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000
FXUS64 KHUN 280817
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
317 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST...BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM.

OTHERWISE CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM WITH
ONLY SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF I65. THE CDFNT
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WITH CLEARING
SKIES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE (MID/UPPER 80S) HOWEVER
THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S BY THE AFTN. A MUCH LESS
HUMID DAY.

THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THRU THURSDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS THRU THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/ARND 60. WEDNESDAY MRNG LOOKS
TO BE THE COOLEST MRNG WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S...NOT BAD FOR THE
END OF JULY IN AL. THERE COULD BE A FLY IN THE OINTMENT ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW MAY EFFECT THE CWA...IF GFS IS
CORRECT. ECMWF KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF ALSO HINTS AT KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THRU NEXT
WEEKEND...WHERE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THE CHC OF PCPN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE EXTENDED FCST ATTM.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSTMS IS APPROACHING NORTHERN AL
CURRENTLY. VCSH LIKELY AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU ~0800-0900Z.
HOWEVER, WILL NOT INCLUDE CIG/VIS IMPACTS AT TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SCT COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IF A HVY PRECIP CORE AFFECTED EITHER TAF
SITE...BRIEF IFR/MVFR VIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WSHFT ASSOC/W A CDFNT
FROPA WILL TAKE PLACE AT KMSL/KHSV ARND 08-09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AFTER 14-15Z...THEN ABATE BY 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    86  63  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        88  62  83  57 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      87  63  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  86  62  81  56 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   87  62  81  57 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    86  61  81  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280817
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
317 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST...BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM.

OTHERWISE CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM WITH
ONLY SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF I65. THE CDFNT
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WITH CLEARING
SKIES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE (MID/UPPER 80S) HOWEVER
THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S BY THE AFTN. A MUCH LESS
HUMID DAY.

THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THRU THURSDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS THRU THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/ARND 60. WEDNESDAY MRNG LOOKS
TO BE THE COOLEST MRNG WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S...NOT BAD FOR THE
END OF JULY IN AL. THERE COULD BE A FLY IN THE OINTMENT ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW MAY EFFECT THE CWA...IF GFS IS
CORRECT. ECMWF KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF ALSO HINTS AT KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THRU NEXT
WEEKEND...WHERE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THE CHC OF PCPN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE EXTENDED FCST ATTM.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSTMS IS APPROACHING NORTHERN AL
CURRENTLY. VCSH LIKELY AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU ~0800-0900Z.
HOWEVER, WILL NOT INCLUDE CIG/VIS IMPACTS AT TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SCT COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IF A HVY PRECIP CORE AFFECTED EITHER TAF
SITE...BRIEF IFR/MVFR VIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WSHFT ASSOC/W A CDFNT
FROPA WILL TAKE PLACE AT KMSL/KHSV ARND 08-09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AFTER 14-15Z...THEN ABATE BY 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    86  63  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        88  62  83  57 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      87  63  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  86  62  81  56 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   87  62  81  57 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    86  61  81  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 280537 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF A CDFNT MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FRONT IS NEARING THE KY/TN BORDER. SFC CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOC/W THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY/LIFT PROVIDED BY A DIGGING MID-LVL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SHOWER/STORM PRODUCTION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC SOLAR HEATING HAS NOW CEASED, CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE W-SW WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE
TO FEED INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE LATEST HRRR/RAP MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO AND
POPS WERE INCREASED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL LIMIT
OF DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW...AND POPS WERE LOWERED JUST A LITTLE FOR
FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE PARCELS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF BUOYANCY
ONCE ALOFT...WITH ML CAPES ~2-3 KJ/KG AND MUCAPES ~3-4 KJ/KG. SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO A MID-LVL JET
MAX...AND MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IN SOUTHERN
TN AND NERN AL. DMG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT,
ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND VERY FREQUENT LTG WOULD ACCOMPANY THOSE
STORMS. DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT MID-LVL CAP ~750 MB, STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE CONFINED TO A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE LATEST TIMING ESTIMATE PLACES STORMS IN OUR TN COUNTIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT-1 AM, IN HUNTSVILLE/SHOALS/SCOTTSBORO AROUND 1-2 AM
AND CULLMAN/ALBERTVILLE BY ABOUT 3-4 AM CDT.

UPDATES OUT MOMENTARILY.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSTMS IS APPROACHING NORTHERN AL
CURRENTLY. VCSH LIKELY AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU ~0800-0900Z.
HOWEVER, WILL NOT INCLUDE CIG/VIS IMPACTS AT TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SCTD COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IF A HVY PRECIP CORE AFFECTED EITHER TAF
SITE...BRIEF IFR/MVFR VIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WSHFT ASSOC/W A CDFNT
FROPA WILL TAKE PLACE AT KMSL/KHSV ARND 08-09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AFTER 14-15Z...THEN ABATE BY 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280537 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF A CDFNT MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FRONT IS NEARING THE KY/TN BORDER. SFC CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOC/W THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY/LIFT PROVIDED BY A DIGGING MID-LVL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SHOWER/STORM PRODUCTION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC SOLAR HEATING HAS NOW CEASED, CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE W-SW WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE
TO FEED INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE LATEST HRRR/RAP MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO AND
POPS WERE INCREASED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL LIMIT
OF DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW...AND POPS WERE LOWERED JUST A LITTLE FOR
FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE PARCELS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF BUOYANCY
ONCE ALOFT...WITH ML CAPES ~2-3 KJ/KG AND MUCAPES ~3-4 KJ/KG. SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO A MID-LVL JET
MAX...AND MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IN SOUTHERN
TN AND NERN AL. DMG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT,
ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND VERY FREQUENT LTG WOULD ACCOMPANY THOSE
STORMS. DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT MID-LVL CAP ~750 MB, STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE CONFINED TO A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE LATEST TIMING ESTIMATE PLACES STORMS IN OUR TN COUNTIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT-1 AM, IN HUNTSVILLE/SHOALS/SCOTTSBORO AROUND 1-2 AM
AND CULLMAN/ALBERTVILLE BY ABOUT 3-4 AM CDT.

UPDATES OUT MOMENTARILY.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSTMS IS APPROACHING NORTHERN AL
CURRENTLY. VCSH LIKELY AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU ~0800-0900Z.
HOWEVER, WILL NOT INCLUDE CIG/VIS IMPACTS AT TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SCTD COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IF A HVY PRECIP CORE AFFECTED EITHER TAF
SITE...BRIEF IFR/MVFR VIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WSHFT ASSOC/W A CDFNT
FROPA WILL TAKE PLACE AT KMSL/KHSV ARND 08-09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AFTER 14-15Z...THEN ABATE BY 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280537 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF A CDFNT MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FRONT IS NEARING THE KY/TN BORDER. SFC CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOC/W THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY/LIFT PROVIDED BY A DIGGING MID-LVL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SHOWER/STORM PRODUCTION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC SOLAR HEATING HAS NOW CEASED, CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE W-SW WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE
TO FEED INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE LATEST HRRR/RAP MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO AND
POPS WERE INCREASED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL LIMIT
OF DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW...AND POPS WERE LOWERED JUST A LITTLE FOR
FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE PARCELS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF BUOYANCY
ONCE ALOFT...WITH ML CAPES ~2-3 KJ/KG AND MUCAPES ~3-4 KJ/KG. SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO A MID-LVL JET
MAX...AND MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IN SOUTHERN
TN AND NERN AL. DMG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT,
ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND VERY FREQUENT LTG WOULD ACCOMPANY THOSE
STORMS. DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT MID-LVL CAP ~750 MB, STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE CONFINED TO A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE LATEST TIMING ESTIMATE PLACES STORMS IN OUR TN COUNTIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT-1 AM, IN HUNTSVILLE/SHOALS/SCOTTSBORO AROUND 1-2 AM
AND CULLMAN/ALBERTVILLE BY ABOUT 3-4 AM CDT.

UPDATES OUT MOMENTARILY.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSTMS IS APPROACHING NORTHERN AL
CURRENTLY. VCSH LIKELY AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU ~0800-0900Z.
HOWEVER, WILL NOT INCLUDE CIG/VIS IMPACTS AT TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SCTD COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IF A HVY PRECIP CORE AFFECTED EITHER TAF
SITE...BRIEF IFR/MVFR VIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WSHFT ASSOC/W A CDFNT
FROPA WILL TAKE PLACE AT KMSL/KHSV ARND 08-09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AFTER 14-15Z...THEN ABATE BY 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280537 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF A CDFNT MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FRONT IS NEARING THE KY/TN BORDER. SFC CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOC/W THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY/LIFT PROVIDED BY A DIGGING MID-LVL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SHOWER/STORM PRODUCTION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC SOLAR HEATING HAS NOW CEASED, CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE W-SW WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE
TO FEED INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE LATEST HRRR/RAP MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO AND
POPS WERE INCREASED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL LIMIT
OF DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW...AND POPS WERE LOWERED JUST A LITTLE FOR
FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE PARCELS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF BUOYANCY
ONCE ALOFT...WITH ML CAPES ~2-3 KJ/KG AND MUCAPES ~3-4 KJ/KG. SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO A MID-LVL JET
MAX...AND MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IN SOUTHERN
TN AND NERN AL. DMG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT,
ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND VERY FREQUENT LTG WOULD ACCOMPANY THOSE
STORMS. DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT MID-LVL CAP ~750 MB, STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE CONFINED TO A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE LATEST TIMING ESTIMATE PLACES STORMS IN OUR TN COUNTIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT-1 AM, IN HUNTSVILLE/SHOALS/SCOTTSBORO AROUND 1-2 AM
AND CULLMAN/ALBERTVILLE BY ABOUT 3-4 AM CDT.

UPDATES OUT MOMENTARILY.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSTMS IS APPROACHING NORTHERN AL
CURRENTLY. VCSH LIKELY AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU ~0800-0900Z.
HOWEVER, WILL NOT INCLUDE CIG/VIS IMPACTS AT TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SCTD COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IF A HVY PRECIP CORE AFFECTED EITHER TAF
SITE...BRIEF IFR/MVFR VIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WSHFT ASSOC/W A CDFNT
FROPA WILL TAKE PLACE AT KMSL/KHSV ARND 08-09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AFTER 14-15Z...THEN ABATE BY 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 280441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY SHARP SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST...AS
BIG TROUGH IS DIGGING OUR WAY. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR THE KENTUCKY TENNESSEE STATE LINE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER A LARGE PART OF TENNESSEE. THE
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WITH
LESSENING COVERAGE. BUT DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A TAD NORTHEAST.

BULK SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY NEAR 50 KTS WHERE SEVERE IS OCCURRING
DROPS OFF TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER BUOYANT AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE
VERY MOIST. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY
REACH THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT THRESHOLD WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT.

THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE STORM STRENGTH ON MONDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DIURNALLY DEPENDENT. WINDS ALOFT DO INCREASE...SO SOME UP
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE INTO SEGMENTS...SO ISOLATED SEVERE REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST. DID MOVE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA BACK NORTHWARD
A BIT. NOW IT WILL BE ADVERTISED NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DEMOPOLIS TO CLANTON TO ALEXANDER CITY. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. UPDATED FORECAST AND HWO ALREADY
OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR. IN FACT TOI IS ALREADY CLOSE TO MVFR AT THIS TIME.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER SUNRISE. THIS IS A TOUCH SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THAT SAID REMOVED THE TEMPO SHRA FOR THE
NORTH AS THERE JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT MUCH LIFT FOR A
PERSISTENT TIME FRAME NORTH. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THE
NORTH TO SEE ANY RAIN/STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS STATED LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SLOWER AND NOW HAVE IT NEAR A
DYA TO ALX LINE BY 18Z. DID CONTINUE WITH VCTS FOR TOI AND MGM
AFTER 19Z. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL TIMING.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 280423 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1123 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...THE REASONING GIVEN IN PREVIOUS
AVIATION AFD SECTION BELOW HOLDS FOR THE 6 UTC CYCLE...EXCEPT SLOWED
SOUTHERLY MOTION OF APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS BY APPROXIMATELY 1-2
HOURS GIVEN LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL FINE-TUNING
ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  SINCE THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE NOW
INCLUDES 00-06 UTC...SHOWED CONDITIONS TRENDING FROM MVFR (PRIMARILY
DUE TO CIGS) TO VFR DURING THE 2-4 UTC TIME FRAME ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10 CORRIDOR. VFR OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT OF COURSE.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES THIS CYCLE. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW SEA-BREEZE
HAS PROGRESSED INTO SE MS AND SW AL COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A DEEPER
INLAND PENETRATION OBSERVED OVER THE NW FL PANHANDLE. THERE ARE A
FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WANE CURRENTLY WITH FEW-SCT CU AROUND
N OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT. CU/AC DEBRIS CLOUDS SEEN ADVECTING SWWD
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES....THIS
WILL BE TEMPORARY FOR THOSE LOCATION - JUST `PASSING` CLOUDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES STABILIZING AND NET MASS FLUX
LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMPUTED AND WITH NICE CONSISTENT RESPONSE
IN CU FIELD AHEAD OF SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THUS...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FALL TO 2-5% AND ONLY THROUGH MAINLY 9 PM.
OTRW...SOME CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING SWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD LAYER HAS NOW MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 84.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IN STORE AS MIN TEMPS ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 80 DEG(F) ALONG THE COAST AND THIS RANGES TO MID 70S WELL
INLAND. THIS WILL  BE THE LAST UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR A WHILE! NO
CHANGES MADE TO TEMP AND POP FORECAST IN ZONES.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HAVE ANALYZED
PATTERN...INGREDIENTS AND PROCESSES AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT`S
ASSESSMENT OF TOMORROW AFTERNOONS THREAT OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT STRONG
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE (SUPPORTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS STRONGLY). THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
GIVEN REASONING...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS ARENA AND GRAPHICAST
WAS JUST SENT TO DEPICT LATEST TIMING AND WITH IMPACT STATEMENTS
INCLUDED. /23 JMM

AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...FIRST PART OF FORECAST IS ONE
PERSISTENCE AS RIDGE PREVAILS AND AREA REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SFC WSW
TO SW WIND FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS. AS COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...EXPECT STRONG SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN A
LINE... TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE SWD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM AND MOVE THROUGH INTERIOR TERMINALS DURING THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE REALLY INCREASES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 3-6 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CLEAR COASTAL TERMINAL SITES BY 7 PM. SO...IN THE
28/21-29/00 UTC PERIOD...MOSTLY MVRF CONDITIONS IN THUNDER BUT SOME
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN CONTINENTAL
ORIGIN OF AIR ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT HIGHER BASES AT FIRST
AND THEN AS SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVAPORATIVELY COOLS AND MOISTENS WILL
SEE THOSE `TEMPO` IFR CONDITIONS IN LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN...GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST SHOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.
WIND VRBL DURING THIS PERIOD OF THUNDER.  UP TO 1" DIAMETER HAIL MAY
FALL ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS.  /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  77  93  71  90 /  20  10  50  40  05
PENSACOLA   92  80  90  74  92 /  20  10  50  40  05
DESTIN      90  79  87  75  91 /  20  10  50  40  05
EVERGREEN   97  75  94  67  90 /  10  10  50  20  00
WAYNESBORO  97  75  94  66  89 /  10  10  50  10  00
CAMDEN      98  75  94  66  89 /  10  10  50  10  00
CRESTVIEW   96  75  95  69  92 /  20  10  50  40  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 280423 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1123 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...THE REASONING GIVEN IN PREVIOUS
AVIATION AFD SECTION BELOW HOLDS FOR THE 6 UTC CYCLE...EXCEPT SLOWED
SOUTHERLY MOTION OF APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS BY APPROXIMATELY 1-2
HOURS GIVEN LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL FINE-TUNING
ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  SINCE THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE NOW
INCLUDES 00-06 UTC...SHOWED CONDITIONS TRENDING FROM MVFR (PRIMARILY
DUE TO CIGS) TO VFR DURING THE 2-4 UTC TIME FRAME ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10 CORRIDOR. VFR OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT OF COURSE.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES THIS CYCLE. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW SEA-BREEZE
HAS PROGRESSED INTO SE MS AND SW AL COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A DEEPER
INLAND PENETRATION OBSERVED OVER THE NW FL PANHANDLE. THERE ARE A
FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WANE CURRENTLY WITH FEW-SCT CU AROUND
N OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT. CU/AC DEBRIS CLOUDS SEEN ADVECTING SWWD
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES....THIS
WILL BE TEMPORARY FOR THOSE LOCATION - JUST `PASSING` CLOUDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES STABILIZING AND NET MASS FLUX
LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMPUTED AND WITH NICE CONSISTENT RESPONSE
IN CU FIELD AHEAD OF SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THUS...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FALL TO 2-5% AND ONLY THROUGH MAINLY 9 PM.
OTRW...SOME CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING SWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD LAYER HAS NOW MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 84.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IN STORE AS MIN TEMPS ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 80 DEG(F) ALONG THE COAST AND THIS RANGES TO MID 70S WELL
INLAND. THIS WILL  BE THE LAST UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR A WHILE! NO
CHANGES MADE TO TEMP AND POP FORECAST IN ZONES.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HAVE ANALYZED
PATTERN...INGREDIENTS AND PROCESSES AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT`S
ASSESSMENT OF TOMORROW AFTERNOONS THREAT OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT STRONG
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE (SUPPORTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS STRONGLY). THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
GIVEN REASONING...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS ARENA AND GRAPHICAST
WAS JUST SENT TO DEPICT LATEST TIMING AND WITH IMPACT STATEMENTS
INCLUDED. /23 JMM

AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...FIRST PART OF FORECAST IS ONE
PERSISTENCE AS RIDGE PREVAILS AND AREA REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SFC WSW
TO SW WIND FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS. AS COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...EXPECT STRONG SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN A
LINE... TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE SWD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM AND MOVE THROUGH INTERIOR TERMINALS DURING THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE REALLY INCREASES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 3-6 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CLEAR COASTAL TERMINAL SITES BY 7 PM. SO...IN THE
28/21-29/00 UTC PERIOD...MOSTLY MVRF CONDITIONS IN THUNDER BUT SOME
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN CONTINENTAL
ORIGIN OF AIR ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT HIGHER BASES AT FIRST
AND THEN AS SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVAPORATIVELY COOLS AND MOISTENS WILL
SEE THOSE `TEMPO` IFR CONDITIONS IN LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN...GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST SHOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.
WIND VRBL DURING THIS PERIOD OF THUNDER.  UP TO 1" DIAMETER HAIL MAY
FALL ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS.  /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  77  93  71  90 /  20  10  50  40  05
PENSACOLA   92  80  90  74  92 /  20  10  50  40  05
DESTIN      90  79  87  75  91 /  20  10  50  40  05
EVERGREEN   97  75  94  67  90 /  10  10  50  20  00
WAYNESBORO  97  75  94  66  89 /  10  10  50  10  00
CAMDEN      98  75  94  66  89 /  10  10  50  10  00
CRESTVIEW   96  75  95  69  92 /  20  10  50  40  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 280423 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1123 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...THE REASONING GIVEN IN PREVIOUS
AVIATION AFD SECTION BELOW HOLDS FOR THE 6 UTC CYCLE...EXCEPT SLOWED
SOUTHERLY MOTION OF APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS BY APPROXIMATELY 1-2
HOURS GIVEN LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL FINE-TUNING
ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  SINCE THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE NOW
INCLUDES 00-06 UTC...SHOWED CONDITIONS TRENDING FROM MVFR (PRIMARILY
DUE TO CIGS) TO VFR DURING THE 2-4 UTC TIME FRAME ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10 CORRIDOR. VFR OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT OF COURSE.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES THIS CYCLE. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW SEA-BREEZE
HAS PROGRESSED INTO SE MS AND SW AL COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A DEEPER
INLAND PENETRATION OBSERVED OVER THE NW FL PANHANDLE. THERE ARE A
FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WANE CURRENTLY WITH FEW-SCT CU AROUND
N OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT. CU/AC DEBRIS CLOUDS SEEN ADVECTING SWWD
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES....THIS
WILL BE TEMPORARY FOR THOSE LOCATION - JUST `PASSING` CLOUDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES STABILIZING AND NET MASS FLUX
LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMPUTED AND WITH NICE CONSISTENT RESPONSE
IN CU FIELD AHEAD OF SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THUS...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FALL TO 2-5% AND ONLY THROUGH MAINLY 9 PM.
OTRW...SOME CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING SWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD LAYER HAS NOW MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 84.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IN STORE AS MIN TEMPS ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 80 DEG(F) ALONG THE COAST AND THIS RANGES TO MID 70S WELL
INLAND. THIS WILL  BE THE LAST UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR A WHILE! NO
CHANGES MADE TO TEMP AND POP FORECAST IN ZONES.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HAVE ANALYZED
PATTERN...INGREDIENTS AND PROCESSES AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT`S
ASSESSMENT OF TOMORROW AFTERNOONS THREAT OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT STRONG
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE (SUPPORTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS STRONGLY). THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
GIVEN REASONING...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS ARENA AND GRAPHICAST
WAS JUST SENT TO DEPICT LATEST TIMING AND WITH IMPACT STATEMENTS
INCLUDED. /23 JMM

AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...FIRST PART OF FORECAST IS ONE
PERSISTENCE AS RIDGE PREVAILS AND AREA REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SFC WSW
TO SW WIND FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS. AS COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...EXPECT STRONG SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN A
LINE... TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE SWD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM AND MOVE THROUGH INTERIOR TERMINALS DURING THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE REALLY INCREASES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 3-6 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CLEAR COASTAL TERMINAL SITES BY 7 PM. SO...IN THE
28/21-29/00 UTC PERIOD...MOSTLY MVRF CONDITIONS IN THUNDER BUT SOME
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN CONTINENTAL
ORIGIN OF AIR ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT HIGHER BASES AT FIRST
AND THEN AS SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVAPORATIVELY COOLS AND MOISTENS WILL
SEE THOSE `TEMPO` IFR CONDITIONS IN LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN...GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST SHOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.
WIND VRBL DURING THIS PERIOD OF THUNDER.  UP TO 1" DIAMETER HAIL MAY
FALL ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS.  /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  77  93  71  90 /  20  10  50  40  05
PENSACOLA   92  80  90  74  92 /  20  10  50  40  05
DESTIN      90  79  87  75  91 /  20  10  50  40  05
EVERGREEN   97  75  94  67  90 /  10  10  50  20  00
WAYNESBORO  97  75  94  66  89 /  10  10  50  10  00
CAMDEN      98  75  94  66  89 /  10  10  50  10  00
CRESTVIEW   96  75  95  69  92 /  20  10  50  40  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 280423 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1123 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...THE REASONING GIVEN IN PREVIOUS
AVIATION AFD SECTION BELOW HOLDS FOR THE 6 UTC CYCLE...EXCEPT SLOWED
SOUTHERLY MOTION OF APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS BY APPROXIMATELY 1-2
HOURS GIVEN LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL FINE-TUNING
ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  SINCE THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE NOW
INCLUDES 00-06 UTC...SHOWED CONDITIONS TRENDING FROM MVFR (PRIMARILY
DUE TO CIGS) TO VFR DURING THE 2-4 UTC TIME FRAME ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10 CORRIDOR. VFR OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT OF COURSE.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES THIS CYCLE. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW SEA-BREEZE
HAS PROGRESSED INTO SE MS AND SW AL COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A DEEPER
INLAND PENETRATION OBSERVED OVER THE NW FL PANHANDLE. THERE ARE A
FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WANE CURRENTLY WITH FEW-SCT CU AROUND
N OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT. CU/AC DEBRIS CLOUDS SEEN ADVECTING SWWD
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES....THIS
WILL BE TEMPORARY FOR THOSE LOCATION - JUST `PASSING` CLOUDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES STABILIZING AND NET MASS FLUX
LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMPUTED AND WITH NICE CONSISTENT RESPONSE
IN CU FIELD AHEAD OF SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THUS...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FALL TO 2-5% AND ONLY THROUGH MAINLY 9 PM.
OTRW...SOME CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING SWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD LAYER HAS NOW MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 84.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IN STORE AS MIN TEMPS ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 80 DEG(F) ALONG THE COAST AND THIS RANGES TO MID 70S WELL
INLAND. THIS WILL  BE THE LAST UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR A WHILE! NO
CHANGES MADE TO TEMP AND POP FORECAST IN ZONES.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HAVE ANALYZED
PATTERN...INGREDIENTS AND PROCESSES AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT`S
ASSESSMENT OF TOMORROW AFTERNOONS THREAT OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT STRONG
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE (SUPPORTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS STRONGLY). THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
GIVEN REASONING...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS ARENA AND GRAPHICAST
WAS JUST SENT TO DEPICT LATEST TIMING AND WITH IMPACT STATEMENTS
INCLUDED. /23 JMM

AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...FIRST PART OF FORECAST IS ONE
PERSISTENCE AS RIDGE PREVAILS AND AREA REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SFC WSW
TO SW WIND FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS. AS COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...EXPECT STRONG SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN A
LINE... TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE SWD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM AND MOVE THROUGH INTERIOR TERMINALS DURING THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE REALLY INCREASES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 3-6 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CLEAR COASTAL TERMINAL SITES BY 7 PM. SO...IN THE
28/21-29/00 UTC PERIOD...MOSTLY MVRF CONDITIONS IN THUNDER BUT SOME
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN CONTINENTAL
ORIGIN OF AIR ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT HIGHER BASES AT FIRST
AND THEN AS SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVAPORATIVELY COOLS AND MOISTENS WILL
SEE THOSE `TEMPO` IFR CONDITIONS IN LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN...GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST SHOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.
WIND VRBL DURING THIS PERIOD OF THUNDER.  UP TO 1" DIAMETER HAIL MAY
FALL ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS.  /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  77  93  71  90 /  20  10  50  40  05
PENSACOLA   92  80  90  74  92 /  20  10  50  40  05
DESTIN      90  79  87  75  91 /  20  10  50  40  05
EVERGREEN   97  75  94  67  90 /  10  10  50  20  00
WAYNESBORO  97  75  94  66  89 /  10  10  50  10  00
CAMDEN      98  75  94  66  89 /  10  10  50  10  00
CRESTVIEW   96  75  95  69  92 /  20  10  50  40  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280325
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY SHARP SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST...AS
BIG TROUGH IS DIGGING OUR WAY. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR THE KENTUCKY TENNESSEE STATE LINE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER A LARGE PART OF TENNESSEE. THE
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WITH
LESSENING COVERAGE. BUT DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A TAD NORTHEAST.

BULK SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY NEAR 50 KTS WHERE SEVERE IS OCCURRING
DROPS OFF TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER BUOYANT AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE
VERY MOIST. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY
REACH THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT THRESHOLD WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT.

THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE STORM STRENGTH ON MONDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DIURNALLY DEPENDENT. WINDS ALOFT DO INCREASE...SO SOME UP
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE INTO SEGMENTS...SO ISOLATED SEVERE REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST. DID MOVE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA BACK NORTHWARD
A BIT. NOW IT WILL BE ADVERTISED NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DEMOPOLIS TO CLANTON TO ALEXANDER CITY. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. UPDATED FORECAST AND HWO ALREADY
OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN TEMPO SHRA FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL MERGE INTO
THE MVFR CRITERIA SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED THAT WAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE RAIN SOUTH OF MGM BY 18 SO TOI WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE RE-FIRING OF
THE LINE. DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS AT MGM AS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AT 18Z AS WELL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAINFALL TIMING.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  88  62  83  57 /  40  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  89  64  84  59 /  20  20   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  89  64  84  60 /  20  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  91  65  85  61 /  20  20   0   0   0
CALERA      76  90  65  85  61 /  10  30   0   0   0
AUBURN      74  91  67  86  61 /  10  40  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  93  67  88  63 /  10  50  10   0   0
TROY        76  94  66  88  61 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 280325
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY SHARP SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST...AS
BIG TROUGH IS DIGGING OUR WAY. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR THE KENTUCKY TENNESSEE STATE LINE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER A LARGE PART OF TENNESSEE. THE
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WITH
LESSENING COVERAGE. BUT DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A TAD NORTHEAST.

BULK SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY NEAR 50 KTS WHERE SEVERE IS OCCURRING
DROPS OFF TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER BUOYANT AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE
VERY MOIST. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY
REACH THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT THRESHOLD WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT.

THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE STORM STRENGTH ON MONDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DIURNALLY DEPENDENT. WINDS ALOFT DO INCREASE...SO SOME UP
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE INTO SEGMENTS...SO ISOLATED SEVERE REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST. DID MOVE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA BACK NORTHWARD
A BIT. NOW IT WILL BE ADVERTISED NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DEMOPOLIS TO CLANTON TO ALEXANDER CITY. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. UPDATED FORECAST AND HWO ALREADY
OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN TEMPO SHRA FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL MERGE INTO
THE MVFR CRITERIA SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED THAT WAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE RAIN SOUTH OF MGM BY 18 SO TOI WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE RE-FIRING OF
THE LINE. DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS AT MGM AS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AT 18Z AS WELL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAINFALL TIMING.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  88  62  83  57 /  40  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  89  64  84  59 /  20  20   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  89  64  84  60 /  20  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  91  65  85  61 /  20  20   0   0   0
CALERA      76  90  65  85  61 /  10  30   0   0   0
AUBURN      74  91  67  86  61 /  10  40  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  93  67  88  63 /  10  50  10   0   0
TROY        76  94  66  88  61 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 280325
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY SHARP SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST...AS
BIG TROUGH IS DIGGING OUR WAY. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR THE KENTUCKY TENNESSEE STATE LINE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER A LARGE PART OF TENNESSEE. THE
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WITH
LESSENING COVERAGE. BUT DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A TAD NORTHEAST.

BULK SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY NEAR 50 KTS WHERE SEVERE IS OCCURRING
DROPS OFF TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER BUOYANT AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE
VERY MOIST. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY
REACH THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT THRESHOLD WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT.

THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE STORM STRENGTH ON MONDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DIURNALLY DEPENDENT. WINDS ALOFT DO INCREASE...SO SOME UP
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE INTO SEGMENTS...SO ISOLATED SEVERE REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST. DID MOVE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA BACK NORTHWARD
A BIT. NOW IT WILL BE ADVERTISED NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DEMOPOLIS TO CLANTON TO ALEXANDER CITY. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. UPDATED FORECAST AND HWO ALREADY
OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN TEMPO SHRA FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL MERGE INTO
THE MVFR CRITERIA SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED THAT WAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE RAIN SOUTH OF MGM BY 18 SO TOI WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE RE-FIRING OF
THE LINE. DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS AT MGM AS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AT 18Z AS WELL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAINFALL TIMING.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  88  62  83  57 /  40  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  89  64  84  59 /  20  20   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  89  64  84  60 /  20  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  91  65  85  61 /  20  20   0   0   0
CALERA      76  90  65  85  61 /  10  30   0   0   0
AUBURN      74  91  67  86  61 /  10  40  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  93  67  88  63 /  10  50  10   0   0
TROY        76  94  66  88  61 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 280325
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY SHARP SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST...AS
BIG TROUGH IS DIGGING OUR WAY. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR THE KENTUCKY TENNESSEE STATE LINE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER A LARGE PART OF TENNESSEE. THE
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WITH
LESSENING COVERAGE. BUT DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A TAD NORTHEAST.

BULK SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY NEAR 50 KTS WHERE SEVERE IS OCCURRING
DROPS OFF TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER BUOYANT AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE
VERY MOIST. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY
REACH THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT THRESHOLD WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT.

THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE STORM STRENGTH ON MONDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DIURNALLY DEPENDENT. WINDS ALOFT DO INCREASE...SO SOME UP
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE INTO SEGMENTS...SO ISOLATED SEVERE REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST. DID MOVE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA BACK NORTHWARD
A BIT. NOW IT WILL BE ADVERTISED NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DEMOPOLIS TO CLANTON TO ALEXANDER CITY. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. UPDATED FORECAST AND HWO ALREADY
OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN TEMPO SHRA FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL MERGE INTO
THE MVFR CRITERIA SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED THAT WAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE RAIN SOUTH OF MGM BY 18 SO TOI WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE RE-FIRING OF
THE LINE. DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS AT MGM AS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AT 18Z AS WELL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAINFALL TIMING.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  88  62  83  57 /  40  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  89  64  84  59 /  20  20   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  89  64  84  60 /  20  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  91  65  85  61 /  20  20   0   0   0
CALERA      76  90  65  85  61 /  10  30   0   0   0
AUBURN      74  91  67  86  61 /  10  40  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  93  67  88  63 /  10  50  10   0   0
TROY        76  94  66  88  61 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 280220 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF A
CDFNT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FRONT IS NEARING THE KY/TN BORDER. SFC
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOC/W THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY/LIFT PROVIDED BY A
DIGGING MID-LVL SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SHOWER/STORM
PRODUCTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC SOLAR HEATING HAS NOW CEASED, CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE W-SW WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE TO FEED INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO AND POPS WERE INCREASED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL LIMIT OF DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW...AND POPS WERE LOWERED JUST A LITTLE FOR FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE PARCELS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF BOUYANCY
ONCE ALOFT...WITH ML CAPES ~2-3 KJ/KG AND MUCAPES ~3-4 KJ/KG. SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO A MID-LVL JET
MAX...AND MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IN SOUTHERN
TN AND NERN AL. DMG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT,
ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND VERY FREQUENT LTG WOULD ACCOMPANY THOSE STORMS. DUE TO A SIFNICIANT MID-LVL CAP ~750 MB, STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONFINUED TO A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST TIMING ESTIMATE PLACES STORMS IN OUR TN COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT-1 AM, IN HUNTSVILLE/SHOALS/SCOTTSBORO AROUND 1-2 AM AND CULLMAN/ALBERTVILLE BY ABOUT 3-4 AM CDT.

UPDATES OUT MOMEMTARILY.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU ~05-06Z AT
KHSV/KMSL UNTIL A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVE IN THE AREA. COVERAGE
OF SHRA IS EXPECTED TO BE SCTD WITH THE EXTENT OF TSRA PERHAPS ONLY
ISOLD. THUS...KEPT VFR PREVAILING CONDS AT TAF SITES FOR NOW. IF A
STRONG CELL IMPACTS A TAF SITE HOWEVER...EXPECT IFR/MVFR VIS IN HVY
RAIN CORES. TSRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN NERN AL...AND WAS INCLUDED
IN KHSV TAF. SW WINDS ~10-15KT WILL CONTINUE AT KHSV/KMSL UNTIL
~05-06Z...WITH WSHFT IN ASSOC/W CDFNT ~07-08Z.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 280220 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF A
CDFNT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FRONT IS NEARING THE KY/TN BORDER. SFC
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOC/W THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY/LIFT PROVIDED BY A
DIGGING MID-LVL SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SHOWER/STORM
PRODUCTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC SOLAR HEATING HAS NOW CEASED, CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE W-SW WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE TO FEED INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO AND POPS WERE INCREASED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL LIMIT OF DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW...AND POPS WERE LOWERED JUST A LITTLE FOR FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE PARCELS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF BOUYANCY
ONCE ALOFT...WITH ML CAPES ~2-3 KJ/KG AND MUCAPES ~3-4 KJ/KG. SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO A MID-LVL JET
MAX...AND MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IN SOUTHERN
TN AND NERN AL. DMG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT,
ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND VERY FREQUENT LTG WOULD ACCOMPANY THOSE STORMS. DUE TO A SIFNICIANT MID-LVL CAP ~750 MB, STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONFINUED TO A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST TIMING ESTIMATE PLACES STORMS IN OUR TN COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT-1 AM, IN HUNTSVILLE/SHOALS/SCOTTSBORO AROUND 1-2 AM AND CULLMAN/ALBERTVILLE BY ABOUT 3-4 AM CDT.

UPDATES OUT MOMEMTARILY.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU ~05-06Z AT
KHSV/KMSL UNTIL A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVE IN THE AREA. COVERAGE
OF SHRA IS EXPECTED TO BE SCTD WITH THE EXTENT OF TSRA PERHAPS ONLY
ISOLD. THUS...KEPT VFR PREVAILING CONDS AT TAF SITES FOR NOW. IF A
STRONG CELL IMPACTS A TAF SITE HOWEVER...EXPECT IFR/MVFR VIS IN HVY
RAIN CORES. TSRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN NERN AL...AND WAS INCLUDED
IN KHSV TAF. SW WINDS ~10-15KT WILL CONTINUE AT KHSV/KMSL UNTIL
~05-06Z...WITH WSHFT IN ASSOC/W CDFNT ~07-08Z.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 280003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN TEMPO SHRA FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL MERGE INTO
THE MVFR CRITERIA SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED THAT WAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE RAIN SOUTH OF MGM BY 18 SO TOI WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE RE-FIRING OF
THE LINE. DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS AT MGM AS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AT 18Z AS WELL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAINFALL TIMING.


16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN TEMPO SHRA FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL MERGE INTO
THE MVFR CRITERIA SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED THAT WAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE RAIN SOUTH OF MGM BY 18 SO TOI WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE RE-FIRING OF
THE LINE. DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS AT MGM AS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AT 18Z AS WELL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAINFALL TIMING.


16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN TEMPO SHRA FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL MERGE INTO
THE MVFR CRITERIA SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED THAT WAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE RAIN SOUTH OF MGM BY 18 SO TOI WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE RE-FIRING OF
THE LINE. DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS AT MGM AS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AT 18Z AS WELL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAINFALL TIMING.


16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN TEMPO SHRA FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL MERGE INTO
THE MVFR CRITERIA SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED THAT WAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE RAIN SOUTH OF MGM BY 18 SO TOI WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE RE-FIRING OF
THE LINE. DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS AT MGM AS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AT 18Z AS WELL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAINFALL TIMING.


16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 280000 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 107 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE LP OF MICHIGAN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
REMNANTS FROM THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING MCS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CELLULAR TYPE CONVECTIVE EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
KY THIS AFTN WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY REMAINS
CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL TYPE DEVELOPMENT.

CLOSER TO HOME...PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOW A LID/CAP IN PLACE AROUND
AROUND 800 MB (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z RAOBS AND U/A ANALYSIS).
THIS CAP HAS HELPED TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY DESPITE FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. AT 18Z...TEMPS WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THIS TRANSLATES TO HEAT
INDICES AS HIGH 102...OR JUST BELOW ADVY CRITERIA.

THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT AND
MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE
THERE IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ROBUST/STRONG
CONVECTION ...THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP MAY BE TOUGH TO ERODE ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH PER MODEL SOUNDINGS GIVEN THE LIMITED MECHANICAL
FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS. THE LATEST RAP/HRRR SHOW A RATHER
RAGGED SCT/BKN LINE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AFT 04Z. CONVECTION
MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED BY THAT TIME PERIOD WHICH MAY LIMIT WIND
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL AND CERTAINLY FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES.

EXPECT DRIER AIR WITH FRONT TO PRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BEFORE
12Z AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE 2ND PERIOD IN ALL AREAS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY ALL THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AGAIN ON
MONDAY AS ANY "COOL" ADVECTION SHOULD NOT OFFSET THE RATHER WARM
START TO THE DAY. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WORK WEEK...THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINING A
RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL POSITION FROM
JAMES BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

THIS WILL PLACE THE TN VALLEY IN BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
TYPICALLY A FORECASTING NIGHTMARE AROUND HERE. IN TERMS OF THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE SPREAD THROUGH EARLY/MID
WEEK BUT VARY SOMEWHAT WITH THE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THESE
FEATURES. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IN THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES UNTIL LATE FRI-SAT WITH A STRONGER S/W AND ASSOCIATED VORT
MAX. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE LATTER PERIODS WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. VERY LITTLE SPREAD IS NOTED IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND WILL
THUS LEAN TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR THE 4-7 DAY PERIOD.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU ~05-06Z AT
KHSV/KMSL UNTIL A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVE IN THE AREA. COVERAGE
OF SHRA IS EXPECTED TO BE SCTD WITH THE EXTENT OF TSRA PERHAPS ONLY
ISOLD. THUS...KEPT VFR PREVAILING CONDS AT TAF SITES FOR NOW. IF A
STRONG CELL IMPACTS A TAF SITE HOWEVER...EXPECT IFR/MVFR VIS IN HVY
RAIN CORES. TSRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN NERN AL...AND WAS INCLUDED
IN KHSV TAF. SW WINDS ~10-15KT WILL CONTINUE AT KHSV/KMSL UNTIL
~05-06Z...WITH WSHFT IN ASSOC/W CDFNT ~07-08Z.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280000 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 107 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE LP OF MICHIGAN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
REMNANTS FROM THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING MCS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CELLULAR TYPE CONVECTIVE EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
KY THIS AFTN WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY REMAINS
CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL TYPE DEVELOPMENT.

CLOSER TO HOME...PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOW A LID/CAP IN PLACE AROUND
AROUND 800 MB (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z RAOBS AND U/A ANALYSIS).
THIS CAP HAS HELPED TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY DESPITE FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. AT 18Z...TEMPS WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THIS TRANSLATES TO HEAT
INDICES AS HIGH 102...OR JUST BELOW ADVY CRITERIA.

THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT AND
MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE
THERE IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ROBUST/STRONG
CONVECTION ...THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP MAY BE TOUGH TO ERODE ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH PER MODEL SOUNDINGS GIVEN THE LIMITED MECHANICAL
FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS. THE LATEST RAP/HRRR SHOW A RATHER
RAGGED SCT/BKN LINE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AFT 04Z. CONVECTION
MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED BY THAT TIME PERIOD WHICH MAY LIMIT WIND
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL AND CERTAINLY FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES.

EXPECT DRIER AIR WITH FRONT TO PRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BEFORE
12Z AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE 2ND PERIOD IN ALL AREAS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY ALL THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AGAIN ON
MONDAY AS ANY "COOL" ADVECTION SHOULD NOT OFFSET THE RATHER WARM
START TO THE DAY. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WORK WEEK...THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINING A
RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL POSITION FROM
JAMES BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

THIS WILL PLACE THE TN VALLEY IN BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
TYPICALLY A FORECASTING NIGHTMARE AROUND HERE. IN TERMS OF THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE SPREAD THROUGH EARLY/MID
WEEK BUT VARY SOMEWHAT WITH THE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THESE
FEATURES. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IN THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES UNTIL LATE FRI-SAT WITH A STRONGER S/W AND ASSOCIATED VORT
MAX. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE LATTER PERIODS WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. VERY LITTLE SPREAD IS NOTED IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND WILL
THUS LEAN TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR THE 4-7 DAY PERIOD.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU ~05-06Z AT
KHSV/KMSL UNTIL A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVE IN THE AREA. COVERAGE
OF SHRA IS EXPECTED TO BE SCTD WITH THE EXTENT OF TSRA PERHAPS ONLY
ISOLD. THUS...KEPT VFR PREVAILING CONDS AT TAF SITES FOR NOW. IF A
STRONG CELL IMPACTS A TAF SITE HOWEVER...EXPECT IFR/MVFR VIS IN HVY
RAIN CORES. TSRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN NERN AL...AND WAS INCLUDED
IN KHSV TAF. SW WINDS ~10-15KT WILL CONTINUE AT KHSV/KMSL UNTIL
~05-06Z...WITH WSHFT IN ASSOC/W CDFNT ~07-08Z.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 272319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW SEA-BREEZE
HAS PROGRESSED INTO SE MS AND SW AL COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A DEEPER
INLAND PENETRATION OBSERVED OVER THE NW FL PANHANDLE. THERE ARE A
FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WANE CURRENTLY WITH FEW-SCT CU AROUND
N OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT. CU/AC DEBRIS CLOUDS SEEN ADVECTING SWWD
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES....THIS
WILL BE TEMPORARY FOR THOSE LOCATION - JUST `PASSING` CLOUDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES STABILIZING AND NET MASS FLUX
LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMPUTED AND WITH NICE CONSISTENT RESPONSE
IN CU FIELD AHEAD OF SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THUS...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FALL TO 2-5% AND ONLY THROUGH MAINLY 9 PM.
OTRW...SOME CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING SWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD LAYER HAS NOW MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 84.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IN STORE AS MIN TEMPS ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 80 DEG(F) ALONG THE COAST AND THIS RANGES TO MID 70S WELL
INLAND. THIS WILL  BE THE LAST UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR A WHILE! NO
CHANGES MADE TO TEMP AND POP FORECAST IN ZONES.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HAVE ANALYZED
PATTERN...INGREDIENTS AND PROCESSES AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT`S
ASSESSMENT OF TOMORROW AFTERNOONS THREAT OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT STRONG
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE (SUPPORTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS STRONGLY). THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
GIVEN REASONING...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS ARENA AND GRAPHICAST
WAS JUST SENT TO DEPICT LATEST TIMING AND WITH IMPACT STATEMENTS
INCLUDED. /23 JMM

&&

.AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...FIRST PART OF FORECAST IS ONE
PERSISTENCE AS RIDGE PREVAILS AND AREA REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SFC WSW
TO SW WIND FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS. AS COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...EXPECT STRONG SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN A
LINE... TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE SWD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM AND MOVE THROUGH INTERIOR TERMINALS DURING THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE REALLY INCREASES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 3-6 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CLEAR COASTAL TERMINAL SITES BY 7 PM. SO...IN THE
28/21-29/00 UTC PERIOD...MOSTLY MVRF CONDITIONS IN THUNDER BUT SOME
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN CONTINENTAL
ORIGIN OF AIR ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT HIGHER BASES AT FIRST
AND THEN AS SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVAPORATIVELY COOLS AND MOISTENS WILL
SEE THOSE `TEMPO` IFR CONDITIONS IN LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN...GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST SHOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.
WIND VRBL DURING THIS PERIOD OF THUNDER.  UP TO 1" DIAMETER HAIL MAY
FALL ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS.  /23 JMM

&&


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 272319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW SEA-BREEZE
HAS PROGRESSED INTO SE MS AND SW AL COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A DEEPER
INLAND PENETRATION OBSERVED OVER THE NW FL PANHANDLE. THERE ARE A
FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WANE CURRENTLY WITH FEW-SCT CU AROUND
N OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT. CU/AC DEBRIS CLOUDS SEEN ADVECTING SWWD
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES....THIS
WILL BE TEMPORARY FOR THOSE LOCATION - JUST `PASSING` CLOUDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES STABILIZING AND NET MASS FLUX
LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMPUTED AND WITH NICE CONSISTENT RESPONSE
IN CU FIELD AHEAD OF SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THUS...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FALL TO 2-5% AND ONLY THROUGH MAINLY 9 PM.
OTRW...SOME CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING SWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD LAYER HAS NOW MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 84.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IN STORE AS MIN TEMPS ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 80 DEG(F) ALONG THE COAST AND THIS RANGES TO MID 70S WELL
INLAND. THIS WILL  BE THE LAST UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR A WHILE! NO
CHANGES MADE TO TEMP AND POP FORECAST IN ZONES.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HAVE ANALYZED
PATTERN...INGREDIENTS AND PROCESSES AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT`S
ASSESSMENT OF TOMORROW AFTERNOONS THREAT OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT STRONG
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE (SUPPORTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS STRONGLY). THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
GIVEN REASONING...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS ARENA AND GRAPHICAST
WAS JUST SENT TO DEPICT LATEST TIMING AND WITH IMPACT STATEMENTS
INCLUDED. /23 JMM

&&

.AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...FIRST PART OF FORECAST IS ONE
PERSISTENCE AS RIDGE PREVAILS AND AREA REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SFC WSW
TO SW WIND FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS. AS COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...EXPECT STRONG SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN A
LINE... TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE SWD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM AND MOVE THROUGH INTERIOR TERMINALS DURING THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE REALLY INCREASES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 3-6 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CLEAR COASTAL TERMINAL SITES BY 7 PM. SO...IN THE
28/21-29/00 UTC PERIOD...MOSTLY MVRF CONDITIONS IN THUNDER BUT SOME
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN CONTINENTAL
ORIGIN OF AIR ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT HIGHER BASES AT FIRST
AND THEN AS SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVAPORATIVELY COOLS AND MOISTENS WILL
SEE THOSE `TEMPO` IFR CONDITIONS IN LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN...GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST SHOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.
WIND VRBL DURING THIS PERIOD OF THUNDER.  UP TO 1" DIAMETER HAIL MAY
FALL ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS.  /23 JMM

&&


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 272037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS TO BE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 105
TO 107 FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MOBILE
TO THOMASVILLE IN AL. OTHER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM
101 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 102 TO 107 FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME RELIEF DUE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING MOSTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALOFT A MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIG
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS ALLOWING FOR BETTER
FORCING OR LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY EARLY MON ALLOWING FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MON
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN A WEAK
TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS ALSO NOTED NEAR THE SFC MOVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST BY LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. DUE TO THE
DEPTH OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH SFC BASED
CAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS GREATER FOR MON. LATEST THINKING FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK PLACES MUCH OF THE CWFA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MON. FOR NOW WILL MENTION GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN ZONE FORECAST FOR MON AND MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION CLOSELY TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND MEDIUM
TO LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ALSO SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY LATE AFTERNOON
DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY TRAINING OVER SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS CURRENT MET GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON MON DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS AND RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 CLOSER THE COAST. FOR MON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S FOR INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS HIGH.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO FUEL MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL DROP TO 1 INCH OR LESS WHICH IS AN IMPRESSIVE 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL...BUT HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. THE REAL
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT IN MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW TO MID 60S WILL BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES AND SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA (GENERALLY NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO TO CAMDEN
LINE). THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...SO WE ARE SHOWING LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN ENOUGH...THEN
THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE WEEK.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING:

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST CANADA WILL GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...SHIFTING THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS
FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS RESULTS IN MOISTURE VALUES INCREASING WITH
TIME AND AT LEAST SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FRI-
SUN. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS JUNCTURE. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 29.00Z. LOWER CIGS MAINLY
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON
MON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON THEN INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THIS PATTERN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MON
EVENING WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS ON MON. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET FROM 0 TO 60 NM OUT
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY BY LATE MON AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS A RESULT WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ON MON. BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLE STRONG OR SEVERE...
WILL BE WORKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST MOVING OVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS POSSIBLY BY LATE MON AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MON EVENING
THEN MOVING WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUE MORNING. BY EARLY TUE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY THROUGH TUE
EVENING...REBUILDING TUE NIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO COOL AIR DRAINAGE. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED
EVENING BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  93  71  90  66 /  10  50  30  05  00
PENSACOLA   80  90  74  92  69 /  10  50  30  05  00
DESTIN      79  87  75  91  73 /  10  50  40  05  00
EVERGREEN   75  94  67  90  61 /  10  50  20  00  00
WAYNESBORO  75  94  66  89  60 /  10  50  10  00  05
CAMDEN      75  94  66  89  60 /  10  50  10  00  05
CRESTVIEW   75  95  69  92  64 /  10  50  30  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 272037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS TO BE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 105
TO 107 FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MOBILE
TO THOMASVILLE IN AL. OTHER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM
101 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 102 TO 107 FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME RELIEF DUE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING MOSTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALOFT A MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIG
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS ALLOWING FOR BETTER
FORCING OR LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY EARLY MON ALLOWING FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MON
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN A WEAK
TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS ALSO NOTED NEAR THE SFC MOVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST BY LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. DUE TO THE
DEPTH OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH SFC BASED
CAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS GREATER FOR MON. LATEST THINKING FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK PLACES MUCH OF THE CWFA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MON. FOR NOW WILL MENTION GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN ZONE FORECAST FOR MON AND MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION CLOSELY TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND MEDIUM
TO LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ALSO SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY LATE AFTERNOON
DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY TRAINING OVER SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS CURRENT MET GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON MON DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS AND RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 CLOSER THE COAST. FOR MON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S FOR INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS HIGH.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO FUEL MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL DROP TO 1 INCH OR LESS WHICH IS AN IMPRESSIVE 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL...BUT HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. THE REAL
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT IN MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW TO MID 60S WILL BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES AND SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA (GENERALLY NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO TO CAMDEN
LINE). THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...SO WE ARE SHOWING LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN ENOUGH...THEN
THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE WEEK.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING:

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST CANADA WILL GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...SHIFTING THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS
FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS RESULTS IN MOISTURE VALUES INCREASING WITH
TIME AND AT LEAST SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FRI-
SUN. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS JUNCTURE. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 29.00Z. LOWER CIGS MAINLY
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON
MON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON THEN INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THIS PATTERN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MON
EVENING WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS ON MON. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET FROM 0 TO 60 NM OUT
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY BY LATE MON AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS A RESULT WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ON MON. BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLE STRONG OR SEVERE...
WILL BE WORKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST MOVING OVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS POSSIBLY BY LATE MON AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MON EVENING
THEN MOVING WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUE MORNING. BY EARLY TUE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY THROUGH TUE
EVENING...REBUILDING TUE NIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO COOL AIR DRAINAGE. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED
EVENING BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  93  71  90  66 /  10  50  30  05  00
PENSACOLA   80  90  74  92  69 /  10  50  30  05  00
DESTIN      79  87  75  91  73 /  10  50  40  05  00
EVERGREEN   75  94  67  90  61 /  10  50  20  00  00
WAYNESBORO  75  94  66  89  60 /  10  50  10  00  05
CAMDEN      75  94  66  89  60 /  10  50  10  00  05
CRESTVIEW   75  95  69  92  64 /  10  50  30  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 272037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS TO BE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 105
TO 107 FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MOBILE
TO THOMASVILLE IN AL. OTHER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM
101 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 102 TO 107 FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME RELIEF DUE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING MOSTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALOFT A MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIG
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS ALLOWING FOR BETTER
FORCING OR LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY EARLY MON ALLOWING FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MON
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN A WEAK
TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS ALSO NOTED NEAR THE SFC MOVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST BY LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. DUE TO THE
DEPTH OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH SFC BASED
CAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS GREATER FOR MON. LATEST THINKING FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK PLACES MUCH OF THE CWFA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MON. FOR NOW WILL MENTION GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN ZONE FORECAST FOR MON AND MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION CLOSELY TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND MEDIUM
TO LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ALSO SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY LATE AFTERNOON
DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY TRAINING OVER SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS CURRENT MET GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON MON DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS AND RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 CLOSER THE COAST. FOR MON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S FOR INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS HIGH.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO FUEL MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL DROP TO 1 INCH OR LESS WHICH IS AN IMPRESSIVE 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL...BUT HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. THE REAL
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT IN MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW TO MID 60S WILL BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES AND SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA (GENERALLY NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO TO CAMDEN
LINE). THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...SO WE ARE SHOWING LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN ENOUGH...THEN
THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE WEEK.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING:

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST CANADA WILL GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...SHIFTING THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS
FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS RESULTS IN MOISTURE VALUES INCREASING WITH
TIME AND AT LEAST SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FRI-
SUN. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS JUNCTURE. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 29.00Z. LOWER CIGS MAINLY
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON
MON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON THEN INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THIS PATTERN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MON
EVENING WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS ON MON. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET FROM 0 TO 60 NM OUT
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY BY LATE MON AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS A RESULT WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ON MON. BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLE STRONG OR SEVERE...
WILL BE WORKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST MOVING OVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS POSSIBLY BY LATE MON AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MON EVENING
THEN MOVING WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUE MORNING. BY EARLY TUE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY THROUGH TUE
EVENING...REBUILDING TUE NIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO COOL AIR DRAINAGE. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED
EVENING BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  93  71  90  66 /  10  50  30  05  00
PENSACOLA   80  90  74  92  69 /  10  50  30  05  00
DESTIN      79  87  75  91  73 /  10  50  40  05  00
EVERGREEN   75  94  67  90  61 /  10  50  20  00  00
WAYNESBORO  75  94  66  89  60 /  10  50  10  00  05
CAMDEN      75  94  66  89  60 /  10  50  10  00  05
CRESTVIEW   75  95  69  92  64 /  10  50  30  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 272037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS TO BE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 105
TO 107 FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MOBILE
TO THOMASVILLE IN AL. OTHER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM
101 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 102 TO 107 FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME RELIEF DUE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING MOSTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALOFT A MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIG
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS ALLOWING FOR BETTER
FORCING OR LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY EARLY MON ALLOWING FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MON
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN A WEAK
TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS ALSO NOTED NEAR THE SFC MOVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST BY LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. DUE TO THE
DEPTH OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH SFC BASED
CAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS GREATER FOR MON. LATEST THINKING FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK PLACES MUCH OF THE CWFA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MON. FOR NOW WILL MENTION GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN ZONE FORECAST FOR MON AND MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION CLOSELY TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND MEDIUM
TO LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ALSO SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY LATE AFTERNOON
DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY TRAINING OVER SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS CURRENT MET GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON MON DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS AND RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 CLOSER THE COAST. FOR MON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S FOR INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS HIGH.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO FUEL MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL DROP TO 1 INCH OR LESS WHICH IS AN IMPRESSIVE 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL...BUT HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. THE REAL
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT IN MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW TO MID 60S WILL BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES AND SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA (GENERALLY NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO TO CAMDEN
LINE). THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...SO WE ARE SHOWING LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN ENOUGH...THEN
THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE WEEK.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING:

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST CANADA WILL GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...SHIFTING THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS
FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS RESULTS IN MOISTURE VALUES INCREASING WITH
TIME AND AT LEAST SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FRI-
SUN. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS JUNCTURE. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 29.00Z. LOWER CIGS MAINLY
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON
MON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON THEN INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THIS PATTERN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MON
EVENING WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS ON MON. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET FROM 0 TO 60 NM OUT
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY BY LATE MON AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS A RESULT WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ON MON. BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLE STRONG OR SEVERE...
WILL BE WORKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST MOVING OVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS POSSIBLY BY LATE MON AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MON EVENING
THEN MOVING WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUE MORNING. BY EARLY TUE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY THROUGH TUE
EVENING...REBUILDING TUE NIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO COOL AIR DRAINAGE. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED
EVENING BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  93  71  90  66 /  10  50  30  05  00
PENSACOLA   80  90  74  92  69 /  10  50  30  05  00
DESTIN      79  87  75  91  73 /  10  50  40  05  00
EVERGREEN   75  94  67  90  61 /  10  50  20  00  00
WAYNESBORO  75  94  66  89  60 /  10  50  10  00  05
CAMDEN      75  94  66  89  60 /  10  50  10  00  05
CRESTVIEW   75  95  69  92  64 /  10  50  30  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 272024
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
324 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 18
KTS BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
AT TOI WHERE MVFR VIS COULD OCCUR. GIVEN HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND PERSISTENCE...THE VIS AT TOI MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD WITH THE NEXT FORECAST.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. NOT CONFIDENT ON JUST HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE OR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS MIGHT HOVER JUST
ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA...AND FOR NOW WILL CARRY ONLY VCSH. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION REFIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY TO BE SOUTH OF ALL CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS BY THAT TIME. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL
TIMING.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  88  62  83  57 /  30  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  89  64  84  59 /  20  20   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  89  64  84  60 /  20  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  91  65  85  61 /  20  20   0   0   0
CALERA      76  90  65  85  61 /  10  30   0   0   0
AUBURN      74  91  67  86  61 /  10  40  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  93  67  88  63 /  10  50  10   0   0
TROY        76  94  66  88  61 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$

87/14





000
FXUS64 KBMX 272024
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
324 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 18
KTS BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
AT TOI WHERE MVFR VIS COULD OCCUR. GIVEN HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND PERSISTENCE...THE VIS AT TOI MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD WITH THE NEXT FORECAST.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. NOT CONFIDENT ON JUST HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE OR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS MIGHT HOVER JUST
ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA...AND FOR NOW WILL CARRY ONLY VCSH. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION REFIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY TO BE SOUTH OF ALL CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS BY THAT TIME. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL
TIMING.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  88  62  83  57 /  30  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  89  64  84  59 /  20  20   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  89  64  84  60 /  20  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  91  65  85  61 /  20  20   0   0   0
CALERA      76  90  65  85  61 /  10  30   0   0   0
AUBURN      74  91  67  86  61 /  10  40  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  93  67  88  63 /  10  50  10   0   0
TROY        76  94  66  88  61 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$

87/14






000
FXUS64 KMOB 271900 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
139 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...[27.18Z AND 28.00Z ISSUANCES]...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 28.12Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 29.00Z.
LOWER CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON MON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS TONIGHT AND EARLY MON THEN INCREASING TO
8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST. THE RESULTING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SERVE TO
PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL AIDE
DEVELOPMENT. IF A THUNDERSTORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVOR AN INCREASED RISK OF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY HOT. MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES THAT TOP OUT AROUND
105 TO 106 DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF YOU PLAN
TO BE OUTSIDE TODAY...BE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS DUE TO THE HEAT.
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: HIGH

(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA BREAKS DOWN ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE DEEPENING TROF WILL PUSH
A SFC COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA EARLY
MONDAY...DROPPING DOWN TO THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING AND THEN ON
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. WITH THE FRONT PROVIDING A LOLVL FORCING
MECHANISM IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY EXPECTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN
WE ARE CALLING FOR A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF PCPN. BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH ONLY A
LINGERING CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. BY TUESDAY RAINS ENDED ACROSS
ENTIRE FCST AREA AS FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
BUILDS. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY...STILL EXPECT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES AND LOWER 90S COASTAL ZONES BEFORE THE PCPN
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AS WELL AS OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS.
WILL AGAIN LIKELY SEE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO AROUND 105 DEGREES
ON MONDAY. GETTING COOLER ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL.
ON TUESDAY DAYTIME MAX TEMPS LOWER SLIGHTLY...TO UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FEEL EVEN MORE PLEASANT DUE TO
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXPECT AROUND 70
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND PERSISTS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONGER TERM FCST PERIOD. PRIMARILY A
TEMPERATURE FCST WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...THEN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
(MAKING THIS THE THIRD ABNORMALLY COOL SPELL DURING THE MONTH OF
JULY). LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND UPPER
60S OR AROUND 70S AT THE BEACHES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (27.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND VCTS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  76  95  72  90 /  20  10  50  40  10
PENSACOLA   92  79  94  76  92 /  20  10  50  40  10
DESTIN      90  79  91  78  90 /  20  10  50  40  10
EVERGREEN   97  75  97  69  89 /  10  10  50  30  05
WAYNESBORO  97  74  96  68  91 /  10  10  50  20  05
CAMDEN      98  75  96  67  88 /  10  10  50  20  05
CRESTVIEW   96  74  97  72  93 /  20  10  50  40  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 271807
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
107 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE LP OF MICHIGAN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
REMNANTS FROM THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING MCS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CELLULAR TYPE CONVECTIVE EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
KY THIS AFTN WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY REMAINS
CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL TYPE DEVELOPMENT.

CLOSER TO HOME...PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOW A LID/CAP IN PLACE AROUND
AROUND 800 MB (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z RAOBS AND U/A ANALYSIS).
THIS CAP HAS HELPED TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY DESPITE FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. AT 18Z...TEMPS WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THIS TRANSLATES TO HEAT
INDICES AS HIGH 102...OR JUST BELOW ADVY CRITERIA.

THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT AND
MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE
THERE IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ROBUST/STRONG
CONVECTION ...THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP MAY BE TOUGH TO ERODE ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH PER MODEL SOUNDINGS GIVEN THE LIMITED MECHANICAL
FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS. THE LATEST RAP/HRRR SHOW A RATHER
RAGGED SCT/BKN LINE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AFT 04Z. CONVECTION
MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED BY THAT TIME PERIOD WHICH MAY LIMIT WIND
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL AND CERTAINLY FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES.

EXPECT DRIER AIR WITH FRONT TO PRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BEFORE
12Z AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE 2ND PERIOD IN ALL AREAS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY ALL THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AGAIN ON
MONDAY AS ANY "COOL" ADVECTION SHOULD NOT OFFSET THE RATHER WARM
START TO THE DAY. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WORK WEEK...THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINING A
RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL POSITION FROM
JAMES BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

THIS WILL PLACE THE TN VALLEY IN BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
TYPICALLY A FORECASTING NIGHTMARE AROUND HERE. IN TERMS OF THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE SPREAD THROUGH EARLY/MID
WEEK BUT VARY SOMEWHAT WITH THE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THESE
FEATURES. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IN THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES UNTIL LATE FRI-SAT WITH A STRONGER S/W AND ASSOCIATED VORT
MAX. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE LATTER PERIODS WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. VERY LITTLE SPREAD IS NOTED IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND WILL
THUS LEAN TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR THE 4-7 DAY PERIOD.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
HSV AND MSL. HAVE DELAYED THE VCTS MENTION FOR HSV AND MSL UNTIL
AROUND THE 04Z TO 09Z-10Z TIME FRAME. SOME BROKEN CU IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR WITH A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW BY AROUND THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  89  64  86 /  30  10   0   0
SHOALS        70  89  63  85 /  30  10   0   0
VINEMONT      73  89  62  82 /  30  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  70  88  62  81 /  40  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   72  90  62  83 /  30  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    72  90  61  84 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271807
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
107 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE LP OF MICHIGAN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
REMNANTS FROM THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING MCS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CELLULAR TYPE CONVECTIVE EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
KY THIS AFTN WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY REMAINS
CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL TYPE DEVELOPMENT.

CLOSER TO HOME...PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOW A LID/CAP IN PLACE AROUND
AROUND 800 MB (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z RAOBS AND U/A ANALYSIS).
THIS CAP HAS HELPED TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY DESPITE FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. AT 18Z...TEMPS WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THIS TRANSLATES TO HEAT
INDICES AS HIGH 102...OR JUST BELOW ADVY CRITERIA.

THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT AND
MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE
THERE IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ROBUST/STRONG
CONVECTION ...THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP MAY BE TOUGH TO ERODE ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH PER MODEL SOUNDINGS GIVEN THE LIMITED MECHANICAL
FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS. THE LATEST RAP/HRRR SHOW A RATHER
RAGGED SCT/BKN LINE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AFT 04Z. CONVECTION
MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED BY THAT TIME PERIOD WHICH MAY LIMIT WIND
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL AND CERTAINLY FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES.

EXPECT DRIER AIR WITH FRONT TO PRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BEFORE
12Z AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE 2ND PERIOD IN ALL AREAS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY ALL THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AGAIN ON
MONDAY AS ANY "COOL" ADVECTION SHOULD NOT OFFSET THE RATHER WARM
START TO THE DAY. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WORK WEEK...THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINING A
RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL POSITION FROM
JAMES BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

THIS WILL PLACE THE TN VALLEY IN BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
TYPICALLY A FORECASTING NIGHTMARE AROUND HERE. IN TERMS OF THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE SPREAD THROUGH EARLY/MID
WEEK BUT VARY SOMEWHAT WITH THE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THESE
FEATURES. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IN THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES UNTIL LATE FRI-SAT WITH A STRONGER S/W AND ASSOCIATED VORT
MAX. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE LATTER PERIODS WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. VERY LITTLE SPREAD IS NOTED IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND WILL
THUS LEAN TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR THE 4-7 DAY PERIOD.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
HSV AND MSL. HAVE DELAYED THE VCTS MENTION FOR HSV AND MSL UNTIL
AROUND THE 04Z TO 09Z-10Z TIME FRAME. SOME BROKEN CU IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR WITH A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW BY AROUND THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  89  64  86 /  30  10   0   0
SHOALS        70  89  63  85 /  30  10   0   0
VINEMONT      73  89  62  82 /  30  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  70  88  62  81 /  40  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   72  90  62  83 /  30  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    72  90  61  84 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 271748 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
RIDGE HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD...AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK CAP AROUND 800MB WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT BAY AGAIN TODAY. DO EXPECT A CU FIELD TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF TO
THE WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S WILL
MIX OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY LAYER ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND
WINDS GUST TO 15-17MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WHETHER WE HIT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT AND GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON JUST HOW MUCH
MIXING OCCURS. THE DRY LAYER ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR MIXING ARE STRONGER. IF THIS MIXING RESULTS
IN DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

THIS IS THE FIRST INSTANCE OF WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY
THIS YEAR...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. IF
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY FALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL
CONSIDER CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...STAY HYDRATED
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 18
KTS BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT
TOI WHERE MVFR VIS COULD OCCUR. GIVEN HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENCE...THE VIS AT TOI MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. NOT CONFIDENT ON JUST HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE OR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS MIGHT HOVER JUST ABOVE
MVFR CRITERIA...AND FOR NOW WILL CARRY ONLY VCSH. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION REFIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY TO BE SOUTH OF ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA
TERMINALS BY THAT TIME. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL TIMING.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S
DEWPOINTS PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE
NEAR A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  97  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      95  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      94  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  97  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        96  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 271748 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
RIDGE HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD...AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK CAP AROUND 800MB WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT BAY AGAIN TODAY. DO EXPECT A CU FIELD TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF TO
THE WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S WILL
MIX OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY LAYER ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND
WINDS GUST TO 15-17MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WHETHER WE HIT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT AND GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON JUST HOW MUCH
MIXING OCCURS. THE DRY LAYER ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR MIXING ARE STRONGER. IF THIS MIXING RESULTS
IN DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

THIS IS THE FIRST INSTANCE OF WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY
THIS YEAR...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. IF
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY FALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL
CONSIDER CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...STAY HYDRATED
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 18
KTS BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT
TOI WHERE MVFR VIS COULD OCCUR. GIVEN HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENCE...THE VIS AT TOI MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. NOT CONFIDENT ON JUST HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE OR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS MIGHT HOVER JUST ABOVE
MVFR CRITERIA...AND FOR NOW WILL CARRY ONLY VCSH. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION REFIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY TO BE SOUTH OF ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA
TERMINALS BY THAT TIME. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL TIMING.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S
DEWPOINTS PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE
NEAR A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  97  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      95  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      94  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  97  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        96  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 271748 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
RIDGE HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD...AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK CAP AROUND 800MB WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT BAY AGAIN TODAY. DO EXPECT A CU FIELD TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF TO
THE WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S WILL
MIX OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY LAYER ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND
WINDS GUST TO 15-17MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WHETHER WE HIT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT AND GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON JUST HOW MUCH
MIXING OCCURS. THE DRY LAYER ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR MIXING ARE STRONGER. IF THIS MIXING RESULTS
IN DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

THIS IS THE FIRST INSTANCE OF WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY
THIS YEAR...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. IF
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY FALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL
CONSIDER CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...STAY HYDRATED
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 18
KTS BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT
TOI WHERE MVFR VIS COULD OCCUR. GIVEN HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENCE...THE VIS AT TOI MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. NOT CONFIDENT ON JUST HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE OR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS MIGHT HOVER JUST ABOVE
MVFR CRITERIA...AND FOR NOW WILL CARRY ONLY VCSH. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION REFIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY TO BE SOUTH OF ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA
TERMINALS BY THAT TIME. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL TIMING.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S
DEWPOINTS PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE
NEAR A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  97  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      95  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      94  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  97  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        96  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 271748 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
RIDGE HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD...AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK CAP AROUND 800MB WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT BAY AGAIN TODAY. DO EXPECT A CU FIELD TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF TO
THE WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S WILL
MIX OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY LAYER ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND
WINDS GUST TO 15-17MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WHETHER WE HIT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT AND GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON JUST HOW MUCH
MIXING OCCURS. THE DRY LAYER ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR MIXING ARE STRONGER. IF THIS MIXING RESULTS
IN DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

THIS IS THE FIRST INSTANCE OF WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY
THIS YEAR...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. IF
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY FALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL
CONSIDER CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...STAY HYDRATED
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 18
KTS BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT
TOI WHERE MVFR VIS COULD OCCUR. GIVEN HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENCE...THE VIS AT TOI MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. NOT CONFIDENT ON JUST HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE OR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS MIGHT HOVER JUST ABOVE
MVFR CRITERIA...AND FOR NOW WILL CARRY ONLY VCSH. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION REFIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY TO BE SOUTH OF ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA
TERMINALS BY THAT TIME. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL TIMING.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S
DEWPOINTS PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE
NEAR A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  97  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      95  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      94  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  97  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        96  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KHUN 271710 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1210 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY...WERE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME. WILL
CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON BASED UPON
TRENDING. ANALYSIS OF 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS AND GFS/NAM/ECMWF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AFTERNOON FORECAST AND HAVE ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT CHANGE TO AFTERNOON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BASED UPON RECENT TEMP
TRENDING. EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID
90S-AROUND 100 DEGREES RANGE AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. WILL BE ISSUING THE FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
HSV AND MSL. HAVE DELAYED THE VCTS MENTION FOR HSV AND MSL UNTIL
AROUND THE 04Z TO 09Z-10Z TIME FRAME. SOME BROKEN CU IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR WITH A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW BY AROUND THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271710 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1210 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY...WERE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME. WILL
CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON BASED UPON
TRENDING. ANALYSIS OF 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS AND GFS/NAM/ECMWF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AFTERNOON FORECAST AND HAVE ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT CHANGE TO AFTERNOON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BASED UPON RECENT TEMP
TRENDING. EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID
90S-AROUND 100 DEGREES RANGE AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. WILL BE ISSUING THE FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
HSV AND MSL. HAVE DELAYED THE VCTS MENTION FOR HSV AND MSL UNTIL
AROUND THE 04Z TO 09Z-10Z TIME FRAME. SOME BROKEN CU IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR WITH A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW BY AROUND THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271556 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1056 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
RIDGE HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD...AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK CAP AROUND 800MB WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT BAY AGAIN TODAY. DO EXPECT A CU FIELD TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF TO
THE WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S WILL
MIX OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY LAYER ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND
WINDS GUST TO 15-17MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WHETHER WE HIT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT AND GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON JUST HOW MUCH
MIXING OCCURS. THE DRY LAYER ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR MIXING ARE STRONGER. IF THIS MIXING RESULTS
IN DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

THIS IS THE FIRST INSTANCE OF WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY
THIS YEAR...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. IF
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY FALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL
CONSIDER CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...STAY HYDRATED
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1O KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT NORTHERN TERMINALS ATTM.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  97  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      95  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      94  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  97  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        96  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271556 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1056 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
RIDGE HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD...AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK CAP AROUND 800MB WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT BAY AGAIN TODAY. DO EXPECT A CU FIELD TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF TO
THE WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S WILL
MIX OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY LAYER ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND
WINDS GUST TO 15-17MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WHETHER WE HIT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT AND GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON JUST HOW MUCH
MIXING OCCURS. THE DRY LAYER ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR MIXING ARE STRONGER. IF THIS MIXING RESULTS
IN DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

THIS IS THE FIRST INSTANCE OF WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY
THIS YEAR...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. IF
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY FALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL
CONSIDER CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...STAY HYDRATED
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1O KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT NORTHERN TERMINALS ATTM.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  97  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      95  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      94  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  97  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        96  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 271504 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1004 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY...WERE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME. WILL
CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON BASED UPON
TRENDING. ANALYSIS OF 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS AND GFS/NAM/ECMWF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AFTERNOON FORECAST AND HAVE ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT CHANGE TO AFTERNOON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BASED UPON RECENT TEMP
TRENDING. EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID
90S-AROUND 100 DEGREES RANGE AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. WILL BE ISSUING THE FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 658 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD AT MSL/HSV. FEW/SCT CU IS EXPECTED WITHIN
THE 3-4 KFT LAYER TODAY...BENEATH AN EXPANDING CANOPY OF CS ALOFT. A
GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARND 12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS. COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SWD BTWN 28/00-08Z...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ACCOMPANYING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WRT TIMING/COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCTS/CB IN TAF ATTM. THREAT FOR PCPN WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
BOTH TERMINALS BY 08Z AS WINDS VEER TO NNW...WITH STRATUS DECK
REMAINING INTACT THRU END OF VALID TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271158
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
CI/CS BLOWOFF FROM DECAYING MCS IN KY/TN WAS FANNING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD THIN OUT THIS MORNING, SO A SUNNY
AND HOT DAY IS STILL ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OVERFORECAST BY A FEW DEGREES AND THE 8H THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING FROM
THE MID SOUTH AND SRN OH VALLEY WILL BE 1-2C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, DEEPER MIXING TODAY SHOULD ENABLE L-M90S SUGGESTED BY
THE NAM WITH THE GFS U90S LOOKING TOO HIGH. DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED
BACK INTO THE L70S OVERNIGHT, BUT MIXING SHOULD LOWER THEM BACK INTO
THE U60S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STILL YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND
100F THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. A
FORMIDABLE CAP (CIN OF 72 J/KG) WAS NOTED ON THE 00Z OHX SOUNDING.
THIS CAP HOLDS TODAY ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SO WITH NO LOW
LEVEL FORCING ANTICIPATED FOR THERMALS TO BREAK THROUGH THE LID (I.E.
NO SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL/OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING MCS), WE HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHC OF TSRA
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SE INTO TN. THE CAP MAY KEEP ACTIVITY
AT A MINIMUM COVERAGE, BUT ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO POP COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR JUST NE OF
OUR AREA AS OUTLINED BY THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC FORECAST AFTER MONDAY WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE
WILL SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE U50S BY WED MORNING WITH HIGHS STAYING IN
THE 80S ALL WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DIPPING INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE TROF
POSITION BY FRIDAY INDUCES A SFC WAVE/INVERTED TROF POSITIONED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. E-SELY FLOW MAY ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR REGION, SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS IN DAYS 6-7.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD AT MSL/HSV. FEW/SCT CU IS EXPECTED WITHIN
THE 3-4 KFT LAYER TODAY...BENEATH AN EXPANDING CANOPY OF CS ALOFT. A
GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARND 12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS. COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SWD BTWN 28/00-08Z...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ACCOMPANYING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WRT TIMING/COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCTS/CB IN TAF ATTM. THREAT FOR PCPN WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
BOTH TERMINALS BY 08Z AS WINDS VEER TO NNW...WITH STRATUS DECK
REMAINING INTACT THRU END OF VALID TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271158
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
CI/CS BLOWOFF FROM DECAYING MCS IN KY/TN WAS FANNING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD THIN OUT THIS MORNING, SO A SUNNY
AND HOT DAY IS STILL ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OVERFORECAST BY A FEW DEGREES AND THE 8H THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING FROM
THE MID SOUTH AND SRN OH VALLEY WILL BE 1-2C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, DEEPER MIXING TODAY SHOULD ENABLE L-M90S SUGGESTED BY
THE NAM WITH THE GFS U90S LOOKING TOO HIGH. DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED
BACK INTO THE L70S OVERNIGHT, BUT MIXING SHOULD LOWER THEM BACK INTO
THE U60S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STILL YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND
100F THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. A
FORMIDABLE CAP (CIN OF 72 J/KG) WAS NOTED ON THE 00Z OHX SOUNDING.
THIS CAP HOLDS TODAY ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SO WITH NO LOW
LEVEL FORCING ANTICIPATED FOR THERMALS TO BREAK THROUGH THE LID (I.E.
NO SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL/OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING MCS), WE HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHC OF TSRA
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SE INTO TN. THE CAP MAY KEEP ACTIVITY
AT A MINIMUM COVERAGE, BUT ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO POP COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR JUST NE OF
OUR AREA AS OUTLINED BY THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC FORECAST AFTER MONDAY WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE
WILL SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE U50S BY WED MORNING WITH HIGHS STAYING IN
THE 80S ALL WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DIPPING INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE TROF
POSITION BY FRIDAY INDUCES A SFC WAVE/INVERTED TROF POSITIONED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. E-SELY FLOW MAY ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR REGION, SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS IN DAYS 6-7.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD AT MSL/HSV. FEW/SCT CU IS EXPECTED WITHIN
THE 3-4 KFT LAYER TODAY...BENEATH AN EXPANDING CANOPY OF CS ALOFT. A
GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARND 12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS. COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SWD BTWN 28/00-08Z...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ACCOMPANYING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WRT TIMING/COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCTS/CB IN TAF ATTM. THREAT FOR PCPN WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
BOTH TERMINALS BY 08Z AS WINDS VEER TO NNW...WITH STRATUS DECK
REMAINING INTACT THRU END OF VALID TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271158
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
CI/CS BLOWOFF FROM DECAYING MCS IN KY/TN WAS FANNING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD THIN OUT THIS MORNING, SO A SUNNY
AND HOT DAY IS STILL ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OVERFORECAST BY A FEW DEGREES AND THE 8H THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING FROM
THE MID SOUTH AND SRN OH VALLEY WILL BE 1-2C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, DEEPER MIXING TODAY SHOULD ENABLE L-M90S SUGGESTED BY
THE NAM WITH THE GFS U90S LOOKING TOO HIGH. DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED
BACK INTO THE L70S OVERNIGHT, BUT MIXING SHOULD LOWER THEM BACK INTO
THE U60S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STILL YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND
100F THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. A
FORMIDABLE CAP (CIN OF 72 J/KG) WAS NOTED ON THE 00Z OHX SOUNDING.
THIS CAP HOLDS TODAY ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SO WITH NO LOW
LEVEL FORCING ANTICIPATED FOR THERMALS TO BREAK THROUGH THE LID (I.E.
NO SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL/OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING MCS), WE HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHC OF TSRA
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SE INTO TN. THE CAP MAY KEEP ACTIVITY
AT A MINIMUM COVERAGE, BUT ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO POP COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR JUST NE OF
OUR AREA AS OUTLINED BY THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC FORECAST AFTER MONDAY WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE
WILL SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE U50S BY WED MORNING WITH HIGHS STAYING IN
THE 80S ALL WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DIPPING INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE TROF
POSITION BY FRIDAY INDUCES A SFC WAVE/INVERTED TROF POSITIONED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. E-SELY FLOW MAY ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR REGION, SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS IN DAYS 6-7.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD AT MSL/HSV. FEW/SCT CU IS EXPECTED WITHIN
THE 3-4 KFT LAYER TODAY...BENEATH AN EXPANDING CANOPY OF CS ALOFT. A
GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARND 12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS. COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SWD BTWN 28/00-08Z...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ACCOMPANYING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WRT TIMING/COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCTS/CB IN TAF ATTM. THREAT FOR PCPN WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
BOTH TERMINALS BY 08Z AS WINDS VEER TO NNW...WITH STRATUS DECK
REMAINING INTACT THRU END OF VALID TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271158
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
CI/CS BLOWOFF FROM DECAYING MCS IN KY/TN WAS FANNING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD THIN OUT THIS MORNING, SO A SUNNY
AND HOT DAY IS STILL ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OVERFORECAST BY A FEW DEGREES AND THE 8H THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING FROM
THE MID SOUTH AND SRN OH VALLEY WILL BE 1-2C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, DEEPER MIXING TODAY SHOULD ENABLE L-M90S SUGGESTED BY
THE NAM WITH THE GFS U90S LOOKING TOO HIGH. DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED
BACK INTO THE L70S OVERNIGHT, BUT MIXING SHOULD LOWER THEM BACK INTO
THE U60S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STILL YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND
100F THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. A
FORMIDABLE CAP (CIN OF 72 J/KG) WAS NOTED ON THE 00Z OHX SOUNDING.
THIS CAP HOLDS TODAY ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SO WITH NO LOW
LEVEL FORCING ANTICIPATED FOR THERMALS TO BREAK THROUGH THE LID (I.E.
NO SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL/OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING MCS), WE HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHC OF TSRA
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SE INTO TN. THE CAP MAY KEEP ACTIVITY
AT A MINIMUM COVERAGE, BUT ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO POP COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR JUST NE OF
OUR AREA AS OUTLINED BY THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC FORECAST AFTER MONDAY WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE
WILL SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE U50S BY WED MORNING WITH HIGHS STAYING IN
THE 80S ALL WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DIPPING INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE TROF
POSITION BY FRIDAY INDUCES A SFC WAVE/INVERTED TROF POSITIONED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. E-SELY FLOW MAY ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR REGION, SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS IN DAYS 6-7.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD AT MSL/HSV. FEW/SCT CU IS EXPECTED WITHIN
THE 3-4 KFT LAYER TODAY...BENEATH AN EXPANDING CANOPY OF CS ALOFT. A
GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARND 12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS. COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SWD BTWN 28/00-08Z...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ACCOMPANYING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WRT TIMING/COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCTS/CB IN TAF ATTM. THREAT FOR PCPN WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
BOTH TERMINALS BY 08Z AS WINDS VEER TO NNW...WITH STRATUS DECK
REMAINING INTACT THRU END OF VALID TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271151
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1O KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT NORTHERN TERMINALS ATTM.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  98  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      96  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      96  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  98  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        98  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...
CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...
MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271151
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1O KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT NORTHERN TERMINALS ATTM.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  98  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      96  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      96  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  98  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        98  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...
CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...
MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271151
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1O KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT NORTHERN TERMINALS ATTM.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  98  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      96  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      96  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  98  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        98  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...
CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...
MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271151
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1O KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT NORTHERN TERMINALS ATTM.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  98  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      96  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      96  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  98  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        98  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...
CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...
MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 270951
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
451 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST. THE RESULTING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SERVE TO
PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL AIDE
DEVELOPMENT. IF A THUNDERSTORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVOR AN INCREASED RISK OF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY HOT. MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES THAT TOP OUT AROUND
105 TO 106 DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF YOU PLAN
TO BE OUTSIDE TODAY...BE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS DUE TO THE HEAT.
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: HIGH

(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA BREAKS DOWN ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE DEEPENING TROF WILL PUSH
A SFC COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA EARLY
MONDAY...DROPPING DOWN TO THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING AND THEN ON
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. WITH THE FRONT PROVIDING A LOLVL FORCING
MECHANISM IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY EXPECTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN
WE ARE CALLING FOR A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF PCPN. BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH ONLY A
LINGERING CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. BY TUESDAY RAINS ENDED ACROSS
ENTIRE FCST AREA AS FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
BUILDS. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY...STILL EXPECT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES AND LOWER 90S COASTAL ZONES BEFORE THE PCPN
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AS WELL AS OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS.
WILL AGAIN LIKELY SEE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO AROUND 105 DEGREES
ON MONDAY. GETTING COOLER ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL.
ON TUESDAY DAYTIME MAX TEMPS LOWER SLIGHTLY...TO UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FEEL EVEN MORE PLEASANT DUE TO
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXPECT AROUND 70
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND PERSISTS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONGER TERM FCST PERIOD. PRIMARILY A
TEMPERATURE FCST WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...THEN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
(MAKING THIS THE THIRD ABNORMALLY COOL SPELL DURING THE MONTH OF
JULY). LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND UPPER
60S OR AROUND 70S AT THE BEACHES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (27.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND VCTS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  76  95  72  90 /  20  10  50  40  10
PENSACOLA   92  79  94  76  92 /  20  10  50  40  10
DESTIN      90  79  91  78  90 /  20  10  50  40  10
EVERGREEN   97  75  97  69  89 /  10  10  50  30  05
WAYNESBORO  97  74  96  68  91 /  10  10  50  20  05
CAMDEN      98  75  96  67  88 /  10  10  50  20  05
CRESTVIEW   96  74  97  72  93 /  20  10  50  40  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270951
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
451 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST. THE RESULTING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SERVE TO
PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL AIDE
DEVELOPMENT. IF A THUNDERSTORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVOR AN INCREASED RISK OF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY HOT. MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES THAT TOP OUT AROUND
105 TO 106 DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF YOU PLAN
TO BE OUTSIDE TODAY...BE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS DUE TO THE HEAT.
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: HIGH

(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA BREAKS DOWN ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE DEEPENING TROF WILL PUSH
A SFC COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA EARLY
MONDAY...DROPPING DOWN TO THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING AND THEN ON
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. WITH THE FRONT PROVIDING A LOLVL FORCING
MECHANISM IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY EXPECTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN
WE ARE CALLING FOR A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF PCPN. BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH ONLY A
LINGERING CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. BY TUESDAY RAINS ENDED ACROSS
ENTIRE FCST AREA AS FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
BUILDS. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY...STILL EXPECT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES AND LOWER 90S COASTAL ZONES BEFORE THE PCPN
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AS WELL AS OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS.
WILL AGAIN LIKELY SEE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO AROUND 105 DEGREES
ON MONDAY. GETTING COOLER ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL.
ON TUESDAY DAYTIME MAX TEMPS LOWER SLIGHTLY...TO UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FEEL EVEN MORE PLEASANT DUE TO
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXPECT AROUND 70
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND PERSISTS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONGER TERM FCST PERIOD. PRIMARILY A
TEMPERATURE FCST WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...THEN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
(MAKING THIS THE THIRD ABNORMALLY COOL SPELL DURING THE MONTH OF
JULY). LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND UPPER
60S OR AROUND 70S AT THE BEACHES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (27.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND VCTS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  76  95  72  90 /  20  10  50  40  10
PENSACOLA   92  79  94  76  92 /  20  10  50  40  10
DESTIN      90  79  91  78  90 /  20  10  50  40  10
EVERGREEN   97  75  97  69  89 /  10  10  50  30  05
WAYNESBORO  97  74  96  68  91 /  10  10  50  20  05
CAMDEN      98  75  96  67  88 /  10  10  50  20  05
CRESTVIEW   96  74  97  72  93 /  20  10  50  40  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 270842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
THE LACK OF FOG TONIGHT IS SLIGHTLY ERODED LOOKING AT LATE EVENING
OBSERVATIONS. STILL...VERY LITTLE IN GUIDANCE TO INDICATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS...LIMITED LIFT, COOLING.  BUT WHATEVER
MOISTURE WAS MIXED OUT TODAY IS NOW CONTAINED IN A RATHER SHALLOW
LAYER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DEWPOINT IN MANY
LOCATIONS...DECIDED TO SUGGEST SOME VFR FOG AT A FEW MORE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBILITY STILL RESTRICTED TO TOI.

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL BRUSH BY
NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING GENERALLY W WINDS TOMORROW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEPENING TROUGH FOR UNUSUAL
SUMMER SYNOPTIC BREEZES.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  98  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      96  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      96  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  98  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        98  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...
CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...
MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 270842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
THE LACK OF FOG TONIGHT IS SLIGHTLY ERODED LOOKING AT LATE EVENING
OBSERVATIONS. STILL...VERY LITTLE IN GUIDANCE TO INDICATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS...LIMITED LIFT, COOLING.  BUT WHATEVER
MOISTURE WAS MIXED OUT TODAY IS NOW CONTAINED IN A RATHER SHALLOW
LAYER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DEWPOINT IN MANY
LOCATIONS...DECIDED TO SUGGEST SOME VFR FOG AT A FEW MORE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBILITY STILL RESTRICTED TO TOI.

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL BRUSH BY
NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING GENERALLY W WINDS TOMORROW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEPENING TROUGH FOR UNUSUAL
SUMMER SYNOPTIC BREEZES.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  98  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      96  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      96  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  98  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        98  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...
CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...
MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 270842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
THE LACK OF FOG TONIGHT IS SLIGHTLY ERODED LOOKING AT LATE EVENING
OBSERVATIONS. STILL...VERY LITTLE IN GUIDANCE TO INDICATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS...LIMITED LIFT, COOLING.  BUT WHATEVER
MOISTURE WAS MIXED OUT TODAY IS NOW CONTAINED IN A RATHER SHALLOW
LAYER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DEWPOINT IN MANY
LOCATIONS...DECIDED TO SUGGEST SOME VFR FOG AT A FEW MORE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBILITY STILL RESTRICTED TO TOI.

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL BRUSH BY
NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING GENERALLY W WINDS TOMORROW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEPENING TROUGH FOR UNUSUAL
SUMMER SYNOPTIC BREEZES.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  98  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      96  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      96  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  98  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        98  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...
CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...
MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 270842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
THE LACK OF FOG TONIGHT IS SLIGHTLY ERODED LOOKING AT LATE EVENING
OBSERVATIONS. STILL...VERY LITTLE IN GUIDANCE TO INDICATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS...LIMITED LIFT, COOLING.  BUT WHATEVER
MOISTURE WAS MIXED OUT TODAY IS NOW CONTAINED IN A RATHER SHALLOW
LAYER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DEWPOINT IN MANY
LOCATIONS...DECIDED TO SUGGEST SOME VFR FOG AT A FEW MORE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBILITY STILL RESTRICTED TO TOI.

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL BRUSH BY
NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING GENERALLY W WINDS TOMORROW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEPENING TROUGH FOR UNUSUAL
SUMMER SYNOPTIC BREEZES.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  98  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      96  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      96  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  98  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        98  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...
CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...
MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 270728
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
228 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CI/CS BLOWOFF FROM DECAYING MCS IN KY/TN WAS FANNING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD THIN OUT THIS MORNING, SO A SUNNY
AND HOT DAY IS STILL ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OVERFORECAST BY A FEW DEGREES AND THE 8H THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING FROM
THE MID SOUTH AND SRN OH VALLEY WILL BE 1-2C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, DEEPER MIXING TODAY SHOULD ENABLE L-M90S SUGGESTED BY
THE NAM WITH THE GFS U90S LOOKING TOO HIGH. DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED
BACK INTO THE L70S OVERNIGHT, BUT MIXING SHOULD LOWER THEM BACK INTO
THE U60S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STILL YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND
100F THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. A
FORMIDABLE CAP (CIN OF 72 J/KG) WAS NOTED ON THE 00Z OHX SOUNDING.
THIS CAP HOLDS TODAY ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SO WITH NO LOW
LEVEL FORCING ANTICIPATED FOR THERMALS TO BREAK THROUGH THE LID (I.E.
NO SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL/OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING MCS), WE HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHC OF TSRA
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SE INTO TN. THE CAP MAY KEEP ACTIVITY
AT A MINIMUM COVERAGE, BUT ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO POP COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR JUST NE OF
OUR AREA AS OUTLINED BY THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC FORECAST AFTER MONDAY WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE
WILL SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE U50S BY WED MORNING WITH HIGHS STAYING IN
THE 80S ALL WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DIPPING INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE TROF
POSITION BY FRIDAY INDUCES A SFC WAVE/INVERTED TROF POSITIONED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. E-SELY FLOW MAY ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR REGION, SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS IN DAYS 6-7.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOWER...STILL LOOKING AT SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND THE AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT /08-12Z/. KMSL COULD BRIEFLY
SEE VSBYS IN THE IFR RANGE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LVL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPR LVL TROUGH. SFC WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS AFT 18Z/SUN.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    93  73  89  64 /  10  30  20   0
SHOALS        95  69  89  63 /  10  30  20   0
VINEMONT      92  72  87  62 /  10  30  20   0
FAYETTEVILLE  93  67  86  62 /  10  40  20   0
ALBERTVILLE   92  72  89  62 /  10  30  20   0
FORT PAYNE    92  72  89  61 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270519
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE DEW POINTS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT OR THE LACK THEREOF.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED LOWS BY ABOUT A DEGREE AND THIS WILL PUT
MOST PLACES NEAR THE SURFACE SATURATION BUT MOST PLACES STAY FAR
FROM THE CROSSOVER TEMP. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG IS A BIT LACKING ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL FACETS OF FORECAST ARE ON TARGET. UPDATES OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
THE LACK OF FOG TONIGHT IS SLIGHTLY ERODED LOOKING AT LATE EVENING
OBSERVATIONS. STILL...VERY LITTLE IN GUIDANCE TO INDICATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS...LIMITED LIFT, COOLING.  BUT WHATEVER
MOISTURE WAS MIXED OUT TODAY IS NOW CONTAINED IN A RATHER SHALLOW
LAYER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DEWPOINT IN MANY
LOCATIONS...DECIDED TO SUGGEST SOME VFR FOG AT A FEW MORE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBILITY STILL RESTRICTED TO TOI.

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL BRUSH BY
NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING GENERALLY W WINDS TOMORROW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEPENING TROUGH FOR UNUSUAL
SUMMER SYNOPTIC BREEZES.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270519
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE DEW POINTS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT OR THE LACK THEREOF.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED LOWS BY ABOUT A DEGREE AND THIS WILL PUT
MOST PLACES NEAR THE SURFACE SATURATION BUT MOST PLACES STAY FAR
FROM THE CROSSOVER TEMP. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG IS A BIT LACKING ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL FACETS OF FORECAST ARE ON TARGET. UPDATES OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
THE LACK OF FOG TONIGHT IS SLIGHTLY ERODED LOOKING AT LATE EVENING
OBSERVATIONS. STILL...VERY LITTLE IN GUIDANCE TO INDICATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS...LIMITED LIFT, COOLING.  BUT WHATEVER
MOISTURE WAS MIXED OUT TODAY IS NOW CONTAINED IN A RATHER SHALLOW
LAYER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DEWPOINT IN MANY
LOCATIONS...DECIDED TO SUGGEST SOME VFR FOG AT A FEW MORE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBILITY STILL RESTRICTED TO TOI.

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL BRUSH BY
NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING GENERALLY W WINDS TOMORROW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEPENING TROUGH FOR UNUSUAL
SUMMER SYNOPTIC BREEZES.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 270451 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 721 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
SHORT-RANGE MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS WAS RUNNING 3-5F DRIER
THAN ACTUAL READINGS SINCE 21Z. AS WINDS DECOUPLE...SHALLOW MOIST
BNDRY LYR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL RESULT IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN GRIDS AFT 06Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPTS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REFLECT CURRENT VALUES/EXPECTED TRENDS.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOWER...STILL LOOKING AT SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND THE AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT /08-12Z/. KMSL COULD BRIEFLY
SEE VSBYS IN THE IFR RANGE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LVL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPR LVL TROUGH. SFC WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS AFT 18Z/SUN.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 270451 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 721 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
SHORT-RANGE MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS WAS RUNNING 3-5F DRIER
THAN ACTUAL READINGS SINCE 21Z. AS WINDS DECOUPLE...SHALLOW MOIST
BNDRY LYR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL RESULT IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN GRIDS AFT 06Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPTS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REFLECT CURRENT VALUES/EXPECTED TRENDS.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOWER...STILL LOOKING AT SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND THE AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT /08-12Z/. KMSL COULD BRIEFLY
SEE VSBYS IN THE IFR RANGE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LVL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPR LVL TROUGH. SFC WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS AFT 18Z/SUN.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270423 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION [27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...SKY AND VISIBILITY OK IN THE NEAR
TERM. LIGHT WIND. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  93  72 /  10  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   78  90  78  93  74 /  10  20  10  50  40
DESTIN      77  86  80  91  77 /  10  20  10  50  40
EVERGREEN   73  96  74  94  68 /  10  10  10  50  20
WAYNESBORO  73  95  74  93  67 /  05  10  10  50  20
CAMDEN      73  98  74  93  66 /  05  10  10  50  20
CRESTVIEW   73  95  74  94  71 /  10  20  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 270423 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION [27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...SKY AND VISIBILITY OK IN THE NEAR
TERM. LIGHT WIND. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  93  72 /  10  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   78  90  78  93  74 /  10  20  10  50  40
DESTIN      77  86  80  91  77 /  10  20  10  50  40
EVERGREEN   73  96  74  94  68 /  10  10  10  50  20
WAYNESBORO  73  95  74  93  67 /  05  10  10  50  20
CAMDEN      73  98  74  93  66 /  05  10  10  50  20
CRESTVIEW   73  95  74  94  71 /  10  20  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KBMX 270333
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1033 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE DEW POINTS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT OR THE LACK THEREOF.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED LOWS BY ABOUT A DEGREE AND THIS WILL PUT
MOST PLACES NEAR THE SURFACE SATURATION BUT MOST PLACES STAY FAR
FROM THE CROSSOVER TEMP. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG IS A BIT LACKING ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL FACETS OF FORECAST ARE ON TARGET. UPDATES OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

REMARKABLY CHANGEABLE/DYNAMIC WEATHER FOR MIDSUMMER...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON AVIATION FOR NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG WX GOES WELL BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF THE CHANGE IS THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAS
FINALLY PUSHED TO SOUTH ALABAMA. AS A RESULT...LACK OF MOISTURE
APPEARS TO RESTRICT OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUD CHANCES TO EXTREME
SOUTH ALABAMA...PERHAPS NOT EVEN AFFECTING TOI. STILL WILL HEDGE A
LITTLE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF MOISTURE...AND GO FOR A TEMPO 4SM BR
PERIOD AT TOI.

OTHERWISE...MAIN INDICATION OF CHANGING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS
WILL BE INCREASING WSW WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTAINED WITHIN AN OVERALL DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TOP OUT WINDS AT 12KTS AT BHM
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
THERE...AND OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.

JD/02


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 270333
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1033 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE DEW POINTS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT OR THE LACK THEREOF.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED LOWS BY ABOUT A DEGREE AND THIS WILL PUT
MOST PLACES NEAR THE SURFACE SATURATION BUT MOST PLACES STAY FAR
FROM THE CROSSOVER TEMP. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG IS A BIT LACKING ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL FACETS OF FORECAST ARE ON TARGET. UPDATES OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

REMARKABLY CHANGEABLE/DYNAMIC WEATHER FOR MIDSUMMER...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON AVIATION FOR NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG WX GOES WELL BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF THE CHANGE IS THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAS
FINALLY PUSHED TO SOUTH ALABAMA. AS A RESULT...LACK OF MOISTURE
APPEARS TO RESTRICT OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUD CHANCES TO EXTREME
SOUTH ALABAMA...PERHAPS NOT EVEN AFFECTING TOI. STILL WILL HEDGE A
LITTLE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF MOISTURE...AND GO FOR A TEMPO 4SM BR
PERIOD AT TOI.

OTHERWISE...MAIN INDICATION OF CHANGING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS
WILL BE INCREASING WSW WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTAINED WITHIN AN OVERALL DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TOP OUT WINDS AT 12KTS AT BHM
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
THERE...AND OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.

JD/02


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 270021 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
721 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND ADJUSTED DEWPT GRIDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-RANGE MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS WAS RUNNING 3-5F DRIER
THAN ACTUAL READINGS SINCE 21Z. AS WINDS DECOUPLE...SHALLOW MOIST
BNDRY LYR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL RESULT IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN GRIDS AFT 06Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPTS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES TO REFLECT CURRENT VALUES/EXPECTED TRENDS.

DJN.83

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
WITH SFC/LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED OUT OF THE W/SW
GOING INTO SUN...TEMPS STILL LOOK TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 90S
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105F DEGREE RANGE.

SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUING
TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS MOVING
INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT STILL DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT MAY YET RESULT IN
LOW CHC/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE
THE BETTER MID/UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO SHIFT WELL N OF THE AREA INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AMPLE LATENT HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT WINDS MAY TRANSLATE INTO A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY
SVR TSTMS SUN EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING BRIEF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF MON
MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXITING TO THE S.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF QUIET WX AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN
XPCTED STARTING LATE MON...AS ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS TAKES AIM AT THE SE STATES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
LOOKS TO WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING PERHAPS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
MOVING WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION. UPPER TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO
DEEPEN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST STARTING FRI.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
INTRODUCED LOWER VSBYS AS SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z/TONIGHT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS UNDERDOING CURRENT DEWPTS AND
BASED ON PREVIOUS NIGHT`S TRENDS/CURRENT BLYR CONDITIONS...FEEL FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KMSL BTWN 08-12Z.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 262351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

REMARKABLY CHANGEABLE/DYNAMIC WEATHER FOR MIDSUMMER...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON AVIATION FOR NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG WX GOES WELL BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF THE CHANGE IS THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAS
FINALLY PUSHED TO SOUTH ALABAMA. AS A RESULT...LACK OF MOISTURE
APPEARS TO RESTRICT OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUD CHANCES TO EXTREME
SOUTH ALABAMA...PERHAPS NOT EVEN AFFECTING TOI. STILL WILL HEDGE A
LITTLE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF MOISTURE...AND GO FOR A TEMPO 4SM BR
PERIOD AT TOI.

OTHERWISE...MAIN INDICATION OF CHANGING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS
WILL BE INCREASING WSW WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTAINED WITHIN AN OVERALL DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TOP OUT WINDS AT 12KTS AT BHM
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
THERE...AND OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.

JD/02

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD
WE SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE. FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW RECORD VALUES.

LOCATION     FORECAST LOW   RECORD LOW TEMP
----------   ------------   ---------------
BIRMINGHAM        60          61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY        63          66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA        61          67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON          59          61 (1903)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 262351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

REMARKABLY CHANGEABLE/DYNAMIC WEATHER FOR MIDSUMMER...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON AVIATION FOR NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG WX GOES WELL BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF THE CHANGE IS THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAS
FINALLY PUSHED TO SOUTH ALABAMA. AS A RESULT...LACK OF MOISTURE
APPEARS TO RESTRICT OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUD CHANCES TO EXTREME
SOUTH ALABAMA...PERHAPS NOT EVEN AFFECTING TOI. STILL WILL HEDGE A
LITTLE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF MOISTURE...AND GO FOR A TEMPO 4SM BR
PERIOD AT TOI.

OTHERWISE...MAIN INDICATION OF CHANGING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS
WILL BE INCREASING WSW WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTAINED WITHIN AN OVERALL DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TOP OUT WINDS AT 12KTS AT BHM
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
THERE...AND OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.

JD/02

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD
WE SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE. FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW RECORD VALUES.

LOCATION     FORECAST LOW   RECORD LOW TEMP
----------   ------------   ---------------
BIRMINGHAM        60          61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY        63          66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA        61          67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON          59          61 (1903)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 262351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

REMARKABLY CHANGEABLE/DYNAMIC WEATHER FOR MIDSUMMER...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON AVIATION FOR NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG WX GOES WELL BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF THE CHANGE IS THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAS
FINALLY PUSHED TO SOUTH ALABAMA. AS A RESULT...LACK OF MOISTURE
APPEARS TO RESTRICT OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUD CHANCES TO EXTREME
SOUTH ALABAMA...PERHAPS NOT EVEN AFFECTING TOI. STILL WILL HEDGE A
LITTLE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF MOISTURE...AND GO FOR A TEMPO 4SM BR
PERIOD AT TOI.

OTHERWISE...MAIN INDICATION OF CHANGING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS
WILL BE INCREASING WSW WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTAINED WITHIN AN OVERALL DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TOP OUT WINDS AT 12KTS AT BHM
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
THERE...AND OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.

JD/02

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD
WE SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE. FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW RECORD VALUES.

LOCATION     FORECAST LOW   RECORD LOW TEMP
----------   ------------   ---------------
BIRMINGHAM        60          61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY        63          66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA        61          67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON          59          61 (1903)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 262351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

REMARKABLY CHANGEABLE/DYNAMIC WEATHER FOR MIDSUMMER...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON AVIATION FOR NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG WX GOES WELL BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF THE CHANGE IS THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAS
FINALLY PUSHED TO SOUTH ALABAMA. AS A RESULT...LACK OF MOISTURE
APPEARS TO RESTRICT OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUD CHANCES TO EXTREME
SOUTH ALABAMA...PERHAPS NOT EVEN AFFECTING TOI. STILL WILL HEDGE A
LITTLE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF MOISTURE...AND GO FOR A TEMPO 4SM BR
PERIOD AT TOI.

OTHERWISE...MAIN INDICATION OF CHANGING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS
WILL BE INCREASING WSW WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTAINED WITHIN AN OVERALL DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TOP OUT WINDS AT 12KTS AT BHM
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
THERE...AND OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.

JD/02

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD
WE SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE. FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW RECORD VALUES.

LOCATION     FORECAST LOW   RECORD LOW TEMP
----------   ------------   ---------------
BIRMINGHAM        60          61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY        63          66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA        61          67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON          59          61 (1903)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 262340 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION [27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...MUCH MORE QUIET ON THE RADAR
HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY A FEW POPUP SHOWERS/STORMS
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH SEA-BREEZE. SKY AND VISIBILITY OK IN THE
NEAR TERM. LIGHT WIND. /10

THIS EVENING...WILL LOWER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION (POP) TO LESS THAN
20% AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE OCCURRING ON RADAR.
ONLY A FEW POPUP SHOWERS/STORMS HERE AND THERE WILL BE BEST DESCRIBED
WITH 5 TO 10% POPS. UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...EASTWARD TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS LEADING
TO MORE SUPPRESSION IN EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /10

&&

.FROM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR SUNDAY MODEL SOUNDING
SUGGEST ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTS SOUTH TO THE COAST LIMITING THE CHANCE
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WITH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE
WEEK WITH VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 100 TO 106 DEGREES. WITH BETTER
SUNSHINE EXPECTED COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FEEL VERY MUGGY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE.

A VERY MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST ON MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...ERODING THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING LOCATED TO OUR WEST.
THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT WILL BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 3500-4000
J/KG...WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INDICATING
THAT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE. THE STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO NEAR CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH...CONFINING MONDAY
EVENING STORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH ALL
LAND AREAS LIKELY BEING DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS
WILL STAY IN THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-106 DEGREE RANGE. THE
PASSING FRONT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 84...WITH LOW TO MID 70S STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
34/JFB

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROPPING TO AN
UNSEASONABLY LOW 0.75-1.00 INCH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60 BOTH MORNINGS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS.
IN FACT...A FEW UPPER 50S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
RURAL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX GUIDANCE
AS THIS EVENT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST 2 COLD FRONT EVENTS
THIS MONTH THAT BROUGHT RECORD LOWS TO MOBILE AND PENSACOLA. HERE ARE
THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS...

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR FRI-SAT. 34/JFB

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THIS PATTERN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS MON AND MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT. BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO AROUND 4 FT LATE MON AND
MON NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY TUES
DIMINISHINGS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  93  72 /  10  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   78  90  78  93  74 /  10  20  10  50  40
DESTIN      77  86  80  91  77 /  10  20  10  50  40
EVERGREEN   73  96  74  94  68 /  10  10  10  50  20
WAYNESBORO  73  95  74  93  67 /  05  10  10  50  20
CAMDEN      73  98  74  93  66 /  05  10  10  50  20
CRESTVIEW   73  95  74  94  71 /  10  20  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 262338 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
A NICE BUT MUGGY AFTERNOON UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL GULF IN
CONTROL OF THE OVERALL WX PATTERN. STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALSO REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS STATES...HELPING TO AID THE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. THE QUIET WX PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TRENDING A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH SFC/LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED OUT OF THE W/SW GOING INTO SUN...TEMPS
STILL LOOK TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 90S RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105F DEGREE RANGE.

SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUING
TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS MOVING
INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT STILL DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT MAY YET RESULT IN
LOW CHC/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE
THE BETTER MID/UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO SHIFT WELL N OF THE AREA INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AMPLE LATENT HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT WINDS MAY TRANSLATE INTO A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY
SVR TSTMS SUN EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING BRIEF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF MON
MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXITING TO THE S.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF QUIET WX AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN
XPCTED STARTING LATE MON...AS ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS TAKES AIM AT THE SE STATES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
LOOKS TO WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING PERHAPS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
MOVING WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION. UPPER TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO
DEEPEN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST STARTING FRI.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
INTRODUCED LOWER VSBYS AS SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z/TONIGHT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS UNDERDOING CURRENT DEWPTS AND
BASED ON PREVIOUS NIGHT`S TRENDS/CURRENT BLYR CONDITIONS...FEEL FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KMSL BTWN 08-12Z.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 262338 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
A NICE BUT MUGGY AFTERNOON UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL GULF IN
CONTROL OF THE OVERALL WX PATTERN. STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALSO REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS STATES...HELPING TO AID THE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. THE QUIET WX PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TRENDING A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH SFC/LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED OUT OF THE W/SW GOING INTO SUN...TEMPS
STILL LOOK TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 90S RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105F DEGREE RANGE.

SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUING
TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS MOVING
INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT STILL DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT MAY YET RESULT IN
LOW CHC/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE
THE BETTER MID/UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO SHIFT WELL N OF THE AREA INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AMPLE LATENT HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT WINDS MAY TRANSLATE INTO A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY
SVR TSTMS SUN EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING BRIEF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF MON
MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXITING TO THE S.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF QUIET WX AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN
XPCTED STARTING LATE MON...AS ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS TAKES AIM AT THE SE STATES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
LOOKS TO WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING PERHAPS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
MOVING WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION. UPPER TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO
DEEPEN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST STARTING FRI.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
INTRODUCED LOWER VSBYS AS SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z/TONIGHT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS UNDERDOING CURRENT DEWPTS AND
BASED ON PREVIOUS NIGHT`S TRENDS/CURRENT BLYR CONDITIONS...FEEL FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KMSL BTWN 08-12Z.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 262113 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TEXT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER CLOUDS AND HEAVIER PRECIP
MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWFA GENERALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EAST OF
DESTIN. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST ENHANCED BY BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS DUE TO A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER TO THE WEST LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STRONGLY CAPPED AT AROUND 10K FEET. FURTHER ALOFT
BETTER INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WERE OBSERVED COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTING A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE STILL NOT OUT THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE DRY
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST...WILL LIKELY
OVERCOME THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INLAND GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR ALSO LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH PARTY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. FOR SUNDAY MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
TO THE COAST LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN
THOUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 100 TO
106 DEGREES. WITH BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FEEL VERY MUGGY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV
AND 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE.

A VERY MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST ON MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...ERODING THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING LOCATED TO OUR WEST.
THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT WILL BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 3500-4000
J/KG...WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INDICATING
THAT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE. THE STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO NEAR CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH...CONFINING MONDAY
EVENING STORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH ALL
LAND AREAS LIKELY BEING DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS
WILL STAY IN THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-106 DEGREE RANGE. THE
PASSING FRONT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 84...WITH LOW TO MID 70S STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
34/JFB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROPPING TO AN
UNSEASONABLY LOW 0.75-1.00 INCH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60 BOTH MORNINGS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS.
IN FACT...A FEW UPPER 50S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
RURAL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX GUIDANCE
AS THIS EVENT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST 2 COLD FRONT EVENTS
THIS MONTH THAT BROUGHT RECORD LOWS TO MOBILE AND PENSACOLA. HERE ARE
THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS...

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR FRI-SAT. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.00Z.
LOW CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING
CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...THEN INCREASING TO 8 TO 12
KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WITH THIS PATTERN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS MON AND MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT. BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO AROUND 4 FT
LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT BY TUES DIMINISHINGS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  93  72 /  20  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   78  90  78  93  74 /  20  20  10  50  40
DESTIN      77  86  80  91  77 /  20  20  10  50  40
EVERGREEN   73  96  74  94  68 /  20  10  10  50  20
WAYNESBORO  73  95  74  93  67 /  05  10  10  50  20
CAMDEN      73  98  74  93  66 /  05  10  10  50  20
CRESTVIEW   73  95  74  94  71 /  20  20  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 262104
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER CLOUDS AND HEAVIER PRECIP
MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWFA GENERALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EAST OF
DESTIN. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST ENHANCED BY BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS DUE TO A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER TO THE WEST LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STRONGLY CAPPED AT AROUND 10K FEET. FURTHER ALOFT
BETTER INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WERE OBSERVED COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTING A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE STILL NOT OUT THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE DRY
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST...WILL LIKELY
OVERCOME THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INLAND GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR ALSO LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH PARTY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. FOR SUNDAY MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
TO THE COAST LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN
THOUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 100 TO
106 DEGREES. WITH BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FEEL VERY MUGGY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV
AND 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE.

A VERY MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST ON MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...ERODING THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING LOCATED TO OUR WEST.
THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT WILL BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 3500-4000
J/KG...WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INDICATING
THAT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE. THE STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO NEAR CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH...CONFINING MONDAY
EVENING STORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH ALL
LAND AREAS LIKELY BEING DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS
WILL STAY IN THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-106 DEGREE RANGE. THE
PASSING FRONT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 84...WITH LOW TO MID 70S STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
34/JFB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROPPING TO AN
UNSEASONABLY LOW 0.75-1.00 INCH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60 BOTH MORNINGS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS.
IN FACT...A FEW UPPER 50S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
RURAL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX GUIDANCE
AS THIS EVENT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST 2 COLD FRONT EVENTS
THIS MONTH THAT BROUGHT RECORD LOWS TO MOBILE AND PENSACOLA. HERE ARE
THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS...

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR FRI-SAT. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.00Z.
LOW CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING
CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...THEN INCREASING TO 8 TO 12
KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WITH THIS PATTERN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS MON AND MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT. BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO AROUND 4 FT
LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT BY THE TUES DIMINISHINGS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  93  72 /  20  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   78  90  78  93  74 /  20  20  10  50  40
DESTIN      77  86  80  91  77 /  20  20  10  50  40
EVERGREEN   73  96  74  94  68 /  20  10  10  50  20
WAYNESBORO  73  95  74  93  67 /  05  10  10  50  20
CAMDEN      73  98  74  93  66 /  05  10  10  50  20
CRESTVIEW   73  95  74  94  71 /  20  20  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 262104
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER CLOUDS AND HEAVIER PRECIP
MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWFA GENERALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EAST OF
DESTIN. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST ENHANCED BY BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS DUE TO A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER TO THE WEST LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STRONGLY CAPPED AT AROUND 10K FEET. FURTHER ALOFT
BETTER INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WERE OBSERVED COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTING A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE STILL NOT OUT THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE DRY
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST...WILL LIKELY
OVERCOME THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INLAND GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR ALSO LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH PARTY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. FOR SUNDAY MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
TO THE COAST LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN
THOUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 100 TO
106 DEGREES. WITH BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FEEL VERY MUGGY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV
AND 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE.

A VERY MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST ON MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...ERODING THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING LOCATED TO OUR WEST.
THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT WILL BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 3500-4000
J/KG...WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INDICATING
THAT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE. THE STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO NEAR CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH...CONFINING MONDAY
EVENING STORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH ALL
LAND AREAS LIKELY BEING DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS
WILL STAY IN THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-106 DEGREE RANGE. THE
PASSING FRONT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 84...WITH LOW TO MID 70S STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
34/JFB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROPPING TO AN
UNSEASONABLY LOW 0.75-1.00 INCH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60 BOTH MORNINGS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS.
IN FACT...A FEW UPPER 50S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
RURAL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX GUIDANCE
AS THIS EVENT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST 2 COLD FRONT EVENTS
THIS MONTH THAT BROUGHT RECORD LOWS TO MOBILE AND PENSACOLA. HERE ARE
THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS...

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR FRI-SAT. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.00Z.
LOW CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING
CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...THEN INCREASING TO 8 TO 12
KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WITH THIS PATTERN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS MON AND MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT. BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO AROUND 4 FT
LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT BY THE TUES DIMINISHINGS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  93  72 /  20  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   78  90  78  93  74 /  20  20  10  50  40
DESTIN      77  86  80  91  77 /  20  20  10  50  40
EVERGREEN   73  96  74  94  68 /  20  10  10  50  20
WAYNESBORO  73  95  74  93  67 /  05  10  10  50  20
CAMDEN      73  98  74  93  66 /  05  10  10  50  20
CRESTVIEW   73  95  74  94  71 /  20  20  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 262039
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL DRYING AT LOW
LEVELS TODAY AND ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT FOG AT TOI
TONIGHT WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT 6-10 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

14

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD
WE SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE. FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW RECORD VALUES.

LOCATION     FORECAST LOW   RECORD LOW TEMP
----------   ------------   ---------------
BIRMINGHAM        60          61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY        63          66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA        61          67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON          59          61 (1903)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14





000
FXUS64 KBMX 262039
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL DRYING AT LOW
LEVELS TODAY AND ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT FOG AT TOI
TONIGHT WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT 6-10 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

14

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD
WE SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE. FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW RECORD VALUES.

LOCATION     FORECAST LOW   RECORD LOW TEMP
----------   ------------   ---------------
BIRMINGHAM        60          61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY        63          66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA        61          67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON          59          61 (1903)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14






000
FXUS64 KHUN 262010
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE BUT MUGGY AFTERNOON UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL GULF IN
CONTROL OF THE OVERALL WX PATTERN. STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALSO REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS STATES...HELPING TO AID THE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. THE QUIET WX PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TRENDING A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH SFC/LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED OUT OF THE W/SW GOING INTO SUN...TEMPS
STILL LOOK TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 90S RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105F DEGREE RANGE.

SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUING
TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS MOVING
INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT STILL DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT MAY YET RESULT IN
LOW CHC/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE
THE BETTER MID/UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO SHIFT WELL N OF THE AREA INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AMPLE LATENT HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT WINDS MAY TRANSLATE INTO A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY
SVR TSTMS SUN EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING BRIEF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF MON
MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXITING TO THE S.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF QUIET WX AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN
XPCTED STARTING LATE MON...AS ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS TAKES AIM AT THE SE STATES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
LOOKS TO WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING PERHAPS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
MOVING WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION. UPPER TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO
DEEPEN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST STARTING FRI.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  96  72  89 /   0  10  30  20
SHOALS        72  97  73  90 /   0  10  30  20
VINEMONT      71  95  72  87 /   0  10  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  71  93  71  87 /   0  20  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   70  95  72  89 /   0  10  30  20
FORT PAYNE    69  95  72  88 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 262010
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE BUT MUGGY AFTERNOON UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL GULF IN
CONTROL OF THE OVERALL WX PATTERN. STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALSO REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS STATES...HELPING TO AID THE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. THE QUIET WX PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TRENDING A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH SFC/LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED OUT OF THE W/SW GOING INTO SUN...TEMPS
STILL LOOK TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 90S RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105F DEGREE RANGE.

SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUING
TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS MOVING
INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT STILL DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT MAY YET RESULT IN
LOW CHC/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE
THE BETTER MID/UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO SHIFT WELL N OF THE AREA INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AMPLE LATENT HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT WINDS MAY TRANSLATE INTO A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY
SVR TSTMS SUN EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING BRIEF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF MON
MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXITING TO THE S.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF QUIET WX AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN
XPCTED STARTING LATE MON...AS ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS TAKES AIM AT THE SE STATES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
LOOKS TO WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING PERHAPS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
MOVING WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION. UPPER TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO
DEEPEN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST STARTING FRI.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  96  72  89 /   0  10  30  20
SHOALS        72  97  73  90 /   0  10  30  20
VINEMONT      71  95  72  87 /   0  10  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  71  93  71  87 /   0  20  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   70  95  72  89 /   0  10  30  20
FORT PAYNE    69  95  72  88 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 261919 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
214 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...[26.16Z ISSUANCE]...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
27.18Z. LOW CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4
LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...THEN
INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY LEADING TO BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC TROUGH/FRONT AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. GUIDANCE POPS CAME IN GENERALLY 10% OR LESS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS
THAN 10% THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE WARMER IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S. RAIN
CHANCES RAPIDLY END THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
MOST AREAS. COASTAL ZONES WILL SEE LOW IN THE UPPER 70S. /13

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO POKE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...WHILE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
HALF OF FCST AREA WHERE OLD SFC BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S COASTAL. SUNDAY NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S (WITH WARMEST TEMPS NEAR THE COAST). ON MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
THE DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE FCST
AREA FROM THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REGION
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. RAINS ENDING MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ALONG
COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER 70S OVER REMAINDER OF
THE FCST AREA (EXCEPT MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST). 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND PERSISTS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE
FCST WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER
90S MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME MIDDLE 90S SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MAYBE
EVEN SOME UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY). OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR (MAKING THIS THE THIRD ABNORMALLY COOL SPELL DURING THE
MONTH OF JULY). LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S OR AROUND 70S AT THE BEACHES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (26.12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP. OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TSRA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  76  93 /  30  20  20  10  40
PENSACOLA   90  79  92  78  93 /  30  20  20  10  50
DESTIN      87  78  89  80  90 /  30  20  20  10  40
EVERGREEN   94  73  96  74  95 /  20  10  10  10  50
WAYNESBORO  94  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  40
CAMDEN      94  73  97  74  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
CRESTVIEW   94  73  95  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 261919 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
214 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...[26.16Z ISSUANCE]...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
27.18Z. LOW CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4
LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...THEN
INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY LEADING TO BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC TROUGH/FRONT AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. GUIDANCE POPS CAME IN GENERALLY 10% OR LESS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS
THAN 10% THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE WARMER IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S. RAIN
CHANCES RAPIDLY END THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
MOST AREAS. COASTAL ZONES WILL SEE LOW IN THE UPPER 70S. /13

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO POKE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...WHILE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
HALF OF FCST AREA WHERE OLD SFC BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S COASTAL. SUNDAY NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S (WITH WARMEST TEMPS NEAR THE COAST). ON MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
THE DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE FCST
AREA FROM THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REGION
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. RAINS ENDING MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ALONG
COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER 70S OVER REMAINDER OF
THE FCST AREA (EXCEPT MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST). 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND PERSISTS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE
FCST WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER
90S MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME MIDDLE 90S SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MAYBE
EVEN SOME UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY). OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR (MAKING THIS THE THIRD ABNORMALLY COOL SPELL DURING THE
MONTH OF JULY). LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S OR AROUND 70S AT THE BEACHES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (26.12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP. OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TSRA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  76  93 /  30  20  20  10  40
PENSACOLA   90  79  92  78  93 /  30  20  20  10  50
DESTIN      87  78  89  80  90 /  30  20  20  10  40
EVERGREEN   94  73  96  74  95 /  20  10  10  10  50
WAYNESBORO  94  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  40
CAMDEN      94  73  97  74  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
CRESTVIEW   94  73  95  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KBMX 261732 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING DIVIDES CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S TO THE SOUTH AND THE 60S TO THE NORTH. ALSO SEEING A CU
FIELD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DEWPOINT GRADIENT
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AND NOT BE MUCH OF PLAYER IN TODAYS
WEATHER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD TODAY...WITH HEIGHTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW BOUNDARIES NOTED THIS
MORNING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...PUSHING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT RIDGING ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP AT 700MB TO
SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY. WILL LEAVE A
10 POP SOUTH OF I-85 GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARIES THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DEVELOPMENT.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RUNNING ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT SHOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH LESS
CLOUDS.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL DRYING AT LOW
LEVELS TODAY AND ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT FOG AT TOI
TONIGHT WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT 6-10 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 261719 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS JUST
NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL
ENJOYING MID 60S DEW POINT TEMPS...WITH AROUND 70 DEW POINTS MAINLY
SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGES WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL BE UPDATING
FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261719 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS JUST
NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL
ENJOYING MID 60S DEW POINT TEMPS...WITH AROUND 70 DEW POINTS MAINLY
SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGES WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL BE UPDATING
FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 261611 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1111 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING DIVIDES CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S TO THE SOUTH AND THE 60S TO THE NORTH. ALSO SEEING A CU
FIELD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DEWPOINT GRADIENT
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AND NOT BE MUCH OF PLAYER IN TODAYS
WEATHER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD TODAY...WITH HEIGHTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW BOUNDARIES NOTED THIS
MORNING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...PUSHING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT RIDGING ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP AT 700MB TO
SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY. WILL LEAVE A
10 POP SOUTH OF I-85 GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARIES THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DEVELOPMENT.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RUNNING ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT SHOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH LESS
CLOUDS.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY AT
MGM/TOI IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 261611 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1111 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING DIVIDES CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S TO THE SOUTH AND THE 60S TO THE NORTH. ALSO SEEING A CU
FIELD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DEWPOINT GRADIENT
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AND NOT BE MUCH OF PLAYER IN TODAYS
WEATHER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD TODAY...WITH HEIGHTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW BOUNDARIES NOTED THIS
MORNING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...PUSHING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT RIDGING ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP AT 700MB TO
SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY. WILL LEAVE A
10 POP SOUTH OF I-85 GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARIES THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DEVELOPMENT.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RUNNING ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT SHOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH LESS
CLOUDS.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY AT
MGM/TOI IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 261611 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1111 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING DIVIDES CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S TO THE SOUTH AND THE 60S TO THE NORTH. ALSO SEEING A CU
FIELD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DEWPOINT GRADIENT
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AND NOT BE MUCH OF PLAYER IN TODAYS
WEATHER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD TODAY...WITH HEIGHTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW BOUNDARIES NOTED THIS
MORNING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...PUSHING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT RIDGING ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP AT 700MB TO
SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY. WILL LEAVE A
10 POP SOUTH OF I-85 GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARIES THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DEVELOPMENT.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RUNNING ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT SHOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH LESS
CLOUDS.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY AT
MGM/TOI IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 261611 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1111 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING DIVIDES CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S TO THE SOUTH AND THE 60S TO THE NORTH. ALSO SEEING A CU
FIELD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DEWPOINT GRADIENT
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AND NOT BE MUCH OF PLAYER IN TODAYS
WEATHER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD TODAY...WITH HEIGHTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW BOUNDARIES NOTED THIS
MORNING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...PUSHING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT RIDGING ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP AT 700MB TO
SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY. WILL LEAVE A
10 POP SOUTH OF I-85 GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARIES THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DEVELOPMENT.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RUNNING ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT SHOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH LESS
CLOUDS.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY AT
MGM/TOI IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 261539 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS JUST
NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL
ENJOYING MID 60S DEW POINT TEMPS...WITH AROUND 70 DEW POINTS MAINLY
SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGES WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL BE UPDATING
FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...PATCHY BR/FG CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT BOTH HSV/MSL
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH 26/14Z...BUT WILL ALSO REQUIRE INITIAL
TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FEW CU ARND 3500 FT BY LATE
MORNING AND INCREASING ALTO/CIRROFORM CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTN. A
STRENGTHENING WLY LOW-LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT MAY SUPPORT A LOWER DECK
OF STRATUS BTWN 27/09-12Z BUT DID NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
A COMPLEX OF TSRA MAY ALSO SHIFT SEWD INTO EASTERN TN BY END OF TAF
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO THE N/E OF BOTH
TERMINALS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261539 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS JUST
NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL
ENJOYING MID 60S DEW POINT TEMPS...WITH AROUND 70 DEW POINTS MAINLY
SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGES WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL BE UPDATING
FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...PATCHY BR/FG CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT BOTH HSV/MSL
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH 26/14Z...BUT WILL ALSO REQUIRE INITIAL
TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FEW CU ARND 3500 FT BY LATE
MORNING AND INCREASING ALTO/CIRROFORM CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTN. A
STRENGTHENING WLY LOW-LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT MAY SUPPORT A LOWER DECK
OF STRATUS BTWN 27/09-12Z BUT DID NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
A COMPLEX OF TSRA MAY ALSO SHIFT SEWD INTO EASTERN TN BY END OF TAF
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO THE N/E OF BOTH
TERMINALS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261539 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS JUST
NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL
ENJOYING MID 60S DEW POINT TEMPS...WITH AROUND 70 DEW POINTS MAINLY
SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGES WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL BE UPDATING
FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...PATCHY BR/FG CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT BOTH HSV/MSL
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH 26/14Z...BUT WILL ALSO REQUIRE INITIAL
TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FEW CU ARND 3500 FT BY LATE
MORNING AND INCREASING ALTO/CIRROFORM CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTN. A
STRENGTHENING WLY LOW-LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT MAY SUPPORT A LOWER DECK
OF STRATUS BTWN 27/09-12Z BUT DID NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
A COMPLEX OF TSRA MAY ALSO SHIFT SEWD INTO EASTERN TN BY END OF TAF
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO THE N/E OF BOTH
TERMINALS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261539 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS JUST
NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL
ENJOYING MID 60S DEW POINT TEMPS...WITH AROUND 70 DEW POINTS MAINLY
SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGES WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL BE UPDATING
FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...PATCHY BR/FG CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT BOTH HSV/MSL
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH 26/14Z...BUT WILL ALSO REQUIRE INITIAL
TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FEW CU ARND 3500 FT BY LATE
MORNING AND INCREASING ALTO/CIRROFORM CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTN. A
STRENGTHENING WLY LOW-LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT MAY SUPPORT A LOWER DECK
OF STRATUS BTWN 27/09-12Z BUT DID NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
A COMPLEX OF TSRA MAY ALSO SHIFT SEWD INTO EASTERN TN BY END OF TAF
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO THE N/E OF BOTH
TERMINALS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 261146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY AT
MGM/TOI IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

19

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD WE
SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE CURRENTLY NEAR
RECORD VALUES. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY
30TH...

LOCATION        RECORD LOW TEMP
----------      ---------------
BIRMINGHAM         61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY         66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA         67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON           61 (1903)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 261146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY AT
MGM/TOI IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

19

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD WE
SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE CURRENTLY NEAR
RECORD VALUES. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY
30TH...

LOCATION        RECORD LOW TEMP
----------      ---------------
BIRMINGHAM         61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY         66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA         67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON           61 (1903)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 261145
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 233 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
WATER VAPOR AND MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A POTENT UPPER LOW WAS
POSITIONED TO ITS NORTH OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH A JET CORE IN BETWEEN
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
OWING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105F. WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON
THE MOS TEMPS (GFS HAS BEEN TYPICALLY TOO WARM), BUT THE ADVECTION
OF 850MB TEMPS IN THE L-M20S MAKE READINGS IN THE L-M90S SEEM VERY
PLAUSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FORMIDABLE CAPPING INVERSION
TODAY, SO FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. DEW POINTS OF NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
70F WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS PERSISTENT S-SWLY FLOW OCCURS. THE CAP
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION, BUT WILL KEEP
ISOLATED T AS A POSSIBILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE CAP CAN
BREAK, INSTABILITY/CAPE AND A DRIER 8-5H LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
DOWNBURST ACTIVITY.

THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING IN SOUTHERN TN. ROBUST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
TN WHICH SHOULD TEND TO BACK-BUILD WWD INTO THE FAVORABLE 25-35KT
LOW LEVEL INFLOW (9-8H LEVELS) AND THETA-E RIDGE POSN. THE CAPPING
INVERSION WILL LIKELY HOLD DEVELOPMENT BACK UNTIL THIS OCCURS. THE
CAP ALSO LENDS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OF 30-35KT WILL INCREASE EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES, BUT NOT CERTAIN IF THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE VS MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. THE SPC OUTLOOK EMPHASIZING AREAS TO OUR NE
LOOKS GOOD, BUT A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR IN OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
UPPER LOW SE INTO THE A DEEPER TROF POSITION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WWD A ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/SWRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER WELCOME PERIOD OF BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY THRU THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...PATCHY BR/FG CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT BOTH HSV/MSL
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH 26/14Z...BUT WILL ALSO REQUIRE INITIAL
TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FEW CU ARND 3500 FT BY LATE
MORNING AND INCREASING ALTO/CIRROFORM CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTN. A
STRENGTHENING WLY LOW-LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT MAY SUPPORT A LOWER DECK
OF STRATUS BTWN 27/09-12Z BUT DID NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
A COMPLEX OF TSRA MAY ALSO SHIFT SEWD INTO EASTERN TN BY END OF TAF
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO THE N/E OF BOTH
TERMINALS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 261145
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 233 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
WATER VAPOR AND MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A POTENT UPPER LOW WAS
POSITIONED TO ITS NORTH OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH A JET CORE IN BETWEEN
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
OWING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105F. WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON
THE MOS TEMPS (GFS HAS BEEN TYPICALLY TOO WARM), BUT THE ADVECTION
OF 850MB TEMPS IN THE L-M20S MAKE READINGS IN THE L-M90S SEEM VERY
PLAUSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FORMIDABLE CAPPING INVERSION
TODAY, SO FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. DEW POINTS OF NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
70F WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS PERSISTENT S-SWLY FLOW OCCURS. THE CAP
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION, BUT WILL KEEP
ISOLATED T AS A POSSIBILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE CAP CAN
BREAK, INSTABILITY/CAPE AND A DRIER 8-5H LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
DOWNBURST ACTIVITY.

THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING IN SOUTHERN TN. ROBUST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
TN WHICH SHOULD TEND TO BACK-BUILD WWD INTO THE FAVORABLE 25-35KT
LOW LEVEL INFLOW (9-8H LEVELS) AND THETA-E RIDGE POSN. THE CAPPING
INVERSION WILL LIKELY HOLD DEVELOPMENT BACK UNTIL THIS OCCURS. THE
CAP ALSO LENDS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OF 30-35KT WILL INCREASE EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES, BUT NOT CERTAIN IF THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE VS MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. THE SPC OUTLOOK EMPHASIZING AREAS TO OUR NE
LOOKS GOOD, BUT A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR IN OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
UPPER LOW SE INTO THE A DEEPER TROF POSITION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WWD A ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/SWRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER WELCOME PERIOD OF BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY THRU THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...PATCHY BR/FG CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT BOTH HSV/MSL
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH 26/14Z...BUT WILL ALSO REQUIRE INITIAL
TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FEW CU ARND 3500 FT BY LATE
MORNING AND INCREASING ALTO/CIRROFORM CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTN. A
STRENGTHENING WLY LOW-LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT MAY SUPPORT A LOWER DECK
OF STRATUS BTWN 27/09-12Z BUT DID NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
A COMPLEX OF TSRA MAY ALSO SHIFT SEWD INTO EASTERN TN BY END OF TAF
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO THE N/E OF BOTH
TERMINALS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261020
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY LEADING TO BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC TROUGH/FRONT AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. GUIDANCE POPS CAME IN GENERALLY 10% OR LESS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS
THAN 10% THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE WARMER IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S. RAIN
CHANCES RAPIDLY END THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
MOST AREAS. COASTAL ZONES WILL SEE LOW IN THE UPPER 70S. /13

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO POKE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...WHILE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
HALF OF FCST AREA WHERE OLD SFC BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S COASTAL. SUNDAY NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S (WITH WARMEST TEMPS NEAR THE COAST). ON MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
THE DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE FCST
AREA FROM THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REGION
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. RAINS ENDING MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ALONG
COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER 70S OVER REMAINDER OF
THE FCST AREA (EXCEPT MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST). 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND PERSISTS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE
FCST WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER
90S MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME MIDDLE 90S SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MAYBE
EVEN SOME UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY). OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR (MAKING THIS THE THIRD ABNORMALLY COOL SPELL DURING THE
MONTH OF JULY). LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S OR AROUND 70S AT THE BEACHES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (26.12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP. OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TSRA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  76  93 /  30  20  20  10  40
PENSACOLA   90  79  92  78  93 /  30  20  20  10  50
DESTIN      87  78  89  80  90 /  30  20  20  10  40
EVERGREEN   94  73  96  74  95 /  20  10  10  10  50
WAYNESBORO  94  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  40
CAMDEN      94  73  97  74  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
CRESTVIEW   94  73  95  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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