[top]
000
FXUS64 KMOB 242325
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...[00Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUN. A FEW
LOW TO MID CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT
8 TO 12 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 9 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AND PCPN-FREE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON) TOMORROW. MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA ONLY SLIGHT ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LOOK FOR CONTINUED NO PCPN. BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ALL OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
12/DS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN NIGHTTIME LOWS. NUMBERS IN THE MID
50S INTERIOR...LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE AREA
WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH.
CONSIDERING THE 24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH NON-
ZERO WILL NONETHELESS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW AT 10% OR LESS. UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INTERIOR IS SUPPORTED...WHILE BEACHES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE EACH NIGHT...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY
NEXT WEEK...TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
INCREASING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LOW DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION. ALTHOUGH CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...NOT MEETING ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC)...KBDI AND WIND SPEED CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 59 86 61 86 64 / 00 00 00 05 05
PENSACOLA 63 87 66 85 68 / 00 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 67 79 68 83 70 / 00 00 00 05 05
EVERGREEN 50 87 54 89 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
WAYNESBORO 51 87 54 88 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
CAMDEN 49 87 53 88 60 / 00 00 00 05 05
CRESTVIEW 50 89 53 90 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KBMX 242318
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
618 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS HAS INVADED ALABAMA AS AN UPPER TROF
DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS WITH MOST
INTRUSIONS OF COOL AIR THIS LATE IN THE SPRING...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT STAY LONG AS THE UPPER TROF QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE VALUES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA POSSIBLY SETTING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
ALABAMA WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE AVERAGE
READINGS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
58/ROSE
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER TROF WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...DESPITE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE...RESULTING IN MID SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND REMAIN
BELOW 7 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.
05/MA
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KHUN 242308
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
608 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TROUGHING
NOTED ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS, AND RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN MCS CONTINUED MEANDERING SOUTHWARD OVER
SOUTHERN TX, WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE HIGH PLAINS (ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING U/L DISTURBANCE). LOCALLY, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AND CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX
THIS AFTN.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING, WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE, AND UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING, MORNING LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC/ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD, A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. IT IS AT THIS POINT
IN THE FORECAST THAT THE DETAILS BEGIN TO GET MURKY...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, EXACTLY
WHERE IT SETS UP WILL BE ONE KEY PART TO THE EVENTUAL FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE OTHER KEY PART IS THAT THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS WELL, PLACING
THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MCS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WHETHER OR NOT
WE`LL ACTUALLY SEE ANY ACTIVITY LOCALLY IS THE BIG QUESTION. MODELS
TYPICALLY DO NOT PERFORM WELL DURING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE TN VALLEY,
AND THEREFORE TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT.
AS SUCH, HAVE GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGY VS CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT, AND
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY WETTER FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (SCHC POPS). THOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
BEYOND MEMORIAL DAY, THE UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, MAKING FOR A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID END TO THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, MAKING FOR UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90-DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL NOT FORMALLY
INTRODUCE POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME JUST YET, AWAITING FURTHER MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL KEEP VFR CONDITONS FOR BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.
07
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KMOB 242052
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AND PCPN-FREE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON) TOMORROW. MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA ONLY SLIGHT ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LOOK FOR CONTINUED NO PCPN. BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ALL OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
12/DS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN NIGHTTIME LOWS. NUMBERS IN THE MID
50S INTERIOR...LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE AREA
WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH.
CONSIDERING THE 24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH NON-
ZERO WILL NONETHELESS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW AT 10% OR LESS. UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INTERIOR IS SUPPORTED...WHILE BEACHES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE EACH NIGHT...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY
NEXT WEEK...TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
INCREASING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LOW DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION. ALTHOUGH CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...NOT MEETING ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC)...KBDI AND WIND SPEED CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 59 86 61 86 64 / 00 00 00 05 05
PENSACOLA 63 87 66 85 68 / 00 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 67 79 68 83 70 / 00 00 00 05 05
EVERGREEN 50 87 54 89 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
WAYNESBORO 51 87 54 88 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
CAMDEN 49 87 53 88 60 / 00 00 00 05 05
CRESTVIEW 50 89 53 90 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 241955
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
255 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TROUGHING
NOTED ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS, AND RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN MCS CONTINUED MEANDERING SOUTHWARD OVER
SOUTHERN TX, WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE HIGH PLAINS (ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING U/L DISTURBANCE). LOCALLY, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AND CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX
THIS AFTN.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING, WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE, AND UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING, MORNING LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC/ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD, A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. IT IS AT THIS POINT
IN THE FORECAST THAT THE DETAILS BEGIN TO GET MURKY...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, EXACTLY
WHERE IT SETS UP WILL BE ONE KEY PART TO THE EVENTUAL FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE OTHER KEY PART IS THAT THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS WELL, PLACING
THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MCS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WHETHER OR NOT
WE`LL ACTUALLY SEE ANY ACTIVITY LOCALLY IS THE BIG QUESTION. MODELS
TYPICALLY DO NOT PERFORM WELL DURING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE TN VALLEY,
AND THEREFORE TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT.
AS SUCH, HAVE GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGY VS CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT, AND
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY WETTER FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (SCHC POPS). THOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
BEYOND MEMORIAL DAY, THE UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, MAKING FOR A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID END TO THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, MAKING FOR UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90-DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL NOT FORMALLY
INTRODUCE POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME JUST YET, AWAITING FURTHER MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH MSL/HSV FOR THE
DURATION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SWD INTO THE REGION. FEW CU ARND 4 KFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SKC BY EARLY EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLY RETURNING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NNE WIND OF 10G18 KNOTS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH/VEER TO NE BY THIS EVENING...WITH LGT/VRB FLOW
REGIME EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
70/DD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 46 80 53 83 / 0 0 10 20
SHOALS 46 81 51 83 / 0 0 10 20
VINEMONT 48 79 50 81 / 0 0 10 20
FAYETTEVILLE 46 77 50 80 / 0 0 10 20
ALBERTVILLE 50 77 50 77 / 0 0 10 20
FORT PAYNE 44 78 47 81 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 241945
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
245 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS HAS INVADED ALABAMA AS AN UPPER TROF
DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS WITH MOST
INTRUSIONS OF COOL AIR THIS LATE IN THE SPRING...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT STAY LONG AS THE UPPER TROF QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE VALUES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA POSSIBLY SETTING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
ALABAMA WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE AVERAGE
READINGS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
58/ROSE
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER TROF WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...DESPITE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE...RESULTING IN MID SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
POST FRONTAL/FAIR WEATHER STRATOCU DECK MAINLY ERODED...AND WITH
NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24
HOURS...ONLY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE BUSTY/BREEZY NORTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CROSSWIND/RUNWAY ISSUES. NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AT OR JUST ABOVE 10KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AT TIMES FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
DIRECTION VARIABILITY EITHER SIDE OF 360 DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE AS SUNSET APPROACHES THIS EVENING. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NNE TO NE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW...WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
02/JD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 46 78 46 82 54 / 0 0 10 10 10
ANNISTON 46 80 48 83 56 / 0 0 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 49 81 51 85 61 / 0 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 48 83 50 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
CALERA 49 82 50 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 49 80 49 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 51 84 52 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 10
TROY 47 83 49 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 241758
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1258 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1108 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION THIS MORNING...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED. DID UPDATE SKY COVER GRIDS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO
REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S...BUT IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG INSOLATION.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH MSL/HSV FOR THE
DURATION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SWD INTO THE REGION. FEW CU ARND 4 KFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SKC BY EARLY EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLY RETURNING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NNE WIND OF 10G18 KNOTS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH/VEER TO NE BY THIS EVENING...WITH LGT/VRB FLOW
REGIME EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
70/DD
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 241718
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1218 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
POST FRONTAL/FAIR WEATHER STRATOCU DECK MAINLY ERODED...AND WITH
NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24
HOURS...ONLY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE BUSTY/BREEZY NORTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CROSSWIND/RUNWAY ISSUES. NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AT OR JUST ABOVE 10KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AT TIMES FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
DIRECTION VARIABILITY EITHER SIDE OF 360 DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE AS SUNSET APPROACHES THIS EVENING. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NNE TO NE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW...WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
02/JD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF FRONTAL STRATO-CUMULUS HAS WORKED ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CUMULUS FIELD IS SHRINKING IN
AREAL COVERAGE AND EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-59 DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...BUT THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONCE THE CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES.
58/ROSE
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
02/58/02
000
FXUS64 KMOB 241714 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 87 56 85 60 86 / 05 00 00 00 05
PENSACOLA 89 61 85 64 85 / 05 00 00 00 05
DESTIN 85 63 83 66 83 / 00 00 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 85 50 86 52 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 84 51 86 54 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CAMDEN 83 49 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CRESTVIEW 90 50 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
21/16
000
FXUS64 KMOB 241714 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 87 56 85 60 86 / 05 00 00 00 05
PENSACOLA 89 61 85 64 85 / 05 00 00 00 05
DESTIN 85 63 83 66 83 / 00 00 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 85 50 86 52 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 84 51 86 54 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CAMDEN 83 49 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CRESTVIEW 90 50 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 241608
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1108 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION THIS MORNING...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED. DID UPDATE SKY COVER GRIDS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO
REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S...BUT IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG INSOLATION.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BREAKING UP AND LIFTING
NEARING 15Z. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND
PERIODICALLY GUST TO NEAR 18KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NNE AND SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CCC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 151 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, AS THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS MOVED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BEGINS TO BREAK. THE MID-UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS FINALLY LIFTED OFF TO
THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PROVIDING STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MT/WY/DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
LOWS IS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC, THE CYCLONE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS PUSHED A CP AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ENSUING INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING A GUSTY N/NE WIND ALONG WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY. IN FACT, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
(OH RIVER VALLEY) AND CIRRUS CANOPY FROM TX CONVECTION WILL RESULT
IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WHILE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX THIS EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY SHOULD MEAN A DROP IN TEMPS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY, THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
SEABOARD RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT, A COUPLE OF PRONOUNCED EDDIES/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST MAY DEVELOP MCS/QLCS FEATURES
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WITH THE
PREVAILING NW STEERING FLOW MAY IMPACT THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAPIDLY MOVING FEATURE (DIFFICULT TO
TIME AT THIS POINT). LINGERING CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER FROM THE MCS ON
SUNDAY MAY HAMPER RAPID WARMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES). THUS,
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS EPISODE (WITH THE SOUTHEAST
IN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT) ON MONDAY, BUT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
TIME. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH THE
EXITING EAST COAST UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE TO A RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE MID TO UPPER EXTRA-TROPICAL
CYCLONES TRANSLATING NORTH ATOP THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO ONTARIO. SO, A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY
ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (WITH THURSDAY LIKELY BEING THE HOTTEST
DAY)ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE, DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
CENTERED ALMOST ATOP THE TN VALLEY, AM HESITANT TO PLACE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD
SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC PULSE-LIKE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
PREVAILING FLOW AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED, BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST YET. OTHERWISE, MADE
TWEAKS TO THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SL.77
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 241510
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1010 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF FRONTAL STRATO-CUMULUS HAS WORKED ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CUMULUS FIELD IS SHRINKING IN
AREAL COVERAGE AND EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-59 DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...BUT THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONCE THE CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED. THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS...WHICH COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES
FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
56/GDG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO A BIT OF MIXING
STILL OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CWA AND STRETCHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS POORLY DEFINED BUT SOME WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY USHERING IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR.
PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS TODAY WITH VALUES
AS LOW AS 0.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WARM
UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THESE FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS AND FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. IF YOU ENJOY THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES PLEASE GET OUT
AND ENJOY THEM BEFORE THE HEAT BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE MCS/QLCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
STAY TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. WE COULD HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS THAT COULD MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST A BIT TRICKY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND
MODERATED TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MEMORIAL
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS
A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENT PATTERN UNDER THE RIDGE.
05/MA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 74 45 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 10 10
ANNISTON 75 48 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 76 49 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 80 50 82 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
CALERA 79 51 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 79 52 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 83 52 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
TROY 84 50 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 241125 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 151 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, AS THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS MOVED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BEGINS TO BREAK. THE MID-UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS FINALLY LIFTED OFF TO
THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PROVIDING STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MT/WY/DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
LOWS IS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC, THE CYCLONE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS PUSHED A CP AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ENSUING INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING A GUSTY N/NE WIND ALONG WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY. IN FACT, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
(OH RIVER VALLEY) AND CIRRUS CANOPY FROM TX CONVECTION WILL RESULT
IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WHILE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX THIS EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY SHOULD MEAN A DROP IN TEMPS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY, THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
SEABOARD RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT, A COUPLE OF PRONOUNCED EDDIES/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST MAY DEVELOP MCS/QLCS FEATURES
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WITH THE
PREVAILING NW STEERING FLOW MAY IMPACT THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAPIDLY MOVING FEATURE (DIFFICULT TO
TIME AT THIS POINT). LINGERING CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER FROM THE MCS ON
SUNDAY MAY HAMPER RAPID WARMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES). THUS,
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS EPISODE (WITH THE SOUTHEAST
IN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT) ON MONDAY, BUT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
TIME. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH THE
EXITING EAST COAST UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE TO A RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE MID TO UPPER EXTRA-TROPICAL
CYCLONES TRANSLATING NORTH ATOP THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO ONTARIO. SO, A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY
ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (WITH THURSDAY LIKELY BEING THE HOTTEST
DAY)ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE, DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
CENTERED ALMOST ATOP THE TN VALLEY, AM HESITANT TO PLACE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD
SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC PULSE-LIKE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
PREVAILING FLOW AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED, BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST YET. OTHERWISE, MADE
TWEAKS TO THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SL.77
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BREAKING UP AND LIFTING
NEARING 15Z. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND
PERIODICALLY GUST TO NEAR 18KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NNE AND SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CCC
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 241120
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO A BIT OF MIXING
STILL OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CWA AND STRETCHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS POORLY DEFINED BUT SOME WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY USHERING IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR.
PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS TODAY WITH VALUES
AS LOW AS 0.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WARM
UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THESE FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS AND FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. IF YOU ENJOY THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES PLEASE GET OUT
AND ENJOY THEM BEFORE THE HEAT BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE MCS/QLCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
STAY TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. WE COULD HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS THAT COULD MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST A BIT TRICKY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND
MODERATED TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MEMORIAL
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS
A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENT PATTERN UNDER THE RIDGE.
05/MA
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED. THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS...WHICH COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES
FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
56/GDG
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY 25TH.
RECORDSFORECAST
BIRMINGHAM4548
TUSCALOOSA5149
MONTGOMERY5152
ANNISTON4747
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 74 45 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 10 10
ANNISTON 75 48 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 76 49 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 81 50 82 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
CALERA 79 51 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 79 52 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 83 52 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
TROY 83 50 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 240942
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
442 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN
THE DEEP LAYERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO THE AL/FL COASTLINE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST BEHIND
A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT TODAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO MOSTLY
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN AREAS TO
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST. /21
THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY HAS
SHIFTED EAST...WITH THE RIDGE-LINE JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED OVER TX BY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR THE FA...SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR HAS MOVE OVER THE AREA UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE-LINE...AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. THIS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT IS DUE TO A BUNCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DANCING AROUND EACH
OTHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE RIDGE GETS A SHOVE
EAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE PLAINS
SHORTWAVE.THIS BRINGS BACK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE CONUS...ALBEIT A
BIT ON THE SYNOPTIC WEAK SIDE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STRONGER OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS.
FOR THE FORECAST...GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO HAVEN`T
DEVIATED. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...WITH A LACK OF PRECIP.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT ON)...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE
UPPER ENERGY DANCING AROUND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PLAINS BREAKS
DOWN...WITH PIECES MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
HELPS TO DE-AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PLAINS(ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS). THE ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY REMAINS ONSHORE...BUT STILL SYNOPTICALLY WEAK AS A
SURFACE RIDGE HAS BECOME ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TEMPS
AROUND SEASONAL CONTINUE...WITH PRECIP AGAIN LACKING.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOME OF THE UPPER ENERGY DIGS SOUTH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS....FORMING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS HELPS TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A PIECE
OF ENERGY MOVES OVER THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...FORMING
EITHER A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF(GFS) OR UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NE-ERN GULF OF MEX(ECMWF). THE
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONG OVER THE PLAINS...WEAKENING AS ONE MOVES
EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...THOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE. WITH THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EAST OF THE FA...AND A BUILDING RIDGE...TEMPS CLIMB A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH STARTS TO SWING EAST...PUSHING THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE
EAST...AND THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SE-ERN CONUS OVER THE OPEN GULF OF
MEX IN ALL THE GUIDANCE. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN MAKING IT BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE AND THE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS PLAY A GAME OF
PUSH AND SHOVE. THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED TO OVER THE EAST COAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS GETS
A BIT OF A SHOVE NORTH...RESULTING IN A MORE EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW.
POPS HAVE RETURNED...BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...[12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER 24/15Z. /21
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...THEN INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THIS PATTERN. /21
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FRONT WILL MOVER SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY...
BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER...DEFINITELY DRIER AIR. THE NORTHERLY AIR
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE MIXING
LAYER WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 87 56 85 60 86 / 05 00 00 00 05
PENSACOLA 89 61 85 64 85 / 05 00 00 00 05
DESTIN 85 63 83 66 83 / 00 00 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 85 50 86 52 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 84 51 86 54 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CAMDEN 83 49 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CRESTVIEW 90 50 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
21/16
000
FXUS64 KBMX 240749
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
249 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO A BIT OF MIXING
STILL OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CWA AND STRETCHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS POORLY DEFINED BUT SOME WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY USHERING IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR.
PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS TODAY WITH VALUES
AS LOW AS 0.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WARM
UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THESE FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS AND FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. IF YOU ENJOY THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES PLEASE GET OUT
AND ENJOY THEM BEFORE THE HEAT BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE MCS/QLCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
STAY TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. WE COULD HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS THAT COULD MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST A BIT TRICKY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND
MODERATED TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MEMORIAL
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS
A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENT PATTERN UNDER THE RIDGE.
05/MA
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE THINKING. DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. VFR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
08
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY 25TH.
RECORDSFORECAST
BIRMINGHAM4548
TUSCALOOSA5149
MONTGOMERY5152
ANNISTON4747
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 74 45 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 10 10
ANNISTON 75 48 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 76 49 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 81 50 82 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
CALERA 79 51 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 79 52 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 83 52 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
TROY 83 50 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 240651
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
151 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, AS THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS MOVED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BEGINS TO BREAK. THE MID-UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS FINALLY LIFTED OFF TO
THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PROVIDING STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MT/WY/DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
LOWS IS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC, THE CYCLONE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS PUSHED A CP AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ENSUING INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING A GUSTY N/NE WIND ALONG WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY. IN FACT, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
(OH RIVER VALLEY) AND CIRRUS CANOPY FROM TX CONVECTION WILL RESULT
IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WHILE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX THIS EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY SHOULD MEAN A DROP IN TEMPS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY, THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
SEABOARD RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT, A COUPLE OF PRONOUNCED EDDIES/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST MAY DEVELOP MCS/QLCS FEATURES
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WITH THE
PREVAILING NW STEERING FLOW MAY IMPACT THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAPIDLY MOVING FEATURE (DIFFICULT TO
TIME AT THIS POINT). LINGERING CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER FROM THE MCS ON
SUNDAY MAY HAMPER RAPID WARMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES). THUS,
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS EPISODE (WITH THE SOUTHEAST
IN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT) ON MONDAY, BUT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
TIME. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH THE
EXITING EAST COAST UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE TO A RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE MID TO UPPER EXTRA-TROPICAL
CYCLONES TRANSLATING NORTH ATOP THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO ONTARIO. SO, A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY
ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (WITH THURSDAY LIKELY BEING THE HOTTEST
DAY)ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE, DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
CENTERED ALMOST ATOP THE TN VALLEY, AM HESITANT TO PLACE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD
SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC PULSE-LIKE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
PREVAILING FLOW AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED, BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST YET. OTHERWISE, MADE
TWEAKS TO THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SL.77
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1221 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
SFC COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION. A LOW CLOUD DECK THAT IS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH HAS BEGUN TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER,
HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM 14Z-01Z.
SL.77
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 75 47 80 53 / 0 0 0 20
SHOALS 75 47 81 51 / 0 0 0 10
VINEMONT 73 49 79 50 / 0 0 0 20
FAYETTEVILLE 72 47 77 50 / 0 0 0 20
ALBERTVILLE 74 51 77 50 / 0 0 0 20
FORT PAYNE 74 45 78 47 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 240521 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1221 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 851 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
A SFC COLD FRONT ADVECTING SOUTHWARD, AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND
THE FRONT ADDITIONAL SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD FROM
THE OH RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS OVER THE
NEXT 6-10 HOURS.
HAVE INCORPORATED HIGH END PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE ONCOMING
CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT. TEMPS ARE NOT COOLING OFF AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST DUE TO WINDS STAYING HIGH ENOUGH TO TEMPER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY MAKING
TWEAKS TO GUIDANCE FROM LOCAL WRF MODEL OUTPUT (AND TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT APPROACHING CLOUD COVER FOR LATER TONIGHT). MOST AREAS SHOULD
DROP OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION, MADE TREND AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINTS AND WIND FORECAST WITH MORE OF A
TERRAIN GRADIENT INCORPORATED FOR WIND SPEEDS (I.E. HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN) AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH
CAA FROM A N (LATER TO NE) WIND DIRECTION POST-FROPA. WINDSPEEDS
SHOULD THEN INCREASE AREAWIDE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
SL.77
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
SFC COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION. A LOW CLOUD DECK THAT IS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH HAS BEGUN TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER,
HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM 14Z-01Z.
SL.77
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 240428 AAC
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE THINKING. DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. VFR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL PROVIDE A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM ALL THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE JUST MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVING DOWN FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NOT EXPECTING FOG TONIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
05
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AROUND 15 MPH. A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BRING DOWN A COOL ENOUGH
AIR MASS THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW RECORD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING ARE NOTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES BY SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND KEEPING THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF ALABAMA. THE ECMWF MODEL IS KEEPING A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...AND IT TRIES TO BRING SOME
CONVECTION INTO EXTREME NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST.
58/ROSE
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A BIG WARM-UP NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL CAP ANY CONVECTION AND CAUSE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH DAY.
HELLO SUMMERTIME!
58/ROSE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 55 73 42 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 57 74 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 58 77 48 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 58 80 49 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
CALERA 59 79 49 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 60 78 51 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 63 82 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TROY 60 81 48 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/05/58
000
FXUS64 KMOB 240425 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION (24.06Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A WEAKEN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER MISSISSIPPI
ZONES AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. IT IS
IN THESE AREAS THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...ALTHOUGH
STILL RATHER LIMITED. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON
FRIDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS TONIGHT...AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR
CLIMO...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S COASTAL. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND SOME UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER PORTIONS
(AWAY FROM THE BEACHES) OF THE COASTAL ZONES. 12/DS
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE SOME 7 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
TONIGHT`S MINS. /10
.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY]...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
QUIET WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO
HOLD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIMITED. AXIS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
THUS...UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY NEXT WEEK.
CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND
WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRY PERIOD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH LOWEST
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING OR MOVING BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...NOT EXPECTED TO MEET OTHER CRITERIA SUCH AS REQUIRED ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERC`S)...20 FT WIND SPEED AND KBDI FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. ON FRIDAY...DAILY DISPERSION RATING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ABOVE 75...WHICH WILL BE IN THE GOOD CATEGORY. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 66 87 56 84 59 / 20 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 69 90 62 84 64 / 10 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 69 85 64 83 66 / 10 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 61 85 51 86 53 / 10 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 61 84 51 86 52 / 10 05 00 00 00
CAMDEN 61 82 52 84 54 / 10 00 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 62 89 51 87 54 / 05 00 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 240218
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
918 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL PROVIDE A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM ALL THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE JUST MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVING DOWN FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NOT EXPECTING FOG TONIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.
VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AROUND 15 MPH. A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BRING DOWN A COOL ENOUGH
AIR MASS THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW RECORD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING ARE NOTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES BY SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND KEEPING THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF ALABAMA. THE ECMWF MODEL IS KEEPING A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...AND IT TRIES TO BRING SOME
CONVECTION INTO EXTREME NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST.
58/ROSE
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A BIG WARM-UP NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL CAP ANY CONVECTION AND CAUSE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH DAY.
HELLO SUMMERTIME!
58/ROSE
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 240151 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
851 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
MADE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SFC COLD FRONT ADVECTING SOUTHWARD, AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND
THE FRONT ADDITIONAL SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD FROM
THE OH RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS OVER THE
NEXT 6-10 HOURS.
HAVE INCORPORATED HIGH END PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE ONCOMING
CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT. TEMPS ARE NOT COOLING OFF AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST DUE TO WINDS STAYING HIGH ENOUGH TO TEMPER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY MAKING
TWEAKS TO GUIDANCE FROM LOCAL WRF MODEL OUTPUT (AND TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT APPROACHING CLOUD COVER FOR LATER TONIGHT). MOST AREAS SHOULD
DROP OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION, MADE TREND AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINTS AND WIND FORECAST WITH MORE OF A
TERRAIN GRADIENT INCORPORATED FOR WIND SPEEDS (I.E. HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN) AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH
CAA FROM A N (LATER TO NE) WIND DIRECTION POST-FROPA. WINDSPEEDS
SHOULD THEN INCREASE AREAWIDE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
SL.77
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 621 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 6-7 HOURS WHEN A SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. LOW STRATUS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND MAY RESULT IN CIGS DROPPING TO `ADDL
FUEL REQ` CONDITIONS BTWN 07-11Z, AND WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 14Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTS SOUTHWARD.
SL.77
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 232339 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.
VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AROUND 15 MPH. A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BRING DOWN A COOL ENOUGH
AIR MASS THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW RECORD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING ARE NOTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES BY SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND KEEPING THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF ALABAMA. THE ECMWF MODEL IS KEEPING A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...AND IT TRIES TO BRING SOME
CONVECTION INTO EXTREME NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST.
58/ROSE
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A BIG WARM-UP NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL CAP ANY CONVECTION AND CAUSE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH DAY.
HELLO SUMMERTIME!
58/ROSE
CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY 25TH.
RECORDSFORECAST
BIRMINGHAM4548
TUSCALOOSA5149
MONTGOMERY5152
ANNISTON4747
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 55 73 42 78 46 / 10 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 57 74 47 77 49 / 10 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 58 77 48 81 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 58 80 49 82 52 / 10 0 0 0 0
CALERA 59 79 49 81 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 60 78 51 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 63 82 52 83 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
TROY 60 81 48 81 49 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/58
000
FXUS64 KMOB 232328 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
625 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION (24.00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A WEAKEN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER MISSISSIPPI
ZONES AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. IT IS
IN THESE AREAS THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...ALTHOUGH
STILL RATHER LIMITED. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON
FRIDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS TONIGHT...AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR
CLIMO...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S COASTAL. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND SOME UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER PORTIONS
(AWAY FROM THE BEACHES) OF THE COASTAL ZONES. 12/DS
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE SOME 7 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
TONIGHT`S MINS. /10
.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY]...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
QUIET WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO
HOLD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIMITED. AXIS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
THUS...UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY NEXT WEEK.
CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND
WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRY PERIOD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH LOWEST
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING OR MOVING BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...NOT EXPECTED TO MEET OTHER CRITERIA SUCH AS REQUIRED ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERC`S)...20 FT WIND SPEED AND KBDI FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. ON FRIDAY...DAILY DISPERSION RATING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ABOVE 75...WHICH WILL BE IN THE GOOD CATEGORY. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 66 87 56 84 59 / 20 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 69 90 62 84 64 / 10 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 69 85 64 83 66 / 10 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 61 85 51 86 53 / 10 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 61 84 51 86 52 / 10 05 00 00 00
CAMDEN 61 82 52 84 54 / 10 00 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 62 89 51 87 54 / 05 00 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 232321 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
621 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA BLOCK
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER LOWS IN PLACE
OVER THE EAST/WEST COASTS, AND RIDGING ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WAS
IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA AS OF THIS WRITING, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, AND DEWPOINTS
FALLING IN ITS WAKE.
AS A RESULT, FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN TN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA, BUT SILENT POPS WERE
TAPERED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS AS A RESULT.
THE BIGGER STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED FRONT. MORNING LOWS
TOMORROW WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR (NORMALLY IN THE LOWER 60S). HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL
FOLLOW SUIT, ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED IN
SRN MIDDLE TN. NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE MAY ARE IN THE LOWER 80S, SO BE
SURE TO ENJOY THE SLIGHTLY `COOLER` HIGHS OF ~70-75F WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY, BECAUSE THAT WILL DEFINITELY CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER THE COOLEST START TO THE FORECAST WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING, THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE 90-DEGREE MARK AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
IT IS AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER, THAT GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS IS
BY FAR DRIER THAN THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED, KEEPING ANY MCS
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TO THE NW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA (OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY). THE ECMWF, HOWEVER, IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE, SLIGHTLY SHIFTING IT WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WOULD SET UP NW FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY, DIRECTING ANY MCS
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD THE CWA. AS A RESULT, WILL LEAVE THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT THESE CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. MODELS GENERALLY
DON`T PERFORM WELL IN NW FLOW (ESPECIALLY OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
TIME OF YEAR), AND AS WE NEAR THE MONTH OF JUNE, THIS PATTERN IS
GENERALLY MORE FAVORED THAN THE OUTPUT OF THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS.
FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS
POINT, BUT EITHER WAY, THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE WARM AND DRY LATE IN
THE PERIOD, WITH HUMIDITY INCREASING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 6-7 HOURS WHEN A SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. LOW STRATUS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND MAY RESULT IN CIGS DROPPING TO `ADDL
FUEL REQ` CONDITIONS BTWN 07-11Z, AND WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 14Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTS SOUTHWARD.
SL.77
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KMOB 232047
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A WEAKEN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER MISSISSIPPI
ZONES AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. IT IS
IN THESE AREAS THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...ALTHOUGH
STILL RATHER LIMITED. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON
FRIDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS TONIGHT...AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR
CLIMO...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S COASTAL. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND SOME UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER PORTIONS
(AWAY FROM THE BEACHES) OF THE COASTAL ZONES. 12/DS
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE SOME 7 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
TONIGHT`S MINS. /10
.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY]...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
QUIET WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO
HOLD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIMITED. AXIS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
THUS...UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY NEXT WEEK.
CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT VERY WIDELY SCATTERED
AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN TERMINALS. FOG SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED TONIGHT
DUE TO DRY AIRMASS...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO SFC VSBY
EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 12/DS
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND
WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRY PERIOD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH LOWEST
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING OR MOVING BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...NOT EXPECTED TO MEET OTHER CRITERIA SUCH AS REQUIRED ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERC`S)...20 FT WIND SPEED AND KBDI FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. ON FRIDAY...DAILY DISPERSION RATING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ABOVE 75...WHICH WILL BE IN THE GOOD CATEGORY. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 66 87 56 84 59 / 20 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 69 90 62 84 64 / 10 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 69 85 64 83 66 / 10 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 61 85 51 86 53 / 10 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 61 84 51 86 52 / 10 05 00 00 00
CAMDEN 61 82 52 84 54 / 10 00 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 62 89 51 87 54 / 05 00 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 232014
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AROUND 15 MPH. A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BRING DOWN A COOL ENOUGH
AIR MASS THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW RECORD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING ARE NOTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES BY SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND KEEPING THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF ALABAMA. THE ECMWF MODEL IS KEEPING A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...AND IT TRIES TO BRING SOME
CONVECTION INTO EXTREME NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST.
58/ROSE
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A BIG WARM-UP NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL CAP ANY CONVECTION AND CAUSE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH DAY.
HELLO SUMMERTIME!
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WITH DRIER WEATHER MOVING INTO THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
FOR TOMORROW AS A DRY FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
88
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY 25TH.
RECORDSFORECAST
BIRMINGHAM4548
TUSCALOOSA5149
MONTGOMERY5152
ANNISTON4747
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 55 73 42 78 46 / 10 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 57 74 47 77 49 / 10 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 58 77 48 81 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 58 80 49 82 52 / 10 0 0 0 0
CALERA 59 79 49 81 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 60 78 51 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 63 82 52 83 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
TROY 60 81 48 81 49 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 231925
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA BLOCK
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER LOWS IN PLACE
OVER THE EAST/WEST COASTS, AND RIDGING ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WAS
IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA AS OF THIS WRITING, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, AND DEWPOINTS
FALLING IN ITS WAKE.
AS A RESULT, FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN TN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA, BUT SILENT POPS WERE
TAPERED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS AS A RESULT.
THE BIGGER STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED FRONT. MORNING LOWS
TOMORROW WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR (NORMALLY IN THE LOWER 60S). HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL
FOLLOW SUIT, ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED IN
SRN MIDDLE TN. NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE MAY ARE IN THE LOWER 80S, SO BE
SURE TO ENJOY THE SLIGHTLY `COOLER` HIGHS OF ~70-75F WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY, BECAUSE THAT WILL DEFINITELY CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER THE COOLEST START TO THE FORECAST WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING, THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE 90-DEGREE MARK AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
IT IS AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER, THAT GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS IS
BY FAR DRIER THAN THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED, KEEPING ANY MCS
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TO THE NW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA (OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY). THE ECMWF, HOWEVER, IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE, SLIGHTLY SHIFTING IT WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WOULD SET UP NW FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY, DIRECTING ANY MCS
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD THE CWA. AS A RESULT, WILL LEAVE THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT THESE CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. MODELS GENERALLY
DON`T PERFORM WELL IN NW FLOW (ESPECIALLY OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
TIME OF YEAR), AND AS WE NEAR THE MONTH OF JUNE, THIS PATTERN IS
GENERALLY MORE FAVORED THAN THE OUTPUT OF THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS.
FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS
POINT, BUT EITHER WAY, THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE WARM AND DRY LATE IN
THE PERIOD, WITH HUMIDITY INCREASING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 107 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA...WITH WNW FLOW 10G18 KNOTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
REMAINDER OF AFTN ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH-BASED CU. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND VEER TO NNW EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH AN INCREASE IN
STRATOCU ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT DUE TO
ARRIVE AT BOTH HSV/MSL BTWN 24/05-07Z. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PRESSES SWD...WITH BKN/OVC MVFR STRATUS
BUILDING INTO REGION FOLLOWING FROPA. LOWER CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT AND
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY BTWN 13-14Z...WITH SKC CONDS AND A NNE WIND
OF 12G20 KNOTS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
70/DD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 55 72 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
SHOALS 55 73 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
VINEMONT 53 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
FAYETTEVILLE 53 70 43 76 / 10 0 0 0
ALBERTVILLE 54 73 46 76 / 10 0 0 0
FORT PAYNE 53 72 43 77 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 231807
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
107 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1101 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM GRIDS ARE IN GOOD CONDITION THIS MORNING WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION DATA INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER
PERCENTAGES WERE INCREASED TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING PERIOD...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE RETAINED FOR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTHEAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...AS
UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS THIS REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA...WITH WNW FLOW 10G18 KNOTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
REMAINDER OF AFTN ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH-BASED CU. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND VEER TO NNW EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH AN INCREASE IN
STRATOCU ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT DUE TO
ARRIVE AT BOTH HSV/MSL BTWN 24/05-07Z. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PRESSES SWD...WITH BKN/OVC MVFR STRATUS
BUILDING INTO REGION FOLLOWING FROPA. LOWER CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT AND
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY BTWN 13-14Z...WITH SKC CONDS AND A NNE WIND
OF 12G20 KNOTS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
70/DD
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 231800
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROD ROTATING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL HELP
PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. BASED ON THE DEVELOPING
CUMULUS FIELD AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS...A DRY-LINE BOUNDARY EXTENDS JUST
NORTH OF I-59 CORRIDOR. MORNING KBMX UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
NORTHWEST FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL HELP USHER IN A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. DESPITE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS AFTERNOON...THE AIR MASS IS TOO
DRY ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BASE OF THE
OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROF ROTATES ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE.
AT LEAST THE WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE BEARABLE DUE TO LOWER HUMIDITIES AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 10
TO 15 MPH.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WITH DRIER WEATHER MOVING INTO THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
FOR TOMORROW AS A DRY FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
88
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 231601
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1101 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM GRIDS ARE IN GOOD CONDITION THIS MORNING WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION DATA INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER
PERCENTAGES WERE INCREASED TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING PERIOD...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE RETAINED FOR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTHEAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...AS
UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS THIS REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...SHALLOW AND VARIABLE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH 14-1430Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SWINGS IN
VISIBILITY FROM AROUND ONE MILE OR LESS TO ABOVE 6SM. AFTER
14Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WNW AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND
18KT. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND SHIFT WINDS TO BE MORE
NORTHERLY BY THIS EVENING...BUT CHCS FOR RA/TSRA SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NE OF THE TERMINALS. LOW CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CCC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN PER UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS. A BLOCKING PATTERN WAS SETTING
UP...WITH ITS UPPER LOWS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE TEXAS COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW
WERE ROTATING AROUND IT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. OTHER CLOUDS WERE ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THOSE CLOUDS WERE A BIT DIFFICULT TO VIEW...DUE
TO A GOES-EAST SATELLITE OUTAGE. WHILE TECH SUPPORT HOPEFULLY WILL
RESTORE IT TO OPERATIONAL STATUS...GOES-14 IS BEING TAKEN OUT OF
STORAGE AND SHOULD BEGIN IMAGE/SOUNDING SCANS SOON.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON WED HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF HERE...NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
KHTX PRECIP DETECTION RING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND STILL HIGH MOISTURE VALUES HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY
FOG TO BEGIN FORMING OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS THUS FAR HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SSW FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO FAR NW
TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...
REACHING NW ALABAMA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE LOCATED SE OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...NO
WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE IS FORECAST TODAY. HOWEVER OVER ITS NORTHERN
EXTENT (CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPWARD FORCING)...SOME SHOWERS/T-STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA (EAST OF HUNTSVILLE)
AND OUR MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO END THIS
WORKWEEK. AFTER HIGHS NEARING 90 THE OTHER DAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONLY WARM INTO LOW/MID 70S...AND MID/UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.
LOWS TEMPS SAT MORNING WILL COOL INTO THE MID 40S...AND BE IN THE
LOWER 50S SUN MORNING. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL
RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY...AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MEMORIAL DAY TO THE MID WEEK.
FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
23/0000Z GFS STAYED ON A DRY PATH...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS HINTING AT
SHOWERS. WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A DECENT TRACK RECORD FURTHER OUT...
HAVE KEPT LOWER END POPS IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND ON TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING A FEED OF MOISTURE ROUNDING HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF VA/NC...WHILE THE GFS KEPT THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE GULF.
RSB
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KMOB 231551
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE WORDING FOR PATCHY FOG...OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 88 65 88 58 85 / 00 20 05 00 00
PENSACOLA 88 69 87 63 85 / 00 10 05 00 00
DESTIN 83 70 86 66 82 / 00 10 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 91 61 86 52 85 / 05 10 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 90 62 85 51 86 / 05 10 05 00 00
CAMDEN 90 61 83 51 84 / 05 10 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 91 61 89 52 87 / 00 05 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
000
FXUS64 KMOB 231550
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE WORDING FOR PATCHY FOG...OTHERWISE
NO CHAGES. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 88 65 88 58 85 / 00 20 05 00 00
PENSACOLA 88 69 87 63 85 / 00 10 05 00 00
DESTIN 83 70 86 66 82 / 00 10 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 91 61 86 52 85 / 05 10 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 90 62 85 51 86 / 05 10 05 00 00
CAMDEN 90 61 83 51 84 / 05 10 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 91 61 89 52 87 / 00 05 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
000
FXUS64 KBMX 231519
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1019 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROD ROTATING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL HELP
PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. BASED ON THE DEVELOPING
CUMULUS FIELD AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS...A DRY-LINE BOUNDARY EXTENDS JUST
NORTH OF I-59 CORRIDOR. MORNING KBMX UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
NORTHWEST FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL HELP USHER IN A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. DESPITE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS AFTERNOON...THE AIR MASS IS TOO
DRY ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BASE OF THE
OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROF ROTATES ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE.
AT LEAST THE WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE BEARABLE DUE TO LOWER HUMIDITIES AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 10
TO 15 MPH.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FINALLY SET IN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING...WITH THE WORST IMPACTS
ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 13Z AND
SHOULD IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW TODAY AT AROUND 10 KTS WIT A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR LIGHT NW WINDS OVERNIGHT.
19
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING....AS A SURFACE TROUGH BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST INTO
GEORGIA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ABLE TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE. THE FRONT THAT SLOWLY MOVED INTO OUR AREA YESTERDAY HAS
PRETTY MUCH WASHED OUT...WITH NO WIND SHIFT OR ADVECTION OF DRIER
DEWPOINTS EVIDENT AT ANY OBSERVATION LOCATION IN THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER 60S OBSERVED THERE AS OPPOSED TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VAD WIND
PROFILES OFF KBMX ARE PRESENTING A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING AT AROUND 3K
FEET. THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME STRATUS...AND WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR PATCHY RADIATION FOG HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO DEVELOP. WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAYING AROUND 15-20 KTS WE AREN`T EXPECTING
ANY PARTICULARLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME...BUT WE`LL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND KEEP ONLY MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE FOR NOW...AND MENTION
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES IN THE HWO FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING.
FOR THE FORECAST TODAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE
WITH A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
GREATLY LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. I`VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT IN TERMS OF
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S AREAWIDE. THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY FROM MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS...AND WILL SEND A PUNCH OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN OUR
DIRECTION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE THIS EVENING WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED FOR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND THE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MOST LIFT WILL BE PRESENT...BUT THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE FOR OUR AREA. THE MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NOTICEABLE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN MODELS
ARE INDICATING DUE TO GOOD INSOLATION WITH THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE QUITE CHILLY FOR SOME SPOTS ON
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS PERHAPS REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY MODIFY ON SATURDAY
WITH GORGEOUS WEATHER CONTINUING AND LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WAS
MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
YESTERDAY...WITH A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN POSSIBLY TAKING SHAPE IN
THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THAT BEING SAID...THE LONG RANGE
SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW STRONG TO
DEVELOP THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE LONE SOLUTION THAT TRIES TO BREAK DOWN
THE UPPER RIDGE FASTER AND ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SEND
SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IN OUR DIRECTION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE OTHER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE AND KEEP THE DISTURBANCES WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH. FOR
NOW...I HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY POPS AS WE ARE STILL WAY TOO
FAR OUT TO DETERMINE WHAT WILL OCCUR IN THE MESOSCALE. WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINING THE UPPER RIDGE...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90
DEGREES FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
56/GDG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 84 56 74 44 80 / 10 10 0 0 0
ANNISTON 84 58 76 47 80 / 10 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 85 60 77 50 82 / 10 10 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 88 61 80 49 83 / 10 10 0 0 0
CALERA 85 60 81 51 81 / 10 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 86 60 78 53 81 / 10 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 89 63 84 52 85 / 10 10 0 0 0
TROY 88 61 83 50 83 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 231142 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN PER UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS. A BLOCKING PATTERN WAS SETTING
UP...WITH ITS UPPER LOWS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE TEXAS COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW
WERE ROTATING AROUND IT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. OTHER CLOUDS WERE ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THOSE CLOUDS WERE A BIT DIFFICULT TO VIEW...DUE
TO A GOES-EAST SATELLITE OUTAGE. WHILE TECH SUPPORT HOPEFULLY WILL
RESTORE IT TO OPERATIONAL STATUS...GOES-14 IS BEING TAKEN OUT OF
STORAGE AND SHOULD BEGIN IMAGE/SOUNDING SCANS SOON.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON WED HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF HERE...NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
KHTX PRECIP DETECTION RING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND STILL HIGH MOISTURE VALUES HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY
FOG TO BEGIN FORMING OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS THUS FAR HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SSW FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO FAR NW
TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...
REACHING NW ALABAMA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE LOCATED SE OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...NO
WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE IS FORECAST TODAY. HOWEVER OVER ITS NORTHERN
EXTENT (CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPWARD FORCING)...SOME SHOWERS/T-STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA (EAST OF HUNTSVILLE)
AND OUR MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO END THIS
WORKWEEK. AFTER HIGHS NEARING 90 THE OTHER DAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONLY WARM INTO LOW/MID 70S...AND MID/UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.
LOWS TEMPS SAT MORNING WILL COOL INTO THE MID 40S...AND BE IN THE
LOWER 50S SUN MORNING. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL
RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY...AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MEMORIAL DAY TO THE MID WEEK.
FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
23/0000Z GFS STAYED ON A DRY PATH...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS HINTING AT
SHOWERS. WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A DECENT TRACK RECORD FURTHER OUT...
HAVE KEPT LOWER END POPS IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND ON TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING A FEED OF MOISTURE ROUNDING HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF VA/NC...WHILE THE GFS KEPT THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE GULF.
RSB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...SHALLOW AND VARIABLE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH 14-1430Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SWINGS IN
VISIBILITY FROM AROUND ONE MILE OR LESS TO ABOVE 6SM. AFTER
14Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WNW AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND
18KT. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND SHIFT WINDS TO BE MORE
NORTHERLY BY THIS EVENING...BUT CHCS FOR RA/TSRA SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NE OF THE TERMINALS. LOW CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CCC
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 231132
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING....AS A SURFACE TROUGH BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST INTO
GEORGIA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ABLE TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE. THE FRONT THAT SLOWLY MOVED INTO OUR AREA YESTERDAY HAS
PRETTY MUCH WASHED OUT...WITH NO WIND SHIFT OR ADVECTION OF DRIER
DEWPOINTS EVIDENT AT ANY OBSERVATION LOCATION IN THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER 60S OBSERVED THERE AS OPPOSED TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VAD WIND
PROFILES OFF KBMX ARE PRESENTING A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING AT AROUND 3K
FEET. THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME STRATUS...AND WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR PATCHY RADIATION FOG HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO DEVELOP. WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAYING AROUND 15-20 KTS WE AREN`T EXPECTING
ANY PARTICULARLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME...BUT WE`LL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND KEEP ONLY MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE FOR NOW...AND MENTION
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES IN THE HWO FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING.
FOR THE FORECAST TODAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE
WITH A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
GREATLY LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. I`VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT IN TERMS OF
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S AREAWIDE. THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY FROM MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS...AND WILL SEND A PUNCH OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN OUR
DIRECTION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE THIS EVENING WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED FOR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND THE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MOST LIFT WILL BE PRESENT...BUT THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE FOR OUR AREA. THE MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NOTICEABLE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN MODELS
ARE INDICATING DUE TO GOOD INSOLATION WITH THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE QUITE CHILLY FOR SOME SPOTS ON
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS PERHAPS REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY MODIFY ON SATURDAY
WITH GORGEOUS WEATHER CONTINUING AND LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WAS
MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
YESTERDAY...WITH A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN POSSIBLY TAKING SHAPE IN
THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THAT BEING SAID...THE LONG RANGE
SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW STRONG TO
DEVELOP THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE LONE SOLUTION THAT TRIES TO BREAK DOWN
THE UPPER RIDGE FASTER AND ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SEND
SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IN OUR DIRECTION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE OTHER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE AND KEEP THE DISTURBANCES WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH. FOR
NOW...I HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY POPS AS WE ARE STILL WAY TOO
FAR OUT TO DETERMINE WHAT WILL OCCUR IN THE MESOSCALE. WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINING THE UPPER RIDGE...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90
DEGREES FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
56/GDG
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FINALLY SET IN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING...WITH THE WORST IMPACTS
ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 13Z AND
SHOULD IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW TODAY AT AROUND 10 KTS WIT A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR LIGHT NW WINDS OVERNIGHT.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 84 56 74 44 80 / 10 10 0 0 0
ANNISTON 84 58 76 47 80 / 10 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 85 60 77 50 82 / 10 10 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 88 61 80 49 83 / 10 10 0 0 0
CALERA 85 60 81 51 81 / 10 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 86 60 78 53 81 / 20 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 89 63 84 52 85 / 20 10 0 0 0
TROY 88 61 83 50 83 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...
ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARENGO...
MARION...PERRY...PICKENS...RANDOLPH...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 230944
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
444 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING....AS A SURFACE TROUGH BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST INTO
GEORGIA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ABLE TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE. THE FRONT THAT SLOWLY MOVED INTO OUR AREA YESTERDAY HAS
PRETTY MUCH WASHED OUT...WITH NO WIND SHIFT OR ADVECTION OF DRIER
DEWPOINTS EVIDENT AT ANY OBSERVATION LOCATION IN THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER 60S OBSERVED THERE AS OPPOSED TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VAD WIND
PROFILES OFF KBMX ARE PRESENTING A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING AT AROUND 3K
FEET. THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME STRATUS...AND WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR PATCHY RADIATION FOG HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO DEVELOP. WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAYING AROUND 15-20 KTS WE AREN`T EXPECTING
ANY PARTICULARLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME...BUT WE`LL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND KEEP ONLY MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE FOR NOW...AND MENTION
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES IN THE HWO FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING.
FOR THE FORECAST TODAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE
WITH A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
GREATLY LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. I`VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT IN TERMS OF
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S AREAWIDE. THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY FROM MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS...AND WILL SEND A PUNCH OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN OUR
DIRECTION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE THIS EVENING WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED FOR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND THE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MOST LIFT WILL BE PRESENT...BUT THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE FOR OUR AREA. THE MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NOTICEABLE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN MODELS
ARE INDICATING DUE TO GOOD INSOLATION WITH THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE QUITE CHILLY FOR SOME SPOTS ON
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS PERHAPS REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY MODIFY ON SATURDAY
WITH GORGEOUS WEATHER CONTINUING AND LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WAS
MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
YESTERDAY...WITH A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN POSSIBLY TAKING SHAPE IN
THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THAT BEING SAID...THE LONG RANGE
SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW STRONG TO
DEVELOP THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE LONE SOLUTION THAT TRIES TO BREAK DOWN
THE UPPER RIDGE FASTER AND ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SEND
SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IN OUR DIRECTION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE OTHER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE AND KEEP THE DISTURBANCES WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH. FOR
NOW...I HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY POPS AS WE ARE STILL WAY TOO
FAR OUT TO DETERMINE WHAT WILL OCCUR IN THE MESOSCALE. WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINING THE UPPER RIDGE...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90
DEGREES FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
56/GDG
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT THIS SHOULD
CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER SHOULD PROVIDE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A MORE
PRONOUNCED INVERSION AT THE SURFACE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 15 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT FOG WILL BE SHALLOW. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY WILL BEGIN TO DROP AROUND 08Z WITH CONDITIONS
GREATLY IMPROVING AROUND 13Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AFTER 17Z TODAY.
05/MA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 84 56 74 44 80 / 10 10 0 0 0
ANNISTON 84 58 76 47 80 / 10 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 85 60 77 50 82 / 10 10 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 88 61 80 49 83 / 10 10 0 0 0
CALERA 85 60 81 51 81 / 10 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 86 60 78 53 81 / 20 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 89 63 84 52 85 / 20 10 0 0 0
TROY 88 61 83 50 83 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
56/05
000
FXUS64 KMOB 230940
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AXIS OF MAIN UPPER TROF THAT
BROUGHT CONVECTION TO THE REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW EAST OF THE CWFA
RESULTING IN A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROF SHIFTS FURTHER EAST TODAY A SHARP MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER RIDGE A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DIVES SOUTH FROM CANADA EVENTUALLY BRINGING COOLER
DRIER AIR THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY FRI CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
A MODERATE SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND
IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. AS RESULT WITH MORE SUN THEN CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND A GOOD AFTERNOON SEABREEZE FROM THE SW
CONDITIONS WILL FEEL RATHER PLEASANT. FOR TONIGHT COOLER DRIER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTHWARD WITH MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST. STILL COULD
SEE SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND AREAS TO THE WEST. 32/EE
THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS LOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS OUR AREA
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES FRIDAY...AND A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE GULF
COAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CWFA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MOSTLY WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIRMASS
WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIRMASS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING. WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...AND IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60 NEAR THE COAST. /21
.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION THIS UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A DEEP
LAYER DRY AIRMASS LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD
COVER...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN
ORIENTED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUED WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED...SLOWLY TRENDING UPWARD A FEW DEGREES BY SUNDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOWS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
STAYING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL FLATTEN MONDAY...WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHINESS WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWFA MEMORIAL DAY...
SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND...TO THE MID 80S NEAR THE BEACHES.
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS THEN SHOW AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTHENING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR THE GULF COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK VERY MINIMAL UNDERNEATH THIS PATTERN...SO WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. /21
&&
.AVIATION...[12Z ISSUANCE]...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STILL
EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME
SCT LOW CLOUDS MIXED WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
POSSIBLY LEADING TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE
COAST LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY FRI MORNING. 32/EE
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME
REINFORCED LATE FRI THROUGH SAT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A
MODERATE SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN SHIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY BUILD TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE
FRI AND THROUGH SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE. A MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEKEND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ALSO COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. 32/EE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS TODAY THOUGH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HIGHER DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 6000-7000 FT
AGL. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
TO FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES
FRIDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE MARGINALITY OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER OUR ALABAMA
COUNTIES...AND THAT HIGHER KBDI VALUES AND WIND SPEEDS MAY STAY JUST
EAST OF OUR AREA...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY ATTM. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE. /21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 88 65 88 58 85 / 00 20 05 00 00
PENSACOLA 88 69 87 63 85 / 00 10 05 00 00
DESTIN 83 70 86 66 82 / 00 10 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 91 61 86 52 85 / 05 10 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 90 62 85 51 86 / 05 10 05 00 00
CAMDEN 90 61 83 51 84 / 05 10 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 91 61 89 52 87 / 00 05 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
000
FXUS64 KHUN 230859
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
359 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN PER UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS. A BLOCKING PATTERN WAS SETTING
UP...WITH ITS UPPER LOWS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE TEXAS COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW
WERE ROTATING AROUND IT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. OTHER CLOUDS WERE ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THOSE CLOUDS WERE A BIT DIFFICULT TO VIEW...DUE
TO A GOES-EAST SATELLITE OUTAGE. WHILE TECH SUPPORT HOPEFULLY WILL
RESTORE IT TO OPERATIONAL STATUS...GOES-14 IS BEING TAKEN OUT OF
STORAGE AND SHOULD BEGIN IMAGE/SOUNDING SCANS SOON.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON WED HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF HERE...NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
KHTX PRECIP DETECTION RING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND STILL HIGH MOISTURE VALUES HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY
FOG TO BEGIN FORMING OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS THUS FAR HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SSW FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO FAR NW
TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...
REACHING NW ALABAMA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE LOCATED SE OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...NO
WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE IS FORECAST TODAY. HOWEVER OVER ITS NORTHERN
EXTENT (CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPWARD FORCING)...SOME SHOWERS/T-STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA (EAST OF HUNTSVILLE)
AND OUR MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO END THIS
WORKWEEK. AFTER HIGHS NEARING 90 THE OTHER DAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONLY WARM INTO LOW/MID 70S...AND MID/UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.
LOWS TEMPS SAT MORNING WILL COOL INTO THE MID 40S...AND BE IN THE
LOWER 50S SUN MORNING. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL
RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY...AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MEMORIAL DAY TO THE MID WEEK.
FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
23/0000Z GFS STAYED ON A DRY PATH...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS HINTING AT
SHOWERS. WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A DECENT TRACK RECORD FURTHER OUT...
HAVE KEPT LOWER END POPS IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND ON TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING A FEED OF MOISTURE ROUNDING HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF VA/NC...WHILE THE GFS KEPT THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE GULF.
RSB
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE FOG
FORMATION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR/ADDL FUEL
REQUIRED BTWN 08-12Z. THEN, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED (13G20KTS) AS A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.
SL.77
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 83 55 76 47 / 10 10 0 0
SHOALS 82 55 75 47 / 10 10 0 0
VINEMONT 80 53 75 46 / 10 10 0 0
FAYETTEVILLE 80 53 71 43 / 20 10 0 0
ALBERTVILLE 80 54 73 46 / 10 10 0 0
FORT PAYNE 82 53 74 43 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 230534 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1234 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 941 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
A FAIRLY COMPLEX SET OF BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COUPLE OF
SLOW MOVING FRONTS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST FOR TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS JACKSON AND FRANKLIN
(TN) COUNTIES. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS HAS A TONGUE OF MOISTURE (>65F
DEWPOINTS) OVER S/CENTRAL MS EDGING INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH ALABAMA. THIS MOISTURE TONGUE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST
WITH THE APPROACH OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH (BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR) OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER AND ANOTHER FRONT TO THE NW OVER E MO/S
IL/IN/NW AR. THUS, HAVE ONLY RETAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER FAR NE AL AND FRANKLIN COUNTY TN.
CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED ALMOST COMPLETELY ACROSS NW AL WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING FURTHER EAST OVER NE AL/S MIDDLE TN, AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
SKY COVER FORECAST. DUE TO THE CLEARING AND DECREASING WINDS,
STILL EXPECTING PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ADDITION, DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN TRAILING OFF SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST AND MADE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS AS WELL.
SL.77
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE FOG
FORMATION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR/ADDL FUEL
REQUIRED BTWN 08-12Z. THEN, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED (13G20KTS) AS A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.
SL.77
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KMOB 230500 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1159 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS BEGIN THE
TAF PERIOD THEN HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG
BEGINNING AT 09Z. ALTHOUGH CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WRF CORES AND RAP HRRR/NAM VISIBILITIES
SUPPORT A TEMPO GROUP FROM 09-13Z FOR LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITION RETURN BY 14Z AND CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. /29
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROF
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK WITH THESE
FEATURES AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN ZONES THIS EVENING WHERE
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION ARE PRESENT.
MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY. QPF VALUES GENERALLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO OR A LITTLE
ABOVE CLIMO...LOWER/MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S LOWER 70S COASTAL.
DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY ABOVE CLIMO MOST LOCATIONS...UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. 12/DS
AXIS OF MID LEVEL TROF TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. OUT OF RESPECT FOR HARD TO RESOLVE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES IN THE EVOLVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY SURFACE FOCUS
FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES...COULD SEE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COMING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. GIVEN THE WEAKENED OR
WEAKENING STATE OF FRONT...LAYER LIFT ALSO LOOKS WEAK SO WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF STORMS MOSTLY 10%. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS. /10
LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST REGION. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN LOWS INTO THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES. LITTLE
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO EXPAND AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH DAILY HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWS MODERATING WELL INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. 10/21
MARINE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND MOVING INTO THE MARINE AREA WHILE
DISSIPATING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. 12/DS
FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES => NUMERICAL RATINGS AT OR ABOVE 75 FOR MANY AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 67 90 66 88 57 / 20 00 10 05 00
PENSACOLA 70 88 70 88 61 / 20 00 10 05 00
DESTIN 72 81 71 86 64 / 20 00 05 05 00
EVERGREEN 64 93 63 86 53 / 20 05 10 05 00
WAYNESBORO 64 93 62 85 52 / 10 05 10 05 00
CAMDEN 64 92 62 83 52 / 20 05 10 05 00
CRESTVIEW 63 94 64 89 53 / 20 00 05 05 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 230451
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS TAPERED DOWN FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING MORE STABLE AIR IN BEHIND IT. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN FOR TONIGHT SO LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY. AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL SEE PATCHY FOG CHANCES RETURN WITH STILL A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND THE SHOWERS. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ALREADY
OUT.
08/MK
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT THIS SHOULD
CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER SHOULD PROVIDE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A MORE
PRONOUNCED INVERSION AT THE SURFACE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 15 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT FOG WILL BE SHALLOW. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY WILL BEGIN TO DROP AROUND 08Z WITH CONDITIONS
GREATLY IMPROVING AROUND 13Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AFTER 17Z TODAY.
05/MA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
TODAY`S FORECAST IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE LETTERS MCS... AS IN
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS CAN REALLY MESS WITH A FORECAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SINCE WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS LEFTOVER FROM THE NOW DEFUNCT OVERNIGHT MCS IN MISSISSIPPI
HAVE SLOWED THE RATE OF HEATING TODAY. AS OF 3 PM CDT... MANY
LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW REACHING THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...
AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE IN OUR NORTHEASTERN AREA AROUND
ANNISTON AND GADSDEN. BACK IN MISSISSIPPI PRECIP IS STRUGGLING TO
GET GOING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THOSE LEFTOVER
CLOUDS MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
SBCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...
STILL THINK SOME SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR FOR A MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE GLANCES THE REGION TO THE
NORTH. LOOKING AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...
THE WIND SHEAR NEEDED TO ORGANIZE STORMS IS TOO WEAK... 30 KT OR
LESS. SO WHILE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM MISSISSIPPI... THINK THAT STORMS FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
I-20/59 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING... AND
HAVE ONLY KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE 10 AM.
OTHERWISE EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE RAIN FREE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
FRIDAY A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL BRING
OUR HIGHS DOWN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ALSO... MORNING LOWS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR... UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW/MID 50S SOUTH. BEHIND
THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. BASED OFF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN AND THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR FRIDAY... NOT EXPECTING PRECIP FOR
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR EAST...
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE PLACED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH ABOUT NEXT TUESDAY. UNDER THIS SETUP AND GIVEN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE... WE OFTEN GET MCS FEATURES MOVING FROM ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. THE
12Z ECMWF IS HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT DOES KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
EITHER TO THE NORTH OR WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA... BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. OF COURSE... THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY
FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN PLACE AND THE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF ALABAMA. IN KEEPING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE... HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO AGREE ON A
SPECIFIC DAY (OR DAYS) FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT... THEN POPS
MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED. BUT MCS FORMATION IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
USUALLY VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE GLOBAL SCALE MODELS TO PICK UP
ON... ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. SO ITS BASICALLY WAIT AND SEE.
REGARDLESS.... WEEKEND TEMPS LOOK VERY NICE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
77/GLEASON
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 230302 AAB
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1002 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS TAPERED DOWN FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING MORE STABLE AIR IN BEHIND IT. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN FOR TONIGHT SO LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY. AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL SEE PATCHY FOG CHANCES RETURN WITH STILL A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND THE SHOWERS. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ALREADY
OUT.
08/MK
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO COULD
CONTINUE AT KANB OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SHOWERS ARE TOO
SCATTERED TO ADD ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RATHER DRY AIR PUNCHING INTO WESTERN
ALABAMA BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPEAR TO
BE TOO STRONG FOR WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD MIX
OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS.
05/MA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY`S FORECAST IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE LETTERS MCS... AS IN
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS CAN REALLY MESS WITH A FORECAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SINCE WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS LEFTOVER FROM THE NOW DEFUNCT OVERNIGHT MCS IN MISSISSIPPI
HAVE SLOWED THE RATE OF HEATING TODAY. AS OF 3 PM CDT... MANY
LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW REACHING THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...
AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE IN OUR NORTHEASTERN AREA AROUND
ANNISTON AND GADSDEN. BACK IN MISSISSIPPI PRECIP IS STRUGGLING TO
GET GOING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THOSE LEFTOVER
CLOUDS MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
SBCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...
STILL THINK SOME SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR FOR A MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE GLANCES THE REGION TO THE
NORTH. LOOKING AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...
THE WIND SHEAR NEEDED TO ORGANIZE STORMS IS TOO WEAK... 30 KT OR
LESS. SO WHILE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM MISSISSIPPI... THINK THAT STORMS FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
I-20/59 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING... AND
HAVE ONLY KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE 10 AM.
OTHERWISE EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE RAIN FREE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
FRIDAY A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL BRING
OUR HIGHS DOWN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ALSO... MORNING LOWS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR... UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW/MID 50S SOUTH. BEHIND
THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. BASED OFF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN AND THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR FRIDAY... NOT EXPECTING PRECIP FOR
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR EAST...
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE PLACED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH ABOUT NEXT TUESDAY. UNDER THIS SETUP AND GIVEN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE... WE OFTEN GET MCS FEATURES MOVING FROM ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. THE
12Z ECMWF IS HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT DOES KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
EITHER TO THE NORTH OR WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA... BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. OF COURSE... THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY
FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN PLACE AND THE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF ALABAMA. IN KEEPING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE... HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO AGREE ON A
SPECIFIC DAY (OR DAYS) FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT... THEN POPS
MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED. BUT MCS FORMATION IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
USUALLY VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE GLOBAL SCALE MODELS TO PICK UP
ON... ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. SO ITS BASICALLY WAIT AND SEE.
REGARDLESS.... WEEKEND TEMPS LOOK VERY NICE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
77/GLEASON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 62 83 56 76 47 / 20 10 10 0 0
ANNISTON 63 84 58 77 49 / 20 10 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 64 84 59 77 51 / 20 10 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 62 87 60 80 51 / 20 10 10 0 0
CALERA 65 84 59 79 52 / 20 10 10 0 0
AUBURN 66 84 60 79 54 / 20 20 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 67 88 62 83 54 / 20 20 10 0 0
TROY 67 88 62 83 52 / 20 20 10 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/05/77
000
FXUS64 KHUN 230241 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
941 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST FORECAST FOR WEATHER, SKY COVER, AND DEWPOINT TRENDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY COMPLEX SET OF BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COUPLE OF
SLOW MOVING FRONTS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST FOR TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS JACKSON AND FRANKLIN
(TN) COUNTIES. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS HAS A TONGUE OF MOISTURE (>65F
DEWPOINTS) OVER S/CENTRAL MS EDGING INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH ALABAMA. THIS MOISTURE TONGUE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST
WITH THE APPROACH OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH (BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR) OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER AND ANOTHER FRONT TO THE NW OVER E MO/S
IL/IN/NW AR. THUS, HAVE ONLY RETAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER FAR NE AL AND FRANKLIN COUNTY TN.
CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED ALMOST COMPLETELY ACROSS NW AL WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING FURTHER EAST OVER NE AL/S MIDDLE TN, AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
SKY COVER FORECAST. DUE TO THE CLEARING AND DECREASING WINDS,
STILL EXPECTING PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ADDITION, DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN TRAILING OFF SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST AND MADE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS AS WELL.
SL.77
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 634 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL AND S MIDDLE TN
FOR THE MOST NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOL -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY BTWN
00-02Z ACROSS KHSV. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE BTWN 08-12Z. FURTHER
DROPS IN VIS ARE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY AT KMSL), BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL AFTER 14Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 13 KTS GUSTING TO 20
KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING.
SL.77
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
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