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000
FXUS64 KHUN 010154 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
754 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
TO RAISE MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AND DELAYING SCHC -RA/DZ UNTIL AFT 09Z.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE AT THE SFC AS OF 01Z WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE M40S-A50. THESE READINGS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST, AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES, MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. MID CLOUDS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WE ARE MONITORING THE PROGRESS
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS OF LOWER MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS IN
SRN/CENTRAL AL/GA STREAMING NWWD. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE SOON, ALTHOUGH
THE LOWER CLOUDS PRODUCING DZ/-RA ARE LOCATED OVER SRN GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP
UNTIL AFT 09Z. THE PRONOUNCED CAD THAT HAS PENETRATED SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN FL MAY DELAY/LIMIT THE ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWWD
UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 454 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU ~09-11Z WITH A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD. S-SELY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDS
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND -DZ AT KHSV EXPECTED BY 09Z. LOW CLOUDS AND
MVFR ARE EXPECTED AT KMSL BY 11Z FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION TO IFR BY
16Z. THESE CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF -RA DEVELOPING WHICH MAY
KEEP THE FLIGHT CATEGORY IFR OR MVFR.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
WARMER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS HELPED TO
MELT MORE OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST MID WEEK. ONLY
A FEW PATCHES OF SNOW REMAINED AS OF THIS WRITING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC WAS
BRINGING AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY CONTINUED
TO SHIFT TO THE NE...WITH THE CLOSEST PRECIP FROM IT MAINLY FROM TX
TO EASTERN MO.

A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS CONTINUED...WITH AN UPPER
LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A MOIST/STORMY FLOW UNDER
THIS LOW WAS SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. TO OUR SE...CONVECTION WAS IN PROGRESS OVER FLORIDA.
MOISTURE INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL CREEP TO
THE NW... BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT.

THE ABOVE NOTED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE SURGING TO THE NW TONIGHT
FROM THE SE...AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY LEVEL WIND PICKS UP. THIS
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. MORE SUPPORT FROM A PASSING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE VALLEY TO BEGIN A NEW
WORK WEEK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. DURING THIS
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUE. THIS
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS TO THE VALLEY. IN
FACT...HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S...THE FIRST TIME SINCE
VALENTINES DAY.

THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA..RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DECENT SHEAR...
WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO BE REALIZED...AS PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS RISE BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANOTHER COLD
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT NEARS FROM THE NW. TIMING BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
VARIES...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN THE FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER. LEANED
TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES IN WED/WED
NITE. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A PRECIP PHASE CHANGE-OVER...TO THE WINTRY VARIETY...
AGAIN! THE GFS WAS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC...WITH ITS SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE EC BEING
SLOWER TO BRING IN THE COLDER AIR WOULD BRING A SHORTER DURATION OF
FREEZING PRECIP...BUT DOES END THE PRECIP EPISODE AS SNOW LIKE THE
GFS DOES. TOO FAR OUT GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND HOW WARM THE
GROUND WILL BE BEFOREHAND...REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY). IN
EITHER CASE...A COLDER LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THU...WARMING INTO THE 40S FRI...AND 50S
BY NEXT SAT. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010154 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
754 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
TO RAISE MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AND DELAYING SCHC -RA/DZ UNTIL AFT 09Z.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE AT THE SFC AS OF 01Z WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE M40S-A50. THESE READINGS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST, AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES, MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. MID CLOUDS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WE ARE MONITORING THE PROGRESS
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS OF LOWER MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS IN
SRN/CENTRAL AL/GA STREAMING NWWD. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE SOON, ALTHOUGH
THE LOWER CLOUDS PRODUCING DZ/-RA ARE LOCATED OVER SRN GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP
UNTIL AFT 09Z. THE PRONOUNCED CAD THAT HAS PENETRATED SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN FL MAY DELAY/LIMIT THE ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWWD
UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 454 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU ~09-11Z WITH A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD. S-SELY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDS
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND -DZ AT KHSV EXPECTED BY 09Z. LOW CLOUDS AND
MVFR ARE EXPECTED AT KMSL BY 11Z FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION TO IFR BY
16Z. THESE CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF -RA DEVELOPING WHICH MAY
KEEP THE FLIGHT CATEGORY IFR OR MVFR.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
WARMER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS HELPED TO
MELT MORE OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST MID WEEK. ONLY
A FEW PATCHES OF SNOW REMAINED AS OF THIS WRITING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC WAS
BRINGING AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY CONTINUED
TO SHIFT TO THE NE...WITH THE CLOSEST PRECIP FROM IT MAINLY FROM TX
TO EASTERN MO.

A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS CONTINUED...WITH AN UPPER
LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A MOIST/STORMY FLOW UNDER
THIS LOW WAS SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. TO OUR SE...CONVECTION WAS IN PROGRESS OVER FLORIDA.
MOISTURE INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL CREEP TO
THE NW... BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT.

THE ABOVE NOTED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE SURGING TO THE NW TONIGHT
FROM THE SE...AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY LEVEL WIND PICKS UP. THIS
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. MORE SUPPORT FROM A PASSING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE VALLEY TO BEGIN A NEW
WORK WEEK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. DURING THIS
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUE. THIS
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS TO THE VALLEY. IN
FACT...HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S...THE FIRST TIME SINCE
VALENTINES DAY.

THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA..RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DECENT SHEAR...
WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO BE REALIZED...AS PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS RISE BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANOTHER COLD
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT NEARS FROM THE NW. TIMING BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
VARIES...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN THE FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER. LEANED
TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES IN WED/WED
NITE. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A PRECIP PHASE CHANGE-OVER...TO THE WINTRY VARIETY...
AGAIN! THE GFS WAS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC...WITH ITS SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE EC BEING
SLOWER TO BRING IN THE COLDER AIR WOULD BRING A SHORTER DURATION OF
FREEZING PRECIP...BUT DOES END THE PRECIP EPISODE AS SNOW LIKE THE
GFS DOES. TOO FAR OUT GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND HOW WARM THE
GROUND WILL BE BEFOREHAND...REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY). IN
EITHER CASE...A COLDER LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THU...WARMING INTO THE 40S FRI...AND 50S
BY NEXT SAT. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 010154 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
754 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
TO RAISE MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AND DELAYING SCHC -RA/DZ UNTIL AFT 09Z.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE AT THE SFC AS OF 01Z WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE M40S-A50. THESE READINGS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST, AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES, MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. MID CLOUDS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WE ARE MONITORING THE PROGRESS
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS OF LOWER MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS IN
SRN/CENTRAL AL/GA STREAMING NWWD. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE SOON, ALTHOUGH
THE LOWER CLOUDS PRODUCING DZ/-RA ARE LOCATED OVER SRN GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP
UNTIL AFT 09Z. THE PRONOUNCED CAD THAT HAS PENETRATED SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN FL MAY DELAY/LIMIT THE ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWWD
UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 454 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU ~09-11Z WITH A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD. S-SELY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDS
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND -DZ AT KHSV EXPECTED BY 09Z. LOW CLOUDS AND
MVFR ARE EXPECTED AT KMSL BY 11Z FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION TO IFR BY
16Z. THESE CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF -RA DEVELOPING WHICH MAY
KEEP THE FLIGHT CATEGORY IFR OR MVFR.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
WARMER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS HELPED TO
MELT MORE OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST MID WEEK. ONLY
A FEW PATCHES OF SNOW REMAINED AS OF THIS WRITING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC WAS
BRINGING AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY CONTINUED
TO SHIFT TO THE NE...WITH THE CLOSEST PRECIP FROM IT MAINLY FROM TX
TO EASTERN MO.

A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS CONTINUED...WITH AN UPPER
LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A MOIST/STORMY FLOW UNDER
THIS LOW WAS SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. TO OUR SE...CONVECTION WAS IN PROGRESS OVER FLORIDA.
MOISTURE INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL CREEP TO
THE NW... BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT.

THE ABOVE NOTED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE SURGING TO THE NW TONIGHT
FROM THE SE...AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY LEVEL WIND PICKS UP. THIS
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. MORE SUPPORT FROM A PASSING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE VALLEY TO BEGIN A NEW
WORK WEEK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. DURING THIS
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUE. THIS
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS TO THE VALLEY. IN
FACT...HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S...THE FIRST TIME SINCE
VALENTINES DAY.

THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA..RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DECENT SHEAR...
WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO BE REALIZED...AS PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS RISE BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANOTHER COLD
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT NEARS FROM THE NW. TIMING BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
VARIES...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN THE FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER. LEANED
TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES IN WED/WED
NITE. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A PRECIP PHASE CHANGE-OVER...TO THE WINTRY VARIETY...
AGAIN! THE GFS WAS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC...WITH ITS SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE EC BEING
SLOWER TO BRING IN THE COLDER AIR WOULD BRING A SHORTER DURATION OF
FREEZING PRECIP...BUT DOES END THE PRECIP EPISODE AS SNOW LIKE THE
GFS DOES. TOO FAR OUT GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND HOW WARM THE
GROUND WILL BE BEFOREHAND...REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY). IN
EITHER CASE...A COLDER LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THU...WARMING INTO THE 40S FRI...AND 50S
BY NEXT SAT. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010154 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
754 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
TO RAISE MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AND DELAYING SCHC -RA/DZ UNTIL AFT 09Z.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE AT THE SFC AS OF 01Z WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE M40S-A50. THESE READINGS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST, AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES, MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. MID CLOUDS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WE ARE MONITORING THE PROGRESS
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS OF LOWER MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS IN
SRN/CENTRAL AL/GA STREAMING NWWD. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE SOON, ALTHOUGH
THE LOWER CLOUDS PRODUCING DZ/-RA ARE LOCATED OVER SRN GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP
UNTIL AFT 09Z. THE PRONOUNCED CAD THAT HAS PENETRATED SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN FL MAY DELAY/LIMIT THE ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWWD
UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 454 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU ~09-11Z WITH A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD. S-SELY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDS
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND -DZ AT KHSV EXPECTED BY 09Z. LOW CLOUDS AND
MVFR ARE EXPECTED AT KMSL BY 11Z FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION TO IFR BY
16Z. THESE CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF -RA DEVELOPING WHICH MAY
KEEP THE FLIGHT CATEGORY IFR OR MVFR.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
WARMER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS HELPED TO
MELT MORE OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST MID WEEK. ONLY
A FEW PATCHES OF SNOW REMAINED AS OF THIS WRITING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC WAS
BRINGING AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY CONTINUED
TO SHIFT TO THE NE...WITH THE CLOSEST PRECIP FROM IT MAINLY FROM TX
TO EASTERN MO.

A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS CONTINUED...WITH AN UPPER
LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A MOIST/STORMY FLOW UNDER
THIS LOW WAS SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. TO OUR SE...CONVECTION WAS IN PROGRESS OVER FLORIDA.
MOISTURE INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL CREEP TO
THE NW... BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT.

THE ABOVE NOTED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE SURGING TO THE NW TONIGHT
FROM THE SE...AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY LEVEL WIND PICKS UP. THIS
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. MORE SUPPORT FROM A PASSING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE VALLEY TO BEGIN A NEW
WORK WEEK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. DURING THIS
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUE. THIS
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS TO THE VALLEY. IN
FACT...HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S...THE FIRST TIME SINCE
VALENTINES DAY.

THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA..RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DECENT SHEAR...
WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO BE REALIZED...AS PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS RISE BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANOTHER COLD
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT NEARS FROM THE NW. TIMING BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
VARIES...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN THE FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER. LEANED
TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES IN WED/WED
NITE. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A PRECIP PHASE CHANGE-OVER...TO THE WINTRY VARIETY...
AGAIN! THE GFS WAS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC...WITH ITS SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE EC BEING
SLOWER TO BRING IN THE COLDER AIR WOULD BRING A SHORTER DURATION OF
FREEZING PRECIP...BUT DOES END THE PRECIP EPISODE AS SNOW LIKE THE
GFS DOES. TOO FAR OUT GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND HOW WARM THE
GROUND WILL BE BEFOREHAND...REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY). IN
EITHER CASE...A COLDER LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THU...WARMING INTO THE 40S FRI...AND 50S
BY NEXT SAT. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 282359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. PLENTY
ON INSOLATION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN
REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE NOTED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW IS TRYING TO SET UP A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BUT HAS BEEN OUTDONE SO
FAR BY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INSOLATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LIFT IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY ABOVE 800 MB. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT FURTHER SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY.

NEXT WEEKS FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEATHER EXTREMES.
EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GO FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO...HOW DO WE SET THE STAGE FOR SUCH
A DRAMATIC SWING. ON MONDAY...A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND AN 850MB RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A LEE LOW DEVELOPS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TRANSITIONS TO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER SATURATED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH THE SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PRODUCING
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECT THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SOMEWHAT. THE 850MB JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

THE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PHASE
AN INCREDIBLE UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 180 KTS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT ALABAMA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREDIBLE JET. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. A WARM NOSE IS PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDINGS OF AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM NOSE BEGINS
TO COOL SOME EARLY THURSDAY AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM.
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS EVENT WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACTS THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH AND COULD CAUSE
MORE ISSUES WITH TREES AND POWER-LINES IF THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS THE
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
WITH THE EVENT STILL BEING OVER 4 DAYS AWAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-59 THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SAME THINKING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT BROUGHT CIGS DOWN A BIT
QUICKER IN THE SOUTH. 4-5K FT CLOUD DECK IS QUICKLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD AND HAS ALREADY REACHED EET. CIGS HAVE NOW FALLEN TO
MVFR AT TOI. STILL EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEN IFR AREAWIDE BY
09Z-10Z. SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY WITH THE LOWER
CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  53  44  54  47 /  20  30  60  60  50
ANNISTON    40  57  45  58  50 /  30  30  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  42  57  48  56  51 /  20  30  60  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  44  57  49  57  50 /  10  20  60  60  50
CALERA      44  59  49  58  53 /  20  20  40  60  50
AUBURN      41  56  46  64  54 /  40  30  30  40  40
MONTGOMERY  44  62  50  66  56 /  30  20  30  50  30
TROY        43  62  49  68  56 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 282359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. PLENTY
ON INSOLATION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN
REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE NOTED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW IS TRYING TO SET UP A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BUT HAS BEEN OUTDONE SO
FAR BY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INSOLATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LIFT IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY ABOVE 800 MB. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT FURTHER SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY.

NEXT WEEKS FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEATHER EXTREMES.
EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GO FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO...HOW DO WE SET THE STAGE FOR SUCH
A DRAMATIC SWING. ON MONDAY...A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND AN 850MB RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A LEE LOW DEVELOPS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TRANSITIONS TO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER SATURATED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH THE SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PRODUCING
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECT THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SOMEWHAT. THE 850MB JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

THE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PHASE
AN INCREDIBLE UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 180 KTS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT ALABAMA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREDIBLE JET. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. A WARM NOSE IS PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDINGS OF AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM NOSE BEGINS
TO COOL SOME EARLY THURSDAY AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM.
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS EVENT WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACTS THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH AND COULD CAUSE
MORE ISSUES WITH TREES AND POWER-LINES IF THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS THE
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
WITH THE EVENT STILL BEING OVER 4 DAYS AWAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-59 THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SAME THINKING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT BROUGHT CIGS DOWN A BIT
QUICKER IN THE SOUTH. 4-5K FT CLOUD DECK IS QUICKLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD AND HAS ALREADY REACHED EET. CIGS HAVE NOW FALLEN TO
MVFR AT TOI. STILL EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEN IFR AREAWIDE BY
09Z-10Z. SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY WITH THE LOWER
CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  53  44  54  47 /  20  30  60  60  50
ANNISTON    40  57  45  58  50 /  30  30  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  42  57  48  56  51 /  20  30  60  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  44  57  49  57  50 /  10  20  60  60  50
CALERA      44  59  49  58  53 /  20  20  40  60  50
AUBURN      41  56  46  64  54 /  40  30  30  40  40
MONTGOMERY  44  62  50  66  56 /  30  20  30  50  30
TROY        43  62  49  68  56 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 282359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. PLENTY
ON INSOLATION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN
REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE NOTED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW IS TRYING TO SET UP A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BUT HAS BEEN OUTDONE SO
FAR BY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INSOLATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LIFT IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY ABOVE 800 MB. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT FURTHER SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY.

NEXT WEEKS FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEATHER EXTREMES.
EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GO FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO...HOW DO WE SET THE STAGE FOR SUCH
A DRAMATIC SWING. ON MONDAY...A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND AN 850MB RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A LEE LOW DEVELOPS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TRANSITIONS TO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER SATURATED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH THE SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PRODUCING
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECT THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SOMEWHAT. THE 850MB JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

THE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PHASE
AN INCREDIBLE UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 180 KTS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT ALABAMA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREDIBLE JET. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. A WARM NOSE IS PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDINGS OF AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM NOSE BEGINS
TO COOL SOME EARLY THURSDAY AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM.
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS EVENT WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACTS THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH AND COULD CAUSE
MORE ISSUES WITH TREES AND POWER-LINES IF THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS THE
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
WITH THE EVENT STILL BEING OVER 4 DAYS AWAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-59 THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SAME THINKING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT BROUGHT CIGS DOWN A BIT
QUICKER IN THE SOUTH. 4-5K FT CLOUD DECK IS QUICKLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD AND HAS ALREADY REACHED EET. CIGS HAVE NOW FALLEN TO
MVFR AT TOI. STILL EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEN IFR AREAWIDE BY
09Z-10Z. SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY WITH THE LOWER
CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  53  44  54  47 /  20  30  60  60  50
ANNISTON    40  57  45  58  50 /  30  30  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  42  57  48  56  51 /  20  30  60  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  44  57  49  57  50 /  10  20  60  60  50
CALERA      44  59  49  58  53 /  20  20  40  60  50
AUBURN      41  56  46  64  54 /  40  30  30  40  40
MONTGOMERY  44  62  50  66  56 /  30  20  30  50  30
TROY        43  62  49  68  56 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 282359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. PLENTY
ON INSOLATION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN
REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE NOTED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW IS TRYING TO SET UP A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BUT HAS BEEN OUTDONE SO
FAR BY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INSOLATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LIFT IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY ABOVE 800 MB. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT FURTHER SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY.

NEXT WEEKS FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEATHER EXTREMES.
EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GO FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO...HOW DO WE SET THE STAGE FOR SUCH
A DRAMATIC SWING. ON MONDAY...A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND AN 850MB RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A LEE LOW DEVELOPS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TRANSITIONS TO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER SATURATED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH THE SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PRODUCING
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECT THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SOMEWHAT. THE 850MB JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

THE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PHASE
AN INCREDIBLE UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 180 KTS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT ALABAMA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREDIBLE JET. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. A WARM NOSE IS PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDINGS OF AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM NOSE BEGINS
TO COOL SOME EARLY THURSDAY AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM.
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS EVENT WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACTS THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH AND COULD CAUSE
MORE ISSUES WITH TREES AND POWER-LINES IF THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS THE
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
WITH THE EVENT STILL BEING OVER 4 DAYS AWAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-59 THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SAME THINKING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT BROUGHT CIGS DOWN A BIT
QUICKER IN THE SOUTH. 4-5K FT CLOUD DECK IS QUICKLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD AND HAS ALREADY REACHED EET. CIGS HAVE NOW FALLEN TO
MVFR AT TOI. STILL EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEN IFR AREAWIDE BY
09Z-10Z. SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY WITH THE LOWER
CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  53  44  54  47 /  20  30  60  60  50
ANNISTON    40  57  45  58  50 /  30  30  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  42  57  48  56  51 /  20  30  60  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  44  57  49  57  50 /  10  20  60  60  50
CALERA      44  59  49  58  53 /  20  20  40  60  50
AUBURN      41  56  46  64  54 /  40  30  30  40  40
MONTGOMERY  44  62  50  66  56 /  30  20  30  50  30
TROY        43  62  49  68  56 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 282254 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
454 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
WARMER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS HELPED TO
MELT MORE OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST MID WEEK. ONLY
A FEW PATCHES OF SNOW REMAINED AS OF THIS WRITING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC WAS
BRINGING AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY CONTINUED
TO SHIFT TO THE NE...WITH THE CLOSEST PRECIP FROM IT MAINLY FROM TX
TO EASTERN MO.

A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS CONTINUED...WITH AN UPPER
LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A MOIST/STORMY FLOW UNDER
THIS LOW WAS SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. TO OUR SE...CONVECTION WAS IN PROGRESS OVER FLORIDA.
MOISTURE INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL CREEP TO
THE NW... BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT.

THE ABOVE NOTED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE SURGING TO THE NW TONIGHT
FROM THE SE...AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY LEVEL WIND PICKS UP. THIS
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. MORE SUPPORT FROM A PASSING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE VALLEY TO BEGIN A NEW
WORK WEEK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. DURING THIS
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUE. THIS
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS TO THE VALLEY. IN
FACT...HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S...THE FIRST TIME SINCE
VALENTINES DAY.

THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA..RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DECENT SHEAR...
WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO BE REALIZED...AS PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS RISE BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANOTHER COLD
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT NEARS FROM THE NW. TIMING BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
VARIES...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN THE FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER. LEANED
TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES IN WED/WED
NITE. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A PRECIP PHASE CHANGE-OVER...TO THE WINTRY VARIETY...
AGAIN! THE GFS WAS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC...WITH ITS SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE EC BEING
SLOWER TO BRING IN THE COLDER AIR WOULD BRING A SHORTER DURATION OF
FREEZING PRECIP...BUT DOES END THE PRECIP EPISODE AS SNOW LIKE THE
GFS DOES. TOO FAR OUT GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND HOW WARM THE
GROUND WILL BE BEFOREHAND...REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY). IN
EITHER CASE...A COLDER LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THU...WARMING INTO THE 40S FRI...AND 50S
BY NEXT SAT. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU ~09-11Z WITH A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD. S-SELY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDS
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND -DZ AT KHSV EXPECTED BY 09Z. LOW CLOUDS AND
MVFR ARE EXPECTED AT KMSL BY 11Z FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION TO IFR BY
16Z. THESE CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF -RA DEVELOPING WHICH MAY
KEEP THE FLIGHT CATEGORY IFR OR MVFR.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 282254 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
454 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
WARMER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS HELPED TO
MELT MORE OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST MID WEEK. ONLY
A FEW PATCHES OF SNOW REMAINED AS OF THIS WRITING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC WAS
BRINGING AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY CONTINUED
TO SHIFT TO THE NE...WITH THE CLOSEST PRECIP FROM IT MAINLY FROM TX
TO EASTERN MO.

A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS CONTINUED...WITH AN UPPER
LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A MOIST/STORMY FLOW UNDER
THIS LOW WAS SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. TO OUR SE...CONVECTION WAS IN PROGRESS OVER FLORIDA.
MOISTURE INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL CREEP TO
THE NW... BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT.

THE ABOVE NOTED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE SURGING TO THE NW TONIGHT
FROM THE SE...AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY LEVEL WIND PICKS UP. THIS
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. MORE SUPPORT FROM A PASSING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE VALLEY TO BEGIN A NEW
WORK WEEK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. DURING THIS
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUE. THIS
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS TO THE VALLEY. IN
FACT...HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S...THE FIRST TIME SINCE
VALENTINES DAY.

THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA..RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DECENT SHEAR...
WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO BE REALIZED...AS PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS RISE BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANOTHER COLD
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT NEARS FROM THE NW. TIMING BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
VARIES...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN THE FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER. LEANED
TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES IN WED/WED
NITE. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A PRECIP PHASE CHANGE-OVER...TO THE WINTRY VARIETY...
AGAIN! THE GFS WAS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC...WITH ITS SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE EC BEING
SLOWER TO BRING IN THE COLDER AIR WOULD BRING A SHORTER DURATION OF
FREEZING PRECIP...BUT DOES END THE PRECIP EPISODE AS SNOW LIKE THE
GFS DOES. TOO FAR OUT GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND HOW WARM THE
GROUND WILL BE BEFOREHAND...REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY). IN
EITHER CASE...A COLDER LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THU...WARMING INTO THE 40S FRI...AND 50S
BY NEXT SAT. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU ~09-11Z WITH A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD. S-SELY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDS
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND -DZ AT KHSV EXPECTED BY 09Z. LOW CLOUDS AND
MVFR ARE EXPECTED AT KMSL BY 11Z FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION TO IFR BY
16Z. THESE CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF -RA DEVELOPING WHICH MAY
KEEP THE FLIGHT CATEGORY IFR OR MVFR.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 282254 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
454 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
WARMER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS HELPED TO
MELT MORE OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST MID WEEK. ONLY
A FEW PATCHES OF SNOW REMAINED AS OF THIS WRITING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC WAS
BRINGING AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY CONTINUED
TO SHIFT TO THE NE...WITH THE CLOSEST PRECIP FROM IT MAINLY FROM TX
TO EASTERN MO.

A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS CONTINUED...WITH AN UPPER
LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A MOIST/STORMY FLOW UNDER
THIS LOW WAS SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. TO OUR SE...CONVECTION WAS IN PROGRESS OVER FLORIDA.
MOISTURE INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL CREEP TO
THE NW... BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT.

THE ABOVE NOTED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE SURGING TO THE NW TONIGHT
FROM THE SE...AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY LEVEL WIND PICKS UP. THIS
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. MORE SUPPORT FROM A PASSING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE VALLEY TO BEGIN A NEW
WORK WEEK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. DURING THIS
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUE. THIS
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS TO THE VALLEY. IN
FACT...HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S...THE FIRST TIME SINCE
VALENTINES DAY.

THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA..RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DECENT SHEAR...
WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO BE REALIZED...AS PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS RISE BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANOTHER COLD
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT NEARS FROM THE NW. TIMING BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
VARIES...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN THE FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER. LEANED
TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES IN WED/WED
NITE. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A PRECIP PHASE CHANGE-OVER...TO THE WINTRY VARIETY...
AGAIN! THE GFS WAS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC...WITH ITS SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE EC BEING
SLOWER TO BRING IN THE COLDER AIR WOULD BRING A SHORTER DURATION OF
FREEZING PRECIP...BUT DOES END THE PRECIP EPISODE AS SNOW LIKE THE
GFS DOES. TOO FAR OUT GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND HOW WARM THE
GROUND WILL BE BEFOREHAND...REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY). IN
EITHER CASE...A COLDER LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THU...WARMING INTO THE 40S FRI...AND 50S
BY NEXT SAT. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU ~09-11Z WITH A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD. S-SELY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDS
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND -DZ AT KHSV EXPECTED BY 09Z. LOW CLOUDS AND
MVFR ARE EXPECTED AT KMSL BY 11Z FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION TO IFR BY
16Z. THESE CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF -RA DEVELOPING WHICH MAY
KEEP THE FLIGHT CATEGORY IFR OR MVFR.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 282254 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
454 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
WARMER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS HELPED TO
MELT MORE OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST MID WEEK. ONLY
A FEW PATCHES OF SNOW REMAINED AS OF THIS WRITING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC WAS
BRINGING AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY CONTINUED
TO SHIFT TO THE NE...WITH THE CLOSEST PRECIP FROM IT MAINLY FROM TX
TO EASTERN MO.

A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS CONTINUED...WITH AN UPPER
LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A MOIST/STORMY FLOW UNDER
THIS LOW WAS SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. TO OUR SE...CONVECTION WAS IN PROGRESS OVER FLORIDA.
MOISTURE INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL CREEP TO
THE NW... BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT.

THE ABOVE NOTED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE SURGING TO THE NW TONIGHT
FROM THE SE...AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY LEVEL WIND PICKS UP. THIS
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. MORE SUPPORT FROM A PASSING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE VALLEY TO BEGIN A NEW
WORK WEEK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. DURING THIS
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUE. THIS
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS TO THE VALLEY. IN
FACT...HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S...THE FIRST TIME SINCE
VALENTINES DAY.

THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA..RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DECENT SHEAR...
WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO BE REALIZED...AS PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS RISE BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANOTHER COLD
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT NEARS FROM THE NW. TIMING BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
VARIES...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN THE FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER. LEANED
TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES IN WED/WED
NITE. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A PRECIP PHASE CHANGE-OVER...TO THE WINTRY VARIETY...
AGAIN! THE GFS WAS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC...WITH ITS SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE EC BEING
SLOWER TO BRING IN THE COLDER AIR WOULD BRING A SHORTER DURATION OF
FREEZING PRECIP...BUT DOES END THE PRECIP EPISODE AS SNOW LIKE THE
GFS DOES. TOO FAR OUT GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND HOW WARM THE
GROUND WILL BE BEFOREHAND...REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY). IN
EITHER CASE...A COLDER LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THU...WARMING INTO THE 40S FRI...AND 50S
BY NEXT SAT. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU ~09-11Z WITH A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD. S-SELY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDS
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND -DZ AT KHSV EXPECTED BY 09Z. LOW CLOUDS AND
MVFR ARE EXPECTED AT KMSL BY 11Z FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION TO IFR BY
16Z. THESE CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF -RA DEVELOPING WHICH MAY
KEEP THE FLIGHT CATEGORY IFR OR MVFR.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 282159
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ORIENTED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...EASTERN
SEABOARD AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHILE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT... WHILE WEAK LIFT COULD
SUPPORT PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
SHOULD BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. OTHERWISE... INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT KEEPING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY IN THE EAST
DURING THE MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA. /21

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM SWEEPING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PUSHING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
TENN RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY...BUT
GETTING A SHOVE NORTHWARD AS UPPER ENERGY STARTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...PUSHING A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD. WITH
THIS STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE FA...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RESULTS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS. INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING RUMBLERS TO MIX IN. AM
EXPECTING TEMPS TO RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. ALSO...AM EXPECTING A RETURN OF FOG TO THE AREA.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL
PRUDENT TO HOLD OFF MENTION ATTM...WITH GUIDANCE INCONSISTENT IN THE
HANDLING OF THE BOUNDARY THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SWEEPING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
CONNECTING WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
MOVING THE WHOLE SHEBANG EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHIFTS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD
AND RESTORING SURFACE FLOW TO THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE PLAINS...IT PUSHES A SURFACE FRONT
AHEAD...WITH GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A
STRONGER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FA THAN THE ECMWF. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
RUMBLERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT IN EITHER CASE. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE FA THURSDAY...THE ECMWF...WITH WEAKER DRIVING UPPER
DYNAMICS IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE MARINE
PORTION OF THE FA. THE GFS PUSHES IT WELL SOUTH. THIS IS WHERE THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING THE FRONT
HANDING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MARINE FA...A BIT
WARMER(ALBEIT BELOW SEASONAL) FORECAST RESULTS AS COMPARED TO THE
GFS. WITH EITHER POSSIBLE...HAVE TRIED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE FOR THE
LAST PART OF THE FORECAST. THE RESULT IS DRY AND BELOW SEASONAL ON
THE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATE.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND WILL LET
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE WHERE
SPEEDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EASTERLY
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ADVANCING
FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. /21


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  67  53  69  57 /  10  20  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   46  65  54  68  57 /  20  20  20  20  30
DESTIN      47  64  54  65  58 /  20  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   42  67  50  68  56 /  20  20  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  43  66  52  64  56 /  05  20  30  50  20
CAMDEN      42  65  51  66  57 /  10  20  40  50  20
CRESTVIEW   44  67  51  71  56 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$

21/16





000
FXUS64 KHUN 282145
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
345 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS HELPED TO
MELT MORE OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST MID WEEK. ONLY
A FEW PATCHES OF SNOW REMAINED AS OF THIS WRITING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC WAS
BRINGING AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY CONTINUED
TO SHIFT TO THE NE...WITH THE CLOSEST PRECIP FROM IT MAINLY FROM TX
TO EASTERN MO.

A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS CONTINUED...WITH AN UPPER
LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A MOIST/STORMY FLOW UNDER
THIS LOW WAS SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. TO OUR SE...CONVECTION WAS IN PROGRESS OVER FLORIDA.
MOISTURE INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL CREEP TO
THE NW... BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT.

THE ABOVE NOTED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE SURGING TO THE NW TONIGHT
FROM THE SE...AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY LEVEL WIND PICKS UP. THIS
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. MORE SUPPORT FROM A PASSING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE VALLEY TO BEGIN A NEW
WORK WEEK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. DURING THIS
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUE. THIS
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS TO THE VALLEY. IN
FACT...HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S...THE FIRST TIME SINCE
VALENTINES DAY.

THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA..RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DECENT SHEAR...
WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO BE REALIZED...AS PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS RISE BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANOTHER COLD
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT NEARS FROM THE NW. TIMING BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
VARIES...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN THE FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER. LEANED
TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES IN WED/WED
NITE. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A PRECIP PHASE CHANGE-OVER...TO THE WINTRY VARIETY...
AGAIN! THE GFS WAS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC...WITH ITS SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE EC BEING
SLOWER TO BRING IN THE COLDER AIR WOULD BRING A SHORTER DURATION OF
FREEZING PRECIP...BUT DOES END THE PRECIP EPISODE AS SNOW LIKE THE
GFS DOES. TOO FAR OUT GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND HOW WARM THE
GROUND WILL BE BEFOREHAND...REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY). IN
EITHER CASE...A COLDER LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THU...WARMING INTO THE 40S FRI...AND 50S
BY NEXT SAT. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z BEFORE A LOW MVFR CLOUD
DECK FROM THE SOUTHEAST (S GA/S AL) APPROACHES. AFTER 05Z, THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKELY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 09Z AND -DZ. NO IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN AFTER 09Z
THROUGH 18Z. IN ADDITION, SE WINDS OF 7-10 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    38  52  42  48 /  10  30  70  50
SHOALS        39  52  41  48 /  10  30  70  50
VINEMONT      39  52  44  49 /  10  30  70  50
FAYETTEVILLE  36  50  38  46 /  10  30  70  40
ALBERTVILLE   39  52  45  49 /  20  30  70  50
FORT PAYNE    38  50  42  51 /  20  30  70  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 282145
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
345 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS HELPED TO
MELT MORE OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST MID WEEK. ONLY
A FEW PATCHES OF SNOW REMAINED AS OF THIS WRITING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC WAS
BRINGING AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY CONTINUED
TO SHIFT TO THE NE...WITH THE CLOSEST PRECIP FROM IT MAINLY FROM TX
TO EASTERN MO.

A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS CONTINUED...WITH AN UPPER
LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A MOIST/STORMY FLOW UNDER
THIS LOW WAS SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. TO OUR SE...CONVECTION WAS IN PROGRESS OVER FLORIDA.
MOISTURE INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL CREEP TO
THE NW... BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT.

THE ABOVE NOTED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE SURGING TO THE NW TONIGHT
FROM THE SE...AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY LEVEL WIND PICKS UP. THIS
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. MORE SUPPORT FROM A PASSING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE VALLEY TO BEGIN A NEW
WORK WEEK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. DURING THIS
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUE. THIS
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS TO THE VALLEY. IN
FACT...HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S...THE FIRST TIME SINCE
VALENTINES DAY.

THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA..RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DECENT SHEAR...
WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO BE REALIZED...AS PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS RISE BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANOTHER COLD
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT NEARS FROM THE NW. TIMING BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
VARIES...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN THE FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER. LEANED
TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES IN WED/WED
NITE. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A PRECIP PHASE CHANGE-OVER...TO THE WINTRY VARIETY...
AGAIN! THE GFS WAS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC...WITH ITS SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE EC BEING
SLOWER TO BRING IN THE COLDER AIR WOULD BRING A SHORTER DURATION OF
FREEZING PRECIP...BUT DOES END THE PRECIP EPISODE AS SNOW LIKE THE
GFS DOES. TOO FAR OUT GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND HOW WARM THE
GROUND WILL BE BEFOREHAND...REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY). IN
EITHER CASE...A COLDER LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THU...WARMING INTO THE 40S FRI...AND 50S
BY NEXT SAT. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z BEFORE A LOW MVFR CLOUD
DECK FROM THE SOUTHEAST (S GA/S AL) APPROACHES. AFTER 05Z, THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKELY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 09Z AND -DZ. NO IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN AFTER 09Z
THROUGH 18Z. IN ADDITION, SE WINDS OF 7-10 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    38  52  42  48 /  10  30  70  50
SHOALS        39  52  41  48 /  10  30  70  50
VINEMONT      39  52  44  49 /  10  30  70  50
FAYETTEVILLE  36  50  38  46 /  10  30  70  40
ALBERTVILLE   39  52  45  49 /  20  30  70  50
FORT PAYNE    38  50  42  51 /  20  30  70  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 282145
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
345 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS HELPED TO
MELT MORE OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST MID WEEK. ONLY
A FEW PATCHES OF SNOW REMAINED AS OF THIS WRITING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC WAS
BRINGING AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY CONTINUED
TO SHIFT TO THE NE...WITH THE CLOSEST PRECIP FROM IT MAINLY FROM TX
TO EASTERN MO.

A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS CONTINUED...WITH AN UPPER
LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A MOIST/STORMY FLOW UNDER
THIS LOW WAS SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. TO OUR SE...CONVECTION WAS IN PROGRESS OVER FLORIDA.
MOISTURE INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL CREEP TO
THE NW... BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT.

THE ABOVE NOTED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE SURGING TO THE NW TONIGHT
FROM THE SE...AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY LEVEL WIND PICKS UP. THIS
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. MORE SUPPORT FROM A PASSING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE VALLEY TO BEGIN A NEW
WORK WEEK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. DURING THIS
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUE. THIS
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS TO THE VALLEY. IN
FACT...HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S...THE FIRST TIME SINCE
VALENTINES DAY.

THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA..RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DECENT SHEAR...
WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO BE REALIZED...AS PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS RISE BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANOTHER COLD
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT NEARS FROM THE NW. TIMING BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
VARIES...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN THE FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER. LEANED
TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES IN WED/WED
NITE. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A PRECIP PHASE CHANGE-OVER...TO THE WINTRY VARIETY...
AGAIN! THE GFS WAS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC...WITH ITS SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE EC BEING
SLOWER TO BRING IN THE COLDER AIR WOULD BRING A SHORTER DURATION OF
FREEZING PRECIP...BUT DOES END THE PRECIP EPISODE AS SNOW LIKE THE
GFS DOES. TOO FAR OUT GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND HOW WARM THE
GROUND WILL BE BEFOREHAND...REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY). IN
EITHER CASE...A COLDER LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THU...WARMING INTO THE 40S FRI...AND 50S
BY NEXT SAT. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z BEFORE A LOW MVFR CLOUD
DECK FROM THE SOUTHEAST (S GA/S AL) APPROACHES. AFTER 05Z, THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKELY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 09Z AND -DZ. NO IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN AFTER 09Z
THROUGH 18Z. IN ADDITION, SE WINDS OF 7-10 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    38  52  42  48 /  10  30  70  50
SHOALS        39  52  41  48 /  10  30  70  50
VINEMONT      39  52  44  49 /  10  30  70  50
FAYETTEVILLE  36  50  38  46 /  10  30  70  40
ALBERTVILLE   39  52  45  49 /  20  30  70  50
FORT PAYNE    38  50  42  51 /  20  30  70  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 282145
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
345 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS HELPED TO
MELT MORE OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST MID WEEK. ONLY
A FEW PATCHES OF SNOW REMAINED AS OF THIS WRITING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC WAS
BRINGING AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY CONTINUED
TO SHIFT TO THE NE...WITH THE CLOSEST PRECIP FROM IT MAINLY FROM TX
TO EASTERN MO.

A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS CONTINUED...WITH AN UPPER
LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A MOIST/STORMY FLOW UNDER
THIS LOW WAS SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. TO OUR SE...CONVECTION WAS IN PROGRESS OVER FLORIDA.
MOISTURE INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL CREEP TO
THE NW... BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT.

THE ABOVE NOTED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE SURGING TO THE NW TONIGHT
FROM THE SE...AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY LEVEL WIND PICKS UP. THIS
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. MORE SUPPORT FROM A PASSING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE VALLEY TO BEGIN A NEW
WORK WEEK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. DURING THIS
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUE. THIS
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS TO THE VALLEY. IN
FACT...HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S...THE FIRST TIME SINCE
VALENTINES DAY.

THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA..RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR TUE/WED TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DECENT SHEAR...
WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO BE REALIZED...AS PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS RISE BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANOTHER COLD
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT NEARS FROM THE NW. TIMING BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
VARIES...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN THE FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER. LEANED
TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES IN WED/WED
NITE. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A PRECIP PHASE CHANGE-OVER...TO THE WINTRY VARIETY...
AGAIN! THE GFS WAS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC...WITH ITS SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE EC BEING
SLOWER TO BRING IN THE COLDER AIR WOULD BRING A SHORTER DURATION OF
FREEZING PRECIP...BUT DOES END THE PRECIP EPISODE AS SNOW LIKE THE
GFS DOES. TOO FAR OUT GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND HOW WARM THE
GROUND WILL BE BEFOREHAND...REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY). IN
EITHER CASE...A COLDER LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THU...WARMING INTO THE 40S FRI...AND 50S
BY NEXT SAT. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z BEFORE A LOW MVFR CLOUD
DECK FROM THE SOUTHEAST (S GA/S AL) APPROACHES. AFTER 05Z, THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKELY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 09Z AND -DZ. NO IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN AFTER 09Z
THROUGH 18Z. IN ADDITION, SE WINDS OF 7-10 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    38  52  42  48 /  10  30  70  50
SHOALS        39  52  41  48 /  10  30  70  50
VINEMONT      39  52  44  49 /  10  30  70  50
FAYETTEVILLE  36  50  38  46 /  10  30  70  40
ALBERTVILLE   39  52  45  49 /  20  30  70  50
FORT PAYNE    38  50  42  51 /  20  30  70  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 282133
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. PLENTY
ON INSOLATION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN
REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE NOTED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW IS TRYING TO SET UP A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BUT HAS BEEN OUTDONE SO
FAR BY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INSOLATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LIFT IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY ABOVE 800 MB. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT FURTHER SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY.

NEXT WEEKS FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEATHER EXTREMES.
EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GO FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO...HOW DO WE SET THE STAGE FOR SUCH
A DRAMATIC SWING. ON MONDAY...A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND AN 850MB RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A LEE LOW DEVELOPS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TRANSITIONS TO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER SATURATED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH THE SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PRODUCING
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECT THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SOMEWHAT. THE 850MB JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

THE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PHASE
AN INCREDIBLE UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 180 KTS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT ALABAMA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREDIBLE JET. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. A WARM NOSE IS PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDINGS OF AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM NOSE BEGINS
TO COOL SOME EARLY THURSDAY AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM.
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS EVENT WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACTS THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH AND COULD CAUSE
MORE ISSUES WITH TREES AND POWER-LINES IF THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS THE
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
WITH THE EVENT STILL BEING OVER 4 DAYS AWAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-59 THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TEND AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
INCREASES RATHER RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A FEW LINES N THE
TERMINALS INDICATING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR. THEN DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 05-10Z AREA
WIDE. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AT 6-12KTS. SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CLOUDS.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  53  44  54  47 /  20  30  60  60  50
ANNISTON    40  57  45  58  50 /  30  30  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  42  57  48  56  51 /  20  30  60  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  44  57  49  57  50 /  10  20  60  60  50
CALERA      44  59  49  58  53 /  20  20  40  60  50
AUBURN      41  56  46  64  54 /  40  30  30  40  40
MONTGOMERY  44  62  50  66  56 /  30  20  30  50  30
TROY        43  62  49  68  56 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 282133
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. PLENTY
ON INSOLATION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN
REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE NOTED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW IS TRYING TO SET UP A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BUT HAS BEEN OUTDONE SO
FAR BY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INSOLATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LIFT IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY ABOVE 800 MB. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT FURTHER SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY.

NEXT WEEKS FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEATHER EXTREMES.
EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GO FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO...HOW DO WE SET THE STAGE FOR SUCH
A DRAMATIC SWING. ON MONDAY...A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND AN 850MB RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A LEE LOW DEVELOPS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TRANSITIONS TO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER SATURATED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH THE SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PRODUCING
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECT THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SOMEWHAT. THE 850MB JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

THE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PHASE
AN INCREDIBLE UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 180 KTS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT ALABAMA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREDIBLE JET. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. A WARM NOSE IS PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDINGS OF AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM NOSE BEGINS
TO COOL SOME EARLY THURSDAY AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM.
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS EVENT WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACTS THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH AND COULD CAUSE
MORE ISSUES WITH TREES AND POWER-LINES IF THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS THE
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
WITH THE EVENT STILL BEING OVER 4 DAYS AWAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-59 THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TEND AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
INCREASES RATHER RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A FEW LINES N THE
TERMINALS INDICATING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR. THEN DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 05-10Z AREA
WIDE. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AT 6-12KTS. SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CLOUDS.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  53  44  54  47 /  20  30  60  60  50
ANNISTON    40  57  45  58  50 /  30  30  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  42  57  48  56  51 /  20  30  60  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  44  57  49  57  50 /  10  20  60  60  50
CALERA      44  59  49  58  53 /  20  20  40  60  50
AUBURN      41  56  46  64  54 /  40  30  30  40  40
MONTGOMERY  44  62  50  66  56 /  30  20  30  50  30
TROY        43  62  49  68  56 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 282027 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
227 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...WE WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID 60S WITHIN AREAS OF SUNSHINE...AND AROUND
60 OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER. /21

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL
LATE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   62  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      59  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  65  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      64  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   61  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 282027 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
227 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...WE WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID 60S WITHIN AREAS OF SUNSHINE...AND AROUND
60 OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER. /21

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL
LATE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   62  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      59  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  65  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      64  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   61  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 282027 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
227 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...WE WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID 60S WITHIN AREAS OF SUNSHINE...AND AROUND
60 OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER. /21

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL
LATE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   62  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      59  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  65  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      64  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   61  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 282027 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
227 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...WE WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID 60S WITHIN AREAS OF SUNSHINE...AND AROUND
60 OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER. /21

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL
LATE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   62  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      59  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  65  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      64  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   61  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 282027 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
227 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...WE WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID 60S WITHIN AREAS OF SUNSHINE...AND AROUND
60 OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER. /21

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL
LATE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   62  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      59  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  65  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      64  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   61  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 282027 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
227 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...WE WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID 60S WITHIN AREAS OF SUNSHINE...AND AROUND
60 OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER. /21

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL
LATE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   62  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      59  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  65  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      64  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   61  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 281753
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL
LATE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   59  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      56  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   62  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  62  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      61  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   59  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 281753
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL
LATE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   59  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      56  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   62  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  62  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      61  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   59  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 281753
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL
LATE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   59  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      56  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   62  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  62  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      61  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   59  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 281753
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL
LATE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   59  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      56  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   62  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  62  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      61  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   59  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 281743
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ERODING A BIT QUICK LATE THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED. ADDITIONALLY...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
COOL AIR HAS NOT ARRIVED YET. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TEND AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
INCREASES RATHER RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A FEW LINES N THE
TERMINALS INDICATING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR. THEN DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 05-10Z AREA
WIDE. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AT 6-12KTS. SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CLOUDS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    56  40  57  44  59 /  10  30  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  58  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  60  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      59  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      56  41  55  46  64 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  60  44  61  49  67 /  10  30  30  50  50
TROY        62  43  61  49  70 /  10  40  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 281743
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ERODING A BIT QUICK LATE THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED. ADDITIONALLY...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
COOL AIR HAS NOT ARRIVED YET. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TEND AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
INCREASES RATHER RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A FEW LINES N THE
TERMINALS INDICATING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR. THEN DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 05-10Z AREA
WIDE. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AT 6-12KTS. SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CLOUDS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    56  40  57  44  59 /  10  30  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  58  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  60  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      59  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      56  41  55  46  64 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  60  44  61  49  67 /  10  30  30  50  50
TROY        62  43  61  49  70 /  10  40  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 281743
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ERODING A BIT QUICK LATE THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED. ADDITIONALLY...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
COOL AIR HAS NOT ARRIVED YET. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TEND AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
INCREASES RATHER RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A FEW LINES N THE
TERMINALS INDICATING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR. THEN DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 05-10Z AREA
WIDE. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AT 6-12KTS. SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CLOUDS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    56  40  57  44  59 /  10  30  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  58  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  60  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      59  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      56  41  55  46  64 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  60  44  61  49  67 /  10  30  30  50  50
TROY        62  43  61  49  70 /  10  40  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 281743
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ERODING A BIT QUICK LATE THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED. ADDITIONALLY...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
COOL AIR HAS NOT ARRIVED YET. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TEND AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
INCREASES RATHER RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A FEW LINES N THE
TERMINALS INDICATING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR. THEN DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 05-10Z AREA
WIDE. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AT 6-12KTS. SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CLOUDS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    56  40  57  44  59 /  10  30  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  58  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  60  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      59  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      56  41  55  46  64 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  60  44  61  49  67 /  10  30  30  50  50
TROY        62  43  61  49  70 /  10  40  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 281737 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 938 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH SNOW
COVER STILL PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ENE SFC FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE TODAY AS THE SFC ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS IT NEARS THE MARYLAND/DELAWARE COASTLINE,
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SEND COOLER AIR SW TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS/GA AND N AL
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AS A
COMBINATION OF CLOUD BREAKS AND SE FLOW SHOULD MODIFY THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TODAY WITH LOWER END MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS GIVEN THE CLOUD BREAKS AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN THE LOW CLOUDS, BUT STILL THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. UAH-MIPS CEILOMETER ALSO INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKS WITH
THE CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-11 KFT.

OTHERWISE, MADE TREND ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS LOOKING OK FOR NOW.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z BEFORE A LOW MVFR CLOUD
DECK FROM THE SOUTHEAST (S GA/S AL) APPROACHES. AFTER 05Z, THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKELY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 09Z AND -DZ. NO IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN AFTER 09Z
THROUGH 18Z. IN ADDITION, SE WINDS OF 7-10 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281737 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 938 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH SNOW
COVER STILL PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ENE SFC FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE TODAY AS THE SFC ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS IT NEARS THE MARYLAND/DELAWARE COASTLINE,
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SEND COOLER AIR SW TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS/GA AND N AL
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AS A
COMBINATION OF CLOUD BREAKS AND SE FLOW SHOULD MODIFY THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TODAY WITH LOWER END MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS GIVEN THE CLOUD BREAKS AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN THE LOW CLOUDS, BUT STILL THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. UAH-MIPS CEILOMETER ALSO INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKS WITH
THE CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-11 KFT.

OTHERWISE, MADE TREND ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS LOOKING OK FOR NOW.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z BEFORE A LOW MVFR CLOUD
DECK FROM THE SOUTHEAST (S GA/S AL) APPROACHES. AFTER 05Z, THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKELY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 09Z AND -DZ. NO IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN AFTER 09Z
THROUGH 18Z. IN ADDITION, SE WINDS OF 7-10 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281737 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 938 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH SNOW
COVER STILL PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ENE SFC FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE TODAY AS THE SFC ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS IT NEARS THE MARYLAND/DELAWARE COASTLINE,
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SEND COOLER AIR SW TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS/GA AND N AL
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AS A
COMBINATION OF CLOUD BREAKS AND SE FLOW SHOULD MODIFY THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TODAY WITH LOWER END MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS GIVEN THE CLOUD BREAKS AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN THE LOW CLOUDS, BUT STILL THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. UAH-MIPS CEILOMETER ALSO INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKS WITH
THE CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-11 KFT.

OTHERWISE, MADE TREND ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS LOOKING OK FOR NOW.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z BEFORE A LOW MVFR CLOUD
DECK FROM THE SOUTHEAST (S GA/S AL) APPROACHES. AFTER 05Z, THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKELY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 09Z AND -DZ. NO IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN AFTER 09Z
THROUGH 18Z. IN ADDITION, SE WINDS OF 7-10 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281737 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 938 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH SNOW
COVER STILL PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ENE SFC FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE TODAY AS THE SFC ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS IT NEARS THE MARYLAND/DELAWARE COASTLINE,
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SEND COOLER AIR SW TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS/GA AND N AL
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AS A
COMBINATION OF CLOUD BREAKS AND SE FLOW SHOULD MODIFY THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TODAY WITH LOWER END MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS GIVEN THE CLOUD BREAKS AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN THE LOW CLOUDS, BUT STILL THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. UAH-MIPS CEILOMETER ALSO INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKS WITH
THE CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-11 KFT.

OTHERWISE, MADE TREND ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS LOOKING OK FOR NOW.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z BEFORE A LOW MVFR CLOUD
DECK FROM THE SOUTHEAST (S GA/S AL) APPROACHES. AFTER 05Z, THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKELY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 09Z AND -DZ. NO IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN AFTER 09Z
THROUGH 18Z. IN ADDITION, SE WINDS OF 7-10 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281737 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 938 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH SNOW
COVER STILL PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ENE SFC FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE TODAY AS THE SFC ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS IT NEARS THE MARYLAND/DELAWARE COASTLINE,
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SEND COOLER AIR SW TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS/GA AND N AL
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AS A
COMBINATION OF CLOUD BREAKS AND SE FLOW SHOULD MODIFY THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TODAY WITH LOWER END MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS GIVEN THE CLOUD BREAKS AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN THE LOW CLOUDS, BUT STILL THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. UAH-MIPS CEILOMETER ALSO INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKS WITH
THE CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-11 KFT.

OTHERWISE, MADE TREND ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS LOOKING OK FOR NOW.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z BEFORE A LOW MVFR CLOUD
DECK FROM THE SOUTHEAST (S GA/S AL) APPROACHES. AFTER 05Z, THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKELY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 09Z AND -DZ. NO IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN AFTER 09Z
THROUGH 18Z. IN ADDITION, SE WINDS OF 7-10 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281737 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 938 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH SNOW
COVER STILL PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ENE SFC FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE TODAY AS THE SFC ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS IT NEARS THE MARYLAND/DELAWARE COASTLINE,
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SEND COOLER AIR SW TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS/GA AND N AL
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AS A
COMBINATION OF CLOUD BREAKS AND SE FLOW SHOULD MODIFY THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TODAY WITH LOWER END MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS GIVEN THE CLOUD BREAKS AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN THE LOW CLOUDS, BUT STILL THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. UAH-MIPS CEILOMETER ALSO INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKS WITH
THE CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-11 KFT.

OTHERWISE, MADE TREND ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS LOOKING OK FOR NOW.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z BEFORE A LOW MVFR CLOUD
DECK FROM THE SOUTHEAST (S GA/S AL) APPROACHES. AFTER 05Z, THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKELY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 09Z AND -DZ. NO IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN AFTER 09Z
THROUGH 18Z. IN ADDITION, SE WINDS OF 7-10 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 281710 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG THROUGH 12Z SUN. WELL TO THE EAST A BROAD SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH PERSISTENT TEMPS/PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LATER TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPS WARM WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RELAX SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A RATHER
PLEASANT AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MOSTLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY ARE MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. BETTER LOW TO MID CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. WITH THE BETTER CLOUDS
TO THE EAST HAVE ADJUSTED LATEST FORECAST TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA...THUS LEADING ME TO LEAN A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE MAINLY WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED. TODAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TO THE WEST. NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DO TO THE COOL SEA SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH A
BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE
WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.  A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS ON SUNDAY THEN A SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY THEN DISSIPATES OR
RETURNS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED.  THE WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LEADS TO WEAK OR NEGLIGIBLE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.  CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR INTERIOR AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING
PORTION.  HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...THEN MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
60S THEN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES
OVER THE WESTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
STATES TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT MEANWHILE BRINGING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR OVERRUNNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN POPS TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.  THE BEST SHEAR WHICH OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INSTABILITY WHICH OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HOWEVER...0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES POTENTIALLY NEAR
150 M2/S2 WARRANT INTRODUCING THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG
STORMS...AND HAVE OPTED TO WORD THIS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY.  LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AND IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.20Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR
CIGS THROUGH 29.00Z THEN MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 29.12Z. EXPECT A MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT. BETTER LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS SPREADING INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND NEAR THE AL COAST LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINAL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVER THE INLAND BAYS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON HEATING. WELL
OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS ALSO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SFC RIDGE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BETTER ONSHORE FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   59  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      56  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   62  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  62  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      61  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   59  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 281710 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG THROUGH 12Z SUN. WELL TO THE EAST A BROAD SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH PERSISTENT TEMPS/PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LATER TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPS WARM WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RELAX SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A RATHER
PLEASANT AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MOSTLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY ARE MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. BETTER LOW TO MID CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. WITH THE BETTER CLOUDS
TO THE EAST HAVE ADJUSTED LATEST FORECAST TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA...THUS LEADING ME TO LEAN A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE MAINLY WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED. TODAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TO THE WEST. NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DO TO THE COOL SEA SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH A
BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE
WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.  A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS ON SUNDAY THEN A SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY THEN DISSIPATES OR
RETURNS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED.  THE WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LEADS TO WEAK OR NEGLIGIBLE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.  CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR INTERIOR AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING
PORTION.  HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...THEN MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
60S THEN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES
OVER THE WESTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
STATES TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT MEANWHILE BRINGING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR OVERRUNNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN POPS TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.  THE BEST SHEAR WHICH OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INSTABILITY WHICH OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HOWEVER...0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES POTENTIALLY NEAR
150 M2/S2 WARRANT INTRODUCING THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG
STORMS...AND HAVE OPTED TO WORD THIS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY.  LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AND IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.20Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR
CIGS THROUGH 29.00Z THEN MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 29.12Z. EXPECT A MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT. BETTER LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS SPREADING INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND NEAR THE AL COAST LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINAL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVER THE INLAND BAYS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON HEATING. WELL
OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS ALSO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SFC RIDGE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BETTER ONSHORE FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   59  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      56  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   62  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  62  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      61  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   59  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 281710 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG THROUGH 12Z SUN. WELL TO THE EAST A BROAD SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH PERSISTENT TEMPS/PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LATER TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPS WARM WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RELAX SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A RATHER
PLEASANT AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MOSTLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY ARE MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. BETTER LOW TO MID CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. WITH THE BETTER CLOUDS
TO THE EAST HAVE ADJUSTED LATEST FORECAST TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA...THUS LEADING ME TO LEAN A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE MAINLY WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED. TODAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TO THE WEST. NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DO TO THE COOL SEA SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH A
BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE
WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.  A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS ON SUNDAY THEN A SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY THEN DISSIPATES OR
RETURNS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED.  THE WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LEADS TO WEAK OR NEGLIGIBLE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.  CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR INTERIOR AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING
PORTION.  HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...THEN MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
60S THEN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES
OVER THE WESTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
STATES TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT MEANWHILE BRINGING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR OVERRUNNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN POPS TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.  THE BEST SHEAR WHICH OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INSTABILITY WHICH OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HOWEVER...0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES POTENTIALLY NEAR
150 M2/S2 WARRANT INTRODUCING THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG
STORMS...AND HAVE OPTED TO WORD THIS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY.  LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AND IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.20Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR
CIGS THROUGH 29.00Z THEN MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 29.12Z. EXPECT A MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT. BETTER LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS SPREADING INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND NEAR THE AL COAST LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINAL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVER THE INLAND BAYS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON HEATING. WELL
OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS ALSO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SFC RIDGE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BETTER ONSHORE FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   59  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      56  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   62  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  62  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      61  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   59  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 281710 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG THROUGH 12Z SUN. WELL TO THE EAST A BROAD SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH PERSISTENT TEMPS/PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LATER TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPS WARM WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RELAX SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A RATHER
PLEASANT AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MOSTLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY ARE MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. BETTER LOW TO MID CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. WITH THE BETTER CLOUDS
TO THE EAST HAVE ADJUSTED LATEST FORECAST TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA...THUS LEADING ME TO LEAN A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE MAINLY WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED. TODAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TO THE WEST. NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DO TO THE COOL SEA SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH A
BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE
WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.  A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS ON SUNDAY THEN A SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY THEN DISSIPATES OR
RETURNS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED.  THE WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LEADS TO WEAK OR NEGLIGIBLE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.  CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR INTERIOR AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING
PORTION.  HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...THEN MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
60S THEN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES
OVER THE WESTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
STATES TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT MEANWHILE BRINGING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR OVERRUNNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN POPS TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.  THE BEST SHEAR WHICH OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INSTABILITY WHICH OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HOWEVER...0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES POTENTIALLY NEAR
150 M2/S2 WARRANT INTRODUCING THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG
STORMS...AND HAVE OPTED TO WORD THIS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY.  LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AND IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.20Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR
CIGS THROUGH 29.00Z THEN MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 29.12Z. EXPECT A MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT. BETTER LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS SPREADING INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND NEAR THE AL COAST LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINAL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVER THE INLAND BAYS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON HEATING. WELL
OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS ALSO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SFC RIDGE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BETTER ONSHORE FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   59  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      56  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   62  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  62  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      61  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   59  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 281710 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG THROUGH 12Z SUN. WELL TO THE EAST A BROAD SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH PERSISTENT TEMPS/PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LATER TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPS WARM WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RELAX SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A RATHER
PLEASANT AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MOSTLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY ARE MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. BETTER LOW TO MID CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. WITH THE BETTER CLOUDS
TO THE EAST HAVE ADJUSTED LATEST FORECAST TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA...THUS LEADING ME TO LEAN A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE MAINLY WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED. TODAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TO THE WEST. NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DO TO THE COOL SEA SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH A
BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE
WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.  A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS ON SUNDAY THEN A SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY THEN DISSIPATES OR
RETURNS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED.  THE WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LEADS TO WEAK OR NEGLIGIBLE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.  CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR INTERIOR AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING
PORTION.  HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...THEN MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
60S THEN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES
OVER THE WESTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
STATES TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT MEANWHILE BRINGING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR OVERRUNNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN POPS TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.  THE BEST SHEAR WHICH OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INSTABILITY WHICH OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HOWEVER...0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES POTENTIALLY NEAR
150 M2/S2 WARRANT INTRODUCING THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG
STORMS...AND HAVE OPTED TO WORD THIS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY.  LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AND IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.20Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR
CIGS THROUGH 29.00Z THEN MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 29.12Z. EXPECT A MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT. BETTER LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS SPREADING INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND NEAR THE AL COAST LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINAL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVER THE INLAND BAYS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON HEATING. WELL
OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS ALSO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SFC RIDGE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BETTER ONSHORE FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   59  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      56  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   62  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  62  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      61  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   59  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 281710 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1110 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
MEANWHILE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 11 AM CST.

THE FORECAST MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TODAY...BUT WE DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AS THE LATEST
NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS APPEAR ON
TARGET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. /21

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOWER MOBILE BAY...AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG THROUGH 12Z SUN. WELL TO THE EAST A BROAD SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH PERSISTENT TEMPS/PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LATER TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPS WARM WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RELAX SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A RATHER
PLEASANT AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MOSTLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY ARE MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. BETTER LOW TO MID CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. WITH THE BETTER CLOUDS
TO THE EAST HAVE ADJUSTED LATEST FORECAST TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA...THUS LEADING ME TO LEAN A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE MAINLY WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED. TODAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TO THE WEST. NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DO TO THE COOL SEA SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH A
BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE
WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.  A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS ON SUNDAY THEN A SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY THEN DISSIPATES OR
RETURNS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED.  THE WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LEADS TO WEAK OR NEGLIGIBLE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.  CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR INTERIOR AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING
PORTION.  HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...THEN MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
60S THEN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES
OVER THE WESTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
STATES TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT MEANWHILE BRINGING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR OVERRUNNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN POPS TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.  THE BEST SHEAR WHICH OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INSTABILITY WHICH OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HOWEVER...0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES POTENTIALLY NEAR
150 M2/S2 WARRANT INTRODUCING THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG
STORMS...AND HAVE OPTED TO WORD THIS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY.  LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AND IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.20Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR
CIGS THROUGH 29.00Z THEN MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 29.12Z. EXPECT A MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT. BETTER LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS SPREADING INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND NEAR THE AL COAST LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINAL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVER THE INLAND BAYS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON HEATING. WELL
OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS ALSO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SFC RIDGE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BETTER ONSHORE FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   59  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      56  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   62  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  62  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      61  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   59  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 281538 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
938 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR SKY COVER UPDATES AND TREND IN AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH SNOW
COVER STILL PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ENE SFC FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE TODAY AS THE SFC ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS IT NEARS THE MARYLAND/DELAWARE COASTLINE,
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SEND COOLER AIR SW TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS/GA AND N AL
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AS A
COMBINATION OF CLOUD BREAKS AND SE FLOW SHOULD MODIFY THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TODAY WITH LOWER END MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS GIVEN THE CLOUD BREAKS AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN THE LOW CLOUDS, BUT STILL THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. UAH-MIPS CEILOMETER ALSO INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKS WITH
THE CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-11 KFT.

OTHERWISE, MADE TREND ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS LOOKING OK FOR NOW.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 559 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
03Z THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE 9000 FT. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LOW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
2000 FT CEILINGS WILL OVERTAKE THE TERMINALS BY 03Z...AND THEN LOWER
TO 900 FT BY 09Z ON SUNDAY.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281538 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
938 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR SKY COVER UPDATES AND TREND IN AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH SNOW
COVER STILL PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ENE SFC FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE TODAY AS THE SFC ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS IT NEARS THE MARYLAND/DELAWARE COASTLINE,
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SEND COOLER AIR SW TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS/GA AND N AL
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AS A
COMBINATION OF CLOUD BREAKS AND SE FLOW SHOULD MODIFY THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TODAY WITH LOWER END MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS GIVEN THE CLOUD BREAKS AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN THE LOW CLOUDS, BUT STILL THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. UAH-MIPS CEILOMETER ALSO INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKS WITH
THE CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-11 KFT.

OTHERWISE, MADE TREND ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS LOOKING OK FOR NOW.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 559 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
03Z THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE 9000 FT. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LOW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
2000 FT CEILINGS WILL OVERTAKE THE TERMINALS BY 03Z...AND THEN LOWER
TO 900 FT BY 09Z ON SUNDAY.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281242
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10 TO 15K FEET EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 7 TO
10 KNOTS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
AFTER 06Z AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED THE LOW CIGS INTO THE
PLANNING PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 281242
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10 TO 15K FEET EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 7 TO
10 KNOTS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
AFTER 06Z AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED THE LOW CIGS INTO THE
PLANNING PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 281242
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10 TO 15K FEET EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 7 TO
10 KNOTS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
AFTER 06Z AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED THE LOW CIGS INTO THE
PLANNING PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 281242
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10 TO 15K FEET EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 7 TO
10 KNOTS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
AFTER 06Z AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED THE LOW CIGS INTO THE
PLANNING PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 281159
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
559 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 554 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
A SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST
INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED IN THE LEE OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS THIS OCCURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE SLOW THIS MORNING GIVEN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK IN
PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS THIS CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT
TO RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A SOLID DECK OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS BY
LATE THIS EVENING -- WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 3-7 KFT WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POSTFRONTAL LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED AS 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND ATOP THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL
ASCENT. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...AND WITH THICK CLOUDS
AND MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
MID 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO EJECT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT --
INDUCING LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. A WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION -- MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY -- AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALL SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER. THE REGION WILL BE WELL INTO THE CYCLONES WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE LOW
SIDE WITH ONLY WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A RAPID
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SB INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEAK...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60-65 RANGE BENEATH A
50-60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET -- RAISING CONCERN FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRTON WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD EXITING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH AXIS OF THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL TO THE
WEST...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FOR AT
LEAST 12-24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE -- SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.
UNFORTUNATELY... THIS MAY SPELL DISASTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS VERTICAL PROFILES BECOME HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING -- POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING BRIEFLY TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW AROUND
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS EVENT CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY A
MUCH GREATER IMPACT THAN THE RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL THAT OCCURRED
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO -- GIVEN THE SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS -- AND WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
03Z THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE 9000 FT. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LOW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
2000 FT CEILINGS WILL OVERTAKE THE TERMINALS BY 03Z...AND THEN LOWER
TO 900 FT BY 09Z ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281159
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
559 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 554 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
A SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST
INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED IN THE LEE OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS THIS OCCURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE SLOW THIS MORNING GIVEN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK IN
PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS THIS CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT
TO RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A SOLID DECK OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS BY
LATE THIS EVENING -- WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 3-7 KFT WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POSTFRONTAL LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED AS 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND ATOP THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL
ASCENT. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...AND WITH THICK CLOUDS
AND MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
MID 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO EJECT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT --
INDUCING LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. A WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION -- MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY -- AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALL SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER. THE REGION WILL BE WELL INTO THE CYCLONES WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE LOW
SIDE WITH ONLY WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A RAPID
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SB INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEAK...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60-65 RANGE BENEATH A
50-60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET -- RAISING CONCERN FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRTON WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD EXITING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH AXIS OF THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL TO THE
WEST...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FOR AT
LEAST 12-24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE -- SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.
UNFORTUNATELY... THIS MAY SPELL DISASTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS VERTICAL PROFILES BECOME HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING -- POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING BRIEFLY TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW AROUND
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS EVENT CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY A
MUCH GREATER IMPACT THAN THE RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL THAT OCCURRED
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO -- GIVEN THE SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS -- AND WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
03Z THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE 9000 FT. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LOW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
2000 FT CEILINGS WILL OVERTAKE THE TERMINALS BY 03Z...AND THEN LOWER
TO 900 FT BY 09Z ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281159
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
559 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 554 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
A SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST
INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED IN THE LEE OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS THIS OCCURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE SLOW THIS MORNING GIVEN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK IN
PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS THIS CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT
TO RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A SOLID DECK OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS BY
LATE THIS EVENING -- WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 3-7 KFT WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POSTFRONTAL LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED AS 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND ATOP THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL
ASCENT. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...AND WITH THICK CLOUDS
AND MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
MID 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO EJECT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT --
INDUCING LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. A WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION -- MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY -- AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALL SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER. THE REGION WILL BE WELL INTO THE CYCLONES WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE LOW
SIDE WITH ONLY WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A RAPID
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SB INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEAK...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60-65 RANGE BENEATH A
50-60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET -- RAISING CONCERN FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRTON WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD EXITING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH AXIS OF THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL TO THE
WEST...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FOR AT
LEAST 12-24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE -- SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.
UNFORTUNATELY... THIS MAY SPELL DISASTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS VERTICAL PROFILES BECOME HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING -- POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING BRIEFLY TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW AROUND
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS EVENT CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY A
MUCH GREATER IMPACT THAN THE RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL THAT OCCURRED
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO -- GIVEN THE SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS -- AND WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
03Z THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE 9000 FT. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LOW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
2000 FT CEILINGS WILL OVERTAKE THE TERMINALS BY 03Z...AND THEN LOWER
TO 900 FT BY 09Z ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281159
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
559 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 554 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
A SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST
INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED IN THE LEE OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS THIS OCCURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE SLOW THIS MORNING GIVEN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK IN
PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS THIS CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT
TO RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A SOLID DECK OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS BY
LATE THIS EVENING -- WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 3-7 KFT WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POSTFRONTAL LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED AS 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND ATOP THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL
ASCENT. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...AND WITH THICK CLOUDS
AND MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
MID 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO EJECT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT --
INDUCING LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. A WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION -- MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY -- AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALL SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER. THE REGION WILL BE WELL INTO THE CYCLONES WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE LOW
SIDE WITH ONLY WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A RAPID
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SB INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEAK...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60-65 RANGE BENEATH A
50-60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET -- RAISING CONCERN FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRTON WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD EXITING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH AXIS OF THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL TO THE
WEST...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FOR AT
LEAST 12-24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE -- SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.
UNFORTUNATELY... THIS MAY SPELL DISASTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS VERTICAL PROFILES BECOME HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING -- POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING BRIEFLY TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW AROUND
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS EVENT CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY A
MUCH GREATER IMPACT THAN THE RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL THAT OCCURRED
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO -- GIVEN THE SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS -- AND WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
03Z THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE 9000 FT. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LOW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
2000 FT CEILINGS WILL OVERTAKE THE TERMINALS BY 03Z...AND THEN LOWER
TO 900 FT BY 09Z ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281154
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
554 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST
INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED IN THE LEE OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS THIS OCCURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE SLOW THIS MORNING GIVEN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK IN
PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS THIS CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT
TO RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A SOLID DECK OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS BY
LATE THIS EVENING -- WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 3-7 KFT WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POSTFRONTAL LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED AS 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND ATOP THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL
ASCENT. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...AND WITH THICK CLOUDS
AND MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
MID 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO EJECT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT --
INDUCING LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. A WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION -- MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY -- AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALL SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER. THE REGION WILL BE WELL INTO THE CYCLONES WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE LOW
SIDE WITH ONLY WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A RAPID
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SB INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEAK...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60-65 RANGE BENEATH A
50-60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET -- RAISING CONCERN FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRTON WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD EXITING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH AXIS OF THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL TO THE
WEST...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FOR AT
LEAST 12-24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE -- SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.
UNFORTUNATELY... THIS MAY SPELL DISASTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS VERTICAL PROFILES BECOME HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING -- POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING BRIEFLY TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW AROUND
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS EVENT CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY A
MUCH GREATER IMPACT THAN THE RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL THAT OCCURRED
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO -- GIVEN THE SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS -- AND WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM CURRENT VALUES OF 11KFT TO AROUND
06KFT BY 12Z. WINDS BECOME MORE E/SE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS DOWN TO 2-3KFT. LIGHT RAIN IS THEN
EXPECTED TO START AFTER 06Z TOMORROW.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    52  38  53  41 /   0  10  40  90
SHOALS        52  40  54  40 /   0  10  50  90
VINEMONT      52  39  53  43 /   0  10  40  90
FAYETTEVILLE  48  36  51  38 /   0  10  30  90
ALBERTVILLE   50  40  51  43 /   0  20  30  90
FORT PAYNE    50  38  51  42 /   0  20  30  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281154
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
554 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST
INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED IN THE LEE OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS THIS OCCURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE SLOW THIS MORNING GIVEN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK IN
PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS THIS CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT
TO RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A SOLID DECK OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS BY
LATE THIS EVENING -- WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 3-7 KFT WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POSTFRONTAL LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED AS 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND ATOP THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL
ASCENT. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...AND WITH THICK CLOUDS
AND MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
MID 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO EJECT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT --
INDUCING LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. A WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION -- MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY -- AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALL SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER. THE REGION WILL BE WELL INTO THE CYCLONES WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE LOW
SIDE WITH ONLY WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A RAPID
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SB INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEAK...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60-65 RANGE BENEATH A
50-60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET -- RAISING CONCERN FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRTON WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD EXITING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH AXIS OF THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL TO THE
WEST...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FOR AT
LEAST 12-24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE -- SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.
UNFORTUNATELY... THIS MAY SPELL DISASTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS VERTICAL PROFILES BECOME HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING -- POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING BRIEFLY TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW AROUND
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS EVENT CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY A
MUCH GREATER IMPACT THAN THE RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL THAT OCCURRED
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO -- GIVEN THE SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS -- AND WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM CURRENT VALUES OF 11KFT TO AROUND
06KFT BY 12Z. WINDS BECOME MORE E/SE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS DOWN TO 2-3KFT. LIGHT RAIN IS THEN
EXPECTED TO START AFTER 06Z TOMORROW.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    52  38  53  41 /   0  10  40  90
SHOALS        52  40  54  40 /   0  10  50  90
VINEMONT      52  39  53  43 /   0  10  40  90
FAYETTEVILLE  48  36  51  38 /   0  10  30  90
ALBERTVILLE   50  40  51  43 /   0  20  30  90
FORT PAYNE    50  38  51  42 /   0  20  30  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281154
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
554 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST
INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED IN THE LEE OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS THIS OCCURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE SLOW THIS MORNING GIVEN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK IN
PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS THIS CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT
TO RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A SOLID DECK OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS BY
LATE THIS EVENING -- WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 3-7 KFT WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POSTFRONTAL LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED AS 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND ATOP THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL
ASCENT. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...AND WITH THICK CLOUDS
AND MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
MID 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO EJECT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT --
INDUCING LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. A WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION -- MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY -- AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALL SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER. THE REGION WILL BE WELL INTO THE CYCLONES WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE LOW
SIDE WITH ONLY WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A RAPID
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SB INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEAK...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60-65 RANGE BENEATH A
50-60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET -- RAISING CONCERN FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRTON WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD EXITING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH AXIS OF THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL TO THE
WEST...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FOR AT
LEAST 12-24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE -- SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.
UNFORTUNATELY... THIS MAY SPELL DISASTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS VERTICAL PROFILES BECOME HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING -- POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING BRIEFLY TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW AROUND
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS EVENT CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY A
MUCH GREATER IMPACT THAN THE RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL THAT OCCURRED
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO -- GIVEN THE SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS -- AND WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM CURRENT VALUES OF 11KFT TO AROUND
06KFT BY 12Z. WINDS BECOME MORE E/SE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS DOWN TO 2-3KFT. LIGHT RAIN IS THEN
EXPECTED TO START AFTER 06Z TOMORROW.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    52  38  53  41 /   0  10  40  90
SHOALS        52  40  54  40 /   0  10  50  90
VINEMONT      52  39  53  43 /   0  10  40  90
FAYETTEVILLE  48  36  51  38 /   0  10  30  90
ALBERTVILLE   50  40  51  43 /   0  20  30  90
FORT PAYNE    50  38  51  42 /   0  20  30  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281154
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
554 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST
INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED IN THE LEE OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS THIS OCCURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE SLOW THIS MORNING GIVEN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK IN
PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS THIS CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT
TO RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A SOLID DECK OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS BY
LATE THIS EVENING -- WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 3-7 KFT WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POSTFRONTAL LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED AS 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND ATOP THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL
ASCENT. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...AND WITH THICK CLOUDS
AND MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
MID 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO EJECT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT --
INDUCING LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. A WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION -- MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY -- AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALL SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER. THE REGION WILL BE WELL INTO THE CYCLONES WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE LOW
SIDE WITH ONLY WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A RAPID
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SB INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEAK...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60-65 RANGE BENEATH A
50-60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET -- RAISING CONCERN FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRTON WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD EXITING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH AXIS OF THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL TO THE
WEST...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FOR AT
LEAST 12-24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE -- SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.
UNFORTUNATELY... THIS MAY SPELL DISASTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS VERTICAL PROFILES BECOME HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING -- POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING BRIEFLY TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW AROUND
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS EVENT CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY A
MUCH GREATER IMPACT THAN THE RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL THAT OCCURRED
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO -- GIVEN THE SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS -- AND WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM CURRENT VALUES OF 11KFT TO AROUND
06KFT BY 12Z. WINDS BECOME MORE E/SE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS DOWN TO 2-3KFT. LIGHT RAIN IS THEN
EXPECTED TO START AFTER 06Z TOMORROW.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    52  38  53  41 /   0  10  40  90
SHOALS        52  40  54  40 /   0  10  50  90
VINEMONT      52  39  53  43 /   0  10  40  90
FAYETTEVILLE  48  36  51  38 /   0  10  30  90
ALBERTVILLE   50  40  51  43 /   0  20  30  90
FORT PAYNE    50  38  51  42 /   0  20  30  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281154
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
554 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST
INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED IN THE LEE OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS THIS OCCURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE SLOW THIS MORNING GIVEN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK IN
PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS THIS CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT
TO RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A SOLID DECK OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS BY
LATE THIS EVENING -- WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 3-7 KFT WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POSTFRONTAL LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED AS 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND ATOP THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL
ASCENT. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...AND WITH THICK CLOUDS
AND MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
MID 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO EJECT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT --
INDUCING LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. A WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION -- MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY -- AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALL SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER. THE REGION WILL BE WELL INTO THE CYCLONES WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE LOW
SIDE WITH ONLY WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A RAPID
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SB INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEAK...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60-65 RANGE BENEATH A
50-60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET -- RAISING CONCERN FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRTON WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD EXITING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH AXIS OF THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL TO THE
WEST...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FOR AT
LEAST 12-24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE -- SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.
UNFORTUNATELY... THIS MAY SPELL DISASTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS VERTICAL PROFILES BECOME HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING -- POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING BRIEFLY TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW AROUND
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS EVENT CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY A
MUCH GREATER IMPACT THAN THE RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL THAT OCCURRED
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO -- GIVEN THE SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS -- AND WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM CURRENT VALUES OF 11KFT TO AROUND
06KFT BY 12Z. WINDS BECOME MORE E/SE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS DOWN TO 2-3KFT. LIGHT RAIN IS THEN
EXPECTED TO START AFTER 06Z TOMORROW.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    52  38  53  41 /   0  10  40  90
SHOALS        52  40  54  40 /   0  10  50  90
VINEMONT      52  39  53  43 /   0  10  40  90
FAYETTEVILLE  48  36  51  38 /   0  10  30  90
ALBERTVILLE   50  40  51  43 /   0  20  30  90
FORT PAYNE    50  38  51  42 /   0  20  30  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281116
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 281116
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 281116
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 281003
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG THROUGH 12Z SUN. WELL TO THE EAST A BROAD SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH PERSISTENT TEMPS/PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LATER TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPS WARM WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RELAX SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A RATHER
PLEASANT AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MOSTLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY ARE MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. BETTER LOW TO MID CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. WITH THE BETTER CLOUDS
TO THE EAST HAVE ADJUSTED LATEST FORECAST TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA...THUS LEADING ME TO LEAN A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE MAINLY WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED. TODAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TO THE WEST. NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DO TO THE COOL SEA SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH A
BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE
WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.  A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS ON SUNDAY THEN A SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY THEN DISSIPATES OR
RETURNS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED.  THE WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LEADS TO WEAK OR NEGLIGIBLE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.  CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR INTERIOR AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING
PORTION.  HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...THEN MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
60S THEN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. /29

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES
OVER THE WESTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
STATES TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT MEANWHILE BRINGING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR OVERRUNNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN POPS TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.  THE BEST SHEAR WHICH OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INSTABILITY WHICH OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HOWEVER...0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES POTENTIALLY NEAR
150 M2/S2 WARRANT INTRODUCING THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG
STORMS...AND HAVE OPTED TO WORD THIS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY.  LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AND IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.20Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR
CIGS THROUGH 29.00Z THEN MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 29.12Z. EXPECT A MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT. BETTER LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS SPREADING INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND NEAR THE AL COAST LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINAL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVER THE INLAND BAYS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON HEATING. WELL
OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS ALSO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SFC RIDGE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BETTER ONSHORE FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   59  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      56  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   62  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  62  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      61  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   59  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 281003
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG THROUGH 12Z SUN. WELL TO THE EAST A BROAD SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH PERSISTENT TEMPS/PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LATER TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPS WARM WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RELAX SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A RATHER
PLEASANT AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MOSTLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY ARE MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. BETTER LOW TO MID CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. WITH THE BETTER CLOUDS
TO THE EAST HAVE ADJUSTED LATEST FORECAST TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA...THUS LEADING ME TO LEAN A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE MAINLY WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED. TODAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TO THE WEST. NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DO TO THE COOL SEA SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH A
BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE
WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.  A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS ON SUNDAY THEN A SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY THEN DISSIPATES OR
RETURNS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED.  THE WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LEADS TO WEAK OR NEGLIGIBLE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.  CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR INTERIOR AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING
PORTION.  HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...THEN MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
60S THEN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. /29

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES
OVER THE WESTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
STATES TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT MEANWHILE BRINGING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR OVERRUNNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN POPS TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.  THE BEST SHEAR WHICH OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INSTABILITY WHICH OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HOWEVER...0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES POTENTIALLY NEAR
150 M2/S2 WARRANT INTRODUCING THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG
STORMS...AND HAVE OPTED TO WORD THIS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY.  LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AND IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.20Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR
CIGS THROUGH 29.00Z THEN MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 29.12Z. EXPECT A MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT. BETTER LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS SPREADING INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND NEAR THE AL COAST LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINAL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVER THE INLAND BAYS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON HEATING. WELL
OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS ALSO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SFC RIDGE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BETTER ONSHORE FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   59  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      56  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   62  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  62  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      61  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   59  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 281003
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG THROUGH 12Z SUN. WELL TO THE EAST A BROAD SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH PERSISTENT TEMPS/PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LATER TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPS WARM WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RELAX SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A RATHER
PLEASANT AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MOSTLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY ARE MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. BETTER LOW TO MID CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. WITH THE BETTER CLOUDS
TO THE EAST HAVE ADJUSTED LATEST FORECAST TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA...THUS LEADING ME TO LEAN A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE MAINLY WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED. TODAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TO THE WEST. NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DO TO THE COOL SEA SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH A
BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE
WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.  A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS ON SUNDAY THEN A SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY THEN DISSIPATES OR
RETURNS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED.  THE WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LEADS TO WEAK OR NEGLIGIBLE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.  CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR INTERIOR AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING
PORTION.  HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...THEN MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
60S THEN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. /29

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES
OVER THE WESTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
STATES TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT MEANWHILE BRINGING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR OVERRUNNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN POPS TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.  THE BEST SHEAR WHICH OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INSTABILITY WHICH OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HOWEVER...0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES POTENTIALLY NEAR
150 M2/S2 WARRANT INTRODUCING THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG
STORMS...AND HAVE OPTED TO WORD THIS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY.  LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AND IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.20Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR
CIGS THROUGH 29.00Z THEN MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 29.12Z. EXPECT A MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT. BETTER LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS SPREADING INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND NEAR THE AL COAST LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINAL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVER THE INLAND BAYS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON HEATING. WELL
OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS ALSO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SFC RIDGE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BETTER ONSHORE FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  45  67  53  70 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   59  47  65  54  70 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      56  49  62  55  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   62  42  66  52  71 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  62  42  66  51  66 /  05  05  20  50  50
CAMDEN      61  42  64  52  68 /  05  20  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   59  44  66  50  73 /  05  20  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 280600
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015


.AVIATION...28.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 28/10Z WHEN MVFR CEILINGS (AND POSSIBLE MVFR
FOG) WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS. BY AROUND 28/15Z...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO RISE BACK ABOVE VFR CRITERIA BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN AFTER
01/00Z. 12/DS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE FCST TREND FOR THIS EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE INTACT. DID HAVE TO RAISE WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE 20-60 NM RANGE OF THE MARINE AREA AND MAKE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE OTHER FCST PARAMETERS
LOOKING GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST PACKAGE. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MIX HIGH LOW
CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 29 TO 34 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF
I-65...AND FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 61 DEGREES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
SYNOPTICS IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY...THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE FA REMAINING UNDER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS LOWERS THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...THE WARM-UP IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH
TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SWINGING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM
THAT HAS BEEN NOODLING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHERE IT
REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNEDAY BEFORE A FRONT
IS PUSHED SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REBUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  60  44  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  30
PENSACOLA   39  59  45  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  20
DESTIN      43  58  45  60  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   33  61  41  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  20
WAYNESBORO  29  60  42  64  52 /  05  05  05  30  30
CAMDEN      32  61  42  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  30
CRESTVIEW   37  61  43  62  49 /  05  05  05  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 280600
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015


.AVIATION...28.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 28/10Z WHEN MVFR CEILINGS (AND POSSIBLE MVFR
FOG) WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS. BY AROUND 28/15Z...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO RISE BACK ABOVE VFR CRITERIA BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN AFTER
01/00Z. 12/DS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE FCST TREND FOR THIS EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE INTACT. DID HAVE TO RAISE WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE 20-60 NM RANGE OF THE MARINE AREA AND MAKE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE OTHER FCST PARAMETERS
LOOKING GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST PACKAGE. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MIX HIGH LOW
CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 29 TO 34 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF
I-65...AND FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 61 DEGREES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
SYNOPTICS IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY...THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE FA REMAINING UNDER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS LOWERS THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...THE WARM-UP IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH
TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SWINGING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM
THAT HAS BEEN NOODLING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHERE IT
REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNEDAY BEFORE A FRONT
IS PUSHED SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REBUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  60  44  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  30
PENSACOLA   39  59  45  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  20
DESTIN      43  58  45  60  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   33  61  41  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  20
WAYNESBORO  29  60  42  64  52 /  05  05  05  30  30
CAMDEN      32  61  42  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  30
CRESTVIEW   37  61  43  62  49 /  05  05  05  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 280600
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015


.AVIATION...28.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 28/10Z WHEN MVFR CEILINGS (AND POSSIBLE MVFR
FOG) WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS. BY AROUND 28/15Z...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO RISE BACK ABOVE VFR CRITERIA BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN AFTER
01/00Z. 12/DS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE FCST TREND FOR THIS EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE INTACT. DID HAVE TO RAISE WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE 20-60 NM RANGE OF THE MARINE AREA AND MAKE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE OTHER FCST PARAMETERS
LOOKING GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST PACKAGE. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MIX HIGH LOW
CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 29 TO 34 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF
I-65...AND FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 61 DEGREES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
SYNOPTICS IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY...THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE FA REMAINING UNDER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS LOWERS THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...THE WARM-UP IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH
TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SWINGING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM
THAT HAS BEEN NOODLING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHERE IT
REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNEDAY BEFORE A FRONT
IS PUSHED SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REBUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  60  44  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  30
PENSACOLA   39  59  45  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  20
DESTIN      43  58  45  60  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   33  61  41  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  20
WAYNESBORO  29  60  42  64  52 /  05  05  05  30  30
CAMDEN      32  61  42  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  30
CRESTVIEW   37  61  43  62  49 /  05  05  05  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 280600
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015


.AVIATION...28.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 28/10Z WHEN MVFR CEILINGS (AND POSSIBLE MVFR
FOG) WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS. BY AROUND 28/15Z...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO RISE BACK ABOVE VFR CRITERIA BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN AFTER
01/00Z. 12/DS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE FCST TREND FOR THIS EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE INTACT. DID HAVE TO RAISE WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE 20-60 NM RANGE OF THE MARINE AREA AND MAKE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE OTHER FCST PARAMETERS
LOOKING GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST PACKAGE. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MIX HIGH LOW
CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 29 TO 34 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF
I-65...AND FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 61 DEGREES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
SYNOPTICS IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY...THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE FA REMAINING UNDER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS LOWERS THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...THE WARM-UP IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH
TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SWINGING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM
THAT HAS BEEN NOODLING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHERE IT
REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNEDAY BEFORE A FRONT
IS PUSHED SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REBUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  60  44  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  30
PENSACOLA   39  59  45  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  20
DESTIN      43  58  45  60  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   33  61  41  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  20
WAYNESBORO  29  60  42  64  52 /  05  05  05  30  30
CAMDEN      32  61  42  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  30
CRESTVIEW   37  61  43  62  49 /  05  05  05  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 280543
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
CREATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO TN/KY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE BAND
OF FLURRIES WITH IT. WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...BELIEVE IT IS TOO DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF
BMX AND LZK BOTH SHOWED THIS CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WERE FALLING NEAR THE
FORECASTED LOWS...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED THESE VALUES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM CURRENT VALUES OF 11KFT TO AROUND 06KFT BY 12Z.
WINDS BECOME MORE E/SE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS DOWN TO 2-3KFT. LIGHT RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
START AFTER 06Z TOMORROW.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 280543
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
CREATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO TN/KY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE BAND
OF FLURRIES WITH IT. WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...BELIEVE IT IS TOO DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF
BMX AND LZK BOTH SHOWED THIS CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WERE FALLING NEAR THE
FORECASTED LOWS...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED THESE VALUES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM CURRENT VALUES OF 11KFT TO AROUND 06KFT BY 12Z.
WINDS BECOME MORE E/SE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS DOWN TO 2-3KFT. LIGHT RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
START AFTER 06Z TOMORROW.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280543
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
CREATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO TN/KY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE BAND
OF FLURRIES WITH IT. WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...BELIEVE IT IS TOO DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF
BMX AND LZK BOTH SHOWED THIS CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WERE FALLING NEAR THE
FORECASTED LOWS...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED THESE VALUES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM CURRENT VALUES OF 11KFT TO AROUND 06KFT BY 12Z.
WINDS BECOME MORE E/SE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS DOWN TO 2-3KFT. LIGHT RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
START AFTER 06Z TOMORROW.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280543
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
CREATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO TN/KY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE BAND
OF FLURRIES WITH IT. WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...BELIEVE IT IS TOO DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF
BMX AND LZK BOTH SHOWED THIS CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WERE FALLING NEAR THE
FORECASTED LOWS...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED THESE VALUES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM CURRENT VALUES OF 11KFT TO AROUND 06KFT BY 12Z.
WINDS BECOME MORE E/SE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS DOWN TO 2-3KFT. LIGHT RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
START AFTER 06Z TOMORROW.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280539
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1139 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 280539
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1139 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 280539
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1139 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280539
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1139 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280453
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 280453
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280453
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280453
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 280400 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE FCST TREND FOR THIS EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE INTACT. DID HAVE TO RAISE WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE 20-60 NM RANGE OF THE MARINE AREA AND MAKE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE OTHER FCST PARAMETERS
LOOKING GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST PACKAGE. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MIX HIGH LOW
CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 29 TO 34 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF
I-65...AND FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 61 DEGREES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
SYNOPTICS IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY...THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE FA REMAINING UNDER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS LOWERS THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...THE WARM-UP IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH
TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SWINGING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM
THAT HAS BEEN NOODLING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHERE IT
REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNEDAY BEFORE A FRONT
IS PUSHED SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REBUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  60  44  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  30
PENSACOLA   39  59  45  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  20
DESTIN      43  58  45  60  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   33  61  41  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  20
WAYNESBORO  29  60  42  64  52 /  05  05  05  30  30
CAMDEN      32  61  42  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  30
CRESTVIEW   37  61  43  62  49 /  05  05  05  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 280400 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE FCST TREND FOR THIS EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE INTACT. DID HAVE TO RAISE WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE 20-60 NM RANGE OF THE MARINE AREA AND MAKE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE OTHER FCST PARAMETERS
LOOKING GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST PACKAGE. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MIX HIGH LOW
CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 29 TO 34 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF
I-65...AND FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 61 DEGREES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
SYNOPTICS IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY...THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE FA REMAINING UNDER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS LOWERS THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...THE WARM-UP IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH
TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SWINGING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM
THAT HAS BEEN NOODLING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHERE IT
REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNEDAY BEFORE A FRONT
IS PUSHED SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REBUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  60  44  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  30
PENSACOLA   39  59  45  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  20
DESTIN      43  58  45  60  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   33  61  41  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  20
WAYNESBORO  29  60  42  64  52 /  05  05  05  30  30
CAMDEN      32  61  42  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  30
CRESTVIEW   37  61  43  62  49 /  05  05  05  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 280400 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE FCST TREND FOR THIS EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE INTACT. DID HAVE TO RAISE WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE 20-60 NM RANGE OF THE MARINE AREA AND MAKE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE OTHER FCST PARAMETERS
LOOKING GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST PACKAGE. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MIX HIGH LOW
CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 29 TO 34 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF
I-65...AND FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 61 DEGREES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
SYNOPTICS IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY...THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE FA REMAINING UNDER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS LOWERS THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...THE WARM-UP IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH
TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SWINGING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM
THAT HAS BEEN NOODLING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHERE IT
REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNEDAY BEFORE A FRONT
IS PUSHED SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REBUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  60  44  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  30
PENSACOLA   39  59  45  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  20
DESTIN      43  58  45  60  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   33  61  41  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  20
WAYNESBORO  29  60  42  64  52 /  05  05  05  30  30
CAMDEN      32  61  42  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  30
CRESTVIEW   37  61  43  62  49 /  05  05  05  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 280400 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE FCST TREND FOR THIS EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE INTACT. DID HAVE TO RAISE WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE 20-60 NM RANGE OF THE MARINE AREA AND MAKE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE OTHER FCST PARAMETERS
LOOKING GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST PACKAGE. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MIX HIGH LOW
CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 29 TO 34 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF
I-65...AND FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 61 DEGREES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
SYNOPTICS IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY...THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE FA REMAINING UNDER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS LOWERS THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...THE WARM-UP IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH
TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SWINGING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM
THAT HAS BEEN NOODLING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHERE IT
REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNEDAY BEFORE A FRONT
IS PUSHED SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REBUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  60  44  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  30
PENSACOLA   39  59  45  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  20
DESTIN      43  58  45  60  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   33  61  41  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  20
WAYNESBORO  29  60  42  64  52 /  05  05  05  30  30
CAMDEN      32  61  42  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  30
CRESTVIEW   37  61  43  62  49 /  05  05  05  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 280301
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMP GRIDS TO FOLLOW LATEST TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
CREATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO TN/KY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE BAND
OF FLURRIES WITH IT. WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...BELIEVE IT IS TOO DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF
BMX AND LZK BOTH SHOWED THIS CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WERE FALLING NEAR THE
FORECASTED LOWS...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED THESE VALUES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 541 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS UNDER 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO E/SE SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL START TO SPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA. CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN LOWER TO AROUND 2KFT IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT
RAIN MOVES IN.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280301
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMP GRIDS TO FOLLOW LATEST TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
CREATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO TN/KY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE BAND
OF FLURRIES WITH IT. WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...BELIEVE IT IS TOO DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF
BMX AND LZK BOTH SHOWED THIS CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WERE FALLING NEAR THE
FORECASTED LOWS...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED THESE VALUES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 541 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS UNDER 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO E/SE SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL START TO SPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA. CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN LOWER TO AROUND 2KFT IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT
RAIN MOVES IN.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280301
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMP GRIDS TO FOLLOW LATEST TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
CREATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO TN/KY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE BAND
OF FLURRIES WITH IT. WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...BELIEVE IT IS TOO DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF
BMX AND LZK BOTH SHOWED THIS CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WERE FALLING NEAR THE
FORECASTED LOWS...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED THESE VALUES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 541 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS UNDER 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO E/SE SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL START TO SPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA. CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN LOWER TO AROUND 2KFT IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT
RAIN MOVES IN.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280301
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMP GRIDS TO FOLLOW LATEST TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
CREATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO TN/KY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE BAND
OF FLURRIES WITH IT. WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...BELIEVE IT IS TOO DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF
BMX AND LZK BOTH SHOWED THIS CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WERE FALLING NEAR THE
FORECASTED LOWS...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED THESE VALUES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 541 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS UNDER 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO E/SE SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL START TO SPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA. CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN LOWER TO AROUND 2KFT IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT
RAIN MOVES IN.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280301
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMP GRIDS TO FOLLOW LATEST TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
CREATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO TN/KY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE BAND
OF FLURRIES WITH IT. WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...BELIEVE IT IS TOO DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF
BMX AND LZK BOTH SHOWED THIS CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WERE FALLING NEAR THE
FORECASTED LOWS...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED THESE VALUES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 541 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS UNDER 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO E/SE SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL START TO SPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA. CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN LOWER TO AROUND 2KFT IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT
RAIN MOVES IN.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280301
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMP GRIDS TO FOLLOW LATEST TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
CREATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO TN/KY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE BAND
OF FLURRIES WITH IT. WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...BELIEVE IT IS TOO DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF
BMX AND LZK BOTH SHOWED THIS CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WERE FALLING NEAR THE
FORECASTED LOWS...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED THESE VALUES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 541 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS UNDER 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO E/SE SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL START TO SPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA. CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN LOWER TO AROUND 2KFT IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT
RAIN MOVES IN.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 280020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 280020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 272341
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
541 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 239 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

COLD CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AS THE POLAR JET
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A JET STREAK CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA, WHILE ANOTHER JET STREAK EXISTS OFF THE WEST COAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGNOSTICATED BY THE MED RANGE MODELS TO
CHANGE TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN LATER IN THE FORECAST. THIS WILL
BRING QUITE A SWING IN TEMPERATURES AND IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AS WE DRAW NEARER
TO SPRING.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 239 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MO SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE LOW-MID S-SW
FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ENOUGH LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT TO CAUSE SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP IN A SCT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
LAYER. FURTHERMORE, VIS SAT DOES SHOW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING THESE
CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THEN TN VALLEY TONIGHT WHICH MAY INHIBIT TEMPS
FALLING DRAMATICALLY. HOWEVER, WITH SNOW COVER STILL PRESENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY (AND SOURCE REGION OF COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS)
STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING.

THEN, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH THE SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS (JET STREAK) OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE WEST COAST JET STREAK BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO A TROUGH AND GAINS A POSITIVE TILT. MEANWHILE, AT THE
SFC ACROSS THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS, CAD IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (290-295K LEVELS) IS ALSO NOTED FROM THE
NAM/GFS MODELS WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT CROSSING N GA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHILE A WAA PROFILE DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAN
HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THAT AND EFFECTS FROM CAD, ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS OVER NE AL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT TIMES DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDGE FRONT.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER
THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC FRONT BACK TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST APPEARS TO CUTOFF OFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES JUST
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CA. BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT THIS ANOTHER UPSTREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTS TO AMPLIFY THIS CUTOFF LOW INTO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT IS THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO
INTRODUCE CHAOS INTO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BRING SYNOPTIC
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES (AND NORTH OVER OH RIVER
VALLEY) AND WARMER/HUMID CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
NOTICEABLE ON TUESDAY. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES, SENSIBLE
IMPACTS BECOME WIDELY DIVERGENT IN TIME WITH THE MED RANGE MODELS. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD BE IN THE 70S IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE REALIZED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S BUT HAVE LEFT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AS MID 60S FOR TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION SO
FAR WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
CASE GIVEN THE TYPICAL MODEL PROGRESSION OF A SLOW MOVING/AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. DESPITE THIS, HAVE LEFT THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON (RATHER THAN REMOVE) ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF UVM
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL OUTPUT DOES SUGGEST A POTENTIAL QLCS
EVENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGH
SHEAR (ESPECIALLY AT 0-3 KM). SO, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING COULD BE
OUR FIRST AT LEAST STRONG THUNDERSTORM EVENT EITHER ON TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH
5-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PRESENT WITH TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD RATHER THAN INCORPORATE A SINGLE BLEND/MODEL
FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS UNDER 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO E/SE SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL START TO SPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA. CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN LOWER TO AROUND 2KFT IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT
RAIN MOVES IN.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 272159
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MIX HIGH LOW
CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 29 TO 34 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF
I-65...AND FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 61 DEGREES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
SYNOPTICS IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY...THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE FA REMAINING UNDER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS LOWERS THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...THE WARM-UP IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH
TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SWINGING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM
THAT HAS BEEN NOODLING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHERE IT
REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNEDAY BEFORE A FRONT
IS PUSHED SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REBUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  60  44  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  30
PENSACOLA   39  59  45  63  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
DESTIN      43  58  45  60  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   33  61  41  61  50 /  05  05  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  29  60  42  64  52 /  05  05  05  30  30
CAMDEN      32  61  42  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  30
CRESTVIEW   37  61  43  62  49 /  05  05  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$

22/16






000
FXUS64 KMOB 272159
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MIX HIGH LOW
CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 29 TO 34 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF
I-65...AND FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 61 DEGREES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
SYNOPTICS IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY...THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE FA REMAINING UNDER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS LOWERS THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...THE WARM-UP IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH
TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SWINGING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM
THAT HAS BEEN NOODLING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHERE IT
REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNEDAY BEFORE A FRONT
IS PUSHED SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REBUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  60  44  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  30
PENSACOLA   39  59  45  63  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
DESTIN      43  58  45  60  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   33  61  41  61  50 /  05  05  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  29  60  42  64  52 /  05  05  05  30  30
CAMDEN      32  61  42  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  30
CRESTVIEW   37  61  43  62  49 /  05  05  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$

22/16







000
FXUS64 KMOB 272159
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MIX HIGH LOW
CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 29 TO 34 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF
I-65...AND FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 61 DEGREES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
SYNOPTICS IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY...THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE FA REMAINING UNDER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS LOWERS THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...THE WARM-UP IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH
TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SWINGING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM
THAT HAS BEEN NOODLING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHERE IT
REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNEDAY BEFORE A FRONT
IS PUSHED SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REBUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  60  44  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  30
PENSACOLA   39  59  45  63  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
DESTIN      43  58  45  60  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   33  61  41  61  50 /  05  05  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  29  60  42  64  52 /  05  05  05  30  30
CAMDEN      32  61  42  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  30
CRESTVIEW   37  61  43  62  49 /  05  05  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$

22/16






000
FXUS64 KMOB 272159
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MIX HIGH LOW
CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 29 TO 34 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF
I-65...AND FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 61 DEGREES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
SYNOPTICS IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY...THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE FA REMAINING UNDER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS LOWERS THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...THE WARM-UP IS A BIT SLOWER...WITH
TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SWINGING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM
THAT HAS BEEN NOODLING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHERE IT
REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNEDAY BEFORE A FRONT
IS PUSHED SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REBUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  60  44  63  53 /  05  05  05  30  30
PENSACOLA   39  59  45  63  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
DESTIN      43  58  45  60  53 /  05  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   33  61  41  61  50 /  05  05  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  29  60  42  64  52 /  05  05  05  30  30
CAMDEN      32  61  42  61  50 /  05  05  05  30  30
CRESTVIEW   37  61  43  62  49 /  05  05  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$

22/16







000
FXUS64 KBMX 272052
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/61







000
FXUS64 KBMX 272052
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/61







000
FXUS64 KBMX 272052
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/61








000
FXUS64 KHUN 272039
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
239 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AS THE POLAR JET
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A JET STREAK CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA, WHILE ANOTHER JET STREAK EXISTS OFF THE WEST COAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGNOSTICATED BY THE MED RANGE MODELS TO
CHANGE TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN LATER IN THE FORECAST. THIS WILL
BRING QUITE A SWING IN TEMPERATURES AND IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AS WE DRAW NEARER
TO SPRING.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MO SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE LOW-MID S-SW
FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ENOUGH LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT TO CAUSE SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP IN A SCT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
LAYER. FURTHERMORE, VIS SAT DOES SHOW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING THESE
CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THEN TN VALLEY TONIGHT WHICH MAY INHIBIT TEMPS
FALLING DRAMATICALLY. HOWEVER, WITH SNOW COVER STILL PRESENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY (AND SOURCE REGION OF COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS)
STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING.

THEN, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH THE SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS (JET STREAK) OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE WEST COAST JET STREAK BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO A TROUGH AND GAINS A POSITIVE TILT. MEANWHILE, AT THE
SFC ACROSS THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS, CAD IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (290-295K LEVELS) IS ALSO NOTED FROM THE
NAM/GFS MODELS WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT CROSSING N GA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHILE A WAA PROFILE DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAN
HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THAT AND EFFECTS FROM CAD, ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS OVER NE AL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT TIMES DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDGE FRONT.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER
THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC FRONT BACK TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST APPEARS TO CUTOFF OFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES JUST
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CA. BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT THIS ANOTHER UPSTREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTS TO AMPLIFY THIS CUTOFF LOW INTO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT IS THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO
INTRODUCE CHAOS INTO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BRING SYNOPTIC
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES (AND NORTH OVER OH RIVER
VALLEY) AND WARMER/HUMID CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
NOTICEABLE ON TUESDAY. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES, SENSIBLE
IMPACTS BECOME WIDELY DIVERGENT IN TIME WITH THE MED RANGE MODELS. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD BE IN THE 70S IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE REALIZED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S BUT HAVE LEFT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AS MID 60S FOR TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION SO
FAR WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
CASE GIVEN THE TYPICAL MODEL PROGRESSION OF A SLOW MOVING/AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. DESPITE THIS, HAVE LEFT THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON (RATHER THAN REMOVE) ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF UVM
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL OUTPUT DOES SUGGEST A POTENTIAL QLCS
EVENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGH
SHEAR (ESPECIALLY AT 0-3 KM). SO, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING COULD BE
OUR FIRST AT LEAST STRONG THUNDERSTORM EVENT EITHER ON TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH
5-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PRESENT WITH TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD RATHER THAN INCORPORATE A SINGLE BLEND/MODEL
FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1110 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH BASES ~090-120AGL LATE THIS EVENING LOWERING TO ~060AGL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    27  51  37  53 /   0   0  20  40
SHOALS        25  50  37  54 /   0   0  20  40
VINEMONT      27  50  37  54 /   0   0  20  40
FAYETTEVILLE  25  48  36  52 /   0   0  20  40
ALBERTVILLE   26  50  36  53 /   0   0  20  40
FORT PAYNE    26  48  34  48 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 272039
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
239 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AS THE POLAR JET
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A JET STREAK CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA, WHILE ANOTHER JET STREAK EXISTS OFF THE WEST COAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGNOSTICATED BY THE MED RANGE MODELS TO
CHANGE TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN LATER IN THE FORECAST. THIS WILL
BRING QUITE A SWING IN TEMPERATURES AND IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AS WE DRAW NEARER
TO SPRING.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MO SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE LOW-MID S-SW
FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ENOUGH LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT TO CAUSE SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP IN A SCT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
LAYER. FURTHERMORE, VIS SAT DOES SHOW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING THESE
CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THEN TN VALLEY TONIGHT WHICH MAY INHIBIT TEMPS
FALLING DRAMATICALLY. HOWEVER, WITH SNOW COVER STILL PRESENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY (AND SOURCE REGION OF COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS)
STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING.

THEN, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH THE SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS (JET STREAK) OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE WEST COAST JET STREAK BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO A TROUGH AND GAINS A POSITIVE TILT. MEANWHILE, AT THE
SFC ACROSS THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS, CAD IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (290-295K LEVELS) IS ALSO NOTED FROM THE
NAM/GFS MODELS WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT CROSSING N GA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHILE A WAA PROFILE DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAN
HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THAT AND EFFECTS FROM CAD, ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS OVER NE AL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT TIMES DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDGE FRONT.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER
THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC FRONT BACK TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST APPEARS TO CUTOFF OFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES JUST
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CA. BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT THIS ANOTHER UPSTREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTS TO AMPLIFY THIS CUTOFF LOW INTO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT IS THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO
INTRODUCE CHAOS INTO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BRING SYNOPTIC
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES (AND NORTH OVER OH RIVER
VALLEY) AND WARMER/HUMID CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
NOTICEABLE ON TUESDAY. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES, SENSIBLE
IMPACTS BECOME WIDELY DIVERGENT IN TIME WITH THE MED RANGE MODELS. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD BE IN THE 70S IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE REALIZED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S BUT HAVE LEFT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AS MID 60S FOR TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION SO
FAR WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
CASE GIVEN THE TYPICAL MODEL PROGRESSION OF A SLOW MOVING/AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. DESPITE THIS, HAVE LEFT THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON (RATHER THAN REMOVE) ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF UVM
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL OUTPUT DOES SUGGEST A POTENTIAL QLCS
EVENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGH
SHEAR (ESPECIALLY AT 0-3 KM). SO, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING COULD BE
OUR FIRST AT LEAST STRONG THUNDERSTORM EVENT EITHER ON TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH
5-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PRESENT WITH TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD RATHER THAN INCORPORATE A SINGLE BLEND/MODEL
FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1110 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH BASES ~090-120AGL LATE THIS EVENING LOWERING TO ~060AGL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    27  51  37  53 /   0   0  20  40
SHOALS        25  50  37  54 /   0   0  20  40
VINEMONT      27  50  37  54 /   0   0  20  40
FAYETTEVILLE  25  48  36  52 /   0   0  20  40
ALBERTVILLE   26  50  36  53 /   0   0  20  40
FORT PAYNE    26  48  34  48 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 272039
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
239 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AS THE POLAR JET
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A JET STREAK CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA, WHILE ANOTHER JET STREAK EXISTS OFF THE WEST COAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGNOSTICATED BY THE MED RANGE MODELS TO
CHANGE TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN LATER IN THE FORECAST. THIS WILL
BRING QUITE A SWING IN TEMPERATURES AND IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AS WE DRAW NEARER
TO SPRING.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MO SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE LOW-MID S-SW
FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ENOUGH LIFT MAY BE
PRESENT TO CAUSE SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP IN A SCT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
LAYER. FURTHERMORE, VIS SAT DOES SHOW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING THESE
CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THEN TN VALLEY TONIGHT WHICH MAY INHIBIT TEMPS
FALLING DRAMATICALLY. HOWEVER, WITH SNOW COVER STILL PRESENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY (AND SOURCE REGION OF COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS)
STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING.

THEN, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH THE SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS (JET STREAK) OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE WEST COAST JET STREAK BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO A TROUGH AND GAINS A POSITIVE TILT. MEANWHILE, AT THE
SFC ACROSS THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS, CAD IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (290-295K LEVELS) IS ALSO NOTED FROM THE
NAM/GFS MODELS WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT CROSSING N GA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHILE A WAA PROFILE DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAN
HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THAT AND EFFECTS FROM CAD, ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS OVER NE AL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT TIMES DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDGE FRONT.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER
THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC FRONT BACK TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST APPEARS TO CUTOFF OFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES JUST
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CA. BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT THIS ANOTHER UPSTREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTS TO AMPLIFY THIS CUTOFF LOW INTO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT IS THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO
INTRODUCE CHAOS INTO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BRING SYNOPTIC
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES (AND NORTH OVER OH RIVER
VALLEY) AND WARMER/HUMID CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
NOTICEABLE ON TUESDAY. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES, SENSIBLE
IMPACTS BECOME WIDELY DIVERGENT IN TIME WITH THE MED RANGE MODELS. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD BE IN THE 70S IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE REALIZED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S BUT HAVE LEFT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AS MID 60S FOR TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION SO
FAR WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
CASE GIVEN THE TYPICAL MODEL PROGRESSION OF A SLOW MOVING/AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. DESPITE THIS, HAVE LEFT THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON (RATHER THAN REMOVE) ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF UVM
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL OUTPUT DOES SUGGEST A POTENTIAL QLCS
EVENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGH
SHEAR (ESPECIALLY AT 0-3 KM). SO, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING COULD BE
OUR FIRST AT LEAST STRONG THUNDERSTORM EVENT EITHER ON TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH
5-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PRESENT WITH TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD RATHER THAN INCORPORATE A SINGLE BLEND/MODEL
FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1110 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH BASES ~090-120AGL LATE THIS EVENING LOWERING TO ~060AGL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    27  51  37  53 /   0   0  20  40
SHOALS        25  50  37  54 /   0   0  20  40
VINEMONT      27  50  37  54 /   0   0  20  40
FAYETTEVILLE  25  48  36  52 /   0   0  20  40
ALBERTVILLE   26  50  36  53 /   0   0  20  40
FORT PAYNE    26  48  34  48 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 271749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 271734 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1134 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A
MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH THE BEST CLEARING
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER CLOUDS REFORM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. A MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT REBUILDING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT DUE TO
TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT REDEVELOPING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV MOS FOR TEMPS
THROUGH TONIGHT LEANING A LITTLE HIGHER FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO
BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. 32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A LARGE 1040+ MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MEANWHILE EVOLVES TO A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY.  THIS PATTERN CHANGE
RESULTS IN A LIGHT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT...RESULTING IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY IN A DEEP 295-305K LAYER.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY THEN DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON SATURDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
NEAR 60 AND IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 CLOSE TO THE COAST...THEN
MILDER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPPER TROF STRENGTHENS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GOOD CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  FOR NOW EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR STRONG STORM POTENTIAL.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR FOR
THURSDAY AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 70S THEN NEAR 60 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND NEAR 60 OR IN THE
LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN TRENDING MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S. /29

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY. A MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES
SLOWLY EAST. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL ADJUST UPWARD THE CURRENT WAVE FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY FOR CONSISTENCY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BUILDS LATER IN THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  34  60  49  64 /  05  05  05  20  30
PENSACOLA   57  39  59  49  62 /  05  05  05  20  20
DESTIN      56  43  58  49  61 /  05  05  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   52  33  61  44  61 /  05  05  05  20  30
WAYNESBORO  49  29  60  46  62 /  05  05  05  20  40
CAMDEN      50  32  61  44  60 /  05  05  05  20  40
CRESTVIEW   58  37  61  46  61 /  05  05  05  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 271734 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1134 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A
MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH THE BEST CLEARING
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER CLOUDS REFORM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. A MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT REBUILDING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT DUE TO
TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT REDEVELOPING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV MOS FOR TEMPS
THROUGH TONIGHT LEANING A LITTLE HIGHER FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO
BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. 32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A LARGE 1040+ MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MEANWHILE EVOLVES TO A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY.  THIS PATTERN CHANGE
RESULTS IN A LIGHT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT...RESULTING IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY IN A DEEP 295-305K LAYER.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY THEN DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON SATURDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
NEAR 60 AND IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 CLOSE TO THE COAST...THEN
MILDER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPPER TROF STRENGTHENS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GOOD CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  FOR NOW EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR STRONG STORM POTENTIAL.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR FOR
THURSDAY AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 70S THEN NEAR 60 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND NEAR 60 OR IN THE
LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN TRENDING MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S. /29

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY. A MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES
SLOWLY EAST. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL ADJUST UPWARD THE CURRENT WAVE FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY FOR CONSISTENCY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BUILDS LATER IN THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  34  60  49  64 /  05  05  05  20  30
PENSACOLA   57  39  59  49  62 /  05  05  05  20  20
DESTIN      56  43  58  49  61 /  05  05  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   52  33  61  44  61 /  05  05  05  20  30
WAYNESBORO  49  29  60  46  62 /  05  05  05  20  40
CAMDEN      50  32  61  44  60 /  05  05  05  20  40
CRESTVIEW   58  37  61  46  61 /  05  05  05  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 271710 AAD
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1110 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH BASES ~090-120AGL LATE THIS EVENING LOWERING TO ~060AGL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271710 AAD
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1110 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH BASES ~090-120AGL LATE THIS EVENING LOWERING TO ~060AGL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271710 AAD
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1110 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH BASES ~090-120AGL LATE THIS EVENING LOWERING TO ~060AGL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271710 AAD
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1110 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH BASES ~090-120AGL LATE THIS EVENING LOWERING TO ~060AGL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271710 AAD
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1110 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH BASES ~090-120AGL LATE THIS EVENING LOWERING TO ~060AGL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271710 AAD
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1110 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH BASES ~090-120AGL LATE THIS EVENING LOWERING TO ~060AGL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 271614
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 271614
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 271614
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 271614
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 271614
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 271614
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 271540 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE THE -SN FROM THE ZFP. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 527 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...OVC CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE STILL HOLDING ACROSS BOTH
TERMINALS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THAT SCATTERING OUT AND SHOULD BE INTO KMSL SOON...WILL GO WITH 14Z
IN THE TAFS. FEW/SCT CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BKN CIG HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THICKEN BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT 8-10KFT AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-10 KT OUT OF 350-030 DEGREES.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO
THE BLENDED MODELS)BEFORE ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271540 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE THE -SN FROM THE ZFP. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 527 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...OVC CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE STILL HOLDING ACROSS BOTH
TERMINALS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THAT SCATTERING OUT AND SHOULD BE INTO KMSL SOON...WILL GO WITH 14Z
IN THE TAFS. FEW/SCT CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BKN CIG HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THICKEN BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT 8-10KFT AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-10 KT OUT OF 350-030 DEGREES.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO
THE BLENDED MODELS)BEFORE ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271540 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE THE -SN FROM THE ZFP. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 527 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...OVC CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE STILL HOLDING ACROSS BOTH
TERMINALS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THAT SCATTERING OUT AND SHOULD BE INTO KMSL SOON...WILL GO WITH 14Z
IN THE TAFS. FEW/SCT CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BKN CIG HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THICKEN BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT 8-10KFT AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-10 KT OUT OF 350-030 DEGREES.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO
THE BLENDED MODELS)BEFORE ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271540 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE THE -SN FROM THE ZFP. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 527 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...OVC CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE STILL HOLDING ACROSS BOTH
TERMINALS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THAT SCATTERING OUT AND SHOULD BE INTO KMSL SOON...WILL GO WITH 14Z
IN THE TAFS. FEW/SCT CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BKN CIG HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THICKEN BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT 8-10KFT AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-10 KT OUT OF 350-030 DEGREES.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO
THE BLENDED MODELS)BEFORE ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271540 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE THE -SN FROM THE ZFP. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 527 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...OVC CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE STILL HOLDING ACROSS BOTH
TERMINALS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THAT SCATTERING OUT AND SHOULD BE INTO KMSL SOON...WILL GO WITH 14Z
IN THE TAFS. FEW/SCT CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BKN CIG HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THICKEN BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT 8-10KFT AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-10 KT OUT OF 350-030 DEGREES.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO
THE BLENDED MODELS)BEFORE ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271540 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
940 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE THE -SN FROM THE ZFP. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE -SN/FLURRIES WERE
DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WERE ALSO DECREASING FROM NE TO SW, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY-SUNNY
SKY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 527 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...OVC CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE STILL HOLDING ACROSS BOTH
TERMINALS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THAT SCATTERING OUT AND SHOULD BE INTO KMSL SOON...WILL GO WITH 14Z
IN THE TAFS. FEW/SCT CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BKN CIG HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THICKEN BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT 8-10KFT AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-10 KT OUT OF 350-030 DEGREES.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO
THE BLENDED MODELS)BEFORE ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271338 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
738 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
TO ADD A 20 POP FOR -SN/FLURRIES IN SRN TN AND NERN AL.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
KHTX 88D IS SHOWING A BATCH OF -SN MOVING SWD THRU OUR SRN TN
COUNTIES. A CALL UP TO SEWANEE TN INDICATED A DUSTING OF -SN AND
CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS BATCH INDICATED A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ICE
CRYSTALS IN THESE CLOUDS FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT. THE UAH MIPS
CEILOMETER ALSO INDICATES HYDROMETEORS FALLING FROM THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.  UPDATE IS OUT.

AK
&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 527 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...OVC CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE STILL HOLDING ACROSS BOTH
TERMINALS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THAT SCATTERING OUT AND SHOULD BE INTO KMSL SOON...WILL GO WITH 14Z
IN THE TAFS. FEW/SCT CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BKN CIG HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THICKEN BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT 8-10KFT AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-10 KT OUT OF 350-030 DEGREES.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO
THE BLENDED MODELS)BEFORE ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271338 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
738 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
TO ADD A 20 POP FOR -SN/FLURRIES IN SRN TN AND NERN AL.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
KHTX 88D IS SHOWING A BATCH OF -SN MOVING SWD THRU OUR SRN TN
COUNTIES. A CALL UP TO SEWANEE TN INDICATED A DUSTING OF -SN AND
CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS BATCH INDICATED A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ICE
CRYSTALS IN THESE CLOUDS FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT. THE UAH MIPS
CEILOMETER ALSO INDICATES HYDROMETEORS FALLING FROM THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.  UPDATE IS OUT.

AK
&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 527 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...OVC CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE STILL HOLDING ACROSS BOTH
TERMINALS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THAT SCATTERING OUT AND SHOULD BE INTO KMSL SOON...WILL GO WITH 14Z
IN THE TAFS. FEW/SCT CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BKN CIG HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THICKEN BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT 8-10KFT AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-10 KT OUT OF 350-030 DEGREES.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO
THE BLENDED MODELS)BEFORE ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271338 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
738 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
TO ADD A 20 POP FOR -SN/FLURRIES IN SRN TN AND NERN AL.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
KHTX 88D IS SHOWING A BATCH OF -SN MOVING SWD THRU OUR SRN TN
COUNTIES. A CALL UP TO SEWANEE TN INDICATED A DUSTING OF -SN AND
CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS BATCH INDICATED A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ICE
CRYSTALS IN THESE CLOUDS FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT. THE UAH MIPS
CEILOMETER ALSO INDICATES HYDROMETEORS FALLING FROM THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.  UPDATE IS OUT.

AK
&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 527 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...OVC CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE STILL HOLDING ACROSS BOTH
TERMINALS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THAT SCATTERING OUT AND SHOULD BE INTO KMSL SOON...WILL GO WITH 14Z
IN THE TAFS. FEW/SCT CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BKN CIG HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THICKEN BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT 8-10KFT AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-10 KT OUT OF 350-030 DEGREES.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO
THE BLENDED MODELS)BEFORE ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 271320
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND TIGHTER BUT NOT OUTRAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM
TO BE TOO ROBUST AS BOUNDARY WAS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND RIDGE WILL
BE SLIDING CLOSER TOWARD INDIANA AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
GRADIENTS WEAKENING TODAY. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE CHILLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD SEE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE GREATER SUNSHINE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE DON`T HAVE THE MORNING STRATUS.
SHOULD FEEL ON COOL SIDE ANYWAY WITH THE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE A CHILLY START WITH EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FLAT...MAY STILL SEE WEAK
DISTURBANCES COMMENCE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
FURTHER ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA ALLOWING
FOR THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY DURING
THE DAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN STRENGTH. GRADIENTS WILL
PICK UP SOME WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH POSSIBLE WEDGING
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK
AS QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL
INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND A DECENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO HELP SLOW IT
DOWN WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. THE MAIN
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES
GIVE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WE LACK
A GOOD FOCUS WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED AND SOMEWHAT FLAT...NOT OVERLY EXCITED FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME WITH FRONT ARRIVAL. LEAVING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW FOR MID WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY TO ROUND OUT
THE END OF OUR FORECAST.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  24  49  36  50 /   0  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    41  27  51  36  51 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  27  52  40  54 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  42  27  56  40  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      43  30  55  41  55 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      49  32  53  39  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  50  32  57  43  57 /   0   0  10  20  40
TROY        52  33  56  42  57 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 271320
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND TIGHTER BUT NOT OUTRAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM
TO BE TOO ROBUST AS BOUNDARY WAS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND RIDGE WILL
BE SLIDING CLOSER TOWARD INDIANA AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
GRADIENTS WEAKENING TODAY. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE CHILLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD SEE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE GREATER SUNSHINE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE DON`T HAVE THE MORNING STRATUS.
SHOULD FEEL ON COOL SIDE ANYWAY WITH THE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE A CHILLY START WITH EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FLAT...MAY STILL SEE WEAK
DISTURBANCES COMMENCE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
FURTHER ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA ALLOWING
FOR THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY DURING
THE DAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN STRENGTH. GRADIENTS WILL
PICK UP SOME WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH POSSIBLE WEDGING
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK
AS QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL
INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND A DECENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO HELP SLOW IT
DOWN WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. THE MAIN
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES
GIVE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WE LACK
A GOOD FOCUS WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED AND SOMEWHAT FLAT...NOT OVERLY EXCITED FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME WITH FRONT ARRIVAL. LEAVING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW FOR MID WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY TO ROUND OUT
THE END OF OUR FORECAST.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  24  49  36  50 /   0  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    41  27  51  36  51 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  27  52  40  54 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  42  27  56  40  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      43  30  55  41  55 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      49  32  53  39  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  50  32  57  43  57 /   0   0  10  20  40
TROY        52  33  56  42  57 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 271320
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND TIGHTER BUT NOT OUTRAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM
TO BE TOO ROBUST AS BOUNDARY WAS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND RIDGE WILL
BE SLIDING CLOSER TOWARD INDIANA AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
GRADIENTS WEAKENING TODAY. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE CHILLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD SEE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE GREATER SUNSHINE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE DON`T HAVE THE MORNING STRATUS.
SHOULD FEEL ON COOL SIDE ANYWAY WITH THE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE A CHILLY START WITH EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FLAT...MAY STILL SEE WEAK
DISTURBANCES COMMENCE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
FURTHER ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA ALLOWING
FOR THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY DURING
THE DAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN STRENGTH. GRADIENTS WILL
PICK UP SOME WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH POSSIBLE WEDGING
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK
AS QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL
INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND A DECENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO HELP SLOW IT
DOWN WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. THE MAIN
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES
GIVE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WE LACK
A GOOD FOCUS WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED AND SOMEWHAT FLAT...NOT OVERLY EXCITED FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME WITH FRONT ARRIVAL. LEAVING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW FOR MID WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY TO ROUND OUT
THE END OF OUR FORECAST.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  24  49  36  50 /   0  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    41  27  51  36  51 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  27  52  40  54 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  42  27  56  40  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      43  30  55  41  55 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      49  32  53  39  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  50  32  57  43  57 /   0   0  10  20  40
TROY        52  33  56  42  57 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 271127 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
527 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO
THE BLENDED MODELS)BEFORE ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...OVC CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE STILL HOLDING ACROSS BOTH
TERMINALS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THAT SCATTERING OUT AND SHOULD BE INTO KMSL SOON...WILL GO WITH 14Z
IN THE TAFS. FEW/SCT CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BKN CIG HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THICKEN BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT 8-10KFT AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-10 KT OUT OF 350-030 DEGREES.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 271115
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
515 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND TIGHTER BUT NOT OUTRAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM
TO BE TOO ROBUST AS BOUNDARY WAS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND RIDGE WILL
BE SLIDING CLOSER TOWARD INDIANA AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
GRADIENTS WEAKENING TODAY. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE CHILLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD SEE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE GREATER SUNSHINE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE DON`T HAVE THE MORNING STRATUS.
SHOULD FEEL ON COOL SIDE ANYWAY WITH THE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE A CHILLY START WITH EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FLAT...MAY STILL SEE WEAK
DISTURBANCES COMMENCE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
FURTHER ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA ALLOWING
FOR THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY DURING
THE DAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN STRENGTH. GRADIENTS WILL
PICK UP SOME WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH POSSIBLE WEDGING
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK
AS QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL
INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND A DECENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO HELP SLOW IT
DOWN WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. THE MAIN
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES
GIVE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WE LACK
A GOOD FOCUS WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED AND SOMEWHAT FLAT...NOT OVERLY EXCITED FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME WITH FRONT ARRIVAL. LEAVING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW FOR MID WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY TO ROUND OUT
THE END OF OUR FORECAST.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  24  49  36  50 /   0  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    41  27  51  36  51 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  27  52  40  54 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  42  27  56  40  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      43  30  55  41  55 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      49  32  53  39  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  50  32  57  43  57 /   0   0  10  20  40
TROY        52  33  56  42  57 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58






000
FXUS64 KBMX 271115
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
515 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND TIGHTER BUT NOT OUTRAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM
TO BE TOO ROBUST AS BOUNDARY WAS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND RIDGE WILL
BE SLIDING CLOSER TOWARD INDIANA AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
GRADIENTS WEAKENING TODAY. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE CHILLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD SEE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE GREATER SUNSHINE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE DON`T HAVE THE MORNING STRATUS.
SHOULD FEEL ON COOL SIDE ANYWAY WITH THE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE A CHILLY START WITH EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FLAT...MAY STILL SEE WEAK
DISTURBANCES COMMENCE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
FURTHER ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA ALLOWING
FOR THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY DURING
THE DAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN STRENGTH. GRADIENTS WILL
PICK UP SOME WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH POSSIBLE WEDGING
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK
AS QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL
INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND A DECENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO HELP SLOW IT
DOWN WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. THE MAIN
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES
GIVE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WE LACK
A GOOD FOCUS WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED AND SOMEWHAT FLAT...NOT OVERLY EXCITED FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME WITH FRONT ARRIVAL. LEAVING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW FOR MID WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY TO ROUND OUT
THE END OF OUR FORECAST.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  24  49  36  50 /   0  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    41  27  51  36  51 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  27  52  40  54 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  42  27  56  40  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      43  30  55  41  55 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      49  32  53  39  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  50  32  57  43  57 /   0   0  10  20  40
TROY        52  33  56  42  57 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58





000
FXUS64 KMOB 271011
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A
MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH THE BEST CLEARING
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER CLOUDS REFORM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. A MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT REBUILDING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT DUE TO
TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT REDEVELOPING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV MOS FOR TEMPS
THROUGH TONIGHT LEANING A LITTLE HIGHER FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO
BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. 32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A LARGE 1040+ MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MEANWHILE EVOLVES TO A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY.  THIS PATTERN CHANGE
RESULTS IN A LIGHT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT...RESULTING IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY IN A DEEP 295-305K LAYER.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY THEN DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON SATURDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
NEAR 60 AND IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 CLOSE TO THE COAST...THEN
MILDER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPPER TROF STRENGTHENS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GOOD CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  FOR NOW EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR STRONG STORM POTENTIAL.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR FOR
THURSDAY AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 70S THEN NEAR 60 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND NEAR 60 OR IN THE
LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN TRENDING MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z. EXPECTED MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TO CLEAR SLOWLY TODAY REFORMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
28.12Z 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY. A
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES
SLOWLY EAST. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL ADJUST UPWARD THE CURRENT WAVE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY FOR CONSISTENCY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BUILDS LATER IN THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  34  59  49  64 /  05  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   57  41  60  49  62 /  05  10  10  20  20
DESTIN      56  44  58  49  61 /  05  10  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   52  33  62  44  61 /  05  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  49  30  59  46  62 /  05  10  10  20  40
CAMDEN      50  31  61  44  60 /  05  10  10  20  40
CRESTVIEW   58  37  61  46  61 /  05  10  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 271011
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A
MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH THE BEST CLEARING
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER CLOUDS REFORM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. A MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT REBUILDING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT DUE TO
TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT REDEVELOPING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV MOS FOR TEMPS
THROUGH TONIGHT LEANING A LITTLE HIGHER FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO
BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. 32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A LARGE 1040+ MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MEANWHILE EVOLVES TO A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY.  THIS PATTERN CHANGE
RESULTS IN A LIGHT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT...RESULTING IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY IN A DEEP 295-305K LAYER.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY THEN DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON SATURDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
NEAR 60 AND IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 CLOSE TO THE COAST...THEN
MILDER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPPER TROF STRENGTHENS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GOOD CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  FOR NOW EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR STRONG STORM POTENTIAL.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR FOR
THURSDAY AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 70S THEN NEAR 60 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND NEAR 60 OR IN THE
LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN TRENDING MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z. EXPECTED MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TO CLEAR SLOWLY TODAY REFORMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
28.12Z 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY. A
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES
SLOWLY EAST. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL ADJUST UPWARD THE CURRENT WAVE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY FOR CONSISTENCY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BUILDS LATER IN THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  34  59  49  64 /  05  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   57  41  60  49  62 /  05  10  10  20  20
DESTIN      56  44  58  49  61 /  05  10  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   52  33  62  44  61 /  05  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  49  30  59  46  62 /  05  10  10  20  40
CAMDEN      50  31  61  44  60 /  05  10  10  20  40
CRESTVIEW   58  37  61  46  61 /  05  10  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 270943
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR LAST PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO
THE BLENDED MODELS)BEFORE ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW N/NW GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1600Z...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK MOVING IN. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AOA 2KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SW/W UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION...CIGS REMAIN ABOVE
10KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    37  27  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        38  26  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      37  27  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  35  24  46  36 /  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   38  26  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    37  26  47  36 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270943
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR LAST PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO
THE BLENDED MODELS)BEFORE ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW N/NW GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1600Z...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK MOVING IN. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AOA 2KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SW/W UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION...CIGS REMAIN ABOVE
10KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    37  27  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        38  26  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      37  27  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  35  24  46  36 /  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   38  26  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    37  26  47  36 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 270923
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SERN US WITH DRY/SUNNY WX AND COOLER TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE 40S.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW N/NW GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1600Z...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK MOVING IN. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AOA 2KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SW/W UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION...CIGS REMAIN ABOVE
10KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    37  27  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        38  26  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      37  27  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  35  24  46  36 /  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   38  26  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    37  26  47  36 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270923
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SERN US WITH DRY/SUNNY WX AND COOLER TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE 40S.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW N/NW GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1600Z...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK MOVING IN. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AOA 2KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SW/W UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION...CIGS REMAIN ABOVE
10KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    37  27  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        38  26  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      37  27  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  35  24  46  36 /  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   38  26  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    37  26  47  36 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 270547
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...(12Z ISSUANCE)...A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND
8 TO 16 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  VFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT A
PATCHY BAND OF MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE CONDITIONS REBOUND TO VFR. /08 JW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM MID 30S FAR INTERIOR ZONES
TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST...AND ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE
EXPECTED FCST HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE. CURRENT DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES INDICATING THAT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER
MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND MID 30S AT THE COAST STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
THE OTHER FCST PARAMETERS LOOKING GOOD TOO AS WELL...THUS WILL MAKE
NO ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST PACKAGE. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...(00Z ISSUANCE)...NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MVFR CEILINGS FROM WEST
TO EAST OR GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR...EXPECT MOST OF THE FLYING
AREA TO BE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  VFR
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER STRATUS
DECK PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE A COUPLE HOURS OF LOW END MVFR OR IFR AROUND DAY BREAK
TOMORROW BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. /08 JW

******************************PREVIOUS FORECAST*****************

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH AND ALLOW
A LOW STRATUS DECK TO REFORM BY LATE TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE FROM EAST TO WEST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 28 TO 33 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH
MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS EAST
ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WSW-ENE ORIENTED TROUGH. THIS SHIFTS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST...TO OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHIFTS LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...ALONG WITH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...STARTING IN THE MID LEVELS
SATURDAY AND PROGRESSING TO THE LOWER LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SETS UP. AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY RAIN THROUGH
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....AN UPPER
SYSTEM SWINGS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CAROLINAS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...TO A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER/NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS BRINGS A GENERAL
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THE FA. AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO SWING
EAST...BRINGING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS TO THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND INWARD TO THE MID MISS/TENN RIVER VALLEYS. THE FA
IS ON THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIP...WITH
WESTERN...THEN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SEEING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
RUMBLERS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO SWING EAST...DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TAKING IT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO BE BEST ORGANIZED OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE FA...BUT OTHER THAN A WARMING
TREND...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY(FOR US...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.)

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SWING EAST...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE BAND OF BEST RAIN EASTWARD BEFORE
PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS THE FA EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT(GFS) OR
THURSDAY(ECMWF). EITHER IS PROBABLE...SO HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE
TIMING. EITHER WAY...UNTIL FROPA...TEMPS AND POPS ABOVE SEASONAL
UNTIL THURSDAY....THEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500 TO 2000 FEET WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS OF AROUND 1500 FEET
WILL THEN RETURN AFTER 27.09Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REDEVELOP
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY AS A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN GULF REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL REBUILD TO
3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY BY SUNDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      32  54  35  60  45 /  05  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   35  56  40  60  46 /  05  05  05  05  10
DESTIN      38  56  44  57  47 /  05  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   30  54  33  60  42 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  29  48  30  59  41 /  05  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      29  50  33  60  41 /  05  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   33  59  36  60  43 /  05  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KHUN 270546
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 907 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BELOW
FREEZING...ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z. A COLD FRONT ENTERING NW ALABAMA AS OF 03Z
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 06Z. WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM A
REFREEZING OF THE SNOW MELT THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW N/NW GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1600Z...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK MOVING IN. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AOA 2KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SW/W UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION...CIGS REMAIN ABOVE
10KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 270546
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 907 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BELOW
FREEZING...ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z. A COLD FRONT ENTERING NW ALABAMA AS OF 03Z
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 06Z. WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM A
REFREEZING OF THE SNOW MELT THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW N/NW GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1600Z...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK MOVING IN. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AOA 2KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SW/W UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION...CIGS REMAIN ABOVE
10KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 270546
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU
THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
THE FOG. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR NW DUE TO
MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. UPDATES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270546
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU
THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
THE FOG. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR NW DUE TO
MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. UPDATES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 270546
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 907 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BELOW
FREEZING...ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z. A COLD FRONT ENTERING NW ALABAMA AS OF 03Z
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 06Z. WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM A
REFREEZING OF THE SNOW MELT THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW N/NW GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1600Z...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK MOVING IN. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AOA 2KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SW/W UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION...CIGS REMAIN ABOVE
10KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 270546
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 907 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BELOW
FREEZING...ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z. A COLD FRONT ENTERING NW ALABAMA AS OF 03Z
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 06Z. WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM A
REFREEZING OF THE SNOW MELT THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW N/NW GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1600Z...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK MOVING IN. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AOA 2KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SW/W UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION...CIGS REMAIN ABOVE
10KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 270546
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU
THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
THE FOG. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR NW DUE TO
MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. UPDATES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270546
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU
THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
THE FOG. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR NW DUE TO
MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. UPDATES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 270546
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 907 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BELOW
FREEZING...ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z. A COLD FRONT ENTERING NW ALABAMA AS OF 03Z
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 06Z. WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM A
REFREEZING OF THE SNOW MELT THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW N/NW GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1600Z...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK MOVING IN. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AOA 2KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SW/W UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION...CIGS REMAIN ABOVE
10KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 270546
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 907 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BELOW
FREEZING...ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z. A COLD FRONT ENTERING NW ALABAMA AS OF 03Z
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 06Z. WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM A
REFREEZING OF THE SNOW MELT THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW N/NW GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1600Z...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK MOVING IN. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AOA 2KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SW/W UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION...CIGS REMAIN ABOVE
10KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 270546
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU
THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
THE FOG. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR NW DUE TO
MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. UPDATES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270546
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU
THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
THE FOG. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR NW DUE TO
MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. UPDATES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 270546
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 907 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BELOW
FREEZING...ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z. A COLD FRONT ENTERING NW ALABAMA AS OF 03Z
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 06Z. WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM A
REFREEZING OF THE SNOW MELT THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW N/NW GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1600Z...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK MOVING IN. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AOA 2KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SW/W UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION...CIGS REMAIN ABOVE
10KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 270546
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 907 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BELOW
FREEZING...ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z. A COLD FRONT ENTERING NW ALABAMA AS OF 03Z
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 06Z. WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM A
REFREEZING OF THE SNOW MELT THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW N/NW GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1600Z...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK MOVING IN. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AOA 2KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SW/W UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION...CIGS REMAIN ABOVE
10KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 270546
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU
THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
THE FOG. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR NW DUE TO
MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. UPDATES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270546
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU
THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
THE FOG. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR NW DUE TO
MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. UPDATES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 270349 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
949 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM MID 30S FAR INTERIOR ZONES TO THE LOWER
40S NEAR THE COAST...AND ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE EXPECTED FCST
HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INDICATING
THAT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND
MID 30S AT THE COAST STILL LOOK REASONABLE. THE OTHER FCST PARAMETERS
LOOKING GOOD TOO AS WELL...THUS WILL MAKE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST
PACKAGE. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...(00Z ISSUANCE)...NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MVFR CEILINGS FROM WEST
TO EAST OR GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR...EXPECT MOST OF THE FLYING
AREA TO BE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  VFR
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER STRATUS
DECK PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE A COUPLE HOURS OF LOW END MVFR OR IFR AROUND DAY BREAK
TOMORROW BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. /08 JW

******************************PREVIOUS FORECAST*****************

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH AND ALLOW
A LOW STRATUS DECK TO REFORM BY LATE TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE FROM EAST TO WEST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 28 TO 33 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH
MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS EAST
ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WSW-ENE ORIENTED TROUGH. THIS SHIFTS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST...TO OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHIFTS LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...ALONG WITH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...STARTING IN THE MID LEVELS
SATURDAY AND PROGRESSING TO THE LOWER LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SETS UP. AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY RAIN THROUGH
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....AN UPPER
SYSTEM SWINGS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CAROLINAS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...TO A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER/NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS BRINGS A GENERAL
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THE FA. AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO SWING
EAST...BRINGING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS TO THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND INWARD TO THE MID MISS/TENN RIVER VALLEYS. THE FA
IS ON THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIP...WITH
WESTERN...THEN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SEEING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
RUMBLERS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO SWING EAST...DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TAKING IT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO BE BEST ORGANIZED OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE FA...BUT OTHER THAN A WARMING
TREND...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY(FOR US...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.)

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SWING EAST...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE BAND OF BEST RAIN EASTWARD BEFORE
PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS THE FA EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT(GFS) OR
THURSDAY(ECMWF). EITHER IS PROBABLE...SO HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE
TIMING. EITHER WAY...UNTIL FROPA...TEMPS AND POPS ABOVE SEASONAL
UNTIL THURSDAY....THEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500 TO 2000 FEET WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS OF AROUND 1500 FEET
WILL THEN RETURN AFTER 27.09Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REDEVELOP
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY AS A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN GULF REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL REBUILD TO
3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY BY SUNDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      32  54  35  60  45 /  05  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   35  56  40  60  46 /  05  05  05  05  10
DESTIN      38  56  44  57  47 /  05  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   30  54  33  60  42 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  29  48  30  59  41 /  05  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      29  50  33  60  41 /  05  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   33  59  36  60  43 /  05  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 270349 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
949 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM MID 30S FAR INTERIOR ZONES TO THE LOWER
40S NEAR THE COAST...AND ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE EXPECTED FCST
HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INDICATING
THAT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND
MID 30S AT THE COAST STILL LOOK REASONABLE. THE OTHER FCST PARAMETERS
LOOKING GOOD TOO AS WELL...THUS WILL MAKE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST
PACKAGE. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...(00Z ISSUANCE)...NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MVFR CEILINGS FROM WEST
TO EAST OR GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR...EXPECT MOST OF THE FLYING
AREA TO BE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  VFR
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER STRATUS
DECK PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE A COUPLE HOURS OF LOW END MVFR OR IFR AROUND DAY BREAK
TOMORROW BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. /08 JW

******************************PREVIOUS FORECAST*****************

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH AND ALLOW
A LOW STRATUS DECK TO REFORM BY LATE TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE FROM EAST TO WEST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 28 TO 33 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH
MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS EAST
ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WSW-ENE ORIENTED TROUGH. THIS SHIFTS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST...TO OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHIFTS LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...ALONG WITH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...STARTING IN THE MID LEVELS
SATURDAY AND PROGRESSING TO THE LOWER LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SETS UP. AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY RAIN THROUGH
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....AN UPPER
SYSTEM SWINGS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CAROLINAS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...TO A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER/NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS BRINGS A GENERAL
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THE FA. AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO SWING
EAST...BRINGING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS TO THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND INWARD TO THE MID MISS/TENN RIVER VALLEYS. THE FA
IS ON THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIP...WITH
WESTERN...THEN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SEEING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
RUMBLERS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO SWING EAST...DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TAKING IT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO BE BEST ORGANIZED OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE FA...BUT OTHER THAN A WARMING
TREND...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY(FOR US...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.)

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SWING EAST...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE BAND OF BEST RAIN EASTWARD BEFORE
PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS THE FA EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT(GFS) OR
THURSDAY(ECMWF). EITHER IS PROBABLE...SO HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE
TIMING. EITHER WAY...UNTIL FROPA...TEMPS AND POPS ABOVE SEASONAL
UNTIL THURSDAY....THEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500 TO 2000 FEET WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS OF AROUND 1500 FEET
WILL THEN RETURN AFTER 27.09Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REDEVELOP
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY AS A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN GULF REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL REBUILD TO
3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY BY SUNDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      32  54  35  60  45 /  05  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   35  56  40  60  46 /  05  05  05  05  10
DESTIN      38  56  44  57  47 /  05  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   30  54  33  60  42 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  29  48  30  59  41 /  05  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      29  50  33  60  41 /  05  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   33  59  36  60  43 /  05  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 270307
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
907 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BELOW
FREEZING...ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z. A COLD FRONT ENTERING NW ALABAMA AS OF 03Z
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 06Z. WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM A
REFREEZING OF THE SNOW MELT THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 537 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE SHOULD ARRIVE AT BOTH
TERMINALS BETWEEN 02-03Z THIS EVENING. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PROB REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 10-12KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL HELP TO
CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING BUT...WESTERLY FLOW
IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL STREAM MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA
9KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270307
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
907 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BELOW
FREEZING...ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z. A COLD FRONT ENTERING NW ALABAMA AS OF 03Z
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 06Z. WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM A
REFREEZING OF THE SNOW MELT THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 537 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE SHOULD ARRIVE AT BOTH
TERMINALS BETWEEN 02-03Z THIS EVENING. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PROB REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 10-12KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL HELP TO
CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING BUT...WESTERLY FLOW
IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL STREAM MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA
9KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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