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000
FXUS64 KBMX 271816
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
116 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

After performing a surface analysis this morning, we`ve got
several features of note to talk about across Central Alabama.
First, lots of mesoscale boundaries leftover from yesterday`s
convection have been noted on visible satellite and radar. Those
boundaries will help to trigger convection once again this
afternoon once initial storms develop. Two other large-scale
features to note as well - first a large outflow boundary has
pushed into northeastern Mississippi that was left over from an
MCS that was present over Central Arkansas around midnight last
night. That outflow is already developing numerous storms across
northern Mississippi. Also of note is the line of storms that has
developed over northern Tennessee this morning. That has also
developed on what looks to be an old outflow boundary that quickly
raced southward from the Ohio River Valley, near where the old
surface trough/remnant surface front is currently located.

Both of those features will be closely monitored through the day.
Forward Propagating Corfidi Vectors actually indicate that the
line in Tennessee will likely push into Alabama late this
afternoon. With the upper ridge to our west and northerly flow
aloft over Central Alabama, we will likely see all of the current
activity begin to push southward over the next few hours. With
that in mind and looking at microburst parameters, we`ll likely
see strong storms with some isolated severe storms late this
afternoon and into the evening. Damaging winds would be the
primary hazard in the storms today. If a large line of storms
develops into an MCS where a large cold pool can also develop, the
threat for damaging winds will most certainly increase. We`re
currently in the process of adding in a Limited Threat of severe
storms generally along and north of the I-20 corridor for this
afternoon and early evening.

Localized flooding will also be an issue today, especially where
PWATS are well over 2 inches across northwestern Alabama, based on
RAP analysis. Storms initially may not move very much, and could
drop a couple of inches of rain per hour in some locations.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are expected overall through the forecast period.
Main uncertainty is with the chance of widespread thunderstorms
pushing southward through Central Alabama late this afternoon and
into the evening hours. For now, enough confidence remains in the
forecast to leave in TEMPO TSRA late this afternoon and into the
early evening for KBHM, KTCL, and KEET. Amendments will be likely
based on where storms begin to form and propagate through the
evening hours. Have also kept VCTS in the forecast through later
in the evening with lingering storms still likely.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected today with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase today into
Tuesday as a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some
isolated to scattered rain activity will remain possible across
the southeast on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions
expected across the north. No fire weather concerns are expected
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  88  66  90  63 /  60  40  20  10  10
Anniston    71  87  67  90  64 /  60  50  20  10  10
Birmingham  73  89  70  91  67 /  60  50  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  73  88  69  91  67 /  60  60  20  10  10
Calera      72  88  69  90  68 /  60  60  30  10  10
Auburn      72  87  71  89  70 /  40  70  40  20  10
Montgomery  74  90  72  92  70 /  40  70  40  20  10
Troy        73  89  71  90  69 /  40  70  50  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS64 KMOB 271756 AAB
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1256 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...See updated information below.

&&

.UPDATE...The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed.
/13

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
area through the afternoon with MVFR/IFR conditions possible in and
around thunderstorms. VFR conditions will prevail overnight once
thunderstorms dissipate. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...An upper disturbance noodling around over the area
today will bring an increase in the current shra/tsra activity
currently over Southeast Mississippi. Local drops in cigs, visbys to
low end mvfr levels likely in the stronger storms. Tonight, fog
development is likely, especially over areas that receive rains
today. Am expecting visbys to remain above MVFR minimums.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 516 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...
For today into this evening, a shortwave continues to meander around
over the north-central Gulf coast, bringing a another round of
showers and thunderstorms. With ML-CAPEs in the 1500-2000J/kg range,
enough instability will be present for strong to severe storms. Big
limiter for any organized severe weather will be wind shear.
Helicities are basically non-existent. Any shear will be localized
with a Gulf breeze expected to move inland this afternoon along with
any outflows generated. Guidance is advertising precip H20 values of
2-2.1" today, and with local wet downburst values in the upper
moderate category, damaging downbursts are possible this
afternoon/evening. For temps, with increased cloud cover from the
TSRA, a cooler day than yesterday is expected, but am still
expecting above seasonal highs today (low to mid 90s).

Tonight, as another shortwave swings around an upper ridge
stretching west over the Southern Plains, and todays energy moving
off, any upper support moves off, with the precip moving offshore as
a land breeze sets up. Overnight lows in  the low to mid 70s
expected, with high moisture levels and cloud cover limiting
radiational cooling.

/16

SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...
A vigorous shortwave trough, embedded in the northwesterly flow
aloft, will push a cold front into the Southeast Tuesday morning.
The front may reach the US-84 corridor as early as lunchtime, but
will likely become nearly stationary as expected convective
development reinforces the boundary.  The latest high-resolution
models suggest that the greatest odds of seeing widespread
convective development will occur around mid-afternoon and continue
into the evening.

Low-level moisture remains plentiful over the region, with
precipitable water values around 2.25 inches anticipated in vicinity
of the boundary.  Modified forecast soundings by Tuesday afternoon
will be characterized by low-level lapse rates between 6 and 7 C/km,
with MLCAPEs approaching 2000 J/kg.  Given the overall environment,
thunderstorms, some capable of producing strong wind gusts, will be
possible.  The overall risk of severe thunderstorms appears to be
limited by the lack of deep layer shear in the lowest 3 km.  The
exception could be in vicinity of the surface front, where storm
scale organization could be enhanced.  Heavy rainfall may be seen
with some of the stronger thunderstorms.

The front will likely vacillate toward the coast Tuesday night,
continuing the possibility of seeing showers and thunderstorms.
Convective coverage will likely decrease a bit due to diminishing
instability after sunset.

More showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday as the
front wanders north of the forecast area.  Overall, I suspect that
showers and thunderstorms will be more focused to areas in and
around the boundary as slightly drier air attempts to work its way
into Central Mississippi and Alabama.  Some of this drier air should
work its way south and east toward the IH-65 corridor, resulting in
only an isolated smattering of convection for most areas by
Wednesday night. /02/

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...
A return to a more typical summertime convective regime is
anticipated through the upcoming weekend, despite the continued
presence of a longwave trough axis in the upper atmosphere. Limiting
factors for convective coverage will likely be lower precipitable
water values and a greater reliance on mesoscale forcing to generate
convection.  There is some indication that another bit of energy
could rotate through the longwave trough this weekend.  Assuming
this happens, look for increased odds of seeing showers and
thunderstorms as another cold front moves into the Southeast.  /02/

MARINE...
A surface trough near the northern Gulf Coast will bring a
synoptically light wind regime to the area, with our onshore
afternoon Gulf Breeze/overnight offshore land breeze dominating. A
surface ridge will build over the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday on,
bringing a general southwesterly flow to area coastal waters for the
latter half of the week into the weekend.

/16

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob



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000
FXUS64 KHUN 271737 AAD
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1237 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 1232 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016)
A defined and consistent line of showers and thunderstorms have
developed along the MS/AL border along with additional scattered
activity further west in northern MS. This is mainly occurring along
one of the convergence boundaries mentioned in the early discussion,
which extends from Nashville southwest into northern MS.

This activity will continue and additional scattered storms will
develop between now and 2 pm across northern Alabama and Southern
Middle TN. In addition, stronger forcing and associated activity
along a prefrontal trough axis will continue to push south and
enhance activity east of I-65 this afternoon. Increasing chance of
rain to 80 percent in northwest AL now through the afternoon hours
and after 2 pm further east. Stronger storms this afternoon may
produce wind gusts to around 50 mph, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. Still cannot rule out an isolated severe storm producing
winds gusts around 60 mph.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
For 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail outside of any thunderstorm
activity through the TAF period. Boundaries are currently developing
showers and thunderstorms and will continue to do so into this
evening. A stratus deck or fog development is possible toward
sunrise, however due to low confidence at this time, left it out
of the TAFs.

JMS

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271732 AAC
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1232 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...to raise chance of rain based on current trends and
expected conditions this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A defined and consistent line of showers and thunderstorms have
developed along the MS/AL border along with additional scattered
activity further west in northern MS. This is mainly occurring along
one of the convergence boundaries mentioned in the early discussion,
which extends from Nashville southwest into northern MS.

This activity will continue and additional scattered storms will
develop between now and 2 pm across northern Alabama and Southern
Middle TN. In addition, stronger forcing and associated activity
along a prefrontal trough axis will continue to push south and
enhance activity east of I-65 this afternoon. Increasing chance of
rain to 80 percent in northwest AL now through the afternoon hours
and after 2 pm further east. Stronger storms this afternoon may
produce wind gusts to around 50 mph, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. Still cannot rule out an isolated severe storm producing
winds gusts around 60 mph.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 626 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016)
For 12Z TAFs: A weak prefrontal boundary now along the MS river will
continue to move east today increasing the chc shra/tsra over the
taf sites. The boundary should be out of the taf sites between 19z and
20z. Pcpn will linger behind the boundary but will finally begin to
taper off arnd 00z. Except for mvfr ceiling in tsra, expect mainly
vfr ceilings thru the fcst period.

007

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271732 AAC
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1232 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...to raise chance of rain based on current trends and
expected conditions this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A defined and consistent line of showers and thunderstorms have
developed along the MS/AL border along with additional scattered
activity further west in northern MS. This is mainly occurring along
one of the convergence boundaries mentioned in the early discussion,
which extends from Nashville southwest into northern MS.

This activity will continue and additional scattered storms will
develop between now and 2 pm across northern Alabama and Southern
Middle TN. In addition, stronger forcing and associated activity
along a prefrontal trough axis will continue to push south and
enhance activity east of I-65 this afternoon. Increasing chance of
rain to 80 percent in northwest AL now through the afternoon hours
and after 2 pm further east. Stronger storms this afternoon may
produce wind gusts to around 50 mph, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. Still cannot rule out an isolated severe storm producing
winds gusts around 60 mph.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 626 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016)
For 12Z TAFs: A weak prefrontal boundary now along the MS river will
continue to move east today increasing the chc shra/tsra over the
taf sites. The boundary should be out of the taf sites between 19z and
20z. Pcpn will linger behind the boundary but will finally begin to
taper off arnd 00z. Except for mvfr ceiling in tsra, expect mainly
vfr ceilings thru the fcst period.

007

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271710
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1210 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Mesoscale Update and Early Afternoon Forecast Update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

After performing a surface analysis this morning, we`ve got
several features of note to talk about across Central Alabama.
First, lots of mesoscale boundaries leftover from yesterday`s
convection have been noted on visible satellite and radar. Those
boundaries will help to trigger convection once again this
afternoon once initial storms develop. Two other large-scale
features to note as well - first a large outflow boundary has
pushed into northeastern Mississippi that was left over from an
MCS that was present over Central Arkansas around midnight last
night. That outflow is already developing numerous storms across
northern Mississippi. Also of note is the line of storms that has
developed over northern Tennessee this morning. That has also
developed on what looks to be an old outflow boundary that quickly
raced southward from the Ohio River Valley, near where the old
surface trough/remnant surface front is currently located.

Both of those features will be closely monitored through the day.
Forward Propagating Corfidi Vectors actually indicate that the
line in Tennessee will likely push into Alabama late this
afternoon. With the upper ridge to our west and northerly flow
aloft over Central Alabama, we will likely see all of the current
activity begin to push southward over the next few hours. With
that in mind and looking at microburst parameters, we`ll likely
see strong storms with some isolated severe storms late this
afternoon and into the evening. Damaging winds would be the
primary hazard in the storms today. If a large line of storms
develops into an MCS where a large cold pool can also develop, the
threat for damaging winds will most certainly increase. We`re
currently in the process of adding in a Limited Threat of severe
storms generally along and north of the I-20 corridor for this
afternoon and early evening.

Localized flooding will also be an issue today, especially where
PWATS are well over 2 inches across northwestern Alabama, based on
RAP analysis. Storms initially may not move very much, and could
drop a couple of inches of rain per hour in some locations.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered to numerous showers/storms expected this afternoon as a
front approaches from the north. The best rain chances will be
across the northern portion of the forecast area. Have included an
initial best timing of TS for the northern terminals, and
continued VCTS wording for the entire afternoon and at all TAF
sites. Overall coverage should decrease as the evening progresses,
with a few showers/storms possibly lingering into the night. Winds
will shift to the N late afternoon/evening in most locations.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected today with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase today into
Tuesday as a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some
isolated to scattered rain activity will remain possible across
the southeast on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions
expected across the north. No fire weather concerns are expected
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  71  88  67  90 /  60  60  40  20  10
Anniston    91  71  88  68  90 /  60  60  50  20  10
Birmingham  94  74  89  70  90 /  60  60  50  20  10
Tuscaloosa  96  73  89  70  92 /  60  60  60  20  10
Calera      94  73  89  70  90 /  60  60  60  20  10
Auburn      92  73  88  71  89 /  40  40  70  40  20
Montgomery  96  74  91  72  92 /  40  40  70  40  20
Troy        94  73  90  72  89 /  40  40  70  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271710
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1210 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Mesoscale Update and Early Afternoon Forecast Update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

After performing a surface analysis this morning, we`ve got
several features of note to talk about across Central Alabama.
First, lots of mesoscale boundaries leftover from yesterday`s
convection have been noted on visible satellite and radar. Those
boundaries will help to trigger convection once again this
afternoon once initial storms develop. Two other large-scale
features to note as well - first a large outflow boundary has
pushed into northeastern Mississippi that was left over from an
MCS that was present over Central Arkansas around midnight last
night. That outflow is already developing numerous storms across
northern Mississippi. Also of note is the line of storms that has
developed over northern Tennessee this morning. That has also
developed on what looks to be an old outflow boundary that quickly
raced southward from the Ohio River Valley, near where the old
surface trough/remnant surface front is currently located.

Both of those features will be closely monitored through the day.
Forward Propagating Corfidi Vectors actually indicate that the
line in Tennessee will likely push into Alabama late this
afternoon. With the upper ridge to our west and northerly flow
aloft over Central Alabama, we will likely see all of the current
activity begin to push southward over the next few hours. With
that in mind and looking at microburst parameters, we`ll likely
see strong storms with some isolated severe storms late this
afternoon and into the evening. Damaging winds would be the
primary hazard in the storms today. If a large line of storms
develops into an MCS where a large cold pool can also develop, the
threat for damaging winds will most certainly increase. We`re
currently in the process of adding in a Limited Threat of severe
storms generally along and north of the I-20 corridor for this
afternoon and early evening.

Localized flooding will also be an issue today, especially where
PWATS are well over 2 inches across northwestern Alabama, based on
RAP analysis. Storms initially may not move very much, and could
drop a couple of inches of rain per hour in some locations.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered to numerous showers/storms expected this afternoon as a
front approaches from the north. The best rain chances will be
across the northern portion of the forecast area. Have included an
initial best timing of TS for the northern terminals, and
continued VCTS wording for the entire afternoon and at all TAF
sites. Overall coverage should decrease as the evening progresses,
with a few showers/storms possibly lingering into the night. Winds
will shift to the N late afternoon/evening in most locations.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected today with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase today into
Tuesday as a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some
isolated to scattered rain activity will remain possible across
the southeast on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions
expected across the north. No fire weather concerns are expected
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  71  88  67  90 /  60  60  40  20  10
Anniston    91  71  88  68  90 /  60  60  50  20  10
Birmingham  94  74  89  70  90 /  60  60  50  20  10
Tuscaloosa  96  73  89  70  92 /  60  60  60  20  10
Calera      94  73  89  70  90 /  60  60  60  20  10
Auburn      92  73  88  71  89 /  40  40  70  40  20
Montgomery  96  74  91  72  92 /  40  40  70  40  20
Troy        94  73  90  72  89 /  40  40  70  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271533 AAB
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1033 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MORNING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Plenty to look at today on satellite imagery (especially water vapor
imagery)...as several prefrontal trough axis are evident over the
southeast this morning. These are all south of a stronger cold front,
which is moving southeast into southern Iowa and eastern Michigan.
One of which extends from nashville (TN) southwest into northwestern
MS. The second trough axis extends from southern Missouri east into
Kentucky. In fact, in Kentucky a complex of strong thunderstorms is
currently developing and pushing south quickly into northern TN.

Mesoscale models forecast this second trough axis and convection
along it to continue to push south through the day. Outflow/forcing
from this boundary will likely intersect with the boundary extending
from Nashville southwest during the early to mid afternoon hours. A
better instability axis will setup over northern Alabama and Southern
Middle Tennessee due to better insolation this morning and pooling of
higher boundary layer moisture. Based on current temperatures raised
highs a tad in northwestern Alabama into the lower 90s. This combined
with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s could allow heat index
values to climb to between 100 and 103 degrees there.

Based on 7 AM soundings, our convective temperatures are in the
upper 80s to around 90, so we will likely see a fairly widespread
cumulus deck begin to develop over much of northern Alabama and
Southern Middle TN between now and noon. Expect much of the area to
be mostly cloudy by 11 AM or noon. Could see some isolated to widely
scattered showers/storms between now and noon. However, the best
coverage and strongest intensity is expected to occur between 1 pm
and 7 PM.

Forecast soundings do show DCAPE values between 400 and 900 J/kg
late this morning into the afternoon hours. Along with a weak 20-30
kt 850 jet developing later this afternoon and forecast CAPE values
between 1500 and 3000 J/KG, strong storms look likely with wind gusts
to around 50 mph, very heavy rainfall rates, and frequent lightning
being the main threats. Couldn`t rule out an isolated severe storm
given all these parameters, but believe most storms will remain
strong in nature.

Will need to watch for any backbuilding/training of storms later this
afternoon as coverage of storms increase, since PW values are
forecast to climb to over 2 inches. However, models do show a fairly
good northerly to westerly component of the winds (both at 850 mb and
500 mb) relative to the evolving convergence boundary, so not
extremely concerned about backbuilding/training of storms.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 626 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016)
For 12Z TAFs: A weak prefrontal boundary now along the MS river will
continue to move east today increasing the chc shra/tsra over the
taf sites. The boundary should be out of the taf sites between 19z and
20z. Pcpn will linger behind the boundary but will finally begin to
taper off arnd 00z. Except for mvfr ceiling in tsra, expect mainly
vfr ceilings thru the fcst period.

007

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271157
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
657 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and tonight.

Water Vapor imagery shows a trough/low pressure center over Ontario
with an impulse moving into North Dakota. This impulse will merge
into the base of the trough and result in the trough digging
southward across the Great Lakes region. A surface cool front,
currently stretching from Indiana back into Kansas/Oklahoma, will
in turn be pushed southward toward the Tennessee Valley later
today. Rain chances will increase thru the day as the front
approaches. Although scattered convection is possible area wide,
more numerous showers/storms are likely across the northern
counties closer to the front. The majority of the activity should
dissipate before midnight, but will carry some 20 PoPs thru the
overnight hours as a few showers/storms could linger later,
especially with the front in the area.

There really isn`t any upper air support with this frontal system,
so organized convection, and therefore any widespread severe
weather, is not anticipated. However, the atmospheric conditions
will remain very similar to the past couple of days...high PWs,
steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient instability. So, some
strong storms will be possible, primarily during the peak heating of
the day and into the early evening. Here again, the main threat
would be localized strong/damaging wind gusts. With PWATs forecast
to be near 2.0 inches, storms will be capable of very heavy
downpours. While most locations can handle quite a bit of rain (due
to the prolonged dry period), any training of storms over the same
area(s) could lead to some localized minor flooding issues.

Temperatures today will generally be a couple degrees cooler than
yesterday. However, due to dew points still in the low 70s, heat
indices could rise to or just above 100 degrees in a few locations
this afternoon. As of now, it looks like they should stay below heat
advisory criteria of 105 degrees.

19

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Sunday.

The surface frontal system is expected to move across portions of
Central Alabama on Tuesday with increased rain chances during the
day. This should, except for the far southern counties, keep our
highs out of the 90s. With precipitation possible earlier in the
day, that will likely affect our instability potential for most.
We will have forcing from the front though, and could have a few
strong storms. However, we should be removed from the main energy
with this system. Some guidance is trying to bring the front
through the CWA. However, the upper flow suggests that it could
likely stall out across the southern half of Central Alabama as
the main upper low opens up over the Northeast U.S. and Eastern
Canada, with a broad trough lingering across the eastern part of
CONUS. Low pops across the southern half of the area will remain
for Wednesday due to a possible lingering boundary. The stalled
boundary could have some minor movement on Thursday, with only low
rain chances south. By Friday, rain chances will begin to move
back northward across more of the CWA as the boundary is expected
to push back northward. Another surface front is forecasted to
move southward toward Alabama and increase rain chances as we move
into next weekend.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered to numerous showers/storms expected this afternoon as a
front approaches from the north. The best rain chances will be
across the northern portion of the forecast area. Have included an
initial best timing of TS for the northern terminals, and
continued VCTS wording for the entire afternoon and at all TAF
sites. Overall coverage should decrease as the evening progresses,
with a few showers/storms possibly lingering into the night. Winds
will shift to the N late afternoon/evening in most locations.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected today with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase today into
Tuesday as a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some
isolated to scattered rain activity will remain possible across
the southeast on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions
expected across the north. No fire weather concerns are expected
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  71  88  67  90 /  60  40  40  20  10
Anniston    91  71  88  68  90 /  50  50  50  20  10
Birmingham  93  74  89  70  90 /  50  50  50  20  10
Tuscaloosa  94  73  89  70  92 /  50  50  60  20  10
Calera      93  73  89  70  90 /  50  50  60  20  10
Auburn      92  73  88  71  89 /  40  50  70  40  20
Montgomery  96  74  91  72  92 /  40  50  70  40  20
Troy        94  73  90  72  89 /  40  40  70  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271157
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
657 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and tonight.

Water Vapor imagery shows a trough/low pressure center over Ontario
with an impulse moving into North Dakota. This impulse will merge
into the base of the trough and result in the trough digging
southward across the Great Lakes region. A surface cool front,
currently stretching from Indiana back into Kansas/Oklahoma, will
in turn be pushed southward toward the Tennessee Valley later
today. Rain chances will increase thru the day as the front
approaches. Although scattered convection is possible area wide,
more numerous showers/storms are likely across the northern
counties closer to the front. The majority of the activity should
dissipate before midnight, but will carry some 20 PoPs thru the
overnight hours as a few showers/storms could linger later,
especially with the front in the area.

There really isn`t any upper air support with this frontal system,
so organized convection, and therefore any widespread severe
weather, is not anticipated. However, the atmospheric conditions
will remain very similar to the past couple of days...high PWs,
steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient instability. So, some
strong storms will be possible, primarily during the peak heating of
the day and into the early evening. Here again, the main threat
would be localized strong/damaging wind gusts. With PWATs forecast
to be near 2.0 inches, storms will be capable of very heavy
downpours. While most locations can handle quite a bit of rain (due
to the prolonged dry period), any training of storms over the same
area(s) could lead to some localized minor flooding issues.

Temperatures today will generally be a couple degrees cooler than
yesterday. However, due to dew points still in the low 70s, heat
indices could rise to or just above 100 degrees in a few locations
this afternoon. As of now, it looks like they should stay below heat
advisory criteria of 105 degrees.

19

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Sunday.

The surface frontal system is expected to move across portions of
Central Alabama on Tuesday with increased rain chances during the
day. This should, except for the far southern counties, keep our
highs out of the 90s. With precipitation possible earlier in the
day, that will likely affect our instability potential for most.
We will have forcing from the front though, and could have a few
strong storms. However, we should be removed from the main energy
with this system. Some guidance is trying to bring the front
through the CWA. However, the upper flow suggests that it could
likely stall out across the southern half of Central Alabama as
the main upper low opens up over the Northeast U.S. and Eastern
Canada, with a broad trough lingering across the eastern part of
CONUS. Low pops across the southern half of the area will remain
for Wednesday due to a possible lingering boundary. The stalled
boundary could have some minor movement on Thursday, with only low
rain chances south. By Friday, rain chances will begin to move
back northward across more of the CWA as the boundary is expected
to push back northward. Another surface front is forecasted to
move southward toward Alabama and increase rain chances as we move
into next weekend.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered to numerous showers/storms expected this afternoon as a
front approaches from the north. The best rain chances will be
across the northern portion of the forecast area. Have included an
initial best timing of TS for the northern terminals, and
continued VCTS wording for the entire afternoon and at all TAF
sites. Overall coverage should decrease as the evening progresses,
with a few showers/storms possibly lingering into the night. Winds
will shift to the N late afternoon/evening in most locations.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected today with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase today into
Tuesday as a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some
isolated to scattered rain activity will remain possible across
the southeast on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions
expected across the north. No fire weather concerns are expected
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  71  88  67  90 /  60  40  40  20  10
Anniston    91  71  88  68  90 /  50  50  50  20  10
Birmingham  93  74  89  70  90 /  50  50  50  20  10
Tuscaloosa  94  73  89  70  92 /  50  50  60  20  10
Calera      93  73  89  70  90 /  50  50  60  20  10
Auburn      92  73  88  71  89 /  40  50  70  40  20
Montgomery  96  74  91  72  92 /  40  50  70  40  20
Troy        94  73  90  72  89 /  40  40  70  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271126
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
626 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 238 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016)
A fairly complex sfc map early this mrng across the ern 1/2 of the
country. The main sfc features that will affect the TN Valley will
be a couple of cdfnts now over the midwest. The first cdfnt or
prefrontal trof extends across KS/MO and into the Great Lakes. This
boundary will begin to affect NW AL arnd 15z this mrng and then move
across the rest of the cwa by the aftn. This will likely be our best
chc of pcpn for much of the upcoming work week. As for severe wx, PW`s
are arnd 2 inches with low level shear values very low. Also model
soundings were not showing any good mid level drying. Thus expect
heavy downpours with some localized flooding along with wind gusts
arnd 40 mph. Since freezing/wet bulb zero levels are arnd 14000 ft,
hail does not look that good.

By tonight the 1st front will be out of the cwa with pcpn tapering
off. However the 2nd front will approach the area by Tuesday with
another chc of shra/tsra. Attm the NAM does not show much if any
pcpn on Tuesday while the ECMWF/GFS keeps a chc of pcpn thru the
aftn. For now will go with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF and keep a
low pop in thru 00z. After 00z on Tuesday will end the chc of pcpn.
The threat of svr wx looks very low on Tuesday.

Wednesday/Thursday will be dry and less humid along with a little
cooler temps. Aftn highs will be between 85 and 90 with dewpoints
arnd 60. Not too bad for the end of June.

Friday, both the ECMWF/GFS were not showing much pcpn in the their
QPF fields. However the Super blend model does show a low chc of
shra/tsra on Friday, probably due to a weak cdfnt approaching the
area. Went ahead and kept the low pops in the grids to match with
surrounding offices.

Saturday/Sunday, this period looks like a better chc of pcpn due to a
few weak upper disturbances and a stalled cdfnt just north of the TN
Valley.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
For 12Z TAFs: A weak prefrontal boundary now along the MS river will
continue to move east today increasing the chc shra/tsra over the
taf sites. The boundary should be out of the taf sites between 19z and
20z. Pcpn will linger behind the boundary but will finally begin to
taper off arnd 00z. Except for mvfr ceiling in tsra, expect mainly
vfr ceilings thru the fcst period.

007

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271126
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
626 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 238 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016)
A fairly complex sfc map early this mrng across the ern 1/2 of the
country. The main sfc features that will affect the TN Valley will
be a couple of cdfnts now over the midwest. The first cdfnt or
prefrontal trof extends across KS/MO and into the Great Lakes. This
boundary will begin to affect NW AL arnd 15z this mrng and then move
across the rest of the cwa by the aftn. This will likely be our best
chc of pcpn for much of the upcoming work week. As for severe wx, PW`s
are arnd 2 inches with low level shear values very low. Also model
soundings were not showing any good mid level drying. Thus expect
heavy downpours with some localized flooding along with wind gusts
arnd 40 mph. Since freezing/wet bulb zero levels are arnd 14000 ft,
hail does not look that good.

By tonight the 1st front will be out of the cwa with pcpn tapering
off. However the 2nd front will approach the area by Tuesday with
another chc of shra/tsra. Attm the NAM does not show much if any
pcpn on Tuesday while the ECMWF/GFS keeps a chc of pcpn thru the
aftn. For now will go with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF and keep a
low pop in thru 00z. After 00z on Tuesday will end the chc of pcpn.
The threat of svr wx looks very low on Tuesday.

Wednesday/Thursday will be dry and less humid along with a little
cooler temps. Aftn highs will be between 85 and 90 with dewpoints
arnd 60. Not too bad for the end of June.

Friday, both the ECMWF/GFS were not showing much pcpn in the their
QPF fields. However the Super blend model does show a low chc of
shra/tsra on Friday, probably due to a weak cdfnt approaching the
area. Went ahead and kept the low pops in the grids to match with
surrounding offices.

Saturday/Sunday, this period looks like a better chc of pcpn due to a
few weak upper disturbances and a stalled cdfnt just north of the TN
Valley.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
For 12Z TAFs: A weak prefrontal boundary now along the MS river will
continue to move east today increasing the chc shra/tsra over the
taf sites. The boundary should be out of the taf sites between 19z and
20z. Pcpn will linger behind the boundary but will finally begin to
taper off arnd 00z. Except for mvfr ceiling in tsra, expect mainly
vfr ceilings thru the fcst period.

007

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271121
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
621 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...An upper disturbance noodling around over the area
today will bring an increase in the current shra/tsra activity
currently over Southeast Mississippi. Local drops in cigs, visbys to
low end mvfr levels likely in the stronger storms. Tonight, fog
development is likely, especially over areas that receive rains
today. Am expecting visbys to remain above MVFR minimums.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 516 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...
For today into this evening, a shortwave continues to meander around
over the north-central Gulf coast, bringing a another round of
showers and thunderstorms. With ML-CAPEs in the 1500-2000J/kg range,
enough instability will be present for strong to severe storms. Big
limiter for any organized severe weather will be wind shear.
Helicities are basically non-existent. Any shear will be localized
with a Gulf breeze expected to move inland this afternoon along with
any outflows generated. Guidance is advertising precip H20 values of
2-2.1" today, and with local wet downburst values in the upper
moderate category, damaging downbursts are possible this
afternoon/evening. For temps, with increased cloud cover from the
TSRA, a cooler day than yesterday is expected, but am still
expecting above seasonal highs today (low to mid 90s).

Tonight, as another shortwave swings around an upper ridge
stretching west over the Southern Plains, and todays energy moving
off, any upper support moves off, with the precip moving offshore as
a land breeze sets up. Overnight lows in  the low to mid 70s
expected, with high moisture levels and cloud cover limiting
radiational cooling.

/16

SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...
A vigorous shortwave trough, embedded in the northwesterly flow
aloft, will push a cold front into the Southeast Tuesday morning.
The front may reach the US-84 corridor as early as lunchtime, but
will likely become nearly stationary as expected convective
development reinforces the boundary.  The latest high-resolution
models suggest that the greatest odds of seeing widespread
convective development will occur around mid-afternoon and continue
into the evening.

Low-level moisture remains plentiful over the region, with
precipitable water values around 2.25 inches anticipated in vicinity
of the boundary.  Modified forecast soundings by Tuesday afternoon
will be characterized by low-level lapse rates between 6 and 7 C/km,
with MLCAPEs approaching 2000 J/kg.  Given the overall environment,
thunderstorms, some capable of producing strong wind gusts, will be
possible.  The overall risk of severe thunderstorms appears to be
limited by the lack of deep layer shear in the lowest 3 km.  The
exception could be in vicinity of the surface front, where storm
scale organization could be enhanced.  Heavy rainfall may be seen
with some of the stronger thunderstorms.

The front will likely vacillate toward the coast Tuesday night,
continuing the possibility of seeing showers and thunderstorms.
Convective coverage will likely decrease a bit due to diminishing
instability after sunset.

More showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday as the
front wanders north of the forecast area.  Overall, I suspect that
showers and thunderstorms will be more focused to areas in and
around the boundary as slightly drier air attempts to work its way
into Central Mississippi and Alabama.  Some of this drier air should
work its way south and east toward the IH-65 corridor, resulting in
only an isolated smattering of convection for most areas by
Wednesday night. /02/

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...
A return to a more typical summertime convective regime is
anticipated through the upcoming weekend, despite the continued
presence of a longwave trough axis in the upper atmosphere. Limiting
factors for convective coverage will likely be lower precipitable
water values and a greater reliance on mesoscale forcing to generate
convection.  There is some indication that another bit of energy
could rotate through the longwave trough this weekend.  Assuming
this happens, look for increased odds of seeing showers and
thunderstorms as another cold front moves into the Southeast.  /02/

MARINE...
A surface trough near the northern Gulf Coast will bring a
synoptically light wind regime to the area, with our onshore
afternoon Gulf Breeze/overnight offshore land breeze dominating. A
surface ridge will build over the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday on,
bringing a general southwesterly flow to area coastal waters for the
latter half of the week into the weekend.

/16

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271121
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
621 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...An upper disturbance noodling around over the area
today will bring an increase in the current shra/tsra activity
currently over Southeast Mississippi. Local drops in cigs, visbys to
low end mvfr levels likely in the stronger storms. Tonight, fog
development is likely, especially over areas that receive rains
today. Am expecting visbys to remain above MVFR minimums.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 516 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...
For today into this evening, a shortwave continues to meander around
over the north-central Gulf coast, bringing a another round of
showers and thunderstorms. With ML-CAPEs in the 1500-2000J/kg range,
enough instability will be present for strong to severe storms. Big
limiter for any organized severe weather will be wind shear.
Helicities are basically non-existent. Any shear will be localized
with a Gulf breeze expected to move inland this afternoon along with
any outflows generated. Guidance is advertising precip H20 values of
2-2.1" today, and with local wet downburst values in the upper
moderate category, damaging downbursts are possible this
afternoon/evening. For temps, with increased cloud cover from the
TSRA, a cooler day than yesterday is expected, but am still
expecting above seasonal highs today (low to mid 90s).

Tonight, as another shortwave swings around an upper ridge
stretching west over the Southern Plains, and todays energy moving
off, any upper support moves off, with the precip moving offshore as
a land breeze sets up. Overnight lows in  the low to mid 70s
expected, with high moisture levels and cloud cover limiting
radiational cooling.

/16

SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...
A vigorous shortwave trough, embedded in the northwesterly flow
aloft, will push a cold front into the Southeast Tuesday morning.
The front may reach the US-84 corridor as early as lunchtime, but
will likely become nearly stationary as expected convective
development reinforces the boundary.  The latest high-resolution
models suggest that the greatest odds of seeing widespread
convective development will occur around mid-afternoon and continue
into the evening.

Low-level moisture remains plentiful over the region, with
precipitable water values around 2.25 inches anticipated in vicinity
of the boundary.  Modified forecast soundings by Tuesday afternoon
will be characterized by low-level lapse rates between 6 and 7 C/km,
with MLCAPEs approaching 2000 J/kg.  Given the overall environment,
thunderstorms, some capable of producing strong wind gusts, will be
possible.  The overall risk of severe thunderstorms appears to be
limited by the lack of deep layer shear in the lowest 3 km.  The
exception could be in vicinity of the surface front, where storm
scale organization could be enhanced.  Heavy rainfall may be seen
with some of the stronger thunderstorms.

The front will likely vacillate toward the coast Tuesday night,
continuing the possibility of seeing showers and thunderstorms.
Convective coverage will likely decrease a bit due to diminishing
instability after sunset.

More showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday as the
front wanders north of the forecast area.  Overall, I suspect that
showers and thunderstorms will be more focused to areas in and
around the boundary as slightly drier air attempts to work its way
into Central Mississippi and Alabama.  Some of this drier air should
work its way south and east toward the IH-65 corridor, resulting in
only an isolated smattering of convection for most areas by
Wednesday night. /02/

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...
A return to a more typical summertime convective regime is
anticipated through the upcoming weekend, despite the continued
presence of a longwave trough axis in the upper atmosphere. Limiting
factors for convective coverage will likely be lower precipitable
water values and a greater reliance on mesoscale forcing to generate
convection.  There is some indication that another bit of energy
could rotate through the longwave trough this weekend.  Assuming
this happens, look for increased odds of seeing showers and
thunderstorms as another cold front moves into the Southeast.  /02/

MARINE...
A surface trough near the northern Gulf Coast will bring a
synoptically light wind regime to the area, with our onshore
afternoon Gulf Breeze/overnight offshore land breeze dominating. A
surface ridge will build over the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday on,
bringing a general southwesterly flow to area coastal waters for the
latter half of the week into the weekend.

/16

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271016
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
516 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...
For today into this evening, a shortwave continues to meander around
over the north-central Gulf coast, bringing a another round of
showers and thunderstorms. With ML-CAPEs in the 1500-2000J/kg range,
enough instability will be present for strong to severe storms. Big
limiter for any organized severe weather will be wind shear.
Helicities are basically non-existent. Any shear will be localized
with a Gulf breeze expected to move inland this afternoon along with
any outflows generated. Guidance is advertising precip H20 values of
2-2.1" today, and with local wet downburst values in the upper
moderate category, damaging downbursts are possible this
afternoon/evening. For temps, with increased cloud cover from the
TSRA, a cooler day than yesterday is expected, but am still
expecting above seasonal highs today (low to mid 90s).

Tonight, as another shortwave swings around an upper ridge
stretching west over the Southern Plains, and todays energy moving
off, any upper support moves off, with the precip moving offshore as
a land breeze sets up. Overnight lows in  the low to mid 70s
expected, with high moisture levels and cloud cover limiting
radiational cooling.

/16

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...
A vigorous shortwave trough, embedded in the northwesterly flow
aloft, will push a cold front into the Southeast Tuesday morning.
The front may reach the US-84 corridor as early as lunchtime, but
will likely become nearly stationary as expected convective
development reinforces the boundary.  The latest high-resolution
models suggest that the greatest odds of seeing widespread
convective development will occur around mid-afternoon and continue
into the evening.

Low-level moisture remains plentiful over the region, with
precipitable water values around 2.25 inches anticipated in vicinity
of the boundary.  Modified forecast soundings by Tuesday afternoon
will be characterized by low-level lapse rates between 6 and 7 C/km,
with MLCAPEs approaching 2000 J/kg.  Given the overall environment,
thunderstorms, some capable of producing strong wind gusts, will be
possible.  The overall risk of severe thunderstorms appears to be
limited by the lack of deep layer shear in the lowest 3 km.  The
exception could be in vicinity of the surface front, where storm
scale organization could be enhanced.  Heavy rainfall may be seen
with some of the stronger thunderstorms.

The front will likely vacillate toward the coast Tuesday night,
continuing the possibility of seeing showers and thunderstorms.
Convective coverage will likely decrease a bit due to diminishing
instability after sunset.

More showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday as the
front wanders north of the forecast area.  Overall, I suspect that
showers and thunderstorms will be more focused to areas in and
around the boundary as slightly drier air attempts to work its way
into Central Mississippi and Alabama.  Some of this drier air should
work its way south and east toward the IH-65 corridor, resulting in
only an isolated smattering of convection for most areas by
Wednesday night. /02/

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...
A return to a more typical summertime convective regime is
anticipated through the upcoming weekend, despite the continued
presence of a longwave trough axis in the upper atmosphere. Limiting
factors for convective coverage will likely be lower precipitable
water values and a greater reliance on mesoscale forcing to generate
convection.  There is some indication that another bit of energy
could rotate through the longwave trough this weekend.  Assuming
this happens, look for increased odds of seeing showers and
thunderstorms as another cold front moves into the Southeast.  /02/

&&

.MARINE...
A surface trough near the northern Gulf Coast will bring a
synoptically light wind regime to the area, with our onshore
afternoon Gulf Breeze/overnight offshore land breeze dominating. A
surface ridge will build over the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday on,
bringing a general southwesterly flow to area coastal waters for the
latter half of the week into the weekend.

/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  74  90  73 /  50  40  70  60
Pensacola   91  77  89  74 /  40  30  60  50
Destin      90  79  88  77 /  30  30  50  40
Evergreen   95  72  90  73 /  50  50  60  60
Waynesboro  95  72  90  71 /  50  50  70  60
Camden      95  72  89  73 /  50  40  70  60
Crestview   95  72  92  73 /  50  30  60  50

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob

SAM/Butts




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270859
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
359 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Today and tonight.

Water Vapor imagery shows a trough/low pressure center over Ontario
with an impulse moving into North Dakota. This impulse will merge
into the base of the trough and result in the trough digging
southward across the Great Lakes region. A surface cool front,
currently stretching from Indiana back into Kansas/Oklahoma, will
in turn be pushed southward toward the Tennessee Valley later
today. Rain chances will increase thru the day as the front
approaches. Although scattered convection is possible area wide,
more numerous showers/storms are likely across the northern
counties closer to the front. The majority of the activity should
dissipate before midnight, but will carry some 20 PoPs thru the
overnight hours as a few showers/storms could linger later,
especially with the front in the area.

There really isn`t any upper air support with this frontal system,
so organized convection, and therefore any widespread severe
weather, is not anticipated. However, the atmospheric conditions
will remain very similar to the past couple of days...high PWs,
steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient instability. So, some
strong storms will be possible, primarily during the peak heating of
the day and into the early evening. Here again, the main threat
would be localized strong/damaging wind gusts. With PWATs forecast
to be near 2.0 inches, storms will be capable of very heavy
downpours. While most locations can handle quite a bit of rain (due
to the prolonged dry period), any training of storms over the same
area(s) could lead to some localized minor flooding issues.

Temperatures today will generally be a couple degrees cooler than
yesterday. However, due to dew points still in the low 70s, heat
indices could rise to or just above 100 degrees in a few locations
this afternoon. As of now, it looks like they should stay below heat
advisory criteria of 105 degrees.

19

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Sunday.

The surface frontal system is expected to move across portions of
Central Alabama on Tuesday with increased rain chances during the
day. This should, except for the far southern counties, keep our
highs out of the 90s. With precipitation possible earlier in the
day, that will likely affect our instability potential for most.
We will have forcing from the front though, and could have a few
strong storms. However, we should be removed from the main energy
with this system. Some guidance is trying to bring the front
through the CWA. However, the upper flow suggests that it could
likely stall out across the southern half of Central Alabama as
the main upper low opens up over the Northeast U.S. and Eastern
Canada, with a broad trough lingering across the eastern part of
CONUS. Low pops across the southern half of the area will remain
for Wednesday due to a possible lingering boundary. The stalled
boundary could have some minor movement on Thursday, with only low
rain chances south. By Friday, rain chances will begin to move
back northward across more of the CWA as the boundary is expected
to push back northward. Another surface front is forecasted to
move southward toward Alabama and increase rain chances as we move
into next weekend.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, generally kept the terminal
forecast VFR another period. TOI was already reporting some light
BR and installed prevailing MVFR vis due to the rain they received
earlier today. They may be some localized instances of additional
BR development and will update because it will be sporadic.
Otherwise, persistence dominates again. Mid and upper level blow
off cloudiness was slowly moving over central Alabama and
will only slowly disperse overnight. Some patchy sporadic clouds
between 6-8k ft will also be around.

Monday, a cold front will approach northern Alabama by late
afternoon. The dissipating front over the area today should still
be meandering around, therefore, showers and thunderstorms are a
good bet. Went ahead and mentioned VCTS in the afternoon at all
locations but certainly time will need to be adjusted for tempo of
prevailing mention. The convective activity on Monday has a much
better chance of lasting into the overnight hours and a surface
focus will be near.

Winds will be light and variable much of the period, trending
toward northerly into Monday evening. Some stronger localized
wind gusts are possible near any thunderstorms Monday afternoon
and Monday evening.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected today with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase today into
Tuesday as a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some
isolated to scattered rain activity will remain possible across
the southeast on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions
expected across the north. No fire weather concerns are expected
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  71  88  67  90 /  60  40  40  20  10
Anniston    91  71  88  68  90 /  50  50  50  20  10
Birmingham  93  74  89  70  90 /  50  50  50  20  10
Tuscaloosa  94  73  89  70  92 /  50  50  60  20  10
Calera      93  73  89  70  90 /  50  50  60  20  10
Auburn      92  73  88  71  89 /  40  50  70  40  20
Montgomery  96  74  91  72  92 /  40  50  70  40  20
Troy        94  73  90  72  89 /  40  40  70  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

19/08/75




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270859
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
359 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Today and tonight.

Water Vapor imagery shows a trough/low pressure center over Ontario
with an impulse moving into North Dakota. This impulse will merge
into the base of the trough and result in the trough digging
southward across the Great Lakes region. A surface cool front,
currently stretching from Indiana back into Kansas/Oklahoma, will
in turn be pushed southward toward the Tennessee Valley later
today. Rain chances will increase thru the day as the front
approaches. Although scattered convection is possible area wide,
more numerous showers/storms are likely across the northern
counties closer to the front. The majority of the activity should
dissipate before midnight, but will carry some 20 PoPs thru the
overnight hours as a few showers/storms could linger later,
especially with the front in the area.

There really isn`t any upper air support with this frontal system,
so organized convection, and therefore any widespread severe
weather, is not anticipated. However, the atmospheric conditions
will remain very similar to the past couple of days...high PWs,
steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient instability. So, some
strong storms will be possible, primarily during the peak heating of
the day and into the early evening. Here again, the main threat
would be localized strong/damaging wind gusts. With PWATs forecast
to be near 2.0 inches, storms will be capable of very heavy
downpours. While most locations can handle quite a bit of rain (due
to the prolonged dry period), any training of storms over the same
area(s) could lead to some localized minor flooding issues.

Temperatures today will generally be a couple degrees cooler than
yesterday. However, due to dew points still in the low 70s, heat
indices could rise to or just above 100 degrees in a few locations
this afternoon. As of now, it looks like they should stay below heat
advisory criteria of 105 degrees.

19

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Sunday.

The surface frontal system is expected to move across portions of
Central Alabama on Tuesday with increased rain chances during the
day. This should, except for the far southern counties, keep our
highs out of the 90s. With precipitation possible earlier in the
day, that will likely affect our instability potential for most.
We will have forcing from the front though, and could have a few
strong storms. However, we should be removed from the main energy
with this system. Some guidance is trying to bring the front
through the CWA. However, the upper flow suggests that it could
likely stall out across the southern half of Central Alabama as
the main upper low opens up over the Northeast U.S. and Eastern
Canada, with a broad trough lingering across the eastern part of
CONUS. Low pops across the southern half of the area will remain
for Wednesday due to a possible lingering boundary. The stalled
boundary could have some minor movement on Thursday, with only low
rain chances south. By Friday, rain chances will begin to move
back northward across more of the CWA as the boundary is expected
to push back northward. Another surface front is forecasted to
move southward toward Alabama and increase rain chances as we move
into next weekend.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, generally kept the terminal
forecast VFR another period. TOI was already reporting some light
BR and installed prevailing MVFR vis due to the rain they received
earlier today. They may be some localized instances of additional
BR development and will update because it will be sporadic.
Otherwise, persistence dominates again. Mid and upper level blow
off cloudiness was slowly moving over central Alabama and
will only slowly disperse overnight. Some patchy sporadic clouds
between 6-8k ft will also be around.

Monday, a cold front will approach northern Alabama by late
afternoon. The dissipating front over the area today should still
be meandering around, therefore, showers and thunderstorms are a
good bet. Went ahead and mentioned VCTS in the afternoon at all
locations but certainly time will need to be adjusted for tempo of
prevailing mention. The convective activity on Monday has a much
better chance of lasting into the overnight hours and a surface
focus will be near.

Winds will be light and variable much of the period, trending
toward northerly into Monday evening. Some stronger localized
wind gusts are possible near any thunderstorms Monday afternoon
and Monday evening.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected today with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase today into
Tuesday as a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some
isolated to scattered rain activity will remain possible across
the southeast on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions
expected across the north. No fire weather concerns are expected
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  71  88  67  90 /  60  40  40  20  10
Anniston    91  71  88  68  90 /  50  50  50  20  10
Birmingham  93  74  89  70  90 /  50  50  50  20  10
Tuscaloosa  94  73  89  70  92 /  50  50  60  20  10
Calera      93  73  89  70  90 /  50  50  60  20  10
Auburn      92  73  88  71  89 /  40  50  70  40  20
Montgomery  96  74  91  72  92 /  40  50  70  40  20
Troy        94  73  90  72  89 /  40  40  70  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

19/08/75




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270738
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
238 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A fairly complex sfc map early this mrng across the ern 1/2 of the
country. The main sfc features that will affect the TN Valley will
be a couple of cdfnts now over the midwest. The first cdfnt or
prefrontal trof extends across KS/MO and into the Great Lakes. This
boundary will begin to affect NW AL arnd 15z this mrng and then move
across the rest of the cwa by the aftn. This will likely be our best
chc of pcpn for much of the upcoming work week. As for severe wx, PW`s
are arnd 2 inches with low level shear values very low. Also model
soundings were not showing any good mid level drying. Thus expect
heavy downpours with some localized flooding along with wind gusts
arnd 40 mph. Since freezing/wet bulb zero levels are arnd 14000 ft,
hail does not look that good.

By tonight the 1st front will be out of the cwa with pcpn tapering
off. However the 2nd front will approach the area by Tuesday with
another chc of shra/tsra. Attm the NAM does not show much if any
pcpn on Tuesday while the ECMWF/GFS keeps a chc of pcpn thru the
aftn. For now will go with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF and keep a
low pop in thru 00z. After 00z on Tuesday will end the chc of pcpn.
The threat of svr wx looks very low on Tuesday.

Wednesday/Thursday will be dry and less humid along with a little
cooler temps. Aftn highs will be between 85 and 90 with dewpoints
arnd 60. Not too bad for the end of June.

Friday, both the ECMWF/GFS were not showing much pcpn in the their
QPF fields. However the Super blend model does show a low chc of
shra/tsra on Friday, probably due to a weak cdfnt approaching the
area. Went ahead and kept the low pops in the grids to match with
surrounding offices.

Saturday/Sunday, this period looks like a better chc of pcpn due to a
few weak upper disturbances and a stalled cdfnt just north of the TN
Valley.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1200 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016)
For 06Z TAFs: VFR conds will continue at both MSL/HSV thru the early
morning hrs, although isolated shra/tsra may require an amd at
either terminal. With both airports recently experiencing some pcpn,
threat for early morning br/fg will continue in lgt flow regime, and
have included tempo for 5SM btwn 27/10-12Z. A more pronounced sw flow
will develop after sunrise, as a prefrontal sfc trough drops swd from
the Ohio Valley. Convection will begin to develop ahead of this bndry
by 14Z, with fairly widespread coverage anticipated btwn 17-20Z as
bndry pushes swd thru the region. A lgt nnw flow will develop by late
aftn, with widespread/heavier nature of pcpn leading to earlier
development of fog (28/04-06Z timeframe).

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    89  70  90  66 /  60  40  30  10
Shoals        90  71  91  68 /  60  40  30  10
Vinemont      88  69  89  66 /  60  50  30  10
Fayetteville  87  68  88  65 /  60  40  30  10
Albertville   90  69  88  66 /  60  50  30  10
Fort Payne    89  69  88  65 /  60  50  30  10

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270517
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1217 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...Isolated TSRA with gusty winds and heavy rain will
impact southeast MS to the west of the KMOB/KBFM terminals through
around 27.06-07Z. VFR should generally prevail overnight, though will
have to watch for some patchy at least MVFR fog for a few hours early
Monday morning, especially near locations where heavy rains fell
Sunday. Additional scattered TSRA, some with strong wind gusts and
reduced visibilities due to heavy rain will impact the area again
Monday. Confidence was high enough to introduce PROB30 at
KMOB/KBFM/KPNS after 27.18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1008 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Busy evening weather-wise across our area. Scattered
strong to severe storms developed across portions of south central
and southwest AL as well as across a good portion of the northwest
FL Panhandle as a shortwave trough rotating around the eastern
periphery of the upper ridge axis interacted with a highly moist and
unstable environment (2000-3000 J/KG of MLCAPE) and 25-30 knots of
deep layer shear. Earlier convection produced an extensive outflow
boundary which is now pushing into Washington, Mobile and southern
Baldwin counties in southwest AL as of 10 PM. Still rather decent
coverage of convection ongoing behind this feature, with new cells
developing over southeast MS. We updated the forecast to increase
gridded POPs to 30-50 percent over these areas through the remainder
of the evening. Convection is expected to diminish by 1 AM...and will
leave POPs below 20 percent after then for now, but will continue to
monitor trends for further updates. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the night
into Monday morning. Sct showers and thunderstorms will develop
during the afternoon Monday with associated reduced visbys and cigs.
/13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...

Upper ridging will continue to weaken and shift westward through
Monday. Meanwhile, a weak front will sink southward across the
Tennessee Valley during the day on Monday. Increasing moisture (PW
values around 2 inches) combined with the weakening upper ridge will
allow for an enhancement in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected area wide during
the peak heating hours. Strong instability combined with some
lingering dry air in the sub- cloud layer will create a favorable
environment for gusty winds in the stronger storms. Outside of any
relief from storms, hot and muggy conditions will continue with highs
in the low to mid 90s and heat index values off 100-106. Lows tonight
will fall into the mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...

A fairly active convective weather pattern is anticipated through
Wednesday night.

Monday night scattered thunderstorms should continue in the
conditionally unstable airmass overlying the area where layer
precipitable water values average around 2.0 inches. The upper level
ridge that had dominated area weather is carved back to the west.
With the ridge to our west minor shortwave troughs will move across
the area and couple with a surface trough of low pressure overlying
the area...triggering convection.

Convective activity increases as a major shortwave trough moving
down the longwave trough developing over the region drives a frontal
boundary southward across the forecast area.  Layer precipitable
water values rise well above normal and approach 2.25 inches.
Thunderstorms and showers are expected to become numerous during the
day. Lack of shear limits the severe risk but could possibly see a
strong outflow boundary with an organized cold pool develop north of
the forecast area where vertical shear is more favorable and then push
south across the area by late afternoon. The greatest threat would be
strong to possibly marginally severe straight line winds. Strong
updrafts are quite possible as afternoon MU CAPE climb to 4000 to
5000 J/kg but large hail remains unlikely as Wet Bulb Zeros remain up
above 14000`. Periods of heavy rainfall are possible and amounts of 1
to 3 inches are possible which could cause some localized nuisance
flooding along poor drainages.

Models have been somewhat inconsistent in whether or nor the front
makes it southward off the coast Tuesday night. With nocturnal
cooling over land giving it a little extra push it`s more likely than
not the weakening boundary moves over the near coastal waters. Due to
some uncertainty...left low end chances for thunderstorms over the
region but bumped them up over the marine area.

Wednesday looks to be another convectively active day as the
boundary shifts north with added push from the sea breeze. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to become numerous again over our
coastal counties becoming more scattered inland. Precipitable water
amounts remain highest along the coast...around 2.0 inches. Amounts
decrease rapidly moving inland to fairly dry 1 to 1.25 inches over
our more inland counties. Activity is expected to taper off overnight
with the chances for showers or thunderstorms basically being
confined to areas near the coast and over the Gulf waters.

Temperatures should be held in check with the increased convective
activity expected to occur across the area...average daily
temperatures should trend near to a little cooler than
climatological norms through the period. /08

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...

Drier conditions are expected from Thursday through Sunday. An upper
level longwave trough remains anchored over the Eastern States with
the forecast area remaining generally west of its axis. This will
provide for a much drier airmass then we experienced earlier in the
week. Layer precipitable water amounts will trend below to near
normal for this time of year. And a generally diurnally driven wind
and convective pattern develops over the area. Winds onshore during
the day...offshore at night. Pop up showers generally developing over
land during the day and then over the Gulf at night. The GFS does
start increasing layer precipitable water amounts by Saturday night
and pushes a frontal boundary near the northern portion of the
forecast area Sunday. Too much uncertainty to completely buy off on
this solution at the moment but have kept high chance PoPs in the
forecast for now on Sunday. Daily average temperatures are expected
to trend near to a little warmer than average Thursday through Sunday.
/08

MARINE...

High pressure will remain in place across the marine area
through the week. This will maintain a generally light onshore flow
during the day, with a slight enhancement due to the seabreeze. Seas
will remain 1-2 feet. /13

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270500
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1200 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
Current short term forecast grids are in good condition this evening,
with no significant changes required in this update. Latest radar
data indicates that remnants of early evening convection continue to
dissipate across Cullman county, and this trend should persist for
the next hour or so. Of more concern, however, is the gradual
development of deeper convective cells across middle TN -- with
indications in satellite data that this regime will expand southward
into northern portions of AL/MS very shortly. Most short term
guidance is in agreement that a subtle mid-level vort max will drop
southward across the region overnight around the retrograding
subtropical high over the southern Plains, and this should provide
sufficient ascent to offset the development of weak boundary layer
CINH. Based on this, we will be increasing POPs a bit and including
the potential for thunderstorms throughout the night, as elevated
CAPE is more than adequate for the development of lightning with the
stronger updrafts. Based on amount of rainfall that was received
today, light flow regime will favor the development of patchy early
morning fog, and this will be included in the forecast as well.
Temps/dewpoints and winds look good, with no adjustments required.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
For 06Z TAFs: VFR conds will continue at both MSL/HSV thru the early
morning hrs, although isolated shra/tsra may require an amd at
either terminal. With both airports recently experiencing some pcpn,
threat for early morning br/fg will continue in lgt flow regime, and
have included tempo for 5SM btwn 27/10-12Z. A more pronounced sw flow
will develop after sunrise, as a prefrontal sfc trough drops swd from
the Ohio Valley. Convection will begin to develop ahead of this bndry
by 14Z, with fairly widespread coverage anticipated btwn 17-20Z as
bndry pushes swd thru the region. A lgt nnw flow will develop by late
aftn, with widespread/heavier nature of pcpn leading to earlier
development of fog (28/04-06Z timeframe).

70/DD

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270451
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1151 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Did an overhaul on POPs for this evening.

The area north of Alex City up to Anniston and Gadsden has still
not seen any convection, and that area has outflow boundaries from
earlier and ongoing convection heading in from both the west and
the south. Likely POPs for this area may not be high enough --
only my confidence in storms continuing on kept me from going
categorical for that northeast and east central area. West of
I-65, I think most action is done for now, but will hold on to a
20 percent POP for several hours just in case an isolated shower
or storm POPs up. I`ve left the post-midnight time frame rain free
for now, but that will need to be re-evaluated in a couple hours.
Will continue to chase temperatures on an hourly basis, as the
rain-cooled air hits individual observation sites.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, generally kept the terminal
forecast VFR another period. TOI was already reporting some light
BR and installed prevailing MVFR vis due to the rain they received
earlier today. They may be some localized instances of additional
BR development and will update because it will be sporadic.
Otherwise, persistence dominates again. Mid and upper level blow
off cloudiness was slowly moving over central Alabama and
will only slowly disperse overnight. Some patchy sporadic clouds
between 6-8k ft will also be around.

Monday, a cold front will approach northern Alabama by late
afternoon. The dissipating front over the area today should still
be meandering around, therefore, showers and thunderstorms are a
good bet. Went ahead and mentioned VCTS in the afternoon at all locations
but certainly time will need to be adjusted for tempo of
prevailing mention. The convective activity on Monday has a much
better chance of lasting into the overnight hours and a surface
focus will be near.

Winds will be light and variable much of the period, trending
toward northerly into Monday evening.

Some stronger localized wind gusts are possible near any
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and Monday evening.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected on Monday with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase Monday/Tuesday as
a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some isolated-
scattered convection will remain possible across the southeast
on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions expected
across the north. No weather-related fire weather concerns are
expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  91  71  89  67 /  10  60  50  40  20
Anniston    72  90  71  87  67 /  10  50  50  50  20
Birmingham  74  94  74  89  70 /  10  50  50  50  20
Tuscaloosa  74  95  73  90  70 /  10  50  40  60  20
Calera      73  93  72  89  70 /  10  50  40  60  20
Auburn      73  93  72  88  71 /  10  40  40  70  40
Montgomery  75  96  74  91  72 /  10  40  40  70  40
Troy        73  94  73  91  71 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270451
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1151 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Did an overhaul on POPs for this evening.

The area north of Alex City up to Anniston and Gadsden has still
not seen any convection, and that area has outflow boundaries from
earlier and ongoing convection heading in from both the west and
the south. Likely POPs for this area may not be high enough --
only my confidence in storms continuing on kept me from going
categorical for that northeast and east central area. West of
I-65, I think most action is done for now, but will hold on to a
20 percent POP for several hours just in case an isolated shower
or storm POPs up. I`ve left the post-midnight time frame rain free
for now, but that will need to be re-evaluated in a couple hours.
Will continue to chase temperatures on an hourly basis, as the
rain-cooled air hits individual observation sites.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, generally kept the terminal
forecast VFR another period. TOI was already reporting some light
BR and installed prevailing MVFR vis due to the rain they received
earlier today. They may be some localized instances of additional
BR development and will update because it will be sporadic.
Otherwise, persistence dominates again. Mid and upper level blow
off cloudiness was slowly moving over central Alabama and
will only slowly disperse overnight. Some patchy sporadic clouds
between 6-8k ft will also be around.

Monday, a cold front will approach northern Alabama by late
afternoon. The dissipating front over the area today should still
be meandering around, therefore, showers and thunderstorms are a
good bet. Went ahead and mentioned VCTS in the afternoon at all locations
but certainly time will need to be adjusted for tempo of
prevailing mention. The convective activity on Monday has a much
better chance of lasting into the overnight hours and a surface
focus will be near.

Winds will be light and variable much of the period, trending
toward northerly into Monday evening.

Some stronger localized wind gusts are possible near any
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and Monday evening.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected on Monday with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase Monday/Tuesday as
a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some isolated-
scattered convection will remain possible across the southeast
on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions expected
across the north. No weather-related fire weather concerns are
expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  91  71  89  67 /  10  60  50  40  20
Anniston    72  90  71  87  67 /  10  50  50  50  20
Birmingham  74  94  74  89  70 /  10  50  50  50  20
Tuscaloosa  74  95  73  90  70 /  10  50  40  60  20
Calera      73  93  72  89  70 /  10  50  40  60  20
Auburn      73  93  72  88  71 /  10  40  40  70  40
Montgomery  75  96  74  91  72 /  10  40  40  70  40
Troy        73  94  73  91  71 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270308 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1008 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...Busy evening weather-wise across our area. Scattered
strong to severe storms developed across portions of south central
and southwest AL as well as across a good portion of the northwest
FL Panhandle as a shortwave trough rotating around the eastern
periphery of the upper ridge axis interacted with a highly moist and
unstable environment (2000-3000 J/KG of MLCAPE) and 25-30 knots of
deep layer shear. Earlier convection produced an extensive outflow
boundary which is now pushing into Washington, Mobile and southern
Baldwin counties in southwest AL as of 10 PM. Still rather decent
coverage of convection ongoing behind this feature, with new cells
developing over southeast MS. We updated the forecast to increase
gridded POPs to 30-50 percent over these areas through the remainder
of the evening. Convection is expected to diminish by 1 AM...and will
leave POPs below 20 percent after then for now, but will continue to
monitor trends for further updates. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the night
into Monday morning. Sct showers and thunderstorms will develop
during the afternoon Monday with associated reduced visbys and cigs.
/13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...

Upper ridging will continue to weaken and shift westward through
Monday. Meanwhile, a weak front will sink southward across the
Tennessee Valley during the day on Monday. Increasing moisture (PW
values around 2 inches) combined with the weakening upper ridge will
allow for an enhancement in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected area wide during
the peak heating hours. Strong instability combined with some
lingering dry air in the sub- cloud layer will create a favorable
environment for gusty winds in the stronger storms. Outside of any
relief from storms, hot and muggy conditions will continue with highs
in the low to mid 90s and heat index values off 100-106. Lows tonight
will fall into the mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...

A fairly active convective weather pattern is anticipated through
Wednesday night.

Monday night scattered thunderstorms should continue in the
conditionally unstable airmass overlying the area where layer
precipitable water values average around 2.0 inches. The upper level
ridge that had dominated area weather is carved back to the west.
With the ridge to our west minor shortwave troughs will move across
the area and couple with a surface trough of low pressure overlying
the area...triggering convection.

Convective activity increases as a major shortwave trough moving
down the longwave trough developing over the region drives a frontal
boundary southward across the forecast area.  Layer precipitable
water values rise well above normal and approach 2.25 inches.
Thunderstorms and showers are expected to become numerous during the
day. Lack of shear limits the severe risk but could possibly see a
strong outflow boundary with an organized cold pool develop north of
the forecast area where vertical shear is more favorable and then push
south across the area by late afternoon. The greatest threat would be
strong to possibly marginally severe straight line winds. Strong
updrafts are quite possible as afternoon MU CAPE climb to 4000 to
5000 J/kg but large hail remains unlikely as Wet Bulb Zeros remain up
above 14000`. Periods of heavy rainfall are possible and amounts of 1
to 3 inches are possible which could cause some localized nuisance
flooding along poor drainages.

Models have been somewhat inconsistent in whether or nor the front
makes it southward off the coast Tuesday night. With nocturnal
cooling over land giving it a little extra push it`s more likely than
not the weakening boundary moves over the near coastal waters. Due to
some uncertainty...left low end chances for thunderstorms over the
region but bumped them up over the marine area.

Wednesday looks to be another convectively active day as the
boundary shifts north with added push from the sea breeze. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to become numerous again over our
coastal counties becoming more scattered inland. Precipitable water
amounts remain highest along the coast...around 2.0 inches. Amounts
decrease rapidly moving inland to fairly dry 1 to 1.25 inches over
our more inland counties. Activity is expected to taper off overnight
with the chances for showers or thunderstorms basically being
confined to areas near the coast and over the Gulf waters.

Temperatures should be held in check with the increased convective
activity expected to occur across the area...average daily
temperatures should trend near to a little cooler than
climatological norms through the period. /08

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...

Drier conditions are expected from Thursday through Sunday. An upper
level longwave trough remains anchored over the Eastern States with
the forecast area remaining generally west of its axis. This will
provide for a much drier airmass then we experienced earlier in the
week. Layer precipitable water amounts will trend below to near
normal for this time of year. And a generally diurnally driven wind
and convective pattern develops over the area. Winds onshore during
the day...offshore at night. Pop up showers generally developing over
land during the day and then over the Gulf at night. The GFS does
start increasing layer precipitable water amounts by Saturday night
and pushes a frontal boundary near the northern portion of the
forecast area Sunday. Too much uncertainty to completely buy off on
this solution at the moment but have kept high chance PoPs in the
forecast for now on Sunday. Daily average temperatures are expected
to trend near to a little warmer than average Thursday through Sunday.
/08

MARINE...

High pressure will remain in place across the marine area
through the week. This will maintain a generally light onshore flow
during the day, with a slight enhancement due to the seabreeze. Seas
will remain 1-2 feet. /13

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270300
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Evening update to public forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current short term forecast grids are in good condition this evening,
with no significant changes required in this update. Latest radar
data indicates that remnants of early evening convection continue to
dissipate across Cullman county, and this trend should persist for
the next hour or so. Of more concern, however, is the gradual
development of deeper convective cells across middle TN -- with
indications in satellite data that this regime will expand southward
into northern portions of AL/MS very shortly. Most short term
guidance is in agreement that a subtle mid-level vort max will drop
southward across the region overnight around the retrograding
subtropical high over the southern Plains, and this should provide
sufficient ascent to offset the development of weak boundary layer
CINH. Based on this, we will be increasing POPs a bit and including
the potential for thunderstorms throughout the night, as elevated
CAPE is more than adequate for the development of lightning with the
stronger updrafts. Based on amount of rainfall that was received
today, light flow regime will favor the development of patchy early
morning fog, and this will be included in the forecast as well.
Temps/dewpoints and winds look good, with no adjustments required.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
For 00Z TAFs: VFR conds currently observed at both HSV/MSL, with
radar indicating no immediate concern for convection at MSL.
Cluster of tsra which recently impacted HSV continues to drift ssewd,
but additional development along outflow may warrant amds early this
evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conds to prevail thru early Mon
morning, with sct to ocnly bkn layers of high-based cu and as. With
both terminals experiencing at least some pcpn today, threat for
early morning br/fg will continue in lgt flow regime, and have
included tempo for 4SM btwn 10-12Z. A more pronounced sw flow will
develop after sunrise, as a prefrontal sfc trough drops swd from the
Ohio Valley. Convection will begin to develop ahead of this bndry by
17Z, with fairly widespread coverage anticipated btwn 19-23Z as
bndry pushes swd thru the region. Sfc winds will shift to nnw by end
of TAF period.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
(Issued 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
(Issued 241 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
Deep layer ridging over much of the region continues to dominate the
overall synoptic pattern. A couple minor perturbations rotating
around the eastern periphery of the ridge in the mid/upper level flow
will help maintain some weak upper level support for scattered
showers and thunderstorms through the beginning of the week. We`ll
finally see a break in the pattern as a trough digs through the Great
Lakes Region and shifts a surface front across the eastern US. Behind
the front, high pressure will reestablish by mid week with drier air
advecting into the area.

For the rest of today and tonight: At the surface at the moment, a
weak and nearly stationary boundary is wedged across much of the TN
Valley. Plenty of moisture and instability is again available this
afternoon to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, with a
couple storms potentially on the strong side. Theta E axis just
south of the area matches up well with a couple area of convergence
along the wedge front across the area helping to maintain and develop
convection this afternoon. Given the current situation, will let the
chance PoP wording (40-50 percent) ride through this evening. While
most convection will be diminishing after sunset, anticipate a couple
showers or a storm to linger along old outflow boundaries through
midnight. With the help of some cloud cover, temps are on track to
peak in the low/mid 90s with apparent temps in the upper 90s to low
100s.

For tomorrow: models continue to depict a weak mid/upper level wave
shifting again through the region. Once again, plenty of moisture and
instability will be available to be tapped into with some upper level
support as evident on model soundings. Expecting better thunderstorm
coverage tomorrow compared to past couple of days and cannot rule out
a severe thunderstorm or two developing during the late
afternoon/early evening hours.

For the rest of the period... frontal passage expected by late
Tuesday with surface ridging building in behind. Drier and slightly
cooler air will establish by mid week. The front itself is expected to
stall south of area and lift back further north later towards the
weekend, helping to increase rain chances.

Barron

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270300
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Evening update to public forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current short term forecast grids are in good condition this evening,
with no significant changes required in this update. Latest radar
data indicates that remnants of early evening convection continue to
dissipate across Cullman county, and this trend should persist for
the next hour or so. Of more concern, however, is the gradual
development of deeper convective cells across middle TN -- with
indications in satellite data that this regime will expand southward
into northern portions of AL/MS very shortly. Most short term
guidance is in agreement that a subtle mid-level vort max will drop
southward across the region overnight around the retrograding
subtropical high over the southern Plains, and this should provide
sufficient ascent to offset the development of weak boundary layer
CINH. Based on this, we will be increasing POPs a bit and including
the potential for thunderstorms throughout the night, as elevated
CAPE is more than adequate for the development of lightning with the
stronger updrafts. Based on amount of rainfall that was received
today, light flow regime will favor the development of patchy early
morning fog, and this will be included in the forecast as well.
Temps/dewpoints and winds look good, with no adjustments required.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
For 00Z TAFs: VFR conds currently observed at both HSV/MSL, with
radar indicating no immediate concern for convection at MSL.
Cluster of tsra which recently impacted HSV continues to drift ssewd,
but additional development along outflow may warrant amds early this
evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conds to prevail thru early Mon
morning, with sct to ocnly bkn layers of high-based cu and as. With
both terminals experiencing at least some pcpn today, threat for
early morning br/fg will continue in lgt flow regime, and have
included tempo for 4SM btwn 10-12Z. A more pronounced sw flow will
develop after sunrise, as a prefrontal sfc trough drops swd from the
Ohio Valley. Convection will begin to develop ahead of this bndry by
17Z, with fairly widespread coverage anticipated btwn 19-23Z as
bndry pushes swd thru the region. Sfc winds will shift to nnw by end
of TAF period.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
(Issued 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
(Issued 241 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
Deep layer ridging over much of the region continues to dominate the
overall synoptic pattern. A couple minor perturbations rotating
around the eastern periphery of the ridge in the mid/upper level flow
will help maintain some weak upper level support for scattered
showers and thunderstorms through the beginning of the week. We`ll
finally see a break in the pattern as a trough digs through the Great
Lakes Region and shifts a surface front across the eastern US. Behind
the front, high pressure will reestablish by mid week with drier air
advecting into the area.

For the rest of today and tonight: At the surface at the moment, a
weak and nearly stationary boundary is wedged across much of the TN
Valley. Plenty of moisture and instability is again available this
afternoon to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, with a
couple storms potentially on the strong side. Theta E axis just
south of the area matches up well with a couple area of convergence
along the wedge front across the area helping to maintain and develop
convection this afternoon. Given the current situation, will let the
chance PoP wording (40-50 percent) ride through this evening. While
most convection will be diminishing after sunset, anticipate a couple
showers or a storm to linger along old outflow boundaries through
midnight. With the help of some cloud cover, temps are on track to
peak in the low/mid 90s with apparent temps in the upper 90s to low
100s.

For tomorrow: models continue to depict a weak mid/upper level wave
shifting again through the region. Once again, plenty of moisture and
instability will be available to be tapped into with some upper level
support as evident on model soundings. Expecting better thunderstorm
coverage tomorrow compared to past couple of days and cannot rule out
a severe thunderstorm or two developing during the late
afternoon/early evening hours.

For the rest of the period... frontal passage expected by late
Tuesday with surface ridging building in behind. Drier and slightly
cooler air will establish by mid week. The front itself is expected to
stall south of area and lift back further north later towards the
weekend, helping to increase rain chances.

Barron

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270015
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
715 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Did an overhaul on POPs for this evening.

The area north of Alex City up to Anniston and Gadsden has still
not seen any convection, and that area has outflow boundaries from
earlier and ongoing convection heading in from both the west and
the south. Likely POPs for this area may not be high enough --
only my confidence in storms continuing on kept me from going
categorical for that northeast and east central area. West of
I-65, I think most action is done for now, but will hold on to a
20 percent POP for several hours just in case an isolated shower
or storm POPs up. I`ve left the post-midnight time frame rain free
for now, but that will need to be re-evaluated in a couple hours.
Will continue to chase temperatures on an hourly basis, as the
rain-cooled air hits individual observation sites.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, kept the terminal forecast VFR
another period. Radar depictions at 00z indicate strong
thunderstorms near the I-65 corridor, very near EET/BHM/ASN/MGM.
The predominate boundary has been located generally from Troy to
Montgomery to the Birmingham Metro area today. A secondary area
was across west central Alabama while yet another was near the
Georgia state line. The main axis coincided with a quasi-
stationary front draped over the area. Competing outflow and the
larger scale boundary will allow convection to last into the
evening hours. Mentioned a mix of VCTS, SHRA and TEMPO TS for the
terminals this evening. Mentioned this activity until 0200z at
some locations as the activity will wane as we move through the
evening hours. Will monitor in case outflows generate activity
longer than anticipated.

Ceilings will remain VFR area wide as the inverted v soundings
keep the cloud bases (LCL/LFC) rather high. The mid and upper
level blow off from the convective activity will keep temperatures
on a very slow fall overnight. Model output once again has fog
area wide and was hesitant to put it in the forecast. boundary
layer winds stay very light so no lifting. There has been a few
days of rain in select locations and some areas may approach zero
dew depressions, but should be isolated at best.

Monday, a cold front will approach northern Alabama by late
afternoon. The dissipating front over the area today should still
be meandering around, therefore, showers and thunderstorms are a
good bet. Went ahead and mention VCTS in the afternoon at most
locations but certainly time will need to be adjusted. The
convective activity on Monday has a much better chance of lasting
into the overnight hours.

Winds will be light and variable much of the period. But there
will be a chance of some stronger localized gusts near any
thunderstorms this evening and again Monday and Monday evening.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected on Monday with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase Monday/Tuesday as
a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some isolated-
scattered convection will remain possible across the southeast
on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions expected
across the north. No weather-related fire weather concerns are
expected at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 348 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

Showers and storms will continue through this afternoon and
evening on the eastern side of a 500 mb ridge. This activity
should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. The upper ridge
over the region will weaken into Monday and Tuesday as a trough
moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will coincide
with increasing rain chances as a weak front moves in from the
North. Have placed likely POPs near and just ahead of the front
with those higher pops transitioning from the North on Monday to
the South on Tuesday. Rain chances should decrease by Wednesday as
drier air moves in. The very low to zero rain chances should
continue through Friday before chances increase as another weak
front tries to move into the region for the weekend.

87/Grantham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  91  71  89  67 /  60  60  50  40  20
Anniston    71  90  71  87  67 /  70  50  50  50  20
Birmingham  75  94  74  89  70 /  60  50  50  50  20
Tuscaloosa  73  95  73  90  70 /  20  50  40  60  20
Calera      73  93  72  89  70 /  60  50  40  60  20
Auburn      73  93  72  88  71 /  50  40  40  70  40
Montgomery  75  96  74  91  72 /  40  40  40  70  40
Troy        73  94  73  91  71 /  70  40  40  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chilton...
Dallas...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lowndes...
Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...
Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270015
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
715 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Did an overhaul on POPs for this evening.

The area north of Alex City up to Anniston and Gadsden has still
not seen any convection, and that area has outflow boundaries from
earlier and ongoing convection heading in from both the west and
the south. Likely POPs for this area may not be high enough --
only my confidence in storms continuing on kept me from going
categorical for that northeast and east central area. West of
I-65, I think most action is done for now, but will hold on to a
20 percent POP for several hours just in case an isolated shower
or storm POPs up. I`ve left the post-midnight time frame rain free
for now, but that will need to be re-evaluated in a couple hours.
Will continue to chase temperatures on an hourly basis, as the
rain-cooled air hits individual observation sites.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, kept the terminal forecast VFR
another period. Radar depictions at 00z indicate strong
thunderstorms near the I-65 corridor, very near EET/BHM/ASN/MGM.
The predominate boundary has been located generally from Troy to
Montgomery to the Birmingham Metro area today. A secondary area
was across west central Alabama while yet another was near the
Georgia state line. The main axis coincided with a quasi-
stationary front draped over the area. Competing outflow and the
larger scale boundary will allow convection to last into the
evening hours. Mentioned a mix of VCTS, SHRA and TEMPO TS for the
terminals this evening. Mentioned this activity until 0200z at
some locations as the activity will wane as we move through the
evening hours. Will monitor in case outflows generate activity
longer than anticipated.

Ceilings will remain VFR area wide as the inverted v soundings
keep the cloud bases (LCL/LFC) rather high. The mid and upper
level blow off from the convective activity will keep temperatures
on a very slow fall overnight. Model output once again has fog
area wide and was hesitant to put it in the forecast. boundary
layer winds stay very light so no lifting. There has been a few
days of rain in select locations and some areas may approach zero
dew depressions, but should be isolated at best.

Monday, a cold front will approach northern Alabama by late
afternoon. The dissipating front over the area today should still
be meandering around, therefore, showers and thunderstorms are a
good bet. Went ahead and mention VCTS in the afternoon at most
locations but certainly time will need to be adjusted. The
convective activity on Monday has a much better chance of lasting
into the overnight hours.

Winds will be light and variable much of the period. But there
will be a chance of some stronger localized gusts near any
thunderstorms this evening and again Monday and Monday evening.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected on Monday with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase Monday/Tuesday as
a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some isolated-
scattered convection will remain possible across the southeast
on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions expected
across the north. No weather-related fire weather concerns are
expected at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 348 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

Showers and storms will continue through this afternoon and
evening on the eastern side of a 500 mb ridge. This activity
should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. The upper ridge
over the region will weaken into Monday and Tuesday as a trough
moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will coincide
with increasing rain chances as a weak front moves in from the
North. Have placed likely POPs near and just ahead of the front
with those higher pops transitioning from the North on Monday to
the South on Tuesday. Rain chances should decrease by Wednesday as
drier air moves in. The very low to zero rain chances should
continue through Friday before chances increase as another weak
front tries to move into the region for the weekend.

87/Grantham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  91  71  89  67 /  60  60  50  40  20
Anniston    71  90  71  87  67 /  70  50  50  50  20
Birmingham  75  94  74  89  70 /  60  50  50  50  20
Tuscaloosa  73  95  73  90  70 /  20  50  40  60  20
Calera      73  93  72  89  70 /  60  50  40  60  20
Auburn      73  93  72  88  71 /  50  40  40  70  40
Montgomery  75  96  74  91  72 /  40  40  40  70  40
Troy        73  94  73  91  71 /  70  40  40  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chilton...
Dallas...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lowndes...
Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...
Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270003
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
703 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 241 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
Deep layer ridging over much of the region continues to dominate the
overall synoptic pattern. A couple minor perturbations rotating
around the eastern periphery of the ridge in the mid/upper level flow
will help maintain some weak upper level support for scattered
showers and thunderstorms through the beginning of the week. We`ll
finally see a break in the pattern as a trough digs through the Great
Lakes Region and shifts a surface front across the eastern US. Behind
the front, high pressure will reestablish by mid week with drier air
advecting into the area.

For the rest of today and tonight: At the surface at the moment, a
weak and nearly stationary boundary is wedged across much of the TN
Valley. Plenty of moisture and instability is again available this
afternoon to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, with a
couple storms potentially on the strong side. Theta E axis just
south of the area matches up well with a couple area of convergence
along the wedge front across the area helping to maintain and develop
convection this afternoon. Given the current situation, will let the
chance PoP wording (40-50 percent) ride through this evening. While
most convection will be diminishing after sunset, anticipate a couple
showers or a storm to linger along old outflow boundaries through
midnight. With the help of some cloud cover, temps are on track to
peak in the low/mid 90s with apparent temps in the upper 90s to low
100s.

For tomorrow: models continue to depict a weak mid/upper level wave
shifting again through the region. Once again, plenty of moisture and
instability will be available to be tapped into with some upper level
support as evident on model soundings. Expecting better thunderstorm
coverage tomorrow compared to past couple of days and cannot rule out
a severe thunderstorm or two developing during the late
afternoon/early evening hours.

For the rest of the period... frontal passage expected by late
Tuesday with surface ridging building in behind. Drier and slightly
cooler air will establish by mid week. The front itself is expected to
stall south of area and lift back further north later towards the
weekend, helping to increase rain chances.

Barron

&&

.AVIATION...
For 00Z TAFs: VFR conds currently observed at both HSV/MSL, with
radar indicating no immediate concern for convection at MSL.
Cluster of tsra which recently impacted HSV continues to drift ssewd,
but additional development along outflow may warrant amds early this
evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conds to prevail thru early Mon
morning, with sct to ocnly bkn layers of high-based cu and as. With
both terminals experiencing at least some pcpn today, threat for
early morning br/fg will continue in lgt flow regime, and have
included tempo for 4SM btwn 10-12Z. A more pronounced sw flow will
develop after sunrise, as a prefrontal sfc trough drops swd from the
Ohio Valley. Convection will begin to develop ahead of this bndry by
17Z, with fairly widespread coverage anticipated btwn 19-23Z as
bndry pushes swd thru the region. Sfc winds will shift to nnw by end
of TAF period.

70/DD

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270003
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
703 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 241 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
Deep layer ridging over much of the region continues to dominate the
overall synoptic pattern. A couple minor perturbations rotating
around the eastern periphery of the ridge in the mid/upper level flow
will help maintain some weak upper level support for scattered
showers and thunderstorms through the beginning of the week. We`ll
finally see a break in the pattern as a trough digs through the Great
Lakes Region and shifts a surface front across the eastern US. Behind
the front, high pressure will reestablish by mid week with drier air
advecting into the area.

For the rest of today and tonight: At the surface at the moment, a
weak and nearly stationary boundary is wedged across much of the TN
Valley. Plenty of moisture and instability is again available this
afternoon to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, with a
couple storms potentially on the strong side. Theta E axis just
south of the area matches up well with a couple area of convergence
along the wedge front across the area helping to maintain and develop
convection this afternoon. Given the current situation, will let the
chance PoP wording (40-50 percent) ride through this evening. While
most convection will be diminishing after sunset, anticipate a couple
showers or a storm to linger along old outflow boundaries through
midnight. With the help of some cloud cover, temps are on track to
peak in the low/mid 90s with apparent temps in the upper 90s to low
100s.

For tomorrow: models continue to depict a weak mid/upper level wave
shifting again through the region. Once again, plenty of moisture and
instability will be available to be tapped into with some upper level
support as evident on model soundings. Expecting better thunderstorm
coverage tomorrow compared to past couple of days and cannot rule out
a severe thunderstorm or two developing during the late
afternoon/early evening hours.

For the rest of the period... frontal passage expected by late
Tuesday with surface ridging building in behind. Drier and slightly
cooler air will establish by mid week. The front itself is expected to
stall south of area and lift back further north later towards the
weekend, helping to increase rain chances.

Barron

&&

.AVIATION...
For 00Z TAFs: VFR conds currently observed at both HSV/MSL, with
radar indicating no immediate concern for convection at MSL.
Cluster of tsra which recently impacted HSV continues to drift ssewd,
but additional development along outflow may warrant amds early this
evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conds to prevail thru early Mon
morning, with sct to ocnly bkn layers of high-based cu and as. With
both terminals experiencing at least some pcpn today, threat for
early morning br/fg will continue in lgt flow regime, and have
included tempo for 4SM btwn 10-12Z. A more pronounced sw flow will
develop after sunrise, as a prefrontal sfc trough drops swd from the
Ohio Valley. Convection will begin to develop ahead of this bndry by
17Z, with fairly widespread coverage anticipated btwn 19-23Z as
bndry pushes swd thru the region. Sfc winds will shift to nnw by end
of TAF period.

70/DD

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 262322 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the night
into Monday morning. Sct showers and thunderstorms will develop
during the afternoon Monday with associated reduced visbys and cigs.
/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...

Upper ridging will continue to weaken and shift westward through
Monday. Meanwhile, a weak front will sink southward across the
Tennessee Valley during the day on Monday. Increasing moisture (PW
values around 2 inches) combined with the weakening upper ridge will
allow for an enhancement in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected area wide during
the peak heating hours. Strong instability combined with some
lingering dry air in the sub- cloud layer will create a favorable
environment for gusty winds in the stronger storms. Outside of any
relief from storms, hot and muggy conditions will continue with highs
in the low to mid 90s and heat index values off 100-106. Lows tonight
will fall into the mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...

A fairly active convective weather pattern is anticipated through
Wednesday night.

Monday night scattered thunderstorms should continue in the
conditionally unstable airmass overlying the area where layer
precipitable water values average around 2.0 inches. The upper level
ridge that had dominated area weather is carved back to the west.
With the ridge to our west minor shortwave troughs will move across
the area and couple with a surface trough of low pressure overlying
the area...triggering convection.

Convective activity increases as a major shortwave trough moving
down the longwave trough developing over the region drives a frontal
boundary southward across the forecast area.  Layer precipitable
water values rise well above normal and approach 2.25 inches.
Thunderstorms and showers are expected to become numerous during the
day. Lack of shear limits the severe risk but could possibly see a
strong outflow boundary with an organized cold pool develop north of
the forecast area where vertical shear is more favorable and then push
south across the area by late afternoon. The greatest threat would be
strong to possibly marginally severe straight line winds. Strong
updrafts are quite possible as afternoon MU CAPE climb to 4000 to
5000 J/kg but large hail remains unlikely as Wet Bulb Zeros remain up
above 14000`. Periods of heavy rainfall are possible and amounts of 1
to 3 inches are possible which could cause some localized nuisance
flooding along poor drainages.

Models have been somewhat inconsistent in whether or nor the front
makes it southward off the coast Tuesday night. With nocturnal
cooling over land giving it a little extra push it`s more likely than
not the weakening boundary moves over the near coastal waters. Due to
some uncertainty...left low end chances for thunderstorms over the
region but bumped them up over the marine area.

Wednesday looks to be another convectively active day as the
boundary shifts north with added push from the sea breeze. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to become numerous again over our
coastal counties becoming more scattered inland. Precipitable water
amounts remain highest along the coast...around 2.0 inches. Amounts
decrease rapidly moving inland to fairly dry 1 to 1.25 inches over
our more inland counties. Activity is expected to taper off overnight
with the chances for showers or thunderstorms basically being
confined to areas near the coast and over the Gulf waters.

Temperatures should be held in check with the increased convective
activity expected to occur across the area...average daily
temperatures should trend near to a little cooler than
climatological norms through the period. /08

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...

Drier conditions are expected from Thursday through Sunday. An upper
level longwave trough remains anchored over the Eastern States with
the forecast area remaining generally west of its axis. This will
provide for a much drier airmass then we experienced earlier in the
week. Layer precipitable water amounts will trend below to near
normal for this time of year. And a generally diurnally driven wind
and convective pattern develops over the area. Winds onshore during
the day...offshore at night. Pop up showers generally developing over
land during the day and then over the Gulf at night. The GFS does
start increasing layer precipitable water amounts by Saturday night
and pushes a frontal boundary near the northern portion of the
forecast area Sunday. Too much uncertainty to completely buy off on
this solution at the moment but have kept high chance PoPs in the
forecast for now on Sunday. Daily average temperatures are expected
to trend near to a little warmer than average Thursday through Sunday.
/08

MARINE...

High pressure will remain in place across the marine area
through the week. This will maintain a generally light onshore flow
during the day, with a slight enhancement due to the seabreeze. Seas
will remain 1-2 feet. /13

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KMOB 262322 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the night
into Monday morning. Sct showers and thunderstorms will develop
during the afternoon Monday with associated reduced visbys and cigs.
/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...

Upper ridging will continue to weaken and shift westward through
Monday. Meanwhile, a weak front will sink southward across the
Tennessee Valley during the day on Monday. Increasing moisture (PW
values around 2 inches) combined with the weakening upper ridge will
allow for an enhancement in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected area wide during
the peak heating hours. Strong instability combined with some
lingering dry air in the sub- cloud layer will create a favorable
environment for gusty winds in the stronger storms. Outside of any
relief from storms, hot and muggy conditions will continue with highs
in the low to mid 90s and heat index values off 100-106. Lows tonight
will fall into the mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...

A fairly active convective weather pattern is anticipated through
Wednesday night.

Monday night scattered thunderstorms should continue in the
conditionally unstable airmass overlying the area where layer
precipitable water values average around 2.0 inches. The upper level
ridge that had dominated area weather is carved back to the west.
With the ridge to our west minor shortwave troughs will move across
the area and couple with a surface trough of low pressure overlying
the area...triggering convection.

Convective activity increases as a major shortwave trough moving
down the longwave trough developing over the region drives a frontal
boundary southward across the forecast area.  Layer precipitable
water values rise well above normal and approach 2.25 inches.
Thunderstorms and showers are expected to become numerous during the
day. Lack of shear limits the severe risk but could possibly see a
strong outflow boundary with an organized cold pool develop north of
the forecast area where vertical shear is more favorable and then push
south across the area by late afternoon. The greatest threat would be
strong to possibly marginally severe straight line winds. Strong
updrafts are quite possible as afternoon MU CAPE climb to 4000 to
5000 J/kg but large hail remains unlikely as Wet Bulb Zeros remain up
above 14000`. Periods of heavy rainfall are possible and amounts of 1
to 3 inches are possible which could cause some localized nuisance
flooding along poor drainages.

Models have been somewhat inconsistent in whether or nor the front
makes it southward off the coast Tuesday night. With nocturnal
cooling over land giving it a little extra push it`s more likely than
not the weakening boundary moves over the near coastal waters. Due to
some uncertainty...left low end chances for thunderstorms over the
region but bumped them up over the marine area.

Wednesday looks to be another convectively active day as the
boundary shifts north with added push from the sea breeze. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to become numerous again over our
coastal counties becoming more scattered inland. Precipitable water
amounts remain highest along the coast...around 2.0 inches. Amounts
decrease rapidly moving inland to fairly dry 1 to 1.25 inches over
our more inland counties. Activity is expected to taper off overnight
with the chances for showers or thunderstorms basically being
confined to areas near the coast and over the Gulf waters.

Temperatures should be held in check with the increased convective
activity expected to occur across the area...average daily
temperatures should trend near to a little cooler than
climatological norms through the period. /08

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...

Drier conditions are expected from Thursday through Sunday. An upper
level longwave trough remains anchored over the Eastern States with
the forecast area remaining generally west of its axis. This will
provide for a much drier airmass then we experienced earlier in the
week. Layer precipitable water amounts will trend below to near
normal for this time of year. And a generally diurnally driven wind
and convective pattern develops over the area. Winds onshore during
the day...offshore at night. Pop up showers generally developing over
land during the day and then over the Gulf at night. The GFS does
start increasing layer precipitable water amounts by Saturday night
and pushes a frontal boundary near the northern portion of the
forecast area Sunday. Too much uncertainty to completely buy off on
this solution at the moment but have kept high chance PoPs in the
forecast for now on Sunday. Daily average temperatures are expected
to trend near to a little warmer than average Thursday through Sunday.
/08

MARINE...

High pressure will remain in place across the marine area
through the week. This will maintain a generally light onshore flow
during the day, with a slight enhancement due to the seabreeze. Seas
will remain 1-2 feet. /13

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KBMX 262251
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
551 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Evening Update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Did an overhaul on POPs for this evening.

The area north of Alex City up to Anniston and Gadsden has still
not seen any convection, and that area has outflow boundaries from
earlier and ongoing convection heading in from both the west and
the south. Likely POPs for this area may not be high enough --
only my confidence in storms continuing on kept me from going
categorical for that northeast and east central area. West of
I-65, I think most action is done for now, but will hold on to a
20 percent POP for several hours just in case an isolated shower
or storm POPs up. I`ve left the post-midnight time frame rain free
for now, but that will need to be re-evaluated in a couple hours.
Will continue to chase temperatures on an hourly basis, as the
rain-cooled air hits individual observation sites.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the area.
Some already close to area airports. Activity should die off
around sunset. Winds very light today except in thunderstorms.
Ceilings consistent with summer time convection.

88


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected on Monday with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase Monday/Tuesday as
a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some isolated-
scattered convection will remain possible across the southeast
on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions expected
across the north. No weather-related fire weather concerns are
expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  91  71  89  67 /  60  60  50  40  20
Anniston    71  90  71  87  67 /  70  50  50  50  20
Birmingham  75  94  74  89  70 /  60  50  50  50  20
Tuscaloosa  73  95  73  90  70 /  20  50  40  60  20
Calera      73  93  72  89  70 /  60  50  40  60  20
Auburn      73  93  72  88  71 /  50  40  40  70  40
Montgomery  75  96  74  91  72 /  40  40  40  70  40
Troy        73  94  73  91  71 /  70  40  40  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chilton...
Dallas...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lowndes...
Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...
Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 262251
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
551 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Evening Update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Did an overhaul on POPs for this evening.

The area north of Alex City up to Anniston and Gadsden has still
not seen any convection, and that area has outflow boundaries from
earlier and ongoing convection heading in from both the west and
the south. Likely POPs for this area may not be high enough --
only my confidence in storms continuing on kept me from going
categorical for that northeast and east central area. West of
I-65, I think most action is done for now, but will hold on to a
20 percent POP for several hours just in case an isolated shower
or storm POPs up. I`ve left the post-midnight time frame rain free
for now, but that will need to be re-evaluated in a couple hours.
Will continue to chase temperatures on an hourly basis, as the
rain-cooled air hits individual observation sites.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the area.
Some already close to area airports. Activity should die off
around sunset. Winds very light today except in thunderstorms.
Ceilings consistent with summer time convection.

88


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected on Monday with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase Monday/Tuesday as
a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some isolated-
scattered convection will remain possible across the southeast
on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions expected
across the north. No weather-related fire weather concerns are
expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  91  71  89  67 /  60  60  50  40  20
Anniston    71  90  71  87  67 /  70  50  50  50  20
Birmingham  75  94  74  89  70 /  60  50  50  50  20
Tuscaloosa  73  95  73  90  70 /  20  50  40  60  20
Calera      73  93  72  89  70 /  60  50  40  60  20
Auburn      73  93  72  88  71 /  50  40  40  70  40
Montgomery  75  96  74  91  72 /  40  40  40  70  40
Troy        73  94  73  91  71 /  70  40  40  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chilton...
Dallas...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lowndes...
Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...
Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 262048
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
348 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms will continue through this afternoon and
evening on the eastern side of a 500 mb ridge. This activity
should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. The upper ridge
over the region will weaken into Monday and Tuesday as a trough
moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will coincide
with increasing rain chances as a weak front moves in from the
North. Have placed likely POPs near and just ahead of the front
with those higher pops transitioning from the North on Monday to
the South on Tuesday. Rain chances should decrease by Wednesday as
drier air moves in. The very low to zero rain chances should
continue through Friday before chances increase as another weak
front tries to move into the region for the weekend.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the area.
Some already close to area airports. Activity should die off
around sunset. Winds very light today except in thunderstorms.
Ceilings consistent with summer time convection.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected on Monday with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase Monday/Tuesday as
a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some isolated-
scattered convection will remain possible across the southeast
on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions expected
across the north. No weather-related fire weather concerns are
expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  91  71  89  67 /  40  60  50  40  20
Anniston    71  90  71  87  67 /  40  50  50  50  20
Birmingham  75  94  74  89  70 /  40  50  50  50  20
Tuscaloosa  73  95  73  90  70 /  40  50  40  60  20
Calera      73  93  72  89  70 /  40  50  40  60  20
Auburn      73  93  72  88  71 /  40  40  40  70  40
Montgomery  75  96  74  91  72 /  40  40  40  70  40
Troy        73  94  73  91  71 /  40  40  40  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chilton...
Dallas...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lowndes...
Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...
Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 262048
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
348 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms will continue through this afternoon and
evening on the eastern side of a 500 mb ridge. This activity
should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. The upper ridge
over the region will weaken into Monday and Tuesday as a trough
moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will coincide
with increasing rain chances as a weak front moves in from the
North. Have placed likely POPs near and just ahead of the front
with those higher pops transitioning from the North on Monday to
the South on Tuesday. Rain chances should decrease by Wednesday as
drier air moves in. The very low to zero rain chances should
continue through Friday before chances increase as another weak
front tries to move into the region for the weekend.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the area.
Some already close to area airports. Activity should die off
around sunset. Winds very light today except in thunderstorms.
Ceilings consistent with summer time convection.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected on Monday with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase Monday/Tuesday as
a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some isolated-
scattered convection will remain possible across the southeast
on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions expected
across the north. No weather-related fire weather concerns are
expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  91  71  89  67 /  40  60  50  40  20
Anniston    71  90  71  87  67 /  40  50  50  50  20
Birmingham  75  94  74  89  70 /  40  50  50  50  20
Tuscaloosa  73  95  73  90  70 /  40  50  40  60  20
Calera      73  93  72  89  70 /  40  50  40  60  20
Auburn      73  93  72  88  71 /  40  40  40  70  40
Montgomery  75  96  74  91  72 /  40  40  40  70  40
Troy        73  94  73  91  71 /  40  40  40  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chilton...
Dallas...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lowndes...
Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...
Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 262026
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
326 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...

Upper ridging will continue to weaken and shift westward through
Monday. Meanwhile, a weak front will sink southward across the
Tennessee Valley during the day on Monday. Increasing moisture (PW
values around 2 inches) combined with the weakening upper ridge will
allow for an enhancement in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected area wide during
the peak heating hours. Strong instability combined with some
lingering dry air in the sub- cloud layer will create a favorable
environment for gusty winds in the stronger storms. Outside of any
relief from storms, hot and muggy conditions will continue with highs
in the low to mid 90s and heat index values off 100-106. Lows tonight
will fall into the mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. /13

.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...

A fairly active convective weather pattern is anticipated through
Wednesday night.

Monday night scattered thunderstorms should continue in the
conditionally unstable airmass overlying the area where layer
precipitable water values average around 2.0 inches. The upper level
ridge that had dominated area weather is carved back to the west.
With the ridge to our west minor shortwave troughs will move across
the area and couple with a surface trough of low pressure overlying
the area...triggering convection.

Convective activity increases as a major shortwave trough moving
down the longwave trough developing over the region drives a frontal
boundary southward across the forecast area.  Layer precipitable
water values rise well above normal and approach 2.25 inches.
Thunderstorms and showers are expected to become numerous during the
day. Lack of shear limits the severe risk but could possibly see a
strong outflow boundary with an organized cold pool develop north of
the forecast area where vertical shear is more favorable and then push
south across the area by late afternoon. The greatest threat would be
strong to possibly marginally severe straight line winds. Strong
updrafts are quite possible as afternoon MU CAPE climb to 4000 to
5000 J/kg but large hail remains unlikely as Wet Bulb Zeros remain up
above 14000`. Periods of heavy rainfall are possible and amounts of 1
to 3 inches are possible which could cause some localized nuisance
flooding along poor drainages.

Models have been somewhat inconsistent in whether or nor the front
makes it southward off the coast Tuesday night. With nocturnal
cooling over land giving it a little extra push it`s more likely than
not the weakening boundary moves over the near coastal waters. Due to
some uncertainty...left low end chances for thunderstorms over the
region but bumped them up over the marine area.

Wednesday looks to be another convectively active day as the
boundary shifts north with added push from the sea breeze. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to become numerous again over our
coastal counties becoming more scattered inland. Precipitable water
amounts remain highest along the coast...around 2.0 inches. Amounts
decrease rapidly moving inland to fairly dry 1 to 1.25 inches over
our more inland counties. Activity is expected to taper off overnight
with the chances for showers or thunderstorms basically being
confined to areas near the coast and over the Gulf waters.

Temperatures should be held in check with the increased convective
activity expected to occur across the area...average daily
temperatures should trend near to a little cooler than
climatological norms through the period. /08

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...

Drier conditions are expected from Thursday through Sunday. An upper
level longwave trough remains anchored over the Eastern States with
the forecast area remaining generally west of its axis. This will
provide for a much drier airmass then we experienced earlier in the
week. Layer precipitable water amounts will trend below to near
normal for this time of year. And a generally diurnally driven wind
and convective pattern develops over the area. Winds onshore during
the day...offshore at night. Pop up showers generally developing over
land during the day and then over the Gulf at night. The GFS does
start increasing layer precipitable water amounts by Saturday night
and pushes a frontal boundary near the northern portion of the
forecast area Sunday. Too much uncertainty to completely buy off on
this solution at the moment but have kept high chance PoPs in the
forecast for now on Sunday. Daily average temperatures are expected
to trend near to a little warmer than average Thursday through Sunday.
/08

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain in place across the marine area
through the week. This will maintain a generally light onshore flow
during the day, with a slight enhancement due to the seabreeze. Seas
will remain 1-2 feet. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  93  75  89 /  20  40  30  60
Pensacola   77  91  76  90 /  20  30  30  60
Destin      78  89  79  90 /  20  30  20  50
Evergreen   73  95  74  90 /  30  40  40  70
Waynesboro  73  95  74  89 /  30  40  30  70
Camden      74  96  75  91 /  30  40  30  70
Crestview   74  95  74  92 /  30  40  30  60

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261941
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
241 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Deep layer ridging over much of the region continues to dominate the
overall synoptic pattern. A couple minor perturbations rotating
around the eastern periphery of the ridge in the mid/upper level flow
will help maintain some weak upper level support for scattered
showers and thunderstorms through the beginning of the week. We`ll
finally see a break in the pattern as a trough digs through the Great
Lakes Region and shifts a surface front across the eastern US. Behind
the front, high pressure will reestablish by mid week with drier air
advecting into the area.

For the rest of today and tonight: At the surface at the moment, a
weak and nearly stationary boundary is wedged across much of the TN
Valley. Plenty of moisture and instability is again available this
afternoon to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, with a
couple storms potentially on the strong side. Theta E axis just
south of the area matches up well with a couple area of convergence
along the wedge front across the area helping to maintain and develop
convection this afternoon. Given the current situation, will let the
chance PoP wording (40-50 percent) ride through this evening. While
most convection will be diminishing after sunset, anticipate a couple
showers or a storm to linger along old outflow boundaries through
midnight. With the help of some cloud cover, temps are on track to
peak in the low/mid 90s with apparent temps in the upper 90s to low
100s.

For tomorrow: models continue to depict a weak mid/upper level wave
shifting again through the region. Once again, plenty of moisture and
instability will be available to be tapped into with some upper level
support as evident on model soundings. Expecting better thunderstorm
coverage tomorrow compared to past couple of days and cannot rule out
a severe thunderstorm or two developing during the late
afternoon/early evening hours.

For the rest of the period... frontal passage expected by late
Tuesday with surface ridging building in behind. Drier and slightly
cooler air will establish by mid week. The front itself is expected to
stall south of area and lift back further north later towards the
weekend, helping to increase rain chances.

Barron

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
For 18Z TAFs: Expect that VCTS should occur at MSL by beginning of
TAF forecast period and around 19z at HSV due to recent TSRA
development trends. Will still continue with VFR conditions until
around 08z at both TAF sites, when MVFR fog conditions are expected.
Expect that VFR conditions should occur at both HSV and MSL after 13z
with the fog dissipated. Winds should slowly increase out of the
230/250 degree range in advance of the cold front after 13z. Have
introduced a PROB30 grouping for MSL after 15z and at HSV after 16z
through the end of the forecast.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    74  91  72  92 /  30  60  50  20
Shoals        74  91  71  93 /  30  70  50  20
Vinemont      73  90  71  89 /  30  70  50  40
Fayetteville  72  88  69  88 /  30  60  50  20
Albertville   72  91  70  89 /  30  70  50  40
Fort Payne    71  89  69  89 /  40  70  50  30

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261833 AAB
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
133 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...See updated information below.

&&

.UPDATE...The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed.
/13

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail outside of VCTS through
the afternoon hours. VFR conditions continue overnight with a similar
pattern expected on Monday. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...General VFR conditions expected across the area
through the forecast. Shra/tsra will return to mostly inland
southwest and south-central alabama this afternoon evening, creating
localized drops in cigs/visbys this afternoon and evening.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...
An upper high situated over the lower Mississippi River Valley gets
shifted west by a series of shortwaves moving around the edge, along
with a shortwave trough beginning to move southeast across the Great
Lakes tonight. For today, this energy, along with a weak boundary
just to the east of the FA will bring rain back to the area, with
best chance over eastern portions of the FA. Even with the upper
ridge beginning to shift east, subsidence from the remains an
influence on temps, with highs above seasonal (low to mid 90s).
Combined with a moist airmass over the FA (precip H20 levels around
1.8"), am expecting heat indices to rise to the 101 to 106 degree
range. Also, with the increased moisture comes increased
instability, and when combined with a drier layer above 10k`, comes
an increased risk of damaging downburst with the storms over the
eastern portion of the FA.

Tonight, more shortwave energy swings around the more noticeably
westward retreating upper ridge, so am expecting the SHRA/TSRA to
continue into the evening hours. Also, with increased cloud debris,
and higher moisture levels, overnight temps above a bit above
seasonal expected (low to mid 70s).

/16

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...
Expect the "back door" front just to our north and east to dissipate
tomorrow with the departure of any bit of significant support in the
upper atmosphere.  Closer to home, the upper-level ridge center will
continue its westward shift Monday, allowing shortwave energy moving
through the Upper Midwest to push a cold front toward the Southeast.

Other than some showers over the Gulf along the land breeze
boundary, I think there may be enough remnant ridging to preclude
much in the way of convective development over land areas through
most of the morning.  This should allow instability to increase, as
the periphery of the remaining ridge is used to pivot additional
boundary layer moisture (with precipitable water values around 2
inches) by late afternoon. As such, additional shower and
thunderstorm development is expected as the sea breeze moves onshore.

Modified forecast soundings across the region late Monday afternoon
appear to be characterized by low-level lapse rates approaching 7
C/km, MLCAPEs of (at least) 1500-2000 J/kg (SBCAPE obviously
higher), and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer. This will likely
result in a moderate wet microburst risk for Monday and the potential
to see strong, gusty winds with the thunderstorms.

If thunderstorms weren`t enough, the combination of afternoon
temperatures in the middle 90s and dewpoints in the middle 70s will
yield heat indices (generally) between 101 and 106.

The cold front should weaken to a surface pressure trough as it
moves into the Tennessee Valley. However, additional energy rotating
through the northern stream shortwave will help to develop a
northwesterly flow aloft to replace the retrograding ridge.  With
this flow in place, we expect the surface trough to move southward
into our area by Tuesday morning, with a second cold front affecting
northern Mississippi and Alabama. Given the plentiful atmospheric
moisture in place over our area, we should have no problem seeing
showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday.  /02/

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
A longwave trough is still expected to exert great influence on our
weather conditions through the long term portion of the forecast.
The (second) cold front will likely become nearly stationary close
to the US-84 corridor Wednesday, then vacillate northward a bit
through Saturday. Boundary layer moisture should remain pooled in
vicinity of that boundary, with precipitable water values approaching
2.25 inches. Based on this, I have increased the odds of seeing
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.

With the northward drift of the surface boundary, we`ll likely have
to increasingly depend on mesoscale processes (such as the sea
breeze) to aid in or enhance convective development.  An isolated or
scattered smattering of showers or thunderstorms, with a greater
diurnal trend, is expected Thursday through Saturday.  /02/

MARINE...
A weakly organized surface ridge over the northern Gulf transitions
to a surface high over the North-Central Gulf into the beginning of
the week. For the North-Central Gulf Coast, this will bring a
general westerly wind to area coastal waters. A diurnal night- time
offshore/afternoon onshore component will add to the winds along and
inland from the coast.

/16

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KBMX 261739
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation and today`s adjustments.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the east and
west with mostly sunny conditions along the I-65 corridor. The
differential heating zone in the middle could be an area of focus
for additional thunderstorms this afternoon. Regardless of where
you are in the CWA, keep an umbrella handy with scattered
coverage expected. Additionally, the heat advisory was expanded to
include the 65 corridor and southeastward to catch the Troy and
Eufaula areas which are already above the 100 degree HI mark.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the area.
Some already close to area airports. Activity should die off
around sunset. Winds very light today except in thunderstorms.
Ceilings consistent with summer time convection.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected again today with hotter
than normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase
Monday/Tuesday as a frontal boundary slides southward across the
forecast area. Some isolated-scattered convection will remain
possible across the southeast Wednesday/Thursday, with drier and
less humid conditions expected across the north. No weather-
related fire weather concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chilton...
Dallas...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lowndes...
Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...
Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261738 AAC
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 1048 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
Today will feel like a copy of yesterday, hot with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. However, temps are warming up a little slower
than yesterday due to the lingering cloud cover and a few showers
that were in our eastern zones. 15Z temps are in the mid 80s but
will reach the low to mid 90s again today. Heat index values at 15Z
are already reaching 90 degrees. Those values will be climbing up to
100 to 105 degrees by this afternoon so don`t forget those heat
safety tips!

The boundary that sparked off development yesterday is still draped
north to south across east AL and central TN. The boundary combined
with daytime heating, a weak upper-level disturbance to our NW and
wedge front to the east...will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Did increase POPs a little and adjusted
the timing heading into this afternoon as well. Kept the trend of
slightly higher POPs in NE AL where the boundary is, however a
strong storm cannot be ruled out across the board.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
For 18Z TAFs: Expect that VCTS should occur at MSL by beginning of
TAF forecast period and around 19z at HSV due to recent TSRA
development trends. Will still continue with VFR conditions until
around 08z at both TAF sites, when MVFR fog conditions are expected.
Expect that VFR conditions should occur at both HSV and MSL after 13z
with the fog dissipated. Winds should slowly increase out of the
230/250 degree range in advance of the cold front after 13z. Have
introduced a PROB30 grouping for MSL after 15z and at HSV after 16z
through the end of the forecast.

TT

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261738 AAC
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 1048 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
Today will feel like a copy of yesterday, hot with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. However, temps are warming up a little slower
than yesterday due to the lingering cloud cover and a few showers
that were in our eastern zones. 15Z temps are in the mid 80s but
will reach the low to mid 90s again today. Heat index values at 15Z
are already reaching 90 degrees. Those values will be climbing up to
100 to 105 degrees by this afternoon so don`t forget those heat
safety tips!

The boundary that sparked off development yesterday is still draped
north to south across east AL and central TN. The boundary combined
with daytime heating, a weak upper-level disturbance to our NW and
wedge front to the east...will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Did increase POPs a little and adjusted
the timing heading into this afternoon as well. Kept the trend of
slightly higher POPs in NE AL where the boundary is, however a
strong storm cannot be ruled out across the board.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
For 18Z TAFs: Expect that VCTS should occur at MSL by beginning of
TAF forecast period and around 19z at HSV due to recent TSRA
development trends. Will still continue with VFR conditions until
around 08z at both TAF sites, when MVFR fog conditions are expected.
Expect that VFR conditions should occur at both HSV and MSL after 13z
with the fog dissipated. Winds should slowly increase out of the
230/250 degree range in advance of the cold front after 13z. Have
introduced a PROB30 grouping for MSL after 15z and at HSV after 16z
through the end of the forecast.

TT

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261548 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1048 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Morning update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today will feel like a copy of yesterday, hot with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. However, temps are warming up a little slower
than yesterday due to the lingering cloud cover and a few showers
that were in our eastern zones. 15Z temps are in the mid 80s but
will reach the low to mid 90s again today. Heat index values at 15Z
are already reaching 90 degrees. Those values will be climbing up to
100 to 105 degrees by this afternoon so don`t forget those heat
safety tips!

The boundary that sparked off development yesterday is still draped
north to south across east AL and central TN. The boundary combined
with daytime heating, a weak upper-level disturbance to our NW and
wedge front to the east...will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Did increase POPs a little and adjusted
the timing heading into this afternoon as well. Kept the trend of
slightly higher POPs in NE AL where the boundary is, however a
strong storm cannot be ruled out across the board.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 640 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
For 12Z TAFs: Upper level high pressure remains over the region today
but at the surface a frontal boundary has stalled out and is located
along and east of I-65. This should be the focus for the development
of thunderstorms later today. However, as is typical in the summer
time isolated storms are possible across the entire TN Valley this
afternoon. Have kept a VCTS in at both terminals from 19Z to 02Z due
to the low confidence in the timing of storms and if they will move
over either terminal. Expect very heavy rain with brief drops to IFR
conditions, strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail
near any thunderstorms that form today. Guidance has convection
tapering off after 02Z but could see an isolated storm continue
through 06Z. Patchy fog is possible again tonight from 08Z to 13Z.

Stumpf

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261140
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
640 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
 (Issued 133 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
The last remaining rainfall shown on radar reflectivity has just
about dissipated in Madison and Lincoln Counties. Satellite imagery
depicts remnant anvil debris clouds across TN, AL and GA. Watching
to see if any fog or low stratus develops, but nothing so far.
Upstream imagery and streamflow analysis shows a weak
shortwave/vorticity axis along the MS river valley that will be
dropping southeast into our forecast area today. This along with a
surface boundary/convergence zone basically north-south from middle
TN through eastern AL will provide the needed support for scattered
thunderstorms today. The greater POP will be east of I-65, but given
outflow boundaries, it is difficult to rule out activity just about
anywhere today. Forecast soundings appear similar to what was
observed at BMX and OHX this evening, with sufficient CAPE values in
the 2-3k J/kg range to support strong updrafts. D-CAPE values should
reach around 1k J/kg or a bit higher again today to support isolated
downbursts. I won`t rule out some hail as well with ample CAPE noted
in the hail growth zone of storms, despite WBZ heights above 10kft.
The CI/CS shield should remain thin enough for good heating again
today, with readings in the low to mid 90s expected. Suspect clouds
and storms may develop sooner today, so have dropped highs a bit from
yesterday.

Model guidance continues to indicate nocturnal continuance and/or
redevelopment of thunderstorms overnight with the wave/shear axis
basically remaining in place through Monday. On Monday, yet another
wave arrives as well from our northwest, with another one or two to
follow through Tuesday. Went with likely POP on Monday, and high
chance POP on Monday Night and Tuesday, but I suspect if model trends
continue, we may need to increase these POPs as well. Hopefully the
rest of the area will receive beneficial and not excessive rainfall
during this period. However, given slow movement and potential for
repeated thunderstorms, intense downpours could lead to isolated
flash flood events during the next couple of days.

The GFS and ECMWF are much more progressive with the cold front on
Tuesday, bringing drier air to the region Tuesday afternoon. The NAM
is slower and keeps showers and thunderstorms a possibility. Will go
on the low side Tuesday afternoon, then dry by Tuesday evening. We
should see a more pleasant period of weather during the middle of
next week with lower humidity and near seasonal temperatures. A wet
pattern still looks to be setting up by next weekend into the
following week. No significant variances were made from suggested
model blends.

&&

.AVIATION...
For 12Z TAFs: Upper level high pressure remains over the region today
but at the surface a frontal boundary has stalled out and is located
along and east of I-65. This should be the focus for the development
of thunderstorms later today. However, as is typical in the summer
time isolated storms are possible across the entire TN Valley this
afternoon. Have kept a VCTS in at both terminals from 19Z to 02Z due
to the low confidence in the timing of storms and if they will move
over either terminal. Expect very heavy rain with brief drops to IFR
conditions, strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail
near any thunderstorms that form today. Guidance has convection
tapering off after 02Z but could see an isolated storm continue
through 06Z. Patchy fog is possible again tonight from 08Z to 13Z.

Stumpf

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261128
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...General VFR conditions expected across the area
through the forecast. Shra/tsra will return to mostly inland
southwest and south-central alabama this afternoon evening, creating
localized drops in cigs/visbys this afternoon and evening.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...
An upper high situated over the lower Mississippi River Valley gets
shifted west by a series of shortwaves moving around the edge, along
with a shortwave trough beginning to move southeast across the Great
Lakes tonight. For today, this energy, along with a weak boundary
just to the east of the FA will bring rain back to the area, with
best chance over eastern portions of the FA. Even with the upper
ridge beginning to shift east, subsidence from the remains an
influence on temps, with highs above seasonal (low to mid 90s).
Combined with a moist airmass over the FA (precip H20 levels around
1.8"), am expecting heat indices to rise to the 101 to 106 degree
range. Also, with the increased moisture comes increased
instability, and when combined with a drier layer above 10k`, comes
an increased risk of damaging downburst with the storms over the
eastern portion of the FA.

Tonight, more shortwave energy swings around the more noticeably
westward retreating upper ridge, so am expecting the SHRA/TSRA to
continue into the evening hours. Also, with increased cloud debris,
and higher moisture levels, overnight temps above a bit above
seasonal expected (low to mid 70s).

/16

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...
Expect the "back door" front just to our north and east to dissipate
tomorrow with the departure of any bit of significant support in the
upper atmosphere.  Closer to home, the upper-level ridge center will
continue its westward shift Monday, allowing shortwave energy moving
through the Upper Midwest to push a cold front toward the Southeast.

Other than some showers over the Gulf along the land breeze
boundary, I think there may be enough remnant ridging to preclude
much in the way of convective development over land areas through
most of the morning.  This should allow instability to increase, as
the periphery of the remaining ridge is used to pivot additional
boundary layer moisture (with precipitable water values around 2
inches) by late afternoon. As such, additional shower and
thunderstorm development is expected as the sea breeze moves onshore.

Modified forecast soundings across the region late Monday afternoon
appear to be characterized by low-level lapse rates approaching 7
C/km, MLCAPEs of (at least) 1500-2000 J/kg (SBCAPE obviously
higher), and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer. This will likely
result in a moderate wet microburst risk for Monday and the potential
to see strong, gusty winds with the thunderstorms.

If thunderstorms weren`t enough, the combination of afternoon
temperatures in the middle 90s and dewpoints in the middle 70s will
yield heat indices (generally) between 101 and 106.

The cold front should weaken to a surface pressure trough as it
moves into the Tennessee Valley. However, additional energy rotating
through the northern stream shortwave will help to develop a
northwesterly flow aloft to replace the retrograding ridge.  With
this flow in place, we expect the surface trough to move southward
into our area by Tuesday morning, with a second cold front affecting
northern Mississippi and Alabama. Given the plentiful atmospheric
moisture in place over our area, we should have no problem seeing
showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday.  /02/

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
A longwave trough is still expected to exert great influence on our
weather conditions through the long term portion of the forecast.
The (second) cold front will likely become nearly stationary close
to the US-84 corridor Wednesday, then vacillate northward a bit
through Saturday. Boundary layer moisture should remain pooled in
vicinity of that boundary, with precipitable water values approaching
2.25 inches. Based on this, I have increased the odds of seeing
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.

With the northward drift of the surface boundary, we`ll likely have
to increasingly depend on mesoscale processes (such as the sea
breeze) to aid in or enhance convective development.  An isolated or
scattered smattering of showers or thunderstorms, with a greater
diurnal trend, is expected Thursday through Saturday.  /02/

MARINE...
A weakly organized surface ridge over the northern Gulf transitions
to a surface high over the North-Central Gulf into the beginning of
the week. For the North-Central Gulf Coast, this will bring a
general westerly wind to area coastal waters. A diurnal night- time
offshore/afternoon onshore component will add to the winds along and
inland from the coast.

/16

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261128
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...General VFR conditions expected across the area
through the forecast. Shra/tsra will return to mostly inland
southwest and south-central alabama this afternoon evening, creating
localized drops in cigs/visbys this afternoon and evening.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...
An upper high situated over the lower Mississippi River Valley gets
shifted west by a series of shortwaves moving around the edge, along
with a shortwave trough beginning to move southeast across the Great
Lakes tonight. For today, this energy, along with a weak boundary
just to the east of the FA will bring rain back to the area, with
best chance over eastern portions of the FA. Even with the upper
ridge beginning to shift east, subsidence from the remains an
influence on temps, with highs above seasonal (low to mid 90s).
Combined with a moist airmass over the FA (precip H20 levels around
1.8"), am expecting heat indices to rise to the 101 to 106 degree
range. Also, with the increased moisture comes increased
instability, and when combined with a drier layer above 10k`, comes
an increased risk of damaging downburst with the storms over the
eastern portion of the FA.

Tonight, more shortwave energy swings around the more noticeably
westward retreating upper ridge, so am expecting the SHRA/TSRA to
continue into the evening hours. Also, with increased cloud debris,
and higher moisture levels, overnight temps above a bit above
seasonal expected (low to mid 70s).

/16

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...
Expect the "back door" front just to our north and east to dissipate
tomorrow with the departure of any bit of significant support in the
upper atmosphere.  Closer to home, the upper-level ridge center will
continue its westward shift Monday, allowing shortwave energy moving
through the Upper Midwest to push a cold front toward the Southeast.

Other than some showers over the Gulf along the land breeze
boundary, I think there may be enough remnant ridging to preclude
much in the way of convective development over land areas through
most of the morning.  This should allow instability to increase, as
the periphery of the remaining ridge is used to pivot additional
boundary layer moisture (with precipitable water values around 2
inches) by late afternoon. As such, additional shower and
thunderstorm development is expected as the sea breeze moves onshore.

Modified forecast soundings across the region late Monday afternoon
appear to be characterized by low-level lapse rates approaching 7
C/km, MLCAPEs of (at least) 1500-2000 J/kg (SBCAPE obviously
higher), and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer. This will likely
result in a moderate wet microburst risk for Monday and the potential
to see strong, gusty winds with the thunderstorms.

If thunderstorms weren`t enough, the combination of afternoon
temperatures in the middle 90s and dewpoints in the middle 70s will
yield heat indices (generally) between 101 and 106.

The cold front should weaken to a surface pressure trough as it
moves into the Tennessee Valley. However, additional energy rotating
through the northern stream shortwave will help to develop a
northwesterly flow aloft to replace the retrograding ridge.  With
this flow in place, we expect the surface trough to move southward
into our area by Tuesday morning, with a second cold front affecting
northern Mississippi and Alabama. Given the plentiful atmospheric
moisture in place over our area, we should have no problem seeing
showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday.  /02/

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
A longwave trough is still expected to exert great influence on our
weather conditions through the long term portion of the forecast.
The (second) cold front will likely become nearly stationary close
to the US-84 corridor Wednesday, then vacillate northward a bit
through Saturday. Boundary layer moisture should remain pooled in
vicinity of that boundary, with precipitable water values approaching
2.25 inches. Based on this, I have increased the odds of seeing
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.

With the northward drift of the surface boundary, we`ll likely have
to increasingly depend on mesoscale processes (such as the sea
breeze) to aid in or enhance convective development.  An isolated or
scattered smattering of showers or thunderstorms, with a greater
diurnal trend, is expected Thursday through Saturday.  /02/

MARINE...
A weakly organized surface ridge over the northern Gulf transitions
to a surface high over the North-Central Gulf into the beginning of
the week. For the North-Central Gulf Coast, this will bring a
general westerly wind to area coastal waters. A diurnal night- time
offshore/afternoon onshore component will add to the winds along and
inland from the coast.

/16

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261007
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
507 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...
An upper high situated over the lower Mississippi River Valley gets
shifted west by a series of shortwaves moving around the edge, along
with a shortwave trough beginning to move southeast across the Great
Lakes tonight. For today, this energy, along with a weak boundary
just to the east of the FA will bring rain back to the area, with
best chance over eastern portions of the FA. Even with the upper
ridge beginning to shift east, subsidence from the remains an
influence on temps, with highs above seasonal (low to mid 90s).
Combined with a moist airmass over the FA (precip H20 levels around
1.8"), am expecting heat indices to rise to the 101 to 106 degree
range. Also, with the increased moisture comes increased
instability, and when combined with a drier layer above 10k`, comes
an increased risk of damaging downburst with the storms over the
eastern portion of the FA.

Tonight, more shortwave energy swings around the more noticeably
westward retreating upper ridge, so am expecting the SHRA/TSRA to
continue into the evening hours. Also, with increased cloud debris,
and higher moisture levels, overnight temps above a bit above
seasonal expected (low to mid 70s).

/16

.SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...
Expect the "back door" front just to our north and east to dissipate
tomorrow with the departure of any bit of significant support in the
upper atmosphere.  Closer to home, the upper-level ridge center will
continue its westward shift Monday, allowing shortwave energy moving
through the Upper Midwest to push a cold front toward the Southeast.

Other than some showers over the Gulf along the land breeze
boundary, I think there may be enough remnant ridging to preclude
much in the way of convective development over land areas through
most of the morning.  This should allow instability to increase, as
the periphery of the remaining ridge is used to pivot additional
boundary layer moisture (with precipitable water values around 2
inches) by late afternoon. As such, additional shower and
thunderstorm development is expected as the sea breeze moves onshore.

Modified forecast soundings across the region late Monday afternoon
appear to be characterized by low-level lapse rates approaching 7
C/km, MLCAPEs of (at least) 1500-2000 J/kg (SBCAPE obviously
higher), and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer. This will likely
result in a moderate wet microburst risk for Monday and the potential
to see strong, gusty winds with the thunderstorms.

If thunderstorms weren`t enough, the combination of afternoon
temperatures in the middle 90s and dewpoints in the middle 70s will
yield heat indices (generally) between 101 and 106.

The cold front should weaken to a surface pressure trough as it
moves into the Tennessee Valley. However, additional energy rotating
through the northern stream shortwave will help to develop a
northwesterly flow aloft to replace the retrograding ridge.  With
this flow in place, we expect the surface trough to move southward
into our area by Tuesday morning, with a second cold front affecting
northern Mississippi and Alabama. Given the plentiful atmospheric
moisture in place over our area, we should have no problem seeing
showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday.  /02/

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
A longwave trough is still expected to exert great influence on our
weather conditions through the long term portion of the forecast.
The (second) cold front will likely become nearly stationary close
to the US-84 corridor Wednesday, then vacillate northward a bit
through Saturday. Boundary layer moisture should remain pooled in
vicinity of that boundary, with precipitable water values approaching
2.25 inches. Based on this, I have increased the odds of seeing
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.

With the northward drift of the surface boundary, we`ll likely have
to increasingly depend on mesoscale processes (such as the sea
breeze) to aid in or enhance convective development.  An isolated or
scattered smattering of showers or thunderstorms, with a greater
diurnal trend, is expected Thursday through Saturday.  /02/

&&

.MARINE...
A weakly organized surface ridge over the northern Gulf transitions
to a surface high over the North-Central Gulf into the beginning of
the week. For the North-Central Gulf Coast, this will bring a
general westerly wind to area coastal waters. A diurnal night- time
offshore/afternoon onshore component will add to the winds along and
inland from the coast.

/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      95  74  92  74 /  20  20  40  40
Pensacola   92  76  91  76 /  20  20  30  30
Destin      90  77  89  79 /  20  20  30  30
Evergreen   96  70  95  74 /  40  30  40  40
Waynesboro  96  73  96  73 /  20  20  40  40
Camden      96  72  95  74 /  40  50  40  40
Crestview   96  71  94  73 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

SAM/Butts




000
FXUS64 KBMX 260829
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
329 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Extreme heat and moist low levels provided energy for a few strong
to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. The storms
mainly formed in a zone of slightly higher mid level lapse rates and
weak low level convergence. A similar set-up today with slightly
colder 500mb temperatures across east Alabama. A noticeable easterly
low level flow over Georgia will push into east Alabama and produce
a zone of convergence which convection will likely initiate later
this morning. The Steering winds will generally be from the west-
northwest, so the highest rain chances will remain east of I-65.
Forecast soundings do not indicate a significant microburst
potential this afternoon, but mid level lapse rates are slightly
higher that yesterday, and will mention isolated damaging winds
along and east of I-65.  Convection will linger well into the
evening hours due to above normal temperatures and numerous outflow
boundaries. The warmer air the brought 100+ degree temperatures to
central Georgia and east Alabama on Saturday will shift into west
Alabama today. With forecast highs in the upper 90s west of I-65, a
heat advisory will be issued for areas west of I-65.

58/Rose

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Saturday.

Influences from the upper ridge will wane early in the work week as
it retrogrades westward and a trough digs south/east across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A couple of impulses within the trough
will push a cool front southward toward the TN Valley on Monday and
then into Central Alabama on Tuesday. Rain chances will increase
from the north starting on Monday with the highest PoPs translating
southward with the front through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous
showers/storms will be likely along/ahead of the boundary. With
PWATs forecast to be around 2.0 inches, storms will be capable of
very heavy downpours. While most locations can handle quite a bit of
rain (due to the prolonged dry period), any training of storms over
the same area(s) could lead to some localized minor flooding issues.

The front is projected to push into south AL by late Wednesday.
Drier and less humid conditions can be expected across much of the
forecast area mid week in the wake of the frontal passage. However,
some isolated to scattered convection will be possible across the
southeast counties on Thursday due to the proximity of the frontal
boundary. Models continue to indicate another wet period next
weekend as deeper moisture returns to the area and another frontal
boundary approaches from the north.

Monday looks to be the warmest day with temps rising into the
low/mid 90s. Heat indices could approach or exceed 100 degrees, but
should remain below heat advisory criteria of 105 degrees.
Temperatures will largely be near normal during the rest period with
highs generally in the upper 80s and low 90s.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Generally, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Otherwise,
we are left with a few cumulus and the mid and upper level blow
off from the storms overnight. Once again, the model guidance
suggest fog development overnight. There could potentially be some
in the rain areas, but expect temperatures to drop slowly
overnight due to the higher clouds. therefore, confidence in
anything developing remains low and will not mention.

Sunday looks like more scattered convection across the entire
area. Expect that the terminals will be affect at some point and
will add VCTS for all locations somewhere between 19-01z. Any
storms that develop Sunday afternoon have the potential for
strong gusty winds and localized torrential rain.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected again today with hotter
than normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase
Monday/Tuesday as a frontal boundary slides southward across the
forecast area. Some isolated-scattered convection will remain
possible across the southeast Wednesday/Thursday, with drier and
less humid conditions expected across the north. No weather-
related fire weather concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  71  90  73  89 /  40  30  60  40  40
Anniston    95  72  90  72  88 /  40  30  50  40  50
Birmingham  97  73  93  74  90 /  40  30  50  40  50
Tuscaloosa  98  74  95  74  90 /  30  30  40  40  50
Calera      96  72  92  73  88 /  40  30  40  40  50
Auburn      95  72  93  74  88 /  40  30  40  30  60
Montgomery  97  73  95  75  91 /  40  30  40  40  60
Troy        96  70  94  74  91 /  40  30  40  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening For the
following counties: Bibb...Dallas...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Lamar...Marengo...Marion...Perry...Pickens...Sumter...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 260829
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
329 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Extreme heat and moist low levels provided energy for a few strong
to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. The storms
mainly formed in a zone of slightly higher mid level lapse rates and
weak low level convergence. A similar set-up today with slightly
colder 500mb temperatures across east Alabama. A noticeable easterly
low level flow over Georgia will push into east Alabama and produce
a zone of convergence which convection will likely initiate later
this morning. The Steering winds will generally be from the west-
northwest, so the highest rain chances will remain east of I-65.
Forecast soundings do not indicate a significant microburst
potential this afternoon, but mid level lapse rates are slightly
higher that yesterday, and will mention isolated damaging winds
along and east of I-65.  Convection will linger well into the
evening hours due to above normal temperatures and numerous outflow
boundaries. The warmer air the brought 100+ degree temperatures to
central Georgia and east Alabama on Saturday will shift into west
Alabama today. With forecast highs in the upper 90s west of I-65, a
heat advisory will be issued for areas west of I-65.

58/Rose

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Saturday.

Influences from the upper ridge will wane early in the work week as
it retrogrades westward and a trough digs south/east across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A couple of impulses within the trough
will push a cool front southward toward the TN Valley on Monday and
then into Central Alabama on Tuesday. Rain chances will increase
from the north starting on Monday with the highest PoPs translating
southward with the front through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous
showers/storms will be likely along/ahead of the boundary. With
PWATs forecast to be around 2.0 inches, storms will be capable of
very heavy downpours. While most locations can handle quite a bit of
rain (due to the prolonged dry period), any training of storms over
the same area(s) could lead to some localized minor flooding issues.

The front is projected to push into south AL by late Wednesday.
Drier and less humid conditions can be expected across much of the
forecast area mid week in the wake of the frontal passage. However,
some isolated to scattered convection will be possible across the
southeast counties on Thursday due to the proximity of the frontal
boundary. Models continue to indicate another wet period next
weekend as deeper moisture returns to the area and another frontal
boundary approaches from the north.

Monday looks to be the warmest day with temps rising into the
low/mid 90s. Heat indices could approach or exceed 100 degrees, but
should remain below heat advisory criteria of 105 degrees.
Temperatures will largely be near normal during the rest period with
highs generally in the upper 80s and low 90s.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Generally, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Otherwise,
we are left with a few cumulus and the mid and upper level blow
off from the storms overnight. Once again, the model guidance
suggest fog development overnight. There could potentially be some
in the rain areas, but expect temperatures to drop slowly
overnight due to the higher clouds. therefore, confidence in
anything developing remains low and will not mention.

Sunday looks like more scattered convection across the entire
area. Expect that the terminals will be affect at some point and
will add VCTS for all locations somewhere between 19-01z. Any
storms that develop Sunday afternoon have the potential for
strong gusty winds and localized torrential rain.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected again today with hotter
than normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase
Monday/Tuesday as a frontal boundary slides southward across the
forecast area. Some isolated-scattered convection will remain
possible across the southeast Wednesday/Thursday, with drier and
less humid conditions expected across the north. No weather-
related fire weather concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  71  90  73  89 /  40  30  60  40  40
Anniston    95  72  90  72  88 /  40  30  50  40  50
Birmingham  97  73  93  74  90 /  40  30  50  40  50
Tuscaloosa  98  74  95  74  90 /  30  30  40  40  50
Calera      96  72  92  73  88 /  40  30  40  40  50
Auburn      95  72  93  74  88 /  40  30  40  30  60
Montgomery  97  73  95  75  91 /  40  30  40  40  60
Troy        96  70  94  74  91 /  40  30  40  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening For the
following counties: Bibb...Dallas...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Lamar...Marengo...Marion...Perry...Pickens...Sumter...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260633
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
133 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The last remaining rainfall shown on radar reflectivity has just
about dissipated in Madison and Lincoln Counties. Satellite imagery
depicts remnant anvil debris clouds across TN, AL and GA. Watching
to see if any fog or low stratus develops, but nothing so far.
Upstream imagery and streamflow analysis shows a weak
shortwave/vorticity axis along the MS river valley that will be
dropping southeast into our forecast area today. This along with a
surface boundary/convergence zone basically north-south from middle
TN through eastern AL will provide the needed support for scattered
thunderstorms today. The greater POP will be east of I-65, but given
outflow boundaries, it is difficult to rule out activity just about
anywhere today. Forecast soundings appear similar to what was
observed at BMX and OHX this evening, with sufficient CAPE values in
the 2-3k J/kg range to support strong updrafts. D-CAPE values should
reach around 1k J/kg or a bit higher again today to support isolated
downbursts. I won`t rule out some hail as well with ample CAPE noted
in the hail growth zone of storms, despite WBZ heights above 10kft.
The CI/CS shield should remain thin enough for good heating again
today, with readings in the low to mid 90s expected. Suspect clouds
and storms may develop sooner today, so have dropped highs a bit from
yesterday.

Model guidance continues to indicate nocturnal continuance and/or
redevelopment of thunderstorms overnight with the wave/shear axis
basically remaining in place through Monday. On Monday, yet another
wave arrives as well from our northwest, with another one or two to
follow through Tuesday. Went with likely POP on Monday, and high
chance POP on Monday Night and Tuesday, but I suspect if model trends
continue, we may need to increase these POPs as well. Hopefully the
rest of the area will receive beneficial and not excessive rainfall
during this period. However, given slow movement and potential for
repeated thunderstorms, intense downpours could lead to isolated
flash flood events during the next couple of days.

The GFS and ECMWF are much more progressive with the cold front on
Tuesday, bringing drier air to the region Tuesday afternoon. The NAM
is slower and keeps showers and thunderstorms a possibility. Will go
on the low side Tuesday afternoon, then dry by Tuesday evening. We
should see a more pleasant period of weather during the middle of
next week with lower humidity and near seasonal temperatures. A wet
pattern still looks to be setting up by next weekend into the
following week. No significant variances were made from suggested
model blends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
For 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions will continue for much of tonight,
before MVFR vsbys are expected to develop around daybreak due to fog.
A VCTS period was included after 15Z at KHSV, when VFR conditions are
expected to return. Left VCTS out at KMSL, as forcing should be
better east of I-65. Could see MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys if -TSRA occurs at
either TAF site though, especially after 26/18Z.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    96  73  92  72 /  40  30  60  50
Shoals        96  74  91  72 /  30  30  60  50
Vinemont      94  72  91  71 /  30  30  60  50
Fayetteville  94  72  90  71 /  40  30  60  50
Albertville   94  72  90  71 /  40  30  60  50
Fort Payne    93  71  89  70 /  40  40  60  50

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260501 AAC
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 949 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016)
Strong to severe thunderstorms that developed along a boundary late
this afternoon and up until a few hours ago have finally become just
a line of light to moderate showers. This line of showers currently
extends from near Petersburg in Tennessee southeast into the
Geraldine community in Dekalb County. A few isolated showers and
storms have developed in addition over the last hour in northwestern
Alabama as well.

However, the earlier storms have used up much of the available
energy for further development. Therefore this additional activity
will be strong at best and diminishing quickly over the next hour or
two. Gusty winds and brief heavy downpours will still be possible
with any additional storms until around midnight. However, with the
boundary moving slowly east, an isolated shower or storms cannot be
ruled out until after midnight. Raised chance of rain to reflect
current radar and expected trends prior to midnight.

Otherwise, it will be a muggy night with lows only dropping into the
lower 70s in most locations, due to lingering cloud cover. This cloud
cover should keep fog patchy from becoming too impactful in nature
towards daybreak.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
For 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions will continue for much of tonight,
before MVFR vsbys are expected to develop around daybreak due to fog.
A VCTS period was included after 15Z at KHSV, when VFR conditions are
expected to return. Left VCTS out at KMSL, as forcing should be
better east of I-65. Could see MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys if -TSRA occurs at
either TAF site though, especially after 26/18Z.

KTW

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260453
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1153 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR conditions will generally prevail across the
region through the next 24 hours. The main impact will be potential
for isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA that will develop across the
region Sunday afternoon. While it currently appears that the best
coverage will be over inland southwest and south central AL, we did
include VCTS mention in the KMOB/KBFM/KPNS terminal forecasts after
26.18Z. Otherwise light winds continue through early Sunday morning
before becoming south to southwest 5-10 knots Sunday afternoon. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 924 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...The ongoing forecast for tonight looks to be in good shape,
and no significant changes are planned. An upper level ridge of high
pressure will continue to extend across the region through the night,
with dry conditions prevalent. That said, a very isolated shower
cannot be entirely ruled out this evening or overnight, but coverage
should be 10 percent or less, and will leave mention out of the
forecast. A typically warm and muggy night is otherwise expected with
lows in the 70s. /21

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KBMX 260356
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1056 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Been trying to keep up with changing temperatures as the rain
areas develop and die off. As of 830 pm, we are left with one
rather substantial thunderstorm in the northern part of Cherokee
County, some lighter showers southwest of there, but little
remaining elsewhere. Will update again to hold onto the rain
chances in the northeast part of the area for another hour or two,
but I think we can put the rain chances to bed elsewhere.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Generally, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Otherwise,
we are left with a few cumulus and the mid and upper level blow
off from the storms overnight. Once again, the model guidance
suggest fog development overnight. There could potentially be some
in the rain areas, but expect temperatures to drop slowly
overnight due to the higher clouds. therefore, confidence in
anything developing remains low and will not mention.

Sunday looks like more scattered convection across the entire
area. Expect that the terminals will be affect at some point and
will add VCTS for all locations somewhere between 19-01z. Any
storms that develop Sunday afternoon have the potential for
strong gusty winds and localized torrential rain.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Typical summer weather is expected for the next several
days, although hotter than normal conditions are expected
over the weekend. No weather-related fire weather concerns
are expected at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 314 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

Saturday afternoon and tonight.

Diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will continue across
Central Alabama through the remainder of this afternoon and into
the evening hours, before steadily waning in coverage.

Sunday through Wednesday.

Highs in the mid/upper 90Fs are projected for Sunday, with dew
points lowering a bit as boundary-layer heating/mixing evolves.
Heat index indices should peak in the low 100Fs -- just below
heat advisory criteria of 105F. If a heat advisory does become
necessary, it is most probable across the southern counties.
Budding showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day,
within an environment supportive of localized microbursts per
forecast soundings -- deep and moderate-to-strongly unstable CAPE
values, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values. T/Td
spreads in the sub-cloud layer also support this risk. A mention
of isolated strong-to-severe storms will be maintained in the
hazardous weather outlook. Convective activity will persist into
the evening hours before again waning in coverage the deeper we
get into the nighttime hours.

For Monday through Wednesday, an upper-level ridge axis will shift
toward the west as an upper trough moves into the Great Lakes,
mid-Atlantic region. A few impulses will translate through the
upper trough and help push a surface front into Alabama. While
chances for isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms will
exist each day, there should be a steady progression of a `best
chance` corridor from north to south. A hot and muggy air mass
will remain in place initially, with lower-humidity air expected
to arrive behind the frontal passage, mainly across the northern
portions of the coverage area at this time.

89/GSatterwhite

Long term...
Thursday through Saturday.

Remnant boundary will still be across the southern part of the state
on Thursday and isolated to scattered convection will be possible,
in the south. Slightly deeper moisture return across the entire area
on Friday and even better rain chances as we get into Saturday.
Temperatures mid/late week will be closer to normal for late
June/early July.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  94  73  90  73 /  30  30  30  50  40
Anniston    73  94  73  90  72 /  10  30  30  40  40
Birmingham  75  95  75  93  74 /  10  20  30  40  30
Tuscaloosa  75  97  74  96  74 /  10  20  30  40  30
Calera      74  95  75  93  73 /  10  30  30  40  40
Auburn      74  94  74  93  73 /  10  30  30  40  30
Montgomery  75  96  75  96  75 /  10  30  30  30  30
Troy        73  95  74  94  74 /  10  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260249 AAB
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
949 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...TO RAISE POP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms that developed along a boundary late
this afternoon and up until a few hours ago have finally become just
a line of light to moderate showers. This line of showers currently
extends from near Petersburg in Tennessee southeast into the
Geraldine community in Dekalb County. A few isolated showers and
storms have developed in addition over the last hour in northwestern
Alabama as well.

However, the earlier storms have used up much of the available
energy for further development. Therefore this additional activity
will be strong at best and diminishing quickly over the next hour or
two. Gusty winds and brief heavy downpours will still be possible
with any additional storms until around midnight. However, with the
boundary moving slowly east, an isolated shower or storms cannot be
ruled out until after midnight. Raised chance of rain to reflect
current radar and expected trends prior to midnight.

Otherwise, it will be a muggy night with lows only dropping into the
lower 70s in most locations, due to lingering cloud cover. This cloud
cover should keep fog patchy from becoming too impactful in nature
towards daybreak.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 630 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016)
For 00Z TAFs: Showers and storms have moved east KHSV and dissipated
over KMSL over the last few hours. However, cannot rule out a
scattered -TSRA redeveloping before 26/02Z or 26/03Z. However,
confidence that they will directly affect either airport is low, so
only kept a VCTS in forecast through 26/02Z. Expect VFR conditions to
continue unless storms form and move over either terminal. Each
terminal has had some rainfall, so think patchy fog towards daybreak
could lower VSBYS to around 4SM or 5 SM. Otherwise, added gusts to 16
KTS tomorrow after 26/15Z.

KTW

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260224 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
924 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...The ongoing forecast for tonight looks to be in good shape,
and no significant changes are planned. An upper level ridge of high
pressure will continue to extend across the region through the night,
with dry conditions prevalent. That said, a very isolated shower
cannot be entirely ruled out this evening or overnight, but coverage
should be 10 percent or less, and will leave mention out of the
forecast. A typically warm and muggy night is otherwise expected with
lows in the 70s. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...A VFR forecast will generally continue across the
region through the next 24 hours. Seabreeze passage has brought south
to southwest winds around 10 knots at KMOB/KBFM/KPNS late this
afternoon, and these should gradually become light through mid
evening. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop
across the region Sunday. Better chance of development currently
looks to be across south central AL and the interior NW FL Panhandle
Sunday afternoon. Our confidence is low enough to keep convective
mention out of the KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF`s with this issuance, but will
be something to monitor. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...The upper ridge over the area will
gradually retrograde westward through Sunday. This will allow deep
layer moisture levels to increase. The increased moisture combined
with decreasing subsidence will lead to better chances of afternoon
and early evening showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. The highest
rain chances will be across eastern portions of the area where the
influence of the ridge will be less. Outside of any showers and
thunderstorms, temps will remain hot with highs in the mid and upper
90s inland to low 90s along the coast. Heat index values will again
climb into the 101-106 range. Lows tonight remain very muggy, in the
low to mid 70s. /13

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...
Convection developing along a backdoor type front projected to lay across
Southwest Georgia may generate an organized outflow boundary. The pattern
and model runs suggest a potential for a southwestward moving
outflow boundary to propagate thunderstorm activity into the area
Sunday Evening. Enough residual instability(ML CAPEs 500 to 100J/kg)
during the evening hours to generate thunderstorms along its
boundary. Will keep a chance of thunderstorms over our E AL
counties...generally, along and east of the Alabama River and a
slight chance elsewhere. Expect convection to end by around midnight
as boundary weakens and instability becomes minimal.

The upper level ridge continues shifting westward Monday. The closed
500 MB high pressure center over the Arkansas area Sunday night
shifts west to the 4-Corners region Monday afternoon. Layer
precipitable water values rise above normal...ranging from 1.8 to 2.0
inches by Monday afternoon. A shortwave trough extending from the
Great Lakes Region southwestward over the Midwestern states digs
southeastward carving back the ridge and pushing a front southward.
By Monday afternoon model guidance has a frontal boundary lying
across TN and extending westward over OK. A prefrontal trough
develops over our northern counties in AL and MS (North of HWY
84). As instability increases during the day Monday thunderstorms
will develop along this prefrontal boundary as well as along the sea
breeze boundary pushing northward from the coast. A chance of
thunderstorms continues Monday night as shortwave energy moving
through the northwesterly flow aloft couples with the surface area of
low pressure overlying the area and triggers bouts of convection.

Thunderstorm activity is forecast to increase Tuesday as an upper
level trough is expected to deepen over the region and the surface
front pushes southward to around HWY 84. Thunderstorms developing
along this boundary will move southeastward with the northwesterly
mid level steering flow. The boundary is projected to slowly move south
off the coast Tuesday night.

Temperatures will trend warmer than normal and heat indices in the
102 to 107 degree range Monday. Increased convection Tuesday should
temper daytime highs and heat indices. /08

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Model consensus generally
depict shortwave energy carving out a longwave trough over the
region by Wednesday. The longwave trough is then forecast to remain
over the area through Saturday. The forecast area is projected to
remain the west of the longwave trough axis. As a result the
atmosphere dries out significantly Wednesday night as deep layer and
northerly flow develops aloft...PWATS lower to 1 to 1.5 inches
across the area. However, the weak frontal boundary is projected to
linger over the area Wednesday and Thursday and will be reinforced by
the sea breeze and remain a focus for convection. The front then
gradually washes out and shifts north. Expect scattered thunderstorm
activity Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with coverage and
intensity decreasing overnight. Diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms are then expected through Saturday.

Temperatures are expected to trend near climatological norms. /08

MARINE...High pressure will remain over the marine area through
early next week. This will continue to result in generally light
onshore flow...enhanced in the afternoon by the seabreeze. Little
change in seas is expected. /13

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KBMX 260138
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
838 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Evening Update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Been trying to keep up with changing temperatures as the rain
areas develop and die off. As of 830 pm, we are left with one
rather substantial thunderstorm in the northern part of Cherokee
County, some lighter showers southwest of there, but little
remaining elsewhere. Will update again to hold onto the rain
chances in the northeast part of the area for another hour or two,
but I think we can put the rain chances to bed elsewhere.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Generally, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for
the next few hours across Central Alabama. Most of the activity
had very little movement and was propagating along outflow
boundaries. Since its still quite warm and unstable, these
outflows may generate new storms for a few hours. Left VCTS
mention in at all but MGM/TOI and will monitor the south closely.

Otherwise, we are left with a few cumulus and the mid and upper
level blow off from the storms overnight. Once again, the model
guidance suggest fog development overnight. There could
potentially be some in the rain areas, but overall did not include
it in the terminals.

Sunday looks like more scattered convection across the entire
area. Expect that the terminals will be affect at some point and
will add when we get closer in time.

Any storms that develop this evening and Sunday have the
potential for strong gusty winds.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Typical summer weather is expected for the next several
days, although hotter than normal conditions are expected
over the weekend. No weather-related fire weather concerns
are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  94  73  90  73 /  20  30  30  50  40
Anniston    73  94  73  90  72 /  20  30  30  40  40
Birmingham  75  95  75  93  74 /  20  20  30  40  30
Tuscaloosa  75  97  74  96  74 /  20  20  30  40  30
Calera      74  95  75  93  73 /  20  30  30  40  40
Auburn      74  94  74  93  73 /  20  30  30  40  30
Montgomery  75  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  30  30  30
Troy        73  95  74  94  74 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chilton...Coosa...
Dallas...Elmore...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...
Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...
Pickens...Pike...Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 252359
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
659 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...A VFR forecast will generally continue across the
region through the next 24 hours. Seabreeze passage has brought south
to southwest winds around 10 knots at KMOB/KBFM/KPNS late this
afternoon, and these should gradually become light through mid
evening. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop
across the region Sunday. Better chance of development currently
looks to be across south central AL and the interior NW FL Panhandle
Sunday afternoon. Our confidence is low enough to keep convective
mention out of the KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF`s with this issuance, but will
be something to monitor. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...The upper ridge over the area will
gradually retrograde westward through Sunday. This will allow deep
layer moisture levels to increase. The increased moisture combined
with decreasing subsidence will lead to better chances of afternoon
and early evening showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. The highest
rain chances will be across eastern portions of the area where the
influence of the ridge will be less. Outside of any showers and
thunderstorms, temps will remain hot with highs in the mid and upper
90s inland to low 90s along the coast. Heat index values will again
climb into the 101-106 range. Lows tonight remain very muggy, in the
low to mid 70s. /13

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...
Convection developing along a backdoor type front projected to lay across
Southwest Georgia may generate an organized outflow boundary. The pattern
and model runs suggest a potential for a southwestward moving
outflow boundary to propagate thunderstorm activity into the area
Sunday Evening. Enough residual instability(ML CAPEs 500 to 100J/kg)
during the evening hours to generate thunderstorms along its
boundary. Will keep a chance of thunderstorms over our E AL
counties...generally, along and east of the Alabama River and a
slight chance elsewhere. Expect convection to end by around midnight
as boundary weakens and instability becomes minimal.

The upper level ridge continues shifting westward Monday. The closed
500 MB high pressure center over the Arkansas area Sunday night
shifts west to the 4-Corners region Monday afternoon. Layer
precipitable water values rise above normal...ranging from 1.8 to 2.0
inches by Monday afternoon. A shortwave trough extending from the
Great Lakes Region southwestward over the Midwestern states digs
southeastward carving back the ridge and pushing a front southward.
By Monday afternoon model guidance has a frontal boundary lying
across TN and extending westward over OK. A prefrontal trough
develops over our northern counties in AL and MS (North of HWY
84). As instability increases during the day Monday thunderstorms
will develop along this prefrontal boundary as well as along the sea
breeze boundary pushing northward from the coast. A chance of
thunderstorms continues Monday night as shortwave energy moving
through the northwesterly flow aloft couples with the surface area of
low pressure overlying the area and triggers bouts of convection.

Thunderstorm activity is forecast to increase Tuesday as an upper
level trough is expected to deepen over the region and the surface
front pushes southward to around HWY 84. Thunderstorms developing
along this boundary will move southeastward with the northwesterly
mid level steering flow. The boundary is projected to slowly move south
off the coast Tuesday night.

Temperatures will trend warmer than normal and heat indices in the
102 to 107 degree range Monday. Increased convection Tuesday should
temper daytime highs and heat indices. /08

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Model consensus generally
depict shortwave energy carving out a longwave trough over the
region by Wednesday. The longwave trough is then forecast to remain
over the area through Saturday. The forecast area is projected to
remain the west of the longwave trough axis. As a result the
atmosphere dries out significantly Wednesday night as deep layer and
northerly flow develops aloft...PWATS lower to 1 to 1.5 inches
across the area. However, the weak frontal boundary is projected to
linger over the area Wednesday and Thursday and will be reinforced by
the sea breeze and remain a focus for convection. The front then
gradually washes out and shifts north. Expect scattered thunderstorm
activity Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with coverage and
intensity decreasing overnight. Diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms are then expected through Saturday.

Temperatures are expected to trend near climatological norms. /08

MARINE...High pressure will remain over the marine area through
early next week. This will continue to result in generally light
onshore flow...enhanced in the afternoon by the seabreeze. Little
change in seas is expected. /13

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KBMX 252343
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
643 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Saturday afternoon and tonight.

Diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will continue across
Central Alabama through the remainder of this afternoon and into
the evening hours, before steadily waning in coverage.

Sunday through Wednesday.

Highs in the mid/upper 90Fs are projected for Sunday, with dew
points lowering a bit as boundary-layer heating/mixing evolves.
Heat index indices should peak in the low 100Fs -- just below
heat advisory criteria of 105F. If a heat advisory does become
necessary, it is most probable across the southern counties.
Budding showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day,
within an environment supportive of localized microbursts per
forecast soundings -- deep and moderate-to-strongly unstable CAPE
values, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values. T/Td
spreads in the sub-cloud layer also support this risk. A mention
of isolated strong-to-severe storms will be maintained in the
hazardous weather outlook. Convective activity will persist into
the evening hours before again waning in coverage the deeper we
get into the nighttime hours.

For Monday through Wednesday, an upper-level ridge axis will shift
toward the west as an upper trough moves into the Great Lakes,
mid-Atlantic region. A few impulses will translate through the
upper trough and help push a surface front into Alabama. While
chances for isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms will
exist each day, there should be a steady progression of a `best
chance` corridor from north to south. A hot and muggy air mass
will remain in place initially, with lower-humidity air expected
to arrive behind the frontal passage, mainly across the northern
portions of the coverage area at this time.

89/GSatterwhite

Long term...
Thursday through Saturday.

Remnant boundary will still be across the southern part of the state
on Thursday and isolated to scattered convection will be possible,
in the south. Slightly deeper moisture return across the entire area
on Friday and even better rain chances as we get into Saturday.
Temperatures mid/late week will be closer to normal for late
June/early July.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Generally, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for
the next few hours across Central Alabama. Most of the activity
had very little movement and was propagating along outflow
boundaries. Since its still quite warm and unstable, these
outflows may generate new storms for a few hours. Left VCTS
mention in at all but MGM/TOI and will monitor the south closely.

Otherwise, we are left with a few cumulus and the mid and upper
level blow off from the storms overnight. Once again, the model
guidance suggest fog development overnight. There could
potentially be some in the rain areas, but overall did not include
it in the terminals.

Sunday looks like more scattered convection across the entire
area. Expect that the terminals will be affect at some point and
will add when we get closer in time.

Any storms that develop this evening and Sunday have the
potential for strong gusty winds.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Typical summer weather is expected for the next several
days, although hotter than normal conditions are expected
over the weekend. No weather-related fire weather concerns
are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  94  73  90  73 /  20  30  30  50  40
Anniston    73  94  73  90  72 /  20  30  30  40  40
Birmingham  75  95  75  93  74 /  20  20  30  40  30
Tuscaloosa  75  97  74  96  74 /  20  20  30  40  30
Calera      74  95  75  93  73 /  20  30  30  40  40
Auburn      74  94  74  93  73 /  20  30  30  40  30
Montgomery  75  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  30  30  30
Troy        73  95  74  94  74 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chilton...Coosa...
Dallas...Elmore...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...
Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...
Pickens...Pike...Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 252330 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
630 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016)
The subtropical high remains in place over the mid-south this
afternoon, generally centered over the lower Mississippi valley.
The subsidence has helped to make it a very warm day; as of 2 PM, all
but one site is in the 90s, and five areas sites have heat indices of
at least 103 F. However the subsidence has not been enough to
completely quash air mass thunderstorms, due in part to a weak
convergence axis extending over northwest Alabama.

Isolated convection should subside this evening, and low temperatures
tonight should be a degree or two above persistence. As the upper
high retrogrades into the ArkLaTex Sunday, a weak wedge front will
push westward into northeast Alabama. This combination may help spark
a few more showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. It may also be
slightly not quite as hot. Model guidance for both highs and
dewpoints are just a degree or two lower, and this leaves maximum
forecast heat index readings below 105 for all but a few spots.
Therefore, after discussion with neighboring offices, the heat
advisory will be removed for tomorrow, and instead will expire at 9
PM tonight. It will still be very hot, and it is still important to
stay hydrated and take frequent breaks.

The cold front currently over the Plains/Upper Midwest will push
southeast over the next 48 hours, dropping into Tennessee by midday
Monday. Convergence with this front will be sufficient to spark
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. A strong wind gust
or two cannot be ruled out, but with minimal shear, modest Downdraft
CAPE, and high precipitable water expected, storms will be mainly
heavy rain producers.

Rain chances will linger at least into Monday night. There is some
disagreement about when the front will push through; most models have
drying occurring by 12Z Tuesday, while the ECMWF is 6-12 hours
slower. The ECMWF may be right in this instance but for now the
forecast will continue with the model consensus, tapering PoPs off by
12Z Tuesday. Cold and dry advection behind the front will send
temperatures plummeting into the upper 80s for Tuesday highs, and dew
points into the lower 60s by Tuesday evening. Low temperatures
Wednesday morning may actually fall below 70.

Dry weather will continue through roughly Friday, though agreement on
moisture return is not very good yet. Rain chances could resume
Friday afternoon into Saturday as northwest flow and an eastern CONUS
trough remain in place. Temperatures will remain closer to seasonal
averages, with highs around 90 and lows in the mid- upper 60s.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
For 00Z TAFs: Showers and storms have moved east KHSV and dissipated
over KMSL over the last few hours. However, cannot rule out a
scattered -TSRA redeveloping before 26/02Z or 26/03Z. However,
confidence that they will directly affect either airport is low, so
only kept a VCTS in forecast through 26/02Z. Expect VFR conditions to
continue unless storms form and move over either terminal. Each
terminal has had some rainfall, so think patchy fog towards daybreak
could lower VSBYS to around 4SM or 5 SM. Otherwise, added gusts to 16
KTS tomorrow after 26/15Z.

KTW

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 252330 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
630 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016)
The subtropical high remains in place over the mid-south this
afternoon, generally centered over the lower Mississippi valley.
The subsidence has helped to make it a very warm day; as of 2 PM, all
but one site is in the 90s, and five areas sites have heat indices of
at least 103 F. However the subsidence has not been enough to
completely quash air mass thunderstorms, due in part to a weak
convergence axis extending over northwest Alabama.

Isolated convection should subside this evening, and low temperatures
tonight should be a degree or two above persistence. As the upper
high retrogrades into the ArkLaTex Sunday, a weak wedge front will
push westward into northeast Alabama. This combination may help spark
a few more showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. It may also be
slightly not quite as hot. Model guidance for both highs and
dewpoints are just a degree or two lower, and this leaves maximum
forecast heat index readings below 105 for all but a few spots.
Therefore, after discussion with neighboring offices, the heat
advisory will be removed for tomorrow, and instead will expire at 9
PM tonight. It will still be very hot, and it is still important to
stay hydrated and take frequent breaks.

The cold front currently over the Plains/Upper Midwest will push
southeast over the next 48 hours, dropping into Tennessee by midday
Monday. Convergence with this front will be sufficient to spark
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. A strong wind gust
or two cannot be ruled out, but with minimal shear, modest Downdraft
CAPE, and high precipitable water expected, storms will be mainly
heavy rain producers.

Rain chances will linger at least into Monday night. There is some
disagreement about when the front will push through; most models have
drying occurring by 12Z Tuesday, while the ECMWF is 6-12 hours
slower. The ECMWF may be right in this instance but for now the
forecast will continue with the model consensus, tapering PoPs off by
12Z Tuesday. Cold and dry advection behind the front will send
temperatures plummeting into the upper 80s for Tuesday highs, and dew
points into the lower 60s by Tuesday evening. Low temperatures
Wednesday morning may actually fall below 70.

Dry weather will continue through roughly Friday, though agreement on
moisture return is not very good yet. Rain chances could resume
Friday afternoon into Saturday as northwest flow and an eastern CONUS
trough remain in place. Temperatures will remain closer to seasonal
averages, with highs around 90 and lows in the mid- upper 60s.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
For 00Z TAFs: Showers and storms have moved east KHSV and dissipated
over KMSL over the last few hours. However, cannot rule out a
scattered -TSRA redeveloping before 26/02Z or 26/03Z. However,
confidence that they will directly affect either airport is low, so
only kept a VCTS in forecast through 26/02Z. Expect VFR conditions to
continue unless storms form and move over either terminal. Each
terminal has had some rainfall, so think patchy fog towards daybreak
could lower VSBYS to around 4SM or 5 SM. Otherwise, added gusts to 16
KTS tomorrow after 26/15Z.

KTW

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 252036
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
336 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...The upper ridge over the area will
gradually retrograde westward through Sunday. This will allow deep
layer moisture levels to increase. The increased moisture combined
with decreasing subsidence will lead to better chances of afternoon
and early evening showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. The highest
rain chances will be across eastern portions of the area where the
influence of the ridge will be less. Outside of any showers and
thunderstorms, temps will remain hot with highs in the mid and upper
90s inland to low 90s along the coast. Heat index values will again
climb into the 101-106 range. Lows tonight remain very muggy, in the
low to mid 70s. /13

.SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...
Convection developing along a backdoor type front projected to lay across
Southwest Georgia may generate an organized outflow boundary. The pattern
and model runs suggest a potential for a southwestward moving
outflow boundary to propagate thunderstorm activity into the area
Sunday Evening. Enough residual instability(ML CAPEs 500 to 100J/kg)
during the evening hours to generate thunderstorms along its
boundary. Will keep a chance of thunderstorms over our E AL
counties...generally, along and east of the Alabama River and a
slight chance elsewhere. Expect convection to end by around midnight
as boundary weakens and instability becomes minimal.

The upper level ridge continues shifting westward Monday. The closed
500 MB high pressure center over the Arkansas area Sunday night
shifts west to the 4-Corners region Monday afternoon. Layer
precipitable water values rise above normal...ranging from 1.8 to 2.0
inches by Monday afternoon. A shortwave trough extending from the
Great Lakes Region southwestward over the Midwestern states digs
southeastward carving back the ridge and pushing a front southward.
By Monday afternoon model guidance has a frontal boundary lying
across TN and extending westward over OK. A prefrontal trough
develops over our northern counties in AL and MS (North of HWY
84). As instability increases during the day Monday thunderstorms
will develop along this prefrontal boundary as well as along the sea
breeze boundary pushing northward from the coast. A chance of
thunderstorms continues Monday night as shortwave energy moving
through the northwesterly flow aloft couples with the surface area of
low pressure overlying the area and triggers bouts of convection.

Thunderstorm activity is forecast to increase Tuesday as an upper
level trough is expected to deepen over the region and the surface
front pushes southward to around HWY 84. Thunderstorms developing
along this boundary will move southeastward with the northwesterly
mid level steering flow. The boundary is projected to slowly move south
off the coast Tuesday night.

Temperatures will trend warmer than normal and heat indices in the
102 to 107 degree range Monday. Increased convection Tuesday should
temper daytime highs and heat indices. /08

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Model consensus generally
depict shortwave energy carving out a longwave trough over the
region by Wednesday. The longwave trough is then forecast to remain
over the area through Saturday. The forecast area is projected to
remain the west of the longwave trough axis. As a result the
atmosphere dries out significantly Wednesday night as deep layer and
northerly flow develops aloft...PWATS lower to 1 to 1.5 inches
across the area. However, the weak frontal boundary is projected to
linger over the area Wednesday and Thursday and will be reinforced by
the sea breeze and remain a focus for convection. The front then
gradually washes out and shifts north. Expect scattered thunderstorm
activity Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with coverage and
intensity decreasing overnight. Diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms are then expected through Saturday.

Temperatures are expected to trend near climatological norms. /08

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will remain over the marine area through
early next week. This will continue to result in generally light
onshore flow...enhanced in the afternoon by the seabreeze. Little
change in seas is expected. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  95  75  93 /  10  20  20  40
Pensacola   76  92  76  92 /  10  20  20  30
Destin      78  90  78  90 /  10  20  20  30
Evergreen   73  97  73  96 /  10  30  30  40
Waynesboro  72  95  73  96 /  10  20  20  40
Camden      74  97  74  96 /  10  20  30  40
Crestview   73  97  73  96 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KBMX 252014
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
314 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Saturday afternoon and tonight.

Diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will continue across
Central Alabama through the remainder of this afternoon and into
the evening hours, before steadily waning in coverage.

Sunday through Wednesday.

Highs in the mid/upper 90Fs are projected for Sunday, with dew
points lowering a bit as boundary-layer heating/mixing evolves.
Heat index indices should peak in the low 100Fs -- just below
heat advisory criteria of 105F. If a heat advisory does become
necessary, it is most probable across the southern counties.
Budding showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day,
within an environment supportive of localized microbursts per
forecast soundings -- deep and moderate-to-strongly unstable CAPE
values, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values. T/Td
spreads in the sub-cloud layer also support this risk. A mention
of isolated strong-to-severe storms will be maintained in the
hazardous weather outlook. Convective activity will persist into
the evening hours before again waning in coverage the deeper we
get into the nighttime hours.

For Monday through Wednesday, an upper-level ridge axis will shift
toward the west as an upper trough moves into the Great Lakes,
mid-Atlantic region. A few impulses will translate through the
upper trough and help push a surface front into Alabama. While
chances for isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms will
exist each day, there should be a steady progression of a `best
chance` corridor from north to south. A hot and muggy air mass
will remain in place initially, with lower-humidity air expected
to arrive behind the frontal passage, mainly across the northern
portions of the coverage area at this time.

89/GSatterwhite

Long term...
Thursday through Saturday.

Remnant boundary will still be across the southern part of the state
on Thursday and isolated to scattered convection will be possible,
in the south. Slightly deeper moisture return across the entire area
on Friday and even better rain chances as we get into Saturday.
Temperatures mid/late week will be closer to normal for late
June/early July.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Small update to all terminals to include afternoon convection,
otherwise, generally VFR conditions will prevail.

17/KLAWS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Typical summer weather is expected for the next several
days, although hotter than normal conditions are expected
over the weekend. No weather-related fire weather concerns
are expected at this time.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chilton...Coosa...
Dallas...Elmore...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...
Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...
Pickens...Pike...Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 252000
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The subtropical high remains in place over the mid-south this
afternoon, generally centered over the lower Mississippi valley.
The subsidence has helped to make it a very warm day; as of 2 PM, all
but one site is in the 90s, and five areas sites have heat indices of
at least 103 F. However the subsidence has not been enough to
completely quash air mass thunderstorms, due in part to a weak
convergence axis extending over northwest Alabama.

Isolated convection should subside this evening, and low temperatures
tonight should be a degree or two above persistence. As the upper
high retrogrades into the ArkLaTex Sunday, a weak wedge front will
push westward into northeast Alabama. This combination may help spark
a few more showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. It may also be
slightly not quite as hot. Model guidance for both highs and
dewpoints are just a degree or two lower, and this leaves maximum
forecast heat index readings below 105 for all but a few spots.
Therefore, after discussion with neighboring offices, the heat
advisory will be removed for tomorrow, and instead will expire at 9
PM tonight. It will still be very hot, and it is still important to
stay hydrated and take frequent breaks.

The cold front currently over the Plains/Upper Midwest will push
southeast over the next 48 hours, dropping into Tennessee by midday
Monday. Convergence with this front will be sufficient to spark
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. A strong wind gust
or two cannot be ruled out, but with minimal shear, modest Downdraft
CAPE, and high precipitable water expected, storms will be mainly
heavy rain producers.

Rain chances will linger at least into Monday night. There is some
disagreement about when the front will push through; most models have
drying occurring by 12Z Tuesday, while the ECMWF is 6-12 hours
slower. The ECMWF may be right in this instance but for now the
forecast will continue with the model consensus, tapering PoPs off by
12Z Tuesday. Cold and dry advection behind the front will send
temperatures plummeting into the upper 80s for Tuesday highs, and dew
points into the lower 60s by Tuesday evening. Low temperatures
Wednesday morning may actually fall below 70.

Dry weather will continue through roughly Friday, though agreement on
moisture return is not very good yet. Rain chances could resume
Friday afternoon into Saturday as northwest flow and an eastern CONUS
trough remain in place. Temperatures will remain closer to seasonal
averages, with highs around 90 and lows in the mid- upper 60s.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016)
For 18Z TAFs: Will continue with VFR conditions at both HSV and MSL
throughout the forecast period. Expect winds to become light and
variable after about 02Z tonight. Scattered cumulus clouds around
4kft should again form by 15z on Sunday with light southeast to south
winds expected at HSV and MSL to round out the forecast period.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    75  97  73  93 /  20  30  30  50
Shoals        76  97  74  93 /  20  20  20  50
Vinemont      75  95  72  92 /  20  30  30  50
Fayetteville  74  95  72  90 /  20  30  30  50
Albertville   74  94  72  90 /  20  30  30  60
Fort Payne    73  94  71  90 /  20  30  30  60

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




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