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000
FXUS64 KBMX 170914
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
414 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER ENJOYABLE AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FOR
MID APRIL DUE TO AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. A LOW-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...CAUSING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE GFS HAS ABANDONED
ITS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF
WHICH SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA ON
FRIDAY. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...A LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS. MEANWHILE A COOL WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND GET WRAPPED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. KEPT
TEMPERATURES RATHER CHILLY ON FRIDAY WITH SOME AREAS NOT EXPECTED
TO RISE ABOVE THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS. A TROWAL WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN LINGERING ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY AS WE GET A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT US BY LATE MONDAY
BUT IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS ITS PREDECESSOR. THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE
WITH A LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND A HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN MOISTURE AND INCREASE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. DUE TO THIS...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTOI AROUND 12Z. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST INCLUDED
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTOI BUT THEY COULD SNEAK UP TO KMGM AS WELL.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z AND SHOULD SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNSET.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  50  59  46  72 /   0  20  40  10  10
ANNISTON    66  50  57  47  72 /   0  20  50  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  51  60  47  73 /   0  20  40  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  52  65  47  76 /   0  30  30  10  10
CALERA      67  52  60  48  73 /   0  30  50  20  10
AUBURN      65  51  55  47  69 /   0  40  80  50  20
MONTGOMERY  69  51  58  48  73 /   0  70  80  40  10
TROY        68  52  55  48  71 /  10  80  90  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/05





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000
FXUS64 KMOB 170904
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND
LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH WARMER TONIGHT...IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. /13

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF A
LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.  THE UPPER LOW
DEEPENS WHILE CONTINUING EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF PNS AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ADVANCES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING USING A BLEND OF THE SLOWER
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/NAM COMPARED TO THE QUICKER GFS.  THIS SYSTEM
SUPPORTS CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 FRIDAY MORNING
TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERNMOST PORTION...THEN POPS
TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.  RAINFALL EVENT TOTALS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED FURTHER TO BE ABOUT 1-1.5 INCHES EAST OF I-65
TAPERING TO NEAR 0.3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERNMOST PORTION.
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65
GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THIS PORTION BUT NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS
POINT THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUFFICIENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO RAIN AND HEAVY
CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROF BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.  THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES
EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH
BRINGS A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
RETURNS NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  POPS
INCREASE TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE STAYED
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR WEDNESDAY AS DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION.  NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TREND
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18.00Z. /13

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ON
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY AND
BECOME EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  57  69  50  75 /  20  80  70  10  05
PENSACOLA   68  60  66  52  74 /  20  80  90  20  05
DESTIN      69  62  64  55  71 /  20  80  90  20  10
EVERGREEN   70  55  63  47  73 /  05  70  80  20  05
WAYNESBORO  68  55  69  46  76 /  05  60  40  10  05
CAMDEN      70  54  63  46  74 /  10  60  70  20  05
CRESTVIEW   72  57  63  46  74 /  10  80  90  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





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000
FXUS64 KHUN 170824
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN APPROACHING TROF
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER
LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WAS
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACNW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT
THE SFC THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA (WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS
ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN TODAY`S FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME IN THE NRN
GOMEX, INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FL.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH/EAST
ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT`S THIS FEATURE THAT WILL GOVERN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TN VALLEY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID, WITH WAA ONGOING DURING THIS PROCESS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE DECREASED DOWN TO 20% BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING, VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA. ERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER/SFC LOW TO THE SE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT, WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S IN NERN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWING A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
IN THEIR TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA IN WAA SHRA FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES,
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS IN THE NRN GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTN, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  50  63  48 /   0  20  20  10
SHOALS        68  51  66  48 /   0  20  20  10
VINEMONT      67  49  63  46 /   0  20  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  67  48  62  45 /   0  10  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   66  49  62  45 /   0  20  20  10
FORT PAYNE    66  47  63  44 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170824
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN APPROACHING TROF
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER
LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WAS
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACNW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT
THE SFC THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA (WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS
ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN TODAY`S FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME IN THE NRN
GOMEX, INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FL.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH/EAST
ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT`S THIS FEATURE THAT WILL GOVERN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TN VALLEY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID, WITH WAA ONGOING DURING THIS PROCESS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE DECREASED DOWN TO 20% BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING, VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA. ERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER/SFC LOW TO THE SE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT, WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S IN NERN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWING A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
IN THEIR TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA IN WAA SHRA FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES,
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS IN THE NRN GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTN, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  50  63  48 /   0  20  20  10
SHOALS        68  51  66  48 /   0  20  20  10
VINEMONT      67  49  63  46 /   0  20  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  67  48  62  45 /   0  10  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   66  49  62  45 /   0  20  20  10
FORT PAYNE    66  47  63  44 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 170545 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170545 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 170457 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1157 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION [06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO START OFF THIS TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE LOCAL
TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER 17/09Z...WITH MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS LINGERING
INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. IFR CIGS SHOULD BE LIMITED/LOWER IN
PROBABILITY...BUT MAY STILL SKIRT NEAR THE KPNS TERMINAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST AT
10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /21

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH INCREASED FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET OUT 20 NM...AND
5 TO AS HIGH AS 8 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  71  57  73  54 /  05  10  50  50  10
PENSACOLA   50  69  59  71  55 /  05  20  60  60  20
DESTIN      55  68  60  69  58 /  05  20  70  70  30
EVERGREEN   44  70  55  71  50 /  05  10  40  50  20
WAYNESBORO  41  70  55  73  51 /  05  10  20  20  10
CAMDEN      42  70  54  71  50 /  05  10  20  40  10
CRESTVIEW   43  71  57  70  51 /  05  20  60  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$

21/08





000
FXUS64 KBMX 170456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON COOLING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAK WEDGING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE WEAK LIFT
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRATUS DECK TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR CURRENT OBS...BUT LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S STILL LOOK GOOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY AROUND
4-6MPH ALL NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST. BUT VERY
LOCALIZED AND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT
FROST BY SUNRISE.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE
WITH A LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND A HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN MOISTURE AND INCREASE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. DUE TO THIS...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTOI AROUND 12Z. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST INCLUDED
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTOI BUT THEY COULD SNEAK UP TO KMGM AS WELL.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z AND SHOULD SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNSET.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 170252 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
952 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON COOLING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAK WEDGING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE WEAK LIFT
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRATUS DECK TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR CURRENT OBS...BUT LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S STILL LOOK GOOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY AROUND
4-6MPH ALL NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST. BUT VERY
LOCALIZED AND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT
FROST BY SUNRISE.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE NEAR MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AT KMGM AND KTOI BUT
HAVE LEFT VFR FOR NOW. WINDS INCREASE OVER 7 KTS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
POSSIBLE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 628 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
ON TAP TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA MAY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE NAM MODEL DOES SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WEST ALABAMA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEDGE FRONT...BUT IT IS
AN OUTLIER AND WILL KEEP RAIN FREE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AN DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THIS
SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING AND MENTIONED ONLY
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN FREE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AND LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY. THE
GFS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL HINDER THE RETURN FLOW OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY MAY BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL. DE TO THE LACK OF RETURN FLOW..SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 60 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS
SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE NOT THAT HIGH. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  64  45  66  43 /   0  10  20  30  10
ANNISTON    39  65  48  67  46 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  41  66  50  67  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  40  69  52  68  48 /   0  10  30  30  10
CALERA      41  68  52  68  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
AUBURN      41  64  50  64  48 /  10  10  20  40  20
MONTGOMERY  41  69  54  68  50 /  10  10  30  40  20
TROY        42  68  53  65  50 /  10  10  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 170212 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170212 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170212 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170212 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 170101 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
749 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE [00Z DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO INVADE THE
FLYING AREA CREATING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG OUR COASTAL AREA BEFORE DAY BREAK AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD.  AFTERNOON HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD LOW END VFR AND UPPER END MVFR CEILINGS. /08
JW

**************************PREVIOUS DISCUSSION******************

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
BEGINNINGS OF A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE LOW STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST. MOST OF THE FA WILL SEE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL CONTINUING. /16

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING THE PHASING OF
A NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH
A SFC LOW DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND TRACKING EAST TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA FRI NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...
BUT IT DELAYS THE PHASING BY ABOUT 12 HRS...WHICH RESULTS IN THE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND KEEPING THE BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. THIS FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD THIS
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF.
THIS RESULTS IN RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN EARNEST ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...WITH A LARGER SHIELD OF RAIN LIKELY SPREADING INTO
AREAS EAST OF I-65 LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND COVINGTON COUNTY AL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STORM
SYSTEM STEADILY MOVES FURTHER EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN
QUICKLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. WE HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL
TOTALS TO A HALF INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...HIGHEST OVER OKALOOSA COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THESE TOTALS
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
TOTALS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED WEST OF I-65.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES GIVEN THE CLOUDS/RAIN. LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE 50S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS...COOLEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 70/LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE BAJA MOVES EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
BY NEXT TUESDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WELL INLAND FROM
THE COAST. NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE COAST...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
NEAR IFR LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME RISING OF THE BASES AS TEMPS
WARM...BUT AM EXPECTING GENERAL MVFR LEVEL CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THURS. /16

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FORM LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH...THEN EAST OF THE MARINE FA...WITH THE MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLIES BECOMING STRONG NORTHERLIES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL SETTLE ALTER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA...FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  71  57  73  54 /  05  10  50  50  10
PENSACOLA   50  69  59  71  55 /  05  20  60  50  20
DESTIN      55  68  60  69  58 /  05  20  70  70  30
EVERGREEN   44  70  55  71  50 /  05  10  40  50  20
WAYNESBORO  41  70  55  73  51 /  05  10  20  20  10
CAMDEN      42  70  54  71  50 /  05  10  20  40  10
CRESTVIEW   43  71  57  70  51 /  05  20  60  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR
THE      FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS
FROM      DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM      PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...     PERDIDO
BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO      PENSACOLA FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO      PASCAGOULA MS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KBMX 162328
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
ON TAP TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA MAY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE NAM MODEL DOES SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WEST ALABAMA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEDGE FRONT...BUT IT IS
AN OUTLIER AND WILL KEEP RAIN FREE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AN DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THIS
SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING AND MENTIONED ONLY
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN FREE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AND LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY. THE
GFS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL HINDER THE RETURN FLOW OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY MAY BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL. DE TO THE LACK OF RETURN FLOW..SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 60 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS
SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE NOT THAT HIGH. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE NEAR MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AT KMGM AND KTOI BUT
HAVE LEFT VFR FOR NOW. WINDS INCREASE OVER 7 KTS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
POSSIBLE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 162316 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 162316 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 162316 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 162316 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 162031
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
331 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
BEGINNINGS OF A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE LOW STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST. MOST OF THE FA WILL SEE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL CONTINUING. /16

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING THE PHASING OF
A NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH
A SFC LOW DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND TRACKING EAST TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA FRI NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...
BUT IT DELAYS THE PHASING BY ABOUT 12 HRS...WHICH RESULTS IN THE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND KEEPING THE BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. THIS FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD THIS
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF.
THIS RESULTS IN RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN EARNEST ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...WITH A LARGER SHIELD OF RAIN LIKELY SPREADING INTO
AREAS EAST OF I-65 LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND COVINGTON COUNTY AL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STORM
SYSTEM STEADILY MOVES FURTHER EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN
QUICKLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. WE HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL
TOTALS TO A HALF INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...HIGHEST OVER OKALOOSA COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THESE TOTALS
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
TOTALS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED WEST OF I-65.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES GIVEN THE CLOUDS/RAIN. LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE 50S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS...COOLEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 70/LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE BAJA MOVES EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
BY NEXT TUESDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WELL INLAND FROM
THE COAST. NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE COAST...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
NEAR IFR LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME RISING OF THE BASES AS TEMPS
WARM...BUT AM EXPECTING GENERAL MVFR LEVEL CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THURS. /16

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FORM LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH...THEN EAST OF THE MARINE FA...WITH THE MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLIES BECOMING STRONG NORTHERLIES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL SETTLE ALTER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA...FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  71  57  73  54 /  05  10  50  50  10
PENSACOLA   50  69  59  71  55 /  05  20  60  50  20
DESTIN      55  68  60  69  58 /  05  20  70  70  30
EVERGREEN   44  70  55  71  50 /  05  10  40  50  20
WAYNESBORO  41  70  55  73  51 /  05  10  20  20  10
CAMDEN      42  70  54  71  50 /  05  10  20  40  10
CRESTVIEW   43  71  57  70  51 /  05  20  60  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 162030
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
330 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
ON TAP TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA MAY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE NAM MODEL DOES SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WEST ALABAMA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEDGE FRONT...BUT IT IS
AN OUTLIER AND WILL KEEP RAIN FREE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AN DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THIS
SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING AND MENTIONED ONLY
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN FREE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AND LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY. THE
GFS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL HINDER THE RETURN FLOW OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY MAY BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL. DE TO THE LACK OF RETURN FLOW..SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 60 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS
SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE NOT THAT HIGH. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING IN A DECENT MOIST LAYER BETWEEN
925MB AND 850MB. WILL INTRODUCE A VFR CEILING AT TOI AND MGM FOR
TOMORROW BUT THIS COULD WIND UP BEING MVFR LATER ON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  64  45  66  43 /   0  10  20  30  10
ANNISTON    39  65  48  67  46 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  41  66  50  67  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  40  69  52  68  48 /   0  10  30  30  10
CALERA      41  68  52  68  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
AUBURN      41  64  50  64  48 /  10  10  20  40  20
MONTGOMERY  41  69  54  68  50 /  10  10  30  40  20
TROY        42  68  53  65  50 /  10  10  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 162021
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 12-14 KTS.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  69  49  67 /   0  10  20  30
SHOALS        40  69  50  69 /   0  10  30  30
VINEMONT      40  68  48  66 /   0  10  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  38  68  47  65 /   0  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   40  67  48  64 /   0  10  20  20
FORT PAYNE    37  67  46  65 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 162021
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 12-14 KTS.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  69  49  67 /   0  10  20  30
SHOALS        40  69  50  69 /   0  10  30  30
VINEMONT      40  68  48  66 /   0  10  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  38  68  47  65 /   0  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   40  67  48  64 /   0  10  20  20
FORT PAYNE    37  67  46  65 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 161728 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1215 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST.
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE COAST...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING NEAR IFR LEVEL
CIGS DEVELOPING UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME RISING OF THE BASES AS TEMPS WARM...BUT
AM EXPECTING GENERAL MVFR LEVEL CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THURS.


/16
&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE..

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 161725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1225 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TODAY`S FORECAST. BIRMINGHAM MORNING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING IS VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND LOWERED AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS DRIER ALOFT
SHOULD MIX DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING IN A DECENT MOIST LAYER BETWEEN
925MB AND 850MB. WILL INTRODUCE A VFR CEILING AT TOI AND MGM FOR
TOMORROW BUT THIS COULD WIND UP BEING MVFR LATER ON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 161705 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1051 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WERE AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...HSV REACHING 33 DEGREES...MSL 36...DCU 32. LOCATIONS IN NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT PERSISTED OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR AND ASSISTED
WITH THE LACK OF FROST. THIS MORNING TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUITE WELL
WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S. LOOKING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH...WILL STILL
BE BELOW SEASONABLY NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO ITS INFLUENCE
TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 12-14 KTS.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161705 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1051 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WERE AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...HSV REACHING 33 DEGREES...MSL 36...DCU 32. LOCATIONS IN NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT PERSISTED OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR AND ASSISTED
WITH THE LACK OF FROST. THIS MORNING TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUITE WELL
WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S. LOOKING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH...WILL STILL
BE BELOW SEASONABLY NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO ITS INFLUENCE
TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 12-14 KTS.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161705 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1051 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WERE AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...HSV REACHING 33 DEGREES...MSL 36...DCU 32. LOCATIONS IN NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT PERSISTED OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR AND ASSISTED
WITH THE LACK OF FROST. THIS MORNING TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUITE WELL
WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S. LOOKING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH...WILL STILL
BE BELOW SEASONABLY NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO ITS INFLUENCE
TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 12-14 KTS.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161705 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1051 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WERE AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...HSV REACHING 33 DEGREES...MSL 36...DCU 32. LOCATIONS IN NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT PERSISTED OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR AND ASSISTED
WITH THE LACK OF FROST. THIS MORNING TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUITE WELL
WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S. LOOKING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH...WILL STILL
BE BELOW SEASONABLY NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO ITS INFLUENCE
TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 12-14 KTS.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 161554
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1054 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TODAY`S FORECAST. BIRMINGHAM MORNING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING IS VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND LOWERED AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS DRIER ALOFT
SHOULD MIX DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST
BY THE AFTERNOON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A FEW KNOTS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN AS
QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 30S...WITH OUR USUAL COOLER SPOTS ALREADY BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT WITH
THE WINDS...WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT FOR AT
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE
60S TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THOUGH NOT MUCH...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES TO THE EAST...IT WILL AMPLIFY...BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH VARYING
STRENGTHS BETWEEN MODELS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST...AND THE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA...MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW...AND
RAIN CONVERGE WILL BE MINIMAL AS WELL. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS POP FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCING NICE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVER THE WEEKEND.

BY THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GFS BRINGS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ROUGHLY 24 HOURS
AFTER THE GFS. WITH THE HIGH DISCREPANCIES...DID NOT INCREASE POPS
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NICE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  38  64  47  67 /   0   0  10  20  30
ANNISTON    62  38  64  49  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  63  40  64  50  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  64  40  67  52  71 /   0   0  10  30  40
CALERA      63  42  65  51  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
AUBURN      62  39  63  49  67 /   0  10  10  20  30
MONTGOMERY  65  43  67  53  70 /   0  10  10  30  30
TROY        64  41  68  53  69 /   0  10  10  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 161551 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1051 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WERE AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...HSV REACHING 33 DEGREES...MSL 36...DCU 32. LOCATIONS IN NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT PERSISTED OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR AND ASSISTED
WITH THE LACK OF FROST. THIS MORNING TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUITE WELL
WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S. LOOKING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH...WILL STILL
BE BELOW SEASONABLY NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO ITS INFLUENCE
TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND
FORECASTS AT BOTH SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

TT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. AS IT DOES SO, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THEN, A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM`S RAPID EXIT IS THE ONCOMING WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST TODAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING OF THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HEATING (AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE/LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS) TO
QUICKLY MODIFY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THUS, DESPITE THE COLD AIR
DAMMING, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.

THEN, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTING 5-10 MPH WINDS TO REMAIN WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THE WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING THAT COULD RESULT IN FROST FORMING.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER NW AL, AND LOWER 60S OVER NE AL (DUE
TO COLD AIR DAMMING EFFECTS). ALOFT, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND MERGING WITH A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX (ENVELOPED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET). THIS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE (SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST) BEGINNING OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOOK AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATES THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND RETAINED SHOWERS, AND HAVE RETAINED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
THE MORE CONSISTENT WITH IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND MOVING SSE ACROSS GA/FL/S AL UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY, BUT HAVE
KEPT LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS THEN CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL SCALE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR EDDIES MOVING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUS, THOUGH THE TIMING
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, HAVE LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SCHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A TREND UPWARD IN TEMPS FOR DAY 6/7.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 161551 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1051 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WERE AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...HSV REACHING 33 DEGREES...MSL 36...DCU 32. LOCATIONS IN NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT PERSISTED OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR AND ASSISTED
WITH THE LACK OF FROST. THIS MORNING TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUITE WELL
WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S. LOOKING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH...WILL STILL
BE BELOW SEASONABLY NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO ITS INFLUENCE
TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND
FORECASTS AT BOTH SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

TT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. AS IT DOES SO, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THEN, A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM`S RAPID EXIT IS THE ONCOMING WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST TODAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING OF THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HEATING (AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE/LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS) TO
QUICKLY MODIFY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THUS, DESPITE THE COLD AIR
DAMMING, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.

THEN, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTING 5-10 MPH WINDS TO REMAIN WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THE WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING THAT COULD RESULT IN FROST FORMING.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER NW AL, AND LOWER 60S OVER NE AL (DUE
TO COLD AIR DAMMING EFFECTS). ALOFT, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND MERGING WITH A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX (ENVELOPED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET). THIS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE (SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST) BEGINNING OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOOK AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATES THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND RETAINED SHOWERS, AND HAVE RETAINED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
THE MORE CONSISTENT WITH IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND MOVING SSE ACROSS GA/FL/S AL UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY, BUT HAVE
KEPT LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS THEN CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL SCALE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR EDDIES MOVING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUS, THOUGH THE TIMING
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, HAVE LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SCHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A TREND UPWARD IN TEMPS FOR DAY 6/7.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 161215 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
715 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE
FREEZE WARNING. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SFC WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST RESULTING IN WINDS THAT WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN ON TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH LOW 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE PLAINS
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.  A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COASTAL STATES AND EXTENDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.  MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN
IN 295-305K LAYER WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
MORNING THEN INCREASES ESPECIALLY NEAR 295K BY MIDDAY NEAR THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PORTION.  ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES IN THE BASE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF RESULT IN MODEST TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY WHILE THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CONTINUE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THE ECMWF...NAM AND GEM FORM AN UPPER LOW AS THE TROF
AXIS PASSES THE FORECAST AREA.  THE GFS HAS A REINFORCING SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THOUGH DOES DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM DEVELOP A DEEPER
SURFACE LOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...THOUGH PLACEMENT VARIES
FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF PER THE ECMWF AND NAM TO EAST OF THE AREA
PER THE GEM.  WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A WETTER SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
THIS GENERAL SOLUTION.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR THE EASTERN PORTION FRIDAY NIGHT.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  A DRY
FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RETURN FOR MONDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
RETURNS MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.  THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES INTO
THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
BRINGS A TRAILING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION CLOSER TO THE
APPROACHING FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE PERIOD TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW THAT DECREASES THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. /13

FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP TO NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY BUT WILL NOT
SATISFY DURATION OR OTHER REQUIREMENTS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  47  71  56  72 /  00  05  20  50  40
PENSACOLA   65  50  71  58  71 /  00  05  20  50  50
DESTIN      64  51  70  59  69 /  00  05  20  50  50
EVERGREEN   68  42  71  53  71 /  00  05  10  30  40
WAYNESBORO  67  39  71  54  73 /  00  05  10  20  20
CAMDEN      67  41  71  53  71 /  00  05  05  20  40
CRESTVIEW   67  39  72  55  72 /  00  05  20  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 161146 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE COLD AIRMASS,
YESTERDAY, IS NOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND. A ZONAL SPLIT FLOW REGIME
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HEARTLAND WITH EVIDENCE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING OVER WY/MT FROM ALBERTA.
THIS NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COLD SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN PLAINS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF 08Z, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS ARE
KMSL AND KHSV WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF AS QUICKLY DUE TO 5-9
MPH WINDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

SL.77

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
/ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. AS IT DOES SO, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THEN, A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM`S RAPID EXIT IS THE ONCOMING WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST TODAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING OF THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HEATING (AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE/LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS) TO
QUICKLY MODIFY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THUS, DESPITE THE COLD AIR
DAMMING, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.

THEN, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTING 5-10 MPH WINDS TO REMAIN WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THE WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING THAT COULD RESULT IN FROST FORMING.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER NW AL, AND LOWER 60S OVER NE AL (DUE
TO COLD AIR DAMMING EFFECTS). ALOFT, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND MERGING WITH A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX (ENVELOPED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET). THIS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE (SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST) BEGINNING OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOOK AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATES THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND RETAINED SHOWERS, AND HAVE RETAINED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
THE MORE CONSISTENT WITH IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND MOVING SSE ACROSS GA/FL/S AL UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY, BUT HAVE
KEPT LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS THEN CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL SCALE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR EDDIES MOVING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUS, THOUGH THE TIMING
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, HAVE LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SCHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A TREND UPWARD IN TEMPS FOR DAY 6/7.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND
FORECASTS AT BOTH SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 161146 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE COLD AIRMASS,
YESTERDAY, IS NOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND. A ZONAL SPLIT FLOW REGIME
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HEARTLAND WITH EVIDENCE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING OVER WY/MT FROM ALBERTA.
THIS NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COLD SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN PLAINS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF 08Z, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS ARE
KMSL AND KHSV WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF AS QUICKLY DUE TO 5-9
MPH WINDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

SL.77

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
/ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. AS IT DOES SO, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THEN, A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM`S RAPID EXIT IS THE ONCOMING WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST TODAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING OF THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HEATING (AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE/LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS) TO
QUICKLY MODIFY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THUS, DESPITE THE COLD AIR
DAMMING, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.

THEN, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTING 5-10 MPH WINDS TO REMAIN WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THE WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING THAT COULD RESULT IN FROST FORMING.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER NW AL, AND LOWER 60S OVER NE AL (DUE
TO COLD AIR DAMMING EFFECTS). ALOFT, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND MERGING WITH A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX (ENVELOPED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET). THIS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE (SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST) BEGINNING OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOOK AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATES THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND RETAINED SHOWERS, AND HAVE RETAINED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
THE MORE CONSISTENT WITH IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND MOVING SSE ACROSS GA/FL/S AL UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY, BUT HAVE
KEPT LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS THEN CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL SCALE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR EDDIES MOVING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUS, THOUGH THE TIMING
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, HAVE LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SCHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A TREND UPWARD IN TEMPS FOR DAY 6/7.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND
FORECASTS AT BOTH SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 161139
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A FEW KNOTS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN AS
QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 30S...WITH OUR USUAL COOLER SPOTS ALREADY BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT WITH
THE WINDS...WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT FOR AT
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE
60S TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THOUGH NOT MUCH...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES TO THE EAST...IT WILL AMPLIFY...BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH VARYING
STRENGTHS BETWEEN MODELS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST...AND THE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA...MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW...AND
RAIN CONVERGE WILL BE MINIMAL AS WELL. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS POP FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCING NICE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVER THE WEEKEND.

BY THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GFS BRINGS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ROUGHLY 24 HOURS
AFTER THE GFS. WITH THE HIGH DISCREPANCIES...DID NOT INCREASE POPS
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NICE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST
BY THE AFTERNOON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 160914
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
414 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SFC WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST RESULTING IN WINDS THAT WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN ON TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH LOW 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE PLAINS
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.  A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COASTAL STATES AND EXTENDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.  MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN
IN 295-305K LAYER WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
MORNING THEN INCREASES ESPECIALLY NEAR 295K BY MIDDAY NEAR THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PORTION.  ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES IN THE BASE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF RESULT IN MODEST TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY WHILE THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CONTINUE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THE ECMWF...NAM AND GEM FORM AN UPPER LOW AS THE TROF
AXIS PASSES THE FORECAST AREA.  THE GFS HAS A REINFORCING SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THOUGH DOES DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM DEVELOP A DEEPER
SURFACE LOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...THOUGH PLACEMENT VARIES
FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF PER THE ECMWF AND NAM TO EAST OF THE AREA
PER THE GEM.  WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A WETTER SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
THIS GENERAL SOLUTION.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR THE EASTERN PORTION FRIDAY NIGHT.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. /29

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  A DRY
FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RETURN FOR MONDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
RETURNS MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.  THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES INTO
THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
BRINGS A TRAILING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION CLOSER TO THE
APPROACHING FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE PERIOD TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW THAT DECREASES THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP TO NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY BUT WILL NOT
SATISFY DURATION OR OTHER REQUIREMENTS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  47  71  56  72 /  00  05  20  50  40
PENSACOLA   65  50  71  58  71 /  00  05  20  50  50
DESTIN      64  51  70  59  69 /  00  05  20  50  50
EVERGREEN   68  42  71  53  71 /  00  05  10  30  40
WAYNESBORO  67  39  71  54  73 /  00  05  10  20  20
CAMDEN      67  41  71  53  71 /  00  05  05  20  40
CRESTVIEW   67  39  72  55  72 /  00  05  20  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GREENE...PERRY...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 160833
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A FEW KNOTS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...SO TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN AS QUICKLY AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER
30S...WITH OUR USUAL COOLER SPOTS ALREADY BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT WITH THE
WINDS...WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT FOR AT
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE
60S TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THOUGH NOT MUCH...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST...IT WILL AMPLIFY...BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH VARYING STRENGTHS
BETWEEN MODELS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST...AND
THE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW...AND RAIN CONVERGE
WILL BE MINIMAL AS WELL. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCING
NICE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE WEEKEND.

BY THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ROUGHLY 24 HOURS AFTER THE
GFS. WITH THE HIGH DISCREPANCIES...DID NOT INCREASE POPS FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NICE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY THE WINDS AS THE CHANGING
FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS CHANGE WITH THE BUILDING OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL STAY UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS A TAD MORE THAN NORMAL FOR
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS ON WEDNESDAY
TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BECOMING MORE
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

08/MK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  38  64  47  67 /   0   0  10  20  30
ANNISTON    62  38  64  49  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  64  40  64  50  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  65  40  67  52  71 /   0   0  10  30  40
CALERA      63  42  65  51  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
AUBURN      63  39  63  49  67 /   0  10  10  20  30
MONTGOMERY  65  43  67  53  70 /   0  10  10  30  30
TROY        65  41  68  53  69 /   0  10  10  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 160823
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE COLD AIRMASS,
YESTERDAY, IS NOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND. A ZONAL SPLIT FLOW REGIME
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HEARTLAND WITH EVIDENCE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING OVER WY/MT FROM ALBERTA.
THIS NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COLD SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN PLAINS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF 08Z, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS ARE
KMSL AND KHSV WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF AS QUICKLY DUE TO 5-9
MPH WINDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

SL.77

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. AS IT DOES SO, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THEN, A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM`S RAPID EXIT IS THE ONCOMING WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST TODAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING OF THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HEATING (AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE/LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS) TO
QUICKLY MODIFY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THUS, DESPITE THE COLD AIR
DAMMING, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.

THEN, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTING 5-10 MPH WINDS TO REMAIN WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THE WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING THAT COULD RESULT IN FROST FORMING.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER NW AL, AND LOWER 60S OVER NE AL (DUE
TO COLD AIR DAMMING EFFECTS). ALOFT, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND MERGING WITH A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX (ENVELOPED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET). THIS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE (SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST) BEGINNING OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOOK AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATES THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND RETAINED SHOWERS, AND HAVE RETAINED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
THE MORE CONSISTENT WITH IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND MOVING SSE ACROSS GA/FL/S AL UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY, BUT HAVE
KEPT LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS THEN CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL SCALE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR EDDIES MOVING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUS, THOUGH THE TIMING
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, HAVE LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SCHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A TREND UPWARD IN TEMPS FOR DAY 6/7.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    61  38  68  47 /   0   0   0  20
SHOALS        61  38  69  48 /   0   0   0  20
VINEMONT      59  37  66  45 /   0   0   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  60  36  65  45 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   60  35  64  44 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    61  35  63  43 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 160823
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE COLD AIRMASS,
YESTERDAY, IS NOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND. A ZONAL SPLIT FLOW REGIME
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HEARTLAND WITH EVIDENCE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING OVER WY/MT FROM ALBERTA.
THIS NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COLD SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN PLAINS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF 08Z, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS ARE
KMSL AND KHSV WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF AS QUICKLY DUE TO 5-9
MPH WINDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

SL.77

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. AS IT DOES SO, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THEN, A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM`S RAPID EXIT IS THE ONCOMING WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST TODAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING OF THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HEATING (AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE/LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS) TO
QUICKLY MODIFY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THUS, DESPITE THE COLD AIR
DAMMING, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.

THEN, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTING 5-10 MPH WINDS TO REMAIN WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THE WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING THAT COULD RESULT IN FROST FORMING.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER NW AL, AND LOWER 60S OVER NE AL (DUE
TO COLD AIR DAMMING EFFECTS). ALOFT, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND MERGING WITH A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX (ENVELOPED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET). THIS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE (SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST) BEGINNING OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOOK AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATES THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND RETAINED SHOWERS, AND HAVE RETAINED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
THE MORE CONSISTENT WITH IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND MOVING SSE ACROSS GA/FL/S AL UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY, BUT HAVE
KEPT LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS THEN CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL SCALE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR EDDIES MOVING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUS, THOUGH THE TIMING
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, HAVE LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SCHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A TREND UPWARD IN TEMPS FOR DAY 6/7.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    61  38  68  47 /   0   0   0  20
SHOALS        61  38  69  48 /   0   0   0  20
VINEMONT      59  37  66  45 /   0   0   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  60  36  65  45 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   60  35  64  44 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    61  35  63  43 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 160502 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1202 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT AND A FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE TEMPERATURE AT HALEYVILLE HAS ALREADY DROPPED DOWN TO 37
AT 9 PM AND TEMPERATURES THERE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S NEAR
SUNRISE. WITH STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS REMAINED
ABOUT WHETHER WINDS WOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT. SO FAR...WINDS HAVE
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND GONE CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...SINCE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE RECORD...IF
MONTGOMERY GETS DOWN TO FREEZING THIS WILL BE THE LATEST FREEZE ON
RECORD. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
EVEN THOUGH THE RECORD LATEST FREEZE WILL NOT BE BROKEN FURTHER TO
THE NORTH (IE...BIRMINGHAM...TUSCALOOSA...AND ANNISTON) LOWS
TONIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL STILL RANK IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AS FAR AS LATE SEASON FREEZES. FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED SOME OF
THE RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY COLDER THAN FORECAST AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY DEW POINTS.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY THE WINDS AS THE CHANGING
FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS CHANGE WITH THE BUILDING OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL STAY UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS A TAD MORE THAN NORMAL FOR
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS ON WEDNESDAY
TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BECOMING MORE
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

08/MK

&&

.CLIMATE...

LATEST FREEZE ON RECORD

BIRMINGHAM       4/23/1986
MONTGOMERY       4/13/1940
TUSCALOOSA       4/21/1953
ANNISTON         4/23/1986

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH

LOCATION     TEMPERATURE      YEAR(S)

BIRMINGHAM       32          1983, 1962, 1950
MONTGOMERY       36          2008, 1950
TUSCALOOSA       31          1950
ANNISTON         30          1950

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  61  37  66  44 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    30  63  35  66  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  31  65  38  67  50 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  30  66  40  69  53 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      32  64  39  68  51 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      31  64  37  67  48 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  32  66  40  70  53 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        30  66  41  69  53 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$

05/08





000
FXUS64 KHUN 160501 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
AT 9 PM...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
MS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS PUSHED MAINLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS
FROM BECOMING LIGHT EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 SO FAR THIS EVENING. AT 9
PM OBSERVATIONS AT SCOTTSBORO...WINCHESTER...AND THE HUNTSVILLE
AIRPORT ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 8 KTS A RESULT.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
PUSH EAST ONLY VERY SLOWLY AND FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN PA BY DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OFF THIS
SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO WINDS
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4 OR 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THAT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH NE...MODELS INCREASE THE
GRADIENT WINDS AROUND 3 AM TROUGH DAYBREAK TO AROUND 6KTS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
LOWER TO MID 40S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ONLY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS COULD EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING GOING AND ONLY TWEAK
CURRENT LOWS DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY. ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WILL BE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 160501 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
AT 9 PM...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
MS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS PUSHED MAINLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS
FROM BECOMING LIGHT EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 SO FAR THIS EVENING. AT 9
PM OBSERVATIONS AT SCOTTSBORO...WINCHESTER...AND THE HUNTSVILLE
AIRPORT ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 8 KTS A RESULT.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
PUSH EAST ONLY VERY SLOWLY AND FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN PA BY DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OFF THIS
SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO WINDS
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4 OR 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THAT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH NE...MODELS INCREASE THE
GRADIENT WINDS AROUND 3 AM TROUGH DAYBREAK TO AROUND 6KTS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
LOWER TO MID 40S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ONLY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS COULD EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING GOING AND ONLY TWEAK
CURRENT LOWS DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY. ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WILL BE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 160453
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION [06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  66  48  71  57 /  00  00  05  20  30
PENSACOLA   40  65  51  71  59 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      43  67  53  71  61 /  00  00  05  20  40
EVERGREEN   31  66  41  72  54 /  00  00  05  10  30
WAYNESBORO  30  67  41  71  55 /  00  00  05  10  30
CAMDEN      30  66  42  71  53 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   33  69  40  73  56 /  00  00  05  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GREENE...PERRY...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 160233
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
933 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT AND A FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE TEMPERATURE AT HALEYVILLE HAS ALREADY DROPPED DOWN TO 37
AT 9 PM AND TEMPERATURES THERE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S NEAR
SUNRISE. WITH STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS REMAINED
ABOUT WHETHER WINDS WOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT. SO FAR...WINDS HAVE
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND GONE CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...SINCE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE RECORD...IF
MONTGOMERY GETS DOWN TO FREEZING THIS WILL BE THE LATEST FREEZE ON
RECORD. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
EVEN THOUGH THE RECORD LATEST FREEZE WILL NOT BE BROKEN FURTHER TO
THE NORTH (IE...BIRMINGHAM...TUSCALOOSA...AND ANNISTON) LOWS
TONIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL STILL RANK IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AS FAR AS LATE SEASON FREEZES. FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED SOME OF
THE RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY COLDER THAN FORECAST AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY DEWPOINTS.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND BASICALLY A WIND FORECAST FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL RELAX SOME AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STAY UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS A TAD MORE THAN
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS ON WEDNESDAY TO
THE EAST...WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BECOMING MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY
DURING THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

08/MK


&&

.CLIMATE...

LATEST FREEZE ON RECORD

BIRMINGHAM       4/23/1986
MONTGOMERY       4/13/1940
TUSCALOOSA       4/21/1953
ANNISTON         4/23/1986

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH

LOCATION     TEMPERATURE      YEAR(S)

BIRMINGHAM       32          1983, 1962, 1950
MONTGOMERY       36          2008, 1950
TUSCALOOSA       31          1950
ANNISTON         30          1950

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 160216 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
916 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
MS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS PUSHED MAINLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS
FROM BECOMING LIGHT EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 SO FAR THIS EVENING. AT 9
PM OBSERVATIONS AT SCOTTSBORO...WINCHESTER...AND THE HUNTSVILLE
AIRPORT ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 8 KTS A RESULT.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
PUSH EAST ONLY VERY SLOWLY AND FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN PA BY DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OFF THIS
SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO WINDS
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4 OR 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH NE...MODELS INCREASE THE GRADIENT WINDS
AROUND 3 AM TROUGH DAYBREAK TO AROUND 6KTS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
LOWER TO MID 40S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ONLY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS COULD EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING GOING AND ONLY TWEAK
CURRENT LOWS DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY. ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WILL BE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 606 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER WINDS TO AROUND 4 KTS AROUND 15/06Z AS ITS
EASTERN EDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO BOTH TAFS SITES. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 160216 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
916 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
MS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS PUSHED MAINLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS
FROM BECOMING LIGHT EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 SO FAR THIS EVENING. AT 9
PM OBSERVATIONS AT SCOTTSBORO...WINCHESTER...AND THE HUNTSVILLE
AIRPORT ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 8 KTS A RESULT.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
PUSH EAST ONLY VERY SLOWLY AND FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN PA BY DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OFF THIS
SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO WINDS
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4 OR 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH NE...MODELS INCREASE THE GRADIENT WINDS
AROUND 3 AM TROUGH DAYBREAK TO AROUND 6KTS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
LOWER TO MID 40S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ONLY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS COULD EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING GOING AND ONLY TWEAK
CURRENT LOWS DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY. ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WILL BE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 606 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER WINDS TO AROUND 4 KTS AROUND 15/06Z AS ITS
EASTERN EDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO BOTH TAFS SITES. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 160216 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
916 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
MS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS PUSHED MAINLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS
FROM BECOMING LIGHT EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 SO FAR THIS EVENING. AT 9
PM OBSERVATIONS AT SCOTTSBORO...WINCHESTER...AND THE HUNTSVILLE
AIRPORT ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 8 KTS A RESULT.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
PUSH EAST ONLY VERY SLOWLY AND FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN PA BY DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OFF THIS
SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO WINDS
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4 OR 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH NE...MODELS INCREASE THE GRADIENT WINDS
AROUND 3 AM TROUGH DAYBREAK TO AROUND 6KTS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
LOWER TO MID 40S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ONLY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS COULD EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING GOING AND ONLY TWEAK
CURRENT LOWS DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY. ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WILL BE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 606 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER WINDS TO AROUND 4 KTS AROUND 15/06Z AS ITS
EASTERN EDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO BOTH TAFS SITES. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 160216 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
916 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
MS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS PUSHED MAINLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS
FROM BECOMING LIGHT EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 SO FAR THIS EVENING. AT 9
PM OBSERVATIONS AT SCOTTSBORO...WINCHESTER...AND THE HUNTSVILLE
AIRPORT ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 8 KTS A RESULT.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
PUSH EAST ONLY VERY SLOWLY AND FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN PA BY DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OFF THIS
SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO WINDS
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4 OR 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH NE...MODELS INCREASE THE GRADIENT WINDS
AROUND 3 AM TROUGH DAYBREAK TO AROUND 6KTS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
LOWER TO MID 40S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ONLY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS COULD EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING GOING AND ONLY TWEAK
CURRENT LOWS DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY. ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WILL BE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 606 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER WINDS TO AROUND 4 KTS AROUND 15/06Z AS ITS
EASTERN EDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO BOTH TAFS SITES. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 152359 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
659 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...WIND SPEEDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING AND WE HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 6 PM CDT. WE INCREASED SKY COVERAGE A BIT THIS EVENING
AS HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD THAN
ANTICIPATED. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS LOOK ON TRACK...WITH A
RECORD BREAKING COLD NIGHT STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. /21

&&

.AVIATION [00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  66  48  71  57 /  00  00  05  20  30
PENSACOLA   40  65  51  71  59 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      43  67  53  71  61 /  00  00  05  20  40
EVERGREEN   31  66  41  72  54 /  00  00  05  10  30
WAYNESBORO  30  67  41  71  55 /  00  00  05  10  30
CAMDEN      30  66  42  71  53 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   33  69  40  73  56 /  00  00  05  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GREENE...PERRY...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 152348 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE HAS REACHED THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE CLOUDS TO EXIT EAST ALABAMA BY
SUNSET. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET BUT THEY
WILL NOT LIKELY GO CALM UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT...BUT
THE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FROST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF ALABAMA AND THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND EXPECT AND INCREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS PREDICT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS KEEP THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OFFSHORE...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 50 PERCENT ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. THE RAIN QUICKLY COMES TO AN END
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
CONVECTION AS IT PHASES UP THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROFS...
FORECASTING AN MCS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
BOTTLE UP THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA DUE TO WEAKER
PHASING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND BASICALLY A WIND FORECAST FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL RELAX SOME AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STAY UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS A TAD MORE THAN
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS ON WEDNESDAY TO
THE EAST...WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BECOMING MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY
DURING THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  61  37  66  44 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    30  63  35  66  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  31  65  38  67  50 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  30  66  40  69  53 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      32  64  39  68  51 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      32  64  37  67  48 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  32  66  40  70  53 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        30  66  41  69  53 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$

58/08






000
FXUS64 KHUN 152306 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER WINDS TO AROUND 4 KTS AROUND 15/06Z AS ITS
EASTERN EDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO BOTH TAFS SITES. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 152306 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER WINDS TO AROUND 4 KTS AROUND 15/06Z AS ITS
EASTERN EDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO BOTH TAFS SITES. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 152043
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
343 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES AND A LATE SEASON INLAND FREEZE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...CLOUD COVER AND STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION HAS WON OUT AGAINST THE MID APRIL SUN AS MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE ONLY REACHED THE LOW TO MID 50S SO FAR...WELL BELOW
PREVIOUS FORECAST GUIDANCE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ADD A FEW MORE
DEGREES TO TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH
SFC RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS RESULTS
IN WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS...WE PLAN TO LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6PM. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WELL
INLAND LOCATIONS...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE WEAKEST.
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON LOW TEMPS IN THE 29-32 DEGREE RANGE
AND A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES IN MS...INLAND
MOBILE/BALDWIN...AND THE INTERIOR FL PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS SOME
MIXING WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. WE ALSO INCLUDED A
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LIGHTER WINDS. HERE IS A LOOK AT THE RECORD LOWS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO BE BROKEN...

CURRENT RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
              FORECAST      RECORD
MOBILE...     35            37 (2007)
PENSACOLA...  40            42 (1928 AND 1962)
EVERGREEN...  31            34 (2008)
DESTIN...     43            47 (2008)

HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM...[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY] A BROAD MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES BY LATE WED PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST AND DIG SLIGHTLY
GENERALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT...THEN DAMPEN
SLOWLY AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AT THE SFC STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES WILL HOLD STRONG THROUGH EARLY FRI THEN
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH THIS
PATTERN A WEAK SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
BY LATE THU NIGHT...SHIFTING EAST TO THE FL PENINSULA BY LATE FRI
MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST BY LATE THU NIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING SHIFTING EAST MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND LOWER AL
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRI SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AND
DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY BOTH THU AND FRI AS THE UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LATEST MAV/MEX GUIDANCE
THROUGH FRI UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR ALL AREAS
BOTH THU AND FRI DUE TO BETTER CLOUD COVER EACH DAY.

[SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...BETTER RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF OF MEXICO SAT THROUGH SUN FOLLOWED BY
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING
EASTWARD OVER THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY MON THROUGH TUES.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING LATE MON AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PDS. WILL CONTINUE TO
STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FRI THROUGH TUES
MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GUSTINESS
ABATING TONIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10AM WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WED NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN FOR FRI/SAT AS
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF. CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. 34/JFB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. BLUSTERY NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 24 TO 28 PERCENT FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND 28 TO 35 CLOSER TO
THE COAST. EASTERLY WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 10 MPH WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. AS
A RESULT NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME. LATER IN THE WEEK A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG MOSTLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  66  48  71  57 /  00  00  05  20  30
PENSACOLA   40  65  51  71  59 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      43  67  53  71  61 /  00  00  05  20  40
EVERGREEN   31  66  41  72  54 /  00  00  05  10  30
WAYNESBORO  30  67  41  71  55 /  00  00  05  10  30
CAMDEN      30  66  42  71  53 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   33  69  40  73  56 /  00  00  05  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GREENE...PERRY...WAYNE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 152018
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
318 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE HAS REACHED THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE CLOUDS TO EXIT EAST ALABAMA BY
SUNSET. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET BUT THEY
WILL NOT LIKELY GO CALM UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT...BUT
THE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FROST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF ALABAMA AND THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND EXPECT AND INCREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS PREDICT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS KEEP THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OFFSHORE...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 50 PERCENT ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. THE RAIN QUICKLY COMES TO AN END
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
CONVECTION AS IT PHASES UP THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROFS...
FORECASTING AN MCS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
BOTTLE UP THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA DUE TO WEAKER
PHASING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD AIR STRATOCU WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THEY PUSH OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH NEAR TOI AND 25 TO 30 KTS ELSEWHERE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  61  37  66  44 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    30  63  35  66  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  31  65  38  67  50 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  30  66  40  69  53 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      32  64  39  68  51 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      32  64  37  67  48 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  32  66  40  70  53 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        30  66  41  69  53 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 151920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY GUSTS /UP TO 25KTS/ WILL CEASE AROUND 00Z WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS DIMINISHING SOON AFTER. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    30  63  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        31  63  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      29  61  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  28  60  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   28  61  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    27  62  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 151920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY GUSTS /UP TO 25KTS/ WILL CEASE AROUND 00Z WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS DIMINISHING SOON AFTER. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    30  63  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        31  63  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      29  61  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  28  60  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   28  61  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    27  62  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 151920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY GUSTS /UP TO 25KTS/ WILL CEASE AROUND 00Z WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS DIMINISHING SOON AFTER. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    30  63  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        31  63  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      29  61  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  28  60  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   28  61  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    27  62  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 151920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY GUSTS /UP TO 25KTS/ WILL CEASE AROUND 00Z WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS DIMINISHING SOON AFTER. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    30  63  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        31  63  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      29  61  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  28  60  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   28  61  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    27  62  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 151832 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
132 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. MOST AREAS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 50S...EXCEPT
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO SENT AN UPDATED FREEZE WARNING TO ALSO INCLUDE PERRY AND GREENE
COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. THE REST OF THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING GIVEN
ENOUGH WIND/MIXING OVERNIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GUSTINESS
ABATING TONIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GREENE...PERRY...WAYNE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 151730 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1119 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
THE POST FRONTAL RAIN THAT FELL EARLY THIS MORNING HAD SLEET AND A
FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN AS WELL. SOME HIGHER ELEVATED LOCATIONS
REPORTED FLURRIES. THE 7AM REDSTONE ARSENAL SOUNDING SHOWED A SLEET
PROFILE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB WINDS AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. THE POST FRONTAL MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WAS DRIVEN OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LAYER BRINGS LIGHT PRECIP IN
FROM THE NORTH. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADJUSTED THE CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TEMP/CLOUD COVER TRENDS. ADDED IN
SPRINKLES TO THE CENTRAL AND NE COUNTIES WITH FLURRIES ONLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND
REPORTS RECEIVED. AFTER THIS PRECIP MOVES OUT...SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT RELAX UNTIL
TONIGHT SO WIND AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE THROUGHOUT TODAY...WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY GUSTS /UP TO 25KTS/ WILL CEASE AROUND 00Z WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS DIMINISHING SOON AFTER. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 151726
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE EAST AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE EASTWARD. EXPECT HIGHS TO
STRUGGLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S...WHILE 50S WILL BE IN STORE FOR EVERYONE FURTHER
SOUTH. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS
WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM THIS EVENING. FORECAST WIND GUSTS OF
35+ MPH FROM THE OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED...ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BE MORE
MARGINAL AROUND 20 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WHOLE CWA.

FOR TONIGHT...BASED OFF THE LATEST MAV/MET/EURO MOS GUIDANCE AND
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...A LATE SEASON FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA...AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
LESSEN AFTER 6 PM FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXPECT SOUTH OF I-85. THAT
AREA WILL HAVE 5-10 MPH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FROM
TODAY WILL BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
OCCUR. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH IN SHELTERED AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE PREVALENT. FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING APPEAR PROBABLE. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA EXPECT
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY 30-33 DEGREES. THE FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
MARGINAL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT. AND WHILE NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING...PLACES THAT ARE AT 32-33 DEGREES WILL PROBABLY
SEE AREAS OF FROST...WHICH CAN BE JUST AS DAMAGING TO VEGETATION.
SO RATHER THAN GETTING CUTE WITH A FREEZE WARNING NORTH AND FROST
ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SINCE NEARLY EVERYONE IS
FORECAST TO HIT FREEZING OR BELOW.

IF THIS FREEZE ACTUALLY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE RECORD SETTING IN
TERMS OF HOW LATE IT IS IN THE SPRING SEASON. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 8 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND TOP OUT IN THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE A
SECOND FREEZE AFTER TONIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

77/GLEASON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STARTS OFF FAIRLY AGREEABLE. AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS DEVELOPING WEST WHILE HEIGHTS RISE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL BUT WE CAN EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROF PUSHES OUR WAY AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A DISSIPATING
STAGE AS UPPER HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE INTO SUNDAY.

MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF
TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. INSTALLED POPS IN THE 20-45 RANGE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPWARD MOTION AND OVERALL LIFT
ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WHILE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS MUCH BELOW
THE PREVIOUS FEW SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TOO
HIGH OR EXCESSIVE THIS TIME OUT.

DO NOT HAVE POPS MENTIONED SUNDAY OR MONDAY AT THIS TIME. THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS DO NOT AGREE IN THIS TIME FRAME AT ALL. SO
EXPECT SOME ALTERATIONS HERE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD AIR STRATOCU WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THEY PUSH OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH NEAR TOI AND 25 TO 30 KTS ELSEWHERE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

88

&&

.CLIMATE...

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD LOWS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

CURRENT FORECAST AND RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR BIRMINGHAM AND
MONTGOMERY FOR APRIL 16TH...

                    BIRMINGHAM              MONTGOMERY

CURRENT FORECAST:   31                      32
RECORD:             32 (1950/1962/1983)     36 (1950/2008)

IF A FREEZE OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT BIRMINGHAM...IT WOULD BE
THE LATEST FREEZE DATE SINCE 1997...RANKING 6TH AMONG HISTORICAL
LAST FREEZES SINCE 1897.

IF A FREEZE OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT MONTGOMERY...IT WOULD SET
THE RECORD FOR THE LATEST FREEZE DATE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

AVERAGE AND HISTORICAL LAST FREEZES FOR BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY...

                            BIRMINGHAM      MONTGOMERY

AVERAGE LAST FREEZE:        MARCH 25        MARCH  8

HISTORICAL LAST FREEZES:    APRIL 23 1986   APRIL 13 1940
                            APRIL 22 1993   APRIL  9 2000
                            APRIL 21 1953   APRIL  8 2009
                            APRIL 21 1983   APRIL  7 1950
                            APRIL 18 1997   APRIL  6 1891
                            APRIL 16 1950   APRIL  4 1987
                            APRIL 16 1962   APRIL  2 1881

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 151619 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1119 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE POST FRONTAL RAIN THAT FELL EARLY THIS MORNING HAD SLEET AND A
FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN AS WELL. SOME HIGHER ELEVATED LOCATIONS
REPORTED FLURRIES. THE 7AM REDSTONE ARSENAL SOUNDING SHOWED A SLEET
PROFILE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB WINDS AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. THE POST FRONTAL MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WAS DRIVEN OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LAYER BRINGS LIGHT PRECIP IN
FROM THE NORTH. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADJUSTED THE CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TEMP/CLOUD COVER TRENDS. ADDED IN
SPRINKLES TO THE CENTRAL AND NE COUNTIES WITH FLURRIES ONLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND
REPORTS RECEIVED. AFTER THIS PRECIP MOVES OUT...SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT RELAX UNTIL
TONIGHT SO WIND AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE THROUGHOUT TODAY...WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW INSTANCES OF SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD...AS IT TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A CLEARING LINE NOW EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS RISING TO AND ABOVE VFR
IN THE 14-17Z TIMEFRAME...AS IT NEARS. NNW WINDS IN THE 15-25KT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KT IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NE AL IN THE POST
FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXITING SFC ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. TRAILING LOW STRATUS IS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER MS/AR/W TN. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTING
AND THE CHANCE FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AS A SUBTROPICAL FETCH EXTENDS
FROM THE EXITING EAST COAST TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE LINING UP
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SL.77

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DEEP CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK OR SO WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS REACHING THIS STRENGTH WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW, THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. AM NOT CERTAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY MEET
CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY HERE, BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ONE
SINCE WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITERIA. OVERALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, THE COLD NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DEFINITELY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER
AGAIN.

WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTER MOVES ACROSS TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OVERTAKE MOMENTUM MIXING,
TRANSLATING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH AND AREAS OF FROST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY 06-07Z (1AM-2AM CDT) TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z (7AM) TOMORROW MORNING. THUS, WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING
FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SFC FLOW TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THEN SHIFTS TO THE SW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DE-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND GOMEX PARALLEL
TO THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO 70 BUT AREAS
OVER NE AL/N GA MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR DAMMING
ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER NE AL.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE MERGING OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TWO WAVES IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE OF THE TWO WAVES AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS S GA/FL. DID REDUCE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE CLEARED THE TN VALLEY (AT LEAST ACCORDING THE
ECMWF), BUT HAVE LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY UNTIL ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A DEEPENING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. KEPT MAINLY SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED
FOR NOW, THOUGH SOME COOLING COULD BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IF MODEL
CONSENSUS ON A FRONT MOVEMENT PREVAILS IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 151619 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1119 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE POST FRONTAL RAIN THAT FELL EARLY THIS MORNING HAD SLEET AND A
FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN AS WELL. SOME HIGHER ELEVATED LOCATIONS
REPORTED FLURRIES. THE 7AM REDSTONE ARSENAL SOUNDING SHOWED A SLEET
PROFILE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB WINDS AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. THE POST FRONTAL MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WAS DRIVEN OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LAYER BRINGS LIGHT PRECIP IN
FROM THE NORTH. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADJUSTED THE CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TEMP/CLOUD COVER TRENDS. ADDED IN
SPRINKLES TO THE CENTRAL AND NE COUNTIES WITH FLURRIES ONLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND
REPORTS RECEIVED. AFTER THIS PRECIP MOVES OUT...SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT RELAX UNTIL
TONIGHT SO WIND AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE THROUGHOUT TODAY...WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW INSTANCES OF SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD...AS IT TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A CLEARING LINE NOW EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS RISING TO AND ABOVE VFR
IN THE 14-17Z TIMEFRAME...AS IT NEARS. NNW WINDS IN THE 15-25KT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KT IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NE AL IN THE POST
FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXITING SFC ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. TRAILING LOW STRATUS IS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER MS/AR/W TN. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTING
AND THE CHANCE FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AS A SUBTROPICAL FETCH EXTENDS
FROM THE EXITING EAST COAST TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE LINING UP
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SL.77

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DEEP CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK OR SO WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS REACHING THIS STRENGTH WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW, THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. AM NOT CERTAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY MEET
CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY HERE, BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ONE
SINCE WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITERIA. OVERALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, THE COLD NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DEFINITELY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER
AGAIN.

WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTER MOVES ACROSS TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OVERTAKE MOMENTUM MIXING,
TRANSLATING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH AND AREAS OF FROST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY 06-07Z (1AM-2AM CDT) TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z (7AM) TOMORROW MORNING. THUS, WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING
FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SFC FLOW TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THEN SHIFTS TO THE SW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DE-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND GOMEX PARALLEL
TO THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO 70 BUT AREAS
OVER NE AL/N GA MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR DAMMING
ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER NE AL.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE MERGING OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TWO WAVES IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE OF THE TWO WAVES AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS S GA/FL. DID REDUCE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE CLEARED THE TN VALLEY (AT LEAST ACCORDING THE
ECMWF), BUT HAVE LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY UNTIL ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A DEEPENING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. KEPT MAINLY SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED
FOR NOW, THOUGH SOME COOLING COULD BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IF MODEL
CONSENSUS ON A FRONT MOVEMENT PREVAILS IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 151200 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NE AL IN THE POST
FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXITING SFC ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. TRAILING LOW STRATUS IS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER MS/AR/W TN. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTING
AND THE CHANCE FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AS A SUBTROPICAL FETCH EXTENDS
FROM THE EXITING EAST COAST TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE LINING UP
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SL.77

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DEEP CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK OR SO WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS REACHING THIS STRENGTH WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW, THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. AM NOT CERTAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY MEET
CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY HERE, BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ONE
SINCE WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITERIA. OVERALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, THE COLD NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DEFINITELY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER
AGAIN.

WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTER MOVES ACROSS TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OVERTAKE MOMENTUM MIXING,
TRANSLATING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH AND AREAS OF FROST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY 06-07Z (1AM-2AM CDT) TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z (7AM) TOMORROW MORNING. THUS, WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING
FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SFC FLOW TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THEN SHIFTS TO THE SW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DE-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND GOMEX PARALLEL
TO THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO 70 BUT AREAS
OVER NE AL/N GA MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR DAMMING
ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER NE AL.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE MERGING OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TWO WAVES IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE OF THE TWO WAVES AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS S GA/FL. DID REDUCE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE CLEARED THE TN VALLEY (AT LEAST ACCORDING THE
ECMWF), BUT HAVE LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY UNTIL ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A DEEPENING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. KEPT MAINLY SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED
FOR NOW, THOUGH SOME COOLING COULD BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IF MODEL
CONSENSUS ON A FRONT MOVEMENT PREVAILS IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW INSTANCES OF SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD...AS IT TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A CLEARING LINE NOW EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS RISING TO AND ABOVE VFR
IN THE 14-17Z TIMEFRAME...AS IT NEARS. NNW WINDS IN THE 15-25KT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KT IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 151200 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NE AL IN THE POST
FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXITING SFC ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. TRAILING LOW STRATUS IS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER MS/AR/W TN. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTING
AND THE CHANCE FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AS A SUBTROPICAL FETCH EXTENDS
FROM THE EXITING EAST COAST TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE LINING UP
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SL.77

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DEEP CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK OR SO WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS REACHING THIS STRENGTH WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW, THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. AM NOT CERTAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY MEET
CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY HERE, BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ONE
SINCE WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITERIA. OVERALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, THE COLD NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DEFINITELY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER
AGAIN.

WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTER MOVES ACROSS TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OVERTAKE MOMENTUM MIXING,
TRANSLATING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH AND AREAS OF FROST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY 06-07Z (1AM-2AM CDT) TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z (7AM) TOMORROW MORNING. THUS, WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING
FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SFC FLOW TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THEN SHIFTS TO THE SW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DE-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND GOMEX PARALLEL
TO THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO 70 BUT AREAS
OVER NE AL/N GA MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR DAMMING
ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER NE AL.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE MERGING OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TWO WAVES IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE OF THE TWO WAVES AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS S GA/FL. DID REDUCE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE CLEARED THE TN VALLEY (AT LEAST ACCORDING THE
ECMWF), BUT HAVE LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY UNTIL ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A DEEPENING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. KEPT MAINLY SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED
FOR NOW, THOUGH SOME COOLING COULD BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IF MODEL
CONSENSUS ON A FRONT MOVEMENT PREVAILS IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW INSTANCES OF SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD...AS IT TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A CLEARING LINE NOW EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS RISING TO AND ABOVE VFR
IN THE 14-17Z TIMEFRAME...AS IT NEARS. NNW WINDS IN THE 15-25KT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KT IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 151145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE EAST AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE EASTWARD. EXPECT HIGHS TO
STRUGGLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S...WHILE 50S WILL BE IN STORE FOR EVERYONE FURTHER
SOUTH. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS
WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM THIS EVENING. FORECAST WIND GUSTS OF
35+ MPH FROM THE OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED...ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BE MORE
MARGINAL AROUND 20 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WHOLE CWA.

FOR TONIGHT...BASED OFF THE LATEST MAV/MET/EURO MOS GUIDANCE AND
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...A LATE SEASON FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA...AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
LESSEN AFTER 6 PM FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXPECT SOUTH OF I-85. THAT
AREA WILL HAVE 5-10 MPH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FROM
TODAY WILL BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
OCCUR. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH IN SHELTERED AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE PREVALENT. FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING APPEAR PROBABLE. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA EXPECT
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY 30-33 DEGREES. THE FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
MARGINAL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT. AND WHILE NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING...PLACES THAT ARE AT 32-33 DEGREES WILL PROBABLY
SEE AREAS OF FROST...WHICH CAN BE JUST AS DAMAGING TO VEGETATION.
SO RATHER THAN GETTING CUTE WITH A FREEZE WARNING NORTH AND FROST
ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SINCE NEARLY EVERYONE IS
FORECAST TO HIT FREEZING OR BELOW.

IF THIS FREEZE ACTUALLY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE RECORD SETTING IN
TERMS OF HOW LATE IT IS IN THE SPRING SEASON. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 8 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND TOP OUT IN THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE A
SECOND FREEZE AFTER TONIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

77/GLEASON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STARTS OFF FAIRLY AGREEABLE. AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS DEVELOPING WEST WHILE HEIGHTS RISE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL BUT WE CAN EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROF PUSHES OUR WAY AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A DISSIPATING
STAGE AS UPPER HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE INTO SUNDAY.

MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF
TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. INSTALLED POPS IN THE 20-45 RANGE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPWARD MOTION AND OVERALL LIFT
ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WHILE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS MUCH BELOW
THE PREVIOUS FEW SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TOO
HIGH OR EXCESSIVE THIS TIME OUT.

DO NOT HAVE POPS MENTIONED SUNDAY OR MONDAY AT THIS TIME. THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS DO NOT AGREE IN THIS TIME FRAME AT ALL. SO
EXPECT SOME ALTERATIONS HERE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOWARD 18Z AS CIGS RISE AND CLEARING
OCCURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

87

&&

.CLIMATE...

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD LOWS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

CURRENT FORECAST AND RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR BIRMINGHAM AND
MONTGOMERY FOR APRIL 16TH...

                    BIRMINGHAM              MONTGOMERY

CURRENT FORECAST:   31                      32
RECORD:             32 (1950/1962/1983)     36 (1950/2008)

IF A FREEZE OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT BIRMINGHAM...IT WOULD BE
THE LATEST FREEZE DATE SINCE 1997...RANKING 6TH AMONG HISTORICAL
LAST FREEZES SINCE 1897.

IF A FREEZE OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT MONTGOMERY...IT WOULD SET
THE RECORD FOR THE LATEST FREEZE DATE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

AVERAGE AND HISTORICAL LAST FREEZES FOR BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY...

                            BIRMINGHAM      MONTGOMERY

AVERAGE LAST FREEZE:        MARCH 25        MARCH  8

HISTORICAL LAST FREEZES:    APRIL 23 1986   APRIL 13 1940
                            APRIL 22 1993   APRIL  9 2000
                            APRIL 21 1953   APRIL  8 2009
                            APRIL 21 1983   APRIL  7 1950
                            APRIL 18 1997   APRIL  6 1891
                            APRIL 16 1950   APRIL  4 1987
                            APRIL 16 1962   APRIL  2 1881

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$









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