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000
FXUS64 KHUN 221346 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
746 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS IS PRODUCING PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO AOB 3SM IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO DZ AND BR.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS VALID WITH NO FURTHER CHANGES
EXPECTED. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SHRA IN ERN MS AND SWRN
AL WHICH MAY MOVE OUR WAY BY MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...POOR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTACT. COVERAGE OF -DZ WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THRU THE
MORNING AND HAVE PLACED THIS AS PREVAILING WX COND FOR BOTH TERMINALS
BY 22/15Z...WITH A LARGER AREA OF RA EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD AND
IMPACT THE AIRPORTS BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. DESPITE THIS...PREVAILING
CIGS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000 FT WITH
ONLY MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS 6SM -- GIVEN STRENGTH OF SE WINDS. THE
AREA OF RA WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD BY 23/01Z...WITH IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SEPARATE ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...AND IMPACT MSL BY 06Z AND
HSV BY 09Z.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN BY A DEGREE OR TWO
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WAA RAMPS
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX BY 06Z ON TUESDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING JUST TO
OUR WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN DEEP GULF
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON TUESDAY...WITH A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST ALONG THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR...WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PUSHING TO THE NORTH AS WELL. AS THE LOW RACES NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY MINIMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD HELP KEEP THE
INSTABILITY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...THE STRONG WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY...CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT THIS FAR
NORTH...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
DECENT...THUS THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND SUBSEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS...THOUGH THIS
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH
MOISTENING GROUND CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAMS TO REACH BANKFULL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS DO NOT LOOK TO DROP AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE OCCURS WHILE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...TOOK OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED...GIVEN THE GENERAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221346 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
746 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS IS PRODUCING PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO AOB 3SM IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO DZ AND BR.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS VALID WITH NO FURTHER CHANGES
EXPECTED. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SHRA IN ERN MS AND SWRN
AL WHICH MAY MOVE OUR WAY BY MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...POOR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTACT. COVERAGE OF -DZ WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THRU THE
MORNING AND HAVE PLACED THIS AS PREVAILING WX COND FOR BOTH TERMINALS
BY 22/15Z...WITH A LARGER AREA OF RA EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD AND
IMPACT THE AIRPORTS BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. DESPITE THIS...PREVAILING
CIGS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000 FT WITH
ONLY MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS 6SM -- GIVEN STRENGTH OF SE WINDS. THE
AREA OF RA WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD BY 23/01Z...WITH IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SEPARATE ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...AND IMPACT MSL BY 06Z AND
HSV BY 09Z.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN BY A DEGREE OR TWO
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WAA RAMPS
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX BY 06Z ON TUESDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING JUST TO
OUR WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN DEEP GULF
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON TUESDAY...WITH A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST ALONG THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR...WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PUSHING TO THE NORTH AS WELL. AS THE LOW RACES NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY MINIMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD HELP KEEP THE
INSTABILITY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...THE STRONG WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY...CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT THIS FAR
NORTH...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
DECENT...THUS THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND SUBSEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS...THOUGH THIS
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH
MOISTENING GROUND CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAMS TO REACH BANKFULL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS DO NOT LOOK TO DROP AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE OCCURS WHILE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...TOOK OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED...GIVEN THE GENERAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221346 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
746 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS IS PRODUCING PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO AOB 3SM IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO DZ AND BR.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS VALID WITH NO FURTHER CHANGES
EXPECTED. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SHRA IN ERN MS AND SWRN
AL WHICH MAY MOVE OUR WAY BY MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...POOR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTACT. COVERAGE OF -DZ WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THRU THE
MORNING AND HAVE PLACED THIS AS PREVAILING WX COND FOR BOTH TERMINALS
BY 22/15Z...WITH A LARGER AREA OF RA EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD AND
IMPACT THE AIRPORTS BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. DESPITE THIS...PREVAILING
CIGS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000 FT WITH
ONLY MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS 6SM -- GIVEN STRENGTH OF SE WINDS. THE
AREA OF RA WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD BY 23/01Z...WITH IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SEPARATE ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...AND IMPACT MSL BY 06Z AND
HSV BY 09Z.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN BY A DEGREE OR TWO
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WAA RAMPS
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX BY 06Z ON TUESDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING JUST TO
OUR WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN DEEP GULF
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON TUESDAY...WITH A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST ALONG THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR...WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PUSHING TO THE NORTH AS WELL. AS THE LOW RACES NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY MINIMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD HELP KEEP THE
INSTABILITY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...THE STRONG WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY...CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT THIS FAR
NORTH...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
DECENT...THUS THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND SUBSEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS...THOUGH THIS
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH
MOISTENING GROUND CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAMS TO REACH BANKFULL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS DO NOT LOOK TO DROP AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE OCCURS WHILE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...TOOK OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED...GIVEN THE GENERAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 221321
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
721 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASICALLY TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADD A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA FOR TODAY. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LATER SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THROUGH
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING
FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. WITH THIS PATTERN RAIN
CHANCE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE COAST SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMB
TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LEADING TO
THE FORMATION OF ADVECTION FOG OVER MOST COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
THEN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. AS USUAL WITH THIS TYPE OF FOG/LOW STATUS
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL VARY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT LEADING ME
TO KEEP THE COVERAGE AS PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
WILL ALSO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL FORCING ON TUE BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUE.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT MOST LIKE LEADING TO COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTS. THIS HAS
BEEN THE PATTERN FOR THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST
DOWNWARD FOR HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED
LEADING ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER MOS VALUES FOR TONIGHT THOUGH
ADDING A DEGREE OR 2 TO THE VALUES FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUES MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
FOR MOST AREAS TODAY FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHARP UPPER TROF OVER THE
PLAINS ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN ACCELERATES
WHILE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM OVER IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SURFACE LOW
HAVING DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRAVERSING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY...THEN
STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING FURTHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE CONTINUING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

A WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND THE 850 MB JET
INCREASES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO 40-50 KNOTS AND MAINTAINS THIS
INTENSITY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE COAST IN A REGION OF THE BEST INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENT.  THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HINT STRONGLY AT
THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM AND THEN LIFT THE WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS TO
THE BEST SHEAR...0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 250 M2/S2...AND SURFACE
BASED CAPES LIKELY IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  WHILE INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP WHICH LEAVES THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
POPS TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MILD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TREND COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  SMALL POPS
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WARM TO THE MID 60S ON FRIDAY
THEN TREND COOLER TO HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON SUNDAY.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST WARM TO MID
40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TREND
COOLER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. /29

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER
TODAY THEN BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS COULD BUILD
TO NEAR 10 FEET WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING TUESDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING
SLOWLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT
22.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 23.00Z THEN LIFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 23.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY EARLY TUE MORNING. A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  62  72  58  61 /  60  60  80  80  20
PENSACOLA   66  61  72  62  65 /  60  60  90  90  40
DESTIN      65  60  71  65  65 /  60  60  90 100  50
EVERGREEN   67  59  72  60  62 /  60  50  90  90  40
WAYNESBORO  67  59  70  54  55 /  50  40  90  90  20
CAMDEN      66  59  71  58  58 /  50  40  90  80  40
CRESTVIEW   68  61  73  63  65 /  60  60  90 100  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 221321
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
721 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASICALLY TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADD A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA FOR TODAY. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LATER SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THROUGH
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING
FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. WITH THIS PATTERN RAIN
CHANCE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE COAST SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMB
TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LEADING TO
THE FORMATION OF ADVECTION FOG OVER MOST COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
THEN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. AS USUAL WITH THIS TYPE OF FOG/LOW STATUS
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL VARY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT LEADING ME
TO KEEP THE COVERAGE AS PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
WILL ALSO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL FORCING ON TUE BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUE.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT MOST LIKE LEADING TO COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTS. THIS HAS
BEEN THE PATTERN FOR THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST
DOWNWARD FOR HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED
LEADING ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER MOS VALUES FOR TONIGHT THOUGH
ADDING A DEGREE OR 2 TO THE VALUES FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUES MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
FOR MOST AREAS TODAY FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHARP UPPER TROF OVER THE
PLAINS ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN ACCELERATES
WHILE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM OVER IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SURFACE LOW
HAVING DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRAVERSING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY...THEN
STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING FURTHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE CONTINUING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

A WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND THE 850 MB JET
INCREASES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO 40-50 KNOTS AND MAINTAINS THIS
INTENSITY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE COAST IN A REGION OF THE BEST INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENT.  THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HINT STRONGLY AT
THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM AND THEN LIFT THE WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS TO
THE BEST SHEAR...0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 250 M2/S2...AND SURFACE
BASED CAPES LIKELY IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  WHILE INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP WHICH LEAVES THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
POPS TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MILD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TREND COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  SMALL POPS
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WARM TO THE MID 60S ON FRIDAY
THEN TREND COOLER TO HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON SUNDAY.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST WARM TO MID
40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TREND
COOLER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. /29

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER
TODAY THEN BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS COULD BUILD
TO NEAR 10 FEET WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING TUESDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING
SLOWLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT
22.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 23.00Z THEN LIFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 23.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY EARLY TUE MORNING. A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  62  72  58  61 /  60  60  80  80  20
PENSACOLA   66  61  72  62  65 /  60  60  90  90  40
DESTIN      65  60  71  65  65 /  60  60  90 100  50
EVERGREEN   67  59  72  60  62 /  60  50  90  90  40
WAYNESBORO  67  59  70  54  55 /  50  40  90  90  20
CAMDEN      66  59  71  58  58 /  50  40  90  80  40
CRESTVIEW   68  61  73  63  65 /  60  60  90 100  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 221321
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
721 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASICALLY TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADD A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA FOR TODAY. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LATER SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THROUGH
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING
FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. WITH THIS PATTERN RAIN
CHANCE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE COAST SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMB
TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LEADING TO
THE FORMATION OF ADVECTION FOG OVER MOST COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
THEN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. AS USUAL WITH THIS TYPE OF FOG/LOW STATUS
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL VARY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT LEADING ME
TO KEEP THE COVERAGE AS PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
WILL ALSO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL FORCING ON TUE BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUE.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT MOST LIKE LEADING TO COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTS. THIS HAS
BEEN THE PATTERN FOR THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST
DOWNWARD FOR HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED
LEADING ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER MOS VALUES FOR TONIGHT THOUGH
ADDING A DEGREE OR 2 TO THE VALUES FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUES MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
FOR MOST AREAS TODAY FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHARP UPPER TROF OVER THE
PLAINS ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN ACCELERATES
WHILE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM OVER IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SURFACE LOW
HAVING DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRAVERSING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY...THEN
STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING FURTHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE CONTINUING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

A WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND THE 850 MB JET
INCREASES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO 40-50 KNOTS AND MAINTAINS THIS
INTENSITY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE COAST IN A REGION OF THE BEST INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENT.  THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HINT STRONGLY AT
THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM AND THEN LIFT THE WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS TO
THE BEST SHEAR...0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 250 M2/S2...AND SURFACE
BASED CAPES LIKELY IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  WHILE INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP WHICH LEAVES THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
POPS TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MILD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TREND COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  SMALL POPS
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WARM TO THE MID 60S ON FRIDAY
THEN TREND COOLER TO HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON SUNDAY.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST WARM TO MID
40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TREND
COOLER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. /29

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER
TODAY THEN BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS COULD BUILD
TO NEAR 10 FEET WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING TUESDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING
SLOWLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT
22.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 23.00Z THEN LIFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 23.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY EARLY TUE MORNING. A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  62  72  58  61 /  60  60  80  80  20
PENSACOLA   66  61  72  62  65 /  60  60  90  90  40
DESTIN      65  60  71  65  65 /  60  60  90 100  50
EVERGREEN   67  59  72  60  62 /  60  50  90  90  40
WAYNESBORO  67  59  70  54  55 /  50  40  90  90  20
CAMDEN      66  59  71  58  58 /  50  40  90  80  40
CRESTVIEW   68  61  73  63  65 /  60  60  90 100  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 221321
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
721 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASICALLY TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADD A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA FOR TODAY. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LATER SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THROUGH
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING
FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. WITH THIS PATTERN RAIN
CHANCE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE COAST SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMB
TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LEADING TO
THE FORMATION OF ADVECTION FOG OVER MOST COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
THEN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. AS USUAL WITH THIS TYPE OF FOG/LOW STATUS
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL VARY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT LEADING ME
TO KEEP THE COVERAGE AS PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
WILL ALSO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL FORCING ON TUE BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUE.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT MOST LIKE LEADING TO COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTS. THIS HAS
BEEN THE PATTERN FOR THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST
DOWNWARD FOR HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED
LEADING ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER MOS VALUES FOR TONIGHT THOUGH
ADDING A DEGREE OR 2 TO THE VALUES FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUES MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
FOR MOST AREAS TODAY FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHARP UPPER TROF OVER THE
PLAINS ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN ACCELERATES
WHILE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM OVER IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SURFACE LOW
HAVING DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRAVERSING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY...THEN
STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING FURTHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE CONTINUING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

A WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND THE 850 MB JET
INCREASES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO 40-50 KNOTS AND MAINTAINS THIS
INTENSITY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE COAST IN A REGION OF THE BEST INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENT.  THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HINT STRONGLY AT
THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM AND THEN LIFT THE WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS TO
THE BEST SHEAR...0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 250 M2/S2...AND SURFACE
BASED CAPES LIKELY IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  WHILE INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP WHICH LEAVES THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
POPS TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MILD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TREND COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  SMALL POPS
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WARM TO THE MID 60S ON FRIDAY
THEN TREND COOLER TO HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON SUNDAY.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST WARM TO MID
40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TREND
COOLER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. /29

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER
TODAY THEN BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS COULD BUILD
TO NEAR 10 FEET WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING TUESDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING
SLOWLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT
22.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 23.00Z THEN LIFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 23.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY EARLY TUE MORNING. A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  62  72  58  61 /  60  60  80  80  20
PENSACOLA   66  61  72  62  65 /  60  60  90  90  40
DESTIN      65  60  71  65  65 /  60  60  90 100  50
EVERGREEN   67  59  72  60  62 /  60  50  90  90  40
WAYNESBORO  67  59  70  54  55 /  50  40  90  90  20
CAMDEN      66  59  71  58  58 /  50  40  90  80  40
CRESTVIEW   68  61  73  63  65 /  60  60  90 100  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 221237
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN BY A DEGREE OR TWO
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WAA RAMPS
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX BY 06Z ON TUESDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING JUST TO
OUR WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN DEEP GULF
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON TUESDAY...WITH A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST ALONG THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR...WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PUSHING TO THE NORTH AS WELL. AS THE LOW RACES NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY MINIMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD HELP KEEP THE
INSTABILITY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...THE STRONG WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY...CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT THIS FAR
NORTH...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
DECENT...THUS THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND SUBSEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS...THOUGH THIS
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH
MOISTENING GROUND CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAMS TO REACH BANKFULL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS DO NOT LOOK TO DROP AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE OCCURS WHILE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...TOOK OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED...GIVEN THE GENERAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...POOR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTACT. COVERAGE OF -DZ WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THRU THE
MORNING AND HAVE PLACED THIS AS PREVAILING WX COND FOR BOTH TERMINALS
BY 22/15Z...WITH A LARGER AREA OF RA EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD AND
IMPACT THE AIRPORTS BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. DESPITE THIS...PREVAILING
CIGS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000 FT WITH
ONLY MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS 6SM -- GIVEN STRENGTH OF SE WINDS. THE
AREA OF RA WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD BY 23/01Z...WITH IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SEPARATE ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...AND IMPACT MSL BY 06Z AND
HSV BY 09Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221237
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN BY A DEGREE OR TWO
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WAA RAMPS
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX BY 06Z ON TUESDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING JUST TO
OUR WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN DEEP GULF
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON TUESDAY...WITH A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST ALONG THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR...WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PUSHING TO THE NORTH AS WELL. AS THE LOW RACES NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY MINIMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD HELP KEEP THE
INSTABILITY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...THE STRONG WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY...CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT THIS FAR
NORTH...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
DECENT...THUS THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND SUBSEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS...THOUGH THIS
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH
MOISTENING GROUND CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAMS TO REACH BANKFULL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS DO NOT LOOK TO DROP AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE OCCURS WHILE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...TOOK OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED...GIVEN THE GENERAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...POOR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTACT. COVERAGE OF -DZ WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THRU THE
MORNING AND HAVE PLACED THIS AS PREVAILING WX COND FOR BOTH TERMINALS
BY 22/15Z...WITH A LARGER AREA OF RA EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD AND
IMPACT THE AIRPORTS BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. DESPITE THIS...PREVAILING
CIGS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000 FT WITH
ONLY MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS 6SM -- GIVEN STRENGTH OF SE WINDS. THE
AREA OF RA WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD BY 23/01Z...WITH IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SEPARATE ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...AND IMPACT MSL BY 06Z AND
HSV BY 09Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221237
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN BY A DEGREE OR TWO
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WAA RAMPS
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX BY 06Z ON TUESDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING JUST TO
OUR WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN DEEP GULF
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON TUESDAY...WITH A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST ALONG THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR...WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PUSHING TO THE NORTH AS WELL. AS THE LOW RACES NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY MINIMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD HELP KEEP THE
INSTABILITY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...THE STRONG WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY...CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT THIS FAR
NORTH...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
DECENT...THUS THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND SUBSEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS...THOUGH THIS
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH
MOISTENING GROUND CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAMS TO REACH BANKFULL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS DO NOT LOOK TO DROP AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE OCCURS WHILE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...TOOK OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED...GIVEN THE GENERAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...POOR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTACT. COVERAGE OF -DZ WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THRU THE
MORNING AND HAVE PLACED THIS AS PREVAILING WX COND FOR BOTH TERMINALS
BY 22/15Z...WITH A LARGER AREA OF RA EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD AND
IMPACT THE AIRPORTS BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. DESPITE THIS...PREVAILING
CIGS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000 FT WITH
ONLY MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS 6SM -- GIVEN STRENGTH OF SE WINDS. THE
AREA OF RA WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD BY 23/01Z...WITH IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SEPARATE ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...AND IMPACT MSL BY 06Z AND
HSV BY 09Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221237
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN BY A DEGREE OR TWO
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WAA RAMPS
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX BY 06Z ON TUESDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING JUST TO
OUR WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN DEEP GULF
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON TUESDAY...WITH A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST ALONG THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR...WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PUSHING TO THE NORTH AS WELL. AS THE LOW RACES NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY MINIMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD HELP KEEP THE
INSTABILITY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...THE STRONG WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY...CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT THIS FAR
NORTH...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
DECENT...THUS THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND SUBSEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS...THOUGH THIS
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH
MOISTENING GROUND CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAMS TO REACH BANKFULL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS DO NOT LOOK TO DROP AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE OCCURS WHILE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...TOOK OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED...GIVEN THE GENERAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...POOR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTACT. COVERAGE OF -DZ WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THRU THE
MORNING AND HAVE PLACED THIS AS PREVAILING WX COND FOR BOTH TERMINALS
BY 22/15Z...WITH A LARGER AREA OF RA EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD AND
IMPACT THE AIRPORTS BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. DESPITE THIS...PREVAILING
CIGS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000 FT WITH
ONLY MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS 6SM -- GIVEN STRENGTH OF SE WINDS. THE
AREA OF RA WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD BY 23/01Z...WITH IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SEPARATE ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...AND IMPACT MSL BY 06Z AND
HSV BY 09Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 221207
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
607 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATED...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS VERY MESSY AND COMPLEX AS
A TROUGH BECOMES CARVED OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE FORECAST
AREA IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT CAUSING
CLOUDS TO PERSIST. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE WARM FRONT MAKES ITS MOVE NORTHWARD. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BEST LIFT MAY OCCUR.
THE OVERALL SETUP IS QUITE UNUSUAL WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ABUNDANT 925-800MB MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP UPPER-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO CREATE A CHANCE FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO IF ANY STORMS FORM...THEY COULD CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY STALL FROM NEAR HUNTSVILLE TO
MERIDIAN. THIS WILL CREATE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ON TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRAVELING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THIS AXIS TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH MAY PREVENT
STORMS FROM BECOMING SURFACE BASED FARTHER NORTH. BEFORE THE
TROUGH BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...A PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT AND MAY ALLOW FOR A LOW END HAIL/WIND
THREAT WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL ESPECIALLY IF
COASTAL CONVECTION CAUSES STORMS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
ACROSS OUR AREA.

THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL WINDOW
FOR A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA AND MOVES
NORTHEAST. THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF COASTAL
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE ORGANIZATION OF A QLCS AS STRONGER FORCING
APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD ACTUALLY END UP
BEING FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS..NEAR STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OF IFR OR LIFR
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE/FEW HUNDRED
FEET EITHER SIDE OF 1000 FT. THERE MAY BE LIMITED IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH
PREDOMINANTLY LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD...AND AGAIN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  51  62  58  58 /  40  60 100 100  60
ANNISTON    55  52  64  60  61 /  40  50 100 100  60
BIRMINGHAM  57  56  64  56  56 /  40  60 100 100  50
TUSCALOOSA  59  58  65  52  53 /  50  60 100 100  30
CALERA      57  55  65  57  56 /  40  60 100 100  40
AUBURN      56  53  65  61  64 /  30  40 100 100  70
MONTGOMERY  61  58  70  62  62 /  40  40 100 100  50
TROY        62  58  69  63  63 /  40  40 100 100  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14








000
FXUS64 KHUN 221129
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN BY A DEGREE OR TWO
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WAA RAMPS
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX BY 06Z ON TUESDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING JUST TO
OUR WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN DEEP GULF
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON TUESDAY...WITH A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST ALONG THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR...WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PUSHING TO THE NORTH AS WELL. AS THE LOW RACES NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY MINIMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD HELP KEEP THE
INSTABILITY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...THE STRONG WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY...CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT THIS FAR
NORTH...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
DECENT...THUS THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND SUBSEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS...THOUGH THIS
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH
MOISTENING GROUND CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAMS TO REACH BANKFULL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS DO NOT LOOK TO DROP AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE OCCURS WHILE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...TOOK OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED...GIVEN THE GENERAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1138 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. A DECK OF MAINLY MVFR STRATUS
OVER THE REGION...WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN...MOSTLY NEAR/EAST OF KHSV LATE TONIGHT WILL ADD
TO THE WEATHER COMPLEXITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING MON...AS
A SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE SW. CIG LEVELS COULD LOWER TO LIFR LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS EAST OF I-65 WILL BE FROM THE SE 10-15KT.
LIGHT WINDS WEST OF I-65 WILL BECOME SE 5-10KT AFTER DAYBREAK.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    54  52  61  50 /  50  60  80  90
SHOALS        56  54  60  44 /  50  70  80  90
VINEMONT      52  50  62  50 /  50  60  80  90
FAYETTEVILLE  54  52  58  50 /  50  60  80  90
ALBERTVILLE   52  50  59  54 /  50  60  80  90
FORT PAYNE    52  50  57  52 /  50  50  80  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221129
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN BY A DEGREE OR TWO
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WAA RAMPS
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX BY 06Z ON TUESDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING JUST TO
OUR WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN DEEP GULF
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON TUESDAY...WITH A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST ALONG THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR...WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PUSHING TO THE NORTH AS WELL. AS THE LOW RACES NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY MINIMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD HELP KEEP THE
INSTABILITY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...THE STRONG WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY...CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT THIS FAR
NORTH...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
DECENT...THUS THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND SUBSEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS...THOUGH THIS
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH
MOISTENING GROUND CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAMS TO REACH BANKFULL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS DO NOT LOOK TO DROP AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE OCCURS WHILE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...TOOK OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED...GIVEN THE GENERAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1138 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. A DECK OF MAINLY MVFR STRATUS
OVER THE REGION...WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN...MOSTLY NEAR/EAST OF KHSV LATE TONIGHT WILL ADD
TO THE WEATHER COMPLEXITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING MON...AS
A SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE SW. CIG LEVELS COULD LOWER TO LIFR LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS EAST OF I-65 WILL BE FROM THE SE 10-15KT.
LIGHT WINDS WEST OF I-65 WILL BECOME SE 5-10KT AFTER DAYBREAK.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    54  52  61  50 /  50  60  80  90
SHOALS        56  54  60  44 /  50  70  80  90
VINEMONT      52  50  62  50 /  50  60  80  90
FAYETTEVILLE  54  52  58  50 /  50  60  80  90
ALBERTVILLE   52  50  59  54 /  50  60  80  90
FORT PAYNE    52  50  57  52 /  50  50  80  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221100
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
500 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS VERY MESSY AND COMPLEX AS
A TROUGH BECOMES CARVED OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE FORECAST
AREA IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT CAUSING
CLOUDS TO PERSIST. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE WARM FRONT MAKES ITS MOVE NORTHWARD. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BEST LIFT MAY OCCUR.
THE OVERALL SETUP IS QUITE UNUSUAL WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ABUNDANT 925-800MB MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP UPPER-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO CREATE A CHANCE FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO IF ANY STORMS FORM...THEY COULD CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY STALL FROM NEAR HUNTSVILLE TO
MERIDIAN. THIS WILL CREATE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ON TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRAVELING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THIS AXIS TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH MAY PREVENT
STORMS FROM BECOMING SURFACE BASED FARTHER NORTH. BEFORE THE
TROUGH BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...A PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT AND MAY ALLOW FOR A LOW END HAIL/WIND
THREAT WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL ESPECIALLY IF
COASTAL CONVECTION CAUSES STORMS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
ACROSS OUR AREA.

THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL WINDOW
FOR A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA AND MOVES
NORTHEAST. THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF COASTAL
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE ORGANIZATION OF A QLCS AS STRONGER FORCING
APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD ACTUALLY END UP
BEING FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL BE IN THE SLIGHTLY ODD SITUATION
OF HAVING LARGELY STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OF IFR OR LIFR. COMPUTER
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE/FEW HUNDRED FEET
EITHER SIDE OF 1000 FT. THERE MAY BE A GENERAL TREND OF LOWERING
IN SOME AREAS IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TRYING TO TIME THOSE
EXCURSIONS ABOVE OR BELOW 1000 FT IS QUITE PROBLEMATIC HOWEVER.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  51  62  58  58 /  40  60 100 100  60
ANNISTON    55  52  64  60  61 /  40  50 100 100  60
BIRMINGHAM  57  56  64  56  56 /  40  60 100 100  50
TUSCALOOSA  59  58  65  52  53 /  50  60 100 100  30
CALERA      57  55  65  57  56 /  40  60 100 100  40
AUBURN      56  53  65  61  64 /  30  40 100 100  70
MONTGOMERY  61  58  70  62  62 /  40  40 100 100  50
TROY        62  58  69  63  63 /  40  40 100 100  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/61





000
FXUS64 KMOB 221036
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LATER SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THROUGH
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING
FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. WITH THIS PATTERN RAIN
CHANCE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE COAST SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMB
TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LEADING TO
THE FORMATION OF ADVECTION FOG OVER MOST COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
THEN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. AS USUAL WITH THIS TYPE OF FOG/LOW STATUS
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL VARY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT LEADING ME
TO KEEP THE COVERAGE AS PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
WILL ALSO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL FORCING ON TUE BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUE.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT MOST LIKE LEADING TO COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTS. THIS HAS
BEEN THE PATTERN FOR THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST
DOWNWARD FOR HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED
LEADING ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER MOS VALUES FOR TONIGHT THOUGH
ADDING A DEGREE OR 2 TO THE VALUES FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUES MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
FOR MOST AREAS TODAY FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHARP UPPER TROF OVER THE
PLAINS ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN ACCELERATES
WHILE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM OVER IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SURFACE LOW
HAVING DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRAVERSING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY...THEN
STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING FURTHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE CONTINUING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

A WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND THE 850 MB JET
INCREASES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO 40-50 KNOTS AND MAINTAINS THIS
INTENSITY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE COAST IN A REGION OF THE BEST INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENT.  THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HINT STRONGLY AT
THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM AND THEN LIFT THE WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS TO
THE BEST SHEAR...0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 250 M2/S2...AND SURFACE
BASED CAPES LIKELY IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  WHILE INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP WHICH LEAVES THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
POPS TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MILD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TREND COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  SMALL POPS
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WARM TO THE MID 60S ON FRIDAY
THEN TREND COOLER TO HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON SUNDAY.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST WARM TO MID
40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TREND
COOLER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. /29

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER
TODAY THEN BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS COULD BUILD
TO NEAR 10 FEET WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING TUESDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING
SLOWLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT
22.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 23.00Z THEN LIFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 23.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY EARLY TUE MORNING. A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  62  72  58  61 /  50  60  80  80  20
PENSACOLA   66  61  72  62  65 /  60  60  90  90  40
DESTIN      65  60  71  65  65 /  60  60  90 100  50
EVERGREEN   67  59  72  60  62 /  50  50  90  90  40
WAYNESBORO  67  59  70  54  55 /  40  40  90  90  20
CAMDEN      66  59  71  58  58 /  40  40  90  80  40
CRESTVIEW   68  61  73  63  65 /  60  60  90 100  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 221036
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LATER SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THROUGH
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING
FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. WITH THIS PATTERN RAIN
CHANCE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE COAST SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMB
TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LEADING TO
THE FORMATION OF ADVECTION FOG OVER MOST COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
THEN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. AS USUAL WITH THIS TYPE OF FOG/LOW STATUS
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL VARY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT LEADING ME
TO KEEP THE COVERAGE AS PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
WILL ALSO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL FORCING ON TUE BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUE.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT MOST LIKE LEADING TO COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTS. THIS HAS
BEEN THE PATTERN FOR THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST
DOWNWARD FOR HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED
LEADING ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER MOS VALUES FOR TONIGHT THOUGH
ADDING A DEGREE OR 2 TO THE VALUES FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUES MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
FOR MOST AREAS TODAY FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHARP UPPER TROF OVER THE
PLAINS ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN ACCELERATES
WHILE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM OVER IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SURFACE LOW
HAVING DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRAVERSING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY...THEN
STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING FURTHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE CONTINUING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

A WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND THE 850 MB JET
INCREASES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO 40-50 KNOTS AND MAINTAINS THIS
INTENSITY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE COAST IN A REGION OF THE BEST INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENT.  THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HINT STRONGLY AT
THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM AND THEN LIFT THE WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS TO
THE BEST SHEAR...0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 250 M2/S2...AND SURFACE
BASED CAPES LIKELY IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  WHILE INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP WHICH LEAVES THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
POPS TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MILD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TREND COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  SMALL POPS
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WARM TO THE MID 60S ON FRIDAY
THEN TREND COOLER TO HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON SUNDAY.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST WARM TO MID
40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TREND
COOLER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. /29

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER
TODAY THEN BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS COULD BUILD
TO NEAR 10 FEET WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING TUESDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING
SLOWLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT
22.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 23.00Z THEN LIFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 23.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY EARLY TUE MORNING. A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  62  72  58  61 /  50  60  80  80  20
PENSACOLA   66  61  72  62  65 /  60  60  90  90  40
DESTIN      65  60  71  65  65 /  60  60  90 100  50
EVERGREEN   67  59  72  60  62 /  50  50  90  90  40
WAYNESBORO  67  59  70  54  55 /  40  40  90  90  20
CAMDEN      66  59  71  58  58 /  40  40  90  80  40
CRESTVIEW   68  61  73  63  65 /  60  60  90 100  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 220600
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A RATHER DEEP LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY UNTIL CHRISTMAS. THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WAS VERY LIGHT AND NOT MEASURING...BUT
CERTAINLY HELPING THICKEN AND LOWER THE CLOUDS. ACTUALLY DECREASED
MEASURABLE POPS OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY BUMPING IT EASTWARD. BUT DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE TO ALL PLACES BUT FAR NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL COMBINE TO DROP
VISIBILITIES IN SPOTS TO 1 MILE OR LESS. ADDED THIS MENTION INTO
THE HWO AND FORECAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND RAISED
LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL INDICATING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE ON THAT IN A FEW HOURS.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL BE IN THE SLIGHTLY ODD SITUATION
OF HAVING LARGELY STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OF IFR OR LIFR. COMPUTER
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE/FEW HUNDRED FEET
EITHER SIDE OF 1000 FT. THERE MAY BE A GENERAL TREND OF LOWERING
IN SOME AREAS IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TRYING TO TIME THOSE
EXCURSIONS ABOVE OR BELOW 1000 FT IS QUITE PROBLEMATIC HOWEVER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 220600
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A RATHER DEEP LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY UNTIL CHRISTMAS. THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WAS VERY LIGHT AND NOT MEASURING...BUT
CERTAINLY HELPING THICKEN AND LOWER THE CLOUDS. ACTUALLY DECREASED
MEASURABLE POPS OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY BUMPING IT EASTWARD. BUT DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE TO ALL PLACES BUT FAR NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL COMBINE TO DROP
VISIBILITIES IN SPOTS TO 1 MILE OR LESS. ADDED THIS MENTION INTO
THE HWO AND FORECAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND RAISED
LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL INDICATING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE ON THAT IN A FEW HOURS.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL BE IN THE SLIGHTLY ODD SITUATION
OF HAVING LARGELY STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OF IFR OR LIFR. COMPUTER
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE/FEW HUNDRED FEET
EITHER SIDE OF 1000 FT. THERE MAY BE A GENERAL TREND OF LOWERING
IN SOME AREAS IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TRYING TO TIME THOSE
EXCURSIONS ABOVE OR BELOW 1000 FT IS QUITE PROBLEMATIC HOWEVER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 220538 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1138 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 918 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A SW-NE
FASHION OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS IN THE 130-140KT RANGE
AROUND 35KFT UP. UNDER THE JET...LOWER LEVEL STRATUS HAS RETURNED AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SE. THE EDGE OF THOSE CLOUDS HAVE
COVERED ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FAR NW ALABAMA. WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...A WEAK WAVE NEAR THE GULF COAST HAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO SW GEORGIA.

NEW OUTPUT FROM THE NAM/RAP INDICATED THAT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
AMOUNTS OF IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SLIM SIDE...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TEMPERED. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF EVENING AREAWIDE. BUT HAVE LEFT IT IN (AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE) FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND TERRAIN
WILL BRING BETTER ODDS FOR RAIN AFFECTING THOSE AREAS. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATER TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE...AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SW. OTHER MAIN PARAMETERS...AKA
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS/SKY COVER WERE LEFT AS IS. A SOLSTICE STARTING
THE WINTER SEASON EARLIER OCCURRED AT 503 PM.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. A DECK OF MAINLY MVFR STRATUS
OVER THE REGION...WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN...MOSTLY NEAR/EAST OF KHSV LATE TONIGHT WILL ADD
TO THE WEATHER COMPLEXITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING MON...AS
A SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE SW. CIG LEVELS COULD LOWER TO LIFR LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS EAST OF I-65 WILL BE FROM THE SE 10-15KT.
LIGHT WINDS WEST OF I-65 WILL BECOME SE 5-10KT AFTER DAYBREAK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220538 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1138 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 918 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A SW-NE
FASHION OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS IN THE 130-140KT RANGE
AROUND 35KFT UP. UNDER THE JET...LOWER LEVEL STRATUS HAS RETURNED AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SE. THE EDGE OF THOSE CLOUDS HAVE
COVERED ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FAR NW ALABAMA. WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...A WEAK WAVE NEAR THE GULF COAST HAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO SW GEORGIA.

NEW OUTPUT FROM THE NAM/RAP INDICATED THAT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
AMOUNTS OF IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SLIM SIDE...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TEMPERED. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF EVENING AREAWIDE. BUT HAVE LEFT IT IN (AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE) FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND TERRAIN
WILL BRING BETTER ODDS FOR RAIN AFFECTING THOSE AREAS. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATER TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE...AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SW. OTHER MAIN PARAMETERS...AKA
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS/SKY COVER WERE LEFT AS IS. A SOLSTICE STARTING
THE WINTER SEASON EARLIER OCCURRED AT 503 PM.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. A DECK OF MAINLY MVFR STRATUS
OVER THE REGION...WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN...MOSTLY NEAR/EAST OF KHSV LATE TONIGHT WILL ADD
TO THE WEATHER COMPLEXITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING MON...AS
A SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE SW. CIG LEVELS COULD LOWER TO LIFR LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS EAST OF I-65 WILL BE FROM THE SE 10-15KT.
LIGHT WINDS WEST OF I-65 WILL BECOME SE 5-10KT AFTER DAYBREAK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220538 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1138 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 918 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A SW-NE
FASHION OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS IN THE 130-140KT RANGE
AROUND 35KFT UP. UNDER THE JET...LOWER LEVEL STRATUS HAS RETURNED AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SE. THE EDGE OF THOSE CLOUDS HAVE
COVERED ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FAR NW ALABAMA. WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...A WEAK WAVE NEAR THE GULF COAST HAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO SW GEORGIA.

NEW OUTPUT FROM THE NAM/RAP INDICATED THAT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
AMOUNTS OF IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SLIM SIDE...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TEMPERED. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF EVENING AREAWIDE. BUT HAVE LEFT IT IN (AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE) FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND TERRAIN
WILL BRING BETTER ODDS FOR RAIN AFFECTING THOSE AREAS. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATER TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE...AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SW. OTHER MAIN PARAMETERS...AKA
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS/SKY COVER WERE LEFT AS IS. A SOLSTICE STARTING
THE WINTER SEASON EARLIER OCCURRED AT 503 PM.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. A DECK OF MAINLY MVFR STRATUS
OVER THE REGION...WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN...MOSTLY NEAR/EAST OF KHSV LATE TONIGHT WILL ADD
TO THE WEATHER COMPLEXITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING MON...AS
A SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE SW. CIG LEVELS COULD LOWER TO LIFR LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS EAST OF I-65 WILL BE FROM THE SE 10-15KT.
LIGHT WINDS WEST OF I-65 WILL BECOME SE 5-10KT AFTER DAYBREAK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220538 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1138 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 918 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A SW-NE
FASHION OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS IN THE 130-140KT RANGE
AROUND 35KFT UP. UNDER THE JET...LOWER LEVEL STRATUS HAS RETURNED AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SE. THE EDGE OF THOSE CLOUDS HAVE
COVERED ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FAR NW ALABAMA. WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...A WEAK WAVE NEAR THE GULF COAST HAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO SW GEORGIA.

NEW OUTPUT FROM THE NAM/RAP INDICATED THAT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
AMOUNTS OF IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SLIM SIDE...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TEMPERED. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF EVENING AREAWIDE. BUT HAVE LEFT IT IN (AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE) FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND TERRAIN
WILL BRING BETTER ODDS FOR RAIN AFFECTING THOSE AREAS. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATER TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE...AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SW. OTHER MAIN PARAMETERS...AKA
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS/SKY COVER WERE LEFT AS IS. A SOLSTICE STARTING
THE WINTER SEASON EARLIER OCCURRED AT 503 PM.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. A DECK OF MAINLY MVFR STRATUS
OVER THE REGION...WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN...MOSTLY NEAR/EAST OF KHSV LATE TONIGHT WILL ADD
TO THE WEATHER COMPLEXITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING MON...AS
A SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE SW. CIG LEVELS COULD LOWER TO LIFR LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS EAST OF I-65 WILL BE FROM THE SE 10-15KT.
LIGHT WINDS WEST OF I-65 WILL BECOME SE 5-10KT AFTER DAYBREAK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 220530 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. OVERCAST SKIES
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MINS...AND
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT TEMP FCST CURVE NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED. PRIMARY
CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
RADAR STILL INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN IS OVER THE GULF
WATERS TO OUR SOUTH. AFTER GETTING A LOOK AT SOME OF THE INCOMING
22/00Z MODELS DATA...WE STILL BELIEVE THAT THIS PCPN WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN DEVELOPING AND
LIFTING INLAND FROM THE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. SO WILL NOT ADJUST
RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME EITHER...ALTHOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF A LITTLE LATER INTO THE NIGHT THAN EARLIER DISCUSSED.

.MARINE...HAD TO ADJUST WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA UPWARD JUST
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE. STILL BELOW SCEC LEVELS THOUGH. NO CHANGE IN SEAS. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

.AVIATION...22/06Z ISSUANCE...LIFR CIGS AND IFR SFC VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AT TIMES CONDITIONS MAY
VARY TO MVFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS SHOULD MAINTAIN
PREVAILING IFR...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE
IN THE DAY (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST). 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GA/AL/MS. LOOKING ALOFT...A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WAS AMPLIFYING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS
STATES...WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING FEATURE. AN AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OUR FORECAST AREA HAS
REMAINED RAIN FREE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY...BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR REGION. READINGS AT 3 PM CST MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...WITH SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING A BONAFIDE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING FEATURE INTO MONDAY. THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SHOULD SLOWLY
RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BECOMING ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF OR NEAR THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP INLAND LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE LEFT A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS INLAND AREAS INTO MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWFA.
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500
J/KG DOES SUPPORT INCLUDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE MONDAY. /21

HIGH LEVEL TROF SHARPENS OVER THE CENTRAL US MONDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG H30 JET STREAK (140 TO 150 KNOTS) DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN US. THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SEES AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/WEAKER JET
ENERGY TRANSLATING NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...STALLED FRONT WHICH
HAS BEEN DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...TRANSITIONS
TO A WARM FRONT AND WILL EASE CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT NEAR BY AND THE JET STREAK
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...ISENTROPIC LIFTING PROCESSES SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN. FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND WITH LOW LEVEL 850
MILLIBAR WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK...RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
TO BE LOW OVER THE LAND AREAS HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXCEPTION
COULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF WATERS CLOSER TO AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. STORMS APPROACHING AND MOVING ACROSS THE
WARM FRONT...COULD EXHIBIT SOME ROTATION BUT WILL QUICKLY BECOME
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. AT THIS TIME...PREDOMINANT
WEATHER MODE WILL BE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS MIXED IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS TO BE
MILD WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM 59 TO 64. /10

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE
POTENTIALLY THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT...LOW LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH...AS TO AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT. INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD VERY WELL ACT TO LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY. ALSO...IF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF STORMS
FORMS ON COASTAL WARM FRONT AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THIS COULD ALSO ACT TO
CUT OFF NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF INSTABILITY AND THUS LIMIT SEVERE CONVECTION.
OUT OF RESPECT FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT ALSO
CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
RISK IN SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION TO ANY SEVERE STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN AREAS SUBJECT
TO POOR DRAINAGE. THE PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND THE
LENGTHY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OF LATE...LOOKS TO
MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
A SMALL CHANCE OF POST FRONTAL RAINS LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE DRY AND COOL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. NEXT COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWER THIS WEEKEND FOR THIS FEATURE. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...TREND COOLER SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST ZONES AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST ZONES
SATURDAY TO LOWER TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH NIGHTS
WILL BE CHILLY...DO NOT SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME DURING
THE OUTLOOK. /10

AVIATION...
21.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR
LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST...WHILE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE
THE RULE FURTHER INLAND. CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL. /21

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP
ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 7
TO AS HIGH AS 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  69  62  70  54 /  30  30  50  90  90
PENSACOLA   54  68  63  70  61 /  40  40  50  90  90
DESTIN      56  68  64  70  63 /  50  40  50  90  90
EVERGREEN   49  68  60  70  57 /  30  40  50  90  90
WAYNESBORO  47  67  60  69  48 /  10  30  50  90  90
CAMDEN      48  67  59  71  53 /  20  30  40  90  90
CRESTVIEW   51  68  60  70  61 /  40  40  50  90  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 220530 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. OVERCAST SKIES
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MINS...AND
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT TEMP FCST CURVE NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED. PRIMARY
CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
RADAR STILL INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN IS OVER THE GULF
WATERS TO OUR SOUTH. AFTER GETTING A LOOK AT SOME OF THE INCOMING
22/00Z MODELS DATA...WE STILL BELIEVE THAT THIS PCPN WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN DEVELOPING AND
LIFTING INLAND FROM THE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. SO WILL NOT ADJUST
RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME EITHER...ALTHOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF A LITTLE LATER INTO THE NIGHT THAN EARLIER DISCUSSED.

.MARINE...HAD TO ADJUST WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA UPWARD JUST
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE. STILL BELOW SCEC LEVELS THOUGH. NO CHANGE IN SEAS. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

.AVIATION...22/06Z ISSUANCE...LIFR CIGS AND IFR SFC VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AT TIMES CONDITIONS MAY
VARY TO MVFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS SHOULD MAINTAIN
PREVAILING IFR...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE
IN THE DAY (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST). 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GA/AL/MS. LOOKING ALOFT...A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WAS AMPLIFYING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS
STATES...WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING FEATURE. AN AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OUR FORECAST AREA HAS
REMAINED RAIN FREE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY...BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR REGION. READINGS AT 3 PM CST MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...WITH SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING A BONAFIDE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING FEATURE INTO MONDAY. THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SHOULD SLOWLY
RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BECOMING ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF OR NEAR THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP INLAND LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE LEFT A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS INLAND AREAS INTO MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWFA.
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500
J/KG DOES SUPPORT INCLUDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE MONDAY. /21

HIGH LEVEL TROF SHARPENS OVER THE CENTRAL US MONDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG H30 JET STREAK (140 TO 150 KNOTS) DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN US. THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SEES AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/WEAKER JET
ENERGY TRANSLATING NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...STALLED FRONT WHICH
HAS BEEN DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...TRANSITIONS
TO A WARM FRONT AND WILL EASE CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT NEAR BY AND THE JET STREAK
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...ISENTROPIC LIFTING PROCESSES SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN. FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND WITH LOW LEVEL 850
MILLIBAR WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK...RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
TO BE LOW OVER THE LAND AREAS HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXCEPTION
COULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF WATERS CLOSER TO AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. STORMS APPROACHING AND MOVING ACROSS THE
WARM FRONT...COULD EXHIBIT SOME ROTATION BUT WILL QUICKLY BECOME
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. AT THIS TIME...PREDOMINANT
WEATHER MODE WILL BE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS MIXED IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS TO BE
MILD WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM 59 TO 64. /10

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE
POTENTIALLY THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT...LOW LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH...AS TO AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT. INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD VERY WELL ACT TO LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY. ALSO...IF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF STORMS
FORMS ON COASTAL WARM FRONT AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THIS COULD ALSO ACT TO
CUT OFF NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF INSTABILITY AND THUS LIMIT SEVERE CONVECTION.
OUT OF RESPECT FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT ALSO
CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
RISK IN SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION TO ANY SEVERE STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN AREAS SUBJECT
TO POOR DRAINAGE. THE PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND THE
LENGTHY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OF LATE...LOOKS TO
MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
A SMALL CHANCE OF POST FRONTAL RAINS LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE DRY AND COOL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. NEXT COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWER THIS WEEKEND FOR THIS FEATURE. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...TREND COOLER SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST ZONES AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST ZONES
SATURDAY TO LOWER TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH NIGHTS
WILL BE CHILLY...DO NOT SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME DURING
THE OUTLOOK. /10

AVIATION...
21.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR
LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST...WHILE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE
THE RULE FURTHER INLAND. CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL. /21

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP
ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 7
TO AS HIGH AS 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  69  62  70  54 /  30  30  50  90  90
PENSACOLA   54  68  63  70  61 /  40  40  50  90  90
DESTIN      56  68  64  70  63 /  50  40  50  90  90
EVERGREEN   49  68  60  70  57 /  30  40  50  90  90
WAYNESBORO  47  67  60  69  48 /  10  30  50  90  90
CAMDEN      48  67  59  71  53 /  20  30  40  90  90
CRESTVIEW   51  68  60  70  61 /  40  40  50  90  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 220423
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1023 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A RATHER DEEP LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY UNTIL CHRISTMAS. THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WAS VERY LIGHT AND NOT MEASURING...BUT
CERTAINLY HELPING THICKEN AND LOWER THE CLOUDS. ACTUALLY DECREASED
MEASURABLE POPS OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY BUMPING IT EASTWARD. BUT DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE TO ALL PLACES BUT FAR NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL COMBINE TO DROP
VISIBILITIES IN SPOTS TO 1 MILE OR LESS. ADDED THIS MENTION INTO
THE HWO AND FORECAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND RAISED
LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL INDICATING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE ON THAT IN A FEW HOURS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO INCREASINGLY LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRPORTS THAT
ARE MVFR EARLY ON SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET DOWN TO IFR. THOSE THAT
ARE IFR EARLY (MAINLY TOI) MAY GO LIFR. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WON`T IMPROVE MUCH IF AT ALL DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 322 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET ALABAMA DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A
ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON MONDAY..BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND BRING A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEST ALABAMA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ELONGATE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF BY
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS DIGGING TROF
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS WE ARE KEEPING
THE THREAT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM AND THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR AND LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER 60S INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIMITED
CAPE AND ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ANY UPWARD HEIGHT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
GEORGIA BY THAT TIME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE FALLING OR REMAIN STEADY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. CHRISTMAS DAY MAY BE THE
FIRST DAY THIS WEEK WE EXPERIENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     45  57  49  62  55 /  20  30  50  90  90
ANNISTON    46  58  51  65  57 /  20  30  50  90  90
BIRMINGHAM  47  60  57  65  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  47  62  57  67  49 /  10  30  60  90  80
CALERA      46  61  54  66  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
AUBURN      45  58  53  64  57 /  30  40  50  90  90
MONTGOMERY  48  64  56  69  58 /  20  30  50  90  80
TROY        49  63  57  68  58 /  30  40  50  90  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 220423
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1023 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A RATHER DEEP LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY UNTIL CHRISTMAS. THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WAS VERY LIGHT AND NOT MEASURING...BUT
CERTAINLY HELPING THICKEN AND LOWER THE CLOUDS. ACTUALLY DECREASED
MEASURABLE POPS OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY BUMPING IT EASTWARD. BUT DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE TO ALL PLACES BUT FAR NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL COMBINE TO DROP
VISIBILITIES IN SPOTS TO 1 MILE OR LESS. ADDED THIS MENTION INTO
THE HWO AND FORECAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND RAISED
LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL INDICATING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE ON THAT IN A FEW HOURS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO INCREASINGLY LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRPORTS THAT
ARE MVFR EARLY ON SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET DOWN TO IFR. THOSE THAT
ARE IFR EARLY (MAINLY TOI) MAY GO LIFR. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WON`T IMPROVE MUCH IF AT ALL DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 322 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET ALABAMA DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A
ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON MONDAY..BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND BRING A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEST ALABAMA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ELONGATE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF BY
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS DIGGING TROF
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS WE ARE KEEPING
THE THREAT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM AND THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR AND LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER 60S INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIMITED
CAPE AND ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ANY UPWARD HEIGHT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
GEORGIA BY THAT TIME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE FALLING OR REMAIN STEADY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. CHRISTMAS DAY MAY BE THE
FIRST DAY THIS WEEK WE EXPERIENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     45  57  49  62  55 /  20  30  50  90  90
ANNISTON    46  58  51  65  57 /  20  30  50  90  90
BIRMINGHAM  47  60  57  65  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  47  62  57  67  49 /  10  30  60  90  80
CALERA      46  61  54  66  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
AUBURN      45  58  53  64  57 /  30  40  50  90  90
MONTGOMERY  48  64  56  69  58 /  20  30  50  90  80
TROY        49  63  57  68  58 /  30  40  50  90  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 220423
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1023 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A RATHER DEEP LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY UNTIL CHRISTMAS. THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WAS VERY LIGHT AND NOT MEASURING...BUT
CERTAINLY HELPING THICKEN AND LOWER THE CLOUDS. ACTUALLY DECREASED
MEASURABLE POPS OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY BUMPING IT EASTWARD. BUT DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE TO ALL PLACES BUT FAR NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL COMBINE TO DROP
VISIBILITIES IN SPOTS TO 1 MILE OR LESS. ADDED THIS MENTION INTO
THE HWO AND FORECAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND RAISED
LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL INDICATING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE ON THAT IN A FEW HOURS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO INCREASINGLY LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRPORTS THAT
ARE MVFR EARLY ON SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET DOWN TO IFR. THOSE THAT
ARE IFR EARLY (MAINLY TOI) MAY GO LIFR. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WON`T IMPROVE MUCH IF AT ALL DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 322 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET ALABAMA DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A
ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON MONDAY..BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND BRING A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEST ALABAMA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ELONGATE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF BY
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS DIGGING TROF
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS WE ARE KEEPING
THE THREAT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM AND THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR AND LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER 60S INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIMITED
CAPE AND ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ANY UPWARD HEIGHT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
GEORGIA BY THAT TIME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE FALLING OR REMAIN STEADY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. CHRISTMAS DAY MAY BE THE
FIRST DAY THIS WEEK WE EXPERIENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     45  57  49  62  55 /  20  30  50  90  90
ANNISTON    46  58  51  65  57 /  20  30  50  90  90
BIRMINGHAM  47  60  57  65  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  47  62  57  67  49 /  10  30  60  90  80
CALERA      46  61  54  66  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
AUBURN      45  58  53  64  57 /  30  40  50  90  90
MONTGOMERY  48  64  56  69  58 /  20  30  50  90  80
TROY        49  63  57  68  58 /  30  40  50  90  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 220423
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1023 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A RATHER DEEP LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY UNTIL CHRISTMAS. THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WAS VERY LIGHT AND NOT MEASURING...BUT
CERTAINLY HELPING THICKEN AND LOWER THE CLOUDS. ACTUALLY DECREASED
MEASURABLE POPS OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY BUMPING IT EASTWARD. BUT DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE TO ALL PLACES BUT FAR NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL COMBINE TO DROP
VISIBILITIES IN SPOTS TO 1 MILE OR LESS. ADDED THIS MENTION INTO
THE HWO AND FORECAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND RAISED
LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL INDICATING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE ON THAT IN A FEW HOURS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO INCREASINGLY LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRPORTS THAT
ARE MVFR EARLY ON SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET DOWN TO IFR. THOSE THAT
ARE IFR EARLY (MAINLY TOI) MAY GO LIFR. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WON`T IMPROVE MUCH IF AT ALL DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 322 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET ALABAMA DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A
ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON MONDAY..BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND BRING A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEST ALABAMA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ELONGATE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF BY
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS DIGGING TROF
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS WE ARE KEEPING
THE THREAT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM AND THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR AND LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER 60S INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIMITED
CAPE AND ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ANY UPWARD HEIGHT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
GEORGIA BY THAT TIME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE FALLING OR REMAIN STEADY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. CHRISTMAS DAY MAY BE THE
FIRST DAY THIS WEEK WE EXPERIENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     45  57  49  62  55 /  20  30  50  90  90
ANNISTON    46  58  51  65  57 /  20  30  50  90  90
BIRMINGHAM  47  60  57  65  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  47  62  57  67  49 /  10  30  60  90  80
CALERA      46  61  54  66  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
AUBURN      45  58  53  64  57 /  30  40  50  90  90
MONTGOMERY  48  64  56  69  58 /  20  30  50  90  80
TROY        49  63  57  68  58 /  30  40  50  90  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 220318 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED PRECIP MENTION THIS EVENING ALL AREAS...BUT LEFT IT IN FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A SW-NE
FASHION OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS IN THE 130-140KT RANGE
AROUND 35KFT UP. UNDER THE JET...LOWER LEVEL STRATUS HAS RETURNED AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SE. THE EDGE OF THOSE CLOUDS HAVE
COVERED ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FAR NW ALABAMA. WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...A WEAK WAVE NEAR THE GULF COAST HAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO SW GEORGIA.

NEW OUTPUT FROM THE NAM/RAP INDICATED THAT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
AMOUNTS OF IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SLIM SIDE...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TEMPERED. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF EVENING AREAWIDE. BUT HAVE LEFT IT IN (AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE) FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND TERRAIN
WILL BRING BETTER ODDS FOR RAIN AFFECTING THOSE AREAS. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATER TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE...AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SW. OTHER MAIN PARAMETERS...AKA
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS/SKY COVER WERE LEFT AS IS. A SOLSTICE STARTING
THE WINTER SEASON EARLIER OCCURRED AT 503 PM.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 543 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
STRATUS...MAINLY ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK SYSTEM FORMING TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN CIGS BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY
BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS...LIGHT DRIZZLE SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM
MAINLY EAST/SOUTH OF THIS AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM NEARING FROM THE WEST
COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST FOR KMSL.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SELY. THE MOISTENING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS SOME -RA IN OUR SERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER WILL DEPART RAPIDLY.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES QUICKLY FOLLOW BEHIND AS EARLY AS MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD INSTIGATE A FEW SHRA, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-
SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION THRU OUR AREA. A CAD
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED MOISTURE INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWER
AND STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER, THE RRQ UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
AND RESULTANT LLJ WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AT
925-850MB LAYER INTO THE REGION. EVENTUALLY, SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL THIS POINTS TO A
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR PROLONGED BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE
ECHO TRAINING DUE TO A HIGHLY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IN MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS COULD ELEVATE A FEW CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING ATTM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RATHER MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MUCH CAPE, AND THUS RESULTANT SHERBE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY BELOW 1 UNIT IN OUR AREA GIVING A LOWER
CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANT HSLC SEVERE CONVECTION.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
BOMBOGENESIS TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES RAPIDLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TN VALLEY. WE HAVE
KEPT A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN OUR SRN TN AND NERN AL COUNTIES, BUT THIS REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT BEST WITH PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE ABOVE THE -5C ISOTHERM LEVEL. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS IN THIS SITUATION.

WILL FOLLOW BLENDS CLOSELY D5-7. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS LIKE A SUNNY
AND CALM WEATHER DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SKIRTS THRU BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF, SO PLAN TO HOLD ONTO LOW CHC POPS THRU D6. THEN UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO VENTURE OUT WITH PRECIP AT DAY 7.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220318 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED PRECIP MENTION THIS EVENING ALL AREAS...BUT LEFT IT IN FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A SW-NE
FASHION OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS IN THE 130-140KT RANGE
AROUND 35KFT UP. UNDER THE JET...LOWER LEVEL STRATUS HAS RETURNED AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SE. THE EDGE OF THOSE CLOUDS HAVE
COVERED ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FAR NW ALABAMA. WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...A WEAK WAVE NEAR THE GULF COAST HAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO SW GEORGIA.

NEW OUTPUT FROM THE NAM/RAP INDICATED THAT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
AMOUNTS OF IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SLIM SIDE...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TEMPERED. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF EVENING AREAWIDE. BUT HAVE LEFT IT IN (AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE) FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND TERRAIN
WILL BRING BETTER ODDS FOR RAIN AFFECTING THOSE AREAS. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATER TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE...AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SW. OTHER MAIN PARAMETERS...AKA
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS/SKY COVER WERE LEFT AS IS. A SOLSTICE STARTING
THE WINTER SEASON EARLIER OCCURRED AT 503 PM.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 543 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
STRATUS...MAINLY ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK SYSTEM FORMING TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN CIGS BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY
BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS...LIGHT DRIZZLE SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM
MAINLY EAST/SOUTH OF THIS AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM NEARING FROM THE WEST
COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST FOR KMSL.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SELY. THE MOISTENING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS SOME -RA IN OUR SERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER WILL DEPART RAPIDLY.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES QUICKLY FOLLOW BEHIND AS EARLY AS MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD INSTIGATE A FEW SHRA, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-
SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION THRU OUR AREA. A CAD
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED MOISTURE INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWER
AND STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER, THE RRQ UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
AND RESULTANT LLJ WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AT
925-850MB LAYER INTO THE REGION. EVENTUALLY, SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL THIS POINTS TO A
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR PROLONGED BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE
ECHO TRAINING DUE TO A HIGHLY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IN MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS COULD ELEVATE A FEW CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING ATTM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RATHER MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MUCH CAPE, AND THUS RESULTANT SHERBE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY BELOW 1 UNIT IN OUR AREA GIVING A LOWER
CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANT HSLC SEVERE CONVECTION.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
BOMBOGENESIS TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES RAPIDLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TN VALLEY. WE HAVE
KEPT A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN OUR SRN TN AND NERN AL COUNTIES, BUT THIS REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT BEST WITH PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE ABOVE THE -5C ISOTHERM LEVEL. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS IN THIS SITUATION.

WILL FOLLOW BLENDS CLOSELY D5-7. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS LIKE A SUNNY
AND CALM WEATHER DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SKIRTS THRU BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF, SO PLAN TO HOLD ONTO LOW CHC POPS THRU D6. THEN UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO VENTURE OUT WITH PRECIP AT DAY 7.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220318 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED PRECIP MENTION THIS EVENING ALL AREAS...BUT LEFT IT IN FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A SW-NE
FASHION OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS IN THE 130-140KT RANGE
AROUND 35KFT UP. UNDER THE JET...LOWER LEVEL STRATUS HAS RETURNED AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SE. THE EDGE OF THOSE CLOUDS HAVE
COVERED ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FAR NW ALABAMA. WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...A WEAK WAVE NEAR THE GULF COAST HAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO SW GEORGIA.

NEW OUTPUT FROM THE NAM/RAP INDICATED THAT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
AMOUNTS OF IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SLIM SIDE...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TEMPERED. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF EVENING AREAWIDE. BUT HAVE LEFT IT IN (AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE) FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND TERRAIN
WILL BRING BETTER ODDS FOR RAIN AFFECTING THOSE AREAS. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATER TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE...AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SW. OTHER MAIN PARAMETERS...AKA
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS/SKY COVER WERE LEFT AS IS. A SOLSTICE STARTING
THE WINTER SEASON EARLIER OCCURRED AT 503 PM.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 543 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
STRATUS...MAINLY ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK SYSTEM FORMING TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN CIGS BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY
BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS...LIGHT DRIZZLE SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM
MAINLY EAST/SOUTH OF THIS AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM NEARING FROM THE WEST
COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST FOR KMSL.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SELY. THE MOISTENING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS SOME -RA IN OUR SERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER WILL DEPART RAPIDLY.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES QUICKLY FOLLOW BEHIND AS EARLY AS MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD INSTIGATE A FEW SHRA, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-
SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION THRU OUR AREA. A CAD
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED MOISTURE INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWER
AND STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER, THE RRQ UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
AND RESULTANT LLJ WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AT
925-850MB LAYER INTO THE REGION. EVENTUALLY, SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL THIS POINTS TO A
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR PROLONGED BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE
ECHO TRAINING DUE TO A HIGHLY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IN MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS COULD ELEVATE A FEW CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING ATTM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RATHER MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MUCH CAPE, AND THUS RESULTANT SHERBE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY BELOW 1 UNIT IN OUR AREA GIVING A LOWER
CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANT HSLC SEVERE CONVECTION.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
BOMBOGENESIS TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES RAPIDLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TN VALLEY. WE HAVE
KEPT A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN OUR SRN TN AND NERN AL COUNTIES, BUT THIS REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT BEST WITH PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE ABOVE THE -5C ISOTHERM LEVEL. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS IN THIS SITUATION.

WILL FOLLOW BLENDS CLOSELY D5-7. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS LIKE A SUNNY
AND CALM WEATHER DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SKIRTS THRU BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF, SO PLAN TO HOLD ONTO LOW CHC POPS THRU D6. THEN UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO VENTURE OUT WITH PRECIP AT DAY 7.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 220318 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED PRECIP MENTION THIS EVENING ALL AREAS...BUT LEFT IT IN FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A SW-NE
FASHION OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS IN THE 130-140KT RANGE
AROUND 35KFT UP. UNDER THE JET...LOWER LEVEL STRATUS HAS RETURNED AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SE. THE EDGE OF THOSE CLOUDS HAVE
COVERED ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FAR NW ALABAMA. WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...A WEAK WAVE NEAR THE GULF COAST HAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO SW GEORGIA.

NEW OUTPUT FROM THE NAM/RAP INDICATED THAT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
AMOUNTS OF IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SLIM SIDE...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TEMPERED. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF EVENING AREAWIDE. BUT HAVE LEFT IT IN (AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE) FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND TERRAIN
WILL BRING BETTER ODDS FOR RAIN AFFECTING THOSE AREAS. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATER TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE...AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SW. OTHER MAIN PARAMETERS...AKA
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS/SKY COVER WERE LEFT AS IS. A SOLSTICE STARTING
THE WINTER SEASON EARLIER OCCURRED AT 503 PM.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 543 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
STRATUS...MAINLY ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK SYSTEM FORMING TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN CIGS BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY
BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS...LIGHT DRIZZLE SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM
MAINLY EAST/SOUTH OF THIS AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM NEARING FROM THE WEST
COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST FOR KMSL.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SELY. THE MOISTENING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS SOME -RA IN OUR SERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER WILL DEPART RAPIDLY.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES QUICKLY FOLLOW BEHIND AS EARLY AS MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD INSTIGATE A FEW SHRA, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-
SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION THRU OUR AREA. A CAD
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED MOISTURE INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWER
AND STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER, THE RRQ UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
AND RESULTANT LLJ WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AT
925-850MB LAYER INTO THE REGION. EVENTUALLY, SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL THIS POINTS TO A
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR PROLONGED BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE
ECHO TRAINING DUE TO A HIGHLY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IN MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS COULD ELEVATE A FEW CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING ATTM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RATHER MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MUCH CAPE, AND THUS RESULTANT SHERBE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY BELOW 1 UNIT IN OUR AREA GIVING A LOWER
CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANT HSLC SEVERE CONVECTION.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
BOMBOGENESIS TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES RAPIDLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TN VALLEY. WE HAVE
KEPT A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN OUR SRN TN AND NERN AL COUNTIES, BUT THIS REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT BEST WITH PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE ABOVE THE -5C ISOTHERM LEVEL. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS IN THIS SITUATION.

WILL FOLLOW BLENDS CLOSELY D5-7. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS LIKE A SUNNY
AND CALM WEATHER DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SKIRTS THRU BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF, SO PLAN TO HOLD ONTO LOW CHC POPS THRU D6. THEN UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO VENTURE OUT WITH PRECIP AT DAY 7.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 212359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET ALABAMA DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A
ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON MONDAY..BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND BRING A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEST ALABAMA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ELONGATE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF BY
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS DIGGING TROF
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS WE ARE KEEPING
THE THREAT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM AND THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR AND LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER 60S INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIMITED
CAPE AND ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ANY UPWARD HEIGHT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
GEORGIA BY THAT TIME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE FALLING OR REMAIN STEADY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. CHRISTMAS DAY MAY BE THE
FIRST DAY THIS WEEK WE EXPERIENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO INCREASINGLY LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRPORTS THAT
ARE MVFR EARLY ON SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET DOWN TO IFR. THOSE THAT
ARE IFR EARLY (MAINLY TOI) MAY GO LIFR. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WON`T IMPROVE MUCH IF AT ALL DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 212359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET ALABAMA DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A
ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON MONDAY..BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND BRING A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEST ALABAMA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ELONGATE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF BY
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS DIGGING TROF
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS WE ARE KEEPING
THE THREAT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM AND THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR AND LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER 60S INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIMITED
CAPE AND ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ANY UPWARD HEIGHT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
GEORGIA BY THAT TIME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE FALLING OR REMAIN STEADY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. CHRISTMAS DAY MAY BE THE
FIRST DAY THIS WEEK WE EXPERIENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO INCREASINGLY LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRPORTS THAT
ARE MVFR EARLY ON SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET DOWN TO IFR. THOSE THAT
ARE IFR EARLY (MAINLY TOI) MAY GO LIFR. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WON`T IMPROVE MUCH IF AT ALL DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 212359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET ALABAMA DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A
ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON MONDAY..BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND BRING A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEST ALABAMA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ELONGATE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF BY
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS DIGGING TROF
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS WE ARE KEEPING
THE THREAT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM AND THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR AND LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER 60S INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIMITED
CAPE AND ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ANY UPWARD HEIGHT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
GEORGIA BY THAT TIME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE FALLING OR REMAIN STEADY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. CHRISTMAS DAY MAY BE THE
FIRST DAY THIS WEEK WE EXPERIENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO INCREASINGLY LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRPORTS THAT
ARE MVFR EARLY ON SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET DOWN TO IFR. THOSE THAT
ARE IFR EARLY (MAINLY TOI) MAY GO LIFR. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WON`T IMPROVE MUCH IF AT ALL DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 212343 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SELY. THE MOISTENING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS SOME -RA IN OUR SERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER WILL DEPART RAPIDLY.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES QUICKLY FOLLOW BEHIND AS EARLY AS MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD INSTIGATE A FEW SHRA, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-
SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION THRU OUR AREA. A CAD
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED MOISTURE INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWER
AND STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER, THE RRQ UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
AND RESULTANT LLJ WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AT
925-850MB LAYER INTO THE REGION. EVENTUALLY, SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL THIS POINTS TO A
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR PROLONGED BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE
ECHO TRAINING DUE TO A HIGHLY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IN MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS COULD ELEVATE A FEW CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING ATTM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RATHER MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MUCH CAPE, AND THUS RESULTANT SHERBE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY BELOW 1 UNIT IN OUR AREA GIVING A LOWER
CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANT HSLC SEVERE CONVECTION.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
BOMBOGENESIS TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES RAPIDLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TN VALLEY. WE HAVE
KEPT A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN OUR SRN TN AND NERN AL COUNTIES, BUT THIS REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT BEST WITH PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE ABOVE THE -5C ISOTHERM LEVEL. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS IN THIS SITUATION.

WILL FOLLOW BLENDS CLOSELY D5-7. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS LIKE A SUNNY
AND CALM WEATHER DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SKIRTS THRU BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF, SO PLAN TO HOLD ONTO LOW CHC POPS THRU D6. THEN UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO VENTURE OUT WITH PRECIP AT DAY 7.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
STRATUS...MAINLY ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK SYSTEM FORMING TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN CIGS BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY
BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS...LIGHT DRIZZLE SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM
MAINLY EAST/SOUTH OF THIS AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM NEARING FROM THE WEST
COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST FOR KMSL.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 212343 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SELY. THE MOISTENING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS SOME -RA IN OUR SERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER WILL DEPART RAPIDLY.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES QUICKLY FOLLOW BEHIND AS EARLY AS MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD INSTIGATE A FEW SHRA, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-
SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION THRU OUR AREA. A CAD
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED MOISTURE INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWER
AND STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER, THE RRQ UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
AND RESULTANT LLJ WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AT
925-850MB LAYER INTO THE REGION. EVENTUALLY, SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL THIS POINTS TO A
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR PROLONGED BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE
ECHO TRAINING DUE TO A HIGHLY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IN MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS COULD ELEVATE A FEW CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING ATTM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RATHER MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MUCH CAPE, AND THUS RESULTANT SHERBE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY BELOW 1 UNIT IN OUR AREA GIVING A LOWER
CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANT HSLC SEVERE CONVECTION.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
BOMBOGENESIS TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES RAPIDLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TN VALLEY. WE HAVE
KEPT A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN OUR SRN TN AND NERN AL COUNTIES, BUT THIS REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT BEST WITH PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE ABOVE THE -5C ISOTHERM LEVEL. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS IN THIS SITUATION.

WILL FOLLOW BLENDS CLOSELY D5-7. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS LIKE A SUNNY
AND CALM WEATHER DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SKIRTS THRU BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF, SO PLAN TO HOLD ONTO LOW CHC POPS THRU D6. THEN UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO VENTURE OUT WITH PRECIP AT DAY 7.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
STRATUS...MAINLY ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK SYSTEM FORMING TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN CIGS BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY
BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS...LIGHT DRIZZLE SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM
MAINLY EAST/SOUTH OF THIS AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM NEARING FROM THE WEST
COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST FOR KMSL.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 212203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GA/AL/MS. LOOKING ALOFT...A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WAS AMPLIFYING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS
STATES...WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING FEATURE. AN AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OUR FORECAST AREA HAS
REMAINED RAIN FREE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY...BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR REGION. READINGS AT 3 PM CST MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...WITH SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING A BONAFIDE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING FEATURE INTO MONDAY. THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SHOULD SLOWLY
RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BECOMING ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF OR NEAR THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP INLAND LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE LEFT A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS INLAND AREAS INTO MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWFA.
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500
J/KG DOES SUPPORT INCLUDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE MONDAY. /21

HIGH LEVEL TROF SHARPENS OVER THE CENTRAL US MONDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG H30 JET STREAK (140 TO 150 KNOTS) DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN US. THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SEES AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/WEAKER JET
ENERGY TRANSLATING NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...STALLED FRONT WHICH
HAS BEEN DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...TRANSITIONS
TO A WARM FRONT AND WILL EASE CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT NEAR BY AND THE JET STREAK
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...ISENTROPIC LIFTING PROCESSES SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN. FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND WITH LOW LEVEL 850
MILLIBAR WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK...RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
TO BE LOW OVER THE LAND AREAS HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXCEPTION
COULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF WATERS CLOSER TO AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. STORMS APPROACHING AND MOVING ACROSS THE
WARM FRONT...COULD EXHIBIT SOME ROTATION BUT WILL QUICKLY BECOME
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. AT THIS TIME...PREDOMINANT
WEATHER MODE WILL BE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS MIXED IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS TO BE
MILD WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM 59 TO 64. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE
POTENTIALLY THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT...LOW LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH...AS TO AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT. INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD VERY WELL ACT TO LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY. ALSO...IF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF STORMS
FORMS ON COASTAL WARM FRONT AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THIS COULD ALSO ACT TO
CUT OFF NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF INSTABILITY AND THUS LIMIT SEVERE CONVECTION.
OUT OF RESPECT FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT ALSO
CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
RISK IN SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION TO ANY SEVERE STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN AREAS SUBJECT
TO POOR DRAINAGE. THE PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND THE
LENGTHY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OF LATE...LOOKS TO
MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
A SMALL CHANCE OF POST FRONTAL RAINS LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE DRY AND COOL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. NEXT COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWER THIS WEEKEND FOR THIS FEATURE. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...TREND COOLER SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST ZONES AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST ZONES
SATURDAY TO LOWER TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH NIGHTS
WILL BE CHILLY...DO NOT SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME DURING
THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
21.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR
LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST...WHILE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE
THE RULE FURTHER INLAND. CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL. /21

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP
ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 7
TO AS HIGH AS 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  69  62  70  54 /  30  30  50  90  90
PENSACOLA   54  68  63  70  61 /  40  40  50  90  90
DESTIN      56  68  64  70  63 /  50  40  50  90  90
EVERGREEN   49  68  60  70  57 /  30  40  50  90  90
WAYNESBORO  47  67  60  69  48 /  10  30  50  90  90
CAMDEN      48  67  59  71  53 /  20  30  40  90  90
CRESTVIEW   51  68  60  70  61 /  40  40  50  90  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 212203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GA/AL/MS. LOOKING ALOFT...A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WAS AMPLIFYING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS
STATES...WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING FEATURE. AN AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OUR FORECAST AREA HAS
REMAINED RAIN FREE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY...BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR REGION. READINGS AT 3 PM CST MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...WITH SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING A BONAFIDE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING FEATURE INTO MONDAY. THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SHOULD SLOWLY
RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BECOMING ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF OR NEAR THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP INLAND LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE LEFT A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS INLAND AREAS INTO MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWFA.
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500
J/KG DOES SUPPORT INCLUDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE MONDAY. /21

HIGH LEVEL TROF SHARPENS OVER THE CENTRAL US MONDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG H30 JET STREAK (140 TO 150 KNOTS) DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN US. THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SEES AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/WEAKER JET
ENERGY TRANSLATING NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...STALLED FRONT WHICH
HAS BEEN DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...TRANSITIONS
TO A WARM FRONT AND WILL EASE CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT NEAR BY AND THE JET STREAK
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...ISENTROPIC LIFTING PROCESSES SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN. FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND WITH LOW LEVEL 850
MILLIBAR WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK...RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
TO BE LOW OVER THE LAND AREAS HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXCEPTION
COULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF WATERS CLOSER TO AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. STORMS APPROACHING AND MOVING ACROSS THE
WARM FRONT...COULD EXHIBIT SOME ROTATION BUT WILL QUICKLY BECOME
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. AT THIS TIME...PREDOMINANT
WEATHER MODE WILL BE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS MIXED IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS TO BE
MILD WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM 59 TO 64. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE
POTENTIALLY THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT...LOW LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH...AS TO AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT. INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD VERY WELL ACT TO LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY. ALSO...IF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF STORMS
FORMS ON COASTAL WARM FRONT AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THIS COULD ALSO ACT TO
CUT OFF NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF INSTABILITY AND THUS LIMIT SEVERE CONVECTION.
OUT OF RESPECT FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT ALSO
CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
RISK IN SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION TO ANY SEVERE STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN AREAS SUBJECT
TO POOR DRAINAGE. THE PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND THE
LENGTHY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OF LATE...LOOKS TO
MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
A SMALL CHANCE OF POST FRONTAL RAINS LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE DRY AND COOL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. NEXT COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWER THIS WEEKEND FOR THIS FEATURE. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...TREND COOLER SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST ZONES AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST ZONES
SATURDAY TO LOWER TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH NIGHTS
WILL BE CHILLY...DO NOT SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME DURING
THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
21.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR
LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST...WHILE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE
THE RULE FURTHER INLAND. CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL. /21

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP
ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 7
TO AS HIGH AS 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  69  62  70  54 /  30  30  50  90  90
PENSACOLA   54  68  63  70  61 /  40  40  50  90  90
DESTIN      56  68  64  70  63 /  50  40  50  90  90
EVERGREEN   49  68  60  70  57 /  30  40  50  90  90
WAYNESBORO  47  67  60  69  48 /  10  30  50  90  90
CAMDEN      48  67  59  71  53 /  20  30  40  90  90
CRESTVIEW   51  68  60  70  61 /  40  40  50  90  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 212122
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET ALABAMA DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A
ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON MONDAY..BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND BRING A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEST ALABAMA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ELONGATE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF BY
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS DIGGING TROF
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS WE ARE KEEPING
THE THREAT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM AND THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR AND LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER 60S INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIMITED
CAPE AND ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ANY UPWARD HEIGHT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
GEORGIA BY THAT TIME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE FALLING OR REMAIN STEADY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. CHRISTMAS DAY MAY BE THE
FIRST DAY THIS WEEK WE EXPERIENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY.

58/ROSE


&&


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW IFR TO MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN TONIGHT. CIGS
COULD RISE A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
AND IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     42  56  49  62  55 /  20  30  50  90  90
ANNISTON    43  57  51  65  57 /  20  30  50  90  90
BIRMINGHAM  45  59  57  65  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  45  61  57  67  49 /  10  30  60  90  80
CALERA      45  60  54  66  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
AUBURN      44  57  53  64  57 /  30  40  50  90  90
MONTGOMERY  46  63  56  69  58 /  30  30  50  90  80
TROY        46  62  57  68  58 /  30  40  50  90  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 212122
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET ALABAMA DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A
ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON MONDAY..BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND BRING A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEST ALABAMA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ELONGATE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF BY
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS DIGGING TROF
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS WE ARE KEEPING
THE THREAT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM AND THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR AND LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER 60S INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIMITED
CAPE AND ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ANY UPWARD HEIGHT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
GEORGIA BY THAT TIME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE FALLING OR REMAIN STEADY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. CHRISTMAS DAY MAY BE THE
FIRST DAY THIS WEEK WE EXPERIENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY.

58/ROSE


&&


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW IFR TO MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN TONIGHT. CIGS
COULD RISE A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
AND IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     42  56  49  62  55 /  20  30  50  90  90
ANNISTON    43  57  51  65  57 /  20  30  50  90  90
BIRMINGHAM  45  59  57  65  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  45  61  57  67  49 /  10  30  60  90  80
CALERA      45  60  54  66  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
AUBURN      44  57  53  64  57 /  30  40  50  90  90
MONTGOMERY  46  63  56  69  58 /  30  30  50  90  80
TROY        46  62  57  68  58 /  30  40  50  90  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 212122
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET ALABAMA DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A
ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON MONDAY..BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND BRING A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEST ALABAMA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ELONGATE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF BY
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS DIGGING TROF
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS WE ARE KEEPING
THE THREAT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM AND THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR AND LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER 60S INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIMITED
CAPE AND ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ANY UPWARD HEIGHT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
GEORGIA BY THAT TIME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE FALLING OR REMAIN STEADY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. CHRISTMAS DAY MAY BE THE
FIRST DAY THIS WEEK WE EXPERIENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY.

58/ROSE


&&


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW IFR TO MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN TONIGHT. CIGS
COULD RISE A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
AND IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     42  56  49  62  55 /  20  30  50  90  90
ANNISTON    43  57  51  65  57 /  20  30  50  90  90
BIRMINGHAM  45  59  57  65  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  45  61  57  67  49 /  10  30  60  90  80
CALERA      45  60  54  66  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
AUBURN      44  57  53  64  57 /  30  40  50  90  90
MONTGOMERY  46  63  56  69  58 /  30  30  50  90  80
TROY        46  62  57  68  58 /  30  40  50  90  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 212122
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET ALABAMA DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A
ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON MONDAY..BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND BRING A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEST ALABAMA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ELONGATE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF BY
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS DIGGING TROF
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS WE ARE KEEPING
THE THREAT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM AND THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR AND LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER 60S INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIMITED
CAPE AND ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ANY UPWARD HEIGHT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
GEORGIA BY THAT TIME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE FALLING OR REMAIN STEADY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. CHRISTMAS DAY MAY BE THE
FIRST DAY THIS WEEK WE EXPERIENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY.

58/ROSE


&&


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW IFR TO MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN TONIGHT. CIGS
COULD RISE A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
AND IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     42  56  49  62  55 /  20  30  50  90  90
ANNISTON    43  57  51  65  57 /  20  30  50  90  90
BIRMINGHAM  45  59  57  65  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  45  61  57  67  49 /  10  30  60  90  80
CALERA      45  60  54  66  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
AUBURN      44  57  53  64  57 /  30  40  50  90  90
MONTGOMERY  46  63  56  69  58 /  30  30  50  90  80
TROY        46  62  57  68  58 /  30  40  50  90  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 211945
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SELY. THE MOISTENING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS SOME -RA IN OUR SERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER WILL DEPART RAPIDLY.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES QUICKLY FOLLOW BEHIND AS EARLY AS MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD INSTIGATE A FEW SHRA, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-
SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION THRU OUR AREA. A CAD
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED MOISTURE INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWER
AND STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER, THE RRQ UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
AND RESULTANT LLJ WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AT
925-850MB LAYER INTO THE REGION. EVENTUALLY, SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL THIS POINTS TO A
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR PROLONGED BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE
ECHO TRAINING DUE TO A HIGHLY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IN MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS COULD ELEVATE A FEW CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING ATTM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RATHER MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MUCH CAPE, AND THUS RESULTANT SHERBE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY BELOW 1 UNIT IN OUR AREA GIVING A LOWER
CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANT HSLC SEVERE CONVECTION.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
BOMBOGENESIS TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES RAPIDLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TN VALLEY. WE HAVE
KEPT A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN OUR SRN TN AND NERN AL COUNTIES, BUT THIS REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT BEST WITH PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE ABOVE THE -5C ISOTHERM LEVEL. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS IN THIS SITUATION.

WILL FOLLOW BLENDS CLOSELY D5-7. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS LIKE A SUNNY
AND CALM WEATHER DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SKIRTS THRU BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF, SO PLAN TO HOLD ONTO LOW CHC POPS THRU D6. THEN UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO VENTURE OUT WITH PRECIP AT DAY 7.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1212 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS MOSTLY
BEEN LOW-END VFR...BUT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE CEILING IS EXPECTED
AT KHSV/KMSL BEFORE MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
MORE LIKELY IN NC/NE ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR BASES AT KHSV
EXPECTED BY 03Z. LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
-DZ THRU ABOUT 07Z. DZ AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES INTO IFR CAT ARE
POSSIBLE AT KHSV BY 14Z. DZ AND MVFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATER AT KMSL...BY 10Z...WITH LOWERING TO IFR THERE PERHAPS BY 15Z.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER WITH CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...AND CEILINGS COULD SHIFT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER
OR LOWER IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  55  53  61 /  20  30  60  90
SHOALS        42  57  55  62 /  10  30  70  90
VINEMONT      44  55  54  61 /  20  30  60  90
FAYETTEVILLE  43  51  50  58 /  20  30  60  90
ALBERTVILLE   44  53  52  60 /  30  30  60  90
FORT PAYNE    43  52  49  58 /  30  30  50  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 211945
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SELY. THE MOISTENING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS SOME -RA IN OUR SERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER WILL DEPART RAPIDLY.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES QUICKLY FOLLOW BEHIND AS EARLY AS MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD INSTIGATE A FEW SHRA, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-
SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION THRU OUR AREA. A CAD
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED MOISTURE INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWER
AND STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER, THE RRQ UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
AND RESULTANT LLJ WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AT
925-850MB LAYER INTO THE REGION. EVENTUALLY, SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL THIS POINTS TO A
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR PROLONGED BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE
ECHO TRAINING DUE TO A HIGHLY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IN MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS COULD ELEVATE A FEW CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING ATTM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RATHER MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MUCH CAPE, AND THUS RESULTANT SHERBE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY BELOW 1 UNIT IN OUR AREA GIVING A LOWER
CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANT HSLC SEVERE CONVECTION.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
BOMBOGENESIS TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES RAPIDLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TN VALLEY. WE HAVE
KEPT A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN OUR SRN TN AND NERN AL COUNTIES, BUT THIS REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT BEST WITH PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE ABOVE THE -5C ISOTHERM LEVEL. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS IN THIS SITUATION.

WILL FOLLOW BLENDS CLOSELY D5-7. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS LIKE A SUNNY
AND CALM WEATHER DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SKIRTS THRU BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF, SO PLAN TO HOLD ONTO LOW CHC POPS THRU D6. THEN UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO VENTURE OUT WITH PRECIP AT DAY 7.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1212 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS MOSTLY
BEEN LOW-END VFR...BUT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE CEILING IS EXPECTED
AT KHSV/KMSL BEFORE MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
MORE LIKELY IN NC/NE ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR BASES AT KHSV
EXPECTED BY 03Z. LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
-DZ THRU ABOUT 07Z. DZ AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES INTO IFR CAT ARE
POSSIBLE AT KHSV BY 14Z. DZ AND MVFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATER AT KMSL...BY 10Z...WITH LOWERING TO IFR THERE PERHAPS BY 15Z.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER WITH CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...AND CEILINGS COULD SHIFT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER
OR LOWER IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  55  53  61 /  20  30  60  90
SHOALS        42  57  55  62 /  10  30  70  90
VINEMONT      44  55  54  61 /  20  30  60  90
FAYETTEVILLE  43  51  50  58 /  20  30  60  90
ALBERTVILLE   44  53  52  60 /  30  30  60  90
FORT PAYNE    43  52  49  58 /  30  30  50  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211945
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SELY. THE MOISTENING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS SOME -RA IN OUR SERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER WILL DEPART RAPIDLY.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES QUICKLY FOLLOW BEHIND AS EARLY AS MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD INSTIGATE A FEW SHRA, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-
SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION THRU OUR AREA. A CAD
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED MOISTURE INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWER
AND STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER, THE RRQ UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
AND RESULTANT LLJ WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AT
925-850MB LAYER INTO THE REGION. EVENTUALLY, SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL THIS POINTS TO A
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR PROLONGED BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE
ECHO TRAINING DUE TO A HIGHLY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IN MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS COULD ELEVATE A FEW CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING ATTM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RATHER MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MUCH CAPE, AND THUS RESULTANT SHERBE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY BELOW 1 UNIT IN OUR AREA GIVING A LOWER
CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANT HSLC SEVERE CONVECTION.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
BOMBOGENESIS TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES RAPIDLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TN VALLEY. WE HAVE
KEPT A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN OUR SRN TN AND NERN AL COUNTIES, BUT THIS REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT BEST WITH PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE ABOVE THE -5C ISOTHERM LEVEL. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS IN THIS SITUATION.

WILL FOLLOW BLENDS CLOSELY D5-7. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS LIKE A SUNNY
AND CALM WEATHER DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SKIRTS THRU BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF, SO PLAN TO HOLD ONTO LOW CHC POPS THRU D6. THEN UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO VENTURE OUT WITH PRECIP AT DAY 7.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1212 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS MOSTLY
BEEN LOW-END VFR...BUT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE CEILING IS EXPECTED
AT KHSV/KMSL BEFORE MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
MORE LIKELY IN NC/NE ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR BASES AT KHSV
EXPECTED BY 03Z. LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
-DZ THRU ABOUT 07Z. DZ AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES INTO IFR CAT ARE
POSSIBLE AT KHSV BY 14Z. DZ AND MVFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATER AT KMSL...BY 10Z...WITH LOWERING TO IFR THERE PERHAPS BY 15Z.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER WITH CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...AND CEILINGS COULD SHIFT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER
OR LOWER IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  55  53  61 /  20  30  60  90
SHOALS        42  57  55  62 /  10  30  70  90
VINEMONT      44  55  54  61 /  20  30  60  90
FAYETTEVILLE  43  51  50  58 /  20  30  60  90
ALBERTVILLE   44  53  52  60 /  30  30  60  90
FORT PAYNE    43  52  49  58 /  30  30  50  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211945
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SELY. THE MOISTENING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS SOME -RA IN OUR SERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER WILL DEPART RAPIDLY.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES QUICKLY FOLLOW BEHIND AS EARLY AS MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD INSTIGATE A FEW SHRA, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-
SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION THRU OUR AREA. A CAD
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED MOISTURE INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWER
AND STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER, THE RRQ UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
AND RESULTANT LLJ WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AT
925-850MB LAYER INTO THE REGION. EVENTUALLY, SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL THIS POINTS TO A
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR PROLONGED BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE
ECHO TRAINING DUE TO A HIGHLY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IN MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS COULD ELEVATE A FEW CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING ATTM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RATHER MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MUCH CAPE, AND THUS RESULTANT SHERBE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY BELOW 1 UNIT IN OUR AREA GIVING A LOWER
CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANT HSLC SEVERE CONVECTION.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
BOMBOGENESIS TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES RAPIDLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TN VALLEY. WE HAVE
KEPT A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN OUR SRN TN AND NERN AL COUNTIES, BUT THIS REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT BEST WITH PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE ABOVE THE -5C ISOTHERM LEVEL. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE ICE CRYSTALS IN THIS SITUATION.

WILL FOLLOW BLENDS CLOSELY D5-7. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS LIKE A SUNNY
AND CALM WEATHER DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SKIRTS THRU BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF, SO PLAN TO HOLD ONTO LOW CHC POPS THRU D6. THEN UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO VENTURE OUT WITH PRECIP AT DAY 7.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1212 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS MOSTLY
BEEN LOW-END VFR...BUT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE CEILING IS EXPECTED
AT KHSV/KMSL BEFORE MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
MORE LIKELY IN NC/NE ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR BASES AT KHSV
EXPECTED BY 03Z. LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
-DZ THRU ABOUT 07Z. DZ AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES INTO IFR CAT ARE
POSSIBLE AT KHSV BY 14Z. DZ AND MVFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATER AT KMSL...BY 10Z...WITH LOWERING TO IFR THERE PERHAPS BY 15Z.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER WITH CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...AND CEILINGS COULD SHIFT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER
OR LOWER IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  55  53  61 /  20  30  60  90
SHOALS        42  57  55  62 /  10  30  70  90
VINEMONT      44  55  54  61 /  20  30  60  90
FAYETTEVILLE  43  51  50  58 /  20  30  60  90
ALBERTVILLE   44  53  52  60 /  30  30  60  90
FORT PAYNE    43  52  49  58 /  30  30  50  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 211823 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED PRELIMINARY POINT POPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1216 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...LATE MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD. THESE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED
INSOLATION ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS WHERE CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN LOWEST. WE HAVE UPDATED TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE STREAM OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS FOCUSED OFFSHORE
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ECHOES
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE COAST OR INTERIOR EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE OTHERWISE MADE TO INLAND WINDS...TEMPS...AND
DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
21.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR
LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST...WHILE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE
THE RULE FURTHER INLAND. CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

MARINE...UPDATED CURRENT MARINE FORECAST TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MONDAY THEN BUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  51  70  62  71 /  10  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   57  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   62  48  67  60  71 /  10  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  57  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      61  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  20  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/10







000
FXUS64 KMOB 211823 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED PRELIMINARY POINT POPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1216 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...LATE MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD. THESE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED
INSOLATION ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS WHERE CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN LOWEST. WE HAVE UPDATED TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE STREAM OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS FOCUSED OFFSHORE
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ECHOES
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE COAST OR INTERIOR EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE OTHERWISE MADE TO INLAND WINDS...TEMPS...AND
DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
21.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR
LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST...WHILE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE
THE RULE FURTHER INLAND. CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

MARINE...UPDATED CURRENT MARINE FORECAST TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MONDAY THEN BUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  51  70  62  71 /  10  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   57  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   62  48  67  60  71 /  10  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  57  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      61  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  20  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/10








000
FXUS64 KMOB 211816 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1216 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...LATE MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD. THESE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED
INSOLATION ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS WHERE CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN LOWEST. WE HAVE UPDATED TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE STREAM OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS FOCUSED OFFSHORE
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ECHOES
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE COAST OR INTERIOR EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE OTHERWISE MADE TO INLAND WINDS...TEMPS...AND
DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
21.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR
LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST...WHILE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE
THE RULE FURTHER INLAND. CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

MARINE...UPDATED CURRENT MARINE FORECAST TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MONDAY THEN BUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  51  70  62  71 /  20  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   57  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   62  48  67  60  71 /  20  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  57  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      61  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  20  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/10





000
FXUS64 KMOB 211816 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1216 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...LATE MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD. THESE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED
INSOLATION ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS WHERE CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN LOWEST. WE HAVE UPDATED TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE STREAM OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS FOCUSED OFFSHORE
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ECHOES
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE COAST OR INTERIOR EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE OTHERWISE MADE TO INLAND WINDS...TEMPS...AND
DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
21.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR
LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST...WHILE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE
THE RULE FURTHER INLAND. CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

MARINE...UPDATED CURRENT MARINE FORECAST TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MONDAY THEN BUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  51  70  62  71 /  20  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   57  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   62  48  67  60  71 /  20  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  57  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      61  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  20  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/10




000
FXUS64 KHUN 211812 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1212 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
A DECK OF LOW STRATUS WITH BASES ARND 3KFT AND TOPS TO ARND 5KFT HAVE
MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS STILL
PREVAIL IN FAR NW ALABAMA AND IN A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. ALSO, A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTIES. THIS COMPLICATES THE
HIGH TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT, BUT NUMBERS WERE ADJUSTED BASED LARGELY
ON THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS AND WHERE THEY ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
THE LONGEST. IN A SW-NE SWATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPS WERE GENERALLY ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE. IN LOCATIONS
WHERE MORE INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UP A
LITTLE. TEMP RISES TODAY WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK BUT INCREASING
WAA.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE RESIDUAL COOL AIRMASS THAT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ROBUST IN THE
EAST. LIFT AND CONDENSATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAINLY IN PARTS OF DEKALB/JACKSON COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HEATING THAT IS TAKING PLACE IN THE
CLOUD "HOLE" IN PARTS OF CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND THE POCKET OF DRIER AIR
EVIDENT THERE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE REMOVED FROM THOSE AREAS.
CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF THE HSV/DECATUR METRO.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS MOSTLY
BEEN LOW-END VFR...BUT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE CEILING IS EXPECTED
AT KHSV/KMSL BEFORE MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
MORE LIKELY IN NC/NE ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR BASES AT KHSV
EXPECTED BY 03Z. LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
-DZ THRU ABOUT 07Z. DZ AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES INTO IFR CAT ARE
POSSIBLE AT KHSV BY 14Z. DZ AND MVFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATER AT KMSL...BY 10Z...WITH LOWERING TO IFR THERE PERHAPS BY 15Z.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER WITH CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...AND CEILINGS COULD SHIFT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER
OR LOWER IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211812 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1212 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
A DECK OF LOW STRATUS WITH BASES ARND 3KFT AND TOPS TO ARND 5KFT HAVE
MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS STILL
PREVAIL IN FAR NW ALABAMA AND IN A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. ALSO, A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTIES. THIS COMPLICATES THE
HIGH TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT, BUT NUMBERS WERE ADJUSTED BASED LARGELY
ON THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS AND WHERE THEY ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
THE LONGEST. IN A SW-NE SWATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPS WERE GENERALLY ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE. IN LOCATIONS
WHERE MORE INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UP A
LITTLE. TEMP RISES TODAY WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK BUT INCREASING
WAA.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE RESIDUAL COOL AIRMASS THAT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ROBUST IN THE
EAST. LIFT AND CONDENSATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAINLY IN PARTS OF DEKALB/JACKSON COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HEATING THAT IS TAKING PLACE IN THE
CLOUD "HOLE" IN PARTS OF CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND THE POCKET OF DRIER AIR
EVIDENT THERE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE REMOVED FROM THOSE AREAS.
CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF THE HSV/DECATUR METRO.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS MOSTLY
BEEN LOW-END VFR...BUT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE CEILING IS EXPECTED
AT KHSV/KMSL BEFORE MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
MORE LIKELY IN NC/NE ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR BASES AT KHSV
EXPECTED BY 03Z. LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
-DZ THRU ABOUT 07Z. DZ AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES INTO IFR CAT ARE
POSSIBLE AT KHSV BY 14Z. DZ AND MVFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATER AT KMSL...BY 10Z...WITH LOWERING TO IFR THERE PERHAPS BY 15Z.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER WITH CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...AND CEILINGS COULD SHIFT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER
OR LOWER IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211812 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1212 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
A DECK OF LOW STRATUS WITH BASES ARND 3KFT AND TOPS TO ARND 5KFT HAVE
MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS STILL
PREVAIL IN FAR NW ALABAMA AND IN A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. ALSO, A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTIES. THIS COMPLICATES THE
HIGH TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT, BUT NUMBERS WERE ADJUSTED BASED LARGELY
ON THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS AND WHERE THEY ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
THE LONGEST. IN A SW-NE SWATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPS WERE GENERALLY ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE. IN LOCATIONS
WHERE MORE INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UP A
LITTLE. TEMP RISES TODAY WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK BUT INCREASING
WAA.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE RESIDUAL COOL AIRMASS THAT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ROBUST IN THE
EAST. LIFT AND CONDENSATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAINLY IN PARTS OF DEKALB/JACKSON COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HEATING THAT IS TAKING PLACE IN THE
CLOUD "HOLE" IN PARTS OF CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND THE POCKET OF DRIER AIR
EVIDENT THERE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE REMOVED FROM THOSE AREAS.
CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF THE HSV/DECATUR METRO.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS MOSTLY
BEEN LOW-END VFR...BUT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE CEILING IS EXPECTED
AT KHSV/KMSL BEFORE MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
MORE LIKELY IN NC/NE ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR BASES AT KHSV
EXPECTED BY 03Z. LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
-DZ THRU ABOUT 07Z. DZ AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES INTO IFR CAT ARE
POSSIBLE AT KHSV BY 14Z. DZ AND MVFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATER AT KMSL...BY 10Z...WITH LOWERING TO IFR THERE PERHAPS BY 15Z.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER WITH CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...AND CEILINGS COULD SHIFT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER
OR LOWER IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211812 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1212 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
A DECK OF LOW STRATUS WITH BASES ARND 3KFT AND TOPS TO ARND 5KFT HAVE
MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS STILL
PREVAIL IN FAR NW ALABAMA AND IN A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. ALSO, A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTIES. THIS COMPLICATES THE
HIGH TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT, BUT NUMBERS WERE ADJUSTED BASED LARGELY
ON THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS AND WHERE THEY ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
THE LONGEST. IN A SW-NE SWATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPS WERE GENERALLY ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE. IN LOCATIONS
WHERE MORE INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UP A
LITTLE. TEMP RISES TODAY WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK BUT INCREASING
WAA.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE RESIDUAL COOL AIRMASS THAT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ROBUST IN THE
EAST. LIFT AND CONDENSATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAINLY IN PARTS OF DEKALB/JACKSON COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HEATING THAT IS TAKING PLACE IN THE
CLOUD "HOLE" IN PARTS OF CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND THE POCKET OF DRIER AIR
EVIDENT THERE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE REMOVED FROM THOSE AREAS.
CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF THE HSV/DECATUR METRO.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS MOSTLY
BEEN LOW-END VFR...BUT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE CEILING IS EXPECTED
AT KHSV/KMSL BEFORE MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
MORE LIKELY IN NC/NE ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR BASES AT KHSV
EXPECTED BY 03Z. LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
-DZ THRU ABOUT 07Z. DZ AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES INTO IFR CAT ARE
POSSIBLE AT KHSV BY 14Z. DZ AND MVFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATER AT KMSL...BY 10Z...WITH LOWERING TO IFR THERE PERHAPS BY 15Z.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER WITH CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...AND CEILINGS COULD SHIFT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER
OR LOWER IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 211750
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONLY LIMITED
SUNSHINE ACROSS SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-20. RADAR IMAGERY IS
CURRENTLY RAIN FREE ACROSS ALABAMA AND LOWED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FORM RISING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW IFR TO MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN TONIGHT. CIGS
COULD RISE A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
AND IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /   0  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  10  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  55  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  58  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  20  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  57  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  20  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 211750
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONLY LIMITED
SUNSHINE ACROSS SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-20. RADAR IMAGERY IS
CURRENTLY RAIN FREE ACROSS ALABAMA AND LOWED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FORM RISING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW IFR TO MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN TONIGHT. CIGS
COULD RISE A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
AND IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /   0  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  10  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  55  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  58  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  20  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  57  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  20  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 211750
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONLY LIMITED
SUNSHINE ACROSS SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-20. RADAR IMAGERY IS
CURRENTLY RAIN FREE ACROSS ALABAMA AND LOWED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FORM RISING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW IFR TO MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN TONIGHT. CIGS
COULD RISE A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
AND IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /   0  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  10  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  55  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  58  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  20  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  57  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  20  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 211750
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONLY LIMITED
SUNSHINE ACROSS SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-20. RADAR IMAGERY IS
CURRENTLY RAIN FREE ACROSS ALABAMA AND LOWED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FORM RISING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW IFR TO MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN TONIGHT. CIGS
COULD RISE A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
AND IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /   0  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  10  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  55  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  58  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  20  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  57  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  20  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 211720
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1120 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONLY LIMITED
SUNSHINE ACROSS SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-20. RADAR IMAGERY IS
CURRENTLY RAIN FREE ACROSS ALABAMA AND LOWED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FORM RISING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 12Z RANGED FROM JUST ABOVE MVFR AT TCL AND
BHM...TO IFR AT TOI. IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...CONDITIONS WERE
GENERALLY MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS INTERSPERSED. BHM AND TCL ARE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS SO BELIEVE CONDITIONS
WILL OSCILLATE AT THESE TWO SITES AND FINALLY LEVEL OUT WITH MVFR
CIGS PREVAILING BY MID TO LATE MRNG. OTHERWISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS BY MID DAY BUT
THEN A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR CONDITIONS BY OR AFTER 06Z.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN
GENERALLY MFVR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS. THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
REGION WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY AND HELP BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED AS
FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 59 AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCH
NORTHWEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NOT SURE IF ANYONE WILL SEE
THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON HAS OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE
DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WEDGING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY.

MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS. THIS WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. OVERALL KEPT MUCH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT WITH SOME INCREASE TO POPS IN THE TUE
NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

NOW TO THE SEVERE THREAT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE...BUT SOME RESERVATIONS LINGER...MAINLY
IN RELATION TO THE INSTABILITY. THERE ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD
LIMIT (PERHAPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY) THE DESTABILIZATION OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. FIRST...WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SECOND...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. THIS WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CUT CENTRAL ALABAMA OFF FROM THE RICHER AIRMASS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. BUT...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SOMEHOW DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL BACK OFF ON
WORDING SLIGHTLY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AND CHANGES TO
THE THREATS AND THREAT AREA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/EAST. BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...THE COLUMN DRIES
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. HIGHS WILL STAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW
THEN S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /   0  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  10  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  55  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  58  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  20  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  57  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  20  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 211720
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1120 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONLY LIMITED
SUNSHINE ACROSS SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-20. RADAR IMAGERY IS
CURRENTLY RAIN FREE ACROSS ALABAMA AND LOWED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FORM RISING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 12Z RANGED FROM JUST ABOVE MVFR AT TCL AND
BHM...TO IFR AT TOI. IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...CONDITIONS WERE
GENERALLY MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS INTERSPERSED. BHM AND TCL ARE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS SO BELIEVE CONDITIONS
WILL OSCILLATE AT THESE TWO SITES AND FINALLY LEVEL OUT WITH MVFR
CIGS PREVAILING BY MID TO LATE MRNG. OTHERWISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS BY MID DAY BUT
THEN A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR CONDITIONS BY OR AFTER 06Z.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN
GENERALLY MFVR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS. THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
REGION WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY AND HELP BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED AS
FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 59 AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCH
NORTHWEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NOT SURE IF ANYONE WILL SEE
THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON HAS OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE
DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WEDGING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY.

MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS. THIS WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. OVERALL KEPT MUCH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT WITH SOME INCREASE TO POPS IN THE TUE
NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

NOW TO THE SEVERE THREAT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE...BUT SOME RESERVATIONS LINGER...MAINLY
IN RELATION TO THE INSTABILITY. THERE ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD
LIMIT (PERHAPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY) THE DESTABILIZATION OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. FIRST...WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SECOND...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. THIS WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CUT CENTRAL ALABAMA OFF FROM THE RICHER AIRMASS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. BUT...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SOMEHOW DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL BACK OFF ON
WORDING SLIGHTLY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AND CHANGES TO
THE THREATS AND THREAT AREA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/EAST. BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...THE COLUMN DRIES
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. HIGHS WILL STAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW
THEN S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /   0  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  10  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  55  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  58  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  20  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  57  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  20  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 211720
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1120 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONLY LIMITED
SUNSHINE ACROSS SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-20. RADAR IMAGERY IS
CURRENTLY RAIN FREE ACROSS ALABAMA AND LOWED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FORM RISING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 12Z RANGED FROM JUST ABOVE MVFR AT TCL AND
BHM...TO IFR AT TOI. IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...CONDITIONS WERE
GENERALLY MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS INTERSPERSED. BHM AND TCL ARE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS SO BELIEVE CONDITIONS
WILL OSCILLATE AT THESE TWO SITES AND FINALLY LEVEL OUT WITH MVFR
CIGS PREVAILING BY MID TO LATE MRNG. OTHERWISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS BY MID DAY BUT
THEN A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR CONDITIONS BY OR AFTER 06Z.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN
GENERALLY MFVR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS. THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
REGION WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY AND HELP BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED AS
FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 59 AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCH
NORTHWEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NOT SURE IF ANYONE WILL SEE
THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON HAS OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE
DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WEDGING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY.

MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS. THIS WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. OVERALL KEPT MUCH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT WITH SOME INCREASE TO POPS IN THE TUE
NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

NOW TO THE SEVERE THREAT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE...BUT SOME RESERVATIONS LINGER...MAINLY
IN RELATION TO THE INSTABILITY. THERE ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD
LIMIT (PERHAPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY) THE DESTABILIZATION OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. FIRST...WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SECOND...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. THIS WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CUT CENTRAL ALABAMA OFF FROM THE RICHER AIRMASS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. BUT...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SOMEHOW DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL BACK OFF ON
WORDING SLIGHTLY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AND CHANGES TO
THE THREATS AND THREAT AREA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/EAST. BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...THE COLUMN DRIES
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. HIGHS WILL STAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW
THEN S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /   0  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  10  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  55  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  58  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  20  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  57  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  20  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 211720
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1120 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONLY LIMITED
SUNSHINE ACROSS SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-20. RADAR IMAGERY IS
CURRENTLY RAIN FREE ACROSS ALABAMA AND LOWED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FORM RISING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 12Z RANGED FROM JUST ABOVE MVFR AT TCL AND
BHM...TO IFR AT TOI. IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...CONDITIONS WERE
GENERALLY MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS INTERSPERSED. BHM AND TCL ARE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS SO BELIEVE CONDITIONS
WILL OSCILLATE AT THESE TWO SITES AND FINALLY LEVEL OUT WITH MVFR
CIGS PREVAILING BY MID TO LATE MRNG. OTHERWISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS BY MID DAY BUT
THEN A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR CONDITIONS BY OR AFTER 06Z.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN
GENERALLY MFVR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS. THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
REGION WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY AND HELP BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED AS
FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 59 AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCH
NORTHWEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NOT SURE IF ANYONE WILL SEE
THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON HAS OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE
DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WEDGING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY.

MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS. THIS WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. OVERALL KEPT MUCH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT WITH SOME INCREASE TO POPS IN THE TUE
NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

NOW TO THE SEVERE THREAT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE...BUT SOME RESERVATIONS LINGER...MAINLY
IN RELATION TO THE INSTABILITY. THERE ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD
LIMIT (PERHAPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY) THE DESTABILIZATION OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. FIRST...WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SECOND...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. THIS WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CUT CENTRAL ALABAMA OFF FROM THE RICHER AIRMASS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. BUT...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SOMEHOW DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL BACK OFF ON
WORDING SLIGHTLY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AND CHANGES TO
THE THREATS AND THREAT AREA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/EAST. BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...THE COLUMN DRIES
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. HIGHS WILL STAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW
THEN S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /   0  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  10  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  55  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  58  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  20  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  57  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  20  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 211649 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
ALSO...ADJUSTED PRECIP/POP AREA IN THE SE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DECK OF LOW STRATUS WITH BASES ARND 3KFT AND TOPS TO ARND 5KFT HAVE
MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS STILL
PREVAIL IN FAR NW ALABAMA AND IN A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. ALSO, A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTIES. THIS COMPLICATES THE
HIGH TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT, BUT NUMBERS WERE ADJUSTED BASED LARGELY
ON THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS AND WHERE THEY ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
THE LONGEST. IN A SW-NE SWATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPS WERE GENERALLY ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE. IN LOCATIONS
WHERE MORE INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UP A
LITTLE. TEMP RISES TODAY WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK BUT INCREASING
WAA.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE RESIDUAL COOL AIRMASS THAT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ROBUST IN THE
EAST. LIFT AND CONDENSATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAINLY IN PARTS OF DEKALB/JACKSON COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HEATING THAT IS TAKING PLACE IN THE
CLOUD "HOLE" IN PARTS OF CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND THE POCKET OF DRIER AIR
EVIDENT THERE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE REMOVED FROM THOSE AREAS.
CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF THE HSV/DECATUR METRO.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 552 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

BIT OF A PESSIMISTIC AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 18
TO 24 HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY BE OVERCOME
WITH MOISTURE...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL APPROACH THE KHSV TERMINAL AT 20Z AND THEN AT 00Z AT THE KMSL
TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE TERMINALS SOONER THAN FORECAST...BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS 15Z AT THE KHSV TERMINAL. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ANY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION ANYTHING BEYOND A SCATTERED DECK IN THE TAFS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 211649 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
ALSO...ADJUSTED PRECIP/POP AREA IN THE SE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DECK OF LOW STRATUS WITH BASES ARND 3KFT AND TOPS TO ARND 5KFT HAVE
MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS STILL
PREVAIL IN FAR NW ALABAMA AND IN A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. ALSO, A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTIES. THIS COMPLICATES THE
HIGH TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT, BUT NUMBERS WERE ADJUSTED BASED LARGELY
ON THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS AND WHERE THEY ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
THE LONGEST. IN A SW-NE SWATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPS WERE GENERALLY ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE. IN LOCATIONS
WHERE MORE INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UP A
LITTLE. TEMP RISES TODAY WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK BUT INCREASING
WAA.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE RESIDUAL COOL AIRMASS THAT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ROBUST IN THE
EAST. LIFT AND CONDENSATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAINLY IN PARTS OF DEKALB/JACKSON COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HEATING THAT IS TAKING PLACE IN THE
CLOUD "HOLE" IN PARTS OF CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND THE POCKET OF DRIER AIR
EVIDENT THERE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE REMOVED FROM THOSE AREAS.
CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF THE HSV/DECATUR METRO.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 552 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

BIT OF A PESSIMISTIC AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 18
TO 24 HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY BE OVERCOME
WITH MOISTURE...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL APPROACH THE KHSV TERMINAL AT 20Z AND THEN AT 00Z AT THE KMSL
TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE TERMINALS SOONER THAN FORECAST...BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS 15Z AT THE KHSV TERMINAL. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ANY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION ANYTHING BEYOND A SCATTERED DECK IN THE TAFS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 211649 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
ALSO...ADJUSTED PRECIP/POP AREA IN THE SE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DECK OF LOW STRATUS WITH BASES ARND 3KFT AND TOPS TO ARND 5KFT HAVE
MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS STILL
PREVAIL IN FAR NW ALABAMA AND IN A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. ALSO, A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTIES. THIS COMPLICATES THE
HIGH TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT, BUT NUMBERS WERE ADJUSTED BASED LARGELY
ON THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS AND WHERE THEY ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
THE LONGEST. IN A SW-NE SWATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPS WERE GENERALLY ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE. IN LOCATIONS
WHERE MORE INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UP A
LITTLE. TEMP RISES TODAY WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK BUT INCREASING
WAA.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE RESIDUAL COOL AIRMASS THAT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ROBUST IN THE
EAST. LIFT AND CONDENSATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAINLY IN PARTS OF DEKALB/JACKSON COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HEATING THAT IS TAKING PLACE IN THE
CLOUD "HOLE" IN PARTS OF CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND THE POCKET OF DRIER AIR
EVIDENT THERE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE REMOVED FROM THOSE AREAS.
CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF THE HSV/DECATUR METRO.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 552 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

BIT OF A PESSIMISTIC AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 18
TO 24 HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY BE OVERCOME
WITH MOISTURE...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL APPROACH THE KHSV TERMINAL AT 20Z AND THEN AT 00Z AT THE KMSL
TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE TERMINALS SOONER THAN FORECAST...BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS 15Z AT THE KHSV TERMINAL. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ANY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION ANYTHING BEYOND A SCATTERED DECK IN THE TAFS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 211649 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
ALSO...ADJUSTED PRECIP/POP AREA IN THE SE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DECK OF LOW STRATUS WITH BASES ARND 3KFT AND TOPS TO ARND 5KFT HAVE
MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS STILL
PREVAIL IN FAR NW ALABAMA AND IN A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. ALSO, A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTIES. THIS COMPLICATES THE
HIGH TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT, BUT NUMBERS WERE ADJUSTED BASED LARGELY
ON THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS AND WHERE THEY ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
THE LONGEST. IN A SW-NE SWATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPS WERE GENERALLY ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE. IN LOCATIONS
WHERE MORE INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UP A
LITTLE. TEMP RISES TODAY WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK BUT INCREASING
WAA.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE RESIDUAL COOL AIRMASS THAT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ROBUST IN THE
EAST. LIFT AND CONDENSATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAINLY IN PARTS OF DEKALB/JACKSON COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HEATING THAT IS TAKING PLACE IN THE
CLOUD "HOLE" IN PARTS OF CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND THE POCKET OF DRIER AIR
EVIDENT THERE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE REMOVED FROM THOSE AREAS.
CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF THE HSV/DECATUR METRO.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 552 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

BIT OF A PESSIMISTIC AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 18
TO 24 HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY BE OVERCOME
WITH MOISTURE...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL APPROACH THE KHSV TERMINAL AT 20Z AND THEN AT 00Z AT THE KMSL
TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE TERMINALS SOONER THAN FORECAST...BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS 15Z AT THE KHSV TERMINAL. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ANY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION ANYTHING BEYOND A SCATTERED DECK IN THE TAFS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 211234 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014


.MARINE...UPDATED CURRENT MARINE FORECAST TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MONDAY THEN BUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  51  70  62  71 /  20  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   61  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   59  48  67  60  71 /  20  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  60  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      60  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  30  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 211234 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014


.MARINE...UPDATED CURRENT MARINE FORECAST TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MONDAY THEN BUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  51  70  62  71 /  20  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   61  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   59  48  67  60  71 /  20  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  60  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      60  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  30  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 211234 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014


.MARINE...UPDATED CURRENT MARINE FORECAST TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MONDAY THEN BUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  51  70  62  71 /  20  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   61  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   59  48  67  60  71 /  20  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  60  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      60  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  30  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 211234 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014


.MARINE...UPDATED CURRENT MARINE FORECAST TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MONDAY THEN BUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  51  70  62  71 /  20  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   61  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   59  48  67  60  71 /  20  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  60  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      60  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  30  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 211152 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
552 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 543 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY FEATURE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION -- WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND THICKER FOG ARE POISED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA/NORTH GEORGIA -- WITH THIS AIRMASS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AN INITIAL/WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN
GEORGIA THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER WAVE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 290K. THUS...EXPECT
THE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO REDEVELOP
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTIONS ALONG THE 290K SURFACE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THIS EVENING
AND COINCIDE WITH VERY LOW CPD VALUES TO BRING A CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION -- WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
CHALLENGING DUE TO DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING ARRIVAL OF OVERCAST
CEILINGS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S BENEATH A THICK BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG VORT MAX DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA AND DEEPEN FURTHER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /35-45
KNOTS/ ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUING
-- ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY YIELD A
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PWAT
VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75 INCH. A STRONGER VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY-
TILTED MONDAY NIGHT AS IT EJECTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR ALL
AREAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SSWLY LOW- LEVEL JET
PEAKS AT 40-50 KNOTS...A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT NUDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION AS 800-500 MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...RESULTING IN
500-1000 J/KG CAPE AVAILABLE FOR A PARCEL LIFTED ABOVE THE SURFACE-
BASED INVERSION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ROTATING
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A MORE INTENSE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
AND UPPER JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
AMPLIFYING THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH EVEN FURTHER AND INITIATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
THUS...EXPECT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY NIGHT TO CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF UPPER 50/LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY ERODES
THE INVERSION. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST MARKING THE END OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW...AND WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
THAT A TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NE
ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS.

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT
BRIEFLY TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
IS FORECAST TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRTON PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED...AND WILL ONLY
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. FINALLY -- ALTHOUGH IT
IS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ABOUT
ONE WEEK FROM TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLED NEXT SUNDAY TO REFLECT
THIS...BUT MAY NEED MAJOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

BIT OF A PESSIMISTIC AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 18
TO 24 HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY BE OVERCOME
WITH MOISTURE...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL APPROACH THE KHSV TERMINAL AT 20Z AND THEN AT 00Z AT THE KMSL
TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE TERMINALS SOONER THAN FORECAST...BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS 15Z AT THE KHSV TERMINAL. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ANY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION ANYTHING BEYOND A SCATTERED DECK IN THE TAFS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 211152 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
552 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 543 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY FEATURE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION -- WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND THICKER FOG ARE POISED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA/NORTH GEORGIA -- WITH THIS AIRMASS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AN INITIAL/WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN
GEORGIA THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER WAVE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 290K. THUS...EXPECT
THE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO REDEVELOP
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTIONS ALONG THE 290K SURFACE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THIS EVENING
AND COINCIDE WITH VERY LOW CPD VALUES TO BRING A CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION -- WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
CHALLENGING DUE TO DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING ARRIVAL OF OVERCAST
CEILINGS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S BENEATH A THICK BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG VORT MAX DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA AND DEEPEN FURTHER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /35-45
KNOTS/ ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUING
-- ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY YIELD A
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PWAT
VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75 INCH. A STRONGER VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY-
TILTED MONDAY NIGHT AS IT EJECTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR ALL
AREAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SSWLY LOW- LEVEL JET
PEAKS AT 40-50 KNOTS...A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT NUDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION AS 800-500 MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...RESULTING IN
500-1000 J/KG CAPE AVAILABLE FOR A PARCEL LIFTED ABOVE THE SURFACE-
BASED INVERSION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ROTATING
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A MORE INTENSE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
AND UPPER JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
AMPLIFYING THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH EVEN FURTHER AND INITIATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
THUS...EXPECT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY NIGHT TO CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF UPPER 50/LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY ERODES
THE INVERSION. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST MARKING THE END OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW...AND WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
THAT A TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NE
ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS.

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT
BRIEFLY TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
IS FORECAST TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRTON PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED...AND WILL ONLY
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. FINALLY -- ALTHOUGH IT
IS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ABOUT
ONE WEEK FROM TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLED NEXT SUNDAY TO REFLECT
THIS...BUT MAY NEED MAJOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

BIT OF A PESSIMISTIC AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 18
TO 24 HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY BE OVERCOME
WITH MOISTURE...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL APPROACH THE KHSV TERMINAL AT 20Z AND THEN AT 00Z AT THE KMSL
TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE TERMINALS SOONER THAN FORECAST...BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS 15Z AT THE KHSV TERMINAL. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ANY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION ANYTHING BEYOND A SCATTERED DECK IN THE TAFS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211152 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
552 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 543 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY FEATURE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION -- WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND THICKER FOG ARE POISED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA/NORTH GEORGIA -- WITH THIS AIRMASS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AN INITIAL/WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN
GEORGIA THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER WAVE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 290K. THUS...EXPECT
THE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO REDEVELOP
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTIONS ALONG THE 290K SURFACE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THIS EVENING
AND COINCIDE WITH VERY LOW CPD VALUES TO BRING A CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION -- WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
CHALLENGING DUE TO DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING ARRIVAL OF OVERCAST
CEILINGS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S BENEATH A THICK BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG VORT MAX DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA AND DEEPEN FURTHER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /35-45
KNOTS/ ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUING
-- ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY YIELD A
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PWAT
VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75 INCH. A STRONGER VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY-
TILTED MONDAY NIGHT AS IT EJECTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR ALL
AREAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SSWLY LOW- LEVEL JET
PEAKS AT 40-50 KNOTS...A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT NUDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION AS 800-500 MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...RESULTING IN
500-1000 J/KG CAPE AVAILABLE FOR A PARCEL LIFTED ABOVE THE SURFACE-
BASED INVERSION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ROTATING
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A MORE INTENSE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
AND UPPER JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
AMPLIFYING THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH EVEN FURTHER AND INITIATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
THUS...EXPECT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY NIGHT TO CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF UPPER 50/LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY ERODES
THE INVERSION. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST MARKING THE END OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW...AND WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
THAT A TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NE
ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS.

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT
BRIEFLY TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
IS FORECAST TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRTON PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED...AND WILL ONLY
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. FINALLY -- ALTHOUGH IT
IS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ABOUT
ONE WEEK FROM TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLED NEXT SUNDAY TO REFLECT
THIS...BUT MAY NEED MAJOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

BIT OF A PESSIMISTIC AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 18
TO 24 HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY BE OVERCOME
WITH MOISTURE...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL APPROACH THE KHSV TERMINAL AT 20Z AND THEN AT 00Z AT THE KMSL
TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE TERMINALS SOONER THAN FORECAST...BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS 15Z AT THE KHSV TERMINAL. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ANY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION ANYTHING BEYOND A SCATTERED DECK IN THE TAFS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211152 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
552 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 543 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY FEATURE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION -- WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND THICKER FOG ARE POISED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA/NORTH GEORGIA -- WITH THIS AIRMASS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AN INITIAL/WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN
GEORGIA THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER WAVE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 290K. THUS...EXPECT
THE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO REDEVELOP
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTIONS ALONG THE 290K SURFACE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THIS EVENING
AND COINCIDE WITH VERY LOW CPD VALUES TO BRING A CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION -- WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
CHALLENGING DUE TO DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING ARRIVAL OF OVERCAST
CEILINGS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S BENEATH A THICK BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG VORT MAX DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA AND DEEPEN FURTHER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /35-45
KNOTS/ ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUING
-- ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY YIELD A
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PWAT
VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75 INCH. A STRONGER VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY-
TILTED MONDAY NIGHT AS IT EJECTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR ALL
AREAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SSWLY LOW- LEVEL JET
PEAKS AT 40-50 KNOTS...A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT NUDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION AS 800-500 MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...RESULTING IN
500-1000 J/KG CAPE AVAILABLE FOR A PARCEL LIFTED ABOVE THE SURFACE-
BASED INVERSION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ROTATING
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A MORE INTENSE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
AND UPPER JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
AMPLIFYING THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH EVEN FURTHER AND INITIATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
THUS...EXPECT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY NIGHT TO CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF UPPER 50/LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY ERODES
THE INVERSION. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST MARKING THE END OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW...AND WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
THAT A TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NE
ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS.

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT
BRIEFLY TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
IS FORECAST TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRTON PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED...AND WILL ONLY
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. FINALLY -- ALTHOUGH IT
IS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ABOUT
ONE WEEK FROM TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLED NEXT SUNDAY TO REFLECT
THIS...BUT MAY NEED MAJOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

BIT OF A PESSIMISTIC AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 18
TO 24 HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY BE OVERCOME
WITH MOISTURE...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL APPROACH THE KHSV TERMINAL AT 20Z AND THEN AT 00Z AT THE KMSL
TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE TERMINALS SOONER THAN FORECAST...BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS 15Z AT THE KHSV TERMINAL. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ANY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION ANYTHING BEYOND A SCATTERED DECK IN THE TAFS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 211143
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY FEATURE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION -- WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND THICKER FOG ARE POISED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA/NORTH GEORGIA -- WITH THIS AIRMASS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AN INITIAL/WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN
GEORGIA THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER WAVE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 290K. THUS...EXPECT
THE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO REDEVELOP
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTIONS ALONG THE 290K SURFACE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THIS EVENING
AND COINCIDE WITH VERY LOW CPD VALUES TO BRING A CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION -- WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
CHALLENGING DUE TO DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING ARRIVAL OF OVERCAST
CEILINGS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S BENEATH A THICK BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG VORT MAX DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA AND DEEPEN FURTHER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /35-45
KNOTS/ ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUING
-- ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY YIELD A
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PWAT
VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75 INCH. A STRONGER VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY-
TILTED MONDAY NIGHT AS IT EJECTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR ALL
AREAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SSWLY LOW- LEVEL JET
PEAKS AT 40-50 KNOTS...A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT NUDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION AS 800-500 MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...RESULTING IN
500-1000 J/KG CAPE AVAILABLE FOR A PARCEL LIFTED ABOVE THE SURFACE-
BASED INVERSION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ROTATING
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A MORE INTENSE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
AND UPPER JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
AMPLIFYING THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH EVEN FURTHER AND INITIATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
THUS...EXPECT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY NIGHT TO CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF UPPER 50/LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY ERODES
THE INVERSION. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST MARKING THE END OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW...AND WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
THAT A TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NE
ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS.

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT
BRIEFLY TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
IS FORECAST TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRTON PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED...AND WILL ONLY
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. FINALLY -- ALTHOUGH IT
IS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ABOUT
ONE WEEK FROM TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLED NEXT SUNDAY TO REFLECT
THIS...BUT MAY NEED MAJOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1134 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY MVFR MIST/FOG AROUND DAYBREAK IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE AL IN THE MORE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. VFR WEATHER
OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT NE WINDS
BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PIEDMONT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED LIGHT RAIN AT KHSV SUN
EVENING WITH VFR CIG/VIS VALUES EXPECTED.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    54  45  56  52 /  10  30  30  60
SHOALS        55  45  58  52 /  10  20  30  70
VINEMONT      55  46  56  51 /  20  30  30  60
FAYETTEVILLE  51  43  55  50 /  10  30  30  60
ALBERTVILLE   52  47  52  50 /  20  40  30  60
FORT PAYNE    53  44  53  50 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 211136 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS. THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
REGION WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY AND HELP BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED AS
FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 59 AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCH
NORTHWEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NOT SURE IF ANYONE WILL SEE
THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON HAS OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE
DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WEDGING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY.

MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS. THIS WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. OVERALL KEPT MUCH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT WITH SOME INCREASE TO POPS IN THE TUE
NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

NOW TO THE SEVERE THREAT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE...BUT SOME RESERVATIONS LINGER...MAINLY
IN RELATION TO THE INSTABILITY. THERE ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD
LIMIT (PERHAPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY) THE DESTABILIZATION OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. FIRST...WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SECOND...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. THIS WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CUT CENTRAL ALABAMA OFF FROM THE RICHER AIRMASS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. BUT...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SOMEHOW DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL BACK OFF ON
WORDING SLIGHTLY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AND CHANGES TO
THE THREATS AND THREAT AREA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/EAST. BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...THE COLUMN DRIES
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. HIGHS WILL STAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW
THEN S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 12Z RANGED FROM JUST ABOVE MVFR AT TCL AND
BHM...TO IFR AT TOI. IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...CONDITIONS WERE
GENERALLY MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS INTERSPERSED. BHM AND TCL ARE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS SO BELIEVE CONDITIONS
WILL OSCILLATE AT THESE TWO SITES AND FINALLY LEVEL OUT WITH MVFR
CIGS PREVAILING BY MID TO LATE MRNG. OTHERWISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS BY MID DAY BUT
THEN A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR CONDITIONS BY OR AFTER 06Z.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN
GENERALLY MFVR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.

/41/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /  20  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  20  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  56  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  59  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  30  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  59  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  30  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 211136 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS. THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
REGION WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY AND HELP BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED AS
FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 59 AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCH
NORTHWEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NOT SURE IF ANYONE WILL SEE
THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON HAS OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE
DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WEDGING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY.

MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS. THIS WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. OVERALL KEPT MUCH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT WITH SOME INCREASE TO POPS IN THE TUE
NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

NOW TO THE SEVERE THREAT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE...BUT SOME RESERVATIONS LINGER...MAINLY
IN RELATION TO THE INSTABILITY. THERE ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD
LIMIT (PERHAPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY) THE DESTABILIZATION OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. FIRST...WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SECOND...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. THIS WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CUT CENTRAL ALABAMA OFF FROM THE RICHER AIRMASS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. BUT...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SOMEHOW DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL BACK OFF ON
WORDING SLIGHTLY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AND CHANGES TO
THE THREATS AND THREAT AREA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/EAST. BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...THE COLUMN DRIES
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. HIGHS WILL STAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW
THEN S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 12Z RANGED FROM JUST ABOVE MVFR AT TCL AND
BHM...TO IFR AT TOI. IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...CONDITIONS WERE
GENERALLY MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS INTERSPERSED. BHM AND TCL ARE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS SO BELIEVE CONDITIONS
WILL OSCILLATE AT THESE TWO SITES AND FINALLY LEVEL OUT WITH MVFR
CIGS PREVAILING BY MID TO LATE MRNG. OTHERWISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS BY MID DAY BUT
THEN A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR CONDITIONS BY OR AFTER 06Z.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN
GENERALLY MFVR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.

/41/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /  20  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  20  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  56  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  59  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  30  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  59  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  30  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 211136 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS. THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
REGION WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY AND HELP BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED AS
FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 59 AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCH
NORTHWEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NOT SURE IF ANYONE WILL SEE
THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON HAS OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE
DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WEDGING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY.

MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS. THIS WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. OVERALL KEPT MUCH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT WITH SOME INCREASE TO POPS IN THE TUE
NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

NOW TO THE SEVERE THREAT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE...BUT SOME RESERVATIONS LINGER...MAINLY
IN RELATION TO THE INSTABILITY. THERE ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD
LIMIT (PERHAPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY) THE DESTABILIZATION OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. FIRST...WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SECOND...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. THIS WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CUT CENTRAL ALABAMA OFF FROM THE RICHER AIRMASS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. BUT...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SOMEHOW DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL BACK OFF ON
WORDING SLIGHTLY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AND CHANGES TO
THE THREATS AND THREAT AREA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/EAST. BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...THE COLUMN DRIES
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. HIGHS WILL STAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW
THEN S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 12Z RANGED FROM JUST ABOVE MVFR AT TCL AND
BHM...TO IFR AT TOI. IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...CONDITIONS WERE
GENERALLY MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS INTERSPERSED. BHM AND TCL ARE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS SO BELIEVE CONDITIONS
WILL OSCILLATE AT THESE TWO SITES AND FINALLY LEVEL OUT WITH MVFR
CIGS PREVAILING BY MID TO LATE MRNG. OTHERWISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS BY MID DAY BUT
THEN A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR CONDITIONS BY OR AFTER 06Z.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN
GENERALLY MFVR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.

/41/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /  20  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  20  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  56  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  59  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  30  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  59  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  30  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 211136 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS. THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
REGION WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY AND HELP BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED AS
FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 59 AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCH
NORTHWEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NOT SURE IF ANYONE WILL SEE
THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON HAS OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE
DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WEDGING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY.

MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS. THIS WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. OVERALL KEPT MUCH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT WITH SOME INCREASE TO POPS IN THE TUE
NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

NOW TO THE SEVERE THREAT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE...BUT SOME RESERVATIONS LINGER...MAINLY
IN RELATION TO THE INSTABILITY. THERE ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD
LIMIT (PERHAPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY) THE DESTABILIZATION OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. FIRST...WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SECOND...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. THIS WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CUT CENTRAL ALABAMA OFF FROM THE RICHER AIRMASS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. BUT...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SOMEHOW DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL BACK OFF ON
WORDING SLIGHTLY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AND CHANGES TO
THE THREATS AND THREAT AREA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/EAST. BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...THE COLUMN DRIES
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. HIGHS WILL STAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW
THEN S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 12Z RANGED FROM JUST ABOVE MVFR AT TCL AND
BHM...TO IFR AT TOI. IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...CONDITIONS WERE
GENERALLY MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS INTERSPERSED. BHM AND TCL ARE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS SO BELIEVE CONDITIONS
WILL OSCILLATE AT THESE TWO SITES AND FINALLY LEVEL OUT WITH MVFR
CIGS PREVAILING BY MID TO LATE MRNG. OTHERWISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS BY MID DAY BUT
THEN A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR CONDITIONS BY OR AFTER 06Z.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN
GENERALLY MFVR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.

/41/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /  20  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  20  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  56  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  59  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  30  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  59  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  30  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 211126
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
526 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS. THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
REGION WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY AND HELP BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK
TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED AS FAR NORTH
AS INTERSTATE 59 AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCH NORTHWEST AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NOT SURE IF ANYONE WILL SEE THE SUN THIS
AFTERNOON HAS OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WEDGING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY.

MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS. THIS WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. OVERALL KEPT MUCH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT WITH SOME INCREASE TO POPS IN THE TUE
NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

NOW TO THE SEVERE THREAT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE...BUT SOME RESERVATIONS LINGER...MAINLY
IN RELATION TO THE INSTABILITY. THERE ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD
LIMIT (PERHAPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY) THE DESTABILIZATION OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. FIRST...WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SECOND...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. THIS WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CUT CENTRAL ALABAMA OFF FROM THE RICHER AIRMASS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. BUT...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SOMEHOW DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL BACK OFF ON
WORDING SLIGHTLY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AND CHANGES TO
THE THREATS AND THREAT AREA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/EAST. BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...THE COLUMN DRIES
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. HIGHS WILL STAY GENERALLY
IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY
BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW THEN S AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /  20  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  20  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  56  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  59  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  30  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  59  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  30  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 211126
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
526 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS. THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
REGION WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY AND HELP BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK
TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED AS FAR NORTH
AS INTERSTATE 59 AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCH NORTHWEST AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NOT SURE IF ANYONE WILL SEE THE SUN THIS
AFTERNOON HAS OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WEDGING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY.

MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS. THIS WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. OVERALL KEPT MUCH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT WITH SOME INCREASE TO POPS IN THE TUE
NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

NOW TO THE SEVERE THREAT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE...BUT SOME RESERVATIONS LINGER...MAINLY
IN RELATION TO THE INSTABILITY. THERE ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD
LIMIT (PERHAPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY) THE DESTABILIZATION OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. FIRST...WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SECOND...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. THIS WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CUT CENTRAL ALABAMA OFF FROM THE RICHER AIRMASS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. BUT...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SOMEHOW DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL BACK OFF ON
WORDING SLIGHTLY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AND CHANGES TO
THE THREATS AND THREAT AREA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/EAST. BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...THE COLUMN DRIES
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. HIGHS WILL STAY GENERALLY
IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY
BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW THEN S AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /  20  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  20  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  56  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  59  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  30  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  59  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  30  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 211126
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
526 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS. THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
REGION WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY AND HELP BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK
TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED AS FAR NORTH
AS INTERSTATE 59 AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCH NORTHWEST AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NOT SURE IF ANYONE WILL SEE THE SUN THIS
AFTERNOON HAS OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WEDGING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY.

MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS. THIS WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. OVERALL KEPT MUCH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT WITH SOME INCREASE TO POPS IN THE TUE
NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

NOW TO THE SEVERE THREAT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE...BUT SOME RESERVATIONS LINGER...MAINLY
IN RELATION TO THE INSTABILITY. THERE ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD
LIMIT (PERHAPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY) THE DESTABILIZATION OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. FIRST...WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SECOND...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. THIS WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CUT CENTRAL ALABAMA OFF FROM THE RICHER AIRMASS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. BUT...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SOMEHOW DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL BACK OFF ON
WORDING SLIGHTLY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AND CHANGES TO
THE THREATS AND THREAT AREA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/EAST. BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...THE COLUMN DRIES
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. HIGHS WILL STAY GENERALLY
IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY
BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW THEN S AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /  20  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  20  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  56  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  59  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  30  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  59  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  30  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 211126
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
526 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS. THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
REGION WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY AND HELP BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK
TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED AS FAR NORTH
AS INTERSTATE 59 AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCH NORTHWEST AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NOT SURE IF ANYONE WILL SEE THE SUN THIS
AFTERNOON HAS OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WEDGING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY.

MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS. THIS WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. OVERALL KEPT MUCH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT WITH SOME INCREASE TO POPS IN THE TUE
NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

NOW TO THE SEVERE THREAT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE...BUT SOME RESERVATIONS LINGER...MAINLY
IN RELATION TO THE INSTABILITY. THERE ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD
LIMIT (PERHAPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY) THE DESTABILIZATION OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. FIRST...WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SECOND...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. THIS WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CUT CENTRAL ALABAMA OFF FROM THE RICHER AIRMASS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. BUT...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SOMEHOW DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL BACK OFF ON
WORDING SLIGHTLY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AND CHANGES TO
THE THREATS AND THREAT AREA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/EAST. BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...THE COLUMN DRIES
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. HIGHS WILL STAY GENERALLY
IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY
BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW THEN S AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  44  56  52  61 /  20  30  30  50  90
ANNISTON    55  47  57  52  62 /  20  30  30  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  56  47  59  57  64 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  59  47  61  56  66 /  10  10  30  50  90
CALERA      57  47  60  56  65 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      55  48  57  56  67 /  30  40  40  50  90
MONTGOMERY  59  49  63  58  68 /  20  30  30  50  90
TROY        57  50  62  59  68 /  30  40  40  50  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 211047
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  51  70  62  71 /  20  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   61  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   59  48  67  60  71 /  20  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  60  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      60  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  30  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 211047
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  51  70  62  71 /  20  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   61  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   59  48  67  60  71 /  20  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  60  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      60  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  30  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 211047
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  51  70  62  71 /  20  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   61  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   59  48  67  60  71 /  20  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  60  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      60  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  30  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 211047
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  51  70  62  71 /  20  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   61  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   59  48  67  60  71 /  20  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  60  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      60  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  30  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 211047
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  51  70  62  71 /  20  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   61  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   59  48  67  60  71 /  20  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  60  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      60  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  30  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 211047
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
447 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LIFT AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF GENERALLY OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC LATEST
BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW GENERALLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF NWFL STALLED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS PRECIP AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GENERATED MOSTLY FROM WEAK LAYER LIFT ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS VALUES TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOS NUMBERS GOING 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THEN
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY OVER TEXAS BUT THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS.  THE NAM AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
CLOSER TO PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND TAKE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT
STILL ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ECMWF/GFS MAY LEAD TO
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WHILE
HIGH POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA EITHER WAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE/STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AM NOT EXPECTING A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS HIGH AS NEAR
1000 J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL
BE PRESENT ON MONDAY INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2 BY TUESDAY AS THE
850 MB JET INCREASES FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30-40 KNOTS.  WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT...MAY SEE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DEEP LAYER LIFT INCREASES...THEN WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE TIMING WORDING AS IS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.  WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
ABOUT 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...POPS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURNING TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN TRENDING
WARMER TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BUILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 20.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.06Z THEN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 21.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  51  70  62  71 /  20  30  30  50  80
PENSACOLA   61  53  69  62  71 /  20  50  40  50  90
DESTIN      59  54  68  63  71 /  30  60  40  50  90
EVERGREEN   59  48  67  60  71 /  20  50  30  50  80
WAYNESBORO  60  45  67  59  70 /  10  10  20  40  80
CAMDEN      60  47  67  58  71 /  10  20  30  40  80
CRESTVIEW   60  49  68  59  70 /  30  50  40  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 210601
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 210601
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210601
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210601
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210601
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210601
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 210534 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1134 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MVFR
MIST/FOG AROUND DAYBREAK IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE AL
IN THE MORE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. VFR WEATHER OTHERWISE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING SE IN
THE AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE PIEDMONT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED LIGHT RAIN AT KHSV SUN EVENING
WITH VFR CIG/VIS VALUES EXPECTED.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210534 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1134 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MVFR
MIST/FOG AROUND DAYBREAK IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE AL
IN THE MORE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. VFR WEATHER OTHERWISE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING SE IN
THE AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE PIEDMONT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED LIGHT RAIN AT KHSV SUN EVENING
WITH VFR CIG/VIS VALUES EXPECTED.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
951 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS OF 00Z...CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS HAD DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS
BHM AND GAD...AND HAD ALREADY GONE SOUTH OF TCL. STRONGLY SUSPECT
THAT THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AT LEAST
TO EET...ANB AND ASN. BUT AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...ACCORDING TO
THE MODELS...THAT CLEARING LINE WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY START TO
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ITS DOUBTFUL MGM GETS ANY
CLEARING TONIGHT...AND ALMOST A CERTAINTY CONDITIONS STAY IFR AT
TOI FOR THE DURATION. TRYING TO TIME THE RE-ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
..AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  53  43  57  50 /  10  10  20  30  50
ANNISTON    38  55  46  58  51 /  10  20  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  37  56  46  60  54 /  10  10  20  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  34  59  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
CALERA      42  57  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
AUBURN      43  55  47  59  53 /  20  30  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  46  59  48  65  55 /  20  30  40  30  40
TROY        48  57  49  64  56 /  20  40  40  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 210351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
951 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS OF 00Z...CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS HAD DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS
BHM AND GAD...AND HAD ALREADY GONE SOUTH OF TCL. STRONGLY SUSPECT
THAT THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AT LEAST
TO EET...ANB AND ASN. BUT AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...ACCORDING TO
THE MODELS...THAT CLEARING LINE WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY START TO
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ITS DOUBTFUL MGM GETS ANY
CLEARING TONIGHT...AND ALMOST A CERTAINTY CONDITIONS STAY IFR AT
TOI FOR THE DURATION. TRYING TO TIME THE RE-ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
..AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  53  43  57  50 /  10  10  20  30  50
ANNISTON    38  55  46  58  51 /  10  20  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  37  56  46  60  54 /  10  10  20  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  34  59  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
CALERA      42  57  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
AUBURN      43  55  47  59  53 /  20  30  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  46  59  48  65  55 /  20  30  40  30  40
TROY        48  57  49  64  56 /  20  40  40  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 210351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
951 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS OF 00Z...CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS HAD DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS
BHM AND GAD...AND HAD ALREADY GONE SOUTH OF TCL. STRONGLY SUSPECT
THAT THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AT LEAST
TO EET...ANB AND ASN. BUT AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...ACCORDING TO
THE MODELS...THAT CLEARING LINE WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY START TO
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ITS DOUBTFUL MGM GETS ANY
CLEARING TONIGHT...AND ALMOST A CERTAINTY CONDITIONS STAY IFR AT
TOI FOR THE DURATION. TRYING TO TIME THE RE-ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
..AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  53  43  57  50 /  10  10  20  30  50
ANNISTON    38  55  46  58  51 /  10  20  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  37  56  46  60  54 /  10  10  20  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  34  59  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
CALERA      42  57  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
AUBURN      43  55  47  59  53 /  20  30  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  46  59  48  65  55 /  20  30  40  30  40
TROY        48  57  49  64  56 /  20  40  40  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 210330 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN NE AL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG FOR THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210330 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN NE AL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG FOR THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210330 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN NE AL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG FOR THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210330 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN NE AL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG FOR THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210330 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN NE AL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG FOR THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210330 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN NE AL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG FOR THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
603 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
...AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS OF 00Z...CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS HAD DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS
BHM AND GAD...AND HAD ALREADY GONE SOUTH OF TCL. STRONGLY SUSPECT
THAT THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AT LEAST
TO EET...ANB AND ASN. BUT AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...ACCORDING TO
THE MODELS...THAT CLEARING LINE WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY START TO
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ITS DOUBTFUL MGM GETS ANY
CLEARING TONIGHT...AND ALMOST A CERTAINTY CONDITIONS STAY IFR AT
TOI FOR THE DURATION. TRYING TO TIME THE RE-ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
603 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
...AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS OF 00Z...CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS HAD DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS
BHM AND GAD...AND HAD ALREADY GONE SOUTH OF TCL. STRONGLY SUSPECT
THAT THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AT LEAST
TO EET...ANB AND ASN. BUT AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...ACCORDING TO
THE MODELS...THAT CLEARING LINE WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY START TO
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ITS DOUBTFUL MGM GETS ANY
CLEARING TONIGHT...AND ALMOST A CERTAINTY CONDITIONS STAY IFR AT
TOI FOR THE DURATION. TRYING TO TIME THE RE-ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 202333 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 202333 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 202333 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 202333 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 202203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WEATHER FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GULF...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WITHIN REMNANT
WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS OF 3 PM CST. LOW
STRATUS HAS OTHERWISE HELD STRONG ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED SOCKED IN...WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 50S WHERE PEAKS OF SUN HAVE OCCURRED.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF I-65 THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE TRENDED SUNDAY HIGHS TOWARD COOLER
GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
LOWER 60S. /21

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. BENEATH THIS PATTERN...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
WHILE A COOL WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDE NORTHEAST ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS
TO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LESSER CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THESE
AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER
40S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 50S COASTAL ZONES.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO SHARPEN
UP AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS CAUSE SURFACE PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER THE PLAINS ON AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF CAUSING
DEWPOINTS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM 58 TO 63...RESPECTIVELY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INTRODUCING THUNDER LATE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
/10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...VIGOROUS ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WIND PROFILES RESPOND BY INCREASING AND VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AS
BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL...THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND SHEAR AND RESULTANT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...BRINGS CONCERNS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD VERY WELL
ACCOMPANY ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN DISCRETE STORM
CLUSTERS. OTHER HAZARDS IN ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS
SCENARIO HAS EDGED CONFIDENCE UPWARD...SUCH THAT FORECASTERS WILL
HEIGHTEN WORDING IN AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AN ORGANIZING...LINEAR CHARACTER TO STORMS IS FORECAST
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THEREAFTER. GIVEN THIS BEING 3 DAYS OUT...MORE DETAILS ON TIMING
WILL COME ON LATER FORECAST SHIFTS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. COULD STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND FAR EASTERN ZONES
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY AFTERNOON.
RAINFREE CONDITIONS FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SMALL POPS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

JUST IN TIME...COLDEST NIGHT IN THE OUTLOOK COMES CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH
LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S COAST. CHRISTMAS
DAY HIGHS CLOSE TO 60. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...IFR CEILINGS HAVE HELD STRONG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RISES TO
MVFR TO VFR LEVELS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. A MOIST NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. WE WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM OUT THROUGH 6 PM
CST...WHILE KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER MOST OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 21/32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  63  53  69  62 /  20  10  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   47  61  55  69  62 /  30  20  50  40  50
DESTIN      50  59  57  68  62 /  30  30  60  40  50
EVERGREEN   43  60  48  67  59 /  20  20  50  30  40
WAYNESBORO  40  61  48  66  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN      41  61  47  65  58 /  10  10  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   46  61  49  69  60 /  30  30  50  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 202203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WEATHER FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GULF...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WITHIN REMNANT
WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS OF 3 PM CST. LOW
STRATUS HAS OTHERWISE HELD STRONG ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED SOCKED IN...WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 50S WHERE PEAKS OF SUN HAVE OCCURRED.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF I-65 THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE TRENDED SUNDAY HIGHS TOWARD COOLER
GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
LOWER 60S. /21

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. BENEATH THIS PATTERN...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
WHILE A COOL WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDE NORTHEAST ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS
TO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LESSER CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THESE
AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER
40S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 50S COASTAL ZONES.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO SHARPEN
UP AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS CAUSE SURFACE PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER THE PLAINS ON AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF CAUSING
DEWPOINTS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM 58 TO 63...RESPECTIVELY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INTRODUCING THUNDER LATE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
/10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...VIGOROUS ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WIND PROFILES RESPOND BY INCREASING AND VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AS
BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL...THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND SHEAR AND RESULTANT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...BRINGS CONCERNS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD VERY WELL
ACCOMPANY ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN DISCRETE STORM
CLUSTERS. OTHER HAZARDS IN ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS
SCENARIO HAS EDGED CONFIDENCE UPWARD...SUCH THAT FORECASTERS WILL
HEIGHTEN WORDING IN AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AN ORGANIZING...LINEAR CHARACTER TO STORMS IS FORECAST
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THEREAFTER. GIVEN THIS BEING 3 DAYS OUT...MORE DETAILS ON TIMING
WILL COME ON LATER FORECAST SHIFTS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. COULD STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND FAR EASTERN ZONES
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY AFTERNOON.
RAINFREE CONDITIONS FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SMALL POPS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

JUST IN TIME...COLDEST NIGHT IN THE OUTLOOK COMES CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH
LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S COAST. CHRISTMAS
DAY HIGHS CLOSE TO 60. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...IFR CEILINGS HAVE HELD STRONG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RISES TO
MVFR TO VFR LEVELS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. A MOIST NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. WE WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM OUT THROUGH 6 PM
CST...WHILE KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER MOST OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 21/32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  63  53  69  62 /  20  10  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   47  61  55  69  62 /  30  20  50  40  50
DESTIN      50  59  57  68  62 /  30  30  60  40  50
EVERGREEN   43  60  48  67  59 /  20  20  50  30  40
WAYNESBORO  40  61  48  66  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN      41  61  47  65  58 /  10  10  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   46  61  49  69  60 /  30  30  50  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 202203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WEATHER FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GULF...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WITHIN REMNANT
WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS OF 3 PM CST. LOW
STRATUS HAS OTHERWISE HELD STRONG ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED SOCKED IN...WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 50S WHERE PEAKS OF SUN HAVE OCCURRED.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF I-65 THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE TRENDED SUNDAY HIGHS TOWARD COOLER
GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
LOWER 60S. /21

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. BENEATH THIS PATTERN...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
WHILE A COOL WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDE NORTHEAST ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS
TO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LESSER CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THESE
AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER
40S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 50S COASTAL ZONES.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO SHARPEN
UP AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS CAUSE SURFACE PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER THE PLAINS ON AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF CAUSING
DEWPOINTS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM 58 TO 63...RESPECTIVELY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INTRODUCING THUNDER LATE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
/10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...VIGOROUS ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WIND PROFILES RESPOND BY INCREASING AND VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AS
BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL...THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND SHEAR AND RESULTANT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...BRINGS CONCERNS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD VERY WELL
ACCOMPANY ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN DISCRETE STORM
CLUSTERS. OTHER HAZARDS IN ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS
SCENARIO HAS EDGED CONFIDENCE UPWARD...SUCH THAT FORECASTERS WILL
HEIGHTEN WORDING IN AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AN ORGANIZING...LINEAR CHARACTER TO STORMS IS FORECAST
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THEREAFTER. GIVEN THIS BEING 3 DAYS OUT...MORE DETAILS ON TIMING
WILL COME ON LATER FORECAST SHIFTS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. COULD STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND FAR EASTERN ZONES
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY AFTERNOON.
RAINFREE CONDITIONS FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SMALL POPS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

JUST IN TIME...COLDEST NIGHT IN THE OUTLOOK COMES CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH
LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S COAST. CHRISTMAS
DAY HIGHS CLOSE TO 60. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...IFR CEILINGS HAVE HELD STRONG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RISES TO
MVFR TO VFR LEVELS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. A MOIST NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. WE WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM OUT THROUGH 6 PM
CST...WHILE KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER MOST OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 21/32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  63  53  69  62 /  20  10  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   47  61  55  69  62 /  30  20  50  40  50
DESTIN      50  59  57  68  62 /  30  30  60  40  50
EVERGREEN   43  60  48  67  59 /  20  20  50  30  40
WAYNESBORO  40  61  48  66  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN      41  61  47  65  58 /  10  10  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   46  61  49  69  60 /  30  30  50  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 202203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WEATHER FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GULF...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WITHIN REMNANT
WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS OF 3 PM CST. LOW
STRATUS HAS OTHERWISE HELD STRONG ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED SOCKED IN...WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 50S WHERE PEAKS OF SUN HAVE OCCURRED.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF I-65 THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE TRENDED SUNDAY HIGHS TOWARD COOLER
GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
LOWER 60S. /21

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. BENEATH THIS PATTERN...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
WHILE A COOL WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDE NORTHEAST ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS
TO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LESSER CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THESE
AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER
40S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 50S COASTAL ZONES.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO SHARPEN
UP AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS CAUSE SURFACE PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER THE PLAINS ON AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF CAUSING
DEWPOINTS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM 58 TO 63...RESPECTIVELY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INTRODUCING THUNDER LATE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
/10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...VIGOROUS ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WIND PROFILES RESPOND BY INCREASING AND VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AS
BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL...THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND SHEAR AND RESULTANT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...BRINGS CONCERNS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD VERY WELL
ACCOMPANY ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN DISCRETE STORM
CLUSTERS. OTHER HAZARDS IN ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS
SCENARIO HAS EDGED CONFIDENCE UPWARD...SUCH THAT FORECASTERS WILL
HEIGHTEN WORDING IN AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AN ORGANIZING...LINEAR CHARACTER TO STORMS IS FORECAST
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THEREAFTER. GIVEN THIS BEING 3 DAYS OUT...MORE DETAILS ON TIMING
WILL COME ON LATER FORECAST SHIFTS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. COULD STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND FAR EASTERN ZONES
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY AFTERNOON.
RAINFREE CONDITIONS FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SMALL POPS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

JUST IN TIME...COLDEST NIGHT IN THE OUTLOOK COMES CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH
LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S COAST. CHRISTMAS
DAY HIGHS CLOSE TO 60. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...IFR CEILINGS HAVE HELD STRONG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RISES TO
MVFR TO VFR LEVELS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. A MOIST NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. WE WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM OUT THROUGH 6 PM
CST...WHILE KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER MOST OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 21/32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  63  53  69  62 /  20  10  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   47  61  55  69  62 /  30  20  50  40  50
DESTIN      50  59  57  68  62 /  30  30  60  40  50
EVERGREEN   43  60  48  67  59 /  20  20  50  30  40
WAYNESBORO  40  61  48  66  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN      41  61  47  65  58 /  10  10  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   46  61  49  69  60 /  30  30  50  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 202147
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
...AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
PREVENTED A LOT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT. THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT WILL BE KTCL, KBHM, AND KEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS COULD RISE A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. THE
CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
WELL...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     34  53  43  57  50 /  10  10  20  30  50
ANNISTON    37  55  46  58  51 /  10  20  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  38  56  46  60  54 /  10  10  20  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  37  59  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
CALERA      39  57  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
AUBURN      44  55  47  59  53 /  20  30  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  45  59  48  65  55 /  20  30  40  30  40
TROY        46  57  49  64  56 /  20  40  40  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 202147
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
...AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
PREVENTED A LOT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT. THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT WILL BE KTCL, KBHM, AND KEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS COULD RISE A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. THE
CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
WELL...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     34  53  43  57  50 /  10  10  20  30  50
ANNISTON    37  55  46  58  51 /  10  20  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  38  56  46  60  54 /  10  10  20  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  37  59  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
CALERA      39  57  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
AUBURN      44  55  47  59  53 /  20  30  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  45  59  48  65  55 /  20  30  40  30  40
TROY        46  57  49  64  56 /  20  40  40  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 201911
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    32  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
SHOALS        30  53  41  58 /   0  10  20  20
VINEMONT      33  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  30  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   33  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
FORT PAYNE    36  52  43  53 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201911
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    32  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
SHOALS        30  53  41  58 /   0  10  20  20
VINEMONT      33  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  30  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   33  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
FORT PAYNE    36  52  43  53 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201911
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    32  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
SHOALS        30  53  41  58 /   0  10  20  20
VINEMONT      33  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  30  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   33  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
FORT PAYNE    36  52  43  53 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201911
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    32  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
SHOALS        30  53  41  58 /   0  10  20  20
VINEMONT      33  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  30  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   33  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
FORT PAYNE    36  52  43  53 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201820
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN HAS PUSHED OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE CLOUDS
ARE GOING TO HANG AROUND FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-59. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
THIS MORNING...JUST NORTHWEST OF A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE.
FOR THOSE UNDER THE CLOUD DECK IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
MUCH HOPE FOR SUNSHINE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER.  LOWERED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
PREVENTED A LOT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT. THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT WILL BE KTCL, KBHM, AND KEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS COULD RISE A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. THE
CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
WELL...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  44  55  50 /  10  10  40  30  50
ANNISTON    39  55  47  56  51 /  10  20  50  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  47  60  54 /  10  10  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  39  57  47  60  53 /  10  10  30  30  40
CALERA      41  56  47  59  53 /  10  10  40  30  40
AUBURN      46  55  48  59  53 /  10  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  45  58  49  63  55 /  10  30  50  30  40
TROY        46  57  50  65  56 /  20  40  50  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201820
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN HAS PUSHED OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE CLOUDS
ARE GOING TO HANG AROUND FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-59. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
THIS MORNING...JUST NORTHWEST OF A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE.
FOR THOSE UNDER THE CLOUD DECK IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
MUCH HOPE FOR SUNSHINE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER.  LOWERED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
PREVENTED A LOT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT. THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT WILL BE KTCL, KBHM, AND KEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS COULD RISE A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. THE
CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
WELL...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  44  55  50 /  10  10  40  30  50
ANNISTON    39  55  47  56  51 /  10  20  50  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  47  60  54 /  10  10  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  39  57  47  60  53 /  10  10  30  30  40
CALERA      41  56  47  59  53 /  10  10  40  30  40
AUBURN      46  55  48  59  53 /  10  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  45  58  49  63  55 /  10  30  50  30  40
TROY        46  57  50  65  56 /  20  40  50  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201820
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN HAS PUSHED OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE CLOUDS
ARE GOING TO HANG AROUND FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-59. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
THIS MORNING...JUST NORTHWEST OF A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE.
FOR THOSE UNDER THE CLOUD DECK IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
MUCH HOPE FOR SUNSHINE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER.  LOWERED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
PREVENTED A LOT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT. THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT WILL BE KTCL, KBHM, AND KEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS COULD RISE A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. THE
CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
WELL...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  44  55  50 /  10  10  40  30  50
ANNISTON    39  55  47  56  51 /  10  20  50  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  47  60  54 /  10  10  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  39  57  47  60  53 /  10  10  30  30  40
CALERA      41  56  47  59  53 /  10  10  40  30  40
AUBURN      46  55  48  59  53 /  10  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  45  58  49  63  55 /  10  30  50  30  40
TROY        46  57  50  65  56 /  20  40  50  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201820
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN HAS PUSHED OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE CLOUDS
ARE GOING TO HANG AROUND FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-59. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
THIS MORNING...JUST NORTHWEST OF A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE.
FOR THOSE UNDER THE CLOUD DECK IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
MUCH HOPE FOR SUNSHINE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER.  LOWERED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
PREVENTED A LOT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT. THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT WILL BE KTCL, KBHM, AND KEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS COULD RISE A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. THE
CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
WELL...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  44  55  50 /  10  10  40  30  50
ANNISTON    39  55  47  56  51 /  10  20  50  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  47  60  54 /  10  10  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  39  57  47  60  53 /  10  10  30  30  40
CALERA      41  56  47  59  53 /  10  10  40  30  40
AUBURN      46  55  48  59  53 /  10  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  45  58  49  63  55 /  10  30  50  30  40
TROY        46  57  50  65  56 /  20  40  50  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 201756
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A THIN LAYER OF
STRATUS BLANKETING DE KALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THESE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RUC/NAM RUNS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY THIS EARLY IN THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201756
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A THIN LAYER OF
STRATUS BLANKETING DE KALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THESE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RUC/NAM RUNS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY THIS EARLY IN THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201756
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A THIN LAYER OF
STRATUS BLANKETING DE KALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THESE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RUC/NAM RUNS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY THIS EARLY IN THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201756
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A THIN LAYER OF
STRATUS BLANKETING DE KALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THESE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RUC/NAM RUNS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY THIS EARLY IN THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 201721 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1121 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
IS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND TOWARD THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LIGHT
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AS OF 11 AM CST. WE HAVE ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD ACROSS MOST AREAS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE HAVE KEPT POPS GOING GENERALLY ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A MOBILE...EVERGREEN...LUVERNE LINE WHERE WEAK LIFT
MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OTHERWISE STILL
INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA STILL REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH LOW
STRATUS LATE THIS MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S AT BEST
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. /21

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE
STRONGEST FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WHILE CONTINUING TO
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER MOST INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE...AND 4 TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 6
TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...IFR CEILINGS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE TO MVFR
CATEGORIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MOIST NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A KMOB...K79J LINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

MARINE...HAD TO UPDATE THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY FOR EARLY
MORNING DRAINAGE ALONG THE COAST. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY
ENHANCED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF THE AL..MS AND NWFL COAST. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH  MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REACHING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH BROAD
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL WEAKENS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EAST. BOTH THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT DRIFTING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF TX BY 12Z SUN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS A BIG DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE PROBABLY TO WARM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES FROM
BOTH THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS REASONING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST AREAS IN NWFL. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GOING A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS, AS A RESULT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT/TEXAS
SURFACE LOW.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION INTERACT WITH A PREEXISTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 290-300K LAYER SUNDAY WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE 290-300K LAYER...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS PORTION AND THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION...THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION AND CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN
GULF INVERTED SURFACE TROF...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE LAND
PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OR
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 850 MB JET INCREASES
TO 35-45 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXITING TO THE
EAST POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY
NIGHT.  IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT 0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
0-1 KM HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT TO ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN SMALL POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. /29

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20.15Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING
CIGS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  48  63  53  69 /  20  10  30  50  20
PENSACOLA   56  50  63  55  69 /  40  20  50  70  40
DESTIN      57  53  62  57  68 /  50  20  60  70  40
EVERGREEN   54  44  60  49  67 /  30  10  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  54  40  60  47  66 /  10  10  20  30  20
CAMDEN      54  41  60  47  65 /  20  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   56  48  63  52  69 /  40  20  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$

21/10





000
FXUS64 KHUN 201640
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A THIN LAYER OF
STRATUS BLANKETING DE KALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THESE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RUC/NAM RUNS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY THIS EARLY IN THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 539 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH 00Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES
CLEARING FURTHER. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TERMINALS ON SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201640
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A THIN LAYER OF
STRATUS BLANKETING DE KALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THESE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RUC/NAM RUNS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY THIS EARLY IN THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 539 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH 00Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES
CLEARING FURTHER. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TERMINALS ON SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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