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000
FXUS64 KHUN 230854
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A
LARGE MCS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
WRN KY. TEMPS ARND THE TN VALLEY WERE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS ARND 70. ALSO PATCHY FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MRNG.

TEMPS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING
THE UPPER 90S. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MARGINAL TODAY BUT
SINCE IT IS THE WEEKEND AND THIS IS A FAIRLY LONG STRETCH OF MID 90S
TEMPS...WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW. ANYWAY YOU CUT IT...IT
WILL BE A HOT/HUMID DAY. WILL KEEP A LOW POP ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES
THIS AFTN/EVENING DUE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER KY MOVING SE ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

BY SUNDAY...WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DUE TO A BACKDOOR TYPE OF
CDFNT...SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
CWA. IF GFS IS CORRECT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MRNG. AS A DRIER/STABLE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...THE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF
BY THE AFTN. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRY AND LESS HUMID WX CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL VALUES. ALSO GFS SHOWS A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST THAT SHOULD NOT
HAVE ANY AFFECT ON OUR WX ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. STAY TUNED.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A CDFNT ENTERING NW AL BY THURSDAY AFTN
AND OUT OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTN. WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE CDFNT OVER
THE MIDWEST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IF GFS IS ON THE MONEY...NEXT
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE NICE ONE...WITH NO PCPN AND TEMPS IN THE
80S/LOWS IN THE 60S. WE WILL SEE.

07



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1218 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION LIKELY AT BOTH TERMINALS
BETWEEN 08-12Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    96  73  94  73 /  10  10  20  20
SHOALS        97  74  96  74 /  10  10  20  20
VINEMONT      96  73  94  73 /  10  10  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  95  72  92  72 /  20  20  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   96  76  94  71 /  10  10  30  20
FORT PAYNE    94  73  93  72 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230854
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A
LARGE MCS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
WRN KY. TEMPS ARND THE TN VALLEY WERE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS ARND 70. ALSO PATCHY FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MRNG.

TEMPS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING
THE UPPER 90S. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MARGINAL TODAY BUT
SINCE IT IS THE WEEKEND AND THIS IS A FAIRLY LONG STRETCH OF MID 90S
TEMPS...WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW. ANYWAY YOU CUT IT...IT
WILL BE A HOT/HUMID DAY. WILL KEEP A LOW POP ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES
THIS AFTN/EVENING DUE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER KY MOVING SE ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

BY SUNDAY...WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DUE TO A BACKDOOR TYPE OF
CDFNT...SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
CWA. IF GFS IS CORRECT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MRNG. AS A DRIER/STABLE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...THE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF
BY THE AFTN. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRY AND LESS HUMID WX CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL VALUES. ALSO GFS SHOWS A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST THAT SHOULD NOT
HAVE ANY AFFECT ON OUR WX ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. STAY TUNED.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A CDFNT ENTERING NW AL BY THURSDAY AFTN
AND OUT OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTN. WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE CDFNT OVER
THE MIDWEST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IF GFS IS ON THE MONEY...NEXT
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE NICE ONE...WITH NO PCPN AND TEMPS IN THE
80S/LOWS IN THE 60S. WE WILL SEE.

07



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1218 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION LIKELY AT BOTH TERMINALS
BETWEEN 08-12Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    96  73  94  73 /  10  10  20  20
SHOALS        97  74  96  74 /  10  10  20  20
VINEMONT      96  73  94  73 /  10  10  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  95  72  92  72 /  20  20  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   96  76  94  71 /  10  10  30  20
FORT PAYNE    94  73  93  72 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230518 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1218 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 936 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
QUIET, WARM, AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
LOW 70S AS DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED, AND AN INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED.

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS LOOKS GOOD,
AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TREND ADJUSTMENTS. IN ADDITION, A CLEAR
NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
2-4 DEGREE RANGE, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG RIVERS,
LAKES, AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SO, HAVE ADDED THAT INTO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION LIKELY AT BOTH TERMINALS
BETWEEN 08-12Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230518 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1218 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 936 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
QUIET, WARM, AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
LOW 70S AS DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED, AND AN INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED.

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS LOOKS GOOD,
AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TREND ADJUSTMENTS. IN ADDITION, A CLEAR
NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
2-4 DEGREE RANGE, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG RIVERS,
LAKES, AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SO, HAVE ADDED THAT INTO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION LIKELY AT BOTH TERMINALS
BETWEEN 08-12Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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000
FXUS64 KBMX 230500
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOW THAT THE HEAT OF THE DAY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WILL
FOCUS ON THE WORD OF THE DAY FOR SATURDAY...HOT. UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO 108
DEGREES. SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN MUCH LIKE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE MOISTURE RETURN IF ONE AREA WAS
PREFERRED IT WOULD BE THE NORTHEAST AS A BACKDOOR ENTRANCE OF
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE BEST MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE COVERAGE THAN FORECAST BASED ON
TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARIES IN PLACE. UPDATES FOR THE NIGHT HAVE
BEEN SENT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BIG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS COVERAGE.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 230500
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOW THAT THE HEAT OF THE DAY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WILL
FOCUS ON THE WORD OF THE DAY FOR SATURDAY...HOT. UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO 108
DEGREES. SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN MUCH LIKE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE MOISTURE RETURN IF ONE AREA WAS
PREFERRED IT WOULD BE THE NORTHEAST AS A BACKDOOR ENTRANCE OF
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE BEST MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE COVERAGE THAN FORECAST BASED ON
TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARIES IN PLACE. UPDATES FOR THE NIGHT HAVE
BEEN SENT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BIG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS COVERAGE.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 230454 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1154 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED
STORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. 34/JFB

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

.DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...HOT...HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UMBRELLAS THE REGION. DANGEROUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 106 TO 110 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND RETURN LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MINOR WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MANAGE TO RELEASE SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY OVERLYING THE REGION. /08 JVW

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANY ISOLATED STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM
74 TO 79...THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE BEING CLOSEST TO THE COAST.
/10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET
ACROSS THE REGION... AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY
BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES TREND DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND IN
PROBABILITIES OFFERED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THE BETTER CHANCES
LOOKING TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS GULF MOISTURE OPENS UP AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21 /10

MARINE...GENERALLY A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WIND FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AND WAVES BUILDING BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. /08

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 230454 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1154 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED
STORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. 34/JFB

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

.DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...HOT...HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UMBRELLAS THE REGION. DANGEROUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 106 TO 110 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND RETURN LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MINOR WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MANAGE TO RELEASE SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY OVERLYING THE REGION. /08 JVW

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANY ISOLATED STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM
74 TO 79...THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE BEING CLOSEST TO THE COAST.
/10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET
ACROSS THE REGION... AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY
BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES TREND DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND IN
PROBABILITIES OFFERED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THE BETTER CHANCES
LOOKING TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS GULF MOISTURE OPENS UP AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21 /10

MARINE...GENERALLY A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WIND FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AND WAVES BUILDING BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. /08

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 230236
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
936 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOW THAT THE HEAT OF THE DAY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WILL
FOCUS ON THE WORD OF THE DAY FOR SATURDAY...HOT. UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO 108
DEGREES. SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN MUCH LIKE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE MOISTURE RETURN IF ONE AREA WAS
PREFERRED IT WOULD BE THE NORTHEAST AS A BACKDOOR ENTRANCE OF
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE BEST MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE COVERAGE THAN FORECAST BASED ON
TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARIES IN PLACE. UPDATES FOR THE NIGHT HAVE
BEEN SENT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BIG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THERE`S AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF SOME HAZE OR LIGHT FOG BRIEFLY RESTRICTING VISIBILITY DOWN TO
4 OR 5 MILES BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. BUT OTHER THAN AT TROY...I
THINK THOSE CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

THE MAIN IMPACT THIS WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE THE
HEAT. AS OF 2 PM...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ALREADY AT 105 IN THE
MONTGOMERY AREA AND IN EUFAULA WITH VALUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA GENERALLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
TO THE LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS AFTER 7PM
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

EXPECT TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY. MODELS INDICATE
THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 22 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH IS OVER
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. THEREFORE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. EXPECT TOMORROW WILL BE THE
BEST DAY FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK. AS THE LAST
FORECAST DISCUSSION STATED...IT HAS BEEN SOMETIME SINCE ANY OF THE
CLIMATE SITES HAVE BEEN OVER 100. PW VALUES FOR TOMORROW ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT OF A CAP WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE BIG NEWS WILL BE THE HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 105-108 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE ARE
SEVERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR THIS WEEKEND AND PLEASE TAKE
THE NECESSARY HEAT PRECAUTIONS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SET UP WILL BRING IN A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR TO EAST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A MOISTURE GRADIENT
AS THE WEDGE MOVES IN ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S WHERE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN HIGH AS THE PATTERN REMAINS HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF OVER 105. THEREFORE...A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 40 PERCENT. DUE TO THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY
TRAVERSE THE STATE. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
HAVE WENT NEAR CLIMO POPS IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE MODEL
DISCREPANCY.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  98  72  93  71 /  10  10  10  50  40
ANNISTON    72  98  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  98  75  96  73 /  10  10  10  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  73  99  73  99  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
CALERA      74  98  74  97  73 /  10  10  10  30  30
AUBURN      75  98  75  94  72 /  10  10  10  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75 100  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
TROY        73  98  73  97  73 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 230236 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
936 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD PATCHY FOG AND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET, WARM, AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
LOW 70S AS DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED, AND AN INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED.

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS LOOKS GOOD,
AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TREND ADJUSTMENTS. IN ADDITION, A CLEAR
NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
2-4 DEGREE RANGE, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG RIVERS,
LAKES, AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SO, HAVE ADDED THAT INTO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 629 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION EXPECTED BTWN 08-12Z THAT
MAY LOWER CAT TO MVFR/IFR.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230236 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
936 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD PATCHY FOG AND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET, WARM, AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
LOW 70S AS DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED, AND AN INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED.

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS LOOKS GOOD,
AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TREND ADJUSTMENTS. IN ADDITION, A CLEAR
NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
2-4 DEGREE RANGE, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG RIVERS,
LAKES, AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SO, HAVE ADDED THAT INTO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 629 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION EXPECTED BTWN 08-12Z THAT
MAY LOWER CAT TO MVFR/IFR.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230236 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
936 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD PATCHY FOG AND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET, WARM, AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
LOW 70S AS DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED, AND AN INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED.

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS LOOKS GOOD,
AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TREND ADJUSTMENTS. IN ADDITION, A CLEAR
NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
2-4 DEGREE RANGE, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG RIVERS,
LAKES, AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SO, HAVE ADDED THAT INTO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 629 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION EXPECTED BTWN 08-12Z THAT
MAY LOWER CAT TO MVFR/IFR.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 230236 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
936 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD PATCHY FOG AND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET, WARM, AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
LOW 70S AS DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED, AND AN INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED.

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS LOOKS GOOD,
AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TREND ADJUSTMENTS. IN ADDITION, A CLEAR
NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
2-4 DEGREE RANGE, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG RIVERS,
LAKES, AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SO, HAVE ADDED THAT INTO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 629 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION EXPECTED BTWN 08-12Z THAT
MAY LOWER CAT TO MVFR/IFR.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 230002 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
702 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND WILL LEAVE VCTS OUT OF THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

..DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...HOT...HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UMBRELLAS THE REGION. DANGEROUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 106 TO 110 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND RETURN LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MINOR WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MANAGE TO RELEASE SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY OVERLYING THE REGION. /08 JVW

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANY ISOLATED STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM
74 TO 79...THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE BEING CLOSEST TO THE COAST.
/10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET
ACROSS THE REGION... AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY
BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES TREND DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND IN
PROBABILITIES OFFERED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THE BETTER CHANCES
LOOKING TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS GULF MOISTURE OPENS UP AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21 /10

MARINE...GENERALLY A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WIND FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AND WAVES BUILDING BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. /08

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 230002 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
702 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND WILL LEAVE VCTS OUT OF THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

..DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...HOT...HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UMBRELLAS THE REGION. DANGEROUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 106 TO 110 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND RETURN LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MINOR WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MANAGE TO RELEASE SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY OVERLYING THE REGION. /08 JVW

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANY ISOLATED STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM
74 TO 79...THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE BEING CLOSEST TO THE COAST.
/10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET
ACROSS THE REGION... AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY
BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES TREND DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND IN
PROBABILITIES OFFERED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THE BETTER CHANCES
LOOKING TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS GULF MOISTURE OPENS UP AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21 /10

MARINE...GENERALLY A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WIND FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AND WAVES BUILDING BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. /08

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 230002 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
702 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND WILL LEAVE VCTS OUT OF THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

..DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...HOT...HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UMBRELLAS THE REGION. DANGEROUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 106 TO 110 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND RETURN LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MINOR WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MANAGE TO RELEASE SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY OVERLYING THE REGION. /08 JVW

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANY ISOLATED STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM
74 TO 79...THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE BEING CLOSEST TO THE COAST.
/10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET
ACROSS THE REGION... AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY
BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES TREND DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND IN
PROBABILITIES OFFERED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THE BETTER CHANCES
LOOKING TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS GULF MOISTURE OPENS UP AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21 /10

MARINE...GENERALLY A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WIND FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AND WAVES BUILDING BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. /08

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 230002 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
702 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND WILL LEAVE VCTS OUT OF THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

..DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...HOT...HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UMBRELLAS THE REGION. DANGEROUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 106 TO 110 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND RETURN LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MINOR WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MANAGE TO RELEASE SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY OVERLYING THE REGION. /08 JVW

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANY ISOLATED STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM
74 TO 79...THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE BEING CLOSEST TO THE COAST.
/10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET
ACROSS THE REGION... AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY
BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES TREND DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND IN
PROBABILITIES OFFERED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THE BETTER CHANCES
LOOKING TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS GULF MOISTURE OPENS UP AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21 /10

MARINE...GENERALLY A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WIND FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AND WAVES BUILDING BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. /08

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 222337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN IMPACT THIS WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE THE
HEAT. AS OF 2 PM...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ALREADY AT 105 IN THE
MONTGOMERY AREA AND IN EUFAULA WITH VALUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA GENERALLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
TO THE LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS AFTER 7PM
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

EXPECT TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY. MODELS INDICATE
THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 22 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH IS OVER
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. THEREFORE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. EXPECT TOMORROW WILL BE THE
BEST DAY FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK. AS THE LAST
FORECAST DISCUSSION STATED...IT HAS BEEN SOMETIME SINCE ANY OF THE
CLIMATE SITES HAVE BEEN OVER 100. PW VALUES FOR TOMORROW ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT OF A CAP WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE BIG NEWS WILL BE THE HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 105-108 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE ARE
SEVERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR THIS WEEKEND AND PLEASE TAKE
THE NECESSARY HEAT PRECAUTIONS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SET UP WILL BRING IN A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR TO EAST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A MOISTURE GRADIENT
AS THE WEDGE MOVES IN ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S WHERE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN HIGH AS THE PATTERN REMAINS HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF OVER 105. THEREFORE...A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 40 PERCENT. DUE TO THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY
TRAVERSE THE STATE. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
HAVE WENT NEAR CLIMO POPS IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE MODEL
DISCREPANCY.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BIG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THERE`S AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF SOME HAZE OR LIGHT FOG BRIEFLY RESTRICTING VISIBILITY DOWN TO
4 OR 5 MILES BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. BUT OTHER THAN AT TROY...I
THINK THOSE CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 222337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN IMPACT THIS WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE THE
HEAT. AS OF 2 PM...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ALREADY AT 105 IN THE
MONTGOMERY AREA AND IN EUFAULA WITH VALUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA GENERALLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
TO THE LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS AFTER 7PM
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

EXPECT TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY. MODELS INDICATE
THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 22 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH IS OVER
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. THEREFORE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. EXPECT TOMORROW WILL BE THE
BEST DAY FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK. AS THE LAST
FORECAST DISCUSSION STATED...IT HAS BEEN SOMETIME SINCE ANY OF THE
CLIMATE SITES HAVE BEEN OVER 100. PW VALUES FOR TOMORROW ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT OF A CAP WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE BIG NEWS WILL BE THE HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 105-108 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE ARE
SEVERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR THIS WEEKEND AND PLEASE TAKE
THE NECESSARY HEAT PRECAUTIONS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SET UP WILL BRING IN A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR TO EAST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A MOISTURE GRADIENT
AS THE WEDGE MOVES IN ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S WHERE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN HIGH AS THE PATTERN REMAINS HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF OVER 105. THEREFORE...A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 40 PERCENT. DUE TO THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY
TRAVERSE THE STATE. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
HAVE WENT NEAR CLIMO POPS IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE MODEL
DISCREPANCY.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BIG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THERE`S AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF SOME HAZE OR LIGHT FOG BRIEFLY RESTRICTING VISIBILITY DOWN TO
4 OR 5 MILES BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. BUT OTHER THAN AT TROY...I
THINK THOSE CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 222329 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
629 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 219 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
A HOT AND STEAMY DAY EXISTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES /IN THE LWR 90S/ AND HUMIDITY
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES BTWN 95-100F AS OF 19Z. A WEST-NORTHWEST
SFC WIND APPEARS TO BE MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO LOWER
DEWPTS SEVERAL DEGREES /MID TO UPR 60S/...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. AT THE UPR LVLS...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST REGION. CONVECTION CAN BE
SEEN DEFINING THE OUTER EDGES OF THIS UPR HIGH AS A SERIES OF UPR LVL
DISTURBANCES/WAVES MOVE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPR HIGH.

THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY /SATURDAY/ OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 105F. THIS IS WHAT
PROMPTED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AREA -- WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...UPR LVL ENERGY
CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY /NRN PERIPHERY OF
UPR RIDGE/ WILL HEAD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY
TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPR RIDGE RE-POSITIONS
ITSELF ALONG THE MS RIVER. THE RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED AFTN
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY EAST OF I-65 SATURDAY.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
UPR LVL S/W ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A BACK DOOR "FRONT" FCST TO ENTER
EASTERN ALABAMA BTWN 06Z-12Z MONDAY. LOSS OF HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT
COULD QUELL CONVECTION BEFORE IT FIRES BACK UP ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /DRIFTING WEST/ ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH INSTABILITY BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG BUT POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN...GIVEN PWATS LIKELY BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OR NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY.
DUE TO EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...FEEL THE AREA WILL
NOT SEE `HEAT ADVISORY` CRITERIA ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPR
HIGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THINGS GET A LITTLE MESSY AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DIVERGE. THE 22/12Z GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING AND CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOESN`T REALLY BRING THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE /20%/ POP GOING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
DISCREPANCIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM...AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL THEN BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT THE
ABOVE MENTIONED UPR TROUGH DECIDES TO DO. USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE
EXTENDED GFS MOS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WED-FRI.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION EXPECTED BTWN 08-12Z THAT
MAY LOWER CAT TO MVFR/IFR.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 222329 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
629 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 219 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
A HOT AND STEAMY DAY EXISTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES /IN THE LWR 90S/ AND HUMIDITY
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES BTWN 95-100F AS OF 19Z. A WEST-NORTHWEST
SFC WIND APPEARS TO BE MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO LOWER
DEWPTS SEVERAL DEGREES /MID TO UPR 60S/...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. AT THE UPR LVLS...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST REGION. CONVECTION CAN BE
SEEN DEFINING THE OUTER EDGES OF THIS UPR HIGH AS A SERIES OF UPR LVL
DISTURBANCES/WAVES MOVE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPR HIGH.

THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY /SATURDAY/ OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 105F. THIS IS WHAT
PROMPTED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AREA -- WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...UPR LVL ENERGY
CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY /NRN PERIPHERY OF
UPR RIDGE/ WILL HEAD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY
TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPR RIDGE RE-POSITIONS
ITSELF ALONG THE MS RIVER. THE RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED AFTN
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY EAST OF I-65 SATURDAY.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
UPR LVL S/W ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A BACK DOOR "FRONT" FCST TO ENTER
EASTERN ALABAMA BTWN 06Z-12Z MONDAY. LOSS OF HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT
COULD QUELL CONVECTION BEFORE IT FIRES BACK UP ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /DRIFTING WEST/ ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH INSTABILITY BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG BUT POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN...GIVEN PWATS LIKELY BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OR NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY.
DUE TO EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...FEEL THE AREA WILL
NOT SEE `HEAT ADVISORY` CRITERIA ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPR
HIGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THINGS GET A LITTLE MESSY AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DIVERGE. THE 22/12Z GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING AND CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOESN`T REALLY BRING THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE /20%/ POP GOING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
DISCREPANCIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM...AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL THEN BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT THE
ABOVE MENTIONED UPR TROUGH DECIDES TO DO. USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE
EXTENDED GFS MOS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WED-FRI.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION EXPECTED BTWN 08-12Z THAT
MAY LOWER CAT TO MVFR/IFR.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 222329 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
629 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 219 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
A HOT AND STEAMY DAY EXISTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES /IN THE LWR 90S/ AND HUMIDITY
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES BTWN 95-100F AS OF 19Z. A WEST-NORTHWEST
SFC WIND APPEARS TO BE MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO LOWER
DEWPTS SEVERAL DEGREES /MID TO UPR 60S/...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. AT THE UPR LVLS...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST REGION. CONVECTION CAN BE
SEEN DEFINING THE OUTER EDGES OF THIS UPR HIGH AS A SERIES OF UPR LVL
DISTURBANCES/WAVES MOVE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPR HIGH.

THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY /SATURDAY/ OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 105F. THIS IS WHAT
PROMPTED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AREA -- WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...UPR LVL ENERGY
CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY /NRN PERIPHERY OF
UPR RIDGE/ WILL HEAD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY
TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPR RIDGE RE-POSITIONS
ITSELF ALONG THE MS RIVER. THE RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED AFTN
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY EAST OF I-65 SATURDAY.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
UPR LVL S/W ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A BACK DOOR "FRONT" FCST TO ENTER
EASTERN ALABAMA BTWN 06Z-12Z MONDAY. LOSS OF HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT
COULD QUELL CONVECTION BEFORE IT FIRES BACK UP ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /DRIFTING WEST/ ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH INSTABILITY BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG BUT POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN...GIVEN PWATS LIKELY BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OR NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY.
DUE TO EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...FEEL THE AREA WILL
NOT SEE `HEAT ADVISORY` CRITERIA ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPR
HIGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THINGS GET A LITTLE MESSY AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DIVERGE. THE 22/12Z GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING AND CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOESN`T REALLY BRING THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE /20%/ POP GOING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
DISCREPANCIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM...AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL THEN BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT THE
ABOVE MENTIONED UPR TROUGH DECIDES TO DO. USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE
EXTENDED GFS MOS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WED-FRI.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION EXPECTED BTWN 08-12Z THAT
MAY LOWER CAT TO MVFR/IFR.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 222329 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
629 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 219 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
A HOT AND STEAMY DAY EXISTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES /IN THE LWR 90S/ AND HUMIDITY
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES BTWN 95-100F AS OF 19Z. A WEST-NORTHWEST
SFC WIND APPEARS TO BE MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO LOWER
DEWPTS SEVERAL DEGREES /MID TO UPR 60S/...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. AT THE UPR LVLS...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST REGION. CONVECTION CAN BE
SEEN DEFINING THE OUTER EDGES OF THIS UPR HIGH AS A SERIES OF UPR LVL
DISTURBANCES/WAVES MOVE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPR HIGH.

THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY /SATURDAY/ OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 105F. THIS IS WHAT
PROMPTED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AREA -- WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...UPR LVL ENERGY
CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY /NRN PERIPHERY OF
UPR RIDGE/ WILL HEAD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY
TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPR RIDGE RE-POSITIONS
ITSELF ALONG THE MS RIVER. THE RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED AFTN
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY EAST OF I-65 SATURDAY.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
UPR LVL S/W ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A BACK DOOR "FRONT" FCST TO ENTER
EASTERN ALABAMA BTWN 06Z-12Z MONDAY. LOSS OF HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT
COULD QUELL CONVECTION BEFORE IT FIRES BACK UP ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /DRIFTING WEST/ ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH INSTABILITY BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG BUT POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN...GIVEN PWATS LIKELY BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OR NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY.
DUE TO EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...FEEL THE AREA WILL
NOT SEE `HEAT ADVISORY` CRITERIA ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPR
HIGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THINGS GET A LITTLE MESSY AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DIVERGE. THE 22/12Z GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING AND CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOESN`T REALLY BRING THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE /20%/ POP GOING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
DISCREPANCIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM...AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL THEN BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT THE
ABOVE MENTIONED UPR TROUGH DECIDES TO DO. USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE
EXTENDED GFS MOS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WED-FRI.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION EXPECTED BTWN 08-12Z THAT
MAY LOWER CAT TO MVFR/IFR.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 222026
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
326 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN IMPACT THIS WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE THE
HEAT. AS OF 2 PM...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ALREADY AT 105 IN THE
MONTGOMERY AREA AND IN EUFAULA WITH VALUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA GENERALLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
TO THE LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS AFTER 7PM
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

EXPECT TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY. MODELS INDICATE
THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 22 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH IS OVER
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. THEREFORE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. EXPECT TOMORROW WILL BE THE
BEST DAY FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK. AS THE LAST
FORECAST DISCUSSION STATED...IT HAS BEEN SOMETIME SINCE ANY OF THE
CLIMATE SITES HAVE BEEN OVER 100. PW VALUES FOR TOMORROW ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT OF A CAP WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE BIG NEWS WILL BE THE HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 105-108 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE ARE
SEVERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR THIS WEEKEND AND PLEASE TAKE
THE NECESSARY HEAT PRECAUTIONS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SET UP WILL BRING IN A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR TO EAST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A MOISTURE GRADIENT
AS THE WEDGE MOVES IN ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S WHERE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN HIGH AS THE PATTERN REMAINS HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF OVER 105. THEREFORE...A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 40 PERCENT. DUE TO THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY
TRAVERSE THE STATE. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
HAVE WENT NEAR CLIMO POPS IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE MODEL
DISCREPANCY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN SOUTH WHERE THE BEST MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY RESIDES.
MENTIONED VCTS AT TOI...OTHERWISE CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL. SOME MIXING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY
TOUCH MVFR VIS AROUND SUNRISE.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  98  72  93  71 /  10  10  10  50  40
ANNISTON    72  98  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  98  75  96  73 /  10  10  10  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  73  99  73  99  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
CALERA      73  98  74  97  73 /  10  10  10  30  30
AUBURN      74  98  75  94  72 /  10  10  10  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75 100  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
TROY        73  98  73  97  73 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 222026
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
326 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN IMPACT THIS WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE THE
HEAT. AS OF 2 PM...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ALREADY AT 105 IN THE
MONTGOMERY AREA AND IN EUFAULA WITH VALUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA GENERALLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
TO THE LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS AFTER 7PM
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

EXPECT TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY. MODELS INDICATE
THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 22 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH IS OVER
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. THEREFORE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. EXPECT TOMORROW WILL BE THE
BEST DAY FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK. AS THE LAST
FORECAST DISCUSSION STATED...IT HAS BEEN SOMETIME SINCE ANY OF THE
CLIMATE SITES HAVE BEEN OVER 100. PW VALUES FOR TOMORROW ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT OF A CAP WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE BIG NEWS WILL BE THE HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 105-108 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE ARE
SEVERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR THIS WEEKEND AND PLEASE TAKE
THE NECESSARY HEAT PRECAUTIONS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SET UP WILL BRING IN A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR TO EAST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A MOISTURE GRADIENT
AS THE WEDGE MOVES IN ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S WHERE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN HIGH AS THE PATTERN REMAINS HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF OVER 105. THEREFORE...A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 40 PERCENT. DUE TO THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY
TRAVERSE THE STATE. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
HAVE WENT NEAR CLIMO POPS IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE MODEL
DISCREPANCY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN SOUTH WHERE THE BEST MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY RESIDES.
MENTIONED VCTS AT TOI...OTHERWISE CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL. SOME MIXING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY
TOUCH MVFR VIS AROUND SUNRISE.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  98  72  93  71 /  10  10  10  50  40
ANNISTON    72  98  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  98  75  96  73 /  10  10  10  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  73  99  73  99  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
CALERA      73  98  74  97  73 /  10  10  10  30  30
AUBURN      74  98  75  94  72 /  10  10  10  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75 100  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
TROY        73  98  73  97  73 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 222007
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
307 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...HOT...HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UMBRELLAS THE REGION. DANGEROUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 106 TO 110 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND RETURN LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MINOR WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MANAGE TO RELEASE SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY OVERLYING THE REGION. /08 JVW

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANY ISOLATED STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM
74 TO 79...THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE BEING CLOSEST TO THE COAST.
/10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET
ACROSS THE REGION... AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY
BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES TREND DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND IN
PROBABILITIES OFFERED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THE BETTER CHANCES
LOOKING TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS GULF MOISTURE OPENS UP AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21 /10

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THE SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THOUGH SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. 08/JW

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WIND FLOW
REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AND WAVES BUILDING BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST. /08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  97  75 /  20  20  10  20  20
PENSACOLA   78  95  79  97  79 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      83  95  82  96  82 /  10  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   72  99  74  99  74 /  20  20  05  20  20
WAYNESBORO  71  98  74  99  74 /  20  20  05  20  20
CAMDEN      72  99  75  98  75 /  20  10  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   73  99  75  99  75 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 222007
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
307 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...HOT...HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UMBRELLAS THE REGION. DANGEROUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 106 TO 110 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND RETURN LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MINOR WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MANAGE TO RELEASE SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY OVERLYING THE REGION. /08 JVW

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANY ISOLATED STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM
74 TO 79...THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE BEING CLOSEST TO THE COAST.
/10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET
ACROSS THE REGION... AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY
BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES TREND DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND IN
PROBABILITIES OFFERED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THE BETTER CHANCES
LOOKING TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS GULF MOISTURE OPENS UP AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21 /10

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THE SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THOUGH SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. 08/JW

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WIND FLOW
REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AND WAVES BUILDING BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST. /08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  97  75 /  20  20  10  20  20
PENSACOLA   78  95  79  97  79 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      83  95  82  96  82 /  10  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   72  99  74  99  74 /  20  20  05  20  20
WAYNESBORO  71  98  74  99  74 /  20  20  05  20  20
CAMDEN      72  99  75  98  75 /  20  10  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   73  99  75  99  75 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 221919
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
219 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A HOT AND STEAMY DAY EXISTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES /IN THE LWR 90S/ AND HUMIDITY
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES BTWN 95-100F AS OF 19Z. A WEST-NORTHWEST
SFC WIND APPEARS TO BE MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO LOWER
DEWPTS SEVERAL DEGREES /MID TO UPR 60S/...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. AT THE UPR LVLS...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST REGION. CONVECTION CAN BE
SEEN DEFINING THE OUTER EDGES OF THIS UPR HIGH AS A SERIES OF UPR LVL
DISTURBANCES/WAVES MOVE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPR HIGH.

THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND
HUMDITY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY /SATURDAY/ OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 105F. THIS IS WHAT
PROMPTED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AREA -- WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...UPR LVL ENERGY
CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY /NRN PERIPHERY OF
UPR RIDGE/ WILL HEAD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY
TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPR RIDGE RE-POSITIONS
ITSELF ALONG THE MS RIVER. THE RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED AFTN
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY EAST OF I-65 SATURDAY.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
UPR LVL S/W ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A BACK DOOR "FRONT" FCST TO ENTER
EASTERN ALABAMA BTWN 06Z-12Z MONDAY. LOSS OF HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT
COULD QUELL CONVECTION BEFORE IT FIRES BACK UP ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /DRIFTING WEST/ ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH INSTABILITY BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG BUT POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN...GIVEN PWATS LIKELY BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OR NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY.
DUE TO EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...FEEL THE AREA WILL
NOT SEE `HEAT ADVISORY` CRITERIA ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPR
HIGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THINGS GET A LITTLE MESSY AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DIVERGE. THE 22/12Z GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING AND CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOESN`T REALLY BRING THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE /20%/ POP GOING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
DISCREPANCIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM...AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL THEN BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT THE
ABOVE MENTIONED UPR TROUGH DECIDES TO DO. USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE
EXTENDED GFS MOS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WED-FRI.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING. AT KMSL, IFR
VSBYS ARE LIKELY AGAIN, AND AT KHSV, ONLY LOWER-END MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES, SCT CLOUDS ARND 4KFT AND 25KFT
WILL LINGER THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    74  96  75  94 /   0  10  10  20
SHOALS        72  98  73  96 /   0  10  10  20
VINEMONT      70  95  71  93 /   0  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  73  95  74  91 /   0  20  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   73  96  74  93 /   0  10  10  30
FORT PAYNE    68  94  69  92 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221919
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
219 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A HOT AND STEAMY DAY EXISTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES /IN THE LWR 90S/ AND HUMIDITY
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES BTWN 95-100F AS OF 19Z. A WEST-NORTHWEST
SFC WIND APPEARS TO BE MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO LOWER
DEWPTS SEVERAL DEGREES /MID TO UPR 60S/...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE
ALABAMA. AT THE UPR LVLS...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST REGION. CONVECTION CAN BE
SEEN DEFINING THE OUTER EDGES OF THIS UPR HIGH AS A SERIES OF UPR LVL
DISTURBANCES/WAVES MOVE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPR HIGH.

THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND
HUMDITY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY /SATURDAY/ OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 105F. THIS IS WHAT
PROMPTED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AREA -- WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...UPR LVL ENERGY
CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY /NRN PERIPHERY OF
UPR RIDGE/ WILL HEAD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY
TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPR RIDGE RE-POSITIONS
ITSELF ALONG THE MS RIVER. THE RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED AFTN
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY EAST OF I-65 SATURDAY.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
UPR LVL S/W ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A BACK DOOR "FRONT" FCST TO ENTER
EASTERN ALABAMA BTWN 06Z-12Z MONDAY. LOSS OF HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT
COULD QUELL CONVECTION BEFORE IT FIRES BACK UP ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /DRIFTING WEST/ ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH INSTABILITY BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG BUT POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN...GIVEN PWATS LIKELY BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OR NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY.
DUE TO EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...FEEL THE AREA WILL
NOT SEE `HEAT ADVISORY` CRITERIA ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPR
HIGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THINGS GET A LITTLE MESSY AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DIVERGE. THE 22/12Z GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING AND CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOESN`T REALLY BRING THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE /20%/ POP GOING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
DISCREPANCIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM...AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL THEN BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT THE
ABOVE MENTIONED UPR TROUGH DECIDES TO DO. USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE
EXTENDED GFS MOS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WED-FRI.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING. AT KMSL, IFR
VSBYS ARE LIKELY AGAIN, AND AT KHSV, ONLY LOWER-END MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES, SCT CLOUDS ARND 4KFT AND 25KFT
WILL LINGER THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    74  96  75  94 /   0  10  10  20
SHOALS        72  98  73  96 /   0  10  10  20
VINEMONT      70  95  71  93 /   0  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  73  95  74  91 /   0  20  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   73  96  74  93 /   0  10  10  30
FORT PAYNE    68  94  69  92 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 221736
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1228 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FIRE UP BY MID AFTERNOON CREATING MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS. STORMS THOUGH SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. 08/JW


**************************PREVIOUS FORECAST**************************

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING HIGH HEAT INDICES AND ASSOCIATED
HEAT IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 107 TO 110 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS TODAY BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST
STRETCHING WELL INLAND AFFECTING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWFA TODAY.
WITH DEEP RIDGING CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PWATS STILL AROUND 1.85 INCHES FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND
LIMITED CAPPING ALOFT HAS MADE TODAYS RAIN FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING...LEADING ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE...EXPANDING THESE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST GENERALLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A
MORE WELL DEFINED THETA E AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWFA TO THE AL/MS COAST IS ALSO NOTED FROM THE CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. CURRENT PHYSICAL GUIDANCE ALSO
DEPICTS BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. WITH
WEAK FORCING ALSO NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOST OF THE TODAYS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MET
AND MAV GUIDANCE RESULTING IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AGAIN SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ENHANCED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 925
MB TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO RANGE FROM 27-29 C ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD...WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105 AND 111 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A FEW
SPOTS MAY STAY JUST SHY OF THE 108 DEGREE ADVISORY CRITERIA...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO OR WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE...SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE CWFA IN A HEAT
ADVISORY AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SEABREEZE
WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BETWEEN 1.7
AND 1.9 INCHES. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE REGION...
AND WILL TREND POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA
MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN
LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION [22.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
23.12Z. COULD SEE LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED  SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 23.01Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO
WEST 4 TO 6 KNOTS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES MOSTLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT A PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  75  96  75  97 /  30  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  79  95  78  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      91  81  95  80  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   97  73  99  72  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  96  72  98  73  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
CAMDEN      98  72  99  75  98 /  30  20  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   98  75  99  74  99 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING      ZONES:
BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...     WILCOX...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING      ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL
SANTA      ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND
SANTA      ROSA...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING      ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21







000
FXUS64 KMOB 221736
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1228 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FIRE UP BY MID AFTERNOON CREATING MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS. STORMS THOUGH SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. 08/JW


**************************PREVIOUS FORECAST**************************

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING HIGH HEAT INDICES AND ASSOCIATED
HEAT IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 107 TO 110 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS TODAY BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST
STRETCHING WELL INLAND AFFECTING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWFA TODAY.
WITH DEEP RIDGING CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PWATS STILL AROUND 1.85 INCHES FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND
LIMITED CAPPING ALOFT HAS MADE TODAYS RAIN FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING...LEADING ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE...EXPANDING THESE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST GENERALLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A
MORE WELL DEFINED THETA E AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWFA TO THE AL/MS COAST IS ALSO NOTED FROM THE CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. CURRENT PHYSICAL GUIDANCE ALSO
DEPICTS BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. WITH
WEAK FORCING ALSO NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOST OF THE TODAYS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MET
AND MAV GUIDANCE RESULTING IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AGAIN SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ENHANCED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 925
MB TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO RANGE FROM 27-29 C ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD...WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105 AND 111 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A FEW
SPOTS MAY STAY JUST SHY OF THE 108 DEGREE ADVISORY CRITERIA...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO OR WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE...SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE CWFA IN A HEAT
ADVISORY AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SEABREEZE
WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BETWEEN 1.7
AND 1.9 INCHES. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE REGION...
AND WILL TREND POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA
MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN
LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION [22.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
23.12Z. COULD SEE LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED  SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 23.01Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO
WEST 4 TO 6 KNOTS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES MOSTLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT A PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  75  96  75  97 /  30  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  79  95  78  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      91  81  95  80  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   97  73  99  72  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  96  72  98  73  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
CAMDEN      98  72  99  75  98 /  30  20  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   98  75  99  74  99 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING      ZONES:
BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...     WILCOX...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING      ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL
SANTA      ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND
SANTA      ROSA...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING      ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21








000
FXUS64 KBMX 221734
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1234 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF THE MEAN MOISTURE WILL ROTATE NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN
A BAND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS WAS ALREADY DEPICTED WELL IN THE FORECAST AND NO CHANGE
WARRANTED. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP TREND AS THINGS
WERE HEATING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED DEW POINTS
TOO...AND THIS MADE THE HEAT INDICES RISE A DEGREE OR SO
SOUTH...AND STILL REMAINS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN SOUTH WHERE THE BEST MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY RESIDES.
MENTIONED VCTS AT TOI...OTHERWISE CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL. SOME MIXING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY
TOUCH MVFR VIS AROUND SUNRISE.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

WE`VE BEEN ABLE TO ESCAPE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SUMMER...BUT THOSE TRENDS HAVE OFFICIALLY ENDED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW ENTRENCHED AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CONTINUING
TO RISE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED REPORTS OF 100 DEGREES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF OUR CLIMATE
SITES ARE ABLE TO REACH 100...AS WAS STATED YESTERDAY HAVE A LONG
STREAK ON THE LINE OF LESS THAN 100 DEGREES. MONTGOMERY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE BOTH TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY
EVENING. FOLKS SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
THEMSELVES FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM JUST OVER 100 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO AS HIGH AS
108 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SO THE HEAT ISN`T IN QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE CHALLENGING. LOOKING BACK AT THE RADAR
YESTERDAY...THERE WAS A HIGHER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DESPITE THE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS DUE TO WEAKLY CAPPED
SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PLENTY OF HEAT FOR RISING
PARCELS. THE CONVECTION WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT STILL HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN WAS FORECAST. WE`LL SEE A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION
TODAY...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. ONCE ANY STORMS INITIATE THEY WILL
CAUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL KEEP A FEW STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CLANTON...TO
WEDOWEE AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE JUST A BIT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON FOR EVERYONE. WE
COULD SEE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE REDUCED DOWN TO A MINIMUM.
STILL...HAVE INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE`LL RE-EVALUATE THOSE CHANCES ON THE
SATURDAY MORNING PACKAGE FROM THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDING DATA...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 100S NORTH TO AS HIGH AS
109 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY WILL BE A SORT OF TRANSITION DAY...AS A RELATIVELY COOLER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE EASTERLY FLOW
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT UPPER
90S TO CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES FOR HIGHS...AND WE`VE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM DOUBLE SPRINGS...TO CENTREVILLE...TO MONTGOMERY THROUGH 9PM
SUNDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS EAST WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES GO UP AS UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE RETROGRADING
HEAT RIDGE.

FORTUNATELY...THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULDN`T LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMO ON TEMPS. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  98  73  93  73 /  10  10  10  30  20
ANNISTON    73  98  74  94  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  98  75  96  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  99  73  99  75 /  10  10  10  20  20
CALERA      74  99  75  96  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
AUBURN      74  98  75  94  73 /  20  10  10  50  20
MONTGOMERY  75 100  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  30  20
TROY        73  99  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 221734
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1234 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF THE MEAN MOISTURE WILL ROTATE NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN
A BAND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS WAS ALREADY DEPICTED WELL IN THE FORECAST AND NO CHANGE
WARRANTED. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP TREND AS THINGS
WERE HEATING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED DEW POINTS
TOO...AND THIS MADE THE HEAT INDICES RISE A DEGREE OR SO
SOUTH...AND STILL REMAINS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN SOUTH WHERE THE BEST MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY RESIDES.
MENTIONED VCTS AT TOI...OTHERWISE CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL. SOME MIXING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY
TOUCH MVFR VIS AROUND SUNRISE.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

WE`VE BEEN ABLE TO ESCAPE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SUMMER...BUT THOSE TRENDS HAVE OFFICIALLY ENDED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW ENTRENCHED AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CONTINUING
TO RISE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED REPORTS OF 100 DEGREES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF OUR CLIMATE
SITES ARE ABLE TO REACH 100...AS WAS STATED YESTERDAY HAVE A LONG
STREAK ON THE LINE OF LESS THAN 100 DEGREES. MONTGOMERY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE BOTH TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY
EVENING. FOLKS SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
THEMSELVES FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM JUST OVER 100 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO AS HIGH AS
108 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SO THE HEAT ISN`T IN QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE CHALLENGING. LOOKING BACK AT THE RADAR
YESTERDAY...THERE WAS A HIGHER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DESPITE THE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS DUE TO WEAKLY CAPPED
SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PLENTY OF HEAT FOR RISING
PARCELS. THE CONVECTION WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT STILL HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN WAS FORECAST. WE`LL SEE A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION
TODAY...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. ONCE ANY STORMS INITIATE THEY WILL
CAUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL KEEP A FEW STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CLANTON...TO
WEDOWEE AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE JUST A BIT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON FOR EVERYONE. WE
COULD SEE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE REDUCED DOWN TO A MINIMUM.
STILL...HAVE INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE`LL RE-EVALUATE THOSE CHANCES ON THE
SATURDAY MORNING PACKAGE FROM THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDING DATA...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 100S NORTH TO AS HIGH AS
109 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY WILL BE A SORT OF TRANSITION DAY...AS A RELATIVELY COOLER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE EASTERLY FLOW
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT UPPER
90S TO CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES FOR HIGHS...AND WE`VE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM DOUBLE SPRINGS...TO CENTREVILLE...TO MONTGOMERY THROUGH 9PM
SUNDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS EAST WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES GO UP AS UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE RETROGRADING
HEAT RIDGE.

FORTUNATELY...THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULDN`T LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMO ON TEMPS. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  98  73  93  73 /  10  10  10  30  20
ANNISTON    73  98  74  94  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  98  75  96  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  99  73  99  75 /  10  10  10  20  20
CALERA      74  99  75  96  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
AUBURN      74  98  75  94  73 /  20  10  10  50  20
MONTGOMERY  75 100  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  30  20
TROY        73  99  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 221734
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1234 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF THE MEAN MOISTURE WILL ROTATE NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN
A BAND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS WAS ALREADY DEPICTED WELL IN THE FORECAST AND NO CHANGE
WARRANTED. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP TREND AS THINGS
WERE HEATING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED DEW POINTS
TOO...AND THIS MADE THE HEAT INDICES RISE A DEGREE OR SO
SOUTH...AND STILL REMAINS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN SOUTH WHERE THE BEST MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY RESIDES.
MENTIONED VCTS AT TOI...OTHERWISE CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL. SOME MIXING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY
TOUCH MVFR VIS AROUND SUNRISE.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

WE`VE BEEN ABLE TO ESCAPE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SUMMER...BUT THOSE TRENDS HAVE OFFICIALLY ENDED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW ENTRENCHED AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CONTINUING
TO RISE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED REPORTS OF 100 DEGREES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF OUR CLIMATE
SITES ARE ABLE TO REACH 100...AS WAS STATED YESTERDAY HAVE A LONG
STREAK ON THE LINE OF LESS THAN 100 DEGREES. MONTGOMERY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE BOTH TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY
EVENING. FOLKS SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
THEMSELVES FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM JUST OVER 100 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO AS HIGH AS
108 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SO THE HEAT ISN`T IN QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE CHALLENGING. LOOKING BACK AT THE RADAR
YESTERDAY...THERE WAS A HIGHER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DESPITE THE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS DUE TO WEAKLY CAPPED
SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PLENTY OF HEAT FOR RISING
PARCELS. THE CONVECTION WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT STILL HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN WAS FORECAST. WE`LL SEE A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION
TODAY...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. ONCE ANY STORMS INITIATE THEY WILL
CAUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL KEEP A FEW STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CLANTON...TO
WEDOWEE AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE JUST A BIT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON FOR EVERYONE. WE
COULD SEE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE REDUCED DOWN TO A MINIMUM.
STILL...HAVE INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE`LL RE-EVALUATE THOSE CHANCES ON THE
SATURDAY MORNING PACKAGE FROM THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDING DATA...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 100S NORTH TO AS HIGH AS
109 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY WILL BE A SORT OF TRANSITION DAY...AS A RELATIVELY COOLER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE EASTERLY FLOW
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT UPPER
90S TO CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES FOR HIGHS...AND WE`VE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM DOUBLE SPRINGS...TO CENTREVILLE...TO MONTGOMERY THROUGH 9PM
SUNDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS EAST WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES GO UP AS UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE RETROGRADING
HEAT RIDGE.

FORTUNATELY...THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULDN`T LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMO ON TEMPS. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  98  73  93  73 /  10  10  10  30  20
ANNISTON    73  98  74  94  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  98  75  96  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  99  73  99  75 /  10  10  10  20  20
CALERA      74  99  75  96  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
AUBURN      74  98  75  94  73 /  20  10  10  50  20
MONTGOMERY  75 100  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  30  20
TROY        73  99  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 221734
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1234 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF THE MEAN MOISTURE WILL ROTATE NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN
A BAND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS WAS ALREADY DEPICTED WELL IN THE FORECAST AND NO CHANGE
WARRANTED. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP TREND AS THINGS
WERE HEATING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED DEW POINTS
TOO...AND THIS MADE THE HEAT INDICES RISE A DEGREE OR SO
SOUTH...AND STILL REMAINS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN SOUTH WHERE THE BEST MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY RESIDES.
MENTIONED VCTS AT TOI...OTHERWISE CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL. SOME MIXING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY
TOUCH MVFR VIS AROUND SUNRISE.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

WE`VE BEEN ABLE TO ESCAPE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SUMMER...BUT THOSE TRENDS HAVE OFFICIALLY ENDED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW ENTRENCHED AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CONTINUING
TO RISE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED REPORTS OF 100 DEGREES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF OUR CLIMATE
SITES ARE ABLE TO REACH 100...AS WAS STATED YESTERDAY HAVE A LONG
STREAK ON THE LINE OF LESS THAN 100 DEGREES. MONTGOMERY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE BOTH TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY
EVENING. FOLKS SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
THEMSELVES FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM JUST OVER 100 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO AS HIGH AS
108 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SO THE HEAT ISN`T IN QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE CHALLENGING. LOOKING BACK AT THE RADAR
YESTERDAY...THERE WAS A HIGHER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DESPITE THE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS DUE TO WEAKLY CAPPED
SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PLENTY OF HEAT FOR RISING
PARCELS. THE CONVECTION WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT STILL HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN WAS FORECAST. WE`LL SEE A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION
TODAY...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. ONCE ANY STORMS INITIATE THEY WILL
CAUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL KEEP A FEW STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CLANTON...TO
WEDOWEE AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE JUST A BIT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON FOR EVERYONE. WE
COULD SEE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE REDUCED DOWN TO A MINIMUM.
STILL...HAVE INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE`LL RE-EVALUATE THOSE CHANCES ON THE
SATURDAY MORNING PACKAGE FROM THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDING DATA...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 100S NORTH TO AS HIGH AS
109 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY WILL BE A SORT OF TRANSITION DAY...AS A RELATIVELY COOLER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE EASTERLY FLOW
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT UPPER
90S TO CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES FOR HIGHS...AND WE`VE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM DOUBLE SPRINGS...TO CENTREVILLE...TO MONTGOMERY THROUGH 9PM
SUNDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS EAST WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES GO UP AS UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE RETROGRADING
HEAT RIDGE.

FORTUNATELY...THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULDN`T LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMO ON TEMPS. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  98  73  93  73 /  10  10  10  30  20
ANNISTON    73  98  74  94  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  98  75  96  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  99  73  99  75 /  10  10  10  20  20
CALERA      74  99  75  96  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
AUBURN      74  98  75  94  73 /  20  10  10  50  20
MONTGOMERY  75 100  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  30  20
TROY        73  99  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 221725 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 944 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE TX/LA STATE LINES,
CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE/WV IMAGERY ROTATING CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE (MOST NOTABLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES). CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION ADVECTING TO THE
SOUTH WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE IN EAST CENTRAL MS, WITH
LIGHT SW TO NW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

9AM TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWFA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND/EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. AS SUCH, WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY
GOING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.
AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS/HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OCCURRING OVER NW AL.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING. AT KMSL, IFR
VSBYS ARE LIKELY AGAIN, AND AT KHSV, ONLY LOWER-END MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES, SCT CLOUDS ARND 4KFT AND 25KFT
WILL LINGER THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221725 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 944 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE TX/LA STATE LINES,
CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE/WV IMAGERY ROTATING CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE (MOST NOTABLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES). CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION ADVECTING TO THE
SOUTH WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE IN EAST CENTRAL MS, WITH
LIGHT SW TO NW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

9AM TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWFA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND/EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. AS SUCH, WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY
GOING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.
AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS/HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OCCURRING OVER NW AL.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING. AT KMSL, IFR
VSBYS ARE LIKELY AGAIN, AND AT KHSV, ONLY LOWER-END MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES, SCT CLOUDS ARND 4KFT AND 25KFT
WILL LINGER THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221725 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 944 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE TX/LA STATE LINES,
CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE/WV IMAGERY ROTATING CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE (MOST NOTABLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES). CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION ADVECTING TO THE
SOUTH WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE IN EAST CENTRAL MS, WITH
LIGHT SW TO NW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

9AM TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWFA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND/EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. AS SUCH, WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY
GOING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.
AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS/HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OCCURRING OVER NW AL.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING. AT KMSL, IFR
VSBYS ARE LIKELY AGAIN, AND AT KHSV, ONLY LOWER-END MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES, SCT CLOUDS ARND 4KFT AND 25KFT
WILL LINGER THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221725 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 944 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE TX/LA STATE LINES,
CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE/WV IMAGERY ROTATING CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE (MOST NOTABLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES). CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION ADVECTING TO THE
SOUTH WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE IN EAST CENTRAL MS, WITH
LIGHT SW TO NW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

9AM TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWFA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND/EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. AS SUCH, WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY
GOING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.
AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS/HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OCCURRING OVER NW AL.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING. AT KMSL, IFR
VSBYS ARE LIKELY AGAIN, AND AT KHSV, ONLY LOWER-END MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES, SCT CLOUDS ARND 4KFT AND 25KFT
WILL LINGER THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221605
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1105 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF THE MEAN MOISTURE WILL ROTATE NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN
A BAND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS WAS ALREADY DEPICTED WELL IN THE FORECAST AND NO CHANGE
WARRANTED. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP TREND AS THINGS
WERE HEATING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED DEW POINTS
TOO...AND THIS MADE THE HEAT INDICES RISE A DEGREE OR SO
SOUTH...AND STILL REMAINS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY SOME ISOLATED MVFR FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY WITH THE SUN RISING AND MIXING. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING HOT
TEMPS AND VFR CONDITIONS. WILL FORGO THE MENTION OF TSRA FOR NOW
AS CHANCES WILL BE LOW.

08/MK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

WE`VE BEEN ABLE TO ESCAPE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SUMMER...BUT THOSE TRENDS HAVE OFFICIALLY ENDED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW ENTRENCHED AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CONTINUING
TO RISE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED REPORTS OF 100 DEGREES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF OUR CLIMATE
SITES ARE ABLE TO REACH 100...AS WAS STATED YESTERDAY HAVE A LONG
STREAK ON THE LINE OF LESS THAN 100 DEGREES. MONTGOMERY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE BOTH TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY
EVENING. FOLKS SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
THEMSELVES FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM JUST OVER 100 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO AS HIGH AS
108 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SO THE HEAT ISN`T IN QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE CHALLENGING. LOOKING BACK AT THE RADAR
YESTERDAY...THERE WAS A HIGHER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DESPITE THE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS DUE TO WEAKLY CAPPED
SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PLENTY OF HEAT FOR RISING
PARCELS. THE CONVECTION WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT STILL HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN WAS FORECAST. WE`LL SEE A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION
TODAY...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. ONCE ANY STORMS INITIATE THEY WILL
CAUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL KEEP A FEW STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CLANTON...TO
WEDOWEE AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE JUST A BIT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON FOR EVERYONE. WE
COULD SEE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE REDUCED DOWN TO A MINIMUM.
STILL...HAVE INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE`LL RE-EVALUATE THOSE CHANCES ON THE
SATURDAY MORNING PACKAGE FROM THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDING DATA...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 100S NORTH TO AS HIGH AS
109 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY WILL BE A SORT OF TRANSITION DAY...AS A RELATIVELY COOLER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE EASTERLY FLOW
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT UPPER
90S TO CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES FOR HIGHS...AND WE`VE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM DOUBLE SPRINGS...TO CENTREVILLE...TO MONTGOMERY THROUGH 9PM
SUNDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS EAST WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES GO UP AS UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE RETROGRADING
HEAT RIDGE.

FORTUNATELY...THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULDN`T LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMO ON TEMPS. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     96  72  98  73  93 /  20  10  10  10  30
ANNISTON    97  73  98  74  94 /  20  10  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  98  75  98  75  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  99  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      97  74  99  75  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      94  74  98  75  94 /  30  20  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  99  75 100  75  98 /  30  20  10  10  30
TROY        97  73  99  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 221605
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1105 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF THE MEAN MOISTURE WILL ROTATE NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN
A BAND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS WAS ALREADY DEPICTED WELL IN THE FORECAST AND NO CHANGE
WARRANTED. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP TREND AS THINGS
WERE HEATING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED DEW POINTS
TOO...AND THIS MADE THE HEAT INDICES RISE A DEGREE OR SO
SOUTH...AND STILL REMAINS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY SOME ISOLATED MVFR FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY WITH THE SUN RISING AND MIXING. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING HOT
TEMPS AND VFR CONDITIONS. WILL FORGO THE MENTION OF TSRA FOR NOW
AS CHANCES WILL BE LOW.

08/MK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

WE`VE BEEN ABLE TO ESCAPE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SUMMER...BUT THOSE TRENDS HAVE OFFICIALLY ENDED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW ENTRENCHED AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CONTINUING
TO RISE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED REPORTS OF 100 DEGREES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF OUR CLIMATE
SITES ARE ABLE TO REACH 100...AS WAS STATED YESTERDAY HAVE A LONG
STREAK ON THE LINE OF LESS THAN 100 DEGREES. MONTGOMERY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE BOTH TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY
EVENING. FOLKS SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
THEMSELVES FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM JUST OVER 100 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO AS HIGH AS
108 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SO THE HEAT ISN`T IN QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE CHALLENGING. LOOKING BACK AT THE RADAR
YESTERDAY...THERE WAS A HIGHER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DESPITE THE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS DUE TO WEAKLY CAPPED
SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PLENTY OF HEAT FOR RISING
PARCELS. THE CONVECTION WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT STILL HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN WAS FORECAST. WE`LL SEE A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION
TODAY...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. ONCE ANY STORMS INITIATE THEY WILL
CAUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL KEEP A FEW STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CLANTON...TO
WEDOWEE AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE JUST A BIT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON FOR EVERYONE. WE
COULD SEE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE REDUCED DOWN TO A MINIMUM.
STILL...HAVE INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE`LL RE-EVALUATE THOSE CHANCES ON THE
SATURDAY MORNING PACKAGE FROM THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDING DATA...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 100S NORTH TO AS HIGH AS
109 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY WILL BE A SORT OF TRANSITION DAY...AS A RELATIVELY COOLER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE EASTERLY FLOW
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT UPPER
90S TO CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES FOR HIGHS...AND WE`VE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM DOUBLE SPRINGS...TO CENTREVILLE...TO MONTGOMERY THROUGH 9PM
SUNDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS EAST WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES GO UP AS UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE RETROGRADING
HEAT RIDGE.

FORTUNATELY...THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULDN`T LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMO ON TEMPS. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     96  72  98  73  93 /  20  10  10  10  30
ANNISTON    97  73  98  74  94 /  20  10  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  98  75  98  75  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  99  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      97  74  99  75  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      94  74  98  75  94 /  30  20  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  99  75 100  75  98 /  30  20  10  10  30
TROY        97  73  99  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 221444 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
944 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE TX/LA STATE LINES,
CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE/WV IMAGERY ROTATING CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE (MOST NOTABLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES). CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION ADVECTING TO THE
SOUTH WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE IN EAST CENTRAL MS, WITH
LIGHT SW TO NW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

9AM TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWFA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND/EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. AS SUCH, WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY
GOING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.
AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS/HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OCCURRING OVER NW AL.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 658 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR FOG AT KMSL UNTIL 13Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 527 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
CURRENT SFC OBS SHOW LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HUN CWA WITH
MORE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE ONLY DROPPED DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 70S OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY AT 9PM. THE HEAT
INDEX WILL RISE UP TO VALUES RANGING FROM 100-107 DEGREES ACROSS THE
HUN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE GFS MAY BE TOO WARM WITH TEMPS AND TOO LOW ON DEWPOINTS. WHERE AS
THE NAM LOOKED MORE REASONABLE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. BECAUSE OF
RECENT RAINFALL /AND VEGETATION STILL GREEN/ WE SHOULD NOT WARM UP
AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS EXPECTING. TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

OVERALL WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BUT LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...INCREASED THE POPS
AND CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BUT WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...MAY NOT REACH THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY SO WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL PULL
DRIER AIR WILL INTO THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE LINGERING
EFFECT OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
REMOVE THIS SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM THIS TIME FRAME.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT THAN
THE ECMWF...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 221444 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
944 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE TX/LA STATE LINES,
CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE/WV IMAGERY ROTATING CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE (MOST NOTABLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES). CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION ADVECTING TO THE
SOUTH WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE IN EAST CENTRAL MS, WITH
LIGHT SW TO NW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

9AM TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWFA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND/EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. AS SUCH, WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY
GOING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.
AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS/HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OCCURRING OVER NW AL.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 658 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR FOG AT KMSL UNTIL 13Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 527 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
CURRENT SFC OBS SHOW LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HUN CWA WITH
MORE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE ONLY DROPPED DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 70S OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY AT 9PM. THE HEAT
INDEX WILL RISE UP TO VALUES RANGING FROM 100-107 DEGREES ACROSS THE
HUN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE GFS MAY BE TOO WARM WITH TEMPS AND TOO LOW ON DEWPOINTS. WHERE AS
THE NAM LOOKED MORE REASONABLE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. BECAUSE OF
RECENT RAINFALL /AND VEGETATION STILL GREEN/ WE SHOULD NOT WARM UP
AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS EXPECTING. TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

OVERALL WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BUT LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...INCREASED THE POPS
AND CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BUT WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...MAY NOT REACH THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY SO WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL PULL
DRIER AIR WILL INTO THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE LINGERING
EFFECT OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
REMOVE THIS SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM THIS TIME FRAME.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT THAN
THE ECMWF...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221200 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE`VE BEEN ABLE TO ESCAPE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SUMMER...BUT THOSE TRENDS HAVE OFFICIALLY ENDED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW ENTRENCHED AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CONTINUING
TO RISE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED REPORTS OF 100 DEGREES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF OUR CLIMATE
SITES ARE ABLE TO REACH 100...AS WAS STATED YESTERDAY HAVE A LONG
STREAK ON THE LINE OF LESS THAN 100 DEGREES. MONTGOMERY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE BOTH TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY
EVENING. FOLKS SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
THEMSELVES FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM JUST OVER 100 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO AS HIGH AS
108 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SO THE HEAT ISN`T IN QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE CHALLENGING. LOOKING BACK AT THE RADAR
YESTERDAY...THERE WAS A HIGHER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DESPITE THE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS DUE TO WEAKLY CAPPED
SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PLENTY OF HEAT FOR RISING
PARCELS. THE CONVECTION WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT STILL HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN WAS FORECAST. WE`LL SEE A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION
TODAY...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. ONCE ANY STORMS INITIATE THEY WILL
CAUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL KEEP A FEW STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CLANTON...TO
WEDOWEE AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE JUST A BIT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON FOR EVERYONE. WE
COULD SEE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE REDUCED DOWN TO A MINIMUM.
STILL...HAVE INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE`LL RE-EVALUATE THOSE CHANCES ON THE
SATURDAY MORNING PACKAGE FROM THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDING DATA...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 100S NORTH TO AS HIGH AS
109 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY WILL BE A SORT OF TRANSITION DAY...AS A RELATIVELY COOLER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE EASTERLY FLOW
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT UPPER
90S TO CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES FOR HIGHS...AND WE`VE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM DOUBLE SPRINGS...TO CENTREVILLE...TO MONTGOMERY THROUGH 9PM
SUNDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS EAST WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES GO UP AS UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE RETROGRADING
HEAT RIDGE.

FORTUNATELY...THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULDN`T LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMO ON TEMPS. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY SOME ISOLATED MVFR FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY WITH THE SUN RISING AND MIXING. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING HOT
TEMPS AND VFR CONDITIONS. WILL FORGO THE MENTION OF TSRA FOR NOW
AS CHANCES WILL BE LOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     97  72  98  73  93 /  20  10  10  10  30
ANNISTON    97  73  98  74  94 /  20  10  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  98  75  98  75  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  99  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      98  74  99  75  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      97  74  98  75  94 /  30  20  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  99  75 100  75  98 /  30  20  10  10  30
TROY        98  73  99  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...
FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...
WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...
CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...
ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$

56/08






000
FXUS64 KBMX 221200 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE`VE BEEN ABLE TO ESCAPE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SUMMER...BUT THOSE TRENDS HAVE OFFICIALLY ENDED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW ENTRENCHED AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CONTINUING
TO RISE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED REPORTS OF 100 DEGREES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF OUR CLIMATE
SITES ARE ABLE TO REACH 100...AS WAS STATED YESTERDAY HAVE A LONG
STREAK ON THE LINE OF LESS THAN 100 DEGREES. MONTGOMERY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE BOTH TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY
EVENING. FOLKS SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
THEMSELVES FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM JUST OVER 100 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO AS HIGH AS
108 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SO THE HEAT ISN`T IN QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE CHALLENGING. LOOKING BACK AT THE RADAR
YESTERDAY...THERE WAS A HIGHER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DESPITE THE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS DUE TO WEAKLY CAPPED
SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PLENTY OF HEAT FOR RISING
PARCELS. THE CONVECTION WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT STILL HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN WAS FORECAST. WE`LL SEE A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION
TODAY...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. ONCE ANY STORMS INITIATE THEY WILL
CAUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL KEEP A FEW STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CLANTON...TO
WEDOWEE AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE JUST A BIT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON FOR EVERYONE. WE
COULD SEE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE REDUCED DOWN TO A MINIMUM.
STILL...HAVE INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE`LL RE-EVALUATE THOSE CHANCES ON THE
SATURDAY MORNING PACKAGE FROM THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDING DATA...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 100S NORTH TO AS HIGH AS
109 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY WILL BE A SORT OF TRANSITION DAY...AS A RELATIVELY COOLER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE EASTERLY FLOW
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT UPPER
90S TO CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES FOR HIGHS...AND WE`VE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM DOUBLE SPRINGS...TO CENTREVILLE...TO MONTGOMERY THROUGH 9PM
SUNDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS EAST WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES GO UP AS UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE RETROGRADING
HEAT RIDGE.

FORTUNATELY...THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULDN`T LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMO ON TEMPS. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY SOME ISOLATED MVFR FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY WITH THE SUN RISING AND MIXING. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING HOT
TEMPS AND VFR CONDITIONS. WILL FORGO THE MENTION OF TSRA FOR NOW
AS CHANCES WILL BE LOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     97  72  98  73  93 /  20  10  10  10  30
ANNISTON    97  73  98  74  94 /  20  10  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  98  75  98  75  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  99  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      98  74  99  75  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      97  74  98  75  94 /  30  20  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  99  75 100  75  98 /  30  20  10  10  30
TROY        98  73  99  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...
FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...
WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...
CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...
ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$

56/08





000
FXUS64 KHUN 221158
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 527 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
CURRENT SFC OBS SHOW LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HUN CWA WITH
MORE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE ONLY DROPPED DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 70S OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY AT 9PM. THE HEAT
INDEX WILL RISE UP TO VALUES RANGING FROM 100-107 DEGREES ACROSS THE
HUN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE GFS MAY BE TOO WARM WITH TEMPS AND TOO LOW ON DEWPOINTS. WHERE AS
THE NAM LOOKED MORE REASONABLE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. BECAUSE OF
RECENT RAINFALL /AND VEGETATION STILL GREEN/ WE SHOULD NOT WARM UP
AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS EXPECTING. TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

OVERALL WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BUT LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...INCREASED THE POPS
AND CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BUT WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...MAY NOT REACH THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY SO WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL PULL
DRIER AIR WILL INTO THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE LINGERING
EFFECT OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
REMOVE THIS SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM THIS TIME FRAME.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT THAN
THE ECMWF...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR FOG AT KMSL UNTIL 13Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221027
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
527 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC OBS SHOW LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HUN CWA WITH
MORE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE ONLY DROPPED DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 70S OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY AT 9PM. THE HEAT
INDEX WILL RISE UP TO VALUES RANGING FROM 100-107 DEGREES ACROSS THE
HUN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE GFS MAY BE TOO WARM WITH TEMPS AND TOO LOW ON DEWPOINTS. WHERE AS
THE NAM LOOKED MORE REASONABLE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. BECAUSE OF
RECENT RAINFALL /AND VEGETATION STILL GREEN/ WE SHOULD NOT WARM UP
AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS EXPECTING. TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

OVERALL WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BUT LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...INCREASED THE POPS
AND CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BUT WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...MAY NOT REACH THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY SO WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL PULL
DRIER AIR WILL INTO THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE LINGERING
EFFECT OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
REMOVE THIS SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM THIS TIME FRAME.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT THAN
THE ECMWF...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS, VALLEYS,
AND LAKES OF N AL/S MIDDLE TN THAT WILL ACT TO LOWER VIS CLOSE TO
MVFR BTWN 09-13Z ESPECIALLY NEAR KMSL.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    97  74  98  74 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        98  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      97  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  94  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   94  73  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    95  71  96  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221027
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
527 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC OBS SHOW LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HUN CWA WITH
MORE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE ONLY DROPPED DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 70S OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY AT 9PM. THE HEAT
INDEX WILL RISE UP TO VALUES RANGING FROM 100-107 DEGREES ACROSS THE
HUN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE GFS MAY BE TOO WARM WITH TEMPS AND TOO LOW ON DEWPOINTS. WHERE AS
THE NAM LOOKED MORE REASONABLE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. BECAUSE OF
RECENT RAINFALL /AND VEGETATION STILL GREEN/ WE SHOULD NOT WARM UP
AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS EXPECTING. TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

OVERALL WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BUT LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...INCREASED THE POPS
AND CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BUT WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...MAY NOT REACH THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY SO WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL PULL
DRIER AIR WILL INTO THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE LINGERING
EFFECT OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
REMOVE THIS SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM THIS TIME FRAME.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT THAN
THE ECMWF...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS, VALLEYS,
AND LAKES OF N AL/S MIDDLE TN THAT WILL ACT TO LOWER VIS CLOSE TO
MVFR BTWN 09-13Z ESPECIALLY NEAR KMSL.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    97  74  98  74 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        98  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      97  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  94  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   94  73  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    95  71  96  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221027
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
527 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC OBS SHOW LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HUN CWA WITH
MORE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE ONLY DROPPED DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 70S OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY AT 9PM. THE HEAT
INDEX WILL RISE UP TO VALUES RANGING FROM 100-107 DEGREES ACROSS THE
HUN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE GFS MAY BE TOO WARM WITH TEMPS AND TOO LOW ON DEWPOINTS. WHERE AS
THE NAM LOOKED MORE REASONABLE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. BECAUSE OF
RECENT RAINFALL /AND VEGETATION STILL GREEN/ WE SHOULD NOT WARM UP
AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS EXPECTING. TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

OVERALL WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BUT LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...INCREASED THE POPS
AND CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BUT WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...MAY NOT REACH THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY SO WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL PULL
DRIER AIR WILL INTO THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE LINGERING
EFFECT OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
REMOVE THIS SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM THIS TIME FRAME.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT THAN
THE ECMWF...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS, VALLEYS,
AND LAKES OF N AL/S MIDDLE TN THAT WILL ACT TO LOWER VIS CLOSE TO
MVFR BTWN 09-13Z ESPECIALLY NEAR KMSL.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    97  74  98  74 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        98  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      97  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  94  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   94  73  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    95  71  96  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 221027
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
527 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC OBS SHOW LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HUN CWA WITH
MORE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE ONLY DROPPED DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 70S OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY AT 9PM. THE HEAT
INDEX WILL RISE UP TO VALUES RANGING FROM 100-107 DEGREES ACROSS THE
HUN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE GFS MAY BE TOO WARM WITH TEMPS AND TOO LOW ON DEWPOINTS. WHERE AS
THE NAM LOOKED MORE REASONABLE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. BECAUSE OF
RECENT RAINFALL /AND VEGETATION STILL GREEN/ WE SHOULD NOT WARM UP
AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS EXPECTING. TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

OVERALL WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BUT LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...INCREASED THE POPS
AND CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BUT WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...MAY NOT REACH THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY SO WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL PULL
DRIER AIR WILL INTO THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE LINGERING
EFFECT OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
REMOVE THIS SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM THIS TIME FRAME.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT THAN
THE ECMWF...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS, VALLEYS,
AND LAKES OF N AL/S MIDDLE TN THAT WILL ACT TO LOWER VIS CLOSE TO
MVFR BTWN 09-13Z ESPECIALLY NEAR KMSL.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    97  74  98  74 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        98  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      97  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  94  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   94  73  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    95  71  96  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 221019
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
519 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

WE`VE BEEN ABLE TO ESCAPE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SUMMER...BUT THOSE TRENDS HAVE OFFICIALLY ENDED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW ENTRENCHED AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CONTINUING
TO RISE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED REPORTS OF 100 DEGREES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF OUR CLIMATE
SITES ARE ABLE TO REACH 100...AS WAS STATED YESTERDAY HAVE A LONG
STREAK ON THE LINE OF LESS THAN 100 DEGREES. MONTGOMERY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE BOTH TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY
EVENING. FOLKS SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
THEMSELVES FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM JUST OVER 100 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO AS HIGH AS
108 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SO THE HEAT ISN`T IN QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE CHALLENGING. LOOKING BACK AT THE RADAR
YESTERDAY...THERE WAS A HIGHER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DESPITE THE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS DUE TO WEAKLY CAPPED
SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PLENTY OF HEAT FOR RISING
PARCELS. THE CONVECTION WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT STILL HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN WAS FORECAST. WE`LL SEE A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION
TODAY...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. ONCE ANY STORMS INITIATE THEY WILL
CAUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL KEEP A FEW STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CLANTON...TO
WEDOWEE AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE JUST A BIT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON FOR EVERYONE. WE
COULD SEE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE REDUCED DOWN TO A MINIMUM.
STILL...HAVE INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE`LL RE-EVALUATE THOSE CHANCES ON THE
SATURDAY MORNING PACKAGE FROM THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDING DATA...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 100S NORTH TO AS HIGH AS
109 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY WILL BE A SORT OF TRANSITION DAY...AS A RELATIVELY COOLER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE EASTERLY FLOW
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT UPPER
90S TO CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES FOR HIGHS...AND WE`VE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM DOUBLE SPRINGS...TO CENTREVILLE...TO MONTGOMERY THROUGH 9PM
SUNDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS EAST WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES GO UP AS UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE RETROGRADING
HEAT RIDGE.

FORTUNATELY...THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULDN`T LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMO ON TEMPS. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET SOME LIGHT
FOG OVERNIGHT...I JUST THINK THE POSSIBILITIES ARE REMOTE ENOUGH
SO THAT WE CAN LEAVE OUT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR NOW.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     97  72  98  73  93 /  20  10  10  10  30
ANNISTON    97  73  98  74  94 /  20  10  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  98  75  98  75  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  99  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      98  74  99  75  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      97  74  98  75  94 /  30  20  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  99  75 100  75  98 /  30  20  10  10  30
TROY        98  73  99  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...
FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...
WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...
CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...
ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221019
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
519 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

WE`VE BEEN ABLE TO ESCAPE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SUMMER...BUT THOSE TRENDS HAVE OFFICIALLY ENDED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW ENTRENCHED AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CONTINUING
TO RISE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED REPORTS OF 100 DEGREES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF OUR CLIMATE
SITES ARE ABLE TO REACH 100...AS WAS STATED YESTERDAY HAVE A LONG
STREAK ON THE LINE OF LESS THAN 100 DEGREES. MONTGOMERY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE BOTH TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY
EVENING. FOLKS SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
THEMSELVES FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM JUST OVER 100 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO AS HIGH AS
108 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SO THE HEAT ISN`T IN QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE CHALLENGING. LOOKING BACK AT THE RADAR
YESTERDAY...THERE WAS A HIGHER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DESPITE THE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS DUE TO WEAKLY CAPPED
SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PLENTY OF HEAT FOR RISING
PARCELS. THE CONVECTION WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT STILL HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN WAS FORECAST. WE`LL SEE A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION
TODAY...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. ONCE ANY STORMS INITIATE THEY WILL
CAUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL KEEP A FEW STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CLANTON...TO
WEDOWEE AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE JUST A BIT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON FOR EVERYONE. WE
COULD SEE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE REDUCED DOWN TO A MINIMUM.
STILL...HAVE INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE`LL RE-EVALUATE THOSE CHANCES ON THE
SATURDAY MORNING PACKAGE FROM THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDING DATA...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 100S NORTH TO AS HIGH AS
109 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY WILL BE A SORT OF TRANSITION DAY...AS A RELATIVELY COOLER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE EASTERLY FLOW
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT UPPER
90S TO CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES FOR HIGHS...AND WE`VE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM DOUBLE SPRINGS...TO CENTREVILLE...TO MONTGOMERY THROUGH 9PM
SUNDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS EAST WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES GO UP AS UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE RETROGRADING
HEAT RIDGE.

FORTUNATELY...THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULDN`T LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMO ON TEMPS. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET SOME LIGHT
FOG OVERNIGHT...I JUST THINK THE POSSIBILITIES ARE REMOTE ENOUGH
SO THAT WE CAN LEAVE OUT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR NOW.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     97  72  98  73  93 /  20  10  10  10  30
ANNISTON    97  73  98  74  94 /  20  10  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  98  75  98  75  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  99  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      98  74  99  75  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      97  74  98  75  94 /  30  20  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  99  75 100  75  98 /  30  20  10  10  30
TROY        98  73  99  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...
FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...
WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...
CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...
ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 221017
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING HIGH HEAT INDICES AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 107 TO 110 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS TODAY BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST
STRETCHING WELL INLAND AFFECTING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWFA TODAY.
WITH DEEP RIDGING CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PWATS STILL AROUND 1.85 INCHES FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND
LIMITED CAPPING ALOFT HAS MADE TODAYS RAIN FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING...LEADING ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE...EXPANDING THESE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST GENERALLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A
MORE WELL DEFINED THETA E AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWFA TO THE AL/MS COAST IS ALSO NOTED FROM THE CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. CURRENT PHYSICAL GUIDANCE ALSO
DEPICTS BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. WITH
WEAK FORCING ALSO NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOST OF THE TODAYS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MET
AND MAV GUIDANCE RESULTING IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AGAIN SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ENHANCED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 925
MB TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO RANGE FROM 27-29 C ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD...WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105 AND 111 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A FEW
SPOTS MAY STAY JUST SHY OF THE 108 DEGREE ADVISORY CRITERIA...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO OR WITHIN THE ADVISORY
RANGE...SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE CWFA IN A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SEABREEZE WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.9 INCHES.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE REGION...
AND WILL TREND POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA
MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN
LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION [22.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
23.12Z. COULD SEE LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED  SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 23.01Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO
WEST 4 TO 6 KNOTS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES MOSTLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT A PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  75  96  75  97 /  30  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  79  95  78  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      91  81  95  80  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   97  73  99  72  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  96  72  98  73  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
CAMDEN      98  72  99  75  98 /  30  20  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   98  75  99  74  99 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA
     ROSA...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21





000
FXUS64 KMOB 221017
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING HIGH HEAT INDICES AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 107 TO 110 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS TODAY BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST
STRETCHING WELL INLAND AFFECTING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWFA TODAY.
WITH DEEP RIDGING CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PWATS STILL AROUND 1.85 INCHES FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND
LIMITED CAPPING ALOFT HAS MADE TODAYS RAIN FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING...LEADING ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE...EXPANDING THESE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST GENERALLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A
MORE WELL DEFINED THETA E AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWFA TO THE AL/MS COAST IS ALSO NOTED FROM THE CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. CURRENT PHYSICAL GUIDANCE ALSO
DEPICTS BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. WITH
WEAK FORCING ALSO NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOST OF THE TODAYS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MET
AND MAV GUIDANCE RESULTING IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AGAIN SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ENHANCED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 925
MB TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO RANGE FROM 27-29 C ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD...WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105 AND 111 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A FEW
SPOTS MAY STAY JUST SHY OF THE 108 DEGREE ADVISORY CRITERIA...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO OR WITHIN THE ADVISORY
RANGE...SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE CWFA IN A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SEABREEZE WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.9 INCHES.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE REGION...
AND WILL TREND POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA
MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN
LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION [22.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
23.12Z. COULD SEE LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED  SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 23.01Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO
WEST 4 TO 6 KNOTS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES MOSTLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT A PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  75  96  75  97 /  30  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  79  95  78  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      91  81  95  80  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   97  73  99  72  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  96  72  98  73  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
CAMDEN      98  72  99  75  98 /  30  20  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   98  75  99  74  99 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA
     ROSA...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21





000
FXUS64 KMOB 221017
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING HIGH HEAT INDICES AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 107 TO 110 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS TODAY BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST
STRETCHING WELL INLAND AFFECTING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWFA TODAY.
WITH DEEP RIDGING CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PWATS STILL AROUND 1.85 INCHES FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND
LIMITED CAPPING ALOFT HAS MADE TODAYS RAIN FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING...LEADING ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE...EXPANDING THESE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST GENERALLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A
MORE WELL DEFINED THETA E AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWFA TO THE AL/MS COAST IS ALSO NOTED FROM THE CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. CURRENT PHYSICAL GUIDANCE ALSO
DEPICTS BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. WITH
WEAK FORCING ALSO NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOST OF THE TODAYS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MET
AND MAV GUIDANCE RESULTING IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AGAIN SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ENHANCED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 925
MB TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO RANGE FROM 27-29 C ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD...WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105 AND 111 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A FEW
SPOTS MAY STAY JUST SHY OF THE 108 DEGREE ADVISORY CRITERIA...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO OR WITHIN THE ADVISORY
RANGE...SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE CWFA IN A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SEABREEZE WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.9 INCHES.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE REGION...
AND WILL TREND POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA
MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN
LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION [22.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
23.12Z. COULD SEE LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED  SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 23.01Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO
WEST 4 TO 6 KNOTS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES MOSTLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT A PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  75  96  75  97 /  30  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  79  95  78  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      91  81  95  80  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   97  73  99  72  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  96  72  98  73  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
CAMDEN      98  72  99  75  98 /  30  20  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   98  75  99  74  99 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA
     ROSA...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21





000
FXUS64 KMOB 221017
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING HIGH HEAT INDICES AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 107 TO 110 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS TODAY BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST
STRETCHING WELL INLAND AFFECTING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWFA TODAY.
WITH DEEP RIDGING CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PWATS STILL AROUND 1.85 INCHES FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND
LIMITED CAPPING ALOFT HAS MADE TODAYS RAIN FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING...LEADING ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE...EXPANDING THESE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST GENERALLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A
MORE WELL DEFINED THETA E AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWFA TO THE AL/MS COAST IS ALSO NOTED FROM THE CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. CURRENT PHYSICAL GUIDANCE ALSO
DEPICTS BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. WITH
WEAK FORCING ALSO NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOST OF THE TODAYS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MET
AND MAV GUIDANCE RESULTING IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AGAIN SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ENHANCED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 925
MB TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO RANGE FROM 27-29 C ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD...WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105 AND 111 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A FEW
SPOTS MAY STAY JUST SHY OF THE 108 DEGREE ADVISORY CRITERIA...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO OR WITHIN THE ADVISORY
RANGE...SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE CWFA IN A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SEABREEZE WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.9 INCHES.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 105-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD BY MONDAY...STILL EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO OVER 2.25 INCHES...AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE REGION...
AND WILL TREND POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA
MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING MAY BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD KNOCK HIGHS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY. READINGS THEN
LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION [22.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
23.12Z. COULD SEE LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED  SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 23.01Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO
WEST 4 TO 6 KNOTS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES MOSTLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT A PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  75  96  75  97 /  30  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  79  95  78  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      91  81  95  80  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   97  73  99  72  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  96  72  98  73  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
CAMDEN      98  72  99  75  98 /  30  20  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   98  75  99  74  99 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA
     ROSA...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21





000
FXUS64 KHUN 220520
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 919 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD BEEN LINGERING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALL
DISSIPATED AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY COOLED OFF INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING OR RISING INTO THE LOW
70S. AS A RESULT, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG
RIVERS...LAKES...AND VALLEYS.

DEWPOINTS LOOKED TO BE UNDERDONE FOR TOMORROW ESPECIALLY WITH NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MAIN
REASONING IS THAT WITH SFC RIDGING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOMENTUM
MIXING, THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRY AIR MIXING DOWN.
IN FACT, BY 15-18Z, IF ANYTHING MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MS RIVER
DELTA REGION MAY ACTUALLY KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL. THUS,
WITH THE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE DEWPOINTS BASED OFF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING DAYTIME HIGHS
TOMORROW, HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE BETWEEN 100-107 DEGREES.

THE HOTTEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE
INTERSTATE 65/565 CORRIDOR WESTWARD INCLUDING MADISON, LIMESTONE,
CULLMAN, MORGAN, LAWRENCE, LAUDERDALE, COLBERT, AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN ALABAMA. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 104-107. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS IN
EFFECT TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM 11AM-7PM CDT.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS, VALLEYS,
AND LAKES OF N AL/S MIDDLE TN THAT WILL ACT TO LOWER VIS CLOSE TO
MVFR BTWN 09-13Z ESPECIALLY NEAR KMSL.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 220520
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 919 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD BEEN LINGERING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALL
DISSIPATED AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY COOLED OFF INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING OR RISING INTO THE LOW
70S. AS A RESULT, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG
RIVERS...LAKES...AND VALLEYS.

DEWPOINTS LOOKED TO BE UNDERDONE FOR TOMORROW ESPECIALLY WITH NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MAIN
REASONING IS THAT WITH SFC RIDGING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOMENTUM
MIXING, THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRY AIR MIXING DOWN.
IN FACT, BY 15-18Z, IF ANYTHING MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MS RIVER
DELTA REGION MAY ACTUALLY KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL. THUS,
WITH THE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE DEWPOINTS BASED OFF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING DAYTIME HIGHS
TOMORROW, HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE BETWEEN 100-107 DEGREES.

THE HOTTEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE
INTERSTATE 65/565 CORRIDOR WESTWARD INCLUDING MADISON, LIMESTONE,
CULLMAN, MORGAN, LAWRENCE, LAUDERDALE, COLBERT, AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN ALABAMA. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 104-107. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS IN
EFFECT TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM 11AM-7PM CDT.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS, VALLEYS,
AND LAKES OF N AL/S MIDDLE TN THAT WILL ACT TO LOWER VIS CLOSE TO
MVFR BTWN 09-13Z ESPECIALLY NEAR KMSL.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 220520
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 919 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD BEEN LINGERING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALL
DISSIPATED AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY COOLED OFF INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING OR RISING INTO THE LOW
70S. AS A RESULT, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG
RIVERS...LAKES...AND VALLEYS.

DEWPOINTS LOOKED TO BE UNDERDONE FOR TOMORROW ESPECIALLY WITH NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MAIN
REASONING IS THAT WITH SFC RIDGING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOMENTUM
MIXING, THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRY AIR MIXING DOWN.
IN FACT, BY 15-18Z, IF ANYTHING MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MS RIVER
DELTA REGION MAY ACTUALLY KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL. THUS,
WITH THE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE DEWPOINTS BASED OFF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING DAYTIME HIGHS
TOMORROW, HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE BETWEEN 100-107 DEGREES.

THE HOTTEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE
INTERSTATE 65/565 CORRIDOR WESTWARD INCLUDING MADISON, LIMESTONE,
CULLMAN, MORGAN, LAWRENCE, LAUDERDALE, COLBERT, AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN ALABAMA. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 104-107. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS IN
EFFECT TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM 11AM-7PM CDT.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS, VALLEYS,
AND LAKES OF N AL/S MIDDLE TN THAT WILL ACT TO LOWER VIS CLOSE TO
MVFR BTWN 09-13Z ESPECIALLY NEAR KMSL.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 220520
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 919 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD BEEN LINGERING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALL
DISSIPATED AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY COOLED OFF INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING OR RISING INTO THE LOW
70S. AS A RESULT, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG
RIVERS...LAKES...AND VALLEYS.

DEWPOINTS LOOKED TO BE UNDERDONE FOR TOMORROW ESPECIALLY WITH NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MAIN
REASONING IS THAT WITH SFC RIDGING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOMENTUM
MIXING, THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRY AIR MIXING DOWN.
IN FACT, BY 15-18Z, IF ANYTHING MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MS RIVER
DELTA REGION MAY ACTUALLY KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL. THUS,
WITH THE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE DEWPOINTS BASED OFF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING DAYTIME HIGHS
TOMORROW, HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE BETWEEN 100-107 DEGREES.

THE HOTTEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE
INTERSTATE 65/565 CORRIDOR WESTWARD INCLUDING MADISON, LIMESTONE,
CULLMAN, MORGAN, LAWRENCE, LAUDERDALE, COLBERT, AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN ALABAMA. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 104-107. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS IN
EFFECT TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM 11AM-7PM CDT.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS, VALLEYS,
AND LAKES OF N AL/S MIDDLE TN THAT WILL ACT TO LOWER VIS CLOSE TO
MVFR BTWN 09-13Z ESPECIALLY NEAR KMSL.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 220458
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOWS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE ADDITION OF ALL
THAT HEAT OUT THERE THIS EVENING. IT TRULY HAS BEEN A TYPICAL
SUMMER NIGHT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. REALLY TWO MAIN OUTFLOWS LEFT
FOR THE NIGHT. ONE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST AND IS NOW RAPIDLY
ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE STORM IN PICKENS COUNTY. WILL STILL SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE. A SECOND BOUNDARY IS MOVING WEST THROUGH BIBB
COUNTY AND IS THE REMNANT OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
THE BIRMINGHAM METRO EARLIER TONIGHT. THAT STORM FORMED ON A
BOUNDARY THAT GENERATED FROM THE STORMS IN WESTERN GEORGIA EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE CONTINUE TO LOOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN ATTENTION
SHIFTS TO THE HEAT WAVE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET SOME LIGHT
FOG OVERNIGHT...I JUST THINK THE POSSIBILITIES ARE REMOTE ENOUGH
SO THAT WE CAN LEAVE OUT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR NOW.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 220458
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOWS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE ADDITION OF ALL
THAT HEAT OUT THERE THIS EVENING. IT TRULY HAS BEEN A TYPICAL
SUMMER NIGHT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. REALLY TWO MAIN OUTFLOWS LEFT
FOR THE NIGHT. ONE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST AND IS NOW RAPIDLY
ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE STORM IN PICKENS COUNTY. WILL STILL SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE. A SECOND BOUNDARY IS MOVING WEST THROUGH BIBB
COUNTY AND IS THE REMNANT OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
THE BIRMINGHAM METRO EARLIER TONIGHT. THAT STORM FORMED ON A
BOUNDARY THAT GENERATED FROM THE STORMS IN WESTERN GEORGIA EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE CONTINUE TO LOOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN ATTENTION
SHIFTS TO THE HEAT WAVE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET SOME LIGHT
FOG OVERNIGHT...I JUST THINK THE POSSIBILITIES ARE REMOTE ENOUGH
SO THAT WE CAN LEAVE OUT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR NOW.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 220455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. POTENTIAL OF SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG PRIOR TO
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NEW DATA IS INDICATING A LITTLE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND AS A
RESULT...WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR MID/LATE AFTN AT THE TAF SITES. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z SAT. A LIGHT NW WIND DEVELOPS BY EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST...WITH A RETURN TO SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AFTN
SEABREEZE. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

UPDATED...EARLY EVENING FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED STORMS
OVER INLAND SE MS AS CONVECTION IS LINGERING OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. 34/JFB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

.ELEVATED TO HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED OCCURRENCE OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS....

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...RIDGING (SFC AND ALOFT)
OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE DRY...AND HOT...PATTERN
IN THE SHORT TERM. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE WILL PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DARK.
CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...CURRENT HEAT INDICES (HI) ARE IN THE 102-107
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING HI`S AROUND 108 OR JUST ABOVE.
DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED TONIGHT...AND MIN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S
COASTAL. FOR FRIDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY BUT PERHAPS
EVEN A LITTLE HOTTER OVER THE INTERIOR. OVERALL MAX TEMPS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S COASTAL.
HEAT INDICES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE 104-108 DEGREE RANGE
(WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS ABOVE 108 DEGREES). HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA IS 108 TO 112 DEGREES...AND WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED VALUES IN THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE...OVERALL MAX
HI`S ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WE DID ISSUE ANOTHER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REFERENCING THE HEAT AND WILL MONITOR
TRENDS. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW...MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PRIMARILY CLOSER TO THE COAST. 12/DS

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MUGGY SIDE...LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR...CLOSER
TO 80 AT THE BEACHES. LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED OVER THE GULF. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.

DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEK IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH 72 TO 75 INTERIOR TO 78 TO 81
ALONG THE COAST/BEACHES. /10/21

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THEN GRADUALLY BUILD BEGINNING BY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS AND A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS JUST
INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED.
12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 220455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. POTENTIAL OF SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG PRIOR TO
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NEW DATA IS INDICATING A LITTLE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND AS A
RESULT...WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR MID/LATE AFTN AT THE TAF SITES. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z SAT. A LIGHT NW WIND DEVELOPS BY EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST...WITH A RETURN TO SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AFTN
SEABREEZE. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

UPDATED...EARLY EVENING FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED STORMS
OVER INLAND SE MS AS CONVECTION IS LINGERING OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. 34/JFB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

.ELEVATED TO HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED OCCURRENCE OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS....

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...RIDGING (SFC AND ALOFT)
OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE DRY...AND HOT...PATTERN
IN THE SHORT TERM. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE WILL PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DARK.
CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...CURRENT HEAT INDICES (HI) ARE IN THE 102-107
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING HI`S AROUND 108 OR JUST ABOVE.
DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED TONIGHT...AND MIN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S
COASTAL. FOR FRIDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY BUT PERHAPS
EVEN A LITTLE HOTTER OVER THE INTERIOR. OVERALL MAX TEMPS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S COASTAL.
HEAT INDICES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE 104-108 DEGREE RANGE
(WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS ABOVE 108 DEGREES). HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA IS 108 TO 112 DEGREES...AND WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED VALUES IN THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE...OVERALL MAX
HI`S ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WE DID ISSUE ANOTHER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REFERENCING THE HEAT AND WILL MONITOR
TRENDS. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW...MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PRIMARILY CLOSER TO THE COAST. 12/DS

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MUGGY SIDE...LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR...CLOSER
TO 80 AT THE BEACHES. LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED OVER THE GULF. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.

DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEK IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH 72 TO 75 INTERIOR TO 78 TO 81
ALONG THE COAST/BEACHES. /10/21

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THEN GRADUALLY BUILD BEGINNING BY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS AND A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS JUST
INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED.
12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 220237
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
937 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOWS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE ADDITION OF ALL
THAT HEAT OUT THERE THIS EVENING. IT TRULY HAS BEEN A TYPICAL
SUMMER NIGHT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. REALLY TWO MAIN OUTFLOWS LEFT
FOR THE NIGHT. ONE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST AND IS NOW RAPIDLY
ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE STORM IN PICKENS COUNTY. WILL STILL SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE. A SECOND BOUNDARY IS MOVING WEST THROUGH BIBB
COUNTY AND IS THE REMNANT OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
THE BIRMINGHAM METRO EARLIER TONIGHT. THAT STORM FORMED ON A
BOUNDARY THAT GENERATED FROM THE STORMS IN WESTERN GEORGIA EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE CONTINUE TO LOOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN ATTENTION
SHIFTS TO THE HEAT WAVE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS AT TOI DURING THE FIRST HOUR OF THE FORECAST.
THE INCREASINGLY STAGNANT AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO SOME HAZE OR LIGHT
FOG IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...I THINK THAT
WILL BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. RAIN COVERAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

61


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
PUSHING 100 DEGREES BOTH DAYS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEW
POINTS WIN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM FRIDAY THRU 9PM
SATURDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE TRY TO LIMIT STRENUOUS
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE MAKE SURE YOU TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS AND STAY HYDRATED.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING AND SFC WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISO-SCT CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A COUPLE IMPULSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST
BEYOND MONDAY WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  97  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    71  97  73  97  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  74  98  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  99  73  99  74 /  20   0  10   0  10
CALERA      73  98  74  98  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      73  97  74  96  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  75  99  75 100  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
TROY        72  98  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 220237
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
937 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOWS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE ADDITION OF ALL
THAT HEAT OUT THERE THIS EVENING. IT TRULY HAS BEEN A TYPICAL
SUMMER NIGHT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. REALLY TWO MAIN OUTFLOWS LEFT
FOR THE NIGHT. ONE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST AND IS NOW RAPIDLY
ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE STORM IN PICKENS COUNTY. WILL STILL SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE. A SECOND BOUNDARY IS MOVING WEST THROUGH BIBB
COUNTY AND IS THE REMNANT OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
THE BIRMINGHAM METRO EARLIER TONIGHT. THAT STORM FORMED ON A
BOUNDARY THAT GENERATED FROM THE STORMS IN WESTERN GEORGIA EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE CONTINUE TO LOOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN ATTENTION
SHIFTS TO THE HEAT WAVE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS AT TOI DURING THE FIRST HOUR OF THE FORECAST.
THE INCREASINGLY STAGNANT AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO SOME HAZE OR LIGHT
FOG IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...I THINK THAT
WILL BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. RAIN COVERAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

61


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
PUSHING 100 DEGREES BOTH DAYS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEW
POINTS WIN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM FRIDAY THRU 9PM
SATURDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE TRY TO LIMIT STRENUOUS
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE MAKE SURE YOU TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS AND STAY HYDRATED.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING AND SFC WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISO-SCT CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A COUPLE IMPULSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST
BEYOND MONDAY WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  97  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    71  97  73  97  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  74  98  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  99  73  99  74 /  20   0  10   0  10
CALERA      73  98  74  98  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      73  97  74  96  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  75  99  75 100  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
TROY        72  98  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 220219 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
919 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, ADD PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT, ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINT FORECAST TONIGHT/TOMORROW, AND
ISSUANCE OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD BEEN LINGERING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALL
DISSIPATED AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY COOLED OFF INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING OR RISING INTO THE LOW
70S. AS A RESULT, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG
RIVERS...LAKES...AND VALLEYS.

DEWPOINTS LOOKED TO BE UNDERDONE FOR TOMORROW ESPECIALLY WITH NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MAIN
REASONING IS THAT WITH SFC RIDGING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOMENTUM
MIXING, THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRY AIR MIXING DOWN.
IN FACT, BY 15-18Z, IF ANYTHING MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MS RIVER
DELTA REGION MAY ACTUALLY KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL. THUS,
WITH THE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE DEWPOINTS BASED OFF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING DAYTIME HIGHS
TOMORROW, HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE BETWEEN 100-107 DEGREES.

THE HOTTEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE
INTERSTATE 65/565 CORRIDOR WESTWARD INCLUDING MADISON, LIMESTONE,
CULLMAN, MORGAN, LAWRENCE, LAUDERDALE, COLBERT, AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN ALABAMA. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 104-107. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS IN
EFFECT TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM 11AM-7PM CDT.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE NEAR
KMSL BTWN 09-13Z. MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE BTWN THOSE TIME FRAMES AT
KMSL.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 220010 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
711 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATED...EARLY EVENING FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED STORMS
OVER INLAND SE MS AS CONVECTION IS LINGERING OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...ISOLATED STORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. LIGHT SW WINDS
THIS EVENING BECOME ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPING AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

..ELEVATED TO HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED OCCURRENCE OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS....

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...RIDGING (SFC AND ALOFT)
OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE DRY...AND HOT...PATTERN
IN THE SHORT TERM. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE WILL PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DARK.
CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...CURRENT HEAT INDICES (HI) ARE IN THE 102-107
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING HI`S AROUND 108 OR JUST ABOVE.
DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED TONIGHT...AND MIN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S
COASTAL. FOR FRIDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY BUT PERHAPS
EVEN A LITTLE HOTTER OVER THE INTERIOR. OVERALL MAX TEMPS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S COASTAL.
HEAT INDICES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE 104-108 DEGREE RANGE
(WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS ABOVE 108 DEGREES). HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA IS 108 TO 112 DEGREES...AND WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED VALUES IN THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE...OVERALL MAX
HI`S ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WE DID ISSUE ANOTHER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REFERENCING THE HEAT AND WILL MONITOR
TRENDS. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW...MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PRIMARILY CLOSER TO THE COAST. 12/DS

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MUGGY SIDE...LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR...CLOSER
TO 80 AT THE BEACHES. LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED OVER THE GULF. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.

DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEK IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH 72 TO 75 INTERIOR TO 78 TO 81
ALONG THE COAST/BEACHES. /10/21

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THEN GRADUALLY BUILD BEGINNING BY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS AND A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS JUST
INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED.
12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 220010 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
711 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATED...EARLY EVENING FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED STORMS
OVER INLAND SE MS AS CONVECTION IS LINGERING OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...ISOLATED STORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. LIGHT SW WINDS
THIS EVENING BECOME ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPING AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

..ELEVATED TO HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED OCCURRENCE OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS....

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...RIDGING (SFC AND ALOFT)
OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE DRY...AND HOT...PATTERN
IN THE SHORT TERM. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE WILL PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DARK.
CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...CURRENT HEAT INDICES (HI) ARE IN THE 102-107
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING HI`S AROUND 108 OR JUST ABOVE.
DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED TONIGHT...AND MIN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S
COASTAL. FOR FRIDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY BUT PERHAPS
EVEN A LITTLE HOTTER OVER THE INTERIOR. OVERALL MAX TEMPS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S COASTAL.
HEAT INDICES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE 104-108 DEGREE RANGE
(WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS ABOVE 108 DEGREES). HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA IS 108 TO 112 DEGREES...AND WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED VALUES IN THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE...OVERALL MAX
HI`S ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WE DID ISSUE ANOTHER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REFERENCING THE HEAT AND WILL MONITOR
TRENDS. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW...MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PRIMARILY CLOSER TO THE COAST. 12/DS

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MUGGY SIDE...LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR...CLOSER
TO 80 AT THE BEACHES. LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED OVER THE GULF. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.

DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEK IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH 72 TO 75 INTERIOR TO 78 TO 81
ALONG THE COAST/BEACHES. /10/21

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THEN GRADUALLY BUILD BEGINNING BY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS AND A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS JUST
INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED.
12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 212357 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
657 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...ISOLATED STORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. LIGHT SW WINDS
THIS EVENING BECOME ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPING AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

..ELEVATED TO HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED OCCURRENCE OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS....

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...RIDGING (SFC AND ALOFT)
OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE DRY...AND HOT...PATTERN
IN THE SHORT TERM. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE WILL PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DARK.
CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...CURRENT HEAT INDICES (HI) ARE IN THE 102-107
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING HI`S AROUND 108 OR JUST ABOVE.
DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED TONIGHT...AND MIN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S
COASTAL. FOR FRIDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY BUT PERHAPS
EVEN A LITTLE HOTTER OVER THE INTERIOR. OVERALL MAX TEMPS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S COASTAL.
HEAT INDICES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE 104-108 DEGREE RANGE
(WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS ABOVE 108 DEGREES). HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA IS 108 TO 112 DEGREES...AND WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED VALUES IN THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE...OVERALL MAX
HI`S ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WE DID ISSUE ANOTHER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REFERENCING THE HEAT AND WILL MONITOR
TRENDS. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW...MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PRIMARILY CLOSER TO THE COAST. 12/DS

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MUGGY SIDE...LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR...CLOSER
TO 80 AT THE BEACHES. LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED OVER THE GULF. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.

DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEK IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH 72 TO 75 INTERIOR TO 78 TO 81
ALONG THE COAST/BEACHES. /10/21

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THEN GRADUALLY BUILD BEGINNING BY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS AND A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS JUST
INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED.
12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 212357 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
657 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...ISOLATED STORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. LIGHT SW WINDS
THIS EVENING BECOME ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPING AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

..ELEVATED TO HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED OCCURRENCE OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS....

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...RIDGING (SFC AND ALOFT)
OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE DRY...AND HOT...PATTERN
IN THE SHORT TERM. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE WILL PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DARK.
CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...CURRENT HEAT INDICES (HI) ARE IN THE 102-107
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING HI`S AROUND 108 OR JUST ABOVE.
DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED TONIGHT...AND MIN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S
COASTAL. FOR FRIDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY BUT PERHAPS
EVEN A LITTLE HOTTER OVER THE INTERIOR. OVERALL MAX TEMPS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S COASTAL.
HEAT INDICES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE 104-108 DEGREE RANGE
(WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS ABOVE 108 DEGREES). HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA IS 108 TO 112 DEGREES...AND WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED VALUES IN THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE...OVERALL MAX
HI`S ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WE DID ISSUE ANOTHER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REFERENCING THE HEAT AND WILL MONITOR
TRENDS. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW...MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PRIMARILY CLOSER TO THE COAST. 12/DS

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MUGGY SIDE...LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR...CLOSER
TO 80 AT THE BEACHES. LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED OVER THE GULF. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.

DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEK IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH 72 TO 75 INTERIOR TO 78 TO 81
ALONG THE COAST/BEACHES. /10/21

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THEN GRADUALLY BUILD BEGINNING BY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS AND A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS JUST
INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED.
12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 212331
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THANKS TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT IN THE
98-105 DEGREE RANGE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCLUDED ISO WORDING FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. JUST
LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW 70S.

THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S PUSHING 100
DEGREES BOTH DAYS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS WIN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE
105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM FRIDAY THRU 9PM SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE TRY TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE MAKE SURE YOU TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND STAY
HYDRATED.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING AND SFC WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISO-SCT CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A COUPLE IMPULSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST
BEYOND MONDAY WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS AT TOI DURING THE FIRST HOUR OF THE FORECAST.
THE INCREASINGLY STAGNANT AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO SOME HAZE OR LIGHT
FOG IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...I THINK THAT
WILL BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. RAIN COVERAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

61

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 212331
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THANKS TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT IN THE
98-105 DEGREE RANGE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCLUDED ISO WORDING FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. JUST
LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW 70S.

THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S PUSHING 100
DEGREES BOTH DAYS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS WIN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE
105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM FRIDAY THRU 9PM SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE TRY TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE MAKE SURE YOU TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND STAY
HYDRATED.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING AND SFC WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISO-SCT CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A COUPLE IMPULSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST
BEYOND MONDAY WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS AT TOI DURING THE FIRST HOUR OF THE FORECAST.
THE INCREASINGLY STAGNANT AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO SOME HAZE OR LIGHT
FOG IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...I THINK THAT
WILL BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. RAIN COVERAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

61

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 212331
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THANKS TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT IN THE
98-105 DEGREE RANGE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCLUDED ISO WORDING FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. JUST
LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW 70S.

THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S PUSHING 100
DEGREES BOTH DAYS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS WIN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE
105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM FRIDAY THRU 9PM SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE TRY TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE MAKE SURE YOU TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND STAY
HYDRATED.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING AND SFC WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISO-SCT CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A COUPLE IMPULSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST
BEYOND MONDAY WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS AT TOI DURING THE FIRST HOUR OF THE FORECAST.
THE INCREASINGLY STAGNANT AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO SOME HAZE OR LIGHT
FOG IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...I THINK THAT
WILL BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. RAIN COVERAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

61

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 212331
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THANKS TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT IN THE
98-105 DEGREE RANGE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCLUDED ISO WORDING FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. JUST
LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW 70S.

THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S PUSHING 100
DEGREES BOTH DAYS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS WIN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE
105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM FRIDAY THRU 9PM SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE TRY TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE MAKE SURE YOU TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND STAY
HYDRATED.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING AND SFC WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISO-SCT CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A COUPLE IMPULSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST
BEYOND MONDAY WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS AT TOI DURING THE FIRST HOUR OF THE FORECAST.
THE INCREASINGLY STAGNANT AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO SOME HAZE OR LIGHT
FOG IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...I THINK THAT
WILL BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. RAIN COVERAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

61

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 212302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 223 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
THE 19Z IR/VISIBLE AND 88-D IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE CAP WAS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY BREAK A LITTLE OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. TEMPS WERE IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.
BASED UPON AREA RADAR TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP JUST PAST THE 00Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT ALL
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE FINISHED BY 02Z.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN CONTINUING TO BUILD THE
UPPER SURFACE RIDGE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...DUE TO AN EXPECTED INCREASING WARM LAYER ALOFT AS INDICATED
BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECT THAT HEAT INDICES WILL FALL JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SHOALS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HOTTER IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS
THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS COMPARED TO SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING AND
WEAKENING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO MAKE IT AT LEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH AXIS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ATTEMPT TO SWING SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA. WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MORE
TOWARD ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BE DUE TO MORE CLOUDS/LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH
BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
INVOLVING DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS TO MAKE IT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY.
LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM WILL HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE NEAR
KMSL BTWN 09-13Z. MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE BTWN THOSE TIME FRAMES AT
KMSL.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 212302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 223 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
THE 19Z IR/VISIBLE AND 88-D IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE CAP WAS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY BREAK A LITTLE OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. TEMPS WERE IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.
BASED UPON AREA RADAR TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP JUST PAST THE 00Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT ALL
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE FINISHED BY 02Z.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN CONTINUING TO BUILD THE
UPPER SURFACE RIDGE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...DUE TO AN EXPECTED INCREASING WARM LAYER ALOFT AS INDICATED
BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECT THAT HEAT INDICES WILL FALL JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SHOALS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HOTTER IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS
THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS COMPARED TO SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING AND
WEAKENING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO MAKE IT AT LEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH AXIS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ATTEMPT TO SWING SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA. WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MORE
TOWARD ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BE DUE TO MORE CLOUDS/LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH
BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
INVOLVING DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS TO MAKE IT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY.
LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM WILL HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE NEAR
KMSL BTWN 09-13Z. MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE BTWN THOSE TIME FRAMES AT
KMSL.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 212302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 223 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
THE 19Z IR/VISIBLE AND 88-D IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE CAP WAS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY BREAK A LITTLE OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. TEMPS WERE IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.
BASED UPON AREA RADAR TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP JUST PAST THE 00Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT ALL
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE FINISHED BY 02Z.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN CONTINUING TO BUILD THE
UPPER SURFACE RIDGE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...DUE TO AN EXPECTED INCREASING WARM LAYER ALOFT AS INDICATED
BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECT THAT HEAT INDICES WILL FALL JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SHOALS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HOTTER IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS
THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS COMPARED TO SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING AND
WEAKENING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO MAKE IT AT LEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH AXIS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ATTEMPT TO SWING SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA. WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MORE
TOWARD ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BE DUE TO MORE CLOUDS/LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH
BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
INVOLVING DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS TO MAKE IT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY.
LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM WILL HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE NEAR
KMSL BTWN 09-13Z. MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE BTWN THOSE TIME FRAMES AT
KMSL.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 212302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 223 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
THE 19Z IR/VISIBLE AND 88-D IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE CAP WAS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY BREAK A LITTLE OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. TEMPS WERE IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.
BASED UPON AREA RADAR TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP JUST PAST THE 00Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT ALL
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE FINISHED BY 02Z.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN CONTINUING TO BUILD THE
UPPER SURFACE RIDGE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...DUE TO AN EXPECTED INCREASING WARM LAYER ALOFT AS INDICATED
BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECT THAT HEAT INDICES WILL FALL JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SHOALS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HOTTER IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS
THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS COMPARED TO SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING AND
WEAKENING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO MAKE IT AT LEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH AXIS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ATTEMPT TO SWING SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA. WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MORE
TOWARD ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BE DUE TO MORE CLOUDS/LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH
BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
INVOLVING DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS TO MAKE IT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY.
LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM WILL HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE NEAR
KMSL BTWN 09-13Z. MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE BTWN THOSE TIME FRAMES AT
KMSL.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 212101
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...ELEVATED TO HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED OCCURRENCE OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS....

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...RIDGING (SFC AND ALOFT) OVER THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE DRY...AND HOT...PATTERN IN THE
SHORT TERM. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION AND THESE WILL PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DARK. CURRENT
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS. WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...CURRENT HEAT INDICES (HI) ARE IN THE 102-107 DEGREE
RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING HI`S AROUND 108 OR JUST ABOVE. DEWPOINT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED TONIGHT...AND MIN TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COASTAL. FOR
FRIDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY BUT PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
HOTTER OVER THE INTERIOR. OVERALL MAX TEMPS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S COASTAL. HEAT INDICES
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE 104-108 DEGREE RANGE (WITH SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ABOVE 108 DEGREES). HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR OUR
AREA IS 108 TO 112 DEGREES...AND WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
VALUES IN THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE...OVERALL MAX HI`S ARE EXPECTED
TO BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WE DID ISSUE ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT REFERENCING THE HEAT AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
PRIMARILY CLOSER TO THE COAST. 12/DS

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MUGGY SIDE...LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR...CLOSER
TO 80 AT THE BEACHES. LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED OVER THE GULF. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.

DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEK IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH 72 TO 75 INTERIOR TO 78 TO 81
ALONG THE COAST/BEACHES. /10/21

&&

.AVIATION (21/18Z & 22/00Z ISSUANCES)...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST THROUGH
NEXT 24 HOURS. VCTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE
COAST...BUT VERY ISOLATED AT BEST. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORMS DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET OVER LAND AREAS...BUT DEVELOP
OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT (SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS). LIGHT ONSHORE SFC WIND FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...LIGHT OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THEN GRADUALLY BUILD BEGINNING BY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS AND A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS JUST
INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED.
12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  97  75  97  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   78  97  79  98  79 /  10  20  10  20  10
DESTIN      79  91  80  93  80 /  10  20  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   72  99  72  99  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  73  99  73  99  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN      72  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   71  99  73 100  73 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 212101
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...ELEVATED TO HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED OCCURRENCE OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS....

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...RIDGING (SFC AND ALOFT) OVER THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE DRY...AND HOT...PATTERN IN THE
SHORT TERM. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION AND THESE WILL PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DARK. CURRENT
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS. WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...CURRENT HEAT INDICES (HI) ARE IN THE 102-107 DEGREE
RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING HI`S AROUND 108 OR JUST ABOVE. DEWPOINT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED TONIGHT...AND MIN TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COASTAL. FOR
FRIDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY BUT PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
HOTTER OVER THE INTERIOR. OVERALL MAX TEMPS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S COASTAL. HEAT INDICES
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE 104-108 DEGREE RANGE (WITH SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ABOVE 108 DEGREES). HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR OUR
AREA IS 108 TO 112 DEGREES...AND WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
VALUES IN THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE...OVERALL MAX HI`S ARE EXPECTED
TO BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WE DID ISSUE ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT REFERENCING THE HEAT AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
PRIMARILY CLOSER TO THE COAST. 12/DS

DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MUGGY SIDE...LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR...CLOSER
TO 80 AT THE BEACHES. LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED OVER THE GULF. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.

DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEK IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH 72 TO 75 INTERIOR TO 78 TO 81
ALONG THE COAST/BEACHES. /10/21

&&

.AVIATION (21/18Z & 22/00Z ISSUANCES)...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST THROUGH
NEXT 24 HOURS. VCTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE
COAST...BUT VERY ISOLATED AT BEST. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORMS DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET OVER LAND AREAS...BUT DEVELOP
OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT (SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS). LIGHT ONSHORE SFC WIND FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...LIGHT OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
PREDOMINANT LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THEN GRADUALLY BUILD BEGINNING BY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS AND A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS JUST
INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED.
12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  97  75  97  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   78  97  79  98  79 /  10  20  10  20  10
DESTIN      79  91  80  93  80 /  10  20  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   72  99  72  99  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  73  99  73  99  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN      72  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   71  99  73 100  73 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 212051
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THANKS TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT IN THE
98-105 DEGREE RANGE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCLUDED ISO WORDING FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. JUST
LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW 70S.

THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S PUSHING 100
DEGREES BOTH DAYS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS WIN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE
105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM FRIDAY THRU 9PM SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE TRY TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE MAKE SURE YOU TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND STAY
HYDRATED.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING AND SFC WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISO-SCT CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A COUPLE IMPULSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST
BEYOND MONDAY WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO CONCERNS WITH THE TAFS. VRF CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SMALL CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT HAZE
OR MIST IN THE EARLY MORNING BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  97  72  96  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    71  97  73  97  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  74  98  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  99  73  99  74 /  10   0  10   0  10
CALERA      73  98  74  98  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      73  97  74  96  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  75  99  75 100  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        72  98  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 211953
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION (21/18Z ISSUANCE) UPDATE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST THROUGH
NEXT 24 HOURS. VCTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE
COAST...BUT VERY ISOLATED AT BEST. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET OVER LAND AREAS...BUT DEVELOP
OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT (SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS). LIGHT ONSHORE SFC WIND FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...LIGHT OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWLS.

...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A WEAK
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY FORMING NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COVERAGE WILL BE
MOSTLY ISOLATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...MUCAPES UP 3400 J/KG...A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SFC DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM THE 104 TO 107 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH THESE
VALUES ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MENTIONING THESE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS IN
AGREEMENT WITH CENTERING THE ~594 DM HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
FACTOR IN AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST...AND HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS
110. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
BY FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE VERY CLOSE TO OUR LOCAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 108 DEGREES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING
HEAT INDICES IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND LOCAL GRAPHICS...AND LET NEXT SHIFTS MAKE AN ASSESSMENT
ON THE PLACEMENT/NECESSITY OF A HEAT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAINLY LOCATED ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND OR PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. /21

&&

.AVIATION [21.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
22.12Z. COULD SEE LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FORMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH ABOUT 22.00Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE
WEEK. LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES...THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN AND LOWER GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  75  97  75  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  77  96  79  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      92  79  94  80  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   97  72  99  73  99 /  20  05  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  97  74  98  73  99 /  10  05  10  10  10
CAMDEN      98  73  98  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   97  72  99  74  99 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21








000
FXUS64 KMOB 211953
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION (21/18Z ISSUANCE) UPDATE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST THROUGH
NEXT 24 HOURS. VCTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE
COAST...BUT VERY ISOLATED AT BEST. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET OVER LAND AREAS...BUT DEVELOP
OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT (SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS). LIGHT ONSHORE SFC WIND FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...LIGHT OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWLS.

...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A WEAK
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY FORMING NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COVERAGE WILL BE
MOSTLY ISOLATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...MUCAPES UP 3400 J/KG...A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SFC DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM THE 104 TO 107 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH THESE
VALUES ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MENTIONING THESE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS IN
AGREEMENT WITH CENTERING THE ~594 DM HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
FACTOR IN AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST...AND HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS
110. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
BY FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE VERY CLOSE TO OUR LOCAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 108 DEGREES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING
HEAT INDICES IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND LOCAL GRAPHICS...AND LET NEXT SHIFTS MAKE AN ASSESSMENT
ON THE PLACEMENT/NECESSITY OF A HEAT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAINLY LOCATED ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND OR PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. /21

&&

.AVIATION [21.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
22.12Z. COULD SEE LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FORMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH ABOUT 22.00Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE
WEEK. LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES...THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN AND LOWER GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  75  97  75  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  77  96  79  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      92  79  94  80  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   97  72  99  73  99 /  20  05  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  97  74  98  73  99 /  10  05  10  10  10
CAMDEN      98  73  98  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   97  72  99  74  99 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21








000
FXUS64 KMOB 211953
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION (21/18Z ISSUANCE) UPDATE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST THROUGH
NEXT 24 HOURS. VCTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE
COAST...BUT VERY ISOLATED AT BEST. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET OVER LAND AREAS...BUT DEVELOP
OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT (SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS). LIGHT ONSHORE SFC WIND FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...LIGHT OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWLS.

...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A WEAK
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY FORMING NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COVERAGE WILL BE
MOSTLY ISOLATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...MUCAPES UP 3400 J/KG...A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SFC DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM THE 104 TO 107 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH THESE
VALUES ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MENTIONING THESE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS IN
AGREEMENT WITH CENTERING THE ~594 DM HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
FACTOR IN AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST...AND HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS
110. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
BY FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE VERY CLOSE TO OUR LOCAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 108 DEGREES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING
HEAT INDICES IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND LOCAL GRAPHICS...AND LET NEXT SHIFTS MAKE AN ASSESSMENT
ON THE PLACEMENT/NECESSITY OF A HEAT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAINLY LOCATED ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND OR PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. /21

&&

.AVIATION [21.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
22.12Z. COULD SEE LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FORMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH ABOUT 22.00Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE
WEEK. LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES...THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN AND LOWER GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  75  97  75  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  77  96  79  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      92  79  94  80  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   97  72  99  73  99 /  20  05  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  97  74  98  73  99 /  10  05  10  10  10
CAMDEN      98  73  98  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   97  72  99  74  99 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21








000
FXUS64 KMOB 211953
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION (21/18Z ISSUANCE) UPDATE...PRIMARILY A VFR FCST THROUGH
NEXT 24 HOURS. VCTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE
COAST...BUT VERY ISOLATED AT BEST. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET OVER LAND AREAS...BUT DEVELOP
OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT (SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS). LIGHT ONSHORE SFC WIND FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...LIGHT OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWLS.

...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A WEAK
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY FORMING NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COVERAGE WILL BE
MOSTLY ISOLATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...MUCAPES UP 3400 J/KG...A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SFC DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM THE 104 TO 107 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH THESE
VALUES ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MENTIONING THESE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS IN
AGREEMENT WITH CENTERING THE ~594 DM HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
FACTOR IN AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST...AND HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS
110. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
BY FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE VERY CLOSE TO OUR LOCAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 108 DEGREES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING
HEAT INDICES IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND LOCAL GRAPHICS...AND LET NEXT SHIFTS MAKE AN ASSESSMENT
ON THE PLACEMENT/NECESSITY OF A HEAT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAINLY LOCATED ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND OR PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. /21

&&

.AVIATION [21.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
22.12Z. COULD SEE LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FORMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH ABOUT 22.00Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE
WEEK. LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES...THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN AND LOWER GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  75  97  75  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  77  96  79  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      92  79  94  80  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   97  72  99  73  99 /  20  05  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  97  74  98  73  99 /  10  05  10  10  10
CAMDEN      98  73  98  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   97  72  99  74  99 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21








000
FXUS64 KHUN 211923
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
223 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z IR/VISIBLE AND 88-D IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE CAP WAS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY BREAK A LITTLE OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. TEMPS WERE IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.
BASED UPON AREA RADAR TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP JUST PAST THE 00Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT ALL
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE FINISHED BY 02Z.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN CONTINUING TO BUILD THE
UPPER SURFACE RIDGE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...DUE TO AN EXPECTED INCREASING WARM LAYER ALOFT AS INDICATED
BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECT THAT HEAT INDICES WILL FALL JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SHOALS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HOTTER IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS
THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS COMPARED TO SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING AND
WEAKENING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO MAKE IT AT LEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH AXIS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ATTEMPT TO SWING SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA. WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MORE
TOWARD ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BE DUE TO MORE CLOUDS/LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH
BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
INVOLVING DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS TO MAKE IT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY.
LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM WILL HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1216 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU THE TAF PERIOD AT
KMSL/KHSV. WIND GUSTS ARND 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING, WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A FEW CU ~3KFT/CIRRUS ~25KFT
WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT EITHER
TERMINAL.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  96  74  97 /  20   0   0   0
SHOALS        73  98  74  97 /  20   0   0   0
VINEMONT      76  97  73  94 /  20   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  73  95  72  95 /  20   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   73  96  73  95 /  20   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    73  96  71  96 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 211728
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1228 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE SENT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO CONCERNS WITH THE TAFS. VRF CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SMALL CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT HAZE
OR MIST IN THE EARLY MORNING BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 211728
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1228 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE SENT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO CONCERNS WITH THE TAFS. VRF CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SMALL CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT HAZE
OR MIST IN THE EARLY MORNING BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 211716 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1216 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1003 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AT THIS HOUR, WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER 70S SPRINKLED
IN HERE AND THERE. TEMPS TODAY ARE ON TRACK (OR ARE A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER) THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS, WELL ON THE WAY
TO REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER SERN LA, WITH THE SFC REFLECTION
NOTED JUST A BIT EAST - OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AS OF 15Z ANALYSIS.
ASIDE FROM SUNNY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE
ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO OFFICIALLY ADD IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NERN AL, LINING UP WITH ANY
OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED LIFT, AS WELL AS ANY CONVECTION UPSTREAM
CLIPPING OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY.

MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE INTO THE LOW 100S
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. THIS
THREAT IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO FOR TODAY, AND MOST LIKELY, AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PACKAGE
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU THE TAF PERIOD AT
KMSL/KHSV. WIND GUSTS ARND 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING, WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A FEW CU ~3KFT/CIRRUS ~25KFT
WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT EITHER
TERMINAL.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211716 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1216 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1003 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AT THIS HOUR, WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER 70S SPRINKLED
IN HERE AND THERE. TEMPS TODAY ARE ON TRACK (OR ARE A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER) THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS, WELL ON THE WAY
TO REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER SERN LA, WITH THE SFC REFLECTION
NOTED JUST A BIT EAST - OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AS OF 15Z ANALYSIS.
ASIDE FROM SUNNY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE
ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO OFFICIALLY ADD IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NERN AL, LINING UP WITH ANY
OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED LIFT, AS WELL AS ANY CONVECTION UPSTREAM
CLIPPING OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY.

MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE INTO THE LOW 100S
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. THIS
THREAT IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO FOR TODAY, AND MOST LIKELY, AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PACKAGE
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU THE TAF PERIOD AT
KMSL/KHSV. WIND GUSTS ARND 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING, WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A FEW CU ~3KFT/CIRRUS ~25KFT
WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT EITHER
TERMINAL.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 211520
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1020 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE SENT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SPOTS WITH MVFR FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO
POSSIBLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE C AL TAFS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED HEAT INDUCED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS (IE...ANB)
PROBABILITY IS LOW AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF. EVEN
LESS CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH EVEN LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO WORK WITH TONIGHT AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES OVERALL.
OVERALL...THIS PACKAGE LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/MAYBE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS IN THE EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

08/MK


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 211520
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1020 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE SENT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SPOTS WITH MVFR FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO
POSSIBLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE C AL TAFS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED HEAT INDUCED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS (IE...ANB)
PROBABILITY IS LOW AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF. EVEN
LESS CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH EVEN LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO WORK WITH TONIGHT AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES OVERALL.
OVERALL...THIS PACKAGE LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/MAYBE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS IN THE EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

08/MK


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 211520
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1020 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE SENT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SPOTS WITH MVFR FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO
POSSIBLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE C AL TAFS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED HEAT INDUCED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS (IE...ANB)
PROBABILITY IS LOW AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF. EVEN
LESS CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH EVEN LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO WORK WITH TONIGHT AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES OVERALL.
OVERALL...THIS PACKAGE LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/MAYBE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS IN THE EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

08/MK


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 211520
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1020 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE SENT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SPOTS WITH MVFR FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO
POSSIBLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE C AL TAFS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED HEAT INDUCED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS (IE...ANB)
PROBABILITY IS LOW AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF. EVEN
LESS CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH EVEN LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO WORK WITH TONIGHT AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES OVERALL.
OVERALL...THIS PACKAGE LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/MAYBE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS IN THE EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

08/MK


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 211503
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1003 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AT THIS HOUR, WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER 70S SPRINKLED
IN HERE AND THERE. TEMPS TODAY ARE ON TRACK (OR ARE A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER) THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS, WELL ON THE WAY
TO REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER SERN LA, WITH THE SFC REFLECTION
NOTED JUST A BIT EAST - OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AS OF 15Z ANALYSIS.
ASIDE FROM SUNNY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE
ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO OFFICIALLY ADD IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NERN AL, LINING UP WITH ANY
OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED LIFT, AS WELL AS ANY CONVECTION UPSTREAM
CLIPPING OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY.

MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE INTO THE LOW 100S
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. THIS
THREAT IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO FOR TODAY, AND MOST LIKELY, AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PACKAGE
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR FOG AT KMSL THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH BRINGING A TASTE OF
SUMMER. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS AS WELL. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES TO JUST SHY OF
105...WILL HOLD OFF OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY UNTIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL COME AROUND THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
WERE MORE OF A DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AND
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE DRIER OUTCOME AS THE GFS DOES NOT RETROGRADE
THE RIDGE LIKE THE OTHERS DO. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK DOWN
STARTING MONDAY WHEN STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND EVEN FURTHER WHEN
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...LOWER 90S.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211503
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1003 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AT THIS HOUR, WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER 70S SPRINKLED
IN HERE AND THERE. TEMPS TODAY ARE ON TRACK (OR ARE A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER) THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS, WELL ON THE WAY
TO REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER SERN LA, WITH THE SFC REFLECTION
NOTED JUST A BIT EAST - OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AS OF 15Z ANALYSIS.
ASIDE FROM SUNNY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE
ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO OFFICIALLY ADD IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NERN AL, LINING UP WITH ANY
OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED LIFT, AS WELL AS ANY CONVECTION UPSTREAM
CLIPPING OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY.

MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE INTO THE LOW 100S
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. THIS
THREAT IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO FOR TODAY, AND MOST LIKELY, AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PACKAGE
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR FOG AT KMSL THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH BRINGING A TASTE OF
SUMMER. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS AS WELL. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES TO JUST SHY OF
105...WILL HOLD OFF OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY UNTIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL COME AROUND THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
WERE MORE OF A DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AND
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE DRIER OUTCOME AS THE GFS DOES NOT RETROGRADE
THE RIDGE LIKE THE OTHERS DO. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK DOWN
STARTING MONDAY WHEN STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND EVEN FURTHER WHEN
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...LOWER 90S.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211503
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1003 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AT THIS HOUR, WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER 70S SPRINKLED
IN HERE AND THERE. TEMPS TODAY ARE ON TRACK (OR ARE A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER) THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS, WELL ON THE WAY
TO REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER SERN LA, WITH THE SFC REFLECTION
NOTED JUST A BIT EAST - OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AS OF 15Z ANALYSIS.
ASIDE FROM SUNNY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE
ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO OFFICIALLY ADD IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NERN AL, LINING UP WITH ANY
OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED LIFT, AS WELL AS ANY CONVECTION UPSTREAM
CLIPPING OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY.

MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE INTO THE LOW 100S
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. THIS
THREAT IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO FOR TODAY, AND MOST LIKELY, AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PACKAGE
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR FOG AT KMSL THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH BRINGING A TASTE OF
SUMMER. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS AS WELL. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES TO JUST SHY OF
105...WILL HOLD OFF OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY UNTIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL COME AROUND THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
WERE MORE OF A DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AND
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE DRIER OUTCOME AS THE GFS DOES NOT RETROGRADE
THE RIDGE LIKE THE OTHERS DO. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK DOWN
STARTING MONDAY WHEN STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND EVEN FURTHER WHEN
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...LOWER 90S.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211503
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1003 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AT THIS HOUR, WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER 70S SPRINKLED
IN HERE AND THERE. TEMPS TODAY ARE ON TRACK (OR ARE A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER) THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS, WELL ON THE WAY
TO REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER SERN LA, WITH THE SFC REFLECTION
NOTED JUST A BIT EAST - OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AS OF 15Z ANALYSIS.
ASIDE FROM SUNNY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE
ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO OFFICIALLY ADD IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NERN AL, LINING UP WITH ANY
OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED LIFT, AS WELL AS ANY CONVECTION UPSTREAM
CLIPPING OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY.

MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE INTO THE LOW 100S
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. THIS
THREAT IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO FOR TODAY, AND MOST LIKELY, AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PACKAGE
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR FOG AT KMSL THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH BRINGING A TASTE OF
SUMMER. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS AS WELL. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES TO JUST SHY OF
105...WILL HOLD OFF OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY UNTIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL COME AROUND THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
WERE MORE OF A DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AND
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE DRIER OUTCOME AS THE GFS DOES NOT RETROGRADE
THE RIDGE LIKE THE OTHERS DO. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK DOWN
STARTING MONDAY WHEN STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND EVEN FURTHER WHEN
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...LOWER 90S.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 211146 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE RADAR IS ALL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER A FAIRLY EVENTFUL
EVENING YESTERDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE RADAR SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY QUIET TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY STARTS TO TAKE
CONTROL. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPS...IT COULD
PACK A PUNCH WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR STILL EXISTING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SO LOW TODAY...WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

WHAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO IS THE BUILDING HEAT TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE AREN`T PLANNING ON ISSUING A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY AT THIS TIME...1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE`LL CONTINUE
TO JUST HIGHLIGHT TODAY`S HEAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE THE DAYS OF MOST CONCERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...AS
TEMPS WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO PERHAPS 100 DEGREES
FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. EVEN IF WE`RE ABLE TO MIX DEW POINTS INTO
THE MID 60S WHICH WOULD LOWER THE HEAT INDEX BELOW 105
DEGREES...WE STILL COULD REACH 99 TO 100 DEGREES IN TERMS OF THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT
NOT REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WE`RE GOING TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A HEAT ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY WILL BE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
STARTING AT 11AM FRIDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE THE HOTTEST THAT WE`VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SUMMER...AND WITH LOTS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES GOING ON THIS
WEEKEND WE WANTED FOLKS TO MAKE SURE TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND TAKE
THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. WE`LL SEE IF WE BREAK THE STREAK OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 100 DEGREES...WHICH IS 780 DAYS FOR
BIRMINGHAM AND 751 DAYS FOR MONTGOMERY.

AFTER ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
WEAKEN JUST A BIT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA...AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN ALABAMA WILL STILL BE VERY HOT...AND WE MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY AT LEAST FOR COUNTIES WEST OF I-65 OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS WITH UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SPOTS WITH MVFR FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO
POSSIBLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE C AL TAFS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED HEAT INDUCED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS (IE...ANB)
PROBABILITY IS LOW AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF. EVEN
LESS CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH EVEN LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO WORK WITH TONIGHT AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES OVERALL.
OVERALL...THIS PACKAGE LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/MAYBE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS IN THE EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  71  97  72  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    96  71  97  73  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  97  74  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      96  73  97  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  98  75  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        97  72  98  73  98 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$

56/08





000
FXUS64 KBMX 211146 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE RADAR IS ALL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER A FAIRLY EVENTFUL
EVENING YESTERDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE RADAR SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY QUIET TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY STARTS TO TAKE
CONTROL. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPS...IT COULD
PACK A PUNCH WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR STILL EXISTING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SO LOW TODAY...WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

WHAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO IS THE BUILDING HEAT TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE AREN`T PLANNING ON ISSUING A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY AT THIS TIME...1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE`LL CONTINUE
TO JUST HIGHLIGHT TODAY`S HEAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE THE DAYS OF MOST CONCERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...AS
TEMPS WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO PERHAPS 100 DEGREES
FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. EVEN IF WE`RE ABLE TO MIX DEW POINTS INTO
THE MID 60S WHICH WOULD LOWER THE HEAT INDEX BELOW 105
DEGREES...WE STILL COULD REACH 99 TO 100 DEGREES IN TERMS OF THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT
NOT REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WE`RE GOING TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A HEAT ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY WILL BE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
STARTING AT 11AM FRIDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE THE HOTTEST THAT WE`VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SUMMER...AND WITH LOTS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES GOING ON THIS
WEEKEND WE WANTED FOLKS TO MAKE SURE TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND TAKE
THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. WE`LL SEE IF WE BREAK THE STREAK OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 100 DEGREES...WHICH IS 780 DAYS FOR
BIRMINGHAM AND 751 DAYS FOR MONTGOMERY.

AFTER ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
WEAKEN JUST A BIT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA...AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN ALABAMA WILL STILL BE VERY HOT...AND WE MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY AT LEAST FOR COUNTIES WEST OF I-65 OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS WITH UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SPOTS WITH MVFR FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO
POSSIBLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE C AL TAFS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED HEAT INDUCED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS (IE...ANB)
PROBABILITY IS LOW AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF. EVEN
LESS CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH EVEN LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO WORK WITH TONIGHT AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES OVERALL.
OVERALL...THIS PACKAGE LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/MAYBE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS IN THE EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  71  97  72  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    96  71  97  73  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  97  74  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      96  73  97  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  98  75  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        97  72  98  73  98 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$

56/08





000
FXUS64 KBMX 211146 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE RADAR IS ALL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER A FAIRLY EVENTFUL
EVENING YESTERDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE RADAR SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY QUIET TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY STARTS TO TAKE
CONTROL. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPS...IT COULD
PACK A PUNCH WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR STILL EXISTING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SO LOW TODAY...WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

WHAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO IS THE BUILDING HEAT TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE AREN`T PLANNING ON ISSUING A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY AT THIS TIME...1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE`LL CONTINUE
TO JUST HIGHLIGHT TODAY`S HEAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE THE DAYS OF MOST CONCERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...AS
TEMPS WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO PERHAPS 100 DEGREES
FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. EVEN IF WE`RE ABLE TO MIX DEW POINTS INTO
THE MID 60S WHICH WOULD LOWER THE HEAT INDEX BELOW 105
DEGREES...WE STILL COULD REACH 99 TO 100 DEGREES IN TERMS OF THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT
NOT REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WE`RE GOING TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A HEAT ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY WILL BE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
STARTING AT 11AM FRIDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE THE HOTTEST THAT WE`VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SUMMER...AND WITH LOTS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES GOING ON THIS
WEEKEND WE WANTED FOLKS TO MAKE SURE TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND TAKE
THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. WE`LL SEE IF WE BREAK THE STREAK OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 100 DEGREES...WHICH IS 780 DAYS FOR
BIRMINGHAM AND 751 DAYS FOR MONTGOMERY.

AFTER ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
WEAKEN JUST A BIT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA...AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN ALABAMA WILL STILL BE VERY HOT...AND WE MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY AT LEAST FOR COUNTIES WEST OF I-65 OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS WITH UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SPOTS WITH MVFR FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO
POSSIBLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE C AL TAFS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED HEAT INDUCED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS (IE...ANB)
PROBABILITY IS LOW AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF. EVEN
LESS CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH EVEN LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO WORK WITH TONIGHT AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES OVERALL.
OVERALL...THIS PACKAGE LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/MAYBE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS IN THE EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  71  97  72  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    96  71  97  73  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  97  74  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      96  73  97  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  98  75  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        97  72  98  73  98 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$

56/08





000
FXUS64 KBMX 211146 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE RADAR IS ALL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER A FAIRLY EVENTFUL
EVENING YESTERDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE RADAR SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY QUIET TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY STARTS TO TAKE
CONTROL. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPS...IT COULD
PACK A PUNCH WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR STILL EXISTING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SO LOW TODAY...WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

WHAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO IS THE BUILDING HEAT TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE AREN`T PLANNING ON ISSUING A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY AT THIS TIME...1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE`LL CONTINUE
TO JUST HIGHLIGHT TODAY`S HEAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE THE DAYS OF MOST CONCERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...AS
TEMPS WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO PERHAPS 100 DEGREES
FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. EVEN IF WE`RE ABLE TO MIX DEW POINTS INTO
THE MID 60S WHICH WOULD LOWER THE HEAT INDEX BELOW 105
DEGREES...WE STILL COULD REACH 99 TO 100 DEGREES IN TERMS OF THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT
NOT REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WE`RE GOING TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A HEAT ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY WILL BE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
STARTING AT 11AM FRIDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE THE HOTTEST THAT WE`VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SUMMER...AND WITH LOTS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES GOING ON THIS
WEEKEND WE WANTED FOLKS TO MAKE SURE TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND TAKE
THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. WE`LL SEE IF WE BREAK THE STREAK OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 100 DEGREES...WHICH IS 780 DAYS FOR
BIRMINGHAM AND 751 DAYS FOR MONTGOMERY.

AFTER ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
WEAKEN JUST A BIT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA...AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN ALABAMA WILL STILL BE VERY HOT...AND WE MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY AT LEAST FOR COUNTIES WEST OF I-65 OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS WITH UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SPOTS WITH MVFR FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO
POSSIBLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE C AL TAFS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED HEAT INDUCED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS (IE...ANB)
PROBABILITY IS LOW AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF. EVEN
LESS CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH EVEN LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO WORK WITH TONIGHT AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES OVERALL.
OVERALL...THIS PACKAGE LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/MAYBE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS IN THE EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  71  97  72  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    96  71  97  73  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  97  74  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      96  73  97  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  98  75  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        97  72  98  73  98 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$

56/08





000
FXUS64 KHUN 211126
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH BRINGING A TASTE OF
SUMMER. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS AS WELL. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES TO JUST SHY OF
105...WILL HOLD OFF OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY UNTIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL COME AROUND THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
WERE MORE OF A DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AND
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE DRIER OUTCOME AS THE GFS DOES NOT RETROGRADE
THE RIDGE LIKE THE OTHERS DO. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK DOWN
STARTING MONDAY WHEN STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND EVEN FURTHER WHEN
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...LOWER 90S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR FOG AT KMSL THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 211126
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH BRINGING A TASTE OF
SUMMER. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS AS WELL. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES TO JUST SHY OF
105...WILL HOLD OFF OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY UNTIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL COME AROUND THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
WERE MORE OF A DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AND
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE DRIER OUTCOME AS THE GFS DOES NOT RETROGRADE
THE RIDGE LIKE THE OTHERS DO. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK DOWN
STARTING MONDAY WHEN STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND EVEN FURTHER WHEN
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...LOWER 90S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR FOG AT KMSL THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211031
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
531 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH BRINGING A TASTE OF
SUMMER. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS AS WELL. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES TO JUST SHY OF
105...WILL HOLD OFF OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY UNTIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL COME AROUND THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
WERE MORE OF A DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AND
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE DRIER OUTCOME AS THE GFS DOES NOT RETROGRADE
THE RIDGE LIKE THE OTHERS DO. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK DOWN
STARTING MONDAY WHEN STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND EVEN FURTHER WHEN
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...LOWER 90S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE BTWN 10-13Z WHICH MAY RESULT IN A DROP TO
MVFR AT BOTH TAF LOCATIONS. LOWER CATS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE OVER NE
AL/S MIDDLE TN (NEAR K4A6, K4A9, KFYM, KBGF) UNTIL 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    95  72  95  74 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        96  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      96  76  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  93  72  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   96  73  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    95  73  95  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211031
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
531 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH BRINGING A TASTE OF
SUMMER. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS AS WELL. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES TO JUST SHY OF
105...WILL HOLD OFF OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY UNTIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL COME AROUND THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
WERE MORE OF A DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AND
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE DRIER OUTCOME AS THE GFS DOES NOT RETROGRADE
THE RIDGE LIKE THE OTHERS DO. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK DOWN
STARTING MONDAY WHEN STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND EVEN FURTHER WHEN
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...LOWER 90S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE BTWN 10-13Z WHICH MAY RESULT IN A DROP TO
MVFR AT BOTH TAF LOCATIONS. LOWER CATS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE OVER NE
AL/S MIDDLE TN (NEAR K4A6, K4A9, KFYM, KBGF) UNTIL 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    95  72  95  74 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        96  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      96  76  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  93  72  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   96  73  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    95  73  95  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 211011
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
511 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE RADAR IS ALL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER A FAIRLY EVENTFUL
EVENING YESTERDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE RADAR SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY QUIET TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY STARTS TO TAKE
CONTROL. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPS...IT COULD
PACK A PUNCH WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR STILL EXISTING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SO LOW TODAY...WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

WHAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO IS THE BUILDING HEAT TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE AREN`T PLANNING ON ISSUING A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY AT THIS TIME...1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE`LL CONTINUE
TO JUST HIGHLIGHT TODAY`S HEAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE THE DAYS OF MOST CONCERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...AS
TEMPS WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO PERHAPS 100 DEGREES
FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. EVEN IF WE`RE ABLE TO MIX DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID 60S WHICH WOULD LOWER THE HEAT INDEX BELOW 105
DEGREES...WE STILL COULD REACH 99 TO 100 DEGREES IN TERMS OF THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT
NOT REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WE`RE GOING TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A HEAT ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY WILL BE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
STARTING AT 11AM FRIDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE THE HOTTEST THAT WE`VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SUMMER...AND WITH LOTS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES GOING ON THIS
WEEKEND WE WANTED FOLKS TO MAKE SURE TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND TAKE
THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. WE`LL SEE IF WE BREAK THE STREAK OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 100 DEGREES...WHICH IS 780 DAYS FOR
BIRMINGHAM AND 751 DAYS FOR MONTGOMERY.

AFTER ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
WEAKEN JUST A BIT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA...AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN ALABAMA WILL STILL BE VERY HOT...AND WE MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY AT LEAST FOR COUNTIES WEST OF I-65 OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS WITH UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN JUST ABOUT GONE FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT...AND THAT
SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WE ONCE
AGAIN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBILITIES. THE
WATER NEAR THE FIELD AT TCL SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG THERE.
ANB GOT SOME DECENT RAIN AFTER DARK...AND THERE`S A CHANCE THAT
COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG AS WELL. OTHER LOCATIONS ARE STILL
REPORTING 10SM VISIBILITY...WITH FOG FORMATION LESS LIKELY.

BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT A MINIMUM THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  71  97  72  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    96  71  97  73  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  97  74  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      96  73  97  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  98  75  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        97  72  98  73  98 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 211011
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
511 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE RADAR IS ALL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER A FAIRLY EVENTFUL
EVENING YESTERDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE RADAR SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY QUIET TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY STARTS TO TAKE
CONTROL. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPS...IT COULD
PACK A PUNCH WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR STILL EXISTING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SO LOW TODAY...WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

WHAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO IS THE BUILDING HEAT TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE AREN`T PLANNING ON ISSUING A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY AT THIS TIME...1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE`LL CONTINUE
TO JUST HIGHLIGHT TODAY`S HEAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE THE DAYS OF MOST CONCERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...AS
TEMPS WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO PERHAPS 100 DEGREES
FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. EVEN IF WE`RE ABLE TO MIX DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID 60S WHICH WOULD LOWER THE HEAT INDEX BELOW 105
DEGREES...WE STILL COULD REACH 99 TO 100 DEGREES IN TERMS OF THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT
NOT REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WE`RE GOING TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A HEAT ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY WILL BE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
STARTING AT 11AM FRIDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE THE HOTTEST THAT WE`VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SUMMER...AND WITH LOTS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES GOING ON THIS
WEEKEND WE WANTED FOLKS TO MAKE SURE TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND TAKE
THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. WE`LL SEE IF WE BREAK THE STREAK OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 100 DEGREES...WHICH IS 780 DAYS FOR
BIRMINGHAM AND 751 DAYS FOR MONTGOMERY.

AFTER ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
WEAKEN JUST A BIT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA...AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN ALABAMA WILL STILL BE VERY HOT...AND WE MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY AT LEAST FOR COUNTIES WEST OF I-65 OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS WITH UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN JUST ABOUT GONE FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT...AND THAT
SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WE ONCE
AGAIN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBILITIES. THE
WATER NEAR THE FIELD AT TCL SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG THERE.
ANB GOT SOME DECENT RAIN AFTER DARK...AND THERE`S A CHANCE THAT
COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG AS WELL. OTHER LOCATIONS ARE STILL
REPORTING 10SM VISIBILITY...WITH FOG FORMATION LESS LIKELY.

BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT A MINIMUM THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  71  97  72  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    96  71  97  73  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  97  74  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      96  73  97  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  98  75  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        97  72  98  73  98 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 210959
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
459 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A WEAK
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY FORMING NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COVERAGE WILL BE
MOSTLY ISOLATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...MUCAPES UP 3400 J/KG...A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SFC DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM THE 104 TO 107 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH THESE
VALUES ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MENTIONING THESE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS IN
AGREEMENT WITH CENTERING THE ~594 DM HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
FACTOR IN AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST...AND HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS
110. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
BY FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE VERY CLOSE TO OUR LOCAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 108 DEGREES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING
HEAT INDICES IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND LOCAL GRAPHICS...AND LET NEXT SHIFTS MAKE AN ASSESSMENT
ON THE PLACEMENT/NECESSITY OF A HEAT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAINLY LOCATED ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND OR PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. /21

&&

.AVIATION [21.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
22.12Z. COULD SEE LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FORMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH ABOUT 22.00Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE
WEEK. LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES...THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN AND LOWER GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  75  97  75  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  77  96  79  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      92  79  94  80  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   97  72  99  73  99 /  20  05  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  97  74  98  73  99 /  10  05  10  10  10
CAMDEN      98  73  98  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   97  72  99  74  99 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KMOB 210959
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
459 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A WEAK
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY FORMING NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COVERAGE WILL BE
MOSTLY ISOLATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...MUCAPES UP 3400 J/KG...A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SFC DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM THE 104 TO 107 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH THESE
VALUES ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MENTIONING THESE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS IN
AGREEMENT WITH CENTERING THE ~594 DM HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
FACTOR IN AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST...AND HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS
110. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
BY FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE VERY CLOSE TO OUR LOCAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 108 DEGREES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING
HEAT INDICES IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND LOCAL GRAPHICS...AND LET NEXT SHIFTS MAKE AN ASSESSMENT
ON THE PLACEMENT/NECESSITY OF A HEAT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAINLY LOCATED ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND OR PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. /21

&&

.AVIATION [21.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
22.12Z. COULD SEE LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FORMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH ABOUT 22.00Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE
WEEK. LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES...THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN AND LOWER GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  75  97  75  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  77  96  79  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      92  79  94  80  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   97  72  99  73  99 /  20  05  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  97  74  98  73  99 /  10  05  10  10  10
CAMDEN      98  73  98  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   97  72  99  74  99 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21





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