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000
FXUS64 KHUN 272339
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
539 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
A NW FLOW PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A MAJOR WINTER
STORM AFFECTING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND ESPECIALLY NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM`S EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST AS IT GRADUALLY HEADS FURTHER TO THE NE. MORE CLOUDS (WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES) CONTINUED ACROSS FAR NE ALABAMA AND
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...GIVEN ANOTHER SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER TO THE WEST...RESIDUAL LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN FLAT CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...WHILE NW ALABAMA WAS SUNNY. THIS HAS HELPED WARM
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S NEAR/WEST OF I-65...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER IN WINCHESTER.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
NORTHERLY FLOW...AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPER HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLOUDS HOWEVER
WILL INCREASE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS ESE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS RANGE...
MODEL OUTPUT VARIES REGARDING RAIN CHANCES. THE NAM/SREF WERE THE
DRIEST...FOLLOWED BY THE GFS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST. GIVEN
THIS...STAYED THE COURSE WITH LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THU
AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO WIND THEM DOWN THU NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL INCREASE ON SAT AS A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE AND INSTABILITY SUN AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND MODERATE SHEAR. NOT ENOUGH OF THE FORMER TO INTRODUCE
THUNDER THIS GO AROUND. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF TAKE THIS SYSTEM`S
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION...PLACING THE AREA IN A MORE
SHOWERY RATHER THAN RAINY REGIME. A FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN...WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NW. THE ECMWF WAS THE COLDER MODEL...SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SUN NITE AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDED THE MIX
(PRIMARILY RAIN) FOR THE PREDAWN OF MON...WITH FLURRIES TO START
MONDAY. IN ANY CASE...NOTABLY COLDER TO BEGIN A NEW WEEK...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MON/TUE.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
WINDS MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 272339
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
539 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
A NW FLOW PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A MAJOR WINTER
STORM AFFECTING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND ESPECIALLY NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM`S EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST AS IT GRADUALLY HEADS FURTHER TO THE NE. MORE CLOUDS (WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES) CONTINUED ACROSS FAR NE ALABAMA AND
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...GIVEN ANOTHER SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER TO THE WEST...RESIDUAL LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN FLAT CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...WHILE NW ALABAMA WAS SUNNY. THIS HAS HELPED WARM
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S NEAR/WEST OF I-65...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER IN WINCHESTER.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
NORTHERLY FLOW...AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPER HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLOUDS HOWEVER
WILL INCREASE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS ESE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS RANGE...
MODEL OUTPUT VARIES REGARDING RAIN CHANCES. THE NAM/SREF WERE THE
DRIEST...FOLLOWED BY THE GFS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST. GIVEN
THIS...STAYED THE COURSE WITH LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THU
AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO WIND THEM DOWN THU NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL INCREASE ON SAT AS A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE AND INSTABILITY SUN AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND MODERATE SHEAR. NOT ENOUGH OF THE FORMER TO INTRODUCE
THUNDER THIS GO AROUND. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF TAKE THIS SYSTEM`S
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION...PLACING THE AREA IN A MORE
SHOWERY RATHER THAN RAINY REGIME. A FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN...WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NW. THE ECMWF WAS THE COLDER MODEL...SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SUN NITE AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDED THE MIX
(PRIMARILY RAIN) FOR THE PREDAWN OF MON...WITH FLURRIES TO START
MONDAY. IN ANY CASE...NOTABLY COLDER TO BEGIN A NEW WEEK...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MON/TUE.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
WINDS MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 272332
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE QUITE GUSTY DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
RISE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATING...AND THAT
COULD BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES RISE
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN.

ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE RETURNS DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL CHANCES...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LOW AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THE MOST. IN FACT...WE
MAY HAVE TO REDUCE POPS EVEN FURTHER FROM THE LOW CHANCE THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WORKING INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

WE WON`T SEE THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WE`LL STILL COOL DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ON FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING EXTREMELY COLD. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS WEEKEND WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. ONLY RAINFALL IS BEING MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. WE`LL WATCH FOR MORE
CONSISTENT TRENDS IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT`S
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE LOW
TRAVELS FURTHER NORTHWARD WE COULD BE IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS...SOME PERHAPS STRONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 50
KNOTS. STILL LOTS OF TIME FOR BETTER CONSISTENCIES BEFORE
MENTIONING THUNDER JUST YET. I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED HIGHER
WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A BIT TO REFLECT A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...BASICALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
MONDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 7 KTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 272332
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE QUITE GUSTY DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
RISE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATING...AND THAT
COULD BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES RISE
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN.

ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE RETURNS DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL CHANCES...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LOW AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THE MOST. IN FACT...WE
MAY HAVE TO REDUCE POPS EVEN FURTHER FROM THE LOW CHANCE THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WORKING INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

WE WON`T SEE THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WE`LL STILL COOL DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ON FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING EXTREMELY COLD. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS WEEKEND WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. ONLY RAINFALL IS BEING MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. WE`LL WATCH FOR MORE
CONSISTENT TRENDS IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT`S
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE LOW
TRAVELS FURTHER NORTHWARD WE COULD BE IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS...SOME PERHAPS STRONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 50
KNOTS. STILL LOTS OF TIME FOR BETTER CONSISTENCIES BEFORE
MENTIONING THUNDER JUST YET. I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED HIGHER
WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A BIT TO REFLECT A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...BASICALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
MONDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 7 KTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 272322 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP
OFF TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR MS AND AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND LOW 60S FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST. 07/MB

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN AS A DRY MID LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST...BECOMING POSITIONED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CHILLY...BUT VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 40S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH
FRONTAL ASCENT...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A
FEW AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND WESTERN
LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY REACH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
LIKELY PROSPECTS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSTED IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 10/21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  63  42  69  46 /  00  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   41  61  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  20
DESTIN      43  59  46  64  50 /  00  00  00  00  20
EVERGREEN   34  62  36  70  44 /  00  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  35  62  38  71  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CAMDEN      31  60  35  70  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   35  62  36  69  47 /  00  00  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 272322 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP
OFF TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR MS AND AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND LOW 60S FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST. 07/MB

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN AS A DRY MID LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST...BECOMING POSITIONED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CHILLY...BUT VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 40S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH
FRONTAL ASCENT...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A
FEW AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND WESTERN
LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY REACH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
LIKELY PROSPECTS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSTED IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 10/21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  63  42  69  46 /  00  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   41  61  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  20
DESTIN      43  59  46  64  50 /  00  00  00  00  20
EVERGREEN   34  62  36  70  44 /  00  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  35  62  38  71  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CAMDEN      31  60  35  70  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   35  62  36  69  47 /  00  00  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 272322 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP
OFF TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR MS AND AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND LOW 60S FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST. 07/MB

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN AS A DRY MID LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST...BECOMING POSITIONED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CHILLY...BUT VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 40S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH
FRONTAL ASCENT...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A
FEW AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND WESTERN
LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY REACH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
LIKELY PROSPECTS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSTED IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 10/21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  63  42  69  46 /  00  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   41  61  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  20
DESTIN      43  59  46  64  50 /  00  00  00  00  20
EVERGREEN   34  62  36  70  44 /  00  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  35  62  38  71  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CAMDEN      31  60  35  70  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   35  62  36  69  47 /  00  00  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 272322 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP
OFF TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR MS AND AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND LOW 60S FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST. 07/MB

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN AS A DRY MID LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST...BECOMING POSITIONED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CHILLY...BUT VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 40S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH
FRONTAL ASCENT...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A
FEW AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND WESTERN
LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY REACH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
LIKELY PROSPECTS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSTED IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 10/21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  63  42  69  46 /  00  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   41  61  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  20
DESTIN      43  59  46  64  50 /  00  00  00  00  20
EVERGREEN   34  62  36  70  44 /  00  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  35  62  38  71  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CAMDEN      31  60  35  70  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   35  62  36  69  47 /  00  00  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 272201
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE QUITE GUSTY DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
RISE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATING...AND THAT
COULD BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES RISE
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN.

ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE RETURNS DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL CHANCES...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LOW AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THE MOST. IN FACT...WE
MAY HAVE TO REDUCE POPS EVEN FURTHER FROM THE LOW CHANCE THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WORKING INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

WE WON`T SEE THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WE`LL STILL COOL DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ON FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING EXTREMELY COLD. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS WEEKEND WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. ONLY RAINFALL IS BEING MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. WE`LL WATCH FOR MORE
CONSISTENT TRENDS IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT`S
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE LOW
TRAVELS FURTHER NORTHWARD WE COULD BE IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS...SOME PERHAPS STRONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 50
KNOTS. STILL LOTS OF TIME FOR BETTER CONSISTENCIES BEFORE
MENTIONING THUNDER JUST YET. I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED HIGHER
WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A BIT TO REFLECT A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...BASICALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
MONDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS WERE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND ARE
INCHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOME SCT040-060 TO DEVELOP AT
MOST PLACES. BUT SINCE THE AIR IS RATHER DRY AND HEATING WILL
INDUCE MIXING...KEPT ANY MENTION OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS MOISTURE WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT KEPT THESE CEILINGS
NORTH. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DID A BETTER JOB LAST NIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS AND LEANED THAT WAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KTS...SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  54  32  58  35 /   0   0   0  20  20
ANNISTON    29  56  35  60  37 /   0   0   0  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  29  56  37  61  37 /   0   0   0  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  31  59  38  65  39 /   0   0   0  20  20
CALERA      31  57  38  62  38 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUBURN      31  57  36  59  39 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  31  61  36  65  40 /   0   0   0  10  20
TROY        31  60  34  64  42 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 272201
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE QUITE GUSTY DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
RISE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATING...AND THAT
COULD BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES RISE
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN.

ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE RETURNS DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL CHANCES...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LOW AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THE MOST. IN FACT...WE
MAY HAVE TO REDUCE POPS EVEN FURTHER FROM THE LOW CHANCE THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WORKING INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

WE WON`T SEE THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WE`LL STILL COOL DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ON FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING EXTREMELY COLD. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS WEEKEND WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. ONLY RAINFALL IS BEING MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. WE`LL WATCH FOR MORE
CONSISTENT TRENDS IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT`S
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE LOW
TRAVELS FURTHER NORTHWARD WE COULD BE IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS...SOME PERHAPS STRONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 50
KNOTS. STILL LOTS OF TIME FOR BETTER CONSISTENCIES BEFORE
MENTIONING THUNDER JUST YET. I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED HIGHER
WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A BIT TO REFLECT A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...BASICALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
MONDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS WERE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND ARE
INCHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOME SCT040-060 TO DEVELOP AT
MOST PLACES. BUT SINCE THE AIR IS RATHER DRY AND HEATING WILL
INDUCE MIXING...KEPT ANY MENTION OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS MOISTURE WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT KEPT THESE CEILINGS
NORTH. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DID A BETTER JOB LAST NIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS AND LEANED THAT WAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KTS...SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  54  32  58  35 /   0   0   0  20  20
ANNISTON    29  56  35  60  37 /   0   0   0  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  29  56  37  61  37 /   0   0   0  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  31  59  38  65  39 /   0   0   0  20  20
CALERA      31  57  38  62  38 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUBURN      31  57  36  59  39 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  31  61  36  65  40 /   0   0   0  10  20
TROY        31  60  34  64  42 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 272201
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE QUITE GUSTY DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
RISE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATING...AND THAT
COULD BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES RISE
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN.

ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE RETURNS DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL CHANCES...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LOW AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THE MOST. IN FACT...WE
MAY HAVE TO REDUCE POPS EVEN FURTHER FROM THE LOW CHANCE THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WORKING INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

WE WON`T SEE THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WE`LL STILL COOL DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ON FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING EXTREMELY COLD. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS WEEKEND WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. ONLY RAINFALL IS BEING MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. WE`LL WATCH FOR MORE
CONSISTENT TRENDS IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT`S
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE LOW
TRAVELS FURTHER NORTHWARD WE COULD BE IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS...SOME PERHAPS STRONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 50
KNOTS. STILL LOTS OF TIME FOR BETTER CONSISTENCIES BEFORE
MENTIONING THUNDER JUST YET. I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED HIGHER
WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A BIT TO REFLECT A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...BASICALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
MONDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS WERE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND ARE
INCHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOME SCT040-060 TO DEVELOP AT
MOST PLACES. BUT SINCE THE AIR IS RATHER DRY AND HEATING WILL
INDUCE MIXING...KEPT ANY MENTION OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS MOISTURE WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT KEPT THESE CEILINGS
NORTH. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DID A BETTER JOB LAST NIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS AND LEANED THAT WAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KTS...SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  54  32  58  35 /   0   0   0  20  20
ANNISTON    29  56  35  60  37 /   0   0   0  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  29  56  37  61  37 /   0   0   0  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  31  59  38  65  39 /   0   0   0  20  20
CALERA      31  57  38  62  38 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUBURN      31  57  36  59  39 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  31  61  36  65  40 /   0   0   0  10  20
TROY        31  60  34  64  42 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 272201
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE QUITE GUSTY DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
RISE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATING...AND THAT
COULD BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES RISE
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN.

ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE RETURNS DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL CHANCES...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LOW AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THE MOST. IN FACT...WE
MAY HAVE TO REDUCE POPS EVEN FURTHER FROM THE LOW CHANCE THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WORKING INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

WE WON`T SEE THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WE`LL STILL COOL DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ON FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING EXTREMELY COLD. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS WEEKEND WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. ONLY RAINFALL IS BEING MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. WE`LL WATCH FOR MORE
CONSISTENT TRENDS IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT`S
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE LOW
TRAVELS FURTHER NORTHWARD WE COULD BE IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS...SOME PERHAPS STRONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 50
KNOTS. STILL LOTS OF TIME FOR BETTER CONSISTENCIES BEFORE
MENTIONING THUNDER JUST YET. I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED HIGHER
WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A BIT TO REFLECT A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...BASICALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
MONDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS WERE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND ARE
INCHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOME SCT040-060 TO DEVELOP AT
MOST PLACES. BUT SINCE THE AIR IS RATHER DRY AND HEATING WILL
INDUCE MIXING...KEPT ANY MENTION OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS MOISTURE WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT KEPT THESE CEILINGS
NORTH. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DID A BETTER JOB LAST NIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS AND LEANED THAT WAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KTS...SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  54  32  58  35 /   0   0   0  20  20
ANNISTON    29  56  35  60  37 /   0   0   0  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  29  56  37  61  37 /   0   0   0  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  31  59  38  65  39 /   0   0   0  20  20
CALERA      31  57  38  62  38 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUBURN      31  57  36  59  39 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  31  61  36  65  40 /   0   0   0  10  20
TROY        31  60  34  64  42 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 272153
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
353 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP OFF
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR MS AND AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND LOW 60S FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST. 07/MB

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN AS A DRY MID LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST...BECOMING POSITIONED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CHILLY...BUT VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 40S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH
FRONTAL ASCENT...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A
FEW AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND WESTERN LA
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY REACH FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
LIKELY PROSPECTS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSTED IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 10/21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  63  42  69  46 /  00  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   41  61  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  20
DESTIN      43  59  46  64  50 /  00  00  00  00  20
EVERGREEN   34  62  36  70  44 /  00  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  35  62  38  71  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CAMDEN      31  60  35  70  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   35  62  36  69  47 /  00  00  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 272059
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
259 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A NW FLOW PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A MAJOR WINTER
STORM AFFECTING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND ESPECIALLY NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM`S EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST AS IT GRADUALLY HEADS FURTHER TO THE NE. MORE CLOUDS (WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES) CONTINUED ACROSS FAR NE ALABAMA AND
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...GIVEN ANOTHER SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER TO THE WEST...RESIDUAL LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN FLAT CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...WHILE NW ALABAMA WAS SUNNY. THIS HAS HELPED WARM
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S NEAR/WEST OF I-65...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER IN WINCHESTER.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
NORTHERLY FLOW...AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPER HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLOUDS HOWEVER
WILL INCREASE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS ESE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS RANGE...
MODEL OUTPUT VARIES REGARDING RAIN CHANCES. THE NAM/SREF WERE THE
DRIEST...FOLLOWED BY THE GFS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST. GIVEN
THIS...STAYED THE COURSE WITH LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THU
AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO WIND THEM DOWN THU NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL INCREASE ON SAT AS A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE AND INSTABILITY SUN AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND MODERATE SHEAR. NOT ENOUGH OF THE FORMER TO INTRODUCE
THUNDER THIS GO AROUND. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF TAKE THIS SYSTEM`S
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION...PLACING THE AREA IN A MORE
SHOWERY RATHER THAN RAINY REGIME. A FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN...WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NW. THE ECMWF WAS THE COLDER MODEL...SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SUN NITE AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDED THE MIX
(PRIMARILY RAIN) FOR THE PREDAWN OF MON...WITH FLURRIES TO START
MONDAY. IN ANY CASE...NOTABLY COLDER TO BEGIN A NEW WEEK...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MON/TUE.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1139 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 3K FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY THICKER CLOUD COVER REMAINING
JUST TO THE N/E. VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HRS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    29  51  37  56 /   0   0  10  30
SHOALS        29  52  39  56 /   0   0  10  30
VINEMONT      28  49  37  55 /   0   0   0  30
FAYETTEVILLE  27  49  36  54 /   0   0  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   28  48  34  53 /   0   0   0  30
FORT PAYNE    27  48  33  54 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 272059
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
259 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A NW FLOW PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A MAJOR WINTER
STORM AFFECTING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND ESPECIALLY NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM`S EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST AS IT GRADUALLY HEADS FURTHER TO THE NE. MORE CLOUDS (WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES) CONTINUED ACROSS FAR NE ALABAMA AND
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...GIVEN ANOTHER SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER TO THE WEST...RESIDUAL LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN FLAT CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...WHILE NW ALABAMA WAS SUNNY. THIS HAS HELPED WARM
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S NEAR/WEST OF I-65...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER IN WINCHESTER.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
NORTHERLY FLOW...AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPER HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLOUDS HOWEVER
WILL INCREASE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS ESE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS RANGE...
MODEL OUTPUT VARIES REGARDING RAIN CHANCES. THE NAM/SREF WERE THE
DRIEST...FOLLOWED BY THE GFS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST. GIVEN
THIS...STAYED THE COURSE WITH LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THU
AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO WIND THEM DOWN THU NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL INCREASE ON SAT AS A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE AND INSTABILITY SUN AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND MODERATE SHEAR. NOT ENOUGH OF THE FORMER TO INTRODUCE
THUNDER THIS GO AROUND. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF TAKE THIS SYSTEM`S
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION...PLACING THE AREA IN A MORE
SHOWERY RATHER THAN RAINY REGIME. A FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN...WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NW. THE ECMWF WAS THE COLDER MODEL...SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SUN NITE AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDED THE MIX
(PRIMARILY RAIN) FOR THE PREDAWN OF MON...WITH FLURRIES TO START
MONDAY. IN ANY CASE...NOTABLY COLDER TO BEGIN A NEW WEEK...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MON/TUE.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1139 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 3K FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY THICKER CLOUD COVER REMAINING
JUST TO THE N/E. VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HRS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    29  51  37  56 /   0   0  10  30
SHOALS        29  52  39  56 /   0   0  10  30
VINEMONT      28  49  37  55 /   0   0   0  30
FAYETTEVILLE  27  49  36  54 /   0   0  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   28  48  34  53 /   0   0   0  30
FORT PAYNE    27  48  33  54 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271739 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1139 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1039 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
AFTER A NICE AND BRIEF CLEARING TREND EARLIER THIS MORNING...CLOUDS
HAVE STARTED TO GRADUALLY FILL/LOWER SWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AS THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
EWD. THIS HAS AT LEAST ALLOWED TEMPS ACROSS MANY AREAS TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S...AND A FEW DEGREES MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER. NNWLY FLOW HAS ALSO BECOME FAIRLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME HEADING INTO MID WEEK. FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THOUGH...CLOUD/TEMP GRIDS WERE REFRESHED BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 3K FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY THICKER CLOUD COVER REMAINING
JUST TO THE N/E. VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HRS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271739 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1139 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1039 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
AFTER A NICE AND BRIEF CLEARING TREND EARLIER THIS MORNING...CLOUDS
HAVE STARTED TO GRADUALLY FILL/LOWER SWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AS THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
EWD. THIS HAS AT LEAST ALLOWED TEMPS ACROSS MANY AREAS TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S...AND A FEW DEGREES MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER. NNWLY FLOW HAS ALSO BECOME FAIRLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME HEADING INTO MID WEEK. FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THOUGH...CLOUD/TEMP GRIDS WERE REFRESHED BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 3K FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY THICKER CLOUD COVER REMAINING
JUST TO THE N/E. VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HRS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 271719
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1119 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE AT VARYING LEVELS TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD
US FROM THE NORTH. THESE CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED BUT HAVE OCCASIONALLY PRODUCED CEILINGS. MUCH THE SAME
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THESE CLOUDS INCH SOUTHWARD. AS TEMPS WARM
UP TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE ON THE EDGES...BUT SOME WILL MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER NORTH. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
WINDS HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...TEMPS OUTSIDE THE CLOUDS HAVE
ACTUALLY WARMED UP AND INCREASED HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES AREA
WIDE. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BECAUSE THEY
HANDLED THE CLOUDS BETTER LAST NIGHT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS WERE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND ARE
INCHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOME SCT040-060 TO DEVELOP AT
MOST PLACES. BUT SINCE THE AIR IS RATHER DRY AND HEATING WILL
INDUCE MIXING...KEPT ANY MENTION OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS MOISTURE WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT KEPT THESE CEILINGS
NORTH. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DID A BETTER JOB LAST NIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS AND LEANED THAT WAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KTS...SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTH ALABAMA HAS BEEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. LOWERED MINIMUMS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOSE LOCATION OF SURFACE
HIGH. A NICE WARM-UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF FRONT...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES ON
THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. A CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL HELP PULL PACIFIC
MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
GFS/ECWMF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING RAIN ACROSS ALABAMA ON
SUNDAY...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY BY SUNRISE MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA MONDAY MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  26  52  33  57 /  10   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    53  27  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  53  29  55  38  59 /   0   0   0   0  20
TUSCALOOSA  57  30  56  39  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      55  29  55  37  60 /   0   0   0   0  20
AUBURN      57  29  55  36  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  60  30  57  35  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        62  30  56  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271719
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1119 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE AT VARYING LEVELS TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD
US FROM THE NORTH. THESE CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED BUT HAVE OCCASIONALLY PRODUCED CEILINGS. MUCH THE SAME
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THESE CLOUDS INCH SOUTHWARD. AS TEMPS WARM
UP TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE ON THE EDGES...BUT SOME WILL MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER NORTH. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
WINDS HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...TEMPS OUTSIDE THE CLOUDS HAVE
ACTUALLY WARMED UP AND INCREASED HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES AREA
WIDE. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BECAUSE THEY
HANDLED THE CLOUDS BETTER LAST NIGHT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS WERE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND ARE
INCHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOME SCT040-060 TO DEVELOP AT
MOST PLACES. BUT SINCE THE AIR IS RATHER DRY AND HEATING WILL
INDUCE MIXING...KEPT ANY MENTION OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS MOISTURE WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT KEPT THESE CEILINGS
NORTH. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DID A BETTER JOB LAST NIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS AND LEANED THAT WAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KTS...SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTH ALABAMA HAS BEEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. LOWERED MINIMUMS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOSE LOCATION OF SURFACE
HIGH. A NICE WARM-UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF FRONT...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES ON
THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. A CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL HELP PULL PACIFIC
MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
GFS/ECWMF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING RAIN ACROSS ALABAMA ON
SUNDAY...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY BY SUNRISE MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA MONDAY MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  26  52  33  57 /  10   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    53  27  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  53  29  55  38  59 /   0   0   0   0  20
TUSCALOOSA  57  30  56  39  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      55  29  55  37  60 /   0   0   0   0  20
AUBURN      57  29  55  36  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  60  30  57  35  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        62  30  56  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 271656
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1056 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. 07/MB

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP TROF
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ALONG
WITH LESS WIND. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MORE COLD
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS TODAY CLIMB TO THE MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.4-0.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CLIP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LIFT AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY LOOK TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND
WESTERN LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY
REACH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST MONDAY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21

MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REBUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK THIS SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY THU LEADING TO A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THU AND THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  37  61  41  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   65  40  59  43  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      63  43  57  45  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   66  34  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  67  34  60  37  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      65  32  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   66  35  60  35  68 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 271656
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1056 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. 07/MB

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP TROF
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ALONG
WITH LESS WIND. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MORE COLD
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS TODAY CLIMB TO THE MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.4-0.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CLIP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LIFT AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY LOOK TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND
WESTERN LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY
REACH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST MONDAY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21

MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REBUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK THIS SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY THU LEADING TO A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THU AND THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  37  61  41  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   65  40  59  43  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      63  43  57  45  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   66  34  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  67  34  60  37  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      65  32  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   66  35  60  35  68 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 271656
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1056 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. 07/MB

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP TROF
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ALONG
WITH LESS WIND. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MORE COLD
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS TODAY CLIMB TO THE MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.4-0.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CLIP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LIFT AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY LOOK TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND
WESTERN LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY
REACH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST MONDAY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21

MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REBUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK THIS SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY THU LEADING TO A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THU AND THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  37  61  41  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   65  40  59  43  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      63  43  57  45  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   66  34  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  67  34  60  37  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      65  32  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   66  35  60  35  68 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 271656
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1056 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. 07/MB

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP TROF
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ALONG
WITH LESS WIND. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MORE COLD
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS TODAY CLIMB TO THE MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.4-0.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CLIP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LIFT AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY LOOK TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND
WESTERN LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY
REACH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST MONDAY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21

MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REBUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK THIS SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY THU LEADING TO A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THU AND THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  37  61  41  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   65  40  59  43  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      63  43  57  45  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   66  34  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  67  34  60  37  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      65  32  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   66  35  60  35  68 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 271639 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1039 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A NICE AND BRIEF CLEARING TREND EARLIER THIS MORNING...CLOUDS
HAVE STARTED TO GRADUALLY FILL/LOWER SWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AS THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
EWD. THIS HAS AT LEAST ALLOWED TEMPS ACROSS MANY AREAS TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S...AND A FEW DEGREES MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER. NNWLY FLOW HAS ALSO BECOME FAIRLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME HEADING INTO MID WEEK. FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THOUGH...CLOUD/TEMP GRIDS WERE REFRESHED BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 512 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
01Z BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SCT025 DECK FOR NOW AFTER 00Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 212 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
UPPER JET CORE OF 130-140KT DIVING SE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY ALLOWING A RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE MS, OH
AND TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD
WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT, PRECIP
RETURNS IN MIDDLE TN SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NE THIS MORNING, SO
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S-L50S. A CLEAR-MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH COLD NELY FLOW DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 20S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT FZFG DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW OFF SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MAKE A RIGHT TURN THRU
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THRU THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. DECENT POSITIVE DPVA AND -DIVQ
VALUES INDICATE GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS A LARGE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. DRY WEATHER IS FORESEEN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF LEAD
SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC BASED UPPER TROF. LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR FED BY E-SELY FLOW AND PSBL CAD WILL LIKELY DELAY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY. A MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPLY IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS NW OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND A LLJ AXIS IS ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER NWD INTO THE REGION. WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF ENOUGH COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BEFORE THE MOISTURE DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE OPTED
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271639 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1039 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A NICE AND BRIEF CLEARING TREND EARLIER THIS MORNING...CLOUDS
HAVE STARTED TO GRADUALLY FILL/LOWER SWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AS THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
EWD. THIS HAS AT LEAST ALLOWED TEMPS ACROSS MANY AREAS TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S...AND A FEW DEGREES MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER. NNWLY FLOW HAS ALSO BECOME FAIRLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME HEADING INTO MID WEEK. FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THOUGH...CLOUD/TEMP GRIDS WERE REFRESHED BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 512 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
01Z BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SCT025 DECK FOR NOW AFTER 00Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 212 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
UPPER JET CORE OF 130-140KT DIVING SE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY ALLOWING A RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE MS, OH
AND TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD
WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT, PRECIP
RETURNS IN MIDDLE TN SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NE THIS MORNING, SO
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S-L50S. A CLEAR-MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH COLD NELY FLOW DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 20S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT FZFG DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW OFF SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MAKE A RIGHT TURN THRU
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THRU THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. DECENT POSITIVE DPVA AND -DIVQ
VALUES INDICATE GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS A LARGE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. DRY WEATHER IS FORESEEN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF LEAD
SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC BASED UPPER TROF. LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR FED BY E-SELY FLOW AND PSBL CAD WILL LIKELY DELAY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY. A MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPLY IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS NW OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND A LLJ AXIS IS ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER NWD INTO THE REGION. WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF ENOUGH COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BEFORE THE MOISTURE DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE OPTED
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271134
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
534 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTH ALABAMA HAS BEEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. LOWERED MINIMUMS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOSE LOCATION OF SURFACE
HIGH. A NICE WARM-UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF FRONT...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES ON
THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. A CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL HELP PULL PACIFIC
MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
GFS/ECWMF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING RAIN ACROSS ALABAMA ON
SUNDAY...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY BY SUNRISE MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA MONDAY MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. LOW/MID CLOUD DECK
WILL PERSIST JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. SOME 4-5K FT CIGS MAY REACH ANB/ASN AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...THEN
DECREASE BACK TO 5 KTS IN THE EVENING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  26  52  33  57 /  10   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    51  27  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  52  29  55  38  59 /   0   0   0   0  20
TUSCALOOSA  56  30  56  39  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      53  29  55  37  60 /   0   0   0   0  20
AUBURN      53  29  55  36  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  30  57  35  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        57  30  56  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 271112 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
512 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 212 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
UPPER JET CORE OF 130-140KT DIVING SE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY ALLOWING A RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE MS, OH
AND TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD
WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT, PRECIP
RETURNS IN MIDDLE TN SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NE THIS MORNING, SO
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S-L50S. A CLEAR-MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH COLD NELY FLOW DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 20S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT FZFG DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW OFF SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MAKE A RIGHT TURN THRU
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THRU THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. DECENT POSITIVE DPVA AND -DIVQ
VALUES INDICATE GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS A LARGE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. DRY WEATHER IS FORESEEN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF LEAD
SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC BASED UPPER TROF. LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR FED BY E-SELY FLOW AND PSBL CAD WILL LIKELY DELAY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY. A MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPLY IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS NW OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND A LLJ AXIS IS ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER NWD INTO THE REGION. WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF ENOUGH COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BEFORE THE MOISTURE DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE OPTED
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
01Z BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SCT025 DECK FOR NOW AFTER 00Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 271036
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP TROF
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ALONG
WITH LESS WIND. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MORE COLD
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS TODAY CLIMB TO THE MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.4-0.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CLIP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LIFT AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY LOOK TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND
WESTERN LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY
REACH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST MONDAY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING NORTHEAST DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 7 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REBUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK THIS SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY THU LEADING TO A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THU AND THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  37  61  41  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   65  40  59  43  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      64  43  57  45  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   65  34  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  64  34  60  37  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      64  32  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   65  35  60  35  68 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271036
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP TROF
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ALONG
WITH LESS WIND. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MORE COLD
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS TODAY CLIMB TO THE MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.4-0.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CLIP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LIFT AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY LOOK TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND
WESTERN LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY
REACH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST MONDAY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING NORTHEAST DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 7 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REBUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK THIS SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY THU LEADING TO A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THU AND THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  37  61  41  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   65  40  59  43  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      64  43  57  45  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   65  34  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  64  34  60  37  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      64  32  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   65  35  60  35  68 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271036
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP TROF
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ALONG
WITH LESS WIND. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MORE COLD
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS TODAY CLIMB TO THE MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.4-0.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CLIP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LIFT AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY LOOK TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND
WESTERN LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY
REACH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST MONDAY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING NORTHEAST DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 7 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REBUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK THIS SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY THU LEADING TO A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THU AND THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  37  61  41  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   65  40  59  43  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      64  43  57  45  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   65  34  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  64  34  60  37  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      64  32  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   65  35  60  35  68 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271036
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP TROF
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ALONG
WITH LESS WIND. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MORE COLD
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS TODAY CLIMB TO THE MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.4-0.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CLIP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LIFT AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY LOOK TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND
WESTERN LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY
REACH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST MONDAY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING NORTHEAST DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 7 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REBUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK THIS SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY THU LEADING TO A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THU AND THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  37  61  41  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   65  40  59  43  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      64  43  57  45  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   65  34  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  64  34  60  37  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      64  32  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   65  35  60  35  68 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270933
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTH ALABAMA HAS BEEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. LOWERED MINIMUMS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOSE LOCATION OF SURFACE
HIGH. A NICE WARM-UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF FRONT...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES ON
THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. A CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL HELP PULL PACIFIC
MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
GFS/ECWMF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING RAIN ACROSS ALABAMA ON
SUNDAY...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY BY SUNRISE MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA MONDAY MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS HAS DROPPED SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL
MENTIONED BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS OF
ANB/ASN. MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 4-5K FT
RANGE...WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS SLIGHTLY EAST. IT APPEARS ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY AND ADDED SOME
VFR CEILINGS EAST. WILL MONITOR THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES BY EARLY TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 10-20 KTS...INCLUDING GUSTS.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  28  52  33  57 /  10   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    51  29  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  52  30  55  38  59 /   0   0   0   0  20
TUSCALOOSA  56  32  56  39  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      53  31  55  37  60 /   0   0   0   0  20
AUBURN      53  32  55  36  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  32  57  35  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        57  32  56  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 270812
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
212 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER JET CORE OF 130-140KT DIVING SE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY ALLOWING A RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE MS, OH
AND TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD
WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT, PRECIP
RETURNS IN MIDDLE TN SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NE THIS MORNING, SO
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S-L50S. A CLEAR-MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH COLD NELY FLOW DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 20S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT FZFG DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW OFF SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MAKE A RIGHT TURN THRU
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THRU THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. DECENT POSITIVE DPVA AND -DIVQ
VALUES INDICATE GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS A LARGE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. DRY WEATHER IS FORESEEN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF LEAD
SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC BASED UPPER TROF. LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR FED BY E-SELY FLOW AND PSBL CAD WILL LIKELY DELAY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY. A MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPLY IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS NW OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND A LLJ AXIS IS ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER NWD INTO THE REGION. WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF ENOUGH COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BEFORE THE MOISTURE DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE OPTED
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1101 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLEARING LINE WAS JUST WEST OF KMSL. BASED ON STLT
TRENDS LOOKS LIKE MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS KMSL OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE (NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES) MOVES SE.
OTHERWISE THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE US WILL KEEP CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU THE FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  28  53  37 /  10   0   0  10
SHOALS        49  28  51  39 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      48  28  48  37 /  10   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  26  49  36 /  10   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   47  27  49  34 /  10   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    47  27  47  32 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 270812
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
212 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER JET CORE OF 130-140KT DIVING SE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY ALLOWING A RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE MS, OH
AND TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD
WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT, PRECIP
RETURNS IN MIDDLE TN SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NE THIS MORNING, SO
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S-L50S. A CLEAR-MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH COLD NELY FLOW DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 20S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT FZFG DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW OFF SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MAKE A RIGHT TURN THRU
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THRU THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. DECENT POSITIVE DPVA AND -DIVQ
VALUES INDICATE GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS A LARGE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. DRY WEATHER IS FORESEEN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF LEAD
SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC BASED UPPER TROF. LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR FED BY E-SELY FLOW AND PSBL CAD WILL LIKELY DELAY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY. A MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPLY IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS NW OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND A LLJ AXIS IS ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER NWD INTO THE REGION. WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF ENOUGH COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BEFORE THE MOISTURE DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE OPTED
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1101 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLEARING LINE WAS JUST WEST OF KMSL. BASED ON STLT
TRENDS LOOKS LIKE MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS KMSL OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE (NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES) MOVES SE.
OTHERWISE THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE US WILL KEEP CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU THE FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  28  53  37 /  10   0   0  10
SHOALS        49  28  51  39 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      48  28  48  37 /  10   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  26  49  36 /  10   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   47  27  49  34 /  10   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    47  27  47  32 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 270812
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
212 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER JET CORE OF 130-140KT DIVING SE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY ALLOWING A RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE MS, OH
AND TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD
WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT, PRECIP
RETURNS IN MIDDLE TN SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NE THIS MORNING, SO
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S-L50S. A CLEAR-MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH COLD NELY FLOW DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 20S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT FZFG DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW OFF SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MAKE A RIGHT TURN THRU
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THRU THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. DECENT POSITIVE DPVA AND -DIVQ
VALUES INDICATE GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS A LARGE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. DRY WEATHER IS FORESEEN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF LEAD
SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC BASED UPPER TROF. LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR FED BY E-SELY FLOW AND PSBL CAD WILL LIKELY DELAY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY. A MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPLY IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS NW OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND A LLJ AXIS IS ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER NWD INTO THE REGION. WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF ENOUGH COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BEFORE THE MOISTURE DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE OPTED
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1101 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLEARING LINE WAS JUST WEST OF KMSL. BASED ON STLT
TRENDS LOOKS LIKE MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS KMSL OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE (NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES) MOVES SE.
OTHERWISE THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE US WILL KEEP CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU THE FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  28  53  37 /  10   0   0  10
SHOALS        49  28  51  39 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      48  28  48  37 /  10   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  26  49  36 /  10   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   47  27  49  34 /  10   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    47  27  47  32 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 270812
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
212 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER JET CORE OF 130-140KT DIVING SE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY ALLOWING A RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE MS, OH
AND TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD
WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT, PRECIP
RETURNS IN MIDDLE TN SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NE THIS MORNING, SO
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S-L50S. A CLEAR-MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH COLD NELY FLOW DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 20S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT FZFG DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW OFF SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MAKE A RIGHT TURN THRU
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THRU THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. DECENT POSITIVE DPVA AND -DIVQ
VALUES INDICATE GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS A LARGE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. DRY WEATHER IS FORESEEN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF LEAD
SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC BASED UPPER TROF. LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR FED BY E-SELY FLOW AND PSBL CAD WILL LIKELY DELAY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY. A MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPLY IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS NW OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND A LLJ AXIS IS ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER NWD INTO THE REGION. WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF ENOUGH COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BEFORE THE MOISTURE DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE OPTED
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1101 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLEARING LINE WAS JUST WEST OF KMSL. BASED ON STLT
TRENDS LOOKS LIKE MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS KMSL OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE (NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES) MOVES SE.
OTHERWISE THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE US WILL KEEP CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU THE FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  28  53  37 /  10   0   0  10
SHOALS        49  28  51  39 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      48  28  48  37 /  10   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  26  49  36 /  10   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   47  27  49  34 /  10   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    47  27  47  32 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 270541
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED VERY QUICKLY IN CLOUD-FREE AREAS AND
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS HAS DROPPED SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL
MENTIONED BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS OF
ANB/ASN. MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 4-5K FT
RANGE...WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS SLIGHTLY EAST. IT APPEARS ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY AND ADDED SOME
VFR CEILINGS EAST. WILL MONITOR THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES BY EARLY TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 10-20 KTS...INCLUDING GUSTS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 217 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE EAST TO 50 IN THE
WEST. COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30 TO 35 RANGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. LIMITED MOISTURE
AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 12Z TRENDS WERE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THIS
ONE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...A
CUTOFF LOW WILL HAVE FORMED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
PART OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WILL BREAK OFF AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT COMES DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PICK UP SOME MOISTURE AND BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR WIDE SPREAD
RAIN TO THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. DID RAISE
THE POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACH 60 TO 65 JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  49  28  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    33  51  29  54  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  53  31  54  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  31  56  33  55  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  54  32  54  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      30  54  32  53  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  31  59  32  56  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  59  33  55  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270541
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED VERY QUICKLY IN CLOUD-FREE AREAS AND
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS HAS DROPPED SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL
MENTIONED BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS OF
ANB/ASN. MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 4-5K FT
RANGE...WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS SLIGHTLY EAST. IT APPEARS ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY AND ADDED SOME
VFR CEILINGS EAST. WILL MONITOR THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES BY EARLY TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 10-20 KTS...INCLUDING GUSTS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 217 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE EAST TO 50 IN THE
WEST. COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30 TO 35 RANGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. LIMITED MOISTURE
AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 12Z TRENDS WERE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THIS
ONE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...A
CUTOFF LOW WILL HAVE FORMED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
PART OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WILL BREAK OFF AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT COMES DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PICK UP SOME MOISTURE AND BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR WIDE SPREAD
RAIN TO THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. DID RAISE
THE POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACH 60 TO 65 JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  49  28  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    33  51  29  54  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  53  31  54  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  31  56  33  55  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  54  32  54  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      30  54  32  53  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  31  59  32  56  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  59  33  55  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270541
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED VERY QUICKLY IN CLOUD-FREE AREAS AND
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS HAS DROPPED SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL
MENTIONED BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS OF
ANB/ASN. MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 4-5K FT
RANGE...WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS SLIGHTLY EAST. IT APPEARS ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY AND ADDED SOME
VFR CEILINGS EAST. WILL MONITOR THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES BY EARLY TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 10-20 KTS...INCLUDING GUSTS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 217 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE EAST TO 50 IN THE
WEST. COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30 TO 35 RANGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. LIMITED MOISTURE
AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 12Z TRENDS WERE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THIS
ONE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...A
CUTOFF LOW WILL HAVE FORMED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
PART OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WILL BREAK OFF AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT COMES DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PICK UP SOME MOISTURE AND BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR WIDE SPREAD
RAIN TO THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. DID RAISE
THE POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACH 60 TO 65 JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  49  28  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    33  51  29  54  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  53  31  54  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  31  56  33  55  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  54  32  54  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      30  54  32  53  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  31  59  32  56  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  59  33  55  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270541
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED VERY QUICKLY IN CLOUD-FREE AREAS AND
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS HAS DROPPED SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL
MENTIONED BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS OF
ANB/ASN. MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 4-5K FT
RANGE...WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS SLIGHTLY EAST. IT APPEARS ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY AND ADDED SOME
VFR CEILINGS EAST. WILL MONITOR THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES BY EARLY TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 10-20 KTS...INCLUDING GUSTS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 217 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE EAST TO 50 IN THE
WEST. COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30 TO 35 RANGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. LIMITED MOISTURE
AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 12Z TRENDS WERE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THIS
ONE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...A
CUTOFF LOW WILL HAVE FORMED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
PART OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WILL BREAK OFF AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT COMES DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PICK UP SOME MOISTURE AND BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR WIDE SPREAD
RAIN TO THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. DID RAISE
THE POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACH 60 TO 65 JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  49  28  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    33  51  29  54  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  53  31  54  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  31  56  33  55  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  54  32  54  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      30  54  32  53  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  31  59  32  56  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  59  33  55  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 270501
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1101 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 904 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SLEET OVER
JACKSON COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA.
THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING ALL MENTION OF FLURRIES BUT NEW NAM DATA
HINTS THAT WE MAY GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WOULD BE IN OUR EXTREME NERN ZONES OF MARSHALL/DEKALB/JACKSON
COUNTIES AND FRANKLIN COUNTY TN. THUS WILL KEEP FLURRIES IN THESE
COUNTIES WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...IF WE GET ANYTHING AT ALL.
OTHERWISE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FCST.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLEARING LINE WAS JUST WEST OF KMSL. BASED ON STLT
TRENDS LOOKS LIKE MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS KMSL OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE (NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES) MOVES SE.
OTHERWISE THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE US WILL KEEP CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU THE FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270501
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1101 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 904 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SLEET OVER
JACKSON COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA.
THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING ALL MENTION OF FLURRIES BUT NEW NAM DATA
HINTS THAT WE MAY GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WOULD BE IN OUR EXTREME NERN ZONES OF MARSHALL/DEKALB/JACKSON
COUNTIES AND FRANKLIN COUNTY TN. THUS WILL KEEP FLURRIES IN THESE
COUNTIES WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...IF WE GET ANYTHING AT ALL.
OTHERWISE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FCST.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLEARING LINE WAS JUST WEST OF KMSL. BASED ON STLT
TRENDS LOOKS LIKE MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS KMSL OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE (NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES) MOVES SE.
OTHERWISE THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE US WILL KEEP CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU THE FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 270413
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1013 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED VERY QUICKLY IN CLOUD-FREE AREAS AND
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD. CENTRAL
ALABAMA WAS LOCATED ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER FEW DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS TROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INDICATED ON
SATELLITE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THERE
TOO. THESE CLOUDS WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTH AND EAST ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL AREA RADAR EVEN INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING
FAR NORTHEAST. ADDED MENTION OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AT
BHM/EET/ASN/ANB. BY 15Z...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT
EASTWARD AND THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...GUSTING 15-20KTS AT TIMES.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  49  28  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    33  51  29  54  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  53  31  54  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  31  56  33  55  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  54  32  54  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      30  54  32  53  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  31  59  32  56  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  59  33  55  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/75






000
FXUS64 KBMX 270413
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1013 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED VERY QUICKLY IN CLOUD-FREE AREAS AND
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD. CENTRAL
ALABAMA WAS LOCATED ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER FEW DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS TROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INDICATED ON
SATELLITE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THERE
TOO. THESE CLOUDS WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTH AND EAST ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL AREA RADAR EVEN INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING
FAR NORTHEAST. ADDED MENTION OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AT
BHM/EET/ASN/ANB. BY 15Z...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT
EASTWARD AND THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...GUSTING 15-20KTS AT TIMES.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  49  28  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    33  51  29  54  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  53  31  54  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  31  56  33  55  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  54  32  54  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      30  54  32  53  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  31  59  32  56  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  59  33  55  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/75





000
FXUS64 KMOB 270350
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
950 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL ADJUST MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
ALL OF THE INTERIOR FCST ZONES AS CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR
JUST BELOW PREVIOUS FCST OVERNIGHT LOWS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS...FCST LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL NOT
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. UPDATES OUT
SHORTLY. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED CWF AND ZFP FORECASTS TO REMOVE HEADLINES (FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK). OTHERWISE NO CHANES
OR ADJUSTMENT NEEDED...EXCEPT FOR DECREASING WINDS IN GRIDED DATA EVER
SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THIS EVENING. WILL HEADLINE CWF
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 270350
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
950 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL ADJUST MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
ALL OF THE INTERIOR FCST ZONES AS CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR
JUST BELOW PREVIOUS FCST OVERNIGHT LOWS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS...FCST LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL NOT
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. UPDATES OUT
SHORTLY. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED CWF AND ZFP FORECASTS TO REMOVE HEADLINES (FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK). OTHERWISE NO CHANES
OR ADJUSTMENT NEEDED...EXCEPT FOR DECREASING WINDS IN GRIDED DATA EVER
SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THIS EVENING. WILL HEADLINE CWF
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 270350
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
950 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL ADJUST MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
ALL OF THE INTERIOR FCST ZONES AS CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR
JUST BELOW PREVIOUS FCST OVERNIGHT LOWS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS...FCST LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL NOT
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. UPDATES OUT
SHORTLY. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED CWF AND ZFP FORECASTS TO REMOVE HEADLINES (FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK). OTHERWISE NO CHANES
OR ADJUSTMENT NEEDED...EXCEPT FOR DECREASING WINDS IN GRIDED DATA EVER
SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THIS EVENING. WILL HEADLINE CWF
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 270350
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
950 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL ADJUST MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
ALL OF THE INTERIOR FCST ZONES AS CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR
JUST BELOW PREVIOUS FCST OVERNIGHT LOWS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS...FCST LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL NOT
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. UPDATES OUT
SHORTLY. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED CWF AND ZFP FORECASTS TO REMOVE HEADLINES (FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK). OTHERWISE NO CHANES
OR ADJUSTMENT NEEDED...EXCEPT FOR DECREASING WINDS IN GRIDED DATA EVER
SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THIS EVENING. WILL HEADLINE CWF
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 270350
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
950 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL ADJUST MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
ALL OF THE INTERIOR FCST ZONES AS CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR
JUST BELOW PREVIOUS FCST OVERNIGHT LOWS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS...FCST LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL NOT
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. UPDATES OUT
SHORTLY. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED CWF AND ZFP FORECASTS TO REMOVE HEADLINES (FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK). OTHERWISE NO CHANES
OR ADJUSTMENT NEEDED...EXCEPT FOR DECREASING WINDS IN GRIDED DATA EVER
SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THIS EVENING. WILL HEADLINE CWF
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 270304
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
904 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
TRIMMED BACK THE AREA OF FLURRIES...OTHERWISE REST OF FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SLEET OVER
JACKSON COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA.
THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING ALL MENTION OF FLURRIES BUT NEW NAM DATA
HINTS THAT WE MAY GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WOULD BE IN OUR EXTREME NERN ZONES OF MARSHALL/DEKALB/JACKSON
COUNTIES AND FRANKLIN COUNTY TN. THUS WILL KEEP FLURRIES IN THESE
COUNTIES WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...IF WE GET ANYTHING AT ALL.
OTHERWISE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FCST.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WRAP ARND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE THE COVERAGE/CHC IS LOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z. BETWEEN 04Z
AND 18Z EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 18Z MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE AREA OF FLURRIES A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
WEST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS
OR TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 270241 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED CWF AND ZFP FORECASTS TO REMOVE HEADLINES (FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK). OTHERWISE NO CHANES
OR ADJUSTMENT NEEDED...EXCEPT FOR DECREASING WINDS IN GRIDED DATA EVER
SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THIS EVENING. WILL HEADLINE CWF
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 270241 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED CWF AND ZFP FORECASTS TO REMOVE HEADLINES (FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK). OTHERWISE NO CHANES
OR ADJUSTMENT NEEDED...EXCEPT FOR DECREASING WINDS IN GRIDED DATA EVER
SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THIS EVENING. WILL HEADLINE CWF
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 270013
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
613 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE EAST TO 50 IN THE
WEST. COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30 TO 35 RANGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. LIMITED MOISTURE
AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 12Z TRENDS WERE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THIS
ONE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...A
CUTOFF LOW WILL HAVE FORMED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
PART OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WILL BREAK OFF AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT COMES DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PICK UP SOME MOISTURE AND BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR WIDE SPREAD
RAIN TO THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. DID RAISE
THE POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACH 60 TO 65 JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD. CENTRAL
ALABAMA WAS LOCATED ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER FEW DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS TROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INDICATED ON
SATELLITE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THERE
TOO. THESE CLOUDS WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTH AND EAST ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL AREA RADAR EVEN INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING
FAR NORTHEAST. ADDED MENTION OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AT
BHM/EET/ASN/ANB. BY 15Z...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT
EASTWARD AND THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...GUSTING 15-20KTS AT TIMES.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     31  49  28  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    32  51  29  54  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  34  53  31  54  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  35  56  33  55  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      34  54  32  54  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  54  32  53  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  35  59  32  56  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        35  59  33  55  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 270013
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
613 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE EAST TO 50 IN THE
WEST. COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30 TO 35 RANGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. LIMITED MOISTURE
AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 12Z TRENDS WERE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THIS
ONE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...A
CUTOFF LOW WILL HAVE FORMED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
PART OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WILL BREAK OFF AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT COMES DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PICK UP SOME MOISTURE AND BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR WIDE SPREAD
RAIN TO THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. DID RAISE
THE POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACH 60 TO 65 JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD. CENTRAL
ALABAMA WAS LOCATED ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER FEW DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS TROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INDICATED ON
SATELLITE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THERE
TOO. THESE CLOUDS WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTH AND EAST ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL AREA RADAR EVEN INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING
FAR NORTHEAST. ADDED MENTION OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AT
BHM/EET/ASN/ANB. BY 15Z...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT
EASTWARD AND THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...GUSTING 15-20KTS AT TIMES.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     31  49  28  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    32  51  29  54  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  34  53  31  54  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  35  56  33  55  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      34  54  32  54  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  54  32  53  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  35  59  32  56  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        35  59  33  55  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 262338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...EXPANDED THE AREA OF FLURRIES. OTHERWISE MADE NO CHANGES
TO THE REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE AREA OF FLURRIES A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
WEST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS
OR TRAVEL PROBLEMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WRAP ARND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE THE COVERAGE/CHC IS LOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z. BETWEEN 04Z
AND 18Z EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 18Z MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED/PREDOM CLEARED ACROSS THE WRN AREAS THIS MON
AFTERNOON...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. ANY CLEARING THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRONG NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A POWERHOUSE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE NE STATES. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA
RADARS N OF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE FAR NERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT...AS ADDED LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE...BEFORE
A STRONGER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO
TURN TOWARD THE SE...THEREBY ALLOWING THE INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA LATE TUE INTO WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVERALL TEMPS TO
RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS AROUND MID WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF WET WX DEVELOPS GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW OF QUIET AND NEAR SEASONAL
CONDITIONS/TEMPS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN KEYING ON A STRONGER
SFC WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID/SRN PLAINS TRAVERSING
EWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA WELL TO THE E SUN NIGHT...WITH RAIN QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF FROM THE W DURING THE EVENING HRS. COOLER/DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FROM THE N...AS ANOTHER DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS. MODELS
LOOK TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT THOUGH WITH MOVING ANY LINGERING LIGHT
QPF OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA PRIOR TO THE INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 262338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...EXPANDED THE AREA OF FLURRIES. OTHERWISE MADE NO CHANGES
TO THE REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE AREA OF FLURRIES A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
WEST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS
OR TRAVEL PROBLEMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WRAP ARND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE THE COVERAGE/CHC IS LOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z. BETWEEN 04Z
AND 18Z EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 18Z MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED/PREDOM CLEARED ACROSS THE WRN AREAS THIS MON
AFTERNOON...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. ANY CLEARING THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRONG NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A POWERHOUSE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE NE STATES. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA
RADARS N OF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE FAR NERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT...AS ADDED LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE...BEFORE
A STRONGER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO
TURN TOWARD THE SE...THEREBY ALLOWING THE INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA LATE TUE INTO WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVERALL TEMPS TO
RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS AROUND MID WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF WET WX DEVELOPS GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW OF QUIET AND NEAR SEASONAL
CONDITIONS/TEMPS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN KEYING ON A STRONGER
SFC WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID/SRN PLAINS TRAVERSING
EWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA WELL TO THE E SUN NIGHT...WITH RAIN QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF FROM THE W DURING THE EVENING HRS. COOLER/DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FROM THE N...AS ANOTHER DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS. MODELS
LOOK TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT THOUGH WITH MOVING ANY LINGERING LIGHT
QPF OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA PRIOR TO THE INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 262338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...EXPANDED THE AREA OF FLURRIES. OTHERWISE MADE NO CHANGES
TO THE REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE AREA OF FLURRIES A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
WEST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS
OR TRAVEL PROBLEMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WRAP ARND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE THE COVERAGE/CHC IS LOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z. BETWEEN 04Z
AND 18Z EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 18Z MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED/PREDOM CLEARED ACROSS THE WRN AREAS THIS MON
AFTERNOON...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. ANY CLEARING THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRONG NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A POWERHOUSE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE NE STATES. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA
RADARS N OF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE FAR NERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT...AS ADDED LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE...BEFORE
A STRONGER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO
TURN TOWARD THE SE...THEREBY ALLOWING THE INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA LATE TUE INTO WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVERALL TEMPS TO
RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS AROUND MID WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF WET WX DEVELOPS GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW OF QUIET AND NEAR SEASONAL
CONDITIONS/TEMPS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN KEYING ON A STRONGER
SFC WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID/SRN PLAINS TRAVERSING
EWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA WELL TO THE E SUN NIGHT...WITH RAIN QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF FROM THE W DURING THE EVENING HRS. COOLER/DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FROM THE N...AS ANOTHER DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS. MODELS
LOOK TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT THOUGH WITH MOVING ANY LINGERING LIGHT
QPF OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA PRIOR TO THE INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 262338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...EXPANDED THE AREA OF FLURRIES. OTHERWISE MADE NO CHANGES
TO THE REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE AREA OF FLURRIES A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
WEST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS
OR TRAVEL PROBLEMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WRAP ARND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE THE COVERAGE/CHC IS LOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z. BETWEEN 04Z
AND 18Z EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 18Z MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED/PREDOM CLEARED ACROSS THE WRN AREAS THIS MON
AFTERNOON...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. ANY CLEARING THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRONG NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A POWERHOUSE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE NE STATES. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA
RADARS N OF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE FAR NERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT...AS ADDED LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE...BEFORE
A STRONGER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO
TURN TOWARD THE SE...THEREBY ALLOWING THE INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA LATE TUE INTO WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVERALL TEMPS TO
RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS AROUND MID WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF WET WX DEVELOPS GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW OF QUIET AND NEAR SEASONAL
CONDITIONS/TEMPS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN KEYING ON A STRONGER
SFC WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID/SRN PLAINS TRAVERSING
EWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA WELL TO THE E SUN NIGHT...WITH RAIN QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF FROM THE W DURING THE EVENING HRS. COOLER/DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FROM THE N...AS ANOTHER DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS. MODELS
LOOK TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT THOUGH WITH MOVING ANY LINGERING LIGHT
QPF OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA PRIOR TO THE INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 262158
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 262158
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 262158
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 262158
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 262120
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED/PREDOM CLEARED ACROSS THE WRN AREAS THIS MON
AFTERNOON...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. ANY CLEARING THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRONG NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A POWERHOUSE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE NE STATES. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA
RADARS N OF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE FAR NERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT...AS ADDED LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE...BEFORE
A STRONGER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO
TURN TOWARD THE SE...THEREBY ALLOWING THE INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA LATE TUE INTO WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVERALL TEMPS TO
RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS AROUND MID WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF WET WX DEVELOPS GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW OF QUIET AND NEAR SEASONAL
CONDITIONS/TEMPS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN KEYING ON A STRONGER
SFC WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID/SRN PLAINS TRAVERSING
EWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA WELL TO THE E SUN NIGHT...WITH RAIN QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF FROM THE W DURING THE EVENING HRS. COOLER/DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FROM THE N...AS ANOTHER DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS. MODELS
LOOK TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT THOUGH WITH MOVING ANY LINGERING LIGHT
QPF OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA PRIOR TO THE INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUED FLOWING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MIXING...
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WERE APPARENT OVER WESTERN TN AND
NORTHERN MS. THUS HAVE NOTED A RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR KMSL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPO VFR CIGS AT KHSV (BUT BECOMING MVFR EARLY IN
THE EVENING). CIGS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BECOME VFR...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR CRITERIA BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    34  47  30  51 /  10  10   0   0
SHOALS        33  48  30  52 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      33  46  29  50 /  10  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  32  43  27  49 /  10  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   31  45  29  50 /  10  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    31  47  28  49 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 262120
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED/PREDOM CLEARED ACROSS THE WRN AREAS THIS MON
AFTERNOON...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. ANY CLEARING THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRONG NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A POWERHOUSE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE NE STATES. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA
RADARS N OF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE FAR NERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT...AS ADDED LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE...BEFORE
A STRONGER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO
TURN TOWARD THE SE...THEREBY ALLOWING THE INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA LATE TUE INTO WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVERALL TEMPS TO
RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS AROUND MID WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF WET WX DEVELOPS GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW OF QUIET AND NEAR SEASONAL
CONDITIONS/TEMPS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN KEYING ON A STRONGER
SFC WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID/SRN PLAINS TRAVERSING
EWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA WELL TO THE E SUN NIGHT...WITH RAIN QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF FROM THE W DURING THE EVENING HRS. COOLER/DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FROM THE N...AS ANOTHER DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS. MODELS
LOOK TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT THOUGH WITH MOVING ANY LINGERING LIGHT
QPF OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA PRIOR TO THE INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUED FLOWING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MIXING...
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WERE APPARENT OVER WESTERN TN AND
NORTHERN MS. THUS HAVE NOTED A RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR KMSL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPO VFR CIGS AT KHSV (BUT BECOMING MVFR EARLY IN
THE EVENING). CIGS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BECOME VFR...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR CRITERIA BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    34  47  30  51 /  10  10   0   0
SHOALS        33  48  30  52 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      33  46  29  50 /  10  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  32  43  27  49 /  10  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   31  45  29  50 /  10  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    31  47  28  49 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 262120
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED/PREDOM CLEARED ACROSS THE WRN AREAS THIS MON
AFTERNOON...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. ANY CLEARING THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRONG NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A POWERHOUSE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE NE STATES. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA
RADARS N OF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE FAR NERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT...AS ADDED LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE...BEFORE
A STRONGER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO
TURN TOWARD THE SE...THEREBY ALLOWING THE INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA LATE TUE INTO WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVERALL TEMPS TO
RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS AROUND MID WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF WET WX DEVELOPS GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW OF QUIET AND NEAR SEASONAL
CONDITIONS/TEMPS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN KEYING ON A STRONGER
SFC WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID/SRN PLAINS TRAVERSING
EWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA WELL TO THE E SUN NIGHT...WITH RAIN QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF FROM THE W DURING THE EVENING HRS. COOLER/DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FROM THE N...AS ANOTHER DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS. MODELS
LOOK TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT THOUGH WITH MOVING ANY LINGERING LIGHT
QPF OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA PRIOR TO THE INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUED FLOWING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MIXING...
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WERE APPARENT OVER WESTERN TN AND
NORTHERN MS. THUS HAVE NOTED A RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR KMSL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPO VFR CIGS AT KHSV (BUT BECOMING MVFR EARLY IN
THE EVENING). CIGS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BECOME VFR...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR CRITERIA BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    34  47  30  51 /  10  10   0   0
SHOALS        33  48  30  52 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      33  46  29  50 /  10  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  32  43  27  49 /  10  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   31  45  29  50 /  10  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    31  47  28  49 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 262120
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED/PREDOM CLEARED ACROSS THE WRN AREAS THIS MON
AFTERNOON...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. ANY CLEARING THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRONG NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A POWERHOUSE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE NE STATES. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA
RADARS N OF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE FAR NERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT...AS ADDED LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE...BEFORE
A STRONGER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO
TURN TOWARD THE SE...THEREBY ALLOWING THE INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA LATE TUE INTO WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVERALL TEMPS TO
RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS AROUND MID WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF WET WX DEVELOPS GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW OF QUIET AND NEAR SEASONAL
CONDITIONS/TEMPS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN KEYING ON A STRONGER
SFC WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID/SRN PLAINS TRAVERSING
EWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA WELL TO THE E SUN NIGHT...WITH RAIN QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF FROM THE W DURING THE EVENING HRS. COOLER/DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FROM THE N...AS ANOTHER DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS. MODELS
LOOK TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT THOUGH WITH MOVING ANY LINGERING LIGHT
QPF OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA PRIOR TO THE INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUED FLOWING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MIXING...
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WERE APPARENT OVER WESTERN TN AND
NORTHERN MS. THUS HAVE NOTED A RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR KMSL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPO VFR CIGS AT KHSV (BUT BECOMING MVFR EARLY IN
THE EVENING). CIGS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BECOME VFR...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR CRITERIA BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    34  47  30  51 /  10  10   0   0
SHOALS        33  48  30  52 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      33  46  29  50 /  10  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  32  43  27  49 /  10  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   31  45  29  50 /  10  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    31  47  28  49 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 262017
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
217 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE EAST TO 50 IN THE
WEST. COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30 TO 35 RANGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. LIMITED MOISTURE
AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 12Z TRENDS WERE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THIS
ONE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...A
CUTOFF LOW WILL HAVE FORMED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
PART OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WILL BREAK OFF AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT COMES DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PICK UP SOME MOISTURE AND BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR WIDE SPREAD
RAIN TO THE DEEP SOUTH. 12Z PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. DID RAISE
THE POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACH 60 TO 65 JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY
MIXING OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE
REMAINING IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 12 TO 14 KNOTS AND SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     31  49  28  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    32  51  29  54  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  34  53  31  54  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  35  56  33  55  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      34  54  32  54  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  54  32  53  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  35  59  32  56  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        35  59  33  55  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 261822 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1222 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   35  62  34  60  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  36  65  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      35  62  34  59  39 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   39  64  34  60  39 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 261822 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1222 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   35  62  34  60  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  36  65  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      35  62  34  59  39 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   39  64  34  60  39 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 261752
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1152 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED THE SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
HAS PUSHED INTO GEORGIA. A LARGE AREA OF WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS PULLING OFF
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. FOR NOW THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT SOME DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUDS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA
ON THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY
NIGHT...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE...AND INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...IT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY DAYS AS
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO ALABAMA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO
CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICO. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PICK UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY
MIXING OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE
REMAINING IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 12 TO 14 KNOTS AND SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  32  49  29  51 /  10   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    45  32  52  30  53 /  10   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  34  53  32  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  35  56  34  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  35  55  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  34  53  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  51  35  60  34  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  35  59  35  57 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 261745 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1041 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
UNLIKE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS WE`VE EXPERIENCED
24 HOURS AGO...CLOUDY SKIES RULED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS
OF THE LATE MORNING. THIS WAS CAUSED BY POST SYSTEM LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL STATES TO
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE
DAYBREAK...MORE CLOUDS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM OF OUR REGION. A BREAK
IN THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SSE FROM THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THUS SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I65 MAY GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN.

ON A LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION YESTERDAY WAS MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AS IS
SOMETIMES THE CASE IN THE COLDER MONTHS...A NEW SURFACE LOW WAS
FORMING EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IT SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWARD...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF CAUSING NOTABLE SNOWFALL FOR
PARTS OF NE CONUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH QUIETER HERE. A BROAD SCALE NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN HALF OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A PREVAILING NW
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THUS WITH CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 40S. GIVEN
POSSIBLE BREAKS AND/OR A THINNING IN THE CLOUDS OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS...HAVE BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO IN SOME
SPOTS. UPDATES FOR THE AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUED FLOWING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MIXING...
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WERE APPARENT OVER WESTERN TN AND
NORTHERN MS. THUS HAVE NOTED A RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR KMSL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPO VFR CIGS AT KHSV (BUT BECOMING MVFR EARLY IN
THE EVENING). CIGS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BECOME VFR...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR CRITERIA BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261745 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1041 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
UNLIKE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS WE`VE EXPERIENCED
24 HOURS AGO...CLOUDY SKIES RULED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS
OF THE LATE MORNING. THIS WAS CAUSED BY POST SYSTEM LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL STATES TO
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE
DAYBREAK...MORE CLOUDS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM OF OUR REGION. A BREAK
IN THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SSE FROM THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THUS SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I65 MAY GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN.

ON A LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION YESTERDAY WAS MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AS IS
SOMETIMES THE CASE IN THE COLDER MONTHS...A NEW SURFACE LOW WAS
FORMING EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IT SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWARD...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF CAUSING NOTABLE SNOWFALL FOR
PARTS OF NE CONUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH QUIETER HERE. A BROAD SCALE NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN HALF OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A PREVAILING NW
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THUS WITH CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 40S. GIVEN
POSSIBLE BREAKS AND/OR A THINNING IN THE CLOUDS OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS...HAVE BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO IN SOME
SPOTS. UPDATES FOR THE AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUED FLOWING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MIXING...
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WERE APPARENT OVER WESTERN TN AND
NORTHERN MS. THUS HAVE NOTED A RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR KMSL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPO VFR CIGS AT KHSV (BUT BECOMING MVFR EARLY IN
THE EVENING). CIGS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BECOME VFR...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR CRITERIA BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 261641 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1041 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
RAISED HIGH TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARDS A TAD IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNLIKE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS WE`VE EXPERIENCED
24 HOURS AGO...CLOUDY SKIES RULED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS
OF THE LATE MORNING. THIS WAS CAUSED BY POST SYSTEM LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL STATES TO
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE
DAYBREAK...MORE CLOUDS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM OF OUR REGION. A BREAK
IN THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SSE FROM THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THUS SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I65 MAY GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN.

ON A LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION YESTERDAY WAS MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AS IS
SOMETIMES THE CASE IN THE COLDER MONTHS...A NEW SURFACE LOW WAS
FORMING EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IT SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWARD...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF CAUSING NOTABLE SNOWFALL FOR
PARTS OF NE CONUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH QUIETER HERE. A BROAD SCALE NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN HALF OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A PREVAILING NW
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THUS WITH CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 40S. GIVEN
POSSIBLE BREAKS AND/OR A THINNING IN THE CLOUDS OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS...HAVE BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO IN SOME
SPOTS. UPDATES FOR THE AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 508 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE
NEXT 6-8 HOURS WITH IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 12Z-13Z.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE NW UNTIL 19Z-20Z
WHEN WINDS RELAX. THEN, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER
19-20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261641 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1041 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
RAISED HIGH TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARDS A TAD IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNLIKE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS WE`VE EXPERIENCED
24 HOURS AGO...CLOUDY SKIES RULED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS
OF THE LATE MORNING. THIS WAS CAUSED BY POST SYSTEM LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL STATES TO
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE
DAYBREAK...MORE CLOUDS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM OF OUR REGION. A BREAK
IN THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SSE FROM THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THUS SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I65 MAY GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN.

ON A LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION YESTERDAY WAS MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AS IS
SOMETIMES THE CASE IN THE COLDER MONTHS...A NEW SURFACE LOW WAS
FORMING EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IT SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWARD...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF CAUSING NOTABLE SNOWFALL FOR
PARTS OF NE CONUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH QUIETER HERE. A BROAD SCALE NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN HALF OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A PREVAILING NW
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THUS WITH CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 40S. GIVEN
POSSIBLE BREAKS AND/OR A THINNING IN THE CLOUDS OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS...HAVE BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO IN SOME
SPOTS. UPDATES FOR THE AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 508 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE
NEXT 6-8 HOURS WITH IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 12Z-13Z.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE NW UNTIL 19Z-20Z
WHEN WINDS RELAX. THEN, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER
19-20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 261121
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
521 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED THE SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
HAS PUSHED INTO GEORGIA. A LARGE AREA OF WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS PULLING OFF
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. FOR NOW THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT SOME DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUDS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA
ON THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY
NIGHT...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE...AND INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...IT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY DAYS AS
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO ALABAMA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO
CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICO. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PICK UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA. WE COULD SEE A FEW
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NOT EXPECTING AN ACCUMULATION SO DID NOT INCLUDE AT ANY SITE.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
UP TO 22 KTS...THROUGH 21Z OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS...THE WINDS CALM DOWN AND CEILINGS IMPROVE. MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE IN THE CYCLE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  32  49  29  51 /  10   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    45  32  52  30  53 /  10   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  34  53  32  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  35  56  34  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  35  55  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  34  53  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  51  35  60  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  35  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 261108 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
508 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE
NEXT 6-8 HOURS WITH IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 12Z-13Z.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE NW UNTIL 19Z-20Z
WHEN WINDS RELAX. THEN, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER
19-20Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 261108 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
508 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE
NEXT 6-8 HOURS WITH IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 12Z-13Z.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE NW UNTIL 19Z-20Z
WHEN WINDS RELAX. THEN, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER
19-20Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261055
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  39  65  38  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   57  42  64  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      57  44  63  42  57 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   53  35  62  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  36  65  35  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      54  35  62  34  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   55  39  64  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261055
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  39  65  38  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   57  42  64  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      57  44  63  42  57 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   53  35  62  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  36  65  35  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      54  35  62  34  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   55  39  64  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261055
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  39  65  38  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   57  42  64  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      57  44  63  42  57 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   53  35  62  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  36  65  35  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      54  35  62  34  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   55  39  64  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261055
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  39  65  38  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   57  42  64  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      57  44  63  42  57 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   53  35  62  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  36  65  35  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      54  35  62  34  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   55  39  64  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 260937
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED THE SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
HAS PUSHED INTO GEORGIA. A LARGE AREA OF WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS PULLING OFF
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. FOR NOW THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT SOME DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUDS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA
ON THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY
NIGHT...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE...AND INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...IT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY DAYS AS
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO ALABAMA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO
CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICO. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PICK UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS HAVE ENDED TONIGHT...AND OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-19KTS. LOW CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD
WITH MVFR CIGS...AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FOR
TOI AND MGM. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  32  49  29  51 /  10   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    45  32  52  30  53 /  10   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  34  53  32  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  35  56  34  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  35  55  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  34  53  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  51  35  60  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  35  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 260937
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED THE SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
HAS PUSHED INTO GEORGIA. A LARGE AREA OF WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS PULLING OFF
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. FOR NOW THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT SOME DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUDS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA
ON THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY
NIGHT...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE...AND INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...IT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY DAYS AS
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO ALABAMA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO
CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICO. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PICK UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS HAVE ENDED TONIGHT...AND OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-19KTS. LOW CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD
WITH MVFR CIGS...AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FOR
TOI AND MGM. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  32  49  29  51 /  10   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    45  32  52  30  53 /  10   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  34  53  32  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  35  56  34  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  35  55  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  34  53  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  51  35  60  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  35  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 260836 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  34  47  31 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        43  33  46  30 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      41  33  46  29 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  38  32  41  29 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   40  31  45  30 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    40  31  47  29 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260836 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  34  47  31 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        43  33  46  30 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      41  33  46  29 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  38  32  41  29 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   40  31  45  30 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    40  31  47  29 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260836 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  34  47  31 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        43  33  46  30 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      41  33  46  29 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  38  32  41  29 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   40  31  45  30 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    40  31  47  29 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260836
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS. WE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF -SN/DZ THRU
15Z IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST IF
NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY
FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE THRU EARLY
TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C GRADIENT JUST
IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS. SOUNDINGS
HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS GRADIENT) AS A
WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CHC IS MUCH
GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  34  47  31 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        43  33  46  30 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      41  33  46  29 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  38  32  41  29 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   40  31  45  30 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    40  31  47  29 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260836 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  34  47  31 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        43  33  46  30 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      41  33  46  29 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  38  32  41  29 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   40  31  45  30 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    40  31  47  29 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260554
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION AND UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME THIS EVENING...MAINLY WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS (EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STILL BREEZY AND
GUSTY UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES).  STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SFC
HOWEVER. WITH THIS...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AS MIXING BEGINS. 12/DS

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PUBLIC OR MARINE FCSTS REQUIRED THIS
EVENING. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25
KT ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 260554
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION AND UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME THIS EVENING...MAINLY WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS (EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STILL BREEZY AND
GUSTY UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES).  STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SFC
HOWEVER. WITH THIS...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AS MIXING BEGINS. 12/DS

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PUBLIC OR MARINE FCSTS REQUIRED THIS
EVENING. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25
KT ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 260554
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION AND UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME THIS EVENING...MAINLY WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS (EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STILL BREEZY AND
GUSTY UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES).  STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SFC
HOWEVER. WITH THIS...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AS MIXING BEGINS. 12/DS

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PUBLIC OR MARINE FCSTS REQUIRED THIS
EVENING. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25
KT ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 260554
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION AND UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME THIS EVENING...MAINLY WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS (EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STILL BREEZY AND
GUSTY UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES).  STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SFC
HOWEVER. WITH THIS...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AS MIXING BEGINS. 12/DS

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PUBLIC OR MARINE FCSTS REQUIRED THIS
EVENING. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25
KT ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KBMX 260544
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THINGS ARE QUIET THIS EVENING AFTER AN UNUSUAL SITUATION EARLIER
WITH STORMS THAT CONTAINED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY
IN THE 30S AT THAT TIME...BUT A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT CREATED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO
THE SURFACE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS HAVE ENDED TONIGHT...AND OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-19KTS. LOW CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD
WITH MVFR CIGS...AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FOR
TOI AND MGM. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  43  30  50  29 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  44  32  53  30 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  34  55  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  40  48  35  58  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  46  35  55  33 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      39  47  34  55  33 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  50  35  60  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
TROY        41  51  35  60  35 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14









000
FXUS64 KHUN 260443
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 854 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS CENTERED OVER KY WITH CDFNT
MOVING ACROSS THE HUN AREA. EXPECT THE CDFNT TO PUSH OUT OF THE CWA
ARND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD PRODUCE
A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER AS USUAL OUR NERN ZONES/PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
TRAVEL PROBLEMS BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICKS SPOTS ON ROADS
MONDAY MRNG...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260443
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 854 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS CENTERED OVER KY WITH CDFNT
MOVING ACROSS THE HUN AREA. EXPECT THE CDFNT TO PUSH OUT OF THE CWA
ARND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD PRODUCE
A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER AS USUAL OUR NERN ZONES/PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
TRAVEL PROBLEMS BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICKS SPOTS ON ROADS
MONDAY MRNG...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 260322
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
922 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THINGS ARE QUIET THIS EVENING AFTER AN UNUSUAL SITUATION EARLIER
WITH STORMS THAT CONTAINED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY
IN THE 30S AT THAT TIME...BUT A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT CREATED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO
THE SURFACE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS. THIS THREAT WILL END BY 03Z...AND CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM AT
ANY ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF RAIN ACTIVITY...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE.  HAVE TIMED OUT RAIN ACTIVITY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS USING TEMPOS FOR THE LAST BAND TO COME
THROUGH TONIGHT.  BEHIND THAT LINE...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. LOWER CIGS COULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE
IN FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL ADD IN MVFR CIGS FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS UPSTREAM. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS DIMINISH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  43  30  50  29 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  44  32  53  30 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  34  55  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  40  48  35  58  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  46  35  55  33 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      39  47  34  55  33 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  50  35  60  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
TROY        41  51  35  60  35 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14






000
FXUS64 KBMX 260322
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
922 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THINGS ARE QUIET THIS EVENING AFTER AN UNUSUAL SITUATION EARLIER
WITH STORMS THAT CONTAINED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY
IN THE 30S AT THAT TIME...BUT A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT CREATED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO
THE SURFACE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS. THIS THREAT WILL END BY 03Z...AND CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM AT
ANY ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF RAIN ACTIVITY...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE.  HAVE TIMED OUT RAIN ACTIVITY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS USING TEMPOS FOR THE LAST BAND TO COME
THROUGH TONIGHT.  BEHIND THAT LINE...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. LOWER CIGS COULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE
IN FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL ADD IN MVFR CIGS FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS UPSTREAM. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS DIMINISH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  43  30  50  29 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  44  32  53  30 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  34  55  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  40  48  35  58  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  46  35  55  33 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      39  47  34  55  33 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  50  35  60  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
TROY        41  51  35  60  35 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14






000
FXUS64 KBMX 260322
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
922 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THINGS ARE QUIET THIS EVENING AFTER AN UNUSUAL SITUATION EARLIER
WITH STORMS THAT CONTAINED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY
IN THE 30S AT THAT TIME...BUT A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT CREATED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO
THE SURFACE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS. THIS THREAT WILL END BY 03Z...AND CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM AT
ANY ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF RAIN ACTIVITY...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE.  HAVE TIMED OUT RAIN ACTIVITY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS USING TEMPOS FOR THE LAST BAND TO COME
THROUGH TONIGHT.  BEHIND THAT LINE...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. LOWER CIGS COULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE
IN FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL ADD IN MVFR CIGS FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS UPSTREAM. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS DIMINISH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  43  30  50  29 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  44  32  53  30 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  34  55  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  40  48  35  58  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  46  35  55  33 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      39  47  34  55  33 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  50  35  60  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
TROY        41  51  35  60  35 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14






000
FXUS64 KBMX 260322
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
922 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THINGS ARE QUIET THIS EVENING AFTER AN UNUSUAL SITUATION EARLIER
WITH STORMS THAT CONTAINED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY
IN THE 30S AT THAT TIME...BUT A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT CREATED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO
THE SURFACE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS. THIS THREAT WILL END BY 03Z...AND CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM AT
ANY ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF RAIN ACTIVITY...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE.  HAVE TIMED OUT RAIN ACTIVITY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS USING TEMPOS FOR THE LAST BAND TO COME
THROUGH TONIGHT.  BEHIND THAT LINE...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. LOWER CIGS COULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE
IN FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL ADD IN MVFR CIGS FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS UPSTREAM. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS DIMINISH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  43  30  50  29 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  44  32  53  30 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  34  55  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  40  48  35  58  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  46  35  55  33 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      39  47  34  55  33 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  50  35  60  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
TROY        41  51  35  60  35 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14






000
FXUS64 KHUN 260254
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
854 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS...REMOVED THUNDER AND TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE KEPT
REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS AS IS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS CENTERED OVER KY WITH CDFNT
MOVING ACROSS THE HUN AREA. EXPECT THE CDFNT TO PUSH OUT OF THE CWA
ARND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD PRODUCE
A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER AS USUAL OUR NERN ZONES/PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
TRAVEL PROBLEMS BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICKS SPOTS ON ROADS
MONDAY MRNG...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW (ARND MINUS 25 C) CENTERED OVER
WRN KY/TN MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW -TSRA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF -TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN
TAFS. A CDFNT NOW OVER WRN TN SHOULD PASS THRU THE TAF SITES BY 06Z.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AFTER 06Z WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z AND ENDING AS -SN/FLURRIES BY
15Z. ATTM LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU 05Z. BETWEEN 05Z AND 20Z MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260254
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
854 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS...REMOVED THUNDER AND TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE KEPT
REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS AS IS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS CENTERED OVER KY WITH CDFNT
MOVING ACROSS THE HUN AREA. EXPECT THE CDFNT TO PUSH OUT OF THE CWA
ARND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD PRODUCE
A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER AS USUAL OUR NERN ZONES/PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
TRAVEL PROBLEMS BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICKS SPOTS ON ROADS
MONDAY MRNG...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW (ARND MINUS 25 C) CENTERED OVER
WRN KY/TN MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW -TSRA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF -TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN
TAFS. A CDFNT NOW OVER WRN TN SHOULD PASS THRU THE TAF SITES BY 06Z.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AFTER 06Z WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z AND ENDING AS -SN/FLURRIES BY
15Z. ATTM LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU 05Z. BETWEEN 05Z AND 20Z MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260254
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
854 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS...REMOVED THUNDER AND TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE KEPT
REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS AS IS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS CENTERED OVER KY WITH CDFNT
MOVING ACROSS THE HUN AREA. EXPECT THE CDFNT TO PUSH OUT OF THE CWA
ARND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD PRODUCE
A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER AS USUAL OUR NERN ZONES/PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
TRAVEL PROBLEMS BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICKS SPOTS ON ROADS
MONDAY MRNG...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW (ARND MINUS 25 C) CENTERED OVER
WRN KY/TN MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW -TSRA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF -TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN
TAFS. A CDFNT NOW OVER WRN TN SHOULD PASS THRU THE TAF SITES BY 06Z.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AFTER 06Z WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z AND ENDING AS -SN/FLURRIES BY
15Z. ATTM LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU 05Z. BETWEEN 05Z AND 20Z MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260254
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
854 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS...REMOVED THUNDER AND TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE KEPT
REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS AS IS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS CENTERED OVER KY WITH CDFNT
MOVING ACROSS THE HUN AREA. EXPECT THE CDFNT TO PUSH OUT OF THE CWA
ARND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD PRODUCE
A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER AS USUAL OUR NERN ZONES/PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
TRAVEL PROBLEMS BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICKS SPOTS ON ROADS
MONDAY MRNG...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW (ARND MINUS 25 C) CENTERED OVER
WRN KY/TN MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW -TSRA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF -TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN
TAFS. A CDFNT NOW OVER WRN TN SHOULD PASS THRU THE TAF SITES BY 06Z.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AFTER 06Z WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z AND ENDING AS -SN/FLURRIES BY
15Z. ATTM LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU 05Z. BETWEEN 05Z AND 20Z MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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