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000
FXUS64 KBMX 240924
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
424 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE CAUSED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
EXTREMELY DRY BELOW THESE CLOUDS AS INDICATED BY VIRGA ON THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE RADAR VIEW. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH MILD NORTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE.

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON SATURDAY AS A
RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO JUST A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF
RECORD LEVELS FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE MOISTURE TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FORCING MECHANISM...THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS
FORWARD PROGRESSION. WITH FORWARD SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
IN QUESTION...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW BROADBRUSHED 20 POPS ACROSS
THE CWA FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLIDING THROUGH RIGHT
NOW...CAUSING CIRRUS TO BE SCT TO BKN. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER
CLOSER TO 12Z AND CLEAR AFTER 18Z ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS.
VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  43  77  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    73  44  77  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  74  47  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  75  46  80  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      74  48  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      74  49  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  76  47  80  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        75  44  78  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/16





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000
FXUS64 KMOB 240837
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA ATTM MOVES EAST...THE CLOUD OVER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT MOVES OFF...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST...TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO
BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND KEEP
THE FA UNDER LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

EVEN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD A BIT OVER THE
FA...AM EXPECTING THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH COOLER AIR
OVER THE FA AND KEEP TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL. /16

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
RESULTS IN A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING...
BUT LOWS WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AFTER THAT AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

A DEEP LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE MONDAY AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.25-1.5 INCHES BY MIDWEEK...BUT THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WHILE
HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...WILL ONLY
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WED/THU AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL. ANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DELAYED
TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. /16

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  50  78  55  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  53  79  58  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  55  78  61  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  78  50  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  76  44  80  51  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      76  43  78  50  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  79  51  83 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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000
FXUS64 KHUN 240531 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1231 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 837 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
AN UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR
SKY COVER. EXPECTING MRNG LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER NW AL TO THE MID
40S ELSEWHERE. 00Z U/A FROM OHX/BMX ARE VERY DRY THUS NOT EXPECTING
ANY PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MRNG
(AFTER 12Z) AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TN VALLEY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER TROF AXIS WAS ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER ATTM.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ARND 10Z/11Z BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE TN VALLEY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 240453 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
24.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH ONLY BROKEN TO
OCCASIONAL OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS (~15000 FEET) EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 24.17Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FROM OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SIGNAL ITS PASSAGE THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT. THIS INITIAL CLOUD CLOVER WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...AND
COUNTERACT THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASED VIEW OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE FA...CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /16

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING
FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  77  49  77  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  78  53  78  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  76  55  77  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  77  43  77  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  43  76  45  79  51 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  77  43  78  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  78  42  79  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 240453 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
24.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH ONLY BROKEN TO
OCCASIONAL OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS (~15000 FEET) EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 24.17Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FROM OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SIGNAL ITS PASSAGE THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT. THIS INITIAL CLOUD CLOVER WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...AND
COUNTERACT THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASED VIEW OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE FA...CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /16

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING
FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  77  49  77  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  78  53  78  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  76  55  77  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  77  43  77  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  43  76  45  79  51 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  77  43  78  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  78  42  79  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 240445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING WHICH HAS SLOWED THE RATE OF COOLING. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
AS THE WAVE PASSES. UPDATES ON THE WAY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLIDING THROUGH RIGHT
NOW...CAUSING CIRRUS TO BE SCT TO BKN. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER
CLOSER TO 12Z AND CLEAR AFTER 18Z ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS.
VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 240254
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
954 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING WHICH HAS SLOWED THE RATE OF COOLING. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
AS THE WAVE PASSES. UPDATES ON THE WAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE FORECAST UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE.

08/MK


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 240254
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
954 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING WHICH HAS SLOWED THE RATE OF COOLING. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
AS THE WAVE PASSES. UPDATES ON THE WAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE FORECAST UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE.

08/MK


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 240137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
837 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR
SKY COVER. EXPECTING MRNG LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER NW AL TO THE MID
40S ELSEWHERE. 00Z U/A FROM OHX/BMX ARE VERY DRY THUS NOT EXPECTING
ANY PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MRNG
(AFTER 12Z) AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TN VALLEY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 556 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...5H TROF AXIS IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN RIVER.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 5H TROF WAS MAINLY BKN AC/CI CLOUDS. SINCE THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS VERY DRY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z
FRIDAY MRNG...EXPECT AC/CI CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS AS EVIDENCED BY QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS TO LESSEN TOWARD MORNING. DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT...HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS TEMP
MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER UNTIL AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIGHTLY BUMP UP TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE SOME WEAK 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED LESSENING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL STALLS OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN HAS THE
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BEFORE SETTLING ON A FINAL SOLUTION INVOLVING THIS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 232329 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
629 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 60S OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...JUST HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS BEING ADVERTISED A BIT
STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE 80S ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. WE COULD BE AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WE MIGHT ACTUALLY SEE
A FEW DROPS OF RAIN BEFORE WE GET INTO NOVEMBER. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENTER INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ENTERS INTO THE STATE IT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE FORECAST UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  72  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    41  73  45  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  74  48  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  43  75  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  74  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      46  74  49  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  45  77  48  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        42  76  44  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

56/08






000
FXUS64 KMOB 232326 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
24.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH ONLY BROKEN TO
OCCASIONAL OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS (~15000 FEET) EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 24.18Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FROM OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SIGNAL ITS PASSAGE THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT. THIS INITIAL CLOUD CLOVER WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...AND
COUNTERACT THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASED VIEW OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE FA...CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /16

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING
FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  77  49  77  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  78  53  78  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  76  55  77  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  77  43  77  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  43  76  45  79  51 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  77  43  78  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  78  42  79  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 232256
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
556 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS AS EVIDENCED BY QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS TO LESSEN TOWARD MORNING. DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT...HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS TEMP
MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER UNTIL AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIGHTLY BUMP UP TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE SOME WEAK 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED LESSENING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL STALLS OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN HAS THE
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BEFORE SETTLING ON A FINAL SOLUTION INVOLVING THIS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...5H TROF AXIS IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN RIVER.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 5H TROF WAS MAINLY BKN AC/CI CLOUDS. SINCE THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS VERY DRY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z
FRIDAY MRNG...EXPECT AC/CI CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 232046
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
346 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 60S OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...JUST HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS BEING ADVERTISED A BIT
STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE 80S ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. WE COULD BE AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WE MIGHT ACTUALLY SEE
A FEW DROPS OF RAIN BEFORE WE GET INTO NOVEMBER. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENTER INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ENTERS INTO THE STATE IT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  72  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    41  73  45  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  74  48  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  43  75  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  74  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      46  74  49  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  45  77  48  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        42  76  44  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 232025
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FROM OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SIGNAL ITS PASSAGE THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT. THIS INITIAL CLOUD CLOVER WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...AND
COUNTERACT THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASED VIEW OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE FA...CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /16

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING
FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  77  49  77  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  78  53  78  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  76  55  77  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  77  43  77  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  43  76  45  79  51 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  77  43  78  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  78  42  79  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 231951
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS AS EVIDENCED BY QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS TO LESSEN TOWARD MORNING. DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT...HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS TEMP
MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER UNTIL AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIGHTLY BUMP UP TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE SOME WEAK 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED LESSENING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL STALLS OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN HAS THE
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BEFORE SETTLING ON A FINAL SOLUTION INVOLVING THIS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z/24. THE TAIL
END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL INCREASE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS
WILL NOT FALL BELOW 10KFT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP FOG AT BAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND LGT NNW FLOW WILL RESUME.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  70  46  77 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        43  71  46  79 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      45  70  46  76 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  42  67  45  75 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  70  43  74 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    42  72  44  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231951
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS AS EVIDENCED BY QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS TO LESSEN TOWARD MORNING. DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT...HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS TEMP
MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER UNTIL AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIGHTLY BUMP UP TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE SOME WEAK 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED LESSENING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL STALLS OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN HAS THE
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BEFORE SETTLING ON A FINAL SOLUTION INVOLVING THIS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z/24. THE TAIL
END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL INCREASE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS
WILL NOT FALL BELOW 10KFT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP FOG AT BAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND LGT NNW FLOW WILL RESUME.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  70  46  77 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        43  71  46  79 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      45  70  46  76 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  42  67  45  75 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  70  43  74 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    42  72  44  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231732 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1059 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY YET AGAIN, BUT THERE IS A LITTLE MORE OF NOTE THIS
MORNING DUE TO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PUSHING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS, AND MISSOURI INDICATE LITTLE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CLOUDS DO GET LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE NOT
HAMPERED TEMPERATURES YET, THOUGH, AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S AFTER A CHILLY START.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY, AND BY THE END OF THE DAY,
SKY COVER WILL BE ALMOST COMPLETELY OVERCAST--BUT ALSO EXCLUSIVELY
ABOVE ROUGHLY 15-20,000 FT, PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. DEEP, VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP OR REACH THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MAXIMUM HEATING, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO, OR JUST UNDER YESTERDAY`S VALUES.

THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, BUT SKY COVER WILL BE UPDATED TO
REFLECT ONGOING SATELLITE AND OBSERVED TRENDS, AND WEATHER WILL BE
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF FOG AND FROST.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z/24. THE TAIL
END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL INCREASE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS
WILL NOT FALL BELOW 10KFT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP FOG AT BAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND LGT NNW FLOW WILL RESUME.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 231724
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE VERY
CRISP 30S AND 40S THAT WERE OBSERVED AT SUNRISE. PWATS ON THE 12Z
KBMX SOUNDING CAME IN AT 0.19 INCHES THIS MORNING...WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS THE VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD WILL ONLY IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
SPREADING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. UPDATES ARE
ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 231706 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1210 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AT
NOONTIME. TEMP CURVE ALSO ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
10Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWFA AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKING EASTWARD...MOVING
FROM E TX TO NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z FRI. WITH NO RETURN OR
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW EXTRA MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE SLIGHTLY
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE REGION
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANOTHER DAY OF NORMAL HIGHS (MID TO
UPPER 70S) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW NORMAL (MID
TO UPPER 40S) GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS
TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE BY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-WED WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES ALSO INCREASING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT THEN REBUILD SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  49  77  48  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  54  77  52  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  56  76  54  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  76  43  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  74  43  76  44  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      74  42  76  44  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  78  41  80 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 231706 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1210 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AT
NOONTIME. TEMP CURVE ALSO ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
10Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWFA AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKING EASTWARD...MOVING
FROM E TX TO NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z FRI. WITH NO RETURN OR
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW EXTRA MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE SLIGHTLY
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE REGION
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANOTHER DAY OF NORMAL HIGHS (MID TO
UPPER 70S) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW NORMAL (MID
TO UPPER 40S) GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS
TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE BY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-WED WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES ALSO INCREASING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT THEN REBUILD SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  49  77  48  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  54  77  52  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  56  76  54  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  76  43  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  74  43  76  44  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      74  42  76  44  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  78  41  80 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 231635
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE VERY
CRISP 30S AND 40S THAT WERE OBSERVED AT SUNRISE. PWATS ON THE 12Z
KBMX SOUNDING CAME IN AT 0.19 INCHES THIS MORNING...WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS THE VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD WILL ONLY IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
SPREADING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. UPDATES ARE
ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL A VERY NICE TAF CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL WORK IN AFTER 00Z.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  40  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    70  41  73  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  70  45  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  43  75  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      70  46  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      71  46  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  73  45  77  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        72  42  76  44  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 231635
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE VERY
CRISP 30S AND 40S THAT WERE OBSERVED AT SUNRISE. PWATS ON THE 12Z
KBMX SOUNDING CAME IN AT 0.19 INCHES THIS MORNING...WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS THE VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD WILL ONLY IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
SPREADING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. UPDATES ARE
ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL A VERY NICE TAF CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL WORK IN AFTER 00Z.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  40  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    70  41  73  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  70  45  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  43  75  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      70  46  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      71  46  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  73  45  77  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        72  42  76  44  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 231559 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1059 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FORTHCOMING TO SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY YET AGAIN, BUT THERE IS A LITTLE MORE OF NOTE THIS
MORNING DUE TO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PUSHING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS, AND MISSOURI INDICATE LITTLE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CLOUDS DO GET LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE NOT
HAMPERED TEMPERATURES YET, THOUGH, AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S AFTER A CHILLY START.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY, AND BY THE END OF THE DAY,
SKY COVER WILL BE ALMOST COMPLETELY OVERCAST--BUT ALSO EXCLUSIVELY
ABOVE ROUGHLY 15-20,000 FT, PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. DEEP, VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP OR REACH THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MAXIMUM HEATING, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO, OR JUST UNDER YESTERDAY`S VALUES.

THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, BUT SKY COVER WILL BE UPDATED TO
REFLECT ONGOING SATELLITE AND OBSERVED TRENDS, AND WEATHER WILL BE
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF FOG AND FROST.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/24. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING BUT THIS WILL RESULT
IN CIGS BTWN 12-15K FT. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ATTM.

DJN.83

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH NORMALLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEING DISRUPTED BY LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS...WILL RETAIN PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AND PATCHY FROST FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA -- ALTHOUGH AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT BOTH AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A
WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER -- POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAINLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME...WEAK NATURE OF TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
SPRINKLES. DESPITE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW MIXING LAYER WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CONVERSELY...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON
EXPECTED AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER -- WITH THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG BEING
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS BY
3-7 DEGREES. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A HIGHER THREAT FOR FOG WILL EXIST IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN FORECASTING THE CENTER OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY MORNING -- AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
SHEAR APART AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS -- AND ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE RATHER WEAK WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THEN A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231559 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1059 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FORTHCOMING TO SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY YET AGAIN, BUT THERE IS A LITTLE MORE OF NOTE THIS
MORNING DUE TO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PUSHING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS, AND MISSOURI INDICATE LITTLE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CLOUDS DO GET LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE NOT
HAMPERED TEMPERATURES YET, THOUGH, AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S AFTER A CHILLY START.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY, AND BY THE END OF THE DAY,
SKY COVER WILL BE ALMOST COMPLETELY OVERCAST--BUT ALSO EXCLUSIVELY
ABOVE ROUGHLY 15-20,000 FT, PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. DEEP, VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP OR REACH THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MAXIMUM HEATING, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO, OR JUST UNDER YESTERDAY`S VALUES.

THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, BUT SKY COVER WILL BE UPDATED TO
REFLECT ONGOING SATELLITE AND OBSERVED TRENDS, AND WEATHER WILL BE
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF FOG AND FROST.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/24. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING BUT THIS WILL RESULT
IN CIGS BTWN 12-15K FT. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ATTM.

DJN.83

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH NORMALLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEING DISRUPTED BY LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS...WILL RETAIN PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AND PATCHY FROST FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA -- ALTHOUGH AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT BOTH AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A
WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER -- POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAINLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME...WEAK NATURE OF TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
SPRINKLES. DESPITE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW MIXING LAYER WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CONVERSELY...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON
EXPECTED AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER -- WITH THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG BEING
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS BY
3-7 DEGREES. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A HIGHER THREAT FOR FOG WILL EXIST IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN FORECASTING THE CENTER OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY MORNING -- AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
SHEAR APART AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS -- AND ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE RATHER WEAK WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THEN A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231118 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH NORMALLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEING DISRUPTED BY LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS...WILL RETAIN PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AND PATCHY FROST FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA -- ALTHOUGH AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT BOTH AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A
WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER -- POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAINLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME...WEAK NATURE OF TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
SPRINKLES. DESPITE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW MIXING LAYER WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CONVERSELY...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON
EXPECTED AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER -- WITH THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG BEING
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS BY
3-7 DEGREES. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A HIGHER THREAT FOR FOG WILL EXIST IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN FORECASTING THE CENTER OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY MORNING -- AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
SHEAR APART AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS -- AND ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE RATHER WEAK WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THEN A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/24. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING BUT THIS WILL RESULT
IN CIGS BTWN 12-15K FT. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ATTM.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 231113
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
613 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS ALABAMA. THIS HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
THIS MORNING WITH SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR 50F. ABUNDANT DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH. ALTHOUGH A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...
IT WILL HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO
IMPACT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS BY SATURDAY. AS A FAST-MOVING BROAD
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND
MOVE EASTWARD BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO ALABAMA AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL A VERY NICE TAF CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL WORK IN AFTER 00Z.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 230945
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWFA AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKING EASTWARD...MOVING
FROM E TX TO NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z FRI. WITH NO RETURN OR
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW EXTRA MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE SLIGHTLY
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE REGION
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANOTHER DAY OF NORMAL HIGHS (MID TO
UPPER 70S) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW NORMAL (MID
TO UPPER 40S) GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS
TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE BY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-WED WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES ALSO INCREASING. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 24.12Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT THEN REBUILD SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  49  77  48  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  54  77  52  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  56  76  54  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  76  43  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  74  43  76  44  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      74  42  76  44  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  78  41  80 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 230945
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWFA AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKING EASTWARD...MOVING
FROM E TX TO NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z FRI. WITH NO RETURN OR
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW EXTRA MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE SLIGHTLY
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE REGION
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANOTHER DAY OF NORMAL HIGHS (MID TO
UPPER 70S) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW NORMAL (MID
TO UPPER 40S) GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS
TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE BY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-WED WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES ALSO INCREASING. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 24.12Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT THEN REBUILD SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  49  77  48  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  54  77  52  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  56  76  54  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  76  43  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  74  43  76  44  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      74  42  76  44  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  78  41  80 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 230940
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH NORMALLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEING DISRUPTED BY LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS...WILL RETAIN PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AND PATCHY FROST FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA -- ALTHOUGH AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT BOTH AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A
WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER -- POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAINLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME...WEAK NATURE OF TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
SPRINKLES. DESPITE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW MIXING LAYER WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CONVERSELY...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON
EXPECTED AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER -- WITH THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG BEING
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS BY
3-7 DEGREES. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A HIGHER THREAT FOR FOG WILL EXIST IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN FORECASTING THE CENTER OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY MORNING -- AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
SHEAR APART AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS -- AND ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE RATHER WEAK WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THEN A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE NIGHT. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR FOG/MIST
AROUND DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN IT IN THE PREVAILING...THEREFORE HAVE A TEMPO PERIOD NOTED
AT DAYBREAK THU. VFR WEATHER OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE...WITH NE WINDS
IN THE 5-10KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THU EVENING.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  45  70  46 /   0  10   0   0
SHOALS        68  43  71  46 /   0  10   0   0
VINEMONT      67  45  70  46 /   0  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  65  42  67  45 /   0  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   67  43  70  43 /   0  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    68  42  72  44 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 230926
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
426 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS ALABAMA. THIS HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
THIS MORNING WITH SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR 50F. ABUNDANT DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH. ALTHOUGH A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...
IT WILL HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO
IMPACT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS BY SATURDAY. AS A FAST-MOVING BROAD
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND
MOVE EASTWARD BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO ALABAMA AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CONCLUDED THESEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  40  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    70  41  73  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  70  45  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  43  75  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      70  46  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      71  46  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  73  45  77  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        72  42  76  44  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/88






000
FXUS64 KHUN 230526 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1226 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 923 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTROLS
THE WEATHER. THIS HIGH...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WAS BRINGING A LIGHT N-NE FLOW TO THIS REGION. TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGH...A NOR`EASTER CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY JUST
OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EFFECTS FROM THIS LOW SHOULD STAY
WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. GIVEN THAT
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...THERE IS A RISK
FOR FROSTING DURING THE PREDAWN IN THE COLDER SPOTS AROUND THE
VALLEY. ALONG WITH FROSTING...PATCHY FOG...SOME OF IT LOCALLY DENSE
COULD ALSO FORM IN SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE AREAS TOO. WILL KEEP
THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY THU AM.

ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS.
THOSE CHANGES WILL NOT MAKE WORDING CHANGES TO THE ZONES. WILL
SEND OUT UPDATED AFM/PFM SHORTLY...SHOWING THOSE CHANGES.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR FOG/MIST AROUND DAYBREAK
AT THE TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN IT
IN THE PREVAILING...THEREFORE HAVE A TEMPO PERIOD NOTED AT DAYBREAK
THU. VFR WEATHER OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE...WITH NE WINDS IN THE
5-10KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET THU EVENING.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ005-006-009.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 230455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AVIATION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO PATTERN
FROM YESTERDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER
40S EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...AND LOWER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. IN GENERAL...THESE MIN TEMPS WILL BE RANGING FROM AROUND
8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR THURSDAY
NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 70S COASTAL. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE
COAST) NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. 12/DS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING COURTESY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX. THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS PRETTY MUCH NIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY LIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE APPROACHING FEATURES COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND UPWARDS BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE LOW
INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  75  48  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  76  52  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  74  54  76  56 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  43  76  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  75  42  78  43 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 230455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AVIATION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO PATTERN
FROM YESTERDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER
40S EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...AND LOWER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. IN GENERAL...THESE MIN TEMPS WILL BE RANGING FROM AROUND
8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR THURSDAY
NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 70S COASTAL. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE
COAST) NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. 12/DS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING COURTESY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX. THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS PRETTY MUCH NIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY LIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE APPROACHING FEATURES COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND UPWARDS BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE LOW
INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  75  48  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  76  52  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  74  54  76  56 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  43  76  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  75  42  78  43 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KBMX 230446
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NORTH OF MAINE ARCHES AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS SETUP...LOCAL LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AT
10PM...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
AND WINDS CALM TO LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY NORTHWEST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CONCLUDED THESEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 230446
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NORTH OF MAINE ARCHES AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS SETUP...LOCAL LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AT
10PM...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
AND WINDS CALM TO LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY NORTHWEST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CONCLUDED THESEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 230350 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1050 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO PATTERN
FROM YESTERDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER
40S EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...AND LOWER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. IN GENERAL...THESE MIN TEMPS WILL BE RANGING FROM AROUND
8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR THURSDAY
NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 70S COASTAL. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE
COAST) NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. 12/DS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING COURTESY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX. THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS PRETTY MUCH NIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY LIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE APPROACHING FEATURES COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND UPWARDS BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23/18Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE. 12/DS

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE LOW
INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  75  48  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  76  52  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  74  54  76  56 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  43  76  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  75  42  78  43 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 230304 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1004 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NORTH OF MAINE ARCHES AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS SETUP...LOCAL LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AT
10PM...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
AND WINDS CALM TO LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY NORTHWEST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

88


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

IN TERMS OF THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...YOU REALLY
CAN`T GET MUCH BETTER THAN THIS. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS WERE
BEING OBSERVED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VERY CRISP
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AREAWIDE. OF
COURSE...A FEW OF THE VERY SHELTERED MICROCLIMATE LOCATIONS COULD
END UP OBSERVING A VERY LOCALIZED FROST. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT.

IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...IT APPEARS WE
WON`T SEE ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL NOVEMBER. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
UPPER HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EXPECTED. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY THIS
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  69  42  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  71  42  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  42  71  44  74  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  41  74  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      43  71  44  74  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      43  70  44  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  43  74  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        41  73  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 230223 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
923 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTROLS
THE WEATHER. THIS HIGH...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WAS BRINGING A LIGHT N-NE FLOW TO THIS REGION. TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGH...A NOR`EASTER CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY JUST
OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EFFECTS FROM THIS LOW SHOULD STAY
WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. GIVEN THAT
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...THERE IS A RISK
FOR FROSTING DURING THE PREDAWN IN THE COLDER SPOTS AROUND THE
VALLEY. ALONG WITH FROSTING...PATCHY FOG...SOME OF IT LOCALLY DENSE
COULD ALSO FORM IN SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE AREAS TOO. WILL KEEP
THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY THU AM.

ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS.
THOSE CHANGES WILL NOT MAKE WORDING CHANGES TO THE ZONES. WILL
SEND OUT UPDATED AFM/PFM SHORTLY...SHOWING THOSE CHANGES.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...HAVE LEFT MVFR FOG/MIST IN BEFORE DAYBREAK
THU AT BOTH TERMINALS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING AND LIGHT ENE
WINDS INTO THUR AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WERE RANGING FROM AROUND 60
DEGREES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO GENERALLY THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A
LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR RIVERS. TEMPS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR MY SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BORDERING
COUNTIES FROM LIMESTONE COUNTY EASTWARD FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE THIS
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE
COOLER NAM AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE AND THE WARMER GFS TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY 00Z MONDAY...A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE
UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW INVOLVING INTRODUCING PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE TRACK RECORD OF THE PREVIOUS FEW COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE
AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO SEE SOME MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ005-006-009.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 222326
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

IN TERMS OF THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...YOU REALLY
CAN`T GET MUCH BETTER THAN THIS. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS WERE
BEING OBSERVED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VERY CRISP
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AREAWIDE. OF
COURSE...A FEW OF THE VERY SHELTERED MICROCLIMATE LOCATIONS COULD
END UP OBSERVING A VERY LOCALIZED FROST. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT.

IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...IT APPEARS WE
WON`T SEE ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL NOVEMBER. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
UPPER HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EXPECTED. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY THIS
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 222325 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WERE RANGING FROM AROUND 60
DEGREES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO GENERALLY THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A
LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR RIVERS. TEMPS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR MY SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BORDERING
COUNTIES FROM LIMESTONE COUNTY EASTWARD FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE THIS
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE
COOLER NAM AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE AND THE WARMER GFS TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY 00Z MONDAY...A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE
UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW INVOLVING INTRODUCING PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE TRACK RECORD OF THE PREVIOUS FEW COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE
AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO SEE SOME MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...HAVE LEFT MVFR FOG/MIST IN BEFORE DAYBREAK
THU AT BOTH TERMINALS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING AND LIGHT ENE
WINDS INTO THUR AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ005-006-009.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 222059
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO PATTERN
FROM YESTERDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER
40S EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...AND LOWER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. IN GENERAL...THESE MIN TEMPS WILL BE RANGING FROM AROUND
8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR THURSDAY
NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 70S COASTAL. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE
COAST) NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. 12/DS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING COURTESY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX. THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS PRETTY MUCH NIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY LIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE APPROACHING FEATURES COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND UPWARDS BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23/18Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE LOW
INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  75  48  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  76  52  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  74  54  76  56 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  43  76  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  75  42  78  43 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 222001
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
301 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

IN TERMS OF THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...YOU REALLY
CAN`T GET MUCH BETTER THAN THIS. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS WERE
BEING OBSERVED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VERY CRISP
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AREAWIDE. OF
COURSE...A FEW OF THE VERY SHELTERED MICROCLIMATE LOCATIONS COULD
END UP OBSERVING A VERY LOCALIZED FROST. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT.

IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...IT APPEARS WE
WON`T SEE ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL NOVEMBER. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
UPPER HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EXPECTED. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY THIS
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  69  42  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  71  42  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  42  71  44  74  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  41  74  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      41  71  44  74  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      43  70  44  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  74  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        39  73  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 221928
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WERE RANGING FROM AROUND 60
DEGREES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO GENERALLY THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A
LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR RIVERS. TEMPS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR MY SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BORDERING
COUNTIES FROM LIMESTONE COUNTY EASTWARD FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE THIS
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE
COOLER NAM AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE AND THE WARMER GFS TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY 00Z MONDAY...A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE
UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW INVOLVING INTRODUCING PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE TRACK RECORD OF THE PREVIOUS FEW COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE
AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO SEE SOME MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 16 HOURS WITH GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 15-17 KTS. FOG FORMATION
IS THEN LIKELY BTWN 10-13Z NEAR RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS--IMPACTING
BOTH KHSV/KMSL. HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
WITH LOWER DROPS IN VIS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
AFTER 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    38  68  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        38  68  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      38  68  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  36  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   37  68  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    36  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ005-006-009.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 221808
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
108 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23/18Z. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE LA/TX BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST REACHING CENTRAL MS AND LOWER LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED MOSTLY OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH SETTLING OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY 12Z THU. TO THE SOUTH TD 9 LOCATED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
12Z THU LEADING TO A BETTER PRES/THERMAL GRADIENT GENERALLY OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND NORTHERN GULF BY 12Z THU...THUS
ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
SFC TEMPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH TONIGHT ALSO...THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THIS MAY START TO SOUND LIKE
A BROKEN RECORD...BUT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM THE END
OF THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WITH BELOW
NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED THU-FRI AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE MIDWEST SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDS EAST. WEEKEND
HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT LOWS WILL STILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING...WILL MOVE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB IN
RESPONSE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. DESPITE
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY DRY AND THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23.12Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH 32.12Z. 32/EE

MARINE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND NORTH COMBINED WITH TD
9 OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE LOWER GULF WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THU...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD HELP LIFT TD 9 TO THE
NORTHEAST POSSIBLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA BY THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TD 9 BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH FRI WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE ROBUST WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT EVENTUALLY EMERGES INTO THE SE GULF AND FL
STRAITS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WITH THIS PATTERN WE COULD SEE
EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MOSTLY DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY AND
LOCATION OF TD 9 BY LATE IN THE WEEK. BETTER SWELL MOSTLY FROM THE
SOUTH WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS EAST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  75  47  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  75  51  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      55  74  57  75  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  77  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  76  42  77  44 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 221800
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRODUCING DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER ALABAMA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TODAYS
FORECAST.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  70  41  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    41  70  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  71  45  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  43  74  44  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      44  71  45  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      46  71  46  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  44  75  45  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        41  74  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 221800
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRODUCING DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER ALABAMA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TODAYS
FORECAST.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  70  41  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    41  70  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  71  45  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  43  74  44  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      44  71  45  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      46  71  46  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  44  75  45  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        41  74  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 221710 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1210 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1027 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT, DRY, SUNNY DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SOLID DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH SOME PATCHY
STRATOCU PUSHING SW TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, THOUGH THEY HAVE
NOT MADE IT FAR BEYOND CROSSVILLE OR CHATTANOOGA. THIS IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SW FLANK OF THE
CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE STRATOCU MIGHT FILTER A
LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE HUNTSVILLE CWFA, BUT IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH
IMPACT, EVEN IN FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE RIGHT ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 60S. ASIDE FROM A FEW VERY
MINOR TWEAKS FOR DEWPOINT AND SKY COVER, NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 16 HOURS WITH GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 15-17 KTS. FOG FORMATION
IS THEN LIKELY BTWN 10-13Z NEAR RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS--IMPACTING
BOTH KHSV/KMSL. HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
WITH LOWER DROPS IN VIS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
AFTER 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221710 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1210 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1027 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT, DRY, SUNNY DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SOLID DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH SOME PATCHY
STRATOCU PUSHING SW TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, THOUGH THEY HAVE
NOT MADE IT FAR BEYOND CROSSVILLE OR CHATTANOOGA. THIS IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SW FLANK OF THE
CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE STRATOCU MIGHT FILTER A
LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE HUNTSVILLE CWFA, BUT IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH
IMPACT, EVEN IN FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE RIGHT ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 60S. ASIDE FROM A FEW VERY
MINOR TWEAKS FOR DEWPOINT AND SKY COVER, NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 16 HOURS WITH GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 15-17 KTS. FOG FORMATION
IS THEN LIKELY BTWN 10-13Z NEAR RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS--IMPACTING
BOTH KHSV/KMSL. HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
WITH LOWER DROPS IN VIS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
AFTER 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221642
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1142 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRODUCING DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER ALABAMA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TODAYS
FORECAST.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME BRIEF FOG AT ANB THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE DAY. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5-10 KTS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 643 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

ITS ANOTHER DRY DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDE THROUGH BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

IN OTHER NEWS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DEVELOPED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLIER THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES EAST. WITH
THE LARGE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM HAS NO
CHANCE ON MAKING IT ANYWHERE NEAR CENTRAL ALABAMA.

BY SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND
CONTINUE TO KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WE COULD SEE A COLD FRONT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AT SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE
WOULD SEE ANY BENEFICIAL RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  39  70  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    68  41  70  43  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  45  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  71  43  74  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      69  44  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      70  46  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  74  44  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        73  41  74  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 221642
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1142 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRODUCING DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER ALABAMA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TODAYS
FORECAST.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME BRIEF FOG AT ANB THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE DAY. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5-10 KTS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 643 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

ITS ANOTHER DRY DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDE THROUGH BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

IN OTHER NEWS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DEVELOPED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLIER THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES EAST. WITH
THE LARGE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM HAS NO
CHANCE ON MAKING IT ANYWHERE NEAR CENTRAL ALABAMA.

BY SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND
CONTINUE TO KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WE COULD SEE A COLD FRONT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AT SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE
WOULD SEE ANY BENEFICIAL RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  39  70  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    68  41  70  43  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  45  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  71  43  74  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      69  44  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      70  46  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  74  44  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        73  41  74  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 221527 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1027 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT, DRY, SUNNY DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SOLID DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH SOME PATCHY
STRATOCU PUSHING SW TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, THOUGH THEY HAVE
NOT MADE IT FAR BEYOND CROSSVILLE OR CHATTANOOGA. THIS IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SW FLANK OF THE
CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE STRATOCU MIGHT FILTER A
LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE HUNTSVILLE CWFA, BUT IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH
IMPACT, EVEN IN FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE RIGHT ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 60S. ASIDE FROM A FEW VERY
MINOR TWEAKS FOR DEWPOINT AND SKY COVER, NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR/SKC CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH MSL/HSV TERMINALS
THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH NE FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ARND 8G15 KTS
BY 22/15Z. AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS TN THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
VEER SLIGHTLY AND MAY DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WIND SPEED AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
BEFORE SUNRISE...WILL NOT INCLUDE VSBY REDUCTIONS ATTM.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS MANAGED TO PUSH WELL INTO S AL/CNTRL MS
THIS EARLY WED MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS REMAINED PREDOM IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE THUS FAR AS
WELL...WHICH HAS LIMITED ANY FOG FORMATION IN MOST AREAS. A FEW OF
THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS MAY YET SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...THX IN PART
TO SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW H925...LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ONLY BE IN A FEW SPOTS THOUGH...AND ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITHIN AN HR OR TWO AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SEASONABLY COOL AND TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS TODAY...AS A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OUT OF THE CNTRL CONUS ALSO
LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE SFC HIGH EWD...HELPING TO SUPPLANT QUIET AND
SEASONABLY COOL/MILD TEMPS ACROSS THE SE REGION INTO FRI. ONLY
EXCEPTION THE LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO HINT AT IS AN EMBEDDED
UPPER SHTRWV/TROUGH AXIS DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES BEHIND
THE EXITING RIDGE PATTERN THU AND FRI. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE
A BIT OF QPF GENERATED ACROSS THE NRN/MID PLAINS WITH THIS ONCOMING
SHEAR AXIS...ONLY TO THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FURTHER SE AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR AOB H5. THIS MAY AT LEAST RESULT IN A FEW
CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE AREA THU INTO FRI...BEFORE A BROADER UPPER
RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF REGION.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE POINTING TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY REINFORCING
COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW STATES TRAVERSING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION AROUND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL DISPLACED TO THE NE OF THE AREA...WITH MORE OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE INSTEAD BUILDING SWD INTO THE MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS.
THIS LOOKS TO USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THE TEMP TREND MAY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM AS THE
SFC HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS E TOWARD THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN. THE
LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A MUCH
BROADER COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN HALVES OF THE
CONUS TUE INTO WED. THE MODELS DIFFER THOUGH ON THE AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE...AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE SE STATES...AND AS SUCH
HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. THIS
MAY CHANGE THOUGH WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...IF IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
BIT MORE MOISTURE RETURN MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HEADING INTO LATE TUE/WED.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221151
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
651 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS MANAGED TO PUSH WELL INTO S AL/CNTRL MS
THIS EARLY WED MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS REMAINED PREDOM IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE THUS FAR AS
WELL...WHICH HAS LIMITED ANY FOG FORMATION IN MOST AREAS. A FEW OF
THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS MAY YET SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...THX IN PART
TO SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW H925...LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ONLY BE IN A FEW SPOTS THOUGH...AND ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITHIN AN HR OR TWO AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SEASONABLY COOL AND TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS TODAY...AS A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OUT OF THE CNTRL CONUS ALSO
LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE SFC HIGH EWD...HELPING TO SUPPLANT QUIET AND
SEASONABLY COOL/MILD TEMPS ACROSS THE SE REGION INTO FRI. ONLY
EXCEPTION THE LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO HINT AT IS AN EMBEDDED
UPPER SHTRWV/TROUGH AXIS DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES BEHIND
THE EXITING RIDGE PATTERN THU AND FRI. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE
A BIT OF QPF GENERATED ACROSS THE NRN/MID PLAINS WITH THIS ONCOMING
SHEAR AXIS...ONLY TO THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FURTHER SE AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR AOB H5. THIS MAY AT LEAST RESULT IN A FEW
CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE AREA THU INTO FRI...BEFORE A BROADER UPPER
RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF REGION.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE POINTING TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY REINFORCING
COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW STATES TRAVERSING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION AROUND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL DISPLACED TO THE NE OF THE AREA...WITH MORE OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE INSTEAD BUILDING SWD INTO THE MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS.
THIS LOOKS TO USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THE TEMP TREND MAY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM AS THE
SFC HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS E TOWARD THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN. THE
LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A MUCH
BROADER COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN HALVES OF THE
CONUS TUE INTO WED. THE MODELS DIFFER THOUGH ON THE AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE...AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE SE STATES...AND AS SUCH
HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. THIS
MAY CHANGE THOUGH WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...IF IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
BIT MORE MOISTURE RETURN MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HEADING INTO LATE TUE/WED.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR/SKC CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH MSL/HSV TERMINALS
THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH NE FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ARND 8G15 KTS
BY 22/15Z. AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS TN THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
VEER SLIGHTLY AND MAY DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WIND SPEED AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
BEFORE SUNRISE...WILL NOT INCLUDE VSBY REDUCTIONS ATTM.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221143
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
643 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ITS ANOTHER DRY DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDE THROUGH BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

IN OTHER NEWS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DEVELOPED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLIER THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES EAST. WITH
THE LARGE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM HAS NO
CHANCE ON MAKING IT ANYWHERE NEAR CENTRAL ALABAMA.

BY SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND
CONTINUE TO KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WE COULD SEE A COLD FRONT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AT SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE
WOULD SEE ANY BENEFICIAL RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME BRIEF FOG AT ANB THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE DAY. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5-10 KTS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GOOD NEWS WILL BE THAT THE WINDS WILL DROP ON THURSDAY SO RED
FLAG CRITERIA SHOULD NOT BE MET. OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  39  70  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    68  41  70  43  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  45  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  71  43  74  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      69  44  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      70  46  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  74  44  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        73  41  74  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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