV). AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. SHRA/TSRA WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 00Z SUNDAY EVENING. BRIEF DROPS IN CAT DUE TO
FOG ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 06-12Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL ARND 10Z. AFTER 10Z, EXPECT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AFTER 00Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310520 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING PCPN ACROSS THE CWA QUICKLY DISSIPATING
ATTM. HOWEVER WITH PW`S OVER 2 INCHES...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
ARND 30 KTS AND AN UPPER TROF JUST TO OUR WEST...CAN EXPECT MORE
SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. FOR
NOW NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AS WE HAD
EARLIER THIS EVENING. THUS WILL GO WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH
40 POPS OVER NW AL (BEST LOCATION FOR PCPN) TO 30 POPS ELSEWHERE.
THE THREAT OF SVR WX IS LOW OVERNIGHT BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS ARND 40 MPH AND HVY RAIN. DUE TO CLOUD COVER
NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP MUCH FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT THE
CHC OF PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE TAF SITES (10Z AT KMSL AND 12Z AT
KHSV). AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. SHRA/TSRA WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 00Z SUNDAY EVENING. BRIEF DROPS IN CAT DUE TO
FOG ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 06-12Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL ARND 10Z. AFTER 10Z, EXPECT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AFTER 00Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 310449 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BECOME ORIENTED WELL TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO REDUCE POPS TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND ALSO TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. /21

&&

.AVIATION [31.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY PREVAIL TO START OFF THIS TERMINAL FORECAST WITH BROKEN MID
TO HIGH CLOUD COVER...THOUGH LOCALIZED OCCURRENCES OF MVFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
FOG VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 31.08Z AND 31.12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE
IN OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE LOCAL TAF/S.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  91  75  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   78  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
DESTIN      79  91  79  92  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   72  94  72  95  72 /  20  30  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  73 /  20  30  10  20  10
CAMDEN      72  95  72  95  72 /  20  30  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   72  95  72  95  73 /  20  30  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 310449 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BECOME ORIENTED WELL TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO REDUCE POPS TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND ALSO TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. /21

&&

.AVIATION [31.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY PREVAIL TO START OFF THIS TERMINAL FORECAST WITH BROKEN MID
TO HIGH CLOUD COVER...THOUGH LOCALIZED OCCURRENCES OF MVFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
FOG VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 31.08Z AND 31.12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE
IN OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE LOCAL TAF/S.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  91  75  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   78  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
DESTIN      79  91  79  92  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   72  94  72  95  72 /  20  30  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  73 /  20  30  10  20  10
CAMDEN      72  95  72  95  72 /  20  30  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   72  95  72  95  73 /  20  30  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 310307 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1007 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION. FOR THE
MOST PART WE ARE DONE FOR TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION. ROUND 1 HAS
EXITED TO THE NORTH/EAST. HOWEVER...IN THE FAR EXTREME EAST
COUNTIES HAVE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD HAVE A SHOWER SCRAPE US
WITH A LITTLE BACK-BUILDING. ALSO...AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MS/TN COULD SKIRT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AND BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE. REALLY THOUGH...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WAKE OF STORMS. THINK WE COULD BE
KEPT FROM SOME OF THE MORE DENSE FOG DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD STILL OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF TONIGHT.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...NOT MUCH WIGGLE ROOM AS WE DROPPED QUICKLY
WITH STORMS BUT SHOULD NOT MOVE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATE ALREADY
OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WANING AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WHICH ARE MOST FAVORABLE
AT EET/ANB/MGM AND TOI. WENT A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MVFR
FOG IN TAFS DUE TO RAINFALL...AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DIMINISH BY 15Z.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 740 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

FRESHENED UP HOURLY GRIDS AND REISSUED PRODUCTS/GRIDS TO REMOVE
LATE AFTERNOON WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS. MORE COMPLETE EVALUATION
FOR EVENING UPDATE WILL WAIT FOR CONVECTION TO CALM DOWN A BIT
MORE.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

INCREASED MOISTURE AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST HAVE
SPARKED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PRIMARILY FROM THE BAMA/MISS STATE LINE AND WEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT...BUT MOST OF THE OTHER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY VERY ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES RESPOND
BY REACHING THE MID 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...AROUND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND TAKE ON MORE OF A DIRTY LOOK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  69  92  70 /  20  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    71  92  70  93  71 /  20  40  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  92  74  93  75 /  20  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  92  72  94  74 /  20  40  20  20  10
CALERA      71  91  72  92  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  91  72  92  72 /  20  20  20  30  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  73  95  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
TROY        72  94  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/02/88






000
FXUS64 KBMX 310307 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1007 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION. FOR THE
MOST PART WE ARE DONE FOR TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION. ROUND 1 HAS
EXITED TO THE NORTH/EAST. HOWEVER...IN THE FAR EXTREME EAST
COUNTIES HAVE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD HAVE A SHOWER SCRAPE US
WITH A LITTLE BACK-BUILDING. ALSO...AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MS/TN COULD SKIRT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AND BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE. REALLY THOUGH...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WAKE OF STORMS. THINK WE COULD BE
KEPT FROM SOME OF THE MORE DENSE FOG DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD STILL OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF TONIGHT.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...NOT MUCH WIGGLE ROOM AS WE DROPPED QUICKLY
WITH STORMS BUT SHOULD NOT MOVE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATE ALREADY
OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WANING AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WHICH ARE MOST FAVORABLE
AT EET/ANB/MGM AND TOI. WENT A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MVFR
FOG IN TAFS DUE TO RAINFALL...AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DIMINISH BY 15Z.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 740 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

FRESHENED UP HOURLY GRIDS AND REISSUED PRODUCTS/GRIDS TO REMOVE
LATE AFTERNOON WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS. MORE COMPLETE EVALUATION
FOR EVENING UPDATE WILL WAIT FOR CONVECTION TO CALM DOWN A BIT
MORE.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

INCREASED MOISTURE AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST HAVE
SPARKED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PRIMARILY FROM THE BAMA/MISS STATE LINE AND WEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT...BUT MOST OF THE OTHER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY VERY ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES RESPOND
BY REACHING THE MID 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...AROUND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND TAKE ON MORE OF A DIRTY LOOK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  69  92  70 /  20  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    71  92  70  93  71 /  20  40  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  92  74  93  75 /  20  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  92  72  94  74 /  20  40  20  20  10
CALERA      71  91  72  92  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  91  72  92  72 /  20  20  20  30  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  73  95  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
TROY        72  94  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/02/88






000
FXUS64 KBMX 310307 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1007 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION. FOR THE
MOST PART WE ARE DONE FOR TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION. ROUND 1 HAS
EXITED TO THE NORTH/EAST. HOWEVER...IN THE FAR EXTREME EAST
COUNTIES HAVE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD HAVE A SHOWER SCRAPE US
WITH A LITTLE BACK-BUILDING. ALSO...AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MS/TN COULD SKIRT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AND BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE. REALLY THOUGH...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WAKE OF STORMS. THINK WE COULD BE
KEPT FROM SOME OF THE MORE DENSE FOG DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD STILL OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF TONIGHT.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...NOT MUCH WIGGLE ROOM AS WE DROPPED QUICKLY
WITH STORMS BUT SHOULD NOT MOVE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATE ALREADY
OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WANING AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WHICH ARE MOST FAVORABLE
AT EET/ANB/MGM AND TOI. WENT A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MVFR
FOG IN TAFS DUE TO RAINFALL...AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DIMINISH BY 15Z.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 740 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

FRESHENED UP HOURLY GRIDS AND REISSUED PRODUCTS/GRIDS TO REMOVE
LATE AFTERNOON WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS. MORE COMPLETE EVALUATION
FOR EVENING UPDATE WILL WAIT FOR CONVECTION TO CALM DOWN A BIT
MORE.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

INCREASED MOISTURE AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST HAVE
SPARKED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PRIMARILY FROM THE BAMA/MISS STATE LINE AND WEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT...BUT MOST OF THE OTHER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY VERY ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES RESPOND
BY REACHING THE MID 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...AROUND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND TAKE ON MORE OF A DIRTY LOOK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  69  92  70 /  20  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    71  92  70  93  71 /  20  40  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  92  74  93  75 /  20  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  92  72  94  74 /  20  40  20  20  10
CALERA      71  91  72  92  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  91  72  92  72 /  20  20  20  30  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  73  95  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
TROY        72  94  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/02/88






000
FXUS64 KBMX 310307 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1007 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION. FOR THE
MOST PART WE ARE DONE FOR TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION. ROUND 1 HAS
EXITED TO THE NORTH/EAST. HOWEVER...IN THE FAR EXTREME EAST
COUNTIES HAVE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD HAVE A SHOWER SCRAPE US
WITH A LITTLE BACK-BUILDING. ALSO...AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MS/TN COULD SKIRT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AND BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE. REALLY THOUGH...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WAKE OF STORMS. THINK WE COULD BE
KEPT FROM SOME OF THE MORE DENSE FOG DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD STILL OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF TONIGHT.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...NOT MUCH WIGGLE ROOM AS WE DROPPED QUICKLY
WITH STORMS BUT SHOULD NOT MOVE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATE ALREADY
OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WANING AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WHICH ARE MOST FAVORABLE
AT EET/ANB/MGM AND TOI. WENT A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MVFR
FOG IN TAFS DUE TO RAINFALL...AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DIMINISH BY 15Z.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 740 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

FRESHENED UP HOURLY GRIDS AND REISSUED PRODUCTS/GRIDS TO REMOVE
LATE AFTERNOON WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS. MORE COMPLETE EVALUATION
FOR EVENING UPDATE WILL WAIT FOR CONVECTION TO CALM DOWN A BIT
MORE.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

INCREASED MOISTURE AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST HAVE
SPARKED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PRIMARILY FROM THE BAMA/MISS STATE LINE AND WEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT...BUT MOST OF THE OTHER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY VERY ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES RESPOND
BY REACHING THE MID 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...AROUND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND TAKE ON MORE OF A DIRTY LOOK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  69  92  70 /  20  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    71  92  70  93  71 /  20  40  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  92  74  93  75 /  20  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  92  72  94  74 /  20  40  20  20  10
CALERA      71  91  72  92  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  91  72  92  72 /  20  20  20  30  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  73  95  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
TROY        72  94  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/02/88






000
FXUS64 KHUN 310230
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND TWEAKED QPF GRIDS...OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS
GOOD ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING PCPN ACROSS THE CWA QUICKLY DISSIPATING
ATTM. HOWEVER WITH PW`S OVER 2 INCHES...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
ARND 30 KTS AND AN UPPER TROF JUST TO OUR WEST...CAN EXPECT MORE
SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. FOR
NOW NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AS WE HAD
EARLIER THIS EVENING. THUS WILL GO WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH
40 POPS OVER NW AL (BEST LOCATION FOR PCPN) TO 30 POPS ELSEWHERE.
THE THREAT OF SVR WX IS LOW OVERNIGHT BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS ARND 40 MPH AND HVY RAIN. DUE TO CLOUD COVER
NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP MUCH FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LOT OF MOISTURE WAS BEING PUMPED ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY DUE TO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST AND A LARGE UPPER HIGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER RADAR/STLT TRENDS WERE SHOWING A BREAK
IN THE TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TAF SITES ARND 02Z. BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z WILL KEEP VCSH AT BOTH TAF SITES. NOT REAL REAL SURE IF WE SEE
ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS UNTIL ARND 14Z SUNDAY MRNG. AFTER 14Z...THE UPPER
TROF ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AREA 88-D RETURNS ALL INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSEASONABLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
85 TO AROUND 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THE SHORT WAVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA INTO KENTUCKY BY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD LESSENING POPS AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TOWARD JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORT WAVES...SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
MOVING A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS MODEL...KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SLIGHTLY BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY TOWARD GUIDANCE VALUES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS TEMPS VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING EXTENDED TIME FRAME TEMP FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310230
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND TWEAKED QPF GRIDS...OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS
GOOD ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING PCPN ACROSS THE CWA QUICKLY DISSIPATING
ATTM. HOWEVER WITH PW`S OVER 2 INCHES...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
ARND 30 KTS AND AN UPPER TROF JUST TO OUR WEST...CAN EXPECT MORE
SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. FOR
NOW NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AS WE HAD
EARLIER THIS EVENING. THUS WILL GO WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH
40 POPS OVER NW AL (BEST LOCATION FOR PCPN) TO 30 POPS ELSEWHERE.
THE THREAT OF SVR WX IS LOW OVERNIGHT BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS ARND 40 MPH AND HVY RAIN. DUE TO CLOUD COVER
NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP MUCH FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LOT OF MOISTURE WAS BEING PUMPED ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY DUE TO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST AND A LARGE UPPER HIGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER RADAR/STLT TRENDS WERE SHOWING A BREAK
IN THE TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TAF SITES ARND 02Z. BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z WILL KEEP VCSH AT BOTH TAF SITES. NOT REAL REAL SURE IF WE SEE
ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS UNTIL ARND 14Z SUNDAY MRNG. AFTER 14Z...THE UPPER
TROF ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AREA 88-D RETURNS ALL INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSEASONABLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
85 TO AROUND 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THE SHORT WAVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA INTO KENTUCKY BY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD LESSENING POPS AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TOWARD JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORT WAVES...SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
MOVING A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS MODEL...KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SLIGHTLY BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY TOWARD GUIDANCE VALUES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS TEMPS VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING EXTENDED TIME FRAME TEMP FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 310040
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
740 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION AND QUICK EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FRESHENED UP HOURLY GRIDS AND REISSUED PRODUCTS/GRIDS TO REMOVE
LATE AFTERNOON WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS. MORE COMPLETE EVALUATION
FOR EVENING UPDATE WILL WAIT FOR CONVECTION TO CALM DOWN A BIT
MORE.

JD/02

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WANING AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WHICH ARE MOST FAVORABLE
AT EET/ANB/MGM AND TOI. WENT A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MVFR
FOG IN TAFS DUE TO RAINFALL...AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DIMINISH BY 15Z.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  69  92  70 /  40  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    71  92  70  93  71 /  40  40  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  73  92  74  93  75 /  40  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  92  72  94  74 /  40  40  20  20  10
CALERA      73  91  72  92  73 /  30  30  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  91  72  92  72 /  30  20  20  30  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  20  30  10
TROY        72  94  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 310040
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
740 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION AND QUICK EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FRESHENED UP HOURLY GRIDS AND REISSUED PRODUCTS/GRIDS TO REMOVE
LATE AFTERNOON WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS. MORE COMPLETE EVALUATION
FOR EVENING UPDATE WILL WAIT FOR CONVECTION TO CALM DOWN A BIT
MORE.

JD/02

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WANING AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WHICH ARE MOST FAVORABLE
AT EET/ANB/MGM AND TOI. WENT A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MVFR
FOG IN TAFS DUE TO RAINFALL...AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DIMINISH BY 15Z.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  69  92  70 /  40  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    71  92  70  93  71 /  40  40  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  73  92  74  93  75 /  40  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  92  72  94  74 /  40  40  20  20  10
CALERA      73  91  72  92  73 /  30  30  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  91  72  92  72 /  30  20  20  30  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  20  30  10
TROY        72  94  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 310040
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
740 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION AND QUICK EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FRESHENED UP HOURLY GRIDS AND REISSUED PRODUCTS/GRIDS TO REMOVE
LATE AFTERNOON WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS. MORE COMPLETE EVALUATION
FOR EVENING UPDATE WILL WAIT FOR CONVECTION TO CALM DOWN A BIT
MORE.

JD/02

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WANING AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WHICH ARE MOST FAVORABLE
AT EET/ANB/MGM AND TOI. WENT A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MVFR
FOG IN TAFS DUE TO RAINFALL...AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DIMINISH BY 15Z.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  69  92  70 /  40  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    71  92  70  93  71 /  40  40  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  73  92  74  93  75 /  40  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  92  72  94  74 /  40  40  20  20  10
CALERA      73  91  72  92  73 /  30  30  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  91  72  92  72 /  30  20  20  30  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  20  30  10
TROY        72  94  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 310040
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
740 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION AND QUICK EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FRESHENED UP HOURLY GRIDS AND REISSUED PRODUCTS/GRIDS TO REMOVE
LATE AFTERNOON WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS. MORE COMPLETE EVALUATION
FOR EVENING UPDATE WILL WAIT FOR CONVECTION TO CALM DOWN A BIT
MORE.

JD/02

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WANING AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WHICH ARE MOST FAVORABLE
AT EET/ANB/MGM AND TOI. WENT A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MVFR
FOG IN TAFS DUE TO RAINFALL...AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DIMINISH BY 15Z.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  69  92  70 /  40  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    71  92  70  93  71 /  40  40  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  73  92  74  93  75 /  40  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  92  72  94  74 /  40  40  20  20  10
CALERA      73  91  72  92  73 /  30  30  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  91  72  92  72 /  30  20  20  30  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  20  30  10
TROY        72  94  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 310013
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
713 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION [31.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE MAINLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL
EARLY THIS EVENING...INCLUDING NEAR THE KMOB AND KBFM TERMINALS.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND NEAR THE COAST. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ON THE LARGE SCALE...THERE IS A LARGE CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR
THE TX/LA BORDER WHERE DEEP-LAYER LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FLUX IS CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BETWEEN THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPLY-REFLECTED S/WAVE THAT WAS
OBSERVED TO BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE U.S. MIDWEST AND INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE PULLS AWAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WRN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE (BUT NOT CAPPED) ON
SUNDAY. WITH FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
SFC-400 HPA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO ONCE AGAIN BE
INITIATED CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PROPAGATE INLAND DURING THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE FROM SFC-850
HPA IS MORE MARKED ON SUNDAY SO THIS MEANS SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE VALUES IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COMPARED TO
TODAY. THE MODELS DO INSIST ON SHOWING A SLUG OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
NWWD FROM SE GLFMEX OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT OUR COASTAL ZONES BY MORNING.
AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE SINCE IT WILL LARGELY BE
DRIVEN BY OUTFLOWS...SO HAVE CHOSEN TO NOT LET IT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FORECAST INSTABILITY VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG LESS THAN TODAY. ON MAX/MIN TEMPS EXPECT
MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE LOW 70S INTERIOR TO THE MID-UPPER
70S NEAR THE BEACHES. TOMORROW`S MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING/CLOUDINESS COMPARED TO TODAY. EXPECT
LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES RANGING TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
DEPARTURES FROM FORECAST GUIDANCE WERE MINIMAL. /23 JMM

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PROMOTES A
PRIMARILY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES.  A SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL HAVE EJECTED AWAY FROM THE REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROF LINGERING OVER
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHWESTERNMOST GULF.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE MEANWHILE
ADVANCES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER RIDGE...AND
THEN MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST SUPPORT FROM THE PASSING
WEAK SHORTWAVE.  THE NORTHWEST GULF/LOUISIANA UPPER TROF FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND WHILE A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY BE
PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY SUFFICIENT
FOR LOW END CHANCE POPS...HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW OVERALL AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT REASSESS.  DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSER TO THE COAST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WEAKENS AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY AND
LIKEWISE WEAKENS.  A WEAK UPPER TROF FEATURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OFF TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THE LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER TROF NEARS
THE AREA.  A SURFACE RIDGE OTHERWISE PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND EXPECT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE SEA BREEZE LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES FURTHER TO THE WEST.  HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THEN
GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY SATURDAY.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...LARGELY NO CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 31.18Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. DID ADD SOME VCTS FROM MID-EVENING ON DUE TO AN ORGANIZED
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY APPROACH FROM THE SE...ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES. A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO TEMPO ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED PENDING ANALYSIS OF NEWER FORECAST
GUIDANCE. 23/JMM

MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LONG FETCH LENGTH STRETCHING
WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR WINDS OR
SEAS. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  91  75  93  75 /  30  30  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  93  77 /  30  30  10  20  10
DESTIN      80  91  79  92  77 /  30  30  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   74  94  72  95  72 /  30  30  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  10  20  10
CAMDEN      74  95  72  95  72 /  30  30  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   72  95  72  95  73 /  30  30  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 310013
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
713 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION [31.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE MAINLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL
EARLY THIS EVENING...INCLUDING NEAR THE KMOB AND KBFM TERMINALS.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND NEAR THE COAST. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ON THE LARGE SCALE...THERE IS A LARGE CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR
THE TX/LA BORDER WHERE DEEP-LAYER LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FLUX IS CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BETWEEN THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPLY-REFLECTED S/WAVE THAT WAS
OBSERVED TO BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE U.S. MIDWEST AND INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE PULLS AWAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WRN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE (BUT NOT CAPPED) ON
SUNDAY. WITH FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
SFC-400 HPA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO ONCE AGAIN BE
INITIATED CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PROPAGATE INLAND DURING THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE FROM SFC-850
HPA IS MORE MARKED ON SUNDAY SO THIS MEANS SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE VALUES IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COMPARED TO
TODAY. THE MODELS DO INSIST ON SHOWING A SLUG OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
NWWD FROM SE GLFMEX OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT OUR COASTAL ZONES BY MORNING.
AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE SINCE IT WILL LARGELY BE
DRIVEN BY OUTFLOWS...SO HAVE CHOSEN TO NOT LET IT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FORECAST INSTABILITY VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG LESS THAN TODAY. ON MAX/MIN TEMPS EXPECT
MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE LOW 70S INTERIOR TO THE MID-UPPER
70S NEAR THE BEACHES. TOMORROW`S MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING/CLOUDINESS COMPARED TO TODAY. EXPECT
LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES RANGING TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
DEPARTURES FROM FORECAST GUIDANCE WERE MINIMAL. /23 JMM

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PROMOTES A
PRIMARILY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES.  A SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL HAVE EJECTED AWAY FROM THE REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROF LINGERING OVER
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHWESTERNMOST GULF.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE MEANWHILE
ADVANCES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER RIDGE...AND
THEN MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST SUPPORT FROM THE PASSING
WEAK SHORTWAVE.  THE NORTHWEST GULF/LOUISIANA UPPER TROF FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND WHILE A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY BE
PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY SUFFICIENT
FOR LOW END CHANCE POPS...HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW OVERALL AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT REASSESS.  DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSER TO THE COAST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WEAKENS AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY AND
LIKEWISE WEAKENS.  A WEAK UPPER TROF FEATURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OFF TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THE LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER TROF NEARS
THE AREA.  A SURFACE RIDGE OTHERWISE PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND EXPECT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE SEA BREEZE LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES FURTHER TO THE WEST.  HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THEN
GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY SATURDAY.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...LARGELY NO CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 31.18Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. DID ADD SOME VCTS FROM MID-EVENING ON DUE TO AN ORGANIZED
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY APPROACH FROM THE SE...ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES. A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO TEMPO ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED PENDING ANALYSIS OF NEWER FORECAST
GUIDANCE. 23/JMM

MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LONG FETCH LENGTH STRETCHING
WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR WINDS OR
SEAS. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  91  75  93  75 /  30  30  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  93  77 /  30  30  10  20  10
DESTIN      80  91  79  92  77 /  30  30  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   74  94  72  95  72 /  30  30  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  10  20  10
CAMDEN      74  95  72  95  72 /  30  30  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   72  95  72  95  73 /  30  30  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 310000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AREA 88-D RETURNS ALL INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSEASONABLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
85 TO AROUND 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THE SHORT WAVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA INTO KENTUCKY BY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD LESSENING POPS AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TOWARD JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORT WAVES...SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
MOVING A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS MODEL...KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SLIGHTLY BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY TOWARD GUIDANCE VALUES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS TEMPS VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING EXTENDED TIME FRAME TEMP FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LOT OF MOISTURE WAS BEING PUMPED ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY DUE TO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST AND A LARGE UPPER HIGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER RADAR/STLT TRENDS WERE SHOWING A BREAK
IN THE TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TAF SITES ARND 02Z. BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z WILL KEEP VCSH AT BOTH TAF SITES. NOT REAL REAL SURE IF WE SEE
ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS UNTIL ARND 14Z SUNDAY MRNG. AFTER 14Z...THE UPPER
TROF ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AREA 88-D RETURNS ALL INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSEASONABLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
85 TO AROUND 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THE SHORT WAVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA INTO KENTUCKY BY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD LESSENING POPS AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TOWARD JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORT WAVES...SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
MOVING A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS MODEL...KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SLIGHTLY BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY TOWARD GUIDANCE VALUES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS TEMPS VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING EXTENDED TIME FRAME TEMP FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LOT OF MOISTURE WAS BEING PUMPED ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY DUE TO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST AND A LARGE UPPER HIGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER RADAR/STLT TRENDS WERE SHOWING A BREAK
IN THE TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TAF SITES ARND 02Z. BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z WILL KEEP VCSH AT BOTH TAF SITES. NOT REAL REAL SURE IF WE SEE
ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS UNTIL ARND 14Z SUNDAY MRNG. AFTER 14Z...THE UPPER
TROF ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AREA 88-D RETURNS ALL INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSEASONABLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
85 TO AROUND 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THE SHORT WAVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA INTO KENTUCKY BY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD LESSENING POPS AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TOWARD JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORT WAVES...SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
MOVING A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS MODEL...KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SLIGHTLY BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY TOWARD GUIDANCE VALUES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS TEMPS VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING EXTENDED TIME FRAME TEMP FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LOT OF MOISTURE WAS BEING PUMPED ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY DUE TO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST AND A LARGE UPPER HIGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER RADAR/STLT TRENDS WERE SHOWING A BREAK
IN THE TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TAF SITES ARND 02Z. BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z WILL KEEP VCSH AT BOTH TAF SITES. NOT REAL REAL SURE IF WE SEE
ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS UNTIL ARND 14Z SUNDAY MRNG. AFTER 14Z...THE UPPER
TROF ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AREA 88-D RETURNS ALL INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSEASONABLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
85 TO AROUND 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THE SHORT WAVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA INTO KENTUCKY BY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD LESSENING POPS AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TOWARD JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORT WAVES...SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
MOVING A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS MODEL...KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SLIGHTLY BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY TOWARD GUIDANCE VALUES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS TEMPS VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING EXTENDED TIME FRAME TEMP FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LOT OF MOISTURE WAS BEING PUMPED ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY DUE TO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST AND A LARGE UPPER HIGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER RADAR/STLT TRENDS WERE SHOWING A BREAK
IN THE TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TAF SITES ARND 02Z. BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z WILL KEEP VCSH AT BOTH TAF SITES. NOT REAL REAL SURE IF WE SEE
ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS UNTIL ARND 14Z SUNDAY MRNG. AFTER 14Z...THE UPPER
TROF ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 302014
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

INCREASED MOISTURE AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST HAVE
SPARKED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PRIMARILY FROM THE BAMA/MISS STATE LINE AND WEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT...BUT MOST OF THE OTHER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY VERY ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES RESPOND
BY REACHING THE MID 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...AROUND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND TAKE ON MORE OF A DIRTY LOOK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS HOUR ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER 21Z...PARTICULARLY FOR
TCL...BHM...EET AND ANB. SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FOR MGM
AND TOI. INCLUDED PREDOMINATE SHRA AFTER 20Z FOR THE NORTH SITES
BUT LEFT IN JUST VCTS FOR MGM AND TOI. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MORNING RIGHT AROUND 10 TO 12Z. WILL AMEND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS NEEDED.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  69  92  70 /  40  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    71  92  70  93  71 /  40  40  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  73  92  74  93  75 /  40  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  92  72  94  74 /  40  40  20  20  10
CALERA      73  91  72  92  73 /  30  30  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  91  72  92  72 /  30  20  20  30  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  20  30  10
TROY        72  94  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 302014
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

INCREASED MOISTURE AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST HAVE
SPARKED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PRIMARILY FROM THE BAMA/MISS STATE LINE AND WEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT...BUT MOST OF THE OTHER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY VERY ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES RESPOND
BY REACHING THE MID 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...AROUND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND TAKE ON MORE OF A DIRTY LOOK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS HOUR ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER 21Z...PARTICULARLY FOR
TCL...BHM...EET AND ANB. SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FOR MGM
AND TOI. INCLUDED PREDOMINATE SHRA AFTER 20Z FOR THE NORTH SITES
BUT LEFT IN JUST VCTS FOR MGM AND TOI. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MORNING RIGHT AROUND 10 TO 12Z. WILL AMEND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS NEEDED.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  69  92  70 /  40  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    71  92  70  93  71 /  40  40  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  73  92  74  93  75 /  40  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  92  72  94  74 /  40  40  20  20  10
CALERA      73  91  72  92  73 /  30  30  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  91  72  92  72 /  30  20  20  30  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  20  30  10
TROY        72  94  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 301953
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AREA 88-D RETURNS ALL INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSEASONABLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
85 TO AROUND 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THE SHORT WAVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA INTO KENTUCKY BY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD LESSENING POPS AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TOWARD JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORT WAVES...SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
MOVING A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS MODEL...KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SLIGHTLY BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY TOWARD GUIDANCE VALUES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS TEMPS VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING EXTENDED TIME FRAME TEMP FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KHSV AND KMSL...BUT VIS COULD DROP TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 12Z
SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINALS.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  88  71  93 /  60  50  30  20
SHOALS        72  89  71  93 /  70  60  30  20
VINEMONT      72  87  71  92 /  60  50  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  71  87  70  92 /  70  50  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   71  87  70  89 /  60  60  30  20
FORT PAYNE    71  90  69  92 /  60  50  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301953
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AREA 88-D RETURNS ALL INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSEASONABLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
85 TO AROUND 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THE SHORT WAVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA INTO KENTUCKY BY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD LESSENING POPS AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TOWARD JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORT WAVES...SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
MOVING A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS MODEL...KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SLIGHTLY BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY TOWARD GUIDANCE VALUES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS TEMPS VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING EXTENDED TIME FRAME TEMP FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KHSV AND KMSL...BUT VIS COULD DROP TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 12Z
SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINALS.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  88  71  93 /  60  50  30  20
SHOALS        72  89  71  93 /  70  60  30  20
VINEMONT      72  87  71  92 /  60  50  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  71  87  70  92 /  70  50  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   71  87  70  89 /  60  60  30  20
FORT PAYNE    71  90  69  92 /  60  50  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301953
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AREA 88-D RETURNS ALL INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSEASONABLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
85 TO AROUND 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THE SHORT WAVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA INTO KENTUCKY BY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD LESSENING POPS AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TOWARD JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORT WAVES...SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
MOVING A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS MODEL...KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SLIGHTLY BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY TOWARD GUIDANCE VALUES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS TEMPS VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING EXTENDED TIME FRAME TEMP FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KHSV AND KMSL...BUT VIS COULD DROP TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 12Z
SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINALS.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  88  71  93 /  60  50  30  20
SHOALS        72  89  71  93 /  70  60  30  20
VINEMONT      72  87  71  92 /  60  50  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  71  87  70  92 /  70  50  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   71  87  70  89 /  60  60  30  20
FORT PAYNE    71  90  69  92 /  60  50  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301953
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AREA 88-D RETURNS ALL INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSEASONABLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
85 TO AROUND 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THE SHORT WAVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA INTO KENTUCKY BY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD LESSENING POPS AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TOWARD JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORT WAVES...SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
MOVING A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS MODEL...KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SLIGHTLY BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY TOWARD GUIDANCE VALUES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS TEMPS VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING EXTENDED TIME FRAME TEMP FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KHSV AND KMSL...BUT VIS COULD DROP TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 12Z
SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINALS.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  88  71  93 /  60  50  30  20
SHOALS        72  89  71  93 /  70  60  30  20
VINEMONT      72  87  71  92 /  60  50  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  71  87  70  92 /  70  50  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   71  87  70  89 /  60  60  30  20
FORT PAYNE    71  90  69  92 /  60  50  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 301947
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
247 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ON THE LARGE SCALE...THERE IS A LARGE CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR
THE TX/LA BORDER WHERE DEEP-LAYER LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FLUX IS CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BETWEEN THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPLY-REFLECTED S/WAVE THAT WAS
OBSERVED TO BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE U.S. MIDWEST AND INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE PULLS AWAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WRN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE (BUT NOT CAPPED) ON
SUNDAY. WITH FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
SFC-400 HPA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO ONCE AGAIN BE
INITIATED CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PROPAGATE INLAND DURING THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE FROM SFC-850
HPA IS MORE MARKED ON SUNDAY SO THIS MEANS SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE VALUES IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COMPARED TO
TODAY. THE MODELS DO INSIST ON SHOWING A SLUG OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
NWWD FROM SE GLFMEX OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT OUR COASTAL ZONES BY MORNING.
AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE SINCE IT WILL LARGELY BE
DRIVEN BY OUTFLOWS...SO HAVE CHOSEN TO NOT LET IT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FORECAST INSTABILITY VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG LESS THAN TODAY. ON MAX/MIN TEMPS EXPECT
MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE LOW 70S INTERIOR TO THE MID-UPPER
70S NEAR THE BEACHES. TOMORROW`S MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING/CLOUDINESS COMPARED TO TODAY. EXPECT
LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES RANGING TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
DEPARTURES FROM FORECAST GUIDANCE WERE MINIMAL. /23 JMM

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PROMOTES A
PRIMARILY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES.  A SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL HAVE EJECTED AWAY FROM THE REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROF LINGERING OVER
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHWESTERNMOST GULF.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE MEANWHILE
ADVANCES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER RIDGE...AND
THEN MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST SUPPORT FROM THE PASSING
WEAK SHORTWAVE.  THE NORTHWEST GULF/LOUISIANA UPPER TROF FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND WHILE A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY BE
PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY SUFFICIENT
FOR LOW END CHANCE POPS...HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW OVERALL AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT REASSESS.  DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSER TO THE COAST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WEAKENS AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY AND
LIKEWISE WEAKENS.  A WEAK UPPER TROF FEATURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OFF TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THE LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER TROF NEARS
THE AREA.  A SURFACE RIDGE OTHERWISE PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND EXPECT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE SEA BREEZE LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES FURTHER TO THE WEST.  HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THEN
GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY SATURDAY.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...LARGELY NO CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 31.18Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. DID ADD SOME VCTS FROM MID-EVENING ON DUE TO AN ORGANIZED
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY APPROACH FROM THE SE...ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES. A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO TEMPO ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED PENDING ANALYSIS OF NEWER FORECAST
GUIDANCE. 23/JMM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LONG FETCH LENGTH STRETCHING
WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR WINDS OR
SEAS. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  91  75  93  75 /  30  30  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  93  77 /  30  30  10  20  10
DESTIN      80  91  79  92  77 /  30  30  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   74  94  72  95  72 /  30  30  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  10  20  10
CAMDEN      74  95  72  95  72 /  30  30  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   72  95  72  95  73 /  30  30  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 301947
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
247 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ON THE LARGE SCALE...THERE IS A LARGE CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR
THE TX/LA BORDER WHERE DEEP-LAYER LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FLUX IS CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BETWEEN THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPLY-REFLECTED S/WAVE THAT WAS
OBSERVED TO BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE U.S. MIDWEST AND INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE PULLS AWAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WRN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE (BUT NOT CAPPED) ON
SUNDAY. WITH FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
SFC-400 HPA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO ONCE AGAIN BE
INITIATED CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PROPAGATE INLAND DURING THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE FROM SFC-850
HPA IS MORE MARKED ON SUNDAY SO THIS MEANS SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE VALUES IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COMPARED TO
TODAY. THE MODELS DO INSIST ON SHOWING A SLUG OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
NWWD FROM SE GLFMEX OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT OUR COASTAL ZONES BY MORNING.
AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE SINCE IT WILL LARGELY BE
DRIVEN BY OUTFLOWS...SO HAVE CHOSEN TO NOT LET IT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FORECAST INSTABILITY VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG LESS THAN TODAY. ON MAX/MIN TEMPS EXPECT
MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE LOW 70S INTERIOR TO THE MID-UPPER
70S NEAR THE BEACHES. TOMORROW`S MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING/CLOUDINESS COMPARED TO TODAY. EXPECT
LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES RANGING TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
DEPARTURES FROM FORECAST GUIDANCE WERE MINIMAL. /23 JMM

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PROMOTES A
PRIMARILY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES.  A SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL HAVE EJECTED AWAY FROM THE REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROF LINGERING OVER
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHWESTERNMOST GULF.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE MEANWHILE
ADVANCES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER RIDGE...AND
THEN MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST SUPPORT FROM THE PASSING
WEAK SHORTWAVE.  THE NORTHWEST GULF/LOUISIANA UPPER TROF FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND WHILE A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY BE
PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY SUFFICIENT
FOR LOW END CHANCE POPS...HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW OVERALL AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT REASSESS.  DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSER TO THE COAST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WEAKENS AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY AND
LIKEWISE WEAKENS.  A WEAK UPPER TROF FEATURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OFF TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THE LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER TROF NEARS
THE AREA.  A SURFACE RIDGE OTHERWISE PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND EXPECT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE SEA BREEZE LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES FURTHER TO THE WEST.  HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THEN
GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY SATURDAY.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...LARGELY NO CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 31.18Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. DID ADD SOME VCTS FROM MID-EVENING ON DUE TO AN ORGANIZED
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY APPROACH FROM THE SE...ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES. A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO TEMPO ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED PENDING ANALYSIS OF NEWER FORECAST
GUIDANCE. 23/JMM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LONG FETCH LENGTH STRETCHING
WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR WINDS OR
SEAS. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  91  75  93  75 /  30  30  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  93  77 /  30  30  10  20  10
DESTIN      80  91  79  92  77 /  30  30  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   74  94  72  95  72 /  30  30  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  10  20  10
CAMDEN      74  95  72  95  72 /  30  30  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   72  95  72  95  73 /  30  30  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 301947
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
247 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ON THE LARGE SCALE...THERE IS A LARGE CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR
THE TX/LA BORDER WHERE DEEP-LAYER LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FLUX IS CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BETWEEN THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPLY-REFLECTED S/WAVE THAT WAS
OBSERVED TO BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE U.S. MIDWEST AND INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE PULLS AWAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WRN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE (BUT NOT CAPPED) ON
SUNDAY. WITH FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
SFC-400 HPA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO ONCE AGAIN BE
INITIATED CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PROPAGATE INLAND DURING THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE FROM SFC-850
HPA IS MORE MARKED ON SUNDAY SO THIS MEANS SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE VALUES IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COMPARED TO
TODAY. THE MODELS DO INSIST ON SHOWING A SLUG OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
NWWD FROM SE GLFMEX OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT OUR COASTAL ZONES BY MORNING.
AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE SINCE IT WILL LARGELY BE
DRIVEN BY OUTFLOWS...SO HAVE CHOSEN TO NOT LET IT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FORECAST INSTABILITY VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG LESS THAN TODAY. ON MAX/MIN TEMPS EXPECT
MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE LOW 70S INTERIOR TO THE MID-UPPER
70S NEAR THE BEACHES. TOMORROW`S MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING/CLOUDINESS COMPARED TO TODAY. EXPECT
LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES RANGING TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
DEPARTURES FROM FORECAST GUIDANCE WERE MINIMAL. /23 JMM

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PROMOTES A
PRIMARILY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES.  A SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL HAVE EJECTED AWAY FROM THE REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROF LINGERING OVER
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHWESTERNMOST GULF.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE MEANWHILE
ADVANCES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER RIDGE...AND
THEN MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST SUPPORT FROM THE PASSING
WEAK SHORTWAVE.  THE NORTHWEST GULF/LOUISIANA UPPER TROF FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND WHILE A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY BE
PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY SUFFICIENT
FOR LOW END CHANCE POPS...HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW OVERALL AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT REASSESS.  DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSER TO THE COAST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WEAKENS AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY AND
LIKEWISE WEAKENS.  A WEAK UPPER TROF FEATURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OFF TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THE LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER TROF NEARS
THE AREA.  A SURFACE RIDGE OTHERWISE PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND EXPECT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE SEA BREEZE LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES FURTHER TO THE WEST.  HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THEN
GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY SATURDAY.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...LARGELY NO CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 31.18Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. DID ADD SOME VCTS FROM MID-EVENING ON DUE TO AN ORGANIZED
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY APPROACH FROM THE SE...ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES. A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO TEMPO ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED PENDING ANALYSIS OF NEWER FORECAST
GUIDANCE. 23/JMM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LONG FETCH LENGTH STRETCHING
WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR WINDS OR
SEAS. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  91  75  93  75 /  30  30  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  93  77 /  30  30  10  20  10
DESTIN      80  91  79  92  77 /  30  30  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   74  94  72  95  72 /  30  30  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  10  20  10
CAMDEN      74  95  72  95  72 /  30  30  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   72  95  72  95  73 /  30  30  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 301947
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
247 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ON THE LARGE SCALE...THERE IS A LARGE CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR
THE TX/LA BORDER WHERE DEEP-LAYER LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FLUX IS CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BETWEEN THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPLY-REFLECTED S/WAVE THAT WAS
OBSERVED TO BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE U.S. MIDWEST AND INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE PULLS AWAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WRN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE (BUT NOT CAPPED) ON
SUNDAY. WITH FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
SFC-400 HPA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO ONCE AGAIN BE
INITIATED CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PROPAGATE INLAND DURING THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE FROM SFC-850
HPA IS MORE MARKED ON SUNDAY SO THIS MEANS SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE VALUES IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COMPARED TO
TODAY. THE MODELS DO INSIST ON SHOWING A SLUG OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
NWWD FROM SE GLFMEX OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT OUR COASTAL ZONES BY MORNING.
AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE SINCE IT WILL LARGELY BE
DRIVEN BY OUTFLOWS...SO HAVE CHOSEN TO NOT LET IT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FORECAST INSTABILITY VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG LESS THAN TODAY. ON MAX/MIN TEMPS EXPECT
MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE LOW 70S INTERIOR TO THE MID-UPPER
70S NEAR THE BEACHES. TOMORROW`S MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING/CLOUDINESS COMPARED TO TODAY. EXPECT
LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES RANGING TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
DEPARTURES FROM FORECAST GUIDANCE WERE MINIMAL. /23 JMM

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PROMOTES A
PRIMARILY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES.  A SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL HAVE EJECTED AWAY FROM THE REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROF LINGERING OVER
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHWESTERNMOST GULF.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE MEANWHILE
ADVANCES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER RIDGE...AND
THEN MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST SUPPORT FROM THE PASSING
WEAK SHORTWAVE.  THE NORTHWEST GULF/LOUISIANA UPPER TROF FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND WHILE A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY BE
PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY SUFFICIENT
FOR LOW END CHANCE POPS...HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW OVERALL AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT REASSESS.  DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSER TO THE COAST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WEAKENS AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY AND
LIKEWISE WEAKENS.  A WEAK UPPER TROF FEATURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OFF TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THE LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER TROF NEARS
THE AREA.  A SURFACE RIDGE OTHERWISE PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND EXPECT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE SEA BREEZE LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES FURTHER TO THE WEST.  HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THEN
GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY SATURDAY.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...LARGELY NO CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 31.18Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. DID ADD SOME VCTS FROM MID-EVENING ON DUE TO AN ORGANIZED
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY APPROACH FROM THE SE...ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES. A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO TEMPO ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED PENDING ANALYSIS OF NEWER FORECAST
GUIDANCE. 23/JMM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LONG FETCH LENGTH STRETCHING
WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR WINDS OR
SEAS. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  91  75  93  75 /  30  30  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  93  77 /  30  30  10  20  10
DESTIN      80  91  79  92  77 /  30  30  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   74  94  72  95  72 /  30  30  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  10  20  10
CAMDEN      74  95  72  95  72 /  30  30  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   72  95  72  95  73 /  30  30  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 301805
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
105 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY CLOUDY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOOKING AT IR SAT THIS
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
STATE. BUT WHAT IS COMPELLING IS ACTUALLY THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THIS IS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHOWERS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE THAT WILL
MOVE IN LATER. WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF IMPACT OVERALL EXCEPT
POSTPONE THE START TIME IN THE EAST...AS THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL
BE HEAT DRIVEN...WHILE THE WEST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY MORE OF THE
TROUGH. KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME AS THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ABOUT THIS AS THE
AREA OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER LOUISIANA AND INTO MISSISSIPPI.

SO FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES GOING UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 5 PM IN THE
EAST OR ALONG AND EAST OF A MONTGOMERY TO ANNISTON LINE. AFTER
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEST OF THIS MONTGOMERY TO
ANNISTON LINE...TO A LINE FROM SELMA TO BIRMINGHAM...LOOKS LIKE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 1 PM...AND THEN
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH 4 PM...THEN MORE NUMEROUS AFTER
4 PM. WEST OF THE BIRMINGHAM TO SELMA LINE WE ARE GOING TO SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN BECOMING NUMEROUS BY 2 PM AND THEN
WIDESPREAD AFTER 4 PM. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS HOUR ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER 21Z...PARTICULARLY FOR
TCL...BHM...EET AND ANB. SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FOR MGM
AND TOI. INCLUDED PREDOMINATE SHRA AFTER 20Z FOR THE NORTH SITES
BUT LEFT IN JUST VCTS FOR MGM AND TOI. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MORNING RIGHT AROUND 10 TO 12Z. WILL AMEND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS NEEDED.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 301805
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
105 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY CLOUDY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOOKING AT IR SAT THIS
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
STATE. BUT WHAT IS COMPELLING IS ACTUALLY THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THIS IS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHOWERS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE THAT WILL
MOVE IN LATER. WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF IMPACT OVERALL EXCEPT
POSTPONE THE START TIME IN THE EAST...AS THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL
BE HEAT DRIVEN...WHILE THE WEST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY MORE OF THE
TROUGH. KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME AS THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ABOUT THIS AS THE
AREA OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER LOUISIANA AND INTO MISSISSIPPI.

SO FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES GOING UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 5 PM IN THE
EAST OR ALONG AND EAST OF A MONTGOMERY TO ANNISTON LINE. AFTER
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEST OF THIS MONTGOMERY TO
ANNISTON LINE...TO A LINE FROM SELMA TO BIRMINGHAM...LOOKS LIKE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 1 PM...AND THEN
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH 4 PM...THEN MORE NUMEROUS AFTER
4 PM. WEST OF THE BIRMINGHAM TO SELMA LINE WE ARE GOING TO SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN BECOMING NUMEROUS BY 2 PM AND THEN
WIDESPREAD AFTER 4 PM. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS HOUR ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER 21Z...PARTICULARLY FOR
TCL...BHM...EET AND ANB. SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FOR MGM
AND TOI. INCLUDED PREDOMINATE SHRA AFTER 20Z FOR THE NORTH SITES
BUT LEFT IN JUST VCTS FOR MGM AND TOI. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MORNING RIGHT AROUND 10 TO 12Z. WILL AMEND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS NEEDED.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 301758 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1119 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
THE MS AND TN VALLEY IS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF IN THE ATLANTIC
AND A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. WV SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME
OVER LA AND MS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH PROVIDED THE FEW SHOWERS SEEN AROUND THIS AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP HAS STAYED TO OUR WEST THUS
FAR.

WITH THE SUN PEEKING OUT IN A FEW LOCATIONS...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ASSISTANCE IN INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW DEW
POINTS IN THE HUN CWA HAVE IMPROVED AND ARE NOW AROUND 7O. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND IS SEEN THROUGHOUT THE
SOUNDING. PULLING IN THE GULF MOISTURE...PWATS ARE AROUND 2 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 1000 TO 15000 J/KG AROUND THE TN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WOULD STILL BE LOOKING AT GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OCCUR WITH STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.

AS FOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS...LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS WE
SEEMED TO BE TOO DRY AND STABLE TO GET ANY PRECIP TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. INCREASED TEMPS BY A DEGREE AS THE COULD COVER IS NOT AS THICK
AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KHSV AND KMSL...BUT VIS COULD DROP TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 12Z
SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINALS.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301758 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1119 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
THE MS AND TN VALLEY IS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF IN THE ATLANTIC
AND A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. WV SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME
OVER LA AND MS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH PROVIDED THE FEW SHOWERS SEEN AROUND THIS AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP HAS STAYED TO OUR WEST THUS
FAR.

WITH THE SUN PEEKING OUT IN A FEW LOCATIONS...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ASSISTANCE IN INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW DEW
POINTS IN THE HUN CWA HAVE IMPROVED AND ARE NOW AROUND 7O. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND IS SEEN THROUGHOUT THE
SOUNDING. PULLING IN THE GULF MOISTURE...PWATS ARE AROUND 2 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 1000 TO 15000 J/KG AROUND THE TN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WOULD STILL BE LOOKING AT GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OCCUR WITH STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.

AS FOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS...LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS WE
SEEMED TO BE TOO DRY AND STABLE TO GET ANY PRECIP TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. INCREASED TEMPS BY A DEGREE AS THE COULD COVER IS NOT AS THICK
AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KHSV AND KMSL...BUT VIS COULD DROP TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 12Z
SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINALS.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 301754 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION [30.12Z ISSUANCE]...LARGELY NO CHANGES COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 31.18Z. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND SOME OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. DID ADD
SOME VCTS FROM MID-EVENING ON DUE TO AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY APPROACH FROM THE SE...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
THE COASTAL SITES. A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO TEMPO ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED PENDING ANALYSIS OF NEWER FORECAST
GUIDANCE. 23/JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMOB 301754 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION [30.12Z ISSUANCE]...LARGELY NO CHANGES COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 31.18Z. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND SOME OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. DID ADD
SOME VCTS FROM MID-EVENING ON DUE TO AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY APPROACH FROM THE SE...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
THE COASTAL SITES. A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO TEMPO ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED PENDING ANALYSIS OF NEWER FORECAST
GUIDANCE. 23/JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
















000
FXUS64 KMOB 301753 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION [30.12Z ISSUANCE]...LARGELY NO CHANGES COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 31.18Z. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND SOME OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. DID ADD
SOME VCTS FROM MID-EVENING ON DUE TO AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY APPROACH FROM THE SE...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
THE COASTAL SITES. A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO TEMPO ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED PENDING ANALYSIS OF NEWER FORECAST
GUIDANCE. 23/JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
















000
FXUS64 KHUN 301619 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1119 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS...CLOUD COVER AND WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MS AND TN VALLEY IS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF IN THE ATLANTIC
AND A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. WV SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME
OVER LA AND MS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH PROVIDED THE FEW SHOWERS SEEN AROUND THIS AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP HAS STAYED TO OUR WEST THUS
FAR.

WITH THE SUN PEEKING OUT IN A FEW LOCATIONS...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ASSISTANCE IN INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW DEW
POINTS IN THE HUN CWA HAVE IMPROVED AND ARE NOW AROUND 7O. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND IS SEEN THROUGHOUT THE
SOUNDING. PULLING IN THE GULF MOISTURE...PWATS ARE AROUND 2 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 1000 TO 15000 J/KG AROUND THE TN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WOULD STILL BE LOOKING AT GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OCCUR WITH STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.

AS FOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS...LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS WE
SEEMED TO BE TOO DRY AND STABLE TO GET ANY PRECIP TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. INCREASED TEMPS BY A DEGREE AS THE COULD COVER IS NOT AS THICK
AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE
TN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. TSRA WILL BE MORE PROLIFIC OVER NW AL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER
SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE TSRA BTWN
30/20Z THROUGH 31/00Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301619 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1119 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS...CLOUD COVER AND WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MS AND TN VALLEY IS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF IN THE ATLANTIC
AND A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. WV SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME
OVER LA AND MS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH PROVIDED THE FEW SHOWERS SEEN AROUND THIS AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP HAS STAYED TO OUR WEST THUS
FAR.

WITH THE SUN PEEKING OUT IN A FEW LOCATIONS...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ASSISTANCE IN INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW DEW
POINTS IN THE HUN CWA HAVE IMPROVED AND ARE NOW AROUND 7O. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND IS SEEN THROUGHOUT THE
SOUNDING. PULLING IN THE GULF MOISTURE...PWATS ARE AROUND 2 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 1000 TO 15000 J/KG AROUND THE TN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WOULD STILL BE LOOKING AT GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OCCUR WITH STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.

AS FOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS...LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS WE
SEEMED TO BE TOO DRY AND STABLE TO GET ANY PRECIP TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. INCREASED TEMPS BY A DEGREE AS THE COULD COVER IS NOT AS THICK
AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE
TN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. TSRA WILL BE MORE PROLIFIC OVER NW AL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER
SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE TSRA BTWN
30/20Z THROUGH 31/00Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301619 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1119 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS...CLOUD COVER AND WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MS AND TN VALLEY IS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF IN THE ATLANTIC
AND A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. WV SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME
OVER LA AND MS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH PROVIDED THE FEW SHOWERS SEEN AROUND THIS AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP HAS STAYED TO OUR WEST THUS
FAR.

WITH THE SUN PEEKING OUT IN A FEW LOCATIONS...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ASSISTANCE IN INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW DEW
POINTS IN THE HUN CWA HAVE IMPROVED AND ARE NOW AROUND 7O. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND IS SEEN THROUGHOUT THE
SOUNDING. PULLING IN THE GULF MOISTURE...PWATS ARE AROUND 2 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 1000 TO 15000 J/KG AROUND THE TN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WOULD STILL BE LOOKING AT GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OCCUR WITH STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.

AS FOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS...LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS WE
SEEMED TO BE TOO DRY AND STABLE TO GET ANY PRECIP TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. INCREASED TEMPS BY A DEGREE AS THE COULD COVER IS NOT AS THICK
AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE
TN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. TSRA WILL BE MORE PROLIFIC OVER NW AL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER
SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE TSRA BTWN
30/20Z THROUGH 31/00Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301619 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1119 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS...CLOUD COVER AND WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MS AND TN VALLEY IS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF IN THE ATLANTIC
AND A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. WV SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME
OVER LA AND MS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH PROVIDED THE FEW SHOWERS SEEN AROUND THIS AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP HAS STAYED TO OUR WEST THUS
FAR.

WITH THE SUN PEEKING OUT IN A FEW LOCATIONS...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ASSISTANCE IN INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW DEW
POINTS IN THE HUN CWA HAVE IMPROVED AND ARE NOW AROUND 7O. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND IS SEEN THROUGHOUT THE
SOUNDING. PULLING IN THE GULF MOISTURE...PWATS ARE AROUND 2 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP TO 1000 TO 15000 J/KG AROUND THE TN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WOULD STILL BE LOOKING AT GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OCCUR WITH STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.

AS FOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS...LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS WE
SEEMED TO BE TOO DRY AND STABLE TO GET ANY PRECIP TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. INCREASED TEMPS BY A DEGREE AS THE COULD COVER IS NOT AS THICK
AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE
TN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. TSRA WILL BE MORE PROLIFIC OVER NW AL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER
SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE TSRA BTWN
30/20Z THROUGH 31/00Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301548
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY CLOUDY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOOKING AT IR SAT THIS
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
STATE. BUT WHAT IS COMPELLING IS ACTUALLY THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THIS IS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHOWERS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE THAT WILL
MOVE IN LATER. WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF IMPACT OVERALL EXCEPT
POSTPONE THE START TIME IN THE EAST...AS THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL
BE HEAT DRIVEN...WHILE THE WEST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY MORE OF THE
TROUGH. KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME AS THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ABOUT THIS AS THE
AREA OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER LOUISIANA AND INTO MISSISSIPPI.

SO FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES GOING UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 5 PM IN THE
EAST OR ALONG AND EAST OF A MONTGOMERY TO ANNISTON LINE. AFTER
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEST OF THIS MONTGOMERY TO
ANNISTON LINE...TO A LINE FROM SELMA TO BIRMINGHAM...LOOKS LIKE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 1 PM...AND THEN
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH 4 PM...THEN MORE NUMEROUS AFTER
4 PM. WEST OF THE BIRMINGHAM TO SELMA LINE WE ARE GOING TO SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN BECOMING NUMEROUS BY 2 PM AND THEN
WIDESPREAD AFTER 4 PM. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MIXED BAG OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE PERIOD. PATCHES OF MVFR
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR EET/BHM WHILE IFR WAS ALL AROUND TOI.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE ALLOWING THESE CLOUD TO
DEVELOP AND THEY WILL RISE INTO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND
BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE WEST...SO INSTALLED A TEMPO GROUP AT TCL. CHANCES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION VCTS/VCSH AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE MAX
HEATING OF THE DAY WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT.

RAIN COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FOLLOWING THE UPPER FEATURE BUT THIS MAY NOT COMPLETELY
PREVENT LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING. DID NOT MENTION YET...BUT WILL
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POSSIBLE LOWERING CEILINGS OR FOG TOWARD 12Z.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. FURTHER TO THE EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS IN PLACE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS CREATED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THIS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LAST NIGHTS
00Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATED 1.39 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP BUT DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
REPORTS OF THE PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE GROUND YET. THIS WILL
CHANGE AS PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN ALABAMA TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTH TODAY ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE THE BEST JUST A BIT TO THE WEST ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE DRIER MID-LEVELS TO THE EAST AND
HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE POP GRADIENT SOME FOR TODAYS WEATHER. IN
ADDITION...HI-RES MODELS MODELS INDICATE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20-30KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL CREATE 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20KTS OR SO. SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES JUST TO
THE WEST. THEREFORE...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT AS THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING.

THE LIFT MOVES TO THE NORTH RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE BEST POPS THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODERATE
LIFT AND DECENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE DRY
AIR MOVING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS LOW AND
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MOVING INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE
OF A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RATHER
ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...PW VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AND EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     89  70  91  69  93 /  60  50  50  20  20
ANNISTON    88  72  91  71  93 /  60  50  40  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  89  73  92  73  94 /  60  50  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  90  73  92  72  95 /  70  50  40  20  20
CALERA      89  73  92  72  93 /  60  50  30  20  20
AUBURN      91  72  92  73  93 /  40  40  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  93  74  95  74  95 /  50  40  20  20  30
TROY        92  72  94  72  94 /  40  40  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 301548
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY CLOUDY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOOKING AT IR SAT THIS
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
STATE. BUT WHAT IS COMPELLING IS ACTUALLY THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THIS IS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHOWERS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE THAT WILL
MOVE IN LATER. WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF IMPACT OVERALL EXCEPT
POSTPONE THE START TIME IN THE EAST...AS THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL
BE HEAT DRIVEN...WHILE THE WEST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY MORE OF THE
TROUGH. KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME AS THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ABOUT THIS AS THE
AREA OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER LOUISIANA AND INTO MISSISSIPPI.

SO FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES GOING UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 5 PM IN THE
EAST OR ALONG AND EAST OF A MONTGOMERY TO ANNISTON LINE. AFTER
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEST OF THIS MONTGOMERY TO
ANNISTON LINE...TO A LINE FROM SELMA TO BIRMINGHAM...LOOKS LIKE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 1 PM...AND THEN
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH 4 PM...THEN MORE NUMEROUS AFTER
4 PM. WEST OF THE BIRMINGHAM TO SELMA LINE WE ARE GOING TO SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN BECOMING NUMEROUS BY 2 PM AND THEN
WIDESPREAD AFTER 4 PM. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MIXED BAG OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE PERIOD. PATCHES OF MVFR
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR EET/BHM WHILE IFR WAS ALL AROUND TOI.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE ALLOWING THESE CLOUD TO
DEVELOP AND THEY WILL RISE INTO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND
BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE WEST...SO INSTALLED A TEMPO GROUP AT TCL. CHANCES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION VCTS/VCSH AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE MAX
HEATING OF THE DAY WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT.

RAIN COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FOLLOWING THE UPPER FEATURE BUT THIS MAY NOT COMPLETELY
PREVENT LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING. DID NOT MENTION YET...BUT WILL
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POSSIBLE LOWERING CEILINGS OR FOG TOWARD 12Z.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. FURTHER TO THE EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS IN PLACE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS CREATED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THIS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LAST NIGHTS
00Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATED 1.39 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP BUT DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
REPORTS OF THE PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE GROUND YET. THIS WILL
CHANGE AS PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN ALABAMA TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTH TODAY ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE THE BEST JUST A BIT TO THE WEST ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE DRIER MID-LEVELS TO THE EAST AND
HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE POP GRADIENT SOME FOR TODAYS WEATHER. IN
ADDITION...HI-RES MODELS MODELS INDICATE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20-30KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL CREATE 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20KTS OR SO. SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES JUST TO
THE WEST. THEREFORE...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT AS THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING.

THE LIFT MOVES TO THE NORTH RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE BEST POPS THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODERATE
LIFT AND DECENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE DRY
AIR MOVING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS LOW AND
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MOVING INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE
OF A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RATHER
ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...PW VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AND EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     89  70  91  69  93 /  60  50  50  20  20
ANNISTON    88  72  91  71  93 /  60  50  40  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  89  73  92  73  94 /  60  50  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  90  73  92  72  95 /  70  50  40  20  20
CALERA      89  73  92  72  93 /  60  50  30  20  20
AUBURN      91  72  92  73  93 /  40  40  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  93  74  95  74  95 /  50  40  20  20  30
TROY        92  72  94  72  94 /  40  40  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 301504 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...THIS AFTERNOON`S RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS MODERATE...

...THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE...

.UPDATE...ON THE VERY LARGE SCALE...THERE IS A LARGE CONFLUENT ZONE
NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FLUX IS CURRENTLY
BEING ENHANCED BETWEEN THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE TO OUR
EAST AND A DEEPLY-REFLECT S/WAVE THAT WAS OBSERVED TO BE MOVING NEWD
ACROSS THE U.S. MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS
FEATURE PULLS AWAY TODAY AND WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WRN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE.

REGIONAL SOUNDINGS FROM LCH-LIX-TAE SHOW QUITE A CONTRAST AND OR
REGION LIES IN THE USUAL TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN DRIER AIR WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE (ESPECIALLY BELOW 850 HPA) JUST TO OUR EAST
AND DEEP MOIST AND SATURATED ADIABATIC CONDITIONS TO OUR WEST. IT IS
VERY INTERESTING THAT LCH OBSERVED SOUNDING PW = 2.68" WHILE TLH IS
1.86". MOST OF OUR REGION LIES CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
RELATIVELY DRIER EASTERN AIRMASS...BUT THAT COULD SPELL SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE ALREADY RECEIVING
MORE INSOLATION EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MLCAPES
AVERAGING 1500-2500 J/KG NOW ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD RISE INTO
THE 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST FIRST (AND CLOSER TO SE MS) AND THEN PROGRESS INLAND LATER
(NOTE THERE IS SOME CINH OVER OUR NE COUNTIES (BUTLER...CRENSHAW AND
COVINGTON) AT THE MOMENT). ISOLATED 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF DOWNDRAFTS. AM CURRENTLY FINE WITH
12H POPS RANGING IN A NW->SE FASHION FROM ~60% OVER INTERIOR SE MS
TO ~30% NEAR DTS.

ON RIP CURRENTS...RE-ASSESSED CONDITIONS AND BASED ON DOMINANT SWELL
PACKET AT 42012 (~6 SEC AND 2 FT) FEEL THAT RISK DOES NOT
SUBSTANTIALLY CHANGE GIVEN FORECAST PREVAILING SYNOPTIC FLOW...TIDAL
RANGE AND ROLE THAT SWELL WOULD PLAY IF IT DID INCREASE JUST A SMALL
BIT (I.E., ~6 SEC AND 3 FT).  OUR EVALUATION STILL SHOWS ALMOST A
MID-RANGE MOD RISK...SO WE FEEL CONFIDENT TO HOLD WITH THAT. MOST
AREA BEACHES AT MID-MORNING WERE FLYING YELLOW FLAGS.

FINALLY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY LAST FEW FRAMES
OF HRRR, ~15-18H) INDICATE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF RELATIVE HIGHER
ABSOLUTE MOISTURE VALUES WHICH ADVECT AROUND THE WWD EXTENSION OF
THE BERMUDA RIDGE FROM THE SE GLFMEX THIS MORNING AND INTO OUR AREA
BY LATE EVENING. THIS COULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT BY 10-20%
(ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND OVER SE ZONES) AND THIS WOULD BE
AFTER THE FIRST ROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL ASSESS
THIS LATER VIA SATELLITE. /23 JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 301504 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...THIS AFTERNOON`S RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS MODERATE...

...THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE...

.UPDATE...ON THE VERY LARGE SCALE...THERE IS A LARGE CONFLUENT ZONE
NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FLUX IS CURRENTLY
BEING ENHANCED BETWEEN THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE TO OUR
EAST AND A DEEPLY-REFLECT S/WAVE THAT WAS OBSERVED TO BE MOVING NEWD
ACROSS THE U.S. MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS
FEATURE PULLS AWAY TODAY AND WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WRN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE.

REGIONAL SOUNDINGS FROM LCH-LIX-TAE SHOW QUITE A CONTRAST AND OR
REGION LIES IN THE USUAL TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN DRIER AIR WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE (ESPECIALLY BELOW 850 HPA) JUST TO OUR EAST
AND DEEP MOIST AND SATURATED ADIABATIC CONDITIONS TO OUR WEST. IT IS
VERY INTERESTING THAT LCH OBSERVED SOUNDING PW = 2.68" WHILE TLH IS
1.86". MOST OF OUR REGION LIES CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
RELATIVELY DRIER EASTERN AIRMASS...BUT THAT COULD SPELL SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE ALREADY RECEIVING
MORE INSOLATION EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MLCAPES
AVERAGING 1500-2500 J/KG NOW ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD RISE INTO
THE 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST FIRST (AND CLOSER TO SE MS) AND THEN PROGRESS INLAND LATER
(NOTE THERE IS SOME CINH OVER OUR NE COUNTIES (BUTLER...CRENSHAW AND
COVINGTON) AT THE MOMENT). ISOLATED 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF DOWNDRAFTS. AM CURRENTLY FINE WITH
12H POPS RANGING IN A NW->SE FASHION FROM ~60% OVER INTERIOR SE MS
TO ~30% NEAR DTS.

ON RIP CURRENTS...RE-ASSESSED CONDITIONS AND BASED ON DOMINANT SWELL
PACKET AT 42012 (~6 SEC AND 2 FT) FEEL THAT RISK DOES NOT
SUBSTANTIALLY CHANGE GIVEN FORECAST PREVAILING SYNOPTIC FLOW...TIDAL
RANGE AND ROLE THAT SWELL WOULD PLAY IF IT DID INCREASE JUST A SMALL
BIT (I.E., ~6 SEC AND 3 FT).  OUR EVALUATION STILL SHOWS ALMOST A
MID-RANGE MOD RISK...SO WE FEEL CONFIDENT TO HOLD WITH THAT. MOST
AREA BEACHES AT MID-MORNING WERE FLYING YELLOW FLAGS.

FINALLY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY LAST FEW FRAMES
OF HRRR, ~15-18H) INDICATE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF RELATIVE HIGHER
ABSOLUTE MOISTURE VALUES WHICH ADVECT AROUND THE WWD EXTENSION OF
THE BERMUDA RIDGE FROM THE SE GLFMEX THIS MORNING AND INTO OUR AREA
BY LATE EVENING. THIS COULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT BY 10-20%
(ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND OVER SE ZONES) AND THIS WOULD BE
AFTER THE FIRST ROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL ASSESS
THIS LATER VIA SATELLITE. /23 JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












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