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000
FXUS64 KBMX 231136
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DAMP AND MUGGY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 86 TO 91 RANGE.

A BOUNDARY IS BROUGHT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP TEMPORARILY IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PLACES LIKE TROY AND EUFAULA. OTHERWISE...DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE AS THE
BULGING RIDGE OUT WEST NUDGES EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AIRMASS
SO COMPLETELY DISREGARDED THE MEX NUMBERS. THE 23/00Z EURO MOS
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER WEST BUT CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND AS NEEDED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
HELP KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
WINDOW.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 231136
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DAMP AND MUGGY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 86 TO 91 RANGE.

A BOUNDARY IS BROUGHT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP TEMPORARILY IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PLACES LIKE TROY AND EUFAULA. OTHERWISE...DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE AS THE
BULGING RIDGE OUT WEST NUDGES EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AIRMASS
SO COMPLETELY DISREGARDED THE MEX NUMBERS. THE 23/00Z EURO MOS
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER WEST BUT CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND AS NEEDED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
HELP KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
WINDOW.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 231101 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
601 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 429 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS
SHOWS MARKED AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAINLY ACROSS
CANADA WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE 600 DAM 500MB RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED MID-LVL LOW THAT
BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY WWRD ALONG THE GULF COAST. A SHORT
WAVELENGTH BUT HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE
US/CANADIAN WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL FIGURE MORE INTO OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. HERE IN THE TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING...EARLY MORNING TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE REGION HAD DROPPED INTO THE UPR 60S. MULTI-
SPECTRAL SAT IMAGERY AND SOME SFC OBS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF JACKSON AND DEKALB COUNTIES. AN SPS
HAS BEEN ISSUED SO FAR TO ADDRESS THIS WEATHER CONCERN. FURTHER
REDUCTIONS IN VIS THIS MORNING MAY NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...FOR WHICH WE WILL BE WATCHING. WITH THAT SAID...LET`S GET
TO THE FCST DETAILS.

THE AFORE-MENTIONED FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THIS WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE FCST FOR THE MORNING HOURS
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE ADVENT OF
DEEPER MIXING. MID-LVL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED EWRD THIS MORNING AND
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 7-9 KFT BELIES THE PRESENCE OF SHEARED MID-
LVL VORTICITY AS ANALYZED BY REGIONAL/GLOBAL MODELS. THIS IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW TO OUR SOUTH. AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE DAY, THIS SHEARED
PORTION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE AREA TODAY. CAPE VALUES ARE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. SHEARING
WINDS ALOFT MAY ACTUALLY ACT TO LIMIT VERTICAL GROWTH, SO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EXIT SOMETIME TOMORROW. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FOR TOMORROW. THE ADDED LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVERNIGHT. THE DEW POINT
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH. THROUGHOUT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
STORM ORGANIZATION. NEVERTHELESS, INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY HEAVIER CELLS. RESPECTABLE PW`S AROUND
1.8-1.9 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR CELLS WITH HVY RAIN...BUT ANY FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOCALIZED.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FOR THURS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE COOLER
AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AS THE WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND.  850 MB TEMPS
REACH A MAX AROUND 22C ON SAT/SUN WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEW POINT VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES OVER 100F AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN VALUES MAY BE THE HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST PAC TROUGH WILL EJECT EWRD ACROSS CANADA
DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN ROUND THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND HELP TO
CARVE A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO
THE ADDED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE POOLING AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A
MIX OF N PAC AND CANADIAN CONTINENTAL AIR. STILL, LOW DEW POINT TEMPS
IN THE 50S APPEAR INCREASINGLY PROBABLE FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPS
MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF MID/LATE SEPTEMBER.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... PATCHY BR WILL REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
THRU ~15Z. SOME NEARBY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TN RIVER, ESPECIALLY IN
NERN AL< WILL EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FG. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THRU THE DAY IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG WITH SUDDEN LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED, HAVE MENTIONED
VCSH IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST, BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED AS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 231101 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
601 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 429 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS
SHOWS MARKED AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAINLY ACROSS
CANADA WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE 600 DAM 500MB RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED MID-LVL LOW THAT
BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY WWRD ALONG THE GULF COAST. A SHORT
WAVELENGTH BUT HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE
US/CANADIAN WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL FIGURE MORE INTO OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. HERE IN THE TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING...EARLY MORNING TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE REGION HAD DROPPED INTO THE UPR 60S. MULTI-
SPECTRAL SAT IMAGERY AND SOME SFC OBS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF JACKSON AND DEKALB COUNTIES. AN SPS
HAS BEEN ISSUED SO FAR TO ADDRESS THIS WEATHER CONCERN. FURTHER
REDUCTIONS IN VIS THIS MORNING MAY NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...FOR WHICH WE WILL BE WATCHING. WITH THAT SAID...LET`S GET
TO THE FCST DETAILS.

THE AFORE-MENTIONED FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THIS WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE FCST FOR THE MORNING HOURS
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE ADVENT OF
DEEPER MIXING. MID-LVL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED EWRD THIS MORNING AND
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 7-9 KFT BELIES THE PRESENCE OF SHEARED MID-
LVL VORTICITY AS ANALYZED BY REGIONAL/GLOBAL MODELS. THIS IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW TO OUR SOUTH. AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE DAY, THIS SHEARED
PORTION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE AREA TODAY. CAPE VALUES ARE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. SHEARING
WINDS ALOFT MAY ACTUALLY ACT TO LIMIT VERTICAL GROWTH, SO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EXIT SOMETIME TOMORROW. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FOR TOMORROW. THE ADDED LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVERNIGHT. THE DEW POINT
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH. THROUGHOUT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
STORM ORGANIZATION. NEVERTHELESS, INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY HEAVIER CELLS. RESPECTABLE PW`S AROUND
1.8-1.9 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR CELLS WITH HVY RAIN...BUT ANY FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOCALIZED.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FOR THURS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE COOLER
AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AS THE WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND.  850 MB TEMPS
REACH A MAX AROUND 22C ON SAT/SUN WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEW POINT VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES OVER 100F AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN VALUES MAY BE THE HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST PAC TROUGH WILL EJECT EWRD ACROSS CANADA
DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN ROUND THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND HELP TO
CARVE A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO
THE ADDED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE POOLING AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A
MIX OF N PAC AND CANADIAN CONTINENTAL AIR. STILL, LOW DEW POINT TEMPS
IN THE 50S APPEAR INCREASINGLY PROBABLE FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPS
MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF MID/LATE SEPTEMBER.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... PATCHY BR WILL REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
THRU ~15Z. SOME NEARBY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TN RIVER, ESPECIALLY IN
NERN AL< WILL EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FG. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THRU THE DAY IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG WITH SUDDEN LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED, HAVE MENTIONED
VCSH IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST, BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED AS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 230941
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST DAY...WITH
POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE FA DRIES
OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGELINE EAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE NEAR
SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITHT HE BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO THE WEST OF
THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST THE DRIER GFS
MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE
ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED THEM FOR THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  20  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16





000
FXUS64 KMOB 230941
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST DAY...WITH
POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE FA DRIES
OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGELINE EAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE NEAR
SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITHT HE BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO THE WEST OF
THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST THE DRIER GFS
MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE
ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED THEM FOR THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  20  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16






000
FXUS64 KHUN 230929
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
429 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS
SHOWS MARKED AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAINLY ACROSS
CANADA WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE 600 DAM 500MB RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED MID-LVL LOW THAT
BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY WWRD ALONG THE GULF COAST. A SHORT
WAVELENGTH BUT HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE
US/CANADIAN WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL FIGURE MORE INTO OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. HERE IN THE TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING...EARLY MORNING TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE REGION HAD DROPPED INTO THE UPR 60S. MULTI-
SPECTRAL SAT IMAGERY AND SOME SFC OBS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF JACKSON AND DEKALB COUNTIES. AN SPS
HAS BEEN ISSUED SO FAR TO ADDRESS THIS WEATHER CONCERN. FURTHER
REDUCTIONS IN VIS THIS MORNING MAY NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...FOR WHICH WE WILL BE WATCHING. WITH THAT SAID...LET`S GET
TO THE FCST DETAILS.

THE AFORE-MENTIONED FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THIS WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE FCST FOR THE MORNING HOURS
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE ADVENT OF
DEEPER MIXING. MID-LVL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED EWRD THIS MORNING AND
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 7-9 KFT BELIES THE PRESENCE OF SHEARED MID-
LVL VORTICITY AS ANALYZED BY REGIONAL/GLOBAL MODELS. THIS IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW TO OUR SOUTH. AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE DAY, THIS SHEARED
PORTION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE AREA TODAY. CAPE VALUES ARE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. SHEARING
WINDS ALOFT MAY ACTUALLY ACT TO LIMIT VERTICAL GROWTH, SO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EXIT SOMETIME TOMORROW. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FOR TOMORROW. THE ADDED LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVERNIGHT. THE DEW POINT
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH. THROUGHOUT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
STORM ORGANIZATION. NEVERTHELESS, INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY HEAVIER CELLS. RESPECTABLE PW`S AROUND
1.8-1.9 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR CELLS WITH HVY RAIN...BUT ANY FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOCALIZED.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FOR THURS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE COOLER
AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AS THE WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND.  850 MB TEMPS
REACH A MAX AROUND 22C ON SAT/SUN WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEW POINT VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES OVER 100F AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN VALUES MAY BE THE HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST PAC TROUGH WILL EJECT EWRD ACROSS CANADA
DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN ROUND THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND HELP TO
CARVE A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO
THE ADDED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE POOLING AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A
MIX OF N PAC AND CANADIAN CONTINENTAL AIR. STILL, LOW DEW POINT TEMPS
IN THE 50S APPEAR INCREASINGLY PROBABLE FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPS
MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF MID/LATE SEPTEMBER.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1202 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV BY DAYBREAK,
BUT WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 14Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTN, WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY.
CONVECTION WOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    91  72  84  66 /  50  50  60  10
SHOALS        91  72  85  65 /  40  50  40  10
VINEMONT      90  70  84  67 /  50  40  60  10
FAYETTEVILLE  89  70  82  64 /  50  60  40  10
ALBERTVILLE   87  73  84  68 /  50  40  60  10
FORT PAYNE    87  68  84  65 /  50  40  60  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230929
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
429 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS
SHOWS MARKED AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAINLY ACROSS
CANADA WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE 600 DAM 500MB RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED MID-LVL LOW THAT
BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY WWRD ALONG THE GULF COAST. A SHORT
WAVELENGTH BUT HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE
US/CANADIAN WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL FIGURE MORE INTO OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. HERE IN THE TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING...EARLY MORNING TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE REGION HAD DROPPED INTO THE UPR 60S. MULTI-
SPECTRAL SAT IMAGERY AND SOME SFC OBS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF JACKSON AND DEKALB COUNTIES. AN SPS
HAS BEEN ISSUED SO FAR TO ADDRESS THIS WEATHER CONCERN. FURTHER
REDUCTIONS IN VIS THIS MORNING MAY NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...FOR WHICH WE WILL BE WATCHING. WITH THAT SAID...LET`S GET
TO THE FCST DETAILS.

THE AFORE-MENTIONED FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THIS WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE FCST FOR THE MORNING HOURS
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE ADVENT OF
DEEPER MIXING. MID-LVL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED EWRD THIS MORNING AND
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 7-9 KFT BELIES THE PRESENCE OF SHEARED MID-
LVL VORTICITY AS ANALYZED BY REGIONAL/GLOBAL MODELS. THIS IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW TO OUR SOUTH. AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE DAY, THIS SHEARED
PORTION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE AREA TODAY. CAPE VALUES ARE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. SHEARING
WINDS ALOFT MAY ACTUALLY ACT TO LIMIT VERTICAL GROWTH, SO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EXIT SOMETIME TOMORROW. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FOR TOMORROW. THE ADDED LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVERNIGHT. THE DEW POINT
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH. THROUGHOUT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
STORM ORGANIZATION. NEVERTHELESS, INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY HEAVIER CELLS. RESPECTABLE PW`S AROUND
1.8-1.9 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR CELLS WITH HVY RAIN...BUT ANY FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOCALIZED.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FOR THURS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE COOLER
AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AS THE WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND.  850 MB TEMPS
REACH A MAX AROUND 22C ON SAT/SUN WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEW POINT VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES OVER 100F AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN VALUES MAY BE THE HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST PAC TROUGH WILL EJECT EWRD ACROSS CANADA
DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN ROUND THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND HELP TO
CARVE A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO
THE ADDED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE POOLING AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A
MIX OF N PAC AND CANADIAN CONTINENTAL AIR. STILL, LOW DEW POINT TEMPS
IN THE 50S APPEAR INCREASINGLY PROBABLE FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPS
MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF MID/LATE SEPTEMBER.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1202 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV BY DAYBREAK,
BUT WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 14Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTN, WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY.
CONVECTION WOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    91  72  84  66 /  50  50  60  10
SHOALS        91  72  85  65 /  40  50  40  10
VINEMONT      90  70  84  67 /  50  40  60  10
FAYETTEVILLE  89  70  82  64 /  50  60  40  10
ALBERTVILLE   87  73  84  68 /  50  40  60  10
FORT PAYNE    87  68  84  65 /  50  40  60  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230929
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
429 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS
SHOWS MARKED AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAINLY ACROSS
CANADA WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE 600 DAM 500MB RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED MID-LVL LOW THAT
BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY WWRD ALONG THE GULF COAST. A SHORT
WAVELENGTH BUT HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE
US/CANADIAN WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL FIGURE MORE INTO OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. HERE IN THE TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING...EARLY MORNING TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE REGION HAD DROPPED INTO THE UPR 60S. MULTI-
SPECTRAL SAT IMAGERY AND SOME SFC OBS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF JACKSON AND DEKALB COUNTIES. AN SPS
HAS BEEN ISSUED SO FAR TO ADDRESS THIS WEATHER CONCERN. FURTHER
REDUCTIONS IN VIS THIS MORNING MAY NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...FOR WHICH WE WILL BE WATCHING. WITH THAT SAID...LET`S GET
TO THE FCST DETAILS.

THE AFORE-MENTIONED FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THIS WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE FCST FOR THE MORNING HOURS
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE ADVENT OF
DEEPER MIXING. MID-LVL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED EWRD THIS MORNING AND
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 7-9 KFT BELIES THE PRESENCE OF SHEARED MID-
LVL VORTICITY AS ANALYZED BY REGIONAL/GLOBAL MODELS. THIS IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW TO OUR SOUTH. AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE DAY, THIS SHEARED
PORTION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE AREA TODAY. CAPE VALUES ARE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. SHEARING
WINDS ALOFT MAY ACTUALLY ACT TO LIMIT VERTICAL GROWTH, SO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EXIT SOMETIME TOMORROW. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FOR TOMORROW. THE ADDED LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVERNIGHT. THE DEW POINT
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH. THROUGHOUT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
STORM ORGANIZATION. NEVERTHELESS, INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY HEAVIER CELLS. RESPECTABLE PW`S AROUND
1.8-1.9 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR CELLS WITH HVY RAIN...BUT ANY FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOCALIZED.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FOR THURS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE COOLER
AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AS THE WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND.  850 MB TEMPS
REACH A MAX AROUND 22C ON SAT/SUN WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEW POINT VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES OVER 100F AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN VALUES MAY BE THE HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST PAC TROUGH WILL EJECT EWRD ACROSS CANADA
DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN ROUND THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND HELP TO
CARVE A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO
THE ADDED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE POOLING AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A
MIX OF N PAC AND CANADIAN CONTINENTAL AIR. STILL, LOW DEW POINT TEMPS
IN THE 50S APPEAR INCREASINGLY PROBABLE FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPS
MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF MID/LATE SEPTEMBER.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1202 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV BY DAYBREAK,
BUT WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 14Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTN, WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY.
CONVECTION WOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    91  72  84  66 /  50  50  60  10
SHOALS        91  72  85  65 /  40  50  40  10
VINEMONT      90  70  84  67 /  50  40  60  10
FAYETTEVILLE  89  70  82  64 /  50  60  40  10
ALBERTVILLE   87  73  84  68 /  50  40  60  10
FORT PAYNE    87  68  84  65 /  50  40  60  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230929
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
429 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS
SHOWS MARKED AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAINLY ACROSS
CANADA WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE 600 DAM 500MB RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED MID-LVL LOW THAT
BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY WWRD ALONG THE GULF COAST. A SHORT
WAVELENGTH BUT HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE
US/CANADIAN WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL FIGURE MORE INTO OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. HERE IN THE TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING...EARLY MORNING TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE REGION HAD DROPPED INTO THE UPR 60S. MULTI-
SPECTRAL SAT IMAGERY AND SOME SFC OBS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF JACKSON AND DEKALB COUNTIES. AN SPS
HAS BEEN ISSUED SO FAR TO ADDRESS THIS WEATHER CONCERN. FURTHER
REDUCTIONS IN VIS THIS MORNING MAY NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...FOR WHICH WE WILL BE WATCHING. WITH THAT SAID...LET`S GET
TO THE FCST DETAILS.

THE AFORE-MENTIONED FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THIS WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE FCST FOR THE MORNING HOURS
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE ADVENT OF
DEEPER MIXING. MID-LVL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED EWRD THIS MORNING AND
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 7-9 KFT BELIES THE PRESENCE OF SHEARED MID-
LVL VORTICITY AS ANALYZED BY REGIONAL/GLOBAL MODELS. THIS IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW TO OUR SOUTH. AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE DAY, THIS SHEARED
PORTION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE AREA TODAY. CAPE VALUES ARE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. SHEARING
WINDS ALOFT MAY ACTUALLY ACT TO LIMIT VERTICAL GROWTH, SO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EXIT SOMETIME TOMORROW. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FOR TOMORROW. THE ADDED LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVERNIGHT. THE DEW POINT
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH. THROUGHOUT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
STORM ORGANIZATION. NEVERTHELESS, INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY HEAVIER CELLS. RESPECTABLE PW`S AROUND
1.8-1.9 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR CELLS WITH HVY RAIN...BUT ANY FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOCALIZED.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FOR THURS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE COOLER
AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AS THE WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND.  850 MB TEMPS
REACH A MAX AROUND 22C ON SAT/SUN WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEW POINT VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES OVER 100F AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN VALUES MAY BE THE HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST PAC TROUGH WILL EJECT EWRD ACROSS CANADA
DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN ROUND THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND HELP TO
CARVE A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO
THE ADDED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE POOLING AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A
MIX OF N PAC AND CANADIAN CONTINENTAL AIR. STILL, LOW DEW POINT TEMPS
IN THE 50S APPEAR INCREASINGLY PROBABLE FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPS
MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF MID/LATE SEPTEMBER.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1202 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV BY DAYBREAK,
BUT WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 14Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTN, WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY.
CONVECTION WOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    91  72  84  66 /  50  50  60  10
SHOALS        91  72  85  65 /  40  50  40  10
VINEMONT      90  70  84  67 /  50  40  60  10
FAYETTEVILLE  89  70  82  64 /  50  60  40  10
ALBERTVILLE   87  73  84  68 /  50  40  60  10
FORT PAYNE    87  68  84  65 /  50  40  60  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 230820
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
320 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DAMP AND MUGGY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 86 TO 91 RANGE.

A BOUNDARY IS BROUGHT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP TEMPORARILY IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PLACES LIKE TROY AND EUFAULA. OTHERWISE...DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE AS THE
BULGING RIDGE OUT WEST NUDGES EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AIRMASS
SO COMPLETELY DISREGARDED THE MEX NUMBERS. THE 23/00Z EURO MOS
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP FORECAST CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/BR DEVELOPING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA WAS GENERALLY CLEAR. INCREASED THE FOG RESTRICTIONS SOUTH
TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES BECOMING A LOW CLOUD DECK. IT APPEARS
THERE WILL STILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ACTING ON COPIOUS MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE A BIT LESSER COVERAGE TOMORROW...BUT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A CHANCE NEAR THE TERMINALS THAT VCTS IS
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  71  86  68  87 /  40  40  60  10  10
ANNISTON    88  72  86  70  87 /  40  30  60  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  89  73  87  70  89 /  40  40  60  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  73  88  71  91 /  40  30  60  10  10
CALERA      89  72  87  71  89 /  40  30  60  10  10
AUBURN      88  71  87  70  87 /  30  20  60  30  20
MONTGOMERY  91  72  90  73  91 /  30  20  60  30  20
TROY        90  71  90  71  89 /  20  20  60  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 230502 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 909 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OVER SERN LA WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BEST CHC OF
PCPN OVERNIGHT TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BUT THINK THAT COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THUS WILL KEEP 20 POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SILENT 14 POP. TEMPS/WIND/SKY COVER LOOKS GOOD
ATTM.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV BY DAYBREAK,
BUT WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 14Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTN, WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY.
CONVECTION WOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230502 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 909 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OVER SERN LA WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BEST CHC OF
PCPN OVERNIGHT TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BUT THINK THAT COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THUS WILL KEEP 20 POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SILENT 14 POP. TEMPS/WIND/SKY COVER LOOKS GOOD
ATTM.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV BY DAYBREAK,
BUT WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 14Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTN, WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY.
CONVECTION WOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 230457
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. A LOT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AND INTERSECTIONS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH AIR PARCELS
PAST THE LFC...WHICH WAS ONLY MEASURED AT AROUND 3800 FEET BASED
ON THE 00Z KBMX SOUNDING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE THAT
LFC...AND MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH WITH PWATS OF 1.99 INCHES.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 1AM TONIGHT WHERE THOSE BOUNDARIES
ARE COLLIDING...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON TRACK FOR
THIS EVENING...AND MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE. UPDATES
ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP FORECAST CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/BR DEVELOPING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA WAS GENERALLY CLEAR. INCREASED THE FOG RESTRICTIONS SOUTH
TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES BECOMING A LOW CLOUD DECK. IT APPEARS
THERE WILL STILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ACTING ON COPIOUS MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE A BIT LESSER COVERAGE TOMORROW...BUT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A CHANCE NEAR THE TERMINALS THAT VCTS IS
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUFFICIENT
LIFT ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...SENDING SEVERAL IMPULSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COMING
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...WEAKER ONE...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LOOKING DRY THOUGH.

THE SECOND IMPULSE IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION GETTING EVEN THIS EARLY.
IT LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WHILE IT IS A WEEK
AWAY...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RIVAL THE ONE FROM LAST WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROFING
EAST WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE.

17/KLAWS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  88  71  86  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
ANNISTON    70  88  72  87  70 /  30  40  30  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  89  73  88  70 /  30  40  40  60  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  90  73  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
CALERA      72  89  72  88  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
AUBURN      70  88  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  72  91  73  90  72 /  20  30  20  60  40
TROY        70  91  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 230457
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. A LOT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AND INTERSECTIONS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH AIR PARCELS
PAST THE LFC...WHICH WAS ONLY MEASURED AT AROUND 3800 FEET BASED
ON THE 00Z KBMX SOUNDING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE THAT
LFC...AND MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH WITH PWATS OF 1.99 INCHES.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 1AM TONIGHT WHERE THOSE BOUNDARIES
ARE COLLIDING...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON TRACK FOR
THIS EVENING...AND MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE. UPDATES
ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP FORECAST CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/BR DEVELOPING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA WAS GENERALLY CLEAR. INCREASED THE FOG RESTRICTIONS SOUTH
TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES BECOMING A LOW CLOUD DECK. IT APPEARS
THERE WILL STILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ACTING ON COPIOUS MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE A BIT LESSER COVERAGE TOMORROW...BUT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A CHANCE NEAR THE TERMINALS THAT VCTS IS
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUFFICIENT
LIFT ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...SENDING SEVERAL IMPULSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COMING
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...WEAKER ONE...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LOOKING DRY THOUGH.

THE SECOND IMPULSE IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION GETTING EVEN THIS EARLY.
IT LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WHILE IT IS A WEEK
AWAY...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RIVAL THE ONE FROM LAST WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROFING
EAST WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE.

17/KLAWS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  88  71  86  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
ANNISTON    70  88  72  87  70 /  30  40  30  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  89  73  88  70 /  30  40  40  60  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  90  73  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
CALERA      72  89  72  88  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
AUBURN      70  88  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  72  91  73  90  72 /  20  30  20  60  40
TROY        70  91  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 230457
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. A LOT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AND INTERSECTIONS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH AIR PARCELS
PAST THE LFC...WHICH WAS ONLY MEASURED AT AROUND 3800 FEET BASED
ON THE 00Z KBMX SOUNDING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE THAT
LFC...AND MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH WITH PWATS OF 1.99 INCHES.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 1AM TONIGHT WHERE THOSE BOUNDARIES
ARE COLLIDING...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON TRACK FOR
THIS EVENING...AND MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE. UPDATES
ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP FORECAST CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/BR DEVELOPING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA WAS GENERALLY CLEAR. INCREASED THE FOG RESTRICTIONS SOUTH
TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES BECOMING A LOW CLOUD DECK. IT APPEARS
THERE WILL STILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ACTING ON COPIOUS MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE A BIT LESSER COVERAGE TOMORROW...BUT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A CHANCE NEAR THE TERMINALS THAT VCTS IS
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUFFICIENT
LIFT ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...SENDING SEVERAL IMPULSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COMING
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...WEAKER ONE...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LOOKING DRY THOUGH.

THE SECOND IMPULSE IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION GETTING EVEN THIS EARLY.
IT LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WHILE IT IS A WEEK
AWAY...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RIVAL THE ONE FROM LAST WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROFING
EAST WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE.

17/KLAWS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  88  71  86  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
ANNISTON    70  88  72  87  70 /  30  40  30  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  89  73  88  70 /  30  40  40  60  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  90  73  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
CALERA      72  89  72  88  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
AUBURN      70  88  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  72  91  73  90  72 /  20  30  20  60  40
TROY        70  91  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 230457
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. A LOT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AND INTERSECTIONS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH AIR PARCELS
PAST THE LFC...WHICH WAS ONLY MEASURED AT AROUND 3800 FEET BASED
ON THE 00Z KBMX SOUNDING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE THAT
LFC...AND MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH WITH PWATS OF 1.99 INCHES.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 1AM TONIGHT WHERE THOSE BOUNDARIES
ARE COLLIDING...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON TRACK FOR
THIS EVENING...AND MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE. UPDATES
ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP FORECAST CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/BR DEVELOPING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA WAS GENERALLY CLEAR. INCREASED THE FOG RESTRICTIONS SOUTH
TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES BECOMING A LOW CLOUD DECK. IT APPEARS
THERE WILL STILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ACTING ON COPIOUS MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE A BIT LESSER COVERAGE TOMORROW...BUT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A CHANCE NEAR THE TERMINALS THAT VCTS IS
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUFFICIENT
LIFT ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...SENDING SEVERAL IMPULSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COMING
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...WEAKER ONE...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LOOKING DRY THOUGH.

THE SECOND IMPULSE IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION GETTING EVEN THIS EARLY.
IT LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WHILE IT IS A WEEK
AWAY...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RIVAL THE ONE FROM LAST WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROFING
EAST WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE.

17/KLAWS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  88  71  86  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
ANNISTON    70  88  72  87  70 /  30  40  30  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  89  73  88  70 /  30  40  40  60  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  90  73  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
CALERA      72  89  72  88  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
AUBURN      70  88  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  72  91  73  90  72 /  20  30  20  60  40
TROY        70  91  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 230433 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION [23.06Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...LINGERING CLOUDS
FROM DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA ARE AT MID/HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND FLOW. WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME CU
WITH BASES AROUND 3 KFT ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING BY AND AFTER 23.15Z. /10

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 936 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
EVENING...STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MINIMUM OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE. LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST ON RADAR
BUT ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE START
OF THE SHIFT. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED THE PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING TO 20% OR LESS. EXPECT
TO BEGIN SEEING MORE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES AND BETTER LIFT SETS UP ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO
73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10

&&

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY]...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  20  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 230433 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION [23.06Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...LINGERING CLOUDS
FROM DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA ARE AT MID/HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND FLOW. WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME CU
WITH BASES AROUND 3 KFT ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING BY AND AFTER 23.15Z. /10

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 936 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
EVENING...STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MINIMUM OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE. LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST ON RADAR
BUT ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE START
OF THE SHIFT. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED THE PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING TO 20% OR LESS. EXPECT
TO BEGIN SEEING MORE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES AND BETTER LIFT SETS UP ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO
73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10

&&

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY]...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  20  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 230433 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION [23.06Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...LINGERING CLOUDS
FROM DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA ARE AT MID/HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND FLOW. WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME CU
WITH BASES AROUND 3 KFT ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING BY AND AFTER 23.15Z. /10

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 936 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
EVENING...STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MINIMUM OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE. LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST ON RADAR
BUT ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE START
OF THE SHIFT. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED THE PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING TO 20% OR LESS. EXPECT
TO BEGIN SEEING MORE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES AND BETTER LIFT SETS UP ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO
73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10

&&

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY]...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  20  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KBMX 230314
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. A LOT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AND INTERSECTIONS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH AIR PARCELS
PAST THE LFC...WHICH WAS ONLY MEASURED AT AROUND 3800 FEET BASED
ON THE 00Z KBMX SOUNDING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE THAT
LFC...AND MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH WITH PWATS OF 1.99 INCHES.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 1AM TONIGHT WHERE THOSE BOUNDARIES
ARE COLLIDING...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON TRACK FOR
THIS EVENING...AND MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE. UPDATES
ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP FORECAST CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. FOG
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH VIS DOWN TO 1-2SM AT
TIMES.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND MOVING WESTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS A RATHER HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PRECIP
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND HIGH
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAPE VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED EVEN WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MOST CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SHOWERS...THERE CERTAINLY IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDER HERE AND THERE.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE.

SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. BROUGHT THE MIXTURE OF BR AND CEILINGS
IN AFTER 06Z. EXTENDED THE LOWER CEILINGS A BIT LONGER INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THEY RISE TO VFR. THEN ADDED MENTION OF VCTS AGAIN
AFTER 18Z. WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGHOUT.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUFFICIENT
LIFT ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...SENDING SEVERAL IMPULSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COMING
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...WEAKER ONE...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LOOKING DRY THOUGH.

THE SECOND IMPULSE IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION GETTING EVEN THIS EARLY.
IT LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WHILE IT IS A WEEK
AWAY...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RIVAL THE ONE FROM LAST WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROFING
EAST WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE.

17/KLAWS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  88  71  86  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
ANNISTON    70  88  72  87  70 /  30  40  30  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  89  73  88  70 /  30  40  40  60  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  90  73  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
CALERA      72  89  72  88  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
AUBURN      70  88  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  72  91  73  90  72 /  20  30  20  60  40
TROY        70  91  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 230314
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. A LOT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AND INTERSECTIONS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH AIR PARCELS
PAST THE LFC...WHICH WAS ONLY MEASURED AT AROUND 3800 FEET BASED
ON THE 00Z KBMX SOUNDING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE THAT
LFC...AND MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH WITH PWATS OF 1.99 INCHES.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 1AM TONIGHT WHERE THOSE BOUNDARIES
ARE COLLIDING...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON TRACK FOR
THIS EVENING...AND MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE. UPDATES
ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP FORECAST CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. FOG
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH VIS DOWN TO 1-2SM AT
TIMES.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND MOVING WESTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS A RATHER HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PRECIP
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND HIGH
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAPE VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED EVEN WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MOST CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SHOWERS...THERE CERTAINLY IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDER HERE AND THERE.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE.

SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. BROUGHT THE MIXTURE OF BR AND CEILINGS
IN AFTER 06Z. EXTENDED THE LOWER CEILINGS A BIT LONGER INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THEY RISE TO VFR. THEN ADDED MENTION OF VCTS AGAIN
AFTER 18Z. WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGHOUT.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUFFICIENT
LIFT ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...SENDING SEVERAL IMPULSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COMING
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...WEAKER ONE...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LOOKING DRY THOUGH.

THE SECOND IMPULSE IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION GETTING EVEN THIS EARLY.
IT LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WHILE IT IS A WEEK
AWAY...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RIVAL THE ONE FROM LAST WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROFING
EAST WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE.

17/KLAWS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  88  71  86  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
ANNISTON    70  88  72  87  70 /  30  40  30  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  89  73  88  70 /  30  40  40  60  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  90  73  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
CALERA      72  89  72  88  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
AUBURN      70  88  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  72  91  73  90  72 /  20  30  20  60  40
TROY        70  91  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 230236 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
936 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
EVENING...STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MINIMUM OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE. LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST ON RADAR
BUT ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE START
OF THE SHIFT. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED THE PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING TO 20% OR LESS. EXPECT
TO BEGIN SEEING MORE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES AND BETTER LIFT SETS UP ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO
73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION [23.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...BULK OF CONVECTION
IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF A
POP-UP SHRA/TSRA IN THE NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND CONDITIONS. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME CU WITH BASES AROUND 3
KFT ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING BY AND AFTER 23.15Z. /10

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY]...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  20  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 230236 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
936 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
EVENING...STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MINIMUM OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE. LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST ON RADAR
BUT ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE START
OF THE SHIFT. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED THE PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING TO 20% OR LESS. EXPECT
TO BEGIN SEEING MORE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES AND BETTER LIFT SETS UP ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO
73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION [23.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...BULK OF CONVECTION
IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF A
POP-UP SHRA/TSRA IN THE NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND CONDITIONS. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME CU WITH BASES AROUND 3
KFT ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING BY AND AFTER 23.15Z. /10

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY]...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  20  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 230236 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
936 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
EVENING...STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MINIMUM OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE. LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST ON RADAR
BUT ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE START
OF THE SHIFT. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED THE PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING TO 20% OR LESS. EXPECT
TO BEGIN SEEING MORE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES AND BETTER LIFT SETS UP ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO
73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION [23.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...BULK OF CONVECTION
IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF A
POP-UP SHRA/TSRA IN THE NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND CONDITIONS. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME CU WITH BASES AROUND 3
KFT ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING BY AND AFTER 23.15Z. /10

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY]...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  20  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 230236 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
936 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
EVENING...STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MINIMUM OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE. LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST ON RADAR
BUT ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE START
OF THE SHIFT. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED THE PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING TO 20% OR LESS. EXPECT
TO BEGIN SEEING MORE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES AND BETTER LIFT SETS UP ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO
73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION [23.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...BULK OF CONVECTION
IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF A
POP-UP SHRA/TSRA IN THE NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND CONDITIONS. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME CU WITH BASES AROUND 3
KFT ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING BY AND AFTER 23.15Z. /10

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY]...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  20  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 230209
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
909 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OVER SERN LA WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BEST CHC OF
PCPN OVERNIGHT TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BUT THINK THAT COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THUS WILL KEEP 20 POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SILENT 14 POP. TEMPS/WIND/SKY COVER LOOKS GOOD
ATTM.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 710 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY EAST OF I65 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
PCPN IN KMSL TAF FOR THIS EVENING...ONLY IN THE KHSV TAF. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO PRODUCE MORE SCT
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.


07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY CAN BE
SEEN ON AREA RADARS PRIMARILY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH
OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SO FAR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN PREVALENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND RETARD SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL.

EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BEFORE THEY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE LOW NEAR MOBILE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS HARD TO DECHIPER FROM THE MODELS.
MODELS DO SEEM TO AGREE THAT A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE PUSHES
SOUTHEAST FROM MISSOURI AND INDIANA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN TODAY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE MODELS PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH OF CULLMAN...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT WEAKENS EVEN MORE. AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING KEEPING AN ISOLATED POP IN THE FORECAST
ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...TAKING OUT ISOLATED POP. THIS DRY TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS EVEN DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE STRONGER 850 MB (30 KTS) AND 500 MB (40 KTS)
WIND FIELDS AND DECENT CAPE VALUES. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230209
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
909 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OVER SERN LA WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BEST CHC OF
PCPN OVERNIGHT TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BUT THINK THAT COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THUS WILL KEEP 20 POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SILENT 14 POP. TEMPS/WIND/SKY COVER LOOKS GOOD
ATTM.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 710 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY EAST OF I65 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
PCPN IN KMSL TAF FOR THIS EVENING...ONLY IN THE KHSV TAF. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO PRODUCE MORE SCT
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.


07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY CAN BE
SEEN ON AREA RADARS PRIMARILY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH
OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SO FAR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN PREVALENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND RETARD SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL.

EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BEFORE THEY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE LOW NEAR MOBILE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS HARD TO DECHIPER FROM THE MODELS.
MODELS DO SEEM TO AGREE THAT A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE PUSHES
SOUTHEAST FROM MISSOURI AND INDIANA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN TODAY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE MODELS PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH OF CULLMAN...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT WEAKENS EVEN MORE. AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING KEEPING AN ISOLATED POP IN THE FORECAST
ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...TAKING OUT ISOLATED POP. THIS DRY TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS EVEN DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE STRONGER 850 MB (30 KTS) AND 500 MB (40 KTS)
WIND FIELDS AND DECENT CAPE VALUES. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230010
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
710 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY CAN BE
SEEN ON AREA RADARS PRIMARILY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH
OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SO FAR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN PREVALENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND RETARD SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL.

EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BEFORE THEY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE LOW NEAR MOBILE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS HARD TO DECHIPER FROM THE MODELS.
MODELS DO SEEM TO AGREE THAT A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE PUSHES
SOUTHEAST FROM MISSOURI AND INDIANA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN TODAY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE MODELS PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH OF CULLMAN...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT WEAKENS EVEN MORE. AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING KEEPING AN ISOLATED POP IN THE FORECAST
ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...TAKING OUT ISOLATED POP. THIS DRY TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS EVEN DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE STRONGER 850 MB (30 KTS) AND 500 MB (40 KTS)
WIND FIELDS AND DECENT CAPE VALUES. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY EAST OF I65 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
PCPN IN KMSL TAF FOR THIS EVENING...ONLY IN THE KHSV TAF. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO PRODUCE MORE SCT
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.


07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230010
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
710 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY CAN BE
SEEN ON AREA RADARS PRIMARILY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH
OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SO FAR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN PREVALENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND RETARD SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL.

EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BEFORE THEY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE LOW NEAR MOBILE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS HARD TO DECHIPER FROM THE MODELS.
MODELS DO SEEM TO AGREE THAT A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE PUSHES
SOUTHEAST FROM MISSOURI AND INDIANA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN TODAY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE MODELS PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH OF CULLMAN...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT WEAKENS EVEN MORE. AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING KEEPING AN ISOLATED POP IN THE FORECAST
ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...TAKING OUT ISOLATED POP. THIS DRY TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS EVEN DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE STRONGER 850 MB (30 KTS) AND 500 MB (40 KTS)
WIND FIELDS AND DECENT CAPE VALUES. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY EAST OF I65 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
PCPN IN KMSL TAF FOR THIS EVENING...ONLY IN THE KHSV TAF. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO PRODUCE MORE SCT
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.


07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 222341
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUFFICIENT
LIFT ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...SENDING SEVERAL IMPULSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COMING
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...WEAKER ONE...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LOOKING DRY THOUGH.

THE SECOND IMPULSE IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION GETTING EVEN THIS EARLY.
IT LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WHILE IT IS A WEEK
AWAY...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RIVAL THE ONE FROM LAST WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROFING
EAST WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE.

17/KLAWS


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP FORECAST CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. FOG
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH VIS DOWN TO 1-2SM AT
TIMES.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPI AND MOVING WESTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS A RATHER HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PRECIP
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND HIGH
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAPE VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED EVEN WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MOST CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SHOWERS...THERE CERTAINLY IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDER HERE AND THERE.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE.

SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. BROUGHT THE MIXTURE OF BR AND CEILINGS
IN AFTER 06Z. EXTENDED THE LOWER CEILINGS A BIT LONGER INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THEY RISE TO VFR. THEN ADDED MENTION OF VCTS AGAIN
AFTER 18Z. WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGHOUT.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  88  71  86  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
ANNISTON    70  88  72  87  70 /  30  40  30  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  89  73  88  70 /  30  40  40  60  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
CALERA      71  89  72  88  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
AUBURN      70  88  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  90  72 /  40  30  20  60  40
TROY        70  91  71  89  71 /  40  20  20  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 222341
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUFFICIENT
LIFT ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...SENDING SEVERAL IMPULSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COMING
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...WEAKER ONE...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LOOKING DRY THOUGH.

THE SECOND IMPULSE IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION GETTING EVEN THIS EARLY.
IT LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WHILE IT IS A WEEK
AWAY...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RIVAL THE ONE FROM LAST WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROFING
EAST WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE.

17/KLAWS


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP FORECAST CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. FOG
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH VIS DOWN TO 1-2SM AT
TIMES.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPI AND MOVING WESTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS A RATHER HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PRECIP
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND HIGH
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAPE VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED EVEN WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MOST CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SHOWERS...THERE CERTAINLY IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDER HERE AND THERE.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE.

SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. BROUGHT THE MIXTURE OF BR AND CEILINGS
IN AFTER 06Z. EXTENDED THE LOWER CEILINGS A BIT LONGER INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THEY RISE TO VFR. THEN ADDED MENTION OF VCTS AGAIN
AFTER 18Z. WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGHOUT.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  88  71  86  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
ANNISTON    70  88  72  87  70 /  30  40  30  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  89  73  88  70 /  30  40  40  60  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
CALERA      71  89  72  88  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
AUBURN      70  88  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  90  72 /  40  30  20  60  40
TROY        70  91  71  89  71 /  40  20  20  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 222332 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION [23.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...BULK OF CONVECTION
IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF A
POPUP SHRA/TSRA IN THE NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND CONDITIONS. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME CU WITH BASES AROUND 3
KFT ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING BY AND AFTER 23.15Z. /10

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-65 TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
BEACHES. /22


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  30  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMOB 222332 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION [23.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...BULK OF CONVECTION
IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF A
POPUP SHRA/TSRA IN THE NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND CONDITIONS. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME CU WITH BASES AROUND 3
KFT ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING BY AND AFTER 23.15Z. /10

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-65 TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
BEACHES. /22


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  30  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMOB 222332 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION [23.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...BULK OF CONVECTION
IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF A
POPUP SHRA/TSRA IN THE NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND CONDITIONS. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME CU WITH BASES AROUND 3
KFT ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING BY AND AFTER 23.15Z. /10

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-65 TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
BEACHES. /22


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  30  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMOB 222332 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION [23.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...BULK OF CONVECTION
IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF A
POPUP SHRA/TSRA IN THE NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND CONDITIONS. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME CU WITH BASES AROUND 3
KFT ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING BY AND AFTER 23.15Z. /10

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-65 TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
BEACHES. /22


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  30  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMOB 222105
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-65 TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
BEACHES. /22


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

&&

.AVIATION [22.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL IMPACT
AREA TAF SITES WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS ADDED FROM 18Z TO
21Z...AND FROM 21Z TO 24Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH
BY LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  30  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 222105
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-65 TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
BEACHES. /22


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

&&

.AVIATION [22.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL IMPACT
AREA TAF SITES WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS ADDED FROM 18Z TO
21Z...AND FROM 21Z TO 24Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH
BY LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  30  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 222105
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-65 TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
BEACHES. /22


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

&&

.AVIATION [22.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL IMPACT
AREA TAF SITES WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS ADDED FROM 18Z TO
21Z...AND FROM 21Z TO 24Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH
BY LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  30  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 222105
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-65 TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
BEACHES. /22


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

&&

.AVIATION [22.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL IMPACT
AREA TAF SITES WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS ADDED FROM 18Z TO
21Z...AND FROM 21Z TO 24Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH
BY LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  30  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 222027
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
327 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUFFICIENT
LIFT ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...SENDING SEVERAL IMPULSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COMING
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...WEAKER ONE...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LOOKING DRY THOUGH.

THE SECOND IMPULSE IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION GETTING EVEN THIS EARLY.
IT LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WHILE IT IS A WEEK
AWAY...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RIVAL THE ONE FROM LAST WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROFING
EAST WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW VCNTY SW AL/SE MS
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOIST INFLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TSRA WILL FORM IS
LOW SO WILL CARRY VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND FCSTS AS NECESSARY
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO GO DOWN OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z...AND WILL TREND FORECAST THAT WAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 15Z.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  88  71  86  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
ANNISTON    70  88  72  87  70 /  30  40  30  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  89  73  88  70 /  30  40  40  60  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
CALERA      71  89  72  88  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
AUBURN      70  88  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  90  72 /  40  30  20  60  40
TROY        70  91  71  89  71 /  40  20  20  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 222027
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
327 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUFFICIENT
LIFT ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...SENDING SEVERAL IMPULSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COMING
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...WEAKER ONE...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LOOKING DRY THOUGH.

THE SECOND IMPULSE IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION GETTING EVEN THIS EARLY.
IT LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WHILE IT IS A WEEK
AWAY...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RIVAL THE ONE FROM LAST WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROFING
EAST WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW VCNTY SW AL/SE MS
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOIST INFLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TSRA WILL FORM IS
LOW SO WILL CARRY VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND FCSTS AS NECESSARY
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO GO DOWN OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z...AND WILL TREND FORECAST THAT WAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 15Z.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  88  71  86  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
ANNISTON    70  88  72  87  70 /  30  40  30  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  89  73  88  70 /  30  40  40  60  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
CALERA      71  89  72  88  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
AUBURN      70  88  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  90  72 /  40  30  20  60  40
TROY        70  91  71  89  71 /  40  20  20  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 222027
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
327 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUFFICIENT
LIFT ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...SENDING SEVERAL IMPULSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COMING
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...WEAKER ONE...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LOOKING DRY THOUGH.

THE SECOND IMPULSE IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION GETTING EVEN THIS EARLY.
IT LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WHILE IT IS A WEEK
AWAY...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RIVAL THE ONE FROM LAST WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROFING
EAST WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW VCNTY SW AL/SE MS
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOIST INFLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TSRA WILL FORM IS
LOW SO WILL CARRY VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND FCSTS AS NECESSARY
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO GO DOWN OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z...AND WILL TREND FORECAST THAT WAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 15Z.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  88  71  86  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
ANNISTON    70  88  72  87  70 /  30  40  30  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  89  73  88  70 /  30  40  40  60  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
CALERA      71  89  72  88  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
AUBURN      70  88  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  90  72 /  40  30  20  60  40
TROY        70  91  71  89  71 /  40  20  20  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 222027
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
327 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUFFICIENT
LIFT ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...SENDING SEVERAL IMPULSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COMING
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...WEAKER ONE...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LOOKING DRY THOUGH.

THE SECOND IMPULSE IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION GETTING EVEN THIS EARLY.
IT LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WHILE IT IS A WEEK
AWAY...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RIVAL THE ONE FROM LAST WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROFING
EAST WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW VCNTY SW AL/SE MS
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOIST INFLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TSRA WILL FORM IS
LOW SO WILL CARRY VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND FCSTS AS NECESSARY
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO GO DOWN OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z...AND WILL TREND FORECAST THAT WAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 15Z.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  88  71  86  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
ANNISTON    70  88  72  87  70 /  30  40  30  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  89  73  88  70 /  30  40  40  60  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
CALERA      71  89  72  88  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
AUBURN      70  88  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  90  72 /  40  30  20  60  40
TROY        70  91  71  89  71 /  40  20  20  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221949
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
249 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY CAN BE
SEEN ON AREA RADARS PRIMARILY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH
OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SO FAR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN PREVALENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND RETARD SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL.

EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BEFORE THEY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE LOW NEAR MOBILE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS HARD TO DECHIPER FROM THE MODELS.
MODELS DO SEEM TO AGREE THAT A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE PUSHES
SOUTHEAST FROM MISSOURI AND INDIANA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN TODAY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE MODELS PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH OF CULLMAN...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT WEAKENS EVEN MORE. AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING KEEPING AN ISOLATED POP IN THE FORECAST
ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...TAKING OUT ISOLATED POP. THIS DRY TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS EVEN DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE STRONGER 850 MB (30 KTS) AND 500 MB (40 KTS)
WIND FIELDS AND DECENT CAPE VALUES. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN MS/AL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE WEST TODAY. THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
UPPER LOW (ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING) TO KICK OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN/EVENING. TIME SECTIONS WERE ALSO
SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY (BY MID
MRNG/AFTN). EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  90  71  86 /  20  40  40  60
SHOALS        69  92  70  87 /  20  40  50  60
VINEMONT      69  89  69  85 /  20  40  40  60
FAYETTEVILLE  68  89  69  83 /  20  40  60  30
ALBERTVILLE   69  87  69  85 /  20  40  40  60
FORT PAYNE    69  88  67  85 /  20  40  40  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 221837 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.AVIATION [22.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL IMPACT
AREA TAF SITES WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS ADDED FROM 18Z TO
21Z...AND FROM 21Z TO 24Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH
BY LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
DIURNAL PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT MARINE CONVECTION AND DAYTIME INLAND
CONVECTION CONTINUES. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH SUNRISE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY/MID
EVENING HOURS. A WEAK AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO SUPPLY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING...WHILE A BROAD UPPER LOW PRODUCES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH DIURNAL THERMAL
TRENDS...HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY INGREDIENTS PRODUCING THE RATHER WET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE BROAD UPPER
LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO RETROGRADE EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEING LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS TREND WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FCST AREA...WITH THE
MAIN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION BACK INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERALL
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT EVEN SO WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS NOTED...CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ALL
WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...AS A
RESULT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO RANGED FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S AREA WIDE.
12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE US/CA BORDER HELPS TO
WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA ATTM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...ALONG
WITH TILTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX WITH THE WESTWARD BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...HELPING TO RE-ESTABLISH A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE FA. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE UPPER RIDGE HAVING MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE ON POPS...WITH BELOW SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN. FOR
TEMPS...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH ENHANCED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH GETS DRAWN SOUTHWARD...OVER THE GULF
OF MEX...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY FROM AN UPPER HIGH PRESENT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPS RISE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH POPS DROPPING
BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH...DIGGING IT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...TO OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEX. THIS RETURNS TEMPS AND POPS TO SEASONAL LEVELS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ESE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
GETS PUSHED SOUTH...THEN REPLACED BY THE UPPER TROUGH.

AVIATION...
(22/12Z ISSUANCE)...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF
TERMINALS OVER NORTHERN GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONVECTION
RE-INITIATING NEAR TERMINALS AND OVER LAND AREAS BY AROUND MID TO
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PROB30 FOR ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 22.1500Z TODAY. WIND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST. 12/DS

MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH
ALONG THE GULF BEACHES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE DECREASING (BUT STILL
PERSISTENT). 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  71  91  72  92 /  40  20  20  20  40
PENSACOLA   89  74  90  75  90 /  50  20  20  20  40
DESTIN      85  78  89  78  89 /  40  20  20  20  40
EVERGREEN   89  70  92  70  94 /  50  30  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  90  69  93  70  93 /  50  30  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  70  93  70  93 /  50  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   90  67  93  71  93 /  50  20  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 221735 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS HOUR...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  WE ARE NOW ON THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROVIDING A DECENT GULF
MOISTURE FLUX NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.  A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP THINGS CONVECTIVE...AND THE COVERAGE
MAY END UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT AND LOWER TEMPS JUST A
BIT DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW VCNTY SW AL/SE MS
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOIST INFLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TSRA WILL FORM IS
LOW SO WILL CARRY VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND FCSTS AS NECESSARY
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO GO DOWN OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z...AND WILL TREND FORECAST THAT WAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 15Z.

41

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KBMX 221735 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS HOUR...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  WE ARE NOW ON THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROVIDING A DECENT GULF
MOISTURE FLUX NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.  A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP THINGS CONVECTIVE...AND THE COVERAGE
MAY END UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT AND LOWER TEMPS JUST A
BIT DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW VCNTY SW AL/SE MS
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOIST INFLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TSRA WILL FORM IS
LOW SO WILL CARRY VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND FCSTS AS NECESSARY
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO GO DOWN OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z...AND WILL TREND FORECAST THAT WAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 15Z.

41

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KHUN 221703
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1203 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1004 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
A SLOW MOVING WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN MS/AL WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ALONG WITH ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SCT
SHRA/TSRA TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SVR WX TODAY DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS
ACROSS THE REGION. BUT WITH PW`S OVER 1.5 INCHES...COULD HAVE A FEW
STORMS DUMPING SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE THE
FCST LOOKS ON TRACK...THUS NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN MS/AL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE WEST TODAY. THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
UPPER LOW (ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING) TO KICK OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN/EVENING. TIME SECTIONS WERE ALSO
SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY (BY MID
MRNG/AFTN). EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221703
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1203 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1004 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
A SLOW MOVING WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN MS/AL WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ALONG WITH ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SCT
SHRA/TSRA TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SVR WX TODAY DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS
ACROSS THE REGION. BUT WITH PW`S OVER 1.5 INCHES...COULD HAVE A FEW
STORMS DUMPING SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE THE
FCST LOOKS ON TRACK...THUS NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN MS/AL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE WEST TODAY. THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
UPPER LOW (ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING) TO KICK OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN/EVENING. TIME SECTIONS WERE ALSO
SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY (BY MID
MRNG/AFTN). EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221613
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS HOUR...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  WE ARE NOW ON THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROVIDING A DECENT GULF
MOISTURE FLUX NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.  A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP THINGS CONVECTIVE...AND THE COVERAGE
MAY END UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT AND LOWER TEMPS JUST A
BIT DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. IFR CIGS ARE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14 TO 15Z. SLOW INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RIGHT NOW ONLY SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS LEADING ECHOES. THE BETTER FOCUS IS IN GEORGIA GETTING
INTO EASTERN ALABAMA RIGHT NOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS LINE OF RAIN
OUT AND ENTERED INTO THE TAFS BASED ON LOCAL TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS
IN HOUSE. MODELS REALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
SO WENT A LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
PERSISTENCE YET WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER LOW CEILING TYPE OF
NIGHT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 221613
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS HOUR...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  WE ARE NOW ON THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROVIDING A DECENT GULF
MOISTURE FLUX NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.  A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP THINGS CONVECTIVE...AND THE COVERAGE
MAY END UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT AND LOWER TEMPS JUST A
BIT DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. IFR CIGS ARE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14 TO 15Z. SLOW INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RIGHT NOW ONLY SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS LEADING ECHOES. THE BETTER FOCUS IS IN GEORGIA GETTING
INTO EASTERN ALABAMA RIGHT NOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS LINE OF RAIN
OUT AND ENTERED INTO THE TAFS BASED ON LOCAL TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS
IN HOUSE. MODELS REALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
SO WENT A LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
PERSISTENCE YET WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER LOW CEILING TYPE OF
NIGHT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 221613
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS HOUR...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  WE ARE NOW ON THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROVIDING A DECENT GULF
MOISTURE FLUX NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.  A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP THINGS CONVECTIVE...AND THE COVERAGE
MAY END UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT AND LOWER TEMPS JUST A
BIT DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. IFR CIGS ARE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14 TO 15Z. SLOW INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RIGHT NOW ONLY SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS LEADING ECHOES. THE BETTER FOCUS IS IN GEORGIA GETTING
INTO EASTERN ALABAMA RIGHT NOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS LINE OF RAIN
OUT AND ENTERED INTO THE TAFS BASED ON LOCAL TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS
IN HOUSE. MODELS REALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
SO WENT A LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
PERSISTENCE YET WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER LOW CEILING TYPE OF
NIGHT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 221613
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS HOUR...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  WE ARE NOW ON THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROVIDING A DECENT GULF
MOISTURE FLUX NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.  A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP THINGS CONVECTIVE...AND THE COVERAGE
MAY END UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT AND LOWER TEMPS JUST A
BIT DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. IFR CIGS ARE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14 TO 15Z. SLOW INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RIGHT NOW ONLY SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS LEADING ECHOES. THE BETTER FOCUS IS IN GEORGIA GETTING
INTO EASTERN ALABAMA RIGHT NOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS LINE OF RAIN
OUT AND ENTERED INTO THE TAFS BASED ON LOCAL TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS
IN HOUSE. MODELS REALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
SO WENT A LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
PERSISTENCE YET WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER LOW CEILING TYPE OF
NIGHT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KHUN 221504
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1004 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN MS/AL WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ALONG WITH ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SCT
SHRA/TSRA TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SVR WX TODAY DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS
ACROSS THE REGION. BUT WITH PW`S OVER 1.5 INCHES...COULD HAVE A FEW
STORMS DUMPING SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE THE
FCST LOOKS ON TRACK...THUS NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT
SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

JMS/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 546 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA/WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND A WEAK PERIPHERAL VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN GEORGIA CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE ATLANTIC SUB TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS TODAY...FORCING THE
UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WEAKENING 500-MB
VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTERACT WITH RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS OF 1.8-2 INCHES/ TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BASED ON EXPECTATIONS THAT THE
REMNANTS OF THE WEAK/SHEARING 500-MB WAVE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE
USED FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMIC
PROPERTIES OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SINCE YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BECOMING INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT WITH LITTLE
FORCING FOR UVM WILL KEEP MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON POPS IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE. PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH SPREADS SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION FROM THE OZARKS INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z THURSDAY. A SEPARATE AND MORE ORGANIZED
ROUND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AS THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER AWAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS...WHICH MAY
ALLOW SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA JUST
BEFORE 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY REGION-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING... AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TO
20-30 KNOTS. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW AT
THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z THURSDAY...WITH STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LIMITING REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.

AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING TO BE MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER...BASED ON TRENDS IN RAW MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
FROM THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S.
FORTUNATELY...A PUSH OF DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY ON THE LOW SIDE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
ONCE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM COVERAGE WILL PEAK
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221504
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1004 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN MS/AL WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ALONG WITH ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SCT
SHRA/TSRA TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SVR WX TODAY DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS
ACROSS THE REGION. BUT WITH PW`S OVER 1.5 INCHES...COULD HAVE A FEW
STORMS DUMPING SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE THE
FCST LOOKS ON TRACK...THUS NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT
SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

JMS/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 546 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA/WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND A WEAK PERIPHERAL VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN GEORGIA CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE ATLANTIC SUB TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS TODAY...FORCING THE
UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WEAKENING 500-MB
VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTERACT WITH RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
/PWATS OF 1.8-2 INCHES/ TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BASED ON EXPECTATIONS THAT THE
REMNANTS OF THE WEAK/SHEARING 500-MB WAVE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE
USED FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMIC
PROPERTIES OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SINCE YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BECOMING INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT WITH LITTLE
FORCING FOR UVM WILL KEEP MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON POPS IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE. PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH SPREADS SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION FROM THE OZARKS INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z THURSDAY. A SEPARATE AND MORE ORGANIZED
ROUND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AS THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER AWAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS...WHICH MAY
ALLOW SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA JUST
BEFORE 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY REGION-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING... AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TO
20-30 KNOTS. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW AT
THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z THURSDAY...WITH STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LIMITING REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.

AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING TO BE MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER...BASED ON TRENDS IN RAW MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
FROM THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S.
FORTUNATELY...A PUSH OF DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY ON THE LOW SIDE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
ONCE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM COVERAGE WILL PEAK
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS WE REACH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON. STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND CURRENTLY...SO SOME
RAIN POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY (LEANING TOWARDS THURSDAY) AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE WEST AND A NICE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS CARVED OUT. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TIMING...WILL ONLY
CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT THOSE WILL PROBABLY BE BUMPED UP AT
SOME POINT. THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY PUSH COMPLETELY
THROUGH...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BUT DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGING
IN THE WEST WILL TEMPORARILY EXTEND TOWARDS OUR DIRECTION AND WARM
THINGS UP A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH A VERY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH TO PUSH A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...MOST LIKELY FELT BY THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. IFR CIGS ARE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14 TO 15Z. SLOW INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RIGHT NOW ONLY SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS LEADING ECHOES. THE BETTER FOCUS IS IN GEORGIA GETTING
INTO EASTERN ALABAMA RIGHT NOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS LINE OF RAIN
OUT AND ENTERED INTO THE TAFS BASED ON LOCAL TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS
IN HOUSE. MODELS REALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
SO WENT A LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
PERSISTENCE YET WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER LOW CEILING TYPE OF
NIGHT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 221146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS WE REACH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON. STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND CURRENTLY...SO SOME
RAIN POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY (LEANING TOWARDS THURSDAY) AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE WEST AND A NICE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS CARVED OUT. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TIMING...WILL ONLY
CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT THOSE WILL PROBABLY BE BUMPED UP AT
SOME POINT. THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY PUSH COMPLETELY
THROUGH...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BUT DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGING
IN THE WEST WILL TEMPORARILY EXTEND TOWARDS OUR DIRECTION AND WARM
THINGS UP A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH A VERY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH TO PUSH A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...MOST LIKELY FELT BY THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. IFR CIGS ARE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14 TO 15Z. SLOW INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RIGHT NOW ONLY SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS LEADING ECHOES. THE BETTER FOCUS IS IN GEORGIA GETTING
INTO EASTERN ALABAMA RIGHT NOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS LINE OF RAIN
OUT AND ENTERED INTO THE TAFS BASED ON LOCAL TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS
IN HOUSE. MODELS REALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
SO WENT A LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
PERSISTENCE YET WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER LOW CEILING TYPE OF
NIGHT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 221146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS WE REACH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON. STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND CURRENTLY...SO SOME
RAIN POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY (LEANING TOWARDS THURSDAY) AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE WEST AND A NICE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS CARVED OUT. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TIMING...WILL ONLY
CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT THOSE WILL PROBABLY BE BUMPED UP AT
SOME POINT. THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY PUSH COMPLETELY
THROUGH...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BUT DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGING
IN THE WEST WILL TEMPORARILY EXTEND TOWARDS OUR DIRECTION AND WARM
THINGS UP A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH A VERY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH TO PUSH A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...MOST LIKELY FELT BY THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. IFR CIGS ARE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14 TO 15Z. SLOW INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RIGHT NOW ONLY SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS LEADING ECHOES. THE BETTER FOCUS IS IN GEORGIA GETTING
INTO EASTERN ALABAMA RIGHT NOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS LINE OF RAIN
OUT AND ENTERED INTO THE TAFS BASED ON LOCAL TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS
IN HOUSE. MODELS REALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
SO WENT A LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
PERSISTENCE YET WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER LOW CEILING TYPE OF
NIGHT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 221146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS WE REACH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON. STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND CURRENTLY...SO SOME
RAIN POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY (LEANING TOWARDS THURSDAY) AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE WEST AND A NICE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS CARVED OUT. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TIMING...WILL ONLY
CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT THOSE WILL PROBABLY BE BUMPED UP AT
SOME POINT. THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY PUSH COMPLETELY
THROUGH...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BUT DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGING
IN THE WEST WILL TEMPORARILY EXTEND TOWARDS OUR DIRECTION AND WARM
THINGS UP A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH A VERY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH TO PUSH A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...MOST LIKELY FELT BY THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. IFR CIGS ARE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14 TO 15Z. SLOW INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RIGHT NOW ONLY SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS LEADING ECHOES. THE BETTER FOCUS IS IN GEORGIA GETTING
INTO EASTERN ALABAMA RIGHT NOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS LINE OF RAIN
OUT AND ENTERED INTO THE TAFS BASED ON LOCAL TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS
IN HOUSE. MODELS REALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
SO WENT A LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
PERSISTENCE YET WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER LOW CEILING TYPE OF
NIGHT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 221144
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
644 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 546 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA/WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND A WEAK PERIPHERAL VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN GEORGIA CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE ATLANTIC SUNTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE ATLANIC
WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS TODAY...FORCING THE UPPER LOW
TO RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WEAKENING 500-MB VORT MAX
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTERACT WITH RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS
OF 1.8-2 INCHES/ TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BASED ON EXPECTATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF
THE WEAK/SHEARING 500-MB WAVE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE USED FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMIC PROPERTIES
OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SINCE YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BECOMING INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT WITH LITTLE
FORCING FOR UVM WILL KEEP MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON POPS IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE. PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH SPREADS SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION FROM THE OZARKS INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z THURSDAY. A SEPARATE AND MORE ORGANIZED
ROUND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AS THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER AWAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS...WHICH MAY
ALLOW SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA JUST
BEFORE 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY REGION-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING... AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TO
20-30 KNOTS. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW AT
THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z THURSDAY...WITH STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LIMITING REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.

AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING TO BE MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER...BASED ON TRENDS IN RAW MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
FROM THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S.
FORTUNATELY...A PUSH OF DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY ON THE LOW SIDE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
ONCE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM COVERAGE WILL PEAK
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT
SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

JMS/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221144
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
644 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 546 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA/WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND A WEAK PERIPHERAL VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN GEORGIA CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE ATLANTIC SUNTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE ATLANIC
WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS TODAY...FORCING THE UPPER LOW
TO RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WEAKENING 500-MB VORT MAX
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTERACT WITH RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS
OF 1.8-2 INCHES/ TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BASED ON EXPECTATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF
THE WEAK/SHEARING 500-MB WAVE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE USED FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMIC PROPERTIES
OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SINCE YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BECOMING INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT WITH LITTLE
FORCING FOR UVM WILL KEEP MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON POPS IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE. PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH SPREADS SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION FROM THE OZARKS INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z THURSDAY. A SEPARATE AND MORE ORGANIZED
ROUND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AS THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER AWAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS...WHICH MAY
ALLOW SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA JUST
BEFORE 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY REGION-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING... AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TO
20-30 KNOTS. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW AT
THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z THURSDAY...WITH STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LIMITING REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.

AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING TO BE MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER...BASED ON TRENDS IN RAW MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
FROM THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S.
FORTUNATELY...A PUSH OF DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY ON THE LOW SIDE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
ONCE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM COVERAGE WILL PEAK
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT
SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

JMS/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221144
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
644 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 546 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA/WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND A WEAK PERIPHERAL VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN GEORGIA CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE ATLANTIC SUNTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE ATLANIC
WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS TODAY...FORCING THE UPPER LOW
TO RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WEAKENING 500-MB VORT MAX
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTERACT WITH RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS
OF 1.8-2 INCHES/ TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BASED ON EXPECTATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF
THE WEAK/SHEARING 500-MB WAVE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE USED FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMIC PROPERTIES
OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SINCE YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BECOMING INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT WITH LITTLE
FORCING FOR UVM WILL KEEP MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON POPS IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE. PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH SPREADS SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION FROM THE OZARKS INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z THURSDAY. A SEPARATE AND MORE ORGANIZED
ROUND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AS THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER AWAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS...WHICH MAY
ALLOW SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA JUST
BEFORE 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY REGION-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING... AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TO
20-30 KNOTS. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW AT
THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z THURSDAY...WITH STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LIMITING REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.

AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING TO BE MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER...BASED ON TRENDS IN RAW MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
FROM THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S.
FORTUNATELY...A PUSH OF DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY ON THE LOW SIDE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
ONCE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM COVERAGE WILL PEAK
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT
SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

JMS/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221144
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
644 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 546 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA/WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND A WEAK PERIPHERAL VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN GEORGIA CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE ATLANTIC SUNTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE ATLANIC
WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS TODAY...FORCING THE UPPER LOW
TO RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WEAKENING 500-MB VORT MAX
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTERACT WITH RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS
OF 1.8-2 INCHES/ TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BASED ON EXPECTATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF
THE WEAK/SHEARING 500-MB WAVE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE USED FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMIC PROPERTIES
OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SINCE YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BECOMING INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT WITH LITTLE
FORCING FOR UVM WILL KEEP MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON POPS IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE. PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH SPREADS SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION FROM THE OZARKS INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z THURSDAY. A SEPARATE AND MORE ORGANIZED
ROUND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AS THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER AWAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS...WHICH MAY
ALLOW SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA JUST
BEFORE 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY REGION-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING... AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TO
20-30 KNOTS. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW AT
THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z THURSDAY...WITH STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LIMITING REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.

AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING TO BE MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER...BASED ON TRENDS IN RAW MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
FROM THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S.
FORTUNATELY...A PUSH OF DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY ON THE LOW SIDE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
ONCE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM COVERAGE WILL PEAK
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT
SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

JMS/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221046
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
546 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA/WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND A WEAK PERIPHERAL VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN GEORGIA CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE ATLANTIC SUNTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE ATLANIC
WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS TODAY...FORCING THE UPPER LOW
TO RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WEAKENING 500-MB VORT MAX
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTERACT WITH RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS
OF 1.8-2 INCHES/ TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BASED ON EXPECTATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF
THE WEAK/SHEARING 500-MB WAVE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE USED FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMIC PROPERTIES
OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SINCE YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BECOMING INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT WITH LITTLE
FORCING FOR UVM WILL KEEP MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON POPS IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE. PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH SPREADS SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION FROM THE OZARKS INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z THURSDAY. A SEPARATE AND MORE ORGANIZED
ROUND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AS THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER AWAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS...WHICH MAY
ALLOW SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA JUST
BEFORE 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY REGION-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING... AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TO
20-30 KNOTS. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW AT
THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z THURSDAY...WITH STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LIMITING REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.

AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING TO BE MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER...BASED ON TRENDS IN RAW MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
FROM THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S.
FORTUNATELY...A PUSH OF DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY ON THE LOW SIDE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
ONCE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM COVERAGE WILL PEAK
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KHSV OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY
BY TUESDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07/JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    88  70  90  71 /  40  30  30  60
SHOALS        89  69  92  70 /  40  30  40  60
VINEMONT      86  69  89  69 /  40  30  30  60
FAYETTEVILLE  85  68  89  69 /  40  30  50  60
ALBERTVILLE   84  69  87  69 /  40  30  30  60
FORT PAYNE    85  69  88  67 /  40  30  30  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 220935
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
DIURNAL PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT MARINE CONVECTION AND DAYTIME INLAND
CONVECTION CONTINUES. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH SUNRISE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY/MID
EVENING HOURS. A WEAK AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO SUPPLY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING...WHILE A BROAD UPPER LOW PRODUCES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH DIURNAL THERMAL
TRENDS...HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY INGREDIENTS PRODUCING THE RATHER WET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE BROAD UPPER
LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO RETROGRADE EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEING LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS TREND WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FCST AREA...WITH THE
MAIN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION BACK INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERALL
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT EVEN SO WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS NOTED...CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ALL
WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...AS A
RESULT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO RANGED FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S AREA WIDE.
12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE US/CA BORDER HELPS TO
WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA ATTM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...ALONG
WITH TILTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX WITH THE WESTWARD BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...HELPING TO RE-ESTABLISH A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE FA. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE UPPER RIDGE HAVING MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE ON POPS...WITH BELOW SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN. FOR
TEMPS...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH ENHANCED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH GETS DRAWN SOUTHWARD...OVER THE GULF
OF MEX...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY FROM AN UPPER HIGH PRESENT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPS RISE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH POPS DROPPING
BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH...DIGGING IT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...TO OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEX. THIS RETURNS TEMPS AND POPS TO SEASONAL LEVELS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ESE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
GETS PUSHED SOUTH...THEN REPLACED BY THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
(22/12Z ISSUANCE)...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF
TERMINALS OVER NORTHERN GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONVECTION
RE-INITIATING NEAR TERMINALS AND OVER LAND AREAS BY AROUND MID TO
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PROB30 FOR ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 22.1500Z TODAY. WIND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH
ALONG THE GULF BEACHES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE DECREASING (BUT STILL
PERSISTENT). 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  71  91  72  90 /  40  20  20  20  40
PENSACOLA   89  74  90  74  90 /  50  20  20  20  30
DESTIN      85  78  89  76  87 /  40  20  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   89  70  92  70  92 /  50  30  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  90  69  93  70  91 /  50  30  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  70  93  70  93 /  50  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   90  67  93  71  92 /  50  20  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16






000
FXUS64 KMOB 220935
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
DIURNAL PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT MARINE CONVECTION AND DAYTIME INLAND
CONVECTION CONTINUES. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH SUNRISE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY/MID
EVENING HOURS. A WEAK AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO SUPPLY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING...WHILE A BROAD UPPER LOW PRODUCES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH DIURNAL THERMAL
TRENDS...HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY INGREDIENTS PRODUCING THE RATHER WET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE BROAD UPPER
LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO RETROGRADE EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEING LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS TREND WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FCST AREA...WITH THE
MAIN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION BACK INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERALL
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT EVEN SO WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS NOTED...CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ALL
WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...AS A
RESULT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO RANGED FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S AREA WIDE.
12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE US/CA BORDER HELPS TO
WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA ATTM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...ALONG
WITH TILTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX WITH THE WESTWARD BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...HELPING TO RE-ESTABLISH A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE FA. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE UPPER RIDGE HAVING MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE ON POPS...WITH BELOW SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN. FOR
TEMPS...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH ENHANCED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH GETS DRAWN SOUTHWARD...OVER THE GULF
OF MEX...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY FROM AN UPPER HIGH PRESENT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPS RISE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH POPS DROPPING
BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH...DIGGING IT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...TO OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEX. THIS RETURNS TEMPS AND POPS TO SEASONAL LEVELS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ESE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
GETS PUSHED SOUTH...THEN REPLACED BY THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
(22/12Z ISSUANCE)...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF
TERMINALS OVER NORTHERN GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONVECTION
RE-INITIATING NEAR TERMINALS AND OVER LAND AREAS BY AROUND MID TO
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PROB30 FOR ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 22.1500Z TODAY. WIND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH
ALONG THE GULF BEACHES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE DECREASING (BUT STILL
PERSISTENT). 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  71  91  72  90 /  40  20  20  20  40
PENSACOLA   89  74  90  74  90 /  50  20  20  20  30
DESTIN      85  78  89  76  87 /  40  20  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   89  70  92  70  92 /  50  30  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  90  69  93  70  91 /  50  30  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  70  93  70  93 /  50  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   90  67  93  71  92 /  50  20  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16






000
FXUS64 KMOB 220935
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
DIURNAL PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT MARINE CONVECTION AND DAYTIME INLAND
CONVECTION CONTINUES. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH SUNRISE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY/MID
EVENING HOURS. A WEAK AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO SUPPLY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING...WHILE A BROAD UPPER LOW PRODUCES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH DIURNAL THERMAL
TRENDS...HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY INGREDIENTS PRODUCING THE RATHER WET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE BROAD UPPER
LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO RETROGRADE EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEING LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS TREND WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FCST AREA...WITH THE
MAIN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION BACK INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERALL
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT EVEN SO WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS NOTED...CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ALL
WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...AS A
RESULT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO RANGED FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S AREA WIDE.
12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE US/CA BORDER HELPS TO
WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA ATTM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...ALONG
WITH TILTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX WITH THE WESTWARD BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...HELPING TO RE-ESTABLISH A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE FA. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE UPPER RIDGE HAVING MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE ON POPS...WITH BELOW SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN. FOR
TEMPS...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH ENHANCED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH GETS DRAWN SOUTHWARD...OVER THE GULF
OF MEX...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY FROM AN UPPER HIGH PRESENT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPS RISE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH POPS DROPPING
BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH...DIGGING IT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...TO OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEX. THIS RETURNS TEMPS AND POPS TO SEASONAL LEVELS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ESE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
GETS PUSHED SOUTH...THEN REPLACED BY THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
(22/12Z ISSUANCE)...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF
TERMINALS OVER NORTHERN GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONVECTION
RE-INITIATING NEAR TERMINALS AND OVER LAND AREAS BY AROUND MID TO
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PROB30 FOR ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 22.1500Z TODAY. WIND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH
ALONG THE GULF BEACHES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE DECREASING (BUT STILL
PERSISTENT). 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  71  91  72  90 /  40  20  20  20  40
PENSACOLA   89  74  90  74  90 /  50  20  20  20  30
DESTIN      85  78  89  76  87 /  40  20  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   89  70  92  70  92 /  50  30  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  90  69  93  70  91 /  50  30  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  70  93  70  93 /  50  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   90  67  93  71  92 /  50  20  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16






000
FXUS64 KMOB 220935
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
DIURNAL PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT MARINE CONVECTION AND DAYTIME INLAND
CONVECTION CONTINUES. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH SUNRISE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY/MID
EVENING HOURS. A WEAK AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO SUPPLY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING...WHILE A BROAD UPPER LOW PRODUCES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH DIURNAL THERMAL
TRENDS...HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY INGREDIENTS PRODUCING THE RATHER WET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE BROAD UPPER
LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO RETROGRADE EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEING LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS TREND WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FCST AREA...WITH THE
MAIN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION BACK INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERALL
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT EVEN SO WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS NOTED...CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ALL
WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...AS A
RESULT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO RANGED FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S AREA WIDE.
12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE US/CA BORDER HELPS TO
WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA ATTM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...ALONG
WITH TILTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX WITH THE WESTWARD BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...HELPING TO RE-ESTABLISH A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE FA. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE UPPER RIDGE HAVING MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE ON POPS...WITH BELOW SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN. FOR
TEMPS...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH ENHANCED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH GETS DRAWN SOUTHWARD...OVER THE GULF
OF MEX...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY FROM AN UPPER HIGH PRESENT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPS RISE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH POPS DROPPING
BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH...DIGGING IT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...TO OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEX. THIS RETURNS TEMPS AND POPS TO SEASONAL LEVELS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ESE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
GETS PUSHED SOUTH...THEN REPLACED BY THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
(22/12Z ISSUANCE)...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF
TERMINALS OVER NORTHERN GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONVECTION
RE-INITIATING NEAR TERMINALS AND OVER LAND AREAS BY AROUND MID TO
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PROB30 FOR ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 22.1500Z TODAY. WIND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH
ALONG THE GULF BEACHES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE DECREASING (BUT STILL
PERSISTENT). 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  71  91  72  90 /  40  20  20  20  40
PENSACOLA   89  74  90  74  90 /  50  20  20  20  30
DESTIN      85  78  89  76  87 /  40  20  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   89  70  92  70  92 /  50  30  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  90  69  93  70  91 /  50  30  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  70  93  70  93 /  50  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   90  67  93  71  92 /  50  20  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16






000
FXUS64 KBMX 220807
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS WE REACH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON. STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND CURRENTLY...SO SOME
RAIN POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY (LEANING TOWARDS THURSDAY) AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE WEST AND A NICE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS CARVED OUT. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TIMING...WILL ONLY
CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT THOSE WILL PROBABLY BE BUMPED UP AT
SOME POINT. THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY PUSH COMPLETELY
THROUGH...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BUT DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGING
IN THE WEST WILL TEMPORARILY EXTEND TOWARDS OUR DIRECTION AND WARM
THINGS UP A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH A VERY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH TO PUSH A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...MOST LIKELY FELT BY THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BROAD UPPER LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA WILL BRING SCT
SHWRS TO EAST ALABAMA BEFORE 12Z. LCL IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY FORMED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND EAST
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE IFR CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO KMGM AND KTOI... ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THE IFR CIGS COULD REACH FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20
CORRIDOR. SHWRS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AFTER 12Z AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO MISSISSIPPI AND
PLACES ALABAMA ON THE MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE SIDE OF UPPER
SYSTEM. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SHWRS...BUT ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  69  88  71  86 /  50  20  30  30  50
ANNISTON    87  70  89  72  87 /  50  20  30  20  50
BIRMINGHAM  87  72  89  74  88 /  50  20  40  20  50
TUSCALOOSA  89  71  90  73  89 /  50  20  30  20  50
CALERA      86  70  89  73  88 /  50  20  30  20  50
AUBURN      86  71  88  72  88 /  50  20  20  20  40
MONTGOMERY  89  71  91  73  91 /  50  20  20  20  40
TROY        88  70  91  71  89 /  50  20  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 220807
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS WE REACH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON. STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND CURRENTLY...SO SOME
RAIN POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY (LEANING TOWARDS THURSDAY) AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE WEST AND A NICE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS CARVED OUT. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TIMING...WILL ONLY
CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT THOSE WILL PROBABLY BE BUMPED UP AT
SOME POINT. THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY PUSH COMPLETELY
THROUGH...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BUT DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGING
IN THE WEST WILL TEMPORARILY EXTEND TOWARDS OUR DIRECTION AND WARM
THINGS UP A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH A VERY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH TO PUSH A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...MOST LIKELY FELT BY THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BROAD UPPER LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA WILL BRING SCT
SHWRS TO EAST ALABAMA BEFORE 12Z. LCL IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY FORMED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND EAST
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE IFR CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO KMGM AND KTOI... ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THE IFR CIGS COULD REACH FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20
CORRIDOR. SHWRS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AFTER 12Z AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO MISSISSIPPI AND
PLACES ALABAMA ON THE MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE SIDE OF UPPER
SYSTEM. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SHWRS...BUT ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  69  88  71  86 /  50  20  30  30  50
ANNISTON    87  70  89  72  87 /  50  20  30  20  50
BIRMINGHAM  87  72  89  74  88 /  50  20  40  20  50
TUSCALOOSA  89  71  90  73  89 /  50  20  30  20  50
CALERA      86  70  89  73  88 /  50  20  30  20  50
AUBURN      86  71  88  72  88 /  50  20  20  20  40
MONTGOMERY  89  71  91  73  91 /  50  20  20  20  40
TROY        88  70  91  71  89 /  50  20  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 220542 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AND TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 842 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SRN GA/AL WILL PROVIDE SCT/BKN CLOUD
COVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF PCPN WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE EAST OF I65. THE REST OF THE FCST
PARAMETERS LOOKS GOOD.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KHSV OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY
BY TUESDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07/JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 220542 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AND TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 842 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SRN GA/AL WILL PROVIDE SCT/BKN CLOUD
COVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF PCPN WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE EAST OF I65. THE REST OF THE FCST
PARAMETERS LOOKS GOOD.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KHSV OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY
BY TUESDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07/JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 220542 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AND TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 842 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SRN GA/AL WILL PROVIDE SCT/BKN CLOUD
COVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF PCPN WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE EAST OF I65. THE REST OF THE FCST
PARAMETERS LOOKS GOOD.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KHSV OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY
BY TUESDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07/JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 220542 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AND TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 842 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SRN GA/AL WILL PROVIDE SCT/BKN CLOUD
COVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF PCPN WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE EAST OF I65. THE REST OF THE FCST
PARAMETERS LOOKS GOOD.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KHSV OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY
BY TUESDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07/JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 220455
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN REGION
OF OUR AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW...SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE RE-INITIATING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING. HENCE WE
BROUGHT IN A PROB30 TO ALL TERMINALS AFTER 22.1500Z. WIND LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS ROTATING CONVECTIVE
CELLS AROUND A CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE
VICINITY OF MONROE COUNTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT THE
CONVECTION HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF COMPLETE DISAPPEARANCE...BUT HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. WE HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK POPS GEOGRAPHICALLY
COMMENSURATE WITH WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR. /77

MARINE UPDATE...CONVECTION DRIFTING TOWARD THE GULF WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO PREPARE THE COASTAL WATERS UPDATE
FORECAST FOR THAT PROSPECT. /77

COASTAL REGIONS AND BEACH UPDATE...AND ADDENDA TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION OF 722 PM...REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS OBSERVED
ALONG GULF BEACHES HAS NECESSITATED AN EXTENSION OF OUR ASSESSMENT OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. THIS ASSESSMENT IS EXTENDED UNTIL 7 AM
TUESDAY. MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  40  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  40  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 220455
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN REGION
OF OUR AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW...SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE RE-INITIATING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING. HENCE WE
BROUGHT IN A PROB30 TO ALL TERMINALS AFTER 22.1500Z. WIND LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS ROTATING CONVECTIVE
CELLS AROUND A CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE
VICINITY OF MONROE COUNTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT THE
CONVECTION HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF COMPLETE DISAPPEARANCE...BUT HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. WE HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK POPS GEOGRAPHICALLY
COMMENSURATE WITH WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR. /77

MARINE UPDATE...CONVECTION DRIFTING TOWARD THE GULF WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO PREPARE THE COASTAL WATERS UPDATE
FORECAST FOR THAT PROSPECT. /77

COASTAL REGIONS AND BEACH UPDATE...AND ADDENDA TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION OF 722 PM...REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS OBSERVED
ALONG GULF BEACHES HAS NECESSITATED AN EXTENSION OF OUR ASSESSMENT OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. THIS ASSESSMENT IS EXTENDED UNTIL 7 AM
TUESDAY. MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  40  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  40  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 220444
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MANY OF THE PREVIOUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES VIEWED ON RADAR ARE QUICKLY PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH GEORGIA
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE BOUNDARIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THEY COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONCE THEY ENTER INTO EASTERN ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AND MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BROAD UPPER LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA WILL BRING SCT
SHWRS TO EAST ALABAMA BEFORE 12Z. LCL IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY FORMED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND EAST
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE IFR CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO KMGM AND KTOI... ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THE IFR CIGS COULD REACH FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20
CORRIDOR. SHWRS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AFTER 12Z AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO MISSISSIPPI AND
PLACES ALABAMA ON THE MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE SIDE OF UPPER
SYSTEM. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SHWRS...BUT ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  86  69  88  70 /  20  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    72  87  69  89  71 /  30  50  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  71  90  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  70  91  72 /  20  50  20  30  20
CALERA      73  86  70  89  72 /  20  50  20  30  20
AUBURN      71  86  71  89  72 /  50  50  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  72  89  71  92  73 /  30  50  20  20  20
TROY        71  88  70  91  71 /  30  50  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 220444
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MANY OF THE PREVIOUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES VIEWED ON RADAR ARE QUICKLY PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH GEORGIA
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE BOUNDARIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THEY COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONCE THEY ENTER INTO EASTERN ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AND MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BROAD UPPER LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA WILL BRING SCT
SHWRS TO EAST ALABAMA BEFORE 12Z. LCL IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY FORMED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND EAST
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE IFR CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO KMGM AND KTOI... ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THE IFR CIGS COULD REACH FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20
CORRIDOR. SHWRS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AFTER 12Z AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO MISSISSIPPI AND
PLACES ALABAMA ON THE MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE SIDE OF UPPER
SYSTEM. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SHWRS...BUT ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  86  69  88  70 /  20  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    72  87  69  89  71 /  30  50  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  71  90  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  70  91  72 /  20  50  20  30  20
CALERA      73  86  70  89  72 /  20  50  20  30  20
AUBURN      71  86  71  89  72 /  50  50  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  72  89  71  92  73 /  30  50  20  20  20
TROY        71  88  70  91  71 /  30  50  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 220303
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MANY OF THE PREVIOUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES VIEWED ON RADAR ARE QUICKLY PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH GEORGIA
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE BOUNDARIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THEY COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONCE THEY ENTER INTO EASTERN ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AND MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BROAD UPPER LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...TRACKING
WESTWARD. SCT SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WERE LOCATED NEAR THE UPPER
LOW CENTER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTM AFFECTING ANY SITE IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE KTCL...BUT EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE
TAF SITE VCNTY BY 01Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PCPN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS ACROSS SE ALABAMA BY 12Z...BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHWRS WILL BE AFTER 15Z. WITH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AFTER 15Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
PCPN AND MVFR CIGS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  86  69  88  70 /  20  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    72  87  69  89  71 /  20  50  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  71  90  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  70  91  72 /  20  50  20  30  20
CALERA      73  86  70  89  72 /  20  50  20  30  20
AUBURN      71  86  71  89  72 /  20  50  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  72  89  71  92  73 /  20  50  20  20  20
TROY        71  88  70  91  71 /  20  50  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 220224
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
924 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS ROTATING CONVECTIVE
CELLS AROUND A CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE
VICINITY OF MONROE COUNTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT THE
CONVECTION HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF COMPLETE DISAPPEARANCE...BUT HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. WE HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK POPS GEOGRAPHICALLY
COMMENSURATE WITH WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR. /77

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...CONVECTION DRIFTING TOWARD THE GULF WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO PREPARE THE COASTAL WATERS UPDATE FORECAST
FOR THAT PROSPECT. /77

&&

.COASTAL REGIONS AND BEACH UPDATE...AND ADDENDA TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION OF 722 PM...REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS OBSERVED
ALONG GULF BEACHES HAS NECESSITATED AN EXTENSION OF OUR ASSESSMENT OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. THIS ASSESSMENT IS EXTENDED UNTIL 7 AM
TUESDAY. MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 220224
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
924 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS ROTATING CONVECTIVE
CELLS AROUND A CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE
VICINITY OF MONROE COUNTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT THE
CONVECTION HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF COMPLETE DISAPPEARANCE...BUT HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. WE HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK POPS GEOGRAPHICALLY
COMMENSURATE WITH WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR. /77

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...CONVECTION DRIFTING TOWARD THE GULF WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO PREPARE THE COASTAL WATERS UPDATE FORECAST
FOR THAT PROSPECT. /77

&&

.COASTAL REGIONS AND BEACH UPDATE...AND ADDENDA TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION OF 722 PM...REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS OBSERVED
ALONG GULF BEACHES HAS NECESSITATED AN EXTENSION OF OUR ASSESSMENT OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. THIS ASSESSMENT IS EXTENDED UNTIL 7 AM
TUESDAY. MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 220142
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
842 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA...OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD
ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SRN GA/AL WILL PROVIDE SCT/BKN CLOUD
COVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF PCPN WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE EAST OF I65. THE REST OF THE FCST
PARAMETERS LOOKS GOOD.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE GA/AL COAST WAS PUMPING
MOISTURE INTO NERN AL ATTM. THIS UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT/TUESDAY...KEEPING MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING ARND 15Z TUESDAY
MRNG. A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL BE TUESDAY AFTN DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 337 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

MODELS FORECAST A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO
SLIDE WEST OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MOBILE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH WEST TOWARDS THE REGION AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALREADY IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY OVER THE AREA. AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH ONLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED EARLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF INTERSTATE
65...WHERE 40 TO 60 POP LOOKS REASONABLE. THE LIKELY POP SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH LITTLE WIND ENERGY AND
DRY AIR ALOFT PROGGED BY MODELS...EVEN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY. HOWEVER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CONVERGENCE AREA CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA TO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FURTHER WEST...BUT PORTIONS OF IT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...40 TO 50 PERCENT. AGAIN THREATS WILL
REMAIN THE SAME WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
FOR SOME TIME BY MOST MODELS AND HAVE HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF FORCING AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER COVERAGE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. WIND SHEAR STILL LOOKS
WEAK...AND WITH LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT DO NOT SEE A SEVERE RISK WITH
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BIGGEST
THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED THROUGH THURSDAY...DUE TO
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS SHIFT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MORE EAST THAN
SOUTH...SO FRONT MAY WASH OUT ON TOP OF CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THEREFORE KEPT THE 20 POP IN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND KEPT HIGHER
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT STRONGER
AND WILL HAVE A BIT MORE WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MIGHT MATERIALIZE DURING THE PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE
IT IS SO FAR OUT..LEFT 30 POP FOR NOW AND LOWERED TEMPERATURE TREND
JUST A BIT.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 220142
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
842 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA...OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD
ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SRN GA/AL WILL PROVIDE SCT/BKN CLOUD
COVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF PCPN WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE EAST OF I65. THE REST OF THE FCST
PARAMETERS LOOKS GOOD.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE GA/AL COAST WAS PUMPING
MOISTURE INTO NERN AL ATTM. THIS UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT/TUESDAY...KEEPING MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING ARND 15Z TUESDAY
MRNG. A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL BE TUESDAY AFTN DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 337 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

MODELS FORECAST A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO
SLIDE WEST OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MOBILE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH WEST TOWARDS THE REGION AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALREADY IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY OVER THE AREA. AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH ONLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED EARLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF INTERSTATE
65...WHERE 40 TO 60 POP LOOKS REASONABLE. THE LIKELY POP SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH LITTLE WIND ENERGY AND
DRY AIR ALOFT PROGGED BY MODELS...EVEN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY. HOWEVER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CONVERGENCE AREA CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA TO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FURTHER WEST...BUT PORTIONS OF IT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...40 TO 50 PERCENT. AGAIN THREATS WILL
REMAIN THE SAME WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
FOR SOME TIME BY MOST MODELS AND HAVE HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF FORCING AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER COVERAGE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. WIND SHEAR STILL LOOKS
WEAK...AND WITH LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT DO NOT SEE A SEVERE RISK WITH
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BIGGEST
THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED THROUGH THURSDAY...DUE TO
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS SHIFT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MORE EAST THAN
SOUTH...SO FRONT MAY WASH OUT ON TOP OF CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THEREFORE KEPT THE 20 POP IN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND KEPT HIGHER
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT STRONGER
AND WILL HAVE A BIT MORE WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MIGHT MATERIALIZE DURING THE PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE
IT IS SO FAR OUT..LEFT 30 POP FOR NOW AND LOWERED TEMPERATURE TREND
JUST A BIT.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 220022 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
722 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 220022 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
722 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 212339
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

INTERESTING SUMMER CONTINUES. A DECENTLY STRONG JULY UPPER LEVEL
LOW...LEFTOVERS FROM THE LAST SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS ADDED ADDITIONAL FORCING BEYOND THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SUMMER CONVECTION...EVIDENCED BY THE NOCTURNAL
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SEEN LAST NIGHT...AND LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT. THIS LOW DOES ADD SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING THAT DRIVES UP
THE POPS...HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IT BRINGS KEEPS THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE DOWN A BIT BY NOT ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM DAYTIME
HEATING IN THE HIGHER POP REGIONS. IT ALSO HAS THE ATYPICAL STORM
MOTIONS...SLOW AND TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE COMING DAYS...AND
WITHOUT A KICKING OUT SYSTEM IN PLAY...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WASH
OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK SOMEWHERE NEAR HOUSTON. IN THE
MEANTIME...THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WE
MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER DEWPOINTS...NORTHWEST WIND...AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURE TREND. ALTHOUGH...IT IS LOOKING
NOTHING LIKE THE LAST ROUND!

FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE TWO SYSTEMS
WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP GULF MOISTURE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE SCALE WEAK FORCING. WOULD LIKE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM PLAYS OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE BITING TOO
HARD ON THE FORECAST...BUT WENT AHEAD AND BEGAN TO SHOW TRENDS
DOWNWARD BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE DEWPOINTS AND POPS IN
ANTICIPATION THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT THROUGH THE
AREA.

17/KLAWS


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BROAD UPPER LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...TRACKING
WESTWARD. SCT SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WERE LOCATED NEAR THE UPPER
LOW CENTER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTM AFFECTING ANY SITE IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE KTCL...BUT EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE
TAF SITE VCNTY BY 01Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PCPN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS ACROSS SE ALABAMA BY 12Z...BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHWRS WILL BE AFTER 15Z. WITH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AFTER 15Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
PCPN AND MVFR CIGS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  86  69  88  70 /  20  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  87  69  89  71 /  20  50  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  90  73 /  30  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  91  72 /  30  50  20  30  20
CALERA      71  86  70  89  72 /  30  50  20  30  20
AUBURN      70  86  71  89  72 /  20  50  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  92  73 /  20  50  20  20  20
TROY        70  88  70  91  71 /  20  50  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 212339
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

INTERESTING SUMMER CONTINUES. A DECENTLY STRONG JULY UPPER LEVEL
LOW...LEFTOVERS FROM THE LAST SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS ADDED ADDITIONAL FORCING BEYOND THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SUMMER CONVECTION...EVIDENCED BY THE NOCTURNAL
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SEEN LAST NIGHT...AND LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT. THIS LOW DOES ADD SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING THAT DRIVES UP
THE POPS...HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IT BRINGS KEEPS THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE DOWN A BIT BY NOT ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM DAYTIME
HEATING IN THE HIGHER POP REGIONS. IT ALSO HAS THE ATYPICAL STORM
MOTIONS...SLOW AND TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE COMING DAYS...AND
WITHOUT A KICKING OUT SYSTEM IN PLAY...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WASH
OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK SOMEWHERE NEAR HOUSTON. IN THE
MEANTIME...THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WE
MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER DEWPOINTS...NORTHWEST WIND...AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURE TREND. ALTHOUGH...IT IS LOOKING
NOTHING LIKE THE LAST ROUND!

FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE TWO SYSTEMS
WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP GULF MOISTURE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE SCALE WEAK FORCING. WOULD LIKE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM PLAYS OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE BITING TOO
HARD ON THE FORECAST...BUT WENT AHEAD AND BEGAN TO SHOW TRENDS
DOWNWARD BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE DEWPOINTS AND POPS IN
ANTICIPATION THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT THROUGH THE
AREA.

17/KLAWS


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BROAD UPPER LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...TRACKING
WESTWARD. SCT SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WERE LOCATED NEAR THE UPPER
LOW CENTER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTM AFFECTING ANY SITE IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE KTCL...BUT EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE
TAF SITE VCNTY BY 01Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PCPN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS ACROSS SE ALABAMA BY 12Z...BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHWRS WILL BE AFTER 15Z. WITH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AFTER 15Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
PCPN AND MVFR CIGS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  86  69  88  70 /  20  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  87  69  89  71 /  20  50  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  90  73 /  30  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  91  72 /  30  50  20  30  20
CALERA      71  86  70  89  72 /  30  50  20  30  20
AUBURN      70  86  71  89  72 /  20  50  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  92  73 /  20  50  20  20  20
TROY        70  88  70  91  71 /  20  50  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 212334 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA...AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. WIND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OCCUPIES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES)...WHILE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY REMAINS VERY
MOIST (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES). MEANWHILE...A
WEAK REFLECTION LOW AT THE SURFACE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTH ALABAMA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL
RAIN-FREE. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN ALABAMA TO PENSACOLA
FLORIDA AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWEST...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS LINE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST.
THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THE FAVORABLE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE POPS. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS IT MERGES WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MAINTAINING SCATTERED POPS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
CREATE AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
SCATTERED COVERAGES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT LINGERS
TO OUR NORTH AND DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

AVIATION [21.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KMOB AND KBFM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO TEMPO GROUP REQUIRED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL AT
KPNS...THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO
GROUP ADDED FROM 18Z TO 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. /22

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 212334 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA...AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. WIND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OCCUPIES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES)...WHILE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY REMAINS VERY
MOIST (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES). MEANWHILE...A
WEAK REFLECTION LOW AT THE SURFACE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTH ALABAMA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL
RAIN-FREE. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN ALABAMA TO PENSACOLA
FLORIDA AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWEST...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS LINE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST.
THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THE FAVORABLE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE POPS. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS IT MERGES WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MAINTAINING SCATTERED POPS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
CREATE AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
SCATTERED COVERAGES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT LINGERS
TO OUR NORTH AND DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

AVIATION [21.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KMOB AND KBFM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO TEMPO GROUP REQUIRED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL AT
KPNS...THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO
GROUP ADDED FROM 18Z TO 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. /22

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 212332
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
632 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 337 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

MODELS FORECAST A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO
SLIDE WEST OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MOBILE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH WEST TOWARDS THE REGION AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALREADY IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY OVER THE AREA. AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH ONLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED EARLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF INTERSTATE
65...WHERE 40 TO 60 POP LOOKS REASONABLE. THE LIKELY POP SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH LITTLE WIND ENERGY AND
DRY AIR ALOFT PROGGED BY MODELS...EVEN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY. HOWEVER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CONVERGENCE AREA CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA TO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FURTHER WEST...BUT PORTIONS OF IT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...40 TO 50 PERCENT. AGAIN THREATS WILL
REMAIN THE SAME WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
FOR SOME TIME BY MOST MODELS AND HAVE HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF FORCING AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER COVERAGE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. WIND SHEAR STILL LOOKS
WEAK...AND WITH LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT DO NOT SEE A SEVERE RISK WITH
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BIGGEST
THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED THROUGH THURSDAY...DUE TO
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS SHIFT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MORE EAST THAN
SOUTH...SO FRONT MAY WASH OUT ON TOP OF CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THEREFORE KEPT THE 20 POP IN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND KEPT HIGHER
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT STRONGER
AND WILL HAVE A BIT MORE WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MIGHT MATERIALIZE DURING THE PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE
IT IS SO FAR OUT..LEFT 30 POP FOR NOW AND LOWERED TEMPERATURE TREND
JUST A BIT.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE GA/AL COAST WAS PUMPING
MOISTURE INTO NERN AL ATTM. THIS UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT/TUESDAY...KEEPING MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING ARND 15Z TUESDAY
MRNG. A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL BE TUESDAY AFTN DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 212332
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
632 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 337 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

MODELS FORECAST A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO
SLIDE WEST OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MOBILE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH WEST TOWARDS THE REGION AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALREADY IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY OVER THE AREA. AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH ONLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED EARLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF INTERSTATE
65...WHERE 40 TO 60 POP LOOKS REASONABLE. THE LIKELY POP SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH LITTLE WIND ENERGY AND
DRY AIR ALOFT PROGGED BY MODELS...EVEN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY. HOWEVER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CONVERGENCE AREA CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA TO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FURTHER WEST...BUT PORTIONS OF IT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...40 TO 50 PERCENT. AGAIN THREATS WILL
REMAIN THE SAME WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
FOR SOME TIME BY MOST MODELS AND HAVE HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF FORCING AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER COVERAGE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. WIND SHEAR STILL LOOKS
WEAK...AND WITH LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT DO NOT SEE A SEVERE RISK WITH
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BIGGEST
THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED THROUGH THURSDAY...DUE TO
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS SHIFT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MORE EAST THAN
SOUTH...SO FRONT MAY WASH OUT ON TOP OF CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THEREFORE KEPT THE 20 POP IN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND KEPT HIGHER
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT STRONGER
AND WILL HAVE A BIT MORE WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MIGHT MATERIALIZE DURING THE PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE
IT IS SO FAR OUT..LEFT 30 POP FOR NOW AND LOWERED TEMPERATURE TREND
JUST A BIT.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE GA/AL COAST WAS PUMPING
MOISTURE INTO NERN AL ATTM. THIS UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT/TUESDAY...KEEPING MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING ARND 15Z TUESDAY
MRNG. A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL BE TUESDAY AFTN DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 212037
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
337 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

MODELS FORECAST A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO
SLIDE WEST OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MOBILE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH WEST TOWARDS THE REGION AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALREADY IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY OVER THE AREA. AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH ONLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED EARLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF INTERSTATE
65...WHERE 40 TO 60 POP LOOKS REASONABLE. THE LIKELY POP SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH LITTLE WIND ENERGY AND
DRY AIR ALOFT PROGGED BY MODELS...EVEN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY. HOWEVER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CONVERGENCE AREA CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA TO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FURTHER WEST...BUT PORTIONS OF IT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...40 TO 50 PERCENT. AGAIN THREATS WILL
REMAIN THE SAME WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
FOR SOME TIME BY MOST MODELS AND HAVE HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF FORCING AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER COVERAGE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. WIND SHEAR STILL LOOKS
WEAK...AND WITH LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT DO NOT SEE A SEVERE RISK WITH
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BIGGEST
THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED THROUGH THURSDAY...DUE TO
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS SHIFT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MORE EAST THAN
SOUTH...SO FRONT MAY WASH OUT ON TOP OF CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THEREFORE KEPT THE 20 POP IN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND KEPT HIGHER
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT STRONGER
AND WILL HAVE A BIT MORE WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MIGHT MATERIALIZE DURING THE PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE
IT IS SO FAR OUT..LEFT 30 POP FOR NOW AND LOWERED TEMPERATURE TREND
JUST A BIT.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1244 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA IN
VICINITY OF MSL AND HSV TOWARD THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME...AND HAVE
ADDED IN VCSH TO THE FORECAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS. ALSO ADDED IN A
VCTS GROUPING AFTER 14Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    71  82  68  85 /  20  40  20  50
SHOALS        70  87  69  87 /  20  20  20  40
VINEMONT      69  81  66  84 /  20  50  20  50
FAYETTEVILLE  68  80  69  84 /  20  40  20  50
ALBERTVILLE   70  81  67  85 /  20  60  20  50
FORT PAYNE    68  81  68  84 /  20  60  20  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 212037
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
337 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

MODELS FORECAST A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO
SLIDE WEST OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MOBILE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH WEST TOWARDS THE REGION AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALREADY IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY OVER THE AREA. AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH ONLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED EARLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF INTERSTATE
65...WHERE 40 TO 60 POP LOOKS REASONABLE. THE LIKELY POP SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH LITTLE WIND ENERGY AND
DRY AIR ALOFT PROGGED BY MODELS...EVEN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY. HOWEVER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CONVERGENCE AREA CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA TO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FURTHER WEST...BUT PORTIONS OF IT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...40 TO 50 PERCENT. AGAIN THREATS WILL
REMAIN THE SAME WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
FOR SOME TIME BY MOST MODELS AND HAVE HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF FORCING AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER COVERAGE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. WIND SHEAR STILL LOOKS
WEAK...AND WITH LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT DO NOT SEE A SEVERE RISK WITH
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BIGGEST
THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED THROUGH THURSDAY...DUE TO
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS SHIFT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MORE EAST THAN
SOUTH...SO FRONT MAY WASH OUT ON TOP OF CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THEREFORE KEPT THE 20 POP IN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND KEPT HIGHER
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT STRONGER
AND WILL HAVE A BIT MORE WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MIGHT MATERIALIZE DURING THE PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE
IT IS SO FAR OUT..LEFT 30 POP FOR NOW AND LOWERED TEMPERATURE TREND
JUST A BIT.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1244 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA IN
VICINITY OF MSL AND HSV TOWARD THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME...AND HAVE
ADDED IN VCSH TO THE FORECAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS. ALSO ADDED IN A
VCTS GROUPING AFTER 14Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    71  82  68  85 /  20  40  20  50
SHOALS        70  87  69  87 /  20  20  20  40
VINEMONT      69  81  66  84 /  20  50  20  50
FAYETTEVILLE  68  80  69  84 /  20  40  20  50
ALBERTVILLE   70  81  67  85 /  20  60  20  50
FORT PAYNE    68  81  68  84 /  20  60  20  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 212032
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OCCUPIES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES)...WHILE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY REMAINS VERY
MOIST (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES). MEANWHILE...A
WEAK REFLECTION LOW AT THE SURFACE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTH ALABAMA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL
RAIN-FREE. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN ALABAMA TO PENSACOLA
FLORIDA AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWEST...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS LINE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
/22

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST.
THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THE FAVORABLE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE POPS. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS IT MERGES WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MAINTAINING SCATTERED POPS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
CREATE AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
SCATTERED COVERAGES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT LINGERS
TO OUR NORTH AND DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.AVIATION [21.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KMOB AND KBFM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO TEMPO GROUP REQUIRED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL AT
KPNS...THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO
GROUP ADDED FROM 18Z TO 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 212003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

INTERESTING SUMMER CONTINUES. A DECENTLY STRONG JULY UPPER LEVEL
LOW...LEFTOVERS FROM THE LAST SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS ADDED ADDITIONAL FORCING BEYOND THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SUMMER CONVECTION...EVIDENCED BY THE NOCTURNAL
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SEEN LAST NIGHT...AND LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT. THIS LOW DOES ADD SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING THAT DRIVES UP
THE POPS...HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IT BRINGS KEEPS THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE DOWN A BIT BY NOT ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM DAYTIME
HEATING IN THE HIGHER POP REGIONS. IT ALSO HAS THE ATYPICAL STORM
MOTIONS...SLOW AND TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE COMING DAYS...AND
WITHOUT A KICKING OUT SYSTEM IN PLAY...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WASH
OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK SOMEWHERE NEAR HOUSTON. IN THE
MEANTIME...THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WE
MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER DEWPOINTS...NORTHWEST WIND...AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURE TREND. ALTHOUGH...IT IS LOOKING NOTHING LIKE
THE LAST ROUND!

FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE TWO SYSTEMS
WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP GULF MOISTURE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE SCALE WEAK FORCING. WOULD LIKE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM PLAYS OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE BITING TOO
HARD ON THE FORECAST...BUT WENT AHEAD AND BEGAN TO SHOW TRENDS
DOWNWARD BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE DEWPOINTS AND POPS IN
ANTICIPATION THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT THROUGH THE
AREA.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHES OF MVFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/EAST THIS
AFTN/EVNG. BEST CHANCES AT MGM/TOI AND POTENTIALLY ANB. CAN`T RULE
OUT A SHOWER ELSEWHERE BUT COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTION AT ANY OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

CONTINUED PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
MAINTAINED LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOR THOSE TERMINALS THAT WERE IMPACTED
LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY TOI/ANB/EET.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS/AMENDMENTS THRU THE
EVENING AND NIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  86  69  88  70 /  30  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  87  69  89  71 /  50  50  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  90  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  91  72 /  10  50  20  30  20
CALERA      71  86  70  89  72 /  20  50  20  30  20
AUBURN      70  86  71  89  72 /  50  50  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  92  73 /  50  50  20  20  20
TROY        70  88  70  91  71 /  50  50  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 212003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

INTERESTING SUMMER CONTINUES. A DECENTLY STRONG JULY UPPER LEVEL
LOW...LEFTOVERS FROM THE LAST SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS ADDED ADDITIONAL FORCING BEYOND THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SUMMER CONVECTION...EVIDENCED BY THE NOCTURNAL
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SEEN LAST NIGHT...AND LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT. THIS LOW DOES ADD SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING THAT DRIVES UP
THE POPS...HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IT BRINGS KEEPS THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE DOWN A BIT BY NOT ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM DAYTIME
HEATING IN THE HIGHER POP REGIONS. IT ALSO HAS THE ATYPICAL STORM
MOTIONS...SLOW AND TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE COMING DAYS...AND
WITHOUT A KICKING OUT SYSTEM IN PLAY...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WASH
OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK SOMEWHERE NEAR HOUSTON. IN THE
MEANTIME...THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WE
MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER DEWPOINTS...NORTHWEST WIND...AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURE TREND. ALTHOUGH...IT IS LOOKING NOTHING LIKE
THE LAST ROUND!

FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE TWO SYSTEMS
WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP GULF MOISTURE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE SCALE WEAK FORCING. WOULD LIKE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM PLAYS OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE BITING TOO
HARD ON THE FORECAST...BUT WENT AHEAD AND BEGAN TO SHOW TRENDS
DOWNWARD BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE DEWPOINTS AND POPS IN
ANTICIPATION THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT THROUGH THE
AREA.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHES OF MVFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/EAST THIS
AFTN/EVNG. BEST CHANCES AT MGM/TOI AND POTENTIALLY ANB. CAN`T RULE
OUT A SHOWER ELSEWHERE BUT COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTION AT ANY OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

CONTINUED PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
MAINTAINED LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOR THOSE TERMINALS THAT WERE IMPACTED
LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY TOI/ANB/EET.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS/AMENDMENTS THRU THE
EVENING AND NIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  86  69  88  70 /  30  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  87  69  89  71 /  50  50  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  90  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  91  72 /  10  50  20  30  20
CALERA      71  86  70  89  72 /  20  50  20  30  20
AUBURN      70  86  71  89  72 /  50  50  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  92  73 /  50  50  20  20  20
TROY        70  88  70  91  71 /  50  50  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 212003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

INTERESTING SUMMER CONTINUES. A DECENTLY STRONG JULY UPPER LEVEL
LOW...LEFTOVERS FROM THE LAST SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS ADDED ADDITIONAL FORCING BEYOND THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SUMMER CONVECTION...EVIDENCED BY THE NOCTURNAL
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SEEN LAST NIGHT...AND LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT. THIS LOW DOES ADD SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING THAT DRIVES UP
THE POPS...HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IT BRINGS KEEPS THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE DOWN A BIT BY NOT ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM DAYTIME
HEATING IN THE HIGHER POP REGIONS. IT ALSO HAS THE ATYPICAL STORM
MOTIONS...SLOW AND TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE COMING DAYS...AND
WITHOUT A KICKING OUT SYSTEM IN PLAY...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WASH
OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK SOMEWHERE NEAR HOUSTON. IN THE
MEANTIME...THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WE
MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER DEWPOINTS...NORTHWEST WIND...AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURE TREND. ALTHOUGH...IT IS LOOKING NOTHING LIKE
THE LAST ROUND!

FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE TWO SYSTEMS
WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP GULF MOISTURE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE SCALE WEAK FORCING. WOULD LIKE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM PLAYS OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE BITING TOO
HARD ON THE FORECAST...BUT WENT AHEAD AND BEGAN TO SHOW TRENDS
DOWNWARD BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE DEWPOINTS AND POPS IN
ANTICIPATION THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT THROUGH THE
AREA.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHES OF MVFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/EAST THIS
AFTN/EVNG. BEST CHANCES AT MGM/TOI AND POTENTIALLY ANB. CAN`T RULE
OUT A SHOWER ELSEWHERE BUT COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTION AT ANY OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

CONTINUED PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
MAINTAINED LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOR THOSE TERMINALS THAT WERE IMPACTED
LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY TOI/ANB/EET.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS/AMENDMENTS THRU THE
EVENING AND NIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  86  69  88  70 /  30  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  87  69  89  71 /  50  50  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  90  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  91  72 /  10  50  20  30  20
CALERA      71  86  70  89  72 /  20  50  20  30  20
AUBURN      70  86  71  89  72 /  50  50  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  92  73 /  50  50  20  20  20
TROY        70  88  70  91  71 /  50  50  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 212003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

INTERESTING SUMMER CONTINUES. A DECENTLY STRONG JULY UPPER LEVEL
LOW...LEFTOVERS FROM THE LAST SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS ADDED ADDITIONAL FORCING BEYOND THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SUMMER CONVECTION...EVIDENCED BY THE NOCTURNAL
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SEEN LAST NIGHT...AND LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT. THIS LOW DOES ADD SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING THAT DRIVES UP
THE POPS...HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IT BRINGS KEEPS THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE DOWN A BIT BY NOT ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM DAYTIME
HEATING IN THE HIGHER POP REGIONS. IT ALSO HAS THE ATYPICAL STORM
MOTIONS...SLOW AND TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE COMING DAYS...AND
WITHOUT A KICKING OUT SYSTEM IN PLAY...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WASH
OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK SOMEWHERE NEAR HOUSTON. IN THE
MEANTIME...THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WE
MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER DEWPOINTS...NORTHWEST WIND...AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURE TREND. ALTHOUGH...IT IS LOOKING NOTHING LIKE
THE LAST ROUND!

FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE TWO SYSTEMS
WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP GULF MOISTURE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE SCALE WEAK FORCING. WOULD LIKE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM PLAYS OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE BITING TOO
HARD ON THE FORECAST...BUT WENT AHEAD AND BEGAN TO SHOW TRENDS
DOWNWARD BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE DEWPOINTS AND POPS IN
ANTICIPATION THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT THROUGH THE
AREA.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHES OF MVFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/EAST THIS
AFTN/EVNG. BEST CHANCES AT MGM/TOI AND POTENTIALLY ANB. CAN`T RULE
OUT A SHOWER ELSEWHERE BUT COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTION AT ANY OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

CONTINUED PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
MAINTAINED LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOR THOSE TERMINALS THAT WERE IMPACTED
LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY TOI/ANB/EET.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS/AMENDMENTS THRU THE
EVENING AND NIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  86  69  88  70 /  30  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  87  69  89  71 /  50  50  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  90  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  91  72 /  10  50  20  30  20
CALERA      71  86  70  89  72 /  20  50  20  30  20
AUBURN      70  86  71  89  72 /  50  50  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  92  73 /  50  50  20  20  20
TROY        70  88  70  91  71 /  50  50  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 211752 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION [21.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KMOB AND KBFM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO TEMPO GROUP REQUIRED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL AT KPNS...
THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUP ADDED
FROM 18Z TO 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGENERATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL RAIN-FREE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH A LITTLE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED CIGS AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND THE COAST...INCLUDING NEAR
KMOB AND KPNS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND
2SM AT KMOB. WE WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL TAF/S
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THAT
DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  50  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  40  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  30  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 211752 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION [21.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KMOB AND KBFM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO TEMPO GROUP REQUIRED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL AT KPNS...
THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUP ADDED
FROM 18Z TO 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGENERATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL RAIN-FREE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH A LITTLE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED CIGS AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND THE COAST...INCLUDING NEAR
KMOB AND KPNS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND
2SM AT KMOB. WE WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL TAF/S
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THAT
DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  50  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  40  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  30  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 211752 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION [21.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KMOB AND KBFM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO TEMPO GROUP REQUIRED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL AT KPNS...
THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUP ADDED
FROM 18Z TO 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGENERATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL RAIN-FREE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH A LITTLE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED CIGS AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND THE COAST...INCLUDING NEAR
KMOB AND KPNS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND
2SM AT KMOB. WE WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL TAF/S
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THAT
DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  50  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  40  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  30  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 211752 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION [21.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KMOB AND KBFM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO TEMPO GROUP REQUIRED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL AT KPNS...
THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUP ADDED
FROM 18Z TO 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGENERATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL RAIN-FREE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH A LITTLE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED CIGS AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND THE COAST...INCLUDING NEAR
KMOB AND KPNS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND
2SM AT KMOB. WE WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL TAF/S
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THAT
DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  50  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  40  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  30  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 211744 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1244 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1024 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
THE LATEST 15Z SURFACE OBS AND ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT WEAK SURFACE
LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. A BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE CURRENT POPS IN TODAYS FORECAST LOOK
GENERALLY GOOD AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC MODEL/ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES ALSO TO TEMPS TO LOWER THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA IN
VICINITY OF MSL AND HSV TOWARD THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME...AND HAVE
ADDED IN VCSH TO THE FORECAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS. ALSO ADDED IN A
VCTS GROUPING AFTER 14Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211744 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1244 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1024 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
THE LATEST 15Z SURFACE OBS AND ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT WEAK SURFACE
LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. A BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE CURRENT POPS IN TODAYS FORECAST LOOK
GENERALLY GOOD AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC MODEL/ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES ALSO TO TEMPS TO LOWER THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA IN
VICINITY OF MSL AND HSV TOWARD THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME...AND HAVE
ADDED IN VCSH TO THE FORECAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS. ALSO ADDED IN A
VCTS GROUPING AFTER 14Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211744 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1244 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1024 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
THE LATEST 15Z SURFACE OBS AND ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT WEAK SURFACE
LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. A BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE CURRENT POPS IN TODAYS FORECAST LOOK
GENERALLY GOOD AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC MODEL/ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES ALSO TO TEMPS TO LOWER THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA IN
VICINITY OF MSL AND HSV TOWARD THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME...AND HAVE
ADDED IN VCSH TO THE FORECAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS. ALSO ADDED IN A
VCTS GROUPING AFTER 14Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211744 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1244 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1024 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
THE LATEST 15Z SURFACE OBS AND ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT WEAK SURFACE
LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. A BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE CURRENT POPS IN TODAYS FORECAST LOOK
GENERALLY GOOD AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC MODEL/ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES ALSO TO TEMPS TO LOWER THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA IN
VICINITY OF MSL AND HSV TOWARD THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME...AND HAVE
ADDED IN VCSH TO THE FORECAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS. ALSO ADDED IN A
VCTS GROUPING AFTER 14Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 211729
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AT THE SFC...THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
MEANWHILE...THE OLD SFC LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF NW GA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE/E TODAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE INVERTED SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LOW. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THESE AREAS BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED HIGHER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BE MONITORING STORM MOVEMENT VERY CLOSELY TODAY AS SOME STORMS
COULD BE ALMOST STATIONARY. ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING...MOST LIKELY IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE
EAST. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. UPDATES ARE OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHES OF MVFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/EAST THIS
AFTN/EVNG. BEST CHANCES AT MGM/TOI AND POTENTIALLY ANB. CAN`T RULE
OUT A SHOWER ELSEWHERE BUT COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTION AT ANY OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

CONTINUED PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
MAINTAINED LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOR THOSE TERMINALS THAT WERE IMPACTED
LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY TOI/ANB/EET.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS/AMENDMENTS THRU THE
EVENING AND NIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  87  69  88  70 /  20  40  20  30  30
ANNISTON    71  87  70  89  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  88  72  90  73 /  10  40  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  70  89  70  91  72 /  10  40  20  30  20
CALERA      71  87  71  89  72 /  10  40  20  30  20
AUBURN      71  87  71  89  72 /  20  40  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  72  90  71  92  73 /  20  40  20  30  20
TROY        70  89  70  91  71 /  20  50  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 211729
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AT THE SFC...THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
MEANWHILE...THE OLD SFC LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF NW GA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE/E TODAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE INVERTED SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LOW. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THESE AREAS BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED HIGHER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BE MONITORING STORM MOVEMENT VERY CLOSELY TODAY AS SOME STORMS
COULD BE ALMOST STATIONARY. ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING...MOST LIKELY IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE
EAST. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. UPDATES ARE OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHES OF MVFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/EAST THIS
AFTN/EVNG. BEST CHANCES AT MGM/TOI AND POTENTIALLY ANB. CAN`T RULE
OUT A SHOWER ELSEWHERE BUT COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTION AT ANY OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

CONTINUED PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
MAINTAINED LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOR THOSE TERMINALS THAT WERE IMPACTED
LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY TOI/ANB/EET.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS/AMENDMENTS THRU THE
EVENING AND NIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  87  69  88  70 /  20  40  20  30  30
ANNISTON    71  87  70  89  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  88  72  90  73 /  10  40  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  70  89  70  91  72 /  10  40  20  30  20
CALERA      71  87  71  89  72 /  10  40  20  30  20
AUBURN      71  87  71  89  72 /  20  40  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  72  90  71  92  73 /  20  40  20  30  20
TROY        70  89  70  91  71 /  20  50  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 211524 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1024 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 15Z SURFACE OBS AND ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT WEAK SURFACE
LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. A BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE CURRENT POPS IN TODAYS FORECAST LOOK
GENERALLY GOOD AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC MODEL/ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES ALSO TO TEMPS TO LOWER THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 705 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL LINGER AT KMSL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS. KHSV WILL ESCAPE ANY MAJOR
VIS REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON /ESPECIALLY  AT KHSV/ BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN SO
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211524 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1024 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 15Z SURFACE OBS AND ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT WEAK SURFACE
LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. A BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE CURRENT POPS IN TODAYS FORECAST LOOK
GENERALLY GOOD AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC MODEL/ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES ALSO TO TEMPS TO LOWER THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 705 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL LINGER AT KMSL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS. KHSV WILL ESCAPE ANY MAJOR
VIS REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON /ESPECIALLY  AT KHSV/ BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN SO
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 211522
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1022 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AT THE SFC...THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
MEANWHILE...THE OLD SFC LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF NW GA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE/E TODAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE INVERTED SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LOW. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THESE AREAS BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED HIGHER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BE MONITORING STORM MOVEMENT VERY CLOSELY TODAY AS SOME STORMS
COULD BE ALMOST STATIONARY. ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING...MOST LIKELY IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE
EAST. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. UPDATES ARE OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LOWEST VIS AND CIGS HAVE BEEN AT EET AND ANB...WITH MGM
AND TOI JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE ACT. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE AT ANB...MGM AND TOI TODAY SO PUT VCSH IN AT THESE
SITES. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE NOT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
AT THE OTHER SITES. TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT THE SAME AREAS AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS LAMP FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE
TONIGHT AS THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL GOING LOW. AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED
FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

WEAK UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE  AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES IN THE EAST BASED ON THE POSITIONING OF THOSE FEATURES.
HIGHS MID 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY. LOTS OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING.

OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD OPEN US UP FOR BETTER
COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS UP THAT DAY TO A HIGHER
CHANCE CATEGORY. WEDNESDAY IS SORT OF A WASH. WE ARE STILL IN A
GENERAL TROUGH POSITION WITH UPPER RIDGING REALLY BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT LIFTING FEATURES TO KEY ON
SO MORE OR LESS CLIMATE TYPE RAIN CHANCES FOR THAT DAY AIDED BY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATE AVERAGES.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
A COUPLE OF IMPULSES DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AND IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE OF THOSE MIGHT BE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
TIME-FRAME. ITS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME THOSE FEATURES
BUT POPS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ON THURSDAY. KEPT IT IN THE CHANCE
RANGE FOR NOW BUT MIGHT BUMP THOSE UP TO LIKELY IF EVERYTHING
STAYS ON TRACK THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WESTERN RIDGING THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A GENERAL TROUGH WITH THE EBB AND
FLOW OF THE WESTERN RIDGE POSSIBLY SENDING AN IMPULSE OR TWO
TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A STRONG SURFACE FRONT
MIXED IN THERE AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY AT THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST...THAT COULD SEND SOME RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN
FROM CANADA. WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND PERIOD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND
WATCH THE TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  69  87  69  88 /  50  20  40  20  30
ANNISTON    85  71  87  70  89 /  60  20  40  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  72  88  72  90 /  30  10  40  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  70  89  70  91 /  20  10  40  20  30
CALERA      87  71  87  71  89 /  50  10  40  20  30
AUBURN      84  71  87  71  89 /  90  20  40  20  30
MONTGOMERY  89  72  90  71  92 /  80  20  40  20  30
TROY        87  70  89  70  91 /  80  20  50  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 211522
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1022 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AT THE SFC...THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
MEANWHILE...THE OLD SFC LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF NW GA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE/E TODAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE INVERTED SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LOW. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THESE AREAS BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED HIGHER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BE MONITORING STORM MOVEMENT VERY CLOSELY TODAY AS SOME STORMS
COULD BE ALMOST STATIONARY. ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING...MOST LIKELY IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE
EAST. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. UPDATES ARE OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LOWEST VIS AND CIGS HAVE BEEN AT EET AND ANB...WITH MGM
AND TOI JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE ACT. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE AT ANB...MGM AND TOI TODAY SO PUT VCSH IN AT THESE
SITES. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE NOT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
AT THE OTHER SITES. TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT THE SAME AREAS AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS LAMP FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE
TONIGHT AS THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL GOING LOW. AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED
FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

WEAK UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE  AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES IN THE EAST BASED ON THE POSITIONING OF THOSE FEATURES.
HIGHS MID 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY. LOTS OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING.

OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD OPEN US UP FOR BETTER
COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS UP THAT DAY TO A HIGHER
CHANCE CATEGORY. WEDNESDAY IS SORT OF A WASH. WE ARE STILL IN A
GENERAL TROUGH POSITION WITH UPPER RIDGING REALLY BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT LIFTING FEATURES TO KEY ON
SO MORE OR LESS CLIMATE TYPE RAIN CHANCES FOR THAT DAY AIDED BY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATE AVERAGES.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
A COUPLE OF IMPULSES DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AND IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE OF THOSE MIGHT BE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
TIME-FRAME. ITS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME THOSE FEATURES
BUT POPS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ON THURSDAY. KEPT IT IN THE CHANCE
RANGE FOR NOW BUT MIGHT BUMP THOSE UP TO LIKELY IF EVERYTHING
STAYS ON TRACK THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WESTERN RIDGING THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A GENERAL TROUGH WITH THE EBB AND
FLOW OF THE WESTERN RIDGE POSSIBLY SENDING AN IMPULSE OR TWO
TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A STRONG SURFACE FRONT
MIXED IN THERE AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY AT THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST...THAT COULD SEND SOME RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN
FROM CANADA. WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND PERIOD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND
WATCH THE TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  69  87  69  88 /  50  20  40  20  30
ANNISTON    85  71  87  70  89 /  60  20  40  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  72  88  72  90 /  30  10  40  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  70  89  70  91 /  20  10  40  20  30
CALERA      87  71  87  71  89 /  50  10  40  20  30
AUBURN      84  71  87  71  89 /  90  20  40  20  30
MONTGOMERY  89  72  90  71  92 /  80  20  40  20  30
TROY        87  70  89  70  91 /  80  20  50  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 211511 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1011 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGENERATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL RAIN-FREE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED COVEAGE TO THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH A LITTLE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED CIGS AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND THE COAST...INCLUDING NEAR
KMOB AND KPNS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND
2SM AT KMOB. WE WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL TAF/S
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THAT
DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  50  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  40  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  30  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 211511 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1011 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGENERATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL RAIN-FREE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED COVEAGE TO THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH A LITTLE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED CIGS AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND THE COAST...INCLUDING NEAR
KMOB AND KPNS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND
2SM AT KMOB. WE WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL TAF/S
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THAT
DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  50  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  40  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  30  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 211511 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1011 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGENERATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL RAIN-FREE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED COVEAGE TO THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH A LITTLE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED CIGS AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND THE COAST...INCLUDING NEAR
KMOB AND KPNS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND
2SM AT KMOB. WE WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL TAF/S
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THAT
DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  50  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  40  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  30  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 211511 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1011 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGENERATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL RAIN-FREE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED COVEAGE TO THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH A LITTLE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED CIGS AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND THE COAST...INCLUDING NEAR
KMOB AND KPNS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND
2SM AT KMOB. WE WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL TAF/S
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THAT
DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  50  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  40  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  30  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 211205 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
705 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 607 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY
A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY AND EVOLVE INTO A CUTOFF CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA TONIGHT...AS IT WILL BE TRAPPED BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. SEVERAL LOWER
AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EVOLVING CUTOFF
LOW...AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FIRST WAVE --
WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA -- WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE A
WEAK WEDGE FRONT DRAPED AROUND THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THIS HAS ALREADY FORCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NE ALABAMA/NW GEORGIA --
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THICK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SB INSTABILITY TODAY...AND
HAVE REDUCED THREAT FOR STORMS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...GFS MOS VALUES AROUND 90 SEEM UNREASONABLY WARM AND
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SECOND AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAX -- RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE -- IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BETWEEN 22/09-12Z. HOWEVER...THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY COME DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY... WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS IN THE 1.8-2
INCH RANGE. THE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND RETROGRADES FURTHER TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY OPEN INTO A WAVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGHER
LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE CLEAR EVIDENCE OF FOCUSED SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING IN THE WAKE OF TOMORROW`S VORT MAX...WE WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BASED
PRIMARILY ON VERY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OR JUST
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE/CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AS STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALLOWS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ZONE IN TENNESSEE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BRIEFLY FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY AS ALL GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES THIS WEEKEND...
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY PERMIT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY-SUNDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL LINGER AT KMSL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS. KHSV WILL ESCAPE ANY MAJOR
VIS REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON /ESPECIALLY  AT KHSV/ BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN SO
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211205 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
705 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 607 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY
A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY AND EVOLVE INTO A CUTOFF CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA TONIGHT...AS IT WILL BE TRAPPED BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. SEVERAL LOWER
AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EVOLVING CUTOFF
LOW...AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FIRST WAVE --
WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA -- WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE A
WEAK WEDGE FRONT DRAPED AROUND THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THIS HAS ALREADY FORCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NE ALABAMA/NW GEORGIA --
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THICK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SB INSTABILITY TODAY...AND
HAVE REDUCED THREAT FOR STORMS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...GFS MOS VALUES AROUND 90 SEEM UNREASONABLY WARM AND
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SECOND AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAX -- RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE -- IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BETWEEN 22/09-12Z. HOWEVER...THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY COME DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY... WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS IN THE 1.8-2
INCH RANGE. THE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND RETROGRADES FURTHER TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY OPEN INTO A WAVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGHER
LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE CLEAR EVIDENCE OF FOCUSED SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING IN THE WAKE OF TOMORROW`S VORT MAX...WE WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BASED
PRIMARILY ON VERY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OR JUST
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE/CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AS STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALLOWS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ZONE IN TENNESSEE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BRIEFLY FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY AS ALL GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES THIS WEEKEND...
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY PERMIT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY-SUNDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL LINGER AT KMSL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS. KHSV WILL ESCAPE ANY MAJOR
VIS REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON /ESPECIALLY  AT KHSV/ BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN SO
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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