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000
FXUS64 KMOB 312023
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
323 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
AL WILL POSSIBLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM BUTLER TO ANDALUSIA IN AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH WED. THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
WHICH DRIFTS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. WITH STEEP LAPSE IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES MOSTLY BELOW 9.5KFT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. LATEST WV
LOOPS ALSO SHOW THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING SE OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY... PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
MS AND AL LATE WED INTO THU...RESULTING IN BETTER LIFT OR MID LEVEL
FORCING IN ADVANCED OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE CWFA SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SFC
TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH WED AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUINDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO UPEER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST. HIGHS ON
WED WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES OVERALL WILL BE
LOW...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER WELL INLAND LOCATIONS. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST/TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE
SOLUTIONS. THE SREF MEAN IS A LITTLE FASTER...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER IN THE
EVENING. THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THEY MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
COASTAL AREAS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF SATURDAY IS
LOOKING DRY AND COOLER. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL CARRY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA...SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER SE MS ON
SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING RAIN FREE AS THE MID LEVELS
REMAIN DRY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WEAK TO MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL FEATURE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW MONDAY WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO
BUILD IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
WILL HINGE ON FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH ARE
VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
31.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 01.06Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TO
LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 01.13Z THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR TO
VFR CIGS THROUGH 01.18Z. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOSTLY OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF AL AND MS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...LATER THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THOUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING SHIFTING WEST DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WED THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHER WIND GUST WILL BE LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY ON WED. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
FRI DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD
ON WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY GOOD TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ON THURSDAY.
DISPERSION VALUES COULD REACH 75 TO 80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  82  61  81  62 /  10  10  10  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  80  61  80  63 /  10  10  10  10  05
DESTIN      67  77  63  75  65 /  10  20  10  10  05
EVERGREEN   60  84  56  83  57 /  20  30  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  59  82  60  83  63 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      60  83  57  83  59 /  30  40  20  20  05
CRESTVIEW   60  83  55  83  54 /  10  20  10  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 312023
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
323 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
AL WILL POSSIBLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM BUTLER TO ANDALUSIA IN AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH WED. THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
WHICH DRIFTS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. WITH STEEP LAPSE IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES MOSTLY BELOW 9.5KFT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. LATEST WV
LOOPS ALSO SHOW THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING SE OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY... PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
MS AND AL LATE WED INTO THU...RESULTING IN BETTER LIFT OR MID LEVEL
FORCING IN ADVANCED OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE CWFA SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SFC
TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH WED AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUINDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO UPEER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST. HIGHS ON
WED WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES OVERALL WILL BE
LOW...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER WELL INLAND LOCATIONS. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST/TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE
SOLUTIONS. THE SREF MEAN IS A LITTLE FASTER...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER IN THE
EVENING. THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THEY MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
COASTAL AREAS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF SATURDAY IS
LOOKING DRY AND COOLER. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL CARRY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA...SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER SE MS ON
SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING RAIN FREE AS THE MID LEVELS
REMAIN DRY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WEAK TO MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL FEATURE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW MONDAY WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO
BUILD IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
WILL HINGE ON FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH ARE
VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
31.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 01.06Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TO
LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 01.13Z THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR TO
VFR CIGS THROUGH 01.18Z. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOSTLY OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF AL AND MS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...LATER THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THOUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING SHIFTING WEST DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WED THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHER WIND GUST WILL BE LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY ON WED. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
FRI DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD
ON WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY GOOD TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ON THURSDAY.
DISPERSION VALUES COULD REACH 75 TO 80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  82  61  81  62 /  10  10  10  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  80  61  80  63 /  10  10  10  10  05
DESTIN      67  77  63  75  65 /  10  20  10  10  05
EVERGREEN   60  84  56  83  57 /  20  30  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  59  82  60  83  63 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      60  83  57  83  59 /  30  40  20  20  05
CRESTVIEW   60  83  55  83  54 /  10  20  10  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 312015
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  78  58  78 /  40  20  30  50
SHOALS        50  78  59  80 /  40  20  30  50
VINEMONT      51  76  58  75 /  50  20  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  47  73  56  74 /  40  20  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   51  76  58  74 /  40  20  30  50
FORT PAYNE    48  74  56  73 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 312015
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  78  58  78 /  40  20  30  50
SHOALS        50  78  59  80 /  40  20  30  50
VINEMONT      51  76  58  75 /  50  20  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  47  73  56  74 /  40  20  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   51  76  58  74 /  40  20  30  50
FORT PAYNE    48  74  56  73 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 312015
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  78  58  78 /  40  20  30  50
SHOALS        50  78  59  80 /  40  20  30  50
VINEMONT      51  76  58  75 /  50  20  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  47  73  56  74 /  40  20  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   51  76  58  74 /  40  20  30  50
FORT PAYNE    48  74  56  73 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 312015
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  78  58  78 /  40  20  30  50
SHOALS        50  78  59  80 /  40  20  30  50
VINEMONT      51  76  58  75 /  50  20  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  47  73  56  74 /  40  20  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   51  76  58  74 /  40  20  30  50
FORT PAYNE    48  74  56  73 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 312015
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  78  58  78 /  40  20  30  50
SHOALS        50  78  59  80 /  40  20  30  50
VINEMONT      51  76  58  75 /  50  20  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  47  73  56  74 /  40  20  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   51  76  58  74 /  40  20  30  50
FORT PAYNE    48  74  56  73 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 312015
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  78  58  78 /  40  20  30  50
SHOALS        50  78  59  80 /  40  20  30  50
VINEMONT      51  76  58  75 /  50  20  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  47  73  56  74 /  40  20  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   51  76  58  74 /  40  20  30  50
FORT PAYNE    48  74  56  73 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 311817 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
117 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...LATEST TRENDS MAINLY FOR EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL PARTS OF AL POSSIBLE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE STRETCHING FROM BUTLER TO ANDALUSIA IN AL. THESE AREA TO THE
NORTH ARE ALSO UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FURTHER TO THE OVER CENTRAL
PART OF THE AL. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL STILL LOOK
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WIT THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELLTO
THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...31.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 01.06Z
FOLLOWED BY IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 01.13Z THEN
IMPROVING TO MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH 01.18Z. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF AL AND MS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP UPON LATER
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THOUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING SHIFTING WEST DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WED THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHER WINDS GUST WILL BE LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRI DUE
TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  60  82  61  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   79  62  80  61  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      75  64  76  63  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   84  59  84  56  83 /  20  20  20  20  10
WAYNESBORO  82  58  83  60  83 /  10  20  20  20  20
CAMDEN      82  58  84  57  83 /  30  30  30  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  82  55  83 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 311817 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
117 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...LATEST TRENDS MAINLY FOR EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL PARTS OF AL POSSIBLE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE STRETCHING FROM BUTLER TO ANDALUSIA IN AL. THESE AREA TO THE
NORTH ARE ALSO UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FURTHER TO THE OVER CENTRAL
PART OF THE AL. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL STILL LOOK
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WIT THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELLTO
THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...31.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 01.06Z
FOLLOWED BY IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 01.13Z THEN
IMPROVING TO MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH 01.18Z. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF AL AND MS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP UPON LATER
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THOUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING SHIFTING WEST DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WED THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHER WINDS GUST WILL BE LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRI DUE
TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  60  82  61  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   79  62  80  61  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      75  64  76  63  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   84  59  84  56  83 /  20  20  20  20  10
WAYNESBORO  82  58  83  60  83 /  10  20  20  20  20
CAMDEN      82  58  84  57  83 /  30  30  30  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  82  55  83 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 311746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA TO AUBURN.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE MORE MARITIME AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB WITH VERY COLD AIR FROM 700MB AND
ABOVE. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 8-8.5 CELSIUS
RANGE...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL. THE WARM
NOSE WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE ERODING BY 17Z...WITH FORECAST
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-1800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE IMPULSE MAY
TRIGGER AN UPSTREAM MCS THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ALREADY RAISED THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO SLIGHT RISK...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH OF BHM AND EET...APCHG ASN AND
ANB. BNDRY WILL ACT AS TRIGGER/FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. TIMING OF
CONVECTION IS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME...AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS
TIMING AND WILL ADJUST AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. MGM/TOI MAY SEE A
FEW VCSH...HOWEVER MAIN ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH. CIGS OUTSIDE
OF TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...WITH TYPICAL REDUCTIONS DURING ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY AT/NEAR TAF SITES. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GOOD CHANCE OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN AT MGM LATE TONIGHT...UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  75  56  77  60 /  40  30  30  40  30
ANNISTON    51  76  57  78  60 /  40  30  30  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  54  78  59  80  62 /  40  40  30  40  20
TUSCALOOSA  58  79  60  82  63 /  30  40  30  40  10
CALERA      57  78  59  80  62 /  30  40  30  40  10
AUBURN      56  78  58  79  60 /  40  40  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  59  80  60  83  61 /  40  40  30  20  10
TROY        60  80  59  82  59 /  40  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA TO AUBURN.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE MORE MARITIME AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB WITH VERY COLD AIR FROM 700MB AND
ABOVE. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 8-8.5 CELSIUS
RANGE...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL. THE WARM
NOSE WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE ERODING BY 17Z...WITH FORECAST
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-1800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE IMPULSE MAY
TRIGGER AN UPSTREAM MCS THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ALREADY RAISED THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO SLIGHT RISK...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH OF BHM AND EET...APCHG ASN AND
ANB. BNDRY WILL ACT AS TRIGGER/FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. TIMING OF
CONVECTION IS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME...AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS
TIMING AND WILL ADJUST AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. MGM/TOI MAY SEE A
FEW VCSH...HOWEVER MAIN ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH. CIGS OUTSIDE
OF TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...WITH TYPICAL REDUCTIONS DURING ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY AT/NEAR TAF SITES. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GOOD CHANCE OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN AT MGM LATE TONIGHT...UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  75  56  77  60 /  40  30  30  40  30
ANNISTON    51  76  57  78  60 /  40  30  30  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  54  78  59  80  62 /  40  40  30  40  20
TUSCALOOSA  58  79  60  82  63 /  30  40  30  40  10
CALERA      57  78  59  80  62 /  30  40  30  40  10
AUBURN      56  78  58  79  60 /  40  40  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  59  80  60  83  61 /  40  40  30  20  10
TROY        60  80  59  82  59 /  40  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA TO AUBURN.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE MORE MARITIME AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB WITH VERY COLD AIR FROM 700MB AND
ABOVE. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 8-8.5 CELSIUS
RANGE...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL. THE WARM
NOSE WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE ERODING BY 17Z...WITH FORECAST
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-1800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE IMPULSE MAY
TRIGGER AN UPSTREAM MCS THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ALREADY RAISED THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO SLIGHT RISK...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH OF BHM AND EET...APCHG ASN AND
ANB. BNDRY WILL ACT AS TRIGGER/FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. TIMING OF
CONVECTION IS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME...AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS
TIMING AND WILL ADJUST AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. MGM/TOI MAY SEE A
FEW VCSH...HOWEVER MAIN ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH. CIGS OUTSIDE
OF TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...WITH TYPICAL REDUCTIONS DURING ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY AT/NEAR TAF SITES. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GOOD CHANCE OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN AT MGM LATE TONIGHT...UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  75  56  77  60 /  40  30  30  40  30
ANNISTON    51  76  57  78  60 /  40  30  30  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  54  78  59  80  62 /  40  40  30  40  20
TUSCALOOSA  58  79  60  82  63 /  30  40  30  40  10
CALERA      57  78  59  80  62 /  30  40  30  40  10
AUBURN      56  78  58  79  60 /  40  40  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  59  80  60  83  61 /  40  40  30  20  10
TROY        60  80  59  82  59 /  40  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 311746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA TO AUBURN.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE MORE MARITIME AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB WITH VERY COLD AIR FROM 700MB AND
ABOVE. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 8-8.5 CELSIUS
RANGE...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL. THE WARM
NOSE WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE ERODING BY 17Z...WITH FORECAST
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-1800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE IMPULSE MAY
TRIGGER AN UPSTREAM MCS THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ALREADY RAISED THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO SLIGHT RISK...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH OF BHM AND EET...APCHG ASN AND
ANB. BNDRY WILL ACT AS TRIGGER/FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. TIMING OF
CONVECTION IS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME...AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS
TIMING AND WILL ADJUST AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. MGM/TOI MAY SEE A
FEW VCSH...HOWEVER MAIN ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH. CIGS OUTSIDE
OF TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...WITH TYPICAL REDUCTIONS DURING ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY AT/NEAR TAF SITES. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GOOD CHANCE OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN AT MGM LATE TONIGHT...UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  75  56  77  60 /  40  30  30  40  30
ANNISTON    51  76  57  78  60 /  40  30  30  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  54  78  59  80  62 /  40  40  30  40  20
TUSCALOOSA  58  79  60  82  63 /  30  40  30  40  10
CALERA      57  78  59  80  62 /  30  40  30  40  10
AUBURN      56  78  58  79  60 /  40  40  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  59  80  60  83  61 /  40  40  30  20  10
TROY        60  80  59  82  59 /  40  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311707 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.


AK

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311707 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.


AK

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311707 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.


AK

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311707 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.


AK

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311707 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.


AK

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311707 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.


AK

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311525 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...PREDOM CLR SKIES/VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
ATTM...BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN/NEAR HEAVIER
TSRA...WHERE BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311525 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...PREDOM CLR SKIES/VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
ATTM...BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN/NEAR HEAVIER
TSRA...WHERE BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 311445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
945 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA TO AUBURN.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE MORE MARITIME AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB WITH VERY COLD AIR FROM 700MB AND
ABOVE. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 8-8.5 CELSIUS
RANGE...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL. THE WARM
NOSE WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE ERODING BY 17Z...WITH FORECAST
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-1800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE IMPULSE MAY
TRIGGER AN UPSTREAM MCS THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ALREADY RAISED THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO SLIGHT RISK...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DENSE FOG HAS CREPT UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO TOI EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK IN AND HELP SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MID-MORNING. BUT FORECASTING THEIR EXTENT AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC. I WENT WITH MVFR...BUT
COULD SEE IT (AT LEAST BRIEFLY) A BIT LOWER IN SPOTS. WE ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH WOULD (PRESUMEABLY) EVENTUALLY GET INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD HAD ALREADY
STARTED FORMING BY 12Z -- THAT APPEARS TO NOT QUITE BE THE CASE.
IF THAT REMAINS TO NOT BE THE CASE...THEN WE WILL NEED TO AMEND TO
REMOVE OR DELAY TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  50  75  56  77 /  60  40  30  30  40
ANNISTON    74  51  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  54  78  59  80 /  70  40  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  77  58  79  60  82 /  70  30  40  30  40
CALERA      76  57  78  59  80 /  70  30  40  30  40
AUBURN      75  56  78  58  79 /  60  40  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  82  59  80  60  83 /  60  40  40  30  20
TROY        81  60  80  59  82 /  50  40  50  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
945 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA TO AUBURN.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE MORE MARITIME AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB WITH VERY COLD AIR FROM 700MB AND
ABOVE. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 8-8.5 CELSIUS
RANGE...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL. THE WARM
NOSE WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE ERODING BY 17Z...WITH FORECAST
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-1800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE IMPULSE MAY
TRIGGER AN UPSTREAM MCS THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ALREADY RAISED THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO SLIGHT RISK...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DENSE FOG HAS CREPT UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO TOI EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK IN AND HELP SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MID-MORNING. BUT FORECASTING THEIR EXTENT AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC. I WENT WITH MVFR...BUT
COULD SEE IT (AT LEAST BRIEFLY) A BIT LOWER IN SPOTS. WE ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH WOULD (PRESUMEABLY) EVENTUALLY GET INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD HAD ALREADY
STARTED FORMING BY 12Z -- THAT APPEARS TO NOT QUITE BE THE CASE.
IF THAT REMAINS TO NOT BE THE CASE...THEN WE WILL NEED TO AMEND TO
REMOVE OR DELAY TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  50  75  56  77 /  60  40  30  30  40
ANNISTON    74  51  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  54  78  59  80 /  70  40  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  77  58  79  60  82 /  70  30  40  30  40
CALERA      76  57  78  59  80 /  70  30  40  30  40
AUBURN      75  56  78  58  79 /  60  40  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  82  59  80  60  83 /  60  40  40  30  20
TROY        81  60  80  59  82 /  50  40  50  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
945 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA TO AUBURN.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE MORE MARITIME AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB WITH VERY COLD AIR FROM 700MB AND
ABOVE. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 8-8.5 CELSIUS
RANGE...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL. THE WARM
NOSE WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE ERODING BY 17Z...WITH FORECAST
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-1800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE IMPULSE MAY
TRIGGER AN UPSTREAM MCS THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ALREADY RAISED THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO SLIGHT RISK...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DENSE FOG HAS CREPT UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO TOI EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK IN AND HELP SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MID-MORNING. BUT FORECASTING THEIR EXTENT AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC. I WENT WITH MVFR...BUT
COULD SEE IT (AT LEAST BRIEFLY) A BIT LOWER IN SPOTS. WE ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH WOULD (PRESUMEABLY) EVENTUALLY GET INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD HAD ALREADY
STARTED FORMING BY 12Z -- THAT APPEARS TO NOT QUITE BE THE CASE.
IF THAT REMAINS TO NOT BE THE CASE...THEN WE WILL NEED TO AMEND TO
REMOVE OR DELAY TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  50  75  56  77 /  60  40  30  30  40
ANNISTON    74  51  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  54  78  59  80 /  70  40  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  77  58  79  60  82 /  70  30  40  30  40
CALERA      76  57  78  59  80 /  70  30  40  30  40
AUBURN      75  56  78  58  79 /  60  40  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  82  59  80  60  83 /  60  40  40  30  20
TROY        81  60  80  59  82 /  50  40  50  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
945 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA TO AUBURN.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE MORE MARITIME AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB WITH VERY COLD AIR FROM 700MB AND
ABOVE. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 8-8.5 CELSIUS
RANGE...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL. THE WARM
NOSE WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE ERODING BY 17Z...WITH FORECAST
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-1800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE IMPULSE MAY
TRIGGER AN UPSTREAM MCS THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ALREADY RAISED THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO SLIGHT RISK...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DENSE FOG HAS CREPT UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO TOI EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK IN AND HELP SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MID-MORNING. BUT FORECASTING THEIR EXTENT AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC. I WENT WITH MVFR...BUT
COULD SEE IT (AT LEAST BRIEFLY) A BIT LOWER IN SPOTS. WE ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH WOULD (PRESUMEABLY) EVENTUALLY GET INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD HAD ALREADY
STARTED FORMING BY 12Z -- THAT APPEARS TO NOT QUITE BE THE CASE.
IF THAT REMAINS TO NOT BE THE CASE...THEN WE WILL NEED TO AMEND TO
REMOVE OR DELAY TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  50  75  56  77 /  60  40  30  30  40
ANNISTON    74  51  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  54  78  59  80 /  70  40  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  77  58  79  60  82 /  70  30  40  30  40
CALERA      76  57  78  59  80 /  70  30  40  30  40
AUBURN      75  56  78  58  79 /  60  40  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  82  59  80  60  83 /  60  40  40  30  20
TROY        81  60  80  59  82 /  50  40  50  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
945 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA TO AUBURN.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE MORE MARITIME AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB WITH VERY COLD AIR FROM 700MB AND
ABOVE. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 8-8.5 CELSIUS
RANGE...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL. THE WARM
NOSE WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE ERODING BY 17Z...WITH FORECAST
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-1800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE IMPULSE MAY
TRIGGER AN UPSTREAM MCS THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ALREADY RAISED THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO SLIGHT RISK...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DENSE FOG HAS CREPT UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO TOI EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK IN AND HELP SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MID-MORNING. BUT FORECASTING THEIR EXTENT AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC. I WENT WITH MVFR...BUT
COULD SEE IT (AT LEAST BRIEFLY) A BIT LOWER IN SPOTS. WE ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH WOULD (PRESUMEABLY) EVENTUALLY GET INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD HAD ALREADY
STARTED FORMING BY 12Z -- THAT APPEARS TO NOT QUITE BE THE CASE.
IF THAT REMAINS TO NOT BE THE CASE...THEN WE WILL NEED TO AMEND TO
REMOVE OR DELAY TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  50  75  56  77 /  60  40  30  30  40
ANNISTON    74  51  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  54  78  59  80 /  70  40  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  77  58  79  60  82 /  70  30  40  30  40
CALERA      76  57  78  59  80 /  70  30  40  30  40
AUBURN      75  56  78  58  79 /  60  40  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  82  59  80  60  83 /  60  40  40  30  20
TROY        81  60  80  59  82 /  50  40  50  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 311149 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  60  82  61  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   79  62  80  61  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      75  64  76  63  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   84  59  84  56  83 /  20  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  82  58  83  60  83 /  10  20  20  10  20
CAMDEN      82  58  84  57  83 /  30  30  30  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  82  53  83 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUTLER-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 311149 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  60  82  61  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   79  62  80  61  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      75  64  76  63  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   84  59  84  56  83 /  20  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  82  58  83  60  83 /  10  20  20  10  20
CAMDEN      82  58  84  57  83 /  30  30  30  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  82  53  83 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUTLER-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 311149 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  60  82  61  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   79  62  80  61  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      75  64  76  63  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   84  59  84  56  83 /  20  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  82  58  83  60  83 /  10  20  20  10  20
CAMDEN      82  58  84  57  83 /  30  30  30  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  82  53  83 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUTLER-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 311149 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  60  82  61  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   79  62  80  61  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      75  64  76  63  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   84  59  84  56  83 /  20  20  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  82  58  83  60  83 /  10  20  20  10  20
CAMDEN      82  58  84  57  83 /  30  30  30  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  82  53  83 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUTLER-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311139
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN
DAYS.

WILL ADD A SMALL MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH
8 OR 9 PM. THIS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE HEART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE THREAT WILL BE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS. A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT AND NOT REALLY MOVE TOO FAR. MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REACH 35-40KTS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING UPWARD MOTION...DECENT LAPSE RATES
EXISTS...AND WE ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT
UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING IS A BIT LACKING...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...NOT AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND BULK SHEAR IS MUCH LOWER...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. AS WE HEAT
UP...INSTABILITY FORMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESSER WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS....WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL THAT FAR
AWAY. BUT THINGS ARE TRENDING TOWARD HAVING SOME SEVERE STORMS AT
LEAST POSSIBLE. THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
MOVE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA AROUND MAXIMUM HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH HIGHER BULK SHEAR/INCREASED WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR THE MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN SOME MODERATION TAKES PLACE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME THAT WILL BARE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DENSE FOG HAS CREPT UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO TOI EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK IN AND HELP SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MID-MORNING. BUT FORECASTING THEIR EXTENT AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC. I WENT WITH MVFR...BUT
COULD SEE IT (AT LEAST BRIEFLY) A BIT LOWER IN SPOTS. WE ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH WOULD (PRESUMEABLY) EVENTUALLY GET INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD HAD ALREADY
STARTED FORMING BY 12Z -- THAT APPEARS TO NOT QUITE BE THE CASE.
IF THAT REMAINS TO NOT BE THE CASE...THEN WE WILL NEED TO AMEND TO
REMOVE OR DELAY TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARBOUR-
BULLOCK-MACON-PIKE-RUSSELL.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311139
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN
DAYS.

WILL ADD A SMALL MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH
8 OR 9 PM. THIS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE HEART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE THREAT WILL BE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS. A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT AND NOT REALLY MOVE TOO FAR. MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REACH 35-40KTS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING UPWARD MOTION...DECENT LAPSE RATES
EXISTS...AND WE ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT
UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING IS A BIT LACKING...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...NOT AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND BULK SHEAR IS MUCH LOWER...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. AS WE HEAT
UP...INSTABILITY FORMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESSER WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS....WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL THAT FAR
AWAY. BUT THINGS ARE TRENDING TOWARD HAVING SOME SEVERE STORMS AT
LEAST POSSIBLE. THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
MOVE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA AROUND MAXIMUM HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH HIGHER BULK SHEAR/INCREASED WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR THE MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN SOME MODERATION TAKES PLACE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME THAT WILL BARE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DENSE FOG HAS CREPT UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO TOI EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK IN AND HELP SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MID-MORNING. BUT FORECASTING THEIR EXTENT AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC. I WENT WITH MVFR...BUT
COULD SEE IT (AT LEAST BRIEFLY) A BIT LOWER IN SPOTS. WE ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH WOULD (PRESUMEABLY) EVENTUALLY GET INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD HAD ALREADY
STARTED FORMING BY 12Z -- THAT APPEARS TO NOT QUITE BE THE CASE.
IF THAT REMAINS TO NOT BE THE CASE...THEN WE WILL NEED TO AMEND TO
REMOVE OR DELAY TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARBOUR-
BULLOCK-MACON-PIKE-RUSSELL.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 311139
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN
DAYS.

WILL ADD A SMALL MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH
8 OR 9 PM. THIS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE HEART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE THREAT WILL BE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS. A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT AND NOT REALLY MOVE TOO FAR. MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REACH 35-40KTS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING UPWARD MOTION...DECENT LAPSE RATES
EXISTS...AND WE ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT
UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING IS A BIT LACKING...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...NOT AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND BULK SHEAR IS MUCH LOWER...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. AS WE HEAT
UP...INSTABILITY FORMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESSER WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS....WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL THAT FAR
AWAY. BUT THINGS ARE TRENDING TOWARD HAVING SOME SEVERE STORMS AT
LEAST POSSIBLE. THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
MOVE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA AROUND MAXIMUM HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH HIGHER BULK SHEAR/INCREASED WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR THE MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN SOME MODERATION TAKES PLACE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME THAT WILL BARE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DENSE FOG HAS CREPT UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO TOI EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK IN AND HELP SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MID-MORNING. BUT FORECASTING THEIR EXTENT AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC. I WENT WITH MVFR...BUT
COULD SEE IT (AT LEAST BRIEFLY) A BIT LOWER IN SPOTS. WE ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH WOULD (PRESUMEABLY) EVENTUALLY GET INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD HAD ALREADY
STARTED FORMING BY 12Z -- THAT APPEARS TO NOT QUITE BE THE CASE.
IF THAT REMAINS TO NOT BE THE CASE...THEN WE WILL NEED TO AMEND TO
REMOVE OR DELAY TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARBOUR-
BULLOCK-MACON-PIKE-RUSSELL.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...PREDOM CLR SKIES/VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
ATTM...BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN/NEAR HEAVIER
TSRA...WHERE BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...PREDOM CLR SKIES/VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
ATTM...BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN/NEAR HEAVIER
TSRA...WHERE BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...PREDOM CLR SKIES/VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
ATTM...BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN/NEAR HEAVIER
TSRA...WHERE BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...PREDOM CLR SKIES/VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
ATTM...BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN/NEAR HEAVIER
TSRA...WHERE BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 310944
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
444 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN
DAYS.

WILL ADD A SMALL MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH
8 OR 9 PM. THIS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE HEART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE THREAT WILL BE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS. A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT AND NOT REALLY MOVE TOO FAR. MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REACH 35-40KTS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING UPWARD MOTION...DECENT LAPSE RATES
EXISTS...AND WE ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT
UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING IS A BIT LACKING...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...NOT AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND BULK SHEAR IS MUCH LOWER...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. AS WE HEAT
UP...INSTABILITY FORMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESSER WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS....WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL THAT FAR
AWAY. BUT THINGS ARE TRENDING TOWARD HAVING SOME SEVERE STORMS AT
LEAST POSSIBLE. THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
MOVE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA AROUND MAXIMUM HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH HIGHER BULK SHEAR/INCREASED WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR THE MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN SOME MODERATION TAKES PLACE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME THAT WILL BARE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE LATE THIS
EVENING HAVE INDICATED A TREND FOR LESS DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM 09 TO 12Z.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED THE MVFR CIGS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
FOR KMGM AND KTOI...A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST WITH AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VIS
TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO SUNRISE...BUT COULD BE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE THINKING FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIST STARTING LATE IN THE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN VCTS TO THE TAF FOR
KMGM AND KTOI AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OR
MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST FROM 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  50  75  56  77 /  60  40  30  30  40
ANNISTON    74  51  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  54  78  59  80 /  70  40  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  77  58  79  60  82 /  70  30  40  30  40
CALERA      76  57  78  59  80 /  70  30  40  30  40
AUBURN      75  56  78  58  79 /  60  40  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  82  59  80  60  83 /  60  40  40  30  20
TROY        81  60  80  59  82 /  50  40  50  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 310944
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
444 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN
DAYS.

WILL ADD A SMALL MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH
8 OR 9 PM. THIS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE HEART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE THREAT WILL BE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS. A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT AND NOT REALLY MOVE TOO FAR. MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REACH 35-40KTS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING UPWARD MOTION...DECENT LAPSE RATES
EXISTS...AND WE ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT
UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING IS A BIT LACKING...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...NOT AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND BULK SHEAR IS MUCH LOWER...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. AS WE HEAT
UP...INSTABILITY FORMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESSER WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS....WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL THAT FAR
AWAY. BUT THINGS ARE TRENDING TOWARD HAVING SOME SEVERE STORMS AT
LEAST POSSIBLE. THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
MOVE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA AROUND MAXIMUM HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH HIGHER BULK SHEAR/INCREASED WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR THE MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN SOME MODERATION TAKES PLACE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME THAT WILL BARE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE LATE THIS
EVENING HAVE INDICATED A TREND FOR LESS DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM 09 TO 12Z.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED THE MVFR CIGS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
FOR KMGM AND KTOI...A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST WITH AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VIS
TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO SUNRISE...BUT COULD BE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE THINKING FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIST STARTING LATE IN THE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN VCTS TO THE TAF FOR
KMGM AND KTOI AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OR
MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST FROM 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  50  75  56  77 /  60  40  30  30  40
ANNISTON    74  51  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  54  78  59  80 /  70  40  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  77  58  79  60  82 /  70  30  40  30  40
CALERA      76  57  78  59  80 /  70  30  40  30  40
AUBURN      75  56  78  58  79 /  60  40  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  82  59  80  60  83 /  60  40  40  30  20
TROY        81  60  80  59  82 /  50  40  50  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 310944
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
444 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN
DAYS.

WILL ADD A SMALL MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH
8 OR 9 PM. THIS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE HEART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE THREAT WILL BE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS. A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT AND NOT REALLY MOVE TOO FAR. MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REACH 35-40KTS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING UPWARD MOTION...DECENT LAPSE RATES
EXISTS...AND WE ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT
UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING IS A BIT LACKING...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...NOT AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND BULK SHEAR IS MUCH LOWER...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. AS WE HEAT
UP...INSTABILITY FORMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESSER WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS....WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL THAT FAR
AWAY. BUT THINGS ARE TRENDING TOWARD HAVING SOME SEVERE STORMS AT
LEAST POSSIBLE. THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
MOVE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA AROUND MAXIMUM HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH HIGHER BULK SHEAR/INCREASED WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR THE MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN SOME MODERATION TAKES PLACE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME THAT WILL BARE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE LATE THIS
EVENING HAVE INDICATED A TREND FOR LESS DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM 09 TO 12Z.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED THE MVFR CIGS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
FOR KMGM AND KTOI...A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST WITH AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VIS
TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO SUNRISE...BUT COULD BE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE THINKING FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIST STARTING LATE IN THE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN VCTS TO THE TAF FOR
KMGM AND KTOI AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OR
MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST FROM 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  50  75  56  77 /  60  40  30  30  40
ANNISTON    74  51  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  54  78  59  80 /  70  40  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  77  58  79  60  82 /  70  30  40  30  40
CALERA      76  57  78  59  80 /  70  30  40  30  40
AUBURN      75  56  78  58  79 /  60  40  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  82  59  80  60  83 /  60  40  40  30  20
TROY        81  60  80  59  82 /  50  40  50  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 310944
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
444 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN
DAYS.

WILL ADD A SMALL MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH
8 OR 9 PM. THIS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE HEART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE THREAT WILL BE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS. A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT AND NOT REALLY MOVE TOO FAR. MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REACH 35-40KTS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING UPWARD MOTION...DECENT LAPSE RATES
EXISTS...AND WE ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT
UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING IS A BIT LACKING...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...NOT AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND BULK SHEAR IS MUCH LOWER...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. AS WE HEAT
UP...INSTABILITY FORMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESSER WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS....WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL THAT FAR
AWAY. BUT THINGS ARE TRENDING TOWARD HAVING SOME SEVERE STORMS AT
LEAST POSSIBLE. THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
MOVE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA AROUND MAXIMUM HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH HIGHER BULK SHEAR/INCREASED WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR THE MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN SOME MODERATION TAKES PLACE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME THAT WILL BARE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE LATE THIS
EVENING HAVE INDICATED A TREND FOR LESS DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM 09 TO 12Z.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED THE MVFR CIGS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
FOR KMGM AND KTOI...A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST WITH AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VIS
TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO SUNRISE...BUT COULD BE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE THINKING FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIST STARTING LATE IN THE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN VCTS TO THE TAF FOR
KMGM AND KTOI AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OR
MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST FROM 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  50  75  56  77 /  60  40  30  30  40
ANNISTON    74  51  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  54  78  59  80 /  70  40  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  77  58  79  60  82 /  70  30  40  30  40
CALERA      76  57  78  59  80 /  70  30  40  30  40
AUBURN      75  56  78  58  79 /  60  40  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  82  59  80  60  83 /  60  40  40  30  20
TROY        81  60  80  59  82 /  50  40  50  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310858
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  52  78  57 /  30  40  30  20
SHOALS        75  51  78  58 /  40  30  30  20
VINEMONT      72  51  74  58 /  40  40  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  73  49  73  56 /  20  30  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   71  51  73  55 /  40  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    74  48  75  55 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310858
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  52  78  57 /  30  40  30  20
SHOALS        75  51  78  58 /  40  30  30  20
VINEMONT      72  51  74  58 /  40  40  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  73  49  73  56 /  20  30  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   71  51  73  55 /  40  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    74  48  75  55 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310858
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  52  78  57 /  30  40  30  20
SHOALS        75  51  78  58 /  40  30  30  20
VINEMONT      72  51  74  58 /  40  40  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  73  49  73  56 /  20  30  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   71  51  73  55 /  40  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    74  48  75  55 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310858
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  52  78  57 /  30  40  30  20
SHOALS        75  51  78  58 /  40  30  30  20
VINEMONT      72  51  74  58 /  40  40  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  73  49  73  56 /  20  30  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   71  51  73  55 /  40  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    74  48  75  55 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 310848
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  61  81  61  83 /  05  10  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   81  63  79  62  80 /  05  10  10  10  20
DESTIN      77  64  76  63  76 /  05  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  58  82  58  84 /  20  20  30  20  20
WAYNESBORO  82  58  82  59  83 /  20  20  20  10  30
CAMDEN      82  58  81  58  83 /  30  30  40  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  85  54  84 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 310848
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  61  81  61  83 /  05  10  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   81  63  79  62  80 /  05  10  10  10  20
DESTIN      77  64  76  63  76 /  05  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  58  82  58  84 /  20  20  30  20  20
WAYNESBORO  82  58  82  59  83 /  20  20  20  10  30
CAMDEN      82  58  81  58  83 /  30  30  40  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  85  54  84 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 310848
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  61  81  61  83 /  05  10  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   81  63  79  62  80 /  05  10  10  10  20
DESTIN      77  64  76  63  76 /  05  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  58  82  58  84 /  20  20  30  20  20
WAYNESBORO  82  58  82  59  83 /  20  20  20  10  30
CAMDEN      82  58  81  58  83 /  30  30  40  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  85  54  84 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 310848
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  61  81  61  83 /  05  10  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   81  63  79  62  80 /  05  10  10  10  20
DESTIN      77  64  76  63  76 /  05  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  58  82  58  84 /  20  20  30  20  20
WAYNESBORO  82  58  82  59  83 /  20  20  20  10  30
CAMDEN      82  58  81  58  83 /  30  30  40  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  85  54  84 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 310848
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  61  81  61  83 /  05  10  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   81  63  79  62  80 /  05  10  10  10  20
DESTIN      77  64  76  63  76 /  05  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  58  82  58  84 /  20  20  30  20  20
WAYNESBORO  82  58  82  59  83 /  20  20  20  10  30
CAMDEN      82  58  81  58  83 /  30  30  40  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  85  54  84 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 310848
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  61  81  61  83 /  05  10  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   81  63  79  62  80 /  05  10  10  10  20
DESTIN      77  64  76  63  76 /  05  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  58  82  58  84 /  20  20  30  20  20
WAYNESBORO  82  58  82  59  83 /  20  20  20  10  30
CAMDEN      82  58  81  58  83 /  30  30  40  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  85  54  84 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 310848
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  61  81  61  83 /  05  10  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   81  63  79  62  80 /  05  10  10  10  20
DESTIN      77  64  76  63  76 /  05  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  58  82  58  84 /  20  20  30  20  20
WAYNESBORO  82  58  82  59  83 /  20  20  20  10  30
CAMDEN      82  58  81  58  83 /  30  30  40  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  85  54  84 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 310848
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  61  81  61  83 /  05  10  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   81  63  79  62  80 /  05  10  10  10  20
DESTIN      77  64  76  63  76 /  05  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  58  82  58  84 /  20  20  30  20  20
WAYNESBORO  82  58  82  59  83 /  20  20  20  10  30
CAMDEN      82  58  81  58  83 /  30  30  40  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  85  54  84 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 310848
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIMEGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATI
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  61  81  61  83 /  05  10  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   81  63  79  62  80 /  05  10  10  10  20
DESTIN      77  64  76  63  76 /  05  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  58  82  58  84 /  20  20  30  20  20
WAYNESBORO  82  58  82  59  83 /  20  20  20  10  30
CAMDEN      82  58  81  58  83 /  30  30  40  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  60  85  54  84 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 310513
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1213 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL THE EVENING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND LOOKING GOOD. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER IS ALREADY BEGINNING
TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LINE IS
STILL TWO COUNTIES AWAY. WILL SEE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGIN TO
ROTATE ON THE WESTERN SIDE A LITTLE BIT MORE OVERNIGHT AND WORK
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE
WATCHING AN AREA OF CLOUDS RIGHT NOW IN OKLAHOMA. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA AND APPROACH THE AREA BY
SUNRISE.

LOOKING AT THE 18Z MODEL RUNS THE NAM WAS THE BEST IN
REGARDS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE CLOUDS AND PLACEMENT AT 00Z...SO
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE NAM TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THIS WOULD BRING THE INITIAL RAIN IN RIGHT AT 7AM AND
CLOSER TO THE I-65 AREA BY 10AM. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF AREA DURING THE MORNING.
WITH THIS TIMING THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS LOOKS
TO BE WITH THE INITIAL PUSH WITH SOME WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. WE
WILL REALLY NEED TO WATCH TO OUR WEST AND SEE IF ANYTHING CAN GET
GOING IN MISSISSIPPI AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO AN MCS
TYPE OF EVENT THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE IN THE SUMMER. THE STRONGER
THE STORMS TO OUR WEST THE STRONGER STORMS WE WOULD SEE. IF THE
RAIN DOES WORK IN EARLIER...THEN THIS COULD ALSO HELP STABILIZE
THE AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.

IF THE TIMING SLOWS DOWN MORE THAN 3 HOURS THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN POSSIBLE SEVERE WILL GO UP AS THE AREA
WILL HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME TO WARM UP BY MIDDAY. THE EURO AND
CANADIAN SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION A LITTLE MORE. LOOKING AT THE
HRRR...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE TWO CAMPS ...WITH
MORE SCATTERED STUFF IN THE MORNING BECOMING MORE SOLIDIFIED BY
THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GENERALLY STRONG STORMS...BUT ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A POTENTIAL OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATES
TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN SENT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE LATE THIS
EVENING HAVE INDICATED A TREND FOR LESS DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM 09 TO 12Z.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED THE MVFR CIGS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
FOR KMGM AND KTOI...A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST WITH AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VIS
TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO SUNRISE...BUT COULD BE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE THINKING FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIST STARTING LATE IN THE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN VCTS TO THE TAF FOR
KMGM AND KTOI AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OR
MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST FROM 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  51  75  56  77 /  50  40  40  30  40
ANNISTON    71  53  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  71  55  78  59  80 /  70  50  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  74  57  79  60  82 /  70  50  40  30  40
CALERA      73  57  78  59  80 /  70  50  40  30  40
AUBURN      73  56  78  58  79 /  50  50  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  77  59  80  60  83 /  50  50  40  30  20
TROY        79  59  80  59  82 /  50  40  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 310513
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1213 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL THE EVENING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND LOOKING GOOD. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER IS ALREADY BEGINNING
TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LINE IS
STILL TWO COUNTIES AWAY. WILL SEE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGIN TO
ROTATE ON THE WESTERN SIDE A LITTLE BIT MORE OVERNIGHT AND WORK
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE
WATCHING AN AREA OF CLOUDS RIGHT NOW IN OKLAHOMA. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA AND APPROACH THE AREA BY
SUNRISE.

LOOKING AT THE 18Z MODEL RUNS THE NAM WAS THE BEST IN
REGARDS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE CLOUDS AND PLACEMENT AT 00Z...SO
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE NAM TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THIS WOULD BRING THE INITIAL RAIN IN RIGHT AT 7AM AND
CLOSER TO THE I-65 AREA BY 10AM. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF AREA DURING THE MORNING.
WITH THIS TIMING THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS LOOKS
TO BE WITH THE INITIAL PUSH WITH SOME WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. WE
WILL REALLY NEED TO WATCH TO OUR WEST AND SEE IF ANYTHING CAN GET
GOING IN MISSISSIPPI AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO AN MCS
TYPE OF EVENT THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE IN THE SUMMER. THE STRONGER
THE STORMS TO OUR WEST THE STRONGER STORMS WE WOULD SEE. IF THE
RAIN DOES WORK IN EARLIER...THEN THIS COULD ALSO HELP STABILIZE
THE AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.

IF THE TIMING SLOWS DOWN MORE THAN 3 HOURS THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN POSSIBLE SEVERE WILL GO UP AS THE AREA
WILL HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME TO WARM UP BY MIDDAY. THE EURO AND
CANADIAN SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION A LITTLE MORE. LOOKING AT THE
HRRR...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE TWO CAMPS ...WITH
MORE SCATTERED STUFF IN THE MORNING BECOMING MORE SOLIDIFIED BY
THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GENERALLY STRONG STORMS...BUT ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A POTENTIAL OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATES
TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN SENT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE LATE THIS
EVENING HAVE INDICATED A TREND FOR LESS DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM 09 TO 12Z.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED THE MVFR CIGS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
FOR KMGM AND KTOI...A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST WITH AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VIS
TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO SUNRISE...BUT COULD BE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE THINKING FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIST STARTING LATE IN THE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN VCTS TO THE TAF FOR
KMGM AND KTOI AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OR
MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST FROM 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  51  75  56  77 /  50  40  40  30  40
ANNISTON    71  53  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  71  55  78  59  80 /  70  50  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  74  57  79  60  82 /  70  50  40  30  40
CALERA      73  57  78  59  80 /  70  50  40  30  40
AUBURN      73  56  78  58  79 /  50  50  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  77  59  80  60  83 /  50  50  40  30  20
TROY        79  59  80  59  82 /  50  40  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 310513
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1213 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL THE EVENING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND LOOKING GOOD. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER IS ALREADY BEGINNING
TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LINE IS
STILL TWO COUNTIES AWAY. WILL SEE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGIN TO
ROTATE ON THE WESTERN SIDE A LITTLE BIT MORE OVERNIGHT AND WORK
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE
WATCHING AN AREA OF CLOUDS RIGHT NOW IN OKLAHOMA. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA AND APPROACH THE AREA BY
SUNRISE.

LOOKING AT THE 18Z MODEL RUNS THE NAM WAS THE BEST IN
REGARDS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE CLOUDS AND PLACEMENT AT 00Z...SO
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE NAM TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THIS WOULD BRING THE INITIAL RAIN IN RIGHT AT 7AM AND
CLOSER TO THE I-65 AREA BY 10AM. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF AREA DURING THE MORNING.
WITH THIS TIMING THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS LOOKS
TO BE WITH THE INITIAL PUSH WITH SOME WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. WE
WILL REALLY NEED TO WATCH TO OUR WEST AND SEE IF ANYTHING CAN GET
GOING IN MISSISSIPPI AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO AN MCS
TYPE OF EVENT THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE IN THE SUMMER. THE STRONGER
THE STORMS TO OUR WEST THE STRONGER STORMS WE WOULD SEE. IF THE
RAIN DOES WORK IN EARLIER...THEN THIS COULD ALSO HELP STABILIZE
THE AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.

IF THE TIMING SLOWS DOWN MORE THAN 3 HOURS THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN POSSIBLE SEVERE WILL GO UP AS THE AREA
WILL HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME TO WARM UP BY MIDDAY. THE EURO AND
CANADIAN SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION A LITTLE MORE. LOOKING AT THE
HRRR...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE TWO CAMPS ...WITH
MORE SCATTERED STUFF IN THE MORNING BECOMING MORE SOLIDIFIED BY
THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GENERALLY STRONG STORMS...BUT ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A POTENTIAL OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATES
TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN SENT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE LATE THIS
EVENING HAVE INDICATED A TREND FOR LESS DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM 09 TO 12Z.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED THE MVFR CIGS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
FOR KMGM AND KTOI...A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST WITH AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VIS
TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO SUNRISE...BUT COULD BE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE THINKING FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIST STARTING LATE IN THE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN VCTS TO THE TAF FOR
KMGM AND KTOI AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OR
MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST FROM 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  51  75  56  77 /  50  40  40  30  40
ANNISTON    71  53  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  71  55  78  59  80 /  70  50  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  74  57  79  60  82 /  70  50  40  30  40
CALERA      73  57  78  59  80 /  70  50  40  30  40
AUBURN      73  56  78  58  79 /  50  50  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  77  59  80  60  83 /  50  50  40  30  20
TROY        79  59  80  59  82 /  50  40  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 310513
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1213 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL THE EVENING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND LOOKING GOOD. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER IS ALREADY BEGINNING
TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LINE IS
STILL TWO COUNTIES AWAY. WILL SEE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGIN TO
ROTATE ON THE WESTERN SIDE A LITTLE BIT MORE OVERNIGHT AND WORK
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE
WATCHING AN AREA OF CLOUDS RIGHT NOW IN OKLAHOMA. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA AND APPROACH THE AREA BY
SUNRISE.

LOOKING AT THE 18Z MODEL RUNS THE NAM WAS THE BEST IN
REGARDS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE CLOUDS AND PLACEMENT AT 00Z...SO
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE NAM TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THIS WOULD BRING THE INITIAL RAIN IN RIGHT AT 7AM AND
CLOSER TO THE I-65 AREA BY 10AM. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF AREA DURING THE MORNING.
WITH THIS TIMING THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS LOOKS
TO BE WITH THE INITIAL PUSH WITH SOME WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. WE
WILL REALLY NEED TO WATCH TO OUR WEST AND SEE IF ANYTHING CAN GET
GOING IN MISSISSIPPI AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO AN MCS
TYPE OF EVENT THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE IN THE SUMMER. THE STRONGER
THE STORMS TO OUR WEST THE STRONGER STORMS WE WOULD SEE. IF THE
RAIN DOES WORK IN EARLIER...THEN THIS COULD ALSO HELP STABILIZE
THE AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.

IF THE TIMING SLOWS DOWN MORE THAN 3 HOURS THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN POSSIBLE SEVERE WILL GO UP AS THE AREA
WILL HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME TO WARM UP BY MIDDAY. THE EURO AND
CANADIAN SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION A LITTLE MORE. LOOKING AT THE
HRRR...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE TWO CAMPS ...WITH
MORE SCATTERED STUFF IN THE MORNING BECOMING MORE SOLIDIFIED BY
THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GENERALLY STRONG STORMS...BUT ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A POTENTIAL OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATES
TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN SENT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE LATE THIS
EVENING HAVE INDICATED A TREND FOR LESS DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM 09 TO 12Z.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED THE MVFR CIGS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
FOR KMGM AND KTOI...A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST WITH AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VIS
TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO SUNRISE...BUT COULD BE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE THINKING FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIST STARTING LATE IN THE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN VCTS TO THE TAF FOR
KMGM AND KTOI AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OR
MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST FROM 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  51  75  56  77 /  50  40  40  30  40
ANNISTON    71  53  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  71  55  78  59  80 /  70  50  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  74  57  79  60  82 /  70  50  40  30  40
CALERA      73  57  78  59  80 /  70  50  40  30  40
AUBURN      73  56  78  58  79 /  50  50  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  77  59  80  60  83 /  50  50  40  30  20
TROY        79  59  80  59  82 /  50  40  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310502
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310502
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310502
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310502
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310502
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310502
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 310454
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1154 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
31.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST NEAR THE SEABREEZE. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  82  61  81  61 /  10  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   62  81  63  79  62 /  10  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      65  77  64  76  63 /  10  05  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   56  84  58  82  58 /  10  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  57  82  58  82  59 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      56  82  58  81  58 /  10  30  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   59  84  60  85  54 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 310454
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1154 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
31.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST NEAR THE SEABREEZE. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  82  61  81  61 /  10  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   62  81  63  79  62 /  10  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      65  77  64  76  63 /  10  05  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   56  84  58  82  58 /  10  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  57  82  58  82  59 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      56  82  58  81  58 /  10  30  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   59  84  60  85  54 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 310240
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
940 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL THE EVENING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND LOOKING GOOD. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER IS ALREADY BEGINNING
TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LINE IS
STILL TWO COUNTIES AWAY. WILL SEE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGIN TO
ROTATE ON THE WESTERN SIDE A LITTLE BIT MORE OVERNIGHT AND WORK
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE
WATCHING AN AREA OF CLOUDS RIGHT NOW IN OKLAHOMA. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA AND APPROACH THE AREA BY
SUNRISE.

LOOKING AT THE 18Z MODEL RUNS THE NAM WAS THE BEST IN
REGARDS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE CLOUDS AND PLACEMENT AT 00Z...SO
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE NAM TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THIS WOULD BRING THE INITIAL RAIN IN RIGHT AT 7AM AND
CLOSER TO THE I-65 AREA BY 10AM. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF AREA DURING THE MORNING.
WITH THIS TIMING THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS LOOKS
TO BE WITH THE INITIAL PUSH WITH SOME WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. WE
WILL REALLY NEED TO WATCH TO OUR WEST AND SEE IF ANYTHING CAN GET
GOING IN MISSISSIPPI AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO AN MCS
TYPE OF EVENT THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE IN THE SUMMER. THE STRONGER
THE STORMS TO OUR WEST THE STRONGER STORMS WE WOULD SEE. IF THE
RAIN DOES WORK IN EARLIER...THEN THIS COULD ALSO HELP STABILIZE
THE AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.

IF THE TIMING SLOWS DOWN MORE THAN 3 HOURS THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN POSSIBLE SEVERE WILL GO UP AS THE AREA
WILL HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME TO WARM UP BY MIDDAY. THE EURO AND
CANADIAN SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION A LITTLE MORE. LOOKING AT THE
HRRR...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE TWO CAMPS ...WITH
MORE SCATTERED STUFF IN THE MORNING BECOMING MORE SOLIDIFIED BY
THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GENERALLY STRONG STORMS...BUT ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A POTENTIAL OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATES
TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN SENT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
FOR ALL TERMINALS...BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. FOG WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO NOW DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 12Z AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WE NOW HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NOW INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF FOR
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT HAVE LEFT VCTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS FOR NOW.

56/GDG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH OF THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85
CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND THEN PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO FORM ALONG AND SOUTH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE THE WARM FRONT...SO THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS AND SB CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...SO SOME
STORMS STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE THREAT WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH NUDGING INTO EAST ALABAMA. CONVECTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BRING VERY WARM AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INCLUDING ANY SEVERE IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN INTACT AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  51  75  56 /   0  50  40  40  30
ANNISTON    45  71  53  76  57 /   0  60  40  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  47  71  55  78  59 /   0  70  50  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  53  74  57  79  60 /   0  70  50  40  30
CALERA      50  73  57  78  59 /   0  70  50  40  30
AUBURN      51  73  56  78  58 /   0  50  50  40  30
MONTGOMERY  55  77  59  80  60 /  10  50  50  40  30
TROY        54  79  59  80  59 /  10  50  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 310240
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
940 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL THE EVENING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND LOOKING GOOD. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER IS ALREADY BEGINNING
TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LINE IS
STILL TWO COUNTIES AWAY. WILL SEE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGIN TO
ROTATE ON THE WESTERN SIDE A LITTLE BIT MORE OVERNIGHT AND WORK
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE
WATCHING AN AREA OF CLOUDS RIGHT NOW IN OKLAHOMA. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA AND APPROACH THE AREA BY
SUNRISE.

LOOKING AT THE 18Z MODEL RUNS THE NAM WAS THE BEST IN
REGARDS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE CLOUDS AND PLACEMENT AT 00Z...SO
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE NAM TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THIS WOULD BRING THE INITIAL RAIN IN RIGHT AT 7AM AND
CLOSER TO THE I-65 AREA BY 10AM. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF AREA DURING THE MORNING.
WITH THIS TIMING THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS LOOKS
TO BE WITH THE INITIAL PUSH WITH SOME WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. WE
WILL REALLY NEED TO WATCH TO OUR WEST AND SEE IF ANYTHING CAN GET
GOING IN MISSISSIPPI AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO AN MCS
TYPE OF EVENT THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE IN THE SUMMER. THE STRONGER
THE STORMS TO OUR WEST THE STRONGER STORMS WE WOULD SEE. IF THE
RAIN DOES WORK IN EARLIER...THEN THIS COULD ALSO HELP STABILIZE
THE AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.

IF THE TIMING SLOWS DOWN MORE THAN 3 HOURS THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN POSSIBLE SEVERE WILL GO UP AS THE AREA
WILL HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME TO WARM UP BY MIDDAY. THE EURO AND
CANADIAN SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION A LITTLE MORE. LOOKING AT THE
HRRR...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE TWO CAMPS ...WITH
MORE SCATTERED STUFF IN THE MORNING BECOMING MORE SOLIDIFIED BY
THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GENERALLY STRONG STORMS...BUT ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A POTENTIAL OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATES
TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN SENT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
FOR ALL TERMINALS...BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. FOG WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO NOW DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 12Z AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WE NOW HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NOW INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF FOR
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT HAVE LEFT VCTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS FOR NOW.

56/GDG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH OF THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85
CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND THEN PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO FORM ALONG AND SOUTH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE THE WARM FRONT...SO THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS AND SB CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...SO SOME
STORMS STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE THREAT WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH NUDGING INTO EAST ALABAMA. CONVECTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BRING VERY WARM AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INCLUDING ANY SEVERE IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN INTACT AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  51  75  56 /   0  50  40  40  30
ANNISTON    45  71  53  76  57 /   0  60  40  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  47  71  55  78  59 /   0  70  50  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  53  74  57  79  60 /   0  70  50  40  30
CALERA      50  73  57  78  59 /   0  70  50  40  30
AUBURN      51  73  56  78  58 /   0  50  50  40  30
MONTGOMERY  55  77  59  80  60 /  10  50  50  40  30
TROY        54  79  59  80  59 /  10  50  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 310240
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
940 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL THE EVENING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND LOOKING GOOD. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER IS ALREADY BEGINNING
TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LINE IS
STILL TWO COUNTIES AWAY. WILL SEE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGIN TO
ROTATE ON THE WESTERN SIDE A LITTLE BIT MORE OVERNIGHT AND WORK
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE
WATCHING AN AREA OF CLOUDS RIGHT NOW IN OKLAHOMA. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA AND APPROACH THE AREA BY
SUNRISE.

LOOKING AT THE 18Z MODEL RUNS THE NAM WAS THE BEST IN
REGARDS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE CLOUDS AND PLACEMENT AT 00Z...SO
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE NAM TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THIS WOULD BRING THE INITIAL RAIN IN RIGHT AT 7AM AND
CLOSER TO THE I-65 AREA BY 10AM. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF AREA DURING THE MORNING.
WITH THIS TIMING THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS LOOKS
TO BE WITH THE INITIAL PUSH WITH SOME WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. WE
WILL REALLY NEED TO WATCH TO OUR WEST AND SEE IF ANYTHING CAN GET
GOING IN MISSISSIPPI AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO AN MCS
TYPE OF EVENT THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE IN THE SUMMER. THE STRONGER
THE STORMS TO OUR WEST THE STRONGER STORMS WE WOULD SEE. IF THE
RAIN DOES WORK IN EARLIER...THEN THIS COULD ALSO HELP STABILIZE
THE AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.

IF THE TIMING SLOWS DOWN MORE THAN 3 HOURS THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN POSSIBLE SEVERE WILL GO UP AS THE AREA
WILL HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME TO WARM UP BY MIDDAY. THE EURO AND
CANADIAN SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION A LITTLE MORE. LOOKING AT THE
HRRR...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE TWO CAMPS ...WITH
MORE SCATTERED STUFF IN THE MORNING BECOMING MORE SOLIDIFIED BY
THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GENERALLY STRONG STORMS...BUT ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A POTENTIAL OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATES
TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN SENT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
FOR ALL TERMINALS...BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. FOG WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO NOW DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 12Z AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WE NOW HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NOW INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF FOR
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT HAVE LEFT VCTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS FOR NOW.

56/GDG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH OF THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85
CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND THEN PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO FORM ALONG AND SOUTH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE THE WARM FRONT...SO THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS AND SB CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...SO SOME
STORMS STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE THREAT WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH NUDGING INTO EAST ALABAMA. CONVECTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BRING VERY WARM AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INCLUDING ANY SEVERE IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN INTACT AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  51  75  56 /   0  50  40  40  30
ANNISTON    45  71  53  76  57 /   0  60  40  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  47  71  55  78  59 /   0  70  50  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  53  74  57  79  60 /   0  70  50  40  30
CALERA      50  73  57  78  59 /   0  70  50  40  30
AUBURN      51  73  56  78  58 /   0  50  50  40  30
MONTGOMERY  55  77  59  80  60 /  10  50  50  40  30
TROY        54  79  59  80  59 /  10  50  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310216
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310216
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310216
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 310146 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
846 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
31.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MAINLY SCATTERED VFR LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
SURFACE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY OCCURRING
ALONG A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO ANDALUSIA AL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF AL. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER...DEPICTING
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP OCCURRING
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA ATTM THOUGH BELIEVE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS STILL CLIMBING AND BETTER DEWPTS SPREADING INLAND
FROM THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BELIEVE BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
MORE PRECIP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. ONE CONCERN WITH SOME THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL TO
MEDIUM SIZE HAIL. WETBULBS ARE STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 7.8K TO 9.2K FT
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT MUCH LESS COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MID FORCING CONTINUES...PROMPTING SCATTERED
POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS MORE MID TO HIGH
BASE MOISTURE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ADVECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TUES AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TUE
WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THE WEAK SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS LINGERING ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HWY 84 IN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS RIDGING IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY
REMAINING CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WHERE MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE RIDGING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20% FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WELL INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES CONFINED OVER FAR INLAND SW AL/SE MS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY/MIDWEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE HIGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
30.18Z ISSUANCE...MOST VFR TO MVFR CIGS A THROUGH 31.18Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
THEN INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  82  61  81  61 /  10  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   62  81  63  79  62 /  10  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      65  77  64  76  63 /  10  05  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   56  84  58  82  58 /  10  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  57  82  58  82  59 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      56  82  58  81  58 /  10  30  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   59  84  60  85  54 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 310146 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
846 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
31.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MAINLY SCATTERED VFR LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
SURFACE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY OCCURRING
ALONG A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO ANDALUSIA AL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF AL. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER...DEPICTING
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP OCCURRING
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA ATTM THOUGH BELIEVE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS STILL CLIMBING AND BETTER DEWPTS SPREADING INLAND
FROM THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BELIEVE BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
MORE PRECIP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. ONE CONCERN WITH SOME THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL TO
MEDIUM SIZE HAIL. WETBULBS ARE STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 7.8K TO 9.2K FT
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT MUCH LESS COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MID FORCING CONTINUES...PROMPTING SCATTERED
POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS MORE MID TO HIGH
BASE MOISTURE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ADVECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TUES AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TUE
WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THE WEAK SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS LINGERING ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HWY 84 IN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS RIDGING IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY
REMAINING CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WHERE MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE RIDGING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20% FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WELL INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES CONFINED OVER FAR INLAND SW AL/SE MS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY/MIDWEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE HIGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
30.18Z ISSUANCE...MOST VFR TO MVFR CIGS A THROUGH 31.18Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
THEN INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  82  61  81  61 /  10  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   62  81  63  79  62 /  10  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      65  77  64  76  63 /  10  05  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   56  84  58  82  58 /  10  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  57  82  58  82  59 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      56  82  58  81  58 /  10  30  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   59  84  60  85  54 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 310004
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
704 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH OF THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85
CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND THEN PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO FORM ALONG AND SOUTH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE THE WARM FRONT...SO THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS AND SB CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...SO SOME
STORMS STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE THREAT WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH NUDGING INTO EAST ALABAMA. CONVECTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BRING VERY WARM AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INCLUDING ANY SEVERE IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN INTACT AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
FOR ALL TERMINALS...BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. FOG WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO NOW DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 12Z AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WE NOW HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NOW INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF FOR
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT HAVE LEFT VCTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS FOR NOW.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  51  75  56 /   0  50  40  40  30
ANNISTON    45  72  53  76  57 /   0  50  40  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  47  71  55  78  59 /   0  50  40  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  53  74  57  79  60 /   0  50  40  40  30
CALERA      50  73  57  78  59 /   0  50  50  40  30
AUBURN      51  73  56  78  58 /   0  50  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  55  77  59  80  60 /  10  50  40  40  30
TROY        54  78  59  80  59 /  10  40  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 310004
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
704 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH OF THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85
CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND THEN PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO FORM ALONG AND SOUTH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE THE WARM FRONT...SO THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS AND SB CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...SO SOME
STORMS STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE THREAT WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH NUDGING INTO EAST ALABAMA. CONVECTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BRING VERY WARM AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INCLUDING ANY SEVERE IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN INTACT AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
FOR ALL TERMINALS...BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. FOG WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO NOW DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 12Z AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WE NOW HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NOW INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF FOR
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT HAVE LEFT VCTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS FOR NOW.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  51  75  56 /   0  50  40  40  30
ANNISTON    45  72  53  76  57 /   0  50  40  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  47  71  55  78  59 /   0  50  40  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  53  74  57  79  60 /   0  50  40  40  30
CALERA      50  73  57  78  59 /   0  50  50  40  30
AUBURN      51  73  56  78  58 /   0  50  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  55  77  59  80  60 /  10  50  40  40  30
TROY        54  78  59  80  59 /  10  40  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 310004
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
704 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH OF THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85
CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND THEN PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO FORM ALONG AND SOUTH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE THE WARM FRONT...SO THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS AND SB CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...SO SOME
STORMS STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE THREAT WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH NUDGING INTO EAST ALABAMA. CONVECTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BRING VERY WARM AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INCLUDING ANY SEVERE IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN INTACT AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
FOR ALL TERMINALS...BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. FOG WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO NOW DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 12Z AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WE NOW HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NOW INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF FOR
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT HAVE LEFT VCTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS FOR NOW.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  51  75  56 /   0  50  40  40  30
ANNISTON    45  72  53  76  57 /   0  50  40  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  47  71  55  78  59 /   0  50  40  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  53  74  57  79  60 /   0  50  40  40  30
CALERA      50  73  57  78  59 /   0  50  50  40  30
AUBURN      51  73  56  78  58 /   0  50  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  55  77  59  80  60 /  10  50  40  40  30
TROY        54  78  59  80  59 /  10  40  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 302356
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
656 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
31.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MAINLY SCATTERED VFR LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
SURFACE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY OCCURRING
ALONG A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO ANDALUSIA AL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF AL. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER...DEPICTING
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP OCCURRING
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA ATTM THOUGH BELIEVE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS STILL CLIMBING AND BETTER DEWPTS SPREADING INLAND
FROM THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BELIEVE BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
MORE PRECIP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. ONE CONCERN WITH SOME THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL TO
MEDIUM SIZE HAIL. WETBULBS ARE STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 7.8K TO 9.2K FT
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT MUCH LESS COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MID FORCING CONTINUES...PROMPTING SCATTERED
POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS MORE MID TO HIGH
BASE MOISTURE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ADVECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TUES AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TUE
WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THE WEAK SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS LINGERING ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HWY 84 IN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS RIDGING IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY
REMAINING CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WHERE MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE RIDGING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20% FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WELL INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES CONFINED OVER FAR INLAND SW AL/SE MS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY/MIDWEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE HIGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
30.18Z ISSUANCE...MOST VFR TO MVFR CIGS A THROUGH 31.18Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
THEN INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  82  61  81  61 /  30  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   62  81  63  79  62 /  20  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      65  77  64  76  63 /  20  05  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   56  84  58  82  58 /  30  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  57  82  58  82  59 /  20  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      56  82  58  81  58 /  20  30  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   59  84  60  85  54 /  30  10  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 302356
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
656 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
31.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MAINLY SCATTERED VFR LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
SURFACE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY OCCURRING
ALONG A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO ANDALUSIA AL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF AL. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER...DEPICTING
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP OCCURRING
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA ATTM THOUGH BELIEVE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS STILL CLIMBING AND BETTER DEWPTS SPREADING INLAND
FROM THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BELIEVE BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
MORE PRECIP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. ONE CONCERN WITH SOME THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL TO
MEDIUM SIZE HAIL. WETBULBS ARE STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 7.8K TO 9.2K FT
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT MUCH LESS COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MID FORCING CONTINUES...PROMPTING SCATTERED
POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS MORE MID TO HIGH
BASE MOISTURE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ADVECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TUES AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TUE
WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THE WEAK SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS LINGERING ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HWY 84 IN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS RIDGING IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY
REMAINING CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WHERE MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE RIDGING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20% FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WELL INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES CONFINED OVER FAR INLAND SW AL/SE MS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY/MIDWEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE HIGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
30.18Z ISSUANCE...MOST VFR TO MVFR CIGS A THROUGH 31.18Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
THEN INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  82  61  81  61 /  30  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   62  81  63  79  62 /  20  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      65  77  64  76  63 /  20  05  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   56  84  58  82  58 /  30  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  57  82  58  82  59 /  20  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      56  82  58  81  58 /  20  30  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   59  84  60  85  54 /  30  10  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 302356
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
656 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
31.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MAINLY SCATTERED VFR LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
SURFACE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY OCCURRING
ALONG A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO ANDALUSIA AL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF AL. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER...DEPICTING
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP OCCURRING
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA ATTM THOUGH BELIEVE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS STILL CLIMBING AND BETTER DEWPTS SPREADING INLAND
FROM THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BELIEVE BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
MORE PRECIP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. ONE CONCERN WITH SOME THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL TO
MEDIUM SIZE HAIL. WETBULBS ARE STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 7.8K TO 9.2K FT
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT MUCH LESS COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MID FORCING CONTINUES...PROMPTING SCATTERED
POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS MORE MID TO HIGH
BASE MOISTURE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ADVECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TUES AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TUE
WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THE WEAK SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS LINGERING ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HWY 84 IN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS RIDGING IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY
REMAINING CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WHERE MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE RIDGING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20% FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WELL INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES CONFINED OVER FAR INLAND SW AL/SE MS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY/MIDWEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE HIGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
30.18Z ISSUANCE...MOST VFR TO MVFR CIGS A THROUGH 31.18Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
THEN INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  82  61  81  61 /  30  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   62  81  63  79  62 /  20  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      65  77  64  76  63 /  20  05  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   56  84  58  82  58 /  30  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  57  82  58  82  59 /  20  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      56  82  58  81  58 /  20  30  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   59  84  60  85  54 /  30  10  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 302356
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
656 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
31.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MAINLY SCATTERED VFR LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
SURFACE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY OCCURRING
ALONG A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO ANDALUSIA AL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF AL. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER...DEPICTING
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP OCCURRING
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA ATTM THOUGH BELIEVE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS STILL CLIMBING AND BETTER DEWPTS SPREADING INLAND
FROM THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BELIEVE BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
MORE PRECIP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. ONE CONCERN WITH SOME THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL TO
MEDIUM SIZE HAIL. WETBULBS ARE STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 7.8K TO 9.2K FT
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT MUCH LESS COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MID FORCING CONTINUES...PROMPTING SCATTERED
POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS MORE MID TO HIGH
BASE MOISTURE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ADVECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TUES AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TUE
WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THE WEAK SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS LINGERING ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HWY 84 IN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS RIDGING IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY
REMAINING CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WHERE MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE RIDGING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20% FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WELL INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES CONFINED OVER FAR INLAND SW AL/SE MS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY/MIDWEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE HIGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
30.18Z ISSUANCE...MOST VFR TO MVFR CIGS A THROUGH 31.18Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
THEN INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  82  61  81  61 /  30  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   62  81  63  79  62 /  20  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      65  77  64  76  63 /  20  05  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   56  84  58  82  58 /  30  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  57  82  58  82  59 /  20  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      56  82  58  81  58 /  20  30  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   59  84  60  85  54 /  30  10  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 302356
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
656 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
31.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MAINLY SCATTERED VFR LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
SURFACE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY OCCURRING
ALONG A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO ANDALUSIA AL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF AL. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER...DEPICTING
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP OCCURRING
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA ATTM THOUGH BELIEVE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS STILL CLIMBING AND BETTER DEWPTS SPREADING INLAND
FROM THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BELIEVE BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
MORE PRECIP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. ONE CONCERN WITH SOME THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL TO
MEDIUM SIZE HAIL. WETBULBS ARE STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 7.8K TO 9.2K FT
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT MUCH LESS COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MID FORCING CONTINUES...PROMPTING SCATTERED
POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS MORE MID TO HIGH
BASE MOISTURE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ADVECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TUES AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TUE
WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THE WEAK SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS LINGERING ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HWY 84 IN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS RIDGING IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY
REMAINING CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WHERE MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE RIDGING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20% FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WELL INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES CONFINED OVER FAR INLAND SW AL/SE MS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY/MIDWEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE HIGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
30.18Z ISSUANCE...MOST VFR TO MVFR CIGS A THROUGH 31.18Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
THEN INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  82  61  81  61 /  30  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   62  81  63  79  62 /  20  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      65  77  64  76  63 /  20  05  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   56  84  58  82  58 /  30  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  57  82  58  82  59 /  20  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      56  82  58  81  58 /  20  30  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   59  84  60  85  54 /  30  10  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 302338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 302338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 302338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 302338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 302338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 302338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 302107
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
SURFACE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY OCCURRING
ALONG A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO ANDALUSIA AL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF AL. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER...DEPICTING
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP OCCURRING
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA ATTM THOUGH BELIEVE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS STILL CLIMBING AND BETTER DEWPTS SPREADING INLAND
FROM THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BELIEVE BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
MORE PRECIP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. ONE CONCERN WITH SOME THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL TO
MEDIUM SIZE HAIL. WETBULBS ARE STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 7.8K TO 9.2K FT
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT MUCH LESS COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MID FORCING CONTINUES...PROMPTING SCATTERED
POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS MORE MID TO HIGH
BASE MOISTURE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ADVECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TUES AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TUE
WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THE WEAK SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS LINGERING ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HWY 84 IN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS RIDGING IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY
REMAINING CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WHERE MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE RIDGING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20% FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WELL INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES CONFINED OVER FAR INLAND SW AL/SE MS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY/MIDWEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE HIGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
30.18Z ISSUANCE...MOST VFR TO MVFR CIGS A THROUGH 31.18Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
THEN INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  82  61  81  61 /  20  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   62  81  63  79  62 /  20  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      65  77  64  76  63 /  20  05  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   56  84  58  82  58 /  30  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  57  82  58  82  59 /  30  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      56  82  58  81  58 /  40  30  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   59  84  60  85  54 /  30  10  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 302107
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
SURFACE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY OCCURRING
ALONG A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO ANDALUSIA AL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF AL. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER...DEPICTING
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP OCCURRING
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA ATTM THOUGH BELIEVE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS STILL CLIMBING AND BETTER DEWPTS SPREADING INLAND
FROM THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BELIEVE BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
MORE PRECIP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. ONE CONCERN WITH SOME THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL TO
MEDIUM SIZE HAIL. WETBULBS ARE STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 7.8K TO 9.2K FT
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT MUCH LESS COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MID FORCING CONTINUES...PROMPTING SCATTERED
POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS MORE MID TO HIGH
BASE MOISTURE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ADVECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TUES AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TUE
WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THE WEAK SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS LINGERING ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HWY 84 IN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS RIDGING IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY
REMAINING CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WHERE MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE RIDGING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20% FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WELL INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES CONFINED OVER FAR INLAND SW AL/SE MS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY/MIDWEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE HIGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
30.18Z ISSUANCE...MOST VFR TO MVFR CIGS A THROUGH 31.18Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
THEN INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  82  61  81  61 /  20  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   62  81  63  79  62 /  20  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      65  77  64  76  63 /  20  05  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   56  84  58  82  58 /  30  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  57  82  58  82  59 /  30  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      56  82  58  81  58 /  40  30  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   59  84  60  85  54 /  30  10  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 302107
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
SURFACE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY OCCURRING
ALONG A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO ANDALUSIA AL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF AL. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER...DEPICTING
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP OCCURRING
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA ATTM THOUGH BELIEVE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS STILL CLIMBING AND BETTER DEWPTS SPREADING INLAND
FROM THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BELIEVE BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
MORE PRECIP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. ONE CONCERN WITH SOME THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL TO
MEDIUM SIZE HAIL. WETBULBS ARE STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 7.8K TO 9.2K FT
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT MUCH LESS COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MID FORCING CONTINUES...PROMPTING SCATTERED
POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS MORE MID TO HIGH
BASE MOISTURE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ADVECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TUES AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TUE
WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THE WEAK SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS LINGERING ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HWY 84 IN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS RIDGING IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY
REMAINING CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WHERE MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE RIDGING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20% FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WELL INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES CONFINED OVER FAR INLAND SW AL/SE MS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY/MIDWEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE HIGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
30.18Z ISSUANCE...MOST VFR TO MVFR CIGS A THROUGH 31.18Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
THEN INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  82  61  81  61 /  20  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   62  81  63  79  62 /  20  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      65  77  64  76  63 /  20  05  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   56  84  58  82  58 /  30  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  57  82  58  82  59 /  30  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      56  82  58  81  58 /  40  30  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   59  84  60  85  54 /  30  10  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 302002
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH OF THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85
CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND THEN PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO FORM ALONG AND SOUTH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE THE WARM FRONT...SO THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS AND SB CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...SO SOME
STORMS STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE THREAT WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH NUDGING INTO EAST ALABAMA. CONVECTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BRING VERY WARM AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INCLUDING ANY SEVERE IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN INTACT AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ERODING AT THE NORTHERN SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KMGM AND KTOI. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY
00Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS
AROUND 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z...AND LOWERING TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY 15Z-18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z...BUT CHANCES AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMGM AND
ESPECIALLY KTOI TOWARD 12Z SO HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN TAFS.

/41/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  51  75  56 /   0  50  40  40  30
ANNISTON    45  72  53  76  57 /   0  50  40  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  47  71  55  78  59 /   0  50  40  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  53  74  57  79  60 /   0  50  40  40  30
CALERA      50  73  57  78  59 /   0  50  50  40  30
AUBURN      51  73  56  78  58 /   0  50  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  55  77  59  80  60 /  10  50  40  40  30
TROY        54  78  59  80  59 /  10  40  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 302002
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT, AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID SOUTH.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES, BUT CIGS MAY REMAIN VFR UNLESS SUSTAINED
RAINFALL OCCURS. FORECAST INCLUDES A PROB30 FOR TSRA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  72  50  76 /  10  40  40  30
SHOALS        46  71  53  77 /  10  40  30  30
VINEMONT      46  69  51  76 /  10  40  40  30
FAYETTEVILLE  43  69  49  72 /  10  30  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   44  68  49  75 /  10  40  40  30
FORT PAYNE    41  69  49  74 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 302002
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT, AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID SOUTH.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES, BUT CIGS MAY REMAIN VFR UNLESS SUSTAINED
RAINFALL OCCURS. FORECAST INCLUDES A PROB30 FOR TSRA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  72  50  76 /  10  40  40  30
SHOALS        46  71  53  77 /  10  40  30  30
VINEMONT      46  69  51  76 /  10  40  40  30
FAYETTEVILLE  43  69  49  72 /  10  30  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   44  68  49  75 /  10  40  40  30
FORT PAYNE    41  69  49  74 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 302002
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT, AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID SOUTH.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES, BUT CIGS MAY REMAIN VFR UNLESS SUSTAINED
RAINFALL OCCURS. FORECAST INCLUDES A PROB30 FOR TSRA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  72  50  76 /  10  40  40  30
SHOALS        46  71  53  77 /  10  40  30  30
VINEMONT      46  69  51  76 /  10  40  40  30
FAYETTEVILLE  43  69  49  72 /  10  30  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   44  68  49  75 /  10  40  40  30
FORT PAYNE    41  69  49  74 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ERODING AT THE NORTHERN SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KMGM AND KTOI. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY
00Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS
AROUND 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z...AND LOWERING TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY 15Z-18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z...BUT CHANCES AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMGM AND
ESPECIALLY KTOI TOWARD 12Z SO HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN TAFS.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ERODING AT THE NORTHERN SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KMGM AND KTOI. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY
00Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS
AROUND 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z...AND LOWERING TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY 15Z-18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z...BUT CHANCES AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMGM AND
ESPECIALLY KTOI TOWARD 12Z SO HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN TAFS.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ERODING AT THE NORTHERN SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KMGM AND KTOI. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY
00Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS
AROUND 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z...AND LOWERING TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY 15Z-18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z...BUT CHANCES AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMGM AND
ESPECIALLY KTOI TOWARD 12Z SO HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN TAFS.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ERODING AT THE NORTHERN SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KMGM AND KTOI. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY
00Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS
AROUND 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z...AND LOWERING TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY 15Z-18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z...BUT CHANCES AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMGM AND
ESPECIALLY KTOI TOWARD 12Z SO HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN TAFS.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ERODING AT THE NORTHERN SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KMGM AND KTOI. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY
00Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS
AROUND 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z...AND LOWERING TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY 15Z-18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z...BUT CHANCES AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMGM AND
ESPECIALLY KTOI TOWARD 12Z SO HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN TAFS.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ERODING AT THE NORTHERN SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KMGM AND KTOI. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY
00Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS
AROUND 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z...AND LOWERING TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY 15Z-18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z...BUT CHANCES AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMGM AND
ESPECIALLY KTOI TOWARD 12Z SO HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN TAFS.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301648 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1148 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1002 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

INSOLATION AND DRIER AIRMASS (SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER W TN/E AR)
BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY HAS DISSIPATED THE
POST QLCS CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER OVER NORTH
ALABAMA (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL). THUS, HAVE INCREASED FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER NW AL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AL. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY, BUT IS OCCURRING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE, HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT THOSE CHANGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT, AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID SOUTH.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES, BUT CIGS MAY REMAIN VFR UNLESS SUSTAINED
RAINFALL OCCURS. FORECAST INCLUDES A PROB30 FOR TSRA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301648 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1148 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1002 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

INSOLATION AND DRIER AIRMASS (SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER W TN/E AR)
BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY HAS DISSIPATED THE
POST QLCS CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER OVER NORTH
ALABAMA (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL). THUS, HAVE INCREASED FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER NW AL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AL. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY, BUT IS OCCURRING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE, HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT THOSE CHANGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT, AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID SOUTH.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES, BUT CIGS MAY REMAIN VFR UNLESS SUSTAINED
RAINFALL OCCURS. FORECAST INCLUDES A PROB30 FOR TSRA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301511
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1011 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301511
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1011 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301502 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1002 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED PATCHY FOG, ADJUSTED SKY COVER, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE, AND AIR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

INSOLATION AND DRIER AIRMASS (SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER W TN/E AR)
BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY HAS DISSIPATED THE
POST QLCS CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER OVER NORTH
ALABAMA (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL). THUS, HAVE INCREASED FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER NW AL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AL. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY, BUT IS OCCURRING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE, HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT THOSE CHANGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301502 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1002 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED PATCHY FOG, ADJUSTED SKY COVER, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE, AND AIR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

INSOLATION AND DRIER AIRMASS (SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER W TN/E AR)
BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY HAS DISSIPATED THE
POST QLCS CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER OVER NORTH
ALABAMA (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL). THUS, HAVE INCREASED FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER NW AL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AL. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY, BUT IS OCCURRING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE, HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT THOSE CHANGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301257 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
757 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM FORECAST THIS MORNING AND TO ADD
PATCHY FOG FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUICK MOVING MCS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AL AND
CENTRAL GA. WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEARING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY, HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. FUTHERMORE, DUE TO THE QUICK CLEARING RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE
AND RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE, PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHERE THE CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL/S MIDDLE TN). SO, HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FOREAST THROUGH 15Z WHEN AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD
EVAPORATE IT.

OTHERWISE, MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
VIS SATELLITE WITH BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NE AL/S MIDDLE TN.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301257 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
757 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM FORECAST THIS MORNING AND TO ADD
PATCHY FOG FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUICK MOVING MCS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AL AND
CENTRAL GA. WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEARING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY, HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. FUTHERMORE, DUE TO THE QUICK CLEARING RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE
AND RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE, PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHERE THE CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL/S MIDDLE TN). SO, HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FOREAST THROUGH 15Z WHEN AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD
EVAPORATE IT.

OTHERWISE, MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
VIS SATELLITE WITH BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NE AL/S MIDDLE TN.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301257 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
757 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM FORECAST THIS MORNING AND TO ADD
PATCHY FOG FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUICK MOVING MCS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AL AND
CENTRAL GA. WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEARING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY, HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. FUTHERMORE, DUE TO THE QUICK CLEARING RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE
AND RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE, PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHERE THE CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL/S MIDDLE TN). SO, HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FOREAST THROUGH 15Z WHEN AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD
EVAPORATE IT.

OTHERWISE, MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
VIS SATELLITE WITH BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NE AL/S MIDDLE TN.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 301157
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
657 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD IN THESE
AREAS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEREFORE
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. THE MAIN FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM DIURNAL HEATING AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  WILL REACH 500-700 J/KG WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 8000-8500
FEET. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. 13/JC

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...THE STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS THE GENERAL FCST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING JUST
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE
TIMES OF THE DAY (AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) AND LESS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A CONTINUED MARGINAL THREAT OF A FEW
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS (ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY) WITH LARGE
HAIL REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 70S (COASTAL)
TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S (INLAND). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. 12/DS

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DROPS SOUTH. WITH THIS RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...COOLING TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 12/DS

AVIATION...30/12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/JC

MARINE....A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  58  78  63  78 /  30  10  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   79  61  77  64  77 /  30  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      76  63  73  66  74 /  30  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   82  55  81  60  80 /  40  10  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  79  55  80  59  80 /  40  10  20  20  20
CAMDEN      80  55  79  59  78 /  60  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   82  55  79  62  79 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 301157
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
657 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD IN THESE
AREAS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEREFORE
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. THE MAIN FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM DIURNAL HEATING AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  WILL REACH 500-700 J/KG WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 8000-8500
FEET. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. 13/JC

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...THE STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS THE GENERAL FCST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING JUST
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE
TIMES OF THE DAY (AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) AND LESS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A CONTINUED MARGINAL THREAT OF A FEW
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS (ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY) WITH LARGE
HAIL REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 70S (COASTAL)
TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S (INLAND). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. 12/DS

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DROPS SOUTH. WITH THIS RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...COOLING TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 12/DS

AVIATION...30/12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/JC

MARINE....A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  58  78  63  78 /  30  10  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   79  61  77  64  77 /  30  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      76  63  73  66  74 /  30  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   82  55  81  60  80 /  40  10  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  79  55  80  59  80 /  40  10  20  20  20
CAMDEN      80  55  79  59  78 /  60  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   82  55  79  62  79 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 301157
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
657 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD IN THESE
AREAS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEREFORE
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. THE MAIN FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM DIURNAL HEATING AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  WILL REACH 500-700 J/KG WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 8000-8500
FEET. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. 13/JC

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...THE STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS THE GENERAL FCST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING JUST
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE
TIMES OF THE DAY (AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) AND LESS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A CONTINUED MARGINAL THREAT OF A FEW
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS (ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY) WITH LARGE
HAIL REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 70S (COASTAL)
TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S (INLAND). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. 12/DS

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DROPS SOUTH. WITH THIS RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...COOLING TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 12/DS

AVIATION...30/12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/JC

MARINE....A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  58  78  63  78 /  30  10  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   79  61  77  64  77 /  30  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      76  63  73  66  74 /  30  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   82  55  81  60  80 /  40  10  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  79  55  80  59  80 /  40  10  20  20  20
CAMDEN      80  55  79  59  78 /  60  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   82  55  79  62  79 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 301157
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
657 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD IN THESE
AREAS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEREFORE
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. THE MAIN FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM DIURNAL HEATING AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  WILL REACH 500-700 J/KG WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 8000-8500
FEET. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. 13/JC

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...THE STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS THE GENERAL FCST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING JUST
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE
TIMES OF THE DAY (AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) AND LESS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A CONTINUED MARGINAL THREAT OF A FEW
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS (ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY) WITH LARGE
HAIL REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 70S (COASTAL)
TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S (INLAND). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. 12/DS

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DROPS SOUTH. WITH THIS RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...COOLING TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 12/DS

AVIATION...30/12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/JC

MARINE....A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  58  78  63  78 /  30  10  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   79  61  77  64  77 /  30  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      76  63  73  66  74 /  30  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   82  55  81  60  80 /  40  10  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  79  55  80  59  80 /  40  10  20  20  20
CAMDEN      80  55  79  59  78 /  60  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   82  55  79  62  79 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301144
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301144
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301144
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301144
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301144
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301144
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  45  73  51 /  30  10  30  30
SHOALS        69  43  74  52 /  20  10  30  30
VINEMONT      66  43  71  51 /  30  10  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  65  40  71  50 /  20  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  41  69  50 /  40  10  30  30
FORT PAYNE    66  39  70  47 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  45  73  51 /  30  10  30  30
SHOALS        69  43  74  52 /  20  10  30  30
VINEMONT      66  43  71  51 /  30  10  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  65  40  71  50 /  20  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  41  69  50 /  40  10  30  30
FORT PAYNE    66  39  70  47 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  45  73  51 /  30  10  30  30
SHOALS        69  43  74  52 /  20  10  30  30
VINEMONT      66  43  71  51 /  30  10  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  65  40  71  50 /  20  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  41  69  50 /  40  10  30  30
FORT PAYNE    66  39  70  47 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  45  73  51 /  30  10  30  30
SHOALS        69  43  74  52 /  20  10  30  30
VINEMONT      66  43  71  51 /  30  10  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  65  40  71  50 /  20  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  41  69  50 /  40  10  30  30
FORT PAYNE    66  39  70  47 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  45  73  51 /  30  10  30  30
SHOALS        69  43  74  52 /  20  10  30  30
VINEMONT      66  43  71  51 /  30  10  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  65  40  71  50 /  20  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  41  69  50 /  40  10  30  30
FORT PAYNE    66  39  70  47 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  45  73  51 /  30  10  30  30
SHOALS        69  43  74  52 /  20  10  30  30
VINEMONT      66  43  71  51 /  30  10  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  65  40  71  50 /  20  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  41  69  50 /  40  10  30  30
FORT PAYNE    66  39  70  47 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 301034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEREFORE
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. THE MAIN FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM DIURNAL HEATING AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  WILL REACH 500-700 J/KG WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 8000-8500
FEET. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. 13/JC

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...THE STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS THE GENERAL FCST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING JUST
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE
TIMES OF THE DAY (AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) AND LESS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A CONTINUED MARGINAL THREAT OF A FEW
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS (ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY) WITH LARGE
HAIL REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 70S (COASTAL)
TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S (INLAND). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DROPS SOUTH. WITH THIS RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...COOLING TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE....A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  58  78  63  78 /  30  10  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   79  61  77  64  77 /  30  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      76  63  73  66  74 /  30  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   82  55  81  60  80 /  40  10  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  79  55  80  59  80 /  30  10  20  20  20
CAMDEN      80  55  79  59  78 /  50  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   82  55  79  62  79 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 301034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEREFORE
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. THE MAIN FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM DIURNAL HEATING AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  WILL REACH 500-700 J/KG WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 8000-8500
FEET. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. 13/JC

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...THE STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS THE GENERAL FCST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING JUST
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE
TIMES OF THE DAY (AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) AND LESS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A CONTINUED MARGINAL THREAT OF A FEW
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS (ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY) WITH LARGE
HAIL REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 70S (COASTAL)
TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S (INLAND). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DROPS SOUTH. WITH THIS RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...COOLING TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE....A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  58  78  63  78 /  30  10  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   79  61  77  64  77 /  30  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      76  63  73  66  74 /  30  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   82  55  81  60  80 /  40  10  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  79  55  80  59  80 /  30  10  20  20  20
CAMDEN      80  55  79  59  78 /  50  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   82  55  79  62  79 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 301034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEREFORE
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. THE MAIN FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM DIURNAL HEATING AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  WILL REACH 500-700 J/KG WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 8000-8500
FEET. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. 13/JC

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...THE STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS THE GENERAL FCST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING JUST
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE
TIMES OF THE DAY (AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) AND LESS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A CONTINUED MARGINAL THREAT OF A FEW
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS (ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY) WITH LARGE
HAIL REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 70S (COASTAL)
TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S (INLAND). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DROPS SOUTH. WITH THIS RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...COOLING TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE....A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  58  78  63  78 /  30  10  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   79  61  77  64  77 /  30  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      76  63  73  66  74 /  30  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   82  55  81  60  80 /  40  10  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  79  55  80  59  80 /  30  10  20  20  20
CAMDEN      80  55  79  59  78 /  50  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   82  55  79  62  79 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 301034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEREFORE
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. THE MAIN FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM DIURNAL HEATING AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  WILL REACH 500-700 J/KG WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 8000-8500
FEET. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. 13/JC

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...THE STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS THE GENERAL FCST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING JUST
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE
TIMES OF THE DAY (AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) AND LESS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A CONTINUED MARGINAL THREAT OF A FEW
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS (ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY) WITH LARGE
HAIL REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 70S (COASTAL)
TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S (INLAND). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DROPS SOUTH. WITH THIS RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...COOLING TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE....A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  58  78  63  78 /  30  10  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   79  61  77  64  77 /  30  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      76  63  73  66  74 /  30  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   82  55  81  60  80 /  40  10  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  79  55  80  59  80 /  30  10  20  20  20
CAMDEN      80  55  79  59  78 /  50  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   82  55  79  62  79 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 301034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEREFORE
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. THE MAIN FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM DIURNAL HEATING AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  WILL REACH 500-700 J/KG WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 8000-8500
FEET. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. 13/JC

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...THE STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS THE GENERAL FCST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING JUST
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE
TIMES OF THE DAY (AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) AND LESS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A CONTINUED MARGINAL THREAT OF A FEW
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS (ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY) WITH LARGE
HAIL REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 70S (COASTAL)
TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S (INLAND). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DROPS SOUTH. WITH THIS RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...COOLING TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE....A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  58  78  63  78 /  30  10  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   79  61  77  64  77 /  30  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      76  63  73  66  74 /  30  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   82  55  81  60  80 /  40  10  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  79  55  80  59  80 /  30  10  20  20  20
CAMDEN      80  55  79  59  78 /  50  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   82  55  79  62  79 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 301034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEREFORE
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. THE MAIN FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM DIURNAL HEATING AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  WILL REACH 500-700 J/KG WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 8000-8500
FEET. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. 13/JC

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...THE STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS THE GENERAL FCST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING JUST
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE
TIMES OF THE DAY (AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) AND LESS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A CONTINUED MARGINAL THREAT OF A FEW
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS (ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY) WITH LARGE
HAIL REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 70S (COASTAL)
TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S (INLAND). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DROPS SOUTH. WITH THIS RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...COOLING TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE....A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  58  78  63  78 /  30  10  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   79  61  77  64  77 /  30  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      76  63  73  66  74 /  30  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   82  55  81  60  80 /  40  10  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  79  55  80  59  80 /  30  10  20  20  20
CAMDEN      80  55  79  59  78 /  50  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   82  55  79  62  79 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300916
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  60  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  70  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      71  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  60  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  60  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  60  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 300916
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  60  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  70  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      71  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  60  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  60  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  60  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300916
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  60  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  70  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      71  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  60  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  60  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  60  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 300916
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  60  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  70  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      71  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  60  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  60  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  60  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300500
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
30.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD THOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND FOG
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...THE OVERALL FORECAST TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WEST AND
NORTH TX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK/SOUTHEAST KS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL EXTEND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY
ENHANCED BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE
SEABREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
30-40 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AND UPPER FORCING RATHER WEAK...ENOUGH BUOYANCY ALONG THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH FAIRLY LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7500-9500 FT AGL AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7-7.5 C/KM...A FEW STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE
LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. WE HAVE
UPDATED THE HWO TO ADD MENTION OF THE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300500
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
30.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD THOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND FOG
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...THE OVERALL FORECAST TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WEST AND
NORTH TX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK/SOUTHEAST KS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL EXTEND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY
ENHANCED BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE
SEABREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
30-40 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AND UPPER FORCING RATHER WEAK...ENOUGH BUOYANCY ALONG THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH FAIRLY LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7500-9500 FT AGL AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7-7.5 C/KM...A FEW STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE
LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. WE HAVE
UPDATED THE HWO TO ADD MENTION OF THE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300500
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
30.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD THOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND FOG
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...THE OVERALL FORECAST TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WEST AND
NORTH TX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK/SOUTHEAST KS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL EXTEND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY
ENHANCED BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE
SEABREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
30-40 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AND UPPER FORCING RATHER WEAK...ENOUGH BUOYANCY ALONG THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH FAIRLY LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7500-9500 FT AGL AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7-7.5 C/KM...A FEW STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE
LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. WE HAVE
UPDATED THE HWO TO ADD MENTION OF THE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 300459
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300459
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 300459
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300459
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300457 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT. ATTM THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER NRN TX
THRU NW MO AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT TO DO
WITH POPS THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN
OVER MY CWA WILL BE ARND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR MY WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY A 50KT 8H JET. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX
OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. TIME SECTIONS ARE ONLY
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING -SHRA FOR THE MRNG HOURS. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT BY
MONDAY AFTN WITH CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER DUE TO RETURN FLOW MAY HAVE SOME WAA PCPN ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
...IS STILL FAIRLY TRICKY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. ATTM THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE BROAD BRUSHING THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS.

FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A STALLED CDFNT OVER KY/TN BY 12Z. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG THE CDFNT WHICH WILL DRAG THE
CDFNT THRU THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MRNG AS IT MOVES EAST.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT -SHRA SATURDAY MRNG...SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300457 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT. ATTM THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER NRN TX
THRU NW MO AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT TO DO
WITH POPS THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN
OVER MY CWA WILL BE ARND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR MY WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY A 50KT 8H JET. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX
OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. TIME SECTIONS ARE ONLY
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING -SHRA FOR THE MRNG HOURS. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT BY
MONDAY AFTN WITH CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER DUE TO RETURN FLOW MAY HAVE SOME WAA PCPN ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
...IS STILL FAIRLY TRICKY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. ATTM THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE BROAD BRUSHING THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS.

FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A STALLED CDFNT OVER KY/TN BY 12Z. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG THE CDFNT WHICH WILL DRAG THE
CDFNT THRU THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MRNG AS IT MOVES EAST.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT -SHRA SATURDAY MRNG...SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300457 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT. ATTM THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER NRN TX
THRU NW MO AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT TO DO
WITH POPS THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN
OVER MY CWA WILL BE ARND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR MY WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY A 50KT 8H JET. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX
OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. TIME SECTIONS ARE ONLY
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING -SHRA FOR THE MRNG HOURS. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT BY
MONDAY AFTN WITH CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER DUE TO RETURN FLOW MAY HAVE SOME WAA PCPN ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
...IS STILL FAIRLY TRICKY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. ATTM THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE BROAD BRUSHING THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS.

FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A STALLED CDFNT OVER KY/TN BY 12Z. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG THE CDFNT WHICH WILL DRAG THE
CDFNT THRU THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MRNG AS IT MOVES EAST.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT -SHRA SATURDAY MRNG...SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300457 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT. ATTM THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER NRN TX
THRU NW MO AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT TO DO
WITH POPS THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN
OVER MY CWA WILL BE ARND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR MY WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY A 50KT 8H JET. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX
OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. TIME SECTIONS ARE ONLY
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING -SHRA FOR THE MRNG HOURS. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT BY
MONDAY AFTN WITH CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER DUE TO RETURN FLOW MAY HAVE SOME WAA PCPN ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
...IS STILL FAIRLY TRICKY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. ATTM THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE BROAD BRUSHING THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS.

FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A STALLED CDFNT OVER KY/TN BY 12Z. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG THE CDFNT WHICH WILL DRAG THE
CDFNT THRU THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MRNG AS IT MOVES EAST.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT -SHRA SATURDAY MRNG...SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300457 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT. ATTM THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER NRN TX
THRU NW MO AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT TO DO
WITH POPS THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN
OVER MY CWA WILL BE ARND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR MY WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY A 50KT 8H JET. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX
OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. TIME SECTIONS ARE ONLY
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING -SHRA FOR THE MRNG HOURS. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT BY
MONDAY AFTN WITH CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER DUE TO RETURN FLOW MAY HAVE SOME WAA PCPN ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
...IS STILL FAIRLY TRICKY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. ATTM THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE BROAD BRUSHING THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS.

FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A STALLED CDFNT OVER KY/TN BY 12Z. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG THE CDFNT WHICH WILL DRAG THE
CDFNT THRU THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MRNG AS IT MOVES EAST.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT -SHRA SATURDAY MRNG...SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300457 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT. ATTM THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER NRN TX
THRU NW MO AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT TO DO
WITH POPS THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN
OVER MY CWA WILL BE ARND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR MY WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY A 50KT 8H JET. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX
OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. TIME SECTIONS ARE ONLY
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING -SHRA FOR THE MRNG HOURS. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT BY
MONDAY AFTN WITH CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER DUE TO RETURN FLOW MAY HAVE SOME WAA PCPN ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
...IS STILL FAIRLY TRICKY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. ATTM THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE BROAD BRUSHING THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS.

FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A STALLED CDFNT OVER KY/TN BY 12Z. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG THE CDFNT WHICH WILL DRAG THE
CDFNT THRU THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MRNG AS IT MOVES EAST.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT -SHRA SATURDAY MRNG...SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 300233
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
933 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300233
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
933 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 300233
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
933 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300233
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
933 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300226 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
926 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE OVERALL FORECAST TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WEST AND
NORTH TX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK/SOUTHEAST KS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL EXTEND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY
ENHANCED BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE
SEABREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
30-40 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AND UPPER FORCING RATHER WEAK...ENOUGH BUOYANCY ALONG THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH FAIRLY LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7500-9500 FT AGL AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7-7.5 C/KM...A FEW STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE
LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. WE HAVE
UPDATED THE HWO TO ADD MENTION OF THE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
30.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
PATCHY REGIONS OF BROKEN MVFR TO VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP NEAR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN WEST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND DAMPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH
MON...LEADING TO BETTER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON MON FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THE MON COMBINED WITH
DECENT VERTICAL SHEAR EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S OVER WESTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOB. HIGHS ON MON
WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACKING TO THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SEMI-ZONAL BY TUESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS RESULTS IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO 750-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME AREAS TUESDAY EVENING DUE
TO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SEMI ZONAL
FLOW...APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY VALUES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
34/JFB

AVIATION...
29/18Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
30.18Z. LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHIFTING...DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE MON
MORNING THROUGH MON EVENING. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300226 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
926 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE OVERALL FORECAST TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WEST AND
NORTH TX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK/SOUTHEAST KS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL EXTEND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY
ENHANCED BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE
SEABREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
30-40 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AND UPPER FORCING RATHER WEAK...ENOUGH BUOYANCY ALONG THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH FAIRLY LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7500-9500 FT AGL AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7-7.5 C/KM...A FEW STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE
LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. WE HAVE
UPDATED THE HWO TO ADD MENTION OF THE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
30.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
PATCHY REGIONS OF BROKEN MVFR TO VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP NEAR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN WEST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND DAMPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH
MON...LEADING TO BETTER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON MON FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THE MON COMBINED WITH
DECENT VERTICAL SHEAR EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S OVER WESTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOB. HIGHS ON MON
WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACKING TO THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SEMI-ZONAL BY TUESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS RESULTS IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO 750-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME AREAS TUESDAY EVENING DUE
TO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SEMI ZONAL
FLOW...APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY VALUES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
34/JFB

AVIATION...
29/18Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
30.18Z. LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHIFTING...DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE MON
MORNING THROUGH MON EVENING. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300226 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
926 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE OVERALL FORECAST TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WEST AND
NORTH TX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK/SOUTHEAST KS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL EXTEND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY
ENHANCED BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE
SEABREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
30-40 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AND UPPER FORCING RATHER WEAK...ENOUGH BUOYANCY ALONG THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH FAIRLY LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7500-9500 FT AGL AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7-7.5 C/KM...A FEW STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE
LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. WE HAVE
UPDATED THE HWO TO ADD MENTION OF THE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
30.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
PATCHY REGIONS OF BROKEN MVFR TO VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP NEAR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN WEST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND DAMPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH
MON...LEADING TO BETTER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON MON FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THE MON COMBINED WITH
DECENT VERTICAL SHEAR EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S OVER WESTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOB. HIGHS ON MON
WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACKING TO THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SEMI-ZONAL BY TUESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS RESULTS IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO 750-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME AREAS TUESDAY EVENING DUE
TO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SEMI ZONAL
FLOW...APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY VALUES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
34/JFB

AVIATION...
29/18Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
30.18Z. LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHIFTING...DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE MON
MORNING THROUGH MON EVENING. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300226 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
926 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE OVERALL FORECAST TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WEST AND
NORTH TX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK/SOUTHEAST KS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL EXTEND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY
ENHANCED BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE
SEABREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
30-40 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AND UPPER FORCING RATHER WEAK...ENOUGH BUOYANCY ALONG THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH FAIRLY LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7500-9500 FT AGL AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7-7.5 C/KM...A FEW STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE
LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. WE HAVE
UPDATED THE HWO TO ADD MENTION OF THE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
30.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
PATCHY REGIONS OF BROKEN MVFR TO VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP NEAR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN WEST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND DAMPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH
MON...LEADING TO BETTER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON MON FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THE MON COMBINED WITH
DECENT VERTICAL SHEAR EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S OVER WESTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOB. HIGHS ON MON
WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACKING TO THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SEMI-ZONAL BY TUESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS RESULTS IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO 750-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME AREAS TUESDAY EVENING DUE
TO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SEMI ZONAL
FLOW...APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY VALUES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
34/JFB

AVIATION...
29/18Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
30.18Z. LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHIFTING...DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE MON
MORNING THROUGH MON EVENING. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300029
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
729 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
30.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
PATCHY REGIONS OF BROKEN MVFR TO VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP NEAR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN WEST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND DAMPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH
MON...LEADING TO BETTER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON MON FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THE MON COMBINED WITH
DECENT VERTICAL SHEAR EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S OVER WESTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOB. HIGHS ON MON
WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACKING TO THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SEMI-ZONAL BY TUESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS RESULTS IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO 750-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME AREAS TUESDAY EVENING DUE
TO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SEMI ZONAL
FLOW...APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY VALUES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
34/JFB

AVIATION...
29/18Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
30.18Z. LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHIFTING...DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE MON
MORNING THROUGH MON EVENING. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300029
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
729 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
30.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
PATCHY REGIONS OF BROKEN MVFR TO VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP NEAR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN WEST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND DAMPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH
MON...LEADING TO BETTER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON MON FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THE MON COMBINED WITH
DECENT VERTICAL SHEAR EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S OVER WESTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOB. HIGHS ON MON
WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACKING TO THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SEMI-ZONAL BY TUESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS RESULTS IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO 750-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME AREAS TUESDAY EVENING DUE
TO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SEMI ZONAL
FLOW...APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY VALUES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
34/JFB

AVIATION...
29/18Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
30.18Z. LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHIFTING...DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE MON
MORNING THROUGH MON EVENING. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300029
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
729 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
30.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
PATCHY REGIONS OF BROKEN MVFR TO VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP NEAR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN WEST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND DAMPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH
MON...LEADING TO BETTER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON MON FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THE MON COMBINED WITH
DECENT VERTICAL SHEAR EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S OVER WESTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOB. HIGHS ON MON
WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACKING TO THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SEMI-ZONAL BY TUESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS RESULTS IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO 750-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME AREAS TUESDAY EVENING DUE
TO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SEMI ZONAL
FLOW...APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY VALUES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
34/JFB

AVIATION...
29/18Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
30.18Z. LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHIFTING...DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE MON
MORNING THROUGH MON EVENING. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300029
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
729 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
30.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
PATCHY REGIONS OF BROKEN MVFR TO VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP NEAR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN WEST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND DAMPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH
MON...LEADING TO BETTER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON MON FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THE MON COMBINED WITH
DECENT VERTICAL SHEAR EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S OVER WESTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOB. HIGHS ON MON
WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACKING TO THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SEMI-ZONAL BY TUESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS RESULTS IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO 750-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME AREAS TUESDAY EVENING DUE
TO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SEMI ZONAL
FLOW...APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY VALUES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
34/JFB

AVIATION...
29/18Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
30.18Z. LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHIFTING...DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE MON
MORNING THROUGH MON EVENING. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300029
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
729 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
30.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
PATCHY REGIONS OF BROKEN MVFR TO VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP NEAR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN WEST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND DAMPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH
MON...LEADING TO BETTER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON MON FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THE MON COMBINED WITH
DECENT VERTICAL SHEAR EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S OVER WESTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOB. HIGHS ON MON
WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACKING TO THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SEMI-ZONAL BY TUESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS RESULTS IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO 750-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME AREAS TUESDAY EVENING DUE
TO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SEMI ZONAL
FLOW...APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY VALUES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
34/JFB

AVIATION...
29/18Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
30.18Z. LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHIFTING...DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE MON
MORNING THROUGH MON EVENING. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300029
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
729 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
30.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
PATCHY REGIONS OF BROKEN MVFR TO VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP NEAR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN WEST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND DAMPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH
MON...LEADING TO BETTER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON MON FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THE MON COMBINED WITH
DECENT VERTICAL SHEAR EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S OVER WESTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMOB. HIGHS ON MON
WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACKING TO THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SEMI-ZONAL BY TUESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS RESULTS IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO 750-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME AREAS TUESDAY EVENING DUE
TO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SEMI ZONAL
FLOW...APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY VALUES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
34/JFB

AVIATION...
29/18Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
30.18Z. LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHIFTING...DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE MON
MORNING THROUGH MON EVENING. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300012
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
712 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300012
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
712 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 300012
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
712 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300012
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
712 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 292322 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
622 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT. ATTM THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER NRN TX
THRU NW MO AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT TO DO
WITH POPS THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN
OVER MY CWA WILL BE ARND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR MY WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY A 50KT 8H JET. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX
OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. TIME SECTIONS ARE ONLY
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING -SHRA FOR THE MRNG HOURS. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT BY
MONDAY AFTN WITH CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER DUE TO RETURN FLOW MAY HAVE SOME WAA PCPN ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
...IS STILL FAIRLY TRICKY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. ATTM THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE BROAD BRUSHING THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS.

FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A STALLED CDFNT OVER KY/TN BY 12Z. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG THE CDFNT WHICH WILL DRAG THE
CDFNT THRU THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MRNG AS IT MOVES EAST.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT -SHRA SATURDAY MRNG...SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...INITIAL CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT HSV
AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 07Z...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS LESS THAN 2KFT QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL SITES. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
PREDOMINANT 5SM SHRA AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 10Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
PROGGED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MSL BETWEEN 09Z-10Z
AND AT HSV BY AROUND 10Z. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL
IMPROVE CEILINGS TO THE VFR CATEGORY WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z AT MSL
AND 16Z AT HSV.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 292322 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
622 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT. ATTM THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER NRN TX
THRU NW MO AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT TO DO
WITH POPS THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN
OVER MY CWA WILL BE ARND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR MY WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY A 50KT 8H JET. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX
OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. TIME SECTIONS ARE ONLY
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING -SHRA FOR THE MRNG HOURS. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT BY
MONDAY AFTN WITH CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER DUE TO RETURN FLOW MAY HAVE SOME WAA PCPN ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
...IS STILL FAIRLY TRICKY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. ATTM THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE BROAD BRUSHING THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS.

FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A STALLED CDFNT OVER KY/TN BY 12Z. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG THE CDFNT WHICH WILL DRAG THE
CDFNT THRU THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MRNG AS IT MOVES EAST.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT -SHRA SATURDAY MRNG...SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...INITIAL CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT HSV
AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 07Z...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS LESS THAN 2KFT QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL SITES. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
PREDOMINANT 5SM SHRA AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 10Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
PROGGED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MSL BETWEEN 09Z-10Z
AND AT HSV BY AROUND 10Z. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL
IMPROVE CEILINGS TO THE VFR CATEGORY WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z AT MSL
AND 16Z AT HSV.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 292322 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
622 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT. ATTM THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER NRN TX
THRU NW MO AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT TO DO
WITH POPS THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN
OVER MY CWA WILL BE ARND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR MY WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY A 50KT 8H JET. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX
OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. TIME SECTIONS ARE ONLY
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING -SHRA FOR THE MRNG HOURS. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT BY
MONDAY AFTN WITH CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER DUE TO RETURN FLOW MAY HAVE SOME WAA PCPN ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
...IS STILL FAIRLY TRICKY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. ATTM THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE BROAD BRUSHING THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS.

FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A STALLED CDFNT OVER KY/TN BY 12Z. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG THE CDFNT WHICH WILL DRAG THE
CDFNT THRU THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MRNG AS IT MOVES EAST.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT -SHRA SATURDAY MRNG...SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...INITIAL CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT HSV
AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 07Z...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS LESS THAN 2KFT QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL SITES. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
PREDOMINANT 5SM SHRA AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 10Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
PROGGED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MSL BETWEEN 09Z-10Z
AND AT HSV BY AROUND 10Z. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL
IMPROVE CEILINGS TO THE VFR CATEGORY WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z AT MSL
AND 16Z AT HSV.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 292322 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
622 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT. ATTM THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER NRN TX
THRU NW MO AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT TO DO
WITH POPS THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN
OVER MY CWA WILL BE ARND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR MY WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY A 50KT 8H JET. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX
OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. TIME SECTIONS ARE ONLY
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING -SHRA FOR THE MRNG HOURS. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT BY
MONDAY AFTN WITH CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER DUE TO RETURN FLOW MAY HAVE SOME WAA PCPN ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
...IS STILL FAIRLY TRICKY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. ATTM THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE BROAD BRUSHING THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS.

FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A STALLED CDFNT OVER KY/TN BY 12Z. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG THE CDFNT WHICH WILL DRAG THE
CDFNT THRU THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MRNG AS IT MOVES EAST.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT -SHRA SATURDAY MRNG...SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...INITIAL CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT HSV
AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 07Z...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS LESS THAN 2KFT QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL SITES. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
PREDOMINANT 5SM SHRA AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 10Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
PROGGED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MSL BETWEEN 09Z-10Z
AND AT HSV BY AROUND 10Z. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL
IMPROVE CEILINGS TO THE VFR CATEGORY WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z AT MSL
AND 16Z AT HSV.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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